The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis - Could Gemini 3.0 and Claude 4.5 Be Coming Soon?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Today on the AI Daily Brief, the AI Rubber Mill really wants us to get Gemini 3 or Claude 4.5. Is it possible that we might see that in the next few weeks? Before that in the headlines, one prominent investor thinks that AI could shrink public companies by a fifth. The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI. All right, friends, quick announcements before we dive in. First of all, thank you to today's sponsors, KPMG, robots and pencils, Notion, and Agency.org. To get an ad-free version of the show, go to patreon.com slash AI Daily Brief. And a quick note for those of you who have applied for the account management role that I mentioned on the show, I think maybe last Wednesday.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Appreciate you all sending your videos of your AI workflows. It's a great way to get to know you. Much, much better, I will say, than a resume and a cover letter. We're going to be trying to dig into all of that and get back to folks, at least preliminarily next week, so look out for that. With all that said, let's get into these comments from the CIO of Ali Ans. Welcome back to the AI Daily Brief Headlines edition, all the daily AI news you need in around five minutes. We kick off today with a big pronouncement from the CIO of Alian's global investors,

Starting point is 00:01:09 who believes that AI could usher in a period of digital Darwinism. Speaking at the Bloomberg Investment Management Summit in London, Virginie Mezzanouv warned that this decade is going to be very, very brutal for public companies that fail to adapt. She said, AI is both a threat and a huge opportunity. It's very hard to make a forecast, but 15 to point. 20% of companies listed today could not be here in five years' time. Now, it is worth noting that that isn't actually wildly above the norm for the mortality rate

Starting point is 00:01:37 of publicly listed companies, but you get the sense certainly that she is talking about major well-known companies rather than the normal attrition of smaller forgettable firms. And frankly, her comments are more useful as a check-in and where we are in the AI adoption narrative, i.e., although some headlines are still blaring that AI has questionable return on investment based on even more questionable studies, professional investors like this at the very top of their industry now see AI adoption as a key marker of a firm's ability to survive the decade. To take just one example, Bloomberg also published a piece this week called the AI threat to Europe's most valuable software company. The article is about

Starting point is 00:02:11 SAP and its challenges to adapt to changing technology paradigms. The gist of it is that while it has finally made a successful transition to cloud, after years of struggling with that, the company's growth in the cloud area is expected to diminish significantly after 2027, meaning that it's going to have to transition to new types of products like AI products to maintain its current trajectory. And it's pretty clear that the CIO is again not talking about the normal base churn of low to midcap companies, but about these sort of more dramatic changes. Although speaking of SAP, OpenAI is partnering with SAP to build sovereign AI for Germany. The initiative will see OpenAI deploy their technology on SAP servers that are physically located

Starting point is 00:02:53 in Germany. OpenAI wrote, the collaboration will enable millions of public sector employees to use AI safely and responsibly while meeting strict data sovereignty, security, and legal standards. The infrastructure will use Microsoft's Azure hardware, but will be set up to fit the requirements of the German government. OpenAI also said that the project would serve as a cornerstone for developing customized public sector applications and integrating AI agents directly into existing workflows to automate and improve processes such as records management and administrative data analysis. Now, speaking of questions of sovereign AI and global AI leadership, Global AI governance was up for debate at this week's meeting of the United Nations.

Starting point is 00:03:30 The session opened on Wednesday with Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez saying, the question is not whether AI will influence international peace and security, but how we will shape its influence used responsibly. AI can strengthen prevention and protection, anticipating food insecurity and displacement, supporting demining, helping identify potential outbreaks of violence and so much more. But without guardrails, it can also be weaponized. Now, heading into this meeting,

Starting point is 00:03:51 a group of about 200 public figures, including former world leaders and Nobel Prize laureates, had called for binding international red lines, proposing an international agreement, defining what AI should never be allowed to do. To me, the response to this letter signified just how much this group is frankly talking to themselves right now. Now, part of that is AI-specific. I think that basically all of these open letters and calls for pauses have done nothing but actually diminish the voice of those people who are calling for better guardrails around

Starting point is 00:04:17 AI. But of course, this is also caught up in broader shifts in international politics and U.S. leadership as well. Speaking of which, White House Office of Science and Technology Director Michael Kratios dismissed the notion that the UN should play any role in governing AI out of hand. He said in incredibly clear terms, we totally reject all efforts by international bodies to assert centralized control and global governance of AI. We believe that the responsible diffusion of AI will help pave the way to a flourishing future,

Starting point is 00:04:44 one of increased productivity, empowered individuals, and revolutions in scientific advancement. The path to this world is not found in bureaucratic management, but in the freedom and duty of citizens, the prudence and cooperation of statesmen, and the independence and sovereignty of nations. We believe broad over-regulation incentivizes centralization, stifles innovation, and increases the danger that these tools will be used for tyranny and conquest. Ideological fixations on social equity, climate catastropheism, and so-called existential risk are dangers to progress and obstacles to responsibly harnessing this technology as an extension of human ingenuity and capacities. Could not be clear that, like basically everything else when it comes to the UN and global governance,

Starting point is 00:05:20 the current U.S. administration is completely uninterested in any sort of actual cooperation with those groups. Now, as we've talked about in the absence of government-level regulation, the private sector has been exploring its own ways to deal with some of the issues that come with AI. On that note, Cloudflare has introduced a new addition to Robots.t.comt to limit AI crawlers. Of course, as you've heard over recent months, Cloudfair have been raising the alarm about what they perceive as the problem of AI driving down traffic to websites. They've made some big proposals like a new fee market to charge AI crawlers to scrape websites, they've also taken some aggressive high-profile moves like blocking crawlers without customer approval, and calling out

Starting point is 00:05:56 perplexity specifically as a bad actor. Now, their latest proposal goes back to basics with a new addition to robots.txte, which is a file on every website that tells crawlers whether or not they're allowed to scrape data. They're calling their change the Cloudfair content signals policy. The default format for Robots.t.tXT doesn't differentiate between different types of crawlers. Cloudflare then has now proposed three categories, search, AI inputs, and AI training, which can each be toggled independently. In explaining the logic behind the traffic, Cloudflare noted that they expect bot traffic on the internet to exceed human traffic by 2029. And by 2031, they expect that bot traffic will surpass the current level of human traffic. The rise is entirely due to AI search engines who tap website data but don't drive any human traffic or produce ad revenue.

Starting point is 00:06:38 Cloudflare writes, the de facto default of the internet permitted this. The norm has been that your data would be ingested, but then you, the creator of that content would get something in return, either referral traffic that you could monetize or at a minimum some sort of attribution that cited you as the author. They continued writing, That world has changed. That scraped content is now sometimes used to economically compete against the original creator. It's left many with an impossible choice. Do you lock down access to your content and data or accept the reality of fewer referrals and minimal attribution? If the only recourse is the former, the open transmission of ideas on the web is harmed and newer entrance to the AI

Starting point is 00:07:11 ecosystem are put at an unfair disadvantage for their efforts to train new models. Now, many outlets recognize that this change is fairly squarely aimed at taking on Google. While the changing nature of internet traffic is broadly due to the rise of AI search, Google's AI overviews have, of course, been singled out as a major culprit. Earlier this month, the publisher of Rolling Stone, among other magazines, sued Google over AI overviews, with the core of their claim being that Google provided no way for websites to agree to allow search indexing without also agreeing to their data being used in AI overviews. exactly the sort of differentiation that Cloudflare is trying to provide with this new toggle.

Starting point is 00:07:45 Now, on the one hand, this is a real debate, but on the other, not everyone is super happy with Cloudflare appointing themselves as the guardian of this particular issue. Jeff Jarvis, for example, wrote, Who died and made Cloudflare cop of AI? Now, one more very cool one from Google, regardless of your stance on AI overviews, Google has plugged their massive trove of publicly available data into the AI world using MCP. Back in 2018, Google launched a project called the Data Commons with the goal of coelating all the publicly available data in the world. The archive includes government surveys, local administrative data, and statistics from global bodies like the UN.

Starting point is 00:08:19 However, the dataset was sprawling, making it difficult to query unless you knew exactly what you were looking for. Google figured that this was a perfect problem to solve with AI, writing, the release marks a major milestone in making all of Data Commons vast and interconnected public datasets instantly accessible and actionable for AI developers, data scientists and organizations worldwide. This is the type of very cool use case that standard infrastructure can enable, and so I will be excited to see what developers do with this new trove of information that they now have easier access to. For now that that is going to do it for today's AI Daily Brief

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Starting point is 00:11:46 Visit agency.org to explore use cases now. That's agn-tcY.org. Welcome back to the AI Daily Brief. Some days on this show, we get quite heady, big new ideas, research papers, technical innovations that could change the world. Other days were super practical. I've got an episode coming up about how to avoid the scourge of work slop. And then other days, we are just digging into the rumor mill, checking in on the vibes, and understanding the state of competition among the big labs.

Starting point is 00:12:18 Today is one of those days, and this is something that's been brewing for a little while. If you have been watching the sentiment closely, it feels like there was a big shift around Anthropic just over the last month or so. Anthropic bullposter account Superdario tweeted, Word is Anthropic team at offsite this week trying to regroup and get back on feet after inference stumbles and launch delays, dedicated to sticking the landing. Down but not out, still bullish. Chubby writes, it's strange how the vibe is turning against Claude and increasingly positive towards OpenAI and chat GPT. The former bubble darling Anthropic is increasingly losing favor. A couple of days ago, Elon Musk himself waited in saying winning was never in

Starting point is 00:12:58 a set of possible outcomes for Anthropic, leading to post like this one from Mark Kretschman, who wrote, it's over for Anthropic, and I'm not going to miss them. So what is going on? Why is Anthropic in this low ebb right now when it comes to reputation? There are a couple of reasons. Anthropic has had, by any estimation, an absolutely unbelievable year. The company grew revenue from about a billion to $5 billion, and for most of the year really cemented and confirmed its dominance as the coding model of choice. That dominance, however, looked a little bit rocky towards the end of the summer. People were complaining left and right that they believed Anthropic was throttling Claude in ways that were making it really hard to use.

Starting point is 00:13:38 Now, Anthropic has said over and over again that they were not intentionally throttling their models and that they would never do that, but they did come out with a sort of Mayaculpa explanation of what was going on. Summing up the problem, Unite AI writes, for the past six weeks, Claude users have been losing their minds. Starting in early August, complaints started flooding Reddit X and developer forums. The issues were all over the place. Code that used to work perfectly was suddenly broken. Claude would claim it made changes to files when it didn't. Random tire Chinese characters appeared in English responses. Instructions were being completely ignored. The same prompt was giving wildly different quality responses, and

Starting point is 00:14:12 Claude user said it felt lobotomized compared to before. The complaints got so bad that by late August people were convinced Anthropic was secretly throttling Claude to save money. Conspiracy theories were everywhere. Maybe they were reducing quality during peak hours. Maybe they'd quietly swapped in a cheaper model. maybe this was intentional degradation to manage server costs. Turns out that the problem, they say, was not any sort of intentional throttling, but actual bugs that, as they put it, intermittently degraded responses from Claude. Now, we went through this on a previous show, but for our purposes today, the important point is that there were some big performance issues that created an opening,

Starting point is 00:14:47 and it's an opening that OpenAI seized. GPT5 was very clearly, from the moment it was launched, aimed at winning back some of the market share around agenetic coding that OpenAI had lost to Anthropic over the previous year. And while initially, the response to the model was largely drowned out by all the issues surrounding weird choices like the deprecation of old models, issues with the model selector, etc., people slowly started to come around largely because of GPT5's coding capabilities and codecs more specifically. SLO developer Hater on Twitter writes, GPT5 Codex is the best product launch of Q4 2025. It follows a new.

Starting point is 00:15:23 instructions, sticks to the guidelines, doesn't overcomplicate, and produces optimized code. If you're into vibe coding, it might not be for you, but if you know what you want, it beats ClaudeCode in every way. Chong Yu points out that Codex has more GitHub stars than Cloud code, even though it was released a month and a half later. More generally, it's just clear that for the first time, Claude has some real competition when it comes to being the default code model, and that has gotten worse with the release of GPT5 Codex. So a big part of the vibe issues are just simply the fact that Anthropics model performance was degraded for a little while, right at the time when one of their fiercest competitors was releasing something that was for the first time

Starting point is 00:15:58 actually competitive for that use case. Now, there also have been some other issues. The company's leadership has been standing on principle vis-à-vis Donald Trump. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that CEO Dario Amadeh is, in their words, openly challenging President Trump's hands-off AI strategy. He explicitly did not come to that White House dinner for AI leaders, and that's put him in the company directly at odds with AIsar David Sacks, who has been taking pot shots at Dario and Anthropic for months now. Still, while that creates political headwinds that are a pain in the butt for them to deal with, I don't think that's actually at the core of any of these issues of the vibe ebb they are currently experiencing.

Starting point is 00:16:33 I certainly think more at issue is self-inflicted wounds around some of the things that Dario has chosen to speak about in recent interviews. Here's, for example, what he said recently about open source. I don't think open source works the same way in AI that it has worked in other areas. Primarily because with open source, you can see the, you know, you can see the source. code of the model. Here, we can't see inside the model. You know, it's often called open weights instead of open source to kind of distinguish that. But a lot of the benefits, which is that many people can work on it, that it's kind of additive, it doesn't quite work in the same way. So, you know, I've actually always seen it as a red herring. When I see it, when I see a new model

Starting point is 00:17:13 come out, I don't care whether it's open source or not. Like if we talk about deep seek, I don't think it mattered that deep seek is open source. I think I ask, is it a good model? Is it better than us at, you know, the things that we, that's the only thing that I care about. It actually, it actually doesn't, doesn't matter either way. Because ultimately, you have to, you have to host it on the cloud. The people who host it on the cloud do inference. These are big models. They're hard to do inference on.

Starting point is 00:17:39 And conversely, many of the things that you can do when you see the weights, you know, we're increasingly offering on clouds where you can fine tune the model. You can, you know, we're even looking at at, at ways. to, you know, to kind of, you know, investigate the activations of the model as part of like an interpretability interface. We did some little things around steering last time. So I think it's the wrong access to think in terms of when I think about competition, I think about like which models are good at the task that we do. I think open source is actually a red herring. So that may just be Dario thinking from first principles, but it was not received in an open

Starting point is 00:18:19 and thoughtful way. Instead, the much more common response was summed up by this one from Mark Kretschman who wrote, Dario Amade is showing his true face, anti-competitive Dumer with a love of regulation to control AI. For that reason, he hates open source AI. Anthropic has always been like that, but many of you are late to notice it. Now, even people that weren't that caustic, like Cyril Zaka from Hugging Face said, rare miss from Dario, open source AI has been one of the most important drivers of innovation and optimizations in the field. Quite disappointing take. There was a lot of more at various ends of that spectrum, but waiting into this pond at this moment when they were already dealing with some narrative issues was sort of just adding onto a fire that was already

Starting point is 00:18:57 burning. Now the counter-narrative to all of this comes from the San Al-Gaib who writes, what's up with the whole anthropic doomer sentiment today? They will drop the best coding model once again and keep growing at 10x a year. And I do think that it's always worth asking when there is some weird vibe shift, how much it has to do with people just not having something else to talk about and asking the question, what have you done lately for me? And on that front, the rumor mill has been swirling for some time now that we were about to get a Claude 4.5 release. Now, if Super Dario is right, maybe that release has been delayed and that's part of the issue here. But there is certainly also a sentiment that once that happens, there are going to be a whole lot of people who are willing to forgive any issues they had in the past if the model actually is as good as people hope it will be.

Starting point is 00:19:39 Another positive thing that Anthropic has going for them is the Keep Thinking brand campaign they launched last week, which is certainly the highest quality traditional sort of brand messaging that we've seen from any AI company so far. Former White House AI leader Dean Ball writes, I mean it is the absolute highest compliment when I say that of all the AI companies today, none remind me more of early 2000's Apple than Anthropic. Attached to that tweet was the core asset of that Keep Thinking campaign. And the other interesting note is that while the enfranchised chattering classes may be on a comparative low ebb with their relationship with Claude, the models themselves are potentially getting their biggest audience ever with the

Starting point is 00:20:13 new deal recently announced by Microsoft. We had reported early as this started to leak, but this week, Sotianadella and Microsoft made it official, tweeting, today we're expanding Microsoft 365 copilot with the addition of Anthropics Claude models. Customers can now use both OpenAI and Claude, starting in research and co-pilot studio and coming to more experiences soon. Our multimodal approach goes beyond choice. It's all about bringing the best AI from across the industry to co-pilot, tune for work, and tailored for every business. Ultimately, I tend to be in the Lassan camp here. I think we are at a period where Anthropic is shaking off the dust of degraded performance, which unfortunately came at a moment when OpenAI became a realistic competitor for coding applications for the first

Starting point is 00:20:53 time in more than a year. But Foundation model companies always look worse when one of their competitors has recently released a model and they haven't. All I think it's probably going to take to get people back on board is an X-generation clawed model, assuming that it actually is better on the coding front than the tools we have access to today. Now, expanding this into a little bit of a roundup of where the labs are in general, we've heard about Anthropic at OpenAI. Recently, I also told the story of that town hall, where Satchinadella of Microsoft said that he was haunted at the prospect of Microsoft not surviving this AI era. I think the interesting thing about Microsoft right now is that they have clearly firmly and

Starting point is 00:21:27 finally broken off their trajectory from their first big AI partner of this era in Open AI. I don't think it's some big dramatic thing. I just think that they're taking a different path, and increasingly that path is coming into view. Writing about why Microsoft had passed on all of this Stargate buildout, Reuters wrote, through late 2024, Microsoft, then OpenAI's exclusive cloud partner, was scouting new data center sites for OpenAI. As OpenAI's compute appetite ballooned, Microsoft began to re-evaluate all the

Starting point is 00:21:53 properties it was leasing to find space for expansion. Any property that wasn't in prominent locations or didn't have a solid power contract locked in was put on the chopping block. Oracle and SoftBank stepped into source sites with over one gigawatt requirements. Microsoft, meanwhile, kept expanding at the edges of existing regions, avoiding one gargantuan bet. They continue, Microsoft now favors clusters sized for long-term reuse with stage GPU refreshes, distributed across regions to support inference as much as training. Here's Microsoft's bet. The future of AI isn't another colossal supercomputer in one location. It's a fast distributed web of AI power serving billions of people globally. The winning AI platform will be the one that delivers a fast, seamless experience to users no matter

Starting point is 00:22:32 where they are in the world. They conclude Microsoft was richly rewarded for taking the first risky open AI bet. The billion dollar question now is whether playing it safe is an equally smart move. The point is that they've sort of locked in their strategy now and only time will tell how smart it is. Meanwhile, the company with the rosiest vibes right now, you've got to think is Google. And when it comes to the rumor mill, as interested as people are in Claude 4.5, the thing that they're really excited about and really hoping for soon is Gemini 3. Now, Gemini 3 launch rumors have been around since July, so I think it's dangerous to put too much of a stake in anything you see there, but it is notable that they have picked up again in recent days.

Starting point is 00:23:10 Leo at synthwave writes, good news. Gemini 3's launch target has been brought forward to early October from mid-October. Only a couple of weeks left now. Chebby writes, the rumor mill is buzzing. Apparently the Gemini 3 release will be brought forward to early October starting next week. Dan Mack writes, Gemini 3 is coming as we know. What we don't know is how good it will be. My prediction is that it will clearly be the best AI model available, both Vives and benchmark-based. Google has the momentum now, and I don't think anyone is stopping that train. Now it's a rolling. J.K. responded, to be honest, predictions like this make me think of the ecosystem ripple effects. If Gemini 3 pulls ahead on vibes and performance, it won't be just about

Starting point is 00:23:44 the model, but how quickly developers can build on top of it without the friction of fragmented APIs or inconsistent scaling that plagued earlier iterations. The Gemini 3 rumors reached a fever pitch when Google's Kath Korovic tweeted, y'all I'm very excited for next week, but that was, as it turns out, about Google's AI coding tool, which is getting a new release next week, or in fact, as Kath responded on one post, more than one. In other words, it seems unlikely to me that we're getting Gemini 3 next week, but we are going to see some updates around Google's coding agent. Still, the point is that compared to some of these other platforms, the vibes around Google right now are extremely positive. Lysa Al-Gaib again writes, I'm positive that Gemini 3 will be

Starting point is 00:24:21 my favorite launch of the year. There's still hope. GPD 5 and Cloud 4 were disappointing. There has even recently been some amount of chatter, not necessarily in our little tech or enterprise corner of the world, but on Wall Street, about Amazon and AI. Well, Tha Matica recently tweeted, Amazon is underrated. Amazon has one of the best partnerships in the AI industry. Anthropic plus AWS. As Anthropics demand scale, so does AWS. It's completely fair to expect AWS to ramp progressively back into 20 plus percent growth rates in the coming quarters. Analyst at Wells Fargo also recently shared a similar analysis. In a note to clients this week, those analysts pointed to, quote, increased conviction in AWS revenue acceleration following detailed anthropic

Starting point is 00:25:02 contribution in cloud market analysis. So that's where we are. The Rue of sees or at least hopes we get a Gemini 3 or at Anthropic 4.5 in the coming weeks. The vibes on Anthropic are on a low ebb, but certainly not in a way that another good model release couldn't change. Microsoft is off charting its own path. Amazon is back in the conversation for the first time in a while, and Google right now has the sort of immaculate vibes that they could have only hoped for just 18 months ago. That's the state of lab competition as I see it.

Starting point is 00:25:28 Obviously, this is very fast changing. Mostly I think people just want new toys, and I certainly can't blame them for that. For now, though, that's going to do it for today's AI Daily Brief. you listening or watching as always and until next time peace

The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis - Could Gemini 3.0 and Claude 4.5 Be Coming Soon?

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