The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2025 NFL Midseason Awards

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

Doing your midseason awards at the exact midpoint of the season might be cool, but you know what's even cooler? Doing them 55.6% of the way through the season. And that's exactly what Robert Mays, Der...rik Klassen and Dave Helman do at the midway point, plus one week. Who's the Offensive Player of the Year, Jonathan Taylor or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Can anyone challenge Myles Garrett for the Defensive Player of the Year crown? And who's the MVP. We hand out all the awards—not only those three, but also Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Protector of the Year, Coach of the Year, Assistant Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year—on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Rundown (timestamps are approximate)4:32 Offensive Player of the Year12:55 Defensive Player of the Year27:28 Offensive Rookie of the Year35:53 Defensive Rookie of the Year42:22 Protector of the Year49:01 Coach of the Year58:43 Assistant Coach of the Year1:07:55 Executive of the Year1:14:40 MVPConnect with The Athletic Football ShowX: https://x.com/TA_FootballShowIG: https://www.instagram.com/tafootballshowYT: https://www.youtube.com/@TAFootballShowTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tafootballshowDiscord: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowCall us: 847-448-0701Email us: athleticfootballshow@gmail.comHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerVideo Producer: Katy DuffyAudio Producer: Michael BellerSocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Me, Derek, and Dave did our mid-season awards today. Really, really enjoyed a bunch of these conversations. I think it's such a cool year for awards chatter just because of how surprising so many of the best performances in the league have been. We talked about the group of guys up for MVP this year, which is a shocking collection of players considering where we were before this season. It's a fun defensive player of the year discussion this year. a two-man race for offensive player of the year
Starting point is 00:00:32 that I did not expect to look like this. Coach of the year was a really good one. So we had a bunch of different answers. I think a lot of really fun cases made over the course of this show. So let's just get to it. Midseason awards, me, Derek Classen, Dave Hellman. Let's get to it right now.
Starting point is 00:00:53 Midseason awards time on the old athletic football show. I've been looking forward to this one. This is the first midweek show. I think all three of us have done from the studio this year. Is that not correct? You and I did team tears together. I think this is the first midweek show not counting previews that all three of us
Starting point is 00:01:09 have done together, period. I think that's right. I think so. I don't think even when I was back home, I don't think we did any of these, all three of us together. I'm very excited for this conversation. Just a quick heads up.
Starting point is 00:01:18 I'm sure there are some of you who listened to me on Football 301 last week picking awards with Nate. For reasons that some legitimate, some just for the sake of content, I have all different choices. You're switching. Oh, you're switching up.
Starting point is 00:01:32 I'm switching almost all. of them. There's only one. There's, there are two, two to three actual answers that I'm sticking with as like, okay, these are my real answers. And then a lot of the other ones that were coin flips, I've just decided to go the other way for the sake of like entertaining myself. As someone who listened to that episode, I'm ready to call you a genius or a coward depending on what you do. I think there's so many where the margins are super slim that I'm just in the mood to kind of argue with myself today. And so don't just think this is going to be a rehashing of the conversation I had last week because for multiple different reasons,
Starting point is 00:02:05 I'm not going to allow that to happen. We're going to end with MVP. I've always enjoyed doing it that way. I like doing some of the smaller ones first and then we can build up to the most important award. So let's start with offensive player of the year. This is a fascinating year for this award specifically just because I think that there are two really,
Starting point is 00:02:22 really, really strong candidates. And which one you pick, in my opinion probably says more about you than it does about the candidacy of that player. So let's start with you, Derek. Your pick for offensive player of the year in 2020, halfway through the 2025 season is who? For me, it's actually JSN.
Starting point is 00:02:40 And I went into this. This is surprising. I know. I'm not surprised at all. Really? When he said actually it's J.S.N, I'm like, yeah, of course it is. I thought you would have been a Jonathan Taylor guy, honestly. I went into this with my process of being like,
Starting point is 00:02:53 how can I give it to the running back? Because I do think Jonathan Taylor has been incredible this year. And I think we're at a point in the league right now where there's just so many insanely good running backs. and when they have one of these seasons, I think it's really cool. But what JSN is doing statistically is just like, it's completely absurd. He has 20 more receiving yards a game than anyone else in the league. He's averaging a yard more than Cooper Cup did per game in his Triple Crown season in 2021.
Starting point is 00:03:17 He has 4.67 yards per route right now, which is like, it's an insane stack. It's almost a full yard over what Tyree Killed did in 20203, which is the best mark in the last decade. Did that go up from last week when you and they talked about it? No. 0.67 is up from where it was last week. I'm crazy. It's obscene. And he, and he's doing this with insane volume,
Starting point is 00:03:36 obviously 38.1% target rate, which is the highest in the last decade, outside of Puka last year, actually, funnily enough. And 20.2% of his routes become first downs. Nobody else in the last decade has been over 18%. Like,
Starting point is 00:03:50 He's just, the volume and efficiency is absurd. And an offense that doesn't have another guy who's taking pressure away from him, like they have other nice role players, but he is the guy. the volume and the concentrated volume is one of the biggest things for me.
Starting point is 00:04:05 The fact that he's getting almost 40% of the targets for the team that I believe is still number one in passing DVOA this season and the efficiency despite the volume, it's really, really, really hard to do that. To have 4.6 yards per route run while getting 38% of your team's targets is almost impossible to do.
Starting point is 00:04:25 And so I think Jonathan Taylor has been phenomenal this season, but JSN is still my pick for the, exact reason. Like, we're having a really, really good running back season from Jonathan Taylor. We are having a historic wide receiver season from JSN halfway through, and that's why I landed in the same place that I did last week. If you want me to, like, tear down JSN, I'm not going to do it. But Jonathan Taylor is your...
Starting point is 00:04:46 Jonathan Taylor is my offensive player of the year. And then the stats that go with JT are just as silly. He has more rushing yards than 20 NFL teams. He's averaging 189 attempts, so I think that's worth many. mentioning like this is not, you can't call this a small sample size. He's averaging six yards of carry. So what I wanted to do was go back and look at among running backs that have taken, I'll say like a meaningful share of carries.
Starting point is 00:05:14 I set the cut off at 150 because like if you take 150 carries, you're a little bit more than like a change of pace guy. Going back to the year 2000, only two running backs have carried the ball 150 times an average six years, 150 or more times an average six yards of carry. Adrian Peterson did it twice. which is that checks out not surprising but crazy including 2012 when he won MVP and then Jamal Charles did it in 2009 obviously Jamal Charles did it with a smaller sample size than Adrian Peterson but like that that's it when you're talking about being able to
Starting point is 00:05:46 average that many yards per carry over that heavy of a workload I mean the guys on pace for north of 300 touches best EPA per carry of the last decade so for reference Derek Henry had an EPA per play of point one one JT's at point 16 right now. Like he's he's blowing like statistically That's really good quarterback play. He is 8th in rushing yards over expectation in the next gen era which tracks this back to
Starting point is 00:06:13 2016. So over the last decade he's behind seven other running back seasons and all seven of those guys have a minimum of 80 more carries than he does right now. So like he's in their company doing it on fewer touches. He's on pace. I don't want to say he's going to do it because he's had a few like three touchdown games and you just can't count on that.
Starting point is 00:06:35 But he has got a shot at the first 20 rushing touchdown season since LT in 2006. Wow. He's at 15 with. And the Colts had a lay by. They're on their by right now. So like he only has, what's that? He's got seven games left to play. But that's doable.
Starting point is 00:06:52 You're five touchdowns away in seven games from the first 20 touchdown. I would bet on him scoring one a game from here. That feels that feels completely realistic to me. And then it's hard to quantify this stuff, but you just can't tell me that it doesn't have an effect on what Daniel Jones is doing. Like I know we all recognize that play action can be successful no matter who you're running back is. But when you're running back is Jonathan Taylor, I think it matters. He's Daniel Jones is third in the league in play action rate. Colts have the third highest play action rate in the league right now behind the Ravens and the Seahawks.
Starting point is 00:07:24 And the key difference there is that Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold have combined, for 117 play action attempts. Daniel Jones has 125 on his own. My God. So, like, they're just as explosive while doing it way more often. And you can't tell me that that's not Jonathan Taylor having an impact on things.
Starting point is 00:07:43 And if I had to think of a way, what I would say, like, if you're looking for a way to say to take JT over JSN, and I know this doesn't have a direct effect, but in the grand scheme of a game, I think it does. The Seahawks have a top five defense and the Colts are middle of the past. You know, and so, like, having that thing to fall back on, like, the Seahawks are one of the most complete teams in the league is what I'm trying to say.
Starting point is 00:08:07 I think the Colts are very, very, very much built out of Jonathan Taylor. The Taylor is their means for controlling the game. Whereas the Seahawks defense is that for them. I think that's all fair. I think that's all fair. I think that Jonathan Taylor is a key driver of why the Colts offensive ecosystem is arguably the best in the league right now. JSN to me is the Seahawks offensive ecosystem. There is no run game, right?
Starting point is 00:08:34 Their run game is actively bad. And so I think that is why, that's one of the reasons, aside from like the historic pace that he is currently on right now, that it's like if it's a coin flip, I'm tempted to just to give it to JSN. I don't feel strongly, like about who would win this award. I don't really. This isn't a situation where I'm like,
Starting point is 00:08:54 JT got screwed, but I just, I think it's really, impressive. And I know we have, obviously, Sam Donald did not play like this last year, but we have a, like, we have two, a season and a half of evidence that Sam Donald is a high level quarterback who can help a receiver reach new highs. I don't know that I would like what Daniel Jones looks like without Jonathan Taylor doing what he's doing for the Colts offense. And so like the overall effect that he is having on the Colts, I think is, it's just massive. That's fair. But at the same time, like the Colts offense is one of the most. most efficient passing offenses in the league. They have a play caller who will talk about at some point on this show. And we've discussed many times that their pass catching core, while without like a true superstar player, is arguably like the real-based most well-rounded,
Starting point is 00:09:42 complimentary group of pass-catchers, the entire NFL. Oh, they also have a top five offensive line. Yeah. These are all fair things. I think I will see like JSN is a worthy winner. I just got to make sure JT gets his flowers. The whole point is these are the two guys. that I think are in the conversation.
Starting point is 00:10:00 It'd be pretty surprising if somebody other than these two wins. I was going to say, did you even sort of consider anyone else? Because I did have one I wanted to make the argument before it was kind of ready to go. If Fuku was healthier. I think like it's going to be hard efficiency-wise, but like CMC has like some amount of argument. Yeah, I think that's been. He's second only to JT and yards from scrimmage per game and a lot of that is receiving. But that's also like the fact that they could be so banged up and turn to their running back as a receiver like
Starting point is 00:10:28 that it's a skill he's been incredible they're running back who also has had durability issues of his own who is carrying so much of the load for them no that's a fair point let's get you defensive player of the year Dave I'm going to let you start this one off who is your defensive player of the year halfway through 2025 so it feels I don't know do you do you guys agree with me that it feels disingenuous to say somebody other than Miles Garrett yes and no well like Please. It's the Mahomes thing where he's the answer every year. Yes. And so I think there are a couple different reasons. I would say you can say somebody out there's in Miles Garrett, which I'm going to just for the sake of argument.
Starting point is 00:11:11 The reason I ask is because that's what I did. Like if I was actually casting a vote for defensive player of the year, I would vote for Miles Garrett. But is that interesting? And so I went with somebody else for purely for the sake of conversation and for the fact that we have a whole second half of the season to go, like when we're actually talking about winning this award. here's what I would say. Miles Garrett right now, if you watch what Miles Garrett looks like down to down, Miles Garrett is the best defensive football player in the world. He's the best defensive football player in the world every single year. He is doing more against the run than he has ever done at any point in his
Starting point is 00:11:43 career this year. He's been better in that area than he's ever been. I think you make an argument that this is the best version we've ever seen of Miles Garrett just purely as a football player. And we said that last year. Yes. And which is crazy. The fact that he's like getting better. No one garners more attention from opposing offenses than Miles Garrett. No one's offensive game plan is built more essentially around Miles Garrett at the same time. Production wise, Miles Garrett right now, there are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven players per next year and that have more quarterback pressures than Miles Garrett. And so if you're trying to make an argument, that's one of them.
Starting point is 00:12:17 And the other one is, I just like for it to be different, right? Like, every once in a while, it's just fun to throw somebody else out there. I said Miles Garrett last week. I'm going to say somebody different now for the sake of conversation. I'd love to know what Miles Garrett's pressure numbers would look like if the Brown played in games that weren't out of whack in the second half so often. I mean, you're not facing a lot of pass attempts as those games go on. Anyway, if I was actually putting a ballot in the box or clicking,
Starting point is 00:12:41 what am I? Who am I kidding? What are you? You're clicking a button in 2025. If I was actually voting, I would say Miles Garrett. But for the sake of this, and there's a lot of season left to play, I would choose to highlight Aidan Hutchinson because he is leading the league in pressures. He's third in the league in win percentage behind Willing.
Starting point is 00:12:59 Anderson and Miles Garrett. Seven sacks in nine games. He's comfortably on pace for a career high. Tied for third in the league and quarterback hits. Lions are fifth in defensive DVOA. He is a key cog in one of the better defenses in the NFL on a team that is looks like it's headed for the playoffs. And my other point, this is very cynical.
Starting point is 00:13:20 And I know, I know we're calling this midseason awards, but I'm trying to look ahead to what will actually happen. I was curious to note last. Eight games of their season, the Lions play six times in a national window. So, like, that does help. Sunday night football against Philadelphia. Thanksgiving Day against Green Bay in two weeks. The week, they double up on Thursdays.
Starting point is 00:13:43 Thursday after that, they play Dallas on Thursday night football. Two, three, 30 games against the Rams and the Steelers. And they have a Christmas Day game. This dude is going to be on national TV for most of the second half of the season. So he has the numbers. He is on the caliber of team that gets voted for awards like, this and he's going to have a chance to make those type of plays in games that a lot of people are watching so i think miles garrett's the best defensive player in the NFL right now but
Starting point is 00:14:09 i would have no problem voting for him based on what he's done and what i think he might do in the second half of the season i think that it's like truly impressive gamesmanship on your part like finding out like how i'm always going to find the same angle like what is the fuck like the craziest angle that this guy could win we would all i thought that was seriously impressive we would all love for everybody to like, you know, care just as much about Kamani Vidal as they do about Derek Henry. And we would love for everybody to watch every game.
Starting point is 00:14:36 It's not realistic. And stuff like that matters when you're talking about these big time awards. And I just think between being on that caliber of team, being visible, being the best known player on the Lions defense, especially because the secondary has been a little bit banged up. Like,
Starting point is 00:14:51 he's going to have every opportunity to kind of be the face of a power team. I think he would be on the short list, any short list I would put together of who should win the award. And he's also, he's really freaking good just in case I'm only talking about, you know, television numbers. Like, he's awesome. Who is your pick? Did you just pick Miles Garrett?
Starting point is 00:15:08 It's the same thing Dave said. Like, if I'm just like picking who is the best NFL player on that side of the ball, to Miles Garrett. But I did not pick Miles Garrett. I did not pick a pass rusher. I think it's Kyle Hamilton. I love this. I'm so glad that you're doing this.
Starting point is 00:15:20 If I'm trying to make the argument. I'm always trying to like do the realistic thing. And Derek's like, no, I want the pure. This is who he thinks is the defensive player of the year. Not who should win, not if he had a vote. Who is the defensive player of the year? And I like this. Because to me, this is like who is, and we've kind of used this framing before,
Starting point is 00:15:39 who is the most load-bearing player for their team? I think it is Miles Garrett. But if we're looking past Miles Garrett, to me is Kyle Hamilton. The fact that you can move him every year, and it's a different spot every year. Because like back when he had been playing the nickel before, he wasn't as much like sitting on the edge and on the line of screen. Like he was playing the nickel as a cover player. Then they move him back to safety like last year.
Starting point is 00:16:01 Looks incredible again. He's the best player there. Now they move him back to the nickel and he's really almost like an edge player now. And he's blowing shit up every single play. Like he's just, there is not a player in the back seven like him. He is a truly one of one player. And I think he's been out of his mind since they moved him. The other part that's fun for me is all the thing you said about him playing on the edge
Starting point is 00:16:21 100% correct. He's become one of the most important pass rushers on the Ravens over the last four weeks since they moved him into the box. And now I think we're going to see this start creeping up and up and up with their current defensive personnel. They're set up to play dime on a lot of third downs. He's their dime linebacker. So he's going to be doing like six different things well
Starting point is 00:16:41 over the back half of the season for a defense that you can see it now. We're going to be sitting there on December 20th. And I'm going to be some asshole on a preview show being like, in weeks one through five, the Ravens defense was da-da-da-da-da. this situationally. In week six through 14, the Ravens are actually the best defense in the league at X, Y, and Z. And the exact thing you can draw from point A to point B is the way that they're using Kyle Hamilton. You can already see it playing out right now.
Starting point is 00:17:09 Yeah. And like there's just like, again, there are so many other players that are great, but he's changed positions effectively in the middle of the season and he's at minimum, like a top five defensive player. It's insane to me. He's a unicorn. He's the best. He's also, he won't win this award. He won't because he doesn't, because even him playing. He doesn't have the numbers. You don't have staff. And that position, it's hard.
Starting point is 00:17:29 In order to win this award as a defensive back period, but especially as a safety, you need a historic production year. Like Charles Woodson, when he won it, it's all those interceptions, all those force fumbles, all those sacks. Kyle Hamilton is just not going to have that. I mean, in part because it's really hard to do. And the other part of it is he didn't play close to the line of scrimmage for the first five games of the season.
Starting point is 00:17:50 But I love the fact that you mentioned Kyle Hamilton. I think if I was building a list of five guys right now. now. I think the two guys that you said would absolutely be on that short list, Miles Garrett, who, again, I just think is the best defense player in the world. We're at a lot of time. He is, you watch him and it's like, that's the best guy. I like, that is the best guy. I like, there's not even like a discussion about that right now. He's the best one. Michael Parsons, I think, is on the tier that Miles Garrett exists on. And I think he deserves mentioned in this. My winner, because I think that Miles Garrett had a quietish week last week.
Starting point is 00:18:22 and if you look at the entire season in total, the numbers and the fact that I think he's leveled up a little bit in a way that's interesting to me, my answer is Will Anderson Jr. today. Guys who played the Jacksonville Jaguars did not have a quiet week. No. So this is a good time to talk about it.
Starting point is 00:18:38 So I recorded a video about this today. It's going to come out a little bit later this week on the IFada football show YouTube channel. And I was telling Derek about this before we recorded it. When we look at like leaps in the NFL, I think that often we only notice the big ones. You know, when guys go from Drake May
Starting point is 00:18:55 looking like a good quarterback for a rookie to, oh man, he might be the MVP at the league, we notice those things. The ones that are subtler, sometimes we can miss them because I think we bucket guys as he's good or he's not good. We know that Will Anderson has been a good player.
Starting point is 00:19:08 We're aware of this. He is a different player now as a pass rusher than he was over the last couple years. When you watch him play, and I think maybe that's one of the reasons I felt inclined to pick him is that I had spent all of last night
Starting point is 00:19:19 just rewatching every pressure from the Texans defense this season. When you're looking at last year, Will I understand had 60 pressures and he was productive, but a lot of his production
Starting point is 00:19:27 as a pass rush over his first two seasons were a product of him being an incredible athlete, right? Like the type of player that is allotted, truly like once every four or five years defensive prospect and just plays harder
Starting point is 00:19:41 than almost anyone else you're going to see. Like is wired the right way and is incredibly talented. That is enough to be a productive NFL player and that's what he was over the first two years. And somebody on their staff told me this during,
Starting point is 00:19:51 training camp. They're like, he's put it all together now. Like the sequencing of it, the timing of it, the confidence. And when you watch him as a pass rusher now, you can feel that. So his get-off, if you look at the next-gen numbers, is like top five and has been over the last couple years. He explodes off the ball. And so obviously offensive tackles are setting for speed because they're worried about him getting the corner on that.
Starting point is 00:20:12 When they do that now, how clean and crisp and efficient his like speed to power bull rushes are and the way that he's just collapsing. the pocket, he's affecting games now in a way that he just wasn't over his first couple years and it's happening consistently. And this just isn't like a qualitative thing. It shows up in the numbers as well. So far this year, Dave mentioned it. He's number one in pass rush win rate per PFF right now, which you see that when you watch
Starting point is 00:20:39 him. Only Nick Benito has more quick quarterback pressures this year. Only Nick Benito among players with at least 200 pass rush snaps has a higher quick quarterback percentage. then you combine it with how much attention is being paid to Will Anderson. The only two guys in the NFL with more than 200 past rush snaps per next gen that have been shipped more often than Will Anderson are T.J. Watt and Miles Garrett. That's it.
Starting point is 00:21:03 And he has the quickest time to pressure, 2.51 seconds of any pass rusher in the league with more than 200 past rush snaps. You feel it. And this is like a perfect mixture of eye test anecdote and the numbers lining up. And so I think if I was voting right now, it would probably be Miles Garrett. But Will Anderson Jr. is the next guy that I would mention. Due to my fixation on narrative, it is interesting to think. What are the Texans right now?
Starting point is 00:21:28 Four and five. I think they're five and five and five. Four and five. They're four and five. Safe to say, I mean, Jacksonville is a perfect example. They gave him a shot against Denver. God help them. But like if this defense keeps the Texans relevant until C.J.
Starting point is 00:21:45 Stroud's available, if this team can. I don't want to say put it together because I don't know how much you can do with that offensive line but like if they stay relevant enough to where the offense can give them a better chance to sneak into a wild card spot or anything like that it'll be because Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter and Derek Stingley and those guys were so exceptional in this rough stretch for them so I think that is something worth keying on when you get to the last three four weeks of the season.
Starting point is 00:22:14 I just love this for him because you mentioned it like he's a player where when you hear him talk, when you heard him talk as a prospect, when he was like 21 years old, or you just watch him play, he clearly does just like have the right stuff to him. Like just... Which that's how he can,
Starting point is 00:22:28 when he came out. That's what everyone said about him. It's just like, that guy is like the best human being that's ever existed. And it's just like, for him to like, it all fully come together
Starting point is 00:22:37 where again, he was a great athlete coming in and he's always been a good run defender, but for him to now like be able to access some of the violence he had as a run defender into what he's doing as a pastur sequenced in into stuff. Like he's one of those three or four unblockable ends at this point.
Starting point is 00:22:52 Will was your preseason pick, wasn't he was? And Hutchinson was my preseason pick. So I have no idea. Mine probably was Miles Garrett. No, I think yours was Micah. Oh, yeah, well, it probably will because we probably did this right after the trade. So that makes sense. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:04 Just keeping tabs on that. Yeah, I don't know. That part of it didn't even like really get into my mind. I guess maybe the only reason that that's linked is because I like him as a player. Sure. Like maybe that's the only reason that I'm inclined to watch him because I like him as a player. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then come back with the offensive and defensive rookie of the year. All right, offensive rookie of the year.
Starting point is 00:23:30 Derek, why don't you kick this one off? Who is your offensive rookie of the year halfway through 2025? My answer is Tedaro and McMillan. I think when I enjoy this, I enjoy this. Statistically, he does not have the case that Tyler Warren is going to have or Mecca Buka, or even if you wanted to make the case for like Jackson Dart relative to rookie quarterback, he's probably not going to have the statistical case. When I watch him... He hasn't played enough games. Right.
Starting point is 00:23:54 But when I watch him play football, that's the best rookie in my mind. Like, he is just an absolute dog. And like, even, I do think he has some of the good... You're a true Hooper's purist. Yeah, I mean, I'm in Traybundon. Like, I just, I love the big guy go catch football. T. Higgins, all that stuff. But he, the volume numbers are not there, but his underlying, like, efficiency numbers are
Starting point is 00:24:13 pretty crazy. 48.1% of his targets right now go for first downs, which is the best among rookies, like he's a guy that you throw him past 10 yards and he's going to go get it. 80% of his catches go for first down, which is there are only a handful of other players in the league where that is true of and also have 50 targets. So doing it on that kind of volume, it's Roma Dunezay, Alec Pierce, George Pickens, Devonte Adams, like other Pro Bowl caliber type of receiver. So the fact that he's doing that. I don't disagree with that. I don't disagree with it.
Starting point is 00:24:42 It's just funny that we've gotten to that point. I know. And then I was actually talking to Bryce Rossler of Sports Info Solutions. and their database goes back to 2015. And there have been 289 qualifying 1,000 yard receivers since then. And Tetero and McMillan is on pace to do that. His on target rate for catchable passes,
Starting point is 00:25:01 like balls that are on where they should be and are in his range, he ranks 287th out of 289 players. He's not getting catchable passes and he is still producing like this. I really think he's incredible. When you filter it for the quarterback quality, I actually think that makes it a much more
Starting point is 00:25:18 intriguing choice. I'm not going to say, like, you know, Justin Jefferson is in the news a lot this week because of his, like, body language and his reaction to some of the stuff that was going on in the Ravens game. It wasn't that bad in the Carolina game against the Saints, but, like, you watch that back.
Starting point is 00:25:33 You can see some, like, oh, my God, in Terot-Roe Mcmillan's game, which I do not blame him for whatsoever. But he is, he's so smooth, like, to just keep the basketball thing going. Like, he just, he moves effortlessly. He never looks like he's working that hard to do things that are actually really hard. So I like that because, yeah, like the numbers statistically don't back.
Starting point is 00:25:58 He's only got two touchdowns, which like... They don't back it up, but I mean, if like you, you are thrilled with that pick if you're Carolina or a Panthers fan. Yeah, I don't have any issue with that whatsoever. I think that's actually a really good pick. And I think a lot of the reasoning backs it up very well. Who is your pick for offensive rookie of the year? Tyler Warren. And you know what?
Starting point is 00:26:17 I did the same one. The stats back it up, but I don't think I would love Tyler Warren as much as I do, if not for a bunch of stuff that doesn't show up on the stat sheet. Like, he is such a big element of everything that they're doing. I mean, for starters, they use him everywhere. Like, he's in line half the time. Obviously, he's a tight end. But they play him in the slot 30% of the time.
Starting point is 00:26:42 They move him out wide 10% of the time. He's in the backfield. I brought this up on the recap. show. Like to get that game in Berlin over the finish line, they were like, you're going to lead block all the way home, buddy. And he can do that. He's played Wildcat quarterback. He is a
Starting point is 00:26:58 crucial element of the running game. I think JT's been plenty successful without him, but I think he is a meaningful piece of why that run game is so good. Like, he is a plus blocker for being a rookie tight end. There are other tight ends before this year were not that caliber blocker. Like, he's been really good. I love
Starting point is 00:27:14 the way he blocks in space. Like, you like, you can tell a guy's a great athlete by how comfortable they look blocking in space. And then he's just got a great statistical resume catching the football. He's actually got similar yards per route run to a Mecca at Buka. It's like 2.2 versus 2.3. Similar target share.
Starting point is 00:27:32 And then he's third among all rookies and receiving yards. He only trails Teta Rua by one yard. So like he's right there with him. And he leads all tight ends in the league. He leads them all in receiving yards. So like statistically, as well as the impact that he's having, And I've said it before on this show, but just the vision the Colts had for what he would be and how perfectly it's all been executed is it's just awesome.
Starting point is 00:27:58 He's gotten a lot of like layup targets within the offense. And I think some people might construe that as like a ding against his case. I actually think that it speaks to how much they want to build the offense through him. That's who you want to get the ball to this. Give them the easy ones. The fact that there are so many of those like let's just dump him ball into the flat and let him go to work. Like those are easy completions. And I think those are like kind of simple plays.
Starting point is 00:28:22 But at the same time, like they're trying to build so much of that offense through his skill set that I don't discredit how much of that has played into his production. Because for me, like, why is that any different than like the how the Rams treat Pooka Nakuwa? Like they do so much shit like that with him. Yes. If we're mad about the level of difficulty of getting our best players the ball, I think we're losing the plot a little bit. But volume in a majority of cases is a skill. Like it is the offense is telling you that like that's who they want to have the football And like okay, it would be one thing if he was like this stiff guy who can't do anything more than three yards down the field
Starting point is 00:28:57 But that's not true like he made a spectacular catch four days and whatever that was three four days ago To move the Colts into range to win that game. So he is he is more than that even if it makes sense to give him a lot of easy targets The other guys I would throw out I think of Mackey Buka has a case just had like before the last week when he had six catches for 115 yards against the Patriots had like a quiet three-week stretch you know against the Niners he had 24 yards against the Saints he had 35 yards and so I think that by the end of the season he will absolutely be in the conversation but right now it's probably cooled off a little bit and I just don't think Jackson Dart has played enough games
Starting point is 00:29:33 like he just didn't play the first few games the year he missed a half of the bears game and so again by the end of the year if he continues playing this way I'm happy to have the Jackson Nard conversation I've said it multiple times this week on both the recap show and the hangover show that we did, I thought that his play against the bears from the pocket and as a passer was the most impressive game that he has had or most impressive couple quarters he has had so far this year. And so I was very impressed, very encouraged by that, but I just don't think he's played enough. I'll say this for you so you don't have to be the one that says it. The light clicked on a little late for Colston Loveland to be here in this conversation right now. But if it stays on the way
Starting point is 00:30:12 it has the last two or three weeks, then that is a conversation we can have in January. Quite a good football player. Yeah, he's very good. If we're just doing like the eye test rookie of the year, he's, again, we'll see over the next eight weeks, but like he's really, really good. The hands are wild. He's awesome. Like, the hands are wild.
Starting point is 00:30:27 But for me, I just keep coming back to everything that they're doing with him as a locker. And I've had faith in what that would look like coming in. Because when you watch what he was at Michigan as an inline blocker, he was not just like a glorified wide receiver. He's a willing in line blocker. The frame allows him to do a lot of work there. and so the inline blocking reps that we see from him and then you combine that with the blocking he does on the move.
Starting point is 00:30:50 Like when he's getting out on the perimeter, his ability to find guys as a blocker in space is incredibly impressive. And so what we have seen from him over the last two or three weeks is about as good as you could possibly hope for from a rookie tight end. I've seen there's a lot of discussion on draft Twitter
Starting point is 00:31:08 between like Colts and Bears fans about Warren and Dublin. I'm all set by the way. The answer is you have one. Yeah. I'm just like, they both look pretty good to me. That's fun. Yeah, not for a second. Even like, these things don't get decided halfway through a first season,
Starting point is 00:31:23 a month into a first season. So even when Tyler Warren was doing all this and Colson Loveland wasn't producing because he was banged up or whatever, there was no part of me that was like, oh man, what a fuck up by the Bears not taking Tyler Warren. And now that we're halfway through the year, I'm feeling just fine about the Colson Lovell and Tyler Warren situation. All right, let's get to defensive rookie of the year.
Starting point is 00:31:42 So here is my case about why I think overall this is just a pretty underwhelming award this year. I just don't think there are any guys to choose from. Do you know how many defensive rookies this season have played at least 50% of their team's defensive snaps? That's a good question. I didn't think about it. Half a dozen? It's 20. 20.
Starting point is 00:32:09 I undershot it. That's it. But how many of those are first rounders even? Yeah, I'm sure you don't have that on deck. I can do it for you right now. Okay. One, two, three, four, five, five. It's going to be like what, Carter, Campbell.
Starting point is 00:32:28 Malachi Stark, Jehye Campbell, Mason Graham, Michael Williams, who's hurt now. I'm going to say, Michael Williams is lost for the year. That's it. Those are the five. And so it really just is kind of an underwhelming group. The fact that there are 20 of them total, I think, says a lot. about just the overall impact of this defensive class. I just wanted to put it out for context
Starting point is 00:32:46 because I was trying to figure out why I wasn't that excited about this discussion. I think that's part of it. I would have agreed with you. And I think part of it too, and again, these awards are so narrative-driven. A lot of the best rookies play for kind of sorry teams. Like, it just isn't what it is. You know, Abdul Carter's on a two-in, whatever it is, two-and-eight Giants team.
Starting point is 00:33:04 And the Falcons rookies are, the Falcons keep losing games. McHale Williams just went down. but I was with you and then I started diving in on this topic and I actually looked at Carson Swessinger and I was like oh you know he
Starting point is 00:33:20 it sucks like he's such a good player but he sprained his ankle and he's he's hurt now or whatever and full disclosure I did not watch much of the Browns Jets game live assume me I'm sorry I didn't do it well so I went back I went back and I was like wait he played
Starting point is 00:33:36 wait he played all of the snaps wait he played all of the snaps wait he played all of the snaps and had 10 tackles, half a sack, two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits on a high ankle sprain? Holy shit. And so combine that with the fact that this guy, he's played 95% of the snaps for the Browns, which is no small feed considering how good of a defense this is. Yeah. He has 16 run stops on the year. That puts him in the top 20. He leads all rookies. It's got six tackles for loss, which is not like a crazy number, but it's top 10 among all. off-ball linebackers. He wears the green dot for the Cleveland Browns. And so it's not super exciting
Starting point is 00:34:17 because the Browns are not a team that you're rushing to turn on on a Sunday afternoon. But he rocks. And he's been doing it all year, by the way. Like over the first six, seven weeks, he would have been an easy choice for an award like this.
Starting point is 00:34:31 And then, like I said, he sprained his ankle. And I was like, oh, tough for Carson Swessinger. We're not going to see him for a month. And then they went on their buy and he came back and was like, screw that, I'm going to be everywhere.
Starting point is 00:34:42 I'm going to make Justin Fields' life a living hell. And so I think Abdul Carter is worth mentioning too. He leads all rookies and pressures. I think that's the obvious place to go. He's like top five and quick pressures too. Just like among all players, period, per next gen. The pressures that he's getting have been very impressive pressures. For me, like watching him come back and have 10 tackles,
Starting point is 00:35:04 and it was obvious that the ankle was bothering him. He didn't look as explosive as he did earlier in the year. that kind of sealed it for me where I was like all right the Browns might not be an exciting team but this guy doing this as a non-first round pick he's my defensive rookie of the year he's also mine and it was not really that close for me like Abdul Carter is great but I also think like making the case
Starting point is 00:35:24 for a defensive rookie of the year who just doesn't have the sack numbers Carter doesn't I know the pressure numbers are good and he will regress like he will probably end the year with like six sacks by the time some of that comes back but Suesinger to me is he's a really really good player man he truly does everything for a linebacker you mentioned he wears the green dot. He's already a good coverage player. Like his play like numbers to numbers, like knowing how to squeeze routes. It's not as good as like the Roquant Smith or Fred Warner's and stuff yet,
Starting point is 00:35:48 but I think he's handled himself really well on that front. Whenever he's got to play downhill against the past, I think he's done incredible just like killing stuff in the flats, making sure he's tackling checkdowns. He's been incredible. And then what's really impressed me the most is that some of that stuff you could have seen coming out of college. Like his sideline to sideline range is great. He was good in coverage. But I was worried like, he's a little like, he's a little and doesn't always hit people in college. This year, for a player of his archetype where speed is kind of his game, he actually does take on blocks really well.
Starting point is 00:36:17 I think he plays downhill really fast and he takes back space for the defense. So I think him having all that. And then he does have like a decent statistical case. Next Gen stats has tackles that are counted as stops, which are like negative offensive EPA plays for the offense. He has 43 of those tackles, which is ninth in the NFL right now. Like he's everywhere all the time. He's their green dot guy.
Starting point is 00:36:37 He's a good coverage player. He just, he truly checks every box for like a future Pro Bowl linebacker. I have no issue with this whatsoever. I think that I probably picked Abdul Carter mostly out of like as a default. Because again, he's third and quick pressures in the NFL. The sacks have not been there, but he's been. Brian Brins is stealing them all. Yeah, he's been a consistently disruptive player.
Starting point is 00:36:56 But I'm more than okay with Carson Swessinger. If Abdul Carter wins this at the end of the year, I won't be surprised and I won't have an issue with it. And yeah, like there's no way he ends the year on one sack. I appreciate you guys highlighting the fact that Carson Swasinger has been as good as he's been as like a full-time player though. And the other guy I would throw out just because he has been pretty much a starter since
Starting point is 00:37:14 day one and I think he's acquitted himself very well. Jihad Campbell has been good for the Eagles defense. He is 100% worth mentioning here. Yeah. But I think Swessinger probably deserves it if we're looking at the totality of the case. So I do not disagree with you guys. All right. Protector of the year.
Starting point is 00:37:30 There's a new one obviously. First year we're doing this. So essentially, offensive linemen of the year in the NFL. We did this with Nate last week. have like seven names that you can probably mention. But Derek, let's start with you. Who is your protector of the year halfway through the 2025 season? I'm going to start with my runner up because I really did want to make this guy the winner,
Starting point is 00:37:48 but I'm not going to do it. I really think the year Damian Lewis is having is like insane. He's not my pick. He's not my pick. I love this though. I do love that because it's just a natural tendency to gravitate toward tackles. Right. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:00 Yeah. But he's just every time I turn on offensive lines and there are some other good guards. But when I just think of like which offensive linemen is truly moving people, people the fuck out of the way. He's been awesome. It's Damien Lewis. And he's been better in pass pro this year than I think he has in most seasons. That was always my issue with him.
Starting point is 00:38:15 Exactly. He's a baller, but like he had some moments in pass protection. I have really loved watching Damien Lewis play this year. It's just really come together for him. So I just wanted to throw him out there really quickly. But I did end up going with what is probably like one of the fairly default answers in Pinesuil. Like I think he's just been incredible again.
Starting point is 00:38:30 He has the according to sports info solutions, the fifth lowest blown block rate in pass pro among tackles, eighth lowest in run blocking. And then you just see the way they consider. He's consistently weaponized him in the run game. Like he is year in, year out, one or two of the best tackles in the league. And I think this year he's been awesome again. I also picked Penn A Soel. And I had Lane Johnson last week.
Starting point is 00:38:51 Lane Johnson to me, and I said this, but we'll rehash the conversation here, he feels like the Miles Garrett of offensive lineman to me in a way. Like when you watch Lane Johnson, it's like, that's the best guy. Like in pass protection specifically, there is no one who does it like Lane Johnson. there's no one who makes it look as easy as Lane Johnson. A lot of the numbers are backed up. I mean, before last week, he had given up one quick quarterback pressure on the season. And when you watch him in past protection, there truly is like nobody like him.
Starting point is 00:39:20 And so that was my pick before last week. And then he gets her last week. He misses a good majority of that game. And I think that's enough to like open up and kind of revisit the discussion. And so that's why I'm giving it to Penesoul. Like Pennysoul has per next gen the lowest one-on-one quick quarter quarter. pressure rate allowed in the NFL. And he's probably the best run blocker in the NFL this season.
Starting point is 00:39:43 That's like that's enough. Like that combination of two things. So the fact that Lane missed most of last week, that was enough to open the door for me to give it to Penesaw. Chalker of Shockers, we're talking about Penesul and Lane Johnson in this award category. I mean, those two guys deserve mention. I think, like, Robert, you've mentioned this before. And I think it's fair.
Starting point is 00:40:04 Again, again, if we're talking about narrative, like everything, Lane Johnson has done over the last decade or so. I think we said this in the preview episode, like doing the preseason awards, Lane Johnson or Trent Williams felt like the easy, easy answer to this for like the first time we're doing this award. Lane Johnson, that would be, you know, if I were going to bet on this, that would be my runaway favorite to win the actual award. If you guys have already mentioned those two, I think, I just want to mention Andrew Thomas.
Starting point is 00:40:34 He was, of the other guys we were going to mention, he was the next one. I think you could easily give it to Andrew Thomas. I love it. And we talk about this a lot with receivers. There are so many good players. And like if you take a step back, if you get hurt or whatever, the world just moves on. And like you, you don't matter anymore. And it's been cool to see Andrew Thomas get healthy and get back into the Giants lineup and rock.
Starting point is 00:40:56 You know, like he pitched a shutout against the Broncos. He's a big part of why Jackson Dart has been successful. He's been really good in the run game too. Yeah. Like when you watch him, he's been really good in the run game. You mentioned some of the numbers for Land Johnson. it's essentially Andrew Thomas and Lane Johnson are like the guys in the same exact stratosphere
Starting point is 00:41:11 like if you look at some of the next gen pass blocking numbers Andrew Thomas has the highest time to pressure rate among any offensive tackle in the league. It's 4.24 seconds. Him and Lane are the only ones over four seconds. Like Lane Johnson, one quick pressure allowed this year by Andrew Thomas. He's been, I think maybe the best left tackle in the league when you combine the run game and the past.
Starting point is 00:41:31 I think Garibaldi. And availability. Gariboles has been really good this year in past protection. I think he's worth mentioning as well. those are probably the guys I would throw out there. Quentin Nelson is having a really good season. I think that's worth mentioning as well. I didn't think that hard about interior alignment
Starting point is 00:41:45 because it just tackles feel like they're not going to have favor. You should like I think we should acknowledge the play we've seen from some of the interior guys. I went in trying to find at least like knowing that an interior player's not going to win it. I still went in trying to find like okay if I had to pick a center or a guard like who would it be.
Starting point is 00:42:00 And so I did have like I came down to for two centers. I was like Creed Humphrey and Zach Frazier having pretty special seasons. And so they're not going to win it, but I wanted to give them their flowers. Yeah, I think Creed Humphrey is absolutely worth mentioning. But I think Andrew Thomas, to me, right now, it's like a 1A, 1B with Sewell.
Starting point is 00:42:15 Again, just because Lane Johnson missed, like, a majority of that game last week. That's enough because I think it's that close right now. I made this point on this show before I joined it, but it's all the more reason to college football this thing up and give an award for every position. Like, the NFL wants NFL honors to be a big thing anyway. It's like this big award show with a celebrity host, and then we only hand out, like,
Starting point is 00:42:36 six awards. It's like, I could help you get to like 30 if you wanted to and we could have this thing take all night. Like, why isn't there an NFL Remington trophy for the best center or best interior offensive lineman or whatever, best tackle, best linebacker? We should do it for everybody. All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back with our last four awards. Coach of the year, this is a fun one this year. I think there is a really good group of candidates. I had two that I was picking between. We can dig into it. Dave, why don't you kick us off? who is your coach of the year halfway through the 2025 season?
Starting point is 00:43:12 I wasn't really that conflicted about this. There are a lot of good candidates, but I didn't think that hard about it. You know, Shane Steichen is going to be an obvious name. Mike Vrable, Dan Campbell, changing over coordinators and the Lions not missing a beat. I don't know, Lay, who am I forgetting?
Starting point is 00:43:29 They've missed a beat. They've fired the offensive coordinator. Okay, well, that's a great point. Demone. Now Dan Campbell's a great play caller. Even more reason to it. I'm coach of the year. Mike McDonald, Sean McVeigh.
Starting point is 00:43:41 The point I'm about to make is who, if you're, it's not any of those guys, who's your pick? You want to know? My point. Shane Steichen, great. Colts have been very, very healthy.
Starting point is 00:43:54 Mike Vrable, great. Drake May is playing like an MVP. San Francisco 49ers are six and four. Brock Purdy has played in two out of ten games. I thought you had mentioned him. That's why I was confused. This is a totally reasonable choice. He has been healthy for one.
Starting point is 00:44:09 I thought I really threw you off. Brock Perry's been healthy for one game, really, because the Jags game, he was not right. Ricky Pearsall was playing 82% of their snaps. He was a starter every game for the first week of the season, averaging 80 yards per game. We haven't seen him since week four. Juan Jennings has been in and out of the lineup. He's missed two games. Brian Ayuk is still on IR.
Starting point is 00:44:28 Nick Bosa has played 18% of this team's snaps on the year. He's been gone since week three. Fred Warner, 55% of the snaps on the year so far. He's been gone since week six. Mikhail Williams, Tours ACL in week nine. Malik Mustafa started the year on Pup, didn't come back till week six. Even role players that do nice things like U2Ros Matos and Bryce Huff have missed multiple games with injury. The 49ers are ninth or, excuse me, seventh in offensive DVOA, third in offensive success rate.
Starting point is 00:45:00 Mack Jones has won more games as their starting quarterback than he did in the last two years combined. And the San Francisco 49ers have an 80% chance to make the playoffs. There are a lot of good choices for this. Who's doing more with less than Kyle Shanahan right now? I'm totally fine with this. This is good. I didn't even consider him, but this is like if you're, not really. I think right now, I think they're, to me, my choices came down to Stuyker and
Starting point is 00:45:27 McDonald's for reasons that we'll dig into it. But I think that Kyle Shanahan right now is clearly number three. And like, Rabel comes in just behind Shanahan if I were like tearing them out. Every single coach that is up for this award is like choosing between the four-seam fastball or like, do I want to go to the slurve? Or is this like, are we doing an off speed? Are you left-handed? Yeah, I am, actually. This is the first time I've noticed that.
Starting point is 00:45:51 He's like, handsome-biaming pitches with his left hand. Kyle Shanahan's just out here, like, trying to rub whatever he can off the brim of his hat and just get this thing over the plate. And he's throwing, he's not throwing a shutout, but he's throwing a great game. Like he is so handicapped by what he doesn't have. And it hasn't always been pretty, but the fact that it's not a lost cause is very, very impressive. So I think this is probably an indictment of me more than it says anything about Kyle Shanahan. I think I'm just like, unless the results are insane, just like not bored of Shanahan,
Starting point is 00:46:24 but like he does this. I don't know. But we do that too often. We do. We do. We just ignore the guys who we know are good coaches. And it's a me issue. That's fair.
Starting point is 00:46:34 and I do the same thing as well. I will also say, I don't think the general public just takes it for granted that Kyle Shanahan is a good NFL coach. I think there are a lot of people who think he's like a choker and he's overrated.
Starting point is 00:46:48 I think there are plenty of Niners fans that want him kicked out the door. I do think it's important to kind of reset and acknowledge the fact that Kyle Shanahan is a very good NFL football coach and this year is one of the best representations of that that we've ever gotten.
Starting point is 00:47:03 I hate that. it takes a situation like this to make people take note of what he does what he does because yeah like Kyle Shanahan should win coach of the year when they have you know when they look like the Avengers and they win whatever it was and they're on the cusp of winning the Super Bowl but that's not the way this award usually works and so I've said this already on the show but I think it's funny that he would finally win this award with one of his worst teams during of his of his Niners tenure. But the fact that we're not just like
Starting point is 00:47:36 giving them the Bengals treatment, like ah, what are you going to do? But you're irrelevant is amazing. The seventh that offensive do you, I think is crazy. Because they finished top 10 last year. And they were banged up for a huge chunk of last year, but at least Brock was healthy. The fact that now you have a backup quarterback.
Starting point is 00:47:52 How many teams could lose their quarterback gets hurt in week one. And I know he came back for the Jags game, but it's been since week one that they've been dealing with this. How many teams would even, we even still talking about, let alone they have an 80% chance to make the playoffs. And we don't, Pierceall's been out for however long. Kittal missed a year.
Starting point is 00:48:09 Kittal missed some time. I didn't even mention in my notes that Kittle missed five games. Like, yes, they've been, it's unbelievable. He's building the whole thing out of, uh, Kishima Kephy. Colby and Dominic Puni and Jake Janktonjus. Like the fact that he has been able to do this this year is pretty well. I will say the schedule is horrendous, right? Like they have been a very bad schedule.
Starting point is 00:48:32 that Rams win and just everything that they've done and the overall quality compared to what he is working with 100% has to be acknowledged. Who is your pick? I went with kind of what Dave was saying, kind of probably like the easiest answer. I went with Shane Steichen. I think that's a good answer. That's completely fine. So for me, I think that was partly like I gave him the coin flip because of the narrative of like he's the fact that he's doing this with Daniel Jones is kind of crazy. And I also do want to give him a play caller. It plays into this. And I want to give him some credit too for like going out hiring Lou Anirumo and the defense has been better. I think that he is my pick for a lot of those reasons.
Starting point is 00:49:07 I barely gave him the edge over Mike McDonald's. Because I do think what McDonnell is doing with that defense is really, really special. And obviously they've done a lot of other parts, him hiring Kubiak and stuff. But I ultimately still gave it to Shane Steichen. I think the Shane Steak in Mike McDonald cases, there are a ton of parallels between them, right? You have one guy who oversees his side of the ball and is the plate caller for that side of the ball. and the Colts have the best offense in the NFL by most advanced metrics. The Seahawks have one of, if not the best defenses in the NFL, according to most advanced metrics.
Starting point is 00:49:39 They are currently third in weighted defensive DVOA. They were second last week. And so by the end of the season, they're going to be in the conversation. Like it's them, the Broncos and the Texans are all kind of grouped up at the top. I think there's going to be a lot of switching around. The Seahawks have been, if not the best defense in the league, then certainly one of them so far this season. And they've been banked up.
Starting point is 00:49:57 They've got guys coming in and on in the lineup. We got second and third string DBs all over the place. You barely even notice because of what he is doing. Jones is now hurt. Yeah, yeah. The fact that like last week we're talking about Okada and whoever that backup nickel was and Tyrese Knight. I mean, that's what Mike McDonald has done with that group this year is remarkable. And I think him and Stuyken deserve a lot of credit for identifying the right guy to oversee the other side of the ball.
Starting point is 00:50:23 I went with Stuyken last week because I do think that he's just on a crazy, crazy heater. as an offensive play caller, and that should play into this. Like, if you're the head coach and you're also the play caller, the quality of what you're doing and that role matters if I'm picking this award.
Starting point is 00:50:39 It's been the last couple weeks have been a little bit shakier than up to that point. And I think McDonald has arguably been better over the last couple weeks than he's been at any point in the season. Like, they're trending all the way up. And I'll say this.
Starting point is 00:50:51 I think should this play into it, maybe not. The fact that the coordinator, Mike picked, has been overseeing a top five offense with Sam Darnold and question marks personnel-wise and this is probably just understanding the situation a little bit but I think Mike's understanding of what he wanted from his offense
Starting point is 00:51:13 and how consciously he sought that out and the results that have come along with that when you combine that with the quality of the defense and the overall success of the team that to me is like just enough to give it to him Like it's not just the fact that he picked the offensive coordinator. It's that he picked the offensive coordinator for a very specific reason because it played stylistically into what he wanted his offense to be
Starting point is 00:51:38 and that has been a top five offense. That plays into it for me. It's funny to see how that stuff changes as a season goes because like the Colts raced out to this fast start. And they haven't fallen off. Like they're still the top offense in the league. I think they'll be fine in the long run. But like the Seahawks, from like a perception standpoint,
Starting point is 00:51:58 have gained so much ground here over the last like month or so. I can't wait to see what that looks like when we get to the holidays. All right. Let's get to our next one here. Assistant Coach of the Year. Derek, why don't you kick us off? Who's your assistant coach of the year halfway through 2025? I mean, we just brought them up.
Starting point is 00:52:15 It's Clint Kubiak. Like it's kind of hard to pick someone else. I'm going to. I did have one other option that I wanted to highlight. But like when you are running a top five offense with Sam Darnold, a not very good offensive line and really only one difference making pass catcher that's a pretty insane job that they're doing.
Starting point is 00:52:34 It's pretty wild. And like we've talked about it all year and I think the first time I really noticed it and really was like, holy shit, this thing is cool as the Arizona Thursday night game. Yes, and we both said it in the moment. The play calling. And I think that there is an important,
Starting point is 00:52:48 and I could easily give it to Kinkloubiak. I did it last week. I'm partially picking somebody different just to keep myself entertained. But when you, to me, there are two different, the buckets of offensive architecture and play calling are different things, right? And so when you look at the offensive architecture for the Seahawks so far this season,
Starting point is 00:53:05 they have done a fantastic job of dictating how the game is going to go on their terms. It's phenomenal. But then the play calling and the situational choices and how everything is tied together, that's also excellent. So when you have both of those things happening in tandem, you get one of those offenses where we're all collectively sitting here being like, how are they doing this? And that's what the Seahawks feel like right now.
Starting point is 00:53:29 Which Clint Kubiak was my choice just for the record. And I didn't think all that hard about it. I'm with you. But what I love about this, and it's just like Mia Kulpa on my part is Clint Kubiak was doing this for the first month last year. And then everyone died on this. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:48 And of course, we'll never know how much the Saints would have sustained that. But like they got so beat to shit that all of the like that ground swell of Clint Kubiak talk it like bubbled up for three weeks and then just evaporated but the guy didn't forget how to do his job and so I probably I didn't I didn't pay that enough credence in the offseason and I felt better after the Seahawks drafted Gray's able and I was like okay like if you're adding that in there and like Cross and Lucas have been good when they're healthy and and Jison's a good player but I completely ignored the fact that I had similar concerns about the Saints heading into last year, and they were awesome when they were totally
Starting point is 00:54:28 healthy. And I still think it's hard to know exactly what to make of that Saints run. They were playing such a, it was really those first two games, right? And those first two games, they were playing a more specific brand of NFL offense than I can ever remember over like a two game stretch. It just literally like half of their plays were under center play action. Over those two games, Derek Harthrew like 15 non-play action passes in those two games. They played woeful teams. Like the, you know, week one against the Panthers, I think week two was against Dallas.
Starting point is 00:54:58 I get that. But I think they would have been, if not amazing, at least successful. The point, like, I should have trusted more that Clint Kubiak knew what he was doing going into this. I guess what I'm saying is you shouldn't be beating yourself up over this. I don't think other people knew what to make of that. Anybody could have hired Clint Kubiak to be their offensive coordinator this year.
Starting point is 00:55:20 Anybody. And it's not as though he was like, the slam dunk choice in Seattle. They interviewed like five or six people, and I think they ruminated on the decision. So, like, the fact that you didn't miss anything because it's not as if it was like out there in plain sight for everyone to fully comprehend.
Starting point is 00:55:36 That's kind of what I'm saying. It sure is how it looks like it right now. It sure is how it does. So I think he's easily, like, 1A, 1B. I picked him last week. I love so much stuff about what he has done this year. A couple other names that I think are worth throwing out. I think Josh McDaniels has been awesome.
Starting point is 00:55:49 I think Josh McDaniels has been so good. and just how clean and put together and sound the entire offense feels in New England, I've really enjoyed watching it in a way I didn't necessarily expect. I think Kelvin Shepard has been awesome in Detroit. Like I'm really excited. That's one of our games of the week this week,
Starting point is 00:56:07 and I'm very excited to talk about that lion's defense because we really haven't had a chance to do it in a while. The layers they've added to it this year with him as the defensive play caller. I've really enjoyed the work that he has done. They've fallen off a little bit just in terms of overall perception just because the team isn't very good. The fact that the Atlanta Falcons are second in the NFL this year in past defense DVOA with who are like,
Starting point is 00:56:31 any general NFL fan couldn't name you five players in the Falcons defense. And the fact that Jeff Oldbrick is doing this, I think is really impressive and he deserves mention here. So those are the three of the other names I'd probably throw out. My actual winner that's not Clint Kubiak is Krishua. Like what the Rams defense is doing I just find it fascinating.
Starting point is 00:56:53 Like we talked a lot about it last week. Like the ways that they are, I think Greg Olson has started to kind of beat the drum on this. And I think that this is, and I think we've alluded to it in various different forms a lot on this show this year. I think one of the next things about defensive football will be teams that don't allow offensive personnel
Starting point is 00:57:12 to define how they're going to play defense. It's actually one of the reasons I think that Mike McDonald has been so good as a defensive coach and that defense is so good. The Seahawks just play nickel to everything. It's why Nickyamonwari is so valuable, even if, like, the actual reps of him in coverage aren't always great. Like, the idea of you're not going to tell us what to do is very impressive. And the Rams are kind of like that,
Starting point is 00:57:33 but almost to, like, an entirely different level. Like, if on second and seven, they're like, we're playing our dying defense. Like, this is just what we do. And so I think that how extreme some of the ideas have been from Shula and the way that he's been able to get the most, not only out of that front, The front is talented. They're all the best versions of themselves
Starting point is 00:57:53 because the way that they're used within that defense and the fact that this is a top five-ish unit, top seven at least, with the talent that they have on the back end, I think says a lot about the quality of coaching that has gone into that group. I think that's a really good way to frame it because I don't, kind of to the point of like the Falcons thing,
Starting point is 00:58:10 like do you, I don't think a lot of people could name like a Rams DB. I mean, it's a manual Forbes. Yeah, it's like, starting outside corners. Who like, purely as like a flat player, he's actually okay. everything else is not great.
Starting point is 00:58:21 But the fact that they are doing that with that secondary right now is cool. And they do have goods players in the secondary. It's just like not stars. It's like Quentin Lake being your big like kind of a safety, kind of a linebacker, kind of a nickel guy. And then their corners are not that great and they kind of have to hide them in the coverage. But what they're able to do in terms of getting teams in the down and distances they want. And that I think is like, Shula, I don't know how much he has the decision to like sign guys. But then having the foresight of like we need to get a Puna Ford so that we can get into second and eight.
Starting point is 00:58:49 Like I think that that's pretty good And like they I think he's been impressive In that front The only other defensive guy had in mind And I know the defense is just like crazy talented Vance Joseph and the Deverebrake's defense is like They're insane That he's a victim of
Starting point is 00:59:03 Where just a lot of good players You discredit a guy It's like well yeah look at everything that he's got It doesn't mean he's not doing a job The names of the players on the team The Patrick Sertans The Nick Benito at this point Like Zach Allen a lot of people probably know
Starting point is 00:59:14 They signed Tala Noah Hufanga But I even think watching like Hufanga's growth in the defense to me is kind of impressive on Vance Joseph's part like the first month of the season Hufango was like kind of iffy and a little bit trying to find
Starting point is 00:59:27 his ground over the past five weeks I think he's been like an all pro level safety. This is a topic for a draft episode not right now but I'm really interested in the idea of teams trying to like adapt to that idea of like not shaking out of your smaller personnel and I feel like
Starting point is 00:59:43 it's way easier said than done like you got to find those guys you got to find if you don't have the right nickel you can't That's what I'm saying. That's why the Kyle Hamilton's of the world are more valuable than they've ever been. I'm fascinated by that idea and I'm curious to see how teams do it and how successfully, like I'm just imagining teams trying to do that and just not getting the right guy. It's called the Bills.
Starting point is 01:00:05 Yeah. Yeah. I feel like we're going to get a lot of like, you remember in like 2015, we were getting a lot of really bad long corners because people saw the lesion of boom. We're going to get a lot of bad like 6-3 nickels because of these things. Yeah, exactly. Like, oh, look, this guy's amazing. look, he can be our hybrid guy, and he's just not as good as some of these successful guys.
Starting point is 01:00:22 A few other defensive coordinators that I think just to acknowledge them as part of this, the fact that Patrick Graham has the Raiders defense with the talents on the Raiders defense, playing at like a top 10ish borderline top 10 level is insane. He is the NFL's McGiver. You give him anything and you'll have like the 12th best defense in the way. There are like four above average players in the Raiders defense. So I think he deserves mention here. I really like, again, what Nick Rawls is doing in Arizona.
Starting point is 01:00:47 and I think is that defense has gotten healthy in the back half of the season, we will acknowledge and be able to see what they're going to do for the final nine weeks. The last guy that I'll throw out, similar thing, now that they're healthier again,
Starting point is 01:00:58 I think he will re-enter the discussion. We'll be having some talks about Jesse Minter by the end of this year. By December 25th, by Christmas, we will be having the, where does Jesse Minter go conversations? Because I think the Chargers defense
Starting point is 01:01:13 will yet again be one of those, how are they doing these sort of groups? Two more. here. We don't have to spend a ton of time on this one. Executive of the year. What did you guys have for this? Dave? I'm really proud of myself because I've been really critical of this guy at times over the years. And maybe I will be again based on what he did at the trade deadline. But I think Chris Ballard has done a, he has been right about a lot of things heading into this year. And like if we're at the halfway point of the season, the Colts,
Starting point is 01:01:43 if they're not the best team in the league, they're at least the most surprising success story. And you can tie all of it back to correct decisions that they made during the course of this off season. I mean, Daniel Jones is their quarterback. Again, you talk about Clint Kubiak, like, nobody was dying for Daniel Jones to be in their building. The Vikings let him walk out the door. And we've talked about it on this show before. They let Will Fries and Ryan Kelly walk out the door. And on this show, we were like, is that a great idea?
Starting point is 01:02:12 Like, maybe you should care more about that. And no, they were absolutely right. Mack and Casalvas and Tanner Bordellini have been great. They shored up their secondary. They signed Charverius Warden Cambinam. They are sixth in past EPA and 14th in success rate versus the pass. It's not incredible. But last year they were 23rd and 20th in those respective categories.
Starting point is 01:02:32 Like they knew they just needed to get overall better and they did that. And also we mentioned Lou Anorumo already. And maybe Shane Steichen obviously has a hand in that as well. But like identifying, even if it's an obvious defensive coordinator to identify, going and getting a guy. Anybody could hire him. Anybody could have hired him. Exactly. Tyler Warren is my offensive rookie of the year. Well, Chris Ballard had a hand or guided that draft process.
Starting point is 01:02:56 The rest of their class isn't really doing all that much. But if Tyler Warren's the headliner, I think that's A-okay. So just half a dozen, you know, coin flip sorts of decisions and they hit on all of them. The reason I was joking at the beginning is I'm not convinced I love the sauce Gardner thing. but that is not this team's problem because you get sauce for eight more games than the playoffs
Starting point is 01:03:21 and if it turns out in the long run that that wasn't a good idea that'll be for executive of the year like 2028 like we don't have to do that right now so right now I think Chris Ballard's done
Starting point is 01:03:33 a lot of good stuff if I was making a short list he absolutely would be on it who was your answer he also would be on my which I have also been very critical of Chris Ballard for a long time
Starting point is 01:03:42 so the fact that he got there for me is pretty impressive my tongue-in-cheek answer is Mike Rable. Like, I think that, like, I think he had a lot of control over that roster. I think they've actually done a lot of it. I don't think that's an acceptable answer. It's not an acceptable answer, like, but it's like kind of my answer. My real answer is probably just like John Schneider.
Starting point is 01:03:59 And I know that a lot of the decisions that the Seahawks have made are probably reflect as equally on like Mike McDonald. Again, hiring the offensive coordinator, like drafting Nick and Warren having a plan for him, that's also probably mostly a Mike McDonald thing. But I do think a lot of the other picks and decisions they've made, doing what they did to completely overhaul the offense, I was insanely critical of that with the quarterback decision. And, you know, like, is Gray's able really going to be an immediate impact player for you?
Starting point is 01:04:23 Just like all these other stuff and like pretty much every bet they made on that side of the ball has been correct. Yeah. John Schneider is also my choice as well because I think that the decision to trade away D.K. Meckoff and now you have the best passing offense in the league. Like that part of it I always supported. Like I was in favor of the D.K. Mechaf trade. I had questions about the quarterback switch out.
Starting point is 01:04:43 I liked everything they did changing out the component parts of the offense. I had questions about the quarterback. And the fact that they've upgraded a quarterback while getting a third round pick as part of that process, I think says a lot about the quality of that plan. And here's why I'm more inclined to give it to the Seahawks than to Chris Ballard for the quarterback thing specifically.
Starting point is 01:05:03 Dan Jones is a free agent. The Seattle Seahawks have Sam Darno on a three-year $100 million deal. In a world where we have all these guys making $50, $55 million a year a quarterback. And Sam Darnold has been better than the vast majority of them. That's an incredibly valuable contract to have. That's the new edge.
Starting point is 01:05:25 I think we've talked about it on the show before. But Sam Darnold at $33 million a year when Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence and all of these guys are making 50, 55, that's a huge, huge advantage. Sam Donald has a 34, he's on 13.4 million dollar cap at this year. It's 33.4, at 33.9 next year. and we're going to talk about MVP in a second. He's in the conversation to have been the best quarterback in the NFL so far this season.
Starting point is 01:05:49 So you combine that with the shrewdness of some of the other moves. And then you look at the draft class. Obviously, Gray's Abel has been a day one starter for them, has been defined positive. Emin Wari and the way that they've been able to kind of help build their defense because they have a player like him, I think is worth mentioning. Elijah Arroyo in the second round, you've seen what he gives to this team that wants to use multiple tight ends all of the time.
Starting point is 01:06:11 even like a rabbi uts, right? You take a fullback and how that has kind of been able to reshape the way that you want to play offense. And so so many things about the decisions from the draft to free agency to the quarterback that the Seahawks made this year, I'm inclined to give it to John Schneider. You know, I think that that successfully sways me. I mean, I'm very impressed by what Chris Ballard has done,
Starting point is 01:06:32 but you have to go back and really think about what we were saying in March. And I've said it before. I like Sam Darnold. It was less about Sam Darnold, but, like, Gino Smith was a really good quarterback for them. They never had a losing record with Gino Smith as the quarterback. And to huddle up and say, like, this has been good, but we think we can be better than that.
Starting point is 01:06:55 And we think we can tap into a higher ceiling. That takes balls, man. And a longer runway, right? That was part of the argument. And anytime I tried to play doubles advocate with Derek when we were talking about this decision, the thought always was, if you're paying them the same amount and you're getting a third round pick is part of this and you're getting six or seven years younger
Starting point is 01:07:15 a quarterback like there are real benefits to this plan if it works out and oh boy has it worked out and remember too he had a wonderful season but Sam Darnal was coming off back to back stinky games like that was the lingering impression coming out of last season of Sam Darno not that many people were excited about the Sam Darno contract
Starting point is 01:07:35 way it got signed and so to move off of a relatively successful quarterback back and do all that stuff. I mean, the Seahawks caught a lot of hell for it, and they look really, really smart halfway through the year. All right. Speaking of Sam Darnold, let's get to the MVP discussion.
Starting point is 01:07:53 This is a fun one. This is like one of the more fun MVP halfway through the year type conversations I can remember just because it's such an odd group of players. And I think all of them have like legitimate cases and that's why it's fun. Let's, all right, let's, I'm just going to say, why don't we talk about the guys who didn't get it, but I don't know who you guys gave it to. So who is your MVP, Dave, halfway through the season? I hate that you're trying to start with me because I was going to do this whole bit.
Starting point is 01:08:16 Because here's how I came down. Let's just peel the curtain back. We all work closely together. I came into this assuming that we would talk a healthy bit about Drake May. You know, Derek is one of the chapter presidents of the fan club, and he has been understandably incredible. Again, I'm a sicko. Robert, I know that you voted for it. him for MVP on the show you did with Nate last week. So I came in thinking we would talk about
Starting point is 01:08:45 Drake May and that is a perfectly justifiable choice. So I sat there and I was like, all right, if I'm not going to throw out Drake May, where else can I go with this for the sake of a segment? So I started watching Matthew Stafford, obviously. I mean, that's not shocking. He's thrown 20 touchdowns and no interceptions since week three. He's just on an unbelievable tear. He's on a pace. He's on pace for 4,500 yards and 47 touchdowns. Yeah, it's like an absurd pace right now. He's playing the best football of his career, which is saying a lot,
Starting point is 01:09:17 considering all the stuff that he's done over the course of his long career. But here's the funny thing, guys. So I'm looking through it, and I'm like, and I've watched plenty of him. For my money, I just think he is, he's number one on the list of football players and quarterbacks that I just get, like, giddy to watch, you know? And I don't have to spend a lot of time explaining that. Like he does the trick shots. He throws with the most insane anticipation that you can imagine.
Starting point is 01:09:45 He is fearless. His highlight reel is more fun than pretty much anybody. But here's the kicker. So I started digging through it. And I'm like, okay, passer rating, success rate, EPA per dropback, explosive play rate, big time throws, turnover worthy plays, a dot. like all that shit you look at when you're looking at quarterbacks. Sam Darnold's better at him
Starting point is 01:10:10 at pretty much all of it? Like statistically. Yeah. Sam Darnels got better numbers at all of it. And I mean, it's not far apart. It's like third verse fourth. First, first third. First, first second.
Starting point is 01:10:23 Second and first. You know, Stafford's ahead of him in big time throws. But Darnold's ahead of him in big time throw percentage. Like how frequently you're doing it. So I was looking at it and I was like, okay, I don't know what to do here. because the guy that I want to give MVP to technically doesn't have as good of a numerical case
Starting point is 01:10:40 as Sam Darnold. And so I basically just took the coward's way out and I was like, all right, my vote will go toward whoever wins the game on Sunday. That's really funny. That's where I landed. I totally forgot that we were doing this before them, like literally playing each other.
Starting point is 01:10:57 Matthew Stafford is playing like an MVP. He's one of my favorite players in football. He would be a deserving winner. but I do, I don't think you can tout Stafford without mentioning what Sam Donald's been doing in Seattle. I think Sam Donald has been incredible on a rate basis. And I think that it's not just some of the systematic stuff that's buttressing Sam Donald's case.
Starting point is 01:11:20 There is a lot of that, right? So Sam Donald right now is 10th in the NFL in dropbacks against base defense, total dropbacks. Overall, he is 26th in the NFL and dropbacks total. He has fewer dropbacks. than Jackson Dart, Spencer Rattler, C.J. Stroud, who just missed a game. He has 16 more dropbacks than Justin Fields. He has 24 more dropbacks than Jane Daniels, who's missed how many games this year? Like half of them. So that, to me, is the argument against Sam Darnold, is that the volume and the situations in which he is throwing the ball have been so advantageous that it helps create some of the stuff that you're talking about. And here's the other very key distinction for me. between Sam Donald and Matthew Stafford. That big-time throw stuff is undeniable.
Starting point is 01:12:08 What Sam Darnal has done on throws down the field is crazy. His EPA per dropback, I don't think I wrote it down, but his numbers on just 20-plus yard throws is, it's stupid. It shouldn't exist. So here's, I think that the rate basis of how often those impressive throws are coming are higher for Sam Darnold, the numbers bear that out. To me, it's how many types of big-time throws are happening. With Sam Darnold, it's like one or two types of big-time throws.
Starting point is 01:12:36 He's had a lot of downfield lasers that have been incredible. When I watch Matthew Stafford right now, and Matthew Stafford is my pick. I picked Drake May last week. I'm doing the coinful thing for Matthew Stafford now. It's the ways that those big-time throws are happening. I said this today when I went back and I was watching Matthew Stafford. I think right now Matthew Stafford is playing quarterback in the pocket, from the pocket, as well as you can play the position.
Starting point is 01:13:00 I don't think there's anything he's doing that is missing when it comes to just from that space. He doesn't scramble in the way that some of these other guys do. And so like totally EPA, Drake May has more, Patrick Mahomes has more. Stafford is right there without scrambling, which is crazy in today's modern NFL. He is bottom five in pressure to sack rate.
Starting point is 01:13:22 He is top five in big time throw rate. The other one to me, and so this is the number that I think is the one I really wanted to throw out there. and I think it is the most indicative of like where Matthew Stafford is right now. So the overall time to throw is affected by the fact that he's using tons and tons and tons of play action, right? So I filtered it for non-play action throws. On non-play action throws this year, Matthew Stafford has a time to throw of 2.52 seconds,
Starting point is 01:13:48 which is the fourth lowest in the entire NFL. He is fifth in air yards per attempt on non-play action throws. It's almost impossible to play quarterback this way. And the only way that you can do it is by playing with just an absurd combination of aggressiveness and anticipation. When you watch Matthew Stafford right now, some of the cornerouts that he's throwing, some of like the deep daggers and inbreakers that he's throwing, when he is choosing to make these throws, they're impossible to defend. Like there's nothing you can do about it as a defense. Any single space on the field, even in pure dropback concepts, are available to Matthew Stafford at every single moment of the game. and that to me is what is separating him
Starting point is 01:14:30 from all of the other quarterbacks that we're seeing. It's just the accessibility to anything. The offense is as good and as varied and as diverse as it is because Matthew Stafford can access anything you want him to do from the pocket in a way that very few quarterbacks have ever been able to do it. This is purely anecdotal and not a satisfying argument if you're trying to lay out somebody's case, but just watching him, it feels like about as well as like anybody,
Starting point is 01:14:57 he's played quarterback. That I personally have watched. And like that includes some of Rogers' best years, whoever you want to throw out there. Like it's just so impressive to watch. The fact that he is doing it with the limitation of being a like almost 40 year old man who has never really been like a super scrambler athlete, the fact that he like cannot move and is the best pure thrower in the NFL.
Starting point is 01:15:20 Like we talk a lot about like, oh, does this guy have every club in his bag? This is the most I've ever seen a quarterback. Like truly has every club. in the bag. The comparison I made today, and I brought this up to Derek, the season that this most reminds me of is watching Brady in 21, where it's the combination of downfield throws and just getting rid of the ball instantaneously. And I think why that comparison is sort of illustrated to me is that very, very, very rarely do you get a guy who has seen this much football and is 37, 38 years old and still has this level of physical talent? And Brady to me is the other best example of that. And so
Starting point is 01:15:56 when I watch Stafford right now, that's the only comparison that can come to mind is that one specific Brady season. And I think that's the level of quarterback play that we are talking about right now. It really is, which is surprisingly why he is actually my pick over Drake May. I really think this. I know, I know. I would have spent two hours doing Drake May shit if I had not missed. Listen, I'll talk about Drake May in a minute.
Starting point is 01:16:18 And I think he's obviously having a phenomenal season. I picked Drake May last week. Part of the reason I picked Maddie Stafford is just to do something different and not pick Drake May again. He will have his moments in this league. That's the other reason. I have no. There is something about the year that Matthew Stafford is having that, like,
Starting point is 01:16:34 I think this is a cool celebration of all that he's done. I won 100% of my word with this. We're not going to cheapen what Matthew Stafford's doing by calling it a legacy award. It's a high breaker. To me, if you go either way, like, this nudges it one direction for me. That's why I have. This is like Scorsese finally winning best picture for the department, which is like he is just playing.
Starting point is 01:16:56 better football than Drake May. I think that the reason that comparison is unfair is that the Departed is not the best Scorsese movie. This is the best Matthew Staff. That is a good point. That is a good point. And even if we want to look at some of the efficiency number, EPA per dropback, they're actually the same.
Starting point is 01:17:12 They both have point two to EPA per dropback, which is kind of funny. Stafford is second only to Darnold in DVOA, which accounts a little bit for like opponent that you're playing. And May is sick, which is obviously still insane again for a second year player. And I think May, him having me, a scrambling element that Matthew Stafford doesn't. Him, I think, having some more answers against the Blitz that, unless the ball is out immediately, maybe Matthew Stafford.
Starting point is 01:17:33 I do think all of that is incredibly valuable. And obviously, the Patriots are a worst team. So you can make the argument that he's like a load-bearing player. But I really do think that, like, what they can access the Rams as an offense is like he's really the only quarterback in the league probably right now who can do all the what he's doing. That's why it's incredible. That's what happens for me. Like, if the total value because of what May gives you as a scrambler, obviously like the number,
Starting point is 01:17:53 Drake May still leads the NFL in total EPA. Like he has been arguably as valuable as any player in the league. That's why I think he probably is like the one B decision. But it just comes back to me where I think Matthew Stafford is playing the position as well as you can possibly play the position. You know what's crazy? Matthew Stafford's been one of my favorite players forever. And like I would love nothing more than to see him win an NFL MVP before he rides off. But what's funny is like, and like, you know, I think that color is the way I look at it.
Starting point is 01:18:25 But if I'm just boiling this down, even if Matthew Stafford's playing better, I kind of think Drake May is more deserving for some of the stuff that y'all are talking about. Like the Patriots are 20, I got to scroll a long way, 29th in defensive DVO. And their running game's been bad. And so what they ask of Drake May within the offense, I think he is asked to do more for that offense than after Stanford, arguably. Considering supporting cast, considering that Devante Adams is going to Canton and Pooka Nakuwa looks like he could be. and considering like the defenses and stuff,
Starting point is 01:18:58 I think Drake May is unquestionably doing more for the overall team, even if Matthew Stafford is playing at a level that I've rarely seen in my career. I don't even know if I disagree with that, but part of the argument I would make too is like, in my mind, the Rams are the best team in football. And that is made true in part because of the way that Stafford is playing. And like the, like there is a,
Starting point is 01:19:24 he does, he's not. making bad plays. Like, Stafford has usually had moments where, like, he makes some bad plays. That's the other good guy. He is not f***ing up. Like, he is on an unbelievable heater right now. I 100% agree with that. One guy's been playing in the NFL since 2009 and the other guys in year two of his career.
Starting point is 01:19:41 But that shouldn't matter. It shouldn't matter, but I think it explains why one guy never f***es up and the other one made it does. Well, Stavord used to do that. And even last year, like, Stafford was good last year, but he was not. This is the best he's played. This is the best that he's ever played. There were moments last year when he was,
Starting point is 01:20:00 and I think part of this is because the past protection has been much better this year. Yes. But it has to be for the way that he is. He's also getting rid of all quicker. But he has been pressured one of the lowest rates in the NFL. That's been part of this. But Drake May, the sacks that Drake May has taken, Drake May still takes a lot of sacks.
Starting point is 01:20:13 There are still more negative plays than you'd want overall. He offsets that by all the scrambling that he does. If you wanted to give this to Drake May, I'm totally fine with that. I just think that after going back and thinking about it and watching Matthew Stafford. And the fact that Drake May hasn't had his two best games in the last two weeks, to me, if it's a coin flip right now, I'm happy to get to Stafford.
Starting point is 01:20:32 It would bum me out if Stafford were to win this award mainly because of his status and where he is in his career. But he wouldn't. He's 4,500 yards and 47 touchdowns. You got to let me finish, man. Like, he is playing that well that we're not just doing him a favor. That's what I'm saying is, yeah, he is absolutely, he would be deserving of MVP if he were to win this. And yeah, that's why I chose him.
Starting point is 01:20:56 But weirdly, I think Drake May might be doing more for the Patriots, even if he's not playing just as purely good football as Matthew Stafford is. I think the way that I look at it is, if Drake May was not the quarterback for the Patriots, they would be a bad offense, right? Like, they would not be a good offense. If Jimmy Garapolo is playing for the Rams, they would still be probably a good NFL offense, like an above average offense. But the level that they can reach because Matthew Stafford,
Starting point is 01:21:24 is the quarterback is just in a completely different conversation than whatever they would be able to do with Jimmy or any sort of replacement quarterback. Is there anybody besides these three that we're not talking about? I had one that I considered, but the statistical case is impossible, which is Justin Herbert. I think Herbert is like playing at the level of an MVP is just like he's being grieved by his team constantly.
Starting point is 01:21:46 I think that you can make a very similar argument for Justin Herbert to what we're talking about with Drake May. When it comes to like if without him, like this would be an unawful, They would be like a two-win team without the way that he's playing. The fact that Justin Herbert right now has a positive EPA per dropback and like a above-average success rate as a quarterback in the NFL, given the current state of the past protection on that team is truly bonkers. So if we're talking about the most valuable player to his team, I think Justin Herbert is probably in the conversation. Winning the most valuable player award in the NFL, it's is not starter based on the production.
Starting point is 01:22:18 Oh, and I would just throw out there too. He played one of the worst games ever and then went on his by week. Patrick Mahomes is still hanging around. Yeah. You'll be there by the end. There's a reason that Mahomes and Josh Allen are both in the top three or four when it comes to betting odds. By the end of the season, this might be a different conversation. But right now, I think it's probably between Stafford and Drake May to me.
Starting point is 01:22:37 I think Drake May last week. I'll be happy to make the case from Matthew Stafford this week. Yeah, I feel good about that. Although, I mean, Donald's case was a lot stronger than I thought it was when I started doing this. When you look at the rate stats, they're extremely impressive. He mentioned it to me on maybe the hangover, like two weeks ago. talking about Sam Darnold, he was like flirting with the MVP case. And I was like, when he first said it, I was like, that sounds ridiculous.
Starting point is 01:23:00 And then I was trying to think in the moment, I was like, how many players would I really put over Sam Darnold? And it's probably not more than like three or four. I also think it's partially, it's not just the numbers. Like when you watch how he's playing the position right now, the offense does some lifting. It doesn't do enough to discount the way that he has played so far this year. He's playing really, really, really well. All right.
Starting point is 01:23:18 All right. The Drake May, Sam Dernold, MVP conversation we were all expecting to have back in August when we did our preseason awards. That is all we've got for today. If you have not checked out this week's edition of Building the Beast with Dave and Dane Bruegler, highly encourage you guys to do that. Dane's top 50, his new top 50, just got released.
Starting point is 01:23:38 They dug into that this week, so go check that out. We will be back on Friday with a fucking doozy of a preview show. We got Ram Seahawks. We got a bunch of different stuff to hit. Very much looking forward to that one. So I encourage you guys to check that out. For now, that's all.
Starting point is 01:23:54 we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you soon.

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