The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 2026 versions of 2025 things

Episode Date: July 30, 2026

Past may not be prologue, but it can give us an idea of what to look for when considering what might come next. For example, Byron Murphy's ascent was critical to the Seahawks' defense turning into a dominant unit. Could another player follow a similar script this year? It's in that spirit that Dave Helman and Derrik Klassen hunt for 2026 versions of 2025 things on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Join The Athletic Football Show Discord Server: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @RobertMaysFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Dave Hellman. Robert Mays is busy crisscrossing the country on his 2026 training camp tour. Please make sure you're keeping an eye out for all of his dispatches coming out of that. But never fear while he is on the ground getting all of that content. Derek Classen and myself press on with our training camp, 26 preview content. Really fun show for y'all today. Always trying to guess at what we might be talking about later.

No matter how hard we try. Plenty of stuff catches us off guard over the course of the season. And the goal today is to guess what that might be. Who is the dark horse that we're not talking about? Who's this year's New England Patriots? Who's this year's Nick Eamon Worry, who came from being a second round pick to defining so much of last season? Derek and I wanted to dive in and try to guess at the 2026 version of some major storylines we saw in 2025. Really fun show.

Let's get into it. All right, as I mentioned at the top of the show, Robert is not here. Robert's training camp tour rolls on. I believe he's in El Segundo, California talking to the Chargers right now. He's got the Cowboys after that. Our Arizona Cardinals notebook that he did is available. And if you're listening to this, that means the Rams notebook is available as well. So content coming at you all month long as Robert criss crosses the nation.

And by the way, he will eventually be back in Chicago. and when he is, we have our second live show officially coming up. September 1st, Lincoln Hall, the three of us will be in town, previewing the season, doing our, we're doing our wins pool live at Lincoln Hall, correct? Winspool Live, Lincoln Hall, get ready for it. Eight rounds, three guys, it's going to be a lot of fun. As if it wasn't stressful enough, people can deride my picks live in person instead of over the internet 12 hours later.

Well, I feel like there's going to be even more pressure to be the guy that picks the Bears. Like you want that's going to be what gets the biggest crowd reaction is whoever takes. She's pop right there. I think we exactly. We need to bully Mays into picking the bears because he won't want to. Like he won't want to do that. No, absolutely not. We could make a pact where we just, we shirk them off until it's, he has to pick them at

some point. The bears end up going undrafted. Yeah, because Dave and I have made a fact and Robert just refuses to do it. This is a good bit brewing right here. He's going to text us tomorrow and be like, don't do that. Yeah. So much content coming y'all's way over the next month and obviously into the season. But right now, Derek, you and I are going to do, these are in some sense my favorite types of show to do, but they're also weirdly stressful. We were joking about this yesterday. We're outlining the 2026 version of things that happened in 25, which is fun and kind of an easy lift because there's not that much research you can do for this. as opposed to shows where you've really got to dive in and come up with nuance takes. But at the same time, it's stressful trying to think outside the box for examples of things that happened last year.

So I had a good time with this, but the desire to really come up with some fresh ideas, it weighed on me after a while. How about you? I mean, mine just did not come to me when I thought they would. I had multiple sessions where I'm just sitting there staring at the computer for like 45 minutes, at NFL standings and rushing leaders from last year and and sack leaders and stuff from all of last year. And like, I just feel like I'm like drawing blanks or like thinking too hard and trying to make them too perfect. And then I go and make dinner or I go on a walk or I go to the gym and like one comes to me. And then another. It was just like when I wasn't actually

trying to piece them together that they came to me. Shower thoughts are a very real thing. All right. I love to do this. When I host, I just put the onus on you. I want you to start us off. So when you were, and give me, give me the one that got you the most excited. Like the one that you were like, ah, this is, this is nice. I like this. Let's start there. Okay. Most of mine are positive and I'll start with one of those.

And this is about a player that I love dearly. Last year in 2025, this is a player that you love. Byron Murphy really came into his own as part of the Seahawks defense. Like he just turned it up and became a very pivotal figure for what was one of the best defenses that we've seen in the while and a defense that led his team to the Super Bowl. I kind of think Jehad Campbell for the Eagles can do that this year. And obviously different positions, but like year two bump, like I just,

I really think that this could be like that kind of player. You dirty dog, because we just did second year X factors. And I was a little surprised you didn't bring him up. You just had him in the holster for this show instead. It's partly that and also like, I think for the X factors I wanted to talk about more guys that like, I'm not sure if their team is even going to be good.

or if they're good or what it is. And with Jahad Campbell, I think he's already good. And I think that even if, even if Jahad Campbell doesn't really take it step next year, the Eagles defense is probably still like the fourth or fifth best defense in the league. But I do think if he takes this step that I think that he can take, he could be the type of piece that being, being like a spine player in these, you know, Fangio McDonald, that style of defense, I think is incredibly important. And we saw what that did for the Seahawks defense.

Obviously for Campbell and, you know, being part of the Eagles, it's going to be a little bit more coverage-oriented, him being able to help out a safety room down the field that I think is not that great. So, like, if he can be a great pole runner and be better in coverage last year than I think he was on a down-to-down basis, that could be important. But I also bring them up because their paths and, like, how their rookie season went and how their second year might go are very similar. Like, both of these players had reasonably nice rookie years, but did not look like star players

immediately. Like, Byron Murphy's rookie year was solid, but he played like 45. percent or something of their snaps or like half their snaps. Obviously last year, Jahad Campbell also was like kind of on and off the field, wasn't really a starter. Nikobe Dean comes back and he takes the starting spot. And in 2024 for Byron Murphy, the Seahawks had John Hankins, who was taking a lot of snaps in the middle of that defense. And obviously last year, the Eagles had Nekobo Dean. John Hankins leaves in 2025, boom, Byron Murphy becomes the guy and he is awesome. And now I think this year we're seeing Jihad Campbell

really being able to take that next step this year. So I just think that if there's any piece in terms of like development that is going to change the Eagles going from again what looks like the fourth or fifth best defense in the league to like oh shit they are dominating every single game that they play I think it's him becoming like a top six linebacker you think it's as simple as Nikobi dean just being more confident and experienced in that scheme as to why they favored him down the stretch I think it's mostly that like I think you saw jihad Campbell's best plays in coverage are better. Like he can run up the seam. He can run on the wheel. I thought he came down and like tackled checkdowns incredibly well. But when he was like kind of had to sit in zone and play with his

eyes behind his back and take back crossers coming from the other side of the field, Nicoby Dean was just a little bit more buttoned up with that style of stuff. And when a big point of the Fangio defense is like, hey, we're trying to choke them out and play like a really high success rate defense. I think the Kobe Dean in that sense kind of helped them out a little bit more. I also think partly because of some of the shoulder stuff, Jehad Campbell wasn't always as like violent downhill as you maybe wanted him to be. And I know maybe that will linger because he's still dealing with some of the shoulder stuff. But Nkobi Dean, hell or high water, even though he's small, he's going to go down and hit somebody.

And I do think that they valued that a little bit last year. Love this pick because I think it gets at the heart of what people like us are going to be trying to figure out here over the next six weeks and have been talking about since December probably, which is who's, going to allow you to quote unquote play small and fast without giving up any physicality and like ability to stop the run. And Nick Imanwari is if you're talking about the 2026 version of a 2025 thing. I mean, I know you mentioned Byron Murphy. Obviously the Seahawks detackles are a huge, huge part of why they were able to play that way as well.

Well, guess what? The Eagles have those guys too. Like that's not really something Philadelphia needs to worry about. but if Imanwari is a safety who essentially functions like a linebacker who doesn't need to come off the field, well, not everybody is going to have that guy, but a 6-3, 240-pound linebacker who doesn't run like it, I mean, that's just a different version of the same thing, right? Exactly. And I think that's kind of like the beauty of it is that they also, they like do have a nickel

that kind of does a lot of the stuff that Emin Wari does and obviously Dijin, but then Jihad Campbell being like the flip side of what you're talking about where he's a linebacker. backer who still gives you some safety things. Like, he can match up and run with tight ends if he needs to. He can sprint with our running backs out of the backfield. Like, I think the fact that he's going to give them some of that flexibility. And also something that I think he even gives them that is obviously a little bit different than Emin war because of the body types.

Jahad Campbell can play like on the line of scrimmage. And I think it's really cool that both he and Bonn can do that. You know, I mean, that's what Bond did for a majority of his career up until the last couple of years. And then even Jahad Campbell, when he was recruited to Alabama, was a defense event. And you can see that in some of the ways that he'll take on blocks

and try to get under guys and bend. And so the fact that they have, like, that's their ticket to flexibility, I think is really cool and could be potentially really unique for the Fangio defense. I think everybody's looking for that sort of defense unlocking player.

And I think you can pigeonhole yourself when you're just looking for a nickel safety or a nickel corner who lets you do it. I think there are, and Jehad Campbell is a perfect example of, I'm talking about. I think there are eight different sorts of body types that teams might be looking at as somebody who can help them achieve similar results, even if it's not, you know, a one-for-one copy. All right. I do, I have, I have one that sort of touches on that, but I'm going to veer into a completely different and much more vibes-based example of what I'm talking about. And so much at this time of year, I'm just thinking about how prognosticates, go and all the different ways that we can be wrong about what to expect.

And I was thinking about how we talked about the AFC North last year. And, you know, I think I picked Joe Burrow as an MVP candidate and the Ravens were one of the first teams off the board in our wins pool. And we gave plenty of airspace to the Steelers as a team that always makes the playoffs, even when you don't think they should. And so the AFC North, even with the Browns there, the AFC North was this, supposed juggernaut of a division that could have three playoff teams and then we got to that season finale where

Tyler Loop misses a field goal and one NFC North team gets into the playoffs first time since 2019 by the way first time in like six years that the AFC North only produced one playoff team I did not know that but I suppose that makes sense like two of those three teams have kind of always been in the mix and then it always feels like a disappointment when one of them doesn't get in so I I had not realized that, but that's okay. Wow.

So I'm thinking about that and I'm thinking, who do I think the world of right now as like one of the toughest divisions in football that could be kind of disappointing by the time we get to December? What if it's the NFC North this year? Hmm. And like they just cannibalize each other a little bit? Or is it that they cannibalize each other or just that none of these teams are quite as good as we think that they are? What if it's a little bit of both? I mean, we've talked about it all summer long. All of these teams have an undeniable flaw, whether it's, I mean, the Vikings are the easiest with the quarterback uncertainty.

The Packers are dealing with injuries and their offensive line looks unstable. You could say the exact same stuff about the lions, by the way. The bears, you've got turnover regression. You've got a defense that doesn't look very good on paper. So what if all of these teams just fall well short of the best case example of. of what we think they could be. And if they do that, you're probably talking about a bunch of teams

that are going to go like three and three in the division and scrap for everything they can get. And I was just daydreaming about it. And I was like, and similarly, starting in 2020, so the last three years, 2023 until now,

the NFC North has produced multiple playoff teams. And in 2024, obviously you had that crazy year where the Vikings were a wild card with a 14 and three record. So this is a division that we've gotten very used to being very strong. What if this division is like it will probably be a dog fight, but what if it's the tragic kind of dog fight like the AFC North was last year?

I mean, I think that that's totally on the table because I think too, like if you're trying to pick what are even the best case scenarios for some of these teams, I think the ones that have like that could potentially burn the brightest are obviously Bears offense or Lyons offense just like returning to form. And I mostly think that those two offenses will be good. Like if I had to lean yes or no that those are going to be top eight units, I would probably say yes to both of them. But they are both relying on offensive lines for one reason or another.

For the bears, it's that you don't really have a left tackle right now. And then your interior, you're obviously having to change out the center and dropping like a big level of play there, even if Garrett Bradbury is totally solid. And then Joe Tuny is getting older. Jonah Jackson has always been banged up. Like you just don't know if those guys are going to continue. to be as healthy as they were last year. And then for the Lions,

you're bringing in a new center who was mostly a backup for a long time of his career, and then two really young guards that they've had moments, but it's not like we are certain that those guys are very good. So it's like even the two units in the division that you're like, man, if that goes right, they could run away with it, are betting on the trenches really making sure that they can continue to be what they have been at their best.

and I just, I don't feel like you can bank on those 100% going into this year. I've said many times, at the end of the day, I think I do believe in the Lions Offensive line, but it's a testament to their coaching, Hank Fraley, such a prized piece of that coaching staff, and just the reputation that they've solidified here over the last three or so years, that you trust that. Because, yeah, I mean, Penae Soles flipping sides, which I have been adamant, I think he'll be fine. And you've got me over there. So that one, I'm good on.

At first I was like, man, I don't know. And I was like, man, he's Penae, so what am I doing? It's still a projection for the record. And then, yeah, like, you're talking about a bunch of young guys. I mean, it's easy to just be like, ah, Blake Miller will be fine. But that's a projection as well. So I don't know. I don't firmly believe this yet.

But as we set out on this training camp journey, I'm just like, ah, you can't, you can't just take for granted that these teams are all the juggernauts that they've been at various times. So I'm actually going to use this and segue into my next take because one of them is about one of these teams and it is about the Minnesota Vikings. They to me, the 2026 Vikings defense feels like we're going to start talking about them like the 2025 Chiefs defense where I think these are two very similar defensive coordinators where it's like these two high pressures. They're doing all this crazy stuff up front. They're always trying to bring stuff. And I know that the Chief's defense had already declined a year before this, but I feel like we've gotten to the point. with the Vikings defense where the talent has like very slowly deteriorated to a point where I'm

not sure that they can keep getting away with it. Like Harrison Smith is gone. They do not really have edge depth, especially if Dallas Turner does not take a step. And like we don't really know what Golda is going to be. Like he's probably like a weird hybrid player. I think their backers are like very specific players. And Flores has done a good job of using them. But I think if the front is potentially not as good as it was last year or has been at certain

points that that could be an issue. And I still don't think the secondary is very good. Like they have gotten away with it for years. But at a certain point, I feel like this is getting a little bit too feeble that I'm not sure they can keep getting away with it at the same level. What's it going to take for you to believe in my guy, Josh Mattelis? Like what, how many times do we have to do this dance? He was cooler when he was the third best safety on the team and kind of an oddity.

The fact that like now he is maybe the best, I'm like, I don't know, man. So what's the prediction here is that they just fall off? Although what's interesting is, and I know the chiefs did not have a good year, but the chiefs can afford to do a lot of falling off when they have Patrick Mahomes to just cobble everything together through sheer force of will. If the Vikings defense falls off, what are you projecting for the Vikings? I mean, if you don't even have that to lean on, even if Kyler Murray is pretty good, like this could be really ugly for Minnesota.

Well, I want to be clear. I don't think they're going to be like outright losing them a bunch of games. But last year, you know, I think we had, I think by the time 20203 came around, we had gotten used to the chiefs defense that it felt like gotten to a point where it's like they can be like a top 10 unit. And you know that Spags is going to give you good stuff in certain games and they can be like a really strong playoff defense. And Flores's Vikings have been that the last two years consistently with talent where we're like, I don't really know how he's getting away with that. I think that we've even seen over the course of what his defenses have been within a given season, by the end of each season, it's like got to get tweaked and it's got to get changed because all the like throw in the kitchen sink at stuff, eventually teams, they get three

months of film on it and they get three months of reps and they're like, we're a little bit more attuned to how this is going to go. And again, I feel like if they have to keep leaning into that with this level of talent, it feels more to me that this is going to be like the 12th, 13th, 14th best defense, which is like not an embarrassment by any point at all. But again, if the whole point of the offense or the whole point of the team was that we're going to be slightly above average on offense, we're going to get back to that point with Kyla Murray and the defense is going to be elite, I just don't know if the defense can be

elite again. They need multiple of these defensive draft picks to be guys quickly. Like you don't have to be defensive rookie of the year, but like Caleb Banks or goals. day or I love Jacoby Thomas. I don't know exactly how much of a role he's going to have early on, but to invest the degree of draft capital that they did. And in a lot of cases, as highly as they did, you just, you can't afford for this to be a wait and see draft class if you want this defense to be what it's been for most of Flores's tenure there, which actually that plays into one of my things, Derek. So what I wanted to look at, and we already talked about him and Worry, but how much did we focus on him? And then the other one I would throw in there is Carson Swessinger.

And I know, I know you love him. Relax. Relax over there. I know the Browns did not have a team-wide successful season, but he just lit the league on fire. And so I was just trying to identify day two rookies who I think could be that sort of house. hold name of, holy shit, are you seeing what this guy's doing? Like, I know, I know the Browns aren't very good, but are you watching Carson Swessinger? And I didn't want to zero in on linebackers and nickel players, but Jake Golda made my list.

Like, if you're looking at a day two player who could have an outsized impact early on, I identified a couple guys whose talent level I really love, and then a couple guys whose situation I just really love. And if you look at what Jake Golda could potentially bring as a converted pass rusher who played linebacker in college, it's just easy to imagine Brian Flores doing some fun shit with him. And so he made my short list of guys that could potentially be a bigger name than you might guess of a guy drafted whatever he was, like 50th. I don't even remember. I like bringing up Goldailles with Emin Wari, not because I would necessarily expect him to be that good, but like with Emin, Emin Wari was the case of a player and a draft prospect where I watched him on film and what he did at South Carolina and I was like, I don't know, man.

Like he's obviously incredibly talented and built like the prototype, but this just feels like you would need to really, really thread the needle with what he's going to be to get the most out of him. And then Mike McDonald takes him and has the perfect role for him. And I'm like, okay, well, if he, if he thinks that he has something in mind for him, that totally makes sense. Gold Day, I felt the same way about like when I was sacking him up with the other linebackers, in the class. It was just like, I'm watching some of these other guys, and it just felt like the path to success felt so much easier and so much cleaner. And with Golda, I was like, he's kind of an edge body and they don't even really play him in the box in college. Like, he's kind of one of those apex players, like, what is he? And then you draft him to the Vikings where that's

like all their linebackers are. Like, Blake Cashman is a normal linebacker. But like Andrew Van Van Ginkle is like an edge player who moonlights as an offball guy. And then Eric Wilson is an offball guy who moonlights as an edge player. And so if he's just in the room with those two, I can totally see the world where he actually does become like a pretty useful piece. Can we use this opportunity to address otherwise not needle moving news, which is that Jamal Adams is a Viking now, which...

That almost goes to more to my point of like, if you're signing Jamal Adams, I question your defense at this point. It's the quintessential Brian Flores heat check where for 31 NFL teams, I might be like, I don't know about this guys. But with Brian Flores, I'm like, ooh, a converted safety to linebacker who likes to blitz and get after the quarterback. Like Brian Flores could probably do some fun shit with this, even if his best years are behind him.

They're literally building the entire plane out of hybrid bodies. Like Andrew Van Ginkle, Eric Wilson, Josh Mattelis is this. Even Byron Murphy being like, is he really best in the slot? Is he really best outside? Like it's, I don't really know. Like, their entire defense is just guys who like don't necessarily have a single home at any one position. I had four total day two picks who I could imagine taking off. One of them is a guy we've talked a lot about and it's just about the fit on the defense.

I mean, if Caden McDonald is good quickly, everybody in the world is going to be talking about that guy. Like he'll be a household name among NFL people by late September. I just can't wait for that one. And that one, it wouldn't be to the same degree as MNWari, but they drafted Caden McDonald's so that the defense can be something different. Like they drafted him to be a little bit different because they Tommy togia and Sheldon Rankin's played really, really well for them last year. But those guys are like shoot the gap, like win through the shoulder, get into the backfield penetration players. Cade McDonald can do that relative to being a nose tackle.

But he's the whole point of taking him is like we're going to sit him here. He's going to eat two blocks and Henry Toa Toa is going to fire right past the guard who's occupied and go kill the running back. And so I think them being able to do that, we did it on draft night, but I'm so excited for Caden McDonald. Another guy that I just think has a huge opportunity. I don't necessarily think it's fair to put this on him, but Derek Moore being the other edge in that defense,

and we've talked about how much the front could use the help. If he hits the ground running, it's going to stand out very, very quickly. He went to Michigan too, which is only going to help the name power potential for a guy who's kicking ass in Detroit. And then this is really unfair. You should not have high expectations for a third round tight end,

but Sam Roush is in Chicago. Why wouldn't you circle that? Like, I'm absolutely going to keep an eye on how Ben Johnson wants to deploy that guy. I mean, yeah, the fact that they lost like a key receiver and then their big addition in terms of skill players was like drafting a third round tight end on a team that already used a bunch of tight ends. It's like they clearly got something in mind for him. So that one I'm also excited for.

I got really giddy just looking through. Somebody's going to break through. It might not be a Swessinger, Eamon-Wory thing where they're two of the stories of the season, but somebody drafted in this range is going to be a big piece of a big-time story. I love trying to figure out who it's going to be. All right, we got plenty more of these, but we're going to quickly take our first break.

All right, Derek, allow me to bring the mood down a little bit. And I don't like to do it because optimism is just the most fun thing at this time of year, but it's lodged pretty deeply in my brain how optimistic we were about the Raiders last year and how regrettable that optimism was at the end of the day. And so if I'm looking for a team that I can imagine being feisty this year, who's just not going to be feisty at all, I don't want to say this to you. but I came away thinking that maybe our preseason optimism in the Tennessee Titans is really unfounded. But that is not the Raiders-ish team that I thought you were going to go for.

So that's interesting. Lay out the case. I want to hear it. I just, okay, let me be clear first. It's pretty, it's harsh to compare anybody to the 2025 Raiders. Because like, midway through the season, we were just debating if that was even an NFL squad. I'm not saying that the Titans are going to redefine. what bad offensive line play looks like

and just be like a wasteland of football, which is what the Raiders were for most of last year. But I just, as badly as I want to believe in Cam Ward, I don't know how much I genuinely believe they have upgraded this team outside of me really, really liking Carnell Tate. But is that enough when you consider, like, and I remember, like, we did this whole thing in the draft process where we were arguing,

I know they're picking in the top five, but should they consider Francis Maui Noah? Should they try to add to this offensive line, even though they've already spent a lot of resources doing it? And then you get to late July, early August, and do you feel actually confident that this is going to be substantially better from the unit that wasn't good enough last year?

I mean, that's where a lot of my concern comes from. I think we can get into how good the big free agents they added are as well, but really, if I'm trying to get more from our guy, Cam Ward in year two, is the offensive line actually substantially improved? And I don't feel confident that it is. So to be clear, this is about the Titans offense, like being the Raiders offense. It's not necessarily about the team overall.

Yeah. When I say the Raiders, I really mean, like right now, I think you could pitch the Titans as like a six to eight win team with the right breaks. But are they really more like a three-day? a five-win team. I mean, I think with the offense, I definitely hear you. Like, J.C. Latham has really never been healthy. Their right card is Cordell Vulsin, who was kicked out of Cincinnati, basically.

Austin Schlottman is going to be a center for them who has never really been like a long-term starter. And Dan Morris still returning a left tackle who they signed him to be average, hopefully last year, and he wasn't even that. And, you know, maybe him getting another year there, even though it's not the same system. Maybe that helps him a little bit. but I do think I can mostly hear you on the offense because I think there's a chance that

I mean what is the best version of this Tennessee Titans offensive line like the 23rd best in the league like even if it's all like sunshine and roses that feels like the best I think worst case they're like the second worst in the entire NFL the worst case is really icky to think about maybe maybe the best case is even better than that

I mean in the best case scenario maybe one of their rookies steals a job Like maybe Pat Coogan is awesome and he's just better than everybody expects him to be right out the gate. And that really helps. So I could even go as far as if I'm really pie in the sky, maybe this is like a league average unit. But that's a degree of optimism that just doesn't feel realistic to me. I think I can also get there. Yeah, just for that.

Because too, like, I think people would want to say like, well, you can look at some of the skill talent on this team and you can start to get yourself there. like Carnal Tate, you know, Wando Robinson, they probably overpaid for, but like is an upgrade over some of what they were getting out of their receiving core last year. Tony Pollard is still a good back. But like last year's Raiders had skill talent. Jacoby Myers was there for the first half of the season. Brock Bowers, I know he was banged up, but like still had a relatively decent season. Michael Mayer is a good second tight end. They spent a top 10 pick on a skill player.

Yeah, and Ashton Jensey is awesome. Like I, it's like I can actually see a lot of the similarities. And this is also a point where I brought him up on our show like who has the most at stake. I think Brian Dable has obviously proven more than we knew what we were going to get out of Chip Kelly last year. But I do think that there's a chance that Brian Kelly is just, or that Brian Dable is just not necessarily an additive factor here for the offense, especially because like I said on that show, all of his best offenses, the quarterback is a weapon in the run game. Cam Ward is just not that. Like, Cam Ward is good at a lot of things. He's just not that kind of player.

And so that challenge mixed with offensive line that unless the environment is awesome and they get some right breaks could be. one of the five or six worse than the NFL. I actually do hear you that this could be a unit that is just not good enough. And even actually to kind of mirror the Raiders stuff, I do think the defense is much improved. But the Raiders defense was what, 14th, 15th-ish last year in terms of DVOA? That's probably the best case scenario for the Titans realistically. That's a really great parallel that I hadn't even considered. I trust Robert Salah to get good results out of this unit. But the Raiders defense was not the issue last year. It was perfectly fine for the level. of talent that it had had it overachieved.

Even if the Titans overachieved, that might not solve the issue. And I want the best for Cam Ward. I want this prediction to age like milk, but I can't shake this feeling like what Tennessee did this offseason is not good enough. I hate to agree with that one, but I do kind of see it. What do you think most needs to go right outside of potentially the offensive line? That to me feels like the big flashing light. but if this actually were to go right for them,

what would it be other than that? I think that is the crux of everything, but Wondell Robinson giving you even close to what the contract stipulates he should. Like if Wondell Robinson is a good player for you, and then for how highly you drafted Carnel Tate, he needs to be a dog, which I have no problem buying that for the record.

My whole issue is like, carnell tate could win every route that he runs and will it matter if cam ward's getting decimated back there so i really think if the offensive line is a pleasant surprise i think this could be okay yeah and especially if wandell robinson plays up to the price tag all right what's your next one all right i'll go back to the defense a little bit last year's 20 last year's 20 25 falcons defense i don't know if i would call them good but they ended up with like being pretty good in some of the advanced metrics, at least like relative to what we thought they were going to be. They were a weird unit. It was a lot of rookies. A lot of young players.

And they ended up 15th in weighted DVOA, 14th in EPA per play and 22nd in success rate. So a little boom and bust, but they were decent. Are you about to name your favorite defense that you watched back on Monday every week? Like, is this the Derek Classen award for surprisingly fun team that I don't get to see on Sundays? It's kind of that.

It's kind of going to be team that, like, I'm, again, I'm not even sure that they're good, but they're going to have like a handful of games this year that end up being pretty good, and they're going to do some funky stuff, and it's going to be better than you think. And I think that that's the Cardinals defense. I think that they have just enough talent and do just enough weird shit that if they are healthy, especially in the back end, I think that they can be like, again, not a unit that is going to win them a bunch of games. Because, again, their schedule is like an absolute hellacious beast.

But I do think that they can be better than I think a lot of people are giving. giving them credit for. Because this is a defense where I just look at some of the talent. Like, if Walter Nolan hits and stays healthy, explosive piece, Josh Sweat was still really good last year. Zaven Collins is like a really nice and unique piece for them on the edge. Obviously, he like flamed out as an off ball linebacker, but has been pretty good on the edge for them. And the secondary, like, I know that they just lost Jalen Thompson, but Buda Baker is still there. Will Johnson played well last year. Garrett Williams has been good when he's healthy. Max Melton and Denzel Burke, I'm not sure either of them are like,

very good number two corners. But if one of those hits and takes a step, that's good. And I even think Daydrian Taylor Demerson is like a solid piece for them. Like they, there's enough talent here for this to be like a defense where we look up in December and we're like, who is 15th in DVOA? And I kind of do think the Cardinals can be that.

Denzel Burke and Daydrian Taylor Demerson are great examples of like the Cardinals have little to no expectation. And those guys were not big time investments. And you're just like, Look at this guy. He's playing really well. Like this is fantastic. And whether or not you need to upgrade from that as the team gets more serious is a problem for another day, clearly.

I can get on board with the idea that there are a lot of guys on the Cardinals roster and particularly on their defense that I will be excited to check in on throughout the season. That might be cold comfort to a Cardinals fan that wants and deserves a better football team. but we alluded to it on a show we did with Mays. Like there are, there's, there's plenty of reason to want to check in on this team and see how they're doing. And for where they've been, I think that's okay.

Yeah. And again, like I, the insane schedule is kind of like a, it's a gift and a curse in a way that like, in terms of winning games for them, it's not going to do a whole, like they're obviously going to lose a lot of these games.

But a lot of these young players getting to play like a really, really good competition probably is good for their long term development in a season where like the wins and losses don't really matter. And also the last thing that I would say like why I feel like this could be Falcons-ish, I mentioned the Falcons were 22nd in success rate, but 14th in EPA per play. Like they were, it was sacks, turnovers, they were getting all that sort of stuff because of some of just the weird stuff that Ulbrook was willing to do up front. The Cardinals didn't necessarily blitz as much as like the Falcons did last year. The Falcons were I think the second or third highest blitzing team in the league. But they do some weird stuff with

their safeties. I do think that there's a chance that like if Nolan remains healthy, they actually do want a blitz more to generate some more one-on-ones for him. Like, I just think that there's a chance that they can be a really frustrating and annoying boom and bust defense. Can I throw you one more Falcons parallel? Yeah. If the season goes the wrong way, the Cardinals might pull the plug on their GM regime the same way the Falcons did. And so the Falcons come out of last year without, you know, Billy Bowman and Xavier Watts and Jailen Walker, all these guys playing really well and it's not enough to save Monty Austin for its job and next year somebody new could be in there figuring out what he

likes and what he doesn't like about this. That's not hard to imagine. It's really not. That's not at all. Like I did not think about like, yeah, long-term GM who is like on his second stint kind of with the coaching staff and all that other stuff. That's a good one. I didn't even have that and it's perfect.

I want to go schematic with you when you were talking about your Byron Murphy take and who that might be and the way that teams want to play defense in 2026, I defer to you on stuff like this. But again, how much did we talk last year about teams not wanting to shake out of nickel and how that shaped so much about the way teams want to do things in the modern NFL? And then I look at personnel trends and who got hired where this off season. My take, if I I'm looking for a buzzword that maybe wasn't a big deal before the season that could be during the season. What if dime is the new nickel?

And what if Jesse Mentor spurs that by going to Baltimore with all the toys that they have to work with? Okay. So now I want to hear which DB do you think they're going to add to the field if like they really become like a big dime team. So I mean, one of them is like a blinking red light that's staring at you in the face because they gave him money. I mean, they sign Jalen Hawkins. So that gives you, I mean, you can do three safety right there with Kyle Hamilton and you have Malachi Stark. So adding Jalen Hawkins to the mix. And I don't want to, I don't want to act as if I don't want to put too much on him. But Chandler Rivers is there. Like I said, he's a day three rookie. I think that's a little unrealistic. But you also have T.J. Tampa.

You have Marlon Humphrey who can do a little bit of everything for you in a day. addition to having Wiggins and Cheeto. And then Kyle Hamilton is like the ultimate church key player. And so it's easy to imagine Roquan Smith being the only linebacker on the field for this team. And maybe you rotate in Teddy Buchanan a little bit as you want to, depending on the situation. But Jesse Minner already ran a ton of dime with the Chargers. I think only three teams in the league last year ran dime more than 20% of the time. The Chargers were one of them.

ironically the Ravens were as well and so a guy that already wants to do that in Jesse Minner is going to a defense that has the personnel to let him do that or do you think I'm off base no I actually think this is really good because we've also already seen proof of concept of some of these players moving around like Kyle Hamilton has played like every position on the defense except for nose tackle it feels like and like you said Marlon Humphrey has played in the nickel before so like if their nickel stuff is you know Wiggins and Humphrey on the outside hamilton's Hamilton is playing in the nickel and then like Starks and Hawkins are your safeties. Well, when they go to dime, Hamilton just becomes your dime backer. And then Humphrey moves inside and then maybe you can just put Chito Ouzier back out on the outside. Like that actually does make a lot of sense for me because too, I think if you're going to be lighter and play some of these two high things and play some of these lighter boxes, whoever you're bringing in as those like nickel and dime backer players, they've got to be able to, they've got to be big and be able to play against the run. Marlon Humphrey will do that and has done that at a lot of points of his career. And Kyle Hamilton is as good at that for his position as anybody in the entire league. And so I actually do love this.

I know Marlon Humphrey has his flaws. And I understand that. He's six foot two ten. And he'll get after it. Yes. You're not giving up size having Marlon Humphrey on the field. And yeah, Kyle Hamilton is obviously six four, 220. And this is going to sound really simplistic.

But the whole Seahawks thing really clicked into place for me, when I realized they're just playing base with a with a 220 pound linebacker. Like that it's not this highfalutin thing. They just have a player that lets them cheat. And what like what is Kyle Hamilton if not a player that lets you cheat? So I mean, in essence, would he be functioning as a super athletic nickel linebacker? Basically. But if the Ravens play a shitload of dime because of that, I can't say I'm going to be surprised.

And I actually think too, body type-wise, this would look a lot like what the Rams did when they are a team that like to go into their dime stuff. Because they're when they play dime, they're two like more inside players are obviously Quentin Lake. And then Jalen McCullough, who is more of a safety but comes down in is like their dime player. Those guys are like very well built in just the same way that Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey are. And so I think it could look like that in terms of the DB construction. And then the difference is the Rams. could still only do certain stuff out of dime because their linebackers just aren't like elite coverage players.

Roquan Smith at his best and if he's really getting after it is the best thing other than Fred Warner in terms of like what you're getting out of coverage. So I do think that there's a chance that they could do that. I think a lot of this still hinges on like, is the front going to be good enough to allow you to do some of this dime stuff? Because I do think part of the calculation is like having dime players like Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton who are big enough to play the run matters, but you still got to buy them a little bit of time and a little bit of space because they are smaller than a real linebacker.

And that part of the calculus I think I'm going to be interested in with the Ravens. I'm glad you said that because I did want to bring up Namdi Matabiki is on the practice field. I'm sure they're going to bring him along slowly. We'll see what it means. But you're so right. This whole pipe dream hinges on him being something resembling the guy we know for from before last year. And we've said it before,

but if that's the case, it changes everything about how I feel about the Ravens. And I think, too, even the edge players, I think are really different than some of those other dime teams like the Chargers, you know, Khalil Mack being what he is,

and then Tui-Tooey-Tooey-Pelot-2 is like a just monster run defender over for the Chargers. The Seahawks, obviously having like four guys who are gargoyles who set the edge incredibly well. And then the Rams. The Rams,

obviously last year had like Jared Verus, Byron Young can do this. this Josiah Stewart off the bench I thought was good as a rookie like their edges could really cave stuff in the Ravens guys like that's never really been what Trey Hendrickson does uh that's not really what Mike Green is he's like an undersized player they drafted Zion Young and I do think that if he can really come on and be that that could actually go a pretty long way for helping them there you mentioned the Rams too one more thing I wanted to say they led the league and dime usage last year we talked a lot about what Chris Shula was doing there I know that the Ravens wouldn't be the

first team to do this. If you're a Rams fan listening to this, I know they were one of the best teams in the league last year and they used a lot of dime. But if Jesse Menner revitalizes this defense and the Ravens get back to being a league power doing some of this stuff, it's going to be a talking point on shows like this and all over the league community all season. So I'm calling my shot a little bit here. It's not hard to imagine that. All right, before we keep going, we're going to take one more quick break. All right. You got any more, Derek?

I've got one more. I've got a player one. And this is one I basically already did on the breakout show. I think O'Marion Hampton as this year's Jonathan Taylor is like pretty easy to imagine. And obviously the Jonathan Taylor thing gets like ruined by the fact that the second half of the season was insane. And I'm not necessarily predicting that Justin Herbert is going to have a million injuries and the whole offense is going to be ruined.

But I think it's not that hard to envision a world where the, chargers are like a top six, seven offense. And the offensive line looks much better than it ever has. And Mike McDaniel is able to really gear stuff up in the run game that allows a player like Hampton to have runways. Because like Jonathan Taylor is a great running back for a lot of the reasons. But he's at his best when you can just give him a runway and he just goes and makes one guy miss and then he's just gone.

And I do think that Omerian Hampton has like a very similar skill set in that way. And so I'm just imagining the world where I think it's really. easy to get like, oh, well, they also brought in Keaton Mitchell and they're going to do all this stuff in the passing in with Ladd McConkey and the Kyle Shanahan, you know, Sean McVeigh or like the Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel offense finally has like a real quarterback. But I think Omerian Hampton being this just like having a season that is like, oh my God, he's just running away and hitting home runs. I think that that is not that hard to imagine for me. My heart very literally skipped a beat when you said Jonathan Taylor. Like if that's the high end projection for what Hampton could be, I'm, I very much would like to

watch that. Thank you. And I think it is like and I think that for a couple of reasons. I think obviously, you know, Hampton didn't go super, super high in the draft. Like he still won in the first round, but it wasn't like he was an Ashton Gentier, Bejohn Robinson. Neither did Jonathan Taylor. And part of that was some of him like not being, I think, a super reliable passing down player early in his career, especially at Wisconsin. Obviously, I think he's overcome that in the NFL. He's been pretty good at that now. But I think Hampton just in terms of like the build, the top end speed, some of the breakaway ability, some of his just like running between the tackles ability that I think Jonathan Taylor also has. Like I just think there's similarities there. And then I know the big difference

is going to be the actual structure of the offense. Like I don't necessarily think that this is just going to be a gun inside zone RPO team the way that the Colts were. But again, I trust Mike McDaniel to find ways to get a player like Hampton a bunch of runways. And I do think that. if he gets runways, he's going to find a way to the end zone quite a bit. I knew going in that I wanted to hand out an award for the Devin Lloyd projection for 2026 player who breaks out and becomes a household name and makes himself a lot of money. It was harder to find a one-to-one comparison just because it's rare for a guy like

Devin Lloyd to not have his option picked up. So for a first round pick with a path to that much playing time to be in a contract year, it was it was tricky for me to find a guy who fit that precisely. But I did come away with two names from the 2023 draft. So guys going into their fourth seasons who have not fully have really not broken out at all, in my opinion, maybe you can you can correct me if you think I'm wrong. But guys who I think are going to generate a lot more conversation this year. than they have in previous years.

And the easy one for me, because it's mainly injury that's been holding him back, can this be a healthy season for Coliza Cancy in Tampa? I mean, the bucks need it because they like, when he, especially Vita Vea keeps,

you know, on this trajectory where he's in the middle of a contract dispute. Exactly. And they still, like, I know that they upgraded their interior this year, like they brought in Aishon Robinson, I think Rakeem Nunez Rochez is back.

Those guys are not pass rushers. Like, if they're going to get some sort of, of interior pressure it has to be from a guy like Colagic Hansi and he had what seven and a half sacks in like 12 13 games in his second year like he was kind of what you wanted him to be and I think with a player like him there's always going to be you're making a trade in the run game right like he's he's just going to get moved sometimes but you're going to hope that he just gets into the backfield enough times I hope that he is good enough to to where he's a

player who like we feel like he can be healthy we feel like he can hold up and play 17 games because I think that's the other thing I don't think it's necessarily coming back from like a big injury like last year, you just kind of worry with a player that undersized at that position. Like can he just play 17 games consistently? Or is he just going to, is it going to be 12 games here, 11 games here,

you know, that sort of deal with him? I think the Bucks picked up his option, which the, he's shown what he can do when healthy and the upside is high enough that it's worth doing that. Like I said, it's rare for guys that have been productive in their rookie contracts to not get their option picked up. I think that was more.

a product of Devin Lloyd playing linebacker than anything, but I do still think this could be a very lucrative year for Colizia Cancy. And also, like, the bar for what it takes to even get your option picked up a lot of the time is usually not that high, like, because it's still pretty cheap for teams to, like, hang on and just do that. Like, it's, again, we joked about it on the second year X Factor show we just did. The fact that, like, Quentin Johnston is what he is and got his option picked up is, like, the bar is usually not that high for teams to go and be able to willing to do it.

Speaking of which, the Packers also picked up Lucas Van Ness's option for his fifth year. That one's more surprising, I think. And to that point, if not now, then win. Micah Parsons is going to miss time. Roshan Gary's not in Green Bay anymore. They kind of need him to be something at least over the first half of the season. And so like I said, I mean, the options picked up. His multi-year outlook is fine for the time being.

but if you're talking about earning potential for the second contract and beyond, if not now, then when? Like it kind of needs to be that sort of year for Lucas Van Ness. Yeah, I think if the show instead of second year X factors, it was like other rookie contract X factors. Lucas Van Ness would have been like top of the list. Like the fact that, again, yeah, they're not going to have Michael Parsons who Michael Parsons might be the most important defensive player in the entire NFL right now. just like the delta between what the defense can be when he's out there versus when it's not. And part of that was like Lucas Fanness was not healthy last year and just I think has not, he was a little bit better last year than I think he had been at certain points in his career,

but still certainly not what you would have wanted him to be when he was a first round pick. So this really is a now or never sort of situation for a guy like this. Lucas Fanness is really a great answer for this because similar to Devin Lloyd, not to shit on Devin Lloyd, but we've talked about like how much of that was real versus how much of it was scheme and opportunity. Well, if Lucas Van Ness has nine or ten sacks this year and a lot of them are hustle sacks and some of it is a byproduct of not having anybody else there

to rush the passer, particularly while Parsons is injured, he can still make himself a lot of money without necessarily taking that next step into being like a bona fide edge. You know what I mean? That's a good point too. Like he doesn't even have to be special necessarily. He just has to.

And again, I think a lot of it is held. I think he looked a little bit better last year just was not healthy. If he just has like a normal healthy eight sack year, no matter how those eight sacks come, he probably is going to get paid. Get on the box score, my man. All right. I have one more.

Do you have any more? No, I think I'm all dried out here. Okay. That's fine because you can help me with this. I've wanted to find a way to bring this on to the show ever since I saw it. I got to shout out our guy Ruben Clay in the Discord because this is such a a fun thought exercise for how we think about the teams in the preseason and how it winds up going. So, Derek.

And let's be clear before I start. Last year's Super Bowl matchup, I think, was a really rare one. The Seahawks were plus 6,000 to win the Super Bowl at this time last year. The Patriots were plus 8,000. It's one of the longest shot Super Bowl matchups we've had in a really long time. but Ruben Clay in our Discord, he ordered this year's preseason odds based on last year's finish,

if that makes sense. So in this world, where the Seahawks and the Patriots were located last year in the preseason would be akin to a Super Bowl matchup this year of Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. That's how the betting markets saw Seattle and New England heading into the season,

just to give you some perspective. That's really funny because I feel like too I was going to say there's something similar about Tampa and Seattle but I don't even know if that's true But okay I guess honestly if you're trying to make the case Indianapolis's offense being something like what the Seahawks defense is is probably what you're hoping for out of those two things In the interest of trying to find a long shot that you feel good about

I just I wanted to look at this year's longish shots And for the purposes of this, I decided, because like I said, if we get another plus 6,000 versus plus 8,000 Super Bowl this year, I'll eat my shoe. Like, I just, I don't believe we're going to get that two years in a row. But if we're considering a long shot to be a team with plus 2,000 odds or higher, I think that's realistic because I went back and looked, including this year, only three champions in the last 15 years have had worse odds than that. the 2011 Giants, the 2017 Eagles, and last year's Seahawks. So plus 2000 is pretty rare territory for a Super Bowl team to be anyway. And that puts you working with a list of Green Bay, Dallas, Chicago, Jacksonville. And then if you really want to get wild, you could throw in Minnesota, Washington, Tampa, Indianapolis.

of that group of teams who you liken to be this year's out of nowhere Super Bowl contender I think the AFC is trickier like my heart of hearts says the Jacksonville Jaguars but I've and I actually I do think it probably would be them even if I've expressed a lot of concern

about what the offensive line is going to be so the AFC is probably them the NFC I actually like that that cluster I think is hard to pick which one I would probably prefer because like I think you can see the case for the bears. I actually really don't see the case for the Green Bay Packers. Like I'd really struggle to get there with them this year.

You mentioned the Cowboys, correct? Yes. That seems like the most likely. If we're trying to pick a team that is like comes out of the middle of the pack and was a middling team last year, but one of their units is on freaking fire and is like kind of revolutionizing the league in some way or at least on the forefront of what it's going to be. it's going to be Dallas in their offense.

Like I don't know if I would necessarily, like if I'm ranking offenses pick Dallas number one, but they are one of the five or six teams that if they are the best by the end of the season, it would not be that shocking. And I do think that they have like the right recipe of things to be on the forefront for what NFL football is going to look like. One, they've got an offensive line and a quarterback that I think is just allows them to do anything. But I also think we're moving more toward the world where having like an X receiver really matters. George Pickens is about as good as that role right now, I think that you can get. And I also think right now if you look around the league quietly, like a lot of the best ones,

or at least a lot of the ones that I want to bet on, have a fullback. And this combination of like what the flexibility of a fullback gives you in the two back sets, on top of also having the X receiver, on top of having a quarterback who I think is incredibly good. And it's the second year in the system, same way it was with Mike McDonald's his defense last year. That is probably the one that if I'm picking it, That is probably the team. My brain can't let me go there with Dallas until. Not until we've seen some proof of concept.

That's my own baggage, by the way. Like, that's not anybody else's problem, but me. It all makes sense on paper. I'd just like to see it in practice for a month or two before I'm all the way in. I actually, to, I agree with you on the AFC side of things, it's kind of interesting to me that the Jaguars are plus 2,700 to win the Super Bowl. I mean, I don't know that I'm terribly high on them, but for a team that won 13 games last year and has a lot of the key pieces back, I was a little surprised by that number. That one I'm also curious on.

I mean, I guess it's, I wonder how much of that is like seeing a player like all pro Devin Lloyd leave. And like, again, I think I've expressed my can like that that that is not as big of a concern for me. But in terms of the betting markets, I could see that being a big thing. And then also like, again, that offensive line, I don't know. But I still think that of that cluster that was really the only. only a FC team. I feel like you mentioned other than like maybe the Colts who I would definitely rather have the Jaguars if I'm picking between those two. The Colts are plus 5,000. If you want to get wild with it, the Steelers are plus 6500. I didn't mention the Steelers.

I don't know. If you want to go there, we can go there. I don't know. I don't know if I want to do that one either. My big point of contention, which is funny, here today in the summer, I'm pretty down on the Packers. I'm not into the Packers right now. But imagine a world where some of the things we've outlined take like if Matthew golden is is awesome in year two and the offensive line kind of comes together and then midway through the season Micah Parsons and Tucker craft are rounding into being the guys that we're familiar with the Packers could be mid for like nine weeks and conceivably be a completely different team in December. That is a very optimistic view of things. But if I was looking for like a long shot, I'm intrigued by the fact that the Packers could just be a completely different team in the late half of the year than they are right now. I think I can see the world just because Parsons is as good as he is.

And it's a quarterback that I trust. It's a play caller that I trust. I think for me it was just that there are so many more of these other teams like in this NFC range that I think if I was stacking them, I might put them like third or fourth. Like again, if I'm picking one, it's probably Dallas. I think I might put the bears ahead of them. And then maybe I would go to Packers. So it's not like totally out of the realm of the possibility.

I just feel like their ceiling as a team is a little bit capped this year. Now just get ready for the Super Bowl, what is? Super Bowl 61 matchup of Saints Titans with plus 8,000 and plus 12,000 odds to get there. I don't know. After last year, anything feels possible. That's our best stab at the 2026 version of 2025 things. It was a good mix of nerdy and completely vibes based. I think we did a decent job with that.

And a good mix of players, good mix of teams, good mix of bad, good mix of good. Yeah, I think we kind of cover our bases here. As I said at the top of the show, just keep an eye on the feed. Robert is all over the place. He's already got dispatches from the Cardinals and the Rams. He'll be with the Chargers. He'll be with the Cowboys. he's going to Seattle and Houston.

I mean, he's visiting with 21 of the teams in the league and he'll have content coming out of all of those stops. So please keep an eye on the feed. We got plenty more coming your way as well. Until then, for Derek, I'm Dave. We appreciate it. We'll talk to you all next time. Thanks for tuning in.

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