The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Best Teams Draft & We Wouldn't Be Surprised If...

Episode Date: September 4, 2023

Robert Mays and Nate Tice put some skin in the game as they draft who they think will end up with the best records at the end of the 2023 regular season. Whoever has the most wins, is our winner! And the loser has to pay off a bet in person at the Super Bowl. Who ya got?! Plus, we go through a little round of "We Wouldn't Be Surprised If..." with some bold predictions for the 2023 season.Sponsored by BetterHelp - This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/MAYS and get on your way to being your best self.This episode is sponsored by Sleep Number®: Save $400 on the New Sleep Number® c4 smart bed. Plus, special financing for a limited time. Only at Sleep Number® stores or sleepnumber.com. Sleep Number. The Official Sleep and Wellness Partner of the National Football League. See store for details.Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period at shopify.com/mays. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today is my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing extremely, extremely well. I feel like once we finish the NFC East preview pod, it was almost like a season is starting. That's it.

No more previews. We're about to start Labor Day weekend. You got any fun plans this weekend? You do anything on your last free weekend? Nothing. Nothing watching football all the weekend. That's really it. But my wife does photography and so like professionally.

So she has some shoots on Sunday. And so I'm being a very good dad on Sunday. And I can do that. That's the last Sunday I'm available for 22 weeks. So might as well get it in now. I'm getting my good dad ship right now. That's good. I'm sure you'll enjoy that.

Nice little quiet weekend. So we I've already done all the previews. If you have not listened to all of our division previews, they're available in your podcast feed. We have individual videos on all 32 teams on our YouTube channel. So if you just want to watch your team, that is readily available on the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel. Today we're going to do our first of two kind of preview-y predictions short of shows that we're going to throw out here the week of the season. We're recording this on Friday, just a disclaimer.

So we don't have to record over the holiday weekend. This will be in your feeds on Monday. So if anything changes between now and then, just keep that in mind. And then Thursday of this week, we're going to have our typical awards predictions short of show. But we wanted to do something a little bit different this year. So on the second half of this show, we're going to trot out some mildly spicy thoughts about the NFL season. The way that we're couching this is I wouldn't be surprised if blank. So this isn't something you necessarily believe will happen.

But you think that there is a reasonable chance that it happens. So this is a way to protect ourselves while also throwing out some stuff that we want to try it out there before the year. There's a couple that even reasonable might be a stretch for what I'm about to present. I'm so glad. Because I held back on mine. So I really hope that you're swinging for the fences with yours. It's a mix. It's a mixed bag.

But how I looked at it was a non-zero chance. So even if there's a multiverse where this happened, like that is kind of how I'm looking at it. So there's some that aren't like that. But there's a couple that. And just hear me out, everybody. It's not saying this is going to happen. But I'm just saying there might be one timeline where this happens. The other thing that we're doing today, we wanted to do something this season where we had some skin in the game over the course of the year, where we had stakes over the entire.

a regular season. So what we're going to do is we're going to draft 10 teams, five teams each that will be our teams over the course of the year. At the end of the year, whoever has the least wins total among these five teams will lose a bet during Super Bowl week. You will have to pay off a bet publicly during Super Bowl week. I don't want to say what it is. Yeah, it's marinate on this.

I want to, well, we've already decided. You don't remember this? no I don't. Oh, this is great. This is great. Was it dinner oriented? No, it was not dinner oriented. Okay.

Okay, I thought that would have been my first bet was a bit like, oh, yeah, pay for dinner. It is a, it is a bet you do not want to lose. So when you guys are thinking about this as we talk about it all year, I don't want to lose the heat off the bet when we eventually get to that place. So I don't want to give it away. Just know that I remember now. Both of us want to avoid having to do this. I remember it now. I remember it now.

Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. I remember now. Okay. Yep.

Do not want this. Do not want this. So I wish that I could give it. It came back to me like a ton of breaks. I wish that I could talk about it so everyone would understand the real stakes involved here, but I don't want to lose the value of springing it on people when we get to that point. So just know over the course of the year, this is something where I'm afraid of losing. So when we talk about this, when we look at the scoreboard, a quarterly, however often we look at it,

just keep that in mind. Yeah. So we're going to determine the draft order here in the best way that I know how. Did you bring a coin? Yes. I have a coin. I have one in my hands, okay? Okay.

You call it has or tails. Okay. Right now or in the air? In the air. Now? Oh, just call it now. Just call it now. Now, tails.

Always. It's heads. Ah. You deferring? All right. Deferring to the second half. Are we, we're not snake drafting this or are we just going on one to? Going straight order.

Straight order. Okay. Yes. I'm already going off my board. Because for whatever reason, I didn't think I'd have the number one pick. I'm picking the Bengals first. Wow. Okay.

Yeah. Okay. First overall wins. Yeah. What if they won the last two years? So they won 11 last year? They went 12 last year. Oh, yeah.

12 and 4. That's right. Okay. All right. So I have another one of my half-baked takes later on that will prop this up. So I'm going to go. I'm going with the Bengals first. I don't know how good I feel about it, but I'm going to the Bengals first.

Man, I thought I was going to get. him on like second round okay well i'm going to chiefs yeah i figured yeah that was yeah that was uh that's good there okay well i got i got i got make sure so i don't become the idiot that like repeats a team okay all right bangles and chiefs weird the last two the last two a fc conference final i don't want to spoil the bangles point i'm going to make later but we talked about them during the a fc north preview they are just so championship ready that that roster joe borough's back practicing I just think that they're positioned to have a really good regular season at the very least. I love that Zach Taylor.

Sorry, Zach Taylor going like someone asked him. Like, it was it good to have Burrow back? And he's like, and you could tell his quote, I'd even hear him, but I read it.

And he was kind of like, yeah. Like, yeah, it's good to have Joe Burrow back practicing. Yeah, it's really sends a nice energy throughout the room. My reasoning for not picking the Chiefs first is I just think after you win the Super Bowl,

there's just a little bit of juice that you lose. It's inevitable. It's human nature. So that, That's my reasoning with wanting the Bengals over the Chiefs just because if you're trying to win the regular season and that's what we're trying to do here, I just feel like the Bengals are a little bit more revved up about making sure they get the most out of the 20, 23 regular season. That's my reasoning. And I just think the Chiefs are guaranteed for 11 wins. So I'm kind of just taking that.

It's not a bad stance. It's not a bad stance. Okay. At three, and this is surprising. This is interesting. Based on some of the thoughts I probably trotted out to you at some point this summer. but looking at schedules, looking at competition. I know you're about to say.

I'm going with the Eagles at 3. Yeah, that's who I would have gone here. Yeah, I was hoping you wouldn't because I kind of. I don't necessarily think that they're the third best team in the league, but in the AFC and just the slate of teams they're going to play. They play first place schedule. It's not like it was last year. But even with the first place schedule, they've got a much easier road than a lot of the teams in the AFC.

Because you got to think who came in first place last year. They got the bucks. So, okay, that's not too bad right there. and they got the Vikings and the 49ers. So, okay, but I, I was hoping you didn't because I kind of want that. And I'm just going to make this fun. I'm going to take the Cowboys right here. So now we got, so now we got real, real juice right here.

So I'm just doing that for fun because I just think that. They were seventh on my, sixth on my board. They were sixth on my board. So why are you doing this then? Huh? It's just for fun. Just for entertainment value? Okay.

Yeah, entertainment value. I wanted to have a go one, one, one. I didn't want you to like pile up the NFC East and you just got that little corner over there to yourself. Well, that would be a bad idea. That would be lowering my ceiling if I piled up the NFC East. Oh, yeah, because we're just doing wins as opposed to playoff stuff. So yeah, okay. No, I'm sticking.

I'm sticking with the Cowboys. I'm going with the Cowboys here. Yep. Verbal bets are binding. All right. This is a tough one. I'm between two teams. I'm going to go with the Bills.

Ah, what I'm fall. That's who I would have taken. Probably I should have taken. I'm going to go with the Bills. bills. So I have the Bengals, the Bills, and the Eagles so far. I was between two teams. I'm curious if you will take the other team that I was thinking about here. I think the bills are, again, I don't want to spoil one of my takes that I'm throw out later. The AFC East is theoretically much, much better. And that is my only concern

is that they play a beast of a schedule this year. But I just think this Bill's team is really good. I think there's a ton of talent on this Bill's team. And that's the bet that I'm making, despite the teams they have to play against week to week. No, no, I really like the bills. So I'm not squint at that at all. But this is. All right. So that's five. So our first five were Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Bills.

Stop saying it like that. The Cowboys. We're sure about that. Hey, hey, I had them six, though it's not crazy. Yeah. Oh, man. Yeah, I know the bills. I had the bills ahead of them.

That's why I'm like really kind of kicking myself right here because I should put you in a bind. I'm going to go with this is, this is tough. I'm going to go with the 49ers. Damn it. That was the one I was choosing between. I was really hoping you weren't going to pick them. I was sticking in with my board here because I was torn between two teams. But I'm going to have 49ers, just everything we laid out, betting on Kyle Shanahan and just the rest of that roster, no matter what.

I'm curious who the other team that you were, I think I probably know. You probably do. All right. It's not the Falcons if you're wondering that. I do not think it was the Falcons. Okay. Okay. I assume it was one of two teams.

that I am not going to choose with this. Okay. I already regret this. Okay. I already hate myself for doing it. Love this. I'm going to do it anyway. I'm going with the chargers.

Yes. Yeah, they're good. Good. Just take them out. I'm glad. I'm fine with that. I'm so mad.

I already am so mad at myself for doing it. I'm fine with that. I just can't, if doing an exercise like this and getting to be, have any sort of investment in them, if they go 12 and 5 and I didn't pick them as part of it. stock on them. I would have been so mad at myself.

I'm willing to live with teams below them winning a dozen games and them going, winning eight games, more than I'm willing to live with not picking them and having the season where it all comes together. And they can win the double digit games. They absolutely can. Yeah. It's not a hell of a way. It's totally in the realm of possibilities.

It's just more, you know, maybe some sustainability as if once they hit the, the playoff months. I'm kind of glad you took them off. I'm going to go with the Ravens here. I figured the Ravens would be your next team. That was the one I was the signed between with the Four Naird.

So I'm going to go with the Ravens. So we got one team left? One team left each. Okay. So one team left each. I got three teams to pick from here. I had the Chargers above the Ravens on my actual award. So it's not like I went off of it.

I had them seventh on my list. Okay. So I don't feel that bad about it. At nine. So I had the Ravens and the Chargers flipped. The team that I had at eight, Jacksonville Jaguars. I was hoping you kind of let them This is a bet against the rest of the AFC South.

That's what this is. Them playing against those teams for six games, even with the first place schedule in the AFC, I think that there is a real path, even if they're a flawed team for them to win 11 or 12 games this year. And to get them ninth and have them be a double-digit win team, potentially, to bet I'm willing to make. I know it would even better if we had points for like division champs or something.

Like, you know what I mean? And like that would be... You're trying to make this way too complicated. I have to. I love board games. I love rules. This is really tough because it's kind of a heart and a head kind of selection right here between. I'm going to go with my heart.

I'm throwing in the Falcons here. I have the 10th on my board. I knew. I knew they would get picked as part of this exercise. I knew it. Someone has to have stake in them because it was between them and the Steelers if I'm being open here. It's like just I think, you know, another winning record is almost guaranteed. So you're getting those nine wins potentially more this season with Mike.

on that defense and the ascension of the offense. But going with my heart, going with the Falcons, because I think I've just built a such a canon this offseason in my head of how everything's going to unfold. Cannot wait for it to get blown up. This is going to be going to be going to be going to be fan of menace in theaters. Oh, episode one, it's going to be amazing. It's going to be great. It's going to have all this stuff.

Even at 10 years old, I was like, this sucks. Bejian is Jar Jar Binks. Oh, don't put that on him. Here we go. He's a nice window. Okay. Here are our teams each. I have the Bengals, the Eagles, the Bills, the Chargers,

which I'm mad at myself for, and the Jags. Those are my five teams. I'm happy with that. I think the bills have five is like the best value. Oh, I was really hoping you were going to go with the Ravens over the nine years. I was really hoping that you weren't. Because if you had gone with the Ravens, I would have had four of my top five teams on my board. If you had gone with the Ravens at five.

So I'm a little at this point, or six, I'm a little bit of this point. You didn't. Your teams are. the chiefs, the cowboys, the Niners, the Ravens, and the Falcons. Yep. I'll make a little mix there. A little mix. A little mix of heart and head.

I knew the Falcons were going to go in this. I knew one of us was going to take them at 10 because it just surely, purely for the enjoyment of getting to root for it all year, which I think is worth the bet that you're making. That being said, it is a real bet with real stakes. I will keep reminding people of this. we do not want to lose this. This will make a day during Super Bowl week very unenjoyable for one of the two of us.

And that is all I will say. And I would have to commute doing it. It's the best. It's the best. I hope you see somebody you know if you lose. I will. I mean, like not from the football world. That would be harder to explain to them why.

Yeah. Oh, I know. I know. My Vegas friends kind of know. You know, no, well, they think I live in fantasy land anyways with this job. So that's kind of it. I do live in a city where actually it's like kind of reasonable what I do. Everyone's like, yeah, yeah, okay, that makes sense.

You know, in Vegas, because it's like you can say what you're, I'm a magician. And people go, oh, which hotel? Nice. Which casino? Like, you know, that's one place in the world where that's okay. All right. So those are our 10 teams. That is those are the teams that we will be rooting for throughout the entire season.

I'm very much looking forward to that. Let's kick this off. These are our half-baked, mildly spicy. We would not be surprised if blank happened in the 20-23 NFL season. I've got like 8 to 10 of these. We can rip them off pretty quickly, but I'm going to let you have the floor because you lost the draft. Yes, and I have varying levels of spiciness here.

And this actually, even my first kind of, I would not be surprised if kind of take here, actually it goes against my draft already. All four of the 2022. NFC division champs will not repeat, meaning we'll have new division champs throughout the whole entire NFC. So that means I'm saying

potentially the Seahawks over the Niners, somebody over the Vikings, the Falcons over the bucks or the Saints over the bucks, and if we look at the east, somebody over the Eagles, potentially the Cowboys. So I'm saying a new champion. And if I wanted to go super spicy, I would say seven of the eight champions are different,

except for the Chiefs, because that's even against the Jaguars. Because I'm going with John Green's, uh, you know, John Green, the writer kind of, he does internet videos too. He wrote like a fault in our stars and stuff. But he does a crash course in history and he has a running joke that says, everyone except the Mongols. And that's the chiefs.

Like they're, they're just the exception to every rule that we have right these days. So, so new chair. The NFC north, that would be the Ravens, right? And theoretically. Or the AFC North. In the AFC North, that would be the Ravens. No, I'll say, NFC.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Ravens. Brown Steelers. Revens or Browns and Steelers. Okay. AFC East is any of them.

Jets are dolphins. Theoretically. Most likely. Yep. AFC West, not the Chiefs. And then I would say just the Titans are sneaky over the jacks, but I really don't feel that one. I didn't want to say six out of eight because that doesn't really have as much as much weight there. So really the take is the NFC teams.

So we'll just stick with that. If that happens, your board is torpedoed immediately. I know. I know. I know. That's what I guess. I guess, Cowboys. Just the Calks over the nine or.

Over the 90s, that would be it. I was wondering if the Seahawks were going to be in contention for the 10th pick in your draft with them in the Falcons. I was wondering if you were going to consider them there. It's like that's more like a betting take, if that makes sense, because I like their odds and everything, as opposed to like I bet. I feel better about the 40-9ers just in general because of Shane-of-hand, even with quarterback stuff. But it's just like as I bet because of the odds are good. I like the ascension of them. I think that's why I like I keep kind of harping on the Seahawks a little bit.

But no, that's a good point. independent of our feelings about the Falcons, by the way, they have the number one easiest schedule in the NFL by Vegas projected win totals. So picking them 10th there is not crazy. The Saints are number two. So it's mostly NFC-South-driven. But if you're going to make a bet on one of those other teams,

Atlanta, I think there's a lot of other reasons aside from our strange curiosity in their weirdness. Right. If they were the AFC East, I'd be like, well, you know, they might be interesting. They might get seven or eight wins. That's a huge part of why I'm very optimistic on the Falcons. All right. So I'm going to do one that's kind of tangentially related to the one that you just did.

I would not be surprised if four of the best teams in the NFL this season played in the AFC North. Okay. Yeah. So 40% of the best teams in the league played in the AFC North. Other ones would be the Cowboys, the Eagles, the Niners, the Bills, maybe one of the other AFC West teams and the Chiefs. So that would take us to 10. and the other four are in the AFC North. I think the Ravens have those top 10 shows.

I really kind of, I understand your thinking here. It's going to be a bloodbath. And that's why I wanted to avoid any of the teams in the AFC North when we were doing our draft, just because I just think that they could hammer each other the entire year. The Ravens have a super high upside with the changes that they made on offense. I think the stability that Mike McDonald gives them on defense. The Steelers, if their offense takes a step forward, if Kenny Pickett does, We know their defense has a ton of talent.

They were one of the best defense in the league down the stretch last year. The Browns just have so many good players top to bottom on both sides of that roster. I think their defense is going to be vastly improved. And the Bengals, I took first in this exercise. I guess I took the Bengals first, but I didn't take any of the other AFC North teams. I was like, wait. I didn't take any of the other AFC North teams. I took the Bengals first.

Dude, it's a bloodbath. It is tough. I'm very excited for our next show. It's scared already about taking the Bengals. I'm very excited for our next show when we have to pick like division winners and playoff teams like because it's going to be very very difficult. So even if the records settle a little lower because they're playing each other,

if those four teams finish like in the top 10 of DVOA, I would not be surprised at whatsoever combined. I wouldn't at all either. I think they're all very good teams, all interesting teams. Really excited to watch that division. You're up, buddy. What's your next one? Okay.

I would not be surprised if Sam, Sam Darnold ends up as the QB for the 49ers by the time to play it. By the time Thanksgiving rolls around. I'm not even going to say playoffs. By the time Thanksgiving rolls around. Originally it was playoffs. I changed it to the Thanksgiving. I love that you're just trying to will this into existence.

Will it? Dude, he looks so good. You will not be denied. I just want to see it. I just want to check the box. It's like, can I see him with Kyle Shanahan in this offense? Okay. Now it's realistic.

With Tray lands out of there and him being the number two quarterback, even without injury, it feels like there might be a slight door that's open because of how little the Niners have invested in Brock Purdy. Deep down, man, I just, I think they see this. They saw him in preseason two and the quotes there coming out. Shane and I will say, you know, some skill guys get into his doghouse a little bit, guys he drafts. That's like kind of a thing, him and his dad, which is hilarious. But like, I will say that he is really good at instilling confidence in players, like his quotes and everything. Like he's just very supportive.

And he's with that with Purdy. He has never even wavered like, oh, you know, like this. But I think he's seen Darnold. And he's like, he's kind of going like, he's made throws I haven't seen, haven't had a guy make before. Like I'm like, yeah, that's the quote I want to hear, buddy. So I'm just betting on that. I think they see what I see.

I have no idea what's going outside that room. Pretty hasn't done anything yet to lose the job. But, you know, there is a path that this might happen. I love this. I love that you want it so bad. I have a deep respect for how ardently you're chasing this. Oh, there's a couple here that might be. It's chasing my head, my own storylines.

Part of the reason I think I am not that hard on Kyle Shanahan compared to some other people, outside of the fact that I understand everything that's happened, even if the trade when you look at the value for Lance is just an absolute disaster. But I think that he might be the most impatient man in America. Yeah. And I am second. So every single time he gets excited about an idea and then it doesn't work for 10 seconds, he's like, I'm done with this.

I'm on. This is it. I'm moving on to the next thing. that's how I live every moment of my life. So I think that's why I don't bring the hammer down on him super hard because I relate to that style of existence. I think it's just every time I've ever gotten down on him a month later, I'm like, I'm back. Because I just watch every time, every offense I watch, I'm just like, yeah, I'm all in on this. Because I think we've done it twice now.

We're like, hey, is this really going? Like, is this it? The McCaffrey trade was that too. Where we're sitting there in the moment, it's like, man, it's a lot to give up for a running back. And then I remember I said on the show, I was like, I'm really. excited to watch it on the field, but man, like, who knows? And then now I'm like, man, that was awesome. What inspired move they made right there. I feel like you have to put the glasses on from the Trinity Test in Oppenheimer when you started watching that offense with

McCaffrey. Sunscreen all over my face. Yeah. All right. I alluded this a little bit. These two will be couched together. I would not be surprised if the Bengals are the best regular season team in the NFL. They haven't done it yet. They're super talent at top the bottom. They just have the feel of one of those teams that's just going to put the gas on the floor, try to go 14 and 3, you know, really just make a huge run in the regular season just because there's a real urgency there based on the last couple seasons have ended. The bills felt like that team last year. And then obviously things fall apart a little bit.

I think the bills have kind of taken a step back and understood we just want to get to the end of the road. We don't care about being the story of the season. We don't care about being the team that has all this hype coming into it. Literally said to me, you know, when I was there, just the fact that they really loved that there was a little bit less attention on them and the expectations had been dampened a little bit. The Bengals are not that.

I think the Bengals are kind of taking all of this on. We're ready. Like, we are ready to be that team. We've removed the doubt. We are ready to be that team. So I would not be surprised that they finish the season with the best regular season record. That's why I took them number one.

A lot of teams, especially successful teams, take the image of their head coach and their quarterback. Bengals feel like Joe Burrow. Yes, they do. Just confident. But not cocky. Well, border wine. But it's but just.

But just- Like an endearing way. An endearing way. That's what I'll say. That's what I'll say. Yes. Yes. That's,

that was the famous quote about Ryan Leaf, I think. Oh, he's cocky, but like in a good way. Like, Brett Farr. Like, that was the quote about Ryan Leaf coming out. When Burrow came out with the new hair this spring, I was just like, man, he's feeling it.

They are going for it. I think that's like 80% Burroughs haircut is how my reason. Every teammate that's ever played with Burrow like talks about. Oh, Joe? Oh, like they're just like, oh, cool, cool. Yeah. You want to be that as a quarterback. It's actually not a guy.

as Ken pulled that off. They usually come across as like Baker. That's how they usually look when they try to be cool. My other one that's kind of related to this. Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised that this was the best bills team that we've seen so far. Maybe not in total wins and losses, but performance underlying metrics, the most complete bills team we have seen since this restructure, since this retool, this era of the

bills, I would not be surprised this is the best one. I love that one. I've said that a couple times and I trotted out versions of that. but willing to say it again just to hammer it home a little bit. That's a good way to package it. I'm saving for the unleashed bill takes for, bills takes for maybe the next show, the spoilers.

But, uh, no, but I, I think we both have kind of really put together, starting with free agency and everything they've done. It's just like, okay, this is,

this is interesting. This is you guys are really becoming sound, uh, throughout the roster. So I, I totally agree with that one. That's actually a really good one. I should have taken that one too,

but I totally agree with that one. All right. Uh, it just, I'm going to ease into the, these. I want to save the next one. So I'm going to go, actually, this is kind of spicy. The Packers will end up with a better record than the Jets. I would not be surprised if. Ooh, that's a really good one. Right. And it couldn't even be crazy. It could be 9 and 8 compared to 8 and 9. You know, it doesn't have to be that crazy. But just that Packers, or sorry, that Jets offensive line has me worried. I've just seen that declete a lot of NFL seasons with a lot of good teams. I mean, I will. say that first drive with Rogers thrown to Garrett Wilson, though, it was like pretty

freaking special. I talked myself into it so hard. I don't know if I said this during our, during my fantasy draft this week or I said it to you, I can just imagine it going so well. With those two. His skill set, the way that Garrett Wilson wins, the violence at the line of scrimmage, you go back and you watch Devante Adams highlights from before last season, the way that the Packers actually used him.

And it is so easy to make the jump to that being Garrett Wilson, not to the same level, obviously. But the skill set that he provides, it just there's no imagination required. Different types of players, but can be used in the same way. And, and, oh, but he's already throwing them smokes and fades, signaling it to them. That's exactly what it is. As soon as I saw that. One two-man game where they can just play with each other. That's great. It's like, yeah. So he's just getting it peppered, I think, all year. That should actually be like a at Garrett Wilson take. But anyways, this was about the Packers as well. I'm bullish on the young Packers. Yes, they're relying on a lot of young players or riding on a question

mark a quarterback, but I do like what I've seen with Jordan Love. I can see the vision. I like the offensive line. I think the defense can be very interesting this year. Hopefully they kind of figure out their way, especially against the run. I'm still worried about it, man. Yeah, but that's why I would not be surprised if this happens because of just all the points I laid out.

Just that offensive line, I know the Jets defense is fantastic, but again, they're playing a very tough division. They're going to be fighting for their life every week in that AFC against Packers in the NFC, not playing a first play schedule. So just that's kind of what I'm going with And how my head can in again with this one Okay, I have two That are kind of related to the one that you just threw out there

So I'm just going to do them now, okay? Okay I would not be surprised if there was only one playoff theme from the AFC East Okay Okay And that team was the bill I like that Yeah, yeah

Talking about this being the best division in the NFL All the heat around the Jets and the Dolphins And just all the discourse around the AFCs FFC East all summer. I would not be surprised if there were one playoff team from that division. But also it's just we're excited and interesting teams. I wouldn't even throw on the Patriots in there,

but they have flaws that could be greatly opened up if stuff doesn't break their way. That's exactly right. Totally understand. Bechtin gives you more security about the Jets offensive line. Potentially, if he stays healthy, that's a much better version than it seemed might be on the table in early August. But there's still questions about how that group is going to

come together. Dwayne Brown is still 39 years old and has struggled to stay healthy. So I think there are a lot of issues there potentially. And same with the Dolphins offensive line. We've talked a lot about the Dolphins offense and some of the blemishes beyond injury that they exhibited in the back half of last season. So I, there are definitely worlds where both of those teams are very good and make the playoffs, but I would not be surprised if only one AFC East team did. My other one, there is a timeline that could work.

Related. The 10-win champion of the. NFC North will not be the Lions. Okay. Yeah, that is very related to what I just said. Yes. I would not be surprised if a team won 10 games in the NFC North and that team was not the Lions, which would mean either the Vikings or the Packers.

I like that. I know, you could just really see that the 10, 10 and 7 winner and then like the nine and eight, two nine and eight teams in second place and then, you know, a seven and 10 team, like a bunch of meeting in the middle and that to see North. So, nope, I totally agree. The Packers, you made the case. Yeah. The Vikings, we talked.

about it on our show. If their defense is annoying and they can create some splash plays defensively and their offense can show you the type of unit that they were for stretches during the second half of last year after the Hawkinson trade with a more efficient run game, I would not be surprised if they won 10 games. If they were a better team but won fewer games than they did last year. And that's what just has to be pounded away. And I know we say it 100 times and everyone has. Everyone knows this is that the AFC is like, you know, you have to have true contendership to even make the playoffs. Like you have to be up there.

NFC, it's more like you have to be interesting to be a playoff team. Like, okay, the Vikings have Justin Jefferson that is proven. They can figure out this offense. If they can figure out the defense to be okay or like he said, annoying, it's like, yeah, easily, easily make the playoffs with that kind of formula. That's, that's kind of how the NFC works this year. It was funny. I shouldn't even admit that I was doing this, but I was looking at some of the comments

on the lion, or it was on Twitter. I was looking at on Twitter and someone was talking about our conversation about the Vikings are a conversation about the lions. Some guy was like, you were worried about the weapons that the lions have, and then you were celebrating the Vikings going out and getting a blocking tight end. The Vikings have Justin Jefferson. They have the dude. He's the best receiver in the league.

They needed a blocking tight end. And the Vikings drafted a receiver in the first round. Right. That was the whole point of the discussion was even the other things that were excited about, this is like, it was just a role, we're talking about just how role players can help their other guys. And they have Hawkinson. They just paid a ton of money to.

How do you feel about that contract? I was going to ask you at some point in this conversation how you felt about the deal that Hawkinson got, which is $17 million a year and reset the tight end market. And that's the thing. I don't view him as an elite guy. I view him as that second tier of tight end as a receiver. And I think he's good. But it's a lot of money.

But I would say like Ari Fassan had a great tweet just talking about how percentage is so important with the cap always going up. So like you have to look at that way and how it grows. So that makes it a little bit more tolerable. You kind of have, like, they kind of set themselves up to pay him. You have to. You have to. You have to. And I know that's like a stupid argument to make, but it's true.

It's how it works. But I think he's more of a good to very good tier than that elite tier. But he's still a good player. It's rich and everything. But he's still a good player. It's not like he's a negative that you're paying, overpaying, or a certain role player. I had an interesting conversation with the GM about this idea of tight ends as secondary past catchers.

and how it could be a little bit of an efficiency. You get the same money as Christian Kirk. So that's less. He got less money than Christian Kirk. It's up to like $68.6.6. But the deal is for $4.66 with $42.5 guaranteed. So it is Christian Kirk. So yeah, I like it.

It is in the complimentary wide receiver range is what that contract looks like. But, and we've talked about this in relation to Dalton Schultz, a couple other players. Dalton, Kincaid, a couple other players. You still want receivers in those spots. Recevers are still better. past catching options than tight ends when you when you think about all of the matchups and what routes you can put them on from the slot all that kind of stuff so tight ends probably should get paid a little bit less than receivers so i don't know how much of an inefficiency there really is but when you have

a two-way guy that unlocked your offense in ways last year where you just have a secondary threat with justin jefferson on the field i don't think this is a crazy amount of money to pay a guy like that no oh no i never crazy never kind of hit my head because just how you like even if like you're saying argument. It's like, okay, you want the receiver and everything. It's just, you know, snaps play their valuable usage. A guy like Hawkinson is useful, just in other ways you can use him as a pass catcher. He's a two-way tight end. He's not a great, the greatest blocker, but he has a two-way time. He gets a job done. Yeah, exactly. But like, and then it also comes down to players. Like, that's why it's so hard to just broad swath it sometimes. Like every tight end is so wildly

different. I mean, just like every player, obviously, but it's like, you know, Darren Waller is wildly different than Hawkinson, who's different than Mark Andrews, who's different than Kelsey. Like, these guys are so different. So obviously, I think their contracts can never just be grouped the same because how their use is totally different. What's your next one? This one's a little spicy, more calling a shot.

And I didn't want to do it on the award show. So I'm just going to get it out here. Make a Fitzpatrick, and I put in parentheses, or a DB wins defensive player of the year. I would not be surprised. What was the last DB one defensive player of the year? Stefan Gilmore in 2019. Oh, okay.

So it hasn't been that long. That makes sense. The last safety was Troy Paul Maloo in 2010. So 13 years. So okay, a little bit of time. But he's the best safety in the game. He's entering his prime. He's only 26, which shocks me every time.

That's insane. 26. He's 26 years old? How? I thought that was wrong when I saw it. I thought that was wrong when I saw it. Oh my God. That's crazy.

Yep. He turns 27 in the middle of the season in November. Yeah, that one got me too. So I kind of did a little research on this. I think the Steelers are going to be very relevant this year. We've laid out, we think their defense is going to be damn good, improved offense. So they're going to have a little bit more steam behind.

him. So it's a national franchise or national fan base, the Steelers. They're very one most popular ones. So they have more eyeballs on them just from everybody else. He needs to force double digit turnovers or come close to it. He had six picks last year. So six picks last year. Six picks last year. The path to the turnover numbers for safety is just harder than it is for what he needs more than anything is a return TD on a national TV game. That is what gets you going. Oh my God. Oh my God. Oh my God. Make a Fitzpatrick. Oh my God. Big touchdown. Returns it for a touch on. He's had four in his career. He had one last year. When Paul Mowal won, he had seven picks and one TD and a force fumble. So I was like, okay, that's kind of comparable. And then I went back to Ed Reed when he won it. I want to say it was 2004. Ed Reed had nine picks, three forced fumbles and played on just like the best defense of the league. But he was also 26 when he won the award. Make it right now is 100 to 1 to win this award. But there's a, like I said, it's a non-zero chance of it. I think the Steelers are very relevant. I think the defensive front is going to cause so much havoc and so much pressure on quarterbacks that they're going to make mistakes and make it compounds those mistakes.

And he takes advantage of it. He's fantastic. He's one of my favorite players in the league, best safety in the game, I think. And I think just the narrative of the Steelers this year will maybe help him get some light. T.J. Watt might not get as many sacks because High Smith, all the other guys that they have, Harbig, if he does anything. So he might be very disruptive, but not get that kind of sack toll that he got when he won the defensive player of the year. And so I think the shine goes to Minka. Because even when Paul Moll would want it, I think it was Paul. Yeah, I think it was Paul.

When James Harrison came a third in defense player to a year that year. So it's kind of like I'm repeating that in my head. There's a reason that it's hard for safeties to win it. It's because the counting stats are difficult to get there. But he's the type of player that could potentially pull it off. I'm looking at Mick and Fitzpatrick's career stats. Mick and Fitzpatrick's on his way to go to the whole fame, man.

He's been in the first team all pro three times. He's only 26 years old. If he puts a couple of more of those together in the next couple years, He's going to have a very real argument to get in. He's awesome. The other D.B. I think could win it. Is Soss Gardner.

I put him in parentheses, yes. So I think that's a good one. He's 12 to 1. And I get it. There's a ton of really good pass rushers. Probably the best in a long time, really notable names that have some narrative behind him. But again, it just might be one of those where they all have 12 sacks. And everyone gets a little bored with that and goes, I'm going to give it to the DB.

I'm going to give it the. concern with this though is he going to get to a place where team just don't throw his way at all they they let him run around like that that's why he can he's all make his all over or you're talking about sauce i'm talking about sauce not make oh yeah sauce is tough yeah they don't even throw to him right now they play sides well he led the league in dip in passes defense last season yeah he got enough targets to rack up some of those counting stats watch the preseason other than one jlin high at target it's just like no we're not even to try that side he's so freaking good that's my concern though Because when Gardner, excuse me, when Gilmore won it, he led the league.

He had 20 passes defense and six interceptions. So I wonder if the target. How many the sauce had last year? Like only two or three, maybe if I remember correctly. He did not have many picks, but he deflected a lot of balls, which did you see hard knocks this week? No, I did not. So Salah, I think, is starting to give him shit about that.

So sauce came off the field in that preseason game. And he was asking, Saul, he's like, why did they even try me? And Salah said, when you start taking the ball away, I think they'll stop trying. So I think there's kind of like a little wink wink, like we need to pick more balls off this season. He did only have, with the Jets. He only had two last year.

And then even at Cincinnati, he didn't have a ton of picks, but it was just like, if you watch again, you watch Cincinnati, they didn't even try them. It was just like he would get targeted like three times and just bat every ball away.

So no, that's good. So maybe getting his head a little bit. That's really funny. Okay. Here's one that is a mutation. One that I kind of threw out to David Hellman when we did our half big,

takes her a couple weeks ago before this season. Shout out David, by the way. I was glad he came on the show. Yeah, Dave's the best. He's great. I think this has a chance to be the best year in recent memory for NFL offenses. Oh, love that. Love that.

I agree with, yes. Every year we have this tranche. I just watch the big short again. We have this tranche at the bottom that's like four to six teams that are just totally unwatchable. Yeah. And if you look at the teams that have comprised that group last year, Colts, Washington, the Broncos, the Jets, you know, during times last year, think about the moves those teams have made this offseason. The Colts could still be rough and that'll be one of mine here in a bit.

The rookie quarterbacks can maybe comprise this group, but even with the rookie quarterbacks, at least there's hope and faith. Yeah. It isn't like an unwatchable situation. With the Texas and the others. Yeah, definitely. Like there's some competence at the very least. Outside of the rookie quarterbacks, I think all of these teams that potentially could have offenses that we didn't love, there are pivot points where they can be much better than expected. Washington and Sam Howe, we talked about it on the NFC's preview.

The Broncos, who were terrible last year, going to Sean Peyton. Yes. The Jets getting-offensive mind. Yes. So that one, it was a bottom of the barrel unit that should be better. They don't have to be great, but just not unwatchable like they were last season. The Jets get Aaron Rogers. and the Packers get Jordan Love to replace Aaron Rogers.

So it's not like they're potentially taking a catastrophic step back, even if they're not going to be as good on offense. So figuring out who these really bad offenses are going to be outside of the Cardinals and the rookie quarterbacks is not that easy. Maybe quarterback injury is one of those things that affects it. Offensive line health in places like Los Angeles, Tennessee, etc. But I still feel like even the bottom area of the league, we're going to see better play from some of those offenses across the NFL. We did our top 10 offenses pod.

Hold on, two, three, seven, ten. I had 16 teams on my short list, quote unquote short list. And I was like, once I had notes on to make an argument for and then I started going through the rankings. So that that's just to put it there. And like you're saying, and I think that I agree with this argument is that there's a couple bad. but there's a lot more watchable offenses, like just an interesting offense. The Patriots another really good example.

Patriots are unwatchable last year. Bill O'Brien is now the offensive coordinator. So these teams that were unwatchable last year, but even like the Rams is on. Stafford's healthy is like, yes, definitely more watchable. Titans and Rams.

Yes. Because their quarterbacks, if they stay healthy, are competent NFL players. Yep. So the list is not very long to me. And then we'll get to the rookie quarterbacks here in a bit. But outside of those guys, I'm fair, and then maybe the bucks, you know,

with Baker Mayfield. But the bucks even have a decent amount of talent. across the roster. Worf's and receivers like Rashad White. I know. Ashad White, take it easy over there. Throwing Rashad White into the same conversation.

Mike Evans. So bad. I'm willing. I did not have any takes on him, but I'm willing him to exist. He's working number one now. So hopefully that gives him some juice. Yes.

It's going to make him faster. Dane and I had a like legit like seven minute conversation about the buck's second year tight ends. And which no one has talked about K. And then we did for seven minutes. on prospects the pros. You guys are sickos. My goodness.

What's your next one? I have two more. One is like not too crazy, but it's a little crazy. And then one is like wild. So I'm going to go with, and this again is more of an awards-based one. I would not be surprised if Trevor Lawrence ends up as a second team all pro this year. And that is watching this. What a weak take.

Just say he's going to be the MVP. Say he's going to be first to win the MVP. That would a week take. Just because that, I don't think that defense can keep a pro. pro second team all pro because my homes in my head should be first team all pro every year so all right that's fair okay yeah so how would you say it ends up as an old pro how about that so that is it's hard for me to just go oh he's gonna be over my homes because i just can't i can't i don't believe that uh i'm a bad liar if anyone ever meets me i'm a terrible liar so my mom has taken advantage

of that over the years uh but it's what so why i am so so you're so high as well on this jags offense yeah i got on the draft yeah i know And watching them in this preseason, I just said offense, not defense. So watching them in the preseason, though, all systems go. I, oh, my goodness. That run game looks fantastic and explosive. And now they sprinkle in Tank Bigsby, so they actually got a nice little complimentary back, the passing game. Trevor is going to pepper the hell out of Calvin Ridley this year.

And I don't want to give too many. It's so beautiful when it all comes together. It's amazing. You just, picturing his skill set. in that offense, the amount of comebacks and stop routes and blaze outs and all those routes they can hit outside the numbers that Trevor throws so well. It was what I imagined before I ever watched them play football together. And now like a little bit of preseason action and one practice, I feel very good about what it's going to look like and how I envisioned it in the past.

Calvin really and Matt Ryan actually always worked really well together because Matt Ryan is a timing base quarterback. You don't know definitely a popcorn arm. Who, what's my comparison for Trevor Lawrence? supercharged Matt Ryan. So yeah, it's great. It's magic. But a timing-based quarterback and a timing-based offense within an incredibly on-time receiver,

that's really where the bet's coming from. Although everyone else gets to step down, very high on that offense. I think Trevor's going to go gangbusters this year. All right. This is another one that's adjacent to that. I would not be surprised if Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert were the MVP of the NFL this season.

I like that, especially the Lamar one, actually. Yeah. The offensive shifts, and maybe it doesn't take. Maybe it takes another year. Maybe we see glimpses of what it can be, but it doesn't all come together in the first season. That has happened with even very good offensive coordinators in their first season with new teams, even very good quarterbacks. But I would not be surprised if one of these two offenses just went fucking nuclear over the course of the season and one of these guys won 12 games in the MVP award. I would not be surprised.

Hohms is still the best player in the league. Yeah. But people get bored. It's really hard to win two MVPs in a row. Really hard to do it. Yep. This isn't the 90s. This isn't.

Rogers did it, but it's, it's difficult to do. But the second one ever, you got to remember, it was kind of like by default. Because it was kind of like, all right, well, who else can we give it to? Brady maybe? I remember that discussion in that. This year, and again, this is tying into your offensive statement. So many interesting offenses. So many offenses with upside.

So many just at least they're like competent. And that makes the MVP race super interesting. and also just the team race, obviously, because you have to have team success. And that's why the MVP Jags won, or Trevor Lawrence one, I kind of couldn't get that far with it because I just think even a,

you know, I'm not sure if they can get over the top or he's going to get the MVP anointe anointe or reward. No, I like that one a lot. I think those, the offense is going to be very interesting this year and improved at the very least. I have one more.

Yeah, I have one more and then I have two scheme ones that I wanted to throw in just to have them on the record. Okay. There's one run game. based? No. Okay. I'll throw in a,

well, half one right now and said the run game is back. I would not be surprised. Oh, that one, yes. You talk so much about that. That I feel like is almost a given. But speaking of which,

speaking of the run game being back, Bejsh, I would not be surprised if Bejohn Robinson, I've learned it's Bejohn, not Bejohn, Bejohn, wins offensive player of the year. It's only a rookie who has only won it once.

And that was Earl Campbell in 1978. He's 66 to 1 right now. But if he, that's a great bet. I know, right? That's a great. That's a great bet it. Already bet it.

If he pushes 2,000 total yards, dozen plus TDs, you know, why not? Again, like you said, voters get bored. Are we going to give it to Justin Jefferson again? You know, who else comes up?

Who else can stand out in those types of, you can imagine the narrative juice too. It's about what happens. Team. Exactly. Exactly. Make it Fitzpatrick and that national TV touchdown return. If the Falcons are a 10-win team,

if they win the NFC, South. Surprise team. Do the Falcons have any national televised games? Oh, I don't know. They might not have any primetime games. You need your Heisman moment. But I just even while you're looking that up, I looked up when girl,

we won it in 2017. What? How many do they got? We both think the Falcons are like a double digit division winning team. They have no night games. Not even Thursday? Oh, my God. The only nationally televised game they have is it.

October 1st London game against the Jags. So it's the first thing in the morning? Oh, man, we should go visit that game. That is like, that athletic football show bowl. God, that is really funny. That is really funny. Nothing explains how far removed we are for, how far we remove we are from reality. Then us loving the Falcons and having no national prime time games.

That really epitomizes this show. Oh, God. That was somebody here at Vegas asked me who I like this year. And I said, oh, I like the Falcons. And I go, okay. And then I go, you know, I think the Broncos will be improved. And they go, they, like, looked at me like, are you, are you kidding? And I was like, I had to like go explain it.

I'm like, oh, yeah, this is, again, I get so deep into this stuff. And I'm like, yeah, anyone listening to the show kind of sees that how I can, how I sell myself on this. But just looking at when, for Bajon is that when Todd Grilly won in 2017, in 2017, in my head, I thought Gurley won in 2018. It was 2017. As my first year. Yeah. The first year, which makes, that's an 11 and 5 team. That was more like the.

surprise ramps as opposed to the next year where they were a powerhouse. He had 1,300 rushing yards, just over, 13 touchdowns. He had almost 800 yards receiving. So he just got over 2,000 yards. And he had 6 touchdowns receiving, I believe. But so 2,000 total yards, a lot of touchdowns. That's what he kind of needs to do. But it was a surprise team.

It wasn't the best team in that conference in that year, but a good team. So, yeah, I just think there's going to be some narrative behind him, some steam. He has name recognition already. It's not some random guy. So yeah, that's what I'm going to go with is my, I would not be surprised at non-zero chance. I like that one a lot. That one's a really fun one. All right.

Let's stick with rookies. My last one is the rookie quarterback led offenses, I would not be surprised if the rookie quarterback led offenses were uglier than we anticipated at times this off season. Yeah. When we were trying to talk ourselves into the floor for the Panthers, for the Texans. That's the number one one. A lot of it was look at the pieces they put in place. there's enough for them to be competent.

We've started to chip away at that a little bit. The Texans offensive line injuries, Kenning Green's out for the season. They're trading for Steelers' backups. George Fant's going to start the season at right tackle. The center that they drafted in the second round, Drew Scruggs has already hurt. So I hate that as a starting point. I'm worried after watching the preseason about the lack of juice that the Panthers

have at receiver. We had, we're questioning in our division preview. Did they do enough at those spots? I think my answer is no. DJ Chark has already been banged up. Yep. So I'm concerned about that. And the Colts, who the hell knows?

I mean, it's going to be such a unique approach on offense. It's all RPO's all just super, super run heavy. That was going to be up and down no matter what. So I think it's possible that there's some really ugly stretches from those three offenses this season. When I thought at times over the last six months that the floor might be a little bit higher than we typically see from rookie quarterback lead teams. it's a classic oh yeah and named that looks good and then you see it in practice and you go that's right Adam Dillon that's the problem when you're arguing for the floor is that if you're saying well the floor could be here there's always that's always a sketchy way to talk about it because

that's not how you want to conceive of these things it's sealing and and you can remember rookie quarterback is really freaking hard especially now in the NFL because how defenses are playing they're not I mean they might be actually this year a little bit more man coverage but You're spoiling stuff. Yeah. But, oh, really? Is that okay? But, oh, yeah, they're getting to it.

But when you, like, that's a lot, a little bit easier to read for a quarterback. If anyone's ever played, like, pick up football. Man, coverage. All right. Take my best guy. But then if you go zone and I have to, like, work this and trust my receivers and trust protection to go through progress. Or progressions, gets a little dicey. I'm with you because the Panthers preseason has really maybe sell a lot of stock on them this year.

I'm also talking myself into that, them having a terrible year. Oh yeah, I bet you are. They did trade for Amir Smith-Marset though. So that makes me a little bit interesting, a little bit more circling them a little bit. But I still with you at the Texans, although I will say what you're, what should add to this is that Richardson, Stroud and Young have all looked like promising this preseason. There is nothing where I'm like, this is not a indictment of them. No, that's what I want I just want to add to it is that them, there is nothing I've seen from all three of those guys where I'm like, oh no. like you guys, ooh, this is crippling.

It's like, no, okay, they all look how they looked in college. And which that's a compliment. So I think they're all going to be fine players. And that's what I talked about in the pre-draft process. But again, like you said, it's hard to build a competent winning team, especially with so much turnover of those teams. Two schematic ones that I just wanted on the record before we got started. Both of these are takeaways from my travels over the last month or so.

The dolphins will have the biggest influence. on offenses league-wide from last season. You will see a lot of motion in the same way that the dolphins did, where you're getting to that speed motion and having the receiver in motion, you're getting guys out onto the perimeter and using that to turn into your vertical passing game. You will see a lot more of that this season across the NFL. The other thing that you will see, this is very nitty-gritty, but I wanted it documented somewhere.

Every coach I had talked to, I always like to ask, what did you watch this off-season? What's the most interesting thing that you saw another? team do. Where's the copycat coming from? Yes. That's, yeah. And so three different offensive coordinators, three told me that it was the way that the

dolphins protect some of their play action concepts out of 11 personnel by pulling a guard or annually personnel package. Dash protection is what some teams call. You will see that all over the league this year. Dash protection is. Yeah, sorry. That is going to be, in my opinion, the Miami motion. Miami motion is the way that I was talking about it with people and that DAS protection stuff that the dolphins do.

That is like two of the smaller schematic trends in the NFL that I think will be very, very popular this year. And I have not talked about it yet and just wanted it on the record somewhere. You know who else does the jet motion into vertical stuff? The Falcons. So that is, but I bet you no one was watching Falcons tape last year. I can't wait for them to go 6 and 11. I just have to delete every take I've had for the last year. But yeah, but no, that's super interesting.

The creativeness with motions. And I remember we, I think I'm trying to remember which show we did this on, but I was saying that like, you know, what's cool is a million motions. You know, what's cooler is a billion motions like that. Teams are just realizing what they can do with it. They're,

it's getting even more weaponized. So it, and again, these are younger coaches. They're more creative and more willing to, I'll say, I'll say get influenced by like Quinn Tarantino does not steal, but he gets influenced by an homage to other movements.

All of these guys grew up in a video store. All these guys grew up in a football video store, the guys that were watching throughout the league right now. Mike McDaniel literally, because his dad was the video guy. So he literally did, except for film. These guys are all, they've lived in a world of advanced technology.

They've lived in the football video store their entire careers. Last one, you alluded to it a little bit. I would not be surprised if we started to see the defensive pendulum and start to swing back this year. Yeah. I don't think it'll happen wholesale. It'll be in little bits and pieces, but I think we're starting to see it. The amount of man, the Eagles will play compared to what they did last year.

These teams that we talked about in the NFC North that are tired of getting punched in the face and the changes that they want to make, the Vikings going from at Donatel to Brian Flores being the most extreme example, but I think that the Packers, you'll see more man coverage from the Packers in third down situations. You'll see heavier boxes from some of these teams that just aren't going to let other teams run on them. the shift that the Browns are going to undertake going from Joe Woods to Jim Schwartz. There will be more man coverage in those situations. They will be playing in heavier boxes. Teams are just going to get tired of getting punched in the face.

And you will see some tweaks around the league that speak to that frustration with what the previous defensive meta was doing. I don't know how, again, how drastic it will be. But I think that we will start trending back in that direction this season. I can already see in the preseason. And again, you don't want to extrapolate too much from it, but you do see teams going more man and also more blitz heavy, which usually tied in together. Not always, but usually.

And also what I think is interesting just going off of it was I'm seeing some protection rules change because teams are, the blitzes have become so, like a lot of the blitzes teams run now, you'd only have to worry about against Rex Ryan, but everyone runs them now. So now it's like, it's what used to be a one-off, maybe once every couple of years you play or extra eye. Now it's like half the league is using these blitzes. So you see some protection rules changing, which I think is very interesting. I can't really kind of confirm what I'm seeing, but I want to watch that one of the season unfolds. But also the other coverage and tied to one man or to man coverage is the one double stuff. What usually was just to be a Patriots tree stuff and

maybe spags, you're seeing everyone run it now. Just these double, hey, everyone's got two weapons on offense now. Okay, we're going to put our best corner. The friggin Packers did this against Justin Jefferson. So it's the you're going to, I think that's going to be even more popularized because I think I've seen maybe a half dozen eight teams do it. And I think it's going to be more than half this year just to tie into what you're saying as well. And I think one of the things is take into account with the man coverage teams is that we've seen the importance of cover two as a change up to man coverage. What the cowboys have done with Dan Quinn. I think you'll potentially see that as a central idea from the Vikings with Flores from Jim, Jim Schwartz used to do a little

bit of this. I think you'll see that cover to dial cranked up just a little bit because you can't play as starkly in aggressive man coverage as you used to just because of how good offenses are. But I think playing more man with a little bit more cover to is a change up than it might have been five years ago

when teams are playing all this man. I think that could potentially be where it settles. It's, like if a baseball analogy is kind of weird, I mean, to use another sport to analyze this is what defense have been doing to offenses the last couple of years and all the soft boxes and everything is they're making you try to take a walk like they're like they're challenging you they're making an eight pitch

count and they're making you be patient what being man coverage is I'm throwing a 102 and you got to hit it and then I'm going to throw a 102 and you got to hit it and I'm going to throw 103 and you got to hit that that's what man coverages and some offenses can some offense can turn on that 102 mile fastball and hit it 450 feet but some can't catch up to that heat. And that's, that is the bet that they're trying to make. Rather than like, hey, what's bet Darren to be patient? No, dare him to hit her a fucking fastball. You want to be the one who's dictating.

I think there are defenses around the league that are tired of being dictated to. And I think that you will see changes as a result of that. Yeah. So I just wanted those things on the record before the season's turn. I love it. I love it. No, that's great. Good show.

That's awesome. You didn't want to save that for after you stopped recording. I just want to let that rip right before we got out of here. That was just, I'm just like, some of these takes, I just couldn't believe I even like, not even just wrote them down, but they actually came out of my mouth. And it's like, yes, sure, why not? The Donald one is fantastic. I just, I'm so glad that you're just sticking to your guns.

Just sticking to my bits. So that's all we got. We have our five teams each for the season. Very excited about following those throughout the course of the year. It's just going to be fun to be invested and have a different sort of stake based on what's going to happen. So looking forward to that and looking forward to our next prediction show that we will have on Thursday. We will do awards. We will do all of that fun stuff coming to your feeds on Thursday.

We do not have a show coming tomorrow. It's Labor Day weekend. We're not going to record on Monday. So no show on Tuesday. Prospects pros will be back with you on Wednesday. And we are here, guys. And also just one quick reminder, be on the lookout for our recap to Chiefs Lions on YouTube following that game. We're going to do Thursday at Recaps again this year.

So we will be doing that after the opening game of week one. So please be on the lookout for that. I will give plenty of reminders between when this runs on Monday and when you will have to listen to that. For now, this is all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. I'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.