The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Analyzing the shifting WR market with Steven Ruiz

Episode Date: July 8, 2022

What have we learned from the boom in the wide receiver market this offseason? The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz joins Robert Mays and Nate Tice to discuss the record-setting contracts this offseason, how it compares to cap percentages in the past and what it all says about the positional value.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today's Friday, July 8th. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. In my opinion, the story of the offseason was receivers. You look at the way the receiver market has shifted. I think there's this push and pull of supply and demand,

where it feels like, or at least the narrative is, there's more receivers coming into the league than there's ever been, more competent receivers. But at the same time, the demand for receivers continues to increase. So these two seemingly competing ideas have kind of driven the way that we've thought about receiver value in the NFL. And it's led to a flurry of trades, a ton of huge extensions. That position has been at the forefront of pretty much every conversation about the NFL over the last few months. And as we get to kind of the tail end of our offseason coverage before we really dig into what next season would look like,

We felt this was the time to take a step back and really think about how that market is shifted, why it shifted, and what all of those changes mean. To help me do that, I have a couple wonderful guests that I'm excited to chat with. First of all, my good friend, Nate Tice, Nate, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing great. I'm very excited to say a lot of obvious things and make myself sound smart by saying the obvious things. Saying a lot of numbers that back up a lot of like, yeah, no shit, Nate. So I'm very excited to do that for the next hour. but yes, I'm actually really excited to dig into this.

Also joining us today is someone who wrote about this exact topic this week for the ringer and the timing could not have been better. It's perfect. Had to have him on as part of this discussion. Stephen Nuiis. How are you doing, buddy? Not well. Not well.

I don't know if you've been paying attention to the news, the NFL news. Not well. Important context here. Stephen is a Panthers fan who had to write about the Baker Mayfield trade. I am a little upset with you, if I'm being honest, because the interactions that you had with Lindsay today, when she was talking about being in your Slack and talking about what you were writing,

I'm not ready for that yet. I'm just, I am not emotionally prepared. Very complicated for me with her going to work with you guys. There's a lot of emotions kind of swinging back and forth here. Not sure how to process it. And I'm just ignoring it. I'm choosing to pretend that it's not happening for at least.

Cry more. Cry more. I'm going to send Lindsay a slack right now. All right. The first thing I wanted to talk about here is just addressing, whether or not receivers actually are getting paid more. You know, when you see these numbers flying around, sometimes it's hard to keep track of where that context lies.

The cap has exploded so much even over the last 10 years and continues to go up. So you look obviously at the salaries, guys making $20 million, upwards of $30 million when you look at the Tyreeks and the Devantes, even though those numbers are a little misleading. And we could get into that if we want to. But there's a dozen receivers making $20 million. million bucks in the NFL right now. And that seems like a lot. And I was wondering, looking back at the numbers, whether that is actually a change, whether guys are making more relative to other players

in the league, whether percentage of the cap, all of that stuff. Nate, when you're thinking about what receivers were getting paid in other eras, who are the first few guys that come to mind for you? It's like, oh, I wonder what he made when he was at his peak. I mean, that other eras. I didn't look that too far back. So keep it slightly recent. Randy, Randy Moss is number one who I thought of. And he's signed some decent size deals. And that was one of the arguments when he got traded to Oakland, which there's a lot more to it. But when he got traded was, oh, we can now use this.

I think it was even just like 27 million total. It wasn't even that big. Oh, we can use that to spend it on defensive players and be more balanced. And the other one I remember is the Julio, AJ Green, summer. Yes. That is the one that stands out to me because I was with the Falcons around that time. And that was a big topic of discussion. So I remember that being a discussion about, wow, the receiver market is booming.

And that was eight years ago, seven years, seven years ago. So that, you know, it's been a top, it's been on the forefront for at least, you know, a decade more than we to think. So I was looking back at the numbers over the last 10 years or so. That decade is what I was looking at. It helps that spot track. That's where their salary specific numbers go back to. So it was a nice little chunk of time. In 2012, there were two receivers making $16 million a year.

Okay. and that was a huge chunk of the salary cap, a huge percentage of the salary cap. Those two guys were Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Part of the reason they were making $16 million a year in 2012 is that Calvin Johnson's rookie contract was for six years and $55 million when he was drafted in 2007. The old CBA completely threw that out of whack because both of those guys were top three picks. Calvin in the final year of his rookie deal made $14 million. He was the highest paid receiver in the league as the final year of his rookie.

deal. So those numbers, you almost have to throw them out. Outside of those two guys in 2012, one player made at least 9% of the salary cap. One receiver, Vincent Jackson, is the only one. Remember he signed that free agent deal with the bucks? That was the only guy who made at least 9% of the cap outside of those two guys who were top three picks in the old CBA. 2015 is where there's a slight shift where all these guys start getting paid. And that group, like you alluded to, Julio, A. J. Green, Des, Demarius, Thomas. Remember the they all came in in succession, like one after the other, they all started to roll in. So those guys all made about 14, 15 million bucks.

Okay, AJ was at 15, Julio 14.2, Des 14, Demarius Thomas 14. $14 million in 2015 was about like 9.5% of the salary cap. It was just under 10%. So you really only have those five guys. This year, there are 12 guys making in that range. of the cap. 20 million dollars equates to 9.6% of the salary cap. So this is real. This isn't something that we're imagining. Even if you're trying to take into account how the cap is growing and the percentages involved here, there is a huge growth in the number of receivers getting paid

top of market money relative to other positions. When you look at that group of 12, Stephen, that like dozen or so guys, does it worry you at all? Does it feel like a bubble when you consider are the players that are at the top of that bracket? I think that if there's going to be a bubble that bursts, I think it is at the top of the market. And I think it's with, it's similar to the quarterback market, like the wrong guys getting paid. Yeah. Devante Adams, I think he was over.

I think like 30 million is a little rich for a receiver, but he's going to be a good player. You're not going to regret paying Devante Adams that money. I would say the same about Justin Jefferson whenever he signs his deal. Like these do it all superstar elite wide receivers. who can pretty much fill any role you need in an offense. I think when you start to get below that and you start to even get into like someone like AJ Brown, who I think is a great receiver, I don't think he's on Devante's level in terms of versatility.

When you start paying a guy like that, that much money, I think that's where teams are going to get into trouble. And then you're going to see the pendulum kind of swing back towards the other way to where we were before this market did explode. And I think it's even exploded in the last. year. According to Spottrack, 7.2% of cap dollars went to receivers last year. This year, it's slated to be 11.3%. That's crazy. It's a huge jump. Yeah. And it's crazy. If you go back to 2013, it was at 7.1. So there wasn't much growth between 2013 and 2021. But in 2022, it just

jumps. And like the average dollars going towards the receiver room on average, $24 million per team. Last year, it was $12 million. It's jumped that much in one offseason. So I do like I agree with you this is it's not only been a thing that's coming for a decade now. This last off season, it jumped significantly. And I think it really, I think it changes the way we have to talk about this position. And going back to the names you listed in like 2014, the guys that were making money, I think that's a different brand of receiver that was getting paid compared to now. Who's getting paid now?

Those guys fit an archetype that I don't know if it. necessarily exists or it's as valuable as it was back then. What do you mean by that? Because I understand what you're saying. I'm thinking of Des exactly when you say that. But what do you mean when you, when you lay it out that way? I'm talking about that alpha X receiver,

that guy you isolate the, he's the ISO scorer if you want to steal the basketball analogy. That guy. Oh, I'm going to, I'm going to cross sports analogies this whole pot. So don't you worry. Don't you worry. Oh, buddy.

I have 400 words of basketball metaphors. But yeah, I think we're seeing different types of guys get paid now. And I think that money is being spread around. And I think you guys both have numbers that kind of speak to this. But I think that money is getting spread around more. But there are still those upper echelon guys that I don't have a problem paying all that money for. So I don't have a problem paying AJ Brown that money. And it's for a few different reasons.

I think he is like a borderline top five receiver. Even if he's a tier down from the Devante tier of things. So the AJ Brown deal, because he has the cheapier left on his rookie contract. you're getting ages 25 through 28 on that deal for $16 million on average over the next four seasons. It's a $74 million cash flow over the next four years. The Tyreek deal, you're getting ages 30 through 33 at a $22.5 million average with a $73 million cash flow over the next three years. So those little differences, I think the AJ Brown deal is the one that I'd be most excited about when it comes to value in this entire conversation. For me, I totally agree with you with the quarterback comparison because that's what I'm thinking about right now,

is that it feels like there are more receivers that are playable than ever, but at the top of the market is still worth paying. I'm worried about that one or two steps down from that top group. Let's even cut it off. I think Diggs is in that is comfortably there. I think McLaurin is comfortably there. We get down to the DJ Moore, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, group. I'm like, uh, okay, maybe. Like, we can, we can have a conversation about whether that's correct value, but you get down below that. The Christian Kirk deal is insane in any way that

you slice it, but that's where it gets crazy. The Christian Kirk deal feels like the Kirk Cousins deal for receivers where why do you need a, why do you need to pay a premium for this level of play when this level of play is going to be available if you stumble into it through five different directions. So that's that little tier right there when we start getting into the 16, 17, $18 million a year guys, that's what would worry me. Maid, how do you feel about this? Yeah. I think death, just like in other sports where this happens, death happens when you pay a good player elite money. And that is you don't want the John Wall contracts. You don't want Hey now. We need to bring up John Wall. I think I think the comparison I'm going to start drawing to

it's not even basketball. It could be baseball and pitchers. I think that the top snap count has dropped. There was only two players this past, two receivers this past year. I tweeted this that played more than 90% of their snaps. In 2012, it was 11. And that's not an anomaly.

The number is just keeps dropping down. I think it's because now they need more guys to run these routes. If you're going to throw more as a league, these guys need rest. It is impossible to play this much. It's really interesting. And, you know, if we're going with baseball, baseball, this is what this comparison, like just like an innings pitch. There's only four pitchers

last year that threw over 200 innings. I think it's going to be the same thing kind of with these receivers. And I think just like with receivers and or just like with pitchers, when you see a pitcher get traded, it's usually for a lot. It's usually like an ace pitcher that goes for a lot because they can pitch those innings. They can go six, seven, eight innings and be effective. I think it's the same thing for a receiver. You want the Cooper Cups, the Devante Adams that are on the field 85% of the time, 88% of the time. Those guys that can go into slot outside because you don't need a middle reliever. You don't need your number receiver three, four, five to play in these snaps.

That's where that's where the value is going to be coming or coming from. So I think it gets dicey when you're paying, like you guys said, the Christian Kirk's, who is still a very effective player, but he's, he's a niche. It's a role. He's a role player. 90% of us not, like he's best from the slot. It's proven, college and now pro. So that's where it gets dicey. It's like you're paying your number four pitcher ace money.

You know, and that's kind of what we're getting into in that territory. So I think, Stephen, you, you nailed it on the head right at the beginning that it's kind of, you know, it's that it's not the whole bubble at the top end, but it's that next step down. I think you guys are both alluding to it. And when I was looking at the top numbers, when I went from 11 to 2, the 25 to 50% snap numbers have risen in the last, in the last decade since 2012 to 2012 to 25 in 2021. So it's that middle class market that's growing as well. So that's a lot of reasons. These are these snaps are coming from other positions. There's not fullbacks playing anymore.

It went from 19 fullbacks playing 25% of the snaps to four last year in the same time span. Like it's those snaps have to go somewhere. So it's when you're, that's why you're, it seems like more of these guys are coming like into the spotlight because it's just a sheer numbers game. These snaps had to go somewhere and this money has to go somewhere. And I, I feel like it's almost like a wild west situation where, teams are still trying to figure out the market.

They absolutely are. What's the tier? Where's the tier break? Like you're saying, like the sport has changed. We don't know how much to pay receivers and how much to allocate towards a deep receiver room. And the players that they're replacing are players that historically didn't get paid a lot of money.

They're replacing tight ends. You didn't get paid a lot of money. They're replacing fullbacks. You didn't get paid any money. And now these guys are a premium position based on the value. of their contracts and now those guys are replacing those snaps, that's going to change things fundamentally with how you build the roster. And I think teams are still trying to figure it out. Like we're seeing like the Devonte Adams is such an interesting case because the Packers were

willing to pay that price. That's the difference about that one, right? That's why that one's hard to kind of talk about in the same terms as the Hill deal and the Brown deal. And I want to get into that a little bit later. But it becomes complicated because of that factor with it. He saw the tattoo, like the art before on the tattoo. And he was like, I don't know, man. He saw like the five different options, Rogers put out in the group chat. And he was like,

Devon, I got to get out of here. I've got to go. He's going for that calm lifestyle in Vegas. It's where things are going to get a little quiet for him. So I want to one more note about just the makeup of offenses because you would have a little bit, Nate. I thought this number was really good.

In 2013, six teams played 60% of their snaps, at least 60% of their snaps and 11 personnel. Last year, 17 teams played at least 60% of their snaps and 11 personnel. So there are more receivers than they've ever been. The numbers game is coming from like 10 different directions here. There are more receivers coming into the league, theoretically, that are able to play. But you need more receivers that are able to play.

So the supply and the demand is so fucked in all of these different ways that it's really hard, like you said, Stephen, for teams even to keep track of it. I was talking to a gym about this this week. we're talking about just the need to have a number one receiver. And I think even three, four, five years ago, there were really smart people in the league who would have been able to build their teams and just say, you know what,

we don't need a number one guy. There aren't that many number one guys. It's not necessary to survive with a number one receiver. Because I think that was true until pretty recently. Now I think that's shifting. Even Brandon Bean a couple years ago when I was talking to him about just the process of how they built around Josh Allen.

When they signed John Brown and Cole Beasley in that one-off season and they built it kind of piece by piece with role players, even he said, yeah, you know, there aren't that many true number one guys. I don't think you need a number one guy. And then a year later, they'd straight a first round pick for Stefan Diggs. Because I do think that's shifting. And I think that there are teams who want to be out in front of that, like Philly. They want to say, we have to jumpstart this thing by going to get that guy. And I'm wondering how you feel about this, Stephen, because like you just said, the rise in the. and the salaries is an indicator that this has become one of the truly elite premium positions.

In 2012, there were three receivers in the top 60 by AAV in the NFL. This year, there are 16. If you look at it compared to edge rushers, in 2012, there were 17 edge rushers, defensive ends making at least 10 million compared to three receivers. This year, there are 23 receivers making 15 compared to 21 edge rushers. it has caught up to and even potentially surpassed the position we have traditionally said is the second most valuable spot in the NFL. Do you think that's fair?

Do you think that's right? Or do you think we've gotten a little bit ahead of ourselves? I do think we've gotten ahead of ourselves. And I think one of the issues is that it seems to me like the criteria for a number one receiver has changed. Like back when I started doing it, doing this, the criteria was. based on body type almost. Yeah, yeah. It was based on, like,

looking like Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson. Now it's more based on usage, like how many snaps you're getting, how many routes are running, how many targets you're getting, how many spots you can play? Cooper Cup wouldn't have been considered a number one receiver back in even, like,

2014. He would have been considered, like, a secondary guy. But now there's no denying that he's a number one receiver. He's an alpha guy. Like, he dominates their targets.

Even if he doesn't run the same routes that we usually associate with guys like that are line up in the same spots. And I think you could start to have an interesting conversation about positional value when you compare receivers to offensive linemen or offensive tackles specifically. I think that's where it gets interesting. But for me, I don't think, I'm not ready to put them on that tier with the past rush. And I know you're not either night. Yeah.

Well, that was interesting. Yeah, no, no way. But that was interesting. I'm getting there. I'm getting there. I seriously over the last year, I've really sat back and thought about it and put, gotten into a dark room, be like, what do I actually believe about this? because watching Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson and even A.J. Brown, just I think there are a collection of like five, six, seven guys where their talents are so unique in a world where passing has become so prominent that I think you could make an argument that they're as impactful on the game as any non-quarterbacks that you could possibly list off. I think I believe that.

All those playoff games, Justin Jefferson led the Vikings to. But Miles Garrett and Miles Garrett was crushing people in the playoffs last year. I like this, though, is the offensive line take is actually interesting because this is kind of going to go with a thought of kind of having. We talk about the basketball, you know, the basketball lineup for your receiver room. Like that's become now it's common. Like it was a niche saying now it's cool now. So it's with that, I think I look at it now as a quarterback is part of that starting lineup. And then you need your pick and roll guy and the other three starters are the shooters.

And then, okay. And then your fifth receivers, whatever, he's the sixth man. This is how I'm looking at now. need a one. You need a one. You need the role guy. You need shooters. And if you're two, if you're number three, four, five, one of them's freaking Clay Thompson. Awesome. Like, that's great. If that guy, that shooter is out, Clay Thompson sitting there can play defense too. And you get three and D guy. Great. I think that's how you have to look at your receiver room too. And that's kind of going with the offensive line. Yeah, it's great. It's really your best five. So really,

yeah, you have to spend a top 10 pick, a lottery pick on your tackle. But you can find your guards and centers in the second and the third round. Just like you can find your number two's, your numbers, using number four is in the second, third, fourth round. I don't know. I kind of like that what Stephen was saying. It's like, yes, you need a one, but as far as building the whole room out, then you find it in other places. If that's kind of making sense, and I think that's where the salary is going and everything

like that and the snap counts and everything. So where the bottom's coming up and the top's going down. But I think you need that one, your roll guy, and then roll R-O-L-L-Pick-and-R-O-L-L, and then you need your other role-guise, R-O-L-E on the outside shooting and playing defense and doing all the other things. I don't know. That's where I'm starting to, like, look at this. But I'm not saying receivers don't matter.

I'm saying that maybe it's more the good, very good guys we should look at. That's where the edges are is getting that good and very good for receiver spots two through four. And one thing for me that separates edge rushers from receivers. I think defenses are better about taking away star receivers within the context of their defense. Like they don't have to go out of their way to do that. They're just naturally doing it with the types of zones they're playing. The too high allows them to do that. whereas an edge rusher, the only way to really neutralize them is to do stuff that prohibits you on the offensive end.

You have to keep a tight end to block. You have to keep a running back into chip and that prevents them from getting out. So that's what separates those two from me. I think it's easier to take away a good receiver than it is to neutralize a good edge rusher. I'm not sure I believe that. I think it's closer than it's ever been. And I think it's closer than it's ever been for a few different reasons. I think the yards after catch and the ability to create aspect of this is a huge part of it.

If you're just a vertical receiver and like that's how you dominate the game, I think that guy can be taken away fairly easily with the constructive defenses. But the idea of being able to create explosive plays just by getting the ball in a guy's hands. And we see those guys, right? It's the AJ Browns and the Tyree kills. And Devante Adams is really, really good in that aspect when they're just playing that RPO game with him. And Jamar Chase was incredible at that last year. What Debo can do for you.

Those guys to me, like those guys have, would they have rare skill sets if you just flip them the ball and what they can do with it. That, to me, matters. I think you have to be a rare, rare type of player to be in this conversation. And I think the list is fairly small. I also, one thing I wanted to talk about is that I think one of the reasons that this, it's taken people by surprise a little bit and it feels like it's happened quickly, is that I do think the types of teams that can really win in the NFL has changed fast.

Like when you go back and we're talking about the financial landscape of the league in 2012, In 2012, the two teams that played in the Super Bowl finished 12th and 16th in total passing EPA in the NFL. It was the Ravens and the Niners. If you look at the six teams last year that won playoff games, 2012 was also the running back on the fucking MVP award. That was only 10 years ago. If you look at the league last year, six teams won playoff games. Those six teams finished first, fourth, fifth, seventh, eighth, eighth, and ninth in total passing EPA. it's become a requirement.

It's not negotiable anymore whether or not you have to have an elite passing offense to potentially contend for a championship. And even 10 years ago, absolutely it wasn't a requirement. Five, six years ago, I think you could squint and maybe talk yourself into it. Now I don't even think it's a conversation anymore. And because of that, it feels like you have to have that elite passing game. And if your quarterback can't drive it alone, how are you going to create that? And I also think that's why a guy like AJ Brown and a guy like Tyreek Hill, those guys are more valuable to a team like the Eagles and a team like the Dolphins where we need to build a really good passing game no matter what and our quarterback can't do it on its own. So I also think there are two groups of teams that have to think about receiver a little bit differently.

And that's beyond quarterback, how much a quarterback is making. Yeah, that was going to be like, I would say counterpoint, but continuation was that the better the quarterback, the lesser the receivers have to be. as far as overall talent. Yes. And the worst, the quarterback, the better receiver talent has to be. I mean, it's kind of like, yeah. The why I kind of have hesitated sometimes to maybe say receivers are premium. I know they're borderline, even for me I'm saying that, is that so much is situation

specific for them to affect the game. And that's why I always hesitate with that. I think an offense alignment, no matter what's going to, every third out there, every snap, and it's blocking is blocking. You know, yes, coaches do help with that. But I think so much the receiver to affect the game, it's the play call. has to be decent. They have to be aligned in a good spot. And they also have to be like, if they're not an all-leak guy, okay, or in the quarterback has to get him the freaking ball. I think so much they can be

taken away by what other factors, like perk factors that affect them. So that's why I always hesitate with that, because to me, a player should be able to affect the game no matter what. I always say scheme proof or situation proof, especially in the draft process, because that's who I think the aces that these positions are. Aaron Donald's going to be freaking Aaron Donald, no matter what scheme he's in. Devante Adams is going to be effective in this game, but is, you know, I really like Chris Godwin, but is Chris Godwin in a non-Aryans offense going to be Chris Godwin, like using them how they use them? Like, you know, those types of guys. So that's where I hesitate with that.

But yeah, that's, it's always going to, I'm going to be drag kicking and screaming into this discussion and whether I consider receivers or premium for next couple of years because it does matter. I think that Godwin tier of things is, is where you have to have the conversation. I think that's when you get to that group of guys, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin got paid the exact same amount of money this year. Those, that group, that I could see the argument there. Like, listen, Harold Landry got $17.5 million this year. Chris Godwin got $20 million. Who do you think is a better, more valuable NFL player in 2022 between those two guys,

Stephen? But that's a team deciding to pay them that much. Sure. Okay. Let's go beyond that then, all right? I'm trying to think there's a lot of, all right. All right. So, okay.

Max Crosby got 23 and a half and Terry McLaurin got 23 and a half. How do we feel about that? Max. Yeah, I'm taking Max. I think I probably am too in that conversation. I'm taking Max. And I think we saw the impact of that having him on the defensive line had for that Raiders team, especially down the stretch and even in the playoff game.

And Terry McClare, even Gus Bradley couldn't screw up Max Crosby. Even Gus Bradley could. I've seen Rainier. Moscow to the Oakland Raiders and catch 800 yards. Like it's that is like burn into my brain. I've seen these elite guys get into bad situations and it can't affect the game. And that's, it's hard. I know I'm sounding like an old timer with that, but it's like that's always just going to be in my brain.

I, I do think Godwin is like the, the most interesting test case because it's hard to overstate his importance importance to that offense. But at the same time, he's not Mike Evans. And I think that's when that's the type of guy that I would compare to, uh, compared to Clay Tom. I think he's a gravity guy and if you don't respect that he's going to burn you but I don't think he's a guy that you can just say

go line up out there and win and get a bucket as they would say about quarterbacks. I think we can apply that same metaphor to wide receivers and there's like five of those guys. I think that's right. I would make those same comparisons and that's kind of what I'm saying is I think there are like five

or six of those guys where they are right there. Now I'm not sure. But how many are getting paid more than $20 million? That's right. That's right. And you say five or six and 11 are getting paid $20 million already. That's right. So I think that's a totally fair point.

And then I was going to say, I think there are five or six guys that are as valuable. And then I was going to start listing the edge rushers. And I was looking at the edge rushers. It's like, all right. Like are we at a place where A.J. Brown affects the game the same way that Miles Garrett does. That's hard. That one's hard. When you actually think about the players, that's hard.

And then when you go a step further even down than that, then it becomes even more difficult to make the argument for receivers when you get into those $20 million guys. You know, like Von Miller, even at 33 years old, compared to a Mike Williams, I think that Von Miller is a better player. But I will say, I think we have to take into account what the makeup financially of some of these teams are, is, right?

The Chargers can pay Mike Williams and Keener Allen $20 million. a year each. They can do that because of what they're paying their quarterback. The Eagles can pay AJ Brown $25 million a year. The Dolphins can pay Tyree Kill $28 million a year because you have to create the elite passing game somehow and that's where your resources would go. It is not an accident that the players, the teams that traded away AJ Brown and Tyree kill this offseason, their quarterbacks have the highest and the second highest cap hits in the NFL. So I think that that has to be taken into account is that you have to throw the if you're going to throw these resources anywhere beyond pass rusher and quarterback i think receiver is right there for how teams

should be spending their money i think that's what a lot of teams landed on this offseason stephen yeah and to nate's point speaking of those guys i do in bringing up gus bradley again having those two pass rushers last year allowed the raiders to play simpler on defense and in the back end on coverage. I don't think there are receivers that allow, that afford you that same luxury. And that's where I think the big difference is for me. Even like a guy like AJ Brown,

I don't think he does that. I think you have to mold the offense to get the most out of him instead of the other way around where he's helping the offense do something easier for the quarterback. I'm, I totally disagree with that. I don't think he's going to make Jalen Hertz's job easier. I'm not sure.

With Jalen Hertz, it's hard for me to imagine exactly, what it's going to look like. Yes. In Tennessee, that's exactly what AJ Brown did. We're just running crossers off play action, and they have the most effective passing game in the league. It was totally simplified by what he could do by boiling the game down for him.

So I think that's the easy comparison for me. Oh, man, but it's just like, J.1 Hertz is going to go balls. And it's like, that's why it's hard. Because I don't think it's as simple as we're dropping a really good receiver onto the team. We're going to accelerate our quarterback. They've got to fit together. Yes.

And Tana Hill and A.J. Brown were like the perfect fit. Oh, beautiful. Yes. Yes. Both. I think it's a tough comparison. Yeah. I think that's a big.

Well, to stand it on play action. Well, to take hits over the middle. It's right. That's why I don't necessarily think when I'm thinking about what Tyreek Hill is for the Dolphins and what A.J. Brown is for the Eagles. In my mind, I'm not thinking, oh, this is the way to get the most out of the quarterback. To me, it's the way to potentially get the most out of your passing game.

I don't even know if it's pushing your quarterback. forward. I just think it's the best set of bets you can make with your resources to have the 10th best passing offense in the league with a non-elite quarterback. And I think those bets are worth making with the way the game is currently set up. Man, it's, now I'm just like thinking. This is where, like, I've been thinking too. We're talking about AJ Brown, but he's going to be paired with Devante Smith. And that's also just being complimentary skill sets. I really do think they have nice skill sets, not just because they look like a one and a zero, but just like they really like kind of go off of each other. Yeah. But like this is, man, this is, it's just so hard because I'm just talking in

circles with this. But it's having those other options is what's going to help. And I think this with the argument for A.J. Brown, Dow's Goddard had a great year last year. He's a good, legit tight end. Having like three guys that you can get to create in some way, shape, a form. It's great when you have a guy, a 1A or even if you want to say like, even if AJ Brown is very good. if you even don't consider an elite. He's borderline. He's in that area. But we talked about this on the defensive pod with Deonté, Robert, or the offensive pod, too,

what routes are going to become in vogue, these backside routes, these digs that are coming from the front side, the number two on these progressions, more guys have to be viable options. This is all just tying into what you guys are saying, like the old school outside only, the guys I love, the true ball winners, the Mike Williams's of the world, like, yeah, they have a role, but it's got to be it's more of a complimentary role and because i think these concepts are going to be needed it's not the old school west coast which is truly like a true west coast offense and a doubt up play just watch out of old eagles andy replay or early chiefs one one guy is really designed to get the ball now we're getting to true progression place and i think with all that stuff everybody has to be a viable

option so i think this is just all tied into that where i think it's like yeah you have to have multitude of options and it really helps when you have a weak guy stephen in your piece that you wrote this week. I thought that was a fantastic point when you're thinking about the fact that if you have a true number two, it makes your number one that much better. And when you look at a lot of the bets that these teams have made over the last couple of years, and think about Cincinnati. They took Jamar Chase in the top five a year after taking a receiver with a 33rd overall pick. Washington just handed out that deal to Terry McLaurin two months after taking a receiver in the first round. And I have no issue with that. Five years ago, seven years ago, Nate, I think that if you're Howie Roseman and you're looking at, at a passing offense of Devante Smith, Dallas Goddard, whoever is your other receiver,

and you try to piece the rest of it together. Either you can sit there and say, you know what, that's fine. We've invested in it. Like we have enough pieces, whoever our number two receiver is going to be plus Goddard, we can figure this thing out. If you're Washington and you have Curtis Samuel, name your number three guy and Terry McLaren, that's fine. We can figure this out.

I don't think you can do that anymore. I just don't think you can with the demands on your passing offense. The Rams have Cooper Cup. their first priority in free agency was handing Alan Robinson that deal to make sure they had a viable second option as part of that passing game. And I don't know if that means it makes your number one less valuable the fact that you need a number two. That's hard for me to square. But I think it's okay just because of the number receivers we have on the field.

I do think that that brings up the point we're making earlier about like the first class of receivers needing to be versatile. That's why I only want to pay those guys that can line up in any role and just be a chameleon. Like Devante Adams can do anything you want him to. He can be any receiver you want him to be. You want him to be Cooper Cup. This is why Jefferson's number two for you. Like that's, yeah, same. Pretty much all of us, I think, actually.

So, I mean, how many of those guys, Stephen, in your mind, how many of those guys are there? I'm putting you on the spot. But if you had to truly list off those guys, who do you think it is? Honestly, I, three. Okay. Three. And maybe it's just because I haven't seen age. Brown do it because of the type of offense he's been in.

But for me, three, that's what I'm very high on Stefan Diggs. Maybe it's a Maryland thing, but I don't know. I love you. This is a pro Stefan Diggs podcast. You don't have to talk us into him. I would put him in that class. I would put Devante in that class. I would put Justin Jefferson in that class.

I wouldn't put Cooper Cup. And I think Cooper Cup is a very interesting topic of discussion when it comes to this. Because Cooper Cup, when you look at when you really like drill into his usage, like he's not getting isolated. He's not getting pressed up. the line because he's usually playing in the slot. He's getting a lot of a lot of reps against linebackers. Again,

zone defense. Like, he is protected. And how did they get the most out of him by having Odell Beckham run that backside dig during the playoffs? And that's the importance. And that's why I think you need that second guy unless you have Devante, unless you have Justin Jefferson,

because those guys can win no matter where you put him. But when you have a guy that lines up in one spot and that's where he does most of his damage. I know Cup is more versatile than that. But it gets easier for defenses to take that guy away. And you need that guy with gravity, that second guy with gravity. Going back to the basketball analogy, I think basketball defenses are more sophisticated and better at taking away space. And I think you could say the same thing about football coverages.

And that's why you need that gravity guy now. And we interviewed Cooper Cup on the podcast a couple weeks ago. And he had mentioned a big part of their game plan was Odell Beckham because they knew they were going to sell out to take away. Cooper Cup. And when Beckham went down, it just threw their game plan out the window and they had to adjust. And they didn't feel it. Yeah. They couldn't figure it out until that last drive when they took the lead. But O'Dell Beckham was a big deal, man. They don't win this. They don't get to the Super Bowl without them. I think there's a lesson to be learned from that. Yeah. They have to honor it. Like it's like you like you just said, defenses are gotten so good in basketball and football. Basketball, if you can't

shoot, they're not going to honor you. Okay. And the football equivalent is, oh, man, we look at this tendency chart. This guy's only got like on third down, he hasn't gotten a single target. Okay, we can kick the coverage over. We can roll the coverage. We can do what we want to do. We can run two man. Or we can do we can go rob or one double on the number one guy. So when you get to that, that's you have to have guys that they honor. And I think the stat like, I don't know if this has any really correlation, but I liked it was there's the teams with two receivers that were in a top 25 percent of EPA per target. Okay, just two receivers, not a tight end. So that kind of like chiefs kind of get screwed up here. But the Cardinals, the Rams, the Packers, the Cowboys, the Chargers, the

Bengals, and then the 49ers. And I'm going to attribute that to Shanahan. It's also the Packers being in there, like, you attribute that to Rogers. Like, I think there's a lot of noise going on there that's kind of hard to dig through. Thank you. You're bringing up my point. All these guys have the top quarterbacks. Yeah. Because they have multitude options to go to. The Packers, Adams, was the third highest one. Lazzard was number one. He was off the charts for these efficiency stuff. Cobb was two, which actually shocked me. But yeah, I know that one got me. Chargers, it was Guyton was one.

Mike Williams was two. Palmer was three. Keenan Allen was four. And Keenan Allen, though, is a monster on first down's a route. He's very efficient when he does get those targets. So that's where he comes in. But it's having multitude targets. And so I thought it was pretty just, I don't know, this is the correlation of it.

But all these teams have legit quarterbacks for Kyle Shanahan downup plays for him. Like that is what like that's because they have a multitude of options. to go to. This was all coming up with the Cardinals was they couldn't run a real offense because once Hopkins went down, they didn't change shit because now they, they, the whole offense was Hopkins or Kirk working from the slot. And if that doesn't work, AJ Green on the right side. So when Hopkins goes down, it's like, oh, man, we're throwing a 33 year old AJ Green on go balls or we have Christian Kirk now trying to operate. So these guys all tie in together. I know this sounds obvious, but it's like when you break these things down, it's like, oh yeah, they all have an effect on each other.

No, you just put, you just put Deonté Wesley in Hopkins spot and don't and don't change thing. Don't change. Same player. Same player. Same place. Same targets. Everything.

Yeah, tall. Six three. Or no, actually, Hopkins. Yeah. He just plays tall. I'm sitting here staring at the list. And I think I could land on like maybe five guys. I think obviously Devante, Justin Jefferson, obviously number two.

I think Cooper Cup just based on the flexibility he provides your offense, even if the usage is a little bit different. I think the amount of different things you can be because Cooper Cup is on your team puts him into that conversation. He's a 90% snapper. like he has 90% nice. It's just the amount of different things you can do. I always go back to that two plays, a little stretch that one of their assistants showed me against the bucks where he decletes Devin White on a combo block where he had to read it in real time and then he adjusts his route for

a 70-yard touchdown in real time. It's like one of one. Like one dude can do that. And even if the usage purely as receivers is a little bit different, I think the breadth of offense you can run because him puts him in here for me. A.J. Brown's in here for me and Stefan Dix is in here for me. So a list of like five guys. Chase is different. It's a different sort of, sort of a conversation just because he was using such a hyper-specific way last year because of the way their offense is constructed. I think purely his impact on the game, he can probably get into this. But Steven, specifically what you're talking about, he's not in that conversation right now.

No, I wouldn't put him in that. I think we can't discount how important T. Higgins' presence was to chase and how it made things easier for him. Even Tyler Boy, the fact that you have a slot receiver that can play their 90% of the time. And it's like, all right, you have this one specific role because you don't need to do anything else as a rookie. If you want to talk about the basketball lineup metaphor, I think the Bengals last year were perfect example for that. They had everything you needed. And then they had like Nate said, they had the quarterback. They had the guy that can orchestrate it all. I need to get this. I need to

get this take off. Because Nate mentioned something earlier about the different routes we're seeing. I threw this by Seth Gawina and he shot it down. But all I have written in my notes is backside digs are the new crossers. Yeah. That's what I talked about on the show. That was the offensive pile last week. They're the new cross. Teams have gotten so good at taking away those crossers with like a multitude of different colleges that end up looking the same.

Like one cross is the same as three buzz. Yeah. Buzz week or the poach cover cover. I'm so glad he kept to the same point. Yeah. You need that. You need those digs. Digs are back, baby.

And then you're back on the menu. And then you got when you got the simulated pressures, they run cover two. Diggs are back, baby. I love it. The last thing I wanted to hit on here that's been part of this conversation when it comes to supply and demand of the position is this understanding that there are more receivers available in the draft than there have ever been. And that should inform some of the decision that these teams make. I don't know if that's necessarily true looking at the numbers over the last decade or so. So from 2004 through 2012, there were 57 receivers taken in the top 50, okay, and 35 in the first round.

from 2013 to 2021, another eight-year stretch. There are 58 receivers taken in the top 50 and 36 of them taken in the first round. So the number of receivers being drafted in that range of the draft has not changed that dramatically. Even if you get a little even more micro and you do the last five, like 2011 through 2015, 32 were taken in the top 50, 2016 to 2020, 30 were taken in the top 50. So it's really the same amount of receipts. receivers coming into the draft. What I do think you can say is that there are more receivers.

The floor on those guys on that group has risen. From 2011 to 2015, I said 32 guys got taken in the top 50. Here are some of those players. Kevin White, Nelson Aguilar, Bashad Perriman, Philip Dorset, Devin Smith, Dorian, Devin Smith, Doreal Green Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, Marquise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Paul Richardson, Tavon, Austin, Corto Patterson, Justin Hunter, Justin Blackman, Kendall Wright, A.J. Jenkins, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Jonathan Baldwin, Titus Young. That's 20 of the 32. And those are 20 guys who did not have NFL careers as receivers, whatever you think of Corderole Patterson. If you look at the group of 30 from 2016 to 2020, it's really just 10 or 11 of those guys that did not have NFL careers. So I think the amount of playable receivers has probably grown and the percentage of guys that you can potentially hit on is

higher than it was. But I don't think it's that much higher, Nate, where you should just say, we'll draft trail on Berks in the first round and trade AJ Brown and we'll be totally fine. I do not think we've reached that point yet. I don't even think we're close to that point. No, it's the auxiliary roles that are growing. That's rotating the snaps. That's playing what the top guys are playing less snaps and then the more guys are playing those 12 to 20 range, 12 to 30 snap range. It's because these guys, if you're an 11 personnel, like the Rams, Rams don't really rotate their guys. That's their whole schick. But if, if you were a normal team running a lot of 11, you rotate guys. So guys have to play those snaps. And teams are NFL especially

is so much about tendencies. So if you're going, well, every time Khalif Raymond's in the game, well, here we go. Here comes a shot play. Every time. Caliph Raymond's getting more run on this podcast than any other piece of football media. I guarantee you that. Right. We've mentioned him at least 20 times on this show in the past two and a half years. Just who I think of a burner. He's the perfect out of mention. Perfect one. But like that guy, but if you have guys that can play just, that can be useful.

I always say that term, but useful on these other snaps, that's what's really come up. It's receiver three through five. They're becoming more. And so that's why you see maybe second, day two picks. So second and third rounders that maybe got to other positions before. Those are, like, those are the guys that are now useful because it used to be like, oh, you can't play X and you can't play Z on the outside. And you're not like a true.

slot guy. Well, I mean, you can't play teams. All right, we'll just have another tight end or a fullback on the roster or another linebacker on the roster. Now it's like, well, shit, receiver four and five have to play teams. They have to block. They have to run real routes. Otherwise, we have tendencies. So I think more guys have value because there's more uses for them now just because of need. I mean, that's just what happens. I think we've been talking about this from the offensive perspective, but and I got at this in the article, I really think this is sort of a reaction to what defenses are doing. They're just not as aggressive as they used to be.

And maybe that's just anecdotal and I'm just watching on film. But I feel like there are more three-man rushes. I feel like there are more dropping coverages, obviously. And then I don't think teams are blitzing as much as they're not. The numbers bear that out. So man and blitz rates have dropped over the last like three to four years. I don't know the exact percentages, but I don't think it's anecdotal. I think there actually is proof in the numbers.

And football at the end of the day is always going to be a space in numbers game. And the only way to beat extra numbers in coverage is to have extra numbers running routes. And I think that is a big thing. I think you just need, like Nate said, you just need all these dudes, a group of dudes that can do a bunch of specific things. And if you could surround a star with that, that's when you get these amazing receiving cores. I think that what happened with Philly and the Titans, both in conjunction with that move and then on their own, is a really good way and a really good microcosmic kind of. drill down on this, right? The Eagles, if they hadn't swung and missed on Jalen Rago two years ago, do they trade for A.J. Brown? I think the answer is no. I think them living that, and even after

hitting on Devante Smith, knowing how hard it is to find the right receiver. And I talked, the personal guy I talked to this week explicitly said to me, it's like even if there is this conventional wisdom now that it's easier to find receivers, you can still do it. It's still easier for me to watch a defensive lineman in college and say, I know that guy's going to be able to play compared to a receiver just because the cornerback talent is not there. The way the defense is playing college, the amount of press coverage you see so

many different aspects of playing the position at that level are different than they are in the NFL. He specifically mentioned Traylon Brooks. He's like, all right, Traylon Brooks in the physical profile, what he can do with the ball in his hands? All of that is incredibly enticing. But there are so many unknowns with his evaluation how he's

going to translate into the NFL. And that's exactly what you're going to see with the Titans. They are this perfect test case. And perfect experiment of resetting your financial clock by moving on from a guy who's about to get expensive and bringing in a guy who's going to be cheap. And the early returns are that it is not going to go smoothly for them. And it typically doesn't. For every Justin Jefferson, I think there are probably going to be two or three of these that don't work out nearly as well. Like all three of us can agree that Justin Jefferson is a very, very special player.

and using him as the test case for how this can go for you might lead to a lot of mistakes for teams trying to pull off the same high wire act. One thing that's interesting to me is like we remember like in like 2014, there were there were writers like me and I was doing this like saying don't pay these quarterbacks like move on reset, trade them for picks, draft a guy and he's on his rookie contract. Like it is hard to do that because quarterbacks are so integral to like a fan base. but teams are doing that now with receivers. So we're kind of seeing that that theory about quarterbacks that we had five, 10 years ago play out in this market. And it's fascinating to me to see how it's going to work out because teams were never going to do that with like a quarterback.

They were like they signed Colin Kaepernick, I think would have been a perfect person to trade, get a bunch of picks, save that money, draft a guy. And they gave them the money, even though there were a lot of question marks about them. That's why I think what Washington just did is so interesting. because they were one of those teams that that group of McLaren, Debo, D.K. Maccalf, A.J. Brown, all those guys drafted in the same range.

What was going to happen with them? The Titans chose to move on from AJ Brown, I think in part because their quarterback's making $40 million this year. And what they did financially with the old version of their roster forced them into some decisions. Washington looked at the entire chess. I have no inside information on this. But Washington, I think, looked at the entire chess board, saw Carson Wentz making $26 million a year over the next couple of years and said, how are we going to be a best? team if we trade Terry McLaurin away and try to replace him with someone cheap. We're not.

And I think that's a totally reasonable conclusion to come to because even if these guys are somewhat expensive, I do think that having a guy that's as good as Terry McLaren is the right value proposition even as the price continues to rise for these guys. I really do. And I think the same goes for Philly. But I also think that each individual team is different. It depends on how much you're paying your quarterback. Depends on where you are in your team building cycle.

there's so many different things to take into account. I think it was the right move for the Chiefs to move on from Tyree Kill in the way that they did. So it's not a one-for-one comparison depending on where your team is. The way you've talked about Tennessee, that's how I feel about Kansas City. That's the team that I really want to see how it works out. Can't wait. That's the one that's, yeah. I mean, Chief's offense anyways, but yeah, that one I'm really curious. Packers, too, I guess.

Packers, too, same thing. I have a feeling that as we transition here to preview content over the next couple weeks, those teams will come up in that exact capacity. For now, that's all I got. Anything else you guys want to fire off here before we end this conversation? I love that. That was a blast. The 2020 3-3 receiver free agent class stinks.

So maybe that's also why you maybe saw some trades happening. So people struck out in 2022 free agency. We didn't draft the guy we like. All right. The one thing I didn't see. The one thing here is that you look at the move that Miami made for Tyreek and you look at the move. that Philly made for AJ Brown. What if your quarterback is out by after this year?

What if you get to the end of the season? It's like he's not good enough. Then what do you do? Because then you got a $25 million receiver. And even if you have that extra first round pick, can you trade for a veteran? Can you financially make that work now that you're paying your supporting cast that much?

Or do you have to reset it with a rookie because of the way you've spent money on that receiver that you just brought it? That's the only part of this that I think. think it's a little bit complicated and potentially a little bit messy because they traded for the guy when their quarterback was on a rookie deal. But if that quarterback on a rookie deal is somebody you don't want past this year, then what are you going to do? I'll tell you what the only thing that's in the back of my mind. I'll tell you the first thing you do. You call up Carolina and you get a second or third round pick for him. That's perfect. All right. On that note, that's all we got

for today. Really appreciate you guys coming around. Really appreciate Stephen. for joining us. That was a blast. Next week, dropping on Monday, all six episodes of Luck, our narrative podcast series about Andrew Luck, done by our cult's writer, Zach Kiefer. I could not be more excited about this. 25 interviews, so many voices that were close to Luck's career, understood who we as a person as a player. Zach is absolutely the right person to tell this story. I cannot wait for you guys to check it out. Those will be dropping on Monday. we will not be recording early in the week. Thankfully, because I'm going to see Rage Against the Machine,

and I don't know how my voice would be doing after that. So we're going to have a couple days off. So Monday, Tuesday, make sure that you dig through luck. All six episodes will be dropping in your feed on Monday. For now, that's all we got. I appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.