The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2025 NFL season predictions

Episode Date: September 3, 2025

We've previewed every division. We've pondered every lingering question. We've analyzed every roster from top to bottom and back to the top, again. There's only one thing left to do. Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman offer up their awards, playoffs and Super Bowl predictions on this final preseason episode of The Athletic Football Show.Rundown (timestamps are approximate)4:35 Defensive Player of the Year15:18 Offensive Player of the Year23:09 Coach of the Year36:40 Offensive Rookie of the Year44:35 Defensive Rookie of the Year48:49 Assistant Coach of the Year55:03 Protector of the Year58:47 MVP1:07:07 NFC Playoff Picks1:16:25 AFC Playoff Picks1:21:46 Super Bowl picksHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It is officially predictions time. We are two days away from the NFL season. We're recording this on Tuesday. Me, Dave Hellman, Derek Classen, predicting, I don't know, all the stuff that you can probably bet on. Who's winning all these awards? MVP, defensive player of the year, offensive defensive rookie of the year,

coach of the year, coach of the year. We picked Protector of the Year because that's the thing that I'm very excited about for 2025. And then we pick the playoff teams. Who we think is going to win each division? who our three wildcard teams are in each conference. And we pick the Super Bowl, just the teams we think are going to be playing in it. And the team we think is going to win it.

So that's what we've got on tap for you guys today. Let's get to it right now. It's about that time. A couple days from the kickoff of the NFL season. We're recording this on Tuesday, September 2nd. You guys are hopefully listening to it on Wednesday, September 3rd. The NFL season kicks off tomorrow. Eagles, Cowboys, Thursday night.

David's predictions time. It's our favorite time of the year. You got to put your name on some stuff that people are going to give you shit about for the next six months. It's like one last little bit of dread. Like I'm so excited to just throw all the preseason stuff out the window and watch some football.

But yeah, we got to do this uncomfortable thing where, yeah, I didn't sleep that great last night because I was like tomorrow I have to say a bunch of shit that people are going to hate me for and it's going to age terribly. But it's a right of passage. Derek, I feel like there's one of two ways you can go with this. as you've done it as long as I have. You can get more irreverent in the picks that you make for stuff like this.

You can care less or and just be like, yeah, you know, it is how it is. Or you can be like how I was this year and have conviction on none of these. So I'm like, I have zero conviction on any of my picks. I'm a little bit splitting the difference because we're going to do playoffs and then we're also going to do all the awards. The awards I want to get right. Those ones I thought about. I'm like, okay, these are just, I'm picking the players where I think this is truly

how I think the season is going to go. The playoffs, I was a little bit. bit more like, I'm just going to cause some problems on purpose. With the awards, I truly have less of a feel this year than I feel like I've ever had when it comes to picking players. It feels like a very tough year. We'll talk about this as we get into some of them, but even like assistant coach of the year, which is typically I come in being like, oh, I have a pretty good idea of like which unit will be shaped by someone and he'll be a driving narrative of the season. Like, I think I did pick Ben Johnson last year. He did win in last year.

This year I was like, I don't know. MVP is so weird. because you had Lamar probably should have won it last year based on the season that he had. I have no problem with Josh Allen winning it. And people are going to be pissed off about that. A guy winning first team all pro at a position and the not winning MVP is, I think, unprecedented. So it was a weird year. And I think those weird narratives will play into how this season goes.

And I'm like, all right, maybe there's a third guy. You mentioned Joe Burroughs name last week. That's like, all right, maybe this is his year. But then you think about the necessary components to win MVP and the fact that you essentially need to be the number one seed. and are the Bengals going to be good enough to do that? So there are just so many layers to picking these awards this year that I felt like were impediments to clear choices.

So we haven't even started the show and I'm just hedging already. As long as the process is good. Like I think if you followed the league for any amount of time, you know that half the stuff we say in July and August is going to look silly before the season's even halfway over. Correct. And so like getting it right isn't, I mean, it would be nice. Getting it right is not really my goal.

It's just like the process where you landed on some of this stuff. Like did it make sense? Could you defend your opinions? Are you doing things willy-nilly? Are you following the right trends? All that good type of stuff. So I care more about the process than the results because really, and like even when you get some of this stuff right, you know how lucky you have to be to nail a prediction like this? Like even if you get it right, it's more blind squirrel finding a nut than anything.

Let's get to it. We're going to start with the awards today. And then we're going to get into our division. vision winners, playoff team, Super Bowl picks, all of that a little bit later in the show. We'll end this with MVP. It's typically how we've done it. I've always joked that it's kind of like the Oscars. Like, we'll do one

at the beginning that matters, and then we'll get into some of the more technical awards in the middle, and then we'll come back with Best Picture at the end. So let's start with defensive player of the year. That's the toughest one. This is actually the one I felt the best about. I don't know how I'll get it right, but

based on the preseason and based on the options, I was like, I feel good about the person I'm going to put in here. It's not the guy with the best odds. It's not the clear favorite. It's just like my vision of the season, this is the one where it's like, all right, I'm going to let this one fly and feel okay. I don't feel that way about any of the awards then picking, any of the other ones.

Really? That's interesting because I struggled with the POI a lot just when you look at who traditionally wins it, where those guys are in the league. Because I think you all talked about this on the show last year. And I know Patrick Sartan won it last year, but by and large, you can kind of kind of count on a defensive end or an edge rusher to win this award. Look at it. And like there's a good reason why a lot of the prominent edge rushers in the league are not

in a good spot because you typically also need to be on a really good team. I went back and looked since the year 2000, only four players who played on a team that didn't reach the postseason have one defensive player of the year. You need to make the playoffs at the very least. You got to be the one seat or anything, but you got it. You typically need to make the playoffs. I'm wondering if there's how much of this is true or this is just anecdotal. It also feels like you need to be on like one of those defenses that year.

You have to be on one of the best one or two defenses in the league. Your defense as a unit has to be like a driving narrative force behind how that NFL season goes. That's why it's hard to ever pick like Max Crosby. Like Max Crosby is of the caliber of a player who can win the award. But when you're playing on that defense, like what is, even if he gets 14, 15 sacks in the season, like he's probably just never going to be up for it. I think that's fair. That's why that's how I feel about a lot of the guys. this year. Love Max Crosby. How great do you feel about the Raiders having that type of impact?

T.J. Watt, I mean, the Steelers made the playoffs last year. I'm not saying it's impossible, but we did a whole show about the drama and implosion potential of the Steelers. Miles Garrett is on a team, a Cleveland team that not many people think very highly of. It would be easy to just say, oh, well, Micah Parsons, Micah Parsons didn't have a training camp. That's awfully concerning to me. You could say the same thing about Trey Hendrickson. So of the prime time star edge rushers, there's a lot working against them. And it makes me very curious about who might emerge. It's funny because we've said this a bunch over the last month or so, Derek, this idea of this team has as good a chance as any to be the best team in the league. The three guys I would

pick on this list, none of whom you have mentioned so far, all play for defenses that were in that list for us. I think this defense is a chance to be the best defense in the league. So I understand a lot of the big name guys have issues. Most of the guys I was picking from, I feel pretty good about all the circumstantial stuff that could line up for them. So why don't I just throw mine out first? I've been going through that whole song and dance.

I've alluded to this a little bit on other shows. I think I know. I think I do too. I'm picking Will Anderson, Jim. Yeah. I love it, man. Like, he is just, he is a special, special player.

I think this is the year where it can kind of all come together for him. You know, we're talking to people there in training camp and just about his evolution as a player over the last. couple years. You know, first year, I think you're just getting your feet wet. It's like pure speed to power guy all the time. Run defense is where he really shows up. And the same way people thought he might as a prospect. Last year, I think that, you know, the idea of being able to bully people, but then just using your hands late and shedding people and kind of getting some more hustle sacks becomes part of it. And this year, and talking to defensive coaches in Houston, I think that,

one, I've said this when I was there at practice. He looks insane. Like just everyone else in a while, you're going to find these guys who just look like they're different sort of species than you are in the NFL. Miles Garrett has always been like that. Aaron Donald has always been like that when you see them in person. What Will Anderson looks like now physically just looks wild? And then hearing just some of the work that he had done this offseason when it comes to truly adding to the toolbox for himself as a past rusher. That to me felt like the final level. And it really does sound like that refinement has come along at the right pace.

And so I just feel like that's all coming together at the right time. and I think the Texans specifically have a chance to be one of those defenses this year that could be the best defense in the league or one of the best couple. And so that's enough collectively combined with we like to give it to guys who've never had it before. The narrative kind of can pick up steam on its own. So that's why enough of this stuff lined up where I felt okay about him being the pick. I love that pick.

And I thought about that as well. And the one thing that held me off was just that if everything goes the way you want it to for the Texans, he could at least be sharing some spotlight and some credit with DeNeal Hunter. Which is what happened last year. And Derek Stigwin. It's in picks this year or something crazy like that. So I totally understand that. I just,

I think he might emerge as like the guy from that defense by the end of this season. I think like that was my initial pick. And then I went with the most boring pick that I think you can make at this point, which is once Michael Parsons got traded. Like that was my pick. And a lot of it too is like these awards are narrative things. And if the Packers defense takes that jump because we spent the entire offseason, everybody's saying, oh, they don't have a star player.

They can't rest of the past of the way that they want to. If he generates that for them and he gets 14, 15 sacks, which I think even without a training camp, like he is one of the handful of players that, like, he can probably do that anyway. And so if he accomplishes that and the Packers have, I don't know, the eighth best defense and they win 13, 14 games, like he's, he would absolutely be on the short list for it. If there's a guy who could miss six weeks of practice and still be just fine, Micah Parsons is on that list. I'm not worried at all about the story coming out about his back sprain that that hit the news

in the last couple of days. I don't think that's going to slow him down at all. I don't think that's a bad pick. I just when you miss six weeks, I just, I don't want to jump into it with my full chest. I'm just doing too much Packers stuff. So like, I was just kind of leaning into this.

This is actually really funny because I had a guy and I thought it was who Robert was going to pick. And I was like, all right, well, in the interest of introducing as many names as possible, let me just leave this guy off to the side. So I wasn't going to use him and I had a whole different name queued up. By hearing Robert say Will Anderson, I feel even better about saying Aidan Hutchinson.

That was the other guy I was going to say. And again, narratively, it works so well because we all think that the Lions defense could be really special this year if everything goes the way they wanted to. Even if they take a step back, playoffs, I don't think it's more spoiling anything by saying, we think the Lions are in the playoff mix for sure. and Aiden Hutchinson isn't dealing with as much of what Will Anderson is, which is to say if he's great, like he's going to be the center of that defense. He's going to be the star of the show. Obviously, they have some good players elsewhere, but he is the name on the lion's defense.

And if he plays remotely like he was playing before he got hurt, and that's, you got to worry about that. He's coming off of the major leg injury. But if he looks anything like that guy, he will be the face of a defense on an NFC power. So I feel great saying Aidan Hutchinson. Everything I said about William Anderson when it comes to being the best player on what we think might be the best defense in the league can be also true for Aiden Hutchinson. Yes. And if you look at the terror he was on to start last season, I have no issues of that whatsoever. He also is the second best odds to win the award after Michael Parsons.

He's currently plus 700 at Bette MGM. So it's not like this is a surprise to people. Aidan Hutchinson and Will Anderson were probably the two guys that I had circled as we were making the final short list here. I thought about throwing Jared verse out there as well. I think that's a fair one. Again, to me, it's about how high is the ceiling for the Rams defense overall. How good can the defense actually be? But I think that's probably one of the other names I would throw out.

And then so for each of these, you guys have a long shot for each of these. I do. So I wanted to do, we've done this in the past. I think it's just a fun way to kind of throw more names into the mix. But we're each going to pick like a long shot or semi long shot that we like the odds for. The one I'm going to pick, I think a lot of the same stuff lines up for this guy to the other three young pass rushers we just mentioned. Jalen Carter is 20 to one. Yeah.

That is kind of crazy. That is for a player that everyone already loves, that is like kind of crazy. It's tough as an interior pass rusher. You know Donald did it all the time, but he's Aaron Dyson. The numbers you need to get there, I think it's a tough bar to clear. But if Jalen Carter gets like 14 sacks and the Eagles are the best defense in the league. And again, the Eagles defense is like a driving force narratively for the NFL. And we all kind of collectively come to a place where like, all right, Jalen Carter was a really, really good player last year.

Now he's one of the best players in the league. you can feel the momentum start to build where he's somebody that we would mention with us. That's a good one. I actually also had an interior player. Mine for me was, again, defense that I think might be the best in the league. Like if the Seahawks defense is as good as I think it is,

and Leonard Williams plays the way that he did for like the last eight pieces of the year. I mean, he was on a tear, dude. He played awesome. Like he was a phenomenal. To one to win defense player. I mean, when I say long shot, like it is extreme long shot. That is a true long shot. Yeah, I consider Jared versus my long shot.

Yeah. He's like still top 10 in odds. Leonard Williams is not going to win it, but it's just in my mind, if the Seahawks defense is that good, it's because Leonard Williams put up like 12 sacks and was one of the best run defenders in the league. So why don't we do this? I'll throw out one more name, just everything else we've talked about before. You mentioned this. If the Texan's defense is really, really good and we start throwing out multiple guys from the Texans defense,

why couldn't Danielle Hector have 20 sacks? Yeah, he could. He absolutely could. He's 80 to 1. He had the best pressure rate in the league last year. Like, he could absolutely do it. That's the complication with him and Anderson. right? Is this just like, yeah. So here, listen, I'm about to, I love the player I'm about to say.

Brian Branch has 80 to one odds to win defense player at the year. DeNeil Hunter and Brian Branch should not have the same odds to win defensive player. That is crazy. I remember saying this last year, you realize DeNeil Hunter is going to hit 100 career sacks this year. He's on 99 and a half. Like he's going to get there. Even if he has a bad year, he's going to get there. And I don't think anybody talks about DeNeil Hunter as a guy with 100 career sacks. Like, he's just been doing it for he's an extraordinarily underrated player. for what he's done. He's 30, right?

Yeah. And so, and he had 12 sacks last year. So let's just say hypothetically, DeNeil Hunter has three more seasons of a dozen sacks. And he ends his career with 135 sacks. And he's like a second team all pro once or twice. He's been second team all pro one time. Yeah, I mean, yeah, he's still got time to play, obviously.

But I'm just saying it's, yeah, then we're in a point where, and this is the most important thing, but let's say he makes two pro bows over that span. Then we're at a point where he's made seven Pro Bowls in a 10-year period with 135 career sacks and like maybe a couple more second or 13 all pros. Just worth throwing out there. It changes the conversation about what his career is. I feel like DeNeil Hunter is one of those guys who when he retires, he's going to like Adam Schefter's going to send out the tweet that's like, Daniel Hunter will be eligible for the Hall of Fame in this year.

And a lot of people are going to be like, Neil Hunter's not a Hall of Fame. That's what I'm, that's what I'm. And then they're going to look at his resume and be like, holy shit, Daniel Hunter might be. Hall of favor. It'll be a worthwhile conversation by the time we get there. It's an offensive player of the year. You guys can start with this. I have the most boring choice imaginable. Derek, where are you going with offensive player of the year in 2025? Mine is also exceptionally boring. I actually originally went in with a conflict of like I had too many players from the offense. I wanted to give him an award. So I'm actually just going to go with Jamar Chase.

That's what I did. Yeah, to me, it's just like he's, we all know the Bengals are going to throw 5,000 times. And so long as Chase plays 17 games, he might win the triple. crown again like he just there's no reason for me like he probably deserved the award last year if we didn't have two insane seasons from running backs the way that we did i think that's right to march jays finished with 17 hundred yards and 17 touchdowns last season and we just don't even really talk because he just does that and we had the seasons that we did from the running backs and so i just feel like so many reasons we talked about this dave like the health concerns with say qual what that workload means even if he's healthy yeah do we just lay a slight down ticket

production. And if we do, I just feel like there's not a lot of reasons to believe that Bengals offense collectively is going to be much less productive than it was last year. So even if he doesn't have the season he had last year, even if Jamar Chase has 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns on 120 catches, that still is a season where you could easily win offensive player of the year. It's funny how I believe in the Bengals as a playoff contender. I think they're going to look exactly as good as they did last year. But it's still hard for me to get on board with having the best receiver, having the best season in the league two years in a row, which is what you'd be asking Jamar Chase to do. Man, I think he can do it. I'm not saying he can't do it. I'm saying I'm nervous

about predicting him to do it. Part of the reason I think it's okay. But who's okay. Do you want my answer? Because my answer is really boring, too. If it runs in conflicts with him with Chase winning it, then it doesn't. But the thing that I think about is there's a guy who had an insane year last year. who somehow feels overlooked. And offensive player of the year was the easiest award for me to pick among all of these. Because I think I just feel so confident that Derek Henry is going to do what he did again. So that was my conflict. He's going to do it again.

He does it every freaking year. He, the Ravens offense is the same slash better. The offensive line should be better. The quarterback is an MVP. Derek Henry has never shown signs of slowing down one time in his career. The Ravens are, unless somebody gets hurt, they're going to win 11 games. maybe as many as 14 or 15 games. He's going to have another 2,000 yard season.

And the thing, again, I tried to think about narrative with all of this as much as I could. By the end of last year, Derek Henry's 2100 yard season, all purpose, felt like an afterthought. Like that's how much airspace, Seyquin Barclay was taking up. And rightfully so. I'm not taking that credit away from Seekwon. But Derek Henry had an equally incredible year and didn't get rewarded for it. And so if they come close to replicating what they did last year, which I think they will, I think, like, if I was really betting money on somebody to win one of these awards, I think Derek Henry's damn near a lot to do it. I love that because I really did it. He was, Derek Henry was my initial pick. And then I ended up kind of switching to chase.

But Henry is like for the same reason it's like, I've truly gotten to the point with Derek Henry where I'm not betting that he's going to slow down until it happens. Like until he is not playing the sport anymore, I'm going to bet that he can run for like 16. hundred yards. And I guess, especially on this team. The other thing, too, is there's less variables for me to worry about. Like, the Ravens are going to run the freaking ball. It's the same ensemble and they're going to run a million times. The Bengals, I mean, Chase could have, he could get less targets because T. Higgins gets more targets.

We, I think the Bengals run game is going to be better this year. I think Chase Brown could eat into some of that. So Jamar Chase could have an all pro caliber year and just not quite scratch 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns because that is an incredible stat line. And so that's just where I get nervous. Not that Jamar Chase is going to quote unquote drop off, but like that is such a dizzying high for me to think that he can do again. I really like the Derek Henry did not get rewarded for the season he had last year and he had an insane all the time season. That's actually a good precursor to picking him to win the award. Who is your long shot, Derek?

Long shot to win offensive player of the year this year. I mean, I'm going to keep leaning into the bit I've done for two years now. But like Drake London at plus 5,000. I also like Drake London is 50 to 1. With as many times as they're probably going to throw to him. Like in, I'm like a little bit iffy on how good the Falcons are actually going to be. But like in the world where they win 11, 12 games, to me it's because Drake London catches like 1,700 yards and is just an absolute demon in the red zone. So I was looking at numbers right now.

And so two anecdotal things. One, I had my like big fantasy football auction two weekends ago. A bunch of players are kept. So there's some caveats to this. But the one player, big money. player, I was like, I'm leaving this auction with this guy this year was Drake London. Because I truly believe that Drake London, based on the circumstances in Atlanta, could have like a monster, monster season.

In the back half of last year, only Puka Nakua had more targets per route run than Drake London. He was at 33%, which was second in the NFL among all receivers with at least 50 targets over that span. He finished in the top five in yards per route run over that stretch despite the volume. All the other players that were up in that level when it comes to targets per route run. Puka, C.D. Lamb, Mike Evans, Devante Adams, and then league neighbors, Brian Thomas, Nico Collins, the next three. But all those guys in the top five that were like, bumping up against 30%. Puka now has Devonthe Adams on his team. C.D. now has George Pickens on his team. Mike Evans is a new

offensive coordinator. Devante Adams is on a different team. I just think that Drake London, all of the environmental stuff is lining up for him to have a similar sort of focal point role that he did for the Falcons last year when there's questions about some of all these other guys. If you told me at the end of the season that Drake London was like that led the league in targets, led the league in receiving yards, I don't think that's like a crazy place to go. And so for him to be 50 to 1, that was an easy, easy pick for me as a long shot. Yeah. I think a really interesting one that's also plus five or no, excuse me, plus 6,000.

I think we talked about this earlier in the summer. and I'm not saying he's as good as those guys, but Josh Jacobs has every chance to have those sorts of numbers. And I think the Packers will probably pass the ball a little bit more this year, but you're still talking about a guy who could run for 15,600 yards and 15 plus touchdowns. And if the Packers do have that nuclear season where they're the one seed or even the two seed, that's just an easy guy to give the award to if he's kind of the face of their offensive production.

And plus six, like that, those are such. good odds for a star running back on a team that most people view as a contender. Like I would have thought that just the Packers visibility would make those odds less. Like if I'm seeing those numbers, maybe I'll go. I mean, I'm like the biggest Packers is optimist right now. But like if I had to pick a rushing leader that was like not Derek Henry or if Sequon can get through the season, it would probably have been Josh Jacobs. So like at that money, that's actually pretty like he's not talked about like he's part of that group, which like he's not as special as those guys. but he can put up numbers like those guys.

And I've done it on multiple occasions. This is kind of the issue almost with Drake London, too. They don't have as many of the flashy explosive plays as the Jamar Chases, the Derek Henry's, the Sequin Barclays, but like production-wise, they can get to about the same level. Let's get to you, Coach of the Year as our next one here. This one is really hard for me this year. Because most of the time, and we've, this is the narrative around this award every single year.

most of the time the people that win coach of the year, it is the, did your team win more games than they should have award? The guys who fall into that bucket this year are just teams where I'm like, I don't know. I'm not sure if I'm necessarily buying this. When you look at the odds,

the best odds are Ben Johnson at plus at 7 to 1, Mike variable at 8.5 to 1, Liam Cohen at 12 to 1, Kellen Moore at 12 to 1, which is I cannot support that. Even as the Saints guy, that is preposterous to me. Pete Carroll is 12 to 1.

Sean Payton is 14 to 1. one that all, I get all of those actually like Sean Payton as like a potential option there. But the ones that are, oh, this team is clearly going to overachieve this year. The fact that the bears have the best odds of being that, I think I just would never be able to pick it. So a lot of the guys that typically fall into the bucket of who normally wins coach of the year, I just am not sure I'm buying any of those narratives. And so that for this year specifically made it kind of hard to land on a choice that I felt

good about. Same. Like it's either ends up being those guys or like. Once every three or four years, it's just like this team won 15 games. Yes. Like the 2019 Ravens, John Harbaugh won it. And it's like we all already knew that John Harbaugh was a really good coach. But when you win 14 games with a new quarterback, it's like, okay, well, that kind of starts

to change about how we think about it. And I also think that's one more layer to it. Every once in a while we'll have the, oh, this team is different. This season winner of this award. That's actually the guy, the type of guy that I picked. Same. But I don't really feel good. We picked the same person.

I promise you. I'm imagining we did. We picked the same person. but it wasn't easy to land on somebody this year. So Dave, I think because Derek and I pick the same guy, I'm going to let you kick this off. Who is your 2025 coach of the year winner? Well, now I'm wondering if maybe we have the same guy. Maybe not.

I mean, there's plenty of candidates for this. But I went through the same calculus that you did. And I looked at it. And I was like, I think I like this to be a year where the coach of the year is the coach of like the one seed. Like a team establishes himself as dominant. This is not a surprising team. And we joke all the time. Like Andy Reid hasn't won coach of the year as the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, which is insane.

Like he's 80 to 1 this year, by the way. Because we typically, we typically don't reward coaches of good teams. Him and Siriani have the worst odds. That is, it's so funny how this award works, by the compared to every other award. It's so stupid. So I'm glad you said that because I went with Nick Siriani to win coach of the year. Really? So here's my pushback on this.

How good would the Eagles have to be for this to happen? Number ones, here, here's my reasoning. And I firmly believe this. I've been on this since free agency ended and we looked at what the Eagles were going to look like. I think Philly's going to roll this year. Like, I think they are the best team in the NFC. I still, I don't think they are, like, I don't think they've come that far down to earth. And really, as long as Sequan Barkley is healthy, I think that this can be a 14-win team again this year.

And the reason why I think it's different, or at least I've talked myself into that, is it's one thing to be like the good team and voters often don't want to award you for that. But to be a team that has a chance to go back to back. And again, this would be the second time that Nick Siriani is trying to navigate losing coordinators. Like he lost Kellyn Moore. If he navigates it successfully this time and deals with the Super Bowl hangover, the, the attrition and making the right hires and avoiding the pitfalls that plagued them in 2023. If you do all of that and you are the one seed and it's unquestionable that you were the best team in the NFC, if the Eagles win, I put it one game lower. If the Eagles go 13 and

four this year, Nick Siriani's career winning percentage jumps to 72%. It puts him one spot. That's so outrageous. One spot behind Vince Lombardi. And so, I mean, so, I mean, I mean, I am, I'm taking a long shot here because voters often don't like to reward these sorts of things. But again, like, and especially, sorry Eagles fans, but when you don't have the Patrick Mahomes quarterback that eases all of this concern. And even if you love Jalen Hertz, I don't think people view him as quite on that tier. And you are doing this with more working parts than just Patrick is going to make us right 14 times a year. I think that's more impressive. And again, what?

this would be five play. If they do this, it would be five playoff trips in five years. It would be being the one seed in a year where you're coming off of a championship. I think they have to be the one seed to do it, but I think it could be impressive enough that people say, hang on a second. Let's give some credit to Nick Siriani because we look for other people to give all of that credit to every other year. But if they are really able to sustain this in such an impressive way, I think it could reflect. And yeah, I think you're probably, talking about philly needing to win 13 or 14 games to do this but i think they're capable of it so the team that that reminds me of the most when it comes to they weren't like a juggernaut all season

during the regular season they were very very good team but then they really hit a different year when we got deeper into the year and then they felt like by far the best team in the NFL are in the regular season is like the 2010 to 2011 Packers were like this they were 10 and 16 in 2010 they won the super bowl and then they won 15 games the previous next year don't talk to packers fans about what happened later in that season. But during the regular season, they went 15 and 1. Mike McCarthy did not win coach of the year that year

because that was the year that Jim Harbaugh's year 1, 49. 9ers. Yeah. So, but that's the same sort of deal. My other, I think it's difficult to do this. The other difficult part of this, and this is just,

comes along with the Nick Siriani conversation every year, I feel like it's more likely Jalen Hertz wins MVP and Howie Roseman wins executive of the year than Nick Siriani wins coach of the year in that scenario. See, I almost kind of think the opposite where if the team can really prove that they are good again, I think there might be some sort of admittance that like maybe Siriani is just really, really good at this. I think I don't think that's wrong. I don't think that's a wrong place to go.

I just think it's a tough hill to climb because of how good the roster is. I mean, it's the same conversation we've had about next year and I've each the last three years. He won the Super Bowl and I think there's still probably people out there being like, what does he really do? Yeah. You know? And I think that would be part of this again. I completely agree. that but I do think like if we get to December and Philly's only lost one or two times,

then I'm just, I'm imagining the ground swell of like, hey, notice what has happened here and give the guy that calls the shots at the end of the day the credit for it. I do I do think it's an uphill climb and maybe it's maybe it's wishful thinking. And again, really, if I could just, if I could just guarantee that Andy Reid would win this just so that he has won it at some point during his chief's tenure, I would. Because I think that's an oversight. Like, I do think we should reward the coaches of the consistently best teams, even if they have good rosters.

It's silly to think, I mean, do yourself a favor, not you guys, but if you're listening, go look at the list of guys that have won coach of the year in the NFL and tell me that some of them should have that award compared to an Andy Reid or even a Nick Siriani with everything that he's done. So maybe it's wishful thinking, but I do think, again, this would be a number of, another, this would be another time that the Eagles are trying to overcome attrition. They're trying to overcome having a target on their backs. And if they do it impressively enough, then I think ultimately people will come around on the idea that, like, yeah, the head coach is a part of this too.

Derek, who did you have for coach of the year? Matt Lafleur. I mean, if I'm going to, if I'm going to say the Packers are going to win like 14, 15 games. I'm sensing a theme in your. There's a big team here. It's a lot of Packers. But yeah, like, truly, if we're going to have a season where I don't believe in, because the other thing, me and Dave were actually talking about this earlier, like if you're going to be one of those

teams that, you know, everyone thought that over and under was seven and a half and then you win a bunch of games, you win more than you're supposed to and you win the coach of the year that way. Almost every time that happens, those teams still win at least 11 games. So like me trying to get to 11 games with a lot of these teams, I think was difficult. The only time since 2010 where a team, where a coach won the award with fewer than 11 wins was Brian Dable in 2022. Like, it just feels like you're really trying to thread a needle to be under that. But like, so I just didn't feel that comfortable about any mid teams that could get to 11 wins. So I just was like, well, kind of to what you said, like, I'm just going to pick the one seed that I think is interesting.

And to me, I think it's going to be the Packers and Matt Lafleur. I also picks Matt Lafleur. I did, I don't feel great about it because I do think the same tone we took the first time we really started having this conversation, which was on the half-bake take show where I was like, could this be the season where the Packers do this? I'm no more convicted on it now than I was then, even after the Michael Parsons trade. My tone is still the same. I'm like, could this be the season the Packers do it? That's where I sit with it.

And that's how not convicted I felt about any of the other options is that I was like, even if I'm not all the way there on this being the season where the Packers win like 13, 14 games, I'm still going to pick Matt LaFleur here because I don't feel that great about any of the other, not only options, but any of the other timelines of how the season will play out based on this award. Exactly. Should I have thought harder about Kevin O'Connell going back to back? Like if the Vikings exceed expectations with J.J. McCarthy, you just let him hold on to it. It's like the opposite of the Siriani thing. It's just like, we know exactly what Kevin O'Connell does if Jason McCarthy is good. Exactly.

The two guys, I will say, that are, have decent odds that are not long shots that I would throw out, that I feel like, I can see this happening. Peak Carroll at 12 to 1. Yeah. If the Raiders are like the surprise playoff team this year, which I do think is possible, even if they play in a very tough AFC West. And then Sean Payton at 14 to 1. That was harder to see because the Brumperman. The Broncos made the playoffs last year. So how good would the Broncos have to be this year? They would have to win the division. Right? Like they'd have to win the AFC West.

And it's just that is, even if you think they can win 11 games, and I think they can, beating the chiefs in that division, I still think is just a little bit tough. So that's why, like, even the guys with decent odds that I could see it happening, it's just hard for me to pick them. So that's why I went with the floor.

And then for the long shots, I've got a couple that very quickly came to mind for me. Brian Calhanna at 40 to 1. Based on some of the other things I'm going to say on the rest of the show, I probably should have just picked him. But I just, I don't have the bravery to do it. Brian Calhant at 40 to 1, if the Titans are that surprise playoff team this year, I think they have as good a chance as a lot of these other teams to get there. And so I like that at 40 to 1. The other one at 40 to 1 that, again, you can just see it happening.

What if the Lions just win 13 games this year? And the court interchanges didn't matter. It's very easy for me to imagine a world where Dan Campbell wins it. And he's 40 to 1 to win it right now. there are so many things that will happen that will make my Siriani prediction hard to follow through on that yeah like if the if the Lions don't miss a beat changing coordinators that's tough to argue against and the Lions won 15 and two last year and Dan Campbell didn't win this damn award I'm already I'm having I'm

already having regrets about rolling with Siriani but I believe that much in the Eagles this year that I'll stick with it all right before we get to a couple of the smaller awards and MVP we're going to take our first quick break Offensive rookie of the year. Derek, who do you have winning offensive rookie the year in 2025? Boring pick, but it's the quarterback who went first overall. I think it's going to be Cam Ward.

And like, this is like, everyone has made the joke, but like this is the least talked about number one pick at quarterback in like probably my entire lifetime. And it does not make sense to me because it's not, I guess part of it is like it's the Titans and there was all of the Sanders stuff with his class. And so I get it from that perspective. But the way that he plays is the way that we want.

on all of the quarterbacks to play now. It's like freewheeling in the pocket. It's being tough and making plays. Like his arm elasticity is incredible. His arm talent is incredible. Like he just has this. He just is such a gunslinger back there who also I think has still more like mental acumen to him than people think.

Like I think when we see a lot of these gunslingers, the backguard like ball type of players, there's just this assumption that is like Johnny Mansell and they're like not really like playing the game. That is not at all how I feel about Cam Ward. Like there is. some element of like the way that I watch Mahomes or like Jordan Love or just those guys that will do a lot of this interesting

and creative stuff but they're also very clearly put together and so he's still a rookie and so that's going to be a little bit of a process but just seeing the way that he handled the preseason seeing what I think he can handle mentally like from the jump and what he proved in college just like consistently leveling up like that to me is really important so he just I think so long as the one receiver he can throw to and Calvin Ridley is healthy for a majority of the year

I think like he's probably going to win it And I also, we've talked about this a bunch and it'll come up again on this show. The offensive line quality for the Titans potentially, that is a good situation to be dropped into as a rookie quarterback. Just when it comes to stability, a lot of these guys get drafted on teams that have awful offensive lines. And the fact that the Titans were as intentional as they were about making sure that was beefed up before he got dropped in there.

I just feel like he is set up a little bit better than a lot of guys drafted number one overall. I agree with that, but on the off chance we're wrong. I think it's worth pointing out, C.J. Shroud and J. Daniels have raised the bar of what a first year quarterback can do. That's right. But you can win this award

struggling as a rookie. Like, Kyler Murray won rookie of the year on a five win Cardinals team. Justin Herbert's stats were otherworldly as a rookie, but the Chargers did not finish that season with a winning record. So I don't think it's a fair bar to hold these guys to

that Cam Ward has to transform the Titans franchise overnight in order to win offensive rookie of the year. There's also a chance. He's just not good as a rookie. True. Right? I mean, that happens.

Yeah. Then it doesn't really say anything about what he'll be for the rest of his career. So Cam Ward just has a more normal rookie season compared to the ones we've seen for C. J. Stroud and Jad and Daniels, he may not win this award. It may just be Ashton Jensi gets 330 carries. And even if he has 3.8 yards a carry, he still wins it. Like, I'm open to that happening because I do think it's very possible.

Who is your, did you pick? I went with Cam Ward. Oh, so we all want with Cam Ward. Yeah. I mean, first overall picket quarterback. I mean, he does not have the best odds to win the award. No, Ashby Gentry, I assume. But when I game that out and will that shock me?

No, absolutely not. But if Ashton Genty has a 1100 yard season for a Raiders team that wins six to eight games and misses the playoffs, what's more? And let's just assume Cam Ward's pretty good. Like even if the Titans aren't a playoff team, like I still, I think you get, I actually, I think this happened. didn't was, Tyler won this over Josh Jacobs, I believe.

Yeah. And Josh Jacobs was, yeah. And Josh Jacobs was awesome. And so like, even like if Cam Ward's merely decent, tie goes to the quarterback. Tie goes to the quarterback.

Especially if he makes the Titans relevant. Like if the Titans are even a mediocre team, a team that's like fighting for a playoff spot. Like quarterback gets the tie for sure. And my other calculus with this too is like, the rookie kind of has to feel, at least in my opinion, with the quarterback, you kind of want them to feel immediately like the most important player on the offense.

Like that was true of CJ Strad. Even if you say like quality wise, Nico Collins is a better player, we all immediately felt that like CJ Stroud is the most important. Same thing with Jaden Daniels. I feel like unless Genti is like otherworldly, he's just never going to feel like the most important player on the offense because he's playing next to Brock Bowers.

And so like maybe that's like bad calculus on this, but I do think that is like at least some part of it. Yeah, I don't think that matters all the way, but I kind of understand where you're coming from. I still just think that if Cam Ward has a more, normal rookie season and Ashton Jentie gets the workload we expect him to get. There's absolutely a clear path for Ashton Jenty to win this. That's why he has the best thoughts.

Long shots for offensive rookie of the year are, there aren't many of them. Like there just aren't a lot of guys over like 20 to one odds that you can even make a real case for. Like R.J. Harvey is at 25 to 1. It's hard for me to imagine a timeline where RJ Harvey wins offensive rookie of the year. So I'm fudging a little bit when it comes to long shots. I pick somebody that's 10 to 1 or longer. Tetero McMillan getting like a disgusting number of targets this year and having,

especially with feeling on a true wide receiver one type of season like production wise. I do think I can imagine the universe where Tetero and McWill and McMillan wins offensive rookie of the year. He's 14 to 1. So that was my pick. If I wanted to go true long shot and shout out Dane Bruegler. He mentioned this on Building the Beast as well. Like either of the first round tight ends is intriguing to me.

What sort is if Brock Bowers. I just can't see it. Last year. Yeah. Okay, Brock Bowers was going up against a guy who transformed the Washington commanders. Like,

if Cam Ward struggles or if he's just ordinary, like, if the Titans win six games this year and Cam's like fine. Like the Brock Bowers didn't, he didn't lose offensive rookie of the year because he wasn't amazing. He just picked a bad year to have that year. Like, that's all that happened.

So if Cam Ward is anything less than transforming the Titans, an amazing season from Tyler. Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland could get the job done. Like those numbers were award worthy. It was just bad luck. Kind of the issue to me with both of them is that there are too many mouths to feed in both offices. That's exactly what I was about to say.

And if you're going to be a tight end, it's like that to me is just a little bit tricky. Even if like Colston Loveland, I come out of the season being like he's the sixth best tight end in the NFL, statistically it would be really hard for him to, I think that's my problem. It's hard for me to imagine the type of season where that would be possible. After Brock Bowers and Jacoby Myers, Jacoby Myers had 129 targets. Who do you think was the third leading target getter on the 2024, Las Vegas?

How many of you have? It was trade Tucker. How many targets do you think you had? 57. 81. Okay. After that, it's Alexander Madison and Amir of Dula, our fourth and fifth. That is not the case on either the Bears or Colts offenses, unfortunately.

Can I interest you in a slightly less long shot that I'm pretty excited about? Yes. Travian Henderson. I think Trevon Henderson is a fun one. Omarion Hampton deserves mention as well. I'm just, I'm a little less excited about that with Rashon. John Slater being hurt. Travion Henderson, if the Patriots approach anything resembling their ceiling, he just,

and like I think he'll be the dude in that offense by midway through the season. And I just imagine, I imagine him being a guy that pops up on Red Zone all the time where it's like, oh, he had a 45-yard touchdown around. Hell yeah, for sure. He is, his ability to capture the imagination is very strong. It took 10 seconds into his NFL career for him to be the story of NFL social media. If Henderson is good, people will immediately be like that feels like Washington, Jimir Gibbs, and people will gravitate to that.

Defensive rookie of the year, again, this is the one where I just had zero imagination whatsoever. Dave, we'll let you start with this one. Who is your pick for defensive rookie of the year? So if you were actually listening to this for tips and like if we just wanted to nail the prediction, is anybody in NFL media going to go against Abdul-Carter? Like, sure, like, it's not going to be me officially. Travis Hunter has the second best.

odds to win this award. We don't even know how much defense is going to play. Mike Green has the third best odds to win this award. Sort of season anything Mike Green would have to have to win a voted upon award. And this is a wonderful point. He would have to have like 30. Yes. Okay.

Jalen Walker has the fourth best odds. I'm not going to falcon. Who is a, may play for one of the worst defenses in the league and his switching positions that has been banged up for most of training camp. Mikel Williams has the fifth best odds. he has not played for a huge chunk of training camp for a defense that we have no idea how good they're going to be there just aren't that many obvious options and so that's why i went with abduel carter i think this is one of those ones where like we all we want to be creative and think outside the box

and sometimes you just got to call it what it is and this is abdul carter's award to lose i will say offensive rookie of the year was caleb williams's award to lose last year and we saw how that turned out so like you cannot predict a season but going into it, I think any other name is just wishcasting. Like you're just hoping. Whereas like logically and with the situation that he's in, the talent's undeniable. You saw what he did during the preseason. He's going to have favorable matchups because of the talent on that front.

And with the amount that he's already in the national consciousness by virtue of being a top five pick, like he only needs six or seven sacks to win this award. And if he gets more than that, it's over. Like if he has a 10-sac season, forget about it. Did you have Abu Carter as well, Derek? Yeah, I did. And it's like, I think before the preseason games got kicked off, I could like dream of worlds where it was someone else.

And I could like convince myself of like, especially too, Abdul Carter came out of the draft being like, there might be a little bit of a foot issue. We don't know how healthy he's going to be. And then you see him play one preseason game. And you're like, ah, well, it's very clearly his award to lose at this point. So it was not even interesting picking someone here. I felt the same way.

My long shot, again, same odds is my long shot for offensive player. offensive rookie of the year. I had Jihad Campbell, Sam. I mean, you know I would. I think, you know, if he has six or seven sacks and like kind of a strange role where he's getting to blitz a little bit more, if the Eagles defenses, that unit, like the same way that it was again last year, it's just easy for me to imagine the world where he becomes like a really big talking point over the course of the season.

If you want to dig deep, the only other one that I thought was like mildly interesting at plus 6,000 was like, if the commander's defense is decent, that to me requires. Trey Amos being like a really good rookie out of the gate, which I don't think is going to happen, but all of the other long shots just don't feel very appealing to me. Or they're like these guys are hurt already. Like Nick Scorton, I kind of like it plus 4,000, but he's already kind of been battling injuries. So that one is like tricky to bet on.

Yeah, I think this is one where there just aren't a lot of like out of nowhere type guys that end up winning it. He's definitely not out of nowhere, but I like my long shot a lot at 25 to 1, Will Johnson. The only thing, the only thing I don't like is that. he plays for a team that doesn't get a lot of eyeballs. Like the Cardinals are going to have to be pretty damn good for him to win this award. But we know that he fell because of injury. He was viewed as a top 15 prospect.

I think the consensus big board that takes every ranking into account had him as the 13 overall prospect in this draft. If he plays like that and the Cardinals are good, then I like that a lot. And he got, he had nine picks in college. Like he's a guy with ball skills. So if he starts for a good. Cardinals team and picks off three or four balls and Arizona is like a surprise wildcard team. Like I said, if I was really trying to make money off of this, I would pick Abdul Carter,

but I like Will Johnson as a sleeper. I also think that there's a scenario where the Cardinals defense is like a talking point over the course of the year. The Cardinals defense is like a surprise unit. Will Johnson has six or seven interceptions, the ball skills that you mentioned. I think that's actually a good one. Assistant coach of the year, this one was really difficult for me this year. I just, it was because all the ones that I can understand it, mention the Cardinals defense.

Like, if the Cardinals defense is that sort of unit and like Nicolaos becomes like a talking point, I can see that. But it's just, I'm not willing to write it in pen yet that that's like going to happen. And so the units I feel best about, there are a bunch of like complicating factors as to why this guy wouldn't win it. Their head coach, their play caller is a head coach. There's like, they have an elite quarterback. There's so many confounding things that made it difficult for. for me to have like a clear-eyed choice with this one.

Derek, why don't you kick us off here? Who is your assistant coach of the year for the 2025 season? I do think in terms of like trying to pick the candidates, it is a little bit more clear than coach of the year because coach of the year can either be like the best insane team or just like who's surprised a little bit. I do feel like assistant coach of the year more often is just like the top three unit. Like you just pick one of the guys from a top three unit.

And to me if Denver's defense is going to be that good, I think that there's a world where like if Vance Joseph takes his, defense from like 6th to first and Patrick Certan is crazy. The pass rush continues to be the best in the league and they really are like a ass kicking almost wined division type of unit. I could see Vance Joseph getting his flowers. I'm going to change my pick to Vance Joseph. There we go.

I'm glad I can tell you. I'm going to put my picks of Vance Joseph because I actually think that's really good because the other defenses that I think we're in that conversation again bringing back that we think they have a chance to be the best defense in the league. The Texans are coached my Damiko. Ryan's who is that, you know, that's going to throw a wrench into that. The Seahawks are coached by Mike McDonald. The Lions, the talent is obviously there. Calvin Shepard is a first year coordinator. I don't know how that's going to go. And the original pick that I had, I was like,

maybe Joe Brady gets it if like the Bill's defense, Bill's offense is the best offense in the league. But when it comes to those, like Ben Johnson winning it last year, I don't think he wins if Lamar Jackson is his quarterback. But because Jared Gough is, I think that's where you get there with assistant coach of the year. So that's me, it was a barrier for somebody like Joe Barry you're winning it. So among all the ways that I look at this, Vance Joseph is probably the best choice, even if defense is very volatile and hard to predict.

Yeah, I mean, that is a super logical pick. I have, I guess in the interest of throwing out more names, I'm curious about Robert Sala. See, I wanted to see, this is the issue I had with the assistant coach of the year two,

because there were a lot of units where I was like, man, they could go from 20th to ninth. Does that, does that do it. That was kind of what I was thinking. So I thought about Sala for that reason. I didn't have that many other candidates. Because even I think like Chip Kelly falls into that, right?

Yeah, fair. It's like they could go from the 22nd best offense to the ninth best offense. I don't know if that wins them the award. That's a really good point because I'm thinking about like Dan Quinn won this with Dallas when he came over from Atlanta. But Dallas was without looking at it, they were like a top three unit. Like, I mean, you got to be better than ninth or tenth. But Robert Sala had, you know, The narrative part of it is there, right?

Where he's like a much more known name. It would be a very obvious difference making hire where they struggled last year and they were good in 2025. The Niners, if, you know, with the way they line up with their talent and their schedule, if they win a ton of games. Like there's a lot of reasons to think it would work, but he would have to coach them to better results than just middle of the pack to get there probably. Yeah. So looking at it, the last couple of defensive coordinators that have won assistant coach. of the year. Dan Quinn won in 2020. The Cowboys finished second in weighted defensive DVOA. Yeah. In 2022, then D'Emeco Ryan's won it. The Niners finished first in defensive way to

DVOA. In 2023, Jim Schwartz won it. The Browns finished third and weighted defensive DVOA. They finished second in defensive DVOA overall. So you essentially need to be a top three unit on defense by the end of the year in order to win this award. And even if you feel bullish about where the Niners can get, do you feel that good about the ceiling of the Niners defense? It's hard. I wish I did, but no, I don't. So that's why I just, I think the menu is like smaller than we want it to be. Because even the defenses, they think, oh, this can be the best defense in the league. It's a lot of head coaches that are defensive head coaches.

The only other one, too, like, if the Ravens defense from start to finish is what they were at the end of last year, like, or could potentially get his flowers for that too. And how good do we feel about that? I don't, I don't, I, if they play a better. I'm kind of like, I think they can do it. A better slate of offenses over the side. Like, yeah, it's, I do think it's a little bit propped up by that. Maybe if they don't drop off at all and if Debo Samuel is amazing for them, Cliff Kingsbury.

Cliff is a good one. That's a good one. That's a very good. He was definitely on my sure list of people that I was going to throw out. So I think Cliff is a very good one because if that offense is really good again. And again, I think so much about narrative when I think about this stuff. And he was a head coach. He was in the college game.

Like people know Cliff Kingsbury. You don't like some of these guys, it's like, yeah, do I trust all of the different voters who vote on this to figure out who this guy is and that he's doing a good job in time to win this award like because it's like a snowball and once you get to a certain point it's just easier to get this type of recognition and cliff kingsbury is obviously way past that point we just i mean cliff kingsbury if you look at the ben johnson prototype when it comes to how you pick a guy to win this where there was a good offense before still isn't like one of the MVP level like top five at top three top four quarterbacks we'll see where jaden lands but right now probably

isn't. That's what the Ben Johnson formula looks like. There aren't that many guys who follow that like archetype in the NFL period anymore. Like if you look at this, a lot of guys are either play calling head coaches or the best offenses in the league have truly league quarterbacks where the role of the assistant is diminished when it comes to that. So it just there aren't that many guys who like follow that blueprint anymore. But Cliff Kingsbury is absolutely one of those guys. Like Zach Robinson would be another one potentially. If Atlanta is like the fifth best office. Like, there just aren't that many of them anymore.

And so it's hard to pick an offensive guy because I think the pool is just pretty small right now. New one this year, very excited about this. Protector of the year. First time we will pick this. Derek, what are you going with? Obviously, this is the new award that essentially celebrates the best offensive linemen in the NFL in a given year. Yeah, this is one where, like, he probably won't win it because the quarterback is mostly celebrated on this offense. But, like, Dionne Dawkins is a really interesting one.

I think he like kind of resembles a lot of the development that this offensive line has had in the sense that like he's been the only guy that's been good for them. Even when the rest of the line was bad and the fact that he's been such a stabilizing factor for them, I think is like a pretty big part of it. I think the bill's offense in general is just going to be really good again. And then with Dawkins specifically, and I don't know if this is really even going to apply to protector of the year, but like to me it kind of should. He's a very unique player in the way that his splits work. Like he is, he plays so much wider from his guard typically, especially on passing downs. than other guys, which I think allows the pocket to be a little bit bigger for Josh Allen and give him more obvious ways to maneuver around.

And so I think that uniqueness is kind of pretty special and should be celebrated in whatever way. And so I think if we could, like, I think I'm imagining, like, I am assuming the protector of the year award is going to go to like Trent Williams or something, like a very obvious name. But in my mind, it should be someone who kind of has like a unique flare to them the way the dog and says. I mean, he's the person that made the award thing.

And so that also plays into it as well. little bit. It's hard because with a lot of these other awards, Dave, we at least have some history when it comes to how the narrative impacts the way the award is given. We have nothing about that. So there's nothing to go on in terms of who we think will win it and why. Okay, that is true, but, and I'm so happy about offensive line play getting recognition and we're making strides in this type of stuff every year. But when you talk about honoring offensive linemen, we always joke that, like, once you reach a certain point, like the top dogs stay on top, right? Like, Like if you reach that point,

Lane Johnson is a great example where it's just the all pros snowball and you just Lay Johnson is my pick for protector of the year. Well, that's perfect because I had the same thought process, different idea. I laughed when you said it. I said Trent Williams. Yeah.

There you go. I do like as much as we might get excited about a lot of young tackles and a lot of guys, I still think like Lane, Trent Williams, Penae Sewell, like you need to a. Those are literally the first three names. I mean, you've got to play at a high level. And again, like, you've got to reach a certain level of

notoriety where, like, everybody who watches the game understands the importance that you have to your team. I think because it's the first one, we might be more inclined as a voting body. I don't have a vote. They might be more inclined as a voting body to make it like a lifetime achievement award. Sure. Right. And so I think Lane Johnson is right now currently, I think the best offensive women in the NFL. And I think because he has been, he is that and has been that for such a long time. I do think this could be the type of thing where it's like because with Zach Martin retiring, it feels like Lane Johnson and Trent Williams are kind of in their own little category right now is like the mainstays that are still at the top of their positions.

And so that's why I think one of those two guys to me makes the most sense. And because Lane was the best guy in the league last year, I'm going with Lane. I would take Lane or Trent against the entire field of every other offensive linemen in the NFL between, I mean, they are still that good. Don't get me wrong. But they also just have that cachet and those resumes. And that's the thing is like to the point. point of what you said about snowballing. This is so dumb about Dionne Dawkins now that we're

like eight years into his career, but like he was not a first round pick in the way that all those like elite tackles usually our first round picks. And so I think we tend to gravitate to those guys. And so even if Dawkins is actually as good as those guys, there is some element of like Penisual was just the sixth overall pick like four years ago. Let's get to MVP. I typically have a guy as we do all of our preseason concept where I'm like, this will be the guy picked for MVP at the end of all of this. And I just didn't really have that. this year. We mentioned at the top, just to me, a lot of the confounding, conflating factors that play into not having a clear choice going into this season. Dave, we'll put you on the spot first.

Who was your MVP for 2025? I appreciate that because I hated coming to this conclusion. And going through my notes to get here, I felt like the Charlie Kelly meme where he's like gesturing to the map of shit on the wall. That's me trying to tell you why I think Joe Burrow really could win MVP. And like, I'll just double down on it. Really, I hate to say for lack of a better choice, because that sounds like a slight, but really, like, I have to do some mental gymnastics to get there for obvious reasons. The Bengals are a very flawed team. So let me walk you through my reasoning for this.

When healthy, Joe Burroughs a 4,500 yard 30 plus touchdown player. His career interception rate is 1.8%, which is right there with Patrick Mahomes. It's one of the best in the NFL among active players. I think only Aaron Rogers is really substantially better than him. And obviously Aaron Rogers hasn't been playing like that for a substantial amount of time. So right now we can assume very confidently that if he's healthy, Joe Burrow is going to throw for 35 plus touchdowns and probably 12 or fewer interceptions. He had 43 and 9 last year. He had an MVP case last year, by the way.

Like he played at that level. The Bengals defense wasn't good enough. If they win one or two more games, not saying he would have surpassed Lamar or. or Josh, he certainly would have finished third in voting behind Sequin Barclay. Like, he really was that good. Now, the conspiracy part of this is I'm relying on voter fatigue a little bit. Yeah. I'm relying on.

That's part of why it's hard to pick somebody this year. Yeah, it is. I mean, Lamar has won two. He had a case last year. And it's not fair. I would have voted for Lamar last year. I don't have a vote. I would have voted for Lamar last year, even as much as I love Josh Allen.

But I think voters are going to have a hard, like it's going to have to be so indisputable. for voters to put Lamar into that three MVP category. Because I think there are years where the voter fatigue would give Lamar maybe a little bit of a leg up on Josh Allen this year. I think because of how muddled it was last year, there's a chance that the actual vote doesn't matter quite as much. Where it's just like, oh, Lamar just won it. You know, I bet there are people who are going to vote be like, oh, Lamar just won MVP, even though he didn't win it last year. And so I kind of expect voters to be leery of Josh and Lamar for that reason, where it's like. It's like a double voter fatigue in a way there typically is not.

Leave me out of this. So naturally, it's easy to say, okay, well, Patrick Mahomes is sitting right there. And if Risholice hadn't just taken a six-game suspension, I might have been willing to get there with Patrick Mahomes. But I kind of want to see the chief's offense be back to its old explosiveness before I just assume that that's going to happen. And so then I sit there and I think, okay, am I really dumb enough to pick a quarterback who's probably not going to win his division to win MVP? there is precedent for it and you don't have to go back that far. Peyton Manning in 2008 won MVP as the five seed in the AFC. The Colts lost the division that year to the Tennessee Titans when they had CJ 2K and they won 13 games.

Now, there's a very huge, huge caveat. Tom Brady towards ACL in week one of that season. So one of the huge contenders to win MVP was not part of the race. But Peyton Manning still won MVP as a five seed. And so if the Bingle's offense is as good as I think it's going to be, and this is like an 11-win team, and Joe Burrow puts up those kind of numbers, you combine that with the voting fatigue.

And also I think people will say, he's clearly that guy. He's clearly, you know, he's right on that tier with these other three, and they all already have their awards. Let's give Joe his award before he gets any older. And yet, like, please don't, oh, well, we're not doing video anyway, but please don't comment on my LSU tat.

too. I have removed partiality as much as I can in this conversation. I think it makes sense other than the one stretch is them probably not winning the AFC North, but I do think Joe's numbers can be good enough to get there. They could.

You're right. The Bengals had like a competent defense in one 12 games. Like that absolutely can happen. It's hard. It's just hard to get there when we know how bad the defense was last year and trying not to overvalue preseason, but they didn't give us any confidence that it would be better during August. I agree with everything you said about the case. I just, when you look at the

history of it, you have to be a certain level of team to have an MVP, to produce an MVP. And I just worry that the Bengals can get there. This is literally like how I feel about Max Crosby or like earlier. Like that is the player who is of quality to do it. But until the team I feel like there is a world where they can win like 12 games, but going into the season, that is not a team I am picking to win 12 games. So it's kind of hard for me to get there as well. That's kind of how I was too. And I went through the exact same thing with my homes too where I was like oh I'll just give it to my home so I'm not giving one of those other guys and it was still hard for me to get there. Derek who is your pick for MVP in 2025? This was I I like threw out all of the voter fatigue stuff. I don't care like if I look at the

case and think about how good the team is going to be again and how good the player is I'm just going going to pick Lamar Jackson. That's what I did. There is no reason the only reason that you would think that he can't do something he's not going to necessarily go one for one for what he did last year because that offense was crazy but him getting to 92% of what he did last year. the only thing that stops him from doing that is like some sort of catastrophic injury to some other player around him which like going into the season that's just not fun for me to make part of the calculus so if I just look into this thing like he has the same offensive coordinator the defense should help him out a little bit Derek Henry's still there offensive line still

solid his receiving core is probably deeper now than it was last year if d'andre hopkins has anything left in the tank and mark andrews is coming into the season healthy in a way that he was not last year like this is just why would I not pick Lamar Jackson and I do think the voter for point is I think there's that side of it. I also think there's the side of it that because he got slighted last year, there might actually be on the flip side of like, hey, maybe he deserves it again, actually. That was probably what pushed it over the line for me to eventually pick him,

is that it could go one of two ways when it comes to how the voters will look at it. It could be, ah, he kind of just won it or, well, he didn't actually win it and should have. So we're going to give it to him again this year. So that's why I also pick Omar Jackson. It was just, it was hard for me to imagine a scenario where another. team had the best offense in the NFL and the team's success that wasn't Josh Allen on the bills and he's just not he's probably not going to win it again. And I think I'll readily admit part of this, I don't want to say bored because I will never ever be bored of watching Lamar

Jackson play football. But you just you look for something new, right? And so like if you're not looking for Josh and Lamar Redux, then Joe Burrow is a name that makes sense. I just, I do want to say this into a microphone while we're talking about it. If that stuff doesn't come to pass, Jalen Hertz is a like if the if the Eagles are as good as I think they are going to be and Jalen Hertz he doesn't even have to up his production that much but like if the Eagles passing offense is noticeably more consistent than it was last year if Jalen Hertz throws for 3,300 yards and 25 touchdowns and takes care of the ball the way he did last year that I can't do that no I under no circumstances am I going to let somebody win an MVP award if he went throws for 3,300 yards

I think we got to separate. You cannot be the most valuable player of the league if you throw for 3,300 yards. We have to separate like could and should. Like I'm telling you it could happen. And I'm telling you a lot of people who vote for this award will care about that. If Jalen Hertz throws for 3,300 yards, 25 touchdowns and five picks and rushes for 15 touchdowns and the Eagles go 15 and two, a lot of people are going to want to vote for that guy to win MVP. Like that's just a reality. with the AJ Brown, Sakey on the market numbers.

It's hard to make the math work knowing what Sequin did for that team last year. So I get it. But if the Eagles are as good as I think they're going to be, it will be a very real conversation. This is going to be inflammatory. And I understand I'm already the Jalen Hertz like skeptic. When has the sixth best player on their offense ever won an MVP? That's probably never happened. I don't know, but I'm telling you it could happen.

I don't know. I can't get there. We got precedent for this. obviously they didn't have Sequin and they weren't as prolific running the ball, but he was second in the MVP race in 2022. Yeah. Like that I also. Wins are, wins are a big cure-all in these conversations.

Whether that's right or wrong is not the issue in hand. I just don't think that should be the case. I also don't, I just feel like they're going to be guys playing at a high enough level over the, like league-wide, a quarterback. I think you have to pick one of the four AFC quarterbacks. I tend to agree with you. like kind of the, I just, like I said, I just want to put this on record so I can come back to it in December and remind you that this conversation took place.

I had two long shots that I wanted to just throw out there where it's like, okay, I could see the season unfolding in this way where this guy could win it. Jordan Love at 18 to 1. Yeah. I mean, I feel like is if we have, if Packers have that sort of like a ceiling as a team, the other one out there out there, because again, I think that their ceiling on offense is pretty high.

And if they're a team that because the schedule's not very good, can get to like a 12 win place. I know where it's going. Pretty is 25 to 1. That's what I had. Yeah. I mean, I think those are both. Yeah, I can see each of those seasons,

the versions of the season unfolding now. I mean, Jared Goff was in the thick of this conversation for a long time last year before he ultimately fell out because Josh and Lamar were that good too. It was like if, if the lions were to over again, especially,

I mean, if they're as good as they were last year with Ben Johnson leaving, again, I'm just thinking about like, what are people talking about like narratively? I could see a lot of people talking about Jared Goff. Because, with Purdy, too, you can see the Niners. You don't always have to be the one seed to win the

award. You can be like the second and that I think that I can usually still apply. The Niners I can see getting the second seed. Basically every other quarterback after this, I kind of struggle to see it. It's a lot of like, Jared Goff has the same odds. So that could be it. But like, Bo Nix and the Broncos that, that is not happening. Like Matthew Stafford is he even going to play the season? Then you get like Drake May and Trevor Lawrence at 4,500. Like that's, even if I want to be in on the Jaguars, it's kind of impossible to see that world. All right. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back with our playoff picks. We talked about these teams pretty much ad nauseum in each of the division previews that

we've done. We're not going to spend a ton of time on these. We're going to run through them pretty quickly. Let's start with the NFC North. David, your champion in 2025 for the NFC North is who? I feel like, and it's not a criticism because I like them a lot too, but we've talked a lot about the Green Bay Packers over the course of the last two months. And as much as I love them, I do, I feel.

I just feel like there needs to be representation of the lions on this podcast. And so I'm not ready to give up the NFC North just yet. I picked the Lions winning the division, though I do think it's going to be a dog fight. And I don't think they will do it with as many wins as they had last year. There are three teams in the NFC North where if you told me that they either won the division, won a wild card, or did not make the play. That's not true. There are three teams in the NFI, if you told me if they won the division, I'd be like, okay.

I have no issue with that whatsoever. The Lions, the Packers and the Vikings, I feel that way, but all three of them. So picking the, I'm not going to be like, oh, wow, you're picking the Lions to win the NFC North. That's hardly shocking. That's completely fine with me. I have the Lions as a wildcard team. I pick the Packers. I don't feel great about it.

Like, I don't feel strongly about the Packers being a better team than the Lions in 2025. I just don't. I just pick the Packers because, I don't know, the Michael Parsons trade. I feel like the Lions could take a small step back with all the changes. And we don't know how good the quarterback for the Vikings is going to be. And so I feel like the Packers have more. continuity than any team in the NFC North when you look at the most important component pieces and they just added micropersons.

So the Lions are, or the Packers are a 12 win team and the Lions are a 12 win team. They win a wildcard. I don't care. Like I just think it's so, so close between those teams, but I did end up picking the Packers. I mean, you don't even have to ask me.

Of course I picked the Packers. NFC East, David. Who do you got? I have the Philadelphia Eagles winning it. I think the Philadelphia Eagles are going to be the one seat in the NFC and earn home field events. So obviously you got to win the division first. I also pick the Eagles on the East.

I'm also with the Eagles. Like there were three for three. There's so, you can see the upside case for all the other teams, but even the upside case for all the other teams is probably not as good as the downside case for Philly. Yeah. And again,

I think Washington's going to be a playoff team. I have them in my wildcard teams. I just feel like the Eagles are, have a chance to like Dave said, be the best team in the NFC and maybe the best team in the NFL over the course of the regular season. NFC South. David,

who do you got? I got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I do as well. There was a point this season, this offseason, I was like, oh, maybe we get there with the Falcons. I feel good about the offensive line, but the injuries of tackle already, the concerns about the defense, even if I do feel like the Bucks have their own question marks, and I think maybe I'm not as high on them as like a true Super Bowl contenders as I would have been, or I thought I was going to be coming into the year. I still feel like they're the best pick to win the NFC South.

I don't like them as much as I wanted to, but it's a long season. I mean, Tristan Wirfs comes back and starts kicking ass again, then I'm right back on board. but yeah, I still. If Grisard is good from the start, if some of the young guys could come in tribute to the defense, like I absolutely think that there is a world where the bucks can win like 12 games. I still feel like they're the safest pick in that division as well.

Did you also have the buckster? I also picked that. I wanted to pick the Falcons, but there's something about right now staring at the offensive line that is like worried. Obviously the defense is also scary, but looking at the offensive line, the more it was.

I was a little bit worried about what they're feeling much volatility. There potentially where I think the bucks bring you a lot more stability even with a, offensive coordinator. NFC West, Dave, who did you have? I got the San Francisco 49ers. I've been hyping them up. Joanne Jennings is back at practice.

It's all coming together, people. Third and John. I got the 49ers winning 11 plus games. Yeah, I have the Niners. I have the nineers as well in the NFC West. I also have the 49ers. We'll talk about the other NFC West teams here in a second. I like all the other NFC West teams.

I just, the Rams with the quarterback is like, it's just hard for me to pick them to win a division right now. I know the Niners have their own question marks, but I just think the Niners are really prone for, like, I think the Niners are really prime for a bounce back year. NFC wild card teams.

Let's just do all three of them at once for each of us. Dave, who were your three NFC teams in the wild card? So I think this is going to be a theme for us. I picked the Lions to win the division. I naturally have the Packers making the playoffs as a wild card. I still really like that team. I wrestled with them for a long time,

but ultimately I decided I just, I want to have fun with the LA Rams. I want to believe that that version of the Rams is there. And I'd rather it go sideways and say like, ah, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, then watch them be fun. And I'm stuck on the sideline knowing I didn't pick them. So I'm rolling with the Rams.

And then my last one, I just decided to get weird with it. I joked on the preview. The NFC South could have two teams. And my seventh seed is the Atlanta Falcons. and I'm just basically hoping that Michael Pinnock's is that guy. I have no issue with that whatsoever. I mean, if he is that guy, like he's, that team probably can win like 10 games and they can sneak in.

Yes. If the defense is like mildly competent, I think that's the other part of this. So I want to start by saying that I think my NFC West take is that it's actually not that good of a division. It's just competitive. But I actually don't really love the ceiling for a lot of these teams. So I didn't put any of the other. The ceiling, I think is a good point.

I think all of them to me have like. I think they'll all be tough outs, but I didn't put any of them in. I don't have any of the men other than the Rams. Oh, okay. I didn't even put there. I have the Lions as the Fisci. That's again, like whichever one you don't put in. Whichever one you don't put in.

The division is a wild part. That one's easy. I quibbled over Washington a lot and I still don't love this team, but they're kind of my version of like the offense might be so fun that I'll put them in. And then my seventh seat, I'm almost doing this just to be a nuisance, but I put it in the Chicago Bears. They are my like, I've kicked the Rams out. And I quibbled for a while over like which NFC I,

wanted, which NFC team I wanted to put in. And to me, it's just like, in the world where they do make the playoffs, which team is the most fun for me to watch? It is probably the Chicago Bears. I can't support that. No comment. I don't. I didn't expect you to. I mean, I logically, do I understand how that happens? Yes. I just, I'm not going to let myself go there. And you, you shouldn't, but I don't have an emotional investment. No, you're fine. That's fine. I can do. I, I just, I think that there are, some of the other team. I think the fan base is going to be the most pissed off because none of us pick them to make the playoffs

is easily going to be the Vikings. I don't think we have to retread this territory in the same way we have 40 different times over the last couple months. The quarterback question is enough of a question for me where it's like the three wild car teams that I picked were the Rams, the Lions, and Washington. I feel much better about the offensive infrastructure

in those three places, even with a new coordinator in Detroit, then I do about a quarterback I've never seen play football before we pick them to make the playoffs. If there were, if this was a watered down field and it was like, I don't have a 17 I feel good about, I'll just throw the Vikings in there, fine. That's not how I feel about any of these teams. Like, this is boring, but those are the three teams that I picked just because I feel better about their offenses than I do about any of the three teams I left off.

I easily, because we see this all the time, if there's going to be some movement, I think the Cardinals can easily be a wildcard team this year. You talk about the defense being like a unit that takes a huge step forward. The offense has been like a borderline top 12th unit for the last couple years. I think the Vikings easily could make the playoffs for all the reasons that we've talked about. And the other team I'll throw out that I, against my better judgment, picked as my last team in the wins pool. Because I do think that they have like a 10, 11 win ceiling is the Seahawks. I think the Seahawks could potentially make the playoffs.

So those are the three teams that I would throw out. If I was a braver person, I would mention the Carolina Panthers in this discussion. Sure. If I were a braver person. Over the Bears? or is that just like a purely, I emotionally can't do that. Yeah.

Okay. For you, okay, that's fair. I'm just making sure. I need to make clear. I think we did this at the top, like at the beginning of the summer,

but like the Saints and maybe the Giants are the only teams in the entire NFC where if you tell me they're going to make the playoffs, I'm like, I look at the Giants. Oh, I can make the case of the Giants. I can like kind of get there. That actually helps my point because my whole point is just like,

look, I can see the case for basically everyone. Like obviously this, most of the teams in the NFC could, could do something really fun this year. It's so spineless, but like that's exactly where I am right now. And I think the problem is like the depth with,

at which we've talked about all these teams, even in the previews, whatever, I have forced myself into thinking about every permutation of every single version of all of these teams. And so I just, it's hard for me to be like, oh yeah, I feel so good about Team X winning 12 games this year.

I just don't feel that way. in the way that we've talked about the league for the last however long. And so I just don't have a lot of conviction when it comes to this stuff. Let's get to the AFC playoff teams. Dave, kick it off. Who's winning the AFC North for you? I think I kind of outlined it in my Joe Burrow MVP case, but I've got the Ravens winning the division and a bunch of football games.

I've got them as the one seed in this year's AFC playoffs. Same. They're going to win like 14 games. Nothing to add. Also pick the Ravens. AFC South. This one's a little bit more fun. It is, but I'm a coward.

And like, Derek and I talked about this before the show. There's, there's so much room to look like an idiot with this division because you could fall flat on your face. Oh, no. At the end of the day, even with all the issues they're facing, there's just more that I believe in in in Houston. There's just more. And I like Cam Ward. Like, we'll get to the other elements of this division. But like, I don't want to pick the Jags to win the AFC South and watch them win.

in five games for some dumb reason this year. Like, that sounds miserable. So I'd rather trust that C.J. Stroud and a top-tier defense can get the job done, even if they are flawed. Yeah, I also picks Houston. I think actually, Houston, I think is an underrated. That is one of my last, like, things I want to say going to the season. I think they're, like, an underrated football team.

I think so many things offensively went wrong for them last year. And the offensive line still scares me. But, like, I still think this is a team that wins, like, 10 games and wins a division. I want to be clear about this. My, like, Texan skepticism in the. seat at the table show was driven by two things. One, it was fun to like push back and everything you guys were saying. And two, this was about like Super Bowl aspirations.

The AFC South and winning the Super Bowl are two very different things. And so when it comes to the Texas chance to win the AFC South, I feel okay about that. I also pick the Texans to win the AFC South. So they're plus 100 to win the division right now. AFC West, Dave. I will not pick somebody else to win the AFC West until it happens. I'm going to rock with the Chiefs for as long as number 15s over there with Andy. Yeah, I've made that mistake enough times.

I'm also picking the Chiefs. Yeah, I will never not be picking the Chiefs. So, AFC East, this is the easiest one for me. Also not picking against the bills until somebody in that division proves why I should. It's really funny that for a good chunk of Josh Allen's time is like Josh Allen, the AFC has been like a watered down division where there hasn't been much competition. I think you could make a case that it's the worst it's ever been this year. I mean, yeah, for like the vibes in Miami are not good.

The Patriots are going to be better. But the Patriots being better is like winning nine games. Exactly. Yeah, probably. But like, we never know for sure, right? Like maybe there's a timeline where the Patriots are that much better than even the optimists expect. But I'm looking at it right now. I'm looking at it right now.

Who do you think has the best odds in the NFL to win their own division? It's got to be Kansas City. or Buffalo. There's too many good teams in the West, I think, for it to be Kansas City. Then it's got to be Buffalo. Is it Buffalo? Buffalo is minus 350 to win the AFC least.

The Chiefs are minus 120 to win the AFC West. Yep. So I legitimately do think this is like maybe the Eagles would be close in terms of but even those 15. No, Washington. Yeah. That's not the same.

That's not the same. Isn't the divisions and the teams that we think are good? Your odds do not look like that because there's one other team that's a possible playoff team in your division. There is, if you look at this right now, to win, to make the playoffs, the other teams in the AFC West, their playoff odds. The Jets are plus 500. The Patriots are plus 145 to make the playoffs, which is actually better than I thought.

And the dolphins are plus 190. To even make the playoffs, the Steelers are plus 140. So like, even if your division is good and even if you're a good team, even if you're a really good team, you're just not going to have those sorts of odds to win the division. Is this cosmic retribution for the way the Patriots own the bills? I think that kind of does feel like it. All right. Let's get to the ASC wildcard teams.

Dave, just give me all three. So I got Cincinnati as the five seed famous last words. I said that last year too, and we know how that worked out. But I do believe at the sixth seed, Tennessee Titans, I'm buying all the stock in Cam Ward that I can. It's more fun that way. And I really do like him that much as a player. The Titans have a better infrastructure than your average. team that picked first overall.

I like the line. The weapons are pretty good. The defense should be... The weapons are pretty good is where I have to draw a line and send. The weapons are pretty good for a team that just picked number one. They're not that good. Calvin Ridley is a good player. The weapons are not good.

Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard is a fine starting point for the team that just had the number one overall pick. That's all I'm trying to say. We've said we did this last year with Caleb Williams. I think the difference for me when it comes to the supporting cast on paper being different. The offensive line talent is good. Bill Callahan is there. Right? Like the infrastructure is different than Shane Waldron. If the talent on paper is one thing. We don't know what we talked about this all last season when it comes to situation. Like sometimes you don't know what the multiplier on

the coaching staff looks like for the offensive talent. I don't think we're all the way there with Brian Callahan yet. Even if you and I both have some cautious optimism about how that went last year, the Bill Callahan part of this, I feel the Bears skill position talent was what people were talking about last year. Did not get maximized because the coaching was bad. The Titans' offensive line on paper is a good group and I feel good about Bill Callahan getting the most out of that group. So that's why I feel like I feel a little bit more comfortable being like, yeah, the supporting cast is good for number one overall pick, even though we just did this last year and did it wrong. Sure. I mean, so I'm running into the same obstacles year over year too because I'm just trusting in the Bengals to

find a way to win one or two more games. But it is what it is. And my seven, my seven seed, I agonized. And it makes a hell of of a lot of sense to pick Denver, but I'm just trusting the law of averages that a lot of the playoff field turns over year over year. I'm sorry Broncos fan. This is basically just playing the odds. And I wound up going with New England in the seventh seed. I got, here's what it came down to. I'm agonizing over the pick. And like Denver is the logical pick, right? But you're thinking, like, there's no way all the same teams are going to make the playoffs. That's just not how this works. And then I thought, Dave, you freaking loved Drake May that entire time. You wouldn't

shut the hell up about this guy for like 18 months. And now they've done stuff around him that should give him a shot. Like, why are you afraid to believe Drake May could? And like, it's not like being the 7th seed doesn't mean anything. It probably means they're going to lose by 17 in the first round of the playoffs. That's usually what happens. That's why I picked the Titans. Yes. I was like, whatever. I need a 17 and I just don't feel good about some of the other AFC wildcar teams that stuck in last year, like the Chargers. And so that's why I had the Titans in mind. So my three, I did go with the Broncos. Okay.

I have the Bengals, the Titans, and I picked the Broncos. Okay. So we were similar thought processes for the Bengals and the Titans. The Broncos were right there and I just went for the new team. Yeah. I just don't feel that great about some of the other teams. That's why it was easy for me to make the case for the Titans because the Chargers, the Patriots, some of those other teams are going to be right there in the fringe, the Steelers. It just, I'm not in.

enthusiastic about a lot of those. I think the Patriots could be good and competent this year, but I just, the idea of them winning 10 games is just, it's hard for me to imagine. This has big potential to bite me. I'm not afraid to say that. The only reason I don't think it's that crazy is the, the AFC wildcard is filthy. Like, it is disgusting. With the NFC, I really was like quibbling over like, man, who do I really want to kick out?

Like, kicking out the Rams like hurt. That's why I didn't do it any with any of the teams. I was like, I'm just going to go chalk because I don't feel good about any of this. When the AFC was much easier for me to throw the Titans in there. With the AFC, I just didn't even want to bet on any of these. I put the Bengals in just that feels like a free space. They should probably get in if things go well for them. I picked the other AFC South team almost to just like,

I feel like I'm just going to continue the bit at this point. But if the Jaguars, like if the Jaguar's offense is like the 11th best unit in the league and the defense is like, so I don't think the defense is going to be good, but they do feel like one of those units where just a weird amount of bad vibes were surrounding them last year. And I just can't imagine it'll be that bad. Bad vibes have been synonymous with the Jags for so much of the last. And I said a lot of this stuff last year, which I feel bad about.

So those are my two teams. And then I really, really for the last spot, debated over Denver and Pittsburgh. I ultimately think I kind of want to put Pittsburgh in. I do not feel good about it. I'm the only one to pick the Broncos. Yeah. No, this is making me want to put Denver in playoffs. The Broncos thing runs very counter to what I said about Vance Joseph,

to advance Joseph potentially winning assistant coach of the year because if the defense is that good, they probably get in. But like, it's hard to know if the defense is going to be that good. It's hard to know if the defense will be that good. And also with the Steelers, like I just, I do think if we get to a world where by week 12, it's all completely boomed, it will not be that surprising. But there is some element of the like, until Derek Henry falls off, I'm not going to bet against it that I still hold for Tomlin to some degree.

I've made my Steelers thoughts known through the entire offseason. I want to be clear. I feel gross about that. this. But I think we all feel bad about our 17. I wanted it to be way less chalky than I made it out to be. But as I went through it, I was just like, I don't feel good about any of the surprise teams I would throw on there. I just, this is to me the most logical place to land. And I just am not feeling that spicy when it comes to playoff picks. I just have to keep reminding myself that not even, not even like Burgundy and Gold Times or whoever saw the commanders winning 12 games. Like,

no there like something is going to happen that even the smartest analyst forgot about and that's just what I'm banking on but I feel good the Titans are plus 425 to make the playoffs this year the fact that I'm going to throw the Titans on there I think that's that's plenty good I also again I'm picking a long shot playoff team I'm picking the Titans for the same reason that I'm rolling with the Rams where it's just like I just that will be a more fun season for me is like hoping that Cam Ward can be a new exciting quarterback Dave who do you have in the Super Bowl As much as I overthought the order of all my playoff teams and how they might get there, my Super Bowls as chalk as it gets, Bird Gang, Ravens, Eagles, Lamar Jackson against Philly.

And I just hope we get there. I hope we get a matchup that good. I'm kind of half the same at least. Ravens over Packers to me is like, which again is double one seeds. But that at least in my mind double one seats. But like we have gotten a lot more double one seed Super Bowls recently. So I had the Ravens over the Packers as well. I could easily throw the Eagles in there.

But I think the Ravens are the team that I just think that they're the best team heading into the season. I think that if you look at what the defense did over the second half of last year and you look at what the offense is capable of, I feel like right now on paper, the Ravens are the best team. They finished number one in DVOA last year. Like they have that gear to them. The NFC is just, it was harder for me to like pick a team again that I felt convicted about. I think the Packers do have that sort of ceiling. But if you told me that the Eagles were a 15 win team in the one seat in the NFC again, I would have no trouble believing that. I really, I don't know if they get it done.

Like winning two Super Bowls in a row is so hard. And we've seen better teams than this Eagles team fail to achieve it. But I think, I think this Eagles team could be special. And like the team of the season. And like last year the Eagles didn't really put the league on notice until like halfway through the year. I think, I think this will be a wire to wire sort of situation for Philly where they're that good from beginning to end. and it's just a matter of getting the right breaks in the playoffs. Well, that's all we got.

And all I know is none of us will regret anything that we just said over the past time and a half of this by week two at the latest. But I feel good about it right now. All right. That is officially our last preview-y predictiony show that we are going to do before we get into our regular season cadence. Tomorrow on the athletic football show, we will doing. we'll be doing a week one preview of sorts. You know, we're not going to use the same treatment that we will for our in-season previews.

We did the same thing last year. We're really just going to talk about like 10 or so things that we're excited to watch in week one. A lot of the things that I've, I know my answers are going to be this. A lot of the stuff that we mentioned for teams on it was like, what are we watching the first month of the season? That to me is going to drive like what this week one preview looks like. So it's really just going to be three or four things from every single one,

from all three of us about what we are excited to watch in week one. I hope you guys are excited to watch that show. Things are going to look a little bit different on the athletic football show starting tomorrow. And we are very excited for you guys to take a look at that for the first time. A lot more information about that coming tomorrow. Excited for you guys to all hear about it for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you listening.

We'll talk to you very soon.