The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - A Seat at the Table: The 10 true Super Bowl contenders at the start of the 2026 season

Episode Date: August 21, 2026

Get your tickets for our LIVE show at Lincoln Hall: https://lh-st.com/shows/09-01-2026-the-athletic-football-show-with-robert-mays/King Arthur's Table. Table Mountain. Mesa Verde. Teufelstisch. These are just four famous tables known the world over. Could the TAFS Contender's Table join their ranks? Likely not, but that won't stop us from asking the question. And it certainly won't stop us from bringing back our favorite bit from 2025 with improvements for the 2026 season. Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman introduce the initial batch of legitimate Super Bowl contenders on this episode of The Athletic Football show by giving 10 teams a Seat at the Table.Join The Athletic Football Show Discord Server: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @RobertMaysFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. The table is back. Today is our setting the table episode. I explained the rules in the intro a little bit later. We're not going to get into them here, but we did this last year, establishing a contenders table heading into the season.

Really fun exercise a year ago, one that we learned some lessons from. So you'll hear about the tweaks that are coming to the process about how we're going to shape the table over the course of the season. But me, Dave and Derek, today, picked what we think are the 10 teams, most deserving of contender status

on the eve of the 2026 season. A little bit of housekeeping before we start the episode. September 1st, Lincoln Hall in Chicago live show. The Winspool Draft is happening with an audience. You guys can come watch the Winspool draft be a part of it.

That's what we're doing on September 1st, 7.30. Tickets are available on the Lincoln Hall website. The link to that is in the description below. Tickets are going fast. So if you want them, They are going to run out sooner rather than later. So please grab yours now if you are interested in coming. We'd love to see you.

We're going to do a little Q&A after. We're going to be doing some meet and great after. The venue has a really nice space at the front where we'd love to hang out with you guys after it's done. So please grab your tickets to the live show now. For now, let's get to the setting the table conversation with me, Dave, and Derek. Here it is. I've been looking forward to this all summer.

Bringing back the table. for those of you guys who were unfamiliar with us doing this last year, we had an exercise that we did right around this time in the calendar where we picked the 10 teams that we thought belonged to the contender table. It was really one of the earlier shows that we did the three of us together.

Yeah, it was a blast. It was two or three weeks into training camp. It was very early. It was like our first fight. Yeah. Our first fight was a married couple, which is always good. We're bringing the table back this year.

So for those of you guys who were not familiar with the exercise last year, we're doing some of the stuff the same and some of it a little bit different. So we still today are going to try to whittle the contender list down to 10 teams. We all have to agree on the 10 teams. That is similar to what it was like

last year. Like last year, at any point during the season, we can remove a team from the table and replace them with someone else. For example, last season, I think it might have been after like week one or two. The Bengals were on the table. Joe Burrow got hurt. The Rams weren't on the table

because Matthew Stafford's in the airstream. And we were like, all right, The Rams are a contender, let's take the Bengals off. The biggest change with this year is that each one of us, over the course of the season, has won what we're calling trip to the soapbox, where you can make a case for why a team that has been removed from the table should be back onto the table. You have to convince the other two guys that it should happen. If you can't convince the other two, your soapbox trip for the year is over.

So you only have one of these. why we wanted to do it this way is we wanted to try to find the right blend of there are still stakes to removing a team from the table but we're more willing to remove them when it gets a little bit murky because I think my biggest frustration with the table exercise last year

is that we refused to take the chiefs off the table at any point because we were afraid about them coming back to harm us down the stretch and the Ravens like the same thing with the Ravens the chiefs we didn't take off until they were actually eliminated from the playoffs which it's still, I understand why it happened. We wanted to avoid that this year.

Just call it the Cowards Clause. That's you. That's fine. We're putting that in because Dave Helman is a coward. And I still won't apologize, but I think this is a good rule change. Because I think that this will make us more prone to take teams off. And I think it just adds another layer. So it still matters when a team comes off.

It's not willy-nilly where you can just go on and off because I think that would be stupid. But it's going to make it a little bit easier for us to pull the trigger on some of these choices over the course of the season. That's really it. Any other rule changes that I'm missing, Beller? That's pretty much all we're, we discussed, right? Yeah, that's really it. I think, though, for people who are watching on YouTube, we should introduce the- So that was the next thing I was going to match. Listen, I am a podcast listener over a podcast watcher.

I hope you're watching today because for year two of the table gimmick, we have props. We have props. This is one of the more ridiculous things we've ever done. Beller bought a small table that was, I think, made for dollhouses, but it's like a medieval banquet table and we have little block chairs and as we put the teams on the table today, we're going to put them in one of the seats

at an actual table. It is going to live on the set over the course of the year. And obviously when a team comes on or off, we will switch out the helmets that are involved here. If you're watching on YouTube, there's an actual ISO cam on the table. Beller has never been more pleased with himself

with anything he's done in the five years we've done the show together. I brought this up in our big creative meetings in June. And I was super pumped about it then. And now seeing it come to life, I am so happy that it happened. It's what you really want. It's what you want your executive producer's biggest idea for the entire season to be like one stupid gimmick about one shooting you're doing in August.

It's the creative team I've assembled over here. The ISO shot reminds me of like robot chicken or something. It's like a claymation sort of show set in like a kid's best. It's our show within the show. Spinal tap stonehenge coming down. It's that it has various spinal taps. Stone Hedge vibes. This is my second spinal tap reference I've made the last two weeks.

The other one is when Xavier Woods got hurt. We're entering a spinal tap drummer situation with the Chicago Bears safety room, but this also has a spinal tap vibe to it. So that is the last bit of these are the visuals conversation we'll have to respect the YouTube or to respect the audio and the audience. So let's dig into this. Here's what we're going to start this discussion. I think we can all collectively agree pretty quickly.

a subset of, let's say, four or five teams that we don't really need to have a conversation about. So I'm just going to list off a few teams and see if you guys are willing to fast forward this and just like get us to a place where yes, they belong on the table. Los Angeles Rants. Yes.

Okay. Here we go. First one. Helmet one at the table. Seattle Seahawks. Probably should have said them first. Defending champions. I was going to super odds.

It's like literally the order I was going to. looking for reasons to piss Seahawks' fans off. Seahawks and Rams, easily the top two, right? Like that's like no questions asked. They belong on the table for obvious reasons. But if we're going down to Super Bowl odds list, those are the top two for very good reason. I would also put on the Buffalo Bills onto that list. Yes.

Are we okay with that, Derek? I'm good with the Buffalo Bills, yes. We did the best offenses draft last week. It might have been this week. I actually don't even know when all that stuff happened. Was it this week? Sure. Offenses was this week.

Defense was last week. Okay. So we did the best. offenses draft. They went number one because they've been a top five offense over the last five years. That team plus some volatility on defense in a good way. They all, they haven't,

what was the, the bills haven't missed the playoffs in like seven years. That's probably an easier way to find it. Yeah. Yeah. And they have Josh Allen still. I think the Buffalo bills probably deserve to be at the table even before the season starts. Baltimore Ravens.

Ooh, we're not, we're putting them on the don't need to talk about it category. I think that's what we had to. disgust. I, they feel like they're in the next category where they're not just like lock it in the way that the Rams are where they're like literally the best roster in the NFL. But they are also in the tier of like, I don't think anybody would reasonably do this with and find 10 teams that you would put ahead of the Ravens. So I, the Ravens, I think, I think we should talk about them more about like what is actually their realistic paths and stuff like that.

But I, you would be very hard pressed to find 10 teams that are clearly ahead of the Ravens and an exercise like this. I'll make the opposite the argument I was going to make about the Bills about the Ravens when we did the best offenses and defenses draft the Ravens went in the top eight in both of those drafts

don't we think that is the complexion of a team that probably belongs at the table? When you frame it that way, yeah. No, I mean, I agree with you but it's still, it's funny to say you know, the team with Josh Allen that never misses the playoffs,

the Super Bowl champions, the NFC runner ups and then a team that went eight and nine. But you're right. I get it. They have the fourth best Super Bowl odds right now. They have the exact same Super Bowl odds. I'm looking at it on one of the sports books.

We don't need to say which one. They have the same Super Bowl odds as the Seahawks and this based on this source. In all, I'm okay with it. I'm just highlighting my fact. Okay. We'll put the Ravens on. Okay.

Four teams. Chosh and Lamargo handy hand in. So the viewers at home. He's got this. He wants this bit to be perfect. There we go. There we go. Beautiful.

Are we good? You happy with that? Yes. There we go. You get to see all the helmets. There we are. Okay. Rams, Seahawks, Bills, Ravens.

Do we think the New England Patriots are part of this group? I think so. You do. You guys do. And I'm willing to concede this to you. Yeah. And I think, again, I think they're closer to the tier of the Ravens than the Rams, where it's like, I don't know if they're like lock it in the way that the Rams or the Seahawks or the Bills even are.

But I think it would be really difficult to find 10 teams that you would put ahead of them. and I think it comes down to like, okay, they have a coach that I think is really good and he's done this before. They just went to the Super Bowl. The quarterback played like an MVP, I think. Yeah. Even if it was a little bit fake,

that's the other thing. It's like, okay, were the Patriots the most deserving AFC seed we've ever seen make it to the Super Bowl? No. It's still pretty hard to do that and get there and actually win those games. And so the fact that they did it last year,

I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. And then I think you add a player like AJ Brown, you add Romeo, I think May and Campbell are going to be healthier than they were in the playoffs. Like, they're not a perfect team. Like, if you're actually ranking them, maybe they're sixth or seventh. But, like, it would be almost impossible to me to get 10 teams easily over them. We've talked about the Patriots so many times over the last couple weeks.

I can acknowledge that you guys are probably more excited about them than I am, while also paying deference to the team that went to the Super Bowl last year from the AFC and concede that they probably should be one of the first teams that goes to the table. Went to the Super Bowl and has legitimate reasons for Optimal. as to why they could be better. Even if you think it was a little bit fraudulent, there are plenty of reasons to believe why this team will be better.

They traded for A.J. Brown this offseason. They signed Romeo Dobbs this off season. They signed Elijah Veri Tucker and free agency. They should be healthier up front. There are a whole host of reasons to believe that whatever you thought of last year's Patriots, this year's Patriots are in a better spot than that group was. It's a cliche at this time of year,

but I just think the Patriots are a team that'll have a worse record but be a better team this year. but that firmly puts them at the table. The AFC helmets are on your side, but I got to make it happen here. Which, like, that's kind of what, like, the Bengals were when they went to the Super War, right? Where it was, like, a team that got lucky with a young quarterback in an offense that kind of exploded. And then the next year, you could probably argue they were a better team and then just lost, I think they lost to the Chiefs that year in, like, the AFC conference game or divisional or whatever it was. You could argue that maybe they were a better team.

I don't think that that's, like, a crazy outcome for the Patriots. It was the championship game, I believe. Yeah. Yeah. So, okay. five, I think, are the teams that we can put on without an extended discussion. Would you say that's fair? That's probably where the list stops for me. I have one more, but I know from prepping the show with y'all already that we disagree about this. Who is your team? I don't

understand why Denver wouldn't get a longer conversation. I think they belong in the category of going straight on, but let's talk about it. They were going to be one of my first teams mentioned after this tier. Okay. I'm fine with the Broncos being on the table. The fact that the only, and this shouldn't

be the all and all when it comes to this, I don't really understand why there are, as I'm currently looking at this, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve. There are twelve teams with better Super Bowl than the Denver Broncos today. It's crazy to me.

I don't understand that. I was looking at it because this is one of my blind spots that you're much better at. Schedule. What does the schedule look like? And I was like, do the Broncos have a crazy hard preseason schedule? No. It's like a middle of the pack schedule.

They play in the AFC West where there are two other, I think, teams that have Super Bowl aspirations. Fine. There are a lot of hard divisions in the NFL. The Rams play in the NFC West. They have the best Super Bowl's in the league. I don't really understand why there are 12 teams with better Superwads than the Broncos. You want to know my theory?

I think betting odds are, betting odds, it's a good way to determine who's good, but it's also driven by public perception. And getting people to bet. And people want to bet on good quarterbacks. It's the same shit that we fell for last year. And what hindered our progress with the table at times last season is the undying faith in a quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes.

And that can be a good thing. But people don't like Bowknicks. And I think it, hinders people's willingness to see the Broncos on a higher level, even though two teams in very similar situations to the Denver Broncos have won the last two Super Bowls. Yes. The Broncos finished 12th and EPA per play on offense last year,

which I think that's a good starting place maybe for this conversation. When we were doing the table last year, Derek, I voted for the Broncos to be off in part because when you look at historical norms and the teams that not only win the Super Bowl, but go to conference championship games for the most part, almost invariably, those teams have had top 10 offenses. If you go back, I think the number I had was like since 2015, maybe, since the 2015 Broncos.

But now, last year, we literally had a team outside of the top 10 and EPA per play on offense with the best defense in the league win the Super Bowl. And so I do think that's going to reframe the conversation about a couple of the teams that we're going to talk about, including the Broncos. But even if the Broncos were set up to be 12th in EPA play again on offense and top five potentially on defense, that would be enough to put them on. Don't we have reason to believe that the Broncos offense might be better this year than it was

last year? I know it's not as simple as here's the starting point, add Jaylen Waddle automatically better. That's not how it works. But I think you could pretty easily make an argument that this Broncos offense has a chance to be better than last year's Broncos offense. Well, when the player is as good as Jaylon Waddle, I don't think that that's that unreasonable to especially because he's such an obvious fit for a lot of the stuff that they do, right? It's not like, you know, you bring him in, it's like, oh, what are they going to do with him?

He's just super talented and they want to figure it out. No, it's very obvious what he does in and for their offense. I do think if there's any sort of hesitation with what they were on offense or what they might be on offense. It's that last year, like, they were still very specific in the ways that they were winning. And you hope that Jalen Wattle can get you out of that. And you can be a little bit more of like an intermediate passing team. And maybe the deep ball can be more consistent than it was, you know, for like the first half of the year compared to the back half where they were running hot on something like that. I also like, I do have a little bit of reservations about what a quarterback who a lot of his game is based around mobility and moving like Bo Nix coming off of two ankle surgeries this off season.

Like I do have some amount of question about like, is he 100% of what he was last year or is he 90% of what he was last year? And I think that like 90% is maybe not enough for this to be like a really high gear offense. Is it just because he was hurt or has there been any sort of indication that he doesn't look fully healthy? because my understanding is that this was a pretty routine thing. I still want to see it. I haven't seen or read anything during camp that makes me worried about it. That's all I can go on, though. If we're trying to find reasons, like their running game is still pretty pedestrian.

They finished 23rd in EPA per carry last year. Like there are imperfections about this team and the offense in general, but I still just have a hard time understanding why there are 12 teams with better super bots than the Denver Broncos currently have after last season. If Bo Nix doesn't hurt his ankle, they probably are playing in the Super Bowl. We're having the same conversation about them that we just had about the Patriots. The other thing I would point out, which I bring up a lot, in a league with 40 really good receivers, the minute you have a down year, it's over as far as public perception goes.

And like, I just don't think people talk or recognize Jalen Wattle as like a really, really good receiver. Since 2022, he's 11th in the NFL in yards per route run. He's fourth among receivers in EPA per target. He's one of eight receivers over that stretch with 100 plus explosive receptions. And I can hear you at home saying, Dave, Tyreek Hill played in Miami with Jalen Waddle all that time. He's not Tyreek Hill. I understand that. But in that same stretch of time, Cortland Sutton has been a top 30 receiver in EPA per target over the same stretch of time that Jailen Waddle was in Miami.

He was actually 21st in EPA per target last year in that very up and down Denver offense. not only is he a good receiver. He's never played with a receiver of Jalen Waddle's caliber. Like Cortland Sutton has been the star of some so-so Denver receiver course for most of his career. So not only is adding Waddle to this thing a big, big deal, giving Sutton a higher caliber of receiver to play with, I think matters a lot too. Other than the fact, the one thing I can think of for the Denver offense is if you just want to tell me, well, their injury luck on the offensive line will suck at some point. like maybe that's true but they've been banged up in strength of the offense last year and they've been fine like i think they've done a really

good job of creating an ecosystem where when backups have to play you don't really notice it that much uh i'm not going to remember how to pronounce his name but alice polchowski pauchoski he he was actually like pretty good for them which to your point he's played like it's not as if we've had all the starters for the entirety of the last couple seasons i think that this is a team i think similar we were talking about about Matt Lafleur on the show earlier this week, Derek, when we were talking about Sean Mannion and LaFleur's real talent for creating a positive past protection environment independent of who the offensive linemen are. And I think you can make a really strong argument

that the Broncos have done that as well. Like the individual pieces along the offensive line are good, but this is an environment that is conducive to good offensive line play and good pass protection independent of whether the starters of the backups are in there. And so I think they're resilient to offensive line injuries and have proven to be that. So I don't know, man. I'm kind of out of arguments as to why they shouldn't be involved here. The other thing people like to bring up about last year's Broncos is they played in 13, one score games and 1-11 of them.

My contention would be if Jalen Waddle does to the offense what I think he will, A, I don't think they'll be playing in as many one-score games. And so even if their one-score game, call it luck, regresses, like what if they're more of a 500 team in one-score games? well, if you're four and four in one score games and still handling your business and the other ones, I think they'll be fine. I don't need them to be a 14-win team

for them to belong at the table. It's the same thing. They're not going to win 14 games this year. They could still be a fantastic 11-win team and have very real Super Bowl aspirations. I mean, I guess they're like a tiny bit thinner on defense. I mean, you lose John Franklin Myers, you're banking on a rookie now to kind of fill those snaps.

But I think you can make an argument that the offense has more variability to it. Beyond Jay and Waddle, there's so much excitement. excitement about Pat Bryant coming into this year, giving you another reliable receiver, Jonah Coleman, just being able to eat some carries if J.K. Dobbins gets banged up again. I just think there are plenty of reasons for optimism about a team that was already good last year. When I, I've been thinking about this all summer, like in my free time. And I just, I view the Broncos. I love this. Dave, it's just like sitting there on his couch at like 10 p.m. on a Thursday in July.

The Broncos, the Broncos. What am I missing about the Broncos? I wish that was not accurate, but it kind of. of is. But I view the Broncos as like one, maybe half a step down from the teams that we've already put at the table. And like I said, my only thing is I don't even really think they need a conversation. But I guess I'm glad we did just to lay it out. I don't understand why they're not viewed as a team with better Super Bowl odds. Other than that, people don't like their quarterback. Derek, I feel like you'd be the one pushing back on this if you didn't

think they belonged here. You've been pretty quiet over there. Do you have any issue with this at all? No. Like I laid out my case for like why I think there's maybe some amount of pessimism or at least like hesitancy for where I am with the offense and I am one of those like I'm I still want to see a little bit more from Bo Nix on the other end I think one of the reasons that maybe there's been a little bit of like or the Broncos as good as we think they are is the defense did fall off at the back end of last year yeah well Patrick Zortan got hurt and it just wasn't 100% if he's 100% he's the best corner in the league again there and they're like a top five defense so that that part doesn't really bother me I had them in like I have my own table that I'm working off here and

they were one of the teams that I put in and so I don't know if I'm as close to to Dave in terms of like they're a team we didn't need to talk about but they were on my list and like they should be in I think they were they were seventh on my list of teams I had one team that was just ahead of them beyond the five teams that we kind of automatically put on let's take our first quick break and then we'll come back and chat about that team the other aFC team that I was very quick I was very ready to have the conversation about them because I think to me they're like a half step down from the five that we threw on there is the Houston Texans can we agree that they probably are next up for consideration

among the teams that we're going to talk about? I had them fifth on my personal list. Yes. Yeah. I think if you have a case that one of your sides of the ball can be the best in the entire league, you should have a case for being on here, yes. It's very similar to what we just said about the Broncos

where maybe in a previous version of this conversation five years ago, the idea that a defense, an offense that finished as I stall, I mean, if they were top 20 in like TVOA last year. They were 25th. They were 25th in offense VPA last year. The Texans were 25th. And so the thought that we'd be willing to put a team in the contender table that finished 25th in offensive VPA last year,

even if you can build in some theoretical improvement, I think it would have been harder to get there. But when you look at the personnel moves they made on offense, the understanding that they absolutely could take a big step forward on that side of the ball combined with, the quality of the defense and the types of teams we've seen go to and win the Super Bowl over the last couple years, I think I'm just more ready to make a full-throated argument about why they belong here than I would have been a few years ago. How much does the Jaden Higgins injury ding your confidence?

It does. It absolutely does. And I was going to talk about that because when you're building the case for why this offense can go from 25th in EPA per play to, let's say, top 12. Let's just say 12 is still kind of like the 12 to 14 is like the cutoff. I think Seattle finished I think they were like 13 last year But it was that in others in other metrics like success rate EPA or DVLA The Sealks were like in the top 15 I think top 15 is still probably we have to be shooting for

Even with the best offense in the league to feel good about getting here The offensive line improvements are number one right And so getting going from a place where last year You're really just shuffle on all of these pieces around You never find your footing to a spot now where just the sheer level of physicality they're going to be bringing to the table with Rattledge and Wyatt Tower in the middle of that offensive line. I think the run game is going to be so much better.

David Montgomery is there because that was the problem. We've talked about this. They were 12th in EPA per dropback last season when C.J. Stroud was out there. This is a passing game that does have a level of competency you can get behind. The running game was a flaming disaster for the last year. It has been for a while. Yes. It's been so bad.

And so I think them being better in that area in short yardage, that was going to go a long way and just making. the entire thing feel a little bit healthier. So that's one area where I think the optimism is justified. Jaden Higgins, I think it's beyond him being a starting receiver. They were so excited about what Jaden Higgins was going to be in the offense this year. Just him kind of adding to his bag, he had a fantastic offseason based on everything, every person I talked to down there.

And there was a moment in camp where Jalenol was hurt. And Higgins was having to work in the slot or they were trying him out there a little bit more than they might have otherwise. and some of the short area of quickness he was showing off and the route variety that he was able to kind of tap into that they really probably wouldn't have thought about until they saw him in there.

He was just adding all these layers to his game over the course of the spring and summer. And I think the thought was he could add those layers back into the offense. And so removing that, now you're kind of cobbling that spot together, Derek, where it's some combination of Xavier Hutchinson and Jalen Knoll and their skill sets are so different

that I think Jaden Higgins was theoretically going to give you. And so, yeah, I think that there's still a case to be made that there's the level of optimism we should have about the offense improving, but it's harder to make that case without Jaden Higgins. It really sucks that I, within the last week, I was thinking, I can't believe Tank Dell just gets to be a fun little piece of land yap on this whole thing. And like, whatever he gives you is just fun. And now it's like, Tank Dell would really be great if you could be ready to go. I know your whole leg got destroyed, but we need you, we need something.

And to the point that it makes me wonder if they might try to do something at some point, depending on how they feel about the guys on the back end of their depth chart. I wonder, and I don't think you can really count on Tank Dell to be like a central part of the offense. But the argument that I would make about his value, honestly might be,

because tanks, what really impressed me about Tank Dell as a rookie, Derek, is that he's outside the numbers running like big boy vertical routes as a rookie. He wasn't just some stuff. slot only like Wondale Robinson kind of like deal. It was not like that. What I'm most worried about is that the Jaden Higgins skill set you're losing

within this offense is that like Z intermediate slashing receiver. Is there any scenario? I guess Xavier Hutchinson could theoretically do this where you're trying to find a guy that you can play more at X. So Nico Collins can fill some of that stuff that Jaden Higgins was potentially going to give you. Because I think somewhere along the way, you need that skill set within the offense. and I honestly think moving Nico around

probably gives you the best chance to find a version of that skill set compared to all the other guys that they have. I think it probably does. I think if I'm looking at the roster, though, like I think it's more realistic that they just, I think tight end is more the position where they have a lot more flexibility

and bodies to do something at. Like they signed faster Moreau. They draft Marlon Klein, who actually think that, you know, looked kind of good. So like they have, I think, more bodies there. They still have like Cade Stover is still on the roster.

Like that feels more potentially them leaning into that and maybe trying to get something out of that rather than, you know, Hutchinson has been like a fine depth player for them, but I don't think is going to step up and really do as much as obviously Jaden Higgins did. And then again, take Dell can play outside, but not in like the same way that like Higgins. Like I just think it's really hard for me to find which body type it would be unless like you said, you're trying to make somebody else be the outside guy and let Nico Collins do some of that, which even if I think he can do that, I still think a lot of what Nico Collins is value. is, is that in this under center play action type of office, and he is our on the ball. We're running him deep down the field sort of player. And that's how they want to use him. There's a reason that they have him lean into that role so heavily compared to other number one receivers that move around a little bit more. I think they want him kind of focusing on that element of the offense.

The tight end point is a really good one, though. And I think that's, we haven't said that yet. That honestly, even with all the offensive line additions, I think you can make a really serious argument, the most improved area of the roster for the Houston Texans is the tight end room. They didn't have any last year. They had to play Jumbo because they didn't have a second playable tight end. Now there's a chance they keep five tight ends if they end up keeping Cade Stover.

And they're all slightly different flavors and you can use them all in slightly different ways. And so that optionality at the position, I do, Derek, think is one of the things they could potentially turn to in a world without Jaden Higgins because it is the area where they probably have the most options that they didn't have a year. year ago. Cade Stover going from tight end two to tight end potentially five is, yeah, that's a big deal. So the whole, at the end of the day here, the question comes down to, do we think the Texans can be a top 15-ish offense with all of those considerations combined with what they have on defense? I think I believe it enough to put them on here.

If you told me, no, I'd still want them at the table, honestly. Because of how good the defense is. Yes. Yeah. There, I, that's how good I think this defense is, is I think they could, they could, in a one-off sport, they could make life miserable on pretty much any team they play and you never know what happens. Like if the Texans had the 21st best offense instead of the 26th, could that potentially enough be enough to let the defense just street fight you to the Super Bowl? I don't know how much I like the odds, but I believe that they could do it. It's a really thin path.

We very rarely see that. The 2015 Broncos are really the only example. You need a generational, like once every 10 years sort of defense for that to be a viable path to the Super Bowl. I kind of think they might have that sort of defense. They could absolutely. I mean, them and the Seahawks were already historic defenses last year. And I think that you can make the case that like Houston, I mean, like lost less and maybe added more than a team like Seattle did on defense. I just think that there's a chance that they are absolutely nuclear again.

And even if we look at last year, like this was kind of supposed to be their path last year, right? Where the defense goes nuclear and the offense just tries to get by obviously the offense tanks. Think about what it took for Drake May and the Patriots to beat that team. Drake May had to make like six unbelievable tight window throws. Diggs had to hang on to balls like where he's just getting smacked from like a safety coming down. I'm like, it took five or six, like, 0.1% plays for this defense to lose. I'm willing to bet on a unit like that again. And I think the other thing that I would say about this team,

I know a lot of this is going to come down to, like, oh, how C.J. Stroud played in the playoffs and is that really a quarterback that can do it for you? If people would remember, Sam Darnold's last two games with the Vikings were disastrous. He was horrible against the Lions in the week 18 game. And then they played the Rams in the first playoff games and he got sacked nine times and just looked like he could not play. And then that guy won the Super Bowl next year.

And so it's just like, I don't think that one playoff or like, you know, end of season run should necessarily say that this guy can never do it, especially if the defense on the other side is supporting him as well as it's going to. It would be fun for Texans fans and more pleasing to the eye if the offense is a lot better this year. But part of me just wants to see what level of ineptitude. this defense can drag. No, I can't do that.

I can't do that. I believe in the vision of like what the offensive line is supposed to be like enough. And I will say without Higgins, when Higgins was involved, it was very easy for me to see what the best case scenario for this could look like. And I wanted to believe in it happening because I think it would have been really cool to watch it all come together. But even if you remove Higgins from the equation, I still want to see like what they've attempted to build on offense come to fruition.

because I do think that it can sing if it all comes together. But I think it's a great point, Derek, about the C.J. Stroud part of this and how is Sam Darnold's season ended. And I think beyond the personnel additions, the other point of optimism I would bring up about the Texans' offensive situation is that it was year one of a new play caller. And I just think that Nick Cayley's understanding of his personnel, what he wants to be, and his quarterback,

like just having more familiarity with how to, to call games for his quarterback, the time they've spent together, understanding each other a little bit more. I think that matters. And I do think that has been part of the process over the course of this offseason. I think there is just like a comfort level that is hard to establish in year one of any play caller in quarterback situation. And so I think there are a lot of collective reasons for optimist as to why this, optimist for why this can be better. And to Dave's point, even if it wasn't any better, do they still belong at the table? I think it's a completely fine way of looking at it. So I'm in Firmly.

Let's put the Jesus and Texans in his team number seven here. This is where it gets hard. Because now we have three spots left for a bunch of teams. Like a dozen teams if you really want to get down to it. A bunch of teams. Do we think it would be easier to eliminate some teams? I think that's the way to start to do this now. Let's whittle things down a little bit.

It saves the suspense for the end. I like that. Who are teams that you thought about that you felt were most on the fringe that you wanted to at least put up for consideration, but you were like, they probably won't make it at the end of the day, but we should see if, like, we should at least have a discussion about it. There should be a dialogue. I just personally, I have, well, I have three teams, really, that I'm perfectly happy to

consider you a contender and perfectly happy to talk about your seat at the table after I've seen a handful of games. And I mean, I know that goes for everybody, but these teams in particular, because there is excitement around them. There's reason to believe in them. And I just, I want to see it. Number one is Green Bay, mainly just because I want to see what they look like

when their injured stars come back healthy. And I think that's fine. I don't, I can, I'm happy waiting. If Micah Parsons comes back and looks like Micah Parsons and the defense goes to another level and by week nine or whatever, maybe it's even earlier than that, I don't know. But like a month from now, two months from now, they look like a much different team, fine.

And then the other two are the mirror images of each other that I just can't consider contenders until I've seen them play football are Cincinnati and Dallas. All right, let's save the Cincinnati and Dallas part of this because I think I'm ready to make an argument for probably at least one of those. I am. Fantastic. Okay. So I'm with you on the Packers. Same here.

The Packers remind me of the Rams last year where it's like, okay, that's fine. In five weeks, if you look like an amazing team, then I have no problem calling it what it is. But I just, I don't feel like I have to get there right now. I think the positive argument for the Packers would be when they were healthy last year, they were definitively a contender. And then after those guys got hurt, that's when they fell short of, that's when they fell short. Like I think that, I think the easiest argument about the Packers would be, well,

they weren't good enough the last two years and is the roster better now. But I think that's too simplistic because I think when their guys were healthy last year, they probably were good enough. If I were a Packerman, that's probably the argument I would put forth. But I'm with you. They're not healthy. They're not healthy to start. And I think there's still enough questions.

Could the skill position group be better than it's ever been there as constructed? Yes, I'm willing to concede that. But we haven't seen, we've barely seen Matthew Golden play football. Like, Tupper craft is coming back off an injury. We've talked about the offensive line ad nauseum. And when Micah Parsons is back, can they be as good on defense as they were last year when he was on the field? Potentially. But this is still a defense with a ton of question.

marks. I don't understand why they definitively better on that side of the ball than they were when he was healthy last year. And even last year with a lot of the defense, like a lot of their defensive success, if you want to call it that with Micah Parsons was hanging on, hanging on, Michael Parsons makes a crazy play in the fourth quarter. And he can do that. But it's just like only living that way, I think it's a little scary. Like I still look at their corner room and I'm a little bit scared unless like Brandon Seas really comes on as a rookie. I don't know if that's the best corner room. And then again, the offensive line concerns, I just like, that feels, there's an optimistic case where this does work out for them. And again, Matt Lafleur, like his ecosystem for the

offensive line is really good. But I think in the NFC championship game, when you're playing the Rams, that is the kind of offensive line that can just sink you. And that I do, I think, is a little bit worrisome. Kind of today's point, like, if we're at Halloween and the offensive line looks fine and Michael Parsons comes back and he looks like Michael Parsons, we can put him on the table. But this is a team that I'm okay playing the slow game on, I think. I reserve the right to be excited as hell about the Packers in October or November. But I don't have to feel that way right now. I feel the Packers have rightfully so.

The margins are thin enough. Yeah. If you have a decent reason to leave a team off, let's take the reason. Rightfully so the Packers have gotten so much benefit of the doubt over the years. It's okay if they have to prove themselves heading into a season. That's fine. All right, so the Packers are off. The two teams I thought you were going to say are mirror images of each other that we could pretty easily leave off.

I had two other teams in mind, actually, was the Bears and the Jags. Oh, that's another good one. Okay. I'm down to leave the Bears off. I think if you listen to the show, I've been fairly pessimistic on the Bears, not in the big picture, but this year. Like, I don't have the bears on mine, but I'm a little more willing to fight for the Jags. I want to have a Jags conversation, but I think I'm with Dave on the Bears. the Bears. On the Bears like...

Interesting. I laid out the case like the Bears for the time being. I laid out the like the Bears could be the best offensive football if everything comes together. I still think that defense is pretty bad and like they're banged up and like I just have a lot of questions about where that's going to get them. And even if I am optimistic about the offense, I think that there are enough like depth concerns, offensive line concerns that I'm like not 100% all the way to get there. Even if I would make the case of that like over the next three years,

they have the best case of anybody to like get one seed in the NFC and stuff like that. I'm just this year in particular, particular, I'm like, I want them to prove to me that they are the third best offense in the NFL first.

The depth concerns, I think, apply to the skill position group for sure. Right. The idea that if Luther Burden misses time, it's Jada Walker. Wide receiver specifically. With Khalif Raymond, like we're there now.

I was going to say we're not that far away now. We're there at this current moment. So I think the skill position, talent, it is a little bit more fragile. I actually do think there's more depth on the offensive line than there was last year. Because now you have, let's say Bradbury gets hurt. You drafted Logan Jones in the second round. You got six left tackles that are pretty much the same.

So I actually do. If you got six left tackles, you don't have one chagrin, apparently. I think they're more resilient up front, even if there are a couple positional concerns about quality compared to last year than they were a year ago. But the skill position talent, more than willing to concede that. And while Dave is sitting up thinking about why the Broncos are getting more respect on a Thursday in July. I'm laying in bed worried about what the Bears' defense is going to look like.

So you're going to get no pushback from me on that front. We don't have to do the whole offseason conversation again now that we're on the eve of the season, but the defense didn't get better this year. And that's okay, by the way. Like, I'd rather they do that than... It did and then Kobe Bryant is going to miss the entire season. So, again, that's the problem. I used to even Kobe Bryant and and Devin Bush weren't enough to make me think that this

thing was going to look wholesale different from last year. I had I had faith that they were going to, they had a chance to be a notch or two better with Kobe Bryant, Dylan, Thieneman, Kyler Gordon healthy in the secondary. Jaylon Johnson looking more like himself over the course of the season. There was a path for this to be improved. We've already taken so many bricks out of the wall for that to happen. No Kyle or Gordon, who knows when that's going to happen. No Kobe Bryant the entire year. So yes, I am more than willing to say

I need to see it with the bears Especially on defense before we're going to put them on here Okay, so why do you hate the Jacksonville Jaguars? What's going on over here? What did you learn in Duval? No, it wasn't, nothing like that. Nothing like that. I think I pair them together for a couple different reasons.

They were the surprise teams last year. We had the young first year, offensive play calling head coach. They have the same SuperBonds. I'm literally looking at it right now, the exact same ones on the list that I'm looking at. And I think what it comes down to for the Jags with me,

and I'm surprised Derek isn't more willing to tap into this. Do we think the Jaguars have an offensive line that can win the Super Bowl? I think that there's like a 10% chance they can get there. And that's kind of my concern because I think you need a huge percent. That's a huge chance, by the way. 10% is way more than you mean. Yeah. Not like, no, no, no, no, no, I mean, there's a 10% chance that they get too good enough.

Not that there's a 10% chance that they win the super. Okay. 10% of the same chance they go to the Super Bowl. That's pretty good. That would be like the second or third best odds in the NFL. No, no, no, no. It's not quite like that. But I did post on Blue Sky today because Ian Rappaport was talking about Cole Van Lannin

being pushed off the pup. And he's back to active playing. And I was like, you kind of need three things to go right for this Jacksonville offensive line to get to like average, which is you need Colvan Landon to come back and look not only healthy but better. Like he was better than Walker Little last year, but it's not like he was good. Like he was just a slight upgrade for them. I think you need Emmanuel Pregnon to be ready and an upgrade by halfway through the season.

And I will say, like, he looked really good in his first preseason action against the Saints. Just the guy who's, I think, very smart, which is, you know, when you're drafting an older player, that's what you hope for, and just really powerful, which this was an offensive line that they were athletic. They could get to the right spots. They could not move a soul. And so if he can bring that a little bit, I think that that would be good for them. And then I think you want Anton Harrison to take one more step. And so I think if all three of those dominoes can fall, that's good enough. And this offense can be a machine.

If you get zero or one of those, I think you're banking a lot on Trevor Lawrence running red hot, which I think that he's a good player. But like I'm pretty clear-eyed about what he is, I think. Like I just don't think you're going to get him to run red hot for 17 games like that, or 20 if you're trying to go to the Super Bowl. I don't disagree with anything you're saying. I just think the if-then, if-then, if-then there are so many of those. It's a lot. is it more than it is for the other teams we're going to consider here? It's not about whether the Jags can win the Super Bowl.

That's not the conversation that we're having. It's whether you think the Jags have a more realistic path to that place than the other 10 teams that are probably up for these last three spots. The interesting thing to me about the Jags and the offensive line is definitely something worth highlighting. But I think of the Jags as like a more well-rounded but less exceptional team like all over. whereas a lot of the teams that I left off my table have some potential fatal flaw, whether it's a defense that was like unplayable last year and we just haven't seen it,

or, you know, obviously Kansas City's offense outside of Patrick Mahomes. I already mentioned Green Bay, but like the injuries in Green Bay, whereas with Jacksonville, I just think at the outset of the season, they are a strong team returning most of the important pieces of what they did last year and have potential to grow into something more over the course of the season. I have them on my list of 10 at 9. So, I mean, they snuck in at the back end, but I just, I don't, I don't lose that much sleep thinking about what the Jags don't have, whereas the teams that I left off in favor of them,

there's something there that, like, worries me tremendous. All right, let's leave the Jags off to the side. We're not removing them from consideration, but I think there's plenty of other teams that we can talk about. Derek, who is like next on your list? If you were to stand up and make a case for your next team that you fully believe

should be on, what would that team be? I mean, fully believe, I don't think is the way that I would put this. Most sweet. Yeah, we're not working. Listen, I really believe at this point. So I had six teams that I was like, no doubt about it.

And we talked about them, you know, it's the, I think the, you know, the Rams, the Patriots. It's the Ravens, the Texans. We've talked about all those teams. I have a second category behind that, which is teams that I will not reasonably leave out. One of them was Denver.

Because, again, the roster is just too complete. The defense could be elite. It's easy to see the path for the offense. The other one, and I know the whole impetus for some of the rule changes we had were about this team. I am not leaving off the Kansas City Chiefs until they are dead. Like, I'm going to keep putting them on. So Casey made your 10. They would make my 10.

Yes. I only officially listed nine teams, actually. but they are still one of my like nine teams that I would, I wanted to confidently put them on there because I just make my cut. I was trying to prove that I'm willing to turn over a new leaf. I said I needed to see them bottom out and they did. They kind of bottomed out. Even that was only partly because he got hurt.

Holmes got hurt. Yeah. In a game that eliminated them from the playoffs a month before the season ended. I, but I think my other thing. That's bottoming out when you are used to playing in the. It's not for their standards, yes. That is fair.

For their standards, yeah. But again, when Mahomes was on the field, they were still a top 10 off. Like, they are still a really. They were fifth in EPA for play when Mahomes was out there last year. It was the most. And I do think that that is like a little bit. But yes. Like, and it's a little bit misleading because I don't think anybody watched them and they

were like, that's the fifth most scary offense. So it is a little bit misleading. But I think the fact that they could drag the team to that kind of results because he is that special of a player. I do think says a lot. And then I think that there are cases for optimism. Like if Josh Simmons takes any sort of step and he has as much talent as anyone in the world, that I think could do a lot for them.

If the receiving core is even just like on the field more than they were last year, like it's not my favorite receiving core. I don't love them. But they were just banged up and on and off the field for various different reasons last year. And then I've been pretty vocal about like, I do think that there's a nice cascade effect to be had from getting a guy in the building like a Kenneth Walker.

And he's not a perfect player. but going from a team that was as bad as you could be at generating 10 and 20 plus yard runs to the guy where if he's going to give you anything, it is literally that, them just being able to flip the field a little bit. I think that that is going to go such a long way for them. So I get why people would leave them off, but I'm just, I think going into every season until the quarterback doesn't look like himself, I'm going to put them in my top 10 all of the time.

I'm fine with that. They were close for me, and I don't really disagree with anything that you said. I'm in a similar boat where even if they, we can acknowledge that when you watch them on offense, they're probably not a top five offense. But his ability to just conjure efficiency as a player is real. Like, even if the rest of it is frustrating. And I know this might seem like whiplash for people who heard me agonizing over picking them in the best offenses draft. That is an aesthetic thing.

Like that is, what do you want? want to be involved in and what do you want to be invested in. I have enough concern about what the beat by beat Kansas City Chiefs offense will look like in terms of like experientially that I don't love it. But I think the overall quality of it will be good enough to keep them competitive as long as they're a little bit healthier. It's not even Josh Simmons taking a step. It's Josh Simmons being on the field.

Yeah. If the offensive line is healthier and we have a more explosive, let's just say the passing game is as stagnant and the receivers are as forgettable as they were a year ago. But the offensive line is healthier and the run game is more explosive. That's like a real top seven offense. That's what they won the Super Bowl with 2023 in, basically. And the defense has some runway. There's reason to believe that the defense will feel a little bit more dynamic,

a little bit more explosive with that injection of youth that we see coming. So yeah, this is not that controversial to me. Do I think that they belong in the top tier of teams? Like they would have over the last few years? No, that's why we're talking about them here. Yeah, I mean, we didn't just put them on right off the jump like we did last year. And I don't think that they're one of those teams. I agree.

Yeah. You got to swim a little bit more than you would have. But I think after you squint, they probably are in the 10. Yes. That's ultimately where I landed. And I actually, for as gross as the offense is, I think it's easier to tell yourself the story of why the offense will be really good. Like Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, all that stuff.

The defense, I do think you have to scorn. a little bit more. But I've said it before. Like, I kind of just trust the injection of talent here, not even just with the young guys, but like Alohi Gilman is a perfectly solid starter to replace Brian Cook. And I think Kyrie's Tonga gives them a nose that they have legitimately not had in like half a decade. And so I think that like I'm just willing to buy this coaching staff, this quarterback, some of the talent on defense.

It's a hell of a vote of confidence in spags. And he deserves it. but to ship off your best two corners. And we all like Noel Williams, we talked about him earlier this summer, but between him and Mansour Delane, you're just like, okay, go do it, guys who, you know, we've got 400 snaps from one guy and the other guys are rookie.

And there's like a reasonable amount of trust that that's going to work out. And Peter Woods probably needs to chip into this. You hope you get something from R Mason Thomas. It's, if another team was doing this, you would think it was crazier than if Spagnola was doing it with the Chiefs. Not to say that that's wrong, but it's true. It's absolutely true.

But I'm, again, I'm willing to buy it. And I think, I do think you have to squint with this part a little bit. But part of the reason that you would buy in on like the Bill's defense, right, is that it's a schematic change. And things are going to look different in all this stuff. I think all of the changes that they've made personnel-wise in Kansas City are telling you that they are going to do that. They probably want to play more man coverage when you bring in Monster or Delane and

Noel Williams is going to be a starter. You want to be a little bit more maybe of an odd front, stop the run defense if Kyris Tonga is going to be on the field for you. Like I think they are telling you they want to be a little bit different than they had been the past couple of years. I also think I believe in the No Williams stuff. Like I think that he had a chance to be really good. And if we think that Delane could be good right away,

which I know is a lot putting a lot on a rookie, I don't think it's crazy to think that over the course of the entire year when Delane settles in, do we get to a place where the cornerback play isolated is 80% as good as it was a year ago combined with the additions that they made up front? Is that irresponsible? I don't think that's crazy. I don't think so.

And I think that there's some amount of, look, when you're playing this way, there's going to be some ups and downs when you're playing as much man as I think that they might. But there is also a level of like simplicity can be good for your players too. Like if they just know that it's like, hey man, I've just got to go one on one with this. guy and you're getting more reps doing that in practice and stuff like that. Like I think that there's some value to be had there. So I'm maybe this is just like an insane amount of faith in Steve Spagnolo and Patrick Mahomes, but they've done it before and I'm willing to say that they can do it again.

I don't disagree with anything y'all are saying too much. Like yeah, like I said, like if it was another team, it would be crazy. But there's a lot of reasons to trust that the chiefs can pull this off. Is there a team you feel much stronger about that like or multiple teams that like, would make you say like, no, I'm not going to do this? Not strongly enough to be obstinate about it. Because if that was the case, that's fine. But I think I'm mostly with Derek.

Like, they were probably the next team on my list for. Inherent faith combined with all of the reasons that we've just talked about. And I think putting those two things together, I'm okay with this. Like, they're the eighth team. They're not the second team. I have them 12th on my list, which is, but like, like we talked about, the jumble after the top seven is so tight that. I don't, I feel perfectly fine trusting Patrick Mahal.

All right, throw them on there. Yeah, let's do it. I just want to- Team number eight point out for the record that I wasn't the one driving this. Yeah, we had to drag Dave here, which I do think it's kind of funny. All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and have the blood sport of these final two teams. All right. Among the teams we have left, let's throw out the teams that we think are in, and then Jags, right?

So let's throw out the teams we think are in consideration for this. Here are the teams that I would think deserve at least mention. Lions, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, Bengals, and then we tabled the Jaguars. Okay. So I think we have six realistic options for two spots. Those are the exact teams I've got. Who do you think we can eliminate before we dig into the other options? So, wait, did you say, did you say San Francisco?

No, I did not say San Francisco. That's one I think we can pretty quickly eliminate. I have them off. I just vibes, injuries. The defense, I think, will be better, but not good enough. The defense is still theoretical. That's what I come back to where I think the defense is still theoretical. And like Mikel Williams isn't even to be ready to start the season.

Okay. Actually, all right. I'm going to make an argument that's going to lose me the argument, if that makes sense. Because the Niners right now remind me of the Rams last year, where the pieces that would make you feel good about them are there, but you just don't feel good about it with everything. we've heard out of training camp. Like this time last year, we were like, can't touch the Rams.

Matthew Stafford is in the airstream getting back treatment every day. And four weeks into the season, it was like, okay, never mind. And so, you know, it sounds like Nick Bosa is coming along okay. I haven't heard anything that makes me think Christian McCaffrey's long-term health is in jeopardy. Fred Warner is fine, by the way, that matters a lot. And Mike Evans has been working back to practice too. So whatever's ailing him, at least is not something I'm.

have to worry about all year. All of that in totality, assuming it, you know, the vibes maintain until you actually get to the season, I think a fairly healthy Niners team is worth including at the table. But we don't know that. If you want to wait until the season starts and see what it looks like, fine. I'm not going to fight you too hard on that.

We got to eliminate some teams. Like all of those caveats about like, oh, this guy plays and if this guy looks good, like there has been enough stuff coming out of there where it reminds me, honestly, of everything that was happening with the Niners two off seasons ago. They went like 6 and 11 or whatever And where it was like oh man You know I Trump Williams isn't practicing

And Christian McCaffrey's dealing with the calf It'll probably be fine And then it wasn't Yeah And so this team is fragile and old enough Where if everyone was relatively healthy On August 20th I still think combined with those concerns

And the fact that the defense was still a projection I would have my reservations about them And everyone's not fully healthy on August 20th And so again I'm with you If the defense with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa and the young guys taking a step. We get to a place six weeks into the season

where it's like this is the eighth best defense in the league and the offense stays relatively healthy. We can revisit this conversation. But right now, I don't even think it's that controversial to leave them off. No, that makes, that's where I meant. All right, so Niners are off. What do we think about the Eagles?

I have them on without even thinking that hard about it. So I'm willing to hear this out because here was my process. Like I said, I only for sure put nine teams in. And then I had a group of three teams where I was like, I'm willing to play this out in real time to see where I get. One of them was the Jags and one of them is the Eagles. And so I'm willing to try to have this back and forth here. Because I do think it's not that dissimilar from the case from like the Texans, right?

That's that's exactly it. Yeah. That's exactly it. Where if we think the Eagles have a chance to be the best defense in the league or a top three defense in the league, which I do, right? The Gernard thing wears me a little bit. The fact that it seems like we're creeping closer and closer to the season, and Vic Vanjo, I think, came out yesterday.

He said they still don't know. And said they still don't know. Like, that's one knock against the ceiling case for the defense. But if he's back in the first few weeks of the year, like, this is a really, really good unit. And we talked about, okay, did the Texans have a path to a top 15 offense combined with that sort of defense? Even if I have my reservations about what's going to go on with the Eagles offense,

you could easily make a case that they have a path to being a top 15 offense. here's the stat that proves you correct over the last five years 23 of the 25 teams that have finished top five in defensive DVOA finished with a winning record 21 of the 25 teams made the playoffs to like the the exceptions

the 2023 Jets finished 7 and 10 they got three snaps out of Aaron Rogers and last year's Vikings went 9 and 8 and missed the playoffs with bottom rung quarterback play so even if you're not high on the Eagles offense at all if the defense

is what we think it will be, this will be a team with a winning record. I just, that's not the conversation we're having. But a team with a winning record with a top five, top six defense by DVOA that has Sequin Barkley and a quarterback who's not J.J. McCarthy at the very least, like, will be a factor in January. I just believe that. But are they more deserving of a spot here than some of the other teams that also will likely have winning records and be playoff teams?

That's the discussion that we're having. And I think they, you can make an argument that are teams more deserved. Who? There are two teams. I think I would, honestly, three teams. I think I would believe in more than the Eagles because of the uncertainty about the offense. I have more faith in the Lions. They were my third team that I had into like, let's talk this out.

I can hear, okay, I can hear the argument for Detroit. I'm ready to make the argument for the Lions. They were, they were one of my 10 teams. Do what, should we do that now? Yeah, let's table the Eagles for a second because I, I, I, Lions, I think we can do. Okay. Lions I think we can do.

The Lions last year in a season where they fired their offensive coordinator midway through the season and the offensive line was a jumbled mess for half the year, finished sixth in EPA per play. They were top five in offensive DVOA. The offensive line should be better this year. Even with the Cade May's injury, the offensive line should be better. I think Tate Raoul would be better this year. Their tackle play overall with, you know, Taylor Decker was a shell of himself last season. I mean, even if he was in the lineup.

and I think they're really excited about what Blake Miller has been and just the floor. I think that's what it is. The reliability and the floor I think are worth buying into with that combined with Pente Soule. I just, and that skill position talent, like I just, I have a lot of faith in this being one of the best offenses in the league again.

I think the reservation about the Lions would be, well, what's going to happen with the defense? Where do you think the Lions finished in defensive DVOA last year? It's like eight or 11th. It's nine. Yeah. They were really good. They were ninth.

They weren't bad at all. And so you look at the guys that, all right, Terry and Arnold's not there. Terry Arnold played 312 snaps last season. It wasn't particularly good. It wasn't good. Kirby Joseph only played 300 snaps last year. So even if, well, when's Kirby Joseph going to be back? Kirby Joseph didn't play a year ago.

And I think that the front has a chance to be considerably better than it was last year. Alie McNeil played half the season last year, but he was not right. And by all accounts, he has been a 10. hair during training camp. And so if he looks like Lee McNeil again, we have Aden Hutchinson back, year two of Tileak Williams, the lineback in core, even without Alex Anzolone,

is still a good group with Jack Campbell there. They feel, Calvin Shepard told me he thinks the other edge spot right now opposite Aiden Hutchinson is the best collection it has been since he's been there. Even if it looks like they don't have a difference-making player, I think the guys they feel like they can rotate through that spot. Last year was Al-Qaedaine Muhammad.

This year they have, DJ Wanam is a capable player for the roles they're going to ask him to play. Derek Moore is in there now. I do think that the front has a chance to be good enough, combined with the fact that the secondary is no worse than it was last year for the most part. And this team still finished ninth in defensive DVOA. On top of all of this, going into the season, they have the easiest schedule in the league. They have a hilariously manageable looking schedule. And I do, you can roll your eyes if you want, but I think that it matters to imagine

that like the lions have a very clear path toward a home playoff game or maybe even home playoff games if they do well enough and like in like the division is wide open if they benefit from that and the NFC north plays the NFC south this year that it's as favorable a draw as you could ask for at the very least so yeah the opportunity is there I hate to call it like fraudulent but the opportunity is there for the Lions to do some record padding well and I will say I think sometimes we you know having home field advantage in the playoff is obviously great i do think it matters more for the lions than it might for other teams because i do think the jared goff like inside outside stuff is kind of real and if so i mean i don't even think he plays outside this year until like deep

because they play so many teams they either get like good games at home or they're uh you know playing teams who are also in domes so i think that they could win a ton of games and i think if we're trying to make the case between them and the eagle specifically i think you have an equal case that the Eagles defense and the Lions offense can be top three or even the best in the league. I think you can make about equal cases for each of them. I think I feel a little bit better about the Lions defense being like 12th than I do the Eagles offense being like 12th. And I think that that's probably where I land between those two.

I feel similarly. And I think that's probably the argument that I would make. I think the Lions offense among all of the teams like with fringe categories or like that are on the fringe, I just I feel so. confident in the lion's offense to be really good. And that's not to say, like the bingles and Cowboys offenses will be great too, but I was going to say the Cowboys are probably the next team in this

conversation. Even still, like they have such a track record of success going across multiple play callers, good years, bad years, good health, bad health. I just, I trust that it'll be at that level to make them worthy of this conversation. So do we want to put the Lions on?

That's fine. I think we put the Lions on. I'm glad to talk this through. I think we put the Lions on. All right. So. We have one more spot. One spot. We talked about the Jags already. We talked about the Eagles already. Two teams we have not discussed.

What about the charters? I crossed them off of my list. Why? Here's why. Right now you can only go back to 2018 for DVOA, but the only two teams that have won the Super Bowl without a top five unit on either side of the ball in DVOA are the 23 chiefs. Okay, you have Patrick OA. from homes you're kind of cheating and they were top 10 in both but they just weren't like an elite

unit or it's the 2018 Patriots beating the Rams which again the best quarterback of all time and an unbelievably inspired defensive game plan by the best defensive play caller we've ever seen I just it's hard for it I think it's harder for me to get to a place where the chargers are like a top five unit on either side of the ball and really driving them there and I just even if I think it's a good coaching staff, them being a team that is like fringe top 10 in both, it just doesn't feel as inspiring to me as a case as, again, the Lions being like the literal best offense in the league and, you know, just like an averageish defense. So I think they'll be good. I think they're just a team where like, I want to actually see their capacity to be elite at something rather than just

good. Changing the play caller on defense changes the math for me and I don't think the personnel is so overpowering that I can overlook that. And as excited as I am about the Chargers offense in theory, most of the skill talent is an idea more than anything we've definitely seen in the NFL. They just lost their starting center for how long yesterday. And Rishon Slater's been dealing with something to, I hope to hell that the Chargers are as exciting as we all think they can be. But that doesn't mean I have to put them at the table before the season starts.

And it's my same argument with the Chargers for years now. I think they're a good, well-rounded roster. Do they have enough stars to win the Super Bowl? I don't know. I just don't know if they do. I mean, okay, I'll even give you Mack just because of everything he's accomplished, but like he's not the Khalil Mack from earlier in his career. So you have Herbert and Khalil Mack counts because of, like, I respect the hell out of him.

And then maybe Tully, like, I think, Derwin James. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Derwin James, and then it depends on what you think of the Tully season from last year and projecting it into this year. And again, but I mean like all pros. And like Tully's a really good player and Mac is still, I think a really good player. But I mean like set in stone, this guy can be an all pro. Because like even for whatever issues we have with the Eagles, they might have like seven guys who I'm like, yeah, he could be an all pro. I just don't know if I can get all the way there with the Chargers. I get it. And the Chargers, we talk about Super Bowl odds and the Broncos having the 13th best. and that being a little bit confusing over the course of the offseason. The Chargers right now

have the fifth best Super Bowl. They have better Super Bowl than the Patriots, than the Chiefs, then the Texans, than the Eagles, than the Lions. And I just don't really understand why.

Because I'm with you. I think the best version of this team is awesome. Like if Crystal Leary can give you something akin to what Jesse Mentor has over the last couple years, and the offense is as exciting

as we want it to be, holy shit, is this team going to be fun? it's all theory all of it and so I think in an exercise like this the fact that that's all theory is enough to be like I kind of just want to see

it before we're going to make them one of the best 10 teams in the league I don't think it's that hard actually not to mention if there's collective optimism here not to pull out the caveman logic and act like the playoffs are all that matters but it's been so bad when the Chargers have gotten there the last two years

it's like to jump from you get annihilation in your first playoff game to this team can win the Super Bowl. It's fine to watch some games before we get there. All right, I'm fine with this. Okay, so the Chargers are off. What about the Cowboys? Let's do the Cowboys.

We can do the Cowboys and Bengals together if we want to. However you want to do it, let's do it. I took one of them off and kept one of them on. Why did you keep the Cowboys on versus taking the Bengals off? That's my question. I think the Cowboys offense, again, I've said this. I said this. I think when we were making the case about the offense.

I just think that they can do more things. And the Bengals are trying to tell us they can, that they can go under center more, that Eric Al is going to be kind of like a fullback, you know, hybrid move player for them. I just feel like the Cowboys are deeper in the ways that they can actually do some of these things. And I also, I think even like, let's side aside

the fact that the offenses are like almost mirror images of each other, and I just believe a little bit more in the flexibility on that side for the Cowboys. I think I can sell myself on the defense getting there more than I can with the Bengals. That's what I think ultimately what like broke my tie between these two teams that are like sisters of each other. Here's why I agree with that. The Bengals, the case for optimism for the Bengals defense is solely personnel based. Right? Yeah. It's solely based on the guys they added this offseason and they added difference making players. Dexter Lawrence is a difference making player and they are betting so big on him changing the way that entire unit feels. And it's an understandable bet. He is that sort of,

again, force multiplier is an overused term. He gave the bear's hell in joint practice on Thursday from what I understand. One of my favorite conversations I had all of training camp was talking to Ted Karras in Cincinnati and just what it has been like for him over the last two and a half weeks to have to deal with that guy every single day. Did you see what Ted said today? No. They asked him about watching Dexter pick the bear's ass. He said it was great.

It validated a lot of my insecurity. He's like he's had to hold on for deer. life every single practice. And I do think that there's a chance to external change is so much about the defense. But even beyond that, the edge room is so much deeper than it was a year ago. Brian Cook getting the tackling to the third level, all that. I get the vision. I've gotten the vision.

But you still have a play caller and a defensive coaching staff that put out a stinker last year. They were so bad. Dallas, maybe the personnel that they added isn't quite on the same level as the guys that the Bengals added. but you are much better personnel-wise with the pieces that you put together and you're turning over into a new play caller

and how many times have we seen this where we have no idea how much of an impact a new defensive coordinator will have on these teams the Jags from last year the Falcons from last year these are the uncertain elements that can lead to drastic leaps forward and so I think the environmental change

combined with an uptick and personnel quality coming at it from two different directions where the Bengals are only coming at it from one direction, I think it makes me a little bit more confident that the Cowboys can take the sort of jump they need to to deserve consideration here. It's funny because we left the Seahawks off our preliminary table last year, right?

And we rectified that, I don't know, pretty quickly, like four or five weeks into the season probably. I think it might have been quicker than that. After they beat the Steelers, I was like, I'm in. Yeah, I was like week three. Like are we bad for not anticipating that the Seahawks were capable of making that type of jump? Or are we good for letting them do it first? And that's where I am with the Cowboys and the Bengals.

I have, I understand all of the arguments and I hope they're correct, especially two teams that I have personal investments in. I hope that they're correct. But why do I have to assume that before they've done it and competed on that level? But you need to do the same thing with the Eagles offense to put the Eagles on? I think the Eagles have more of a track record of success in those situations. I mean, even when the Eagles' offenses have been bad, two years now, they've made the playoffs and been teams that you had to reckon with, even if they were a pain in the ass to watch. AJ Brown isn't here anymore.

I'm just going to throw that out there. We're relying really heavily on Devante Smith, Dantavian Wicks, and a Mikhail Lemon who just started practicing again. And hopefully a running game that is a hell of a lot more effective than it was last year. It should be, right? But the offensive line, that's another thing we haven't talked about with the Eagles. The offensive line health stuff, those guys are,

that just might be the new normal with that collection of players. Like, Landon Dickerson, having really intentional practice reps and them managing all that stuff. I don't know, man. The Eagles' worst record since this run started in 2022 is 11 at 6.

That's bad for them. Like when they suck to watch and their offense isn't clicking, it's 11 and 6. But do we think right now the Eagles have a better chance to win this Super Bowl than the Dallas Cowboys do? That is the question we're asking. Let's talk about the episode we did two months ago where we talked about whether quarterback and offensive-driven success matters more. Let's say the Cowboys offense jumps up to like 20th this year.

I don't know. Defense. Sorry, thank you. Sorry, defense. If it jumps up to 20th and it's just like a middling to bad defense. and the offense is gangbusters. I don't know. Would you rather have a mediocre defense

and a good, great offense or a great defense and a mediocre offense? I still think great offense, mediocre defense. Even if the other path is more viable to a championship, I still think I'd rather have the great offense and mediocre defense. And I... You just said the other path is more viable to a championship.

It's more viable than it used to be. Than it used to be. Got you. And I also think that it's for, at least for me, and I think that this is a little bit... There are elements of this that applied to the Bengals, but not all of them. I think in the world that I envision where the Cowboys offense is a fireworks show

and they're the second or third best offense in the NFL, it's not just that they're great and productive. It's that they are great and productive in all the ways that might break what defenses are doing, where it's being able to run out of 12 and 21 personnel. It's being able to line up our ex-s receiver and George Pickens and really run all these routes outside of the numbers where so much of coverage right now

is trying to take away these like, you know, in-breakers and all that stuff. I just think that if, it goes right, they just kind of have the right answers for what defenses are trying to do that, like, if they can get over some of the playoff struggles that DAC has had, which I think it's like kind of an overblown thing anyway outside of that 49ers game a couple of years ago, I just, I kind of think that, I just feel like they are, they just are built in a way that has answers.

I think I have more faith in the Cowboys defense, getting to a level it needs to be championship than the Eagles offense right now. I get why that might sound crazy based on the heights we've seen from the Eagles offense over the last couple years when they've been rolling. But I think that's where I'm at. And I think that's why I would just be more prone

to put the Cowboys on here than the Eagles. I just, the way that the Cowboys have jumped into these sorts of conversations, it makes perfect sense, but it just makes me deeply uncomfortable. And I don't think, Ed, we can think the world of Christian Parker, I don't think the personnel is as good as people want it to be.

I mean, if Caleb Downs really comes in and is a rookie of the year candidate and has an immanwory like effect, and I'm not saying that's not possible, but like it would take something like that. I really, I think the personnel on the defensive side of the ball gets overstated a little bit, not a little bit, a lot, honestly. If the Eagles were, if it wasn't still a projection with the Eagles offense, then I think it's a different conversation, but we're still waiting to see it

with one of the units on either team. We're still waiting to see it. I understand AJ Brown's gone, but like the shitty version of the Eagles offense has been good enough to put them in position to make a run in the playoffs. Obviously they haven't done that, but like the shitty version of the Dallas defense

has made this team irrelevant because they weren't remotely good enough to even bother with. And I don't expect them to be the worst defense in the NFL this year. But I just think defense is so volatile. It's so volatile. And I can just talk myself into a massive leap there more easily than I can talk myself into the Eagles making a massive leap.

The other thing that makes me uncomfortable as somebody who's lived this, and you can throw this out as vibes and not concrete if you want to, I wonder how much it matters that it is impossible for the Dallas Cowboys to lie in the cut. it is impossible for them to be like the Seahawks and like not get talked about heading into a very promising season. And guess what? The decision makers there want it that way. They want to be in the spotlight and generating all this sort of conversation. And like I said, I can't point to a tangible effect that has.

But I just wonder if they would be better off sneaking up on people. But it will never ever happen. We'll never know what that's like. I'll say this. I get that on like a national media level. And that's all it's 100% true. I don't want to say we're better or different than the larger conversation. This show is not that.

I understand that. I have shit on this team. Over. You over again over the last couple years. As the guy driving the Cowboys train is a fun bit of poet justice. And I think that, again, I think I don't, I'm not saying that's the reason we should do it. But if they've swayed me, I feel like there, that's enough for me to believe that this could feel a little bit different.

I think I also kind of disagree with the idea that like there have been years where the Eagles defense drags them to the playoffs and the offense hasn't viable enough path. Almost all of those years like the offense has looked horrible in some of those years. Like 20, like 2023 did not play a good game against Tampa. Jalen Hurts his first season playing, he looked horrendous against Tampa. And then even last year, I know it's a 19 to 23 game against the Niners, but you lost to a Niners team that was banged up in. like pretty fake and like the offense really did not look viable against what is not a good defense like I just

I think even though they've gotten there in years where sometimes Dallas has not I think the blow up actually to me would suggest that in some of those years the offense was never actually good enough for them to make a run how are you feeling over there I can't believe it's time to vote guys I can't believe y'all are going to make me do this I'm picking the cowboys you're being the cowboys so we're out

on the Bengals firmly just because I think the situations are similar enough and again I think because the Cowboys potentially defensive improvement is coming from two different directions, that's the tiebreaker for me. It's really close. The Jaguars are. I think the Jags are out.

I just think that the, for me, I think that the Cowboys and Bengals, like the Cowboys specifically, I think have a quicker route to being like a top three offense than the Jags do. Yes. And I think the Jags might may well be a team by again, Halloween, we can put them on here. They to me have a similar case to the Chargers where I'm like, okay, I can see you being like top 10, top 12 in both.

I think I have to squint a little bit for you to be elite on either side of the ball and that's why I'm a little bit more hesitant here. And I think people would look at the advanced metric last year with the Jags defense and say, well, they were top five defense last year. They were top five defense last year. That's where the turnover's coming to play. The turnovers push them to a top five level on defense last year, even if the underlying metrics were more back half of the top 10.

But we're talking back half of the top 10 in both, is that enough like Derek is saying. And I would say the other thing, Derek, with comparing it to the Jags, elite players. Yeah. I just don't know if they have enough comparison point is, okay, the elite player thing about the Chargers, I think, applies

also to the Jags. I think there's a lot of similarities there. That's a valid criticism. Even if the play calling is the same for the Jags on both sides of the ball. That continuity, maybe you can talk yourself into that, but I think there are enough parallels where I'm with what Derek is, I'm picking up with what Derek is putting down here with that. And the last thing

I would say about the Jags, maybe with star players, at least I think there's an easier path for me to get there with them. Like, maybe Hunter is just unbelievable at corner. Maybe Trayvon Walker takes another step as he's already been developing. Maybe Brian Thomas Jr. looks like a star again. But I just, I still kind of want to see that stuff, even if I think that they can get there. You want to see that, but we're just buying the Cowboys defense as like top 12 wholesale. Quinn Williams is the best player among all the units that we just discussed.

I'm glad. I'm actually glad you brought him up. So Robert, you always say one of the things you need to win a Super Bowl is a five of pressure, five pressures a game sort of player. Williams last year had 44 pressures from a purely defensive tackle alignment, which was the sixth most in the NFL right behind Byron Murphy and between Chris Jones. He had a 12.2% pressure rate, which was fourth among defensive tackles with at least 300 plus pass rush snaps, which was only behind Kobe Turner, Christian Barmore, and Jeff Simmons. He's pretty good. Playing next to nobody. Playing next to nobody. Like he's pretty good. And so if- This is good, but I'm talking to edge talent, obviously. Right. The overall, but if the four or five players

that they've added are the it's funny. The way that they're getting where the Bengals are in terms of trying to lift the defense the Bengals needed to bring in the star. The Cowboys had him on the roster now with Quinn and Williams. They needed to bring in four guys to like raise the floor. I kind of

think that they can do it and I have faith at the offense that every time DAC is out there and they're healthy. This is the dumbest thing that I'm going to have done all offseason but we're putting the Cowboys on the table. Register vote Dave. Say you want this to be the Eagles. No, you know what? Oh, oh my God. They went in over Philadelphia.

They went on. I think I would rather put them in over the Philadelphia. Yeah, I lost track because I was, I had, I had Philly like eighth on my table. Like, I didn't even think that hard about it. Track record means a lot to me. What can I say? But you know what? I spoke my piece and my refusal to buy into the Cowboys is out of self-preservation more than anything.

You're also not a reliable narrator here. That's also a part of this. I am a reliable narrator and that's the problem. I've seen too much. I have seen too much. Like, y'all, you guys haven't lived this. I'm just saying, so maybe now you'll understand now that you're signing up for this ride for a whole year. It actually is so true.

But you know what? It would be so fun. It would be fun for it to happen. And so hopefully it will. But I just needed to speak my piece. All right. So those are our 10 teams. Cowboys, Lions, Broncos.

Patriots, Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks, ramps. I woke up this morning and I was like, I'm not letting these sons of b*** put the Cowboys at the table. And here we are. Majority rules, baby.

Wait, what is our, so what is our NFC split here? Is it four to six? Uh, yes. That feels right to me because I think the AFC is a little more. The FAC is top heavy. Yeah. But I think the AFC is deeper.

I think four, six is probably right. Mm-hmm. I don't yeah I that makes sense I mean my only real even divisionally like I think it's fine right like we're out we don't have a bunch of teams from one division we had the maxes two and and only one division got left out entirely and that's correct that makes sense yeah my only real qualm is I would have had Philly on over Dallas everything else looks fine to me I love I love for your place to push back maybe yeah that's true but like the chiefs is whatever like that makes perfect sense I think I would I would I would have been fine putting the Jags there over the chiefs, but giving deference to Mahomes makes total sense. All right. I'm sure this will age wonderfully. This is the point to bring up the,

well, we've discussed multiple times over the last few weeks, trying to figure out what the top of the league looks like, trying to figure out, this is 10 teams. Trying to figure out the 14 playoff teams is going to be excruciating. So cutting it down to 10 was always going to be tough. I can't wait for the comments on this one. I mean, it's going to be horrible. I'm turning them off in my brain.

There are reasons that we can take teams on and off. And this year we can take teams on and off a little bit more liberally than we even could last year. But these are the 10 teams we're starting with. That is the 2026 table on August 20th. And I'm sure we won't live to regret any of this. That is all we've got for today. We will be back on Saturday with our next Beat writer notebook. My last four stops.

Let's see if I can remember them on top of my head. Vikings, Lions, Bengals, Colts. Nailed it. Those are the four teams we have coming. That was the end of most of my training camp travel. I'm going to take a quick journey to Green Bay on Monday, but that's a quick old drive. So for the most part, I'm off the road. We have two more B-Writer training camp.

No Book is coming. We had two open slots for the final one. So we're going to chat with a couple of beatwriters where I couldn't travel to those training camps. So overall, we're going to end with 20 beat writer conversations as part of those episodes, which I think is a pretty good number. So please make sure to check that out tomorrow for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening.

We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.