The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Aaron Rodgers, a Jet all the way

Episode Date: April 24, 2023

Welp, it finally happened. Aaron Rodgers is a New York Jet. Robert Mays and Mike Sando break down the deal that sent the future Hall of Famer to the Big Apple, and what it means for the Packers and Jets teams in 2023, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Sando on Twitter: @SandoNFLSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's the Athletic Zone. Mike Sando. Mike, how you doing? I'm doing well.

There's always news. We got a big one today. There certainly is. We are here, obviously, to chat about the Aaron Rogers to the Jets News, recording this at about 5 p.m. Eastern on Monday. It finally happened. Aaron Rogers, 40 days after announcing on Pat McAfee's show that he

intended to play for the Jets is now a member of the New York Jets. Adam Schaefter from ESPN tweeting out the terms. First of all, on the Packers side, they move from 15 to 13 in the first round, so two picks up. They get the 42nd pick in the 2023 draft, pretty high in the second round, and the big one here, a conditional 2024 second round pick that becomes a first round pick if Aaron Rogers plays more than 65% of the snaps. So nothing contingent on whether Aaron Rogers plays for the Jets in 2024.

And obviously the Jets get back the 15th pick in the draft moving down two spots in the first round. Seeing the terms, Mike Sando, your initial thoughts on the big move of the day. Look, how Rogers plays is the number one thing that's going to determine anything in the future, right? But on the top, I think the Packers did okay. When you go back and look at, you know, obviously the Brett Favre trade. I mean, it was a conditional fourth they got. So, I mean, we knew they were going to do better than that.

Rogers has won two of the last three MVPs. I know he had a down year, had some injuries, but he's still a really good player. So, you know, they should get more. But, you know, we wondered how long it would drag before the draft. And I just think just on paper, we'll see about the money and any of that stuff. We don't have maybe all of those details. But it looks pretty, you know, pretty good for a team that had already said, we're moving on from Aaron Rogers, right?

It wasn't like they were going to keep him. Yeah, to get this knowing that he wasn't going to play for you anyway, I think is pretty good. And to have nothing tied to whether or not he plays next year, I think has to feel like a win for the Packers. 65% of the snaps, I think it's 11 games. He can miss six full games and still get there. So you'd have to assume without a major injury, he's going to do that. And the Packers are going to get a high second round pick and a future first round pick for again, a guy that probably wasn't going to play for them. And this is a team that they have their own off ramp.

They got a guy on the roster that they picked in the first round that they want to find out about. So another pick, two more spots in the first round to kind of build up the rest of the roster around Jordan Love. And you move on for Rogers for I think a $40 million dead cap hit this year. And then nothing in 2024, which we can talk about. They've got about $50 million in cap space for next season as things currently stand. Yeah. And you figure if Rogers, let's just say Rogers for some reason does not hit the 65% playtime, right? So now you're the Packers.

You're settling for a two, but probably a high two because. It's probably a bad season, you know, for the Jets. So, you know, I think it's pretty good for really what is a bad situation for the Packers. I think that's the part that is maybe sometimes overlooked because I think people are just tired of Rogers in Green Bay. They're tired of the whole Rogers and Green Bay thing and I get it. In fact, I was talking to one of the beat reporters there today about something else. And, you know, they're done. Everyone's done.

The team's done. So they got out of it. I don't think that's necessarily the best possible outcome when you have a guy who won two MVPs. But it's where it was all headed. So here they are. They got something in return that was substantial. What do we think about this from the Jets perspective? I love it.

I mean, to me, one of the columns I wrote when this was about to, go down, just took a really kind of academic look at what this means for them on the field. And so if you look at the makeup of their team last season, they were pretty elite in the defense special teams component and they were bottom five on offense. And when you have those two things together historically, you miss the playoffs 85% of the time and you win about 40% of your games, which is exactly what the Jets did. Okay. So that's really bad on offense and really good defense special teams. So you look at the past. Packers last year. Bad year, Rogers, is he interested? Is he hurt? They're still middle of the

pack offensively, okay, even though it was a bad year for them. If we say the Jets are not, let's just say they're not going to be top five again, defense special teams, but let's just say they're a top 10. I think that's a safe assumption we could say. If you are a top 10 defense special teams, then you go to middle of the pack on offense. That's Rogers not hitting stride and having an amazing year. That's just middle of the pack. You're seven. 25% playoffs, 10% Super Bowl. Okay. Now, if you hit the upside and your top 10 on offense, the same good defense,

your 95% playoffs, 25% Super Bowl. That's what they're buying. Yeah. And they don't have that ability with anyone else they could get. That's Derek Carr, any of that stuff. So they bought a ceiling. It's not a guaranteed you're going to reach the ceiling, but guess what? It wasn't for the Packers either.

It's not for any of the teams. even Buffalo, great team, Josh Allen. They're not guaranteed, but they have a chance. They could actually do it. So the Jets now could actually do it. They couldn't actually do it before today. So that's what they're buying. When you miss out on the second overall pick in the draft, the solutions and the contingency plans after that are never going to be good. They're never going to come without downside or risk. There's immense risk here. He's 39 years old. He's famously flippant. Who knows how engaged he's going to be? There are so many different questions here, and they're reasonable questions. He's campaigning with RFK Jr., right? I mean, heck, this could go any

number of directions, Robert. I mean, come on. I mean, that's beyond what is going to happen in the New York media and all of that spotlight. There are 10,000 things to worry about. But again, there are no good solutions. And you mentioned Derek Carr's name, Jimmy Garapolo, some of the other kind of stopgap veteran starters who would be available and available for a reason. Are they better in this situation for you than Rogers? Probably not, even if you had to pay a premium. You threw out their bottom five on offense. 39 quarterbacks last season in the NFL had at least 150 pass attempts.

Two of the starters for the Jets, Zach Wilson and Joe Flacko, ranked 36 and 39th in EPA per dropback among those 39 quarterbacks. They were 30th as a team in EPA per dropback. Let's say Rogers is fine, okay? Let's say he's just a pretty good quarterback now that he's a little bit re-engaged and wanting to really show some people after getting to New York. Let's say you're a middle of the road offense. Even that with a slight slip on defense is a much better outcome than where you were before.

And I think pretty favorable outcome if you were the Jets. So when you're trying to thread this needle of winning after you've missed out on a guy you drafted with the number two overall pick, it does seem like this is a prudent way to go about it, even if again, it does come with some serious risks. Absolutely. And that's what I talked about. or the mid-offense is 10% Super Bowl chance, right? It's double that chance of getting the championship round. So especially look at the AFC, you're the Jets.

You've got, you know, this coach, this GM, they're pushing. What are we going to do? It's an important year. And it's not like scaling the mountain in the NFC. I mean, man, you're going to be in there with Mahomes and all of these top quarterbacks in the AFC. So this is a pretty good solution. And even if it fails, look, I'm sure people are going to lose their job and stuff, but I think it's a good move to make for them.

if you think about how quickly things could fall into place, one of the lingering questions that would come with something like this is, all right, new coaching staff, new situation, what's it going to be like? The familiarity with the offensive coordinator, I think, has to be a real thing that's considered. The idea there's going to be no communication gaps, they know each other, they like each other. I think that is a point in the Jets favor. I think the bigger question is, on a personnel level, how much do we think the Jets are actually set up to succeed on offense outside of Aaron Rogers?

in your opinion. Okay, so I'm really excited about Garrett Wilson. I mean, I think he's on his way, if he's not already, to being an upper tier wide receiver. So he's a good young player, but established. He's like an established young player. You bring in Alan Lazard as a complimentary player. I think that's fine. Somebody who knows Rogers, someone who's going to be his friend, probably get along with him, that sort of stuff. So you've got a couple of weapons right away. I think there's some question marks elsewhere, but you're probably going to be getting Brees Hall back. And I'm fine with it. I think there's certainly a long ways away from having the offensive infrastructure of a Kansas city with an amazing play caller and a system that's been there forever. But I think the familiarity,

like you said, with Hackett, who's also going to have a chip on his shoulder, I think, gives them a chance. I think it's good for them. And so I think they'll be, if I had to bet on what bucket they will be offensively, the middle of the pack or the top 10, I think it's probably the upper middle of the pack. I think they're probably a top, you would say, if I made the over under 12 and a half on the ranking,

in like a whatever, DVOA, EPA, are you going above that? That's a good number. I'm saying it's right in there. I would probably say below that just because Mike areaving it that fast, I think, is a pretty tall task. But I think that that's the general range. And that general range with them being really good on defense again, which I don't think is a given, by the way. We know how volatile defense is from season to season. There's no way to know about that. But if that's the needle that you're trying to threat, I think that that is a totally reasonable place to put them. And looking at

their offensive personnel, they still have their first round pick. They still have another second round pick. So they still have some pieces to potentially fortify, whether it's the offensive line or some other areas of this roster to see what they can do here in the short term. Because make no mistake, this is a short term play. This is all about what you can do next year. And if you're lucky and he wants to hang around what you can do the season after that because he's a 39-year-old quarterback. You are making a bet here over the next two years to have this go or have him take you as far as he can take you. Yep, totally.

And you're right. The moving from 13 to 15, I don't care about that. I mean, you still got a top 15 pick. I'm sure there's no huge advantage to that. That's almost like a distraction. So you're right. They've got a good pick. And now they can, it'll be funny to see how they use it, right?

That'll be a story. Oh, they didn't get a such and such for Rogers. I can just see it now. On the Packers side of this, what's interesting to me, you know, we know they're moving on to Jordan Love, but he has a $40 million dead cap hit this year. I believe Rogers does. This is without any tweaks to what would happen just normally based on the trade. If you click a button on over the cap, these are the numbers that come up for you.

So if there are any sort of tweaks or money that one team is handling more than the other, and we learned about that a little bit later on, I apologize. But this is what would happen by the book. It's a $40 million dead cap hit. He had a $31 million cap charge anyway. So they're only losing $9 million in cap space and the Packers have plenty of it. But I believe that he has nothing. They have nothing on the books for him after this year.

So now they'd be looking at about $54 million in cap space in 2024, even with a 40.5 million cap hit for David Bakhtiari, 27 and a half for Kenny Clark, 24.3 for Jaira Alexander, all of these huge contracts that they've taken on. And that was always kind of the interesting pivot point to me about Green Bay's place in all of this, is that moving on to Jordan Love, who needs, they need to figure out his fifth year option, I believe, as part of this entire equation because that's another question here. but they still have a lot of financial flexibility, even with some of these veteran contracts, after moving on from Rogers. So again, the little off-ramp pivot point that this created for them was kind of an interesting team-building exercise, in my opinion, and now we're getting to see that play out in real life. I actually, just as a matter of experiment, can't wait to see them without Rogers.

I can't wait. I feel the same way for multiple reasons, but. Yeah, yeah, not like I'm thinking they're going to be amazing or terrible. I'm not saying it to one of those things. I just think it's a fascinating. experiment because they've got a team, they've got six number one picks that start on defense. Right? So there's a lot of people there that we're looking to number 12, right? And they've always been a team. When you have a player like that, you feel like you're in it. You feel like we've got our

guy here. Whether you like them or don't like them or any of that, he gives you a feeling going into every season that anything's possible. And you can't fake that. The new guy has to earn that. So there are a different team. Green Bay, I'm old enough to remember Green Bay in the 80s before they had Farr. I think people just take for granted a little bit what it's been like to have these two types of quarterbacks. Now, maybe loves the next one. I'm not saying he is or isn't, but it's unlikely. Just as it was unlikely, Rogers would be. So that's a different place fundamentally in terms of people who do or don't even want to go play there. Right? What's the draw? if you're a free agent, go in there.

There is none anymore. I mean, but I don't know how much there was one when Rogers was there. You know, how many guys do you think signed there because Aaron Rogers was the quarterback? Because they didn't do a lot of hunting and free agency. Well, Ted Thompson didn't do a lot of hunting in free agency. Right. You're right. You're right.

It really was just that one year where they went to get both of the Smiths and Adrian and Amos and kind of went on that spending spree. Other than that, they've kind of done things their own way. And I think that this is another example of that where we're going to build this with draft picks. We're going to play it slowly. We're going to be patient. and we're going to operate to our own rhythm here.

And that's what they've always done. And I think Brian Kuntkis is kind of the next one in line to do it that way. They always did that with number 12 throwing 40 touchdown passes a year. Very good point. Yes. Now let's see what they always do that with Jordan Love there and see how it goes. They've got, you know, obviously they're going to have more draft capital to figure this out. They're going to have the first round pick next year, an extra second this year.

And then they hopefully have another first round pick in 2024 to build up the rest of the infrastructure and see how, much of that talent that they currently have on the roster, they retain. So do they go get another pass catcher in the first round? Does Rogers not being there motivate them to be a little bit more aggressive with some of those past catching options in a way they didn't have to be in years past? How this potentially changes the mindset and the way that they operate, I think I totally agree, is a fascinating point to think about. It is.

Today, it must be a day of tremendous relief. I mean, they've just had to deal with this thing. It's been uncomfortable. I bet you they're going to have a couple nice cold ones at the bar tonight, you know, and just, yes, we did it. In Wisconsin, where?

Yeah. And maybe, you know, and maybe there should be a little, I hope it's not so better. There's not a little tear in your eye, too, because it is the end of an era. Well, I was going to say that.

The relief is for me. Yeah. Bears fan, I know. I think that's one of the things I tweeted the winners, you know, the key winners of this trade are the lions, the bears, you know, lions, bears and Vikings,

because it's a, it's been a long time looking at that quarterback. I had said this before. the show. When the Packers traded for Brett Farrf in February of 1992, I was four years old. So I don't have a football consciousness before Brett Farrb was the quarterback for the Packers. We had season tickets to the Bears when I was a kid, and we only watched NFC North games. There was no NFL Sunday ticket in my house when I was growing up. We watched the Bears games every week. And so I watched Brett Farrf twice a year from the time I was four years old until the time I was 21.

17 years. And the moment that ended, they moved on to a guy who I think at his peak was probably better than Brett Farf. And when you got to that point, 2009 and 2010, and we realized what Aaron Rogers was going to be, and then you get that 2011 season where he goes on that absolute fucking tear, they're the best team in the league, he wins his first MVP. The reign of terror that the Green Bay Packers and their quarterbacks have instilled on the people of Chicago, Aaron Rogers screaming, I own you to the crime.

route for justifiably his last couple trips to that place. It has to feel good. Of course, in the back of my mind, I'm absolutely terrified that Jordan Love is just going to be the next guy in line here. And in my 50s, the Jets trade for Jordan Love because they need a quarterback and they need their own version of what's coming next here. But for now, it does feel pretty good that I will wake up tomorrow and the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers will not be someone who is destined for the Hall of Fame or who has

already let bit it was already been in trying there. I'm telling you, you know, so, you know, the history of this, too, I'll share on a personal level. So my, my youngest son is 18 years old. And when he, he was probably in preschool when Rogers had the starting job. And his preschool teacher was from Green Bay, Wisconsin, Mrs. Kehoe. And she got him, like in the Packers. Because I was a, I was a beat reporter at the time. You're not really a fan anymore of the team. So I wasn't like, hey, I live, we live in Seattle. hey, you got to root for the Seahawks. So he has been a Packer fan starting with the first year that Rogers was the quarterback.

So before he could barely pronounce his words, Ewan Wages, you know, that's been his life the whole time. And so the year before last, when these rumors were coming down, I decided I'm going to take him to Lambeau Field and we went. And I'm telling you, Rogers is everything. he wore his Darnell Savage jersey and today when I went into his room he still lives here at home he always had jerseys on the wall and I of course I tripped over about five things

because it's a mess the Rogers jersey wasn't on the wall and I went and looked where they were all hung up and the only one I saw in there was like from it was like would fit like a toddler or fit like a he's kind of moved on a little bit which is hard for me to believe

I say it a little wish. I think a lot of Packers fans are like that. Yeah. I think a lot of Packers fans I know in my life have reached that kind of emotional place. The same way I bet a lot of people in the front office have. Yeah. So, you know, and he loved Rogers more anything.

He doesn't hate Rogers. It's just it's over. You know, it's over. So this painful goodbye has given people a chance to disengage emotionally, I think a little bit. And it's time. It feels like it's time to move on.

I don't want to do like Rogers' career retrocesses. perspectives here because he's still playing. This is just the end of his time in Green Bay. And I think that I have very specific memories of that. I think that his time really being arguably the best player in the league and rising to that moment, kind of a lion's with when I got into this business. My first year out of college was the year he won his first MVP. The 2014 season where he won his second one, it was the year I really started covering

the league full time. I went there and wrote a big story about his offensive line and him. I spent a lot of time up there in that building. being in Chicago and kind of just taking trips up there. It 100% will feel like the end of an era and kind of moving to a different place during my next trip up there. There's no denying that it will. Amazing place, though.

Green Bay is bigger than any individual. You know, as much as this is going to be, it is a different place. And that's always been the case. It was bigger than Farb. It's bigger than Rogers. And even if they go five and 12 and Jordan Love is terrible, Green Bay is still just a special place with or without. You know, the people change.

but that place is different. The Packers have to feel a little bit different today. There's no denying that, but the Jets also have to feel a little bit different today. Because, again, this is their best shot. If they're going to have a shot, this is going to be the best one. And now we get to see how it plays out and we get to see how that bet comes up. Imagine what Robert Sala is feeling right now. Just think of, you know, from a defensive standpoint of what you don't like to go against,

you know, and what an uphill feeling it is to go into games when you have a young, struggling quarterback and you're just trying to get out of the game 16 to 13 or something, he probably can't believe what it feels like. He is stepping into a Lamborghini. The point you brought up about you feel like you have a chance every single week because he's your quarterback. That shit is real. And now you go from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rogers.

And if I'm in that building and I'm trying to spin this in the most optimistic way possible, I'm just thinking about Tom Brady. I'm thinking about Tom Brady getting to Tampa in 2020, and that was being the final piece of what that team needed to take them over the top. Tom Brady's aura and the way he hangs over a building, I think is probably a little bit different than the way that Aaron Rogers does. But I think that that belief and what it can do to galvanize the people there because of what he's accomplished, that I feel like has to feel at least a little bit similar.

That's a really interesting point because I thought of Peyton Manning, too. So Peyton Manning had won a couple of MBPs. Then he had the injured year. And then he went to Denver. And he is definitely like Brady, the guy who sets the tone for the entire building. And that's interesting. Those guys, I think, you know, Peyton Manning was almost like a coach during practice. I mean, he was really running things.

And Tom Brady was probably not quite the same amount of running things, especially with a strong coach like Bruce Ariens. What is Rogers? Is he really that or is he just damn good, right? Is he going to galvanize or lead in the same way as those guys? I think our perception is no, that he's not quite on that level of the CEO, that he has a little bit of a quirkiness to him that's different. He's a little bit more of an individual. But we'll see.

But if the guys in the building, if the confidence bruise because of him, then the tangible effect is real, even if he's not bringing that same sort of presence the way that those other guys did. And I think that that is the type of bet that the Jets are making. And now we get to see how it goes. It's a great bet for them. You don't get a chance to make this bet. If it fails, it's still a great bet.

Yeah. And it certainly might. So we'll see how it goes. Mike Sando, thank you very much, sir. Always good to catch up with you in big moments like this. We really appreciate it. If people want to hear more of you, you guys will be back with our final pre-draft episode of the football GM,

you and Randy Mueller are going to be still be doing the show on Thursday. So I highly encourage people to go check that out. And if you haven't listened to the other pre-draft episodes of the football GM, the Randy's quarterback rankings, the conversation these guys had about the quarterbacks or the corners, really encourage you to all check that out. Thank you. All right, guys. That is all we got.

Appreciate you sticking by for a little bonus episode here. We will be back tomorrow, me, Nate, and Dane for our last pre-draft episode. to be in your feeds overnight into Tuesday. We will also be back on Wednesday with a little beat writer mock draft. We're doing a top 10 with our writers who cover these teams at the athletic we've done the last couple of years. It's a really fun show. And one final reminder, Thursday night, live 7.30 p.m. Eastern on the Athletic Football

Show YouTube channel, me, Dane, Nate, coming to you from Kansas City, breaking down every pick of the first round, along with some visits from our athletic NFL friends. here and there, really excited about the live show. Also be coming to you on Friday for rounds two and three. So please make sure to come and check that out. For now, that is all that we've got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.

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