The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2023 NFL Season Predictions: Super Bowl Champ, Division Winners, Award Winners, and more

Episode Date: September 7, 2023

The 2023 NFL season is here! Robert Mays and Nate Tice celebrate by making their full slate of predictions for the season ahead. The guys pick division champs and wild card teams, name award winners and stat champions, and wrap it all up with their MVP and Super Bowl picks.Follow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Nate on X: @Nate_TiceSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeThis episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/MAYS and get on your way to being your best self.This episode is sponsored by Sleep Number®: Save $400 on the New Sleep Number® c4 smart bed. Plus, special financing for a limited time. Only at Sleep Number® stores or sleepnumber.com. Sleep Number. The Official Sleep and Wellness Partner of the National Football League. See store for details.Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period at shopify.com/mays. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing well. It's Eve.

It's season Eve. We're here. We're here. I got my final fantasy football draft tonight, my high school one that I've won once, and the only time I won it, it's always on Yahoo. The only time I've ever won it was the one year that we did AOL back in like 2007 or eight. Oh my God.

on the history of our league, it never happened. So it's the only, it's the one I care about the most. And yeah, I'm very, very excited for that. But I'm very excited for the season. I even wear a college shirt. Like, look at this. I'm ready to go. I love this episode.

Love throwing out these takes, throwing some names out there, some bets out there. This is one of my favorite episodes we do. I say that about 40 of them, but still it is. Season starting, here we go. Doing our predictions today. We're picking award winners. We're doing division winners. We're picking our Super Bowl.

I had such a hard time. We'll talk about it when we get there. But every year, I feel like I have a good sense by the end of it. It's like, yeah, this is my Super Bowl pick. And I feel decent about this. I did not feel that way this year. There are just so many different ways that you could go, even with some of the playoff teams, especially in the AFC.

We'll get into all of that. So we're picking our winners for all the awards and our favorite bets for most of those awards as well. Just a long shot that we like for one reason or another. So we'll throw out both of those for. pretty much every single relevant award. And then we also pick receiving champ, passing champion and rushing champion as well. We done that last year.

And it's always fun. I can't wait to see who your version of Elijah Mitchell is this year for the Russian champion. But we will get into all of those. I can say that about Alvin Camara for you, right? Did I pick Alvin Camara last year? Yeah.

Oh my God. I think it was our, it wasn't our real pick. It was the bet pick. And I went, Elon. Because I pick Nick Chubb for the real one. Yeah.

And I did. Alvin Camara. I think maybe I did Sequan. I think I did for mine, which, yeah. Yeah, I don't want to get ahead of myself. But it's, yeah, but that was, yeah, no, we went Eli Mitchell and Alvin Camara. It's probably best that we haven't revisited those. Dennis Allen was my coach of the year pick, I think.

Yeah, I think we both had the Saints as a playoff team. Yep, because they weren't a trendy pick to make the playoffs. Obviously, now they're the favorite to win the NFC South. Well, I think plenty of NFC takes over the course of this show. So don't want to spoil any of those. Before we get. Former S NFC South podcast. just one team

and FC Central just the one team before we get any of those picks though let's talk about a few news items that we have not hit on this show I would like to thank Nick Posa's representation

the San Francisco 49ers and Adam Schaefter for not breaking this after we finish recording this episode five minutes before five minutes before not five minutes after

even if it's 30 seconds before that's totally fine news came out this afternoon Nick Posa gets a five-year, $170 million deal with $122 million guaranteed from the San Francisco 49ers. He is now the highest paid non-quarterback in NFL history. Aaron Donald was at $31 million. The edge rusher market was at $28 million before Nick Bosa got this deal.

So this thing just blows out every single non-quarterback contract in the league and in history totally out of the water. What did you make of this? It's a lot of money, but he's a really, really, really good player. And the reigning defensive player of the year. And I think it was justified even if there was competition and young. And he had the one injury, you know, he got banged up a little bit last year, but he, the injury that wiped him out from the one season. But he's, when he's playing, he's a dominant force ever since his rookie year.

And you got to pay that. And I think, I think it's some of that kind of cat, or, you know, what is it called, like dollar shock like price sticker sticker shock like when you when you see it but it makes more sense when you kind of like think about it okay best player that one of the best players in the league very young still good like it's going to be good no matter who's a defensive coordinator there uh i think just that's the guys you have to pay it's just a lot of money but i don't know if you have to go three million dollars over the next highest paid defensive player i we're going to talk to diana tomorrow we're going to talk to diana on tomorrow show i'm very curious about the

machinations of this negotiation that That's a huge markup over everything else. So good for Nick Bose's people. They were willing to ride this thing out. And you get to the end at the start of the season, the Niners understand how important he is. It's like, all right, what do we have to do to make this thing happen? And it seems to be that's where they landed.

This is good news for a few different people. One, if I'm Justin Jefferson's agent, this is now the number. The wide receiver market was at 30. So why shouldn't this increase? this increase look the same as it did for Nick Bosa over the rest of the edge rusher market. If I'm his agent, I want to be the highest paid non-quarterback ever. So I'm coming in with this number now, not with the Devante Adams Tyreek Hill numbers.

So good for Justin Jefferson's people and good for all the edge rushers that want to get paid this spring. Roshan Gary, Brian Burns, who's going through a negotiation right now, even a guy like Montez sweat. Now if you're Rashon Gary's people, you can come in and just be like, all I want is like $28 million a year. Yeah. Just give me the T.J. Watt number. I'm not even asking for anything close to boats some money. I want 80%. Hey, 80%. Right? That's a. They seem like the good guys. Rising tide lifts all boats here with the edge rush or market and with these contracts in general. You're right. The cap is going up. I don't think it's something that's going to bury them by any stretch. But to see this sort of markup over the rest of the market, it was a little bit surprising. I just don't remember a jump like this at any position really that we've seen recently.

And like even it shocked me too because like think of like, you know, a tackle like Andrew Thomas who just signed a deal. Like this is way over that. Yeah. Like that's that's like significantly. And that kind of surprised me too. It's like I thought that would get a bump up or be more near that. Maybe in between the high end defensive number and what these guys are getting. So yeah, it just shows it's like this is the position that's going to give value just like you're saying with Jefferson to.

The good players are going to get paid. It's like they are going to get paid. They're going to get a lot of money. And I mean, but you guys just think, too, it's like with Bosa is the QB hit number is the one that I always bring up because it always stands out to me. He had the best non-JJ-J-J-Watt season as far as QB knockdowns and they have reflected with the sacks. He actually got unlucky with his sack number. So it's kind of crazy to have that much significance, that much impact on every quarterback on every passing game no matter what. It's like those are the guys you pay.

It's like this is a real deal guy or real league guy. That's why he gets paid as the highest non-quarterback ever. A lot of the elite edge rushers in the league have already gotten paid. Miles Garrett already got paid. T.J. Watt already got paid. So I don't know how much that market will be affected. You know, Rishon Gary is a very good player. But with receivers, I will be curious if we get to a tipping point.

With edge rushers, I don't think that tipping point exists. We've talked about scarcity at that position. The best guys probably deserve to get paid because it's hard to find alternatives. But at receiver, I wonder what ends up happening. Talking to people this summer GMs, just about how. how that market might unfold. It does feel like there's going to be like quarterbacks, a set of guys at the top that are worth $35 million a year, $32 million a year,

and then everyone else, if you pay them that, you might run into some trouble. That's a conversation about when Justin Jefferson gets his extension, but just something to keep in mind as we think about these markets fluctuating. Just wait for that. Micah Parsons number, in a couple of years. I guess he can get extended after this year.

So after this year. So he would be the next one maybe in line. And I'm sure he's going to be looking for something. very similar and I would if I were him. One other bit of news. We have not talked about this at all. The news came out after we last recorded. Travis Kelsey hyper extends his knee at practice.

He has a bone bruise, according to Adam Schaefter. It sounds like, so he is questionable as his destination. It sounds like he might push to play. I wanted to just ask you, what does the Chief's offense with this group of skill position players will even look like without Travis Kelsey as they face off against the Lions tomorrow? Yeah, it's, I actually looked at as soon as I saw that news, because I'm writing about this right now, about that first the Lions Chiefs game is Mahomes targeted tight ends at the second highest rate against man coverage. And that's significant because, well, Travis Kelsey is his best player, but also the Lions run man coverage more than anybody.

And they did that heavily in the preseason too. So I do not think that's going away. It might have more change of us, but doesn't look like their fastball is changing at all. He was tied for fourth in targets against man's coverage in 2022. and 24 of those targets went for a first down. That was first in the league. So this matters. Obviously, he's a really good player.

Even if he's hobbled or banged up, it changes a lot because the Lions have added to their DB room to have a little bit more talent, a little bit more juice, and the Chiefs are figuring out all their other receivers. I think one thing, though, is the Lions ran all that men coverage and they do all that. They cannot stop the run, and they really didn't add too much to their front to stop the run. And the Chiefs are one of the top 10 rushing teams. So I think that's what they're going to lean on. think it's Mahomes is just going to spread the rock.

They're going to find one of those matchups. We've talked about the Lions have improved their DB room. It's not like overwhelming. So I think all those guys, all those options, he's going to spread the ball around and find their best option if Kelsey is out or even Kelsey is hobbled. So I really just think it's going to spread the ball every work. Everyone finishes like three to five catches. And I think they're going to pound the rock over and over and over against his front against the lines.

Yeah, not a good note on which to start the season if you're the Chiefs. Chris Jones probably not playing unless he gets an extension. And even with that, it seems like there's no way you can get there. to play by Thursday. And then Travis Kelsey, if he does play, will not be at 100%. So a lot of- moved like almost three points, like two and a half points. It's like, yeah.

I mean, two of the chiefs, three best players potentially won't play in the game. So that has a huge impact. So just something to keep in mind as we move a little bit closer toward tomorrow night's opener. All right. Let's get into this. We're going to do just like the Oscars, where we do a couple of the big ones at the top. And then we get into the technical awards in the middle.

and then we'll finish up with MVP and our playoffs. That's exactly how we're doing it too. It's like this is best actor is coming up. I think that's what we're starting. Best supporting on each side is typically how they start the awards. I love the Oscars. You can't tell. I'm a huge Oscars fan.

That's awesome. That's really funny. I knew it was one of the acting awards, but that's fantastic that we're starting with this. All right. Let's do it. Defensive Player of the Year. We're each going to do a pick for the award that we think is going to win.

And then our favorite bet, according to bad NGM and the odds that are currently available. So who is your pick for a defensive player of the year in 2023? I was my pick last year, and I'm not changing. I'm going with Michael Parsons with defensive player of the year. Just a incredible player, force of nature, and with head-to-head with Bosa's most impactful edge in the league. So it's just, I think this is his year he finally gets there.

He's going to be a full-time edge. There's no more games at linebacker, no more snaps at like true off-ball linebacker. They're going to move him around. weapons around him so they can't true offense is can't truly focus on him so he's at plus 450 he's chalk right now but i'm betting that and honestly i'll get to my like betting selection to explain like my process later but i think this is micha parsons's year i think the cowboy's defense is year we both picked the cowboy's defense as the number one defense in the league heading into the season i also am picking micaw parsons to be the defensive player of the year it just feels like

this is going to be his year nick bosa won it last year it's really hard to win it two years in a row Aaron Donald, at this stage of his career, combined with where the Rams are at, I think he's no longer just the simple favorite. So we said this the other day, I think that Mike Parsons has a chance to just have a nuclear type season, like a 20-sack type season where he's just the most dominant player in football. The other guy I would throw out that we was the favorite for a couple years was a very common pick from people. But just like you mentioned, help and what that means for his season potentially is Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett. This might be the season where even though he's no longer in the top. two, even three betting favorites. I think he's eight to one right now to win it. That's a sneaky

one where I think this honestly might be his best chance when you look at the rest of the Browns defense and the rest of the Brown's defensive line. Correct. Can't add to your points there because that's what, and with Jim Schwartz just letting them tee off. Yep. Yep. That's another great point. And they're more, they might be in leads more. So he can tee off with opponents having to pass ball. It's just a better game script for him. Like you said, better surroundings. This is what I was going to say is as a as a betting man which I am what I did was I split the bets between Parsons and Garrett and I just was like I'm good with that I think that's great plan yeah and that's that's my play for this this pick this year and I just think just what you said I think these two just are really

set up for nuclear years your favorite bet for defensive player of the year I'm really curious what you're going with here so there's my bets but my bomb is make a Fitzpatrick which I explained that's right yes yes at 100 to 1 right now um If you want to listen to that episode, it came out earlier this week and we made some bullet predictions. Or how do we frame it? It would not be surprised. I would not be surprised. I would not be surprised if McA Fitzpatrick won defensive player.

He's out 100 to 1 for a reason. The last defensive player a year from the DB room was Stefan Gilmore in 2019. Troy Paul Mollow was the last safety. But I think that Steelers defense is everyone's on notice about them. I think they're extremely talented. I think that they're going to split the sacks. so T.J. Watt won't get as much of that hoopla around him. And I think McA Fitzpatrick's going to get unlocked.

And they use him in a role that he can make impact on plays because they free him up so much to just be a monster back. So yeah, I've talked myself more into this. It started as a bit, but now I'm like truly actually, I put a little sprinkling on it. Just to make sure I can have a little wager on it as well. I like that one a lot. We talked about that on the last show. I don't think we need to belabor that. I'm going with Quinn Williams at 30 to 1.

It's hard to win this as a defensive tackle. you need really good counting stats. But he's already shown the ability to do that. He had 12 sacks last year. He had 28 quarterback hits, 12 TFLs, and those numbers aren't a product of luck. On a per snap basis, he was the most impactful interior pass rusher in the NFL,

according to PFF last season. He had 52 pressures on not a ton of snaps compared to some other guys in the league. He finished top two in quarterback hits, according to PFF. He had 14. So I think that there is a chance he can post similar numbers again, maybe even crank those numbers a little bit higher. If he gets 14, 15 sacks for a defense that should be in the conversation the entire season, he absolutely would be in the conversation to win this.

And at 30 to 1, I think that's actually pretty juicy and pretty fun. Love that. And Jets have a lot of eyeballs on them. Exactly. And if they make the playoffs, yeah, no, narrative-wise, that makes a ton of sense. I love Quinn Williams. And also, what I always love about them is not just on third down. It's first and second down.

He ends drives before they can even get going. So I love that about him. So he'll impact the run and the pass. Love Quinn Williams. Love that pick. 31 is a great price for him. So yeah, fantastic call here. Offensive player of the year.

Who is your winner for offensive player of the year? Hopefully Bellar could have sorted through my notes here to figure this one out. But my offensive player of the year, because I like my actual thoughts, I talked or I wrote my notes like how my brain was thinking. But I'm going with CMC, Chris McCaffrey. God damn it. So am I. No way. Oh, but I will say as a bet like the Justin Jefferson at 13 to 1 is a fantastic price. Like that, that one is like, it's hard to do it two years in a row. That's, that's it. I do have money on that one. But I went with CMC.

In fact, yeah, on the 40-N-Ires teams. I don't really have to sell you this. But the touchdowns will get a bump. I mean, last year you finished, what, 1,800 yards, total, total yards, 12 touchdowns as he was learning a new offense. And they had a whole offseason. They've kind of like, even. short up the offensive line a little bit. There's another year of them jelling. Man, and they can keep them fresher. I like, I like Mason and, of course. So that's my only concern is that they may not throw a ton of work on him because

their goals are bigger than him breaking some statistical records. So that's really my biggest concern. I think if they use him at a pretty big clip the entire year, he absolutely can have 2,000 total yards and 1,000 and 1,000. And if he does that, if he gets 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards, done. And then you can pencil it in if the Niners are even decent. And I think they will be. Yeah. No, that's it. But I actually, like the Eli Mitchell numbers were sometimes warped because that was like the fourth quarter where they're kind of like, blowing teams out. Yeah. So, but like that's,

that's the hang up with this bet. Because that's exactly what I was kind of right like getting at. And also just, I mean, if he finished he said, he was at 1,800 and a dozen. And it even like, yes, he felt impactful. But it wasn't like where everyone was like, wow, you know, look at what he did. It's, that's, that's a quiet 1800 yards and a dozen touchdowns. So now imagine he had 10 touchdowns and 10 starts with the 49ers. Man, if he just keeps near that pace, I know it's a high pace, but I think he can do it, especially with this offense. Yeah, why can't he have 2,000 total yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns this year?

It's not hard to imagine at all. It's not hard. No, no, it's just a little bit of a stretch. So that's also my pick. I don't have a lot to add there. It was exactly the same thinking. Who is your favorite bet for offensive player of the year? I think I already know this one because you threw this out on the other show.

Yeah, it's Bejohn Robinson. It's at 30 to 1 now. It was 66 to 1 when I brought it up the other day. So within a week, it's gotten down to 30 to 1. Not saying I had any of a pack. No, I don't listen to me of my touts. But I just like this bomb. Same thinking with CMC.

Total yards, touchdowns, what they can use, again, I think it's going to underrated. For a guy with this level of talent and who's going to be a story, the moment he starts doing something in NFL games, that's going to get in. half after week one if he has a decent game against Carolina. Because he's guaranteed for 20 touches. Like that's like no matter how you shake it. I know Tyler O'Gier, but that's going to be a role. Like they're going to use them as a hammerhead.

So I don't know. I just see the path for this. Like I've talked myself more into it. I think, oh, I did find another rookie running back that one offensive player of the year because it was the UPI offensive player of the year and not AP. And that was Eric Dickerson. So just, you know, Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, you know, just, you know, easy guys to replicate at the NFL level.

But Bejohn's super talented. I like what the Falcons are doing. I think they're going to pound the rock with him and give plenty of touches that he can maybe sweep up this award somehow, some way. Bejohn is also my favorite bet, but I had one that was the same odds that I want to throw out as well. Yeah. Tony Pollard. If Tony Pollard gets a massive workload in that offense and the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the league the entire season,

I think that he absolutely could be in that conversation. So those are the two that same odds, same kind of thinking that I have. thought we were thrown out there. And I couldn't wait to give these away that I spoiled both of them on a different show. So I, uh, that's how I've been keyed in on these for the last couple of weeks. But I, yeah, I like that. I like the, I like the Tony Pollard one. Coach of the Year. Who is your pick for Coach of the Year? Sean Payton. Sean Peyton. It's so easy to imagine. It is so easy to imagine. I don't blame you for doing this at all. It's actually, he's at 11 to 1 right now. This award is just a grab bag.

It's, I mean, I think what was Daibel at like 40 to one last year? I don't even know. Something like that. Yeah, but yeah, Champagne. It's just if Russell Wilson looks decent again and they make the playoffs somehow, some way. Yeah, I think he gets the tout. He has name recognition already. The name and recognition is there.

And this is typically how the award is handed out. You find the guy who their team did not make the playoffs. They were disappointing the year before. They come in and they do so much better. Last year, there were too many of those options. So the guy I'm going to pick is, I think, a year after we're going to have a similar conversation. But that was the case with Brian Dable last year. It was the case with Doug Peterson last year.

And so Brian Dable ended up winning it. That's typically how the winner of this unfolds. And that's why I think Sean Payton is a very good pick. Dan Campbell is currently the betting favorite. I think the expectations for the Lions are too high for him to potentially win this award this year. They would have to, like, I think people are expecting like 13 wins out of them. I mean, I'm just saying just like the normal. consensus right now, how much hype is about them.

So yeah, like you said, if they just make the playoffs, I think people will be wellmed, not overwhelmed or underwhelmed. They'll just be whelmed. Who's your favorite bet? Oh, excuse me. I have to pick mine. Yeah, I was going to say. Sorry, I have to pick mine.

I'm bouncing over here. I can't believe you didn't pick this. I'm picking Arthur Smith. If we're doing this whole Falcons narrative thing that were, yeah, you couldn't do it. That's true. I couldn't do it. I couldn't have everything doing that. Yeah.

Falcons were seven and ten last year. if the Falcons are the 10-win winner of the NFC South, it is not hard to picture Arthur Smith winning coach of the year. So I enjoyed that one. There are some other ones that I think you could easily connect the dots on. Matt LeFleurre, think about the Packers' offense is better this year. You have the post-Rogers bump.

That one's easy to imagine. And then a couple others, but my best bet is another one that I think is, it's not hard to make that jump. So who is your best bet for Coach of the Year, your favorite bet? Mine's Mike Tomlin at 20 to 1. And that is, hey, this is the youth movement that it's coming to fruition. And I think the defense is going to carry them. The offense looks, you know, there are some, there are paths that this offense looks pretty

good this year. So if that happens, they make the playoffs and a loaded AFC. Yeah, I think Tomlin at least is in contention, even if he's been around for a while. Same odds. I'm going with Doug Peterson. The year after bump. If the Jags win 13 games, if they just cruise in the AFC South, if they're the number one seed in the AFC, which would be impressive, but it's not crazy to imagine them doing that with the schedule they have compared to the schedule the rest of the teams in the AFC have.

Especially if the offense goes longer. Yes. Yes. And he's the offensive caller, play caller. So, yes, that's easy to kind of just go, look what he's doing right now. I had an unfortunate conversation with the defensive coordinator this weekend. And we were talking about the Jags. And I really wanted him to throw some cold water on my excitement about the Jaguar. his offense and he said they have the best concepts in the league in terms of how many answers

that they have against anything you can do to them and I'm like damn it just that's not what I wanted to hear I wanted you to throw a little bit of cold water on this unfortunately I did not so I feel pretty good about the jaguar's excitement that we've exhibited here over the last couple months and I think that Doug Peterson is a pretty fun 20 to one coach of the year bet love that Love that, love that, love that. Speaking of assistant coaches, I wanted to do assistant coach of the year, because I think this is a fun one to kind of plan a flag on before the season. No odds on this one, so we don't have a best bet.

I googled. I was like, wait, where is this one? We're going to pick this at the end of the year, so I figured why not pick it at the beginning of the year. It's an actual award. Assistant coach of the year, who did you go with? I'm torn between two here. I, though, am going to go with Jim Schwartz. That's a good one.

It's kind of, yeah, and that's what I think this Brown's defense can be. We've talked about this, but the additions they made free agency, just this, just becoming more sound, just overall. Even if some of the, like Jim Schwartz does, isn't exactly what's in vogue right now. It's still like he has an identity. We talked about it. It's coming back. And he has an identity.

They've added through the spine of the defense. So I think the talent's there, they have the name recognition as two where they can maybe rack up some sacks. So people notice that because that's where you kind of have to. you know, put your hat on. It's like, oh, we have this many sacks. It leads the league, yada, yada, yada. So just tying into our discussion with Miles Garrett, other additions they've made it along

the front. I'm going with Jim Schwartz, just letting that defense tee off on guys. Yeah, again, this is a perception in one year versus reality in the next year. Big gaps between those two things often dictate who wins awards like this. So I think that's a really good one. I don't know if he'll win the award because I don't think that there will be as exciting of a narrative around it. But I think one of the coaches we will talk about most differently at the end of the year

than we talk about him now. And the guy I'm going for with this is Mike McDonald, the defensive coordinator for the Ravens. I think by the end of this season, he will be one of those hot shot head coaching candidates. And I think that's kind of what I'm trying to plan a flag on here. Very well respected by teams that have played against him. They had no idea what they were doing in.

the beginning of last season. They'd undergone such a dramatic shift on that side of the ball that they were just really throwing shit against the wall and seeing what stuck for the first half of the year. And that's what it seemed like. And they really clicked into place in the second half of last season. And the way that he thinks about the game and the way that he thinks about weaknesses within the defense and talking to offensive coaches about that, he just seems like the type of guy who's going to get a lot of steam over the course of this season.

And I wanted to just put a little pin in that before we got started. like it. Yeah, AFC North, two defensive coordinators and AFC North. You know how the, how the season's going there. My, the other one I was the time between is Shane Waldron, who's office coordinator. Jim Short's defense coordinator for the Browns, by the way. Yes. I'm labeling that.

But my, my like a little, like, sprinkling is Shane Waldron, offense coordinator for the Seahawks, just because I think that offense, I'm optimistic about it. Oh, we'll get to some Seahawks love here in a little bit. We'll get to some Seahawks off here in a little bit. Offensive rookie of the year is up next. who is your winner, your pick for offensive rookie of the year? I'm going chalk, Bejohn Robinson, plus 200. I couldn't even make an argument for anybody else as much as I would try to. Yeah.

Going with the Falcons running back. I just think I'm very high in this falcons offense. I think he's going to get a lot of touches. He'll have the underlying numbers, the film stuff, the box score numbers, the highlights. He's awesome, guys. I'm really excited to watch him play. I'm also going with Bejan Robinson. I can imagine a path for Jemir Gibbs if he just has a dozen, a lot of

electric plays over the course of the season. If the Lions are, not a prize playoff team, but if the Lions firmly win the NFC North, if they're one of the teams of the year, I can imagine that case being made for Jemir Gibbs. I just think that Bejohn's workload is going to be so robust. He doesn't have

a David Montgomery to contend with. Tau R Alger is a good player, but I don't think the workload will be nearly as evenly split on the ground as it will be with the Lions. So I think that the counting stats for Bejon will be such that it gives him a pretty decided edge. It's,

Algiers, the, like, opposite of a scatback, but used in the same way. Hey, third down, pass protection,

third and one, hammerhead, like, he's the reverse of that. He's like, he's the third down designated hitter. That's,

that's kind of what his usage is going to be in, in a good way. I don't mean that the bad way at all. The other thing, too, is, uh, the Falcons,

though, have no, like, national TV games. So that's, that is true. That is true. That is true.

Jimier Gibbs goes for 120 total yards and I guess the chiefs, you know, tomorrow night or tonight, I guess, when this comes out. So yeah, that's the other thing is you get, I remember the national recognition for that for those, for these type of awards. Listen, if Bejan rushes for a thousand yards and has 800 receiving yards and scores

a dozen touchdowns, it won't matter. And he's good fantasy. Like, and people are like, oh, yeah, okay, there's my guy. Yeah, exactly. It won't matter if they're buried at noon every single week on Sundays. All right. Who is your favorite bet for offensive rookie of the year? I, I have no idea here.

I kind of split it by what said, Zay Flowers, 16 to 1. That's what I said. Okay, but that's an easy one for me. Okay, I know you, yeah, but it's like, that's the only narrative I could really get behind. The other one was Zach Charbonnet at 40 to 1 if Kenneth Walker misses a lot of time and they really just pound the rock. But that, that's all I had. I really was kind of grasping out straws for this award. Yeah, go on with Zay because I know you'll, you'll stick this language.

Well, I love Zayflowers. So I think that's part of the reason. I think he's very talented. It's not hard to picture him being the number one receiver in the Ravens offense. Correct. him leading the Ravens in receiving yards, him getting a thousand receiving yards, the Ravens offense being one of the stories of the season and him being that guy. And so at 16 to 1, I think that case is not so far removed and is not,

doesn't seem remote enough for me to not like the 16 to 1, if that makes sense. The other two receivers can't stay on the field. Mark Andrews already banged up. Zayfarers is still trucking along. I know he's a rookie. He's got fresh legs, but he's still in there. So he can eat up those touches. they're going to, they're going to sling that ball around.

Yeah, that's my favorite one. And that's beyond even my liking of Zay Flowers. Yeah. Defensive rookie of the year. It was your pick for defensive rookie of the year. I was about to get cute with this and I went chalk again, Will Anderson at plus 400 with the Houston Texans. Don't think he'll have maybe crazy, crazy sack numbers.

I don't think that's his game. I think he's a good pass rusher, but I think he'll get a lot of TFLs and impact plays in that way and a lot of just maybe highlight plays where he blows something up and that gets shared on social media. Also, it's not so much a really good defense, as much an improved defense. It might be really good. But it might be really good because you had them 10th. And I at the very least think they're going to be an average to above average one.

So I think they improved defense. They're going to have a little bit more eyeballs on them as a team. People remember the name Will Anderson, especially if you're a college football fan. So that helps as well. So I just went with the high draft pedigree and Will Anderson here. It was hard for me. I also went with close to the top. and pedigree. I'm going with Jalen Carter.

Yeah. Interior defensive linemen, it tends to take a little while. Think about all those guys who were drafted a few years ago where it took him a couple seasons to really become impact players. Quinn Williams, Jeffrey Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, all those guys. So it would buck the trend a little bit for how quickly guys at this position become impactful players, but he's a special talent. He's going to be on the field a lot for that Eagles team.

And I think the Eagles are going to be one of the best teams in the league. the Eagles don't have the Falcons problem of having no nationally televised games. A lot of people are going to get a lot of exposure to J. J.1 Carter this year. Nope. Great call. That's defending NFC champions will be in a lot of people's minds. And especially they're going to remember this guy.

Oh, this guy's one of the Georgia guys. Yeah. Okay. Oh, this guy should have been the number one pick. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that sticks in people's minds. Who's your favorite bet for a defensive player of the year? Because this is not easy.

I didn't have a great one. I went with the Manuel Forbes corner for Washington. That's just because I think he'll get some interception numbers. me and Dane talked about this and he almost like got me to kind of blow like blow my take on prospects of pros and I was like wait well that's what I had Dane but manual Forbes yeah he's a ball hawk that's his game so if he just gets a few and if that Washington defense again is like in people's minds and or feel good story boom that's what I'm going with this is not easy I pick Deontay Banks the corner for the Giants is 25 to 1 starting corner for a defense that I a team I think could

be relevant and actually pretty good this year. And the fact that he's just going to be on the field. When you look at some of the other guys with odds in the 25 to 30 to one range, they're like rotational players. So he's a day one starter. They're going to play so much man coverage. Can he get a half dozen, you know, big plays, turnovers, whatever this year? So I don't love that one, but it was my favorite one on the board.

Yeah. New York media too. Yeah. There you go. There you go. Can't discount that. Okay. Let's get into some statistical winners here.

your rushing champion for the 2023 season is Eli Mitchell. No, it is my pick for this. And this one, this one actually took me a while. I actually probably spent a lot of time on this one,

which is just stupid. But I went with Sequin Barclay at plus 1100. So 11 to 1. He was fourth in rushing yards last year. I'm hoping a little bit more of a balanced passing attack will help some of those run looks and maybe even increase some of his explosive plays. Yeah,

I like that price. I actually thought he would be a little bit higher. And yeah, I have other kind of picks and thoughts on this, but that's the one I'm going to go with as my actual pick. I did him last year, too. I am a little bit worried about some of the underlying efficiency metrics of him as a

runner last year. That's true. That is absolutely true. That is absolutely true. So that concerns me a little bit. And I also just think the workload might be a little bit less this year. So that scares me. This award is so volume driven.

If you look at last year, you essentially need. 300 carries to win this award. And you often need more than that. So trying to pin down who's going to get 350 carries as part of this. Last year, Josh Jacobs was that guy. Last year, Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing. Derek Henry is always a candidate for that. I'm concerned about the health of the Titans offense in terms of systematically and his own personal health after the workload that he got last year. So there wasn't. And they have a better backup than they ever had, Tajay Spears. So does he need to get 350?

Carries. Correct. I'm going to go with the guy I go with pretty much every year with this award, just because I think he's the best running back in the league, and I'm going to say Nick Chubb. I knew you would. So that's why I stayed awful. I think he's going to get 300 carries the same way he always does.

If no one else gets 340 and everyone else settles in like the 325 range, I don't think they want to give him more of a workload than he's gotten over the last couple years, even with Kareem Hutt gone. So even with that competition theoretically removed from the backfield, I don't anticipate an uptick in touches. for him, but if he settled somewhere around 300 and the efficiency stays where it has over the last few years,

to me, he's just as good a bet as anybody. You can't argue against it. Because that's like really what I would be betting on. But it was just I had, I couldn't not go chub or I couldn't go chub as well because I assumed you would probably have to throw him in there. We had to. One of us had to because it's kind of like all these guys, especially the timeline of the Browns.

It's like, that one I could easily see him getting the touches, him getting the yards, and I've seen it before. Who is your favorite bet for Russian champion? Because there was a couple of them I actually liked. You do? I didn't. I had a bomb bomb. I said D'Andre Swift at 100 to 1.

And that's just going behind the Eagles off in the line. D'Henry Swift. I don't even like D'And but I decided whatever. Just go on, whatever. Okay. Here's why that's a terrible pick. Because we talked about volume is the number one thing here. It is getting the carries.

Have you seen the Eagles' depth chart? Yeah. The four guys are listed as the starting running back. They're all in the same line. Dude, I don't like any of these. That's why I just threw one out there. It's like I really have none. I like.

I got two. And again, this is all volume driven. Damien Pierce at 35 to 1. If they try to protect the quarterback and he just gets 325 carries in that backfield. I'll believe it when I see it if Damien Pierce can last the whole season. That's fine. That's totally understandable.

But that one. And then the other one, again, this is all volume based. Miles Sanders at 40 to 1. If they just give Miles Sanders a shitload of carries because they don't feel good about anything else in the offense. Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't feel. I looked at the reason I wouldn't, DeAndre Swift was because of Miles Sanders. And if he can get the touches with that bad vision, I thought DeAndre Swift could get all the touches in the yards with his bad vision.

But also, I would feel better about the Miles Sanders pick if the Panthers offensive line looked better this preseason. And that's literally what got me off of it. have a chance to not be very good. But if their best path is just giving that one running back an unbelievable amount of work just to protect themselves, that is the bet that I'm making. It's 35 and 40 to 1. Have you seen the Panthers? That's right. No one troll me about the DeAndre Swift thing.

Come on, guys. But did you see the Panthers kind of like receiving room right now? Yes. D. Owen is banged up. Charks out for sure. Guess what? Dilan's banged up.

You know what the answer to that is? Amir Smith. Marcette. Oh, no, I was going to say you give Miles Sanders 40 touches the game. That's what I was going to say. That's the answer. Thank you. Thank you.

Bellar, you saved me. I missed my own note. Sequin was my favorite pick and my favorite bet. You can't do that. That's why I was like, I have no notes on this. And I was like, okay, yes. That's cheating. Thank you, Belor.

Thank you for saving me. I'm not allowing that. That's double digits. 11. No, that's, I'm not allowing that. That's way too good of odds. Okay. Passing champion.

Who is your 2023 passing champion? Quote unquote passing champion. Passing yard is champion. Yes, there you go. I'm going with Justin Herbert at 4 to 1 plus 400. He's gotten up there before. It's not like they have to squint too much at this. I think they're going to be chucking it.

I don't think the defense is going to be that great. So they're going to be checking it a lot. I think Kellan Moore is totally fine with that. And I think they're going to be throwing every type of dropback game you can think of. They drafted a freaking first round receiver. the offense aligns is the hopefully healthy and the best unit he's ever had. Yeah. Austin Echoers are receiving back too if you just want to even throw that in there.

So I think he's going to be chucking it, letting it rip. I also have Justin Herbert. Yeah. Justin Herbert is going to throw the football an unconscionable amount of times this year. An unconscionable amount of times. They are also, they played, they did this last year in L.A., but the Cowboys in the way that they played under Kell & Moore,

they are going to play so fast and they are going to throw the ball so much. that even if he's not gangbusters efficiency-wise, I still think you can throw up for 500,000 yards pretty easily this year. If they throw it 750 times. And it's totally feasible. Like of all these guys, that's the one that I was like, I could picture the easiest.

It's like, yeah, I've already seen this movie before. Like, that's, I've seen this before. It's going to be great. I also had Justin Herbert. That was an easy one.

I didn't even have to think about that one. Who is your favorite bet to lead the league in passing? I had a couple here that I wanted to talk about. I actually liked this one. I had Trevor Lawrence at 14 to 1. Again, leaky defense. I think they're going to be chucking all over the yard. They use the running game to get some explosives like that as opposed to like leaning on it.

So even with the tank Bixby addition, just how they're built. It's a lot of quick game. A lot of screens. They're just a lot of volume. I think they're going to be explosive. I'm super high in the Jags offense, as are you. I think they'll be firing the ball over the yard. I'm high on Calvin Ridley.

Yeah, I could see this one. He was in nine. I think he came in ninth last year. And that's what the weapons they had. And they weren't that. heavy in the first half of the season, and they didn't play that fast in the first half of the season. So his passing volume should be considerably higher this year, and I still don't think the defense is going to be very good. Nope.

Spoiler, Trevor Lawrence was also one of mine. I thought the Trevor Lawrence is a very good bet at 14 to 1. Here's my other one, though, and this one I really do love. Gino is 35 to 1. That's pretty tasty. What did he finish last year? He was up there. He actually didn't finish that high.

And here's the reasoning. the Seahawks played at one of the fastest clips in the NFL. Kim an 8th. So he was in the top 10. Yes. And the Seahawks played at one of the fastest clips in the NFL last year. They were like fifth in pace. They were seventh in pass rush over, in passing rate over expectation.

Yep. They didn't string drives together very well. They were a below average team on third down. And they're, I think, like, plays per drive, they were like 22nd in the NFL. So if their offense can be a little bit. it more efficient. Yep. And the tempo and the passing rates hold up.

I absolutely think that there are timelines where he throws for like 4,800,000 5,000 yards. And think about the receiving. They have three receivers that they've invested in. This team is going to be playing more than 11 personnel. And having those three guys, instead of betting any of them to do anything, I'm just betting on Gino. That's why he was my favorite punt on quarterback and fantasy.

Just because of all of these things potentially lining up. and him being within spitting distance of the herberts and the burrows as those guys who are going to throw the ball a lot, but have some rushing upside to them. So I believe in Gino this year, and I think that 35 to 1 is pretty juicy for him to lead the league in passing. Oh, yeah. I totally get that one. I think there are going to be a more efficient offense overall. That's why I wanted to shout at Waldron, because just the pieces they've added, I could see them having easier third downs. It felt like it was a lot of high difficulty, and it's like great Gino can do that, but just make our lives a little bit easier.

Love that bet. I think Gino's a great pick. And I think also the Seac defense is improved, but they're not. Yes. Great. Agreed. That was also part of the thinking. Also what you have to think about too.

Receiving leader, who is your 2023 receiving leader? I went chalk. Justice Jefferson, plus 550. I can't. No way you can get me off of this. I felt the exact same way. You could probably make an argument for Jemar Chase, but I'm not going to. I don't think the Vikings defense is going to be very good, even if they're a little

bit better than they were last year. I described them as volatile. That was my, that was my nice way of saying it. Yeah, he had 184 targets last season. Yeah. I think he could get, more routes than anybody fewer, slightly fewer targets than he did last year, but I still think that he's the right pick to lead the league in receiving. It's just, and also it's like the auxiliary pieces are better and everything, but he's the, he's the show. Yeah. Like he, just because the, you know, the side acts have gotten better. It's like, no, you're Justin Jefferson's going to get fed. That is that's what makes the entire offense go. Again, like you said, the defense might be leaky or at least it could be a lot of gash scenario.

So you might get a lot of shootouts too. I, he's at plus 550. I like that price too. So yeah, I'm all about that one. I think you probably make a Tyree kill argument if you wanted to, but I still just think that Joseph Jackson's the best option. And like that always gets me off too. It's like, oh, well, waddle's going to eat into the amount of tar.

It doesn't matter when you're only throwing it those two guys. Even if you got another one there, if you're only throwing at those two and you throw the ball at the amount they did. The one argument I would say against that. is they might throw the ball less this year. I could see their running volume being a little bit higher to combat what defenses are going to do to them. So that's why Tyree Kill wasn't my favorite. Agreed. So I went with Justin Jefferson.

Who is your favorite bet to lead the league in receiving this year? I went Garrett Wilson at 15 to 1 because I just think Rogers is going to feed them. So I liked this one too. I didn't go with it though because I think the defense might be too good. Too good. That's my concern. I just also, no, totally get that and just how the game scripts are going to be. I can see a lot of like race to 20 point type games.

It's just the other thing is the run games, I don't think it's going to be overwhelming. And they live off all those little dinkin ducks, the smokes and the bubbles and all that. So I just think it's a sheer volume one. They get into two minute drills and he knows where to go every single time. We'll see if defense is adjusted up also, by the way, so you never know. And you have to have the counter to the counter. But man, I just think I think he's going to feed him. I talk myself more into Garrett Wilson of fantasy as well for throwing fantasy takes in there just because of that volume.

I think so too. And I also think he can catch a dozen touchdowns easily. In that area of the field, the connection they could potentially have, I think. Finacy-wise, a very good bet, but I just worry about the volume and how often they need to throw the ball. This is my favorite bet of any of the ones we're going to talk about. It aligns with a couple of the other ones that I've made. Calvin Ridley is 40 to 1 to lead the league in receiving.

I just said Trevor Lawrence was a great bet to lead the league in passing at 14 to 1. Why wouldn't Calvin Ridley be a great bet to lead the league in receiving at 40 to 1? In real life, I have bet this. So you're not going to really get any pushback for me over here because if you watched it in the preseason,

he was just getting peppered. Like just outrouts, outrouts, outrouts. He's going to get fed. So, yeah, not getting any pushback on this bet right here. Okay, so looking at the numbers, Christian Kirk last year got 133 targets in the Jaguars' offense. Zay Jones got 120 targets in the Jaguars offense. We just talked about how they're probably going to play faster over the course of the season. They're probably going to throw the ball more over the course of the season.

It is not difficult to imagine Calvin Ridley getting 150 targets within this offense. and if they're down the field and they're efficient targets, 40 to 1 is, that's a fun one. It's juicy. Yeah, I'm jealous that you put down some money on that because they end up. I did. A good one to root for over the course of the season. I threw a little bit on this one.

There's just that time when I just see so many shootouts with the Jacks. And I just, he's going to benefit from that. That offense could be great, but they're going to just have a lot of patting, stat padding as well on some of those shootouts. All right, here we go. The best picture of our podcast here. Your MVP for the 2020 season is.

Oh, see if I can do this back to back. So going with Josh Allen at plus 750. I don't think that's a surprise to anyone because I can't help myself but hint at what I'm going to pick for these shows for months. Man, I just, some of the just steam has come off of him. So Jeff Howe from the athletic does a poll where he talks to execs and coaches and he has them rank and bet on all the awards or makes,

their pick for the awards. So he did MVP. Josh Allen didn't get a single vote for MVP among the... That's crazy. 17 voters, I believe it was. Not a single one. Last year, he got 10 of the 16 votes for MVP. He finished second in every underlying stat that matters. QBR, success rate. A torn elbow ligament for a third of the season.

With a torn elbow on a relevant team. What happened? What did I miss? Who did he insult? I am just trying to figure this out. I feel like I'm going crazy a little bit. You know, plus 750. It's not like he's, you know, plus 75 to 1.

But still, I just think there should be more momentum. I think he's motivated. I think just also he's a devastating runner, like the on the podium for best scramblers in the league easily. He had a long stretch his last season. He's going ballistic, like absolutely ballistic as a quarterback. And then he hurts his UCL and he was still fine. And I think just the additions the bills have made, I'll talk more. about this, obviously, and I'm terrible hiding my picks. But I think just that what they've added,

it will keep him from the Gallum version of Josh Allen that kind of just like goes nuts and goes askew and just like, you know, my precious with the ball and all that. But it's like, honestly, like just keeping him steady and keeping all the good Josh Allen with just a sprinkling of Professor chaos. I mean, yeah, I'm just all in on Allen this year. I think he's going to be fantastic like he was last year. And I think that momentum should keep up. we've been on this together, I think, for most of the summer. This, the year after thing with the bills where not that much has changed and everyone is forgetting the way that they felt about the bills heading into last year and you

could make an argument that they have a better roster right now. So I don't blame you at all. I think part of the reason I shied away from the bills in some of these decisions is because I knew you were going to pick all the bills with a lot of these categories. I, if it's going one way or the other, if the coin kind of landed on its side and you You could tip it either way. To me, it was between Josh Allen and the guy that I'm going to go with. It's Joe Burrow.

Yeah, I said this earlier in the week. I think the Bengals have a chance to be the team of the regular season. I wouldn't be surprised they had the best record in the league. I think they could be the team that just has the most juice over the course of the regular season. Looking at Joe Burroughs stats from week five through week 18 last year. So after they made their little tweak, his 17 game pace would have been 4,800 yards, a league leading 69 to 70% completion rate and 38 passing touchdowns. For the best team in the league, that's pretty easy to win MVP with those sorts of numbers.

Yeah. It's like even if Mahomes has better numbers, it's like, no, the war's going there. And this is a Mahomes fatigue thing. That's very difficult to win the MVP two years in a row. Very difficult. Deep down, it's the easiest bet you can make is Mahomes and you can feel good about it. It's like fantasy, gambling, everything, real life. But yeah, it's a real, very.

very real thing. Michael Jordan didn't win it every year. Like it's just like it happens. It happens. This is the Carl Malone year. Like that's kind of how this feels. Yeah. And it has happened in the last few years and Rogers won two in a row. But I think there are just so many quarterbacks who have potentially monstrous seasons in them. And, you know, just think about the narrative around the young quarterbacks and this is the Bengals year, all that. It's really not difficult to believe or imagine. So I'm going with Joe Burrow, but I also like Josh Allen as a pick here. These are kind of the two I would look at. the one I'll have for my best bet. But if anyone wants to know, like, I'm a terrible, like, I'm good with gifts, but I'm terrible like hiding it, like for my wife. Like, so say for, actually, your birthday's at the end of the month. But it's like, it's her birthday and I get the gift a week early. There's no way I can hold on to it a week. It's like, hey, I have your gift already.

I'm not like, you want to know what it is? And my wife's like, no, I didn't even ask. I'm like, yeah, well, here it is. Sorry. Like, it's like, just wait a week. I can't help it. I just, I just tip my hand no matter what. Okay.

Who was your favorite bet for MVP? Lamar Jackson. I am throwing it in there just to say this is hey he's 14 to 1 it's not anything crazy but it's the same thing as this the Ravens he has a healthy season he comes back big contract Ravens kind of just get back to the level that they were at a few years ago win a really talented and tough division maybe make some noise in the playoffs he's at 14 to 1 I like that and then little taste on Trevor in case he does go like 2016 Matt Ryan spoilers I have Trevor Lawrence is minus 16 to 1 we've already talked about it leave league in passing if

Calvin Ridley, Lizely, rushing, Doug Peterson. You can see it. I can see it. How clear the path is, 16 to 1 feels like very good odds. And they may not hit it. Their defense may not be good enough. They may not be the best team in the AFC or one of the best teams in the AFC, but there's a very clear path to them winning the AFC South.

And I think that they can have a huge win number by the end of the season, even if they're not the best team in the conference just because of the schedule that they're playing. Right. They could have the 29th ranked defense, but they also have a top. top three offense, you know, and it doesn't matter because people are going to look at the offensive stats. They're going to look at the young quarterback.

He's the next name. Okay, cool. Yeah, that's an easy one that people, like voters can get behind. And it's the Jaguars. How cool is that? Like, we're giving it to them. Like, you can easily see the argument for that. All right, let's get into it.

Yeah. Division winners. I did division winners in my Super Bowl pick is what I, is what I did because I didn't want to figure out who in the divisional round because I'm lazy. I did a mock playoffs. Yeah, this is after you couldn't figure it out last year. So you had to play it all out in. real time. That's exactly what happened. Let's start with where we typically start. Let's start

with the NFC North, who is your NFC North winner this season. I went, I went for it here. I went with the Packers at plus 350. You're a braver man than I am. I know. And I just, there's, I am very optimistic about Jordan Love. I think the offensive line is a true, true top five unit with depth, which also helps, as we've seen, a lot of team success comes from offensive line health. But if you have depth as well, that's nice. I think defense will improve. There's some cool quotes. I think you've hinted at these quotes as well about how they're going to maybe have some identity shift of what they're doing, especially up front like Kenny Clark said some of the defensive change and what they're doing. I was like, okay, that's okay, good, good, good, good.

So wide open division, honestly, I feel like it's a pickam amongst the lines, Vikings and Packers. I'm going to Packers, Longassahs, and I could see the argument for it. I feel similarly about the pickum between all three teams. I have the Packers as one of my wildcard teams. So I do have them making the playoffs for reasons that you just said. I think this is a bet on Matt LaFleur and that offense still being very good, even which you're in love, the offensive line, the skill position players being explosive enough, even if they're not super consistent early in their careers, plus unimproved defense. Them winning 10 games, not hard to picture. So I, but I have them as a wild card team. It's a race to 10 for all these teams.

That's what it feels like. And I think the Lions could also be in that conversation. And to me, it's just safer to pick the Lions to win the division to avoid the ire of Lions fans, if I'm wrong about it. And I have Lions as one of my wild cartoons. There you go. So we just flopped. We just flopped them. All right.

So I still have been in there. I think the lion, talk about this. It's funny because a lot of the people that were responding to our Lions preview in the NFC North preview, like you talked about all the reasons they can go wrong, not any of the reasons it can go right. It's like, go listen to the top ten offensive show. I had them as the fifth best offense in the league. I'm a huge Ben Johnson fan. I love all the things they did on offense last year. I still think they'll be very good on that side of the ball.

The defense will be improved. I am bullish on the Lions. as a playoff team in the NFC, I just have concerns about whether they can go toe to toe with the best teams in the NFC. And even if they can't, that's okay. They don't need to be on that timeline. That could be what they're trying to do next year.

But I still think that they have the firepower and the capability of winning the NFC North and I'm going to pick them to do so. They have a potential elite side on one ball and improved on the other side. They're going to be around. They're going to be a feisty team no matter what. So it's like, that's the thing for me,

it was that they might have the same exact win-win loss record. until last year, but that makes the playoffs this year. And that's kind of how I look at the lines. I think they are improved, but it's just how much is the answer. NFC South. Who are you picking to win the NFC South? Surprise, no one's the dirty birds. It's the Atlanta Falcons.

They're at plus 200 right now. I got them and I checked yesterday. Got them at plus 320 a few months ago. So that line has been bet down. But yeah, just as a bet on the offense, I think Ritter would be functional enough, but I love their line. I think it's a top 10 unit. I wouldn't say top 5,

but top 10ish unit. It's so good for who they want to be. That's what I like about it, is that it is so well constructed for the type of team they want to build. Yes, they have a nice mix of talent too. It's a cool line. But also just the tight ends,

the receivers, it's an interesting group. It's an identity. Everybody that they have makes so much sense for what they want to do. So that's why it might not work for other people, but it works for them. But I mean that in a good way,

not the rest of development way. But also, I think the defense will be improved. And I think the line that I really like about this team is that they're going to beat up bad teams. And they face one of, they have one of the easiest schedules in the league this year. So I think they're going to just beat up bad teams, hang with the good teams. And that can get them to 10 wins. And I think they, that can take the division, which I think is wide open. I also have the Falcons.

We've talked about this a million times and a million places and a million ways. I am bullish on the Falcons this year for all the reasons that you said. I think the defense has a chance to be. be frisky and interesting, and I cannot wait to watch what the offense puts together. I think Desmond Ritter can keep the train on the tracks. My follow-up question to this, do you have the Saints making the playoffs at all? I do not. Me neither.

Okay. It was between them and the Lions. What keeps the Saints out for you? You know, Derek Carr doesn't overwhelm me. And I don't know how much, like, just figuring out that improvement, the health. I even just watching their line this preseason. I watched Andres Pete and he looked toward. I don't really trust Trevor Penning on the left side.

So that's the whole left side of the offensive line. McCoy hasn't finished the season. That's just the offensive line. Michael Thomas will see. I love Chris Olavet. I love the tight ends. And then the defense, I do like a lot of pieces on the defense, but then they lost a lot of talent up front.

And yes, they, like, invested in it, draft picks, signing some guys. But I don't know. It just always feels incomplete with this team. And that's how I feel. There's nothing where I'm just like, yeah, that's what I like about them. They're facing an easy schedule. I think they're going to be frisky. Don't get me wrong, but just nothing pushed me over the top of them.

I think their ceiling is very capped with the players that they have. And when your ceiling is capped and the argument is for the floor, that concerns me. And I think that's where we are with the Saints. It's like, well, look at the division and look at how good they've been on defense over the last five years. They're at least a nine-win team. That type of thinking is concerning. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year, I think, by a snap way to age. Their defense is extremely old compared to some other elite defenses in the league. Their

pressure rate last year was very low for a very good defense. I think even if the defense takes a moderate step back from a top five unit by way to DVO and a lot of other metrics last year to a top half of the league unit, I don't think the offense has enough juice to make up for it to really make them one of the better teams in the NFC. I think they could. They absolutely could, but I just don't feel great about picking them to make it compared to some of these other teams. Right. And it's not a fun bet to make either. But it also wasn't like Andy Dalton was horrid last year. You know, and that's the thing. He was fine as a starter.

So it's like, how much improvement are you getting at that position? I think they could be more explosive and Cars will push the ball down field, all that stuff. But I think that your ceiling is capped with Derrickar. If the argument is, well, if we get moderately good quarterback play all season and our defense is still great, then maybe we could be the best team in the NFC. South. The pillars of that argument just aren't exciting to me. And I think that when you start to chip away at them, that can fall apart pretty quickly. I'm with you. That's why I kept them off. All right. NFC. East. Who was winning the NFC East for you? This is so hard. I end up going with the Cowboys. But it's not like Cowboys and Eagles. I have the Eagles as the five seed. Yeah. It's a

coin flip for me. It's a pickum. Yeah. It's a pickum. And it's just that I am optimistically about the Cowboys and obviously with their defense and I think the offense has some more answers, even the play caller is a big question mark. But I don't know. I've come around at the Mike McCarthy kind of hate. I'm waiting to see it. Like I said, I'm waiting through the first month before I started jumping on that bandwagon, good or bad.

But I just like how the Cowboys are. We also just got to remember, like, how freaking good when Dak has had three receivers like this, that sounds obvious. But like when he had a Mori Cooper there and Cid Lam and Gallup, Brandon Cook's kind of getting in that role. but how good DAC was and how explosive these offenses were when he had that extra dude as a pass catcher. We'll see. I'm betting.

I'm optimistic on the Cowboys. I think they put it together and they keep winning games. I think they'll do it again. I'm going with the Eagles just because I think the continuity, even changing out the coordinators, Nick Siriani being there to kind of be a stabilizing force for them on offense, combined with the talent that they have on both sides of the ball and being bullish on Sean Desai. So I'm giving them the slight edge. So I'm picking the Eagles, but the Cowboys are also.

my first team as an NFC wild card. I think that's the thing. This is nothing against the Eagles. I think them and the Cowboys, they're going to be neck and neck for the best record. It's just who loses. Yeah, who loses out ends up being the five seat. Like that's just going to,

how I think it's going to break down. All right. NFC West. Who's winning the NFC West for you? I played footsie with the sea chickens for a few months, and I end up just going back to the 49ers. I'm going to pick the 49ers to win the NFC West and be the one seed in this division.

or in this conference, I'm sorry. Interesting. Yeah, I came all the way around on this. It's a bet on the defense, Calh-Shanehan, the pieces. I've, pretty's fine. I'm not high on them, but whatever. It's like, you know, whatever. I just, it's no arguing against this.

I just think this offense can be very good. They're going to have moments, I think, especially early season, like they always do. But this is just a bet on what I've seen. They've made the conference championship three of the last four years. Yeah. It's like, and they added Giovanna Hargrave? Like, I don't know. Now they just got Bosa back.

We're good. Their offense was ridiculous over the second half last year. It was absolutely ridiculous. It was up there with the Chiefs, which is like ridiculous. Yeah, like you're saying. So I don't know. I'm bound to 49ers. I think they're going to be to one seed.

I came around on this fully. I also have the 49ers win in the NFC West. And I have the Seahawks as my third NFC wild card. I have them as my wild card. I have them as the six seed. I did not cede the teams. I know. I know. I'm a coward.

But I had the. I had that Seahawks is my third wildcard team. So my division winners, lions in the NFC North, Falcons in the NFC South, Eagles in the NFC East, Niners in the NFC West, and my three wildcard teams in the NFC are the Seahawks, the Cowboys, and the Packers. Okay. And then I went, NFC East, Cowboys, NFC North, Packers, NFC South, Falcons, NFC, West, 49ers, and my wildcard teams, in order, 567 are Eagles, Seahawks and Lions. like that. So we have the same seven teams in the playoffs? To me, actually.

Yeah. God dang. Wide open NFC. And we have the same seven teams. I, so a couple teams. So I was going to say, who else could we actually throw in there?

Okay. So I think the Giants absolutely. Giants. I really do think that their schedule is brutal, but I absolutely think that they could make the playoffs. We talked about this in our NFC East preview. All that excitement and optimism and confidence we had in their coaching staff last year, that suddenly doesn't do.

disappear. So if the giant snuck into that Packer's spot, I think that easily could happen. They just have to play against the Cowboys and the Eagles four times. So it's just a little bit of a harder road. So if the Giants snuck in there would not be surprised at all. If the Vikings were a wildcard team this year would not surprise me at all. I think their offense has a chance to be really good this season. And if they can be volatile and annoying on defense, they could be a 10-win team.

Those are the first two that would come to mind that we already talked about the Saints. That's all I got. That really I tried to make arguments for others, but I really couldn't get round on it. So, so yeah, it seems like a 10 teams that we're kind of mentioning there. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

This is going to be awful. AFC playoff teams. This is, I can't remember, I can't remember being in this hard. I can never remember a year, a time when it was this hard to land on seven teams. This is going to be brutal. Okay. It is. Let's start with the AFC North.

Who is your AFC North winner? I was undecided until like literally as we started this podcast. I end up going with the Ravens of 12. Wow, that's a boy. I like it. Yeah. I like it. I had to go.

I picked them in our wind total pool or draft as well. But just think the offense with Todd Monkin is going to be approved. Hopefully some health luck. Even though it's just like, oh my God, the receivers can't get healthy. But yeah, just hopefully some health luck on this team. I think the defense, you, I mean, you gave the shout out. to the defense earlier. Interesting.

We'll see how that DB room shakes out, but I'm betting on this team. I mean, they made the playoffs last year with Lamar out for a month and a half. They upgraded offense coordinator, even if Munkin hasn't been the play car in a few years in the NFL, I should say.

So betting on Lamar, betting on the improvement on offense and health luck. I'm very excited about the Ravens. They are one of my wildcard teams. I cannot wait to watch them this year, but I've already made all of my feelings about the Bengals known. Joe Burrow can't be my MVP, and I can't have me pick the Ravens to win the AFC North.

Those two things don't compete. compute. So I am picking the Bengals as a long car team, yes, as my five seed, yes. I am picking the Bengals to win the AFC North. So we both have the Ravens and the Bengals and the playoffs. This is so splitting hairs these days. The AFCs, it's just make the dance. Some of the teams I'm leaving off here. I don't feel good about it. Me either, me either. This is this is going to be chaos this year. It's going to be amazing. AFC South. Who is your AFC South winner this year? Again, played foot to you is maybe like, oh, I'm going to be against this. I end up going with the Jags.

Same. Chalk, yeah, this offense is going to be awesome. Defense is going to be a huge question mark the entire season, but this offense at least is going be really, really fun. Would not be the least bit surprised if the Titans were more competitive and just more annoying in that division than anyone anticipates because of Mike Vrable and just the way that they consistently play. I think the defense has a chance to be pretty good this year.

We both had them as one of our top 10 defenses heading into the year. But that Jags offense, I'm not betting against it. Even with some of the question marks along the offensive line, whatever. I just feel like that is the best unit in this division and I'm betting on the best offense to win the division and the best quarterback at this point. You told me before the season that we get to play four games against rookie quarterbacks guaranteed. Like yeah, sign me up. I don't care of, yes, I'm high on Stroud, high in Richardson. They are still rookie quarterbacks. Like that that's some way to soften the landing a little bit for your defense.

AFC East. Who are you picking? Oh, I know who you're picking them with the AFC East. Josh out, it's your MVP. Yeah. Go with the bills. Plus one. money plus money on the bills they uh adjusted dv oa on the new site and they're always adjusting and having new versions of it the 22 bills were the number one team and overall dv oa since like 2018 i think it was it's like last year's team was really freaking good guys and they got some bad injury luck so yeah they were 31st and adjusted games lost on defense last year they were second to last in the league and they were still like even when like the drop off the town tell in the year they So, like, eighth.

And so, and they have awesome special teams as well. Yeah, I'm going with the bills. I, listen, you can make an argument that the help, the age on defense will become a concern. Okay. That is, if I'm poking a hole in this, that's where I would start. Oh, yeah. Mike Hyde already missing practice with the back or already banged up with the back.

Von Miller is on the pop list to start the season. Correct. Jordan Poir is getting up there. So there is a chance that defense looks old quickly, but that is the only real. concern I have with the bills as a fully formed like Super Bowl contender one of the best teams in the lake. Yeah. I think I think just because of the tough losses, it's like, man, this is still a good team. But that's absolutely true. And they reared its ugly head last year. I suppose the safety's bomb over, all the guys that you brought up. Yeah, they're all 32 and above, 33 and above.

So it's, yeah, that's a very real thing. I just, those small additions I've harped on a million times, It's just why I have me optimistic about the team. I think they just shored up and lifted that floor that I already think was very high. And they have what I think is the second best quarterback of the league. So I, yeah, I'm betting on that. Michael Hyde will turn 33 on New Year's Eve. Jordan Poirer is 32 and Von Miller, I believe, is also 33. So at least 32 years old for three very important pieces on that team.

So that's, I'm 30. And I am 34. Oh, God. I'm 36 now, man. I turned 36 a couple weeks ago. 36 is not great. All right. AFC West champion.

Who do you got? Chiefs. My is 200. Chalk. Go. I also am picking the Chiefs. I will pick the Chiefs as long as that guy is their quarterback for the rest of time. I'm done.

I made my mistakes. I will no longer make those. I know. That's why this exercise was so much easier last year. I was like, I'm just going to bet on the Chiefs. This is great. I get to bet on the House and Chiefs when they're at their Nader. This is great.

AFC wildcard teams. You already mentioned the Bengals is one of yours. The Ravens were one of mine. Yeah. Who are your two remaining AFC wildcard teams? I got frisky here. I have the Steelers and the Broncos. Broncos is a good one.

Okay. Yes. Okay. We'll talk about the Steelers in a second. Make your Broncos as a wild card team argument here. Believing in the defense, which I think is huge in this AFC, obviously. a strong run game, even if it's P. Rine or Javante Williams, I think it's a bet on the run game. We need to all pump the brakes on Samajie Piron.

Everyone needs to take it easy. He's fine. A strong, a strong? Who's making a huge argument about him? This idea that Somagia P. Ryan is like an appealing NFL player at this point. He's like above average. I think above average is even strong. Above average, he is a good pass protector and plays like a decent player.

role. If Javante Williams comes along slowly, coming back from a multi-ligament knee injury, I think a very strong running game is a little much for the Broncos. It's all the same. No, I think, I mean, they made the corpse of Mark Ingram look okay. So I don't know. I, that's what, I think it's just going to be a sound run game. And I think they're going against some teams that aren't going to be able to stop the run. They do have a more difficult schedule that I was anticipating, but I kind of was going through their schedule, like going game by game. But betting on Sean Payton, as a play caller, even with injuries of Judy and everything like that, and Tim Patrick being out, I think Sutton's going to be eaten this role. I think he's going to get Russell Wilson to be

at least competent. And I don't think that's the craziest bet to make. I don't think it is either. And I think people are making it like, I don't know. I just like, it doesn't go away at all. I think I've said this before, but I watched that Beegee's documentary. And they were talking about once they left, what's their first kind of segment of their careers, they might break up. And then like a new producer came along and he goes, the talent doesn't just go away. Like, you know, like where the talent's still there i know he gets older but i think in i think as in football talent does go away i don't think it's singing you mean worse than zach wilson talent like do you think it dropped off that much i think like yeah it dropped off but not to like the 34th no no no no i think he could be

the 14th best quarterback in the league this year i think that's very possible it's his disco era that's that's that's all i'm saying this is russell's disco era with with that's always but i really that's the bet i think defense is strong and people are forgetting how strong it is. There's a lot of of good players on that side of the ball. And yeah, my identity

thing is that it's, I think you need to squint a little bit more to get there with the Broncos than some of these other teams. That's my only concern. Yeah. That's my only concern is that I can see that unfolding. I can see that version of it. But I just think it's a little bit more far fetch than it is for some of these

other teams. And that's, that's why they were not on my short list. No. And that I, the argument for me is that, I think they're going to win ugly. And I think in this kind of conference, at least having that ability to win that way.

Like, I think a lot of teams are going to have high highs and maybe some low lows. Like, I don't know who else you're going to bring up. But that's why I'm betting on this. It's like, I just, I don't know. I think they have an identity even if we haven't seen it yet. And I think that's going to work and make sense in a strong AFC. It wouldn't floor me if the Broncos made the playoffs. But they are not one of the teams I would put on a short list to do so just because I think a lot of these other teams are more fully formed.

And we already know what they are compared to the Broncos. So along with the Ravens. My other two wildcard teams in the AFC are, not surprisingly, the Chargers. And I went with the Jets as my last one. That's not crazy. I went with the Jets as my last one. In that jet spot, I could have spun a wheel and easily put the Browns, the Steelers, or the Dolphins. Yep, easily.

I just would not have been hard to throw any of them in there. That's how hard this was, is that I feel like it's even between the last four. four teams that could have gotten it. How many, again, how many teams do we say there are you trying to win a Super Bowl exercise? It wasn't like 13 or 12 of the AFC teams? Yeah. Yeah. It was, it was most of them.

Most of them. And then when we did our top two, top 10 offenses and top 10 defenses, it was just littered with AFC North, AFC East, like, and then, you know, the chiefs, of course. Like, it's all these teams have just an elite unit that you can like easily bet on. Like the Chargers argument, their offense might be. ridiculous this year. And then, you know, the defense is a question mark, but at least they have the offense and Justin Herbert.

The bet is on Justin Herbert. That is why the charges are in there for me. It's I think a healthy Justin Herbert is. And elite quarterback is a nice bet to make. I'm betting on the guy that was ranked 34th in like every metric that I look at. So that to me is the tiebreaker of all of this is that I bet on Justin Herbert is the one that puts that the charges a little bit above all the rest of these teams. John Watson, Kenny Pickett, to his health, all of that stuff.

So that's why the chargers get the bump. I think the Jets just have a chance to be so good on defense. The defense. And Rogers is a stabilizing force, you know, them winning 10 games and getting in there, I think is a bet I'd be willing to make. A easily a top three unit that might be number one unit when it's all said and done with a Hall of Fame quarterback. It's not, yeah, I'm okay with that. That's not like the worst formula to have in like today's age. Like, yeah, the offensive line is a huge question mark, but it's like it's still have Aaron Rogers.

Like it's not still like you're just having some, you know, Matt Shaw back there. I really wanted to pick the Browns. I just, I think the Browns roster is so good. So it's hard for me to leave them off of there. But again, you could just flip a coin with any of those 14s. Yeah. And it's just the last month of that, Sean Watson's just still burning in my brain. I need to see it.

But in a month from now and I also were like, wow, they look good. It's like, I'm going to be surprised. No, this was surprised me. This is, this was, that's actually makes it fun. There's so many teams that it could be in the mix in the AFC. So many. All right. Who's your Super Bowl pick?

it's it's it's it's it's it's I'm going all the way with this bills team I think just the alternate paths they've created on offense the shoring up what I thought were the glaring weaknesses to at least be competent and have answers other answers outside step on digs or Josh Allen going nuts I think it's going to make it more sustainable that's that's what it is this is continuing with my discussion Josh Allen's the MVP but yeah I think this is their year they get over the hump and I know that's a crazy bet to bake and I mean it's not a crazy bet to happen. after what happened the last year. So I'm going with it. I think this team's going to be really, really good. I think, yes,

people have cooled on them, but they shouldn't have. I think this team's could be awesome. Easily could have gone that way. Aye, but it's been the theme of both of these shows. I think we've each built a narrative

over the course of the show with who's going to win awards, etc. I'm going with the Bengals. Love it. I'm going with the Bengals. It was hard to pick an NFC team. I don't feel great about the Eagles.

I had a harder job with that. The Eagles got all the way there last year. It's very taxis. to be a team that goes all the way to the Super Bowl. You have attrition, the Eagles have had a ton of that. But I don't feel great about any of the other teams in the NFC. We got half a season from Brock Purdy. It was really difficult to figure out the other side of this across from the Bengals,

but I feel decent about the Bengals. I think that this just could be their year. I came down to the Cowboys and Fournierers in my FC Championship game. I won't tell anyone who I picked because we don't have to. But that's how I came down to in my exercise that I did, my fantasy playoffs, that I did basically. I don't know, man. It's just this team, this year's going to be freaking awesome.

I just, I get ready. Every week in the AFC, every single week in the AFC. And week one, which we're going to preview on tomorrow's show, we get Chargers, dolphins and Bill's Jets. Yeah. In week one. It's awesome.

It's the first week of the season. It's going to be amazing. Oh, all right. Love it. That is all we got. Like I just mentioned, we will be previewing week one on tomorrow's show. So come back. check that out. Diana will be joining us

for a quick newsy segment, breaking down some of the biggest stories of the week. We will have something very cool coming with Diana starting next week, but for now she's going to be on the next iteration of the Athletic Football Show. So please be on look out for that tomorrow. Really appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.

This was the Athletic Football Show.