The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - A Seat at the Table: The teams that can win the Super Bowl

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

It's time for an annual bit on The Athletic Football Show. And what better way to stage a bit on an NFL podcast than against the backdrop of the Super Bowl. As much upheaval as there is in the NFL every year, we all know that there's an inner circle of Super Bowl contenders to start the season. They are the teams with A Seat at the Table. The composition of the table will change as the season goes on, and we'll be there for every twist and turn. But for now, as the beginning of the season draws near, these are the 10 teams with A Seat at the Table.Host: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. I'm so excited about today's show. We had such a good time recording today's show. This is the exercise, game, however you want to refer to it, that we're going to try it out for you guys today. We're calling this a seat at the table. And we wanted to do this because we wanted something that we could just have

be a through line throughout the entire year that we could revisit. In the past, I've done a show most seasons where we'll talk about, which teams can win the Super Bowl. It's typically a list that's longer than you think, and there's really no stakes to it. You can throw as many teams on there as you want because you can build a case. So we wanted to do something sort of similar today,

but make it tougher. So what me, Derek, and Dave decided to do is we're calling this a seat at the table. And we pick 10 teams that we decided on August 12th have the best chance to win the Super Bowl. Who deserves a seat at the table of the real contenders as we get to the eve of the season. What we're going to do with this is that all year, this is going to change.

If there's a team that we feel like has risen and deserves to be in the conversation, it could happen at any point. Let's say it's two weeks into the season. One of the teams we had on, we realized that we've made a horrible mistake and another team has surprised us. We're going to revisit this discussion. We're going to flip around the tent. So it's going to be something that is always available.

It's always something that we can pull out. It's always something that we can talk about. we just thought it would be a fun wrinkle to add this year as we move into a new version of the athletic football show with the three of us. There's not to be a fun exercise, a fun thing to include. And boy, did we have fun making the initial version of this list. There were a few teams that were easy. There were just consensus teams.

There were a couple teams that really one team that I just vehemently argued against and I can't believe ended up on this list considering some of the teams that we left off. That's why 10 was a good number because they're going to be a couple teams that we we had to leave off here that none of us feel good about. So I really enjoyed this. I hope you guys do as well. Here's me, Dave Hellman, Derek Classen, and a seat at the table. Needless to say, I'm pretty excited about today's show on the athletic football show. We've never done this before. I think we've probably done some version of it that's been a little bit less official. There are years in the past, Dave, where I've done shows about which teams can win the Super Bowl.

But we kind of do it as like a half-hearted exercise on August 12th, and we don't stick with. it like you're not held to it in any way it has no staying power the point of today's exercise is something that we're going to try to carry throughout the season this is going to be a living breathing document about the teams we believe have a realistic shot to win a championship this year and who has what we're calling a seat at the table i'm simultaneously excited but also dreading it a little bit for that very reason because this is going to live with us for the entire football season. And who knows, maybe we'll regret something we say today two weeks into the episode or yeah, two weeks into the season. Maybe, you know, it'll be tough to make these calls

about when it's time to inject a new team into the conversation or take one out. And I, I fear accountability, I guess is what I'm saying. But it's going to be good for the show in the long run. I'm excited to do it. The goal here, Derek, is that like Dave alluded to, if we get to like week four or five and there's a team that we did not have in our original 10 and that's what we're going to land on here is 10 teams and all three of us any three of us at any point during any of the shows that we're doing can kind of raise a hand and say that the committee has to come to the table and figure out if we're including a new team so I'm very much looking forward to this maybe we'll have some sort of like bell we can ring or button we can

press where an alarm goes off we'll do something stupid uh when it comes time to celebrate the addition of one of these conversations as we get into the season. Don't give me an alarm sound because I'll just ring it for the fun of it just to see how many times I can get away with it. I'm very excited for this exercise because I think going in, I thought I was going to be very excited about like, man, how do I build the case for all these teams? And then I actually started doing the exercise and I was just like, how do I build the case against all of these teams and whittled down the list?

Which I don't know. I feel like that said a lot about me as a person, which I thought was maybe a little bit terrifying. I want to talk through the process of how we got to the number a little bit. We first came to this idea in mid-July when the three of us were sitting around my kitchen table with Belor thinking about some of the things we wanted to do this season. And we're like, all right, what's the right number of teams? And you kind of have a gut feeling about what you think is correct. Like, 16 is too many, right? Like, there aren't 16 real contenders coming into the year. Twelve, probably still too many. Like, if you have 12, you don't have to make any hard cuts.

and the entire point of this is that it should be difficult to whittle it down to the final list of teams. And then so we're like, all right, is eight the right number? But eight is too small of a number. Like you're going to have to leave off teams with eight that are kind of unacceptable to have off of an exercise like this. So, Dave, eventually we landed on 10 to be the correct number because it's a small enough group where it feels special, but it's a big enough group where we're not going to show our ass by not including a team that eventually wins the Super Bowl in February. You say that now, but I'm just thinking about some of the teams that made the playoffs last year and one team in particular that made it to the NFC championship game. I mean, I know that that game was lopsided, but you never can completely predict the twist and turns of a season and who we're going to wind up talking about as we go along.

But I'm with you. I think eight would be painfully easy because once you get done with the real deal contenders, you're halfway there and you can fill it out as you go. 10, I think 10 is going to give us a real chance to argue. Yes. Which is a lot of fun for me because we already, when we were talking about this in pre-production, I already had a team that you didn't even put on your initial list. So I think there will be a good chance for some back and forth here with 10. I think it's the right number.

See, 10 to me felt like, again, and maybe this is a little bit insight into the way I think about things. 10 to me felt like the right number because we go into the playoffs now with 14 teams. And every year there's three or four teams where I'm just like, no shot. Why are they here? Why are they even in the dance? Like, what is the point of this? This is a great justification of the science behind our stupid exercise that actually includes

no real science whatsoever. I appreciate this. All right. Let's dig into it. So here's what we're going to do. We're going to, this is going to be a consensus, right? Like, all three of us have to agree on all of the teams that we're going to include here. So I felt like the easiest way to kick this off was just to start with the teams that

are kind of no-brainers. Like, as we move into the 2025 season, we know all of these teams. have a seat at the table. They are legitimate contenders as we get into mid-August here in the heart of training camp. So Dave, these are the five teams that I'm just going to throw in and say we don't really have to do a lot of talking about them. The Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champions who bring back a huge part of their roster, I think they probably deserve to be included here. The Chiefs who went to the Super Bowl last year and go to the Super Bowl seemingly every year. So I would assume they're thrown into the contender bucket.

the Bills and Ravens, both of whom had championship caliber rosters last year, I think at times felt like the best teams in football for stretches of last season, even if they fell short in the playoffs. And the other team I'm going to throw out, even with all of the turnover on the offensive line, at both coordinator spots, I still think the amount of truly excellent players they have, plus the earned equity they've built over the last couple years. We're going to throw the Detroit Lions in here as well. well. So among those five teams, Dave, is there anyone that you think doesn't deserve this

like automatic inclusion or do you feel pretty good about those five? I don't want to push back too hard because ultimately I came down the way that you did. I wrote it down in my notes where I was like, look, the talent on the Lions roster is still really impressive. Dan Campbell has earned the right for me to trust that he can handle the coaching turnover. And if there are hiccups along the way, I also trust Dan Campbell to navigate it. So at the end of the day, I come down agreeing with you where I'm fine throwing the lions into this category. But would you agree with me that there's probably like a little bit of a line break between those other four and the lions? Yes.

Like I am more confident in the first four that you named, Bill's, Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles. I'm much more confident in those teams than I am in the Lions. just because the lions have enough turnover in personnel, they have enough question marks with players coming back from injury or losing players to injury. The coaching aspect of it is huge. And they play in an incredibly competitive division. I'm fine putting them here, but I just don't feel as rock solid about them as a contender.

I feel fine saying the lions are a playoff team. But if we're supposed to be talking about teams that can really win a championship, I do think the lions are at least a rung. below the other four, but I'm still fine putting them in this category. So that's kind of where I land here. Even if they're a rung below the other four, we're not going to not include them in the top 10. Like there's nothing to really argue about with the lions, even if we have concerns.

And I do have concerns. But this is something we'll dig into. We're going to start division previews, I believe a week from today. We're running this on Wednesday the 13th. I believe next week, next Wednesday, August 20th is our first division preview. we're going to have a very deep considered layered lions conversation about what we can actually expect from this team. So I don't want a super step on that.

I have my concerns. I have my issues with some of the turnover. I do think that what they can be on defense from a talent perspective can kind of overshadow some of these offensive concerns. So even if I think you have to squint a little bit more with the lions, I'm fine throwing him in here, Derek. Yeah, they're a team where I think you for the other four could reasonably rank those as the best four chances.

to win the Super Bowl going in, like those four teams. Whereas the Lions, I'd probably if I were to rank all of these teams, one to 10 would probably put them closer to seven or eight. But again, I think it would be pretty unreasonable to put them outside of the list entirely. Like earned equity is the right word. Even if I have so many questions, it's like they still have the quarterback and the head coach and they just won like 15 games. They're probably going to be pretty good again.

Yes. And I think there are more questions when it comes to just turnover at specific and important spots with the Lions than a lot of the other teams on this list. But I think the roster talent is so overwhelming and what they were at their best last year. The best case scenario for this team is the best team in football, full stop. If John Morton's a good offensive coordinator, if Calvin Shepherd is good at this, if the offensive line is 85% of it was last year, this can still be the best team in the NFC again. So even if there are more questions, I still feel like the upside. An upside we have realized for this team and stretches in the past, that's why it's kind of easy for me to write them in and

just move on to the rest. I think that's fair. All right. So let's dig through these other teams. What we're going to do is, after establishing those five consensus teams, is I'm just going to go one by one here and we're going to talk through the other candidates, the other contenders for a seat at the table here. This is pretty much just going an order of Super Bowl odds. So there's nothing overly complicated about why I'm listing the teams in the order I'm listing them. That's kind of why we're doing it the way that we're doing it. So let's start with these San Francisco 49ers. Derek, do you believe coming off of last year that the San Francisco 49ers deserve a seat

at the table heading into the season? I would still give them a seat at the table. Because I think at the end of the day, if you just tell me that Kyle Shanahan is going into the season with the same quarterback, a quarterback who I believe to be better now than he was at this time a year ago, you still have maybe the best tight end in the league. like I just, the offense, the floor feels like the tent best in the league, which is basically kind of what they were last year with a hundred things going wrong. And then I've said enough times on this show that I think the defense will be,

it will be fine. I don't think it's going to be a great unit, but I think it'll be solid. So them to me is just, I don't know, Kyle Shanahan, you always have a seat. Dave, if you, a couple weeks ago, we did the half-bake take show. And your half-bake take about the Niners was you're just not going to overthink it, like this is an 11-win playoff team. That's a half-bake take. I'm holding you to this now.

Are you willing to make it a fully baked opinion here about a week or two later about the Niners? I had a chance to leave that take in the oven and I feel just fine with it, honestly. So I know this isn't a consensus list, but I made my own personal 10. Just to just to reference while we talk through this. I put the 49ers at 8 on my, in my personal in Dave Hellman's table, it's easy to imagine this version of the 49ers still winning. 11, maybe even 12 or 13 games. And like, yeah, I don't need to rehash what Derek just said, but I agree with all of that.

Again, earned equity of what Kyle Shanahan can do, earned equity that Robert Sala knows how to get the most out of a defense, even if his Jets teams weren't always that good. And I keep bringing this up and I'm sorry if it's repetitive. I know you can't completely project a schedule ahead of time, but this is a very favorable schedule for a team with Sanford. Francisco's roster. Obviously, it is a very tough division, but they play seven of the teams that picked in the top 10 of the draft this year. They finished last place in their division last year. That's what I'm saying. It is a hell of a leg up. And it's part of why the 49ers do these crazy bounces. Like the years where it all goes wrong, they usually bounce back in a big way because they benefit from playing an easier schedule than a team with their talent should.

I think they're going to benefit from that again. So give a team with this talent and this coaching that type of slate, yes, I think they belong on this list. And I didn't really stress that much about it. They're probably more fragile aspects of their offense than there have been in years past where we could just pencil them in as one of the best three or four offenses in the league. Like even if they stay healthier this year, Derek. Ricky Pearsall didn't see for much of last season. They're going to be relying on him in a big way, especially before Brandon I.U.

comes back. Christian McCaffrey is healthy, right? He's healthy coming into the season. But I don't know. Color me skeptical that I could just rely on that at this point. I know that for the most part, he's been much less injury prone in recent years than he had been during stretches in Carolina. And last year he came into the season banged up. Like this isn't a situation where on August 12th of last year, they were like, oh, yeah, he's fine.

He was already hurt. And so the fact that he's coming into this camp healthy, there's reason to believe they're going to be able to rely on Christian McCaffrey this year. And while I think the offensive line is shaky at best, it's kind of always what it is. and I know Trent Williams is a year older, and maybe there's a chance the cliff comes for Trent Williams, or he struggles to stay healthy again this year. But I just think most of the pads, if this team isn't decimated by injury again,

and with this being a top 10 offense in San Francisco. And if that's the case, we know a defense can have one or two, three breaks and put a team in contention that's built like that. Yeah, I think it's just like, again, we might not see the top two or three version of the offense that we've gotten at certain points. where they're scoring 32 points a game.

But like, if the floor last year was ninth, and Christian McCaffrey is 10 to 15% better than he was last year, and Pierceall is any degree better in year two, like, why would this not be better than it was last year? Which was, again, a really good offense that kept them in a lot of games and a lot of games that they lost by like pretty close margins. Like, this was a 6 and 11 team, but it's not like they were getting hammered in a lot of these games.

No, I think that there is enough, there's reason to believe that enough of the breaks that didn't go their way last year may go, their way this year and we'll see a much better version of this team. So the Niners are in. The Niners have a seat at the table despite what 2024 looked like. This one I feel like is going to be a little tougher, even though their Super Bowl odds, I believe, are better than the Niners Super Bowl odds.

The Cincinnati Bengals, David. In your mind, do the Cincinnati Bengals have a seat at the table? I'm expecting pushback on this, but I firmly have them at the table. and I can hear people laughing at me. If you don't agree, that's fine. I cannot quit them. And more important than not, like that I can't, I won't. I will not do that.

I'm sorry. I know that it is about more than quarterback play and gaudy offensive stats, but you cannot expect me to write off a team with a quarterback that played at an MVP level and all of the talent that he has around him. And that's what Joe Burrow was. I'm not saying he should have won MVP. but Joe Burrow played at an MVP level last year. At worst, he's the fourth best quarterback in the NFL.

We did a whole show about it where we didn't even bother discussing Joe Burrow because he's that good. All I need is for the defense to be below average. I don't even, like, we've done this before. Like, I just need them to be like 23rd best in the league. And this is a 10 or 11 win team because they went 9 and 8 with a bottom 5 defense. four, like just to rehash guys, Cincinnati went four and four in games where they scored 30 points last year.

That is preposterous. And what are the odds that it happens two years in a row? I get it. I've seen that roster. I don't know. I know. Look, the irony that I'm making this case a few days after their first string defense got decimated

by the Eagles' backups in the preseason, I get it. I don't have a lot of optimism for the defense being good either, but I will ride with an MVP caliber quarterback and Jemar Chase and T. Higgins and all that good stuff. I'll ride with it every time. And if I look silly again this year, then I'll just, I'll just have to deal with it. But I'm not giving up on that type of firepower. I'm curious where you end on this, Derek. So they're the team I had the weirdest experience with, because I've talked about how much this entire offseason, I don't like the defense. I think they could

be bottom five again, all this other stuff. Like, I'm not even 100% sure. I feel like they're a playoff lock. But kind of like I was talking at the top of the show, I feel like I went through my list of like, I don't trust that about this team. Ooh, that looks stinky. Ooh, that I don't know if this team has enough firepower. And I landed myself where I got with the Bengals and I was like,

there's only like seven teams I actually feel great about. And if I don't feel great about the rest, at least the Bengals have Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. And that was kind of where I landed. So they were a team that I thought I was going to be closer to like, are they the 10th on the fringe type of team? but I actually weirdly felt comfortable putting them at the table. I think every team we're going to talk about here outside of those Consensus 5 that we just mentioned,

there's some huge question mark, right? Even the teams that I think have fewer roster holes than the Bengals, the Packers, for example, there's still a question mark about whether this can all come together. I mean, I just spent the entire day in Green Bay. I was talking to Matt Schneiman, our beat reporter there, and you guys will hear that show a little bit later this week if you listen to the Beat Writer Notebooks on Saturday. the entire conversation was essentially just me talking through my existential issues with the Green Bay Packers and how like they're like this theoretical object that it's like well of course this should happen right it should happen look at all this stuff

but until it happens it's just hard to totally get behind we'll talk about the Packers in a second but it's either that kind of team or other teams that there's a roster hole here there's a roster hole there like the Chargers it's like who are the look at the offensive line like the state of the offensive line who are their difference makers on defense. With Washington, who are their difference makers on defense? Every team we're going to talk about here is imperfect. I'm willing to put the Bengals in here because even if they are an imperfect team and they have a long, long way to go on defense,

among all the other teams we're about to talk about, is there a unit among these like 18 that you feel better about heading into this season than the Cincinnati Bengals offense? Not many. Not really. And that was, I think, why I had the weird experience with them because I think there's a chance that the defense is so bad that during the regular season,

it might make it hard to win enough games to really get a good spot in the playoffs. But I mean, if they get there, you have Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and they can score 30 points a game in a playoff game. That was actually my biggest deciding factor when I did this, is we're going to talk about some teams where it's like, okay, they could win 10, 11 games,

they could be really good, but can I imagine them winning three games in a row? potentially on the road to get to the Super Bowl. Can I picture that happening? And with a few of these teams, I was like, not really. With the Bengals, I absolutely can picture that. I can picture them doing that with vivid clarity. We've seen them do it before.

Granted, I'm well aware the Bengals defense carried them through the 2021 playoffs. But when you have Burrow and those guys playing at the level we've seen in recent years, you can picture it. And you just need the defense to do a little bit of work. That's why it makes me laugh. The Bengals are going to step on themselves three times this year, and I'm going to catch hell for believing in them. But I don't care.

If they get in the dance, they will be one of those teams that everybody views as incredibly dangerous because there just aren't many teams that can bring what they do to the table on offense. This is always a dangerous thing to say. And I'm not even going to fully say it. There's a temptation with the Bengals defense team. to say it couldn't be worse, it could be worse. It could always be worse.

But if you look at the construction of this group and the defensive line specifically, and you just think about all the guys they were missing last year, Sheldon Rankins just didn't play, right? And so they at least went out and got T.J. Slaten this year. Chris Jenkins is somebody that his name came up multiple times this weekend when I was talking to Zach Taylor, when I was talking to Al Golden. Like, who among those young defensive players do we think has progressed? And I think Chris Jenkins is somebody they were excited about.

So a lot of the young pieces who maybe. weren't contributors last year. Maybe they take a small step forward. We don't need like gangbusters production from this side of the ball. We need like merely bad. And I think the Bengals deserve a spot in this conversation. And I am open-minded enough to believe that we can get to merely bad with the Bengals defense. I still struggle with that.

But we'll see when we start playing games. Yeah. Remind me at like at like 3.30. in the afternoon in week two when they're just getting sliced and diced by, I don't even know who they play, but they'll probably get murdered by whoever they play. And I'll have to think about this again. But right now in August, I think they can be merely bad. No, that's why the Bengals are the most annoying, actually, is because in September, you don't know what the Bengals are. You have to get to late, you have to get to Halloween to know what the Bengals are because they're like every

year they've been bad in September, regardless of whatever we want to say about it. Hey, but they played the starters in the preseason and they looked great. So I am, look, that's my copium. My copium is that that's going to matter and that they're going to score 30 points in week one. The offensive starters looked great. Don't worry about that. Don't worry about that, Robert.

I know. It's one of those moments. I was there like two days after they played that preseason game against the Eagles. And there was almost like an apologetic tone from people being like, well, you know, we didn't do anything in that game. We were really vanilla in that game. It's like, guys, I don't give a shit about what the defense looks like. like in the preseason game.

Like you don't have to apologize to me about how that just went. But it's just funny that even in the preseason, there's kind of like a, I promise, it's like when you, you meet a significant other's like, like friend and like that person comes off really badly. And they're just like,

I promise that Tracy is not like that all the time. Like I'm really sorry. Like I just, I understand that was bad, but I promise you that's not how it always, that's not how it goes. I actually love hearing that because I know the cliche is that you want guys to block out the noise and everything,

but everybody in that building should be well aware that, like, that can't happen. It's the only thing stopping you from being a Super Bowl contender. That's what we're talking about. Everybody in the building should be alarmed and trying to have the defense be better. So good for them for at least having urgency. The one other thing I'll say about the offense for Cincinnati, I think they have a chance to be better personnel-wise on offense this year than they were last year. because the guard play, there are questions about the guards this year, right?

Cody Ford and Lucas Patrick at right guard. You have a third round rookie stepping in at left guard. That's a situation where I actually do feel pretty confident saying it couldn't be worse. It couldn't be worse than it was last year. That one I can buy more, actually, yes. So even if you have a rookie and a competition at right guard, I still feel like that combined with the Marius Mims being healthy at right tackle for the entire season. I just think that there is a chance.

Chase Brown being the starting running back from day one, them being able to construct the running game around his strengths versus whatever they were doing last year at this time. So there is a real chance. The Bengals are the best offense in football, full stop. And that just demands a lot less of your defense. So I think there's a clear path for them to get there than almost any of the other teams we're going to talk about.

And that's why I feel like I'm fine throwing them in here. All right, we are going to take a quick break. And then we're going to come back and talk about some other teams that deserve a seat at the table. All right. Next one here. I feel like this one is going to be an interesting discussion. The Washington commanders who have the same Super Bowl odds as the Bengals,

Dave, I see the pain on your face already. Do you think the Washington commanders deserve a seat at the table heading into the season? Against, no, not even against my better judgment. That's not how I want to phrase it. I'm taking a gamble and I'm saying yes, but it goes against my belief in what this team is. in totality, right? Like, we've done shows about this. I've already expressed my concern about Washington's roster. The average age is 29. The average age of their starters is even older.

You are asking for significant returns from Zach Ertz, Bobby Wagner. Marshawn Latimore is only like 29, but he is a cornerback. So that, you know, 29 for a cornerback is like 33 for any other position. Von Miller is hopefully going to do something for this team. Terry McLaurin, still not practicing as we record this right now. I don't like a lot of stuff about this team. I don't like that they went seven and two in one score games last year, which is typically a sign that you should look for regression the next year. I don't like their strength of schedule.

I could keep going about things that I don't like, but ultimately, I like Jaden Daniels that much. And that's what it comes down to for me, where if Jaden Daniels is fucking awesome, then none of that might matter. And he could be the type of guy that could carry an effort like that. And I thought that a month and a half ago, but now that we've had a long period of training camp, every time I check in on what's going on in Ashburn, people are talking in like reverent tones about what Jaden Daniels is doing. And I know you got to take training camp with a grain of salt. But when everybody from the beatwriters to the national people that stopped by for a couple of days to the broadcasters that do the preseason games, like when everybody's saying the same stuff about how he's performing, that starts to carry weight with me where I'm like, okay, maybe this guy really can just will the commanders back to a 12 win season.

Like maybe he really is going to take that step. I'm not all the way there, but that is ultimately what led me to think that they belong here. aside from whatever the impressions are of the people who are at practice, I think they're kind of treating it that way in Washington. Like, just as a foregone conclusion that like, hey, he's just one of the guys. That he's one of those guys. We have one of those guys. And in hearing how they approach personnel this offseason where they go out,

they add offensive linemen. You know, they go out and get Debo, but like, Debo was available for a fifth round pick. It's not a huge swing in terms of resources overall. The big swings they made, the trade for tonsil, drafting a tackle in the first round, is we are going to make sure, come hell or high water, that we protect this quarterback.

Because if you look around the league and you look at the great quarterbacks, as long as they're protected, they can lift the past catchers. That's true of Josh Allen. But for that to make sense in Washington, Jaden Daniels needs to be as good as Josh Allen. And I think them kind of following that sort of model tells you everything you need to know about what type of quarterback they think Jaden Daniels is.

The question is whether or not that's warranted. see this is the team I have I don't even have I know you're going to be in pain over this and it's actually I am going to be a pain over this not in pain I said in pain yes well it's going to be both I have like the Jaden Daniels part of this

I know I was skepticalish for a long time that is like the part of this I am least thinking about it's every other part of this roster I still really don't like the defense I think the front could be kind of stinky and I'm a little bit scared of the pass rush a little bit. And I'm still a little bit worried about a lot of interior pieces that I think have a little bit more to prove in terms of the young players and signing Javon Kinlaw the way that they did. There's a chance the secondary is much improved and that kind of throws that out of the window and they become a pretty solid unit.

But that to me, I'm also a little bit in wait and see mode with that. The offense is a really tough one for me to get a handle on because I think Jaden Daniels is very good. and I think that there's a chance that because of the, because he never turns the ball over and also does what he does as a scrambler, he brings you such a high floor. I just, the Terry thing, even though that'll probably get done,

scares me a little bit. I think Debo Samuel is not really a player that we can fully rely on moving forward. And then like the Sam Cosme of it all kind of trips me out. They don't really have anything at tight end. Like I know Zach Ertz was productive last year, but he's only productive insofar as like he's catching a lot of six yard passes, which to me is not that scary.

all of that being said, and this is very bad process, if there's anything that might get me to say yes, that they deserve a seat, Josh Connerley looks unbelievable. He looked so good in that first preseason game. Then I was like, all right, dude, if he's going to be one of those, then maybe I can start to sell myself.

But I'm still like, I'm on the fence with this one still. It's really hard. Because I think there were enough high volatility aspects to who they were last year that if you're looking at those numbers, you can be like, come on, right? Like the fourth down stuff. So I'm looking at those numbers right now. That's literally what I was just looking at.

What percentage of the commander's fourth downs do you think that they converted last year? Dude, it's like 95. It's like all of them. It's 87%. That's obscene. So they were 20 of 23 on fourth down last year. The league average on fourth down last year was 57%. they were at 87%.

There were four teams above 70%. That's it. And they were at 87. Who were the other teams, Robert? The Eagles. They're very good teams. The Bills, the Chiefs, and the Eagles.

So that's another thing. Our locks, yeah. If those are the locks. And I think the Eagles, obviously, the four downs are driven by the Tush push and that's part of the efficiency there. But there are two teams

in the Bills and the Chiefs. Historically, when you look at third down numbers, third down numbers are all that bounce back and up and down. And I think about like the Carson Wentz Eagles in 2017. But two teams who do a very good job of staving that off every single year and are consistently good on third down are the bills and the chiefs because they have Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. So again, this is one of those other categories is of what do we think Jay Daniels is?

Do we think he's going to be one of those guys? Because if he is, then the questions about some of this stuff matter a little bit less. The interesting thing is I'm not ready to love. jump Jaden in with those guys as a quarterback, but it's not a hot take to say he is uniquely infuriating to deal with on third and fourth down. And so like even if Washington doesn't convert 85% again, I would take my chances that they're going to be really good in those situations again because they have Jaden Daniels at quarterback.

And that just is that that is a leg up when you talk about converting in those situations between his ability as a passer, his maneuverability, his mobility, his ability to make something out of a broken play. So that doesn't scare me. Like, banking on them to do it again scares me less when you have an athlete like that playing quarterback. I get that. And I do think that there's a case to be made that they'll probably be able to be really

good in those situations again because he is back there. All right. Why don't we table Washington for me? Yeah, I want to push them off to the side and talk to everyone else before. You guys are one-on-one. and I'm kind of on the fence. I think it'll be easier to figure this out if we cross more teams off

or we can throw more teams on definitively. Okay. Next one here, as we move through the Super Bowl odds, this is a front conversation considering the air stream of it all and everything that's happened this week and parking lots in Los Angeles. The Los Angeles Rams, Dave.

Jesus. Do the Los Angeles Rams deserve a seat at the table? Is it too reactionary to say that I'm officially scared shitless. No. No, I don't think so. When you're pulling out the fake futuristic technology and medicine, I'm a little like dubious, which is crazy, right?

Because they were a team that was mediocre all of last year. And then like almost made the Super Bowl, if not for like a little bit of snow, not letting Stafford move around in the pocket. And then we get here and I'm like, I don't know if I want to put them in anymore. They had my guy stretching out on a wireless phone charger. That's with that table in that in that,

trailer looked like. I was like, what is this? Is he low on battery? He is low on battery. I think that's the problem. Derek and I talked about this on a show. We did like a training camp storylines wrap up while you were on the road. And like what I settled on is that I'm not worried about Matthew Stafford's availability for week one. But all of a sudden when you talk, okay, forget the airstream nonsense. But even we talked about this too. When you're missing joint practices, which is the Rams. preseason, like that's how they prefer to do this. That is an alarm bell to me.

And all of a sudden, I'm really worried about Matthew Stafford playing 17 games in 18 weeks. And it's hard for me to put them on a list of contenders when I'm that scared of how fragile they could be. And we talked about it too. It's not just Stafford, right? It's Havenstein at right tackle. He's a 33-year-old player who's dealt with injury. Allerick Jackson.

Robert, last time we talked about the Rams, you had a positive update. on his health, but still a guy that you're probably optimistic. I think they were optimistic. But I don't, there's, it's still not certain, right? So already you're worried about the quarterback and the offensive line, which have been the things that have led to the Rams demise anytime during this Stafford era in L.A. So I just, if I'm already this worried about it before we've played a game, and that's not to say that they'll be a train wreck, like they'll probably have healthy stretches.

They've turned it on late in the season two years in a row. but can I count on that in August? I just, I don't really want to sign up for that marathon where I'm just continually stressed about the injury report coming out of L.A. This is why they are also one of the weirder teams to talk about. I think if I was rating, like if you told me as a guarantee, we got the best realistic version of every team in the NFL, I would say the Rams are like the fifth or sixth best team in the league.

But we don't have to do that. Well, that's what I'm saying. is like, but then I think about what is the percentage chance that we actually get that for enough of the season. I start to get a little bit more scared, which is also weird because like, Sean McVeigh could probably still win nine games and get them in the playoffs with Jimmy Garapolo, right? But it's just like, that's not what we're talking about. We're not talking about squeaking in. We're talking about like, can you get it done? And so I start to think about like, what is the percentage chance that we actually get the best out of all these guys when I still have a lot of questions about the secondary.

I still have a lot of questions at linebacker. and then all your best players on offense outside of Puka are already dealing with health stuff or are like 30 some odd years old and are probably on the back half of their career now. And Puka's always dealing with health stuff. And Pucka's always got something at some point. It's a constant part of his life because of the way he plays.

I'm with you in that the best version of the Rams absolutely deserves mention in a list like this. And Derek, the case you just made about, well, they were mediocre for most of the year and then they get to the playoffs and there are a couple plays away from the Super Bowl. we're already talking about a pretty tough needle that you have to thread before we start discussing the back status of a 37 year old quarterback we don't have to do this if we get into week six

and he's fully healthy in their role and we can revisit this but the fact that he's in the airstream right now working on his back and it's august 12th no one is making us put them in here we don't have to i'm out yeah i'm willing to revisit it a month into the season but i'm out If we recorded this pre-airstream, I would have them in. But now that we're there, I legitimately might also keep them out. I crossed them off initially and I probably would keep them out. I held off as long as I could being worried. But yeah, the airstream thing really threw me for a loop, man.

And I like Robert's reasoning. Like, again, the whole point of this exercise is that we can change our minds. But for who, for what? Like, why am I stressing myself out about all of this stuff that has to go right? And by the way, I know they dug out of it two years in a row, but this stuff has reared its head two years in a row. Like they, I mean, they were, they looked hopeless early in the season in the last two years. And in 2022, they didn't dig out of it. So it's not like we don't have basis for these fears, right?

Like they've had to overcome a lot of shit just to be a playoff team recently. So if they do it again, I don't think anybody will be surprised and I'm happy to revisit it, but I can't. I can't put them on a list like this right now. It's going to be hard to prune this thing. It's going to be hard to keep a bunch of teams off this list. The 37-year-old quarterback has a back problem and had a setback in early August and still hasn't practiced. Feels like a good enough reason for me to keep them off the list.

That's a good reason, yeah. All right, let's keep rolling through these here. Again, we're just kind of going through Super Bowl odds. And I feel like that's the general scope of how we're going through the list. So don't be mad at me for which teams come before others. speaking of we already alluded to this conversation a little bit earlier I'm in Green Bay right now

let's let's talk about the Green Bay Packers Dave I'll start with you because I feel like starting with Derek is like a cheap one Yeah yeah I'm going to say you don't want to start the table You don't want to start with Derek I appreciated what you said a few minutes ago Robert about the Packers being like this theoretical team

Schrodinger's team And I've been trying I've been thinking about that a lot And I came down on the idea that the Packers are like the prototype for what you want a modern NFL team to look like. Like if you were just, if your team was starting over from scratch, and I'm not talking about the specific personnel on the Packers, but just the way that they've built this team is really, really fun, right? Like you got the young, athletic, rocket arm quarterback, 83rd percentile in his relative athletic score. He's aggressive as hell. like Jordan Love is like he's the type of quarterback you want to watch play.

Like if you remove what team he plays for, he's just a fun guy to watch. He's he's Josh Allen-esque even if they don't have a similar playing style. The offensive line in Green Bay is always good. They got a stable of pass catchers that they have invested a lot of capital in. Like all these guys are top 100, whatever. Wix was a fifth round pick, but everybody else was a big pick. And then they just load the defense up with first and second round talents. Like on paper, it all looks so, so awesome. And the pushback on that is we're in

what, year three of waiting for it to catch fire. And it hasn't quite happened yet. And those of us that like the Packers are waiting on it. And those of us that are tired of hearing about the Packers are probably sick of it by now. I still come down on the side of like eventually, I think this is going to catch fire. And so I might not be as high on them as Derek is, but I did, I ultimately put them on my list. And I feel pretty good about it. Like I don't, I don't have a ton of questions about Green Bay other than why hasn't it been better yet. And maybe, maybe some of that is injury, right? Like, maybe that's not all on the Packers, but I don't have a problem signing up for another go-round. I'm trying to decide about how deep into this I want to get and whether or not I want to go over.

all the points we talked about on the half-baked take show or whether or not I just want to skip all of that. Because, again, that was a half-baked thought about what I believe is the new clear potential of the Packers. Because it's there. Like, it is there. Of course it's there. If, like, all of these half steps get taken by all of these young players,

that version of the Packers, I can see it, right? Like, I can understand and believe that it happened. If you told me, if we fast forwarded in, like, somebody from the future came here and was like, hey, it's Thanksgiving, the Packers are the best team in the NFL. I wouldn't be like, fuck you. I'd be like, I can understand how that happened.

But at the same time, I think Dave talking about the collective frustration from mostly, I think fans of other NFC North teams being like, you guys are doing what's with the Packers again. I also get that side of it. And so there are two wolves inside of me right now. There's the wolf that believes in the Packers potential and the fact that this is the year where it all takes a step. and there's like the shattering of everyone being like, you're a moron.

Why are you taking the cheese again with this team? And I'm trying to figure out where I fall between those two things. No, here's my argument. First of all, I think I'm going to keep you short and sweet. I think you're out of your mind if you were to keep the Packers off of this list. My argument is even if they didn't take any of those steps, they were so obviously a top 10 team in the league last year. Like, it's like, I don't even think it's a debate to me.

And that doesn't mean that you have to say that they were like the third best team and that they would win the Super Bowl. But they were so obviously a top 10 team last year. And if Jordan Loves, growing doesn't hurt for the first nine weeks of the season. Like I just, to me, this feels like I get why we all want them to be the 15 win lions type of team. But I don't think we should let like impatience guard us from being like they absolutely deserve a seat at the table for this exercise. I think you're right. I think you're right. I think my like self-reflection about not wanting to accelerate the timeline too fast

has probably caused me to react too hard the other way over the last couple weeks. This is the team that won 11 games two years in a row, right? I mean, like, it's not as if they were. But we can't keep doing this. We can't keep being like, oh, they're so young, it's eventually going to happen. We keep doing this. And I'm trying not to do that again. In terms of trying to like throw them over the Ravens and Bills and stuff like that,

I think that's fine. But again, in terms of understanding like that the seal or that the floor for this team is really, really high, I do think that that still matters. Yeah, I think you're right about that. Let me, let me ask you all this. Because like we've talked so much about the potential. I don't think anybody needs that rehashed for them too much. But what would get in the Packers way other than obviously injury?

But like what would get in the Packers way of being the idealized version that we daydream about? I think what Derek is saying is exactly right. I think the floor, if they stay healthy, is very high. I think this is all about whatever the ceiling looks like. And that's probably a good reason they deserve a spot on this in an exercise like this. What would get in the Packers way, as I understand that question is, what would prevent them from being like the best version of themselves? And I think that's we get to January.

And they're a team full of B-B-plus players that doesn't have true difference makers in the most important games of the season. And I think that probably starts with the quarterback. If the quarterback is the same guy, and I know he was hurt last year, but if no matter what factors were in play, if the outcome for Jordan Love in 2025 is similar to the outcome we got in 2024, and none of the other guys elevate into truly elite players,

they're probably not good enough to break through. Like, they probably fall short of the goals organizationally they have for this year. But even if that happens, they still are probably one of the 10 best teams in the league. which I think goes exactly thank you I think that goes back to my point of like why it's easy to fall in love with the Packers is like it's just easy to assume that this collection of top 100 draft picks is going to grow and improve and Edron Cooper is going to be a better player this year than he was last year and I haven't given up on Quay Walker or like whoever it is that they drafted highly

that guy could be better and some some of that has happened probably not enough and like they need it to like they need those steps to be taken by some of these guys that's the third year in a row we're saying it but but maybe maybe this is the year hope springs eternal they had top 10 units on both sides of the ball last year like if they're the exact same team they were last year they're they still deserve to be on this list of the 10 best teams in the league and i think that's why i'm tempted to just throw them on and then we can discuss the ceiling and what will either get them there or prevent them from getting there over the next month as we get toward the season and talk about all these teams individually.

I don't think we have to decide that today. Exactly. Like, again, maybe they never take the step into the Baltimore, you know, Buffalo, Philly tier. But, like, it's, I don't see how you could put 10 teams over them. That's my argument. Derek, I have, I don't even know if I'm going to say any of it on the podcast. I have so many things to tell you that are going to just put you over the top with, like,

stuff I saw today. Like, I almost, I almost hesitate to tell you about, like, what Tucker craft looked like today at practice and just like, I'm not even going to do it. I'm not even going to do it. Like no one benefits from me divulging any of this to you. Okay. So we can all agree. Even if the ceiling is still mildly in question, we think the Packers deserve a seat at the table. Firmly. Yes. I'm not thinking that hard about it. Okay. So we have eight teams now. We have the five consensus ones we talked about, the Niners, the Niners, the Bengals and the Packers. The Rams crossed off, Washington, TBD.

Washington, we will revisit as we move through some of the rest of these teams. All right, before we get to the rest of this list, we are going to take one more quick break. All right, these are going to be interesting as we've moved through us. So we have one, two, three, four, five more teams that we're going to talk about here. Okay. Let's move on to the Los Angeles Chargers. And I include them here because I kind of think this is an easy cross-off for me.

I don't know how you guys feel about it. When you look at over-unders, they're at nine and a half with a lot of these other teams. They're at 25 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, which is just one step down from where the Rams and the Packers are. But there's enough of a question here about high-end talent and with them missing Rashons later for the entire season where I don't know. It's kind of like the Stafford thing to me where I already had questions and now we're going to lose a Pro Bowl borderline all pro-pro left tackle from the start.

And we're already wondering how many Blue Chip players this team? team has that I think there are no for me Dave. I don't know if that's a little bit too harsh, but that's kind of where I sit right now. I think this is a good place to state again for the record. We're not talking about making the playoffs, right? Like I can imagine a world where the chargers are a playoff team. That's not a big stretch. But if we're talking about the Super Bowl, about making a run through the playoffs and the types of teams you have to be to get to the Super Bowl, I can't do it, man. And a big part of it, honestly, for me is Rishon Slater, Because I think the version of the chargers that makes that leap is supercharged by their

offensive line. Omari and Hampton is running behind two all pro-calibur tackles or at least pro-ball caliber tackles. Mackay Beckton looks great and juices the interior of the line. The play action comes together. The run game is hellish. And it buys Justin Herbert time to just not have to do everything himself. and that is already, that's already messed up.

Like, not to say that their offensive line can't be useful. Joe Alt played left tackle in college. So, like, I'm not throwing the chargers on the scrap heap. But if the A plus version of this team has already taken a hit in August, it's tough for me. And they didn't do enough with the pass catchers for my taste in the offseason. The defense certainly isn't bad, but did they upgrade it? I don't really think so. you look at the division that they play in where I don't want to speak for y'all,

but I just go ahead and assume that they're not going to win the AFC West. It's tough for me. There's a lot working against it. And for that reason, I'm with you and I'm out. The best case scenario for them is just not good enough. It's just not good enough. Like the worst case scenario, I think, is better than most teams in the league. Because like I just, Harbaugh is a great coach.

I think the defense is really well coached. Herbert is Herbert. I just, they don't have the firepower. And some of that is the, offense, right? Like, I think obviously losing Slater, that hurts them a lot. We saw what their past rush unit can already, or their past protection unit can already look like against Houston in last year's playoffs. And that was with those guys healthy. So I think you have that aspect of it. The past catching core, unless Trey Harris is the best rookie receiver in the league,

is not going to be any better than it was last year. Oh, you don't believe in Keandre Lambert Smith. That's your mistake here. Maybe. If he can be, if either, there, I'll give it to them. If either of the rookies can be the best receiver in the league, then that's fine. And I really love O'Marian Hampton, but yeah, if he's not going to be running behind a top six left tackle anymore, then I start to get a little bit scared about that. And then defensively, Robert, we talked about this earlier in the offseason. It's a really well-coached defense and they have some solid players. They got fried by the best quarterbacks that they played last year. Like, they gave up 40 to Baker Mayfield. In the playoff game, C.J. Stroud fried them. Lamar Jackson put up 30 on them.

Joe Burrow put up 27 in that game where it was just bombs away for a lot of that game. I just, and I know, again, some of that was some of the injuries they were. we're dealing with later on. But like the reality is most teams are going to get injured. And if you don't have the star power to help make up for it, I just get a little bit worried. So this is a team that I feel pretty confident will like be in the wild card or in the graphic on the last week of the season. It's just hard to imagine them lifting the trophy at the end.

I think questioning the ceiling is totally valid. And here's why I don't even feel bad leaving them off of this. The way they approached this offseason, I don't think they think that they're a Super Bowl team. now. Right. I mean, they're going at this in a very methodical way. Like, how they're slow playing this and essentially saying, we're going to be a draft and developed team. That's where we're going to find, where we're going to find our stars. Okay. That's a completely reasonable approach, but those stars have not emerged yet. We did a study, I think it was two summers ago, me and Nate, just as an offseason idea of like, what are the component parts you need to win a Super Bowl? Like how many blue chip players

do you need? And I want to say we landed on like between five and six. And that's like true blue chip guys. I don't think the charges. All pro level talent. All pro level players. The Chargers don't have that, right? Like, Slad McConkey, maybe if Joe Walt takes a step. And then on defense, it's Khalil Mack. You know, but other than that, like maybe Derwin James,

maybe Deion Henley takes a step. And then the quarterback is very good. But I just think there's too much necessary development from in-house players. And it's projection for them. Like, the Packers, we've seen them be a top six offense each of the last two years. The Chargers, we have not seen that. There's enough inconsistency and holes and questions about the run game and the offensive line where I just think that there's way too much ground to make up for to include them in something like this compared to the other teams that we're going to talk about. Even if we think the floor is high, the ceiling is limited enough where cross enough.

And again, especially I think I would call Rashon Slater a blue chip player and you don't have him. That's kind of what I mean. You're making one of them off. Yeah. No, I don't love it. next one here let's stick in the a fc west this one's going to be a tough one denver broncos d'n brancos d'nter do the denver brancos deserve a seat at the table in your mind so derrick and i talked about denver a couple weeks ago and where i come down with them is i adore the long-term outlook for this team like over the next

two three years i'm buying all the stock i can like i'm trying to get the broncos cheap so i can sell high in three years for all of the cliche reasons. Like, I mean, you got a good young quarterback who is four or five years away from costing you a lot of money. They've already done some good business this offseason, by the way, like not just Cortland Sutton, but Zach Allen, too. Like, you got two of your bigger players on both sides of the ball locked in for the long term.

Nick Benito is really the only free agent of consequence that you have to worry about next year. And they've got plenty of cap space. So this is a team that's already in a good spot and can really start cooking with gas here over the next couple of years. In 2025, I don't think that they have the juice to win the Super Bowl. Again, not talking about making the playoffs, not talking about winning 10 games, but to get through, especially in the AFC, where we can already assume that you will have to play a game against Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes or potentially multiple. of those guys. I don't see it. I'm not blaming them because I love when teams approach these things responsibly. But if Evan Ingram and potentially R.J. Harvey are your biggest investments on the

offensive side of the ball, an offense that you're probably already not super excited about the skill talent. We know the offensive line is good, but the weapons, I can't get there. And same thing I said about the Chargers. I'm just going to assume that the best case scenario for you as the Denver Broncos is the five seat in the AFC. So you're probably not playing a home game the entire trip through the playoffs. I don't love it. I like this team a lot in the big picture. Right now, I don't see how they navigate an entire playoff field.

But you tell me if I'm wrong. All the teams that we've included so far, all of them. And I don't think, I want to be careful here because I don't think this is like the barometer that we should use for quarterbacks, but I think it's worth mentioning here. all of the teams that we've included so far here, the quarterbacks on those teams have won playoff games. All of them. And I think you've shown, like, have played well enough in the postseason to be like,

oh, yeah, I could see this guy playing in and winning a Super Bowl. Jordan Love, I think, is probably the diciest among all of those. Because I think pretty we've seen play in the Super Bowl. But Jordan Love, like, we saw Jordan Love destroy the Cowboys in the playoffs. Like, even if we're slightly concerned about his ceiling as a player, where he belongs to the hierarchy, all of that, I feel confident saying he can play well enough against the best teams in the league for you to win a playoff game. We haven't really gotten that from Bo Nix yet.

And I don't think that quarterback wins in the playoffs should dictate how we talk about teams. But when you're playing against the best competition, when things are imperfect for you, when you're having to play while pressured, when you're having to be a playmaker, when you're having to play in mucky pockets, what do you look like in the biggest moments of the season? We're not there yet with Bo Nix. even if we believe he can get there and even if we believe he showed a lot last year, it's still a big enough question mark for me to hold them off of something like this, especially when you compare them to all the teams

that we just talked about, and even a team like Washington where we've seen it with Jaden Daniels. I think for the most part, I agree. So if you guys are, are one to cross them off, I think that's fine. They were a team that I wanted to hold off at least until the end.

And here's, I'll try to make the optimistic case. I understand that this is an offense-driven league and I have a lot of questions about whether the offense can take a step. I'm probably not as high on Bo Nix's other people and I don't think they added like that much firepower unless you really think Evan Ingram is that much of a difference maker. And the truthfully, the offensive line probably won't be as healthy as it was last year. Not because I think they're, it's just by law of averages, they probably won't.

My case for them is like if I think there's a chance they can be the best defense in the league. And there absolutely is. And they're at like they absolutely could be the best defense. They might have the best defensive player in the league. I mean, he literally won the award last year. That at least makes me be like, okay, I don't know if I can firmly put you in, but I at least want to like hold a small candle lit for them because I do think that that matters a lot.

It matters a huge. It matters a ton. And I think here's why for me, it's a little bit hesitant when it comes to a defense first team throwing them in an exercise like this. I think if I was thinking about this the other day, like what sort of terms I would want to put this in when discussing defenses headed into the season. And the Broncos are a team that came to mind. The Seahawks are a defense that came to mind.

The way that I would frame this is, I think this team has as good a chance as any to be the best defense in the league. But that's as far as I'm willing to go with it. Like predicting how good defenses are going to be is so, so hard. Unless they are like the best defense in the league or the second best defense in the league, I still have enough questions about the offensive ceiling that I don't know in totality if it's enough in an exercise like this. Like if they're the fourth best defense in football, if they're just really good, I still think I have enough questions about the offensive

ceiling where it holds me back a little bit compared to the offense first teams that we've talked about so far and might talk about again. I probably do agree. But again, if you can have at least one thing that you can hang your hat on and I'm like confident you can win a game that way, it at least gives you something. But again, it's that's why that even if I ranked them, one to 10, they'd probably be like 10th. Who's the last defense first team that won a Super Bowl without overwhelming offensive talent? Right?

Like the last year's Eagles were a defense first team. If you look at it, they were the best defense in football. Their offense was outside of the top 10 for most of the season. But at the end of it, when you get into the playoffs, they still had the best offensive line in football, AJ Brown, Devante Smith, and Saquan Barkley. Like, I just think as a defense first team, it's just harder at this point.

because when you get to the playoffs, you were going to play the best. Think about the AFC. Think about what the AFC route to the Super Bowl is going to look like. Last year, you're going to play the Bills in the wildcard round. You're going to play Baltimore in the divisional round. And you're going to play Patrick Mahomes in the AFC championship game. If your defense is what's driving that, I just think it's really, really hard to do that three times in a row. And I think the offense could get there, but we just haven't seen it yet.

That's the point I wanted to make is like, even in this day and age, even the best defenses in the NFL, like if you're going to put together a four-game win streak in the playoffs, you're probably going to have, unless you are a truly generational type of defense. I mean, ironically, maybe the, you know, the no-fly zone Broncos in 2015 were a defense like this, you're going to have a game where your offense needs to score 25 or 26 points.

I mean, you see that pretty reliably. I mean, the chiefs a couple years ago needed 27 to beat the bills in the divisional round. The 49ers, great as those defenses have been, needed 34 points to beat the Lions a couple years ago. Like, I don't think it's realistic in the modern NFL to think you're going to shut down three or four different opponents. And that's where I look at the offensive talent. And I'm like, who's making those plays for you if you need them? Who's making your Brandon Ayuk ladybug catch to dig you out of a hole? You need that stuff. And I just, I don't see it with the Broncos this

year on that side of the ball, no matter how good their defense is. And, and, and, you know, know what? I'm fine letting the tiebreaker for this for me personally to just cross them off. If they were in the NFC, I think it would actually be easier to make the argument that if you're the best defense, totally, that that can ride you through. But chances are, like you guys are saying, you're probably going to have to play two of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. It's hard to put down two of those guys with just the defense. And listen, maybe the offense takes the step where we get to October and it's like, listen, the offense is good enough to keep up its end of the bargain, we should revisit this, but I just, we haven't

seen it yet. Like, the offense was better than we expected last year. It was still a middle of the road to slightly below average offense. Like, it's okay to not be fully bought in on that. This isn't a Packer situation where it's people talk about it being unrealized. The Packers have been definitively very good on that side of the ball for a while. The Broncos, there's just, to me, still way much, way too much projection to throw them into something like this. All right. Next one here. The Tampa Bay, Bucket, Buccaneers. Derek, do you believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve a seat at the table?

Easy no for me. Like, they were one of my first ones. Easy. Easy. Easy. No. Easy. They were one of the first ones I crossed off. I just, I think the offense feels more flimsy to me than I wanted it to just because

of how old some of the receivers are. And again, best case scenario, if you tell, like, this offense could score 35 points a game and that's fine. I just, I think I struggle a little bit with like, can Baker Mayfield, really win you enough playoff games. The Tristan worst thing scares me a little bit, and I know that he'll come back, but if there's a chance that he's not 100% for the entire year, I think that really throws a wrench in it. And then, like, I still generally by the direction of this team, because I think Baker's a fine

quarterback. I like, you know, drafting a mechaigbuka. I think they have some other decent young players on both sides of the ball, but mostly offense. But like, when you're going through the offensive coordinator change, your best player on offense might not play for the early parts of the season. And then the defense is a lot of like, I know they threw a lot of draft picks at it and signed Hassan Reddick,

but that's a lot of prove it to me, man. And they also barely won this division last year over a hobbled Kurt Cousins. Like, I just, I don't know. This to me is, I think they were kind of fortunate to win 10 games last year, and I don't feel that much strongly about them this year, like that much better. Dave, I'm curious where you land on this. The way we talk about a team that's won its division four years in a row every year, year is wild.

They've won that division. Dang. You play the cards you're dealt, Derek. I get it. But hey, also, circumstance matters in these conversations. And the Bucks have an easier road to a home playoff game and potentially a lot more

than many other teams by virtue of playing in the NFC South. Maybe the Falcons can take it from them. I'm not saying it'll be a cakewalk. But, like, objectively, this is an easier division to win than many, many other ones. So I think that's a feather in their cap right off the bat. I actually am glad that you think about that stuff more than I do, because I just straight

up going like, do I think this team is good enough? And I just don't think the bucks are good enough. But if they can get, I don't know, the third or fourth seed, you get a couple of home games, like then maybe. But I just, that part of it, it's, I means a little bit less to me, I guess. Here's where I came down on this. And the bucks were my first team off. I don't have them on my list. but it basically came down to this is I like so much about Tampa Bay, man. Like, it should be one of the league's best offensive lines. For the purposes of this, I'm hoping and praying Tristan Worf's will be available and will be good. He plays 12 games in the games that matters.

Then it's going to be okay. Exactly. Right. And on top of that, again, trying not to fall too much for training camp cheese, but when Todd Bowles, who is like one of the softest spoken, most boring head coaches in the NFL. And I know Todd. I've met Todd. Love you, Todd.

I feel like I can say that. You don't typically give great quotes. He's talking about Emeka Buka potentially being a wide receiver one in a lot of other offenses. Like that carries weight to me. So now I'm saying, okay. They're fitting in for the gold jacket already, man. That's what I'm saying, man. Like the talk coming out of Tampa about this guy is amazing.

So all of a sudden, I'm a lot. less worried about Chris Godwin not being all the way healthy. And so you've got the offensive line. I love Baker Mayfield. You've got great weapons in Tampa. I think the biggest question for me is can Tampa maintain that level on offense? Because they were top five under Liam Cohen. They have to maintain that in addition to being much better on defense because they were middle of the pack in basically all of the metrics. That's not terrible. But when Todd Bowles is your head coach, you're supposed to be able to hang your hat on a lot more than that. That obviously means Reddick's got to be a really good addition. So many of the guys on the back end have to hit.

You're right about that, Derek. Like, it is stuff that has to happen. But I trust the personnel on offense. And I trust Todd Bowles to put together a nice defense. And when you combine that with the NFC South being where they're playing and what they have to win, I just think that's a really great starting point. Ultimately, I opted for Washington over Tampa because I think that highly of Jaden Daniels, but it was a very tough decision for me. I really don't know what I want to do. I really don't know. We can set them off to the side. That's fine with me. Let's talk through this. Okay. I think some of my concerns about the Bucks are similar to some of my concerns about the Lions offense, where we had this unit where it was just so incredibly locked in. The, but,

we saw that we realized the best version of it schematically over the last couple of years. You swap out the offensive coordinator, what does that look like? I think it's fair to project some regression for each of those teams offensively. And for the Lions, that might mean going from the second best offense in the league to the eighth best offense. For the Bucks, maybe that means going from the fifth best offense to the 11th. One of the reasons I feel comfortable just putting the Lions in here is that I think the lion's defense is more than capable, even with a new coordinator, the talent on that side of

ball to me is more than capable of making up the difference if the offense slides. For Tampa, it's harder to tell myself that story because there's so much uncertainty on that side of the ball. So the 23rd ranked defense in the league last year by defensive DVOA, there is a path for them to be really good if the rookies hit, but we have absolutely no idea if that's ultimately going to happen. I think in the NFC, Dave, there is enough of a path. and I think outside of Philly

who have their own potential issues, right? Lana Dickerson's now hurt. We already are swapping out a right guard. They're swapping out pieces on defense. I don't think the Eagles are going to be the team this season that they were by the end of last season. I think it's going to be a small step back.

I think there's a window of opportunity for another team to emerge in the NFC. And I'm open to the idea that the Bucks can be that. If worse come back healthy, if Grisard is 90% of what Liam Cohen was, if the young pieces on defense hit. but there is enough uncertainty there that I think I just want to wait and see and we can revisit

the Bucks conversation six weeks into the season. Yeah, I mean, I think that's ultimately where I came down as well. Like I said, it was between them and Washington for me. And it's basically, it's so many more ifs for Tampa Bay, right? Like if their play caller is good. If Tristan Wharf's is healthy. If the receipt, you know, if Mike Evans doesn't fall off a cliff, not that I expect him to, if the young players on defense hit,

if Hassan Reddick can recapture some of his old form, then this could be a really special team. It's way less scary to just say, well, if Jaden Daniels is the man, then Washington will be really good. Like, it's just a, it's a less terrifying proposition for me as opposed to hoping that three to five things go right for Tampa Bay.

So that's ultimately why I left them out, but I'm still, I'm very bullish on the bucks, and I won't be surprised if I'm chomping at the bit to revisit this conversation six weeks into the season. That's kind of how I feel too. And I was actually, I was ready to be more excited about them than I ended up being. I just think there's enough to hold me back.

And these spots are tight enough that I just can't get all the way there. Okay. So we have, we have two spots left, correct? Still? Like fully open? I think so. Because we put two spots left. Okay.

So we have Washington on the back burner now. So does that mean, according to, into your guys' list that the last team that we're going to talk about, do you both have them in? That's the Minnesota Vikings. Nope. You're forgetting one very important team, Robert. Who am I forgetting here?

We talked about this. I told you I was going to bring another team to the mix. Okay, so now was the time to do it because if you're not bringing another team to the mix, then Washington and the Vikings are in. Then Washington does just get in. Okay. I have questioned their offseason a little bit. I have been a little bit down on this team, but at the very least, I, I,

I think you have to bring up Houston in this conversation. Do you, though? I kind of think so. I think so. I absolutely think so. And I'm glad you're doubting me, Robert, because look, I don't like the offensive line. You're changing offensive play callers. Joe Mixon hasn't had a training camp and his backup is year nine Nick Chubb.

Like, I understand it. I get it. But at the end of the day, you have what I think is a. Blue Chip quarterback and arguably the best defense in the NFL. And that carries a shitload of weight. Like, again, we're having the same debate as the Broncos, except I like C.J. Stroud, a hell of a lot more than I like Bo Nix. And we've seen him do it.

Like, we've seen him do it in the playoffs multiple times over. My other point would be. Wait, wait, wait, wait. We've seen him do what? They, he had that incredible game against the Browns. Like, yeah, that incredible. Okay. Is it just that game against the Browns?

I thought he played well against the Chargers, and I thought he played well against the Chiefs. His team let him down so unbelievably badly in that game. But on an individual level, he played well in that game. And so we can make the argument that the rest of the offense around him is not going to be any better, and we're going to end up in the same spot. But if I'm just going, you know, best defense plus X at quarterback, I feel a lot better about Houston than Denver,

even if the rest of the Denver offense I feel better about part of it. I get it. I get it. I want to point this out. It's not just that. Okay, Robert, you talked about blue chip and how blue chip players and how many you need. I'm ready to say, okay, the Texans have a blue chip player at quarterback, in my opinion. I think it's fair to call Nico Collins a blue chip receiver. Definitely.

You have, you have Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter at edge rusher and you have Derek Stingley. You have hosses at four of the five premium positions in football. obviously offensive tackle is a huge whiff and that is why we are all terrified about the Houston Texans. But that is a pretty good place to start, man. And I'll point it out one more time. They don't play in that strong of a division. I mean, we can talk about the merits of all those other teams, but they should have a leg up. If they are good, it is an easier division to win than a lot of other ones.

So I just, I think you got to, we got to at least talk about them. We can't just blow past it. I think you're right. I probably should have been more enthusiastic about including them here. Before we do this, the Vikings are our last team. As we narrow all of this down and you realize who's left, do we feel okay about putting Washington in and having it be between the Texans and the Vikings for the last one? Or you guys not want to do that?

I think I like Washington and Houston more than I like Minnesota. So, yes. I'm good with Washington. I'm good with Washington. being in for sure. Okay. So this comes down to Minnesota or Houston. Mm-hmm. This is a fascinating comparison. You just mentioned, I'm just imagining the depth charts in my head, okay? And I'm just imagining like what's green and what's red on the 11 spots.

In Houston, there are two greens on offense. It's the quarterback at Nico Collins. I understand those are blue chip players. This is true, okay? I went to Texans camp five days ago. there are no set starters on the offensive line. Zero. Not even tied to that way? Or is he just like a position thing? He was at right tackle the day I was there. Okay, that's interesting.

They don't know who's going to start. This is not a problem in their minds. They're using this time to experiment. But it was August 7th. Okay. So that's how unsettled that offensive line is. I think with better protection rules and more sound offense,

we could get acceptable offensive line play from them. But oh boy, is that a question mark at this point? And as much as I want to believe in the quarterback and I do, I still think there's enough uncertainty with every other aspect of that offense and a new offensive coordinator who I'm bullish on, but is still a new offensive coordinator. In Minnesota, it's the exact opposite.

If you flash up the 11, there are 10 green ones and then one red one. So I guess that's the question. If we think both of these defenses are top three-ish defenses, top four-ish defenses, again, the framing of this team has as good a chance as any to be the best defense in the league, I think Minnesota and Houston probably both deserve mention in that conversation. So then the question becomes, is one quarterback you feel good about and no other guys except for one receiver? If two guys you feel good about are they more important than 10 starters you feel good about, a question mark a quarterback and a play caller we've seen do it before? I hate that. In January?

Yes. In January, yes. Like, I kind of trust, I'm sure they both have the capacity to get to the playoffs. That's fine. But like, I've seen CJ Stroud play really, really well in January. And I think, to me, I think the other thing is I think the ceiling and the likelihood that this Texan's defense is like a top five unit is higher to me than Minnesota's. I've talked about how I feel pretty icky about their secondary. And so that's what a lot of it boils down to me.

I just can't in good conscience call a team with a quarterback that's never played a Super Bowl contender. Even everything you just said is right. And like we've seen Kevin O'Connell do it. We've seen, I know, you know, he came in halfway through the season. So it's a little bit different. But I mean, we saw the Niners do this with Brock Purdy to a degree. It's certainly possible. But winning the Super Bowl, we've never seen that with like a first year starter.

I like C.J. Stroud. I like CJ Stroud, but we're really going to do this. After last year, we're just going to say C.J. Stroud, with all other question marks on offense, is good enough for this team to win a Super Bowl right now. You guys are willing to say that. I just want to stay for the record. The other team we're talking about, yes. The Texans, with everything that went wrong for Houston last year,

they won their division, won a playoff game, and gave the Chiefs a game. Obviously, they lost, but, like, they didn't get wiped off the field. Let me repurpose what Derek just saying. They won that division. They did. Hey, like I said, you play the cards you're dealt, man. If you win that division, you still get a home playoff game, which by just that puts you in pole position to reach the divisional round at least.

This stuff matters. I understand that we've never seen J.J. McCarthy play. We had never seen Sam Darnold play well. And they won 14 games. And the offensive line is better. You guys understand. I don't know, man. But how many times last year did I say that, like, even though the Vikings won that many games,

I don't trust them when it's going to matter. And it, they fell apart when it matters. But are you going to trust the Texas offensive line when it matters? I don't feel good about it, but I would at least rather have the percentage chance that I've know I've seen CJ Stroud do some stuff. I also want to be clear, the top eight teams on my list, those are my like, I would put money on them to go do it. These last two teams are just like.

Derek's like, I'm sorry, buddy, this is a team exercise to these teams. Yeah, yeah, sorry. Then I'd rather have CJ Stroud if it comes down to it. Sorry. Who's going to piss you off? What's going to piss you off more? What is going to piss you off more?

Watching CJ Stroud try to navigate a very unideal situation or watching the ups and downs of a first year starter on a loaded offense. I don't know the answer to that. Neither one sounds fun if you've got pride writing on it. At least the second one is interesting because there's an element of we don't know what we're going to get. I've been frustrated already by C.J. Stroud behind those types of offensive lines. But I just, there's a part of me that, again, I just, I want to see it with J. Jim. And I will say, if they're the first team by like week three where I'm ringing the bell and we're like, okay, let's put the Vikings in, I could totally see that where they're the first team I want to reinsert back into the list.

But if we're working with this as a starting point of a living document, I would rather. have Domeco Ryan's and C.J. Stroud, yes. Derek, do you trust Jaylen Hertz in the biggest moments of the season? Here's where I'm going with this. And I don't know. No, but that's it. Okay. Finish, if I didn't.

Finish your thought. Even if I hadn't, I have already seen Jalen Hertz be dragged towards the Super Bowl already. I haven't seen that from J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. I just think, and here's why I framed it this way. even if you have questions about the quarterback. And because what you were about to say is the rest of the team is so good that you feel good about them being able to get there.

Can't we do that with the Vikings? It isn't the rest of the team potentially so good that even with a question of quarterback, you can still do this. I cannot in good conscience put a team on there where I know who none of the starters on the offensive line are in the position they will play with the first year offensive coordinator,

Christian Kirk and another rookie receiver with Nick Chubb playing running back. I can't do it as much as I love C.J. Stroud. Do you guys understand that? I absolutely understand that, but I think in both of these cases, you have to bet on something that has no proof of concept yet.

I'm leaning to, it's a matter of which proof of concept are you a little bit more willing to take the risk on. I just feel like Robert is deeply hurt by how South things went for the Texans last year. That's exactly right. Who is it?

I am I am, I am, dramatically overcorrecting from where I was at with C.J. Stroud last year. Do I still believe that C.J. Stroud is going to be very good. And does in my heart, do I want to like wholeheartedly agree with you guys? Absolutely. I just can't do it. So am I just going to lose here? Like, is it two to one where you guys are both picking the Texans over the Vikings? Because I, I just don't understand how you guys can look yourselves in the mirror and feel good about that. I think we all agree. nobody feels good about anything that's happening here. But ultimately, and it's not just a quarterback game,

but the known commodity who I believe to be excellent at quarterback, combined with that defense, combined with, again, I'm the one that keeps bringing this up. But like, hey, the Texans have to win the AFC South and the Vikings would like to win the NFC North to get the home playoff game and the home field advantage and all that good stuff. have fun in that division, guys.

I would way rather try to win the AFC South. So yes, I hate myself, but I'm rocking with Houston here. I feel so fucking gross about this. Honestly, the division is enough of a tiebreaker for me just to say, fine, we'll put the Texans on. I can't put people are going to be furious about this. Oh, absolutely. Furious about this.

Putting the Texans in over a team that just won 14 games with a first round quarterback. They're going to be mad. but what i want it firmly on record about how against this i am okay that that that team didn't this team didn't win 14 games that team it's a different team if j j mccarthy comes out the other players are better yeah that was if j j mccarthy looks amazing i i like the vikings i will have no problem changing this quickly i don't think it's crazy to want to see proof of concept i think it's insane to just say, screw it. The quarterback doesn't matter.

I know, like, that's taking it too far for me. To say there is a Super Bowl contender with a guy who's never appeared in the regular season is a bridge too far. So you want to see proof of concept. And that's why you're putting in the offense where we know who three of the players are in the first year play caller is involved. My proof of concept is that C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins kick ass.

That part I'm confident in. I'm pumped about them in the two-on-two football league. they're going to fucking crush it. They're going to be great. Listen, when the NFL starts to look like NFL Street to video game, they're going to be incredible. Do you know how much it sucks that I have to be like the anti-CJ Stroud guy now because you guys are pushing this too far the other way?

I can't believe this is the other role that I have to inhabit. But I'm standing in for the listeners. That's what I'm doing. Somebody has to because I was not going to do that. I genuinely love that, and I'm not being facetious at all. Like football is in a place where it's not. not an insane take to think that J.J. McCarthy could take this team to a Super Bowl. Because like 10 years ago, we would never be having this conversation.

But development has gotten good enough. Coaching has gotten good enough. The players have gotten good enough. That is a realistic thing that we're talking about, which is wild. That's why I can't. That's why it's hard for me to pick the Texans in this. Because even with the question about the quarterback, and it's obviously a huge, claring question.

I'm not dismissing or discounting that. but we've seen what situation does for these players. Sam Darnold was gone. He was in the wilderness. I'm swearing the F word about. I'm trying to do it less. He was in the goddamn wilderness, and he threw 40 touchdowns last year.

Okay. Sam Darnold, though, I know he wasn't good, but he played a lot of football between 2018 and 2024. I know. That's a huge difference. I don't even think that J.J. McCarthy has to be as good as Sam Darnold. was last year for the Vikings offense to be better than it was last year. With better offensive linemen, with all those weapons back, I think J.J. McCarthy can be

like a middle of the road NFL quarterback and still have this be one of the best 10 offenses in the league because of everything else that's around him. And I think that is actually more likely than so many aspects of the Texans offense coming together, even if the quarterback is the most important piece. It might be because like you were saying earlier, like defensive driven teams don't necessarily win the Super Bowl that often. I think that is a little bit different than Denver because C.J. Stroud can be that good. It's also, but to me, it's like, let's say he's not quite as good as Sam to Arnold. And maybe in theory, the offense is better.

How often does the 23rd best quarterback in the league win a Super Bowl? I guess just that to me is where I get a little bit like, I don't know. Here's the last question I'll ask. I'm willing to concede this. I'm willing to lose. Would you be more surprised on Thanksgiving this deep end of the season? If the Texans or the Vikings said the eighth best offense in football. More surprised that they were that good. Yeah.

I would probably be more surprised that it's the Texans. But I think like ultimately when you get to the postseason, it's like, do I just trust the quarterback for a month? I kind of do. I'm willing to concede this, but I just want you guys to know I just won the argument. I'm willing to give this to you guys, but I just won the argument. Respectfully, no, you didn't. Again, we're not talking. The Eagles were the 15th best offense.

We're not talking about being good. Yeah. It's not about being good. It's about like, what do I feel like the best month of play can look like? All right. I'm willing to back down.

I'm willing to back down. Okay. So the Texans are on our list. Jesus Christ. I want to be clear. I went in not having them on the list. And as I went through my exercise again, I was crossing a bunch of teams off.

And I think I felt good about eight teams, which it was the five that we mentioned, and then the Niners, the Bengals, the Packers. And then for the last two, I was kind of just like, I like the quarterback.

And I like one other thing. The speed at which I'm going to run away from this on social media, this is the fastest you'll have ever seen anybody move when when this list gets released here over the next 40, like 24 to 48 hours. It is funny, which I know we need to wrap up, but like, it is funny that we're opting for the Texans over the bucks. Like really, the Vikings doesn't move me. Like I just, I need to see something from the quarterback there. But yeah, I mean, the Bucks have a lot of the same advantages as the Texans without the debilitating questions on offense.

But I think we all like C.J. Stroud more than we like Baker Mayfield. Which I don't even know if we should like him that much more than Baker Maffir. We like the Texan's defense more than we like the Bucs defense. Let's open this up very. Okay, that's fair. That is fair. That Texans defense part, I think, is fair. We don't have time to re-legislate this.

This is done. We, it's you guys, you guys have made your bed with the Texans. You don't get to backtrack now. The dies cast. I don't want to. I'm good. All right. So here are our 10 teams that have a seat at the table at the beginning of the season.

Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Lions, Niners, Bengals, commanders, Packers, Texans. Okay. Nobody said it was going to feel good. That's the point. That's why we did. It should feel better than this. That's why we did, 10. As a reminder.

This is a living, breathing document. We can update this at any time. And when any show, any moment, somebody gets to raise a hand and make their case for why one team should be in and one team should be out. And we will go through the judgment process on the spot. Any moment. Sunday night, you hit the buzzer. It's on. And so I'm very excited about having those conversations over the course of this season.

I hope you guys enjoyed the absolute mess that this show was. I know I had a good time. I hope you guys did as well. be back with plenty more this week. Slight change in schedule. We are not going to have a show on Thursday this week, just based on travel and things like that and training camps. We're going to have a show on Friday. And again, because of travel, we're going to be pushing our like week one preseason reaction show just so we had a little bit of time to rewatch and talk about some of these guys. We're going to do a first impressions from the preseason show on Friday. So it'll be

before the second slate of preseason games changed. It's just kind of how my travel fell this week. We wanted to talk about those games. We just couldn't fit it in any earlier than that. I'm going to be at the Bears tomorrow. You guys don't care. But we're going to have a preseason week one reaction on Friday. And then we'll be coming back with two B-Writer notebooks later into the weekend. Very excited about that.

And then starting next week, baby, it's division preview time. A week from today, our first division preview will be out. It will be available to you. And then we'll have one a day all the way up to the regular season, one a weekday. So be on the lookout for those. Very excited about digging into those. For now, that's all. we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.