The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - 49ers-Eagles and Bengals-Chiefs best bets

Episode Date: January 28, 2023

Michael Beller and Austin Mock return to break down the NFC and AFC Championship Games from a gambling perspective on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Austion on Twitter: @amock419Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube1:45 49ers-Eagles13:14 Bengals-Chiefs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hey, everybody, what's up? Welcome in to The Athletic Football Show. It is our championship round gambling edition of TAFS. Michael Beller and Austin Mock here with you. We are going to talk through both games that are coming our way on Sunday. NFC championship game, Eagles and 49ers, AFC championship game, Bengals and Chiefs. We'll talk about both of them.

Might not necessarily have plays for both, but hey, there's only two games on the schedule. So I think we can find our way to talking about both these games as we get ready for championship weekend and the Super Bowl coming on its heels. Austin, what's going on, man? How are you doing? Doing good. Excited for these games. I mentioned before the show, going into Sunday, you know, we had six teams that were basically better than everybody all year. Those were the six teams remaining going into Sunday. And then I would argue that the teams remaining were the ones playing the best down the show. stretch. I know Eagles with the Jalen Hurts injury, but Cincinnati's been cooking. I know the Mahomes injury will get into that, but San Francisco's been cooking. I'd say over the last second half of the year, these were the best four. And yeah, it's the, we got a couple games left,

and it should be awesome. Yeah, three games still left in this football season. And it feels like we certainly have two good matchups we know this week. And regardless of who ends up winning those matchups. We're going to have a hell of a matchup in Super Bowl 56. So let's get into it, Austin. Let's start with the first game of the day. That is the NFC championship game. 49ers going to Philly to take on the Eagles. Eagles are two and a half point favorites in this game. The total 46 and a half as we sit here on Thursday morning. It's an important note. It's Thursday morning by the time you're listening to this lines maybe change half a point, a point whatever. But we're going to talk about it as it is right now. Eagles minus two and a half, 46 and a half.

What do you like here if you like anything? Yeah, I don't love a lot this weekend. Again, when you have two games, kind of, that's what you run into. But I do like the over a little bit here at 46.5. I don't know if we're kind of underestimating the Eagles offense with the Jalen Hurts injury. He looked totally 100% good to go. Or if we're just overrating the 49ers defense. but like we score points in this league.

You got to like, it's so hard to play defense that well for so long. And I know the 49ers have done it, but I'm going to, we all know, Dak Prescott didn't play his best game. There were interceptions. You know, they, I'm not going to say they moved the ball because they didn't do great. But when Tony Pollard was still in the game, I'm not going to say that like Dallas was moving the ball at will, but it kind of seemed like they, I think they had a good game plan.

I think they were able to, like, stress the defense a little bit. But once Pollard went out, it was just like, all right, C.D. Lam's the only guy that can really hurt us with anything. Let's just focus on him.

That's not going to be the case. The Eagles have weapons like every, like, it's like their backups are weapons. Like, this team is just perfectly built right now. J-1 Hertz's running ability, I think is going to be a difference maker.

Dak Prescott is mobile, but he doesn't, really he's not a willing runner. They don't feature that very much. So I think there's, I think there's some upside here with the Eagles. And on the flip side, I know Brock Purdy has been great and they didn't play all that great against the, the Cowboys. But again, I'm going to take a little bit of a by-low spot here on the Niners offense. I think Brock Purdy can get some intermediate throws against the Eagles linebackers. So, yeah, I think both teams can move the ball a little bit.

And Philly, both of these teams are just incredibly difficult. to defend. And there's just weapons everywhere. And I just, I don't know, it just seems like a game where over, I make this game a shade over 47, so at 46 and a half, worth a stab for me. Yeah, the total for me is not really getting my juices flowing. If forced to play, I'd actually probably go opposite you and go at the under, but that would be, like I said, truly a force, because it's just not one that I feel really all that excited about on either side here. But there were some things you said in favor of the over that has me trending in a direction for my favorite play of this championship weekend. Nets Eagles minus two and a half. This has been the best team in the NFC all season long.

This has been a team that really early on in the years separated themselves and put themselves into the elite tier as a newcoming team to do that. We came into this year knowing the chiefs were going to be in the elite tier of teams, knowing the bills were going to be in the elite tier of teams. We had a feeling that maybe the Bengals could be there. a handful of other teams that we thought could be there that played their way out of that group, Green Bay, the Rams, the Buccaneers. We didn't think that it would necessarily be the case for the Eagles, but they played into the elite tier teams very early on this season and then stayed there.

And I think if you just look top to bottom at the 22 starters plus the handful of guys who aren't in the starting lineup who are key contributors for every team, that this Eagles team is the most talented roster. There's really no hole anywhere on this team. and when you look at the offense specifically, they have so many answers for what defense is, even the best defense in the NFL in San Francisco,

will throw at them. There are so many different things they can do and you brought it up with Dallas, especially after the Tony Pollard injury, it's like Dallas just doesn't have those answers the way that Philly does. Philly can do what they do with A.J. Brown with Devante Smith,

with their run game, Jalen Hertz, and Miles Sanders behind that offensive line that is an elite level offensive line. Dallas Goddard has turned into a huge, weapon for this passing game. There's really nothing that Philly cannot do offensively. And so what that makes me feel good about coming into this game is that as great as San Francisco's defenses, as great of a game plan, we know Domingo Ryan's is going to draw up as much pressure as they can

put on you in the pocket or outside the pocket because of what that pass rush brings led by Nick Bosa, best linebacker group in the NFL. Philly always seems to have an answer for something. And there's always a way that they can pivot off of what the defense wants to do. This line really just asks them to win the game. I do think that they win this game. I feel very good about the Eagles here, minus two and a half day. I picked to win the Super Bowl coming into the playoffs. Nothing they've shown us or nothing any other team has shown us.

Makes me want to budge off that. I think they take care of business on Sunday. Yeah, I lean that way as well. I think it's funny you said like they early in the season, And they kind of, they took probably the best team in the NFC title, maybe four games into the year. Just because, I mean, as early as you could realistically give a team that title, they had it. Yeah, because, you know, San Fran had injuries early. They had, what, they lost to the Bears, and then they lost to Denver right after that.

The Rams were a mess from day one. So, yeah, it was like a month into the season. And I feel like it kind of got stale. I was like, ah, you know, and then the Jalen Hurts injury at the end of the year. It was like, I don't know if they're still here. Brock Purdy came on. I think we are forgetting that this team is just, like you said, they're, like, perfectly built. Like, what would you say their weakest point is?

I have some, like, unit grades. Like, from what PFF is throwing people, like, what positions they play? What would you say their weakest, you know, grade is? And this does take into, like, longer than just this season, like, player projections. But, like, what do you think their weakest unit is? Yeah, like, middle of the defense. The safeties are the lowest, lowest group. But everybody, like, they have multiple groups in, like, the top 10.

Like, their running backs are weak. But, like, you know, if you're going to be weak at a position, running backs, you know, not bad to be weak at. Like, definitely when you have a quarterback that can pull it at any moment and make the running backs, you know, better. So they are perfectly built. I'd say Sam Fran's, like, close. But, you know, as good as Brock Prady's. I just don't think they have the playmaker quarterback. So it's tough.

Going on the road, I think the Eagles have the better team. I think the Eagles have the better quarterback. Just a lot of things pointing towards the Eagles here. 15 and 1 this season with Jalen Hertz as the quarterback. They lost two games with Gardner & Monshu starting in place of the injured Jailen Hertz. 15 and 1 when they have their starting quarterback, healthy and out there. And you want to go back to like the middle of last season when Nick Siriani gave up play calling duties, handed that off and just what a different team they looked like in the second half of last season on.

Then they go out, they make the AJ Brown move. They add C.J. Gardner Johnson right before the start of the season. This is a team that just makes savvy moves all over the place. It's on Reddick. Another great addition. Howie Roseman is going to be the executive of the year this year because of all these moves that he made in one contained offseason. Really remarkable how they were able to find the exact pieces to take what was a good team, a quality enough playoff team last year,

but still a team that I had some obvious holes and turn them into the elite of the elite in the league this season. I just, you know, the 49ers are awesome. Maybe this looks a little bit different if we're talking about Jimmy Garoppolo, although Brock Purdy has basically just been Jimmy Garapolo with a little bit more athleticism

since he's taken over as the starter. 49ers are a hell of a team that can be right back in this spot again next year. They've got a whole lot of charms. I could certainly be wrong. But the Eagles, man, there is not a weakness on this team anywhere. They have answers on offense.

They have answers on defense. And I think ultimately that's what it's going to come down to, that we're just talking about a team that is an A plus incompleteness versus one that's maybe an A minus incompleteness. So I think ultimately the Eagles bring that to bear, cover the two and a half, and move on to the Super Bowl. Let's get over to the AFC here, Austin, for our other picks or plays of championship round.

Now, this one has been all over the place. For obvious reasons, Patrick Mahomes dealing with that high ankle sprain, he was able to play through it, play effectively enough in getting the Chiefs over the hump against the Jaguars. Last week, the Bengals are not the Jaguars. And so the Bengals, a team that has beaten the Chiefs now three times in a row, three times over the last 13 months or so. They're going to try to make it four to get back to the Super Bowl again here this season. Chiefs minus one right now.

Again, this has been all over the place. It opened as like Chiefs minus one and a half, right? Am I right about that? Yeah. Right, it was right there. Chiefs minus one and a half. And then we pushed all the way up to Bangles. The highest I saw was Bengals minus two and a half. Did you see anywhere where it got to three?

I saw someone say that it touched three for a second. I never saw it. But if it did touch three, it was gone immediately. Right. So we've been just swinging all over the place over the last couple of days. And now here we are as you and I are talking about it with the Chiefs back to favored by a point. We've got some encouraging. Zapruder-ish video from the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes practicing on that high ankle sprain so far this week.

So that helps the Chiefs get back to the favorite in this one. They are minus one. 47 and a half the total in this game. Anything for you as we sit here a couple of days out from this one kicking off? This one's tough. I think, like, you know, I'm not going to say something that's groundbreaking here. But, you know, if this is a healthy Mahomes, this number is not. not anywhere close to this, and I think this total is low as well.

I'd be more inclined to, for me, it's chiefs or nothing. And it's not, I don't really want to get involved with the total because there could be some pace issues. The chiefs play a little bit slower to, you know, help out Mahomes. Maybe they run the ball a little bit more to take, you know, a little bit of pressure off of him. I don't really want to get involved there. do think it's a little bit low,

but I just, there's too many uncertainties. I'd rather just, if I'm going to get involved where I need Mahomes to play, I'd rather just be on them to win. You know, whether that's minus one or pick,

it's kind of all over the place here. I'm going to wait around. The video looks encouraging. I don't know. I don't know. Yes. Like, what's your opinion? Like,

I thought he was going to be limping, like, pretty poorly. I don't, I don't know what you, I expected it to look much worse. Even that slow jog, I don't know if you saw the practice video, practice field video.

He looked okay, I know it was a super slow jog, but I think he's going to be fine from a pocket standpoint. I think it's going to be a little bit difficult if he has to start moving outside of the pocket to make some throws. But I don't know. Like, what's your opinion on like, you know, what's your, I guess your analysis of the videos? What do you think?

I mean, the videos look fine. but I mean, Austin, we know what we know what high ankle sprains are. We've had a lot of experience with this sort of injury over the last few years. Like, if this is week five, Mahomes isn't playing. If this is week 10, Mahomes isn't playing. And that just has me coming back to the bangles. Like I just like, like, this is an obviously compromised Mahomes. And 80% Patrick Mahomes is still a top five.

quarterback in the NFL without question. But 80% Patrick Mahomes versus 100% Joe Burrow, that might be what you need to swing the quarterback battle in favor of Cincinnati. Now, I'm not trying to sit out. I'm not saying that that's a referendum on these quarterbacks against one another going forward because 100% Patrick Mahomes. I want to be very clear about this. Healthy Patrick Mahomes, unquestionably, the best quarterback, the best player in the NFL.

I'm not doing this. I'm not playing the, oh, Mojones or this guy game that we want to play every year. and there's a reason why it's a different guy every year. It's because a lot of guys can do it for one year, but the special ones can do it for seven years. And that's what we're seeing out of Patrick Mahomes. But if he is not healthy, if he's not 100%, that could be the difference in this game.

And I just, I come back to, I just keep, I can't, I can't get away from that. I can't get away from the fact that this Bengals team is fucking awesome. And getting to play a compromised Mahomes could be all they need. to be the better team. And so I'm with you. Right now I'm staying away.

I'm not making a play on this. But ultimately, I lean in the direction of Bengals plus one because we have a lot of experience with high ankle sprains. And if he's not able to be that, you know, creation style quarterback that we've seen from him so effectively in his entire career, I do think that takes some of the plays off the board that they are going to want to be able to pull off. Yeah. I mean, it's kind of like an impossible game to grasp.

It is. That's why I don't want to play anything. Truly, I don't. Right. Like, we're not near a key number. You know, we're floating into zero land. Nothing really matters one,

one to zero to minus one. I think it'd be a little bit different if we weren't near a key. Like, if that three did pop up and you got that, I think that would have been an auto. Because, like, here's the thing with me. I thought that that was,

ridiculous and in hindsight there was some like chatter it was nobody like reputable but it was like oh I don't know if he's going to be able to go this was on like Monday and that's when it hit the two and a half maybe touch three but like in hindsight if Chad Henney had to start this game

I'd make it like four and a half so like if you're telling me that like you I could have got a three like you know we went too far in my opinion there I think this is fair with the uncertainty I think the line is fine.

Like, you know, it's one of those things where I think if it is two and a half, then I think you have some, like, edge on the money line for the chiefs, or you can even play the two and a half, you know, if you want to. And if it was like chiefs minus two and a half, I feel like then, you know, the Bengals money line is, is, you know, appetizing then. I think we're just, I think this is a good job by the market, just kind of, we're just going to sit here. And I really don't think, like, do you think it moves?

Like, do you think there's any news that happens? or video, I guess it's going to have to be video. It would have to be dramatic, right? It would have to be Mahomes running like a 4-4-40 or Mahomes like trying to just walk back to the locker room after practice and like collapsing into a heap. That's what I'm trying to think of like what's going to change my mind. Like there was a little bit of optimism

because I saw him walk down two steps and I saw him doing some light, you know, calisthenics and the slowest of jogs on the practice field. So, yeah, it's tough. For me, it is cheeser-not just because, like, if he was healthy, what do you think this line is? Three. Yeah, I was, I was thinking if, like, three,

like maybe you've got a three-and-a-half, but I feel like that's probably a buy point for a lot of people with the Bengals. So, you know, one-and-a-half points for his ankle, is that enough? I don't know, you know. That's the grand question. If you knew the answer, you could be a rich person.

Yeah, be Marty McPly all over again. Yeah. I don't know, man. I just keep... Do you think there's an advantage that, like, Andy Reid, Eric Mianami, they can scheme up something more? And like, on the flip side of that, Bengals don't know how mobile he is. So, like, is there an advantage there? I mean, or is it outweighed by his, like, I'm not going to sit here and say for sure no, but man, I just,

uh, any, anything that they can scheme up is not going to be better than fully healthy Mahomes. Right. Yeah. And we've seen a very flexible Cincinnati team all season, you know, offensively and defensively. We've been a very flexible, comfortable and adjustment Cincinnati team all season long. Yeah. One thing I keep going back to about the Bengals, and this has kind of been the Bengals you know, schick for the last two years. I know they weren't to the level that they are this year.

Like this year, they're actually a great to elite team, mostly elite for the whole second half of this season. Last year, they really weren't that yet, ever. But like two weeks ago, they needed a 98-yard fumble return to beat the Ravens, like without Lamar Jackson. Like that, like, do we get one of those games from their offense where the, like, I know the Ravens defense was starting to play better down the stretch, but like they weren't like world beaters the whole year or anything like that. It's just one of those, like, do you get a weird burrow? Like we saw it last year like in the playoffs. They didn't score all that much. You know, they weren't lighting it up in the 30s every game. But they just, they stress it like the Buffalo game plan. They just,

I've never, like, it's hard to see two, you know, great elite teams go out of. each other and see with the ease that the Bengals had in that game. Like, they, they called off the dogs. Like, they could have scored 40 in that game. I really believe they could have. So what Bengals are we going to get, like, if we get the elite burrow in Bengals, it's going to be really hard for me to see that the Mahomes with the injury happens. But if you get the Bengals where they, I don't know what it is, they kind of just

like sputter at times. There's a reason why we can keep going back and forth on this. Right. Because it's just two great teams, so many unknowns, two great quarterbacks, even with Mahomes hurt injured. That's why I'm putting all my gambling eggs in the Eagles basket here. I just feel I feel so much better about that. And like to the point where like if I had two units to play on Sunday and I was originally planning on doing one on each game, I would just put both of them on Philly. Yeah. And that's into my next point. Like there's you don't need to

get into this Cincinnati, Kansas City game before the game. Like there's live, you know, there's live betting. If you want to watch the first quarter, first two drives of Patrick. McCombs get a feel for it. Like that is 100% like you're allowed to do that. You do not have, like you are not forced to have pregame action here. So that's probably going to be my route

in this game. Because like I said, like you said, unless he's timed to 4-440 here, you know, and we get video of that or I see him barely being able to walk around. I can't get involved. I just, it's too much of an unknown right now.

I need to see him on the field. All right, man, that's going to do it. We've got a hell of a Sunday coming our way. Hell of a championship weekend. Eagles and 49ers, Chiefs and Bengals. Four awesome teams, very easily could say. No disrespect to the bills. The four best teams in the NFL this season,

as it should be here in championship weekend. Thanks so much for listening here. Robert Mays, Nate Tice, they will be with you Sunday night, right when we call it a game for Chiefs and Bengals. Those guys coming to you to recap the championship games. live on YouTube. Please subscribe to our YouTube page if you are not already subscribe. There's a link to it in the show

description. So does boom right there, click it and subscribe. Subscribe to the Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show is where you can do that. Ratings, reviews. We love reading those as well. So please go ahead, do all that, and get ready for a great Sunday ahead. For Austin Mock, I'm Michael Beller.

Thanks so much for joining us. Good luck this weekend. Happy gambling. We'll talk to you soon. This was The Athletic. football show.