The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2022 Cold Takes Revisited

Episode Date: May 17, 2023

Everyone in the sports yammering business is going to have a prediction or two go wrong. Not everyone, however, is going to try to learn from those predictions gone wrong. Guess TAFS is just built different. Robert Mays and Nate Tice trot out their cold takes from 2022, and sort through what they can learn from them, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThis episode is brought to you by...BetterHelp: Visit BetterHelp.com/MAYS today to get 10% off your first monthCold takes included...The Bills are the best team in footballThe Eagles do NOT have a top-10 offenseThe Packers have a top-five offenseThe Colts have a top-10 offenseThe Broncos have a top-10 offenseThe Buccaneers have a top-five offense and are NFC Championship Game qualityThe Cowboys will miss the playoffsThe 49ers will miss the playoffs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome. It's the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing very well.

We have a thunderstorm here in Las Vegas today. That sounds nice. Did not know that was a possibility here until I moved here, obviously. But last year in July, we had like three straight weeks where it was almost like Florida, you know, where they have the three o'clock, four o'clock showers every day. I don't know it. I know you do. I know you did.

It reached to the choir there. But the Vegas, yeah, last summer, we had like three straight weeks where we get like an hour, half hour thunderstorm and they would just go away. But it was really nice because it'd break up the 110 degree hell heat for about an hour or two hours. You sit outside and hear the rain as a Midwestner. I love it. I love a good thunderstorm.

So yeah, interesting weather we have in Las Vegas in the valley right now. We're about 12 days from my wedding, which means we're two days from the 10-day forecast being relevant. and you're looking at it every 20 seconds. It's not outdoors. It's indoors outdoors. We can close the roof. So we've protected ourselves from the downside effects, but I still am going to obsessively check

it like every 20 minutes as soon as I can because I've wanted to be sunny. So it's going to be a lot of weather prominence in my life here over the next week and a half. For mine, because COVID pushed it back twice. It went from a May wedding to like a February wedding to find it like the following February to August. And I was like, well, none of my sport, my football people are coming to this wedding. I just got to accept that because it's training camp. But that my weather check, because I knew it would be sunny in Las Vegas in August. It was, please be under 100.

Please be under 100. I think it was 98 on my wedding day. So it's like, that's, it wasn't bad. I remember walking around that day. It was fine. It was just fine. 98 there is. With a little shade.

It's better than 80 and rainy on Memorial Day weekend here. So we'll see how that goes. Fingers crossed. Fingers crossed for you. Speaking of storm clouds, we're going to go back here and revisit some. of our takes from last year. This was something that we wanted to do this summer, just to go back and look at some of the things we thought before last season and some of the things we got wrong and why we got them wrong. I think this is an instructive exercise. I think it's really useful because we want to

learn. We want to learn how we can see this stuff better and maybe how we should apply some of this thinking to our 2023 predictions when we eventually get there. So we're in the middle of May. It feels like a perfect time to do a little bit of looking back as we try to start looking forward. So we're going to go through about eight preseason takes thoughts predictions that we had last August, September or so. Our producer Michael Beller did a wonderful job of combing through about 10 to 15 preseason podcasts and looking for all the shit we got wrong, which thanks, Speller. Yeah, thank you.

Really appreciate the work there. I'm sure you didn't delight in that at all. So thank you very much for putting that in. But we've got about four or so each. And there are a couple that, you know, I think that we were on the same page about. And I think it's going to be really helpful and illustrative to kind of look at these and dig into them a little bit. Yeah. Well, I think you, this is the only way to get better.

Yeah, I learned from where you fail. I think as anyone in life, not just athletes, not just podcasters talking about athletes and coaches and everything. I think anything in life, this is how you get better. You learn from your mistakes. You learn from your losses. I think even guys were, I look at this a lot for prospects. Why did I miss him? And sometimes it just you shrug your shoulders and go, the principal Skinner mean,

and go, yeah, no, everybody else was wrong. I was right. God dang it. That's why I was right. But sometimes it's going like, no, I was caught my ways or I had my head in the sand about this. I ignored that noise and I shouldn't have. And I think that's, I love doing this for any facet of life, but especially at this. This is, uh, this is going to be a fun exercise and I'm glad we're doing it.

Let's do one of mine from beginning of the season. And I think I probably said this several times before the year started. I probably said it after they dismantled the Rams. in week one, but I thought the bills were the best team in football. Just top to bottom, I thought that they would be the best team. And I think what drove some of that thinking is when you looked at the roster, there just weren't many holes. They really didn't have that many weaknesses.

Even if you were a little bit concerned about some of the pieces along the offensive line, I understood what they did by adding Roger Saffel just to add a little bit of attitudes and run blocking physicality to that group that they were potentially missing. You know, Ryan Bates had that really strong back half of the season. They matched the offer that the Bears gave him. So I felt better about their interior than I had. had in a while. Gabe Davis was coming off the monster game against the Chiefs. The last time we saw him, he scored four touchdowns. And he looked like a legitimate number two option. You go back

to fantasy drafts last July, August. He was going as like wide receiver 15. I got yelled. I did the breakout player article and I got like more mentions than any other player in that article was about not having Gabe Davis as my breakout receiver. And I couldn't believe. And I was like, yeah, I think he's going to be fine. But people, we were, the consensus was extremely high on what Gabe Davis was going to be in 2022. So we thought that he was going to be that number two receiver that they needed within that offense. A lot of people were picking Josh Allen to be the preseason MVP.

And even if you look at the defense, you know, the couple holes that we might have ascribed to them coming into the year, I thought they aggressively filled them. They went out and took that swing on Von Miller to kind of be the last thing to put them over the top in their front four. They had a bunch of rotational pieces. It's like, all right, we got year two of Greg Rousseau. What can he be if he takes a step forward? Boogie Basham, same sort of deal.

They traded up for Kyriehler. them in the draft. They went and got James Cook to be that skill set within the offense that we didn't think that they had otherwise. And it's like, okay, show me the weakness. Show me on the depth chart. You circle it for me going into the year. Plus, they have superstar level players at some of these really important positions.

And you watch them in week one, it's like, holy shit. And then the Rams ended up not being the team that we thought they were. And then over the course of the year, even though the bills were a very good team, which they absolutely were. Bellard pointed out something I think that's really smart when we were talking this afternoon. Even if they had a really nice season, when we got to the end of the year, I think all of us kind of agreed heading into championship weekend. These are the four best teams. The Bengals, the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Niners are the four best teams. The bills should have lost

that game to Cincinnati. They're not as good as this Bengals team is right now. And that's a far cry to being the resounding preseason Super Bowl favorite. So where do we think I was wrong? What was the missteps in that sort of thinking? The Von Miller move was to, not say he was the wrong, was to identify or get onto this team what this team needs. And that's more guys that are true needle movers, guys that are truly game changers, the queens on the chess board, both on offense and defense. I think where everybody's in agreement, Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs are elite at their positions. What else he got? You know, what else he got on offense? And then you look at a defense, I am guilty of this as well. I, because I even after the Von

Miller injury, so this is like a midseason cold takeout. I guess. I was saying the defense will be fine. They got so much soundness on that defense. They have answers at every spot. They'll be okay. And again, when you don't have those queens on the chessboard, the needle movers, the guys that change the game, change the math, the clutch, the closers, as Tony Romo will call them. It really does make a difference when it gets into nut crunch time, when it gets the end of the season and into the playoffs. That's where the importance of having those queens on the chess board. And I think that's where I was with you. I was high on the bills, even if I maybe I had the chiefs as my Super Bowl champ, but I still was high on the bills. It wasn't like I was dogging them. I think they were one of the highest Super Bowl favorites in recent memory as far as preseason.

I think this is a consensus take. But it was, you can really see the difference between being fine across the board or maybe the difference of having true elite players or true very good players at a couple spots and then being average at other spots as well. You can see that it's just the math changes of not, the math difference of not having those true elite players or true, very good players on both sides of the ball. I think that's exactly right. And we talked about this a little bit when we were discussing the Lions draft and some of the dangers. I'm thinking, oh, we're so close.

You know, we just need these few complementary pieces. Your needs and the quality of the players that you have at some of these really important positions can change quickly. And that's what happened with the bills at their past catching spot specifically. Gabe Davis had 438 catches last year. That's it. 48 catches for 836 yards. Isn't that crazy? I thought he had in the 70s somewhere.

Wow. He had 48 receptions. last year. And Dawson Knox, you know, was not a high volume pass catcher for them. He didn't have the year that many people expected him to. So the past catchers just didn't emerge. They didn't have that secondary option. Enter Dalton Kincaade. I think that's why there was a lot of urgency to add a piece like that this off season. And then you go to the defense and they just didn't have that many needle movers. You know, losing Micahe high two games into the year, I think that's a huge deal. Jordan Poir was hurt for a huge chunk of the season. So before the year, you're thinking,

oh, they have the best safety tandem in the league. And that evaporates. And obviously, Marhamelan gets hurt later in the year. So he had come in and stepped in as the starter. So you're getting even deeper into your safety depth. But I think what really affected them the most is that they just didn't have that many needle movers up front. Greg Rousseau had a nice season. He had a lot of really good stretches.

He started off super strong. It was first four or five games of the year with him and Von Miller. He looked really good. But then Von Miller gets hurt 11 games into the season. You really don't have any plus pass rushers in that group outside of Rousseau. Ed Oliver just has never become that guy. past rusher. He had 37 pressures for Ed Oliver. That tied Malik Collins. Like in the 30 in the 30s. 30s. He had less than Ossa Deguizua.

Ed Oliver did. Really? Pressures last year. Yes. And Oliver is supposed to be the ace of He was a top time pick. Yeah. And so they didn't have any guys in the interior doing that sort of damage. Jordan Phillips had that monster game against the Rams in week one. I was like, holy shit. If he's going to play like this, Rousseau's had a fantastic game in week one. Von Miller was doing work, and we realized what the Rams offensive line eventually became over the rest of the season.

But I think that was part of the issue. And we're going to see a slightly different defense from them this year. You have Sean McDermott coming in to call the defensive plays with Leslie Frazier no longer there as the defensive coordinator. But that lack of needle movers and that importance, I think, I and a lot of other people place on just saying there are no weaknesses to this team. right, but where are the strong, strong strengths? Like, where are the high points of the roster?

And I think that we overlooked that a little bit, maybe heading into the season, or at least I did. And if I was going to take a lesson from this, that's what it would be. If I'm looking at a roster, it's not making sure you have a competent player at every position. That's extremely helpful. Like, that is important, especially at certain position groups. But at others, I think you need those true difference makers along the defensive line at your past catching spots.

And I think we ascribe some development and some projection to the second year players on the defensive line, some of the younger guys the bills had on the defensive line and Gabe Davis. And none of that really came to fruition outside of Rousseau taking a step forward. Right. And I think we use this term more of for quarterbacks is go get you a bucket. Sometimes other positions can go get you a bucket too. You know, a receiver can go get you a bucket, go dunk on a guy, a runner back can make five guys miss and break tackles and score a touchdown. defensive guys can get buckets too. They can make plays for you.

You're not probably going to call a crazy defensive call, especially the bill's system. So sometimes those players got to go do something. Matt Milano does. He does it a lot. And that's why he's a very good player and an all pro finally last year and deservedly so. But who else was doing that? Who else was making plays? And that's the difference.

It's like being a fish on defense is different to being explosive on defense. We usually use those terms for offense, but it's the same thing. What were those big plays coming? Ed Oliver is a gap shooter type. And that's fine. And there has a place to be a gap shooter and jump the snap count and get up field. But if you have no one else to help you out with it, to make a play off of that, who cares if you're three yards upfield and that you beat the guard off the snap of the ball?

You're not making a play. You're not disrupting anything. You're not changing anything. So I think my line has been the soccer line of can they do in a cold rainy night in stoke? And that's about the offense. And that's the whole identity change, which I'm sure we'll be talking about for the next couple months because I think it is super interesting what they're doing on offense. But speaking of the defense, and that's supposed to be the strength of their, strength of their team

overall, not have any weaknesses, but not having that true ace, not having that true, go get you a bucket guy. Did matter. I mean, after the Vaugh-Miller injury, their defense's success rate, they went from like the top two, top three unit to 12th, 13th unit. It's just not. The corners weren't that good last year. You know, Trey White came into the league. Week 12, he was working back from injury. Just never really came together with those. guys who were supposed to be the difference makers. Yep. Which is tough.

Rookie corner is really hard. 100%. But that's what happens. It's like, oh, you drop that guy into it. Then what that can they be. And we get a little over excited. The we I'm using is me. I get a little over excited.

And I think it leads to thoughts like what we had. So again, something I think we can absolutely learn from. All right. Next one, I'm putting you, putting your feet to the fire here. You said the Eagles in our top 10 offense show last year were not going to be a top 10 offense. What do you have to say for yourself? A little bit of oversight by myself and thinking, oh, and not realizing, oh, yeah, they have an awesome offense aligned and really good weapons.

And it doesn't matter who's playing quarterback, not to like knock Jalen Hertz yet, but it doesn't matter who's playing quarterback. That's a really good system to have a really good offense. And sure enough, Jalen Hertz took anyway, any way you shape it, he took a step forward. Some people think he took a huge leap forward. I personally think he took a step or two forward, but he did get better as a player. But this was a great lesson of the situation matters so much for some of these guys that that is conducive to being a good offense. Even whoever is playing at quarterback.

Brock Purdy with the 49ers is another example with this. And also the other thing was my concerns with the AJ Brown trade was this is maybe my biggest takeaway from all this. Is scheme proof players are scheme proof players. Stars are stars. And I was so worried that he wasn't a stylistic fit because the Titans only used him on digs and imbrakees. and in breakers, and that's why he was a yak guy. He's not going to be a go ball guy. It turns out he's amazing at go balls and dunking on guys and high pointing.

And his hand-eye coordination was fantastic. And that's the biggest lesson for me is that good players are good players. Don't overthink it. The role players is who you have to worry about scheme and fit. But stars are stars. Scheme-proof is scheme-proof. And so I think the situation, the stylistic fit of a star, that is something that I may be overrated. overthought of in my head and also a good offensive line can really help out with an offense.

And when you can always, you can run the ball at 50% success rate that matters so much. That, that to me is more instructive than the good offensive line. We're going to talk about another team later. And I think something that we've gone back to just kind of mentioning it offhand is when you have a good offensive line, it raises your floor. I think when you have a good running game, it raises your floor. I think that is the thing that's almost more important in the offensive line itself. And the Eagles offensive line is obviously great.

but having the quarterback be a part of the run game, their running game was always going to be like a top five unit. Even if they had an offensive line injury here or there, where they had a guy that really wasn't playing up to the same level that we thought, having the quarterback changed the mat there, almost every single simulation you could have played out for the 2022 Eagles. The running game probably would have looked close to what it looked like in 2021 when they were third in rushing DVOA.

So if the floor is established there, then we're talking about what the ceiling is. And when you add a superstar level player at receiver like AJ Brown, obviously you have his production. But the other thing that that it does is it slots everyone else in where they should be. Where now Devante Smith can be that super number two and Dallas Goddard is your super number three. It just makes everything else make more sense on the passing game side. And I think that's where the ceiling really gets pumped up and that's what we saw. Yeah.

And obviously the quarterback development certainly helps. It does help. Yeah. I don't want to knock it too much, even if I'm a little more bearish than other people. but the offense aligned stuff is so important too because it's just something to always rely on. And I think the this, it wasn't, it's one of those things where I didn't listen to myself. And sometimes I'm knock people when they're talking about prospects or something when I'm like, listen to what your report is saying to you.

Like this guy's this, all these negatives, negatives or all these positive positives, just listen to it. And I think with the Eagles, it's you're going to have a good run game. And no matter what that past game was going to be explosive. Those are like, yeah, that's conducive to a good offense. So I think the biggest, the biggest listen to me is just fucking listen to yourself, Nate. Like just listen to what you're saying as you're talking. So that's why I love, that's like my favorite type of offense, an efficient, awesome run game with an explosive pass game down a nickel and dime pass game.

Why didn't I listen? So I already kind of visited this. I would say around Halloween time in October when the Eagles were just tearing the doors off of everybody. But it's nice to kind of talk about it after everything has been done and what the Eagles did last year. And it's a good lesson. It's a really, really good lesson the Eagles offense was for me last year.

Where do you think the Eagles ranked in passing success rate last season? Oh, eighth? 14th. 14th, okay. It's like 45%, 47%. Yeah, it's right around there. Yeah, I just saw it the other day. Where do you think they ranked in past plays of 20 plus yards last season?

First or second? Second. Behind the dolphins, I would guess. Chiefs were number one. Chiefs? Oh, okay. Yeah. So the dolphins were number three.

The dolphins had 62. The Eagles had 63. So they had a very efficient successful running game and an explosive passing game. It's exactly the formula that you would have been out. That's the formula for a good offense, especially in the modern NFL. There's 30, these are the numbers. We did the show with Barnwell, the lessons from the final four teams. It was, I think, a 40% or more rush success rate.

I think it was a 13% or 14% or plus explosive pass rate. Those were like the magic numbers to hit. And Eagles did it with flying colors, bringing everything back to the Bears. as I always will. That's the kind of formula that you're hoping for. It's if you can be one of the three or four

best most efficient run games in the league because now you have real pieces along the offensive line. You've got some development from some of the younger guys you have there. Your quarterback changes the math for you. And now you have some explosive pieces in the passing game.

You don't need to be this team that churns out tons of first downs throwing the football. As long as you can take one or two, three, one, two, three haymakers a game. That is a formula for at least moderately successful NFL offense. your jabs are you have to have your jabs and some teams do it with quick passes and some teams do

with running the ball. I always use a term attack underneath, but that's kind of what I mean. That's how they find their jabs and some screens. Like the Eagles did a lot of really good screen stuff with their receivers. Hey, having Devante Smith and AJ Brown as your screen catchers really helps. But that was that's how they jabbed them. It wasn't quick game. It wasn't slants. It wasn't too many RPO's even if that was a little bit of their offense. But it was then how you find your haymakers. Some do it through the run game, but some usually it's chunking down the feel in the past game. But great point about the Bears, though, because that's exactly the formula for them.

It's funny that you mentioned how you find those first downs, how you found those jabs and quick ones, because my third one here, I said the Packers were going to be a top five offense. And part of the thinking that led to that is I just had faith in Matt Willfleur and I had faith in Aaron Rogers and also had faith in the line. And, you know, the running backs were really good. I thought the running game was going to be good. And it was. Yeah. But the passing game just didn't end up having.

that efficiency and reliability that they'd had in years past. If you look at kind of the gaps in what the 2021 Packers were compared to the 2022 Packers, there's some really interesting numbers. So in 2021, the Packers were fourth in passing success rate. They were just really efficient throwing the football. Last year, they were 15th. They were eighth in explosive passes last year. Christian Watson was one of the most efficient players in the league in terms of EPA per target

because there are a lot of big, big plays. But they just didn't have a relationship. liable way to move the ball through the air last year like they had in years past. And that's where they missed Devante Adams. Like, I truly think that was the biggest difference. So smokes. And it just, and on early downs, that's where it was most pronounced is on early downs. Okay.

So in 2021, Devante Adams converted 15.2% of his early down routes into first downs. Okay. That led the league by a lot. I was going to say that's got to that. By a lot. That's an incredible number. Cooper Cup was at 13.6% of his routes. That was second.

Yeah. This number might be even wilder. 50.9% of Devante Adams' early down targets went for first downs in 2021. 51% of his early down targets went for first downs. Not catches. Targets. Targets. Okay.

That's absurd. That was actually absurd. That was third in the NFL. Okay. The only reason it's third is because the guy. guys ahead of him on the list are like Byron Pringle. Like it's guys that are getting a handful of targets, but hit the minimum. He was third in the percentage of his early down targets and went for first downs.

And he was third in the league in early down targets. Typically, volume and efficiency are correlated like that. Yeah. So for him to be third in targets and third in first down percentage is truly insane. Okay. Yeah. He converted 59 early down first downs in 2021. that was second in the league behind Cooper Cup.

Think about that. That's like three and a half a game. Yeah. It's absolutely crazy. And it makes sense because he was such a big part of that, obviously a big part of the offense, but part of the run game, they,

sorry, real quick, this is the difference for me in RPO's and package plays. And I've talked about this before. RPO's is slant, stuff down the field is how I kind of categorize it. A package play is if you run a bubble or a smoke, which is a bubble behind the line of scrimmage.

It's a run game controller. We're not blocking that guy. same thing as an RPL, but just different. The Packers, no one runs them more than the Packers did with Devante Adams and Aaron Rogers. Smokes out the Wahoo. One man bubbles out the Wahoo. But it wasn't usually four yards on first and 10. It would get an efficient run out of the play is kind of like what you're trying to get.

He's getting first downs. That it's just, it's ridiculous. It's cheapies that are turning into $1,000 bills. Like it's ridiculous what he was doing back with the Packers. But just, yeah, sorry, I just had thrown out in there. It's absolutely right. And so you look at it, Alan Luzard had 27 receiving first downs and early downs last year. Okay.

That led the team. Adams had 59 in 2021. So that's two a game. That they didn't have. Lazzard ranked 27th in first downs per route run last year after Adams led the leak, essentially, in 2021. That's just a huge gap. And it's not like the Packers were bad on offense last year. The Packers finished ninth and weighted offensive DVOA.

And I think by the end of the season, they had that explosive element. Like Watson really gave that to the, them, but they just didn't have that consistent way to create first downs, especially through the air on early downs. And I think that's what really defined what their offense was over those previous couple seasons. And, you know, this is, again, one of those moments where I was betting on Rogers doing a similar thing to, not to the same extent, but kind of what Mahomes ended up doing last year,

where even if you trade our number one receiver, right, quote unquote receiver, we still have enough with this quarterback to really be hyper-efficient offense. The chiefs still had Travis Kelsey. They still had someone to build the past. game through in an efficient way, the Packers didn't have that guy. I think that's important. Rogers told me before the season last year that Devante was the number one option in the progression on 80% of their passing place. I should have taken that to heart a little bit more than I did, I think. So how are you going to fill that 80%? It feels like the money ball discussion. So how do we

replace Giambi? Well, we do this and we do that, but it's not Giambi. It's not the same player. So I just think that reliable option was really missing from them last year. And Watson, again, came along strong in the second half of the season in a very specific way. And I think that what they did this off season by adding the two tight ends, by going to get Jaden Reed, can we get some more reliable pass catching options, ways to consistently move the ball through the air that aren't necessarily explosive plays? And I get the thought process based on who they were. And I missed on who they'd be because I didn't really take that enough into account enough. Yeah, I had concerns just because exactly everything you laid out.

I just didn't think it would be as stark. I also thought Rogers would maybe go into kind of an FU kind of thing. Like, I don't need it. Like, watch this. Watch this shit. Watch this drive. But it kind of didn't go that way with the opposite way. It was like kind of like, oh, screw this kind of thing.

Sometimes throwing the ball where he was just like, I'm throwing this guy. That also didn't help. The fact that the quarterback looked moderately checked out at times, that's something that's harder to account for. I tried to be a little bit more scientific in the things that I was looking at here. No, I loved your breakdown. And also just to reiterate, too, is that the Packers had a damn good run game. I mean, sure, anyone that owned Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillon in fantasy knows this. But they, they're so efficient. They're explosive. How they got to was a lot of fun, especially not considering Rogers isn't a running quarterback. They're not running designed runs for him. But their run game was a good,

good run game. It's just, yeah, the past game never got over the hump. I'm glad to bring up Christian Watson. I think what they're doing, I would think every team does this anyways, but especially with the tight ends they drafted Reed, you mentioned as well, Dobbs from Nevada as well, is that they're hoping one of them breaks out. Yeah. One of them is their ace. And then that's, okay, cool, but now they have five bets with plenty of draft capital in those five bets. So it's kind of, it's going to be interesting. Packers, I'm fascinated by them this year in the next couple of years. I think a lot of people are, but I'm especially so. If Watson can still be your home, run hitter, where do you find guys getting on base?

That's what they didn't have last year. We've talked about this, how first downs are like on base percentage to a certain level. And they just didn't have those guys who got on base last year. And it's fine if Watson's knocking everybody home, but you need guys that actually get on. And they just didn't have those sorts of players within the offense last season. And all of Watson's stuff, not all of it, but a lot of it was very designery. Okay, red zone, here's a play for him. Third down, here's a special play for him, shot plays for him.

And he can take it to the house. Oh, I mean, that guy's explosive is. hell, but again, it's just the down to down. Down to down. Nope. I like that one. That was, yeah, Packers are fascinating. All right.

Next one here. You and I both, embarrassingly, said that the Colts were going to be a top 10 offense last season. Did we? And not just on one show either. If you guys, all right. Where do you think the Colts finished an offensive TVA last year? Oh, I'm terrified.

Oh, bad. It's like 27th or something, right? You wish it was 27th. It's worse than that. Dead last. Oh, no. Man, that's ice cold. That's bad.

Dead last. That's bad. That's one of the worst ones I've ever had. This one's going to be like sorting through just a grisly crime scene. Where do you want to start? Let's start with the severed head. So should we talk about QB Cliffs? QB Cliffs is a good place to start.

Yeah, so we'll start with Matt Ryan. And I thought watching him that last year with the Falcons, where there's some, you know, arm strength, woes, concerns that maybe were cropping up a little bit. But I would brush it aside, say Maddie, never, Maddie, like, you know, we're best friends. Matt never really won on that way. He always had just a fine arm. So who cares? He'll win with timing and accuracy. And so who cares if that matters. It turns out it matters a lot. It matters a lot when you can't really put a lot of oomph on the ball. and you can't throw anything to the field, especially if you can't step into throws when the offensive line is falling apart around you.

So I think the QB Cliffs is something that you're always going to try to predict, but it's a very real thing. It's a very little thing. It's just very sudden. I think this is a great stat. Okay. In 2021, Matt Ryan finished 17th in big time throw percentage according to pro football

focus. Okay. It feels about right. Middle of the road. Yep. It feels about right. Right behind Lamar Jackson. Okay.

Like right ahead of Justin Huron. Justin Herbert, you know, just middle of the road, 4.4% in 2021. So you're looking at that, it's like, okay, you know, he's still got a little bit of gas left in the tank. Like, he's going to be more reliable than Carson Wentz was within that offense. And as long as they have someone that can keep the train on the tracks, then why can't they be better than they were last year when they were a borderline top 10 offense with Carson Wentz? That's why we went there. It's like, all right, the running game should be good. Jonathan Taylor, the offensive line, which we'll get to as long as they can just be more consistent throwing the ball.

and Matt Ryan is just a really good conductor of this entire thing. Whatever conductor you want, either a train or the actual orchestra, he's going to be able to be the guy that oversees this. Where do you think his big time throw percentage finish in 2022? It's got to be bottom of the barrel, 30th. Dead last. Dead last. Forty-first of 41 qualified quarterbacks.

He went from 4.4% of his throws to 1.2%. That's disgusting. The cliff comes, man. And sometimes it comes faster than you think. even if there are little glimpses of it in 2021. He still overall was right there in the middle of the pack with a lot of quarterbacks terms of how his arm looked. And then last year, it just drove off a cliff.

Yeah. Oh, man. Especially with the, why I was kind of like kind of blemishing over there or hiding that blemish. I put a little makeup on it. I was like, okay, it's fine. It was that I thought that, oh, he's just going to pepper throws over the middle. You know, he's just going to work the big tight ends and the big receivers.

And it just never happened. That was just the idealistic version of how I picture this offense. And it was just you can't really do that in a lot of third and longs. I was picturing that maybe on first and second down. But he was either on his back, Matt is in his late 30s. He's not creating like he used to be able to because he was so tough and like was really good thrower on the move. That's gone. And then there's just no room for error with that offense.

That's what arm strength does. Gives you room for error or timing and other thing, pushing the ball. It gives you room for error. And he just had none of that. No offense line to lift the floor. The floor just fell out. There was no ceiling to be spoken of. The run game wasn't there.

It was just a litany of issues. It was just a nightmare kind of season on that offense. I'm sure. I tell you, when I watched them against the Jags early in the season and I watched how the offense a line played, I know we're talking about Matt, but watching that offensive line play was like,

what is going on with this team? Like, that is bad what you guys are doing right now. Like the eyes were bad. I was like, I thought you guys were going to be sound, just this brutally efficient offense with some explosive runs. And it just never,

never even got off the floor. Floor is a very good word. Because this is what we were talking about a little bit earlier with the Eagles. I thought the floor for the Colts would be pretty high because the offensive line would just be good. It's the most expensive offensive line in the league. They've invested in plus starters, we thought, at several different positions, okay? You had Quentin Nelson at left guard, you had Ryan Kelly at center, you had Brayn Smith at right tackles. It's like guys, they had paid guys that had played well in the past.

This is a really good lesson in why offensive lines are still weakling systems. the left tackle was a disaster for the first several games of the year. Matt Pryor over there, and you watch that game, that Denver game is just burned into my mind, just burned into my mind. And that was Bernard Raymond's first game. And he eventually got a little bit better as a third round rookie. But it started off rough. And the only reason he needed to play is that Matt Pryor was unplayable at left tackle.

And their right guard was unplayable at times over the course of last season. So you have those two spots along with the guys that we just penciled in as plus starters, not playing to the level that we had seen in the past. I think Ryan Kelly being the more pronounced version of that, but Quentin Nelson was not the dominant all-pro player that we had seen from him previously. So when that happens, if you're betting on the floor and the floor drops out,

that's what the Colts offense was last season. They just lost their ability to be consistent, efficient running the football and explosive. In 2021, 10% of the Colts runs were explosive plays. They had 72 rushes of 10 plus yards in 2021 when Jonathan Taylor was just destroying people. Yeah. Last year, 7.7% of their rushes were explosive plays. They finished with 46 explosive rounds.

So they went from 72 to 46. That's more than one a game. It's an explosive run to every single game that wasn't on the table anymore. And that is before you even consider the success rate. They finished fifth in offensive success rate rushing the football at 2021. It was 44.3% of their runs in 2021 were successful. Last season, they finished 31st, 34.9%. And that's what the strength of the team.

Yes. And that's when the floor falls out. And I think this gets back to the conversation we have about the Eagles, where when you have the run game, that's what raises your floor. And the Colts don't have a running quarterback. So when the offensive line starts to fall through a little bit, you realize how fragile that run game can be. It removes the floor and then the bottom can just fall out. And that's what we saw. Yeah.

We, and this is why it's dangerous to get your explosive plays through the run game. It sure is, buddy. That's, it's very fragile. That's why you want to be efficient in the run game. But that is, that's why it's a dangerous dangerous ass to do that. It's fine when you could do it, but it's kind of like turnover luck with defense, I think would be a good comparison. But I think that's why it's, I went to the Colts, talk about the Colts. And I think when I had my, I was telling you this before the show,

I went on the pod with Zach Kiefer, who covers the Colts. And I'm on the pod, and he's talking about, he's like, so you have no concerns with the offensive line? And I kind of just sat there and I started really talking through it. As I'm like explaining and talking through it, I realize, oh, shoot, I don't like my take anymore. But it was, it was August, like, oh, we're too far in. I already named this team a top 10 potential offense. But I think that's what the Colts was we thought they were just going to be, in the term

I'll use again, is brutally efficient. I didn't think they'd be explosive. but I thought it was going to be five-yard gains on the ground and five-yard gains through the air over and over and over and then a good defense. And I was like, that's why I was bullish on them. And then, yeah, when you're not efficient in a run game, you're supposed to be built on efficiency. This is what it looks like. It looks ugly because you're not creating those explosive plays to overcome that. And when you can't have that, you're done.

I think that lesson there is be careful if you're betting on floors. Be careful because the floor, the floor can be a lot lower than you anticipate it be. That's a good lesson. Now, this is good because going to the prediction season, this is good to remember. All right. Next one here. We both thought the Broncos would be a top 10 offense last season. And we ranked our top 10 offenses shows.

Where do you think the Broncos finished in offensive DVOA last year? I'm going to go 28th again. You wish it was 28th. Is it worse than 28th? They were 29th. Oh, yeah, they were 29th. They can't be last. It couldn't have been so much lower, but they were still 29th in offensive DBOA last year.

So not 10th. No, not 10th. Not 10th. It was definitely not 10th. We did think they would start off slow, but they stayed slow. They started off slow and they stayed slow to the point that the play caller and head coach lost his job before the season was over. It was out of there by the time of December. What lessons you learned from last year's Broncos?

First of all, why did you think they were? would be a top 10 offense last year. At first I thought there would just be some growing pains, new offense, new play caller. But then I looked at the weapons. I thought the offense aligned was more than fine. I would put them at an above average unit. I thought Russ was going to be Russ. I thought it was going to be a lot of explosive plays with a good run game.

Russ had never been the quarterback for a full season of an offense that finished lower than 10th and offensive DVOA. That was why I thought they were going to finish there. It's like, all right, even if you're a little concerned about the fit, he's never been he's never quarterbacked offense has finished lower than that when he's played the full season and he's played most full seasons.

Yeah, right. Yeah, exactly. It was very durable for a while. I had some concerns about like him as he was not using his legs anymore, but I was like, hey, he's still going to overcome it with some deep balls, you know, and hopefully, you know, they don't try to pepper

too much quick game, but I think they can run the ball. Javante Williams and Melvin Gordon, I think it'll be a more than fine run game. And of course, the defense will help carry it, carry the load a little bit. But I just thought that even if the first couple of weeks were going to be tough, then by the time October hit, then I was like,

okay, we're going to see a lot of explosive plays. I mean, he has Cortland Sutton, Judy. Tim Patrick did get hurt during camp, but it was before that. I was still thought,

it was brutal. Oh, I'm sure. It was right at the beginning, right? It was only like, practice one, two or three.

It was a weekend. Okay. Yeah, it was like a weekend. It was early August. God. And so I remember with that offense, I was like,

okay, they got plenty of weapons. The offensive line, which is usually the concern with Russ. okay, they're going to be enough, have enough there that the run game will carry them a little bit until they figured out the past game. And it just never happened. Injuries didn't help, of course, but there's just so, there's so many more things other than injuries

as far as just being a cohesive offensive unit. And, I mean, we can do the post-mortem in a sec, but I'll stop at that point right now. I was just betting on him being a consistently above average quarterback, like consistently. That happened a long time. look at what they gave up for him. Look at the contract that they gave him. Guess who else thought that Russell Wilson was going to be a consistently above average quarterback? The Denver Broncos and George Payton.

And that didn't happen. You know, it didn't happen. And if we're talking about the lessons that we can learn, we did hint at this a little bit. If you go back and you listen to our podcast about quarterbacks and new places, which is the show I love doing every single year. And I assume we will run it back again. Fun one this year. When we get to August.

I was there. during camp. And I talked to Nate Hackett. I talked to the offensive coordinator. And I was just asking them, you know, how is this going to work? You know, how are you going to build this thing? You know, what sort of stuff you think you're going to borrow from Seattle? What sort of stuff do you think you'll bring from Green Bay?

What did you learn from the Aaron Rogers experience? You know, you go and you have a Hall of Fame quarterback, dropped with a new play caller. How do you kind of marry those things together? And pretty much everyone there said to me, said to Peter King, said to anyone who would listen, we're going to have Russ dictate a lot of this. He's going to have a lot of autonomy and how we shape it. Justin out and told me he brought the empty package that he used in Seattle that he loved. And it was pretty deluxe and they were going to really tap into that.

And you were worried about that. And I don't think we were worried enough. And what we learned, one of those lessons that we learned, I think, is that the Seahawks did a good job of putting the correct amount of guardrails on Russell Wilson when he was in Seattle. I think the Broncos also learned this lesson. because in my opinion, Sean Payton's going to bring a similar amount of guardrails and the offense that he is going to run. And this,

it was, it was illuminating. Yeah. What happens when you kind of let Russ go and you really let Russ cook compared to what he did in Seattle for those few years. Let Russ cook and choose the ingredients. Yes. Yeah,

that was dangerous. That was, I remember you saying that. We came back from camp and I was like, oh, no, that's the opposite of what I want to hear about. what this year is going to be. Because even if Russ, like you said, we've talked about this before,

but it's fascinating because Russ is his own worst enemy in that regard because he's great on the board and he's going to go in and I'll have all these plays and it's good. But as soon as the bullets start flying, it's simpler is better. It's just it is.

And he's better when he is very comfortable with a small subset of plays as opposed to wanting to be, he wants to be sent back there and be Drew Brice. Like that's what he wants to be. That's his idealistic version. That's his avatar is Drew Breeze. That's what he pictures himself as when really it's more like, yeah, you're a creation.

You're a magician. You're a big, you're a big gamer. You're a big game hunter. You deep all the shit out of everybody. You break cover zero, throwing it down the field. And empty, empties all down to how quick of a processor the quarterback is and how he reads the game pre and post snap. That's the difference.

And as soon as you said, oh, he has the deluxe empty package that we're going to install and run and ride it with. And if you even, this is just. anecdotally, I'm talking about the empty stuff or just anything with Russ as dropback games. The numbers were horrendous. Horrendous. Like either the worst or one of the worst quarterbacks out of empty year after year after year, especially the last couple of years in Seattle.

And that's where that even goes back to when I was with him at Wisconsin. And so that is why I kind of was like, oh, no, oh, no, no, no, no, no. And then the other thing was we did out our AFC West preview. We talked about it. That's when we kind of deep dive. We're looking at staffs. We're looking at all the stuff. And I looked at their coaching.

It's 29th out of 33 and empty EPA per dropback in 2021. One of the worst. 25.4% of his deep attempts out of empty went 20 plus yards in the air. Yep. Because that's what he does. He launches it. And that's what he did this year. With a Judy,

someone posted Jerry Judy's A dot averaged up the target. And it's because anytime they were at empty, they just run a slot fade to Judy. And that's what he threw. That's what he did. It's not the Rogers performative deep ball. But it's from the same family. But I looked at the coaching staff. And I'm looking through it.

And it's a lot of, you know, first year offensive line coach, first year coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, first time head coach, even the defense aside, first time first time, first time, first time, or high school teams coach. But just first time where they had that responsibility. And my concerns was, oh, well, if it's going to be a slow start, where do the ideas come from? And that's when I started kind of the alarm bells were going off for me in Broncos land and even just talking about it. became more and more pessimistic about them, even before the season started. And of course, I didn't expect that what 2022 was, but I wasn't expecting anything like fireworks the whole season. So they just, there's just a lot of lack of trust with the offense.

Russ not operating how he should operate and what was called, maybe giving him too much power with what was called. And then when they try to rein it back, him not trusting it. The other stat I'll pull up was Alex, which is football outsiders does. It's basically how many. yards below behind the line or be i'm sorry behind the first down marker the quarterback targets um it's named after alex smith because he'd always throw it short of the sticks rust was always a big game top five top five year after year with seattle pushing the ball on third down pushing the ball on third down and then this

past year he was like bottom three in that metric and you'd watch it every third long he's just immediately checking the ball down so you got the human element you got just injuries human element of not being confident in the offense and him just overthinking what was called it was just a it was a mess it really was a mess. It's it's something that as we're taking a step back from, it's like, wow, that actually did happen. It happened. We all got to watch it sometimes on national TV. It was bad at times. The Broncos are going to be good this year. I'm privately, yeah, privately as I'm saying this on a public podcast. Yeah, I actually think they're going to be pretty good. I'm a little, I'm a little, I'm more optimistic about it this year. I'm putting you on the spot. I haven't really spent a lot of time

thinking about it and going down that road because I kind of like gave up on Russ last. year, I was kind of just like, I think this is it. I think it gets over. And that's typically not how I, I'm just a more optimistic person than that. So I think that there's a real chance between today, which is May 16th and September 10th, I talk myself into the idea of them because they spent a lot of money on the offensive line. Javatea Williams was hurt last year.

Even like Somagie P. Ryan, as a stabilizing force as their number two back is better than some of the things that they traded for Chase Edmonds last year. Right. As part of that Bradley Chub deal. Benching Melvin Gordon middle of the game. Like, it's rough. Garrett Bowles has hurt for half of last season. You get him back.

It's like, all right. How much faith do we have in Sean Peyton? I think deservedly we should have a lot of faith in Sean Peyton. So there's a chance I talk myself back into them being a solid team this year. I think solid is a perfect word, like a nine and eight, 10, and seven type team. That's how I've been kind of picturing him in my head right now. Yeah, I haven't said this on any show, especially not ours or said this anywhere. It's May.

It's not the time for preseason takes, but I was just curious. I am a little more optimistic about them this year than I was last year, which is so funny. After all the hype that was about them about this stuff. That's a good way to do it, though, because I think that a lot of people are going to be relatively down on them because of how ugly it was at times last year. So it's a good time to kind of say, you know what? It might be a little better than we think. And we think of Drew Brees and that Sean Payton offense, Nicol and Die make the early career saints, or early Saints, Drew Brees and Sean Payton's offense and the James Winston version of the Saints offense was. with Champagne as his play caller, down the field, shot plays off play action and a strong run game.

I think that's where we're going to see this here. And I think it's the guardrails, my friend. That's the guardrails. And it's needed. It's been proven that it's needed. And I think it's going to be a good thing for the Broncos and a good thing for Russ. They did pay a lot of money for a backup quarterback, though, which is also quite interesting. Footnote.

All right. Let's just keep flogging you here. Yeah. You predicted that the Bucks would be a playoff team last year. would be one of the best teams in the league last year. It would be a top 10 offense last year. What led to that sort of optimism about the bucks? What was the root of your thinking about this team heading into last season?

No one left other than Bruce Ariets. And he really just moved upstairs. So I was like, yeah, let's keep the good times rolling. I thought that would have been their last hurrah. I thought they're going to push it. And I thought they got through the hangover season after they won the Super Bowl. And so I was like, okay, you already went through the season that usually troubles a team after success. So hey, let's go.

You know, as soon as, yeah, you forget people are people sometimes, and sometimes there's a lack of motivation. Or sometimes, let's just get through this without getting hurt type feeling that can happen. And I think the quarterback who's supposed to be the best player, kind of went through that, especially when his center went down. But I was optimistic because I just looked at the pieces. I thought the offense line would have been more than fine. I thought pretty damn good. I thought the weapons, of course, were great. They added Russell Gage.

And I was like, wow, that's your number three. you look at this offense. And I, Rashad White got dropped in with Lenny Fernette. And I was like, okay, they're cooking on offense. They don't have a tight end,

but don't worry about that. Turned out should have worried about that, just a little bit. What you're using a fourth and sixth rounder as your tight ends? That's a, of rookies. That's pretty tough, even if I like Kate Otten.

So I think that's what I was going into the season, just going nothing really changed. Bruce Ariens went upstairs, but we've all, Byron left, which was calling plays the last couple of years anyway. So is it going to be that different? And it turned out,

Yeah, it was. The Ryan Jensen injury didn't help. I will add that as well. I mean, that's a bad note on which to start. You're already going down that road on day one of camp. That was early. That was like the first or second day of camp. I was in L.A.

I mean, I think it was the first day I was with the Rams and the Chargers, and it might have been day one of training camp. He got hurt. And then it kind of creates this cascading effect. And it's an interesting push and pull with quarterbacks and their pressure. We look at the numbers and typically quarterbacks dictate how much pressure they invite. and Tom Brady might be the most extreme example of that over the last couple years. He was getting rid of the ball so quickly that it made the offensive line look better.

But when the offensive line injuries started to pile up, I think that he lost trust in the offensive line. And you could just feel him sitting there being like, I don't trust the center. I don't trust the left tackle because he's playing, he's having the worst season of his career. I'm over this. Yeah. Like there is no way I'm sitting back here taking a beating. And so the clock was sped up even more, but it was sped up in. a bad way. And so that's, that feels kind of fragile in terms of what that feels like. Is the

quarterback getting rid of the ball and protecting himself? Is the quarterback getting rid of the ball too quickly because he doesn't trust the guys in front of him at all? And I think we went a little bit too far in that direction with the arrow last year with the bucks. Yep. I thought it would be, yeah, I mean, that's really it. You could see Brady whose mechanics are, you know, they're teach tape. You know, that's what people really look at. Tom House uses it as one of his best examples of how someone's changed to be more efficient as a thrower. There's no waste of movement with his motion. And you watch his footwork.

And I know what that footwork is. That's a footwork that doesn't trust what's happening in front of them. That's a footwork of, please do not take out my knees. Because he would throw the ball and he would jump his feet back. And it's hard to throw confidently. Even though Brady was still making some, he had a couple S-tier throws.

He had one against the Ravens. I was like, the arm was still there. Still there. The arm was absolutely still there. Absolutely. But it was just, there was no breathing room with that offense. There was,

it was just, hey, play the greatest hits. Let's run it back. There's no creativity from the offense as far as ideas or what they wanted to do. They're running their heads into the wall,

running the ball wise. And there's just no new ideas. I just didn't think there's an incentive from anyone to try and find no ideas. It really felt like everyone's like, hey, we get off at five. It's four o'clock.

Just get through this next hour. That's what it felt like. It felt like the entire offense, especially had that kind of ammo, that kind of monster. throughout the season. It's like, let's just get through this. And when your quarterback is acting like that,

I'm not knocking Tom Brady, I still competed his ass off and everything, but you could just feel it that he was just not trusting anything that was happening. And there's no easy buttons than that entire offense. I don't know what the lesson is. It's just that, I don't know, just because the same unit's coming back doesn't mean it's going to still be a good unit. That's a really good lesson.

Because part of the reason that I was so bullish on them is they deserve the benefit of the doubt. And eventually it runs out. And it's hard to know when that's going to happen. You know, there's going to be a lot of misses, I think, over the years with teams like that, units like that, players like that. It's like, well, if I'm trying to pick the best 10 offenses in the league, and I'm not sure who the 10 are going to be.

Tom Brady's probably a pretty safe bet to be one of the 10. With the same weapons, with the same weapons, and sometimes it doesn't work. Offensive line injuries and injuries in general are always going to be just one of, if you try to figure out why do teams disappoint, why do teams fall short, it's going to be one of the first things you can list off every single time. And I think the $222 are another really good example of that. On the other side of the ball, I think you really saw with the lack of pass rushing juice on that roster did to their defense. Jack Barrett played half the games, and they didn't really have anybody else.

No, no, Joe Try and Shainka finished first on that team in pressures. He had 48. Go look at a team like Dallas who were about to talk about. They had like four guys with 48 pressures last year. Right. And pressure percentage on non-blitzes last year, the Bucks finished 26th in pressure rate. And that's important in that defense. Yes.

That's, you mentioned the non-blitzes because Todd Bulls dials it up, but you still have to sustain when you're not dialing it up. So you lose Shaq Barrett for half the season, and you don't have any other guys that can just win one-on-one matchups along the defensive line as past rushers. It's just hard to be a good defense in the NFL that way. And it's a far cry from what they were as a pass-rushing unit when they were in the Super Bowl. You know, when they could dominate that game because they had Jack Barrett, they had JPP. They were rushing five a decent amount, not in the Super Bowl specifically, but during that run, when they were creating those one-on-ones with Devin White, and they just, if they were creating those one-on-ones by bringing five, they didn't have that many guys who could consistently win them last year.

And you combine that with not like devastating levels of secondary injuries, but Sean Murphy Bunting missing four or five games here, Carlton Davis missing four or five games there. Antoine Winfield missing two or three games here. That happened all of last season. And I think that that combined with the lack of pass rush, the defense just wasn't at that same level. And if the offense is going to disappoint too, that's what you end up getting. And I've for years, I know you like the offense too, but like a Bruce Ariens offense, I know left foot just calling the plays. Why I like it is because it's hard.

And you don't. High wire acts, baby. Yeah. And you don't, when it's run well, like the first couple of years than Brady with the box, in Carson Palmer with the Cardinals, and it's like, it's the best. It's like, this is awesome. Just jamming it down your throat, throwing the ball and running the ball and explosive plays left and right.

But that's the thing. It's hard. And you have to have good players. You have to have motivated good players because you're asking them do very difficult things. Receivers have to run over the middle of the field. They have to win one-on-ones. Offensive line isn't going to get a lot of help protection-wise as you push the ball down the field.

The quarterback has to make ST or one-percenter throw. goes over and over. And you see when you don't have the horses to do it or the mindset to do it or the injuries crop up or whatever have you. And that's what it looked like last year's box. It's just it's not very efficient. And when it's not explosive, it's hard to overcome. Hard to quantify this, but I also think it's worth mentioning.

I think they just miss Brouserians, both as a head coach and as an influence on the offense. You know, Byron Lefich was somebody who was getting a lot of head coaching looks before last season. There was a lot of buzz about him being a head coach. I don't think the offense was particularly well orchestrated last year. And then there's a chance of Todd Bulls just isn't a good head coach. You know, we've seen him do it a couple times and he's a good defensive coordinator.

But as the guy at the front of the room, you know, kind of leading the organization, he has left a lot to be desired in his two stops. And I think that's worth mentioning as well. I don't think you can really talk about last year's team without bringing it up. Absolutely. No, that's a huge thing. That's where head coach sometimes motivates the team in ways that we don't even think of. And you just don't know, it's just kind of proof now of what's going on there.

But no, that's a great point. as far as the coaches can be familiar. We can say that, oh, they have this, this, and that. But you are what your record is. That's always what it's going to be with the coaches. My last one here. I said that the Dallas Cowboys would miss the playoffs last season. I did not anticipate their defense staying as good as it was in 2021.

They had so many turnovers in 2021. They were taking the ball away at a pretty big rate. And you can't rely on that season. in and season out. I thought, all right, if that turnover number drops, are we really going to rely on this team

to be good on defense down in and down out? Guess what? They were. They finished second and offense defensive DVOA last season to the San Francisco 49ers. They were top five in passing

and rushing defense DVOA. And I was wrong. I was just flat out wrong about how good their defense would be. And I wanted to kind of figure out why I was wrong. You know, the thinking was the turnover

wouldn't be as good. You know, Trayvon Diggs was kind of boomer bust last year. And if the bus were going to remain, but the booms were going to go away, could they take a huge drop? And that didn't happen. And I think it's for a couple specific reasons. One, the pass rush remained ridiculous. If you can have a pass rush that consistently can just take over games,

there's a good chance you're going to be a pretty damn good defense. And that's what they were. They led the NFL in pressure rate last year. It's like 43.6 percent. of dropbacks, which is the highest rate in the entire league by a decent amount. And they had guys all over the line making contributions. Dante Fowler was one of the most efficient pass rushers on a per snap basis in the entire league last season to go along with Micah Parsons.

And when you can continue to find, when you have a program and a mindset that can cycle through these guys, that can consistently lead to defensive success. We've seen it in San Francisco. I think we're seeing a version of it a little bit with the Cowboys over the last couple years since Dan Quinn came in. That was another thing. We'd only seen one year of this version of it with Dan Quinn. There wasn't a lot of built up equity for what the Dallas Cowboys defense could be because we'd only seen it for a season. And I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt at this point. And the other side of it, outside of the pressure rate with Parsons and all those guys up front, the busts started

to go away last year. And I think that was one of the most important things. And I think I might have figured out kind of why they started going away. Okay. So in 2021, the Cowboys played cover one on 32.5% of their early downs. So that's a lot. Yeah. It's a lot of man coverage on early downs. It was number one in the NFL pretty comfortably ahead of even the dolphins, who we know is the Superman heavy team.

Last season, it went from 32.5% man on early downs to 20.6%. 12 percentage point drop in the amount of cover one they played on early downs. And their cover two probably went through their. roof, right? It went up a little bit. Yeah. The cover two is what they replaced it with. Yeah.

In 2021, they gave up 66 explosive pass plays on early downs. That was eighth in the NFL. The eighth most. Yeah. They had the fourth highest explosive play rate allowed on early downs in the league in 2021. There was like a Patriots game in 21. I remember they got torched on a couple passes.

It was ugly. So they gave up 66 explosive. passes on early downs, which is eighth in the league. They had the fourth highest explosive play rate allowed in early downs when they were playing all that man in 2021. This year, when they went away from that amount of cover one in early downs, they were 17th in explosive play rate allowed on early downs. They were 25th in the number of explosive passes that they allowed on early downs down from eighth in 2021. So all of those busts or a lot of those busts that we saw, those went away. And a lot of the underlying reasons that they were good,

the pass rush, you know, some of the flexible pieces they had on the back end, that remained the same. So that was my question is, how are you going to maintain the success if you can't create the same amount of turnovers? And the answers is, we're not going to give up as many big plays. And that's what ended up happening. And then some other smaller things, right, being able to overcome secondary injuries because you got a guy like Duran Bland as a rookie that can come in and be a solid nickel corner for you. And that's huge thing. When you lose some guys on defense, do you have an up depth at those positions where you could overcome it. Donovan Wilson coming back into the pitcher and being a really versatile piece for them. You know, J. Ron Curse again, you know, they had so many different guys who

could play specific roles as past defenders in those nickel-dine packages that it really allows them to overcome some stuff. They don't have that many high, high-end secondary pieces, but they have a lot of useful players. And this year, they've got five or six of them. We now with Stefan Gilmore coming in there. So I think as much as I did. give them the benefit of the doubt last year, they've really earned a lot of trust in my mind. And I don't really know what the lesson is. I think that if you got some banshees up front, you can overcome a lot of other perceived shortcomings, I guess, is maybe the way that I would describe it. And I think that applies to the Cowboys. And it applies to the team we're going to

talk about to round this thing out here. I guess sometimes a necessity because you have no other by their answers can turn into like your strength. Like it's like, okay, we have to run dime because we have no linebackers. And we got we got run man coverage because we were changing out guys. And then it turns out to like, wow, Jaron Curse is actually really good guarding tight ends. Maybe we should. They've got a lot of skill sets back there, man. And they deploy them very well.

It's useful is a great word for them. It really is, especially the DBs like you're talking to. Like they have answers. It's about configuring how you can stop. They've got so many body types and skill sets back there. It's a basketball team. well-constructed. It is in a weird way.

Like, it's, yeah, I know it is. It goes back to it. I think Will McClay does a great fucking job. Like, that team is well-constructed every single year. It's all drafted guys. Or it's one year, Jayron Curse, obviously, they pay. Curse is a great-flier. But when they eventually sign, J-Ron-Curse, Malik Hooker, you know, there's a lot of

flyers that they've taken on guys. Even the Brandon Cooks trade and the Stefan Gilmore trade, they're not giving away high-end picks to go get those guys. They've done a lot of good. They've acquired a lot. lot of players on the veteran market for not a lot of money. They do a good job with it. And also good coaches. And yeah, like I wasn't sure what Dan Quinn would be without being into Seahawks and in the Falcons. It's a great, great point. Some coaches can change their spots. You know, like they can

change what they're, how they win. And Dan Quinn gets credit sugar as much credit as possible for it because he wasn't known as a cover two guy. No. Like in this year, they're running cover to run. They're running like, designer looks that getting to cover two. And I was like, I didn't even know you had than your bag, Dan. I didn't know that you could do that. And we saw it once, right? They started doing that more in 2021. We saw a different version of him.

Yeah, yeah. He had clearly made some large structural changes, but what was it going to look like in year two when they had to make some smaller tweaks to that huge shift? And they did a great job with it. So again, they, I was dead wrong. And I benefit of the doubt belongs to Dan Quinn and that defense because I was, I'm happy to be wrong because they were fun as shit to watch last year. And I think they might be.

be again this year. That defense could be a lot of, that team's going to be a lot of fun. We should pull the Aeroorn for the Mike McCarthy Erhorn right now, but I think it's going to be a fun team. It's interesting. That defense, though,

is, I even was, I had them as a playoff team. I think I had them winning the division and the predictions, but it was also, I thought the defense would take a half step back because it's like, it's not sustainable, but even if I love Michael Parsons,

DeMarcus Lawrence. Yeah, but they still have holes. Who's playing a linebacker? And it's like, they find answers. And credit to them. All right. Last one here. You said the San Francisco 49ers would not make the playoffs last year.

Yeah. I had a little hesitation about the quarterback, which which quarterback. At this point in time, it was Trey Lance, where I like Trey Lance. He was my quarterback three in that draft, yada, yada. I just thought it would be some growing pains as an offense. And I thought the, you know, the big lesson is trust Kyle Shanahan. And also trust that when you're keeping your defensive coordinator, who's keeping the same stars in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner amongst other players they had on that

defense. Trust them. Like there shouldn't be. That was my biggest lesson when talking about that team. I think the offensive line, I had questions about the offensive line. I've made plenty of jokes about Danu Brunskill. And I'm like who they're playing at each spot. I'm like, man, this guy wouldn't even be on a roster for all the other teams.

That was probably the best O-line unit I've seen in Shanahan's tenure with the 40-nighters as far as across the board. and I think they figured out pieces that work for them. They found a center off the scrap heap that now they've re-signed. Like, yeah. Such nonsense. They know they're doing. Jake Brendel becoming like a quality starter for the San Francisco 49ers is some

gosh Shanahan bullshit. I'm sorry. I missed that one. But I got to, you know, Shanhan's good. He knows what he's doing. He can turn. He can find a good offense from anything. I just thought there would be a little bit drop off.

Maybe the defense has some drop off. Like who's going to, you know, Hufanga, you know, I liked him, but who knows what he's going to be as a full-time starter and turns out he's a fucking all-pro. Like, you know, it's, you can't bet on everything. I like the linebacker crew, but who knows? And then they found answers. They moved Jimmy Ward to the slot, which was an inspired choice. They just found ways. They're a good organization.

They had good coaches and good players. They added CMC. You know, the first kind of quarter of the season, they're a fine, a good, solid offense. And they add CMC and turn into just a juggerna. And that's just, you can't predict some of those things, but also you just have to have, again, you have to have trust in some of these coaches and some of the players and sustaining, especially none of them returning 30. You know what I mean? As far as player wise, they're all kind of in the prime of their careers, the stars of the offense and defense in 49ers. So I think I just overestimated the drop off of Trey Lance that might have with him.

And we didn't get to see that. No. We didn't get to see the version of it with Trey Lance. Nope. And I think that that's, so that's another reasonable prediction. We didn't think we'd ever see Jimmy Garoppolo play for the Niners last year. And then we didn't know what Brock Purdy would be. Again, going back to training camp, sitting there talking to Kyle Uscheck and it's like,

how does the offense feel different? And him just describing to me that it's not as on time as it might have been with Jimmy, but doesn't have to be. We have some second reaction plays. We can kind of create explosives that aren't presented by the structure of the offense. And as more, there's volatility in that, but there's also volatility in a good way, potentially with that version of the offense. But we never had to see it.

We just saw the old version of the offense and then Purdy came in and again prove that as long as you have somebody that you can point and shoot in the right direction with Kyle Shanahan and these players, you can have a really, really, really good offense. And that's a hard lesson to learn because it's not really doable in like 95% of situations. It's a brainbreaker because it's just like, oh, well, yeah. Everything I haven't taught about football teaches me not to think that this is sustainable. Correct. Oh, bad offensive line and a questionable quarterback, done.

Like, I'm out. Everything. It goes back to why they want a trail lance in the first place because their brains thought that. Yeah. They thought they needed a creator, a guy that, hey, everything's not perfect. He's going to make something happen. It's just, it's kind of annoying because it's like it's so hard to like just talk. That's why whenever we talk about Shanahan or the 40-nires, we always have to like kind of like a, all right, special breaking

news kind of segment because it's just like, hey, these don't, these lessons aren't really applicable to anybody else. When we talk about Kyle Shanahan, there's just be a cry on, on the bottom of the podcast. It says, this is all bullshit. It's just a reminder. Like, this is all bullshit. Did you watch the L.A's succession? I did.

Yes. Pending bullshit. That's what we're going to put up there as we're talking to the entire side. We get the 40-9ers. It is wonderful bullshit. It's beautiful bullshit. It's bullshit that I really, really appreciate. But bullshit nonetheless.

It is. that yes it's I know it I always struggle to talk about it because I'm like man man they do some good stuff and it's like well why isn't everyone do it's like yeah well I don't know because why isn't everyone the best in the world that what they do why why why it's called a officer coordinator that's called plays in the NFL since they're 27 years old like why why why why all those reps that when no one was paying attention on those early Texans teams yeah they help they really helps to get those reps. If you're a play car,

it could adjust and put together game plans against any type of defense because you have so much exposure to it. He's not like with five or six different teams, with five or six different sets of players and skill sets and different versions of the offense where he had to build it around different types of guys. It's almost like it's like the perfect education for becoming a pristine offensive play card if it's better than this and everyone else.

Yeah, it's good. It's, yeah, be a coach, some of a, you know, probably a hall of fame coach or potential of a hall of fame coach.

Super Bowl winning coach who was an offensive guy. Also redefined the NFL for a time. And have an offense that's unique that everyone else is copying and then have, oh, okay, then you play at a big blue blood school like Texas. And then you immediately start coaching in the NFL right after you finish playing. Yeah, it usually helps that that's your path. And you end up being a pretty good play caller. If that's your resume and your background, that's pretty conducive to it.

All right. That's all we got. That was fun, but also painful. It was. It's important to do that. I think that we should do that every year. I agree. I thought Beller's going to make us, and I'm open to it because I'm not afraid.

You know, somebody the other day, I can't remember where it was, me reading too many comments, said that, you know, Robert just will never admit when he's wrong. It's like, I'm wrong all the time. I don't have any, like, firmly held opinions about anything. After we were done yelling at each other last week, both of us were joking that I think we easily could have made the points the other person was making if we re-recorded the podcast to debate class. You can give me a different point.

I'll argue it. Yeah. No, that's, no, that's, no, it's funny. It's not bad faith, but I just say it, like, I don't feel, I'm not entrenched on any of this stuff. Just, just a heads up to everybody. It's a sport with 22 players on the field at a time and, and hundreds of players in the league that change every single year.

It's like, to get anything right, I, I'm, I'm going to tell that I got the Super Bowl champion right, because I'll never happen. again. That's the thing. Thank you, sir, may I have another because all these lessons of cold water. It's like, yeah, it's really hard to like predict any of this stuff, especially a sport like football. All right. That is all we got.

We will be back on Friday. In the meantime, please make sure you're checking out the football GM with Mike Sandow and Randy Mueller. They'll be coming your way on Thursday. Also, if you have not, we're doing another mailbag this Friday. We're doing them all throughout the offseason. please send along your questions. Athletic Football Show at gmail.com is where you can email those. And if you want to call and leave a message, the number is 872-22-2073.

One more time, 872-22-22-7073. That is all we've got for right now. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show. Thank you.