The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2025 versions of 2024 stories

Episode Date: July 22, 2025

Take a moment to think about the unexpected developments that helped define the 2024 NFL season. The Washington Commanders going to the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers missing the playoffs entirely. Jared Verse immediately taking the league by storm. Saquon Barkley changing teams and having a season for the ages. Each of those was a huge story last year that was felt across the league. What might be the 2025 versions of those stories? Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman dig into that question on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Hosts: Robert Mays and Derrik KlassenWith: Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Our preview shows are officially here. Training camp is here. So we are beginning to look forward to the 2025 season. David Hellman and Derek Classen joined me for an exercise that I love doing pretty much every single year. I think it's a fun way to frame what we might expect from the upcoming year. We dug into the 2025 versions of 2024 things today. What that means is that we picked some of the biggest stories, personalities, characters, teams from the 2024 season and tried to predict who this year's version of those things would be. We kicked it off with Washington coming out of nowhere to go to the NFC championship game. Who is this year's version of that team? Who's this year's version of Jared

Verst? Who's this year's version of Zach Bonn? Really enjoyed this conversation with David and Derek. Let's get to it right now. It is July 21st. We are a couple days away from training camp practices is actually kicking off for a vast majority of the league. And now I finally feel comfortable kicking off the preview content on the athletic football show. Derek, if people pay attention, they can notice that throughout all of June, I refuse to do shows that are looking forward to the season. I just feel like we have such a long time from the end of July until Labor Day

that I feel like William Wallace and Braveheart, where I just have like the hole going until we get to this moment, we can officially release the dogs now. We are here. It is time to start looking forward to this upcoming season. Yeah. And for the people watching the video, if they'll notice, you are not in your typical office. You're recording this from your hotel room.

So you definitely are not lying to us that we waited all the way until the training camp tour to get things going. And I kind of like that for our first real look forward, we're fully just taking like shotgun approach. Like just eight, like 30 different categories. We're just going to see what sticks and see where we can go with it. We probably could have done every single one of these as their own separate show, David. But we're trying to get a lot of this stuff out in one fell swoop.

Yeah, I'm just going to continue the Braveheart analogy because I love it so much. Like the horses hit the sharpened tree poles. And now we're just like there's highlights coming at us from every direction. We're going to throw out like three dozen names and a dozen different teams today. Like it's fast and furious. It's like the fog of war. I love that analogy. a lot because it's been this slow, painful buildup, and I just feel like we're about to throw

everything out there at once. It's great. We're kind of bridging last season and this season with this execution that we're trying to do today. This is an exercise I love doing most years. I think we've done it most years on the show. I know Barnwell writes a version of this pretty much every single year. And I think it's a useful framing device for what we might expect from the upcoming season. So what we're going to do today is we're going to take like eight central storyline, central characters from what the 2024 season was and try to predict who this year's version of that person or team might be.

Because when we think back in the 2024 season, there are certain teams, certain players that we're going to remember as kind of defining that year. So now we're taking that group and trying to project what this season might be defined by as we figure out the main characters, the main teams, the main things that we'll remember, Derek, when the 2025 season is over. Yeah, I'm excited to get to a lot of these, because there were a couple that immediately I had an answer for,

and then there were a couple I had to stew over, look at rosters again, look at some over and unders, and really actually think about it. So it was a good mix of stuff I really had to think about and stuff that if we had just, like, randomly flipped on a mic at any point in the day, I could have probably had answers for. Let's dig into it.

we are starting with who is this year's version of the Washington commanders. I did say that. I'm going to continue to say that because there's a certain company I'm not interested in keeping. And we're going to say Washington commanders on this show moving forward. No reason in particular, nothing has happened over the last couple of days that would make me feel like it's time to change my stance on this. But from here on out, we're going with Washington commanders on the athletic football show. Good time to finish. Watershed moment. Yeah. Yeah.

Obviously, the Washington commanders defined that season in a huge way. This is the team that came out of absolutely nowhere. I remember we did our teams draft and we had to pick two teams that were picked to finish either six and a half wins or less and they're over under. And Derek started that conversation by saying the one team I won't pick here is Washington and then they went to the NFC championship game. So David, But I'll let you kick this off here. Who do you think is the team pick to finish, let's say in the bottom six or seven when you look at preseason win totals and has a chance to be a playoff team in 2025? I just want to, I'll stand up for Derek for a second and say like if you genuinely thought the commanders were a double digit win team at this time last year, you own a pig snout mask that is like hanging on your dresser or something like that.

So it happens. But that's that's what makes this so fun. is you look at this stuff from the time free agents start signing, even before the draft, like when rosters start coming together, you start sort of daydreaming about this stuff. And typically, the goal is leaps that makes sense. You know, like we've talked a lot about the Patriots this year. Like the Patriots, I, in my opinion, don't make sense for an exercise like this. Like if we're really looking for the Washington commanders, you're looking for a team that doesn't make as much sense.

It's like people are going to think you're crazy if you say it. So I think that eliminates a lot of teams that we're talking about as being hopefuls. And it's why I landed on the Carolina Panthers. And when I look for a team like this for this exercise, again, I'm looking at teams that I think objectively, you would say, are in the bottom tier of their division. Teams that picked near the top of the draft last year, the commanders, or excuse me, the commanders, the Panthers, fill all of these needs for a team like this for a variety of reasons. But in my opinion, there's a lot of reason for optimism, right? I mean, we can talk about the Bryce Young flip last season, second half of the year. He was 30th in EPA for dropback for the season. Like, even with

his jump, we're still talking about a quarterback who struggled a lot, but was in the middle of the pack over that very magical second half of the season where the Panthers were a weekly pain in the ass for good football teams, mind you, whether it's the chiefs, whether it's the Eagles, every single week. It was like, oh, let's see who Bryce Young is going to annoy the hell out of this week. And you take that and you upgraded it in a variety of different ways. Guys, the Carolina Panthers have 2,000-yard running backs now. The Carolina Panthers have- Okay, hold on. They do. That is an objective fact. Yeah, that's technically true. this is where we're starting to get it to the silly part of the argument, which I love.

Am I trying to sell you or not? Like, that is the whole point. You, there's just, there's a lot of talent. I feel like, I'm like a used car salesman. Like, look at all the furniture. You can fit in the back of this thing. Don't worry about it. No, I love the upgrades on the offensive side of the ball.

I love, you know, Ted McMillan just bumps everybody down a notch. So yeah, like Adam Thielen's going to run out of gas at some point. but if he's not the best receiver on your team anymore, you can work with that. Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdell are not getting anybody excited, but that is still a very competent thousand yard backfield. I'm going to keep saying that because I just feel like it emphasizes my point. And another thing I want to mention before I throw it to y'all is

I love when a team at, like when their additions very specifically address a need. Maybe you heard the Carolina Panthers were the worst. defense in the NFL last year. I was looking up stats for this show. If you look at their run defense stats, it is just a horror show of things you didn't even know were possible. The Carolina Panthers allowed 3,000 rushing yards. They allowed 179 rushing first downs, which is 30 more than the next worst.

They allowed 83 explosive runs on the year, guys. They allowed 1,200 yards before contact and 1,800 yards out. after contact. I'm not really sure what's worse. So what did they do? They just went out and signed a bunch of dudes who can help them defend the run. Like Bobby Brown, Patrick Jones, obviously Derek Brown returning to the lineup is going to be a big part of that. But it really felt like everything the Panthers did in March was basically saying, we might not be great, but we're not going to be the worst run defense in the NFL anymore. So I just think the Panthers raised their floor oh so slightly and if Bryce Young can continue this fun trajectory that he was on in the

second half of last year, maybe, maybe this is like a 10-win team. I don't know. I don't think it's that far-fetched. I don't think it's crazy at all. I think it's absolutely in the realm of possibility that they're like the surprise wild car team. And I think that's because I believe in a lot of the things that Bryce Young did in the second half of last season. I think that there are obviously still limitations. Derek and I go different ways on this. Derek thinks that that Bryce Young was living on the edge in the back half of last year. And he actually got lucky more often than not. I actually think the receiving core let him down to such an extent and so consistently that even if some of those dangerous throws, some of those high wire act throws,

maybe a couple more of them get picked off this year. I still feel like having somebody like Tyroa McMillan, having Xavier Legat in year two, I do feel like some of the flashes that we saw from Bryce Young, we can see even more of them if the receiving core is better. So it depends on what you think of the offense and how sustainable you think some of those flashes were. If you're in my boat and you think they are, it goes to what you believe in the defense. And we've seen this before. You need homegrown stars to be an elite defense or even a good defense year over year.

But if you throw a ton of money at the problem, you can have a short-term bounce from absolutely putrid to acceptable. and I do think that might be the place that the Panthers are in. Derek, I think you can make a really serious argument that last year, the Carolina Panthers defense is like one of the least talented units I have ever watched for an entire year on an NFL field. Derek Brown was by far their best front seven player, like by far. And then he misses the entire year.

And so now you go get Trevin Merrick, you sign to Sean Wharton, you sign Bobby Brown. Pat Jones is your third rusher now, hopefully, because of the guys that you drafted. I just feel like they spent so much to get to an acceptable place from a talent perspective that if this is like the 18th best defense in the league and the offense can continue on the trajectory it showed in the second half of last season, them being in the mix to be a playoff team, I do not think is a crazy thing to say. I kind of agree with a lot of the floor raising stuff that they did here. I just struggled to see the ceiling, I think, for like an 11 win, like a 1011 win team that

walks in. Because to me, a lot of that is obviously going to boil down to the quarterback. And I just, even if I think Bryce Young can be an acceptable quarterback, I don't see the ceiling of like a Jaden Daniels or the quarterback of the team that I'm probably going to talk about. So it's just, I think that's kind of where I struggle. And even beyond the quarterback, who is the Panthers best player? It's probably Derek Brown, right? Derek Brown and J.C. Horn.

And J.C. Horn. Yeah. To me, that doesn't feel like enough firepower for like an 11 win team. I think that's probably fair. I think it's an 11 win team if they get fairly lucky. when it comes to the wins and losses. To be fair, Washington did. They won like four really dumb games.

That is, and that's a big part of this too. I've talked to Robert about this. For exercises like this, and ironically, the commanders played in a division with the Eagles, but I'm looking for a team in a manageable division that probably has a manageable schedule. You play in the NFC South. I think you have a leg up on a lot of other teams that would be in this situation. And the Panthers' schedule is fairly forgiving as well, at least on paper. I know that's hard to project, but this doesn't look like a murderer's row to me.

And I just, yeah, will this be a team that we, like, truly believe in if they win 10 games? Probably not. But is anybody in Charlotte going to care if they get to the playoffs? Derek, you alluded to your team here. And I think if I had to pick one and we didn't want to all pick the same team, this is probably where I would have landed as well. and I do think there are a lot of signals to potentially pick up on as this being the choice. Who is your team to be this year's version of the commanders? Yeah, I get the low hanging fruit.

It's the team that took a quarterback first overall. It's the Tennessee Titans. And I think it's very easy to start with the offense, right? Like obviously, you bring in a quarterback like Cam Ward. And it's not just that you took, you know, first overall pick, all that stuff. Cam Ward does play with a style that's so aggressive, so creative, has so much flare and firepower to it that if he hits, he could have something akin to like maybe not as good as jaden Daniels but like a Dak Prescott level Justin Herbert level rookie year where it's like oh this dude is clearly

helping us change things I also again we've talked about this before the more I look at the offensive line the more I kind of buy it you know J.C. Latham getting to move back to his side and even I thought he was a better left tackle like when I watched him after the season that it felt like during the season so I kind of like what they I appreciate what they're trying to do at the interior so I believe in that obviously getting another year. I think with Callahan is really going to help. And we talked about it. We did a show, Robert.

I think Brian Callahan's offense is like kind of good. And so if Cam Ward can take to it really well, I think they'll be exciting there. And then I talked about this a number of times last season. I think their defense is incredibly well coached. There's definitely some questions I have with the secondary. Like maybe that sinks them. But the front is really good. Like Jeffrey Simmons is one of the best defensive tackles in the league.

Defarnda Sweat was really good last year. So I, again, you do have to squint with all of these teams. But if Cam Ward hits and the defense plays at relatively, the same level, like an average unit, you've got something. Yeah, the defensive side of the ball, I still worried about the ed rushing depth and just where they're going to get past rush from. But generally, I tend to agree. Donald Wilson is somebody that I was excited about heading into last season, and I do think

that he did a really solid job. And I think the argument for Cam Ward is easy to make. Like, how do these teams happen? How do these teams sneak up on us and drafting a quarterback in the top five and having that quarterback be really good? Two years in a row has been the answer. It was Washington last year, and it was the Texans the year before with C.J. Stroud. And so I think picking up on the next version of that makes sense.

Even beyond the quarterback, though, the offensive line is where I start to get excited about what this team can accomplish. And people are going to look at the Dan Moore contract. We've talked about it a lot this offseason as an overpay. I think it's possible that the guy they just paid $20 million a year to be their left tackle can be the fifth best starter on their offensive line. I agree with that. I agree with that.

And if that's the case, you feel. pretty good about that sort of unit. They missed Cushingberry for a huge portion of last season at center. Peter Skoransky really started to come into his own in the back half of last year. And now you put him next to Cushingberry and a solid left tackle. I think you feel a little bit better about what he can even become. Zytler, if he keeps being an ageless wander, he played good football last year. And J.C. Latham moving back to his natural position, there is a real chance that your left

tackle, you just signed to a ton of money in free agency as the fifth best player on your line. And if that's the case, you feel pretty good about that unit. So I think it's very easy to get behind what the Titans can be if Cam Ward ends up becoming a difference maker early on. And I think he has the profile to be that sort of player if you think about what he did in college last year and some of the tools that he's bringing to the table. If anything, I just want to preemptively, I almost feel like I should preemptively apologize to Cam Ward because I'm not squinting.

I don't want to say I expect it. But like what the Titans have put together, they should be a feisty team if Cam Ward is ready to go. Like if he's a good player from the get-go and he lives up to the billing of being a number one overall pick, this is a feisty team in a weaker division. Like it's not hard for me to imagine the Titans giving people fits. I mean, Caleb Williams kind of ruined this for people because we spent so much time talking about how good the supporting cast was in Chicago. and obviously it didn't go very well. But this is a surprisingly good supporting cast for a team picking number one overall. Like they spend all that money to try to help Will Levis out and Cam Ward is going to benefit from that.

Like this is a supporting cast capable of winning eight plus games if he's a difference maker. And it sucks to put that level of expectation on him, but we've seen previous quarterbacks do the same with less, in my opinion. The problem is with the Bears, independent of the roster talent, you don't know with a new play call or what structurally the offense is going to look like. And we learned very early on that there was no bottom to what the Bears could be. Like this was a team that easily could bottom out based on the structure of the offense. And even if we have some concerns about the ceiling of the Titans offense with Brian Calhahan, I think that they established that it's a grown-up operation.

You look at some of their offensive numbers last year and they were bad. but this is a team that just got like unbelievably unlucky in so many areas. Derek and I talked about it earlier this spring. Like you're losing the most EPA in the league on sacks, turnovers, botched snaps. Like everything about this team, they just shot themselves in the foot over and over and over again. But when it comes to the structure of the offense and the past protection specifically,

like independent of the offensive line talent, I think having somebody like Bill Callahan, you set yourself a floor for how far you can bottom out. and that's why I feel like even if all of the pieces don't necessarily come together from a personnel perspective, I feel good about how bad this could potentially be in Tennessee compared to a situation like Chicago. All right. My answer for this one, I think there's like seven teams that have six and a half wins or fewer if you look at Vegas. You guys picked two of them. The third one I would throw out there is it's the Raiders.

And we talked about this a little bit earlier this spring, Derek. The collective upgrade at head coach and quarterback going to Pete Carroll, and Gino Smith, and then you throw Chip Kelly into the mix, there's enough there. There are enough ingredients in that stew for me to feel okay about this team taking a huge jump forward. Certain elements of the defensive depth chart, like make me wake up in a cold sweat,

like what's going on in a cornerback room and just certain elements of what they've done this offseason. But let's just say Darian Porter is good for you from the beginning. He's a rookie that is competent from day one. Let's say Eric Stoke stays healthy, and you get lucky in a couple areas of the roster. And then Gino plus Chip Kelly, plus a young, potentially ascending offensive line is enough

with that strange but interesting collection of weapons for this to be an objectively good offense from day one. They play in a brutal division. And so obviously it's a little bit tougher of a road for them compared to a team like the Titans or the Panthers. But I still feel like there is a chance the Raiders after looking completely inept for most of last year on offense look like a very put-together unit from the start. and really surprise some people.

My thing with them is that, I mean, I agree. Like they were, I did like a short list and the Raiders would have been my second team. So I completely agree with all of this. I think they're, because obviously with some of the other teams, you know, Dave mentions the Panthers. I mentioned the Titans. It's like young quarterback is kind of central to taking this leap. And that's not really the case with the Raiders.

That's not supposed to be their superpower. We just think Gino Smith in a new spot will be useful. I also think them having the kind of unique, combination of Ashton Genti and Brock Bowers as like your pivot points on offense, it's just going to make them a headache to play. Like there's just not a lot of teams built like that. And when you're trying to be that, you know, seven-ish win team that somehow squeezes out 10, being a weird team to play and game plan for is one of those little things that can help you out.

We talked about the comparison we made consistently was to the Alex Smith, Andy Reed, chiefs. Like, I think that is a potential place to look when it comes to what this team could look like. And obviously, Andy Reid is the offensive. play caller, you're bringing a level of certainty to that role when he's coming with you. But we'll talk about Chip Kelly a little bit later. Like, I'm holding out hope that Chip Kelly can be a Todd Monkin-esque play caller in year one. And if that's the case, I think there are a lot of parallels between those chiefs teams and

this Raiders team that we're going to look at this year. It's tempting to write the Raiders off because they share a division with the chiefs. But that makes them even better for this category. Because, like, I mean, again, the commanders just did this. sharing a division with the eventual Super Bowl champions. So give me all the like the less sense it makes, the better it is. And I refuse to write off like Gino, Ashton Genty and Brock Bowers. I mean, there aren't many trios that I'm more excited to watch than those guys.

Like, yeah, I'm so excited to see this iteration of the Raiders. Yeah, I don't know what like the ceiling for that offense is. I don't care if it's the seventh best offense. I don't care if it's the 13th. I know in terms of the when I wake up on Tuesday morning, who do I want to watch? it's going to be that team. I was going to say the Raiders feel like a team where, the Raiders feel like a team where like no matter the record,

we're going to be like, yeah, but check this shit out. Exactly. Yes, they're going to be that too. I mean, that's just the Gino Smith experience. All right. Let's get to the next one here. This might be the hardest one because if it were easy to pick out who this would be, he probably would have gotten paid more in free agency this spring.

But let's try to figure out who's this year's Zach Bonn. And you can define this a bunch of different ways. The way that I did it is, who is somebody that got a short-term, cheap contract and free agency that was kind of a bargain basement deal that we think could assert themselves as like a star level player. It doesn't have to be an all-pro like Zach Bond was a year ago, but somebody that coming out of this season is going to get rewarded with a market type of deal because of what he put on the field this year. Derek, why don't you kick us off? Yeah, even though we, you know, we're naming it the Zach Bonn Award. It obviously didn't have to be a linebacker. But me being me, I'm going to be a caricature of myself and pick a linebacker.

Jack Sanborn, who I've mentioned on the show. It's a great word of times. I love that. Because so the Dallas Cowboys signed him this offseason two. Again, it was a one year, I think, $1.5 million deal. So he's making nothing. But Damarian Oversone is not going to play this year because of the injury that he suffered at the end of last year. And so Kenneth Murray is going to be one of their starting linebackers.

And then next to Kenneth Murray, it's like, it's either Sanborn or Maris Lufau. And I don't think Maris Lufau played well enough for me to consider him like he's going to take the job over Sanborn. Sanborn obviously has the advantage of having played in Matt Ibrufu's defense last year or for the last handful of years. He played really well when they needed to, when they needed him to in Chicago, either as a third linebacker or just at various points when some of the guys were injured. So I know he had kind of gotten overshadowed in Chicago, obviously, because they paid T.J. Edwards, paid Tremade Edmins because they wanted. a little more pop, and he doesn't necessarily have that. But Sanborn, to me, is just like he understands how to play the position at a very high level, which I think is for a Cowboys defense that has had a lot of dudes just kind of running around everywhere,

I think he's going to be really, really helpful for them. This is a archetype of player that I also think this can happen with every once in a while. A good example to me is, like, Drew Tranquil a couple years ago. Where Drew Tranquo comes in, he's a third linebacker, he signs for Peanuts with the Chiefs, ends up really hitting his stride as part of that defense. then gets a bigger deal to now be like a more central piece to who that team is. So I feel like we've seen this every once in a while with rotational linebackers. And the other part of it is with players like this, it's why were they available at that price?

Why didn't their previous team retain them? It's because the Bears have spent an astronomical amount of money on their two starting linebackers and they didn't need to pay a third one. So I feel like there are a lot of dots you can connect about why Jack Sandborn could be this type of player. one of my favorite little football things is when an established coach gets somewhere new and immediately identifies like a guy who can do what he wants and that's exactly what sandborn feels like for matt eberfluse where it's like it's not a flashy signing not even guaranteed to be a starter but mad eberflus got back to dallas and was like i want this guy

like he knows what i want he can run what i want him to he's got a nose for the football and it It's one of those culture-type signings where he's like, this dude can be like on the ground floor of what we want to do. And guys like that have a way of making it to the field regardless of, you know, as long as there's nobody in front of him making a lot more money, which in Dallas there is not. I think that is a fantastic call. I think he's, I hate to compare him to Sean Lee. But like he's that heady type of player. Mattie Bufluse worked with Sean Lee for a long time. I think that just makes a hell of a lot of sense.

who's yours for this one david this year's Zach Warren in your opinion i'm worried y'all are going to accuse me of cheating because my guy he did get paid some money in free agency he got eight million it's low enough it's low enough if you look at an actual contract i think is like two years 11 million dollars for the guy you're about to say and so i think that's in a low enough tier that he applies to this conversation i looked it up just to double check he's 48th in contract size among cornerbacks and he's 46th in guaranteed money. That would be new Vikings cornerback Isaiah Rogers, who like that that's not nothing, but it's certainly not top tier cornerback money.

He's one of the lower paid veteran corners who is expected to have a starting job. But I just love the guy. I don't really remember when he popped up on my radar. It's funny, he's only made 13 starts in his five-year career. and 10 of those starts came before he got suspended for violating the gambling policy. But he was such a fun piece of the Eagles defense last year. You know, they called him in to start a few times. He was on the field a lot regardless.

Like, he got plenty of snaps even when Darius, even when Darius Slay was available. But he just was reliably there doing his job on one side of the field and just like taking that threat away. Maybe you hesitate to call him a lockdown cornerback. but you can go pull up tape of him running step for step with Jamar Chase. He had a beautiful PbU on Jamar Chase in the Bengals game that led to a Chauncey Gardner Interception. He was phenomenal when he did get a chance to start against good receivers. I mean, going against guys like Brian Thomas Jr., going against an offense like Baltimore's,

and holding up well. He had a key fumble recovery in the divisional round against the Rams. You probably remember that big play. I think it led to Eagles points at. some point in that game. And now he goes to Minnesota where he can just camp out. I feel like he's going to be just, he's going to be like the only normal thing about Brian Flores's defense, kind of like Stefan Gilmore, where he's just like, hey, if you can just hang out over here and handle your guy and let me get goofy with everybody else, then it's going to pay dividends for our defense. And that's

sort of what I have in mind. I don't know if he's going to put up gaudy stats, but I think on a defense that we expect to be good on a team that could contend for the playoffs. And with him in the lineup every day, because he was not a regular starter for Philly, I just feel like a lot of people that might not know his name right now will know it by January. He was on my short list. So I think that's a really good call. If he can just be refreshed, re-energized version of Sifon Gilmore than it's a win. He was somebody I was considering for another category, just because it does feel like him getting put into this,

sort of situation in a defense where I do think they help the corners out just by virtue of how much they speed up the quarterback. Like the challenges you have as a cornerback in this defense are just different than they are in a lot of other defenses. And he's shown some real flashes. It's just been a very strange career for Isaiah Rogers up to this point. Like he's a part-time starter. He showed a lot of flashes in like 2022.

I think he had like seven passes defense that year. Excuse me, go back a year. It was 21 and 22. And then he missed the entire 20-23 season because he was suspended for gambling. And then he's available for nothing last year with the Eagles, but you still saw some of those flashes. So now he's stepping into a presumed starting role, really for the first time in his entire career in a defense where I think they really do a good job of setting up those corners to

succeed. So he's one I absolutely had on my short list for a couple different ones because sometimes you see this. Guys change situations. They change environments. And we see different versions of that player. And I think Isaiah Rogers has the potential to be one of those guys. All right.

my last one here. This is somebody that it's a little bit different, right? This is a different set of considerations because with Zach Bonn, it was about deployment. It was about how he was used. For the guy I'm going to pick here, it's all about health. He's just missed a ton of games over the last couple of years. But I'm going with Efei Melfone with the center or the safety for the dolphins. He has just had so many flashes over the last couple years.

As a pass rusher, he's an excellent athlete. They signed him for one year, four million bucks. And I really do think that if he can stay healthy for an extended period of time in a defense where he's going to be relied on as a starter, I mean, think about just how crowded the Lion's safety room has been over the last couple of years, even when he was healthy. He had Kirby Joseph, C.J. Gardner Johnson, a couple years ago, even though he missed most of the year. Brian Branch last year, they had a Meek Robertson step in and was able to play corner, so Branch played a little bit more safety.

Like, there wasn't a ton of opportunity for him to be a locked-in starter, even when he was on the field for Detroit. Now, go look at the dolphin safety depth chart. They're going to need him to play. So I think that him getting the opportunity and just the tools that we've seen from him, Derek, if he can stay healthy for an entire season, I would not be surprised at all if he was somebody that got rewarded with a decent deal after this season based on, again, just some of the flashes we've seen the last few years. Yeah, Melifanu, funny enough, was also on my short list. For all the reasons that you just brought up. It's, again, almost like the Sanborn thing where they're just, Detroit had pumped so many resources into trying to just create competition at safety that

because of some of the injuries that he had, he just kind of ended up falling by the wayside. But again, when he's had to play, I think he's shown some really, really good flashes. And I think Anthony Weaver has been a pretty interesting coordinator for the, for the dolphins. And I kind of expect him to be able to use a piece like Melifonu a little bit all over the field. So him being at this point, probably their best athletes, certainly at safety, but maybe in the DB room entirely, I think they could do some really interesting stuff with him. I mean, just think about where Anthony Weaver came from before that.

He was in Baltimore for two years with Mike McDonald. You had a safety that had a varied skill set that they weaponized in Baltimore pretty well. And I'm not saying Yifameo Phonwu is Kyle Hamilton, but I do think that you can use him in a variety of ways. And he's the type of weapon that I'm very curious to see if he can play 16, 17 games, what a full season from him could look like. this just makes me take more stock of what Zach Bond did. Because like all three of these guys could be good pieces of good teams and get paid very

handsomely in the future. But will they be first team all pro playing like a badass in a Super Bowl? I just, I tend to doubt we're ever going to see that again, or at least not for a long time. But yeah, I like all of these guys to be successful for sure. All right. we're going to take our first quick break and get back with a few more of these. The last two were positive. This one on the other side of the spectrum here, who is this year's version of the Texans offense?

The unit that is projected to be great that we expect to take a step forward that ultimately turns into a disappointing group over the course of the year. Dave, why don't you kick this off? Who is this year's version of the Houston Texans offense? Let me just say I don't want this to be true. But Robert, you scared me during the sixth best quarterback episode that we did a while back. I started thinking about it and I got kind of nervous about the L.A. Rams because the version that we daydream about could be one of the most fun offenses in the NFL, right? And like we, as football fans, we all want to see that.

But then you're doing research for a show and you realize that Allerick Jackson's dealing with blood clots and like his availability. already in question and the Rams have signed DJ Humphreys who could potentially have to play left tackle for them, which that's not the end of the world, although DJ Humphreys wasn't good enough to keep Joe Tuny from moving out to left tackle for the chiefs. And then you think about the fact that Rob Havenstein is 33 years old and he's missed time over the last few years, including six games off last year. You think about how old Matthew Stafford is. You think about Devante Adams being 32 and being on his third team in the last calendar year. And you can't say it would be a shock if this thing goes in the tank.

And I don't want that to happen. But the Rams, even in the years where they've been good, right? Like even in the last two seasons, they have had stretches at the beginning of the year where it's like, holy shit, this looks like minor league football. Like they don't have enough guys to field a competent offensive line. It's easy to imagine that is all I'm saying. I hope I'm wrong, but there is a world where the Rams offense just falls apart. And it's not that hard to imagine, I don't think.

I hate this because I think this is the thing I least want to happen next year. Because I mean, how cool is Matthew Stafford? And I can't disagree with anything he said. That's the problem is I think it's a very cogent well put together set of arguments as to how this could happen. Every single one of them is legitimate. I just choose to ignore the fact that they're possible. Yeah, I choose to ignore it. And you know what's funny?

I feel like we chose to ignore like the quality of them last year. Like the Rams offense wasn't that good last year. Like they turned it on towards the end and they got to the playoffs and they played well in the playoffs. But like as a rushing unit, they could get you 3.9 yards as consistently as anybody. They were pretty useless beyond that. And that I think created a lot of volatility in the way that the passing game worked. And I know that we want to say that the offensive line's going to be better. But if again, left tackles dealing with some health stuff, right tackle is getting.

old and the center like all they did was sign Coleman Shelton. I don't know if that's going to necessarily jumpstart what they want along the interior. It is a lot more feeble than I wanted to. It's one of those things where like if everyone is healthy enough and they're the seventh most healthy offense in the league, it'll probably be fine. But you look at all of the guys and it's like, well, you could pretty easily imagine them being the 25th most healthy offense and like nothing even crazy happened. I mean, the left tackle already isn't going to play at the start of the season.

I mean, and so the fact that that's how we're starting here. And with some offenses, we've talked about this. Maybe they're better set up to insulate themselves from losing somebody like that. The Rams with Matthew Stafford, I think it's getting to be a particularly fragile situation on offense because he's just not quite as mobile in the pocket as he used to be. And I think that his play is so directly correlated with the quality of the past protection that if you start to chip away at the past protection, I think this thing gets a little bit more volatile than you want it to be pretty quickly.

And then you combine that with every single person that looked at the Devante Adams signing that I have heard from since it happened is excited about what this could be. And we think about the archetype or receiver that he is and the skill set that this team was missing. It makes perfect sense. Do not go look at the history of 32-year-old receivers changing teams. It is a graveyard. And I want to believe that this can be different. But there are a lot of historical benchmarks that would tell you. this is a dangerous situation.

So I think there are a lot of things stacking up against the Rams. I think they'll be okay. But the path that David laid out, it is not difficult to imagine them falling down that path at some point this year. I'm just going to keep sitting here and telling myself that Devante Adams' game. Graces ages very gracefully, and that's it. All right, Derek, let's stick in the NFC West with yours. Who do you think could be this year's version of the Houston Texans office?

offense. This one also pains me. I didn't want to put this one either, but I kind of think it might be the Cardinals offense, man. I just, we talked about how much of a frustrating unit they were last year with just some of the ups and downs, run game not showing up against really good teams when it had normally been like the linchpin of their offense against medium to lesser teams and stuff like that.

There was just a lot of volatility in the offense. And I think the initial inclination is to be like, oh, well, another year in the offense, the younger players like Marvin Harrison Jr., everyone's going to take a step and it'll be fine. But they added literally nothing on offense. Their additions were like a backup guard in Royce Newman and Jacoby Percet. Like that's, so there's no really room for growth if that makes sense outside of like Drew

Petting really just taking a huge leap as a play caller, which could happen. But I get questions there because Clayton Adams, their run game coordinator nerd offensive line coach, is now in Dallas. And that was the most important to me and most interesting part of their offense. So I just think that when I looked at this, you didn't add anything that suggests new growth from the starters.

And you lost, I think, one of your best coaches on the staff. So there's just a chance that instead of being, you know, the eighth best offense, but being kind of inconsistent week to week like they were last year, I think it's pretty likely they're just like the 17th best offense next year. And they just feel flat. You really think they could fall off that much? I think it could happen.

Like unless Marvin Harrison Jr. really takes the step we want him to, which is entirely possible. I still think he's a really good player, but Michael Wilson's a role player and their number three receiver is maybe Zay Jones who battled a lot of injury last year. And like outside of Paris Johnson,

I just don't know if they have a difference making offensive linemen. And even he is like, I think he's a nice left tackle. I think he's yet to prove that he's like a pro bowl, really one of those dudes left tackle. I just, it all feels,

it feels like last year they got away with the offensive line. And I think now that Adams is out of the building, I get a little bit, scared that they can do that again. I think that Adams point is a fair one. I think that you could build in enough development from the young players combined with them getting a couple pieces back, right? Like Jonah Williams not playing for the majority of last season. And Jonah Williams giving you acceptable right tackle play. Paris Johnson taking a step forward and becoming like, I don't know,

let's say, let's be a little bit ambitious and say he becomes like a top 10 left tackle this year, like a top eight sort of left tackle, which I think is absolutely in the cards for somebody like with his talent level heading into year three. And Marvin Harrison does take that step forward. And some of the frustrating lack of tweaks that we saw from the Cardinals this year, they incorporate some more of them. I'm with you. And anytime a team doesn't add talent or add almost any pieces in a given off season, it does worry me a little bit. But I think there are enough small things that could happen in-house, including just better health along the offensive line, where we could see a version of this team that is one step better than they were a year ago.

I just like to imagine Moni Austin for the general manager in Arizona listening to a conversation like this. And it must be maddening because all last year, it was like, look, you did what you needed to do on the offensive side of the ball. Now it's all about defense. Like you got to invest in the defense the way that you invested in the offense. And that's exactly what he did. And I'm still mad about it. And a lot of people. people are, where it's like, okay, but you didn't do anything. You didn't do anything to help the offense. Like at the bare minimum, I thought you might sign, you know, some, some veteran starters, or at least get somebody who can play a role. And honestly, it makes perfect sense to just

expect the, you know, the very, very good players you drafted. Like, it makes sense to expect Marvin Harrison to ascend. It makes sense to expect Trey Benson to do more in year two than he did as a rookie, but I still look at it and I'm like, ah, you couldn't, you couldn't make like two moves on offense for me. Like, you couldn't do anything. It was all defense. And so that, that does worry me. But if, if they're right about all of these guys, like if all of these guys ascend at the same time, or at least a couple key ones, then it could be all right. But I get nervous when you don't do anything to an entire side of the football. You look at the moves that they made. I don't even, it would be if they made one of the move on offense.

If like the third round pick they spent on Jordan Byrd, and I don't know who was available, and this is all theoretical anyway, but if the third round pick they used on Jordan Burr should be an interior offensive lineman, or instead of signing Dalman Tomlinson and Callais Campbell, the money for one of those guys had been allocated to an interior offensive lineman, just like one more piece on offense,

like either a coverage lifting receiver or some sort of interior presence, and I would feel a lot better than I do, which is probably silly. Like it probably wouldn't make that much of a difference. But just one of those two pieces to kind of make things feel a little bit different, I'd probably be sleeping a little bit easier than I am. But you'd have at least one thing that you could sell yourself on like the new, the flash, the whatever.

And instead we're just saying, ah, we hope they're in-house scouting of their own players is good enough. I don't know. Have you ever had a job where you were understaffed and or like, you know, like you lost somebody maybe in the middle of football season or, like for a big project and the and you buckled down and you did it and like you were really proud of yourself and then management was like okay great so this is the new normal like this is so now you guys

can do this every time like that's how it feels when you get through it yeah like drew petzing is like okay man i know we needed the help on defense but damn like something something would be nice instead of again like i you know i don't think Marvin harrison has reached his ceiling by any means but to sit there and be like, okay, we need like four different guys to all progress at the same time. It gets dicey. It makes me nervous. Yes, I have felt like that before. Yes, I have had that experience before.

So I do understand what's happening to Drew Petting right now. My last one here, I think there's certain echoes of the Rams conversation and the one that we're about to talk about. But it's the Bucks. Like I feel like the Bucks offense has such a high ceiling. But I think you could also poke some holes. in the case for them being a really good unit. And so I don't think they'll be this year's Texans, but if I'm picking a third team here,

you're going into the season with one of the best players in the league, your left tackle on the Pup list. There's a good chance he misses the first month of the year, potentially more. What does he look like when he comes back? So that's a starting point. Chris Godwin also is coming off of a major injury. So if he comes back a little bit slow

and you could talk yourself into Mecca, Abuka, really taking over that role while Godwin gets back healthy, but he's a rookie. you know, who knows. It feels like he has a higher floor than almost any other rookie receiver you could drop into this offense, but there's always a little bit of uncertainty there. And then you combine that with switching over play callers. I think there's enough of a backstop on two different levels with this offense.

The talent level purely overall, even with outwurfs for a chunk of the year, even with Godwin Hurt, I think there's still enough talent on this offense to carry them, even if the offensive coordinator spot is a little uneven at the beginning. And then the fact that other pieces of the staff are still in place. it's not like they're replacing the whole offensive staff. You have your offensive line coach and run game coordinator back. So much of what they were last year on offense was tied into some of the creativity in the run game. So there's enough carryover from what they were last year to this year that I still feel good about what this group is going to be.

But I think there are just one or two lingering things that you could make a case. This is a year where they take actually a small step backwards rather than maintaining who they were under Liam Cohen. there's a chance to me that I struggled to see them being bad right like the way the Texans were obviously like incredibly bad and I don't think we expect any of these units to fall that far really I think they're too talented to fall that far but if you know last year they were the sixth best offense and you could win games because your offense could score 35 I think there's a good chance that like if worse isn't you know it doesn't come back right and maybe Godwin doesn't come back right maybe a mecca Buka isn't quite as as sexy of a player as we want him to be, then they could be only the 12th best offense, which is good, but you're not winning games consistently because of that kind of offense. I do think it's interesting. It's hard for me to imagine the Bucks offense being bad from a pure talent standpoint, but Todd Bowles has hit two home runs with his play caller hires in a row. And I mean, what are the odds that you do it that many times in a row and that that many

first time guys who are learning on the job hit it out of the park. I mean, Todd Bull's last two hires at this job are head coaches now. Like, can you keep doing that at that level? And if you don't, what's it look like? Like, are they going to be awful? I'd be surprised, but they could be mid if the play calling's not off to snuff or if the design of the offense isn't as good as what we've seen. Like that's easy to imagine if this hire is not as good as the other two.

That's kind of where I sit with it. And the personnel is better than it was in 2020. And I think that's absolutely worth pointing out. But in 2020, this team was 18th and weighted offensive DVOA. I don't think they're going to be like 25th or 26 like the Texans were last year. But if they went from the top five or top three, I think they finished third or fourth last season to 14th or 15th, I think that applies to the conversation that we're having here.

And even if I think I'd be a little bit surprised, I do think that there is a version of this season where they experience that sort of step back. All right, let's get to the next one here. Sticking with a team or unit kind of theme, who do we think, David, is potentially going to be this year's version of the San Francisco 49ers, a presumptive favorite, 10.5, 11 and a half preseason over under win total that doesn't end up making the playoffs. This type of thing happens when you make an unforeseen run to a conference.

championship game, but I do feel like the commanders jumped from fun story to dominant NFL team very, very quickly. And yeah, I mean, you make it to the NFC title game and then you trade for a top 10 tackle like Laramie Tunsell as well as a known name like Debo Samuel. I see how it happens, but I'm not ready to go there yet. Like I think of the commanders as a team that's going to be scrapping to make the playoffs more than I think of them as like just just writing them in Sharpie into the bracket, which maybe it's anecdotal a little bit, but I feel like they're kind of getting that treatment, right? Like, you know, Jaden Daniels was voted as a top five quarterback in that ESPN ranking of

anonymous personnel. And then obviously he was amazing last year. They get a lot of the guys from last year back. But how how replicable is that? And I wanted to do the math. I think everybody knows the commanders have an older roster. I misspoke on a show last week when I said they're a young team. What I really meant is they're a young regime with a young quarterback because the roster is anything but.

I did the math on this too. I was curious just on the age of the projected starters, guys. The projected 22 starting players for the Washington commanders average out at 29 years of age. There are so many 30 plus year old players on the Washington commanders. Like, you go down the list. It's, it's kind of staggering. Like, it's amazing that this many older players are still playing well enough and healthy enough for this to be a playoff caliber team.

And it's a testament to them, but it also makes me nervous about the cliff coming for some of these guys or, like, or just injuries. Like, when you talk about a team that's this experienced. And on top of that, They're not sneaking up on anybody this year. They also play the AFC West and the NFC North, which like I don't like to get into the preseason win-lost total stuff. Like we don't know how everything's going to shake out.

But those two divisions, I'm reasonably confident you're playing a lot of really tough games. So for a lot of reasons, I think I'm lower on the commanders than a lot of the NFL populace to the point where, yeah, in a division that tough, I don't think you can rule out them missing the playoffs. Derek, I don't think this surprises you at all. They're probably on your short list for this. They were on my short list.

And I picked a different team purely for the sake of like, I figured somebody else would go with the commanders at some point. But I agree with all of that, man. Like the, I'm the offense, like, I get what they're doing with Laramie Tunzel and Debo Samuel. But even outside of that, like their number three receiver was supposed to be Noah Brown. He's already going to miss a lot of the season. Sam Cosme was their best offensive lineman last year.

And so now you have Laramie Tunsel, which changes that. but Cosme is probably not going to play for a lot of the season or he's at least not going too early in the year. And then you look at the defense outside of Thorntz Armstrong. I don't know who's rushing the passer and I still don't really trust this back seven.

Like Bobby Wagner is getting older and I think his name inflates his value more than what I think we're getting from him on the field at this point. And then like, you know, they're signing guys like Will Harris to replace Jeremy Chin, which I think I understand why they're doing it, but that to me is a little bit of a downgrade

at corner it's I like signing Jonathan Jones and drafting Trey Amos to see who wins the job. But I think until we get some proof of concept there, I don't know who's, I don't know who's going to play well enough there. So there's just too many question marks on this team for, again, a team that I know you look at the win loss and be like, oh, they won 12 games. But they won like four of those in pretty ridiculous fashion. And if that just comes back to Earth, well, then you're back to being a nine win team who, again, you're kind of scrapping for the wild card, which to be clear, in year two with a

young quarterback being like a wildcard team and being in the mix is fine. Like what the tech, like that's kind of what happened with the Texans last year where they just got stuck in neutral and you want to be better than that. But it's way better than, they're not going to bottom out. But I just, if they're a nine win team that barely misses, I don't think it's that crazy. Yeah. I don't think it's hard to make an argument for what that version of the commanders looks like this year.

It's the defense or it's the offense regressing a tiny bit, which I think wouldn't be surprising, right? I mean, when you have an offense like that and Derek, we've talked about this, there was enough volatility in some of the things that drove the value of that offense where if you'd get a little bit less lucky on some deep balls, if you don't get quite as much value from the scrambling, if the tempo stuff. The fourth downs.

They hit like every fourth down, which Jaden Daniels, I do think, has a skill set that suggests he can continue to be good at that stuff, but not at the rate that they were doing last year. Like that was truly just like special stuff. Let's say the wide receiver depth, you start chipping into it really early in,

the season. Let's say you lose a few more coin flips on offense. You go from being the six or seventh most efficient offense in the league to the 12th or 13th most efficient offense in the league. And the defense, based on the moves you made this off season, doesn't take any sort of step forward. I don't think that's crazy. Like, I think that's actually a very realistic way for this season to unfold. There's a chance that some of the things that they've done along the offensive line allow some stability on that side of the ball and they stave off some of that regression. There's a chance that some of the young guys hit on defense. Let's say Trey almost is a star from the beginning.

Let's say Von Miller gives you seven, eight sacks as a situational pass rusher, and you have enough big bodies to hold up on early downs. You can make an argument that the defense could take a stuff forward, but I don't think the additions this offseason are so overwhelming that you're tempted to make an argument. They're like, oh, yeah, this will definitely be like a top half of the league defense. I just think that them settling closer to where they were last year with some regression on offense is absolutely.

on the table for this team. Just in an attempt to win commanders fans back over, I will say it's also on the table that Jaden just is that dude. And like we talked about it last week that we're not quite ready to rank him as like the fifth or sixth best quarterback in the NFL. If the commanders come close to replicating what they did last year, I would guess it's because he really is that special. And I won't rule that out, but there's enough other stuff about this.

team that worry me that I don't want to just pin my hopes and dreams on Jaden having another amazing season because I mean we saw this with C.J. Stroud. It can look amazing and the NFL's still really, really hard. Let's say he is one of those dudes. I think that's where the argument starts. And then we'll see what happens with the timeline on Cosme, but we've talked about this a lot this offseason. They got by last year with the offensive line. They hid that group. They worked around that group. They made the talent look a lot better than it was. Now, if Connerley's good from day one, and now you have Laramie Tunsel, there's a chance that the offensive line is like a driver of your success rather than something that you have to paper over. You combine that with a Debo that stays healthy, that's well deployed within the offense, some of those opportunities you have where you're trying to get the ball in your receiver's hands.

They look a lot different, those screens with Debo Samuel at 95% than they do with Diami Brown. So I absolutely think that there's a path for them to be even better or as good as they're. were last year. But some of this stuff when you have a one-year spike can be volatile. And so I think it's worth acknowledging that they could take a small step back on offense. And I think the defense is absolutely still a work in progress no matter how you cut it. All right, Derek, who is your answer to this?

Who is this year's version potentially of the San Francisco 49ers? This one, I feel a little bit uncomfortable doing this because of how good the best players on the offense are. But I think it's going to be the Cincinnati Bengals. And I know last year, like, they missed the playoffs because they got a little bit unlucky, right? In the game that we were just talking about with Washington, like if Jaden Daniels doesn't hit that Hail Mary down the right side line, the Bengals just get into the playoffs. And so I understand that they barely missed last year. But to me, the reasons that I would pick the Bengals are, even though I like some of the stuff that they did on offense like drafting Dylan Fairchild, it just doesn't feel like there's that much room to go for the offense.

They were already like a top five, six offense the way that they were operating. They would have to really hit like a special stride to be any better than that. And I just think this isn't even a criticism of any of the players. It's just hard to do that and hard to predict that. So I think that's where that's kind of where I'm starting. And then the defense, I know that, you know, coaching change might help. I know that they added a couple of guys like T.J. Slayton. And you can sell me on the world where they can be the 21st best defense and that's okay.

I also think it's just as likely that they are a bottom three deep. defense. Like the front just isn't that good. And their best pass rusher doesn't want to come to camp because he's not getting a contract, which the power to him, he should be doing that. He deserves to get paid. And then their other pass rusher, Shamar Stewart, their first round pick is working out at his old college. And he's not with the team. Like I just, it's, it's easier for me to see a world where this defense is again prohibitive to their success. And they only scrape by like nine wins and don't get into the AFC wild card than it is for me to see this, you know, 11, 12 wins. team that's that's going to get to, you know, the AFC championship, the way that I think we all

envision the Bengals to be, but they're just not that team to me until they prove it again. Yeah, the defense is obviously the question and which way this ends up going is hugely important. But we know the defense is so, so volatile that to me, it's absolutely on the table for them to just be an average defense. Like if some of the young players hit, and even if they're like the 21st ranked defense in the league, like if it's just, we go with the median outcome here where they're below average. It's like solidly below average. I think it's probably the most realistic

outcome here. I still feel like the offense has a chance to be good enough for them to kind of fight off that disappointing sort of season that they had last year. And there are a few reasons why I think the offense can be better than it was last year. One, the guard play, if Dylan Fairchild is even solid, the fact that you have... If he's below average, that's an upgrade. Yes. Like the guard play was atrocious last year. The left guard spot has been a quagmire for them for the entire borough era, and then Alex Kappa really fell off last season after all the injuries that he's endured. And so the combination of Lucas Patrick and Cody Ford isn't exciting anyone at right guard. But if you can have four other spots that are at least mildly solved, if Dylan Fairchild is

solid, that's a step forward. And also, Amarius Mims going into year two, staying a little bit healthier, if he can be like a real difference maker at tackle, combined with more stability at the other spots, and then you still have the usual suspects at receiver, Joe Burrow, all of that, there is a world where this is the best offense in football. Like I do think there's still a little bit of meat left on the bone. So then it becomes a question of how bad is the defense.

And I don't know. I just think that it's just as likely they're the 20th defense to me if they are the 30th defense. And that's why it's hard for me to put them in this sort of category. I just think there's so much less, there's so much more stability on offense with this team just because of who the main characters are that, I don't know, it's harder for me to imagine them taking, like having the sort of season they had last year again. Let me ask a question to both you really quickly.

So the offense, I do think again, if they're the best offense in the league and I sound stupid, that's not going to be surprising. The quarterback's incredible, Jemar Chase, DeHiggins, that could all absolutely happen. if you had to predict the bottom five defenses right now, would the Bengals be in that group? I think for me they would be. And I think that's kind of what this comes down to. And again, there is a chance that they're not in there.

They could be the 21st or 22nd best defense. But if I really had to predict the bottom five, they would be in there. Here's what I'll say. I don't think they would be for me. Okay. Maybe that's the disconnect here then. I mean, that's what I'm saying.

Like, we keep saying like, oh, they could be the 21st best defense, but you look at all the other defenses in the league and it's like, why would they be like, the bangles are pretty bad? It's really hard to predict the bottom five defenses in the league. That is also true. It's really, really hard to predict who the worst defenses in the league are going to be like. The bottom three are usually like catastrophically bad. So that's a good point.

We talk about it all the time. We're like, defense is so volatile from year to year. And okay, I'm just assuming. And I, you know, I saw comments from from Duke Tobin before we recorded that and Mike Brown for that matter that they want to get something done with Trey Hendrickson. If Trey Hendrickson is part of this, I just, I call it blind faith, call it the offense, lifting the defense up. I got to assume they can be a modicum better than they were last year. And I'm not, I'm not asking for them to be good, but I can imagine them at least being, yeah,

like high 20s, 20 to 22. And with the type of firepower that they have, that's enough to at least be a playoff team. I mean, it's, it's insane that we're in this position in the first place. If they remember how to play football in the season opener against New England, we're not even doing this. That's right. That's how close they came to making the playoffs in the first play. I mean, if they were to miss the playoffs again with the offense being that good, it is charger-esque levels of cursed. Like, that's what we're talking about. My answer to this, and I feel bad doing this, because I just spent the last two days with this team. I think there are a lot of reasons to believe they can overcome some of the offseason brain drain that's happened to them.

But it's the lines. Like you lose both coordinators. You have potentially two new starters along the offensive line with Christian Mahagi stepping into a starting role most likely. And then Tate Ratwich taking over for Frank Ragnow at center. You have John Morton and Calvin Shepard in his first year coordinators. And I think there's still some other position groups where it's like, makes me a little bit queasy. Like I was sitting there in the front row at the media center in Detroit when Dan Campbell was like, yeah, Levi-Oenzerica is out for the year. And I like gasped.

I was like, oh my God. So now you have Onzareke out for the year. You have Al-Lene McNeil on an indeterminate timeline. You have Tileague Williams and D.J. Reader is your two starting defensive tackles, both of whom I think have a chance to be good players this year but are big bodied run stuffer types. And now your edge depth, Josh Pascal is also heard. He's going to be back relatively soon, but you're in a spot on the edge where if you lose Marcus Davenport, Al-Qaeda-Mohmed is starting for you. And he was good last year in spot duty off the street, like much better than I expected him to be.

But there are just elements of this roster that I think are thinner than you want from a contender. And I think combined with the turnover at those coordinator spots, it's just not that hard for me to imagine a world in that division where the lions are still a good team that gets a little bit unlucky, goes 9 and 8 and misses the playoffs this year. They to me, like, I like everything they did in the off season in terms of trying to address the problems that they had, but coordinators leaving was inevitable. Frank Ragnow, like, there was retiring, there was nothing they could do about. Like, they've just lost so many things that they couldn't really do anything about that

it's hard for me to feel like, again, they're going to have the ceiling that they had in the past two, three years. And this to me does not speak any ill of the way of the front office, of the head coach. is like I think in the long term over the next three, four years, this will continue to be one of the best franchise in the NFL. I just think next year might be a little bit like we've seen with the Niners where they kind of oscillate years, you know, where they are a 13 win team one year. And then the next year they're like a nine win team, maybe barely get into the playoffs. That's kind of how I feel like with the Lions. They've just, again, you mentioned it too much

brain drain, it feels like. And I think sometimes with the brain drain, if you have an elite quarterback, it's easier to overcome a coordinator change. I like Jared. golf and think he's done a very good job there, he's not Josh Allen, right? Like, it's just, it's harder to maintain that on offense. And I think the Niners fall into that camp as well, where, you know, Brock Purdy, obviously injuries were a huge part of what the Niners were last year, but when you have a quarterback who is good but not great, when some of the other things around him, whether it's a coordinator, some of the surrounding talent, take a slight step back, you feel it more than you would when you have one of the four guys at the top of the sport. And that's the

position that the Niners are, excuse me, that the Lions are in. It's just fun watching the list of things you need to hand wave away getting longer. Because like a few months ago, it's like, ah, big deal. You lose Kevin Zitler. That stuff happens. And then you're like, oh, well, and you start with the coordinators. You're like, well, Dan Campbell, I trust Dan Campbell to do that. I said that a couple weeks ago.

And I do. But then you lose Frank Rag now and you're like, oh, I'm getting more nervous. Okay. and then you lose Levi-Oenzerike on the second day of training camp. And you're like, that is a bad omen considering there's six more weeks until we can even play games, let alone what you might deal with during the season. And so I'm not jumping off the Lions Bandwagon, but the list of things you have to explain away is starting to get very long.

And I see your logic completely. We're going to take one more quick break here. And then we're going to get back with a speed round of sorts with a couple player-specific ones about what we might expect this season. We got to move through these pretty quickly, but I want to hit most of them because I think they're fun. Derek, who do you think has a chance

to be this year's version of Jared Verse? A rookie that comes in and is just immediately a star, like one of the better players at his position from day one. Yeah, I again, did not mean to pick the same position as the player that we have named this after

like I did with Zach Bond and Jack Sanborn. But in the same vein as Jared Verse, I'm picking Michael Williams, man. I just, I loved him coming out of college. But I mean, I love those bigger like 265 pound, just put his hand straight through your chest type of pass rush. And I really think Michael Williams can be that. And I think you saw some really impressive, impressive flashes from him as like a power-based rusher last year, even when he was a little bit not healthy.

And then to me, the thing that really sets this over the edge for me for why this is like a really important thing, the Niners last year were a horrific run defense. they were really, really bad. And I still have some questions about how well the younger defensive tackles are going to come along. One thing I know for certain Michael Williams is going to do when he walks into the league is set the edge. And so him just being here, Robert Sala coming back, it just feels like it's going to work. If that happens, I will be crestfallen. If Michael Williams, who went one pick after the bear's pick turns into like a star past rusher from day one, I will be a sad, sad, man.

But he's Dennis Allen's type. I know, I know. And I understand, like, when I watched him, I thought there was a lot of Greg Rousseau to his game where it's a lot of length. I wasn't sure about the ceiling as a pass rusher. But I keep coming back to this idea that he wasn't healthy last year. And that being something to keep in the back of your mind because part of my issue with him is that I didn't think he played with like a ton of violence. And considering like the traits and the toolbox that he's bringing to the table. But I think some of that is that he wasn't healthy.

And so you combine some of the traits with the fact that he just. just turned 21 years old, I do see this sort of path for him. And if it ends up unfolding, I will be a very sad person because I think that the argument for taking a tight end in the top 10 this year was there aren't that many difference-making players at high-end positions. And so if that guy ends up becoming one in San Francisco, I will not be a happy person. This is the price, Robert. It's like the monkey's paw. Like Ben Johnson unlocks Caleb Williams and the Bears' offense is good, but Michael Williams is Alden Smith 2.0.

Like, that's just the price you have to pay. That's part of Bears fandom, I think. As Colson Loveland gets 32 catches for like 418 yards. Exactly. I have a very obvious one. I mean, I think you have to mention Abdul Carter. I don't need to say a lot about it. That's cheating.

You have to, like, somebody outside the top half of the first round is necessary here. Luckily, I brought multiple. The other one that I really, like A for his talent and B for his landing spot is Malachi Starks. I think, I mean, he was one of my favorite first round players to watch. Just I love his movement skills. He moves so comfortably in space and he's not afraid to hit. Like he can do it all.

I don't really understand why he fell as far as he did. And now he goes into a Raven secondary where I think all he's going to have to do as a rookie is just hang out and make the plays that are there to be made. Like when you're playing with Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith, not to mention you have all the, you know, like the cornerback situation looks phenomenal with Jayae Alexander, Nate Wiggins. They brought in Chito Wuzier, who's been an underrated player throughout his career. All he's going to have to do is just hang out and make the plays that everybody else creates. And not to take credit away from him, but it is just such a super advantageous situation for a young safety. And, you know, it sucks that Ardarius Washington got hurt, but I would expect he's going to step right into the starting lineup.

And yeah, I think it's going to be like playing on rookie mode when you've got Roquan and Kyle Hamilton playing alongside you. I love that pick because to me, the quick sell for it is if he's just as good as Gino Stone was in 2023, you're the best defense in the league again. And that's like Gino Stone played well, but that's not that high of a bar for a show pick. He can have six picks just by cleaning up this, you know, the. stuff that's there for him. My answer is a predictable one based on the pre-draft conversations I was having and my crushes pre-draft. To me, it's Derek Carmen.

Like, if Derek Carmen came in and was just like immediately one of the six or seven best interior pass rushers in the league, that wouldn't surprise me whatsoever. I loved him coming into the draft. He's dropped into a fantastic spot. I just feel like he has a chance to be one of those guys that we look up a year from now. And it's like, how did he go in the 20s? It's just not that hard for me to imagine that. That's a great one.

I mean, you're preaching to the choir here. I think we probably spent, I don't know, half of the first round when we did our live show trying to talk about like, all right, when's Derek Harmon going to come off the boy? Oh, this team's up. Maybe they should think about Derek Harmon. So I just, yeah, I love this pick. He was on my short list. All right.

So this next one here, who is this year's version of a guy like Quinn Miners, right? Somebody who was clearly an ascending player, but really asserted himself as one of the best players at his position. I think you make an argument that Quinn Miners is like the best right guard in the league right now or on the short list at that position. So Derek, who did you go with with this one? Somebody who makes the good to great jump in 2025? I'm going to lean into the linebacker bit again. I really think Deion Henley has a shot to be like a star level linebacker. And it was so ESPN released their like the top 10 at each position voted on by scouts and jams and all that stuff. Deion Henley was not even on the honorable mentions list.

He was on like the list below that that was like, got a couple of votes. That to me is outrageous. He is, I think when you talk about a guy who has like the length, the sideline to sideline speed, enough strength taking on blocks, even though I think that's probably maybe the weaker part of his game,

and then just really insane coverage chops. We talk so much about how much the Chargers really did a lot as a coverage unit last year. And some of that was them getting away with, you know, some decent play out of younger corners. But a lot of it was because Deon Henley, as a middle linebacker, can take away a lot of space that a lot of other guys can't. So I just think if this Chargers defense continues to play really well, there's a shot that he just looks insane. I like that one.

I'm also very jealous of David's answer here because if I could go back and do it all over again, this actually might be my answer. Helman, who did you have for this one? It's funny. I love the player and I don't feel bad about it. I might be swimming upstream a little bit by picking like a slot corner because even the really good ones, don't get the type of love as like a boundary corner. But I love Garrett Williams. I think he's awesome.

I think he's super under the radar. I mean, he graded out in the top five, top 10 of like whoever you want to look at for cornerback play. He just, he's on an Arizona defense that has or had nothing else in the way of ability. It's like him and Buddha Baker and like you're not even, you know,

when the Cardinals defense is on the field, you're not even looking at that TV. You're looking somewhere else. but credit to Moni Austin Ford. He did not add to his offense, but there's a lot more to work with this year. I mean, they obviously gave Josh Sweat a ton of money. They signed Dalvin Tomlinson and Callais Campbell. I don't think this is going to be like an elite defense,

but it is a defense with talent. And I think it'll allow Garrett Williams to showcase his own talent a little bit more because, I mean, I think he's on the short list of guys that do his job. He just hasn't gotten a ton of credit for it yet. and if the Cardinals defense is a little bit better, I think that'll change this year. Yeah, this is a very good one because I think that the Cardinals defense was mostly a curiosity from Sickos over the last year or so.

They did a lot of weird, funky stuff. They were fun to watch. They were way better when you look at the numbers than the talent level, considering the talent level, and they had any right to be. And so now, if more people have their eyes on the Cardinals defense, because we're sitting there in week eight, and this is the ninth best defense in the league,

because of all the talent that they added, somebody like Garrett Williams starts to get a lot more attention than he's gotten previously, even though he's been undoubtedly an ascending player. I remember there, it was like week 11 or 12. They played the Jets and I was like, Garrett Williams is having the game of the week from anybody. So that's a fantastic pick.

My pick for this might be too good, considering the production he's had over the last couple years, but he hasn't made a Pro Bowl. And I do think that he is in like that firmly good player category. I'm going with Kobe Turner. like Kobe Turner's had at least I think seven sacks in each of his first two seasons but it's been a lot of cleanup sacks. You know, he's been a productive pass rusher, but I don't think it's all come together for him. And the way he moves and just some of the physical traits that he's bringing to the table, some of the like closing explosiveness, the balance, the strength.

Like his tools are just so intriguing that I feel like if he can just finish closing the gap where he puts it all together, he becomes a guy who has been pretty productive to somebody that is really changing games in a different way. And I think we'd probably talk more about him if it weren't for Jared Verse last year. But I do think that there's like one more step that Kobe Turner can take in year three, where he goes from being like a young player who people that pay attention to the league really like to somebody who is like a full-fledged star at that position. it might even be just getting more third down opportunities right like we talked about on a different show that they had the fewest like third and pass defensive snaps of any team in the league if they

get to average and Kobe Turner gets one or two more chances a game that that might be enough let's get to the next one here who is this year's cooper de jean David and by that we mean who is a day two or three pick that probably lasted longer than he should that is just good right away from the moment that we see him at the field I promise I would have said this no matter where he landed, but he did land with the team that I've spent a long time around. So he's even higher on my radar. But from the time I started watching draft tape, Donovan Azaraku is, he's just the type of guy I love to watch. And I'm not unique for that, right?

Like people love bendy freaks who can get parallel to the ground when they rush the passer. And that's exactly what he does. And I'm not, I'm not crazy either. I went and double-checked this. Dane, our good buddy, Dane Bruegler, had him ranked 22nd overall in the Beast. And the guy fell all the way to 44th in the draft. He landed in Dallas mid-second round.

I was a little bit surprised by that. I know he's undersized. I know he needs to bulk up. He will probably be like a designated pass rusher early on in his career. But I just love the guy. Like, I love his bend. I love his motor.

I think you can put him on the field in certain situations. and get, if not sacks, then at least pressures out of him. He reminds me a lot of Nolan Smith, to be honest with you. I think they, like the body type and the bendiness is very similar. Ironically, you know, Nolan Smith didn't really break out until his second year in the league. But, you know, when they put this guy on the field, I doubt he's an every down type of guy early on. But when they put him on the field, I think it's going to make a difference.

I'm really, I'm really excited to watch him. I also went with a pass rusher. and I went with Nick Scorton of the Carolina Panthers. And the reason I went with him is I think we're going to look back and realize that he fell because Texas A&M didn't know what to do with him. As a sophomore at Purdue, he had 10 sacks. And he was playing it around 260ish at that point. So like not small, but obviously not one of those like 280 pound rushers. He gets to Texas A&M.

Obviously it's a new defense. And they want him to play closer to that 275, 280. He just never looked comfortable. Like his body type just didn't look right. didn't look like he knew what he was quite how to play that way. So he cut all the way down to 257 for the combine. And I just think that there's a good chance that we start to see the player that we saw as a sophomore at Purdue again.

And he immediately is just a guy who is racking up a bunch of sacks as a rookie. I just feel like his floor is so high. Like even if he doesn't hit the ceiling, I think that he is just going to be a useful rotational player from the day he steps into the NFL. It's the way he plays. It's the motor. It's the power. Like he's somebody that I have no.

hesitation in projecting him to be like an impactful player on an NFL defense, even if he isn't like a double-digit sack guy immediately. I don't mean to do the Purdue bit, but there is a little like George Carloftus to the way that he plays. That's perfect. Yeah, that's a very good comparison when it's just like, all right, even if that guy's never going to be like the ace pass rusher on one of the best defenses in the league, he can be a high end number two for a very, very long time.

Mine's kind of cheating here, but I think I went with the DB in order to make it closer to the Cooper DeGine thing. And obviously he felt because of some injury concerns. But is anybody going to be surprised if Will Johnson's just a good player right away for the Cardinals? I debated using him as my guy. No, I won't be surprised at all. Yeah, he's just, especially in, you mentioned there are a defense that does a lot of weird stuff.

And he's a player who I think some of his best stuff is kind of playing in off coverage and jumping on stuff. Well, those defenses invite you to do that. So it's, it's kind of a perfect marriage of that stuff. Last category here. who do we think has a chance to be this year's version of Saquan Berkeley? And I'm not saying somebody who is going to be the offensive player of the year, but someone who goes from an objectively bad situation to an objectively good situation

and kind of reframes the way that we think about that player. It can be like one or two steps down from what Saquan did last year and I think still apply to the conversation that we're having. So Derek, who is that for you? Somebody going from a bad situation to a good one this year, that kind of reframes the way that we talk about him. Caleb Williams? I'm kidding.

We don't have to relitigate all the bear stuff on this show. My serious answer is Chavon Holland. And I think it's for a couple of reasons. One, last year, I think the Miami defense just had a lot of issues. Like, I just think even for as well as I think it was put together coordination-wise, I just think they weren't all that talented of a unit, especially in the secondary. The other thing with Holland is he suffered a knee injury at the end of 2023. So his 2024 season was like,

the year after with the injury stuff. Now 2025 is going to be his year after the year after. And so I think health-wise, it's going to be really good for him. Then he also goes to New York, which they've got pass rushers on pass rushers, on past rushers. And that obviously helps a DB. They short up the secondary, hopefully, at corner with guys like Paulson Nadebo. So two years ago, we were talking about Javan Holland, like he might be one of the best safeties in the league.

In the way that we were talking about Sequin Barkley, like he might be one of the best running backs in the league. I think there's a chance that playing in New York, he gets to, he gets to, to showcase some of that again if he's healthy. I think we need to clip out you saying like the giants are a landing spot to be excited about, especially in light of this Hacquan thing. That one side of the ball. Yeah, the Giants defense could be a beneficial place for a player to be.

Like, hey, you got to start somewhere. I think that matters. David, who's your answer for this one? Somebody who changes situation is going to reframe the way we look at them a little bit. I guess I didn't mean for this to become a theme. at the end of the show. But I just, there is no doubt in my mind that George Pickens is going to go off this year. Like, I just think he's going to be absolutely gangbusters in an offense with a quarterback who can

get him the ball and is not afraid to throw into any window. I know you guys know this, but I'm just going to say it for emphasis. Through his first three years in the league, George Pickens is averaging 58 catches for 950 yards a year, his quarterbacks to this point, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubisky, Justin Fields, and the 35-year-old version of Russell Wilson. Even if you don't think much of Dak Prescott, he is so far beyond the quarterback play that George Pickens has gotten to this point in his career. It's not even funny. He's playing with C.D. Lamb, so he doesn't have to be the focal point of the offense. He is in a contract year and needs to play well if he

wants to make the most of it from a financial standpoint. There is every reason for him to not be a headache for at least the next five months. And on top of that, he plays for the Dallas Cowboys who encourage things to be a headache anyway. It just all lines up perfectly for George Pickens. And yeah, man, if he's healthy and if Dax's healthy, I just think it's going to be a hell of a fun year. And, you know, he's not a guy that you think of as like a top tier receiver, but I think you could by the time this season's over. I've come around on the George Pickens thing. If he can prevent himself from self-destructing and Dack stays healthy, this is easy to talk yourself into. My answer to this, and this is the last one we'll do here today, I'm going with Evan Ingram.

I just think that going from that situation in Jacksonville to a Broncos offense that is a very put-together unit, I know that Everingham was really productive a couple years ago, but he was really productive in a broken Jaguar's offense two seasons ago. And he was hurt for a good chunk of this year. But even the half of the year he played, he really was not a very impactful player. And so even at age 30 and obviously, you know, skill position players, third contract guys, whatever, it's always dicey when we get into this territory in their careers. But going to a Sean Payton-led offense where I think that there are targets to be had. Other than Cortland Sutton, there's nobody in that offense that is going to demand the ball.

And so I feel like Evan Ingram going to a Sean Peyton-led team where there's going to be opportunity, even at this stage in his career being a little bit older, I think that we could see a really productive season from him. I'm very excited about that one. Like way more excited than I thought I was going to be about Evan Ingram at this stage in his career. And it's not with that one, it's not just that there's targets to be had, right? It's there's targets to be had specifically at that position. Yeah. The leader in tight end receptions for the Broncos last year was Lucas Kroll at 19.

I think it's more likely that Evan Engram hits like 85, dude. It's going to be a much, much different offense with Ingram in there. All right, that is all we've got. We had to speed run through those last few, but I definitely wanted to get those in here. We will be back with a bunch more stuff later this week. We are on a four show a week schedule plus a little bonus for you guys. We are bringing back our Beat writer notebooks from training camp this year.

Very excited about that. Those are going to be coming your way on Saturday. So we are at five shows a week all the way through training camp. Please be on the lookout for all of that. that for now that's all we got appreciate you guys listening we'll talk to you very soon