The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - An Idiot's GUIDE to the 2026 NFL Draft

Episode Date: March 20, 2026

We didn't say Robert Mays is an idiot. He said it himself! At least when it comes to the NFL Draft class at this stage of the calendar. Dane Brugler and Dave Helman help bring him up to speed on this ...episode of The Athletic Football Show.Connect with The Athletic Football ShowYT: https://www.youtube.com/@TAFootballShowPodcasts: https://podfollow.com/the-athletic-football-show/viewX: https://x.com/TA_FootballShowIG: https://www.instagram.com/tafootballshowTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tafootballshowDiscord: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowBuy our merch! http://theathletic.lnk.to/tafsmerchCall us: 847-448-0701Email us: athleticfootballshow@gmail.comHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerVideo Producer: Katy DuffyAudio Producer: Michael BellerSocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Kicking off our draft coverage today. Obviously, Building the Beast has been going all the way through the college football season, but I'm kicking off my draft coverage today. This is our first of a month full of draft-centric shows here on the Athletic Football Show. We've done the show in the past, and I always enjoy doing it because I have the person who probably knows the most about the NFL draft to teach me about each individual class as
Starting point is 00:00:28 we turn the page from free agency. So that's what we're doing today. Today is the Idiot's Guide to the 2026 NFL draft. I am the idiot. And Dane is here, along with our buddy Dave Hellman, to help teach me about what this draft looks like. What does it look like at the top? What sort of high-end top-10 prospects will be talking about?
Starting point is 00:00:46 This is a very unique class for that. All the different positions, where are the strengths, where are the weaknesses? What is a good spot to be looking for in the first couple rounds? What is a bad spot to be looking for in the top 100? We had all of those conversations today. these were kind of precursors to deeper discussions we'll have about this class overall, about how this class compares historically, about the individual positions in this class on specific shows over the next month.
Starting point is 00:01:12 But this to me feels like an introduction to both this class and our coverage. And I'm thrilled to have Dane and Dave be a part of that. So let's get to The Idiot's Guide to the 2026 NFL draft right now. It's about that time. It's usually just before or just after the NCAA. double a tournament kicks off every year. We shift our gaze to the NFL draft full time on the athletic football show. And each year, I'm pretty open about the fact that I come a little bit later to this process
Starting point is 00:01:46 than the people who are doing it every single day. And so many of the years where we've kicked off our draft coverage, we've started it with what we call an idiot's guide to the NFL draft. And every year, I am that idiot. And so that's what we're doing today. We're going to have our guys, Dane Bruegler, and Dave Hellman, from Building the Beas. here to help me learn a little bit more about the NFL draft before we dive full scale into it. Dan, it's good to be back with you, buddy.
Starting point is 00:02:13 I always really look forward to this pod because you bring a blank slate kind of perspective to this conversation, and that makes it really fun. Yeah, this is, it's just a really crazy part of the calendar when we come to the draft with pro days and just trying to get everything in the right spot. Like it's just a different type of March Madness. But so this is a really fresh perspective to come to this pod, kind of hitting the bare bones, a 30,000 foot view, however you want to phrase it.
Starting point is 00:02:44 I always enjoy having this conversation. My knowledge is mostly rooted in what I have learned listening to building the beast over the course of the year. Like that is the amount of draft coverage that I engage with during the course of the season. I don't watch much college football. Again, I'm very open about that. And so I'm aware of kind of what the contour
Starting point is 00:03:03 of the class look like. But I'm sure there are plenty of people that if they don't listen to Building the Beast, which is a mistake, but you should, that are not full-time draft gurus or are not people that are thinking about the draft from the middle of last season, unless you're like a Jets fan, you probably have not been looking at the draft prospects since December, all of you. So we're going to take today just to kind of give a broad overview about what this class looks like, feels like some of the strengths, some of the weaknesses. and Dan, you had a couple, kind of like five or six broader points that you wanted to bring to this that we're going to run through.
Starting point is 00:03:36 So let's just start with those. And this is one that has come up a lot as we were kind of figuring out what our draft coverage was going to look like. Over the next month, we were talking about this yesterday, Dave. Just this idea that this is one of those years where don't overthink it. Just take the best player that's there. It doesn't necessarily have to be at a premium position. It doesn't have to be somebody that would check every single box as a top 10 pick previously. some of that Dane is driven by the talent that's available in this draft,
Starting point is 00:04:03 but some of it is driven by where the best players are available in this draft and which positions they play. Currently really fascinated by the life cycle of the NFL draft narrative because we talk about the draft for so long and it has become such an industry unto itself that you can be having these conversations like 12 months out of the year. And yet we as an NFL community, still have collective amnesia
Starting point is 00:04:31 where we can say like all through the fall look this is the state of the draft class this is this is probably not going to be as good of a quarterback draft as we thought it was going to be the star power in the top 10 15 picks is not your ideal version of things I mean I can go find an episode of Building the Beast from October where Dane asked me what the top
Starting point is 00:04:53 10 would look like and I just drew like a 20 second blank like I had no idea what to say but here we are in mid-March and everybody if you're not following during football season everybody's part of this now like everybody's doing draft content everybody's watching tape and catching up and all the same old adages and idioms are coming into play and people are arguing about positional value and high-end production and traits and we seem to have forgotten everything we said about this six months ago and so I'm I'm very interested by that and I'm interested in in trying to find common ground where it's like, hey, we have to work within the parameters of what this draft class is. Not to get too far off the point, but it is always interesting to me how the draft narratives take shape and it's hard to keep up with them. You know, I'm not on Twitter all that much, but I did the other day tweet, Denzel Boston,
Starting point is 00:05:51 his pro day and how good he looked, the three cone was outstanding, wide receiver from Washington, Robert, by the way. Thank you. Yeah, no, we're getting there. The first round guys I'm familiar with, I did my home before we started this show. But I tweeted about his pro day, and apparently he's a faller. Like, he's a mid-second rounder. Like, it's hard to keep up with how just the general public and fans, you know, what the draft narratives are.
Starting point is 00:06:18 But I think, you know, Robert, like you mentioned how just draft the good players, like, that's going to be the theme of this top 10. And we can get so caught up in upside chasing traits, really maximizing position value. And look, I get it. Position value matters. But I think it matters more so from a contract standpoint, how the money works. We talked about this a lot with Brock Bowers, right, when he was coming out, one of the top five players in that draft.
Starting point is 00:06:48 But if he draft him top seven, top eight, he's immediately a top five paid tight end in the league. And so is that the right way to allocate your resources? But for the most part, I'm okay with the term position value, just going away. I want it to go away and I want to replace it with impact value. To me, that is the right way to look at this conversation. Is it more important to focus on the position or more important to focus on the impact? And so every team, every roster is at a different phase, a different part of their evolution. So it's different for everybody.
Starting point is 00:07:24 One positional value is not the same for the next team. And so the Titans, for example, at four, they're looking at their roster and their way of maxing out their, what they have is going to be different from another team. And so the impact value, to me, that matters more so than any focus we put on the positional value. The only pushback I'd have on that is I do think that the impact can be directly correlated to the position in certain situations.
Starting point is 00:07:52 right? Like Ashen Gentie is the best example of this to me. Ash and Genti, there's a chance he's the right pick for the Raiders in a couple years. But because the offensive infrastructure around him wasn't built up enough to get the most out of a player like Ashton Genti, you're not going to be able to realize the full impact of what Ashton Genti could have been over the last couple years. And so I think that's some positions are more reliant on others than some positions are more reliant on the positions around them. Like that's just the reality of the situation. I think running back can be that. But overall, I think that makes, I think that's totally fair.
Starting point is 00:08:26 I think my, I come back to two different points I want to hit with this. One, let's just talk about what this means in relation to the players that we're discussing, right? So Arval Reese is at the top of your top 100. That's somebody who, to whom I don't think this really applies, right? That's somebody where there are a lot of traits. He's going to give you pass rush juice. Like that's somebody that independent of our concerns about oppositional value is probably a worthwhile top player in any draft. And if he goes number two, I don't think anybody would blink.
Starting point is 00:08:52 after that, and even when the conversations you guys have had about like, is Sunny Stiles legitimately the second best player in the draft should he go number two overall? Is Jeremiah Love going to be a top five pick? And it seems like we're drifting further and further toward that. Caleb Downs is probably not somebody that would profile as a top 10 pick and a lot of other drafts, but in this one, Dane, he might be. And so I think those are the guys, that's kind of what I want to focus on first. Who are the guys we're talking about here?
Starting point is 00:09:16 And why should they be exceptions to the way that we typically think about this stuff? Yeah, and I think, yeah, you hit on, I think, some of those key guys, the Ohio State guys, Sonny Stiles, a linebacker, Caleb Downs at safety. Caleb Downs is really the, probably the biggest wild card of the top 10, because you can make a case that he should go to. You can make a case that maybe he should fall to 10 or beyond. Like, it's just part of it is the position he plays. Part of it is he doesn't have these overwhelming physical traits. The size is average. The speed, the athleticism is good, but he didn't test at the combine, and I don't know if he'll test at the pro day.
Starting point is 00:09:57 And, you know, it's part of a lot of teams look at this and say, you know, we're just, we're not comfortable drafting a safety in the top 10. That's just how several teams operate. But when you watch a tape, you see just this monster player who, part of it is how smart he is and just a different ways that, I mean, he sees the field like a chessboard. and he's one step ahead of you at every turn. And he did this sense his freshman year at Alabama, played for three different defensive coordinators this past year, Matt Patricia, defense coordinator Ohio State. And all the different disguises and all the different ways they would use him,
Starting point is 00:10:35 it unlocked everything for that, for that defense. Ohio State had arguably the number one defense in all of college football this past year. And a big part of that, and look, Sunny Stiles, R.V.R.V.R.R.R.R.R.R.R.R.R.R. , there are a lot of Ohio State defensive players. that are going to be drafted top 50, top 60 in this draft. But Caleb Downs was the thing that unlocked all of that. And so I think every team in the top 10, top 12, would love to have Galeb Downs,
Starting point is 00:10:59 whether or not that's the right resource to take him top 10, that's more of the discussion that they're having at this point. Just to play this out right now, a lot of the beats we're going to hit here are beats that we're going to explore further in actual shows over the next month. You're going to hear echoes of this stuff for things that we're going to blow out.
Starting point is 00:11:17 But the Caleb Downs thing specifically, I feel like when we're talking about players like this, it can be useful to just look at historical comps because when you're making outlier decisions, what other outliers have there been and where can we kind of learn lessons from this thing? And the Caleb Downs thing is so interesting for me just from like, again, my very initial thoughts on this.
Starting point is 00:11:35 Because when you look at this idea of just take the good players independent of positional value, that can be a mixed bag because I think we overrate our ability to understand who the good players are. That's the problem with some of that stuff. Right? And so it can go either way. Like the best, the most recent example of this is they draft where the Lions took Jamir Gibbs and Jack Campbell and people were freaking the fuck out.
Starting point is 00:11:55 And then now a couple of years later looks pretty good, right? Like those are good players. It's better to have good players. Quentin Nelson's a great example of this. Can you pick a guard with a sixth overall pick? You can't if he's as good as Quinn Nelson. That's something you can easily do. But there are other examples of this on the other side.
Starting point is 00:12:11 Like Devin Bush has resurrected his career, but Devin Bush was a top 10 pick at linebacker. and I think he was one of those guys. Like, that's just a good player. That did not work out for the Steelers, especially when you consider the trade-up. Jeff Akuta, how many more guys in the last decade have been said, oh, yeah, that's just, that guy's just good. Like, he's going to be in the league for 10 years than Jeff Akuda was.
Starting point is 00:12:31 Kyle Pitts, you know, being a top five pick, he's a player that's worth franchising for the Falcons, but if you go back and do that draft over again, he would not be taken. And the last guy I would throw out when I just think about the pre-draft narrative around him, 10-year starter solid as can be he's worth taking in the first round
Starting point is 00:12:49 that's what we said about Zion Johnson that's exactly what the conversation was around Zion Johnson and it's safety specifically This is a wet blanket geez okay well I'm saying a lot of names of a lot of guys I really liked at the time
Starting point is 00:13:01 but I think that's part of the problem with this type of thinking is that is that we think that and Aaron Curry is the best example of this ever we don't have to go back all the way that's 15 years ago that's the best example ever where it's like this is the safe
Starting point is 00:13:14 player in the draft. He's a top five pick and it was a no-go. With Caleb Down specifically, it was interesting to me because I think two other guys you'd throw in here, and this is an example on the other side where just take the good players independent of value, these guys fell too far, Derwin and Kyle Hamilton. Those were top 10 players in their drafts. They went outside of the top 12 and I think both of them there's been some regret in retrospect. But the difference to me, again, just first glance, Derwin and Kyle Hamilton are physical outliers at the position. So with Caleb Downs, Dan, it feels like you're going to be making a different sort of bet
Starting point is 00:13:49 even to some of these other super high-end safety prospects that we've seen over the last 10 years. Yeah, and that's fair. But I think you could also look at, if you look at Darwin James and Caleb Downs and you just watch their college tape and focus on them as prospects, you can come away saying Caleb Downs is a better prospect, even though he isn't the physical doesn't have some of the physical traits that Durwin brings to the table. And part of that is the mental part of it is
Starting point is 00:14:18 I mean Caleb Downs is an elite tackler he can play close to line of scrimmage just the urgency, the intelligence, the toughness, all of that. Like I said, every team is going to want a Caleb Downs. It's a matter of where is, where do we feel comfortable drafting him? And, you know, part of it is
Starting point is 00:14:38 in some other drafts, they've been a little bit deeper, and especially in the top half, top 15, top 20. So instead of drafting our safety here, let's go chase this traitsy pass rusher or this offensive tackle that shows a lot of promise. This draft, it's a little, we don't have as many first round grades. It's not as deep in that top 10, top 15, not as many blue chippers.
Starting point is 00:15:03 So I think more teams will be okay saying, you know what? like yeah, Caleb Downs is maybe not a quote unquote elite physical prospect, but we feel good with him coming in, being a starter from day one, and upgrading the back end of our defense. And I think there's value in that. And so I think the relationship to the overall class and just how it's not a top heavy group, that will affect the decision making about where to take these guys as much as anything.
Starting point is 00:15:32 The other thing I would mention, Robert, is just, and no player is bus proof, right? I completely get that and that's just baked into all of this. But this is a year where, like we said, I mean, you listed a few guys, but I have Dane's top 100 pulled up in front of me. I'm just looking through the top of it. Going down the list of the first 12 to 15 players,
Starting point is 00:15:56 you can poke holes in pretty much every single prospect. I would say Fernando Mendoza, he's not a perfect quarterback prospect, but he's more than good enough to be the top guy. off the board. And then other than that, I would say Jeremiah Love is the prospect with the least amount of questions or like the least amount of projection for me. And then everybody else between positional value and just
Starting point is 00:16:19 holes in their game, there aren't that many sure bets. And so if this is a year where let's even say like Caleb Downs doesn't live up to the hype, this is a year where I think you could be more comfortable making that bet than in other years. Because I think you're making a pretty big gamble with a lot of these big time picks this year, which makes it scary but also fun. You have to be okay with the double
Starting point is 00:16:44 instead of we want to hit the home run. And that's as early as the top seven, top five, like you have to be okay with hitting that double instead of saying this needs to be a true franchise changer for us. I mean, that applies to Fernando Mendoza,
Starting point is 00:16:59 doesn't it? Yeah, to a degree it does. If Fernando Mendoza turns out to be the 12th best quarterback in the league, I think that's kind of the realistic projection for him. In my opinion, I don't know. Other people might feel differently, but I think that's like people might balk at that when you say, oh, you can't take him number one if you only think he can be.
Starting point is 00:17:22 You absolutely can. Will you actually sit down and list the top 15 quarterbacks in the league? You're like, okay, yeah, I guess that makes sense. And I think that somewhere between 10 and 13, I think is a fair projection. and realistic projection for where Mendoza, maybe his ceiling will be in this league. You take that every single time or else you don't have a good understanding
Starting point is 00:17:44 of how hard this shit is. I mean, that would be phenomenal for Fernando Mendoza. A big picture thing that we don't have to talk a ton about now, but I do want to explore it at some point because I think it's an interesting study. That idea of doubles, Dane, if you look back at history of the draft, is it more important to find elite players in the draft
Starting point is 00:17:59 or to not miss in the draft? Yeah, that's fascinating. I think there's obviously examples of both. I don't think there's a hard fast. This is the right way to think. Part of it depends on where you are and you're building your roster. Where can you afford to maybe, you know, like the Rams sitting there with the 13th pick. They could afford to go make a splash if they really want to.
Starting point is 00:18:22 Whereas some of these other teams picking the top 10, hey, let's make sure we're getting a building block. A guy that might not be a true franchise changer, but he's a foundational piece for what we're trying to build here. So yeah, I think that the answer to that is definitely a moving target based on the team. I'll cheat with my answer and say if you never miss, you will stumble into guys who are better than you thought they'd be. Yes, I think that's right.
Starting point is 00:18:48 If you never miss, some of those guys will be elite, even if it's by pure luck. I truly have no idea what the answer is. I just think it's a question worth exploring and maybe we will at some point. All right, let's get to the next one here. Dan, this is the first time and a long time in your opinion that we have a class that is light at both quarterback and running back at the same time. We've had the quarterback conversation for a while now.
Starting point is 00:19:11 I mean, every team, the Cardinals and Jets are very well aware of the fact that this is not a quarterback heavy draft at the top. Maybe one other guy that's worth drafting in the first round in Ty Simpson. But the running back thing to me is almost more shocking. Because the idea that you have three running backs in your top 100, especially when you're coming off the heels of last year, where we talked ad nauseum about how you could find a starter into the third and fourth round.
Starting point is 00:19:35 This just does feel like a very strange class at running back and quarterback specifically. Yeah, and honestly, it's not even, so going back to 1985, okay, that was the last time we saw single-digit quarterback and running back, both together, drafted in the top 100 picks. So it's been a long time since both of these positions, positions were light.
Starting point is 00:20:01 And this year, we'll see if we're able to get to double it. If you combine the two positions drafted, if we can get to 10 or not, right now, I only have, you know, six or seven in my top 100 combined. And so I, we see quarterbacks overdrafted every year. You know, Drew Aller from Penn State could be one of those guys that gets into the top 100 for a team that just wants to bet on a quarterback. Yeah, like Mike Washington from Arkansas, running back has done a really nice job. This pre-draft process wouldn't be surprised at all.
Starting point is 00:20:30 if he goes into, you know, the third round, for example, especially when, you know, I think about the Seahawks, for example. Like, they only have, I think, one day three pick. So if they want a running back, they probably have to take them in, say, the third round. And so maybe you're taking a guy around earlier than you normally would or want to, but that's just what they have to do. So draft circumstance will play out how these positions come off the board. But overall, yeah, it's just a lighter position at both.
Starting point is 00:20:58 And I don't know that there's a, You know, I don't know there's a true root cause for why. It's just how this draft has played out. And these things are cyclical. You know, last year was late at quarterback. You know, we still saw, you know, quite a few go into, you know, in the top 100 picks. But this year, I just don't think we have that Tyler Shuck where, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:20 at this time last year, like I felt like I was, I had the champion for Tyler Shuck being a good quarterback. And, you know, I think he's, you know, we were, we feel okay about the promise he showed, at least as a rookie, where, you know, we'll see how year two goes. This year, I am having a hard time making one of those cases where in Ty Simpson from Alabama would be the guy that is, if you're going to make one of those arguments, he would be the player. And it's interesting.
Starting point is 00:21:48 And I'm eager for you to watch him, Robert, just because it depends on the timeline and the chronological order of how you watch as games. because back in my mid-season top 100, he was number two overall in that... We're listening to you guys in October, and I was like, oh, man, here we go. Let's get on the Ty Simpson train. It was hard to talk about him without like,
Starting point is 00:22:11 all right, let's not overdo this because his September, first part of October, was great. Georgia game, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin. Like those tapes to show a NFL starter doing NFL-level things where, and then you watch November, you watch some of the later season stuff, and it's like, okay, things are falling apart.
Starting point is 00:22:29 He's not able to elevate an offense that is deficient in the run game. The offensive line was a mess. And he wasn't able to overcome that. And so some of those average physical traits became a little more amplified. And so I think with Ty Simpson, some teams are going to be a little more optimistic. Some teams are going to be out completely, not even think he's worth a second round pick. So his draft's projection is all over the place at this point. Do you, so you had Tyler Shuck as your 50th overall prospect last year, I believe, in your final top 100.
Starting point is 00:23:06 Do you think that Ty Simpson in last year's draft would, you would rank him as a better or worse prospect than Tyler Shuck? I like Tyler Shuck as a prospect better than Ty Simpson. I'll call myself out for the length of the draft process because, yeah, I mean, I was driving the Ty Simpson train up until like November. And then last three games of the regular season and the postseason, I was like, oh, man, I got out over my skis here. But now that we're in mid-March and you're just going back and watching cut-ups and you can bounce around between three different games in 45 minutes. You don't have to watch the bad movies. You can just watch the good ones. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:43 I'm like, there's still, there's a lot to like here. If you can just sort of handwave some things. But I think that's, I'm a little more drawn to this quarterback class than I thought I would be because I am a coward. and there are lower stakes now. Like Mendoza is going to go one. That's fine. But like if Ty Simpson is a second round pick, if Drew Aller is a fourth round pick,
Starting point is 00:24:07 if you could get Garrett Nussmeyer late on Friday, I'm not saying that any of these guys are going to have amazing NFL careers, but like those are low stakes picks with some real upside, in my opinion. And those are my favorite sorts of decisions to make. So in your opinion, what are the percent chances?
Starting point is 00:24:23 a non-Mendoza quarterback becomes a legitimate starter in a league from this draft class. I wouldn't say good. I definitely, like, I could see, I could see Nuss being like a very capable backup with like some spot starter ability, you know, and like, and having a pretty good NFL career because of it. Ty Simpson's probably the only guy that I would be willing to say I could see having like legitimate career as a starter. But like so much of that is just projection because we've only seen 15 games.
Starting point is 00:25:00 That's the thing. 15 starts. That's that's tough. But the good, the good whips ass. Like the good's really, really good. And so if he were to get into the right situation at the right price too, like I'm into that. Like I said, I think that's mainly because you're drafting a guy with some very real potential without using a huge, huge pick.
Starting point is 00:25:21 Because I don't think I would draft Ty Simpson in the first round. I guess somebody might. But if you could get him in the 40s with a chance to grow into something over the course of his career and not be a day one starter in the NFL, I'm still pretty into that. I'm still, I'm not completely backing off the Ty Simpson train. I think that's fair. I mean, a chance to, at that point in the draft, it feels like a worthy risk to take. because you're right, there's a lot of good stuff on his tape. The lack of starts is a big, big issue.
Starting point is 00:25:55 Now, obviously, we've talked about this ad nauseum, but it's a more unique 15 starts because he grew up the son of a 20-year head coach at the FCS level, so he grew up in a college program. He's just a little more advanced mentally than I think most quarterbacks who only have 15 starts. And so it's just a really unique situation for him. but we just don't have a track record of a quarterback with so few starts going in the NFL
Starting point is 00:26:24 and really finding success over the last 10 years. The closest thing is like Mac Jones, you know, just obviously the Alabama connection, he had I think 17 starts when he was drafted. And, you know, he's a backup and fringe NFL starter. So, yeah, I think that with Ty, he's a unique player that I wouldn't be willing to take in the first round. But yeah, once we get to the second round, then it's like, all right, this is a dart throw that for whether it's the Cardinals or whoever, whatever team might be, it makes a lot more sense. We're coming off of a year, by the way, where there are a lot of example, two, examples of even if the general draft industrial complex doesn't believe this is an elite player, taking a dice roll on quarterback, the upside for it is so massive that you can talk yourself into it. That's exactly what Jackson Dart and Tyler Shuck are.
Starting point is 00:27:17 Like, no one was sold on Jackson, Dart, and Tyler Shuck as, like, real answers, a quarterback at the time that they were drafted. They were, they were, you're taking a chance because the upside is massive. And I think both of those teams taking that chance, even with the Giants having to trade up a little bit, they're probably pretty happy with their choices. Like, what is waiting for you on the other side, if it works out, is so massive that I think it becomes a little bit easier to talk yourself into it. at the same time, we can go on the other way, the Steelers, I think, are still probably scared off because of the Kenny Pickett thing,
Starting point is 00:27:49 the idea of taking a guy in that range of the draft. And so we've got examples on both sides that cut both ways. Anthony Richardson will love us, like those two guys in that draft, like, you know, it's, it is definitely, quarterback is such a complicated position to go through. And I think that we were hoping to see maybe Ty play at the Senior Bowl
Starting point is 00:28:13 and he was banged up by no so we didn't get that. He was fine at the Combine. We'll see what he does at the pro day. But I think he's going to crush the interview process and that'll help his chances. But overall, this quarterback class, we mentioned Garrett Nussmeyer. He
Starting point is 00:28:29 was a guy that had NFL starting starter grades coming into the year. Didn't play up to that level this year for LSU but the injury was a big part of it. It was a core abdominal injury. How much are you? Is that a reason or is that an excuse? And so I think every team's going to look at that a little bit different.
Starting point is 00:28:46 And then we get into the development guys or the backups. You know, the backups are your Carson Bex, your Cade Clubnix. And then the development guys that at least you can see some upside. Those are the Drew Allers from Penn State, the Cole Payton's from North Dakota State. So it'll be interesting to see after the first two quarterbacks come off the board and then even thus, when's that fourth quarterback come off the board? Is it, does someone take a chance in the third round or do we have to wait till day three? The running back part of this, just to kind of fill out the other side of like how free agency affected this a little bit and connecting the dots.
Starting point is 00:29:21 Like the idea that if Love's going to go in the top five, that's why Kenneth Walker and Travis E.T.N. get paid the way they do by teams picking in the back half of the top 10. And we also just saw, I think, a little bit more urgency to find veteran running backs to plug into your running back room in the first 10 days of free agency. The trade for David Montgomery, RICO Dowdell, Javent, Wendt, Witton, Javent, both coming back to their teams. Kenny Gainwell, Washington has already signed two guys just in case I assume that Jeremiah Love doesn't get there.
Starting point is 00:29:48 And so I think teams have shown a little bit of urgency and making sure they have answers there because that idea of, well, we'll just find one in the fourth round is not something that's going to happen in this draft and the way it could in previous drafts. Yeah, I mean, I think the Saints and Chiefs making the moves they did was to me, like in the moment, my first thought was, okay, they know Jeremiah Love's not making it to eight and nine respectively. Now, I mean, you never say never. The draft is the draft, but I think the league believes Jeremiah Love is going to go somewhere in the top seven.
Starting point is 00:30:18 He's too good of a player, too good of a prospect, belongs in that Bejohn Robinson type of category as a difference maker, both with his legs, but also what he can do in the passing game. So, you know, I think I did a mock the last day of the combine, so three weeks ago. and if I had to do one today, I wouldn't change the top five. It would still be, Mendoza 1, Arval Ries, 2 to the Jets, Cardinals taking Maui Noah, the right tackle from Miami, and then Jeremiah Love going forward to the Titans because of the impact that he would make with Cam Ward and just the difference maker he could be as part of that offense.
Starting point is 00:31:03 And part of that is you're just, where else you're going to find the difference makers if you're if you're Tennessee and especially at the running back position this draft it just it doesn't have those guys to gerardian price the other noradame running back probably going to be that second running back drafted most likely um second round maybe somewhere in the top 75 we've never seen two running backs from the same school go one two off the board so that'll be if that happens that'll be history and then when's that third running back come off the board is it mike washington Is it Emma Johnson, Nebraska, and how early does that happen? And there are some guys in rounds four, rounds five, that are interesting and can find a role
Starting point is 00:31:45 and maybe even make some type of an impact as a rookie. But it's a harder bet to make because we're talking about them as day three picks for a reason. And whether they're limited in an area, third downs, or whatever the reason may be, there's something about them that I think is going to hold them back, at least initially in the league. Dane, over under Friday night, three rounds are in the books, over under three and a half running backs off the board.
Starting point is 00:32:13 I'll take the over just because I think someone will squeeze one in there, another one in there. So I think maybe four go in there. Obviously, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. And then I do think, Mike Washington, man, the way he had this pre-draft process has gone. Did you see his three cone, by the way, Helman?
Starting point is 00:32:31 No, I haven't. But I was actually watching, I was watching Keldrick Falk tape a couple nights ago. And I just kept, my eyes just kept going to Mike Washington, just bowling people over. What was his three cone? 6-1, 223 pounds.
Starting point is 00:32:45 And he was a 696 three cone. So, I mean, he's, it's just checking the boxes. He was a 43340 at the Combine. That feels like a top 100 pick to me. That's what I'm saying. Like, that's somebody I think will, And he's a great kid too.
Starting point is 00:33:00 Like he started at Buffalo, then New Mexico State and worked his way up and played really well for a bad Arkansas team, but their offense had some juice. So I would take the slight over in that scenario, but I still don't think it's going to be, you know, five, six running backs. The Seattle Seahawks have the 96th pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
Starting point is 00:33:24 Absolutely then. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and keep shout. and through my idiots look at the 2026 NFL draft. All right, Dan, this next one is music to my ears. It's a team that cannot rush the passer and has three picks in the top 60.
Starting point is 00:33:43 But according to you, this is a good year to be collecting edge rushers. You have six guys between 29 and 54 in your top 100. So, I mean, that's just, the fact that that area of the draft, that late first into the second is filled with all these guys.
Starting point is 00:34:00 And I think one of the coolest connections points you can make is look at Seattle and where they found their edge rushers. Boye, Mafay, Derek Hall, both second round picks. Echena Nuosu was originally a second round pick. And so the pool players available in this draft kind of falling in line with
Starting point is 00:34:16 the way the best teams in the league have been building over the last couple of years. Something to keep in mind as we start digging into this thing. We're going to see three past rushers come off the board and the top 15, maybe even the top 10. Arvel Reese, David
Starting point is 00:34:32 Bailey, Ruben Bain. And then it gets interesting to see what the order is going to be as they come off the board in the back half of round one and then rounds two, rounds three. Because it's, you know, pick your flavor. It's what type of pass rusher are you looking for? You're looking for the linear explosive guy. You're looking for more someone that plays with power, someone that can rush down the middle, some of the versatility of upside.
Starting point is 00:34:57 So it really just depends on the type of pass rusher you want. and that will depend if you're going to be a R. Mason Thomas guy from Oklahoma or a Zion Young guy from Missouri. And so that more so than talent level is going to impact the order of these guys come off the board. But I think they're all going to come off the board
Starting point is 00:35:17 pretty early. I think I had 16 of them in my top 100 and they're a case to be made for a few others that should have been in there as well. So we're going to see these guys fly off the board pretty quickly. And you know, you point. to the last two Super Bowl winners, the Eagles, the Seahawks, the pass rush was such a big part
Starting point is 00:35:37 off the edge with what they wanted to do, staying fresh, keeping a steady rotation of those guys. So collecting edge rushers is going to be a common theme, I think, in a top 100. What's interesting to me, and again, I think a lot of these guys typically fall outside of the range I'm about to talk about, but it's still jumped out to me. Even if the flavors are a little bit different and the skill sets are a little bit different, there aren't a lot of small guys in your top 65. Like all the edge rushers that you have in your top 65, I don't think a single one weighs less than 250 pounds.
Starting point is 00:36:06 And even that is the guy that you just mentioned from Oklahoma, who's 6'1. And so that, I mean, that's when you think to think about the frame, I mean, that's still like a thick dude. And so, and a lot of those DPR guys that fall under that, are your 235, 240-pound guys, those guys often do fall further into like the third round. But the idea that you really have none of those players. and it's all these bigger-bodied guys in your top 65. I thought that was interesting.
Starting point is 00:36:31 Like there's really no undersized bendy speed guys as part of this discussion. Well, and that's why Texas Tech fans asking me why Ramello height is not higher in the top 100. It's because he's 235, 237 pounds. You know, that's how he plays. And that's fine. There's a room for you in the NFL, but you're probably not going to go in the top 60, top 75 picks because of that. Because you're going to be more of a role player in whatever team drafts you. but no I think that's a fair point
Starting point is 00:36:57 but there's also a reason we're talking about some of these guys as second round picks, early third round picks you know there's there's holes in part of their games and so I think that'll that'll be interesting to see how teams factor that in you know that'll a guy like Cassius Howell from Texas A&M
Starting point is 00:37:14 where does he fall compared to a guy like Malachi Lawrence from UCF like two guys that can get to the quarterback but they do it in slightly different ways and one did it at UCF one did a Texas A&M. And so I think it's a really fascinating conversation when you try to stack these guys.
Starting point is 00:37:32 And I think you can, the two smartest scouts in the world when it comes to scouting pass rushers could have two very different stacks when we look at this group as a whole. I think one of the most intriguing edge rushers is someone that Dave mentioned earlier, Keldrick Falk from Auburn,
Starting point is 00:37:50 who is in that Mikel Williams mold where he's the youngest player in the draft, he's big he's a former top recruit he's you know he if you watch his highlights if you see the best stuff that he does you see the ability to rush the passer he's not overly twitchy and like that's just not his game but he can win with power speed to power um the way he was utilized a lot of inside the tackle where he's not asked to rush the passer you know we had this conversation last year with schmarsh stewart and the ways he was asked to play so he's just a really talented player,
Starting point is 00:38:27 but a lot of differing opinions around the league, should he be the 15th pick or should he be the 35th pick? There's just a lot of different opinions about Falk. I think I love this, I really love this edge class and that's not to say that they're all great
Starting point is 00:38:43 or that they're all going to be great, but it is, it's just such a buyer's market of body types and rusher types and the way that you can try to fill this thing out. And I know you can get in trouble trying to to extrapolate too many lessons from the team that just won the Super Bowl. But I remember we talked about this on a show with Derek recently, Robert,
Starting point is 00:39:02 where like you need like ideally, I mean, at least five, if not like eight of these guys like the Seahawks have. And so I've come to a place where I'm just like, okay, can this guy fit into the puzzle? Can he be a piece of this for me and fill a role? And it's so tempting to be on the lookout for that Micah Parsons, Twitchy freak who can get you 12 plus sacks in a season or ideally even more than that. And yes, that is the ideal.
Starting point is 00:39:32 But again, in a year where those guys don't really exist, I am enjoying the challenge of trying to find guys that can fill certain roles for me. And they're littered all over the place, depending on the type of scheme that you run or the type of player that you're looking for. There are so many guys that are worth getting excited about. I mean, let's just keep talking about him, Dan, because it's, Keldrick Fawke seems like one of, like everybody hates Keldrick Falk. Nobody likes this guy.
Starting point is 00:40:00 And if you were drafting him in the top 10, I understand those concerns. But with each pick after that, like starting probably in the late teens and then getting all the way down into the second round, between the frame, the age, what you see on tape as like a run defender and what you hope he could grow into. if this guy's just a big badass run defender who can grow into being some piece of your pass rush, that's pretty exciting to me. And so I feel like I enjoy the challenge of trying to figure out how these guys fit. I think the fact that I know I'm not looking for that freaky 16 sack edge rusher, it makes this process a little more fun for me. Like I'm really enjoying watching these guys. And Fulk is a high character type of guy too.
Starting point is 00:40:48 Like the quotes I get from Auburn are just like, all right, give me something bad. Like this is too, sounds too good to be true. Like he gave part of his NIL earnings to help a walk on teammate. Like he's, like I said, he's a youngest player in this draft, but he was also the most vocal leader on that team. Like so there's a lot of things like about him. But I want to go even beyond the top 100. Because I think there's, I have over 30 draftable grades on edge rushers this year. It's just a loaded, loaded group.
Starting point is 00:41:19 And so even fourth round, fifth round, there's going to be some complimentary pieces that I think are going to help round out rosters and give you something off the bench. So some of them are more high upside dart throws. Others are high floor, just not going to be more than a role player, but still give you valuable snaps.
Starting point is 00:41:41 Like that's something that's going to be valuable in this draft. So top 100 is strong at the position, but also on day 3. We're going to see some pretty solid edge rushers come off the board. Dave mentioned saying puzzle pieces and using that as like a visual to think about this. I think is good because if the guy's like a little bit warped and weird looking and doesn't give you like perfect edges, but he fits together with the other pieces that you have that it starts. It matters less, you know.
Starting point is 00:42:05 And so again, we can get a little bit too reactionary when it comes to looking at the team that just did this. But when you look at what Seattle is, and I don't think that they're the only example. Like I think about how the Rams have built their front over the last two years. I think there's plenty of teams where you can just see the way they think about the different pieces and the way they think about the individual skill sets among that group and not how they exist in isolation, but how they exist in tandem with the other players that they have. I think that's a smart way to think about building your defensive front and by all accounts with what you guys are saying, this is the type of year to have that sort of mindset when thinking about the prospects.
Starting point is 00:42:40 I don't want to hear that you're not interested in a guy because he might not ever be a 10 plus sack player with any irregularity. Like, that's so boring to me. Give me six sacks in the Super Bowl. I don't give a shit. Dane, you've talked about this guy plenty. We talked about him on the show. I've been, I spent some time this week going back and watching Gabe Accus out of Illinois. Tell me you don't want that guy on your team. Like, the motor is insane. He plays with such a violent demeanor. And like, and like, there's definitely stuff you can work with there too. Like, it's
Starting point is 00:43:16 not to say he could grow into way more than you think. But even if the baseline is relatively low, just as like a motor guy, I love it. I love watching the demeanor that that guy plays with. And if you tell me that he's only a five or six sack player, I don't give a shit. Like,
Starting point is 00:43:34 I bet you he could be a really productive piece of a good pass rush. He's going to, Gabe Acis will be this year's version of like a Nick Scorton, that type of pass rush where, yeah, a solid player, as a rookie and then by year two you hope he's a good player and then you know
Starting point is 00:43:50 see where it goes from there but yeah Accus I mean the way he can marry his feet with his hands with his eyes you know he holds up in the run game violent use of hands he's a workaholic you know so all the feedback character feedback this is high on him
Starting point is 00:44:06 four year starter former wrestler so yeah there's a lot of things that kind of check the box check the box and like I said even on day three a guy like Cade Curry from Ohio State who was a big part of that Buckeyes defense this year, who doesn't get mentioned nearly as much as the other guys, but someone's going to draft him in the fourth round, and he's going to end up being a pretty valuable role player for whoever takes him. So, yeah, we could spend a lot
Starting point is 00:44:31 of time just talking about this edge class. I mean, the couple guys we did not mention my name, Akeem Mesador is your 19th overall player from Miami. T.J. Parker, is your 36th overall player from Clemson. And so a lot of guys to be thinking about. Again, if you happen to root for a team, who has three picks between picks 28 and 60. You might be paying attention to the edge guys. And the last point about this, you also have five defensive tackles going between 24 and 60 in your top,
Starting point is 00:44:58 or that you have in your top 100. So we could have up to 20% of the total picks in the first two rounds be used on defensive linemen, which feels like a notable thing to think about as we get a little bit closer to the draft. Let's keep rolling through these positions. The wide receiver class, also a ton of depth. You said you could make a camera.
Starting point is 00:45:16 taste for 20 of them, Dane, in your top 100. And we're really talking about different flavors and body types here. I mean, let's just stick to the guys at the top of the draft with this discussion. You got Carnell Tate, Jordan Tyson, and Mackay Lemon are your top three receivers in this draft. I mean, Tyson and Mackay Lemon potentially going in the same range of the draft, if you look at who they are, what they're bringing to the table. I mean, this is all going to be about what type of player you want.
Starting point is 00:45:43 Again, not in a vacuum, but how that skill set fits your office. offense. Right. And it's, I remember texting you in October, and I rarely do this because I know you don't care about. Do care. I don't care. I don't care in October.
Starting point is 00:46:03 But like, your focus is on, you know, on the NFL and not necessarily what might be coming down the pike. But I was, I don't know why I think you guys were just talking about something on, on the show. It made me think about... It was the idea of how, like, inside-out versatility and, like, players... We did a show about essentially how Puka, J-S-N, guys like that were reshaping the way that we think about elite wide receivers in the NFL, what it means to be in a lead-wide receiver in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:46:32 And that's where, okay, Mackay Lemon might fit in that category because of how dynamic he is inside-outside. And he might only be a four- or five athlete. and that's what the quote unquote official 40 time was, it was 4-50. But he is so good. It's the Humann-Raw-St. Brown. And it's a very, I think some people are going to be a little too high on him
Starting point is 00:46:59 because they're going to overcompensate for missing on Alman-Ross St. Brown, like we all did. While I think it's okay to be excited about when you watch McKay Lemon and you see how physical use of the catch point and how good he is maximizing yards after catch. he's just a tough kid who is not going to blow you away with the physical traits
Starting point is 00:47:19 but receiver specific traits that's where you know I just keep coming back to the Rams at 13 and like how much fun that would be to add him into that offense. We don't have to keep doing this. Why not keep doing this? But like, okay, but it's... I would be so annoyed if I were a fan of another team. And every single time we have this discussion whenever a cool player comes up, It's just like, let's just put them on the Rams.
Starting point is 00:47:46 The Rams are the Ravens. That's what we always seem to do is, yeah. But look, this is a receiver class that doesn't have that. I think none of these receivers, I have a high, as high of a grade as I did McMillan last year. So that's just something to keep in mind. Now, I still think there's quality receivers in this draft that can go top 15. Carnell Tate being wide receiver one, Ohio State, who really came on this past year. He was a big time vertical threat, but can also.
Starting point is 00:48:14 also work underneath. He's a really good route runner. That was the biggest jump he made from 04 tape to 05 tape was how detailed he is as a route runner, how more reliable he was in terms of the timing and the cadence and catching the football, an elite sideline guy as well. So I think with Tate, a team like the Browns at 6, you know, maybe I don't think the Titans would go that direction, especially after free agency. but I think teams in the top seven include the commanders in there as well. You can make the argument that Carnell Tate is the best option for us at this point. So I think he's going to come off the board quickly.
Starting point is 00:48:54 And then we mentioned Mackay Lemon. Jordan Tyson's a little bit more difficult because of the durability factor, all the injuries he's been working through. And even into this draft process, you know, it was a hamstring that bothered him throughout the year. and then, you know, it's kind of spiked a little bit during training. He wasn't able to work out at the combine. He's not going to work out at the pro day. There's a hope he can maybe run some routes before the draft,
Starting point is 00:49:22 but we'll find out about that as we get closer. And so he's a guy that has missed a lot of time over his four years in college. And that's, it's hard to understand how much to factor that in. But based just on the tape, to me, I see a guy like Stefan Dix, who can create a lot of, his own separation. He can win at the catch point. There's just a lot to like about him. And so these are three really good receivers at the top. And then I don't think it stops there because that Omar Cooper Jr. is right there after them. You know, mentioned Denzel Boston from
Starting point is 00:49:54 Washington. So yeah, this is a good receiver class where we're going to see six or seven go probably in that first round. I was looking at just this year compared to last year. And the first point I wanted to hit is, but there's probably no TMAC in this group, right? And that's exactly what you just said. And so you had 13, 13 went in the top 100 last year, 13 receivers. You have 20 in your top 100 this year. So what I wanted to ask you, if we removed the T-MAC part of this conversation, you had Matthew Golden, I think, as you're like 15th player in last year's draft, do you think, as you're thinking about those 20 guys in the top 100, do you think the bigger cluster is closer to the Matthew Golden side of things? Or do you think it's closer to like the Jalen Knoll, Jalen, Jalen, Jaden
Starting point is 00:50:37 range last year for you, which was your 45th player? I would say golden. I mean, the golden Ibuka, like, yeah, I think that's... That's pretty good then. I mean, that's, I think that says a lot about this group if that's, if we have a ton of them and they're shading closer to that direction. Right, exactly. And it's not to say that, like, this is a, we were just maybe spoiled a little bit when
Starting point is 00:51:00 we had, you know, the Marvin Harris and Malik neighbors, uh, Roma Dunes, they all go top 10. Like, you know, it seemed like every year we had some guys at the top last year with McMillan. It seems like this year it's just like, okay, who's that next top 10 receiver where we don't necessarily have a no-brainer that should go that high. But there's still, yes, absolutely, quality receivers that should come in and make an impact early on. And like I said, it's not just those first three guys.
Starting point is 00:51:28 Omar Cooper Jr. is right there. Casey Concepcion from Texas A&M, you know, he just had a knee scope. And so we'll see how much that affects. where he's drafted, but he's a dynamic player who is, you know, needs to clean up some of the drops, but he's explosive with the ball in his hands. So it's a receiver class that even into, you know, rounds two and three, there's really quality players that can give you something different based on if you want an outside guy, a slot guy, someone with more return experience.
Starting point is 00:51:55 Like there's just a little bit of something for everybody with all these wide receiver needs around the league. The theme for this draft really is it's okay to just be a good, because that's like just justice for just good football players. I don't know if any of these guys are special, but I like I'm I am in the process of going back and revisiting some of these guys. And I'm just like, yeah, I don't I'll see the problem. These are good football players.
Starting point is 00:52:21 Dave, give me an example of one of those receivers outside, like those guys we mentioned, that kind of fits that bill for you. Okay. I'll give you, I have to bring this guy up. I know it's a bit for me and we already did it. I just want to say, I'll plant my flag and say, say I don't I don't buy the hate on Boston at all like I don't I do not see him and I know he didn't run a 40 I know people are worried about his speed and his separation I see it when I
Starting point is 00:52:48 watch him like I think he's just fine for a guy his size his hands are so awesome and I just I don't view him as like a plotting player I just don't like having having gone back and watched him so I think I think the hate on him is overstated I don't know what that means for where he'll get drafted, but I'm comfortable with his movement and separation. And then another guy I wanted to highlight is a guy that you're a big fan of who I think this outlines my point perfectly. He's 6-1. He runs just shy, like just under a 4-5.
Starting point is 00:53:23 There is nothing overly special on paper about Jeremy Bernard. Jesus, you know these guys by their measurements, you sick, sick man. Jeremy Bernard is just a good freaking football player. dude like just go watch him play I love how smooth he is I love how effortlessly he kind of changes direction he's very like he just glides with the ball
Starting point is 00:53:44 in his hand yeah he's he's just a good useful football player I don't think that gets people excited but if he gets drafted mid you know midway through the second round I don't think that would be terribly surprising and I would probably be excited for the team that picked him
Starting point is 00:54:00 in Dane's top 100 the first sentence about Jeremy Bernard is at the risk of sounding Obtuce, Bernard is just a good football player. It's exactly it. There's no trait that's going to jump out to you when you turn on his games, but he's just out there producing,
Starting point is 00:54:16 looking like he knows what he's doing. Before we move on, let's take one more quick break. Stick with the past catchers here. The tight ends this year. Dan, you have told everyone who will listen that you're running out of space for the amount of draftable tight ends that you have in this year's group.
Starting point is 00:54:35 You've got five in your top 100. But let's talk about what that means when you say. So lay out the actual facts of this because you were tweeting about it the other day and I couldn't find the tweet. Essentially, how many draftable tight ends do you feel like you have? You seems like you're adding another one every time you watch somebody or every time you finish an evaluation on somebody. I have a draftable grade on 25 tight ends and five more that are just fringe guys. where if I get, depending on my situation, I could see them, I could see drafting them. So it's just a deep, deep group.
Starting point is 00:55:10 And a lot of these guys are not top 100 players. They're just useful players that it's like, okay, that will work on an NFL offense, whether it's because, you know, what they do in line, whether they, you know, what they can offer as a combo tight end. There's just a lot of different ways. Some of these guys, it's more about upside. It's more about, okay, they didn't show a ton in college, but you know what? I feel really good about these traits, and he was in an offense that didn't use the tight end very well, and there's more here. So, you know, it's just a really deep group with a lot of names, and not all these guys are going to get drafted.
Starting point is 00:55:45 They're just not enough spots on rosters for all 25 of these guys to get drafted, but they are draftable players. And it's just, I don't think I've ever had 25 drafts. draftable grades on a tight ends in any class I've ever done. So it's 25 total draftable grades. You have five in your top 100. Are we talking about the other 20 as like fifth, sixth round picks? Are we talking about some of the other 20 and a chunk of them as like fourth round picks? I would say it's probably half and half.
Starting point is 00:56:18 Like half in that fourth, fifth, the other half, six, seven. It's pretty evenly spread out. It's a fascinating time for this to be happening just because, God, think about all the conversations, Dave, we had over the course of the season about how tight ends have just shaped the NFL over the last few years. And I think there's so many different reasons for that, right? It's just having, being able to dictate by personnel, the how important blocking tight ends are to what you want to do.
Starting point is 00:56:43 I mean, this really was like a year of the tight end in the NFL. And so, Dane, the fact that that's dovetailing at the same time when we have 25 guys that you think are worth drafting. I wonder how coincidental that is. I wonder how causal that is. I wonder how much of that is the pipeline of players coming from college. to the NFL. You know, you hesitate to make like sweeping proclamations about any of this given in a one
Starting point is 00:57:03 or two year sample size. But the fact that those two things are coming together at the same time is, is interesting whatever the conclusions may be. It really is. And I, I don't know, there's probably a little bit of truth in all of what you said, you know, like I, but it's, part of it is this is, a common theme that we have to remind ourselves and everybody is just, this is what the college game is giving us, right? This is just what this year is giving.
Starting point is 00:57:30 And that goes for the top 10 of the draft. And it goes for a position like this that is super loaded on day three where you've got a Riley Nowakowski where if you, when you watch Fernando Mendoza and you when you watch his tape this year, you will not be able to watch it without noticing Nowakowski, Nowakowski at tight end. And how impactful he was as a blocker and then as a kind of that safety net for the quarterback. You know, you throw on BYU when you watch Carson Ryan, who was a combine snub. But this guy is going to go, he needs to be drafted because he's a good player. So up and down this tight end class, there are, whether it's because what they offer in the passing game as a blocker, both. There's something to them that's, I think teams are going to look at and say, all right, this can be our third tight end. and is it a Jackson Hawes type of reaction?
Starting point is 00:58:26 Maybe for some. I don't, you know, but I think it's just a good tight end class. I just love the juxtaposition of most people view this as an underwhelming draft. And I just know evaluators and coaches are so excited about the number of like day three tight ends where they're like, oh my God, this guy can play on three special teams units and in a perfect world he can unlock our 12 personnel and we can do 21 with him doing this or 22 like whatever like he can do six different things for us and he might only touch the
Starting point is 00:59:01 football four times in his rookie season but they're just going to be so excited to add him to their football team and the counterbalance to this is that as we have all these tight ends we're going to need safeties to worry about all these tight ends and you have seven safeties in your top 100 day. It's a good safety group and it does stretch into day three. And these guys are a little more specialized or, you know, like H1 has their own specific set of strengths and that's going to be one. It's like a guy like Genesis Smith from Arizona will be a third rounder for one team
Starting point is 00:59:41 and off the board for another just because he doesn't really fit the exact type of safety that they're looking for. So it's a little more of a specialized group, but there's a lot of them. And I think for the right fit, the right situation, teams can upgrade what they're looking at with their safety position. Just out of curiosity, Genesis Smith is your 72nd player. You've got one, two, three, four, five guys between 23 and 70. How many starting safeties do you think are available in the first two days of the draft? I wonder where this question is coming from.
Starting point is 01:00:15 Um, yeah, I mean, we're probably looking at six or seven. Okay, great. Great. I mean, I, Chicago could use one of these guys maybe in the second round. I think, well, yeah, I think in my, in my mock, I had them taking, I believe, A.J. Halsey from, from Dave's school down there at LSU, who there's a lot of Kevin Byard there. So I think that that was a potential fit. But, yeah, we mentioned Caleb Downs, but we have to. mentioned Dylan Theanaman and
Starting point is 01:00:46 McNeil Warren from Toledo who are two more safeties that likely go in the first round and are just really fun players to watch with how they can impact the game and so it'll be interesting after Caleb Downs when those next two guys come off the board. Which I know
Starting point is 01:01:03 I'm putting you on the spot Dan but we do this every year like Dylan Thieneman lit the combine on fire we talked about it plenty. It's easy to sit here and say oh he ran his way out of Chicago draft range. Do you think that's actually true? Or again, I mean, like it or not, positional value comes into play. Like, do you think he's definitely a top 24 pick, I guess? He was 23 on Dan's board
Starting point is 01:01:27 before the company. Yeah. No, that's my point. I mean, I think a lot of people expect him to be like 18, you know, picked 18th or better at this point. I think the draft range for him is probably 12 to 26, something like that. Wow. Yeah. Like if the Cowboys want, I mean, I guess maybe some of the frequency moves they made. Maybe they don't go that direction at 12. But I think that that's where we start to talk about him is in the teens, where we could see Tiananmen realistically come on off the board. So, yeah, but I wouldn't come away saying, yeah, he's definitely going top 18 or top 20.
Starting point is 01:02:03 So especially the safety position. Brian Branch was like my 16th player in that draft. And I didn't think there was any way he would fall out of the first round. He felt like the mid to late second. Still dumb to this day. Weird, I know. So when it comes to the safety position, I'll never really feel good about putting a cap on,
Starting point is 01:02:24 you know, I don't see them falling past X-pick. Last position to get through here just very quickly. You said you could see more offensive linemen drafted in the first round than any other group, but it's a flawed class as you even get into the back half of the first round for those tackles. And there's a huge fall off after the first round.
Starting point is 01:02:41 By a flawed class, and this may be a multifaceted answer, Are we talking about guys who are toolsy but raw? Are we talking about guys who might be solid but a little bit limited athletically? Like where are those flaws rooted in this offensive tackle class even if a bunch of them might be drafted in the first round in your opinion? I think guys that, for example,
Starting point is 01:03:01 the top two tackles, Francis Maui Noah from Miami, Spencer Fano from Utah, they're both college right tackles who some teams have on the board as guards because, and it's not because they can't stay outside, it's more if we're going to really maximize what they could be as pro players, let's move them inside and just let them flourish. And different teams think differently about that.
Starting point is 01:03:25 Some are very steadfast on let's let them fail outside at tackle. But like Spencer Fano to me is he might be the biggest wildcard in this draft because his arms came in at 32 and an eighth at the combine. And it's going to be fascinating. to see what the arm length is at the pro day. Because if it comes closer to 33, then all of a sudden, we're talking more about him as a tackle for some teams.
Starting point is 01:03:51 And there's a lot of teams in that top 15 that could use an upgrade on the offensive line, but these guys are not their Joe Alt, you know, the prototypical left tackle. And I think about Cleveland when we talk about this conversation, the additions they've made on the offensive line, they still are missing that left tackle. And I think ideally that's what they would fill
Starting point is 01:04:11 at that sixth pick, but is the right guy there for them? And Monroe Freeling from Georgia is a really toolsy player. You know, like the Colton Miller comps makes sense for him. But it just feels like a reach to take him as early as six. But if you're thinking long term enough and you really like the tools, okay, you know what, roll the dice. But it still feels like a huge projection at that point. Caden Proctor from Alabama is just an
Starting point is 01:04:41 unbelievable physical specimen, 360 pounds, he jumped over 32 inches in the vert, like just rare, rare explosion, but why aren't you a more consistent football player? You know, do we need to move you inside the guard
Starting point is 01:04:56 just to keep you from being stressed out in space? Then you have Caleb Lomu from Utah, who was the left tackle when Fano was a right tackle, but he's more of that Monroe Freeling level in terms of just needs to get stronger, needs to develop more. Like he's just not quite ready
Starting point is 01:05:14 to face NFL pass rushers. So all these guys, there's something about them that gives you pause more so than ideally you would want when you're talking about drafting in the first round.
Starting point is 01:05:25 But I think they're all going to go. I mean, I think all seven are probably going to go in the first round. And then there's a big drop off after those seven. When I say those seven, I'm talking about
Starting point is 01:05:34 Maui Noah, Fano, Fano, Friling, Proctor, Lomu, Blake Miller. and then Max Ian Hianichor from Arizona State. So these guys are all project as starters, but there's, again, there's something about their profile
Starting point is 01:05:51 that gives you a little bit of pause about taking them in the first round. Hey, Dane, real quick, because we have literally breaking news about this subject. Mike Garifolo saying that Spencer Fano got up to 32 and 7 eighths inches at Utah Pro Day. There we go. All the differences,
Starting point is 01:06:10 in the world, baby. Well, this happened last year with Will Campbell, where the combine was shorter arms, goes to the pro day, and it's longer. Now, the one thing with Fano that I felt okay about with that arm length was his wingspan was over 80 inches. It was three inches longer than what Will Campbell's was last year.
Starting point is 01:06:31 His was just over 77 inches. And you could argue that wingspan's more important than just strictly arm length when we talk about offensive tackles. So, look, Spencer Fano had the best workout of all the offensive linemen at the combine, the movement skills, just his ability to move in space and hit the bags, all that stuff. All the feedback from scouts was just glowing about this kid. The interview process was awesome.
Starting point is 01:07:00 So there are teams in the top 15 just looking for a reason to take this guy. And coming in close to 33 inches with the arm length will certainly help. All right. Hopefully my education about this draft class is helpful for the rest of you as we fully dig into this. We've got a full month of draft shows coming your way, starting today, really, really digging into it next week. Very much looking forward to how the next month is going to go all the way up to our live draft show, which we are doing again, blown it out. It's going to be great. For now, that is all we got.
Starting point is 01:07:37 Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you, very soon.

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