The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - AFC QB supporting cast rankings

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

The NFL is a quarterback driven league, there's no doubt about it. But do the Eagles win the Super Bowl last year without their offensive line? Do the Chiefs establish a dynasty without Andy Reid? Are the Rams and Bengals playing in Super Bowl LVI without Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins? The supporting casts around quarterbacks matter, too. Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen rank the supporting casts in the AFC on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Rundown (timestamps are approximate)1:25 Intro7:10 Jets11:02 Patriots15:06 Browns18:56 Titans22:23 Texans29:21 Chargers34:34 Steelers38:32 Jaguars43:06 Dolphins48:43 Raiders54:00 Colts59:01 Chiefs1:04:42 Bills1:08:50 Broncos1:09:46 Bengals1:12:46 Back to the Broncos!1:16:17 RavensHosts: Robert Mays and Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. We did something last year. It's a deep off-season topic, but one that I had a lot of fun doing. Just ranking the supporting casts among every team in the NFL. What we did last year is we split it into the AFC and the NFC, and that's exactly what we're going to do this year.

Today is the AFC. And just explaining the details of the exercise because I think that supporting cast can mean different things to different people. There are really three different buckets that, Derek and I were pulling from in order to do this. The first was the play caller and the over the offensive infrastructure and ecosystem. It's a little bit harder to weight that than it is some of these other things just because you don't really have talent on paper.

But I do think it's a huge, it plays a huge role, undeniably, in which quarterbacks get support and which don't. So just the play caller and the ecosystem and infrastructure was one part of it. Pass catching talent. Very simple to understand. Right. So how good are your past catchers? How deep is the past catching group?

how much star power does the past catching group have? And then the offensive line sort of slash run game, right? Those things play into each other. So the pass perception you get from your offensive line, the quality of your offensive line, but also how much can you lean on the running game as part of the overall support system. So those three buckets, how you weigh those is going to be different in what you personally value. I think that you're going to hear that in the conversation that I had with Derek as we ranked

some of these teams. There are a couple in here that we're very far away on. There are a couple that were a little bit contentious. I think that we both tried to convince each other about a couple teams that we felt like were too high or too low on these lists. So really enjoyed this conversation, really enjoy doing these exercises. Hope you guys do as well. Let's get to it right now.

I'm already a little bit worried about this based on the pre-show conversation that Derek and I were just having. But we're doing something and exercise that I really enjoyed doing last year. And I'm very excited to be doing again this year. I'm not worried about it because I think the conversation will be. be bad. I'm worried about it, Derek, because I think the conversation in some areas is particularly naughty. I think it's going to be a great conversation. I just there, I was saying before the show, and we'll get to this stretch, obviously. It's seven through like 12, no matter how I order it,

is going to piss me off. And so I'm, I think it's going to be a very fun show for that reason. I think I had like a tier from 16 to 12 that I felt okay about. And then 11 to 7 is definitely some treacherous territory, depending on how you see certain teams. I felt pretty good about the top six. Here's my biggest takeaway from this. The top six I felt awful about because I didn't, I think that putting teams near the top, like if you put a team at like four, like the team I have at four, I feel like their fans are going to get mad because they think that it's going to be taking away from what

their quarterback is doing. And I'm not trying to say that these teams, even in the top five in the AFC, have like these bulletproof supporting cast because I don't think they do. I think every supporting cast in the AFC for the most part is imperfect. I think the better supporting cast are probably in the NFC as we do that exercise next week. So all the teams I put in the top five,

I was like, I don't know if I feel great about this, but I also don't know that I could put them any lower. Like I have the Broncos pretty high. Could I put the Broncos behind the Jags? I don't think so. So that's kind of how I ended up sorting all of this out is that I put these teams in the top five or six that even if I don't love certain elements of who they are, I felt like I couldn't rank them any lower. That's a good way to put it because

I think they were, even for the teams that I have ranked first, second, third in here, there's still like some quibbles I could have with how this thing might get put together. But then obviously in the NFC, it's going to be like, what am I going to say about the Vikings or the Eagles? You know what I mean? Like those feel like more bulletproof situations than some of these ones. Like the Rams with Sean McVeigh, like the Lions obviously things have changed without Ben Johnson, but the Lions you could have said that about last year. Like, there's so many good infrastructures in the NFC that in a way they've had to rely on them because the elite quarterbacks are in the other conference. So I just think that maybe that's altering how I'm thinking about this, but there are a lot of factors here. There are four or five teams where I was just like, I don't know what to do with this.

Like we'll get to the Chiefs. I had no idea what to do with the Chiefs because they're one of those teams, I think, from outside perception where it's, well, there are definitely issues with what their supporting cast looks like. And then you stack it up to the rest of the teams in the ASC. And it's just like, well, the receivers are good when they're healthy. And they still have two Pro Bowl offensive linemen, even if there's one bad spot. Andy Reid is still there. And I think that's the last part of this. How you index the factors ultimately is going to determine how you're going to do the rankings.

So I mentioned this in the intro. Essentially, the things I took into play were play caller slash infrastructure, offensive line kind of slash running game. I was doing running game as a separate entity and that I was like, it's just the same as I feel about the offensive line except like for the Ravens because Derek Henry is involved in that. And then pass catchers. So just like the receiving talent you're throwing to. And whatever kind of multiplier or weight you would have put on one of those factors is ultimately going to play into where these teams slot in for you. And in some ways that make me a little bit uncomfortable when I look at the number next to some of these teams.

I think uncomfortable is the right word. There are at least three teams on here where for good or bad, I feel pretty icky about where I have them. But like, I couldn't find a better spot to put them. I don't know what to say. This is going to go either really well or really poorly. Again, I think the conversation will be fun. I think some of this may age very poorly because so much of this feels jumbled. Let's get right into it.

I'm going to let you kick this off. Who did you have at number 16? We're going to go 16 to 1 because I think that's the better way to do this. I had the New York Jets. That's who I had as well. I'm so glad that you had the Jets there because I felt a little uncomfortable about that. I was like, oh man, are they really this low? I, they weren't the initially when I made the list at like my first rough draft of this list,

they were not the team that I had at 16. But I ultimately got them there just because this offensive line, even if I like some of the pieces like Foshanu might really develop well. I really liked Armand Membu in the draft. But the interior to me is still kind of shaking. and have had some injury issues, and I think these young tackles still need to prove it. So the offensive line made me kind of icky. And then outside of Garrett Wilson, man, like, who's catching passes? Like, it's going to be Alan Lazard.

Like, Josh Reynolds is like an okay wire receiver four, but he might be wide receiver too. And then for as much as I like Mason Taylor, a rookie second round tight end might be your second best pass catcher? I don't know, man. Yeah, that's pretty much where I land. I think that the offensive line has a lot of upside. I'm excited about that group, but you're banking on a left tackle that's played 500 snaps and a right tackle who's a rookie?

Like, who the hell knows what the development curve is going to look like for those guys in a new offense? The past catchers, I think you could make a serious argument that the two through four options on the Jets are worse than the two through four options on any other team in the league. Yes. I think that's ultimately where I landed because almost all of these teams have at least like one player where you can rally behind and then you're kind of just quibbling with, again, what does two through four look like or do they have a star tight end or whatever it is.

The Jets have none of that man. And when you add that on top of again, young offensive line and a play caller we've not seen before, there's just so much uncertainty with all of this that it's just hard to feel good about anything other than Garrett Wilson will somehow get himself to a thousand yards again. And that's just not enough. I think the offensive line, obviously the runway is there, but it's still a question mark because those guys are a little bit young. We'll see how it meshes.

The first year play caller part of it absolutely needs to be pointed out. And there is a chance that Tanner Anxren comes in and he's Zach Robinson from last year, or he's a guy that immediately proves he can make Drew Petzing in year one. Guys, we had never seen do this that come in and immediately make a positive difference. But I don't know how to, like, account for that right now. I just don't think you can. I don't think that's the assumption that you can make with these first year guys. This is the area where you can be the most wrong because there's so much uncertainty,

but I'm in a wait and C mode when it comes to a lot of these first year play callers that we've never watched do the job. That's the thing. Putting the Jets at 16 doesn't mean I think for certain they will be bad. It's just like this list is kind of a, what is the percentage chance that you'll look good? And I think for the Jets is just they had the lowest percentage chance for me. And this kind of plays into a conversation we had on a mailbag a couple weeks ago where we're talking about those sort of listener who said, are there any more bad quarterbacks? And I think with bad quarterbacks, you can also fold that into bad passing games where you just have these passing games that just are very unendable. healthy. And I think the Jets have to be in the conversation from one of those passing games that

could have a really low floor this year just because of all of the factors that we're talking about. When you combine the certainty in a bad way with the receiving depth and the uncertainty in all the other areas, there's a real chance that this is a rough offense. There's a chance they're solid, but I think that the variance here is pretty extreme considering all the unknown factors. Yeah. And even and the other thing is like even the best outcome is probably like, average. So how excited can I really get here? Oh, I think average would be a screaming win for this team. If they were like the 16th most efficient passing offense in the league, that's a massive, massive win for this group. And I think that tells you all you need to know and why they landed

16 for both of us. Who'd you have at 15? So I like some of the stuff they did in the direction they're heading, but I still had the New England Patriots, man. They have a lot that they still need to prove to me. Like this offensive line might still, it might still not be any good. Even like, Will Campbell's nice. I really like the Wilson pick, but Wilson might not even play very much as a rookie. So like, I think that's certainly part of it. Morgan Moses, I know for a long time, he's been the, oh, veteran stock got tacky, you can get him in there. He's getting old, man. Like, he's been doing that for like a decade now. He's 34. Yes. Like this could be the year where this is just, it's over. And then even with the past catching core, it's like, I don't know what we're getting from stuff.

Fon Diggs and then all the other guys for the most part of rookies. And Josh McDaniels, even if I think maybe he's a decent floor setter, I don't know how excited I'm getting about a McDaniels offense in 2025. I had them at 14. So we're not too far off on this. I had them pretty far down. And I think it's for a lot of those same reasons. I'm intrigued by what Josh McDaniels round four or five or whatever it is could look like here.

Because this is the first time that, and I'm sure we're going to get so much stuff about this offseason, like the Josh McDaniels study abroad year that he just had where he's backpacking around the United States learning about himself. So that aspect of it combined with the fact that he's surrounded by the staff of guys he's never coached with before. That can be a bad thing. But when it comes to trying to germinate some new ideas and kind of take yourself in a new direction, I think you could also spin that as a positive thing. So I don't have huge hopes for this being like one of those ceiling lifting offensive staffs, but I do think that there's a lot of intrigue about what it's actually going to look like. And I do think it could be pretty good.

The offensive line, I'm 100% with you. It's like Will Campbell's a rookie. He's a rookie left tackle. Even if he's solid, I think there's probably a limit on what you can expect in year one. They made a lateral move at center with Bradbury. And I still have questions about what the other guard spot looks like. You know, they've got some bodies, you know, late in Robinson or if Cole Strange comes back, whatever, but I still think the guy across from on when it was a question, and Morgan Moses is 34. The past catchers, I like Kyle Williams. I think Kyle Williams is a fun player. Kyle Williams is also a third round pick, and I've always liked Stefan Diggs.

But you've got a third round pick, and you got a 32-year-old guy with shot serotonin receptors coming off of a torn ACL. And I just think there's not a lot that you can really bank on with this, even if the names on paper are better. Oh, you think that might be a really volatile past catching core? Is that what you're getting it? That's kind of what I'm getting at, yes. That's pretty much where I'm at. And like, I think definitely more than the Jets, there's a chance it could actually be really good. There's a chance that Diggs is a thousand yard receiver again and that Williams is a really good rookie.

I just, there's also a chance that neither of them are any good and we're only like 5% better than we were last year as a passing offense. What do you think is the, if we did this exercise after the season, and again, this is a really good way to look like a moron, What do you think is the highest ranking you could possibly see them having? Like 14th maybe, where you're like a moderately above average unit. But like even that would. I meant on this exact exercise. So like that would be like seventh or eighth, right? Like seventh or eighth in the AFC.

Yeah, probably like seventh or eighth where you're like barely eking into the above average category. But nobody thinks that you're like contending for anything serious like that caliber. Yes. I think that's where I land. And I think that's why again, I think when you're doing this, because of the uncertainty in so many of these areas, you kind of have to play a floor ceiling game, where even if they're going to finish higher than 14th

in some of these outcomes, the ceiling is low enough. That's one of the reasons that I put them here. So I had them at 14, you had them at 15. Who did you have at 14? I'm almost debating moving one of these. Okay, I'm going to do it,

and I feel bad about this because I really like the coach. For me, it's probably the Cleveland Browns. There's just a lot about this receiving core that gives me kind of the ick. There's some of it I like, like Injoku's nice, and I like the fan and pick and all that jazz. But this offensive line is getting older. I don't really love a lot of these past catchers. And I just, it's hard for me to get excited about a lot of it.

Even if I think Stifansky is still an awesome play caller. So you add, okay, so we haven't gotten to the team. I have at 15 yet. I had the Browns at 13. You had them at 14. So I think we're in a similar range here. I'm excited about seeing them get back to basics offensively. and it's been some breadcrumbs that you could pick up,

but also they've said it explicitly. Like Joel Betonio did media availability at what I assume is a golf tournament of some kind. He was wearing a polo and there was like a golf course in the background. And he was talking about how the run game installation has essentially been what it felt like in 2020. So they're really just going back to what this was supposed to feel like. They obviously drifted away from that in the Deshaun Watson era of things because they were trying to do everything they could to make that work. So I think them getting back to the meat and potatoes of all of this is going to remind us that Kevin Stefansky is pretty good at it. He stopped calling plays last year for reasons that had nothing to do with his capacity as a play caller.

So I am excited about seeing that again. But the actual players, I think that we could have some pretty unfortunate conversations about what's going on there. How do you feel about the offensive line? I'm really worried about what's going on at left tackle man. Like, DeWan Jones being your potential day one, left tackle is, I think, extremely scary to me. And then this interior, I think Betonio and Teller are still good, but they are getting a little bit older and they don't feel quite like they have the pop that they did when Nick Chubb

was the best running back in the league two or three years ago. And then even to the point of the backs, it's like, I like the Quintan Jugginsett's pick. And Ford is a solid like home run hitter. I don't know if this is like quite a good enough duo for them to be like the run game that they really want to be to make this Stefansky offense go. Yeah, I feel the same way. I think that the offensive line, if things come together perfectly, right? If DeWan Jones gives you solid and reliable left tackle play, the guards still have a little

bit of juice, they stay healthy. That's one of the biggest questions to me. Conklin's played more than 12 games once in the past four years. And so you're already worried about that. At least they have some interior depth. They signed Kevin Jenkins to a one-year deal. I think that they can endure some injuries to one of those guards. But I think the offensive line, there are just not as many outcomes.

where I feel really good about them being like the engine of a decent offense compared to a few years ago. And so if you're kind of split on that and then you look at the past catchers, that's how they end up like 14th or 13th on a list like this. Yeah, their past catchers, they are betting desperately that Cedric Tillman can give them like 800 yards, which like I like the idea of Cedric Tillman. I don't know if we're getting that at this point. So this was probably, I will say, the ranking where where I, putting them here is the most is the furthest removed from where I would have just the play caller like the play caller to me would be like fifth or sixth in the conference but yeah the rest of it the rest of the

picture doesn't really come together for me and I think I'm tempted and usually lean to over indexing the play callers in the ecosystem when it comes to a list like this and I think that lets you know how scared I am about the rest of the factors in play here the fact that I have the browns at 13 so you had the jets at 16 you had the Patriots at 15 you had the Browns at 14 who do you have at 13? The Houston Texans. Where do you have the Titans? This is, I have shots by this.

We'll get there. We're getting close. I have the Titans at 15. So that's the team that I have a 15 that we have not gotten to yet. I have the, I'll spoil it a little bit. I have them for my next pick. I think the Titans are like not that bad.

I don't think they're good. All right. So you have the Titans at 12 then. Yeah. Okay. Why do you think the Titans are like, demonstrably better than the Patriots or the Browns at this point. I would love to hear the argument for this.

Ridley is a better player than I thought he was going to be. And I think even compared to a guy like Diggs at this stage, like Diggs to me is just, it's a scarier proposition given his age and given the injury history and all of that. So I actually think in a lot of ways Ridley is a little bit more stable to me than that. And even more so than like a guy like Jerry Judy. You know, we just talked about the Browns.

So I think there's that. I kind of like Tyler Lockett. I still think that he has something to give. And this offensive line, the more that I look at it, I've sold myself on it, especially if Cushingberry can stay healthy and really give them something. Like, maybe I just have too much faith that J.C. Latham is going to be like a star at right tackle, but I really think that he can be. And then even like the running back room is kind of good.

Like, I like Tony Pollard. Tai J. Spears is something. Like, I don't know if O'Conco is good, but if Lockett gives them something more as a receiver, that helps them out a little bit. So I think this was just a unit where. I didn't feel like the floor talent-wise was as bad as I thought maybe a couple of months ago. And then I like Callahan as a play caller. That's a decent argument.

I can see some of that. I think in order to put the Titans ahead of the Browns, I think that you have to make a compelling argument that you think in most outcomes, if you played the season out a thousand times, the Titans offensive line is better like 700 of those a thousand times. And I think that's, I could see that argument and how that could play out. But I think there's a little bit of projection involved in that. Right.

Like you have to build in some improvement for Latham. You have to make sure that you're getting the same level of play out of Dan Moore this year as you got out of him last year. And then health becomes the biggest question. But I think if the group stay is healthy, you can make a pretty solid argument that they have the upside of like a top 12-ish offensive line. I think part of the reason that I had them a little bit lower is that to me, the entire discussion hinges on that. group. Like, is it a step from a bottom three offensive line to middle of the pack? Or is it a step from a bottom three offensive line to like a top 10 offensive line? Because if it's the latter, then I think they probably deserve to be a little bit higher here. I think I'm probably just

a little bit more in wait and see mode than you are. And I do not like the receivers outside of Ridley as much as you seem to. I think all of that's fine, especially the receiver call. Like maybe I do still think that Lockett just has more than he actually does have left to give. But the offensive line, I just, I don't know, compared to teams like New England, compared to teams like Cleveland, I just felt a lot better about it. And then even the team we just mentioned to start this part, the Houston Texans, I feel way better about the Titans offensive line than I feel about the Houston Texans offensive line. All right.

I think that's reasonable. I could probably have, I could probably move them up a little bit higher based on the offensive line potential. I think framing it that way where it's, okay, you're comparing that offensive line to the Patriots offensive line, that offensive line to the Brown's offensive line. I think that's actually a good way to put it. So I'm fine with them being a little bit higher for you. So you had the Jets at 16, you had the Patriots at 15, you had the Browns at 14, you had the

Houston Texans at 13. And I'm assuming you have them a little bit higher. For me to spoil the rest of my list, offensive line is a pretty big deal for me for the most part here. And I think the Houston Texans might have the worst offensive line still out of of this unit. And even if there's a whole AFC, you think they have the worst offensive line? I think there's a pretty good chance they have.

Do they have one player on that offensive line who you think is even an average starter? Titus Howard at Guard is probably an average starter. That's probably it. You got like Fisher going into year two. So, all right. I had the Texans higher. I had the Texans higher than that. I had the Texans at nine.

Oh, man. I don't feel great about that. I think they were one of the hardest teams to place. I agree with. So let's talk through this. The Nick Cayley of it all, I can admit that I am probably more bullish on this working than I should be for a first year offensive play caller

just because I think his background is really interesting. He's just got a ton of energy. I'm excited on him. I'm betting on him, I guess is what I'm saying. There's always uncertain to we never know how these are going to go. I'm betting on him. And I think the fact that I am doing that and have so many chips lined up there is probably the reason I have them a little bit higher

than you would. But I have the same sort of concerns about the offensive line. And honestly, I understand that because in the world where the Texans offense, the infrastructure and all that does look good, it's because Nick Cayley gets the most out of this offensive line. The rules are a lot better. The run game is decent. And then it allows the receiving core, which is very obviously the best part of this entire unit to actually thrive and be what it's supposed to be. It's just for me, even for as nice as a lot of the past catchers are, I think I'm just in more wait and see and like prove it to me with the play caller and the offensive line. Whereas like to the point of like you saying, oh, this is my bet, I think throughout this entire

list, we're all going to have like two or three different bets that we're making. And for me, it was just, I think the Titans offensive line is one of mine. And yours is Nick Cayley. The offensive line part with the Texans, personnel wise, I don't think, I think you're on completely solid ground. They're worse personnel-wise than they were last year when they had the worst pass protection in the NFL or at least bottom two. I think them, bottom three. I think

them, the Seahawks and the Patriots are probably the three teams that I would throw in that. But so bottom three, however you cut it, I think the Titans are right in that conversation. I think that sometimes when the situation itself is just rotten to the core, we lose sight of what the players actually are.

And I'm with you and that I don't think there are that many decidedly above average starters. among their offensive line. I think the very simple act of them having a new offensive system with new pass protection rules will make this group look so much better than it was last year. Does that mean they look like the 23rd best offensive line in the league? Potentially. That might be still one of the better case scenarios.

I think there are going to be enough nuts and bolts improvements here that it could pull them out of disaster territory even without any definitive upgrades personnel wise. I think it certainly could But even with that argument It's like well the left tackle And the left guard weren't even guys who were there last year And I don't think either of them are any good So I just that adds

It gets really really tough for me personnel was What do you think is the best case scenario For that offensive line In terms of where they could shake out? Like I mean you said 23rd That's probably about like the ceiling for me Like I would be shocked if it's a whole lot better than that

All right. So the Nick Cayley part of this, again, I think that's part of why I had them a little bit higher. And I think that there is a world where the past catchers are good. You know, I think the past catchers are good. Yeah. I mean, Nico's a monster, obviously, right? And so I think that we have to take that into account. Like, when you have one of those like true alpha dudes at the center of this, I think that the other guy is a little bit lower, matter somewhat less.

And I think he is in that territory. Like, I think he's probably, I don't know, stack him up right now. I think you can make a really sought argument. He's one of the 10 best receivers in a league where, that is stacked with receiver talent right now. And I like what they did. I'm not as big of a Jaden Higgins guy as I think the league was or some other people were coming into the draft,

but I'm more than willing to admit that I might not be seeing some of the upside and potential of a guy like Jaden Higgins because stylistically he's not my favorite sort of player. And I love Null. So I think the past catchers, there is a world where that shakes out really well. I think that the infrastructure and the ecosystem play calling wise is a chance to be significantly better,

even if it's an unknown. and I think the improvements there could lift the offensive line to a point where we're not having weekly conversations about the state of the Texans offensive line. And to me, that would feel like a win. Absolutely. The last thing I'll say is this is probably the one that I could feel the most wrong on. Because if the offensive line does just get to like 23rd and even one of the rookies hits, we've seen that all Stroud needs is like a moderately below average offensive line.

And he can make all of this really go. So this is the unit. I think if I look like an idiot, it's going to be the. Texans, but I'm still putting them where I'm putting them. I think ultimately we got me there again is optimism about Kaylee and like the Nico part of it. I think that probably had more weight because I'm looking at some of the other teams I had a little bit below them, right? Like I have not to spoil the whole list, but I had the Steelers below them.

I had the Chargers below them. And I think that there's similar concerns about the offensive lines in some areas for both of these teams. Like with the Chargers and the Steelers, I think it's still a theoretical for them to be as good as we want them to be. I don't think either of those teams has a past catcher that's as good as Nico Collins. And I'm not sure either of them by the end of the season will have play callers that are definitively better than Nick Cayley will be. So again, I think it's probably me penciling Kaylee and as a positive at the start in ways that I might not with a first year play caller.

And I could look wrong about that. But I'm just trying to talk myself through why I felt comfortable putting them ahead of some of these teams that you have behind them. It's fair. Like we said at the top, there's going to be some ones we feel weird about no matter how much we sit here and talk about them. All right, so read your 16 through 13 off before we go to break just so people can kind of keep track of this. I had the Jets and then I had the Patriots and then I want to say it was the Browns and then the Texans and then the Titans. That's where I'm at, I believe. Okay.

So my 16 through, I had the Jets at 16, the Titans at 15, the Patriots at 14, the Browns at 13. And then I won't spoil the team I have at 12. We'll get back with that in a second after we take a quick break. All right. I have the Los Angeles Chargers as my number 12 team. Where did you have them? One spot ahead. So I mean, pretty much the same range.

So it's same general range. Okay. Talk me through why you had them at 11, which is not bottom of the, like not like basement level supporting cast anymore, but still is below average. So what ultimately caused you to like drop them there and have a shake out that way?

So for me it was, I think there's some stuff to like, right? Like they have one of the, the best tackle duos in the league, even if they didn't look very good in that playoff game. And I have, the interior should be a little bit better. So that, all of that is nice. And also, Ladd McConkey is not in the, it might not be. Why?

Yeah, it might not be. The move they made on the interior was to sign Mackay Beckton. That's fine. Mackay Beckton was reasonably good for the Eagles last year. You're taking him from the best situation in the league where he has a Cam Juergens on one side that just got paid a shitload of money. And Lane Johnson on the other side with Jeff Stout. And now you're dropping him between Zion Johnson playing center for the first time and a second-year-right tackle with, again, just an infrastructure offensive line-wise, that is it nearly what the Eagles is? And that's the move they made.

Other than that, the big move is switching Bradley Bozeman and Zion Johnson. So are we sure that that's a path to definitively better interior offensive wide play? It's not going to be that good. But Bechtin just has to be like 15% better than Trey Pipkins, which I think even if Bechton isn't what they wanted to be like, that's pretty reasonable. That's fair. I also think that health with Bechton is a potential concern. Like when he stayed healthy last year and he has not been able to stay healthy in the past.

So I want to feel. That's a scarier thing to me, yeah. I want to feel better about the offensive line than I do. Because I think with the resources they've pumped into it and the idea that they've improved this off season, it's very easy to just say, oh, that, that'll be better. And then you take a step back and think about it for a second. It's like, okay, maybe. Like, I hope they'll be better.

but I don't think you can say it with such gusto. I guess that's my problem. I don't think they're going to be like the 10th best offensive line. I just think if they're going from like, I don't know, 24th to like 19th, I think that is like reasonable. And when you add that on top of, to me, getting a significantly better running back in a guy like O'Marion Hampton, that might be enough to like raise the floor of some of this stuff to just let Herbert

and Lad do all the things that they need to do. I think that's a good argument. I think if the running game can go from being, with truly like bottom three in success rate last year to a running game that's average or even slightly below average, that raises the floor of the offense in a pretty big way and an important way. And I do think that that's very much on the table. Pass catchers, I mean, Ladd is awesome, right?

Full stop. He is an awesome player. Other than that, it's still a lot of questions. Like, I think that there's a path for Trey Harris to make a lot of sense in this offense on what they want to do. But again, we're talking about second round rookies. and there are a lot of contingency plans. Like if it's not Trey Harris, it's Mike Williams at this stage of his career.

So I think my takeaway here for the most part with the personnel is that they're threading a pretty tight needle here with guys needing to work if the personnel is going to be significantly better than it was a year ago. And that's just a dangerous place to be where if the place where if Trey Harris doesn't work, oh boy, we're in trouble. That's just not a fun spot to be in when you're a team with a. the playoffs last year. Yeah, that's a bad sentence. And like maybe for me even having them only one spot higher is is me just over indexing a little bit into the offensive line. But the reason I knew I was

going to have them in the bottom half of this list is to play caller ceiling is only so high. And then yeah, everything outside of the lad, outside of lad from a past catcher perspective is, is pretty spooky to me. And I guess there was part of it where it was like, okay, well, that was the case last year and they were still a playoff team. But they didn't want to live the way that they were living clearly. So I just, yeah, it was hard for me to get them any higher than even like 10th if I really, really wanted to. I think that's kind of where I am too. Like, I think you could easily put them right with the Browns. I had them one spot ahead of the Browns.

Like, I think that's probably the same general range. I think the argument is that the offensive line is better and that Ladd is better than any past catcher that is on the bronze. And so I think that's probably why I settled there. And I'm with you on Roman. Like, I don't, he's become a punching bag in a way that I don't think is fair. I think he's a very good floor setter. I think that the ceiling, obviously, we can have a conversation about that. The Ravens did.

And you see the benefits that they've been able to reap because of it. But I think he is a capable offensive coordinator who definitely sets a reasonable floor for your offense. Exactly. He's kind of boring in the sense that we all know what he's going to be. But there's almost like some degree of like, okay, it's nice that I know what he's going to be compared to some of the other guys lower on this list. So I had the charges at 12. You had them 11. Who did you have at 12?

12 was where I had the Titans. Okay. So who did you have at 11? At 11, that was the charges for me. Okay. And then my next team at 10, or actually, wait, who did you have at 11 then? The Steelers. Okay, that was my next team. So that's interesting. All right. So we both have the Steelers. I had the Steelers one spot behind the chart, one spot ahead of the Chargers, and so did you.

Mm-hmm. Okay. That's correct. Do you feel good about having the Steelers even that high on this list? Okay, this is going to sound crazy, but I actually had them slightly higher when I started this and I had to talk myself out of it. And the reason is I think I was talking myself a little bit too much into like, oh, this young offensive line is really going to figure it out. And then I had to pull myself down and realize like, okay, that's a possibility, but that's also, there's a lot of other possibilities where these things don't work out the way that I want. And then when I coupled that on top of the like, I don't know if I trust many of the receivers outside of D.K. at all and then even DK to me is not the number one that Ladd is or Nico or even Garrett Wilson like other guys lower on this list.

It just, that's where I couldn't keep them as high as I wanted them to. As I look at this right now, the question I'm asking myself is, why are the Steelers higher than the Chargers? And I think there's a part of that that makes sense, but there's another part of it that it's like, I don't know if that should be the case. Like when I initially made the list and did that, I was like, okay, that seems right. And now as I sit here and think about it, I think the Steelers offensive line is more of a theory than the Chargers offensive line is. The Chargers offensive line, I think we know the tackles are going to be good. We haven't really seen Fawton new play. And Broderick Jones is moving back to the left side. And so in the interior, I think the upside for the Steelers interior is higher than it is for the Chargers interior. But I still think that you have a little bit of projection with McCormick. There's still youth there. And the past catchers, it's like, if you had to pick a guy right now, Ladd McConkey, or D.K. McCaff, be the number one pass catcher on your team.

Which one are you taking? It's a lad. Me too. If you had to pick a second best pass catcher from either of these teams, it would it be? Priority or tight end. It would be Pat Fireman. That's where I kind of got closer for me. I think that's fair.

Calvin Austin's a reasonable role player. And if you had between Arthur Smith and Greg Roman, who would you rather have call your offense right now? Arthur. And I think that to me was ultimately what's worth it. All right. Talking through it, I do feel better about it. But there was a moment here where I was like, am I losing my mind?

Like is it actually the right way to order these? It feels weird when you look at it. I think that's probably what was pushing me here, but to articulate it and talk it out a little bit, I think is helpful. Definitely. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's D.K. Fryermuth and like, that's it, depending on how you feel about Calvin Austin. Exactly.

But the charges, it's like, it's ladded that, like, Trey Harris, maybe. Whereas, like, at least Fryermuth, he's not the sexiest tit in the world, but we at least know what he is. And at least, I do think with Arthur Smith, he's gotten. a lot of, you know, criticism the last couple of years, but I do think the ceiling for what his offense and as a play caller can be is a little bit higher than a guy like Greg Roman. So, again, I could only put the Steelers so high, but I do at least feel like 2% better about them than the Chargers. The conversation about the Steelers' offensive line almost feels a little bit to me like

the conversation about the Titans offensive line, where you look at it on paper and you look at the investments in it. And it's like, okay, like this can be a good group. And I think that causes a lot of variance. I think that the offensive line being a top seven unit for the Steelers or like a top 10 unit, which I think is on the table, pushes them a little bit higher here. I just don't think you can do that with a lot of confidence considering how many unknown factors are playing into what the Steelers offensive line is this year. And I think part of why I initially had them higher is not even what we just saw from the young guys who actually played last year like Zach Frazier and stuff. It's that I really, really love Troy Fautano coming out of college. But then I

thought about it more and it's like we haven't seen a play and he's kind of coming off of some injury stuff so i had to pull them down a little bit all right so i had the steelers at 11 you had the steelers at 10 who did you have at 9 this is where i want to be very clear i don't like any of this part of the list by the way this is where i've gotten very uncomfortable this to me i think is the jacksonville jaguars um i have them higher i have them higher than that like like a couple spots higher than that i i get it because i really wanted to and this is where i think it's going to come down to like which part of the thing you're valuing, right? Because I think Cohen is awesome. But part of my reservation is like, okay, well, he's going into a head

coaching role now. And so that scares me a little bit. And for as much as I think the receiving core could be awesome with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, the more I look at the offensive line, the more I get scared. Like I've had the opposite effect with the Titans. Like, the more I look at the Titans, the more I'm like, I think it can work. The more I look at the Jaguar's offensive line, the more I get a little bit uneasy. I have the Jags at 7. Okay. You had them at nine. And so the reason I had them at seven is that we talked about this yesterday when we were discussing the Baker year.

I'm just a believer in what Cohen did last year as a play caller and as an architect of an offense. It is certainly possible as it has happened with countless other hot shot offensive coordinators in the past that this job eats him up. I'm willing to admit that and willing to acknowledge that. He is a one-year coordinator who did not exactly take. take like a rocket ship to that job. And so I do think that there is a chance that we see some regression from him just as a play caller in a new role. He's got a new staff.

He didn't take any of those guys with him. But I kind of want to just see Trevor, Brian Thomas Jr. And Travis Hunter in the sort of offense the Bucks had last year. So I think that's my problem is I'm just willing it to be true. And it's causing me to push them up a little bit higher here. You want the best outcome to be reality. I want 2024 Liam Cohen to be in the Jags boat building and calling their plays in 2025. And so I'm just deciding and treating it as if that is a given because of how badly I want to see it.

Maybe as the Trevor enthusiast, I'm actually doing the opposite where I'm like preparing myself for this to not be quite as exciting as I wanted to be in year one. Maybe like that genuinely might be part of it where I'm just scaring myself off of some of it. But I do think that this is one and this is why this part of the list is tough. the best outcome for them is like a top seven offense. Like if the offensive line is fine and those two receivers are who we think they are and Cohen takes to the job, they could light the world on fire. I just, I look at the offensive line and first year head coach and it scares me a smidgen. And I think that's why I have them as high as I do because I think the ceiling on this group

is higher than a team like the Raiders who I have below them. I actually have some optimism about the Raiders, but I think ceiling-wise, it's still higher for the Jags because of the receiving talent because of what we have seen Cohen do. So I think that's why I was pushing them up a little bit more just because I think the best case high-end scenarios here

and the high-end outcomes are really, really good with a couple of these factors. The offensive line, like, they're the 18th best offensive line in the league, that feels like a win with this group. And I think that can get them to their goals offensively. But the pass catcher is like, I'm just like, I'm riding this to the moon. I think that Brian Thomas Jr. is a star.

And I think that Travis Hunter in the best case scenario for Travis Hunter, if you have Brian Thomas, there aren't that many guys in the NFL right now that are dominant star level vertical receivers where he is so dynamic as a vertical player and is a number one receiver in like a vertical way. So pairing him with Travis Hunter, if the best case scenario for Travis Hunter, if the best case scenario for Travis Hunter is like peak OBJ. Think about that. Like it's stylistically, it's like the coolest thing you could possibly imagine.

And again, I'm just choosing to believe that it's going to work out to at least a B plus level early on. You're actually kind of convinced me to move them up. I really think part of this for me was like not trying to get too excited about Trevor and all that stuff. But I really think the more I say you're up to fail. You kind of are because the more I look at though, the two teams I have right ahead. of them. I think after these last few minutes of talking through it, I actually think I probably do prefer the Jaguars to the two teams.

So, yeah, I might switch my list a little bit here. I would probably bump the Jaguars up a little bit. So where did you have them? Nine? I think that would have been nine, yes. Okay. And so the next team I would have had that, again, I think I actually do want to put the Jaguars over them now when we finish out this list at the end is to me the Miami

Dolphins. The dolphins are tricky. I'm fascinated by where you have the Raiders. I'm getting there. Okay, so to spoil the list a little bit, the two teams that I'm talking about are the dolphins and then the Raiders. Okay. And so it's in this like general range.

But the dolphins to me are just weird because Tyree Kill will still probably be good if he is interested in being a Miami Dolphin. And then I think Jalen Waddle is awesome. Devon A-chan when he's on the field is one of the most electric ball carriers in the league. and I still think Mike McDaniel is like an awesome, awesome play caller. I just, that gets a little bit complicated because like how much of some of the issues where they having schematically were the quarterback, but this isn't a quarterback exercise. That kind of goes back to the offensive line.

It's kind of like, okay, the offensive line sucks, but they built it this exact way for this system. They were probably the weirdest team for me to rank. But I think because of some of the stability with the Jaguars, I actually probably would move them ahead of the Dolphins. I have the Dolphins at six. Oh. I have the dolphins higher than the Jags and significantly higher than some of the other teams that we're going to talk about. So I have the dolphins much higher on this list.

And I think it's because I'm weighing McDaniel in a very real way. So with the dolphins, the dolphins are hard to do in an exercise like this. Because if you're doing it, if you're looking at all the different factors and you're saying, okay, pass catchers, offensive line, play caller. And they all have equal weight. And you look at the talent on the Miami Dolphins offensive line, there's no way that they would be six. There's no way that you could justify that. But because of how they play and because of how the offense is structured, it mitigates the

offensive line to such a degree that I feel like you can push down how much you're weighing it and overindex the other factors. And that's why I have them so much higher. They were one of the most efficient passing games in the league when Tua played last year. And I think he played fine, but I think that's also a reminder that between Hill, Waddle, the way that John Hsu Smith played last year what A Chan gives you and how good McDaniel is at this one thing specifically. I think that it is actually a definitively good like borderline top 10 overall ecosystem even with some of the weaknesses that we're talking about. Well, that's where it gets complicated, right?

It's like I agree with all of that with McDaniel and like his value on that and making the offensive line look better than the names certainly are on paper. But that's also true because of the quarterback. And they, I think he only calls the offense this way. because of the quarterback. So if I'm trying to remove the quarterback from it, it's like, I think that's why they're the most complicated. That's why it's,

but that's the thing. It's like this exercise I'm supposed to, but they're the one team where you kind of can't. Yeah, I just think that if you look at the way that they've been able to consistently evolve in small ways, like I think it's absolutely capped out ceiling-wise. Like, no doubt about it.

It is capped out ceiling-wise. But I think over a 17-game sample, it's really hard for me to argue. that they have anything worse than like the 12th best offensive ecosystem in the league. Like overall, I still think that is the value that all the non-quarterback pieces in the aggregate are bringing to the table here.

Maybe this year I feel a little bit worse about it because of the Hill questions, etc. The offensive line is probably worse from a talent stat point. But I just think that the McDaniel plus the receiving talent and their ability to find efficiency in the passing game every single year, I can't put them any lower than six on them. on a list like this. Like we've seen Cohen do it one year.

And I like Brian Thomas Jr. But we know the Dolphins receivers are good. Man, I, that's why that see, I want to get there too. Because if we're talking specifically about the regular season, I probably agree. I think at least part of it for me too is I know that when this structure gets into the playoffs and this offensive line gets into the playoffs, not doing it for me. I don't trust it at all. And so maybe that's part of what's factoring in for me as well.

All right. So I want to get to the team that I have not mentioned on my list at all. yeah before we get deeper into your top 10. And that is the Las Vegas Raiders. I had them at 10. You had them at 7. I thought I was looking at this in an optimistic way when I had them at 10. How did you get all the way to 7 for the Raiders?

This feels like you doing with Chip Kelly what I was doing with Nick Cayley. Yes. That is literally it. That is one of the bets I'm making on my list is I think I like Chip Kelly. And I got to say looking at my 7, 8, and 9. with the, with the dolphins and the Jaguars, I probably could reshuffle these in any order and feel probably about the same about it. So I do want to say that.

But I do think with me, it's that I think Gentian Bowers, and we've talked about this a little bit before. I forgot about the Bowers fucking part of this too. It's not even the Kelly thing. It's Bowers. Bowers is easily the number one factor in this. I should have known.

He's the best player at the position already. Like it's him and Kittle. And I feel pretty good about saying that. And I think even though the offense isn't going to have to run through him the way it did last year, I think he can absolutely be that type of high volume player. But to me, and we talked about this a little bit on the live draft show, there's a little bit of value in Gentian Bowers being some of the best players at their position,

potentially, at positions that we don't typically associate with like, oh, this is, I think when we all think of the best offenses, it's like, oh, you have a pure number one receiver. But like the, the Raiders are doing it in a weird way, and I think that there's some value to that. And then even actually there's some value in that. I think for the most part, idiosyncrasy is. is probably more important or more relevant here than value. Probably, but like, I don't think I could get to double-digit pass catchers I would want before Brock Bowers.

Like, I really think that he's that special of a player. And then I really am making the bet on Chip Kelly. Like, I think that he's going to be good. And what's funny is that this is the one team on my list where I think I valued offensive line pretty high for a lot of teams. I still don't like this offensive line, but I just, the rest of it I felt good enough about. Which is so funny. because I think I feel pretty good about the potential upside of the offensive line,

and I still had them significantly lower. This is one, I said this in my notes, talking about Chip Kelly and the infrastructure part of this. This is the toughest projection on here. There's a chance that he's just really, really good from the start. Like, there's a chance that Chip, you're one of Chip Kelly is like you're one of what Todd Monkin looked like, or even maybe a little bit better even. And if that's the case, then there's a chance that you could push them up closer to the top five, depending on how you feel about the personnel.

I don't know how I feel about the personnel. I'm excited about how weird this past catching group can potentially look with Bowers, Jacobi Myers, Jack Bess. We've talked a lot about that in the moments since Gentie and Besh were drafted. The fact that this is going to be a strange collection of past catchers that I do think can end up being pretty good. I still think there's just a lot of projection in that. And with the offensive line, I think there's a chance

to the offensive line, there's the young pieces. I want to see what they look like with another year. Like I want to see what DJ Glaze and Jackson Powers Johnson and like that group looks like in a new offensive system with a real quarterback. I think that group can be solid. I don't know if it's going to be like a decidedly above average group. So I think it's the past catchers and the offensive line, I feel like are capped in terms of how good they can be.

And the play caller is still enough of a question. because we've not seen him do it in the NFL in a very long time where I, that's why I had them settle somewhere around 10. I could easily see if we did this exercise on January 1st, them being in the top five if Chip Kelly ends up becoming like a definitive needle mover early on here for the Raiders. I mean, and I think all of that's fair. Like, this is not a team where I'm like, your logic is insane to me. Like, I hear everything that you're saying. I guess part of it for me is that even if I have some issues with the offensive line, part of their problem last year is that they were the worst run game in the league last year probably.

And I think even if Chip Kelly isn't the savior we want him to be, the run game will be better. Like it would be impossible almost for it to not be better. So I think that's part of why I felt some degree of certain, not certainty, but safety, I guess. That's a good argument. Okay. Let's list off what we've done so far before we get into the rest of your top 10. So I'll start here. I had the Jets at 16, the Titans at 15, the Patriots at 14, the Browns at 13, the Chargers at 12, the Steelers at 11, the Raiders at 10, the Texans at 9.

And then I also had the Jags and Dolphins a little bit higher, but let's cut it off there because we have not talked about my team at number 8. So who did you have from your 16 to 8? So 16 had the Jets, same as you, Patriots 15, Browns 14, Texans 13, Titans 12, Chargers 11, Steelers, at 10. And then Jaguars, Dolphins and Raiders, 7, 8, 9. I might be a coward and, like, kind of shake that up a little bit, but that's pretty much the tier. All right.

We're going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back with the team that I had at number eight, who you had even higher than this, which is, again, I think a little bit surprising. All right. So we talked about the teams that I had at 7 and 6. I had the Jags at 6, the Jags at 7, the Dolphins at 6. I had the Colts at 8. You had the Colts higher than this.

I have the Colts a good bit higher than this actually. Wow. Okay. All right. All right. So I have the Colts at 8. And I think it's for this reason. I think that I'm just not a hundred percent sold on the structure and the play calling aspect of this and the architecture aspect of this. I think it's been good. And I think it's probably been held back by what we've seen from the quarterbacks and just how volatile that whole situation has been. I'm just not sure I'm all the way there is like this is definitively a really, really good situation. The quarterback is the problem.

So I think that's kind of where I land on that aspect of it. The offensive line has multiple new pieces that they're having to replace with young guys this year. And so I think that, I mean, we're talking about, you have Quentin Nelson and I think Bernard Raymond's a very good player at left tackle. Braden Smith, you know, obviously has been going through a lot in his personal life, but there's been, he's been hard to rely on in the same way that he was earlier in his career. and you have new starters at center and right guard.

Even if you feel good about the in-house young replacements, I still think there's a decent amount of uncertainty there. The one thing I feel really good about with this team is I think the past catchers are really good. I think Josh Downs is a real player. I think Pierce for what he is is really solid. I think Pittman for what he is is really solid. And I still have a candle lit for A.D. Mitchell because I believe that he is a very talented player who will get better with more time. But I think the questions along the offensive line and just some lingering

doubt about whether or not this is a definitively good offensive ecosystem independent of the quarterback is why I have them a little bit lower. I think all of that's fair. I think, I guess for me it was that I have a slightly higher degree of faith that I kind of like some of the young offensive line pieces. Like I think Bordellini is not going to be as good as Ryan Kelly, but I think he's actually showed some stuff when he had to play last year and I kind of

have, I think that he's going to be solid for them. And I don't think, I think when you have three other guys who are pro bowl caliber were players in Raymond Nelson and Brayden Smith that it can look fine. I also still have a lot of faith in Stuyken. Like I've, for as rocky as the passing offense has been the past few years, I've never watched it and been like, man, the play caller is really doing them wrong. I really think it has been like a quarterback trying to work through a lot of stuff. And he's not yet been able to do that.

So I do think this is one where I'm taking, I don't know if it's a leap of faith, but like I'm giving some benefit of the doubt to Stuyken for what the quarterback situation has been. And then honestly, the skill players are really good. Like, you still have like a top six running back. They spend a first round pick on a tight end, who I think is more dynamic than anyone they had at the position in the last like three years. And then the receiving core is, you know, there's not a star, but you've got, I think, three quality starters. And then maybe Mitchell is a cherry on top. So I had them at eight. And I think the part of the reason I had them at eight is I couldn't put them ahead of the Jags because of what Brian Thomas Jr. did last year and what we saw from

Liam Cohen. What Liam Cohen did as a play caller last year is as impressive, I think, as anything Stuyken has done in any of his years as a play caller. So I think that was part of it. Maybe the depth of the receiving core with the Colts is better. I think you would easily make that argument. And obviously, Travis Hunter is a question. I think that's why it was hard for me to put them ahead of the Jags, though, was the Cohen, Brian Thomas Jr. combination and just the faith I have in that. And again, we talked about why I have the dolphins a little bit higher. So if you had them at eight, you said that you had them significantly higher than eight. Where did you have the Colts ultimately on your list?

If I'm doing the math here correctly, five, I think. Wow. I think I have them at fifth. Yeah. And this is, it's funny you mentioned those two other teams in the Jaguars and the Dolphins. The ceiling for those two teams is significantly higher, right? Because of the play caller and the past catchers. I think the floor with Indy is significantly higher because I just love the offensive line way better than I like Miami's or Jacksonville's right now. And so I guess to me it's like if I inserted like, I don't know, quarterback 13, whoever you wanted to be into both of these offenses, I just feel like you could get a more stable product in Indy, even if the ceiling is higher for those two other spots.

I think that's a good way of thinking about it. I think if you're looking at my list, the ceiling plays pretty heavily into how I ended up ranking these teams right or wrong. So I think you pushing forward the offense. line and the floor and me pushing forward the play caller pass catchers and the ceiling, I do think explains a little bit of the separation in the list that we have. Yeah, I wanted something I felt just a little bit more. It just felt like a warm blanket.

It felt kind of comfy with it. Whereas like I do think if you get the fireworks show from those other offenses, I'm going to look like an idiot. All right. So I had the Colts at 8. You had the Colts at 5. Who is the team you had at 6 that was right ahead of the Raiders? that is where I have the Kansas City Chiefs.

And again, let's talk about this. If a lot of my thing is going to be like getting iffy with the offensive line, I still have a lot of questions about this offensive line. And they've got some good players, obviously, like, Creed Humphrey is really good. Trey Smith, they brought back,

but like Taylor to me is still a question of right tackle. I don't really love more as a left tackle option. And I know that like they got Simmons and maybe that can fix it for them. But I still don't. feel great about a whole lot of that. And then even though we just did the show about the lingering questions where I like the receiver core, I still don't know if there's a star and it's not like great to me. So I, that's why I couldn't quite put them at like fourth or something like that.

I had them third. Okay. And I think part of the reason I have the rest of the list of my. Part of the reason I had them that high. And part of the reason I had them a couple spots ahead of the teams that we're going to talk about here that round out my top five. is that I just don't think we can discount what Andy Reid has been for so long. Like, right?

I think it's easy to forget and it's easy to take for granted what Andy Reid is at this stage. But I think that Andy Reid is still one of the best play callers in the NFL full stop and has shown an ability to do that year after year after year with different personnel, with different sorts of offenses. And so I don't want to be numb to how much of a difference maker he is when making a list like this. I think that because of the left tackle situation last year, we have overstated the overall quality of what the offensive line is. And I know that there are two spots you're switching out this year because of the tuning trade.

I'm more than willing to admit that. But if they can find a solution at left tackle between Moore and Simmons, no matter who it is, right? We get more for the first four games. We get Simmons for the last 13 games. We get solid left tackle play for a majority of the year. And you have those other three guys. I probably feel a little bit better about Taylor than you do,

even though obviously the interior guys are better. I think there is an outcome where the left guard is really the spot we're most worried about with the Chief's offensive line. That's fine. If that's the biggest problem, then the offensive line isn't like a definitive negative. And after going back and watching the past catchers, when we were doing that lingering questions show yesterday,

I think the Rashir has the potential to be a star. And I think if you're rounding that out with Travis Kelsey, even at this stage of his career, Hollywood Brown is staying healthy and then worthy truly being able to be what he's supposed to be within that offense, I think that the past catching group

can be a definitive positive when at times over the last couple of years it's been a definitive negative. And I think the lingering kind of stench of that is coloring potentially how we're thinking about this overall. I think the worthy thing is probably why I struggle to get there as much. And I think he'll be a nice role player

for them. I just, for me, it's hard to see the world where he is like a true impact star level player. I think that's hard for me to get there. But he doesn't need to be, right? If like Rishi Rice is a real guy and you have Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelsey still, do you need Xavier Worthy to be a star level player? Probably not, but like, what is Travis Kelsey really at this point? Like I think that, I think I just have, even though I think the past catching core is going to be good. I think I probably just don't quite see the same ceiling with it, even though it's obviously going to be better than last year. And then the last factor to me, too, is like,

I don't know if the run game is going to be any better. Like, that's kind of where I get. That's the biggest issue I have. I think that's part of this, is that I probably am not thinking about the run game enough as I build this. And I think that's probably the thing I'm ignoring with the issue. But even on a down-to-down basis, and I know Tuney's gone, the run game is still efficient last year

and has been efficient over the last couple years, even if it's not explosive. So I think a run game that you can rely on a little bit down to down combined with what this past catching group and passing game period can look like if things break correctly and they stay healthy. I just think that the upside is still very real for this group overall, even outside of the quarterback, in a way that we just weren't able to see last year because they couldn't stay healthy. That's fair. I might be underrating them a little bit. And maybe I'm not giving Andy Reed his credit. I just.

I guess for me it really is like I feel like the Kelsey thing is only going to get worse. And then I'm probably not as high as worthy as you are. I think that's probably the... I'm not high on him. I just think that he can be a role player if the other guys are involved. I think it's like, I think it's less that I think that you're super high on him and more that he is the exact kind of player who frustrates the shit out of me, even if he's kind of useful. I just think that he's the third most important pass catcher on the team or like even like 3B with Hollywood Brown.

that is a place you can easily live as an NFL offense. And again, maybe I'm talking myself into what Rice looked like over those first three games a little bit too much. But I do think that he can absolutely be the best receiver on a really, really good supporting cast. I'm with you on Rice. I definitely am. So I'm probably being too much of like a negative Nancy about the Chief Pass Catchers. But there's just something about it that it scares me from putting them like top three. They're going to be good, but just top three, I struggled.

All right. So let's dig into our top fives here. Derek, you had the Colts at five. So that means we have not heard your number four. I'll start with my number five. And now, now I'm like kind of going back and forth about this. I think you could flip four and five easily with the list that I have right here.

I think that I would still put the chiefs about both of these teams in the way that I did. I had the bills at five. Oh, I had them higher. I think it's the past catchers part of this. Like, who's the best pass catcher on the Bills? Probably Khalil Shakir, but who's like the worst guy if you have five guys out there? That was kind of where I landed. That's a good argument.

That's a good argument. This is hard. I think that my top five was really, really difficult. Because, again, I think that there is at least one weakness among all of these teams. I think with the bills to me, it's just that who is the guy that like, if you need a receiver to make a play in a huge moment, do they have that guy? And I just don't know who that guy is. It's a well-rounded group. I think it's a group that the construction of it makes sense.

I just feel like the lack of an actual difference-making pass catcher, even compared to like a Rishi Rice level player, that's why I have them a tiny bit lower. Even if I think the offensive line and pass protection is arguably the best in the league. and I think that Joe Brady has done a very good job since ascending to that role. That's honestly really fair. And I think part of it might be clouded for me because when I'm thinking of the bill's offense as a whole, I'm like, well, they're not going to struggle to get explosives. Because the quarterback figured out. But it's supposed to be, I'm supposed to be trying to pull the quarterback out of it. And I do think when you do that, there really isn't a guy.

I guess part of it too is maybe I have a slightly, I don't know how you feel about it, but I probably have a slightly higher degree of faith that Coleman is going to be. something more in year two than maybe you do. That's a good point. That's a good point. That's a good thing to bring up. If you're projecting some real development for Keon Coleman, I think that you can push the bills higher on a list like this. Did you see what he said today, by the way, about his rookie season?

No, I'm a little upset about the, I'm a little upset that I didn't. He was like, I think they were talking about like, he was talking about watching his rookie film and he was like, that shit was trash. I just love him, dude. I just want him to be good so bad. You know what?

I kind of forgot about him as I was having this conversation with myself. So I think you could probably push them a little bit higher. Again, I think all of these teams are kind of jumbled up here in the top five. It was just the past catchers that had them a little bit lower for me, even if I think that the past protection, just the everything about the past protection, the plan, the players, everything I think is up near the top of the league. And I think that the run game, I mean, you have to talk about that

when talking about the support that Josh Allen has. Like their ability to just run the ball 40 times in a game if they need to, that's not something that a lot of these other teams can tap into. And as I say that now, I think I might have the bills a little bit too well. And I think that's why I had them much higher. Is that like, because for all these other teams, like, and I agree that it's hard to see the ceiling here compared to some of these other teams. But for me, when I think about like a top five offensive line in the NFL, one of the best run games that could run the ball, like you said, 40 times if they want to. And I do think Joe Brady has really become something as a play call. or like I just, to me, it felt like the floor was so, so high for them that if I'm doing,

what is the percentage chance that they'll be good? It is extremely high in Buffalo to me. All right. I'm amending my list officially. I'm putting the bills at four. Okay. Okay. I'm putting the bills at four.

Where did you have them? If I had them at four, where did you have the bills? I had them at two. Yeah. I can understand the argument for that. Again, I think that it's the past catcher thing that pushes them down a little bit lower. And when we get to my number two team, I think you'll see. see the difference in how I'm talking about this kind of stuff.

But I think at four is probably where I feel a little bit better about the bills, even with some of the bass catcher concerns. And so that's what, and when you hear the team I had that I was like, I was back and forth with, I think you're going to say, like, they don't have any high level pass catchers either. It was between them and the Broncos for me. And the reason that I had the Broncos a smidge higher is because I think that you can

make an argument they have the best past protecting group in the league last year. And I do think that I was so incorrectly down on Sean Payton heading into last year that I'm almost over-correcting in my belief of like what Sean Payton still has left in the tank. And I think that's why initially I had them ahead of the bills. But I think five for the Broncos, which is now where I have them after amending the list, I think that's right. I feel they're right ahead of the dolphins right behind the bills. I think that is the correct place to put the Broncos.

I think that's fair because, you know, the run game is a little bit worse, but they probably have the best pass catcher of any of them. Like, it's at least single best pass catcher. Three. Okay. So I had them also pretty high. All right. So you had the Colts at five.

Who'd you have at four? The Bengals. And they are another team. We're like, the offensive line isn't good. But I did, the more I looked at it, I don't think they're going to be a good offensive line.

But a Fairchild is literally anything better than what they got at left guard. that could be something. And I really think Amarius Mims when he's healthy is going to be like a star. And so I think I'm projecting a little bit here, but I felt okay about it for that. And then Jamar Jason T. Higgins, what am I supposed to say?

That's why I had the mid two. I know the offensive line isn't good. I had the Bengals at two. And it's just because going through all of these, and again, I think I've probably weighted the pass catchers a little higher than you have. I think the other reason that I had the Bengals at two is that I do believe that the offensive staff

whether it was Calhannon and Taylor a couple years ago or now Dan Pitcher and Taylor. I think that they've actually done a really good job at iterating every year, folding in new stuff. This is not a scheme that feels like static or stale, even if they want to be a little bit more static than most other teams in the league because of the way the quarterback wants to play. So I actually think that is a definitive positive. I don't think he's a top five play caller as good as like that top top tier of guys. but I think they've done a better job than the outside perception would lend you to believe over the last few years. And I'm with you on the offensive line. It may not be great.

It's good enough. It's going to be good enough when you're throwing to those two guys on the outside. The combination of Higgins and Chase and just having Chase, period, I just don't, I can't put them any lower than that. Like after what those two guys were when they were on the field last year, I cannot put them any. lower than that. I probably am putting them too low because those two alone just kind of make you a pretty special unit. And then actually the playcaller thing I think is a really good point because I think when I was doing this exercise, for me, they were one of the few teams in a similar light to the dolphins, but obviously in a much better way where it was like really hard for me to remove the quarterback

from the scheme. But at the same time, you make a good point that like some of the nitty gritty of how they are changing is obviously not burroughs doing, even if like the general structure of how they do things is probably Burroughs doing. But like the nitty gritty and the changes they make have been really good. And I probably didn't give the coaching staff as much credit as I should have. So me having them at four maybe is a little bit. I might move them to three over Denver. I might do that. Okay. So you had Denver at three. So let's talk about Denver. I had the Broncos at five. You had the, you had Denver at three. And I, even that's, there's a little bit of a gap there. And if you pump them back to four, we're essentially on the same level. I think the fact

that both of us felt very good about putting the Broncos in the top five, just like pencil it in, don't even think about it. I think that says a lot about our perception of what the Broncos are now and our perception of what the Broncos were a year ago. It definitely does. And to me, it's just the offensive line, dude. I really did not think, and obviously they were lucky a little bit last year that they were so healthy, right? And they probably won't be this year. But for them to go from what had been like a kind of mediocre unit for the past few years and then become the best, past blocking unit in the league last year. And honestly, they were a decent run blocking unit.

The backs just weren't good enough. And I do think that is part of my calculus here too, is that them adding Harvey is going to do something, maybe estimate takes a step, maybe that does something. They just signed JK Dobbins today. So they had better backs than they did a year ago. I don't know how much that moves me, but I'm hoping that Harvey does anything for them. And then they even at tight end, that was one of their biggest issues, right? And they signed like, I don't love Evan Ingram, but that's definitely better than what

they were doing last year at the position. So like there's just, I feel like they made the right upgrades. Maybe Sean Payton is right that Pat Bryant can be something for them and that helps them out a little bit. And then to me, I think why I had them so high as I think Sean Payton is like, at minimum, the third best play caller in the conference and probably higher than that for me. Yeah. I think that that's why I had them as high as they did, as high as I did. That's why I was like, yeah, I'm absolutely going to put them in the top five. And again, initially I had them ahead of the bills. I just think that Sean Payton did such a great job last year. And I think that, you know, it's not. It's not when you're looking at some of these other offenses, the dolphins are a great example,

okay? When you're looking at the dolphins and you're trying to articulate what the play caller is doing, it's very easy, right? Because it's extreme, it's loud. If you're trying to tell, if I'm trying to explain to my wife why Mike McDaniel is very good at what he's doing while we're watching a dolphins game, I think it's easy to have that conversation. It's going to last 27 seconds before she tells me she doesn't care, but it's going to be easy

when we're doing it. If you're doing about the Broncos, it's harder to do that. It's harder to articulate and point out why Sean Payton is doing a really good job and like building this offense. But the past protection and just how solid they are, the rules, how buttoned up everything feels, the quieter ways you feel how put together everything is on that side of the ball. I think that they do that about as well as any team in the AFC or any team in the league does right now. You feel how just crossing the T's and dotting the eyes and just having every little detail is correct. You feel that when you watch the Broncos independent of the individual talent that they have on that unit. It's that.

And then by the end of the season, it was so obvious to me that Peyton had such a good idea for what was the best way to use all of these players. What they were doing with Marvin Mims. The expression of Marvin Mims is 100% the best example of that. Mims going from, oh, we need him to be a deep guy to, you know, what, screw that, he's going to be kind of our gadget guy and we're going to use him that way. I think that was really important for them. And then them even like, the way that they found ways to like make Nate Adkins like a very useful blocker for them out in space with some of their RPO stuff, them as the season got

on, went on sprinting out Bo Nixmore because they realized that that was something he was comfortable with. It's just like, the more they got time together, the more Sean Payton realized like, okay, what is the best way to use all of these guys? and I think when you even add more pieces like Ingram like Harvey, I think that's only going to get better. Yeah, I totally agree. I think that's a great way to put it.

And I think that's a well articulated way of understanding why I was so excited about that group by the end and why I think that they're a real difference-making piece in an exercise like this. So this means we both had the same team at number one. The only reason that I'm a little bit surprised by this is that I thought there might be part of you deep in your soul that was going to put the Ravens a little bit lower

because you didn't want something like this to take away any credit from Lamar Jackson. I think there is a past version of me that exists that probably would have done something like that. But then when I was really thinking about the exercise, I was like, okay, the Ravens were a historically insane offense last year. Even the best quarterbacks need a pretty good surrounding cast around them to get there.

And so I felt no sure. shame in being like, yeah, man, like the play caller's awesome. Henry is a very special running back. And they don't, I think going into this year, they don't have like a bad pass catcher that you feel putting out there. Like the fact that they're going to have flowers, Bateman who I think took a step last year. And then if Nuke gives them anything, that's like, it's a pretty good unit where you don't feel bad about anyone out there. Do you know that Mark Andrews led the NFL and EPA per target last year for players with 50 plus targets? I did not know that. in my mind he's still fumbling, so it's, you know, it hurts a little bit.

And again, I think that's EPA as a commentary on the health of the passing game overall. The fact that Bateman and Andrews are up near the top of the league is as much of a commentary on Todd Malkin and Lamar Jackson as it is those individual players. But the fact that a throw to Mark Andrews was still the most valuable thing you could do to a highly targeted player in the league last year, even if Mark Andrews is on the backside of his career, still a very good player, still a definitive positive for a passing offense, and that's combined with the other guys. I think that it's an imperfect group, but I think that in totality, when you're taking all the pieces together, it's a very good group, and I still think that

Zay is like really, really good. He has limitations, but I think, again, he can easily be the most important, impactful pass catcher on a Super Bowl winning sort of offense. That I can, exactly, there's no superstar here, right? I mean, you could argue Henry is, but like, terms of the past catchers, it's like, okay, Zay Flowers is kind of a role player, Bateman's kind of a role player, DeAndre Hopkins is kind of a role player. But they all compliment each other really well. And Mark Andrews is really good over the middle. And we haven't even mentioned Isaiah likely, who I think probably had his best season last year. Like it's just, they have so many different ways that they can attack you. And the offensive line isn't elite. But I think like

the interior is fine. And maybe I'm baking in, you know, the fact that Voorhees might look okay. and I'm hoping that Roger Rosengarten at right tackle takes a step, but like the offensive line is going to be good enough. The fact that we weren't talking about him is the best thing you can say about Roger Rosengarten last year. The two numbers I'll throw out about the offensive line. Lamar was dead last in quick pressure rate that he faced last season.

Dead last in the NFL with an offensive line that so many people, myself at times included, were just losing our minds about last summer. And the fact that it turned out to be a, a decidedly good group and a decided positive for the offense. It's very funny in retrospect. And the other thing is, he and Burrow had virtually the same pressure rate that they faced last year.

Burrow gets rid of the ball at a top three rate in terms of how fast it's coming out. Lamar is at a bottom three rate. It's not a negative. It's just how Lamar plays. The fact that they had the same pressure rate last year, I think speaks to the quality of those two offensive lines compared to one another. And that's before we even get to Monkin, who I think, has done a fantastic job.

Mangan has, if he was just what he was in the first year as a play caller, like I would still probably have the Ravens top three. But he got even better last year in terms of like really expanding their dropback game and really like even opening up the run game, obviously getting Henry really helped with that. But like they just, he only got better as a play caller and he was already good. I'm like over the moon excited for what year three of it might look like. We talked about this when we had the MVP discussion. but Lamar led the league last year

and the percentage of his throws that were to wide open targets. Some of that is Lamar's timing and decision-making. Some of that is the separation the receivers are creating. But some of it is also what the offensive play caller is doing. And I think he did a really, really good job last season. So when you combine Monkin, the fact that the offensive line, when it comes to the actual results, even if on paper they're not the best group, is a very good unit.

You combine it with a well-rounding group of pass catchers and oh yeah, Derek Henry plays for this team, it's pretty easy to get to a spot where the Ravens are number one. Exactly. Like they have, you know, mostly the other teams have a star player receiver, but they've got it at running back. And then just no bad players, good offensive line, good play caller,

checking every box. All right. Let's read this off. I'm going to go from 16 to 1 for me. I have the Jets at 16, the Titans at 15, the Patriots at 14, the Browns at 13, the Chargers at 12, the Steelers at 11, the Raiders at 10, the Texans at 9. I already feel

awful about that. The Colts at eight, the Jags at seven, the Dolphins at six, the Broncos at five, the Bills at four, the Chiefs at three, the Bengals at two, the Ravens at one. Okay, I'll go through mine here. Also, Jets at 16, which is very funny. There were very few that we got on the dot, but Jets first and last, we got right on the dot. So Jets at 16, Patriots at 15, Browns at 14, Texans at 13 Titans at 12 Chargers 11 Steelers at 10

I'm going to be a coward and say Jaguars, Dolphins, Raiders is 7, 8, and 9 in some horrible order and then for me it was the Chiefs and then the Colts at 5 Bengals at 4, Broncos at 3 Bills at 2

and Ravens at number 1 So I think the Texans is the team were furthest to weigh about I had them at 9, you had them at 13 and I think the Colts are number two. Yeah, it's funny that they're both the AFC South, man. And even the Jaguars, like you kind of had to get me there and get the whole AFC South. Even the Titans, I think I was probably ended up a little bit more.

That was probably our most contentious division, actually, is the AFC South. I definitely agree with that. I think the Titans, you sold me a little bit, though. I think the path of the offensive line for the Titans is a little bit cleaner than it is for some of the other teams in that range. So if I had to do it over again, I think I'd, probably feel pretty good about putting the Titans ahead of the Patriots. And that would mean that we're a little bit closer

on the Titans and some of those other teams. Yeah, that's a good question before we get out. Who is the team that you would probably want to most move based off of some of the discussions that we had? To me, it's probably the Jaguars. I think I was probably a little bit too low in having them. I think initially at nine, I probably would move them closer to like seven

and put them at the top of that tier. The Titans are in that conversation for me. I want to say the Raiders. The fact that you are so much more bullish on the Raiders than I was, it bums me out a little bit because I find myself wanting to be excited about the Raiders. And so the fact that you were so much higher on them than me, I'm coming away from it with like a little bit of FOMO because I think being excited about the Raiders right now is fun. So I think that's what I pry through in there.

And I think the Texans moving them down a little bit just because I fully understand how stupid this can potentially look. Again, you're just in something like this. you're choosing to make a small series of bets because it would be wholly uninteresting if you weren't. And so the Texans infrastructure just being significantly better this year is a bet that I'm making. But it's a bet on a first year play caller and it's just really hard to feel good about those. So the Texans being as high as I have them, I think that's one that I can have a little bit of egg in my face when this is all over. I think the Texans might be the team that one of us for sure is going to look stupid. I don't know who it's going to be, but it's going to be one of us.

bank on me. Yeah, I probably, I probably bet on me. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be recording another mailbag for Monday. And then we'll be back to our regularly scheduled programming. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. That is going to be the offseason schedule that we've got for at least the next few weeks.

Obviously, July 4th is a holiday week. We can talk about that when we get there. But be on the lookout for the Monday mailbag, followed by episodes on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday for the next few weeks. Very excited about getting back to that. We will do the NFC version of this show next week. Not sure exactly which day, but it will be coming along with one more lingering question show, at least that we are going to knock out.

For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. Enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you soon.