The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2022 NFL Draft: Deshaun Watson trade impact, David Ojabo’s injury & pro day takeaways

Episode Date: March 23, 2022

Dane Brugler and NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein break down the Deshaun Watson trade, the picks exchanged and what it means for Houston and Cleveland this season. Plus, they discuss David Ojabo��s Achilles injury and how it impacts his draft status. They wrap by reviewing their takeaways from the top pro days.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome back. I'm Dane Bruegler, joined as always with NFL.com's Lance Zerline. This is the athletic football show. It's our midweek NFL draft edition. And today we're going to touch on some of this quarterback movement. We had the Deshaun Watson trade, the Matt Ryan trade, going to the Colts. So we kind of reset the market. We want to hit on some pro days, that unfortunate David Ajabo injury. Plenty to talk about here as we're.

towards the end of March, almost to April, which is kind of crazy. But I want to start with this Watson, the Sean Watson trade. And maybe it's a little hyperbolic, but maybe not, to call it the most all-in trade in NFL history. But it kind of feels like that when you talk about the money involved, the compensation, the potential PR backlash. But it also, there's draft implications here. So that's why we want to touch on it. And I think we offer a unique perspective, Lance. because I'm a Cleveland guy.

You're a Houston guy. So first, let me get your 60-second kind of summary of the trade that we knew was coming. But now that it's official from a Houston perspective, how are you feeling about the move? Well, there's different ways to answer that. I think you can answer it from a league-wide standpoint. The league just thinks this guarantee money is just really bad in terms of the way that it's resetting quarterback market for, I mean, he's a good, Deshawn Watson is a good football player, taking, you know, taking out all the personal and the character stuff that people want to, we're having a football discussion now. Not to diminish the other stuff, but this is a specific conversation.

Deshawn Watson is not an elite quarterback yet. People, if you go back and watch him, I think he's on the precipice of becoming that, but I don't think he's there yet. But, okay, so a lot of, a lot of players are going to get paid for what they're going to become. I get it. It's a timing thing. Deshawn played what amounts to. He played six games in his rookie season. Then he played three years and then he didn't play last year. So he played three years in six games.

I think that from a contract standpoint, what Cleveland did, I've talked to a couple of personnel people who think this is really going to create tension moving forward because now the quarterbacks who are going to want to be next up with the with what they consider to be a reset of the quarterback value are going to find, just like Matt Ryan found out when he wanted to get, you know, I had heard he wanted, his agents wanted a new contract, not with Atlanta. Somehow I got put as, I reported he wanted a new contract with Atlanta. It's not Atlanta.

It's any other team he went to, but he has no, he's 36, 37, he doesn't have any leverage. And Baker Mayfield doesn't have leverage. And what they're going to find out on Baker Mayfield is that Baker Mayfield is not going to be able to get the new money that he's expecting. Jimmy Garoppolo is not going to. As far as Deshaun Watson's concern, I thought, you know, for him it's a good fit over there, Cleveland. I think they made the decision based on just the finances, clearly, was a big part

of bringing Cleveland back into the fold. But for the Houston Texans, Texans fans were a little disappointed at the hall, at least the initial hall. And I think there was some unrealistic expectations of what the draft, what the trade would bring back what it ultimately brought back, what we found out now, two-thirds of fourth and three first-round picks. Now, after the Russell Wilson trade, there was maybe some expectation that some potential starters could be coming back as well. Maybe a Greg Newsom might be coming back to the Texans, you know, something like that, players as well, because that's what we saw at the Denver trade. But what the Texans basically did is said, we will take these three first rounders.

And I think what's important, Dane, and you're going to recognize this specifically because you live in the draft space is anytime an NFL team has two first round picks, they are dangerous in a draft because they have the ability to move up or down. They can reshape their fortunes by trading back one of those first round picks for additional picks. what the Texans now have is three consecutive years of multiple first round picks. And it's only the second time in league history that three first round picks have gone for one player. You would assume those picks will be in the 20s with the Cleveland Browns because you expect them to be able to win. But I thought all in all the, I thought that Nick Casario did a really nice job of handling this entire situation, which is not easy.

It's been unprecedented to be sure. but I think the compensation he got back really was a solid package of picks. But you and I both know, it really doesn't matter what the picks look like, what the capital looks like. On paper, it matters who you evaluate, how you evaluate, and how they end up playing for you. Yeah, I think, and let's obviously, it's a good point about the future first rounders. I think realistically those, you think the Browns are going to be a playoff team with the current setup of their roster and this quarterback. So I think that's fair to assume they'll be picks in the 20s, and that's different than having a top 10 pick.

But speaking just towards this draft, having picks 3 and 13, two picks in the top 15, and look at the roster for the Texans, I think it's fair to say that they can go in any direction here. There's not one position that's off the table. But is there one position that you would be shocked that they don't come away with with one of those first two picks, picks 3 and 13?

I think, you know, I would, here's the hard part, Dane. You do mock drafts. Go ahead and name the three biggest needs for the Texans. And I will then go over the top in this devil's advocate, and I'll pick three different positions, and we'll both be right. I mean, it's hard for me to say, if you're sitting at three, and this is how I've looked at this previously, you're sitting at three, and you've got Ikea Kwanu, Evan Neal, and let's just say Aidan Hutchinson.

Aidan Hutchinson to me is a can't miss double, but I'm not going to call him a home run. He's a short arm guy. I think he is a good but not great pass rusher. I think he's a good run defender. But Aidan Hutchinson is a safe player. I think Evan Neal is a pretty safe player. Icky to me has a little more ceiling, a little lower floor. So I would be surprised if they don't come out with one of those three players.

I'm not going to say a position, one of those three players. Once you get to 13 and I look at how the draft, I think it may unfold. What's going to be curious is to see who is the player who falls. Because the way I look at it, I think there's a chance that Kyle Hamilton maybe could fall a little lower or Kvon-Tibod. I think one of those two guys could slip maybe a little lower than people expect, especially if Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett get hot inside the process here with three teams. Carolina, six, eight, Atlanta Falcons, and nine Seattle Seahawks. And I understand those teams have added quarterbacks.

You don't absolutely have to add a quarterback, but none of those quarterbacks are the solution, not more than likely. So I don't think it precludes them from taking quarterback. Let me put it that way, especially if you look at the way the construct of the salaries of those quarterbacks that they have just added. So if two of those quarterbacks, if Pickett and Willis get pushed inside the top 10, then Houston's going to have a pretty good football player fall to them potentially at 13. So when I look at 13, I would say I think I would be shocked if defensive end or pass rush

is not one of those two picks. That's the one position that I would probably point to more than the others. But once I get outside of that, based on the construct of the front end of the draft, I would say offensive line would probably be the other. position if I had to guess. So and by just using your reasoning, it sounds like, because I think there's a good chance that Hutchinson is either going one or two. I would be surprised if he's on the board of three.

So that would lead towards offensive line at number three. And then you said you'd be surprised that they don't go pass rush or so that would lead to pass rush or 13 if one's available. And I think that's maybe the question mark. That's a question. Yeah, David Ojobeau's no longer an option there at 13. Germain Johnson, Kay Montevideo, do these guys make it that far out of the top 12? Probably not, but maybe.

We'll have to see. I think where these quarterbacks go is definitely a domino here. Is there any realistic scenario where you could see the Texans drafting a quarterback at 13? No, no scenario at all. So they're going with, I think there's a little bit of a national disconnect here. Yeah, they want to see, because they understand that if they got it right with Davis Mills, then they've got a third round contract for the next three years. And ask Seattle, there's no better way to rebuild a team or to build a team than with a cheap contract for a rookie.

And that's what Davis Mills would offer. He was a five-star coming out, as you know. He's a guy who has the size. He's got the armed talent. There's a lot of things to like about Davis-Mills. He came into the league with three starts under his belt total in college. He had some ups and downs in the first part of the season last year for the Texans. He sat the bench.

He was kind of bad by the end of that first run. Tyrod Taylor came back in after having an injury. He came back. Taylor did not play well. Davis Mills came back after that and actually played well. So Davis Mills, once he spent some time on the bench, and, you know, and this is percolating on what he already had seen as a starting quarterback, he had that growth that you look for that growth spurt from a young quarterback. He had it at the end of the year. So I think the

Texans are hoping that he is their quarterback of the future. I do not look for them to take any quarterbacks in the first round. And people who are listening to that as a need, I can tell you, I don't think the Texans want any competition, frankly, if you're being honest for Davis Mills, because they want him to get through this season and they want to have two years to really judge Davis Mills. And then next year they'll have two first round picks to have additional draft capital, they could potentially take a look at Bryce Young at all next year if they really want to get into it. But I think they want a two-year-on runway at least for Davis-Mills. And of course, if you hit with a quarterback, if he ends up being a much better quarterback than,

you know, an early third round pick, boy, you've really given yourself a lot of freedom to build the pieces around him. Yeah, and that makes sense. And that's where I figured the Texans were looking. I mean, I was shocked. last draft when Trask, Kellyn Monde were both drafted ahead of Davis Mills. Davis Mills was the one guy outside those top five quarterbacks that all went in the top 15. He was the one guy that showed NFL starting traits. There's a little bit of a leap, a little bit of, okay, it's an upside here. There's some development needed.

But he had those traits. And so you wanted to develop those traits. And so he was, what, the eighth quarterback drafted? in the third round, which is nuts, but I'm glad he's going to at least get that chance. And the Texans, they know they're on an extended timeline here. So they don't need to accelerate it and force it if they are not ready to do that. I think from the Cleveland perspective, so the Browns are no longer drafting on day one, but they still have three picks on day two.

So that's, you know, they're not going to be irrelevant in this draft. And so with picks 44, 78, 99, the Browns are going to be very, very much in this mix. And when you look at some of these free agency moves, we'll see if they make any more. You know, Jadavia and Clowny's still out there. They have to figure out if they can bring him back. They've, you know, there's rumors about maybe bringing Jarvis Landry back. But we'll see what happens there.

Above all, they need to get better on the defensive line. Right now, it's Miles Garrett and a bunch of question marks. They traded for Chase Winovich from the Patriots, but he's not that answer that they're looking for as a pass-rush or opposite. Miles Garrett. So the name that keeps coming back to me in the second round for the Browns is Logan Hall from Houston. I think he fits a lot of what the Browns. You're playing him at the end? He doesn't want to play at the end for some reason.

His best position is three technique according to him. But I think that the both, first of all, the Browns need both. They need defensive end. They need defensive tackle. I think he gives you that inside, outside versatility where you can play around with him and do a little bit of both. So when you look at what the Browns look for in certain thresholds, I think Logan Hall hits a lot of those. So if he makes it the 44, he makes a ton of sense.

And then I wouldn't be surprised that they double up on the defensive line with two of those other picks in a third round. So we'll see what happens on offense. J.C. Tredder at center, they released him. The starting center job now belongs to Nick Harris, who is undersized, but he's athletic. He's tough. A guy that... He's a good player. I think we both liked him coming out of Washington.

I think we both like them better than the fifth rounds where I believe he was drafted. Yeah, he's a zone scheme. He's a really good player. He doesn't have a good body type. He's squatty, but he's a good football player. And a good fit for that's the Fansky offense. So I think they want to see what they have with him.

But at the same time, this is a really talented center class. I think there's some good centers in the third, fourth round that it would make sense if Cleveland maybe went that direction. You look at a Luke Fortner from Kentucky. You look at a Cole Strange from Chattanooga. Guys that can play guard or center give you that immediate depth on the interior of the offensive line, but also give you some insurance if Nick Harris doesn't prove to be the guy. Or if Nick Betonia or Wyatt Teller go down with injury.

I think that's a possibility. They could still go wide receiver as well. I think they're comfortable with Amari Cooper and Donovan People's Jones as the starters. They still believe Anthony Schwartz has upside. They signed Joachim Grant. There's some other guys on the roster that can fill out. those wide receiver positions. Linebackers, a position they could address.

Conklin at right tackle is coming off major injury, so right tackle a little bit in flux, depending on what they do there. So the Browns are very much in the draft discussion, just no longer on day one. Want to shift gears now. A little bit towards Pro Days. We've had, we'll start with maybe some of the unfortunate news.

David Ajabo at Michigan's Pro Day, goes down with the Achilles injury. You know, I took an informal poll right after it happened. I reached out to a few scouts to get their opinion. All three said probably falling out of the first round, but no later than early third. So somewhere between 40 and 75, I think, is a fair assumption. But, you know, so much depends on the rehab and the surgery and all that. Where do you think, if you had a guess right now, where would you say, David Adjabo,

it now comes off the board with this Achilles injury? Yeah, I think that, you know, I made, I did the same thing you did. And one of the, one of the, one of the answers I got back was a team with a second first. And there's, you know, there's, I mean, those teams would have to move back when you look at who has the first. You have, you have the Jets, you have the Giants, you have the Texans now. You have. With the Lions, Hutchinson and a job. Now that is, now that's the team.

Because what you do is you stash them for the fifth year. So the 32, the fifth year option, you need a defensive. in. Let's say one ends up going Aiden Hutchinson to the Lions get an offensive lineman. Then at the back end of the first, there's probably not going to, I think that would be an interesting draft and stash opportunity to let him get back to where he eventually, you know, where he was previously. But I think the odds, Dane, are not great that he goes in the first round, but I do think it's possible. I think that you'll see him go on the second round, but I think you'll see him go on the second round,

but that might also be the other team that has two first round picks. Because you don't, I mean, two second round picks, because the problem is you don't want to draft a guy in the first round with your only draft pick when you know he's not going to play for you next year or he's not going to be a factor for you next year, especially a job, you know, if this were Evan Neal, it would be one thing. If it were Jermaine Johnson or Kvon-Tibato, but we're talking about a guy that's,

still very raw, especially against the run. So I think that you have to factor that in. It was already going to be a developmental season for him as is. So you want to make sure that if you're going to take him, I think the concern is, so in the second round, here's your concern. If you take David Ajabo and this late in the process, who's the guy that the Colts have from Vanderbilt? Dengbo.

Yeah. Yeah. So they love him, but they say his juice hasn't fully come back, but they love him. And you know, you know, he was a splashy, flashy player, but he wasn't consistent. But you could, you know, you could make some comparisons with OJabo. He was just more of a long traits guy is what he was, who had some explosiveness. And he had some rush, he had some rush snaps this year that were really impressive. But the Colts will tell you, he didn't get all of a snap back. Like he's not, he's still waiting physically. And they think it's going to come back next year, but he's still waiting. to get that back. His injury, if I remember correctly, was also at a pro day, right? Or in training for a pro day? It was in January before even like the senior bowl happened. So this is, and so yeah, for a job, we're talking about March now. Yeah. So even if you went the most aggressive timetable, the camakers timetable, that's just not enough. So David Ajabo is going to be a red shirt this year. Yeah. So you have to really. I mean, it's, I can understand maybe with, with the, You mentioned a team with multiple first-round picks, but I'd still be very surprised when, you know, just this conversation we're having about a guy that you didn't expect to necessarily have a huge role in year one anyways, just because how raw he is, especially in the run game.

We have to hide him a little bit. But factor in this injury. And, and again, we're talking, what you just mentioned was best case scenario where, you know, the Cam Acre situation, there's no guarantee that he comes back, you know, as a. same athlete or, you know, it might take longer. So factoring in that risk, I would just be very surprised if he goes top 32. Yeah, I would too. That's just too much. I mean, you, you basically are subtracting a year from the contract. That's the biggest problem that teams have. And he's, I reached out to him. I have his email. I had to email him about something last year and actually had him up in the radio station just kind of out of nowhere in our email. I was on the radio when

he answered my email back. And before you know it, an hour and a half later, He was up in studio with us. Great kid, great demeanor, very upbeat. And I think he's going to come back and be the same guy he was headed into the draft. Unfortunately, you know, these things happen. And I saw some comments about, well, he shouldn't have even been out there. I understand what people say, anytime there's an injury, an unfortunate injury that happens, it could happen anywhere.

But when it happens, people say, okay, you shouldn't even be at the time. combine. You shouldn't even be at the pro day. Just trust the tape. Well, the tape is only one element. Teams really do find value in Combine. They find value in ProDay. All three elements you're competing. And they're seeing things.

They're seeing you. They're able to make comparisons against like players at your position. And like Nkobie Dean, he didn't run. Did he run? He didn't run. No. He worked out.

Well, he did positional drills, but he did not work or do that due testing. Do you remember what his size was at the Pro Day? Because he was 229 pounds. The point I'm going to make is that I thought 229 at the combine, I thought that's actually heavier than I was expecting, to be honest with you. And now they make you run the same day that you weigh, which I think is a good thing. You get a guy's real weight when he runs. When the Kobe Dean didn't run. And then at Pro Day, my guess is he's going to be close to the 229 again.

but he won't have run. He was 231 at the Georgia Pro Day. So, I mean, he got over the Magic 230. So he said, look, guys, look how big I am. But you'll notice he didn't run at either of those times. He's a good football player. I'm not really trying to single him out. What I'm trying to point out is that here's a guy who never ran.

And he could very honestly say, just look at the tape. You know what I can run. Yeah, but I'm curious as to what you weighed when you were playing. because he looked really small. He looked like a 22, 224-pound guy. That's just eyeballing it. But had he run at the combine, it would have confirmed, okay, he's 229 pounds, and he ran,

and especially at Indy, what would he have run? A 451 on that track at worst? It would have been a confirmation there that, okay, you can play it this weight and you run well at this weight. But, Dane, I think the NFL, I think there will be more players who will just run. randomly and selectively stop working out or not we're not going to bench, we're not going to run, and the teams are going to rely more heavily on GPS data in the future.

They already are starting to. It's really going to be a much bigger thing than a 40-yard dash even within two years. But there are certain things that teams want to see in terms of play strength and the way you move around athletically, just not, just deciding not to participate in the combine or pro day eventually will catch up with prospects i think some prospects and i think some not some will yeah and yeah it's an individual case by case basis i think the one argument i can get behind is if you work out and do everything at the combine then i i'm okay with you not working on the pro day i'm okay with that um you know you it's a job interview so you want to put the best foot forward with what you can do and so

if you decide to do some things of the combine some things at the pro day um some things at the pro day, okay. But if you want to do everything at the pro day and skip the combine, okay, if you want to do everything at the combine and then skip the pro day, that's fine too. So, you know, as long as you're doing everything that teams want to see you do, I'm okay with that. I don't, I don't, there's not necessarily a need for you to have to repeat yourself at both the combine and the pro day. So I can get behind that argument. But, you know, again, this is a job interview process. And teams, in order to best understand who you are and what you're going to bring to the team, you do need to see more than just what's on the tape. And it's something that for, especially for some of these

players that are not first round locks, they desperately need to do that in order for teams to get on board. Because if you don't run, if you don't, then you're probably hiding something. And that's the attitude scouts will take. If you choose not to run or do a certain drill throughout the process, scouts are going to think you can't do that drip. And whether that's fair or not, I think that's reality. That's perspective from these scouts. Now, I mean, do you, let me ask you this, Lance, in, you know, three years from now, what do you think pro days are going to look like?

Do you think, like, how much different do you think we're talking with these things? Because I tell you what, talking with scouts, talking with agents, talking with other people, you hear so many different opinions. There's some people that believe that it's going to be, you have to pay. Teams are going to have to pay to go to a pro day. These athletes will own, you know, they will monetize their ability to work out. And so if a team wants to attend Michigan's Pro Day, they have to pay a certain fee. You know, each player will own their testing data.

So, you know, they can access all of this data. I can tell you this. The NFL will no longer, the NFL. just won't teams en masse. You'll have massive amounts of teams who won't even come out then. Yeah, probably. And you'll have one team that will pay, and then they'll share the data with their friends who are in the league office.

They'll kick them some money or whatever, and that's how that will work. Like, if they try to do that, the NFL teams will just say, the NFL teams just won't show up. I mean, you're already seeing fewer and fewer coaches. Remember what the senior bowl look like for us? eight years ago. Yeah.

All coaches, the entire head coaches, the entire coaching staff. Now it's almost no coaches. Now we're starting to see GMs. Now we saw coaches, and now we're seeing coaches who didn't show up at the combine. Right. You think they'll go to your pro day? No, they won't. I still think it's unfortunate because there are players who understand the value,

who really helped themselves in the process, the pro day process, and hurt themselves. I'm getting the results back right now real time on Jalen Weidermeyer and really the entire A&M Pro Day. And it was a slow, slow 40 time for a lot of guys. I've got Jane Slater has Spiller running in the high four-sixes. She has Weidermeyer at 503, which I think was the official time. 503 with the vertical jump under 26. That is offensive line. That is offensive line stuff.

that vertical and that and he didn't catch the ball well this year. So, you know, for some guys, it's going to hurt them. But honestly, his tape I didn't think was all, for me, I didn't love the tape anyway, this year. But there are other guys that really, really helps them. Like, I'm writing up, I found a kid named Montrelle Washington out of, and you probably know about him already, but Montreau, Washington out of Sanford, who went to the NFLPA game. He has a game against Florida that,

might be as impressive as maybe any receiver in the draft this year. You remember the famous, I'll never forget this, the famous Alvin Kamara game against Texas A&M where his tape is so good from Tennessee against Texas A&M that you'd swear he is a first round pick and a future pro bowler. And guess what? He was a future pro bowler in first, well, he wasn't a first round pick. But I mean, this guy is one of the highest paid running backs in the league right now. and that tape that you saw was unbelievable.

And I watched this. If you haven't seen this Montreau, Washington, have you watched the Florida game day? Yeah, yeah, I have. When I saw that he was on the NFLPA roster, I checked him out. And, yeah, he's, I mean, I don't know. Florida looked like so disinterested. So I, you know, I'm not, I don't want to take any credit away from Washington. Right.

He balled out. But, I mean, yeah, credit to him for taking advantage of that type of stage. We had a 98 yard. So he had like this incredible one-hand touchdown catch, one-on-one against the corner. He outraced two defensive backs for a 35-yard catchdown to field. He had 10 catches for like 153 yards, I think, a touchdown, a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown. And, you know, he's a guy that he hit my radar. And once again, I'm going through these guys at a different pace than a lot of people.

and I know he played in the NFLPA and I probably won't get to all the NFLPA because there's only a certain mile players I'm going to write up. But his pro day, there were some numbers in his pro day that say, okay, I need to go look at this guy. Pro day numbers, absolutely, in a 37-5 inch vertical, I think.

There are certain numbers for certain players where you say, uh-oh, Austin Echler was that guy for me. Austin Echler had such a huge pro day and finding tape on him was almost impossible. It was unbelievably difficult, but I'm like, this guy had a monster pro day.

I got to see what he's about because these traits a lot of times will get a guy drafted. Sure enough, there's some teams who didn't know a whole lot about him. I finally found one game and it wasn't great tape. And I gave him a late draftable grade, but he wouldn't have even hit the, he wouldn't have even hit radars if it wasn't for his pro day. And here he is is one of the more talented, you know, dual threat running backs in all of football. Well, and last year, uh, Kunae, a new Wongu.

from Iowa State. He was a guy that a scout, Midwest Scout, tipped me off that, you know, he's going to run pretty well. And, you know, he's a guy on the radar.

And then he goes to his pro day and at 210 pounds, runs a 4-3-1 with a 38-inch vert, 6833-3 cone. And, you know, he definitely made my sleepers article. And then he gets drafted, I think like the fifth round by the Vikings.

And he made it some impact plays for them. this year on special teams. So I think, and this is a good transition to something else I wanted to talk about, which is mining the pro days for prospects. And it's something that, you know, there's there's 324 athletes invited to the combine this year. And so, but every year we see 20, 30 guys that were not invited to the combine get drafted. And so at this point, the process is all about identifying who those guys are. And a lot of times, it's guys that test well at their pro day and show the athletic ability that teams want to see, that they want to develop. And, you know, for a lot of these players, you know, this is their opportunity, these pro days.

And so at this stage of the process, I think you and I are both kind of on the same page where we're mining for those guys. And the kid from Sanford's a good example. And Guangzhou from last year, I think there were a couple of guys that Wisconsin Pro day that caught my eye as okay I need to go back the cornerback and the safety yeah both of them had big pro days yeah so yeah I need to go back and watch more you know to find out okay is this is this legit is this they real guys uh so at this stage to me like that's that I know from my perspective that's what I'm focused on is trying to you know all the verified pro day information mining for the for the small school guys the lesser known prospects and then going back to find out if they're real

real you want to give you I'll unleash a guy. Here's a guy for you that's a that you have to mind for. He's a fairest state. I was just about to say I have written down Ferris State on my sheet in front of me. Jared Bernhardt. LaCross. There's two. Yeah, the lacrosse player. So he's a top lacrosse player at Maryland. And so I went and watched his tape. He's a he's a zone read quarterback in his one year at Maryland. He's got good feet. Like he's agile.

he can make guys miss. You can tell he can run a little bit. But I know from the New England Patriots, who was a, I'm forgetting the New England Patriot wide receiver, who was the lacrosse player who ended up making it in the league. But Chris something. Hogan. Yeah, Chris Hogan. So ever since Chris Hogan, I had an agent reach out and say, hey, this guy is going

to surprise some teams are kind of asking around about them. And so I'm waiting to see what his pro day looks like. but that's an example of a ghostless guy. So what we're doing is creating ghost lists, guys who could be drafted late. Because if you're drafted, I have to write you up. So there's nothing I hate worse than after the long process of the draft is over when I have to still write up players because I didn't write them up in the first 500. So that's an example.

Jared Bernhardt, wide receiver slash athlete. He's a quarterback in his one year at Ferris State, but he's more likely to be a wide receiver. Yeah, that's all right. the guys that we have to, yeah, these are what, these are the guys we have to chase down. And there's another one who is a quarterback, Armani Rogers, who is going to be a tight end out of Ohio. So now I got to go watch his.

Yeah, I got to go watch his quarterback tape and see if I can figure out how I write him up as a tight end. Yeah, exactly. He ran some routes at the shrine. So if you watch the shrine practices, you can get some. Okay, I'll do that. Yeah, get a look there. But, yeah, he's a guy that's going to get drafted. I don't know how high, but I think he's going to get drafted.

a 4-5 at his pro-day. He's got athleticism. So there's something to work with there with Armani Rogers. But yeah, that's kind of where we're at. What other, do you have any other numbers from that Texas A&A? This is real-time, Texas A&M Pro Day going on right now. Any other? By the way, we had 14 offensive linemen run better than a 503 at this year's combine.

So not great for the tight end. I mean, I liked, based off his junior tape or sophomore tape, watching him over the summer, I liked Whitemeyer. I thought, okay, if this guy has a big year, we're talking about him as a top 50 player possibly. Well, watching games, I liked him. Like watching games, but then when I turned on the tape, you know, he just, he's not a blocker. And then he didn't look the same this year. He did not look the same this year.

But, you know, he's got his pet route that he does. He runs that little post corner where he is just really unstoppable. I can't, I can't explain it. But so many of his touchdowns have come on the same route. But yeah, that's, I don't know, he did not look the same this year. Eight drops this year. That's something that you worry about. Eight drops, my gosh.

I just kept waiting for the big play that never happened. Like his career, he had 118 catches in three years, pretty good production with 118 catches. But of those 118 catches, only four resulted in a play of 30. plus yards. And so he's just, he's not that playmaker that's going to consistently stretch the seam that, you know, safeties are going to have to worry about. He has decent size. So, like, I mean, he can body up and post up. But at the same time, he's just not a guy that's going to scare defenses. So I got a lot of questions when he was not in my, my top 100 before the combine. But honestly, he wasn't really even a consideration for the top 100 when you, when you

No, this tape is, he's not, he was not one of the top tight ends. So, I mean, maybe you're looking at him as a potential red zone guy, but supposedly the Aggies knew he was going to, the Aggies had told some, at least people I knew had talked inside the program and they thought he's going to run a 4-9. So that's not great. I mean, when they know he's going to run a 4-9, and when you watch him on tape, he's not a fast guy on tape. No. I would have put him, I would have put him in the low, I would have guessed low 4-8s on tape. 100%. that's fair.

Low 4-8s, yeah, I think that would be been a fine time for him. And maybe if he ran on that fast track in Indy, maybe he could have hit that. I don't know, but it's surprised he ran. If he's going to turn in a time in the fives, surprised he even ran at all. So any other pro days you come across that,

but those are good examples. And then also, I want to ask you, you know, you've made some changes in your rankings on NFL.com based off of combine and updated tape and pro days and things, give me one or two guys that maybe changed the most for you based off of updated information. Is there one or two guys that stand out as, you know, when you went back and watched more tape where you saw the metrics, the testing numbers, anything like that really alter your opinion based off of where you think they'll be drafted?

Yeah, I would say, well, obviously Trayvon Walker is the first one. I mean, come on over. I know. And so here's the thing. So I don't think he's going to be the rusher that a lot of you guys do. Yeah. But I said, well, wait, I've been writing that he's an elite run defender. So there's two, you know, sometimes, and this is probably my mistake, I spend too much time on the run game with offensive linemen and the pass rush with defensive lineman.

The fact is, past protection is an important part of being an offensive alignment. It's probably the most important. I spend a lot of time on past protection. I don't want it to sound that way. But I mean, a lot of times I'll start with your run blocking. But there are plenty of guys that are not great run blockers, not even good run blockers, who play in the league because they can protect the quarterback. But at the same time, Trevon Walker, you can't like, he's going to be into guys much, much quicker.

I just know this. Players who look like Trevon Walker, who have the arm length of Trouin Walker, who tests like Trouin Walker, typically end up becoming really good players. You can look at guys like J.J.J. Watt, like Jadavion Clowny, and I know Clowny's not a, you know, a superstar. He's a very good player. Mario Williams, you can look at, it's just guys don't, are not going to be in the 270s and potentially a frame to carry in the 280s.

run like that, jump like that, move like that. And I think the most staggering thing with him was the way that he moved in the field. I thought his field drills were really, really impressive. So he's one guy that I'm giving you who moved way up my board. I have to take the 40-yard dashes with a grain of salt. So just because I see a 4-3-9, in most years I would have went, wow, this year I'm just like, huh, ho-hum, everyone's running into 4-3s because it's. They put new track in, and, you know, in 2020, it's the first combine there.

So I couldn't get too, too excited about that. I'm looking here. Tyler Smith, I was already, well, I already liked Tyler Smith, but I already understand he's high. You know, he's very high ceiling, lower floor because of some of his issues. Here's one that I just dropped yesterday, Kyler Gordon. I was actually surprised that Kyler Gordon did not test as well as I expected. I thought he was going to be a much, much better tester than he ended up being, and he wasn't. Nick Cross had to bump Nick Cross a little bit.

I like the tape, but then when the traits just popped as much as they did, that's some pretty rare stuff for his size. He's got great size, super explosive. He's a very physical, aggressive safety. Those guys, just like you saw with Keanu Neal, I mean, they get drafted higher. So Nick Cross would be one of those guys. And also, Lewis Seen from Georgia, I did not expect him to have the workout that he had. That was really, really impressive.

I mean, across the board. And I don't doubt the, my only thing was he's 199 pounds, but I just think he doesn't have the same. He's an aggressive guy, too. I just don't feel like he's A. I think he's kind of averaging coverage. And I don't feel like he is that big stopping power of a 200 plus safety. He'll hit you hard, but he doesn't carry that. that same weight with him where he just can automatically stop guys in their track.

But he's a ferocious hitter. But his workout, but here's one where I talked to, I had sources who told me that he was a genius on the whiteboard, that his understanding of the defense was so good. He was so highly intelligent. And that's one of those things that as much as a testing, Dane, caused me to move him up a little bit on my board. Yeah. And I, Lewis seen reminds me a lot of Xavier McKinney when he was coming out of Alabama about two years ago.

Giants took him early second round. Seeing it's probably going to go in the same range, probably even very easily could go in the backhand, back half of round one. That type of player who has good tape, but the testing numbers, that's only going to help him, you know, vault him up a little bit. So that's a good one. Let me, let me, let's finish with this. And this kind of goes back to the Trouin Walker discussion. Let's say Aidan Hutchinson goes one, which he's the betting favorite to be the first overall pick. When you look at Brandon Shurf going to the Jags, I mean, Cam Robinson being tagged,

I don't think that has that much bearing on what they do. But let's just say Aidan Hutchinson is the number one overall pick, which is very realistic. The Lions at number two become really, really interesting because the Aiden Hutchinson fit is just a marriage made in heaven. it just makes too much sense. But if he's off the board, he's not an option. So the lion, and let's say for just this argument, they can't trade out. There's no one that wants to trade up with them. They're stuck at number two.

What direction do they go? I was fascinated now. I have to look where I saw it. But for at least one betting outlet, Malik Willis is the betting favorite to go number two, which kind of blows my mind. Who do you think the line, if you had a guess right now, and Aidan Hutchinson is off the board. Where do you think the Lions go at number two?

I mean, I just think you take the best offensive alignment available. I think you take the best player available. To me, don't get cute with it. I think Evan Neal's better than Penae Sewell, first and foremost. And to me, I would personally, I would draft him ahead of Sewell. But I don't care, even if he is. So you play Neil at Guard? I'll play Neil at Guard.

I may play Seul a guard. I don't know. I mean, Penae's got this great. testing. But I'll play, here's what I'll do. I'll stack my offensive line with good players, and I'll count on Swift to run the ball effectively. And what I'll do is I'll start changing for the first time in forever the lions start running a ball. I think that's the real key is build the fronts. So anytime you have a chance to build your offensive fronts or defensive fronts, you do it. And for me, I don't, unless somebody convinces me that the lions are the best offensive

line in the league, which they're not, I don't see why you're not. either Icky or Evan Neal, who both can play tackle or guard. Icky, to me, has the body type to play guard, and he hasn't had to do it at all. I don't think at North Carolina State. Evan Neal has played guard before, so I know he can play guard. So if you want to play either of these guys at guard and then bump them out to tackle, at some point that's fine, left tackle, right tackle, move Penae Soule to right tackle. I don't care how it is.

Just get me some good blockers who can help unleash swift. can help take my offense to the next level. That's what I'm trying to do. And I'm trying to just get good football players. Now, if somebody wants to give me a huge haul, if I'm the Lions and somebody wants to move up to two, and they want to give me the fifth pick, if I'm the Giants, and the Giants say, all right, we will give you our fifth pick now

and we'll give you our first next year. Just for example, I'm just throwing it out there. That's no brain. Okay, okay, I'm doing that. If the Jets say, or no, if the Carolina Panthers say, okay, you know what? They don't have the draft capital. I can't do them. But maybe the Lions, maybe the Jets say, hey, we want to move up from 10 to 2.

And we'll give you a first round pick next year. Okay. I might consider doing that as well. Now, you don't want to talk yourself out of a highly graded player. But at the same time, this draft, as you know, it's not loaded at the top end, but it gets it gets pretty equal from about picks number 10 to, you know, 24 in that neighborhood, 22. So maybe 10 to 18. So you have a chance, I think, to be very smart and bolster, turn a dollar into $1.25.

Let me put it that way. But at the same time, if you have Icky or Evan Neal drafted highly enough, then you sit down and take it because no one ever went wrong building their off building into a good offensive line it's never it's never been a bad mistake yeah and i think that that makes sense uh that that's probably the direction i would have gone to or i would have said because i mean he started i think four games at left guard last year so i mean he's got that he's got that experience he can do it no problem um and uh there's even chatter out there um just you know talking with uh people around the league about the lions uh looking to what it would cost to move up to number one to get Hutchinson and avoid even having that

scenario. But I also think Trouon Walker should be in that conversation at number two of, you know, if you're going to build in the lines, in the trenches, offensive line, defensive line, I think Trouon Walker would make a lot of sense with the time, especially the timeline, the lions are on. They're not winning the division in 2022. And so you can afford to pick a guy who doesn't need to be the rest. rookie of the year in year one, but by year two, you're expecting him to be an impact guy for you.

And Trouin Walker, that's certainly a realistic trajectory, I think, for him. So I think the only other, I mentioned Malik Willis being the betting favorite number two. How do you, how do you, how do you, how do you, you read something like that, how do you respond? I just think that's crazy. I don't, I mean, I just, there is, it's, it's really incomprehensible. if you get through the whole tape, a year of tape, I'll tell you what, if you watch the Ole Miss game against Matt Corral,

there is no way you would have left that game at any point and said, you know what, I can still see Malik Willis as a first round pick. It was hard enough stretching it all the way into the first round. To say he would be a top five pick based on a couple of throws at the senior ball and then a combine workout. Yeah. And he didn't even work. I mean, a combine workout, that's like...

Twitter's a lot higher on Leak Willis than I think a lot of other people. Way, way, way higher. I don't think he, can he pick? I mean, to me, this quarterback class, in any other quarterback class, these guys would all struggle to get into the back end of the first. And now, and I get quarterbacks get pushed up. And I'm not saying that Willis or Pickett might not end up at number six at Carolina, but a betting favor to be the second pick of the draft, man, you have to literally set aside

some really bad decision making and some inaccurate passing on tape against lesser competition. I recognize the pass protection was not great, but some of that he brought on himself too. So, yeah, that's hard for me to wrap my head around based on just watching actually all the tape. every one of these quarterbacks has concerns in terms of giving them a first round grade. Every single one of them that you talk about. I don't think Sam Howell is anywhere near a first round quarterback. And we can point to pluses and minus is like I think Willis has really good upside, really good upside.

But the floor is just super low. And one of the things that you like seeing is players at lower levels of competition. Now, Liberty plays a more diverse schedule. but you want to see them dominate. You want to see him dominate more with the arm, not just the leg. You want to see them dominate. And there's just not enough tape of Malik Willis dominating. You see the flashes, and I'm all for grading the flashes,

and that's why I can get behind drafting him in the first round and maybe picking him higher than you want to. But like top two is a different, that's a different conversation to me. Right. I agree. And that's, I am very, very blown away by, by that. And I have not talked to anyone in the league that is even mentioned anything close to that. Now, could one of these quarterbacks sneak into the top 10?

Yeah, I think that's – we've talked about it before. I think that's possible. Especially you look at Carolina at 6, striking out with Deshaun Watson. You know, their plans be, C, and D, not panning out at quarterback. You know, they're still kind of – without – second or third round pick, they're still trying to figure out what's the best course of action here. The coach is on the hot seat. So there's a lot of flux going on with Carolina.

But could you see them drafting a quarterback at six? Yeah, I think that's whether or not they should. That's different. But is it realistic? Yeah, I think it is. At the end of the day, yes or no, do you think a quarterback gets drafted top 10 this year? Yes. Okay.

There's too many needy teams. And, yeah, just too many needy teams. Yeah, I think there will be a quarterback draft at top two. And it'll be interesting. I don't think there's two. I don't think there's two. No, and I agree with that. I'm on the fence right now.

I would say no. I'm sorry to think Pickett is going to be the guy too. Yeah, picket should be the first quarterback. The more I dig around, I think I think Pickett is going to be the first one. Yeah, no, I agree. And I, to be honest, I thought that the entire way. Pickett should be the first quarterback. I think he will be the first quarterback.

I just, I don't think Atlanta goes quarterback. I just, with their timeline that they're on, I think that you're fine with Marriota as your quarterback next year, and then you're probably going to be in the race for a quarterback in next year's class. Seattle's the wild card. I would not be surprised at whatever they, the roster needs a lot of help, but they need a quarterback.

And if they love one of these guys, Pete Carroll is up, you know, he is the oldest coach, or maybe behind Belichick, I can't remember. But he's one of the, oldest coaches. He's not ready for a long-term rebuild here. He wants to go win. You know, what do they trade for Baker Mayfield? There's still some quarterback dominoes that need to fall here that'll help give us a clearer picture of the first round and what the quarterbacks are going to do. But I think right now I'd lean towards no. And maybe we see,

you know, like the Steelers move up to 11 or something and get and draft picket. I don't know exactly what's going to happen. But it's, it's tough to figure out. I'll tell you what, there's a lot of people in the NFL that have no clue how this is going to shake out as well. No. It's going to be interesting. So we'll continue to monitor it. That's going to do it for us this week. Remember, keep reading Lance's work at NFL.com.

All his evaluations and rankings of these prospects. Look for my draft guide. It's coming in the next few weeks. The Beast will be ready. So look forward to that. If you're a subscriber to the Athletic, it's included. Where'd you get to name the Beast? Where'd the Beast come from?

No idea, to be honest with you. Someone named it that. years ago and I tried to avoid it, but it stuck and people kept going with it. So I finally- Why would you avoid it? That's beautiful. Because I don't know. It's too self-serving, you know? Like, I don't know. But people kept going with it.

And so eventually I reluctantly, I said, all right, let's just, that's, let's go with it. And so I've learned to love it. And so I lovingly refer to it as the beast now. And so that'll be ready here in the next few weeks. Once we get past all these pro days, I want to make sure all the pro day information's in there. I think the last one's April 6th, April 5th, around there. And they're important ones. Derek Stingley at LSU, Drake London at USC.

So still some important pro days here that we need to get the information for. So look for that. Thanks for listening. Thanks for reviewing. And we'll talk to you next week. This was the Athletic Football Show.