The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2024 QB tiers revisited: Who has the most at stake the rest of the season?

Episode Date: October 22, 2024

Back in August, 50 NFL coaches and executives told The Athletic's Mike Sando that Lamar Jackson is not a tier-one quarterback. Welp, so much for that. Lamar isn't the only QB playing outside his assigned tier this season. On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Sando sits in for Robert Mays and discusses with Derrik Klassen four other quarterbacks who aren't lining up with where those coaches and execs placed them in Sando's 2024 QB tiers column. Then, the guys break down four more quarterbacks who have a ton at stake the rest of the season.RundownRavens-Buccaneers recapBaker MayfieldJared GoffGeno SmithAaron RodgersBrock PurdySam DarnoldKirk CousinsJalen HurtsHost: Mike SandoCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Sando on X: @SandoNFLFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hello everybody. Welcome into the athletic football show. This very clearly is not. Robert Mays. This is Michael Bellar, executive producer of the athletic football show. I was going to do Robert's whole welcome bit, but then Mike Sandoz stole that for me. You'll see what I mean just about one minute from now. Robert out for this episode. Mike Sando and Derek Klesson will be coming your way. The guys are going to revisit Sando's 2024 quarterback tiers column. What they're going to do with that is take a look at four guys who are playing outside their tier three above. one below. And then from there, they're going to move on and discuss four more quarterbacks. Those who we have decided have the most at stake for the rest of the 2024 season. Let's get to it. Music up. Welcome. I'm not Robert Mays. Even though I just stole his little delivery coming in. This is Mike Sando. Roberts esteemed, well, somewhat esteemed colleague at the Athletic here with Derek Classen for the athletic football show. Derek, you're going to be able to do this? You're going to be able to carry me through without our fearless leader?

I think so. You know what? I'm excited. We got to work together a little bit in the season opener, but I mean, that was, what, a 15-minute wrap-up pod? So it's kind of nice now to be able to jump into a full episode. I think it'll be a fun one. Well, and we are going to hit.

Today we're going to revisit some of the quarterback tier stuff from before the season, and we're going to look at some quarterbacks that are maybe above, playing above where the league saw them, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Gino Smith, maybe below and Aaron Rogers. And then get into some guys with a lot at stake. Brock Purdy is one of them. We'll hit on some of the editors. But let's acknowledge the games on Monday night

because you referenced Derek. Remember that first night of the season? I wanted to hit on this because we came away from opening night, Baltimore against Kansas City, thinking that game showed us the possibilities for the Chiefs offense and the limitations for Baltimore's. And I'm not seeing any limitations. What do you think there with Baltimore 41 to 31?

Rashad Bateman over 100 yards, Lamar doing Lamar things? I mean, all's pretty good, huh? It looks incredible. And this was an offense that I was so excited to watch coming into the season. I mean, Lamar Jackson has been one of my favorite quarterbacks since the moment he put on the purple and black. And then Derek Henry has been one of my favorite running backs in the league. And it took, like you said, the opener was not great in terms of them. I mean, Lamar ended up by the end playing a pretty good game.

But then week two was also kind of weird. They leased to the Raiders. But then after that, we've really seen what this offense is supposed to look like, where Lamar Jackson is just the most dynamic runner in space. Derek Henry is just incredible, especially at closing out games. And he's just a guy you don't want to tackle 20 times a game. It's obviously not very fun. It's why he always has that fourth quarter, oh my God, the game is over type of runs.

Because you just don't want to tackle him. He had two of them in that game, by the way, on Monday night, which I thought was pretty funny. There's no more inevitable player in the league than Derek Henry. It's just inevitable. Exactly. It's when his team is up in the fourth quarter or in the second half, he's going to break a 30-yard run. It's going to happen. In this game, it was an 81-yard run. So I just love like that factor about him. He's the only back in the league where you really feel like he has that. And then the other thing I want to add it quickly about Lamar too, they've given him so much more control over this offense pre-snap, like letting him get into different plays. And I think that's why it looks and feels a little bit. different this year than even last year, but certainly compared to some of the Greg Roman offenses. So it just really feels like everything's coming together for them, and they are just an unbelievably

fun unit to watch. Absolutely. And before we get to Baker Mayfield here, on the other side of that coin, we were saying before we started recording, if you just woke up and looked at the box score, you'd think, man, shoot out, these two teams going at it. I mean, Baker Mayfield's got some Bruce Ariens-era stat lines lately. And this game, 370 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, but they lose Mike Evans to hamstring injury. Chris Godwin, too, an injury that looked a lot worse than that, a season

ending just looks like an ankle dislocation for him. Implications for Tampa Bay? I mean, have we seen the best of this team now? Unfortunately, it feels like that's the case. And it really sucks because this was one of the kind of surprise, cool offenses to watch in the league. Obviously, we kind of saw Baker come alive last year under Dave Canales, but the run game was still kind of bad. and I think they needed one more weapon, one more past catching weapon. They went out and added that this year in Jalen McMillan in the draft. And then they kind of short up the offensive line with Graham Barton. They bring in Liam Cohn to be the offensive coordinator.

And they actually end up taking another step. And Baker was playing the best ball that he'd ever played. Chris Godwin, before this game, was leading the league in yards after the catch, which, like, he's a great player, but I would not have expected that coming into the season. And so to lose him after the year that he's been having, Mike Evans is the most automatic 1,100 yards I've probably ever seen in my life. And so for those guys, obviously Evans will probably come back at some point. But for those guys to be out, it's going to be hard for them to find the explosive plays I think they've been living on.

I know this could be the year that Mike Evans finally doesn't have a thousand-yard season. I mean, he's inevitable as a receiver. We talked about Derek Henry. The one last note in that game before we get into Baker and some of the other quarterbacks, that idea of having your players in the game late. There was a lot of kind of pushback on Todd Bulls. What are you doing there? And I struggle with this one because I think I'm generally okay with it.

I don't like if you're down by 20 and you're just chasing stats and you're getting your quarterback hit, to me that's like a reflection of arrogance of a play caller who's trying to get stats. I don't put this in that category. I put this more of like you're probably not going to win the game. but fight to the finish, where were you on having Godwin in the game? No, I'm with you on fight to the finish. This was, again, they were down by, I think, 10 points. Like, to get two scores in the spot that they were in was pretty close to impossible,

like less than a 1% chance. But it's still at the point in the game where the players can look at the scoreboard and feel like if a couple of things goes right, if we get another onside kick, like we can make it happen. And so I understand why they still kept Godwin in the game. And this is a team that, like, the Bucks really, need every single win they can get. I mean, obviously it's the NFL. You obviously always need every single win you can get. But them and the Falcons are going to be neck and neck. And so they really

needed a game like this, especially against a really good Baltimore team. So I totally understand why Bowles left him in the game and did what he did. Yeah, me too. Didn't have a problem with it. It's just super unfortunate. I mean, those are two really good players on a team that probably overachieves almost every year when you think about it. I mean, they've been a win in divisions and nine and eights when people thought they weren't going to be able to do it. So we'll see. what they can do. Let's get to the task at hand today, Derek, and talk some quarterbacks, huh? Let's do it.

Okay, so in August this year, sometimes it's in July. It was in August this year, my annual quarterback tiers survey published with a ranking into tiers of the veteran starting quarterbacks based on the evaluations of 50 coaches and executives throughout the league. And so, you know, Patrick Mahomes, who we're not going to discuss. So how bad would Patrick Mahomes have to be producing for us to bring up whether he's a tier one quarterback? What would have to happen? Would it have to be like zero touchdowns on 14 interceptions right now? What would have to happen? Well, that's the funny thing is I think if you asked me that before this season, I would have said, oh, well, you know, he'd probably have to have more interceptions than touchdowns.

But that's where we're at with him, and the Chiefs are still six and O, and they're one of the best offenses in the league. And so he's just so good that he figures stuff out. So, yeah, it would have to be zero touchdowns, two picks a game. But we're not there. So basically tier one this year was only Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson was right on the edge. And I think now, you know, we probably will see how it ends this season. But he was number four, Justin Herbert, Matt Stafford, Aaron Rogers, C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jalen Hertz, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins.

And Jordan Love formed the second tier after those top three. And so we want to talk today about some guys that are. playing above and playing below, we might as well start off with Baker Mayfield as someone who's been playing probably a little bit above. Baker was this year right solidly in tier three. He had 10 votes in Tier 2, 39 in Tier 3. What's been your sort of impression so far of Baker?

And do we think it's going to keep up in trend or is he in trouble? Baker Mayfield, it feels like the issue with him, especially by the end of Cleveland. Like if we remember, the back half of his rookie season was awesome. And he was playing with a lot of confidence. He played with a lot of confidence in college. He was just ripping a lot of these throws over the middle of the field. And then it just kind of felt like a lot of things deteriorated for him around him, where he just kind of stopped playing with a lot of that confidence.

He was really shaky about what he wanted to throw over the middle of the field. And then we finally saw some glimpses when he got on with the Rams. a little bit two years ago. And it was like Sean Miffay kind of got him to get some confidence back and throw over the middle of the field. And I think since then, we've only seen him kind of grow and grow that confidence again. And I think there are still some limitations to Baker's game, right? Like, he's a decent athlete and he can scramble sometimes, but he's not like one of these Josh Allen's or Lamar Jackson's or anything like that. And then I do think that there are times where Baker gets probably a little bit too over his skis and is willing to have these games where

he might blow up and throw three interceptions because he's very willing to give his guys chances, but I just think the confidence that he's playing with, when you pair that with a guy that we have to remember, we can say whatever we want about, like, should he have gone first overall, whatever, when you're only a six-foot quarterback. But he very obviously had the arm talent to be a guy who was a first overall pick. And I think now that we're seeing him play with more confidence and really just more maturity. I mean, this is a guy who's been around for, I mean, what, six, seven, eight years now. And he's kind of built up this maturity to understand, okay, how do I really maneuver around an NFL pocket? Like, what does NFL timing really feel like? Whereas I

feel like for a lot of his time in Cleveland, he kind of struggled to grasp some of that. But I think now that he's played in some more offenses, really gotten to play around some good play callers. Obviously, his time with Sean McVeigh, Canales did a good job last year. Liam Cohen has been fantastic this year. I just think you're seeing a player who kind of always had the throwing talent, and now you're seeing him play with a lot more confidence. And that's allowed him to play at an above average level when he just didn't do that for a majority of his career before Tampa. Yeah, I think it's the right mix because you want to have a confidence but not a recklessness, right? You need to have some life experience sometimes. You need to maybe be humbled a little bit or

have things go wrong and have it not just be easy. And so I think all of those past experiences, sometimes for some players, they can defeat you. But in his case, no. And I think really, you know, in looking at the three guys we're putting in this category, they've all, in Jared Goff and Gino Smith and Baker Mayfield, they've all kind of come through some difficult situations or they played through a wide range of experiences with expectations, with supporting cast, with coaches. And I think what you're talking about is the confidence of knowing he's the guy there, I think is a big deal for him, but not feeling entitled, not acting entitled. And so there's a little bit of a balancing act to him.

But as I was looking at his first seven games of a season, okay, he is right now his highest completion rate, 71%, highest yards per game, 270, second highest yard per attempt, 7.9, most touchdown passes 18, highest passer rating 107, highest EPA per play, 0.117. So this is better than we've seen him produce before. It's not just a mirage of our mind. And it looks to me like he's found probably a home, a longer term home. I think he has. And I think another portion of why it's so cool is like they're letting him throw down the field. It's what he did at Oklahoma, right? Like they spread it out. They used a lot of motion to get guys open and he was just willing to make those downfield throws. And that's pretty much

all that, you know, Dave Canales did a little bit of that last year. And then Liam Cohen is only further unlocked that. So it's just a cool marriage of kind of like you said, him growing up a little bit and then them finding a lot of what really makes him work in 2024. And now it's going to get much harder for him without these wide receivers. And so we'll have to take all that into account because what's around you is a big difference for any player, but especially for a quarterback who's going to take a disproportionate amount of the blame and get too much of the credit. And now this is a big sort of a dynamic shift, a challenge for Liam Cohen as well. And there's just, let's just face it, it's not going to be as good as it's been. And we just have to have, keep that in mind in our evaluation

at the end of the season and probably not be too hard on him because it's going to probably fall off. All right, let's move along to Jared Goff. And you talk about somebody who has seen the best and the worst in his career. I remember when he came in as a rookie, you could have, a lot of smart people would have bet that Jared Goff was never going to be a good quarterback. I mean, it was as bad of a situation as you could have. And then within a year or two, he's in the Super Bowl and it couldn't look better. falls again back. Derek, I feel like the lions have basically reprised the 2018 Rams here.

I'm sure Jared Goff's better. I'm sure he's matured. I'm sure he's, I'd rather have this version of him now than then. But I have to really think a ton of this has to do, which is having a good team around him. He's been a talented player the whole time, don't you think? Yeah, and I think what's kind of cool about what the lions are doing right now is it's kind of the the best of both in the sense that it is a great team around him, kind of like those 2018 Rams, but also some of why it works is some of the development that he's made as a player.

But you mentioned those 2018 Rams teams. They had the best offensive line in football. They had one of the best run games in football. And that is part of what is allowed Jared Gough to stay in some comfortable down in distances, where he's in more second in fives than he is in second in nines. And that's a place that you want to be with a guy like Jared Gough. And then obviously the bones of the offense are kind of similar, where it's a lot of play action. We're trying to throw these routes over the middle of the field.

We have, you know, obviously they have Amon Ross St. Brown, who is kind of like analogous to what the Rams were doing at the time with Cooper Cup. So I think all of that is really cool. And then to me, what Jared Gough has added to that is when you really watched him in Los Angeles, he wasn't that great of a pure dropback passer. He wasn't good at replacing blitzes. He was a guy when he got pressured. He just didn't know what his answer was. And maybe there's some degree of, you know, Sean McVeigh just wasn't asking him to be that player. early on. But I think now that almost again, like the Baker Mayfield thing, Jared Dawes been around

for like eight years now and he's seen a lot more offenses. He's gotten a lot more opportunities. He's gotten more drop-back situations, pure blitz situations. He's actually gotten better at being able to just replace a blitz and know when he's hot and like, okay, I've just got to take this hit and I've just got to throw this ball. And he's just done such a better job of kind of lifting the floor of the passing offense, which I just don't think that was the case in Los Angeles. I think the run game was the floor lifter at the time. Well, and remember at the time back then, too, is, hey, Sean McVease telling him the answers to the test during the game, you know, and that sort of a thing. And we're definitely not. He's not, the training wheels are off if they were ever on. There's no doubt about it. Now, I'm just, I love to do to go back and look at some of the comparisons. So Jared Goff in 2018 was 6 and 0. He was actually averaging more yards per temp than than now, 9.9 to 9.3, pass rating exactly the same. One of the differences this year has been. third and six or longer.

Three touchdowns, no interceptions, 134 rating. A little bit better production there. I went back and watched a lot of those plays. I'm not going to read overly too much into them. It's a smaller sample size. And I don't think that all of the sudden, Jared Goff has just figured out that now in third and long, he's going to be unbeatable.

I think these things will ebb and flow throughout the season. I think the best third and long pastor this year is Joe Flacco. I don't think he's figured it out either. So I'm reminded in doing these things But my point is, you ever play golf? Yes, absolutely. Yeah. What do you normally shoot?

I mean, around 100. I'm not the greatest. Yeah, I shoot about a 90. But I've been 100 through five holes before. And if we did a video documentary with someone following me around, we could make it look like I'm a really good golfer, right? And so in these splits of games where it's super off the charts, these things are going to even out over the course of a full season.

And so that's kind of what I want to see for Detroit down the stretch. I think one of the things that was raised to me by somebody who had studied them before the year was, hey, are people going to be a little bit more on to Detroit this year having studied them? And there were maybe a couple signs of that early, but I'm not seeing that now. I think they've been able to really play on their terms. and as you mentioned when Jared Goss had to get in a dropback situations, he's been

comfortable and confident back there. Like his willingness to stand in the pocket and just not kind of wilt on there, not play small in the pocket? Do you think that that has, is that what you're talking about? Do you think that that's improved for him and maybe gives them a little bit more staying power

this season as maybe the situations, maybe there will be some ebbs and flows. Maybe their defense without Aidan Hutchinson will you know, falter at certain times and it'll be more on his plate. What do you think about that? I think absolutely. Like, he's still not going to be a guy who goes and creates outside the pocket when he's pressured. But I remember early on in L.A., he was the guy where if you got pressure on him, especially along the interior, he would still try to make throws, but he just didn't feel like he ever had the right answer. And he wasn't fully confident in a lot of the throws that he's making.

The way that Jared Gough is playing right now, he is a guy who is very confident about like, all right, I know I'm going to get hit, but I also know Amon Ross St. Brown is going to be in the right spot on this dig route. So I just got to get it off and I got to throw it. And he'll go do that. But he also kind of has this switch now where he can go one, two, three, four, five and just like sprint to his checkdown. That just really wasn't the case in Los Angeles. He was just a guy who, if his first or second read wasn't there and he got pressured, play was dead. And something bad was going to happen. He's a lot better now at mitigating the bad plays, which I think is huge for this offense. And also has the confidence you talked about with Baker. He's the guy there. So they love him.

there. No one's, he doesn't have, you know, Sean McVeigh at that stage of his career had his eye on different quarterbacks, right? He, he saw some of the limitations, wanted more. I feel like Goff really has found a home in a way that just probably makes it easier to play quarterback, not be looking over your shoulder and know that your coach has got your back and your team's got your back. And the whole city's got his back. I mean, I think that, I think that counts for a lot for just the confidence of a quarterback and being able to to weather really whatever happens. Even if they had a bad month, I don't think it's a big deal. I don't either.

And like it kind of like you're talking about, they brought him in specifically to like do this entire rebuild. Whereas when Sean McVeigh came in, golf was already the quarterback and he had to figure it out. And so that's I think where some of the, I see some of the limitations three, four years into it. Whereas Detroit said, no, this is the guy that we want to kind of do this rebuild. And fits exactly in the vision of how the coach wants to win the games anyway. I think they're really in a great situation.

All right. Gino Smith. So Gino Smith, to me, remains underrated, okay? In the quarterback tiers, Gino Smith say, 3.00 average. So Tier 3 is basically, hey, you're a legitimate starter, but you're going to need more defense, need more run game to really, you know, to win consistently.

Now, they were 9 and 8 last year. It wasn't because of their run game. I can tell you that. It wasn't because of their offensive line. They have good weaponry, no doubt, good wide receivers. But here he is back this year. The defense has been up and down all over the place. But Gino Smith, now indoor Gino Smith, I've done some notes on that.

He indoors, he's unbelievable. But Gino Smith, to me, I don't know what he will have to do to move up a little bit in the eyes of the league. Do people just, do you see these limitations that are making people kind of just leave him as a three and not really give him more than that? I really don't. I think Gino Smith is playing it. such an incredible level right now. I honestly think the only thing that's going to move the needle is them just winning games, which is, it's frustrating because like the team is just maybe not in a great enough position right now to do that. But, you know, we've talked about some of these other

quarterbacks like Jared Goff. I think Jared Goff right now is in one of the best situations for a quarterback. And he's also doing a really good job of executing all of that. Gino Smith is in not a great situation for a quarterback. Obviously, you know, I think sometimes we look at just the receivers and we go, Oh, D.K. Metcalfe, Tyler, Lockett, Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. He's got guys to throw to. But also, they have one of the worst offensive lines in football right now, and their defense, like you said, is kind of liable to putting up 30 points in certain weeks. And so he's kind of always having to play football on hard mode. And you really only get these Seahawks wins when he plays at like a 90th percentile level for what he can do. And I think why it's so fun to watch is he's just one of the

most brave quarterbacks in the pocket. Just the guy who he's going to stand in there and he's going to make some wild throw 25 yards down the field. And it's cool to see because early on in Gino Smith's career, there was a level of like arrogance and ignorance to the way that he played in the pocket. Like he just, he would get blitzed and he just wouldn't know what was going on and he would stand in there and take a hit. Now he'll still stand in there. But he's so good at understanding where to move and how to get out and what to do and how to extend the play. even just from the pocket, let alone what he can do outside the pocket. So he's just from an armed talent and bravery standpoint.

He's just one of the coolest quarterbacks to watch. That's great that you said bravery because I've got my little notes on my screen. And so with Gino, my first notes were house money feel fearless. I just feel he's fearless. Like this guy knows, this guy's so grateful to be in the position he's at. He feels like, you know, he survived a terrible diagnosis. And now the rest of his life is just a bonus, right? Doesn't it? It's like this guy.

The terrible diagnosis is the Jets. He had a career diagnosis that it was over. And now this must be, he's made some money. Like he didn't have to hold out and try to get more. He's like, he signed the deal for whatever, $25, $30 million. And he's like, he can't believe this. And he just plays with it. So as I'm watching them against Atlanta, he may stand in his own two yard line and make

a far hash throw to the very edge of the field at the nine yard line with the corner kind of, duh. And it gets there. Gino doesn't care. You know, he might before the half, when the clock's running down, he may just throw a 25-yard laser with four defenders closing in around D.K. Metcalfe to make the back-breaking touchdown. Now, I would imagine when he's releasing that ball and there's no separation and there's defenders closing in, the coaches might be going, uh-uh.

And then you go, yeah. Unbelievable type of a play, back-breaking type. play to really win the game. So that fearlessness that he plays with, to me, is really refreshing. I just think it's hard to watch him without the context of his whole career and you almost enjoy him better because of you know, you know where he came from, you know? Absolutely. Like it's, it's cool to watch because there's just not a lot. Like you said, he feels like he's playing with house money where he just, it's like, what, if I have a couple of bad games, what's going to happen? I'm going to get benched and my career's over. My career was already over. I've been there. Like, I've already

been there. Like, I might as well just try to see what I can do and get out of this. And he's really playing in a cool way. It's funny. You mentioned the thing about the coaches, you know, being like, ah, is he really going to make this throw? I think Mike McDonald literally came out after the game talking about that DK Metcalf touchdown. And he was like in the moment McDonald was thinking, oh, shoot, he's really going to throw it. And he said that. And then it gets complete. And you're just like, well, I guess my guy can just do that. And we're just better. And it's just, it's so cool when you have a quarterback who can kind of shock you in the moment like that. I paused it right when I thought he made the decision to throw.

And I was like looking where everybody is. It's amazing, you know. And by the time the ball gets in there, there's traffic. But he had, he knew he had enough space. He does have a really good arm. Other thing about them, remember when Russell Wilson was there and wanted them to the pass more and I created the Cook Index, you know, how quickly, how much do you throw in early downs in the first 28 minutes of the game?

Seattle's number one in the Cook Index this year. It's the Let Geno Cook Index. They're passing 62% of the time in those situations ahead of Cincinnati, who always is up there. They always want to throw the ball. So it's not like they're just, you know, taking the ball out of his hands and handing off. They're winning to me with, you know, Smith. And if you give them, you know, a decent defense and then you have now a running back who can make, and Kenneth Walker can make a spectacular catch last week, as it turns out, but make some big plays.

I'm with you. I want to see more. We'll see if maybe they finish strong enough. That division is open now, I think, a little bit with the 49ers situation. Maybe that's what it'll take for them. We'll take a quick break here and come back with a little Aaron Rogers talk. All right, we are back going through the 2024 quarterback tiers. We looked at a few guys who are maybe outperforming or outproducing where the coaches and execs in the league saw them.

And now we're going to talk about Aaron Rogers. And it might be a little inaccurate to say that he's producing way below what people thought because people thought a whole bunch of different things about Aaron Rogers coming into this season. He had 23 votes in Tier 1, 18 in Tier 2, 7 in Tier 3, and 2 in Tier 4. So no one really knew what to expect. It was really just a matter of like how much of the best. benefit of the doubt we're going to give him.

I have some thoughts on Rogers, but I'm curious what you think right now about just where he's at as a player. One of the things that one of the voters said to me was like, hey, I don't know what these guys are doing, putting them down in tier three. He'd upgrade 28 of the teams in the league. Where are you at with where Rogers is at, perception, reality? Are you surprised? What do you got?

I wouldn't say surprised. I think in a lot of ways we've kind of gotten a little bit what I expected of Aaron Rogers. And then I think the offensive line has just made the whole situation worse and like kind of made him produce and kind of below his level. But I think what we're getting out of Rogers is one, the offense is the Aaron Rogers offense. It's a lot of like basic quick game. It's a lot of they want to get under center and throw some of those smoke screens that are, you know, attached to run plays. He wants to throw a bunch of back shoulder balls to the guys that he trusts, whether it's Alman Lizard in 2024 for some reason or obviously bring in Devante Adams now.

Like he's just, there's a particular way that he wants to run the offense. And it's a very like players. It's like ISO ball. They're playing ISO ball on a football field. It's not like a very schemed up offense the way you see in like Detroit. This is just our guys are better and we're going to block it up and we're going to make the plays. And right now the problem is just they're not blocking it up. I think the offensive line is playing certainly below the level that I expected,

but they're not playing at a good enough level right now. And that kind of compounds the fact that Aaron Rogers just isn't the mover that he used to be. Obviously coming off the Achilles, but even before that, he had already kind of lost a little bit of the juice that made him just an absolute magician in and out of the pocket. And so when you have some of those factors, right now this offense is kind of living off of those like three or four MVP Aaron Rogers throws. And then a whole lot of are they going to protect him before something goes wrong type of plays? I mean, I think that is spot on exactly what's happening. Like, I don't think anyone else could come in and try to do what Rogers is doing exactly any better than he's doing it.

I just don't think they're together long enough or able to pull off what he wants to do. And if he had all these guys for the last five years and you might be able to do it. But I think this is what we're learning is this is really hard to put together on the fly the best of what Rogers was when he had continuity in Green Bay. I still think he can pass the ball as well as almost anybody. If you look at the throws on a play-by-play basis, even his incomplete throws. A shoot, interception last week hit Garrett Wilson right in the five, you know.

But there's just not a cohesiveness. It really feels like a mishmash almost. and I'm not sure. I think it will get better as the season goes on. They play some easier defenses. My concern is just his ability to kind of weather it physically and be able to hold up to kind of stand in there and make enough plays while they buy time maybe to have these guys get up to speed with him

because doesn't it feel like he's going to throw a ball that you have to have played a lot of ball with Rogers to catch? a lot. You see the receivers run up the sideline and then all of a sudden the ball's flying out of bounds because he threw some back shoulder ball and the guy he's playing with just wasn't on the same page. And it almost feels like Rogers is okay with that rather than adjusting. Right. That's the thing. It's like he, that's why he wants his guys. That's why he made sure this team signed Alan Lazard, who like isn't that great of a player, but he knows exactly how fast Lizard can run. He knows exactly what it looks like when Lazard is open, you know, 15 yards down the

field or he's contested. He knows exactly where it needs to be put for Alan Lazzard. And so I think kind of like you're mentioning, some of the mishmash in the offense so far has been trying to work in those other receivers. Like, he's had some miscommunication issues, I think, with Mike Williams early in the season. Obviously, the one big interception he threw, I think against Buffalo was kind of like a, you know, him and Williams weren't on the same page. Some of the Garrett Wilson stuff has been, you know, Wilson's been productive, but it's been a little bit more up and down than I think some people would have wanted. So I think that's certainly part of it. And I do think by the end of the season, it could look a little bit cleaner, especially with the guys he's not already familiar

with, you know, maybe the Garrett Wilson's and stuff like that. But you know, you kind of brought up, can he weather it physically? That's mostly what I'm worried about, especially behind again, an offensive line that's not playing very well. And doesn't it just feel like almost more than any other quarterback? When he gets hit and he's on the ground, it takes a little bit longer for him to get up than some of the other guys. And I get it. He's 40 and he's coming off an Achilles, but it's just sometimes it's, it makes me a little bit uneasy to watch. Oh, we, We've already had, you know, some really viral memes of him trying to get up off the ground, you know. So that's a bad sign.

And I'm with you. He does kind of look like he's, you know, a drunk guy looking for something on the floor sometimes, you know, it's slow to get up. So I've worried about that not only through the course of the season, but through the course of some of these games, like can he hold up late in a game even? So I'm with you. I think it will look better as it goes along. But this is going to be it. There's no more trying this again next year. This is going to be it for him and the Jets, in my opinion.

Okay, let's move on from the guys outperforming and underperforming their tiers to four guys, maybe, with the most at stake over the rest of the season. Derek, I led my pick six column on Monday with a look at Brock Purdy in the context of the 49ers situation. For most of this year, Brock Purdy has shown us some good things, that with it not being as right around him and no Christian McCaffrey, been able to create off schedule and make some plays. But there's a growing foreboding sense now with Brandon I.U. Kurt and, you know, some of the other issues going on there that it may not look so good.

They're a three and four football team with some, you know, maybe not as good at depth on defense. They have some special teams issues and coming off a tough game against Kansas City. Brock Purdy going into a contract year, what's at stake you think for him? it almost feels like this year without Christian McCaffrey obviously being able to be the floor lifter they've kind of built the offense to see like all right what what can Purdy really do at his peak like what can he really do if we start being really aggressive with the football and pushing the ball down the field and asking more of him and I think the results have been good but I also worried how sustainable they were because he had at least this was true up until this week

I don't remember if it was after this week, but he had like the highest air yards in the league where he was just, I mean, chucking it down the field more than anybody. And he wasn't doing a lot of the, you know, throwing checkdowns and throwing screens that they were doing previously in the offense, especially with Christian McCaffrey. And on one hand, it was productive, right? And it was working. They were still putting up points on offense. And IUC was making a number of really impressive catches.

Debo was making some impressive catches. And that's kind of the thing is that when you had these receivers, yeah, go, go give them some some opportunities, you know, 15, 20 yards down the field into tight windows. And Purdy was making those throws and those guys were making those catches. It's just, I always had this nagging feeling that like, man, that's a hard way to live. It's really hard when you are trying to make only, only live on these throws 20 yards down the field. And I just thought that was hard. And that's why, to me, it's always been the Christian McCaffrey of it all. It's like, man, if they got him back and could actually add more of those just five-yard passes, let's get some simple yards here,

would change the math of everything, but it's just looked so uneven, I think, without him. Yeah, absolutely. The sustainability component is probably the biggest. I, you know, I think he's still shown enough to be their guy. I think there will be a contract extension of some sort, probably for him after the season. And I think, really, hopefully from a team standpoint, you could do that at a reasonable level and not have to go way over the top of everything. Purdy's never really made any money.

But he was really going from, you know, on cruise control towards, probably another, he was in the MVP conversation last season to probably having to slug it out a little bit more this year. And we'll see what kind of answers they have as people start to maybe defend his weapons more than the system, right? If the system isn't as dynamic as it's been for some of those reasons we talked about and it's easier to take away some of these guys, he could be running and scramble around and maybe making some bad decisions as we saw this last week more than he had in the past. So I think they'll be really interesting. They've got a Dallas this week. Maybe they get right.

Maybe they have a big game. Yeah, it's a good get right game and a buy. So they could be feeling pretty good in a couple of weeks. But that one, I think we've got to put a little asterisk by for there could be turbulence. Maybe keep your seatbelts fastened for a little bit here. Well, we try to find some airspace that isn't as bouncy as it's been lately. All right. Sam Darnold.

Sam Darnold, the Vikings' chances felt like they were nil almost to a lot of people when we found out he was going to be the starting quarterback. Some thought this would be a great opportunity for him to revive his career. Where were you at coming into the year, Derek? And how do you feel about Sam? And really, what's the stake for him now? Yeah, you know, I thought Sam Darnold would play like, hmm, how do I frame this? that like individually I thought he would play like quarterback 21 and then Kevin O'Connell and the offensive line would lift him to the point where he could be like moderately above average in terms

of production. And I think it's kind of even been a better version than that. Like I think we're getting fewer of the Sam Darnold, what the hell are you doing plays and more of the, you know, just Kevin O'Connell kind of keeping him on the tracks and keeping things the way that they need to be going. So that's really kind of been my biggest takeaway actually. actually is that I think Kevin O'Connell has just done a truly unbelievable job at keeping him on the tracks and not letting him get into those Sam Darnold's going on type of plays. Yeah, I think when they were, you know, 5 and O and there were some people probably overestimating what his role was in it.

But I did that. I've been struck by this. I think maybe this is some of what you're saying. There haven't been a lot of disaster plays. He tried to have one against Houston, you know, kind of flipping the ball full. forward, but for the most part, he's avoided that just sort of bonehead decision thing. And then I think there's been the touchdown pass to Jefferson for 25 yards, far out hash outside the numbers, defensive back never really had a chance.

That was a little bit of a wow to me. For a lot of the games, there's just not a lot of wows with him. But I've seen a couple of them here where I thought, okay, maybe he can, as he gains confidence throughout the season. Maybe he can weave in a few more of those and not have the disaster plays that I think, you know, a lot of people have been feeling were inevitable going to come with him. He was better, I think, playing from behind in this last game against Minnesota, save for the early interception, which was kind of a weird play.

But for the most part, I thought he held up better in that situation than I thought maybe he would. I agree. And I do think part of it is like this Vikings' offensive line is just, doing a really, really good job of protecting him. Great point. This receiving course is just, obviously we knew Justin Jefferson was the best receiver in the league, but it feels like Jordan Addison has taken a little bit of a step. They're getting way more from Jalen Naylor than I thought they were going to get coming

into this season. He was the guy who, you know, when I looked at the Vikings roster coming into the year, I was like, that's their number three option. Like that's kind of what they're rolling with, but he's actually been really impressive to me. And so I think, you know, with as good as the surrounding talent is, it kind of feels like the equation for them is just, can we get three of the, oh my God, Sam Darnold throws? Like the one you just mentioned to Jefferson. He had another one to Addison in this game. It's like, can you just

get three of those? Because to me, the run game and the offensive line being good in pass protection, that's almost a given. Like, I just think the way that those guys are playing, Kevin O'Connell's you meet up, that's almost a given. Obviously, Justin Jefferson will make a couple of plays. It's just Sam Darnold, can you make three of those throws that reminds me why you were a top 10 pick? And so far they've gotten that pretty much every week. I think this is a team that thought it got out of the business of what are we going to do at quarterback after the season. And probably is not going to change their long-term plans. But I think it's just going to be a very interesting future for Sam Darnold because they're going to have a successful season.

I think for the most part, he's not going to probably just totally melt down. And the situation's too good. He's probably made enough strides as well. But at the end of the year, someone's going to have to make a decision. Now, if they were to make a Super Bowl run or something, maybe Minnesota has to make a decision. But someone's going to have to make a decision on Sam Darnold and calculated in their mind, let's just say if he's on the market and we're available. What's it going to look like when we don't have this offensive line? We don't have these wide receivers.

If we don't have Kevin O'Connell, could he be the type of player who signed for a decent contract? You know, maybe one of those Geno Smith type ones or Baker-Mefield type of contract. and then you don't have that around them, and now you're living with the bad side of Sam Darnold, right? Where would you be? If this were to continue the rest of the year and you were a team looking for a quarterback, where are you on Sam Darnold? That's where it gets complicated to me because to me this is like 75% on Kevin O'Connell just being what he is in some of the surrounding talent. And I don't want to say it's like if they could throw any quarterback in there. But I mean, they're throwing Sam Darnold in there and being one of the best.

offenses in the league. So there is some degree of like, I think Kevin O'Connell could get away with this with a lot of guys. And I do start to wonder what it looks like if you were to, if the situation were different. Like that's what we saw in Carolina, right? When he was with the Panthers, obviously he had like a really good three or four games stretch to open the season. But for the most part was not a very consistent player for them. On the flip side, I'm very happy for him that he is going to like probably get paid because of the way that he's playing this season because it kind of felt like this was almost like his last chance to do that. Obviously, the whole Jets thing just kind of goes awry. He gets an opportunity in Carolina. That doesn't really seem to fix anything. And this kind of felt like

his third strike, like if this would have gone wrong, it would have been the third strike. The fact that it's going so well and he probably inevitably will get paid by somebody, I do think that that's just really cool for him. And we've got to talk about some of these success stories of guys, you know, that have some talent, Ginov Smith or Baker Mayfield or Jared Gough and now we're talking about Darnold, the situation is so critical for these guys. And this is an excellent situation for Donald. I think you have a good sense of it, too, of how much to maybe give the credit where. It's not a disrespect to Sam Darnold, but certainly it's a reflection of a lot of things around it. We'll take a quick break here and come back with a couple more guys with the most

at stake this season. Okay, we are back from Sam Darnold and Brock Pertie to Kirk Cousins. Derek, Falcons, four and three. Play three of their next four on the road, then have a buy. They're at Tampa, home Dallas, at New Orleans, at Denver. All winnable games, if this team really is in the mix, I'm not sure if they are. But also there's a worst-case scenario where they go one in three or five and six. What's at stake for Kirk Cousins as you look at this team right now coming off of a pretty bad loss to Seattle 34 to 14? I hesitate to say this because I understand the history of believing in the Falcons in any capacity,

but I kind of want to believe in this version of the Falcons offense. And I know they're coming off of a 20-point loss to the Seahawks this week, but I actually think Kirk is playing about as well as he can for a guy who is almost 40 years old and is coming off of an Achilles. Like when you watch him, this is still very much a guy who cannot move around in the pocket. I actually went and looked this up in terms of throws out. Outside the pocket, not on play action. So this is taking out like designed rollouts and stuff.

Kurt Cousins has thrown four of those passes. Four. Marriota, Mario, two last week alone. We should set aside 20 seconds to look at that film, you know? And just see what those four plays. That would be all you need.

Exactly. And so, and Cousins was never a guy who made that many throws outside the pocket. But like, it is completely dead from his game right now. And the fact that he's kind of just, And there are even some throws in the pocket where you can see like, ah, he was just a little bit uncomfortable and couldn't drive that ball. And so I think the fact that some of that is true,

and he is still kind of playing at the level he's playing at, like his connection with Drake London right now, I think is fantastic. His connection with Darnell Mooney has been shocking to me. Like he's gotten Mooney to play some of the best and most consistent ball. I think we've probably ever seen from him, which has been really cool. And then you add all of that on top of the fact that kind of feels to me like the run game is a little bit starting to get going. Like Bejohn is obviously one of the most explosive running backs in the league. Tyler Aousier is a starting caliber running back on almost any other roster. He just happens to be behind Vizjan Robinson.

So I actually kind of think they have a good thing going here. And I think schematically, they're actually doing a pretty good job. Like, I noticed this one thing that they do, they so consistently will motion a guy out to be the new number one wide receiver on the outside so that they can hide whoever they want to be the slot receiver as the slot receiver in, like change it late. Like they do this a lot with Drake London, where he becomes. like the new slot receiver right before the snap. And they've just done such a good job of giving Kirk answers.

And he's playing well. So I don't think this is going to be a 12 win team by the end or anything. But I think they can win this division, truthfully. Yeah, I think that'll be, and especially when we've talked about what happened with Tampa Bay and their wide receiver situation, we know where New Orleans and Carolina are at. So, yeah, if I'm them, I'm thinking we need to win this division title. Now, I think it will be, these things often take care of themselves. If Kirk were to have an injury late in the season or something, you know,

all the clarity tends to arrive over time, right? We're trying to project something now. We don't have the information. We don't know how he's going to hold up or what it's going to look like down the stretch or is a team going to overachieve or underachieve. But he is going to be a viable starting quarterback beyond this year. It could be in Atlanta or there could be options to consider there. There could be other teams or places or things to think about.

I think I get the sense that he likes it there and that they like him there and that it's good setup and they can probably do it for a while longer. I don't think this is one of those where they have to move on from him after one year, but it's going to be a question, just depending on how the season finishes, where he's at, how he holds up, all of those things. But I'm with you. He has a 500-yard game this year, so that's pretty good for anybody, especially coming off of an injury. Yeah, there's not been many of those. And so I'm, I think to me, if Kirk plays at this exact level for the rest of the season. And then we just like kind of make the projection of, okay, he'll be 10% healthier and a little bit more mobile next year. Yeah, I think that would be a

pretty really good spot for this offense to be in. Yep, I'm with you. Okay, last guy in the most at stake category, we put Jalen Hertz down on here. And I don't think, I mean, Jalen Hertz is going to be the starting quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles next year. So he's, we're not saying anything like that. But why is he on this list for you with Philadelphia? obviously it's a big year for the Eagles. To me, Jalen Hertz has always kind of been a frustrating player to me because I think he's always been a guy who's been pretty limited in the way that he works. Like he's always been a fantastic deep ball thrower.

Some of what he can do, you know, throwing RPO's, I think, has, and even throwing some quick game outside the numbers has been good. He's, for the early part of his career was good at not making turnovers. That's not been as true the last year and a half or so. And then to me, he was always. not a guy who made contested throws from the pocket. It's just that when you play behind the best offensive line in football, that is usually not a problem.

I just think we're seeing kind of this year with some of the roster attrition that we've had. They've obviously been banged up a little bit on the offensive line. I think we're just seeing some of the frustrations with Hertz being a passer who doesn't always throw with anticipation and doesn't really throw the middle of the field. I think it just makes for such a limited offense. Like, I actually went and looked this up. in terms of throws that are between the numbers and beyond like I think it was 10 to 20 yards Jalen Hertz has only thrown 12 of those passes so like that's the intermediate just the core of the

field you've got to make those throws dig routes seam routes all that stuff Drake May has already thrown 10 of those passes and he's played two games and obviously they're very different quarterbacks but that just kind of speaks to the point that like these are just not throws that Jalen Hertz is making and I think it's part of why this offense feels like they're kind of moving towards playing like a military academy in the way that the offense is set up. Yes. Yeah, I know. I was watching this last game of theirs, a big convincing win over the Giants and having some of those frustrations.

And then he makes this great deep ball throw to AJ. And he'll still do that. With a guy right in his face. And you go, okay, that's, I want to see that. There's not everybody can do that. But they just feel like, I just want to know what they're going to be long. term around him and with him and where how it all fits together. And I think that's been a recurring storyline for them as their staff has been continually shaken up. And one week, you know,

people are talking about Nick Seriani's job and the next week they win big. And what's going to be sort of the rhythm they settle into and the vision for how they're playing long term? And I just feel like we don't really know. Do you feel that uncertainty? Yeah. And to me it kind of feels like, you remember at the end of the the Russell Wilson era in Seattle where they kept changing offensive coordinators. But at the end of the day, the Russell Wilson offense was the Russell Wilson offense. It feels like that's kind of where we're at with Jalen Hertz. Like obviously he has the incredible season in 2022, but then Stuyken leaves to go be the Colts coach. They promote Brian Johnson. And it's like, okay, they'll probably change the offense a little bit. They got to do

something different. They really didn't. It was the same offense. They were playing the hits. Then this off season, they bring in Kellyn Moore, who is completely off of their tree and doesn't do any of their stuff. Like this is more of a traditional, we get under center, we run the ball. You know, you're going to throw these routes with timing. I mean, his past two quarterbacks were Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott, who are two are the most just like traditional play the quarterback position, that way type of guys. And so I thought maybe the offense would change it into that mold.

And it hasn't. Like they've kind of just gone back to a lot of the stuff that Jalen Hertz is comfortable with. And that to me has been why this feels so frustrating. Yes. One of those opened up the quarterback tiers. from before the season, and I was looking through the comments on Jalen Hertz. And a lot of him, he gets a lot of respect from people for just his career journey and his

arc and the way he's kind of dedicated himself to persevere through a lot of different things and outperform expectations. But one of the negative comments was when he got hurt and he became immobile and they had to throw the ball, he showed what he was. I think they might have paid a guy that they're going to have to have a really good team around to win games. I might agree with that. How about you?

I think I certainly agree with that. And like, I think in terms of the offensive skill talent, I think they do have that. You know, again, I think they could unlock it a little bit more if Hertz was a little bit more willing to throw the middle of the field. But they are probably still going to be able to get by offensively and have an above average offense just by virtue of, you know, Sequin Barclay, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goddard and Devonza Smith, all being Pro Bowl caliber players. I guess it's just a matter at that point of like how much, how many times can the defense, you know, keep the opposing team under 24 or something like that. And so that to me feels like where we're at with this team and this version of Jalen Hertz. Yeah, absolutely. So a lot of stake for those guys. Well, that's a wrap. Derek, we made it through without Robert Mays. He'll be back soon. When's Robert coming back?

He'll be back this week. This is just a one day thing. Robert will be back for the week-a preview of the athletics. athletic football show with Derek later this week. Records on Thursday coming your way on Friday. All right. So we'll look forward to that. Derek, I'll look forward to our next conversation. Thanks for having me along.

And we'll talk to you next time.