The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Are the Chiefs and Lions still who we think they are?

Episode Date: July 1, 2026

Nine questions answered, six more to go. On this edition of our Lingering Questions series, Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman dig into the following: The Lions are the betting favorite to win the NFC North...should they be? Can the Colts' second-half woes be explained away by Daniel Jones' injuries? Do the Chiefs really still deserve the benefit of the doubt?Host: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @RobertMaysFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mayes. The lingering question series rolls on today. Our fourth one, three questions that we wanted to sit with that we didn't feel like we got satisfactory answers from over the back half of last season, about the Colts, the Lions, and the Chiefs. Some news about the Lions, obviously, over the last 24 hours, Terry and Arnold released. We were already probably going to do this with the Lions, but we felt like we should

speed it up a little bit on the heels of the Terry and Arnold News. The Lions, even with the questions that they have in their secondary, are the betting favorites to win the NFC North. The way they played at the end of last season, let's go back and watch that. Should they be the favorites to win the NFC North? So that was the lingering question we had about the Lions. The Chiefs

are a team that we always have the benefit of the doubt with them, no matter what seems to be happening, should we? That's my lingering question about the Chiefs from 2025. So we went back, watched a little bit of their offense, some of the things they struggled with and whether we should continue to have the benefit of the doubt for the

Kansas City Chiefs. And we also talked about the Indianapolis Colts. Was the Daniel Jones injury the reason for the Colts falling off of the cliff last year, or did we see some of the issues start to crop up even before that happened? Chiefs, Colts, and Lions lingering questions with me, Dave, and Derek Classen. Let's get to it right now. Our lingering question series rolls on today. We have three more that we're digging into.

We'll chat a little bit about the Indianapolis Colts and whether Daniel, Daniel Jones's injury was solely responsible for their downturn offensively in the back half of last year. We're going to chat about the Kansas City Chiefs and whether the Chiefs still deserve the benefit of the doubt, as I think we continue to give it to them. Should we be doing that? But we're going to start this show by sneaking in a little bit of news. As we finished recording yesterday, Dave, like right as we finished recording, the news that the Lions had released Terry and Arnold came down. And we had been dancing around a lion's question in the lingering questions and now felt like the right time. After the Arnold news came out, I think I want to sit with the Detroit Lions and what they were at the end of last year and what that might tell us about what they might be moving forward.

And it's the, I mean, not to make light of the situation because there's obviously serious charges that Terry and Arnold is facing and to be released that quickly, like to be blunt about it. Whether that's right or wrong, like for an NFL team to so quickly wash their hands of a situation, I would love it if more NFL teams were willing to raise their or lower their tolerance for shit like that, but you don't see it that often. So it speaks volumes. And on a football level, again, not to minimize that, but on a football level, it's just the latest issue in what has been six months full of them for particularly the Detroit. secondary, but the lions in general dealing with a fair amount of attrition this year. And like I said, especially in their secondary. I'm sure you guys have seen the news around Terry and Arnold and what's been happening, but just quickly to recap, Taran Arnold's been in custody since Wednesday. He's facing eight felony charges. His bond has been set in a million dollars. And prosecutors requested

that he wear a GPS tracking device. It was rejected because he wouldn't be able to play football with that on. Well, it might not be a problem anymore. So a lot of things kind of weighing here. on the Lions with the Terry and Arnold situation. And Derek, the reason this kind of folds into the conversation I wanted to have about the Lions anyway, as Dave just alluded to, the Lions have faced tons of issues on their defense personnel-wise this off-season. When are guys going to play? When are we going to get the safeties back?

Now what's going to happen at corner? And if you look at the odds right now, the Lions are still favored to win the NFC North. They have been favored to win the NFC North throughout this entire offseason. So the lingering question I wanted to talk about today. is based on the way they played last year, especially in the back half of last year, is that enough for a Lions team facing all of these questions to justifiably be the favorite in the NFC North?

So what say you? I don't know if I would pick them to be my team, but I don't know if I actually feel confident enough in any of the other teams, because I think it's very easy to pick a team like the Chicago Bears, right? But I think one, I think the Lions offense and the Bears offense are, probably going to be closer to each other than we think.

Like, I think it feels like the sky is the limit for the Bears' offense, and it might be. But I've said before on previous shows, I think the Lions' offense is going to be exceptional again, and we can talk about that in a little bit. And then defensively, like, I don't think the Lions' defense is going to be very good. And we can talk about a lot of the reasons why. Again, the secondary, not having their safeties, it was already a thin cornerback group. Like, they lost Amik Roberts in this offseason, who I think actually played a really good ball for them.

And obviously now losing Arnold, we don't know when we're getting the safeties back. like I think they could be tough. I don't know if I feel great enough about any of the other NFC North teams to be like the Lions clearly should not be the favorite. So I think for that reason, I actually don't think it's that crazy because you can totally sell me on the world that even if the defense is not good and I don't think they will be, that the offense can score 28, 29 points again. And they can be the reason that they would win a lot of these shootouts. I see your gears turning over there. That's what I've been doing since I started prepping for this show. I love shows like this because if you get in there and leave your preconceived notions at the door,

you'll be surprised at the opinions you come up with. And I went into this question. And I've felt kind of iffy about the lions for a while. Like the situations with their safeties scare me deeply. The front hasn't been good enough. And, you know, leaning on a second round pick and Derek Moore to be some kind of difference maker for your pass rush. I don't love that. It just feels like the classic case of the elite team piece by piece losing things and changing things and saying, no, it's still okay.

We're still the lions. And that not being true, having said that, when I spent a day digging into it, I came out the other side kind of bullish on the question, bullish and saying, yeah, I think the situation bears them being the betting favorites. And that's, it's a pretty strict framing. I'm not trying to predict how the season's going to go. But in early July, having looked at it and we can get into my reasoning, I was just like, yeah, I think this makes sense. And I was a little bit surprised to land there. There's a lot of things happening all at once here.

The questions about the defense are very real and are even realer when now you're digging into your cornerback debt before the season even starts. And I think that if we're trying to paint the pessimistic picture, why there's cause for concern that should move them below a team like the Packers or the Bears as we're stacking up or handicapping the NFC North. The fact that at the beginning of the season we're already just trying to tread water defensively the same way they were in the back half of last year, that's scary. That's a really scary place to be.

Like I went back and I watched the Steelers game this morning because if you look at the guys who were on the field in the Steelers game, it's actually akin to what they're going to look like this year. Taryn Arnold wasn't playing in that game. The safeties are already hurt in that game. But Derek, when you go back and watch that, Amique Robertson is a part of that defense. And so you look at the back half of last year.

The Lions defense, despite all of the injuries, was not a disaster in the back half of last season. They were 13th overall on defensive success rate from week 10 onward. They were bottom 10 in EPA to play on defense in part because they gave up a ton of explosive plays. There's a chance that carries over when you're dealing with all these injuries

in the secondary and all of these. these injuries at safety. But I do think that we've already seen Kelvin Shepard show us that he can stop the bleeding on that side of the ball, even with some of the personnel concerns. So I think if you're trying to paint the pessimistic case, to me, the central question is probably how bad will the defense be? Like, what do we think the floor of this looks like? And is it the 20th best defense? Is it the 28th best defense? Because based on what I saw last year, and again, I want to root this conversation and that. What happened at the end of last season if it's a lingering question? I actually think, Derek, that Kelvin Shepard did plenty to inspire some confidence in his ability

to get by no matter who they're trotting out out there. I agree with that. I mean, we all remember the Ravens game, right? Like, the way that they handled them. Like, I, to me, they have a defensive coordinator who can raise the floor for them enough, which I think is like a huge, huge thing for them. I think Kelvin Shepard has done a great job. I would be really interested to see if he can piece together. Even like a mildly above average defense with this unit, he should be getting head coaching calls. Obviously, that's a lot given the roster. But I think they have the floor razors there. And I do think they have some ceiling razors. Obviously, Aidan Hutchinson purely as a pass rusher is one of the best in the league.

And then Jack Campbell is incredible. Like him getting first team all pro, like that was absolutely deserved. He's gotten way better in coverage than he was early in his career. The way that he handles blocks is fantastic. He's a really, really good run. I think those two guys give you the cornerstone pieces that you need to be able to build like a defensive system around. And then I think Alie McNeil, like when he's healthy is a really explosive player. Maybe Tyleek Williams takes a step. Like I don't think it's a great defense. I would think even in literally the best world possible, they're like the 14th best defense.

But I do kind of think that they can get there and hold on. I'm mostly worried about the secondary because even if Edge is thin, I actually do think having Aiden Hutchinson alone gives you enough of a pass rush, especially if the defensive tackles are going to give you some pocket push. The corner room I am, I am worried about. The corner room and the safety room, I'm a little bit scared. Yeah, I think the front, even if there are some questions here, and even if they are, again,

just kind of crossing their fingers and hoping that a guy like Derek Moore comes in and gives them what they need, I still think the front has a chance to be better than it was last year, simply because you have a Lee McNeil one year further removed from the injury, you have Tileak Williams heading into year two, you do at least have a dice roll that you picked in the second round of the draft. I think the front could probably be okay.

And if they can, again, just kind of hold on in the secondary, I do think there's a chance that they end up being like a league average defense. And if that happens, the question I was kind of going over this morning as I was thinking about this conversation and what the Lions could potentially achieve, if I asked you to bet like a year's salary on a team. I do not bet that's fair right now. Okay. Or like your house, right?

Real sticks. sure on one offense in the NFC north that finishes as a top five offense this year which offense would you pick the lions me too which and i think again that is such a crucial point of this question and if we want to talk about obviously with how close they've gotten the lions should have lofty expectations and and we should hold them to such but like if we're just the question is preseason favorite in the nfc north derrick already made the point i think all four teams in the NSC North have the potential to be good, but you're still dancing with some kind of devil if you're trying to pick

which one you feel the best about. With every single team. With every single team. Like the Packers defense fell off a cliff last year. We know why that happened, or at least partially why that happened, because Michael Parsons got hurt. But-

Michael Parsons is going to miss a chunk of the season. He's going to miss chunk of the season. You're switching out the defensive coordinator. You didn't really get better on that side of the ball this offseason with the additions that you made, not demonstrably better. Derek has talked ad nauseum about the quality of the offensive line, what that means for the overall ceiling of the Packers' offense.

There are tons of questions there. I think there is a justifiable amount of optimism about the Bears' offense. There are questions there again. There's going to be some regression. The offensive line probably won't be as healthy as it was last year. The offensive line personnel-wise isn't as good walking into the season as it was a year ago. I still have questions about how good the quarterback is going to end up being. And then you look at Minnesota and, yeah, in theory, they should be better at quarterback

and that should give them the potential to be a 10-11 win potential wildcar team. They could win the division, but we've literally never seen the quarterback play in that offense. Like, if we're talking about question marks, that remains a huge one, even if you can build a case for optimism there. And so while I do think this division is kind of a snake pit and it's going to be really competitive and all these teams are going to be at least decent, every single one of them has massive question marks at some really important spot. And that's why I actually feel really good about the lion's offense. Obviously, they have some changing pieces, right? Like they're changing offensive coordinator, but they're going from someone who, it's not like they lost like a, it's not like they're the bucks when they lost

Liam Cohen and you're having to replace it. It's like they lost an offensive coordinator that they took the reins from midseason and are giving it to somebody who. Quiet firing. Yes, a quiet firing. And giving it to someone who, I don't know if Drew Petting is like one of those ceiling raising offensive coordinators. I think he at least gets you to like solid and you're running a nice NFL offense. you pair that with like three of the five pieces of the offensive line are coming back.

And I've actually gotten more comfortable with the idea of, you know, I know when they drafted Blake Miller, I was like, why are you moving the best right tackle in the league? Like, just keep him where he is. But I've come more to like Dave's side and you guys decide of like, dude, he's penesuel. He'll probably be fine at left tackle. And I actually did like, yeah, I've gotten there. I don't even know why I was as worried as I would. And also like, I think too, I was doing a thing of like I liked Monroe Freelink slightly more.

than Blake Miller as a prospect. I still thought Blake Miller was a really good player. And so I've gotten there at what the offensive line can be. And then skill players, it's like they're, you know, I said it on the supporting cash show. I think it's as good as you could possibly get. And they have explosive players everywhere. Like you made the point, like, is there an offense I'm betting here to be top five? It almost has to be the Lions just because I've seen it before with most of these same pieces.

Last year, I mean, it felt like when we were talking about the Lions, when we were reckoning with the Lions during the season, it really did feel like the offense was kind of in its worst case scenario era over the last five years, like since the Lions became this sort of offense. Under those circumstances, the Lions finished seventh in offensive DVOA last year. Seventh.

They were a top ten offense by like any metric. They were much more inconsistent than they've been in years past. That was the frustrating part of this. One simple way to illustrate that, Jared Gough last year finished fifth in a year. EPA per dropback, which I want to have a conversation about Jared Goff at some point in this too. In fact that Jared Goff's offensive line was as bad

as ever going to be last year and he was fifth in EPA per dropback. Jared Goff is good at football. But fifth and he pay per drop back for golf last year. So you saw how explosive this team was, the ceiling of the offense. He was 12th in success rate. And you felt that. It was just a little bit more volatile last season,

I think in large part, because of the questions at play caller, but also just the quality of the offensive line. And Derek, when we were doing the supporting cast, I think there was part of me that was a little bit hesitant about, well, they added guys on the offense line so it's automatically going to be better. And it's like, well, one of the guys is a rookie right tackle and, you know, Kate Mason somebody that was never really a starter before last year.

There's a path to this being better, but we're really sure it's going to be better. And then you actually go look at what happened on the offensive line last year. Christian Mahogany missed six games. And he was on the injury report for the last three. So he was hurt for like half the season. Taylor Decker was literally on the injury report, 17 of the 18. weeks last year with his shoulder. 17 of the 18 weeks.

And then you just look at, you know, I can't remember the guy's name. I think he's in with the Chargers now, but 74, the backup left guard who was playing for Mahogany and then Tristan Colon had to play more than you wanted him to. By you get the time you get to Thanksgiving, you got Ross Dwellie trying to block Roshan Gary and you saw the issues that happened with the run game. Like even if they didn't add anybody, just getting the tight ends back and having last year's offensive line healthier, this would have been so much better than it was for a vast majority of last season when again, they were still a top 10 offense by virtually every

single metric. And so I just think the path to them being like a top three to five offense again is so obvious and clear, even if it doesn't happen, that I get why you would land on them being just the safest, most reliable choice to win the division still, even with all the questions on defense. Right. Because it just doesn't feel like they need that many things for them to go right to get back to where they are. Like, again, outside of just like preposterous injury luck, which, you know, has been more of an issue for their defense than their offense. But again, if the offensive line is 10% healthier and Cade Mays is even a little bit of

an upgrade, they go back to a team that is like top five in Russian success rate. Jared Goff is always always in comfy down in distances. And then he has four incredible skill players to throw the ball to. Like it's so easy to see the world where they just start printing explosives again. The one thing that I would bring up that gave me pause when I was looking at the Lions offense. And I love Jemir Gibbs. I know his usage trended up and Montgomery's trended down. I get all that.

He's one of the most dynamic running backs in the league. How do you feel about Isaiah Pacheco stepping into that spot? And I mean, God forbid, hopefully Jemir Gibbs is as healthy as possible. But even as his usage trended up, this was still a team that used David Montgomery. plenty over the years is that I think most people would see that as like a pretty even swap with what we've seen out of Isaiah Pacheco the last year and a half two years. I don't know if that's, I don't think that's true. And I hope that doesn't bite them that their depth at running back is, I mean, they used to have

the best tandem in the league. I don't think that's the case at all anymore. I think that's probably right. I think you are a little bit less consistent. You're a little bit less reliable with Pacheco than you were with David Montgomery. But beyond getting the pickback, like getting juice scrugs and. that trade. Like, you look at...

I do love their depth on the offensive line. They saw what happened last year and they were like, no, what about doing this again? And I actually appreciate that as like a mindset this off season. And then I'm with Derek completely about the skill position players. Like, I joke that like Jared Gawf being 50 paper dropback last year in a year where it was supposed to be a really bad situation is really impressive for Jared Gough. And while I do think that's true and even some of the shortcomings with Jared Gough, like you

go look at Jared Gough's numbers under pressure. over the last two years. They're not bad. They're not great, but they're not bad. Like the things that we used to say or think about Jared Gough, and there are certain moments in games like that Vikings game where there's hammering the middle of the line over and over again, you see him get moved off his spot.

He does struggle. But I don't think it's one of those things where you throw water out of many melts anymore the way that it used to be four or five years ago. I think that he's able to kind of overcome a lot of that stuff. And you combine that with the quality of the skill position talent. And somebody brought this up when we were talking about the line, and the supporting cash show. And I think it's a great point.

Even if the play caller is being swapped out, they still have a head coach with an offensive background that I think does inform a lot of the ways this offense is going to feel. And I think was a big reason that the offense was able to stay relatively good last year, even with a lot of the injuries. And so I just think there's so many things stacking up for us to believe that this could once again be one of the best offenses in the league, even if we're staring at the secondary and it's making us wake up in a cold sweat.

I mean, the best case scenario for Detroit is the defense proves a bunch of people wrong and they really are this fantastic team. But even a more realistic scenario is just that they're one of the most entertaining teams week in and week out because they're going to score 34 and give up 31. And we'll find out which ones they win and which ones they lose. I'm way down to watch that. Are they this year's version of like what the Cowboys and the Bengals have been? It could be like I could see that being possible. I mean, I do think, you know, between Campbell and Hutchinson and we'll see about some of the. of the young guys like, I think this defense has more talent than like specifically.

And I also have more. Some of those other teams. I also have more faith in the people in charge. Like the fact that they didn't drive off a cliff last year, even with all the injuries, they were never as bad at any point last year as the Bengals or Cowboys were for a vast majority of the season. And I think that says a lot about what Kelvin Shepard can potentially do if he has the requisite amount of talent.

The last thing I want to say about this, and again, this gets back to the, there's a lot of things happening at once. I think it's okay to look at what the lions are right now and say they could win the NFC North, given some of the questions about all the other teams. I do think it's worth pointing out that this roster is not what it was a couple years ago. And even if they can win the division and might be the justifiable favorite to win the division, stacking up this team with the best teams in the league, you see where the drafting issues over the last couple years have really started to eat away at the depth. overall quality of this roster. I just want to go over the last couple

drafts for the Lions and just what the outcomes of that are. So looking at the 2024 draft, they drafted Terry Arnold in the first round. He's no longer on the team. They drafted Ennis Raikstra on the second round. He has not played for them at all and doesn't even seem to be in their plans this year as they're getting, I actually don't know that for a fact.

Five, four, three. Drafted Ennis Rae Strais Straw in the second round. If he's not going to play this year, he's never going to play. Like, this is the time when they really would need him and he has not been in their plan so far. They drafted Giovanni Manu in the fourth round. They traded away a future third round pick to go up and get him. They traded away a third round pick in that draft to move up for Terry and Arnold. The Cowboys used that to draft Cooper Beebe, by the way. They traded a third round pick in that draft to go get Carlton Davis the year before. They traded a 2025 fourth in that draft to draft

Sion Vacchi in the fourth round. And then we go to the 2025 draft. They traded a fourth to move about three picks in the second round to draft Tate Routledge, and they drafted, they traded two future third round picks for Isaac Tesla. So in the last three drafts, they've made six or seven picks per draft and only seven picks in the top 100. And that 2024 draft right now looks like a complete wash. And you see that. Like when you look at the quality of the roster, you are starting to feel the fact that they have not been able to replenish this thing with guys in those third, fourth rounds in part because they haven't made the right amount of picks. But that Derek was always going to be a necessary part of the equation here as everyone else

that kind of formed the foundation of this team was getting really expensive. You were going to need to start hitting on cheaper guys and that has not happened over the last couple of years. Right. I mean, the best parts of this team that were there in 20203 and 2024, those parts are still true in 2026. The difference is that all of the middling and worst parts of the roster have taken either a step or two back because, again, they,

have not been able to draft the depth. And it's not even just the missing on picks, right? Like even very good organizations and teams are just going to have runs where they just have a couple of years where you just miss. It's all those picks that you're talking about that they traded away to move up in the third round, move up in the fourth round, you know, two picks to get Isaac Tesla. All of those picks combined are probably worth like two first round picks. Like the combined value of all the stuff that they're moving. So they've lost like that value on top of not being able to hit on hardly any of these players at all. And maybe some of them, like, Tisla, I do think has a chance to be better,

but, like, did not give you a whole lot outside of, like, five outrageous plays as a rookie. And so I do think that they are missing, like, a, you use this word a lot, a connective tissue to their roster in a way that I do think you need to be a championship team. They can win the division with, like, a kind of fortunate 10-11 win season. This is not a team that is going to win 14, 15 games the way that they used to be able to. The quality of Tislau's plays last year gives me, I would say, irrational, confidence like that doesn't bother me because i just i think he could be really good he could be good but it might not justify it with so many of these guys you need them to be good yeah because of what you paid to get them

and that just hasn't been happening at the same rate it was a couple years ago which is why i think the framing is so important i don't view the lions as the slam dunk super bowl favorite that i have for the last two or so years but i do think it makes sense that betting markets see them as the favorites in the NFC North. And another thing I want to throw in, typically I hate doing shit like this, especially it's not even, training camp's not even open yet.

But if we're talking about predicting the division champion, look at the scheduling draws for these teams. They're playing a last place schedule. That's three games in essence, right? Like there's three opponents that change because of where you finish. As a result of finishing fourth, the lions get to play the Giants, Cardinals, and Titans. and then look at, look at what the bears and the Packers draw.

The Bears have to play the Eagles, Jaguars, and Seahawks. The Packers have to play the Cowboys, Texans, and Rams. So like if you're trying to make a bet about who's going to win the division, obviously things are going to change and some of that shit's not going to play out the way we think. But if I'm trying to come up with a prediction, two months before the season even starts, stuff like that matters to me. And so in totality, I'm just like, yeah, I didn't expect to like the picture with the Lions as much as I do, but in a very flawed division, it makes sense.

I think we can overstate schedule stuff in the offseason before we actually know how good teams are and what the season's going to feel like. I would still rather play the Titans than the Seahawks. Yes. But yeah, yes. Even if the Seahawks are worse than we think and the Titans are better. I'd rather play the Cardinals than the Rams or the Texans, yes. So I think we're all kind of an agreement about what the answer to that lingering question

feels like, even in what was a down year where they finished last in the division, even though they were 9 and 8 and tied for third place in the division, we still think that the performance we saw from the Lions last year is enough to justify them being the favorite right now to win the NFC North. And I don't know, I'm kind of on where you are. I don't know if I thought I was going to land there. I did not expect to be there. It's kind of why I wanted to ask the question,

but I do think that's where we ended up. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back and chat about another team that fell off in the back half of last season. So when we were originally building the lingering questions list, this is one that it's the way we're the truest one we're going to do to the spirit of the exercise. What happened really to the Indianapolis Colts in the back half of last year before Daniel Jones got hurt? So when we're looking at the just complete falling off of a cliff from the Colts last year,

how much of this was a product of Daniel Jones getting hurt and how much of this was already starting to take shape before he was lost for this season. So, Dave, your lingering question, how much of the Colts downturn last year was a product of Daniel Jones's injury and how much was a part of stuff that was already starting to bubble up? I think it's fair to point out that I don't think the Colts drop would have been as precipitous if Daniel Jones got hurt. Because remember, they didn't win another game after that Germany,

game against Atlanta. Like they were 8 and 2 and they did not win again. Daniel Jones gets hurt initially. They lose an overtime to the Chiefs. And then he tears his Achilles against the Jaguars and all hell breaks loose and Philip Rivers plays. Like I don't think the Colts would have gone from 8 and 2 to 8 and 9 if Daniel Jones hadn't gotten hurt.

I sure hope not. Do I think they would have remained one of the hottest teams in the NFL and potentially the number one season in the AFC playoffs? I don't. And if you go back and look at this and you look at what the Colts were doing leading up to the biweek and leading up to the injury, you can already start to see the decline. I mean, you can just see it watching Colts games.

I remember the Steelers game was just a slap in the face. After how hot their season started, the way that the Steelers managed to pressure Daniel Jones and get takeaways, made him look incredibly uncomfortable in the pocket. even the Falcons game, which they wound up winning, I think they sacked him seven times in that game. He fumbled three times. He fumbled three times.

They actually moved the ball really well for a vast majority of that game. I honestly think that's... It's one of my favorite random games from last season, by the way. Incredibly entertaining, weird as hell game that was on 8.30 in the morning. I kind of think that game in a lot of ways is indicative of the conversation that we're having, where the offense down to down was actually still very very. very good. And like they had like a 52% success rate in that game, but on multiple different levels, it was maddening. Like the putting the ball on the ground, the in a bit, I think they had

two turnovers on downs and opposing territory, uh, during that game. Like that, that to me really does speak to the conversation at hand here. Where I land on this is that they were not as good as they were over the first eight weeks of the season, but they were still a pretty good offense that was shooting itself in the foot a little bit too often. The question I think that we have to answer is, when Daniel Jones is your quarterback, even at his best, are you just guaranteed to be shooting yourself in the foot semi-oft? You know, maybe not as much as those two games,

because it was, I mean, like, three picks and like six fumbles over the course of those couple of games, which, like, that's probably extreme even for a player like Daniel Jones. But I do think the first eight weeks of the season, he was running hot in a way that he's never going to run hot again. Like it just, if you compare it to any of his career numbers, it's crazy. So the first eight weeks of the season, he had a 9.8 pressure to sack rate, which is not only the fourth best rate since 2019 when he came in the league,

but is about half of his career rate at 19.8. So he was playing in a completely different realm in that way. His EPA per dropback while getting hit, which like obviously every quarterback is going to be awful. So it was negative 0.38 EPA per play, which is bad, obviously, in a vacuum, but was tied with Patrick Mahomes this year as the top five rate since 2019. And he had a career rate of negative. 0.91 EPA per dropback one hit. Like he was just getting away with things in a way that he's never really gotten away from them before. And I think some of it is real.

I actually do think he got pretty good at like he could stare down the barrel of the gun and make some tough throws. and I do think he got good at that. And I do think his pocket movement, actually, in Indianapolis, was better than I'd ever seen it in New York. Like, there were some moments where it was like, man, he did really feel that guard pressure and take a couple of steps out and go make a throw outside of the pocket.

I still think that he was getting away with that at a rate that is outside of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. I just don't think that Daniel Jones has shown the capacity to consistently play at that level and run that hot like that. That's the thing for me is if you pull up the splits, And it's admittedly not as big of a sample size as you would prefer, especially since we know he was dealing with an injury during the Chief's loss. But weeks 9 to 12, pick any metric you want,

like EPA for dropback, adjusted EPA per play success rate, completion percentage over expectation. He's like middle of the pack at all of it. Like he's definitely not bad. It's just it's a lot of normal numbers. And then compare that to weeks one through eight. And it's best in the league at freaking everything. or like at least top three.

I mean, it's just a stark contrast that even though he wasn't always playing poorly in that final month before he went out for the year, it just, I don't think it's realistic to think that he can consistently play at the level he was at over the first two months of last season, just based on what we know about him as a player. It would be impossible.

Like, they were historically consistent and efficient offense during that stretch. I think the question's going to be, where do they land? And a couple of the other ones that I wanted to point out, Derek handed a couple of them. So in weeks 9 through 13, after leading the league in total EPA when pressured over the first eight weeks, he was 30th in weeks 9 through 13, 9 through 13 in EPA per dropback when pressured.

I mean, the Steelers game is doing a lot of lifting there because he turned the ball over so often, but he was still 20th in success rate compared to being top 10 in the first eight weeks of the season. As an offense overall, there are a lot of areas where they were running really hot. And then as we got into that month-long stretch, even before he got hurt, it just wasn't quite as good. Two things that really jumped out to me. So they were 26th and third down conversion rate

in the NFL weeks 9 through 13. They were fourth in weeks one through eight, went from 45% to about 32.5%. They were still ninth in early down success rate in weeks 9 through 13. If you look at what they were doing in a couple stretches of the field, and this one really jumped out to me

when I was going back and rewatching these guys. games. In weeks 9 through 13, so that bad stretch before he gets hurt, they still had a 52.5% success rate from their goal line to the opponent's 40 yard line. From the opponent's 40 yard line and in, it was 37 and a half percent. So you go from top three to 26th when you cross the opponent's 40. In the red zone, they scored on 100% of their red zone drives in weeks one through eight. It was about league average in weeks 9 through 13. So what do you? do with all this, right? If you fall back to earth to the middle of the pack in this month-long

stretch and you were historically good in the first eight weeks of the season, do we land in the middle of those two things? Is the first eight weeks a mirage and that four weeks is more realistic? Because I do think, Derek, there are a lot of underlying numbers that point to the fact that even if he's not going to run that hot as an offense, they were still very efficient and just weren't quite as lucky in areas that are volatile during that four-week stretch and probably could be a little bit luckier in those spots if he had continued to stay healthy. So I don't really know what to do with all of this. Like I still think I leave this with some overall optimism for what they'd be if he were healthy. And I think that's a conversation for another day as we kind

of look forward to the season. Right. I think we can have the health conversation whenever that gets closer and we have a little bit of a better picture. I do think one thing that we can actually talk about with how replicable what they did last year was, even when they were running really hot compared to what they're going to be this year. The wide receiver core, I think, has a lot more questions than it did going into last year. Like, obviously, you still have Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, but Downs is going to have to play a more outsized role than he did last year. And he played pretty well last year, but it was a very specific slot primary role.

It was a lot of spot routes. It was a lot of whip routes. It was a lot of them scheming him open against man coverage. which I do think Shane Sikin actually really kicks ass at, by the way. Like, go watch the Denver game. He's just be incredible at that. Go watch the Denver game and watch how many times they're just getting like wide open guys against man coverage. I think he did a really good job of that.

I think you can make an argument that maybe, I think how Shanahan is in this conversation, I think Sikin is in on a short list of guys that has the best handle on what his personnel does well and how to situationally put those guys in the best possible spots. Like, if you look at the ways that they use Tyler Warren, they use Josh Downs, they use Alec Pierce, they use Michael Pitman. It's not just that those guys collectively have a lot of talent. It's that he knows exactly how to circle one guy on the defense and exploit them with that guy's specific skill set as a receiver.

It's actually kind of remarkable. So I agree with that, but that actually leads me to my next point. Can you do that as well without Michael Pittman? Michael Pittman is the most like nobody gives a shit about how good he was, like type of backbone player? because while we talk about like how well they used Alec Pearson, how well they used Tyler Warren and Josh Downs, that is all kind of made possible by how well Michael Pittman

just does a lot of things well for them. And he was the guy they could funnel targets to. He was the guy who could run a lot of those one to 15, like isolated routes like, hey, I just need to pin this ball on the guy. And I don't have to scheme him open. He's just going to be able to win for me, whereas Pierce was a little bit more of a role player.

Downs was a little bit more of a role player. And so I do think like taking, like taking him out, that hurts. I also think the depth at wide receiver is different now. Like last year, they went into the into the year with Josh Downs and, um, A.D. Mitchell being their three and four, which, you know, A.D. Mitchell, that's a whole thing. But he had some flashes for them. You wait until we get the A.D. Mitchell break out this year and you're waiting for that.

I, by the way, I forgot how impressive the Rams, like a drop touchdown thing he does. Like the play he makes to get there is actually. crazy right up until the end. Yes, you forget how good it is because of obviously how he botches it. I would say it's like 60-40, my still having a candlelit for A.D. Mitchell, like, bit versus reality. I think it's like 60% bit,

but I think it's still 40% reality. I think it's good podcasting to just lean into the bit. Like, be the A.D. Mitchell guy. I still kind of believe. And he's going to get chances this year. Like, he's going to get out of 30s to actually play this year. He's not getting blocked. He's not getting, you know,

Yeah, blocked opportunities over there. But again, I do think Josh Downs and A.D. Mitchell being your three and four, compared to going into this year, their three and four are Nick Westbrook Aquene and, I don't know, Dionne Burks, a seventh round pick, Ashton Doolin, who's been like their fifth receiver for a long time. I do think the depth that they're picking at is a lot different than it was last year. Thank you for standing up for Michael Pittman Jr. Derek. I think he's such an underrated player. and I understand why, but just my, my like snapshot memories of the Colts last year,

other than Jonathan Taylor just being an absurd player, are Michael Pittman making like the routine catches that you have to make to like keep an offense on track. Like he, I think he was such a big part of what made it all tick. And it's not to say, Alex Pierce can't be better in a bigger role or that Josh Downs can't step up. Anybody else, but it just worked so well.

And I'm definitely, I'm not willing to just assume it's going to work in harmony quite as well as it did with all of those pieces. And not to harp on what's done because what's the point, but it's so wild that they were so bought in on what they saw that they did what they did and traded for Soss Gardner. And I mean, it's who could they have drafted to help offset the losses on offense if they had those picks? Or if you didn't have Soss's contract on the books, could you afford Pittman and Pierce together? Like, is that something you could consider? And then you draft defense because your offense is set for the foreseeable future. There's plenty of ways they could have done this.

And that's not to say sauce gardener is not a good player, but it's just, it was a wild amount of confidence based on not a huge sample size of success. Even if you're trying to spin this optimistically and you're looking at the, Let's just say it hypothetically. The group of receivers is about as good as it was last year, even without Michael Pittman. And I think that's a question, like Derek just said. But let's just assume that's true. I still feel like when you go back and look at the tape of those four weeks and the numbers from those four weeks,

this offense is probably realistically more like the eighth to tenth best offense in the league when things are going right versus the best offense in the league like they were over the first eight weeks of the season. And if that's the case, if you're like the ninth best offense, in the league. The Soss Gardner trade becomes much more difficult to justify. And then you look at the defense and they still have a ton of questions. Like they didn't get Trey Hendrickson and free agency the way that they wanted. They still don't have enough oomph in the front seven to really be a great defense. So if you got a league average defense and the ninth best offense in the league, what are you? And I think that's kind of where I land at the end of this is that you did see

them kind of drifting into that sort of range offensively during that four-week stretch even before he got hurt and it once again leaves this team in a frustrating no man's land. I want to ask the both of you, over that nine to 13 week stretch, what of their downturn felt the most real to you? Like not just like, you know, Daniel Jones being injured, but like what part of it felt the most like,

ah, yeah, that really is like the true colors of the offense kind of showing their head. That's really the only one I would land on because I think, again, down to down, they were pretty good and just a little bit unlucky. Like, the most frustrating thing to me was this, I mean, you look, go back and watch the Chiefs game, right? Chiefs game is a perfect example. It's a hold on Braden Smith. It's a false start on fourth and one.

Like, I do think that a lot of their issues beyond some of the turnovers and some of the volatility stuff under pressure was just like situational mistakes and like just being a little bit more frustrating than I. I wanted them to be. So I think for the most part, my answer lands with the quarterback just being not as good in those situations as he was. The run game is one area you can kind of point to. Like, that's another area where over the first eight weeks, Jonathan Taylor average 0.35 EPA per carry on under center runs. That's like MVP quarterback.

That's just never going to happen. And so I think that's another area where it fell back to Earth a little bit. But I don't think there's anything, any one specific thing. I think everything was just like 80% of, as good as it was over the first eight weeks and the quarterback play was really the biggest difference. Yeah, something similar for me. Like I said earlier, just the numbers were so good. The performance was so good that it was just striking when it fell back down to earth.

I mean, even over that month long stretch before he went out, he was 31st in the league in EPA per dropback against the Blitz. He was top five before that. And like that when you don't have that anymore, it just becomes a striking difference. Like when your quarterback is not consistently solving those puzzles that the other team is throwing at you. And especially after you kind of like eight games is enough to kind of get used to it. And then when it goes away, it's it's pretty stark to see in real time. If he is healthy this year and he can play close to the level we saw even over that four week stretch,

again, I'm open to the idea that this can be like this. seventh best offense in the league. I do think that that's possible based on what we saw last year. But I think it's a noticeable step down from what it was over the first eight weeks, even when he was still healthy during that final month before he was out for the year. I think that's where I'm at. I think there's a world where I can see that it pieces together and they're a nice offense again. I think if I were a betting man, I would not bet on them to finish top 10 in DVOA or EPA per player or whatever the metric is going to be. Achilles is just so high on the list of injuries that scare me.

And I hope he plays like nothing ever happened, but it's hard for me to just assume that right now. Speaking of injured quarterbacks, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back and chat about Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Last lingering question for today is a pretty simple one. Do the Kansas City Chiefs still deserve the benefit of the doubt?

Let me, can I? That's it. I'm asking you right now, do the Kansas City Chiefs still deserve the benefit of the doubt? I will accept this as a not thinly veiled shot at me. That's okay. That's okay. You can take it that way if you wanted to. That is okay.

I would just point out before I, before I answer the question, it's okay that we rode the SS chiefs all the way into the waves last year. Like it's, it's okay. It won't be again. From 2018 to 2024, they won 80% of their games and reached five. Super Bowls and they played in every AFC title game along the way. It's okay that

we waited until it was over to jump off. I won't apologize for that. Having said that, now that it's happened and like they didn't just, you know, it's not just like they were a wild card and they gave up the division, but they were still a good team. They're a bad team. And now Patrick Mahomes is

dealing with an injury. They're revamping the defense and we can get into what the offense is. I mean, there are some elements of the offense that I'm excited about, but for the most part, it doesn't feel like enough, considering how little I've enjoyed watching the Chiefs on offense over the last couple years, that I think, I think the answer is, no, we don't have to give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt. And that's without even including the fact, superhuman though he is. And like,

the reports coming out about Mahomes' recovery are insane to me. It seems like he's going to be ready to go by training camp. I, God bless him. That's amazing. He's, he's maybe not human. But like, I still have to factor that in and say, even if, even if you're the goat or the best active quarterback, I still have to account for that and say, all right, well, let's, let's wait and see. And so my short answer is, is no, I don't think we have to give them a benefit of doubt this year. Derek?

So I think two things can be true. I think we do not necessarily have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I already talked on the supporting cast show that like with Andy Reid specifically, I'm like, can still be a good coach, but I'm not putting him up there with like Kyle Shannon and all that stuff again. I do think the defensive roster is better. And I think they have a chance to be pretty good because I still have a lot of faith in Steve Spagnolo. And the quarterback is still Patrick Mahomes. And again, he's coming off injury.

But if he's 90% of what Patrick Mahomes is, that is still a top five quarterback in the NFL. and I'm willing to give those things the benefit of the doubt. So I think benefit of the doubt if we're going to do like, I trust this team no matter what to win 12 and 13 games and be the first or second seed, that's probably a little bit of a stretch. Do I have the benefit of the doubt that they will definitely, like, that they will not definitely be better,

but will be, have a better showing than they did last year. Yes, I will give them the benefit of the doubt for that. Actually, that's so fair, Derek. and good on you for framing it that way. What does that mean? Like benefit of the doubt that you're still the chiefs and we can just pencil you into the AFC title game? No.

And that's where I draw the line. But I will give the chiefs the benefit of the doubt that they'll be a good team this year and then they will matter in the AFC West race. Like I will give them. The bar is higher. The bar we're talking about here is higher than the one that's laid out. initially said no.

I don't think we can give the chiefs the, let's just assume the AFC title game will be at Arrowhead benefit of the doubt. I do still think they'll be a good team. I don't even really, I'm not even really thinking that much about the defense because I'm essentially with Derek about the defense. The defensive personnel was going to be better.

I think the defense will at least be pretty good this year. It'll be an above average group. I'm not saying you're wrong, but it is a wild, it's wild to hear that it'll definitively be better when your all pro corner was traded. away and you let the other one walk as well. And I know, like, I know they drafted a lot of guys. I know they, they've spent money on the defense, but to just say it's definitely better

losing your cornerbacks is interesting to me. I just think that the firepower they now have and like the pop that they now have with the guys that they drafted. I'm up, let's just say this. I'm optimistic about it. Okay. That's why I'm optimistic about the general trajectory of the defense and the potential step forward that they can take. I focused most of my attention and energy on the offense here. And I really just don't know what to make of it. Because when I went back and I watched, I watched a couple games from just the middle of last season and when Mahomes was still healthy. And when you go back and you watch, it's not as ugly as you remember it being. Like, there are still elements of the offense that are really good. And to me, that always jumps out when you're just watching

them play against man coverage or when you're watching them play against zone coverage. When teams play zone coverage against the chiefs, they still feel really dangerous. And beyond what the quarterback can do, I think what the structure of the offense can do when exploiting and attacking space, I think they're really good at that. I think they're really good at, you know, it's a motion here, it's a motion there. Like, we know exactly how to stretch you in those zone coverages and exactly how to attack you in those zone coverages. When you look at it, they were fifth and explosive pass rate versus zone coverage last year. So all of our conversations about the chiefs and a lack of explosiveness, all of that,

they were fifth and explosive pass rate. And the problem is when you get into some of these other aspects that I just don't know if they're going to be any better. Like when you look at the numbers against man last year and even certain other things, like my favorite stuff the chiefs did last year, when you watch them like throwing the ball to the intermediate area of the field, especially against zone coverage, they were very explosive and really dynamic throwing the ball to the intermediate area of the field last year. They just don't do it very much.

And even when you look at this receiving group, who is that guy? Who is that guy that you want to be throwing the ball to in the intermediate area of the field? Like on a deep crosser, is Xavier worthy that guy? Because that's what I want to see. Like I wish this team, like we can talk about the under center stuff and the play action, whether they should be doing more of it. I don't know how much faith I have in them really revamping all that stuff. But even if they wanted to be like more of a gun-based offense and live that way,

I still think when you go back and you watch teams like the Lions and some of the stuff that they do, throwing the ball to the intermediate area of the field, even from the gun, like all of those dagger variations out of the gun that the Lions run, I would like to see the Chiefs do more of that stuff because I actually think that's where Mahomes is best. I think when you watch him throw the ball in the intermediate area, the field. That's where he's best. But let's just say they're running dagger out of the gun, Derek. Who's running the dig? Like, I guess Tyquan Thornton, which I don't feel great about. Are you going to ask Jalen Royals to do it? Like, I don't feel very good about that either. And the problem, and I said this on

the supporting cast show, it used to be Travis Kelsey, not running the dig, but like being your intermediate middle player, like all those deep sit routes that he would run, the crossers, like him just finding space, all their creativity. That has been gone. for two years. And I think you felt like the impact of him only getting older and older. And his average depth of target only getting shorter and shorter because that's really all that he's capable of at this stage in his career. It's really interesting to look at the Chiefs off season.

And I can't come to a conclusion. I'm with you. I'm mainly focused on the offense. Like I will absolutely give Spags the benefit of the doubt that with what they've invested on that side of the ball and his pedigree. I'm really not. I'm not sweating the defense too much, but offensively. And I came to a similar conclusion as you.

Like if I even just said, I haven't had a lot of fun watching the Chiefs the last couple years, they're like perfectly decent at almost everything. Like the advanced numbers are all very good. They're all fine. Yeah. They're all perfectly good. Like 12th to 15th or better in most categories. But having said that, it just, I come to the conclusion.

they just feel like if they can bring an explosive element back to their run game, that everything will be fine. And I don't know. I don't know if I believe that. And it's striking to think that drafting a receiver on day three is the only addition they made to their past catchers. And they brought back Tyquan Thornton, but he was obviously there last year.

I just, I have a hard time getting excited about it. And maybe some of that is because Rishi Rice is just a chore to follow at this point. in his NFL career. Do you know the other sneaky part of this? He didn't play well last year. Yeah. And the offense wasn't that good when he played. I was looking at some of the numbers.

And so the Chiefs overall last year were 21st an explosive pass rate per true media over the course of the entire season. And you combine that with a complete inability to be explosive on the ground. You get the 26th most explosive offense in the league period. When Rice was on the field, that rate, the explosive pass rate,

would have been 31st in the league. Wow. So it was not because he wasn't playing. And so I just don't know what the pathways are with this receiving core to consistently be explosive in the ways that I think the quarterback allows you to be consistently explosive. Like they struggle to push the ball down the field because that's not what he does well. He has not been a good deep passer recently, just period. The accuracy has not been good.

He has not been a very good deep passer recently. And this team throws the ball behind the line of scrimmage more than any team in the league. Who on your team is going to be turning those plays? into explosives. Like I guess Rishi Rice showed an ability to do that two years ago, but he's not really inherently that explosive of a player. So if you're going to be a team that dinks and dunks all the time and you struggle to throw the ball down field and you know,

you have no real receiving options that make you dynamic in the intermediate area, where are we solving problems? We're not, which I honestly, I think does speak to how incredible Patrick Mahomes is, the fact that they've been able to piece together offense while all of those things are true, I think I am more bullish on explosive run game fixing some of their problems, not fixing them to the degree

that they will be like the fourth best offense in the league. But this was an offensive line and run game that was efficient. Like their success rate was like a little bit above average. Like they could move people and get their four yards. The problem is Isaiah Pacheco. One was never that explosive of a player, but like especially last year like Dave was talking about

when we were talking about the Lions, just had no giddy. up once he got to the open field. Kenneth Walker, if he gives you one more of those a game, I think just being able to flip the field a little bit and immediately flip and get into gear of like, okay, we go from like R40 directly into like enemy shot play territory. I do think like putting defenses on the heels that way

with a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes does kind of go a long way for me. That's the conclusion I came to as well, where it sounds like a little thing and maybe it would be for other teams, but if you can make life that much easier on Patrick Mahomes, it could make all the difference in the world. I mean, they were bottom 10 in rushes of 10 plus yards last year. And then the one that I thought was really funny,

they had three rushes of 20 plus yards last year. Mahomes had one and Worthy had another. They had one run of 20 plus yards by a running back last year. I don't think those running backs are physically capable of running 20 yards one time. But Kenneth Walker can. And even I think Imari DiMarcato's, legacy at this point in his NFL career is dropping that ball in the Arizona Tennessee

game last year, but he actually had a 20 and a half percent explosive run rate last year, which it's a small sample size, but when you're the Kansas City Chiefs, you'll take whatever you can get, and then obviously you add a rookie to the mix. If you can up those numbers and make teams respect

that you have a running back that can hurt them, then maybe this receiver core is good enough. And I don't think I would buy that if Patrick Mahomes wasn't the quarterback, but he is. I think that being more explosive on the ground is going to go a long way. And I think that will do some lifting. I totally agree with that.

And I'm curious what the structure of the run game will look like. That's one of my biggest questions. Do they get under center more than they did over the last couple years? Is that one of the solutions that we see from them? They were fourth in the NFL last year at EPA per rush on undercenter running back runs. The only teams ahead of them were the Colts, the Bears, and the Rams. And I wonder, like, Eric B. Enemy being on that Bears staff last year, do we see some of those ideas sprinkled into what the chiefs are.

Because I think them getting under center a little bit more, committing to running the ball under center a little bit more, and then trying to find some intermediate completions and explosives off of play action is a way that you can start accessing that area of the field a little bit more. Even if they're a little bit more explosive on the ground, I still have my concerns about the structure of the passing game. Against man coverage is the number one thing, but the number that jumped out to me, like it just was staggering when I looked at this.

So in number of attempts in under two and a half seconds, the chiefs had the fourth most in the league last year. Just think anecdotally about what watching that offense is. He's catching the ball out of the gun, boom, gone, boom, gone. He sees so much stuff pre-snap. They're getting the burn of the ball so fast consistently out of that gun-based approach. It's always what they've been. So they were fourth in the number of attempts under two and a half seconds.

They were 26th in the number of completions that went for 20 plus yards on those plays. fourth in attempts, 26 in completions of 20 plus on quick throws. They had nine. The Lions had 26. I was going to guess that's got to be the team. That's number one.

Jared Gophis has... 26. ...eaten very well off those. That's insane. That is the most like we're just getting by style of offense to be. And how does that change? Even if we are going to concede

that Kenneth Walker can really transform what the run game feels like. And I, trust me, as somebody who is weighing, holding on to Kenneth Walker in my dynasty league because of this. I'm really hoping that that ends up coming to fruition. I still have real questions about what this passing game can look like if the structure doesn't change because guess what?

The personnel sure didn't change. So what is going to feel different about this group in order for us to get beyond some of the frustrations that we have begun to feel and how boxed in this thing had really started to feel last year? I don't have an answer to that that I find satisfactory. I don't either. Like the wide receiver talent is to me. I mean, I've been saying it for two years now the way that this wide receiver room is built.

Like, again, I guess you're hoping that one of these young players takes a step, but until I see that, I'm not going to bet on a fourth round pick from last year and a fifth round pick from this year really doing a whole lot for you. I think it really does just have to come down to Kenneth Walker being explosive. And I actually really like the point of what you say with them potentially being a little bit more of like an under center. I think in my mind, almost more of like a two-back offense. Like Noah Gray, the best way to use him is a.

movable piece as a blocker. You do not want him like as your why just like kicking at. Like that's not really what he does. You want to think of him more of like a Sam Leporta type of piece where he can move around for you, be a fullback, be an age, be a wing. I do think that could help them if they like really leaned into that a little more. You bought at this point though, Derek. The fact that they don't have that guy and they didn't add that guy, how much can you

really be that sort of run game without that skill set within the offense? And so I just still have my concerns about how they move beyond some of those things that really started to weigh them down over the last couple years. The last number that I'll throw out overall last year with Mahomes, the Chiefs average 6.3, it's 6.73 plays per drive.

This is how we get to the advanced numbers being really good, by the way. They string drives together. Like, they do move the ball consistently. They converted more fourth downs than I think any team in the league last year. Like, they are getting new sets of downs. The problem is that's all of their

getting. So they average 6.73 plays per drive with Mahomes last year. There is a bigger gap between them and the chargers at number two than there was between the chargers and the Rams at number 15. That's insane, actually. Maybe that's why they felt so gross, too. It's like they're just holding onto the ball forever. They just can't because they don't have it closes.

The quarterback is so good at manufacturing completions and first downs, but they don't get explosive plays. Their scoring drives last year were about nine. nine plays long, 8.93, the only team, and this actually makes sense stylistic when you think about it, that had more plays per scoring drive last year, was the Panthers. Oh, another just rock fight slop. Correct response. That's like horseshoe theory almost, you know, where, well, or it should be anyway,

based on what the chiefs have been capable of. But yeah, that's who they've been. Like, they're always going to be efficient with Patrick Mahomes operating at the last. level that he's been on, but they just, they have not had the juice. I hope Kenneth Walker can change that, but yes, like in my mind, a quintessential chief's drive is like 11 plays. The longest gain is seven yards and good chance it ends in a field goal attempt. And if you have, I mean, when they had offensive linemen, they were consistently getting penalized, you're just asking for trouble. Like, if you're going to have to go 10 plays every time you want to score and you have an

offense that's going to shoot itself in the foot pretty consistently, you're just always going to be in a bad way, even again, if the underlying advanced numbers look pretty good. And so where I land with this is, I have inherent faith in the quarterback. I really do. But I'm in a spot where you got to show me. Like, I'll believe it when I see it with this team and like what I should reasonably expect from the offense because going back and looking at all these numbers, going back and watching those games, there are undeniable moments of excitement.

it. Like I do think that again, when they are playing, it's a team that plays a lot of zone and you watch them exploit certain areas of the field. They can do it. But there are just too many dead ends. There are too many dead ends with how the offense was constructed last year and how the offense wanted to play last year. And you need to show me that you can find your way out of the cul-de-sac here. Because right now, I'm not totally sure they can. But again, like, when you're framing those expectations, you're, you're talking about like to be the those chiefs to be the offense you should be with patrick mohomes as your quarterback yeah fair yeah i'm probably ship has sailed on that front and i honestly wonder how much i would mean if the ship has sailed what are we doing here well because i still because if

we're saying like again i giving them the benefit of the doubt to be the fifth best offense no despite all of all of what we just talked about they were still an above average offense last year and I think they added talent. I do think that they will be a good offense. And I know this is mostly about the offense. I do think there's a chance that the defense is better and like not even just better, but more spagsy in the sense of like maybe they're a little bit boom or bust, but they are creating turnovers and creating negative plays that gives their offense more

good opportunities, which I do think like leans into the way that this team wants to play football. So I do not think this team is going to win 13 games. can they win 11 games and still be like the fifth seed in the AFC? I would probably bet on that, yeah. I just can't wait until it's Thanksgiving. And the Chiefs are sixth in EPA per play and sixth an offensive DVOA, and I hate watching them play.

It's going to happen for the third year in a row. I was going to say, that's been the story for a minute at this point. But that's, it's interesting to think about because the totality of the Chiefs is a team that should win 10 plus games. and be in the playoff mix. Like, offense, defense, all of it. Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes. But like, yeah, to your point, what does that mean when we've seen the highs that the

chiefs are capable of? Like, if they're a run-of-the-mill 10-7 team that's not always fun to watch, like, who gives a shit about that? I want to see 50 touchdowns. If that guy is your quarterback and he's still as good as we seem to think he is. And it's an interesting place we've reached with the discussion. of him and Josh Allen and Lamar and where he ranks in the overall hierarchy. And I think you could make a serious argument that Lamar and Josh Allen have played better

than him over the last couple years. I'm willing to hear that argument because I do think that his game has been just a little bit shakier than it was with him at his best. But again, I think the offense and how they're trying to play offense goes a long way and making it feel that way. Like playing, obviously the offenses are structurally different, but playing and the gun 80, 85% of the time, whatever you're going to do, is a lot easier when you have Jamar Chase and T. Higgins than it is when you have the receivers that the Chiefs do.

And so I think that what you're putting on the quarterback with a way that the Chief's offense is structured is an untenable way to live given what is around the quarterback. I'm not saying he is completely absolved from blame, but I think that you're asking so much from him just based on the way that you play. it's almost impossible for him to make good on that with how you're structuring the offense. It's much easier to do that when you just have aliens. Like I'm fine with the Bengals wanting to play that way

because they have the receivers to justify it. The chiefs do not. And so, yeah, has he played worse over the last couple years than he was playing at his best? Absolutely. But I still think that in the right circumstances, even with a little bit more help and a little bit more off of his plate,

he can still be the best quarterback in the NFL, easily. I do too. Like, I still think, even for as shaky as some of it has been, I still think he has some of the best shot selection I've, not even just in the league now, but that I've ever seen. Like, it is truly up there with like Brady and Breeze just in terms of him knowing what throws he's got to make. And again, I think that's, it's almost like that's why the offense looks shaky instead of bad. It's like he's lifting it up to that level of only being shaky instead of it probably being bad for all. But like, I think even for as good as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are, I do not think this offense would have the floor that it has with either of those two players.

Because I do think Patrick Mahomes' shot selection is that special and that, like, connective to the way that they do things. I also think when you watched him last year, he was pressing. He needed to. Yeah, that's right. Or what were they going to do? He was pressing. He needed to.

Even going back, I watched the Lions game this morning. The Lions game, we remember, is this really impressive win for the Chiefs. What, they square 30 points in that game? The amount of plays that were explosives because he's finding something late in the down where he's having to create and make a second reaction play, the offense wasn't some like unstoppable machine in that game.

Like, we remember even good games, even in good games, I think it's important to like reframe what is being asked of the quarterback and just how not smooth it feels. Like there is friction, even in games where they're scoring 30 points,

that there just aren't, there just isn't, with some of these offenses that are just taking more off the quarterback and just making a little bit easier on everybody. There is nothing easy happening here. And so even if he has played a little bit worse, I think that there's a very clear line to draw between for how that's happening.

I guess that's where I land with this. Every Chief's box score is so disgusting. Like Patrick Mahomes, two-yard rush, Rishie Rice, three-yard rush, Xavier Worthy, three-yard touchdown catch. Travis Kelsey. 10 plays to get there. Eight-yard touchdown catch. Like all of all of their touchdowns are from inside the 10-yard line.

And yeah, that's, I hope that is something that can change this year, whether it's Kenneth Walker or another reason. I hope we get like 350-yard Kenneth Walker touchdowns. It would be a great place to live if you're a football watcher and a Sheeps fan. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be back a little bit later this week tomorrow is another way of saying that. We'll be back tomorrow with our buddy Aaron Schatz. from FTN Fantasy.

We're going to be chatting a little bit about some of the nuggets from this year's. I was almost going to call the Football Outsiders Almanac, the FTN Almanac, which has been a very important resource for me going back almost 20 years now. Probably has been 20 years. I think the first one I had was the 2008 Football Outsiders Almanac. It was one with Namdi Asimbaugh on the cover. Our producer, Katie, was...

What a moment in time. Closer to 20 years than I would want to admit. I used to have the physical copies. I remember my first year at Grant when I printed it out in the ESPN offices. So it was like 400 pages. God, that cost you what? I mean. Well, yeah, fair enough.

I was in the office. I want to know what that costs. As someone who worked on the almanacs for like six or seven years, it's a lot of pages in there. So you bring your almanacs and I'll bring all of my beasts because I think I have every single one. I think I do still have a couple of them in my bookshop. I might try to bring them tomorrow. That's going to tear the. bookcase down. It's going to weigh like 60 pounds. I actually do need some new bookcases too.

And I might be asking for trouble if I take them off, but that's okay. All right, that is all we've got for today. We'll be back tomorrow. Sincerely appreciate guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.