The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Are "bad" drafts an advantage for the NFL's best or worst teams?

Episode Date: April 20, 2026

Another Monday, another time opening up the mailbag. This week, Dave Helman and Derrik Klassen answer your questions about whether NFL GM's are judged on their best or worst picks, whether we should judge prospects on traits or production, the value of special teamers in the draft, and more. But first, Robert Mays interrupts his PTO to break down the Dexter Lawrence trade...why does this make sense for the Bengals and what will the Giants do with their bevy of high draft picks?Co-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. What you're about to hear today is actually a mailbag with Derek Classen and Dave Hellman that we recorded on Friday. But we had some fun news in the NFL world this weekend. So we wanted at least a couple thoughts on the Dexter Lawrence trade before we got into today's show. This was a fun one.

A bunch of different levels. There's so much to dig into here. The 10th overall pick for Dexter Lawrence is an incredibly aggressive move by a Bengals team that doesn't really make a lot of splashes like this. And so a few thoughts about that and kind of what's signal I think it sends. We're in a place now where teams have more money to spend than they can on quality outside free agents. As the cap keeps growing, there are going to be more players retained by their original teams and just fewer impact players that end up hitting the market.

Really the only way to ensure that you're going to get one of those difference-making guys is by trading for them. And I think the Bengals being the team that's willing to do this and get in on the act and the way that some other teams happen over the last couple years is really a signal that the tide has a little bit. But even in that environment, the 10th overall pick is a lot to give up. You look at analogous deals, it kind of reminds me a little bit of the prize tag for a divorce Buckner

several years ago, but Buckner was two years younger, just just heading into his second contract. Dexter Lawrence is 28, Buckner was 26. Quinn Williams went for a lot at the deadline last year, even if it wasn't the 10th overall pick. Let's just hypothetically say that 2027 first from the Cowboys is 20th overall.

You combine that with 44 this year. That's still, according to the trade charts is a more valuable asset than the 10th overall pick was. Williams is 20, was 28, the same way that Dexter Lawrence is. So I think the question's going to be, has Lawrence really taken a step back as a pass rusher? Or is he still in that upper echelon of players? And if he is, then I actually do think the price tag isn't that much different than some of the other trades that we've seen recently.

And I also think one of the other things to consider here is that it's important to move beyond the 10th overall pick in a vacuum. because part of this is focusing on the 10th overall pick this year. The prizes at the top of this draft just aren't what they have been in some other years. And that's before you even game out how the top 10 could go for a team like the Bengals. When we did our second on the clock show a couple weeks ago, I thought it was illuminating to play out how easy it would be for a team like Cincinnati who is going defense, defense, defense, to miss out in the top 10 on Reese, Stiles, Bailey, Bain, and Downs.

That's exactly what happened when we played out the exercise. And so it's possible that the Bengals, through their own work and their own intel, knew that might be on the table. And that's partially why they were willing to be so aggressive in going to get Dexter Lawrence because they didn't want to be sitting there at number 10 with all of, in their minds, the elite defensive players in this draft off the board. So it's a ton to give up when you actually think about it. We just look at the trade terms next to each other.

A 28-year-old guy for the 10th overall pick was coming off of a down year. It is a lot to give up, but I do think that there are some layers to this and some nuance that maybe makes the price tag. There's a little bit of a gap between what it would be this year and what it would be maybe in another year. From the Giants perspective, though, that drop off for defensive players as we get into the back half of the top 10 might matter a little bit less just because there are other positions they could potentially go with there. Like, let's just say Caleb Downs is gone at number 10. The Giants could still end up with like sunny styles at 5 and then they could go with. one of the receivers at 10. They could go with one of the offensive linemen like Maui Noah or Spencer Fano at 10,

put him at guard for a year, wait to you see what happens with Jermaine Illumina. I just think that flexibility because they can go different directions almost makes the 10th overall pick more valuable to the Giants that it might be for a team like the Bengals in this draft. And for the Giants, from their perspective, the one year extension that Dexter Lawrence got for 28 million, that brings him to 3 for 70. And when you think about the top of the defensive tackle market, it just isn't that big of a deal. And what that says to me is the Giants weren't overly compelled to keep him.

And so if that's your attitude and mindset about the player and you could get the 10th overall pick in this draft in a draft where you really could use that to your advantage because of all the directions you could go with it, I think this kind of was a no-brainer for the Giants at the end of the day. So a healthy price, an aggressive price for the Bengals, but someone that I completely understand from both sides and a real fun way to kind of kick off the week before the draft been some of the intrigue that's going to come along. So fund trade, excited to dig into it. Now you were going to hear today's mailbag with Derek Classen and Dave Hellman. So let's get to it right now. Derek, I got to be honest. I've heard Robert phrase the mailbag questions a million times over the years.

But having access to the mailbag for myself, it has really opened my eyes. Like this, this show has quickly become a highlight of my week because I just get excited to see what people are going to come up with. Well, I think it's also better now this year that we have the Discord because, listen, I'm sure a certain portion of our fan base is a little bit younger. They don't want to be emailing into like to get these questions. And the fact that we've got Discord here and getting in a bunch of different kinds of questions, I think is good. Are we really at a place now where email is becoming regular mail? Like young people are like, ew, write an email. I don't want to do that. If you don't got to, then, you know, if there's another avenue, I think that's the other thing.

It's like I think a certain amount of people probably would be like if that's the only way to get in a question, I'll do it. But now that the Discord is there and I don't even like it can just like instantly pop up like it's pretty nice. Which if you're listening and you want to submit a question, you can absolutely do email the old fashioned way. But please go find our Discord. It's in the show description. It is a ton of fun. I have a blast just checking in with the various channels shooting the shit with everybody when I get an opportunity. Please go find us there and please submit.

your questions. But without further ado, Beller is here with this week's batch of questions. Let's get into it. Bellar, start us off. Let's do it, you guys. I'm coming to you from Cleveland or the Cleveland suburbs this time. So different background for me. I'm in my wife's, grandma's, one of the bedrooms has like a walk-in closet. And that's where I'm sitting right now. Potting on the road is always so fun. You never know what places you'll go and what places you'll be doing a show from. It is beautiful. I've done a number of shows. From here, my wife and I've been together for 13 years. So I've done a number of shows from the Cleveland area and from this house specifically.

But it's always fun. It feels it's nice to do it. It's nice to like see my hairline slowly recede year by year when I come to my one Cleveland show. That's incredible. That's like your market for your away games. Yeah. Yeah. And you know what?

Guys, speaking of like you never know what you're going to get. We got a good one to start us off here from Rappel Rouser on the Discord, like Dave said, in the show description, join if you're not already in there. Rabble Rouser says you can either have the number one overall pick or five consecutive picks from 33rd onwards. Which of those do you want? And if you're not taking the five picks like the 33 through, what that would be 37, where's your threshold?

Where would it have to come up to for you to be like, all right, screw the number one overall? I'll take the five picks. Great, great question. Specifically also, Rappel Rouser says, this is a number one. not necessarily this draft specifically, just in a vacuum, drafts overall, which one would you want? Dave, why do you take this one first? This is a banger of a question from Ravel Rouser, and it's what I was talking about when I say I get excited

to, I look forward to the mailbag episodes because I love having my brain challenged like this. So, Derek, did you, the only natural thing you can do for this, in my opinion, is go back and look at previous drafts and see what you're working with, right? I did exactly that. I looked at like the past like five or six drafts of like 33 to 37 and I'll be honest with you. Mostly like way better than I actually would have thought like it's a lot of bangers in there. I completely agree. But I think I eventually came to a boring conclusion where the grab bag at at 33 through 37 is it's better than I probably would have guessed.

But my answer comes down to if there's a quarterback there at one that you believe in. I'm taking the quarterback every single time. And so a couple of these really illustrate that. Like like Derek just said, going back over the past few years, let's go all the way back to 2020. The grab bag at 33 through 37 is really good. You get T. Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., DeAndre Swift, Xavier McKinney, and Kyle Dugger. Like that, that's fantastic for five random guys at 33 through 37.

But are you taking that over Joe Burrow? I am not. I'm not doing that. And I think that's ultimately where I came down where I was like, if you have a modicum of belief that the quarterback is the guy, I still think you got to ride with that. I think to me, it's mostly just like caliber of quarterback. But I do think it's like there is a line. Like, listen, Fernando Mendoza is great. Cam Ward is great.

These are guys that I would take first overall in just about any draft class. I think the grab bag is like better than the chance that those guys become like a top eight quarterback in most outcomes. So I'm glad you brought up 2025. because it is 20. It's incredible. It is a fascinating thought exercise because Derek, you and I both like Cam Ward. I think we skew toward believing in him. But you can't definitively say he did enough in 2025 to like allay your concerns.

Meanwhile, your five picks would have been Carson Swessinger, Jaden Higgins, Nick Iman Worry, Quinn Sean Judkins, and Jonah Savoniah. I mean, that's freaking awesome. like all fantastic players, like rookie of the year candidates, guys who did a lot of stuff in their first year. I don't know. That's hard. Like I still think I kind of skew toward the quarterback,

but I'm not confident about it at all because we just haven't seen enough from Cam Ward. Like that is a really tough decision. Right. And again, I love Cam Ward. I think that he's going to probably be very good. But you have in,

in that group, you have five NFL starters. You have two defensive rookie of the year candidates. One was a linchpin for a Super Bowl. The other one, Carson Swastinger, is like on an all pro path to me. Like you have guys who are of that level. And then Quinnshot Junkins, not for being hurt, was like one of the best offensive rookies in the NFL last year.

Like you have some studs in that range. And there are a couple of times where like this range of the draft is not as good. Like the year before, it was a little bit shakier. Like you have Ladd McCawkey, who was obviously pretty good. But like Keon Coleman, miss, Rookeroro, Roo, Miss, Jalen Polk, miss. Drizon Newton is like useful, but probably not as good as you want. So like sometimes this is going to go poorly for you. But in a lot of years, it goes really well.

And so to me, unless the quarterback is like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, like Caleb Williams, that tier of prospect. I don't know. I kind of think about it. Okay. So what would your choice be? And obviously, you're not going to have a ton of drafts where a quarterback isn't pick one. But it just happened relatively recently. 22, Trayvon Walker goes number one overall.

Would you rather have Trayvon Walker or Logan Hall, Christian. Watson, Roger McCrary, Brees Hall, and Jalen Petrie. Definitely that bunch of players. Yeah, I think you take the- grab back. Yeah, he's a really good player, but I think I still think you lean toward quantity. Yeah, exactly.

Like, you can, I think Trayvon Walker is a better player than all of those players. Maybe not Jailin Petrie. Like, I think Jailen Petrie is also a fantastic player at his spot. But you've got, again, like a handful of starters and really only like one super missed there. Like, I think McCreery can play for. you. Hall is more of a rotational guy, but like, Brice Hall is pretty good. Christian Watson has become a great player,

Jalen Petrie. Like the grab bag in a lot of years is pretty good. I think maybe if we're pinning it down to like specific classes, the one non-quarterback exception, Miles Garrett. Like that guy was just so obviously going to be a demon that like I would take Miles Garrett every time. Okay, I didn't go that far back. But now that you've said that, I just got to see who, who were those picks. That's a good point because I didn't go back and look that up. Kevin King, Cam Robinson, Malik McDowell, Buda Baker, and Zay Jones.

You're taking Miles Garrett every single. 100% not even a question. There's only one player in there who you're like, ah, maybe the grabback would be good. But it's, no, you take Miles Garrett. Yeah, I think I'm taking the quarterback 80% of the time. But a few of the, like, looking back over six or seven draft classes, I was like, this is closer than I thought it would be. Like, there's a lot of good players picked in that range.

Really great question, though. All right, Bellar, what's the next one? All right. We'll stay in Discord for the next one. Tone Shop asks, why does it feel like certain teams are great at drafting one position, for example, Bengals wide receivers, Steelers' defensive front, Chiefs, T.Bs, when others can't ever seem to hit, for example, Ravens wide receivers. Who are some of your favorite and least favorite organizations when thinking about picking specific positional draft picks? Derek, why do you take this one first? All right, this is a good question. I think it kind of, like, how teams get good at drafting certain positions can I think depends. Like the chiefs have gotten away with DB. Bs, I think in large part because a lot of that has been in the Steve Spagnolo era. And I think he does a very good job of one, masking his defensive backs. Like the nature of the way that they just like spin their safeties around and they're doing

funky shit up front and they're throwing all these pictures at the quarterback can kind of get away with corners who are just like, hey, this guy's really big and he can jam people and we can get away with that. And I think that they've done a good job of just identifying what their scheme needs when they're picking guys in the fourth, fifth, sixth round and doing that. And so I think you can do it that way. I think what we've seen with some of the other teams that are typically really good at drafting, like we'll talk about Ravens receivers in a moment because that's a bad example.

A good example for the Ravens for a while was like them picking in the third to fifth round these 260 to 270 found defensive ends who maybe weren't super productive, but they were just glass eating type of ass kickers. And like they just really knew exactly what type of player they wanted. The one that always comes to mind to me is like Zedarius Smith. Like I think they got him in the fourth or fifth round after his teammate Bud Dupree went in the first round. And it's just like they were so good at identifying that type of thing. And so that comes to mind to me.

And then one that I think is kind of instructive of what I'm talking about. The Packers used to be really, really good at drafting like mid-round offensive linemen because they would take guys who were maybe a little bit smaller, maybe a little bit more undersized, but they were fantastic athletes and had a lot of starts typically at left tackle. like it was such a they had narrowed down the scope so much to like what they wanted what fit their system how they were going to do it that you just kind of miss less often because you know exactly what kind of guys you're swinging at and what guys in that range are actually good more recently they've actually kind of moved away from that sort of formula they've gotten guys who are a little bit they'll take different sorts of athletes and I think it has led them astray a little bit and the offensive line has fallen apart so to me it is a lot about just like process and knowing exactly what you need I I also think a more cynical part of this is, and I'm not saying the person asking the question is wrong, but when you have some huge successes, it's easier to overlook the things that don't go so well. I mean, the Bengals just spent a top 100 pick on Jermaine Burton, and that did not go well at all. But when you nail Jamar Chase and T. Higgins and Andre Yoshavas, it's easier to say.

And Chase is cheating, too. Like when we're talking top 10 picks, like that's cheating. Like, yeah, Chase is very much a player where it's like, yeah, I mean, everybody would have drafted that guy and felt good about it. But like when when you knock a few guys out of the park, it's easier to look back at your missteps and say, ah, you can't win them all. And whereas like a, you know, if it's a team that's constantly looking, if it's the Ravens not being able to get receiver right, you're just like, ah, they just they can't do anything right. They can't draft that position. So I think I call it confirmation bias or whatever, but I think that can color things. To go to the point of the question, teams I think of two division rivals that do the similar things really well.

Obviously, if Philadelphia drafts an offensive lineman, I'm just like, okay, like this guy is going to be good, which I am interested to see if that changes with Jeff Stoutland moving on. Like that's been a cheat code for the Eagles organization for so long. I'm curious to see if they can keep that going. Because I feel like Max Ionotcher is like kind of in their range of the draft. And people keep putting them to them because obviously Lane Johnson probably only has one more year. But it's like, does that style of prospect sound as appealing if you don't have Jeff Stoutland in the building? I don't know. That's a great point.

I mean, it would not surprise me at all. I might even go as far as to say I expect Philly to draft an offensive tackle. And some of the, whether it's Max Ionach or Caleb Lomu, whoever they like. because it's the Eagles, you're like, oh, they're going to whip that guy into shape. But with Jeff Stoutland there, is that something we should just take for granted? I don't know. And the other one, I mean, the Eagles have success stories ranging all over the draft. I would say for the Cowboys, it's more big time offensive line picks.

Like when they use a big pick on an offensive lineman, it usually goes pretty well for them. I guess the jury is still out on Tyler Guyton, but the vast majority of their big time O line picks have worked out very well. And even with Dighton, it's not like, you know, Evan Neal level embarrassment. It's just like, oh, you've seen some good flashes. Like, he's been solid, just got banged up. And we just don't know, like, what the ceiling is. Like, the fact that they're worst guys to, like, a startable level tackle is pretty insane hit record. That's a great point where it just looks bad because all of their other big offensive line picks are like on the all pro track.

And like, Zach Martin's going to the Hall of Fame. Like, that's a tough standard to live up to. Okay, we're going to stick in Discord, you guys. Let's go with Discord for the next question. this one is CW8D. CW8D. I don't know if he knew. Robert definitely said he wasn't going to be on this episode.

So I don't know if he knew this when he put this in. But we're getting a special teams question without Robert here. If you knew you were getting a Matthew Slater level special teamer, how high would you draft him? What value should teams put on special teams contributors in the draft? Dave, what do we got here? Special teams question. I know the discord's going to be pumped about this.

I love it. I and I'm the special teams guy. I do think I would draft this player. Like if you're yeah, if you're talking about Matthew Slater like an annual contender to be a pro bowl, pro bowl representative on special teams, that dude who can hold all your special teams together,

very, very valuable. You're still probably talking about like 20 snaps per game. You know, like it's still, it's just not that much opportunity to influence. a game. I do think it's worth drafting in the same way that some kickers are worth drafting. I don't think I could consider this until like the sixth round, though. But like every single year,

we see the value of these guys in the eyes of coaches in particular. Like every year, there's a cornerback or a linebacker where it's like, that guy's making the team again. Like he's beating out another rookie draft pick again. It's like, yeah, he can play four different special teams. He's going to be awesome for you on punt coverage. He's going to be, you know, he's going to be great on kick coverage. He's going to give you 25 great snaps a game. And that's really, really valuable to coaching staffs. Is it valuable enough that I could draft it before like the sixth round? I don't think so. But it's definitely worth drafting. Yeah, it's one of those things where you see like a number of all pros and like 10 straight pro bowls. And you're like, oh, of course you want that on your team.

But it's like, again, you're only affecting maybe a dozen snaps a game. And none of them are really when you have the ball. I think that's the other thing too is like not being able to affect the snaps when you really have the ball. I think it's kind of what hurts you a little bit. I would probably still say fifth round though. And the only reason I say that is rounds one through three are like, I am drafting a starter or at least an idea of a starter. Like in the third round, you're going more for like projects and stuff potentially or lower end guys, but still. Fourth round is more the high end backup can play some serious snaps if I want to.

Maybe he blossoms into the starter. To me, by the time you get into the fifth round, it's like a lot of these guys are getting cut. And so if you tell me for sure that that guy's going to be Matthew Slater, I'm pretty open to that, even if it's only going to be, you know, a dozen snaps a game that he's helping me. And he's not really a returner. That's a valid point. And Gunner, Special Teams glue guy is also nowhere near as mentally dependent as kicker. And like drafting, drafting a kicker high scares the bejesus out of me because it's a lot of pressure to put on such a mental position. And I firmly believe that that can just break guys and dudes who would, I am a firm believer that the kicker that you drafted in the fourth round whose struggles would have been much better if you drafted him in the seventh round because it's like way less pressure.

Like that's, that is my conspiracy theory. And but like you remove that from the equation when you're talking about, you know, punt coverage being a gunner. And so if you're, and those guys can play forever, by the way. So if you're telling me I'm getting that for a decade, yeah, that's probably worth a fifth round pick. That's a good point because nobody's going to really notice like who or which gunner lost them is like losing them games consistently. When your kicker is like missing 45 yard kicks, you know. You're keeping track. That's the fun thing about gunners and stuff like that is it's pure hidden yardage, right?

Where like the ball knowers know that. Like the ball knowers are like, oh, they did like the other team didn't return a punt all day and it gave us this much. hidden yardage and we won the field position battle and that's a big part of why we won the game, that's not dominating sports talk radio for the next two days after a game, the way that kicker struggles might. All right, we got plenty more questions, but first we're going to take a quick break. All right, Bellar, what's our next one? All right, let's go to the email because the emailers, they still have great questions. And this one comes to us from Jake Ivy. Jake says, do you think that GMs are judged more on first round misses than later round hits? John Lynch is rarely in the conversation

for top GM, even though the 49ers have consistently been a top 10 team since he became their GM. His first rounds haven't been great. Trey Lance, Rubin Foster, Javan Kinlaw, but his later rounds have produced excellent players. George Kittle, Trey Greenlaw, Juan Jennings, Tallano, Hufanga. There are also a ton of current NFL players that have come out of the Lynch regime. Is this just first round failure bias? Derek, what say you on this? So I feel like it's a different question looking at like GMs generally versus John Lynch.

And I think a lot of that reason is that one in that building in general, Kyle Shanahan gets the credit. Fair or not fair, that is kind of just how that building goes. But I do think that even outside of that building specifically, in a lot of cases when you have a head coach who is like a very prominent figure, whether it's offense or defense, but especially offense, as a lot of the guys are in the NFL today, when they're hitting on these fourth, fifth round picks and stuff, it's usually the way it gets spun is like, ah, man, the coach just had a really good idea for what this player was going to be and he knew what to do with him in this system like to me like puka nakuwa is another example of this like they were clips circulating around when the ramp like before the rams drafted uh nakua of of sean mcvay being like i know what this guy's going to be in our system i can see the vision for him and obviously i don't think they knew that he would be that good but it's clearly like the coach has an outsized

portion of hey i know what this guy can be in our system let's take a chance on this and you know maybe there's some buildings where that is less true like I think potentially kind of like we were talking about the Ravens. I think when they were drafting with Ozzy Newsom and earlier on in the Eric DeCosta era, it might have been more of just like a systematically this is how we draft players. Same thing with the Packers and offensive line and a lot of their other parameters of not really wanting undersized receivers and all this stuff for a very long time. Like I think a lot of that was just baked into how they did it.

And so maybe you can give the GMs and decision makers more credit. But I do think that there are a lot of cases where once you get past like the second, third round and stuff. It's a lot of coaches. And it might not even be the head coach. It might be like skill position coaches and stuff like that or coordinators being like, hey, I've got a plan for this guy. Let's take a shot. And so that's, I think, generally why GMs don't get as much credit for that type of stuff. Yeah. My answer to the question is mainly it's hard to, it's hard to formulate an opinion on John Lynch. Like, I don't, I don't think I have a negative opinion of them. It's just hard to parse out who gets the credit for that when Kyle Shanahan has such an outsized voice.

So I think the only fair way to do it for me is like just to make sure everybody shares in everything. Like I definitely, I think it's a valid point, Derek, to say that like coaching and scheme can have so much to do with guys that you take particularly later on. But I don't think it's fair to give Kyle Shanahan credit when they do something awesome and blame John Lynch when they do something stupid. So I just kind of lump them all together and just say, yeah, like, I, I think very highly of the 49ers organizationally, just in general. Like, their whole operation is very enviable to me. But clearly, they're not infallible. And I do think you have to say, it's not just first round failure bias. I mean, the Trey Lance thing is one of the most

horrendous decisions in recent memory. It's really, really bad, especially when you, obviously, trade and work out, you wasted all that capital. And the guy you could have drafted by just stay and pat at your pick is Michael Parsons. So that's just a generational fumble. And everybody in San Francisco deserves to wear that. And so I think it's fair that that colors your perception of them. But it's also kind of impressive that you could screw up that badly and still have a generally favorable reputation, which I think they do and they deserve.

Oh, 100%. like John Lynch I think is good at the job. I just think like perception wise, that's kind of how we arrive, where we arrive with them. And then I think too, it's like part of the reason we maybe don't do as much, like maybe like less need for example in Los Angeles

gets a little bit more credit for how they operate it. I think he, whether right or wrong, again, gets a lot of credit for the like F them picks style that they operated under, which I think is probably as much Sean McVeigh as it is less need. But I think because you're moving around that much capital,

the GM ends up getting more credit for that rather than just like sticking where you are in the fifth round and drafting George Kittle. I think people look at that and go, well, well, Kyle Shanahan just knew what to do with him. And, you know, I think the GM just doesn't get as much credit for that type of stuff in a lot of cases. That does make it interesting to think about which GMs really do get a lot of credit and the obvious one is Howie Roseman. But I think a big part of that is just because he's survived multiple coaching changes and built successful teams independent of who was coaching the Eagles. But you're right, it is interesting to think across the league landscape about like, which GMs do we say that about? Like, oh, my God, how we did it again, whereas, you know, guys like John Lynch and Les Sneed are going to be tied to their very successful head coaches, whether it's fair or not. That's what it is.

We only do that really with GMs who have survived to multiple head coaches and then built very good rosters after that. But there's just not that many of those guys. That's not a normal thing. But John Schneider. It's not a normal. Yeah, John Schneider is a pretty good one. And he's a funny one too because obviously like the vacillations in his draft history have been extreme. I would say like obviously having one of the best draft classes that led to the Legion of Boom and a couple of good stuff after that.

And then having a pretty firm dip for there for a few years after that. But it really is mostly just guys who have survived the multiple head coaches and rebuilt the thing. I remember we talked about it in the wake of the Super Bowl. I think we talked about it at Levi's in that postgame show, just like, who did more for their long-term image and, like, historical reputation than John Schneider? Because there's definitely an easy to imagine world where it's like, ah, he was, he had one of the greatest heaters of all time from like 2010 to 2013 and then just kind of petered out and they never really reached those highs again. And instead, they tore it all down and look at them now. Like it's just, I mean, it is like the perception is so radically better than it could have been if they had kept the, you know, just kept the pace they were on. One actually, other guy who clearly does get a lot of credit and blame because of the insane way that they operate, Mickey Loomis with the saints.

Like that that is obviously a place where people are like, that guy's running the show, the decisions and the draft picks. That's, that's all him. And obviously like Peyton did have like some voice when that was all happening. but I think because again he's survived like multiple different iterations of the team like he gets a lot of credit which but I would also say that's a example of like living long enough to see yourself become the villain because like the saints in the Loomis Peyton era have had some insane drafts like ridiculously good but if you do it long enough without that success I mean there are plenty of saints fans that are like please get Ricky out of that chair but then maybe you hit on Tyler Shuck and everybody changes there too and I guess guess we'll see what the Saints do moving forward. But I guess to answer the question more tidily, like I don't, I don't have a negative perception of John Lynch. I just think it's, it's San Francisco is one of those weird buildings where it's all wrapped together. And I don't think you can evaluate Lynch without Shanahan and vice versa.

All right, Bellar, what else you got? All right, we're going to go back to Discord for this one. The Tinker Dog says, Traits First Production. I find it very sketchy when a guy on the freaks list turns out to be two to have three career sacks and eight. Freakslist writer Bruce Feldman going to be with us for our draft show on night one. Check us out on YouTube. We'll be the Thursday night, Friday night, don't miss it. Anyway, back to the question.

I'm surprised when guys who kill it in the P4 are afterthoughts because they don't broad jump far enough in shorts. To which end of the scale do you personally lean? Who are some examples both in the current draft class and in the past that are successful versions on either end of the scale? Who are your Mike Mamula award winners for being unsuccessful versions on either side? Dave, this one's for you. Love this question because it's just a chance to remember some guys. Like that's where my brain goes when I do this. And so I am a firm believer in the tape.

And like if you just watch them, if you watch the guy play football and you watch it enough to get a good idea of who he is and you and you see what kind of player he is, eight out of ten times that's not going to steer you too wrong. Like even if you're just aiming for the fairway and trying to make par. Like it maybe you won't ever win big, but you just won't be embarrassingly wrong very often, in my opinion. Now, my greatest lesson about this and my greatest failure, love him though I do,

is Bryce Young because I spent the entire lead up to that draft saying, what are we doing? I don't give a shit if he's 5'9. Like he was doing this at Alabama. He was doing this against guys that are going to be in the league. Like Alabama and the SEC and the Big Ten as well. well, but like those two conferences playing in the college football playoff, playing against Georgia every year, that's as close to the NFL as it gets until you're in the NFL. And so having

watched him do that for two years at Bama and just look like a magician out there, I knew in my soul that we were overthinking all the stuff about his frame and his arm and whether he was big enough to hold up and all that stuff. And, and here we are with Bryce Young. We don't have to relitigate his entire career. But that was a very important experience for me where I was like, okay, you do have to take some things into account other than just is he a good college player. And I think it depends so vastly to me on the position, right? Like quarterback, I think is one where we've kind of landed where it's like traits and

production are kind of a necessity. Like you really do probably need to have both to really be that level of a quarterback prospect. I'm glad in the framing of the question, it starts with, I'm sorry. sketchy of a guy who's on the freaks list and turns out to have three career sacks. There are, that is the one position where you can take guys who did not produce for shit in college, but can become like really, really good NFL players. Ziggy Ansah had four and a half college career sacks.

He had like 50 in his first handful of years in the NFL. Like he was a really good player until injuries. He had 44 in his first five seasons and hit 10 plus twice in that span before some injuries kind of started to knock away at him. Trayvon Walker. Obviously he goes first overall, but was not a super productive college player, but freaky, freaky athlete with an incredible build. He just got paid a ton of money because he's clearly a good NFL player. Daniel Hunter was another guy who famously did not produce for your LSU Tigers. I'm glad you brought up DeNeal because he's he isn't, he's another in my pantheon of all time whiffs.

And I'll never forget, I was covering the Cowboys at the time. and a Cowboys assistant coach, like, saw me in the hallway and was like, we got to talk about your boy from LSU. Holy shit. This guy is a freak. Like, he's, he's going to be awesome. And I was like, if you say so, he had like four and a half sacks in college. Like, really? I, okay.

Like, I just, I did not have this high opinion of DeNeal Hunter, even though he was a good player for my school. And he's got a shot to be in the Hall of Fame. Like, every time DeNeal Hunter does something fun, which is. like every week. I'm just like, holy shit, I was wrong about that guy. Like traits do matter.

And the pass surfing one is interesting too because sometimes it's just kind of like, how were they used? Like that was an LSU team that like did not really let their ends pin their ears back the way that some other defenses will let you do. Same thing was true of Trayvon Walker. It was a lot of like he's playing four eye.

He's playing five tech. He's a run first player, all this stuff. And so it's like, yeah, of course he didn't really develop his chops to be that level of player. But the traits were just absolutely.

absolutely off the charts. And then to answer the question the other way, there are plenty of good, especially at edge rusher again, where some guys are super productive and just do not have NFL traits. Jarvis Jones, I think, is one of the most famous examples. Like insanely productive, really good player at Georgia in the SEC, just did not have like the explosiveness, the bend, the length to be a high level NFL player. And then the other one who was a similar build and actually like insanely productive and was a really fun college player to watch. Haoli Kikaha played at Washington like 10 years ago. Speaking of Saints drafts, I haven't thought about that name in a while.

I was looking, I knew he was productive, but I had to look it up. Do you know how many sacks he had in his last two college seasons? It's an obscene number. I couldn't give you the number, but I remember it being a really, really big number. He had 31 and a half sacks in his last two years. He had 19 his senior year. And so that's one of those things that, like, you see that and you're like and that guy has to be good. That's too many sacks to be good.

But it was another thing where like he was really technically refined and pretty strong for the college level, but just did not have like NFL level bend and burst. And so it just never really came together for him at that level. And so I think there's probably a lot to untangle here just depending on what positions we're talking about. Like, you know, we've talked about this before. Like being a freak athlete at like safety is probably not as necessary because it's such a mental position. And like, it can help you, obviously, but it's probably not as necessary. On the edge, man, like, it's a prerequisite to be like that level of a player. A couple other that come to mind. Like I said, I just, I just dug back through all my triumphs and failures during draft season. I remember people killed the Raiders for drafting Colton Miller.

We've talked about this a few times in this draft cycle because of the offensive tackles that are available. Very traitsy pick, very developmental guy. plenty of people had third round grades on him and the Raiders took him 15th he's never been to a pro bowl he's not an all pro tackle but nothing to feel ashamed about drafting that guy 15th like you would probably do that all over again if you were the Raiders uh and then another one the other way that i remember do you remember how terrified everyone was of Orlando brown junior as a draft prospect they're just like this is the slowest heaviest footed guy in the world he's not going to you He's not going to be able to block anybody in the NFL, and he falls all the way to 83. And I think he went to like three straight Pro Bowls in the prime of his career, helped the Chiefs win a Super Bowl. Like maybe maybe a case of people overthinking things a little bit, I would say. 100%. But and like this does apply like there are just so many examples.

I'm remembering other ones who was. D.K. Metcalf. Do you remember people freaking out about how D.K. couldn't bend? He is why nobody runs the three cone anymore. Like legitimately he is why nobody. does that anymore. The funny thing about D.K. is like a lot of those concerns were perfectly valid and he's still just a freaky enough guy that it didn't matter. Like he had a great career anyway, even with

those very real concerns. I think that's my favorite thing about D.K. Metcalf is like everyone was kind of right and then just the good stuff like shined enough that he ended up being like a pretty good NFL player. The other one I was going to go to on like the bad end of like super productive college player rugged. You love the tape. Cleland Farrell was awesome at Clemson, but just like not NFL level like superstar traits at that position. I was doing the draft live with Dane that year and the stunned silence when Cleland Farrell went off the board in the top five. It was it was memorable. It was just like, whoa, like expect the unexpected, but not that unexpected. Yeah, not that high. I mean, C.D. Lamb being the third receiver

off the board in his own draft class still crazy to me. I, Never understood how that happened. To bring it to bring it to the current year, I mean, what a, what a phenomenal year to, to bear this experiment out. I know,

like, we've beat it into the ground at this point, but like, this is a very much, like, do you trust the tape or do you want to buy in traits, buy in on traits draft class between Ruben Bain, obviously,

with his very unique body type, Caleb Downs. Man Sir Delane, Man Sir Delane is not a bad athlete, but like the traits. are just not freaky if you're talking about top corner back off the board. Yeah. If you're a corner, like freaks go

with it. It's like Devin Withers swim to super athletic, like, Patrick Peterson is what I imagine when like a corner goes like top five. And he's like, he's a great player, but he's not Pat Pete. But turn on his tape of him blanketing everybody in the SEC and you're like, okay, I can get on board with this. Your guy

Mackay Lemon is a fascinating case study here. And to go back to your point about edge rushers who don't produce in college, I'm not willing to plant my flag that he is going to become a great player. But having lived the Daniel Hunter experience, I refuse to, like, not, I refuse to shut the door on Keldrick Falk. I feel like so many people are, are down on him.

And I'm just like, I don't know, man, guys who weigh 280 don't typically move like that. And I'd be pretty intrigued to see what he could look like with some NFL coaching. That's just me. And he's only, like, 20 years old. It's just like, guys who are, like, built like that at that age who are at that athletic. It's just like they don't make a whole lot of those. And that is a position where you can be pretty willing to take that swing. Because another thing that I would say about that too is specifically on the edge, the guys who are that big, that level of athlete, that explosive.

I remember writing this about Bud Dupree actually when he came out of college. He was like too thick and explosive to be bad. Is he going to be like an all pro? Is he going to be great? I don't know. You know, there were some concerns with him in terms of past rush movies and bend and all that stuff. but he was just too big and explosive to be bad. And that's kind of how his career turned out.

Like he ended up having he turned into like a solid NFL career. He's not like a game changing player. But like he was a good number two for a while, still a decent rotational player. Like I think that's kind of the gambit you have to take. Whereas with some of these other guys who are, you're betting on the film but are outliers in other ways, sometimes those guys can just be like out of the league level bad because they're just not up to it athletically.

And that's ultimately why I come down. in the cowardly world where I'm like, I'd way rather just make safe bets with guys that definitely look good in college and I can definitely picture them in the NFL. It's like Robert's whole thing with what I'm looking for on tape is, is he a good player? Which, like, you're going to miss on some guys with that approach,

but you'll probably be fine in the long run. And if that's cowardly, I can live with it. All right, Bellar, what's our next one? Okay, this next one.

I love this one for like, not only the question itself, but for everything, it makes me feel. It's from someone named Dirkalus who this was a, this was an AMA, Derek, right? With you on Discord? They sent this to me and my AMA. I did like a week or so ago. And I was like, that's good. I would like to talk through this with somebody, actually.

So right there, like Dirkalus, shout out for being in the AMA with Derek. Derek, doing your job great by bringing this to the whole group or doing all that. I'm also 41 years old and a huge Dirk Nowitzky fan. And so in my friend's group text. Every time one of us turns as a birthday, we're in our age 41 year, I send just a photo of Dirk with his 41 jersey. And then Dirk Alice is Dirk and from Germany. So here we go. Here's the question.

Do you think the quote, bad draft class this year is more of an advantage for good teams or bad teams? Derek, what do you think? I think if like I have to pick one, it's probably for the good teams. And the reason I would say that is like, if you are one of the bad teams. teams who are in the top 10 you are thinking like okay season just went terribly we got five or six wins but hey jimar chase is going to be there at fifth overall like we're we're in a good spot here and there's just like there are some good players to be had in the top 10 this year it does not feel like there are that many like bonafide that guy is an absolute superstar

that guy's a freak of nature that sort of thing and so these teams that are drafting you know fourth fifth sixth overall they might still get good players guys who can be pro bowlers Are they as, you know, locked into getting guys who can be potential all pros? I don't think so. Whereas on the flip side, I think in most classes, like, the talent that you're getting from 15 to 50 is more or less the same in a lot of years. You have some classes that are a little bit deeper and go into maybe the 20s of guys who are like potential all pros.

But I think in general, you're getting a lot of classes where 15 to 50 is like kind of the same. And so the fact that like the good teams are not really hurt by the way that they're class is shaped, but the bad teams are clearly hurt in the sense that they might not get a all pro cornerstone player. I think that's kind of why I landed where I landed. The range of first round grades from the average NFL team, like every spring when I talk to people and get a gauge for how they feel about the class, 16 is usually a number you hear. And I would say between 16 and 20 true first round grades, like 32 players are going to be picked in

the first round, but that's not how the NFL sees it. Like the NFL is typically willing to give 16 to 20 first round grades out. Maybe if it's a sick year, you'll have 22. That's like a best case scenario. And this year, the people I've talked to, it's somewhere between like 12 and 14. And so I think that's the big difference. It's just not loaded at the top. And so, yeah, I think it has to benefit the better teams if you're just

not missing out on like that high of a caliber of draft prospect. And if the draft, if the grades all start to look the same after like the first 10 or 11 players off the board, then that's a very fun place to be if you're picking at the back end of the round. So yeah, I would agree. All right. We're going to take one more break and answer a few more questions right after that. Okay.

We come back from break with a question from Brett Maynard. Brett says, listening to you go through the mock draft shows by which he means, On the clock, last episode coming tomorrow, picks 26 through 32. He says the pick Lance Zerline made for Detroit spurred a question I've had for some time. No, I'm not here to complain about you guys selecting my most dreaded choice for the Lions and Caden Proctor. But when you were talking about the idea of players moving to guard instead of playing tackle, you cited recent examples of J.C. Latham and Evan Neal, two similarly freaky Bama O. Lyman, who have been, shall we say, disappointing as high picks.

Stack that on top of other Tide OTs that have been drafted highly and haven't worked out. Richard Will's, Jonah Williams, Alex Leatherwood, DJ Fluker. My question is, how much does scouts or teams look at a trend like that and factor into their process? Does it matter, or do scouts just put aside that stuff unless there is some clear specific scheme challenge

looking at you, Tennessee wide receivers, that would hurt a player's projection to the NFL. Obviously, Bama has gone through a recent coaching change so there isn't a clear through line with prospects to the past, but I'm still curious about how scouts work to separate the data and if they pursue other angles to understand maybe why this could be a trend. Dave, what do you got on this one?

I really love this question because it made me think something completely new by the time I was done considering it. Because you see the initial premise of the question. And it's very easy to say, you can't helmet scout. That's lazy. And failures of past players are not an indicator of what's going to happen with a new guy just because Caden Proctor went to Alabama. But then you look at it and you're like, holy shit. through the entirety of this run that Alabama's been on, they really have not produced a top-tier first-round offensive tackle.

Like, I'm old enough to remember Andre Smith going all the way back to like when the Bama dynasty was just getting started. And you get like, look, obviously not every Bama player drafted highly is going to pan out, but you can look across the gamut and find a Pro Bowl, all-pro caliber guy at pretty much every other position. but it has been a problem at offensive tackle. And that kind of makes me curious where I'm like, okay, past results are not necessarily a future indicator, but why has this not really worked for anyone that's come out of Alabama?

I don't think there's a definitive answer to this, but Brett mentioned problems with scheme at places like Tennessee and the way we perceive their receivers. I don't think it's a scheme problem at Alabama. I do know, and from talking to people, Alabama does have a reputation going back years under Nick Saban. Those guys get coached and practice very, very hard. Like it is a physical, grueling, demanding place to play football, or at least it was under Nick Saban, which I'm not here to argue with the results.

Obviously, they were incredible. But that is something that NFL evaluators have long been cognizant of is like, hey, a guy coming out of Alabama might have a few more minds. on his odometer than somebody coming out of another program. Is that why it hasn't worked out for tackles specifically? I don't know. But I do think at a certain point, these are things that evaluators are at least cognizant of.

But on the flip side, that I would also say Alabama recruits at a level where these guys are going to be athletic enough and tracy enough that you want to take the chance anyway. So that's not really a definitive answer, but I think you have to consider all of that when you're looking at these guys. I think that's a huge part of it is like the good schools that can recruit the good players will have more guys.

And they're just, you're probably going to end up with more busts. And there are some examples on the flip side of like where they clearly develop it really, really well. Like Alabama was safeties. If they had a guy who was going to be a top 50 safety under Nick Saban, I wanted him every time. And like almost all those guys were good. Ohio State receivers have a very high hit rate. Those guys tend to be good. But in a lot of cases, like these schools that are just pumping out a million players,

you're just going to naturally have a lot of misses. I think part of it too, like what you were mentioning specifically was Saban-era offensive linemen. It was a lot of guys who were getting beat up with the way that they played. And the way that, like, they ran the ball a ton for a lot of those stages. And so I think that that was especially earlier on, like until Derek Henry was probably gone, I think was probably the last of that. But also a lot of these guys who were misses were just like massive people.

And sometimes those guys can be prone to just like they get banged up a little bit and things just don't, do you can't calibrate for how the movement is going to go in the NFL, like Evan Neal is that way. I think J.C. Latham is like, he's going to be fine, but maybe not, you know, hits his ceiling the way that people wanted, but like, I think it would be okay. I don't want to, I don't want to call

Jason Latham. No, Jay Cidtham is not a bust. He's definitely not a bust. He just maybe won't like he won't, maybe won't be an all pro caliber player. Exactly. And then like, Fluker, I think was in that bunch. Alex Leatherwood is also an interesting one because I think a lot of people

knew that he was overdrafted and overrated. Much like Cleland Farrell. I think that was the same draft. It was. Yes. Like Cleland Farrell and Alex Leatherwood both. I was sitting next to Dane when it happened and we were just blown away. We were like, I think this guy's a good player, but what's happening? Like that was a, that was a theme for the Raiders that year.

Yeah, 100%. So like I just, to me, it mostly boils down to like, this is a school that was able to consistently recruit that level of athlete. And I think maybe what you could say is that. that these guys are getting bumped up a half of a round, a round later than they should, because they played for the schools they played for and because they, you know, were consistently in high leverage games and stuff like that. Like, does Jonah Williams go in the first round if he plays for like Syracuse or something?

Maybe not. But like, he still clearly would have been a guy who was going to be on the NFL's radar. And so I don't think it has that much to do with Alabama. You know what I mean? Do I still think it's interesting? Like I said, of course. Alabama's produced 10 million amazing football players. Some of them are not going to pan out the way you would prefer.

But I really think I could go position by position and identify like an all-pro caliber player at every other spot except offensive tackle, which is I don't know what that means, but I do think it's interesting. It is. Now I'm trying to think of like who is even the best one of this bunch of all the Alabama offensive tackles who have been drafted. Like, I don't like, I mean, Latham is fine, I guess, but like, I don't know who it would be. And because, too, it's not just, it's not just offensive lot.

Like, they've produced some decent interior players, which I think is why this is interesting. Landon Dickerson, Ryan Kelly. Tyler Booker's young, but he looks very promising. Like, it's, it's strange. And granted, it's not a huge sample size. They haven't had that many offensive tackles go in the first round. but I just like their hit rate everywhere else is pretty damn good and and this is a guy a little bit of a you know it's an outlier I guess and like I said I do think teams keep stuff like this in mind but at the end of the day also I mean Caden Proctor is a great example and you can come up with several reasons why you might be worried about drafting him but guys that big who move that way will get drafted after a certain point like teams will just take the risk and say Yeah, but if we can get our hands on him, holy hell, what a player he could be.

And so, yeah, like, I mean, teams will take chances on guys like that. I think I have the answer, by the way, barring however J.C. Latham's career turns out, it's probably Cam Robinson. Yeah. Right? It's probably the best one. And even he has been a guy who has, like, become like a swing tackle. Hey, Ben. After this year, we're going to be saying Jedrick Wills.

Oh, God. Oh, come on. He's a bear now, right? He is. He is. Oh, God. That's funny. In Ben, we trust.

All right, Beller, what's the next one? Yes, indeed. And Ben, we trust. And Conrad, we also trust to ask a good question. Conrad Johansson. Also, TD from Houston. His name in Discord is Conrad. He signed it as TD.

So Conrad, TD, I just want to make sure you got your full credit. We'll give you both names. And here's the question. My question is about the ongoing distance between the NFL game and the college football game and how that relates to the NFL draft. I feel like it's been a long time since I've heard this is a lot. loaded draft. It seems like every year more and more we hear this is a week drafter, it's a bad year to have a top pick, or picks 15 to 50 are basically the same. Derek said that like 22 minutes ago or something like that responding to another question. Could these sentiments be related to how

differently players are asked to operate in college versus the NFL making those positions harder to evaluate? I've heard the pod talk about how inside linebacker playing quarterback development are egregiously different between college and the pros, but could that same concept be leading to an overall challenge of evaluation that makes us think every draft now is a weak one. Derek, what do you say here? I think there probably is a little bit of that, that like the college game being so divorced kind of from the NFL, especially in terms of some of the RPOs, you're getting more like three down structures without edge players in the college game.

You're getting a lot more like three safety structure in the college game. Just the way that the hash is work, I think you get less film that feels like it's NFL stuff. or you're having to do a little bit more projecting. And so you can look at the traits of a guy and be like, that's clearly an NFL player. But maybe we're getting less NFL like reps than we were like 20 years ago and stuff. But I will say this. I think very recently we had a draft class that was loaded.

2024 was loaded at the top. Obviously you have all the quarterbacks, right? Like Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May. People thought Marvin Harrison was a star at wide receiver. Joe Alt, same thing at tackle. Malik, Neighbors was in that class. Like J.C. Latham, I think people were excited about because you just don't get athletes like that at that position. Roma Dunesay people loved. Like Brock Bowers was in that class. And so I know that class was kind of weird defensively and didn't necessarily have like many too many superstars on defense. But like that to me did feel like a class where people were not saying it sucks to have a top 10 pick in this year's class.

Like that was a class where I think people were like, if you got one, you're probably going to get a pretty good guy. I lovingly and respectfully just don't really agree with the premise of the question. And I'm like you just you made the point for me just there. 2024 was a huge draft. I mean, six quarterbacks wound up going in the top 12. And while that might have been a surprise, just having three real deal quarterbacks.

I mean, Caleb and Drake were identified multiple years ahead of time as like, whoa, you got to watch this guy. And then Jaden was the Heisman trophy winner. Eight offensive tackles went in the first round of that draft. And yeah, we had to wait a little while for Latu and Verse to go off the board. But people were very excited about those players. People were very excited about Quinnion Mitchell.

Like that was not a rags to Rich's story. Everybody loved him. Byron Murphy was there. Like people loved Byron Murphy. Then you had, you know, the Combine record holder for the 40 and Xavier Worthy at the back of the round. 24 was loaded. And then I would say as recently as 2021, that was obviously a year where, again,

Trevor was the prince who was promised. I mean, we were talking about Trevor two years ahead of time. You had three other quarterbacks. The COVID guys, everybody knew the COVID guys were all going to be amazing. Like Chase, Penae Sewell, Rishon Slater. I don't think, like nobody knew Micah Parsons was going to be the best past runner, the best young pass rusher in the NFL, but people were still excited about him.

Because like Parsons is a good one though because like a player as talented as he is goes like fifth overall in this class. You know what I mean? But that class was so loaded that a player like him falls a little bit. I mean the the Pat Sertan J.C. Horn debate that year was nuts. Like people were, you know, cutting off family members over their opinion on J.C. Horn or Pat Sertan. Like that was that was a loaded draft. So I've made this point a few times and I worry that I start to sound like. like a grumpy old man, but the draft is starting to remind me of S&L in the sense where no matter

what, people are like, ah, S&L's not funny anymore. It used to be funny. And then it's like, no, it's always been this show. It's just, it's hard to make this show every week. And over time, you only remember the good stuff. And so the shit from 15 years ago is amazing by comparison to now. I'm old enough to remember. People did not like. SNL when Kristen Wigg and Bill Hader and Jason Sudecass were on it. And now it's been 20 years and people were like, it'll never be that good again. Like, no, you just only remember the good stuff after a certain period of time. I don't think this is going to wind up being the most star-studded draft ever.

But I just think the draft is very popular. People pay attention to it for a longer period of time than they ever have before. Like it's if you follow football on any serious level, you know who the prospects are so far in advance. And so I just think that's a hard standard to live up to. And yeah, I'd say 2025 and 26 are a little on the leaner side. But I don't think it's a problem. I think we're only two years removed from a very, very good draft. So I think that's actually a great way to frame it too is that over the last maybe pushing up on a decade, like the NFL draft.

has just become something that everybody adjacent to the sport is into. Everybody is doing it as an analyst. Like it's more scrutinized. We talk about the class more. We talk about it for longer. We go deeper on these guys. In the way that like I was just kind of rolling back through a couple of these draft classes. Like I was trying to look for bad ones that had happened outside of a decade.

Obviously 2013 is the famous one. But I'm just going to pull up a decent player from that class. Starletollah. He went 14th overall. He was a really, he was like a pretty good NFL player. But like back then draft coverage was not as. as we just weren't as into it. So I don't feel like a player like that would have been like as scrutinized.

We weren't thinking about like what level of quality is that type of player. Whereas like whoever you're thinking is going 14th overall this year like everybody and their mother has thought about this guy. They've probably gone and watched this guy. They've heard 100 pods about this guy. Whereas like I just think draft coverage probably 15, 20 years ago was not as fleshed out like you said. And so now we're just more critical anytime we don't get a 2021 draft class.

I don't think draft coverage was this fleshed out. out 10 years ago. Yeah, probably not. Building the Beast, a regular podcast talking about the draft in October, I think is a relatively new phenomenon. And I love it for the record. I think it kicks ass. But I think it creates a level of anticipation that can be hard to live up to.

And that's why I don't even want to talk about 2027, because on paper, it looks absolutely loaded. But by November, I'm not going to be surprised if somebody somewhere is like, nobody's really living up to the hype. It's not going to be a good draft. I'm like, I think we're losing the plot a little bit. Hey, before we get to this last question, I'll just say right there, Monday, April 27th, we'll be exhale, drafts over, taking a breather. Dame Bruegler is going to have a top 100 for 2027 on that same day. Oh, get out of here. I'm already so excited. I'm already so excited. I'm taking notes for our summer episodes about like who we need to be on the lookout for.

One of one, that guy. Dan's probably got half a piece worth of notes for you already. Can't wait. I can't wait for that either. Last question, Mateo Espania. He wants to talk about centers, which we started this question. We started this mailbag with a question. Robert was probably happy to miss on the special teamers.

Let's end it with one. He's probably a little bit sad to miss talking about his beloved center position. Mateo wants to know, why has there been a shortage of centers recently? With only Jared Wilson last year, no consensus top guy in this year's draft, I'm wondering if this is a trend we're going to see continue or just bad luck. And then also, why did so many teams need a center this offseason? Dave, take us home here. I love that center is becoming a bit of a pet cause among our listenership.

Like, we've gotten a lot of feedback about centers this off season, and I think it's awesome. I think to answer the second question first, I think you're noticing teams needing centers because you've had several high-profile changes at once. I mean, two guys retired. Ryan Kelly was a little less surprising than Drew Dalman, but like two known commodities at center to like two guys that just signed nice contracts retired within a few weeks of each other. And then obviously the Ravens lose Tyler Linderbaum.

So I just think. And Ragnow the year before for the Lions. Yeah, Ragnow as well. Like that's just more turnover among the better players at the position. than I think you would typically see in a year. So I think that's part of it. I really love thinking about this, though, because it is interesting. Jared Wilson went 95th overall last year.

He was the first center off the board. And again, this year, if you look at like the pure center prospects, and it's a little dicey because like, for example, Keelan Rutledge, who so many people love out of Georgia Tech, he's a guard center guy. So I don't know where he's going to play in the NFL. But even still, best case scenario, he's like a surprise back into the first round guy. More realistically, maybe he's a top 50, top 60 pick. But then after that, among like true centers, you're probably talking about waiting into the like 70s, 80s, 90s for most of these guys to go.

I don't, I don't worry that it's a trend. So I went back and looked at this. A, the ceiling for drafting a center highly is just not very high. Like there have been 14 first round picks at center dating all the way back to the start of the century. Like over the last like 25 years, like going back to like 2000, 2002, you've had 14 centers drafted in the first round. And all of those guys were back into the first round. Most of them were in the 20s. Like I think 10 of the 14 were drafted in the 20s.

So it's just not a position with a very high ceiling anyway. but over the course of the last decade, 31 pure centers have been drafted in the top 100. And the average draft slot for all of those guys is around 61. So I do agree with the question in the sense that like we're not seeing that sweet spot day two center over the last couple of years. Like a perfect example is my guy, Zach Frazier, who was drafted 51st overall ready made starter plug and play guy where you draft him right away and you're like, I feel. awesome about this. It doesn't it doesn't feel like that guy has been there for the last two years. I don't know that I'm willing to call it a trend yet though. I think that's kind of where I'm at. Like center was already a to get one in the first round was kind of in every other year proposition

anyway. Exactly. And so it was usually more what you're talking about where like mid second round, high third round is where you would get a lot of your centers. And I think it's talking about it this year. like that makes this year not that much of an outlier. Like if we count Rutledge, he might be in that. But like Jones, the Iowa center, like he might be in that range. If somebody really needs it, Jake Slaughter out of Florida, like might be in that range. Like high third round if somebody really needs it. Like it does not feel like it's that far out of the range.

I think there's just a chance that we're getting like two kind of roughish years in a row. Because again, going back to 2024, Jackson Powers Johnson was drafted to be a center. Obviously he ended up being a guard. but like in theory he could have done it. And then Zach Frazier, like you mentioned, goes 51st overall to the Steelers. The year before that, Joe Tipman goes 43rd overall to the Jets and then the Giants draft John Michael Schmitz at 57th. Like that kind of just is the range for centers typically.

And that makes this year not really feel that far out of the range for it. I think we're just kind of because what we were talking about, the second part of the question, because so many teams needed centers with all the retirements, you know, a ragnow a couple years ago, the two guys this year. And then I think it was also that on the retirements on top of just a lot of the good ones were free agents this year. Like their deals just happened to be up at the same time. And I think that that is kind of just like a weird confluence of factors.

I got a sick sense of satisfaction out of how mathematical this felt when I looked into it. I already mentioned this. But again, okay, so 14 first rounders over the last 25 years, 10 were drafted 20 or later and then the four who were drafted in the teens Marquise Pouncy, Ryan Kelly, Cam Irving and Garrett Bradbury and all four of those guys were drafted 18th or 19th.

Like teams have a very specific parameter for where they're willing to do this position and it starts at like 18, 19 at the, in the very best scenario and goes through like the end of the first round if you're drafting like that type of guy. And then again, I think you see teams try to address this somewhere between 50 and 80 most of the time. Right. And again, we've talked about this before. It's not that centers don't matter. It's the it's the combination of one, it's a really mentally taxing position. So you just don't know how guys are going to handle that from college to the pros. And then also too, it's a little bit of like, hey, man, if you were a star athlete, you'd probably be paying tackle. You know, it's just a little bit of like the body types are just a little bit different. And they're not as, they're not as empowering and as imposing. as a, you know, a Penae Sewell or Tristan Worse is going to be.

It's just a different body type. One thing that I'm looking forward to seeing how it bears out during this draft is, and you see it if you look at Dane's rankings, like the centers are all pretty grouped together. I mean, you mentioned Logan Jones, you got Jake Slaughter, you got Sam Hect at a Kansas State, Connor Loo is obviously coming off of an injury, but a guy that people thought very highly of heading into last season. Trey Zune is moving from left tackle to center. I feel like all of these guys are grouped somewhere between like 85 and 110.

And so it seems like there's going to be a run on centers. And do teams try to start that earlier? Like does one of these guys get drafted in the 60s because a team feels that good about him and they're like, hey, we got to do this before the run starts? Or does the position stretch a little bit and teams think that they can wait a little because there are six guys similarly graded kind of stacked on top of each other. It sounds really, really nerdy to say, but I'm eagerly anticipating the center run and where it

starts. That actually is interesting. Like, is it going to be, you know, somebody takes one at 54 and the other teams in the NFL are like, oh, shit, we got to start the run. And they just all start rattling off at like 67, 72. Like, you know what I mean? Or is it just one team takes one and everyone else is like, we'll get ours in the round it's fine there's enough of them i don't my my favorite thing that i that i learned looking back at

this was in 2021 creed humphrey was the end of a center run uh because josh josh myers went a pick ahead of him and kansas city was like oh shit all right we got to get our guy you might not last much longer and he's like the best center in football i love the draft man all right i think that does it for this week's mailbag loved these questions y'all please keep them coming. We'll be answering them all off season long, although next week we won't have to because we will be in the middle of live draft coverage starting Thursday. Myself, Derek, Robert Mays will be back with us. We got the legendary Bruce Feldman and of course, Dane Bruegler, the star of the show. Cannot wait. We're going Thursday. We're going Friday. And I recently discovered we will be going live on Saturday as well, right, Beller? live on Saturday. That is not for the draft. We'll probably flip the mics on, roughly started the seventh round, and then do a live stream typical length episode from there. But Thursday night, 7.30 Eastern time, Friday night, 6.30 Eastern time. That is half an hour before the draft begins those two nights all the way through the final pick. And we'll even stay with you and wrap things up for about 45 minutes, an hour after those last picks are made those two days. So we are ready for a big week on the athletic football show. I'm not exaggerating. I'm not kidding.

It is my favorite weekend of the football calendar. I cannot wait to talk prospects and talk ball with all of y'all. And I can't wait for y'all to tune in. Until next time, that's all we got. We appreciate it. And we'll talk to you real soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

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