The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Bill Barnwell returns to discuss lessons learned from the 2020 NFL season, and Jeff Zriebec joins for a Baltimore Ravens Team Visit

Episode Date: January 6, 2021

Robert welcomes ESPN’s Bill Barnwell to the show to take a look back at the 2020 NFL season and discuss the lessons we’ve learned along the way, and what we should take with us into the future.Plus, The Athletic’s Jeff Zriebec stops by for a Baltimore Ravens Team Visit to discuss how the current version of the team differs from the version they were during the first half of the season, Lamar Jackson settling in after returning from injury, playoff expectations, needs heading into next season, and more.You can get an annual subscription to The Athletic for just $3.99 a month when you visit theathletic.com/footballshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Fun show for you guys today. Jeff Sarribeck is going to be joining us a little bit later, our Ravens writer to do our Baltimore team visit heading into the playoffs. It feels like a team we haven't talked a lot about because they've just been beating up on really bad teams. I feel like it was a good time to kind of revisit the Ravens

as they prepare to play the Titans. Before we do that, though, I wanted to do a wrap-up podcast for the 2020 season. When I was at the Ringer, I used to do a PC. each year that was the lessons we'd learned from the season. I'm not doing that in a written form this year. So I wanted to do it on a podcast. And I felt like the person who could help give us the best perspective on what the 2020

season was and the takeaways we should have from it is my good buddy, Bill Barnwell. Bill, how are you? Always excited to teach some lessons, maize. Thank you for. You've taught me many, many lessons in my time. So I felt like it would be good to kind of give back and allow you to teach everyone else those lessons because I think I'm going to teach you another lesson today. I'm sure you will.

So we each picked three. I'm sure we'll get into some smaller ones as we have this discussion. But why don't you just start us off? If you were just kind of listening off, the first thing you're going to take away and learn from this football season, what would it be? My first lesson for 2020 is that we don't know anywhere near as much about quarterbacks as we think we do.

And I think that's totally fair because mine is very similar to that. So continue. Well, what's yours? Mine is that we have to reevaluate the way we think about, talk about project raw quarterback prospects. Okay, you start. I'm going to build off that, I think. You go first.

Okay, well, so that's mine. And I think that if you look at, obviously, the person who's at the center of that is Josh Allen and what he has been this year. And he hasn't just worked out. He's turned into one of the most dangerous, efficient quarterbacks in the entire NFL, and turn the bills into a legitimate. Super Bowl contender.

I mean, this is not a sneak into the playoffs. Let's see what happens sort of team. And I'll admit that I was wrong about Josh Allen coming into the draft. I'll admit that I made the same amount of jokes that everyone else was making about Josh Allen because we had seen versions of Josh Allen fail so many times before. And we had seen teams and organizations become enamored with people that possess Josh Allen's skill set, these big, strong, athletic, inaccurate quarterbacks. And that's what Josh Allen was in college.

Josh Allen felt like Jake Locker 2.0 in so many ways. And now Josh Allen has become a full-blown superstar. And then that emergence comes on the heels of what Patrick Mahomes was in college and what Patrick Mahomes is now slightly different, but still somebody where you had to look at the ball of clay and imagine something out of it. And I think that Justin Herbert falls into a similar category of quarterback, big, strong-armed guy that required some imagination. And I think that there is more to be learned in that imagination now. And we have to step back and consider what that is in ways that we might not have 10 years ago.

I think there are a lot of reasons for that, but we can get into that. So how does yours piggyback off that? Well, let me ask you about this first, because I think you brought up Jake Locker and I think that's a good quarterback to discuss. It can be Jake Locker. It could be Blake Bordels. And it could be guys in that vein. Does it change the way you view them in hindsight where you sit there and say, hey, if they had ended up in the same place, Josh Allen had ended up where it was a supportive system, an offensive coordinator who played to his strengths, a receiving core that had a, you know, not just a legit number one whiteout because Blake Bortles had that, but a legit, you know, top five, top six receiving core, a very solid offensive line. A complementary group of skill position players.

Everything. Not to take away from Josh Allen, but he has everything you would want for a young quarterback. So obviously not every quarterback prospect is the same, but do you look back at those guys like Jake Locker and Blake Bordos where we're so easy to say, oh, they were busts, they were never going to succeed? And they'll go back and say, well, you know, at least some product of them not succeeding is what they had around them. And if they had the right people around them, they could have been a Josh Allen level success. So I think this is the challenge. It's one, not lumping everyone into the same category, but also at the same time, not going so far the other direction where you're saying, well, all of these things were so specific, how can you recreate that? Because I think if you live on either one of those polls, you're going to miss the next one of these guys.

So I feel like it's not as simple as saying if you dropped Blake Bortles or Jake Locker or whoever onto the bills right now, they would be as successful. because I think there are specific elements of Josh Allen's development that are specific to Josh Allen. I think that the coach that he has has been very good for him, not just from a let's build the offense this way, but from bringing him along, finding specific things about Josh's game that allowed him to succeed. I think that's what Daible's strength has been, is really tapping into who his players are and trying to mold the offense around them in that way. I also think that Josh is, Josh came into the league as somebody was physical profile would probably lend people to talk about him as like oafish and big and like he's probably not a very smart guy. I think that would probably be a conclusion.

He's a big boy. Yes. And he's not that. He is a smart guy and he is a thoughtful guy. And he is somebody whose improvement and development was extremely important to him. And that's something that we will never be able to know without talking to these guys, knowing what their makeup is. You can't just say all, you know, Josh Allen teaches us that raw quarterbacks can succeed.

Josh Allen teaches us that raw quarterbacks who are wired like Josh Allen can succeed. And I think that's important. So I didn't really answer your question. I just think that it's a, you can't go to either extreme because, again, you're going to miss stuff in the middle. And I think that's what matters here. Well, remember with Bortals, right? I mean, he was a guy who came into the league with questionable mechanics. But Jaguar said, okay, we're going to let him sit his entire rookie year.

We're going to have him develop on the side. And then week through, they brought him in. And that did not go great. But then he changed his mechanics and had a better sophomore season, overrated, but a better sophomore season certainly has a full-time starter. And then by like the end of year three, his throwing motion looked like he was a pitcher from the 1920. It's like he was totally out of whack. And I think Josh Allen has made strides on his mechanics. but I think what's different about Allen versus Bortals is that those changes so far have been able to stick.

Like his footwork has gotten much better. When I read about him before the year, there was a play against the Broncos last year where you could see him literally like almost battling his own feet. Like, you know, like taking 15 or 20 steps in a row before making a throw. And that footwork has gotten better. His mechanics have gotten better and they're more consistent. He's more confident with those mechanics. It doesn't feel like he's one bad stretch or one pressure or one game away from suddenly, you know, losing his footwork or losing his ability to make those. And I think in the Steelers game

was kind of the best example of that because he was under a ton of pressure in the first half of that game. And if he was going to revert back to the old Josh Allen who did struggle with his footwork, who did struggle with accuracy, that would have been it. And it didn't happen. Of course, he had Stefan Diggs to help him work his way through that. But, you know, by the end of that game, he was the same Josh Allen who seen for most of 2020, and he was ripping apart one of the league's best defense. So I think that, you know, you can do the work. And I think other quarterbacks have done the work the same way Josh Allen does,

but we're not going to know whether you can actually sustain that under pressure until you actually see them play, you know, hundreds and hundreds of snaps at the NFL level. I agree with that. And I think that the mechanics part is important to understand because you can change the mechanics all you want in laboratory conditions. When the games actually start, you're under duress, things change. And you get anxious, you get panicky. That's when your mechanics start to fall apart. But I also think that it's important to link the mental side and the physical side.

And when you watch Josh Allen this year, the game is clearly much slower for him. He's much more confident in what he's seeing. And I think that helps you maintain changes in your mechanics. He's just in control, whether it's the way that they're using tempo, the way that they're using the cadence at the snap count, the way that he's seeing things on RPO's and stuff like that. I think that his grasp of the game has contributed to his mechanics being sounder. I also think that it's important to look at changes not only in circumstances for these guys and their individual teams, but circumstances in the sport in general. So if you look at the league in 2000, Chase Stewart tweeted this out today, I thought it was really interesting. This is the most efficient passing season in the history of the NFL.

It breaks the record as last year was. So NFL quarterbacks this year averaged about 6.4 adjusted net yards per attempt. averaged. In 2000, seven quarterbacks in the entire league averaged that over the course of the season. In 2000, there were 11 quarterbacks who averaged at least 0.1 EPA per dropback. This year, there were 23 of those guys. So if quarterbacking and offense in general are easier, if it's easier to find a guy who can give you competency at that position, isn't the best way to find a special player,

finding one with special ability, and putting him into a scenario where playing quarterback is easier than it's ever been. I think that's a fair argument. Sure. When you said laboratory, though, I was imagining Josh Allen and Jordan Palmer with like, you know,

Bunsen burners and beakers trying to work through some of the camera. It feels like a Sunday night football graphic just to come to life. It does feel that way. And I think that's true. And I think that we've talked about that before when it, actually, Lamar Jackson is actually a really good example where we talked about, okay, it wasn't just drafting Lamar Jackson, but it was having Greg Roman as a coach. It was drafting Marquise Brown. It was building the tight ends. It was signing Nick Boyle to maybe a bigger deal than you would have expected for a blocking tight end. It was bringing in Mark Andrews. It was committing your scheme and your concept, your concepts offensively to Lamar Jackson skill set. Even to a greater extent, I think, than Louisville did when they had Lamar Jackson. of course we saw the benefits last year he won MVP and i think you know across the league

no matter who your quarterback is i i think that the best teams in the league are taking their offenses and structuring their offenses and structuring their personnel and structuring their scheme to their quarterback skill set and because like you said it's easier to pass than ever before and easier to move the ball and score than ever before it the benefits are more obvious and and easier to see. So I think absolutely, you know, that's a philosophy we're going to have to think about moving forward when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks because, you know, maybe you have the Trevor Lawrence's of the world and they're just going to work anywhere or your Andrew Luck, you know, top tier utterly perfect or close to perfect quarterback prospects.

But for everyone else, that's not going to be the case. And, you know, I think that we put so much effort and so much work into evaluating quarterbacks. But I wrote about this before the 2018 draft. We just don't know. We're just not very good at evaluating quarterbacks before they enter the NFL. And think about the quarterbacks from that draft class. I mean, every year, if you sat there after the season in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and rated those five quarterbacks, you would have had three different rankings each year. You have a different set of rankings each year.

I mean, you're one. You would have said Baker Mayfield was the best prospect from that class. He has not been the best crossover from that class since. Last year, you would have said Lamar Jackson. I think this year you'd probably say Josh Allen, given how he's played this year. So, you know, it's been totally different. And that was a class, by the way, where it went Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, oh, Josh Allen, excuse me, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson, correct? 22 picks then Lamar Jackson.

Right. So, I mean, but that's like, you know, it's pretty maybe league average quarterback, below league average quarterback, a franchise quarterback, guy who barely belongs in football and league MVP. Like, what does I tell you about, you know, you could take a child and just throw, you know, throw crap at the wall and you would get a better order than the NFL actually drafted those guys in? And I think that's really telling. And I think that if we're going to say that, if we're going to admit we don't know anything. And in doing that, essentially admit that the floor on these guys, there isn't one. It's not like this guy has a higher floor than the other. They're probably the same floor.

So if that's the case, if we admit we don't know anything, I think it makes sense to take chances. on the guys who you know have the highest ceiling. And that probably is going to lead to some mistakes, but I do think that it's worked out extremely well here over the last five years. It has. And now let me get this back to the lesson I was going to take, because you brought up the idea of developing quarterbacks and the raw quarterbacks we don't know.

And that's true. I absolutely agree with that. I think in 2020, we saw a clear example that we don't know anything about quarterbacks who aren't raw, guys who are already in the NFL. We don't know anything. about them. I mean, last year, if I had told you in August, let alone last, let alone in 2019, if I had told you literally in August that the following things were going to happen. Carson Wentz was going to look at the replacement level quarterback and get benched.

Aaron Rogers. Worse than replacement level quarterback. Carson Lynch would be one of would be a Sam Darnold level quarterback in Philadelphia and would be asking for trade. He was as bad as Nick Foles was this year. I think Nick Foles was better than Carson Wendz this year. Let's be fair. I think it was pretty close. Anyway, go ahead.

Aaron Rogers, a guy who had been declining for five years, would be League MVP. I don't know. I did you, you see your MVP pick? I forget. He is my MVP pick, yes. Okay, he's also my MVP pick. So Aaron Rogers, a guy who, it looked like he was going to be replaced as early as the 2021 season by Jordan Love is the league MVP.

Russell Wilson, a guy who was an MVP candidate in the first half of the season, was not hitting any of his deep passes in the second half of the year. Ryan Tannahill, a guy who had been at this level for a half season with Tennessee, a little over a half season with Tennessee, not only stayed at that level this year, but actually was even a little better maybe in 2020 and then he was in 2019. That is more surprising to me than Aaron Rogers winning MVP. But not as surprising as Carson Wentz being, you know, a third string quarterback. No, probably not. But these are guys who we had firm opinions on it. I guess even for Tannily, you could say in 2019, right?

I mean, the entire league evaluated Tannahill and said, we're not willing to give up more than a fourth-round pick for him. Miami had to eat $5 million just to get a fourth-round pick from Tennessee via trades. They paid $2 million and a fourth-round pick to get Tannahill. And he was a top-10 quarterback. It was a top-10 quarterback again this year. You know, these are guys who we had firmly established opinions on based on more than a thousand pass attempts, even closer to 2,000 for guys like Wentz and Tannahill in one situation. and then neither seeing them in a different situation or in the case of Winston Rogers, seeing them basically in the same situation,

their performance was not just a little different. It wasn't just an off year or a career. It was a drastically, drastically different performance from what our expectations were. And I think that, you know, maybe the context around quarterbacks is changing quicker than we, you know, are used to. Maybe we're seeing smarter coaches who are more effective passing. maybe because you're passing the ball more frequently. You know, that's sort of the impact of a quarterback being really good or really bad is more significant. But I don't know that we know anything about quarterbacks anymore and how they're going to perform.

And I think that our confidence, what we know about these guys, just is not warranted given the broader evidence we have. I totally agree. And I wrote about this midway through the year or so about Tannehill. And I think the best lesson we can learn from what's happened with Ryan Tannahill is there are other Ryan Tannahills. There are other guys out there that can be gotten as tarnished assets and resurrected in the right circumstances. And that is the exact conversation that is going to be had around Sam Darnold in the coming months. Because when you look at what changes in a quarterback when his surroundings change and what can potentially change, there is a team that is going to talk itself into Sam Darnold doing the same thing.

And I think that's reasonable because of how little we know about quarterbacks, even when they have a significant track record that they've shown to us. Absolutely. And I think that's going to color the way that some of the smarter teams in the league view these quarterbacks. You know, like with the Eagles, for example, I mean, I don't know what they're going to do. I've written about it. Certainly everything is on the table. They could trade Carson Wentz.

They could go with Carson Wentches or starter in 2021. They could draft a quarterback with the sixth overall pick. That's not out of the question. And I wonder if there are going to be teams who, and I've written about this before as well, might sit there and say, hey, we can't be confident about Carson Wentz or about Jared Goff being a $30 million a year player. And we're just going to build the best possible infrastructure around those quarterbacks and just shop in the bargain bin, the same way we're.

do with running backs. We're going to get a guy who is athletic, a guy who can make throws, and just assume that because we have the right coaching and the right talent, that we're going to be okay. I think that's a really interesting thought. And you and I have talked about this and written about this over the last couple of years a lot. And the reasons that doesn't happen, the reasons why it might be smart. It's scary. It's really scary. It is the fear of the unknown is part of it. And I also think you risk pissing off your locker room. Because look at the way that some of the Eagles guys Miles Sanders today responded to the notion that their coach wasn't doing everything they could possibly do for them to win. Or even what J.J. Watts said to Deshawn Watson when they were walking off the field in Week 17, the notion that we wasted one of your years.

I'm sorry about this. That is a hard thing for players to swallow. And if you know you can win with a guy like Jared Gough, like the Rams could, moving on and potentially finding a guy who's not as good as Jared Gough has a lot of emotional risks. within your building. And I think that's part of the reason teams don't do it. I also feel like there are a couple different things to kind of consider with this. One, the idea that of playing quarterback is easier than it's ever been. And if infrastructure matters this much, you can just swap guys out.

That's probably fair. And I think a lot of that infrastructure is based in play action and this Kubiak, Shanahan type of offense that we've seen guys succeed in, whether it's Aaron Rogers, Ryan Tannahill, Baker Mayfield, at all levels of the spectrum. And I think it's important to acknowledge those levels because it is still really valuable, even if the baseline is higher to have one of the really good guys. Because that type of infrastructure can make Baker Mayfield a good quarterback, Ryan Tannahill a great quarterback, and Aaron Rogers is a transcendent quarterback. So finding one of those guys is still really important, even if we acknowledge that the infrastructure can take lesser guys to a tolerable level. But like you said, you brought it stuff earlier, the floor.

For those average guys, it's a lot higher than it was 20 years ago. The floor for those guys 20 years ago was a pass a rating of like 85. And you were ecstatic if they posted a quarterback rate or passed a rating of 100. And now the floor for those guys is pretty much 100. So you're in a totally different situation where you can move the ball, even if you don't have those guys. And we're seeing with Jared Gough now, you know, I don't know that locker room is more excited about John Wofford than Jared Gough. But there are holes in that team that would not be there. if the Rams weren't spending as much as they are on Jared Gough.

The Eagles are a team that, you know, is running out, even before this week, replacement-level players at linebacker and at safety. Seems to be on purpose, though. But this week was on purpose, apparently, according to... No, I think the linebacker thing is on purpose. I think they purposely devalue that position, but I understand your point, and I think that you're right. Right, but they can't even go out and get like a Nigel Bradham, is what I'm saying. They have literal guys making the minimum playing meaningful linebacker.

snaps for them. And that's not all Carson Wentz, but some of it is the fact that they're paying Carson Wentz a significant sum of money. So I do feel like, you know, there are teams who will be happy and say, okay, well, you know, you don't want to run the risk of upsetting your locker room, but I don't know that the Rams locker room is going to be thrilled if they, if they, you know, when they missed the playoffs last year, when they had Jared Gough as their quarterback and he wasn't playing very well. Or, you know, those guys in the middle tier, if the Browns loose in the first round of the playoffs, they're not going to sit there and say,

okay, well, at least we have Baker Mayfield. We're set for the next decade. They're going to sit there and say, okay, are we really getting the most out of our, you know, out of Nick Chubb's years,

out of Joel Botonio's years, out of Wyatt Teller's years, when we have Baker Mayfield at quarterback. So, you know, I think we've sort of put running backs on a pedestal for a long time, and that's changed. I wonder if we're going to put quarterbacks

or take quarterbacks off of that same pedestal, unless you have one of those, Mahomes or Deshaun Watson types. I think it's more important not to take them off the pedestal necessarily, but understand where the tiers are and how those tiers are important. And if you fall below tier one, if you are in that large middle ground of quarterbacks, that those guys are mostly interchangeable. I think that is the most important realization.

Not a great quarterback doesn't matter, but if you don't have a great quarterback, all quarterbacks are the same. I think that is the most important realization. So get Aaron Rogers or Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. Check. Football is as much as football changes, it's always going to stay the same, essentially, is the lesson there. All right. What is your next one here? Okay. This one is to anger every coach. I'm assuming many of them listening to this podcast right now. May's OTAs and the preseason do not need to exist. J.C. Tredder, the president of the NFLPA said this recently. He is 100 percent.

correct. This was like the argument coaches had for decades against players having less practice time, against less preseason games. The play was going to be sloppy. Fans were going to be upset, and players were not going to develop at the rate that coaches wanted them to. And we've seen in the most recent CBA negotiation before this one, a dramatic decline in the number of, I believe, padded practices during the preseason, if I'm not mistaken. But a decline in practices for sure. And then this year, you know, they ripped off the band-aid because of the pandemic. There were no mini-camp, no pre-season. Obviously, training camps still existed, but dramatically reduced practice time. And Mays, I know that you are paying close attention. I know that, like,

Troy Aitman will complain about the standard of tackling in the NFL or whatever. Is football appreciably different this year in terms of the on-field product than it's been in years past to you? No. But I also think it's a very important. important to acknowledge some of the reasons why that might be the case. Why is that the case? Oh, I think the league made a conscious effort to tweak the rules to make sure that this season was visually palatable. Oh, you think that they decided to, as Keffin Cepard is noted for us to ESPN, just

stop calling offensive holding altogether? Stop calling offensive holding and call a lot of defensive, either whether it's illegal contact or past interference. If that's going to be the going version of these rules in the future, let's do it. And honestly, I'm fine with that. Because the only people that are going to be pissed off about that are defensive linemen and defensive players. If that is the only group that we're upsetting by keeping this version of the rules intact,

then I think do away with OTAs, keep everything with this calibration. Let's roll. I totally agree with you. Does that change the way you approach building a football team then? I've thought about this a lot. And I've talked to some offensive play callers about it and whether they had considered if holding and a lack of holding penalties was changing the way they were calling plays

or changing the way they structure plays. The answer I'd gotten from a few different people was no. But I think the more accurate answer might be not yet. Because if that sustains and it really is going to be a part of football moving forward, I think it has to be a consideration. The one area that I think I've thought about it the most is what types of rushers are going to be effective and valuable in the league.

are more speed to power guys that are moving through offensive linemen going to be as dangerous if they can get held consistently. And I don't know the answer to that. So I think that's the one area I'm watching it. But for right now, I think it can affect the game, but I think it's not going to be in a negative way. I'm totally fine with this umbrella of rules continuing to exist. Are we worried about upsetting Aaron Donald and the impact of what that might do to...

It doesn't matter if Aaron Donald gets held. So that's fine. That's a mood point. I didn't realize. Yeah, it doesn't matter. You can do whatever you want to him. Holding has no impact on Aaron Donald. So him and Miles Garrett are going to be just fine either way.

T.J. Watt does get held like every other play, though, but he's still going to be maybe defensive player of the year. So again, I think it's only going to have such a big impact. All right. I totally agree with you. I have a question for you then. Okay.

So if you were J.C. Treter and you were negotiating for your players, would you say, hey, we don't want any more pre-season, any more OTAs? Or what's the balance there for you that you think makes the most sense? No OTAs, absolutely, or only virtual at least. We don't have to come back to wherever we are in the spring. I think that's silly and no longer should have to happen. Preseason games, I would want to talk to people at the PA, him or whoever, about the way they think it affects people down the pecking war.

Right. That's what I was going to say. And I don't know the answer to that. That's a conversation I'd have to have with somebody. that would be the only argument in favor to me is if it give, because the PA is really conscious of this stuff, I think. You know, I remember talking to somebody there

before the CBA negotiations happened just about stuff like the franchise tag and everything else. And not, or taking away the franchise tag was a non-starter to them because it doesn't affect enough players. Right. So with stuff like this,

of course the veterans are fine without the preseason. But I think they're going to do a good job or at least a thorough job evaluating what no preseason would mean for a special team's gunner that needs those snaps in public in order to get signed somewhere off a practice squad. That's the only consideration that really matters to me. And we've seen over the course of the last decade that players on rookie contracts

are making up a larger portion of the rosters right now. And so, you know, I think number one, that's going to be more significant if we get rid of the preseason because there won't be an opportunity for some of the veterans, some of the lower level veterans who are holding on to jobs to prove that they're worth more than, you know, a guy on a rookie contract because, you know, I feel like teams will just resort more to the money element of things than anything else. All right. Speaking of the money element of things, my second lesson here is that there is significant value

in biting the bullet for at least one year with your salary cap in order to hit the reset button hard. Ooh, okay. And I think that there are a lot of examples of that this year. I think two really good ones, invisible ones, are obviously the dolphins after what they did last season. But also, this is still a stage of that Browns rebuild that we watched a couple years ago. And another team in that conversation is the Bills. If you look at one-year dips or one-year jumps for those teams in dead money and purging their rosters,

the Browns had $80 million combined in 2016 and 2017. They did it over multiple years, and I think we could have a real conversation about how prudent that is. But the bills had $70 million in dead money in 2018. The Dolphins had $68 million in dead money in 2019. And I think being willing to endure that sort of season and to say we are starting over

has really benefited those franchises. And I think that if you have the right shepherd of this sort of rebuilding plan, I don't know how much tanking on purpose and losing a bunch of games and being at the top of the draft is the most important thing. I think that we could argue about that. But I do think that committing to a clean slate is really important for setting yourself up well for the future. And I think the bills honestly are the perfect example of that. In 2017, when they made the playoffs, it would have been easy to say, look, we made the playoffs.

We can build on this. And instead, there was like, absolutely not. We are tearing this thing down and we are starting over when Brandon Bean comes in. And what they have done with that blank slate is to me a really good roadmap for other franchises. I think the Dolphins have done a good job as well. But I do think that if you're the Jets of the Jags and you just went through that season of purging your entire roster and you now have that blank slate, you now have examples of how to do it well. And I think that that overall plan for a team like the Lions who is now kind of going to face a similar sort of decision, I think going that direction would serve them well the same way it serves some of these other teams.

I don't agree with this at all. Okay, interesting. Go ahead. Okay, here's why. Number one, 2017 bills. They got to the playoffs by accident. They were not expecting to make it to the postseason. They benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman in November because they wanted to evaluate the Peterman.

And they managed to back into the playoffs, but that was not the plan that year. They were rebuilding that year. And that's great. It gave them more headway. to make the moves they wanted to make in 2018 and sort of have more time to do what they wanted to do. But the thing that concerns me about following the bills model is that the bills are built so much through free agency.

There are so many signings they made in free agency. And because the bills have a great coaching staff, because they've drafted extremely well, those signings have worked. They spent a lot on mid-tier signings. It reminds me a lot of a team we used to talk about quite a bit. when we would podcast together at Grantland, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who would make a lot of these mid-tier signings. For the Bills, almost every one of those signings have worked out.

For the Jaguars, almost every one of those signings did not work out. Obviously, eventually, they drafted well enough and signed guys like Callais Campbell and sort of bigger ticket guys and did find a very successful season. For the Bills, I mean, so many of their mid-tier signings are guys who were okay somewhere else and have looked better in Buffalo, your Colby's, your Jordan Porees, um, even someone like a John Brown is another example of one of those mid-tier guys.

You know, they've done a lot of that in the defense or excuse me up in the front seven, especially this year. Yeah, Jordan Philips was the guy I was thinking of. But I think, here's my thing though. I think that the Jags signed a lot of big ticket guys. And I don't, I feel like if you spread out that free agent money that you have,

I think the dolphins are a good example of this. The Kyle Van Nuoy contract to me is a little egregious. But I think the smartest ways they handed out money this off season were to guys like Emmanuel Agba and Shaq Lawson, those mid-tier free agents. I talked to Brandon Bean about this in the past, about how with that free agent money, they were patient and they really used it to plug holes in order to make sure that their draft strategy wasn't one board of desperation, where I don't have to draft this guy because we need somebody in that spot. And I think that's a smart way to think about free agency.

So I'm actually okay with building in free agency if it's the middle. part of your roster in the way that it has been for the bills and in some ways is for the dolphins right now. Can I read you some of the Jaguars you're forgetting about here? I'm not talking about like the Cleas Campbells of the world. That's a great move. I love Cleas Campbell. I have no issue with anyone signing Cleas Campbell, especially a few years ago for any amount

of money. I would even talk about like Jared Odrick and like that entire group of guys? Dan Scuda, Toby Gerhardt. Like, I think there is logic to what you're saying. but at some point you have to rely on your drafting, whether it's going to work out or not. You have to trust that you don't need to sign Chris Ivory and Toby Gerhardt to solve your running.

I'm not signing any free agent running backs in this plan. That's what I mean. When I said that the shepherd of this has to be the right kind of people, I think that as long as you have the right coach and the right people in place, this is an okay way to do it. Spending money on free agent running backs is not the right shepherd for this plan.

Leave the running backs aside. There are still other, there's a dozen players. Red Bryant. Did I say Dan Scuda? Dan Scuda. You did say Dan Scuda. You know, Juno Hayes is signing, you know, just guys like where Chris Clemens.

Chris Clemens is a good player. Nothing wrong with Chris Clemens. But let's say 33, 32 year old pass rusher you're assigning to be the lead pass rusher on your defense. That's just not a smart way to go about things. And I think it worked for the bills, but I would be hesitant to follow. that strategy if I'm going to be. I think the idea of let's work in the middle class of free agency is smart. I think you can get that to work, but I think the bills are the exception as opposed to the rule. Maybe I'm wrong. We'll see in the years to come. I think other teams will try and follow

the bill strategy. But I have seen other teams go down that path unsuccessfully in years past. The Giants, by the way, are another team who did this as well. I think as long as you're keeping those deals at a relative minimum and you're using it to build the middle part and the meat of your roster rather than the high end of your roster, I'm okay with it. And I think that you're right that the bills have executed to perfection. But I still think it's a better path forward to some of these teams who have been toiling in the middle of the league like a Detroit. But the Lions, for example, okay? If you're the Lions right now and you look at your roster and you say, well, if we kept Matthew Stafford, he's better than anybody we're going to have anyway. You know,

some of these guys are better than the alternatives. I think that's how you talk yourself into this treadmill of irrelevance. And I think it's important to try to get yourself off of that and giving yourself a clean slate, even if it doesn't mean getting to the top of the draft to draft someone. I'm just talking about having room to work financially and just having a canvas on which to paint your version of a franchise, I think has been valuable for teams over the last three to four years. Mays, look at the Lions roster right now, the guys who are on there.

Let's leave Trey Flowers aside because Trey Flowers is a big money deal, but Desmond Truffant, Hal Vaitai, Marvin Jones, Justin Coleman, Jamie Collins, Danny Amandola. But like, let's say, there's the, okay, maybe this is simplifying it too much. It's just saying they picked the wrong guys, but they picked the wrong guys. And they picked the wrong guy in large part because they picked the wrong guy at the top. That's my point, though. My point is not that following the bill strategy is not going out and signing a bunch of free agents or signing the, because you don't know who the right free agents are. The point is, if you have the right guys at the top and the bills have that,

and John McDurban and Brandon Bean, you're going to get the other stuff right because the players you sign are going to be better once you bring them into your organization. Whereas with the Lions, because they had Matt Patricia as their head coach, all the guys they brought in, even if they had success elsewhere, including in New England, got worse the moment they arrived in Detroit because their coach sucked. I know, but I think it's, I really do think it is, there's more to it. Also, you need the right coach. I think that there is a way to say, I want to start over with my vision for this rather than going halfway on someone else's and mine.

Also, one more thing for you, and let's move on to the next point. How differently do we think about the bills if Antonio Brown agrees to get traded to the bills that night a couple years ago? No, though not that differently. I mean, I think it's a version of the Stefan Diggs trade. But do they make the Stefan Diggs trade, then? Maybe not. But I think that it's the same idea. where you're getting a true number one receiver that's available for reasons that aren't in their control.

I think they're very similar moves. I just think it's like, like, I think they've done an incredible job in Buffalo. I think they have been the best organization of football over the last four years in terms of how they've built this roster. But it's always funny how little things might go slightly differently. And then suddenly our perception might be changed about how we view the moves that they make. But anyway, what's your next one? My next one is, I'm going to say, the floor I have learned this year, Mays, for a great quarterback.

It's not seven wins. And the reason why I say seven wins is I think about those Drew Bree's teams when the Saints were in Capel and they had like the worst defense in the history of football two out of three years. Those teams went seven to nine. So my idea is now in the past happy era when you have a true, absolute, no doubt, superstar franchise quarterback, still playing at a star level. You cannot win fewer than seven games. It's just impossible.

Your quarterback's going to back you into too many wins somehow. The Houston Texans proved that I was wrong. The Houston Texans somehow, with the Sean Watson playing out of his mind for the vast majority of this season, in one of the most past happy offenses in football after Bill O'Brien got fired, they won four games. Do you think this is a corollary of what we were talking about before, where because everyone has a competent quarterback having a really good quarterback, the floor is only so high. Do you think those are connected in any way? I think it's a little connected base, but they also lost to Mitch Trubisky and Brandon Allen in the last month of the season. Well, Mitch Trubisky is playing like a superstar

in the second half of the season, so that doesn't really apply. Okay, so Brandon, I'll leave Mitchell Trubisky aside then. Brandon Allen, they lost two in a game where the other- wasn't serious. The other team scored 37 points. The Bengals. It's, I, I think it's a, it really resets the idea that, like, you can never be safe. I mean, the teams I said this year before the year who were going to decline were the Texans, the Packers, the Seahawks, and the Saints. Because the numbers all said, those teams were likely to decline. Now, the Saints declined by a game.

I don't think they're that much different. They just happened to be a little less lucky this year than they were a year ago and lost Drew Brees for a little bit of time as well. But the Packers and Seahawks got the climb. The Packers got an MVP performance for me. MVP performance from Aaron Rogers. The Seahawks had a first half MVP performance from Russell Wilson. And you could sit here and say, hey, well, you shouldn't say great teams are going to decline

because they have a quarterback. And when you have that quarterback, you're going to be in every game. We're going to have a shot to win every game with the Texans. You know, like they are the proof that you can sell out. You can trade multiple first round picks. You can build an expensive offensive offensive line around your quarterback. You can, you know, they don't have, Dr. Hopkins, but they have a pretty good receiving core when everyone's healthy and Will Fuller and Branden and Doug.

man, Randall Cobb is a $10 million cap hit next year. They spent on that receiving core. I'm, I don't know if you know this. I was not a fan of the Randall Cobb signing base. It's, it is the, it is the, I'm not trying to attack Randall Cobb when I say this stuff, because I want to make that clear. It is the most misguided decision that a team made in free agency this year, in my opinion. Because they had Kiki QT on the roster as a slot receiver for nothing, for nothing. And they gave Randall Cobb a contract that is going to have an. $11 million cap hit next year and $10 million in dead money. It was like a one-year deal. They paid him 10 times as much money as Kiki QT is set to make next year. And QT had as many

yards and catches in eight games as Randall Cobb had in 10. That is the most, that is the perfect explanation for how to screw up in free agency and not understand what you should be going after. Can I say two things? Number one, I can't believe I'm about to defend Bill O'Brien here. but Kiki Kiki Kuti did fumble four times, as opposed to Randall Cobb zero fumbles. That's fine. It's totally fine. I will take you for a tenth of the price, I'm cool with the fumbles. I appreciate that. You're willing to accept four fumbles a year for $10 million. It's about $2 million a fumble. I'm good with that. I would say the Eric Murray signing was worse.

Yeah, that's fair. It's fair. After three weeks, Bill O'Brien, one of the signeril Thomas to replace. Eric Murray and his own players had to say, no, don't sign Earl Thomas. That feels like so long ago. And yet it was only a few months ago. I know. To get back to the next. In a nutshell.

I mean, I think it's sort of, you know, it gets back to the first point about the idea of, you know, once you have that quarterback, you can feel secure. Deshaun Watson, I think, is a tier one quarterback to use Mike Sandos tiers. He's not even in the Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, second tier. I'm, you know, at least before the year, Carson, which was in tier two. But D'Shawn is a tier one transcendent, you know, you give up everything you have to get that guy kind of quarterback. And that still wasn't enough to win more than four games. So I think it's sort of, again, thinks about how you're building a team, how you're building

a roster, and how the quarterback just does not guarantee you anything. Even, you know, maybe Patrick Burhomst does. Maybe he's just on a different tier from everyone else. but I do think that we're getting at the point now where we have to think more holistically about how we're building a roster and not just saying, okay, let's solid to get a quarterback and he'll figure everything else out because we've seen now. Not only can you be a mediocre team with that kind of quarterback, you can be one of the worst teams in football. You can give away the third overall pick because you traded it away. When they did it the first time, when they traded the two first rounders to the Browns and ended up giving the fourth overall pick to the Browns the following year, which was Denzel Ward, who's a fantastic cornerback, they at least got to Sean Watson. that was okay.

And at least he got hurt that year. At least there was an explanation for why it happened. Yes. They got Laramie Tunsell, who was a good left tackle, maybe even very good left tackle, who's getting paid millions of dollars. Oh, actually, no, before the running Stanley did it, it was getting paid millions of dollars more than anybody else's football. Who has been good?

I mean, he loved the league and penalties last year. He's, what, second team all pro for you, I thought? Larry Tunsell? Yeah. Oh, I think he's fantastic. I think he's a really, really good player. He was first team all pro for me. Let's say he's a top five left tackle.

Is that fair to say? I think top four, yes. I think it's a four man race. Okay. You say top four left tackle. And that did nothing. The show wants to still getting hit a ton, still getting pressure at a ton. As good as Larry Retonso is, it has not changed that roster in the slightest.

And now, because they were so aggressive to make that trade, because they weren't willing to make any other choices left tackle, because they were insisting until a week beforehand that Matt Khalil was going to be their starting left tackle. and they had to trade over the odds to make that deal with the dolphins, they're giving up the third overall pick in this year's draft, which is incredible. For Sean Watson, you'd make that trade. For Laramie Tunsell, as good as he is, you would never make that trade. It's brutal. I was thinking about it today, and I think it makes you not reconsider the Seahawks trade for

Jamal Adams, but makes you reconsider what it could look like next year if something's go wrong and they're happy to give away a top 10 pick. I don't think they will. I think the Seahks are a good organization and all that. But I totally agree with you. It makes you reconsider what the floor is and what that means for going all in for a better, lack of a better term. All right. My last one here, I think that what Brandon Staley has done with the Rams and piggybacking off other things that have happened is an indication that that structure of defense and going with that too high system has a lot of merit and should influence defensive.

innovation going into the future. I don't agree with this one either, but please continue. That's fine. And it's the reason for it is that I think when one thing happens and you see one thing go well and teams chase it, there are a lot of mistakes made because it can be a fluke. I think what Brandon Staley has done in L.A. is not just proof that what Brandon Staley is doing is working, but proof that what Vic Fangio has done for the last five years is smart and replicable.

I remember reading last year, John Kime wrote something on ESPN about Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVeigh, and Matt Lefleur. And he asked all of them a bunch of questions. And one of them was who is the hardest defensive coordinator in the league to go against? And every single one of them said Vic Fangio. And it was so interesting to me when I kind of looked at the whole thing that there was no one in the NFL doing the things Vic Fangio was doing. And I think that's a comment about the state of defensive innovation in the league, which we can get to in a second. But watching Brandon Staley not, you know, sort of copy a lot of the things McHanjo's doing,

just starting in two high safeties. If you look at the numbers, it's really drastic. I mean, they're both using middle of the field open, two high safety looks on more than 80% of plays. No one else in the league is above 60. And the Rams are using a light box on 83% of plays. And the Broncos are at 78. No one else is above 72.

So it's really, they're an outwire. That is what being different looks like. if you see it visually. And I think that the ways that Vic Vanjo made it hard for teams and the reasons that that system makes it hard, whether that's being less predictable in your coverage is, whether it's being more effective against crossing routes because your safeties are playing from depth, all of that stuff. I think that has merit.

And I think that looking to that system and trying to use it in different ways could be a way for teams to find better defense than they are right now. I really do think that there is something to the values and the benefits of running that type of defense. I didn't realize I was here to plug people's written content, but apparently if you want to read more about Brandon Staley's defensive philosophy and some of the reasons he does the things he does, I don't remember who, but someone at the athletic work and article about it last week. It was pretty good. I mean, I'm a fan of many athletic articles. This was one of the better ones, but I don't remember who wrote it. Me neither.

It's nobody good. I can tell you that. I would check that. A lot of typos in that article. No. It was a great article. And I think it's really true that the league is on defense is sort of lagging behind offenses. I mean, if I asked you to before the year, not you because you know too much about football,

but if I asked a random person, hey, name the top five offensive minds in the NFL, they'd have five or ten names right out. It would be Shanahan, McFay, Joe Brady. Like, you'd have names ready. If I'd ask the same person to name the top five defensive minds, the top of the top of most defensive innovators in football, they'd have to think for a while. I don't know if they'd have the names. And it's not to say that they're not smart, this hypothetical person I just invented, but, you know, we just don't think about defensive being innovative in the same way we think about

offenses. We don't think about them being creative in the same way we think about offenses. And I think there are people being creative on defense, but we're not inclined to think about it that way. And I agree with you from that perspective. And I think that it's true that I think playing with two split safeties, playing two high looks, is generally going to be smarter because of where the game is going. We're throwing the ball more. So you don't need that eighth guy in the boxes frequently. One of the teams that is going in a different direction right now is one of the hotter coaching candidates out there, which is Bad Iber Fluse in Indianapolis, where they played a lot of Tampa 2 and a lot of too high safety looks over the past two years. And this

year, after Malik Hooker got hurt, they brought in Julian Blackman, who's been awesome for them as a rookie safety. They're playing a ton of single high looks right now. And part of that is because they're winning games and because they're not in a situation. I guess not that's that. I mean, I think they just philosophically, it looks like they, because they have the personnel to do it with Blackman, are playing more single high looks. And I think the reason why I disagree here is not that I think it's not true right now. I think it is. But I think that the league is going to naturally evolve. Of course. I think what we're seeing coming out of college now to get back to Josh Allen, and to get back to Lamar Jackson are more quarterbacks who are mobile, more quarterbacks who are

going to threaten teams as a runner in the box. We're going to see teams where we're comfortable letting those quarterbacks run the ball. And so I think that as teams play more split safety coverages and they get that guy out of the box, the safety out of the box, I think we're going to see quarterbacks who run the ball. And when quarterbacks run the ball, it's more efficient than when running backs run the ball. They pick up bigger chunks of yarders. They are more threatening. it's closer to your typical pass play than is your typical run play. And so I think because we're going to see so many mobile quarterbacks continue to come out of college football, I think we're going to see defenses have to respond to that by getting that ace man back in the box,

not playing split safety. I totally disagree. College has played two split safety looks in large part because of the way that they have to defend RPO's. You can absolutely defend the run. I'm not saying RPO's. I'm saying, and quarterback run. You can absolutely defend quarterback runs. Of course you can.

The Rams had the most effective run defense in the NFL this season by playing out of light boxes. Okay, can I tell you what the difference is between the Rams and light boxes and other teams in light boxes? They have Aaron Donald. It doesn't, but that's... Oh, it does matter. It matters, but it goes beyond that. I think you can steal back enough numbers to play this way. I would much rather lose with the quarterback beating me on the quarterback power runs than 20-yard pass plays.

I agree. And that's why I think that this is the way to structure. And beyond just the schematic parts of this, I think the innovative part of this is another thing to talk about. Because defense has not been the incubator for innovation that offense has been. And I think that we look for the next defensive coach

or we look for solutions on the defensive side of the ball in the wrong places. If you look at the defensive coordinators in the league right now, there are 30 of them because there are two teams that their head coaches their defensive play call with Belichick and Brable, okay? 13 of the 30 are former head. coaches that have been fired.

Almost half. Sometimes that works. Steve Spagnolo has been great. Jack Del Rio has been really good for Washington. Other times, it does not work out very well. The average age right now of the 30 defensive coordinators in the league is 54 years old. 19 of them will be 55 or older by the end of 2021. I just think we're looking in the wrong places for answers on defense.

I think the Raiders, after the season that they're. had saying Gus Bradley is the answer to our problems is the exact wrong way to think about finding the next defensive coach that can make your defense great. I think that teams look at their next defensive coordinator as a way to be serviceable and a way to be fine rather than a way to try to push things in the way that the Rams did with Brandon Staley. And I think that's wrong. That I agree with you on. I will say that I think that it was questionable. I mean, there are a lot of people skeptical of Shum McVefe for saying, hey, we're going to let Wade Phillips leave and we're going to replace him with a guy who most people haven't heard of.

And I mean, I am not the person to disrespect Wade Phillips. Wade Phillips is a great defensive coach. I think he is the exception to many rules when it comes to older coaches. But Brandon Staley has improved the Rams defense. Now, Jalen Ramsey being there for a full season helps and other things to come into play. But that is their Rams defense that was in transition. They lost a bunch of players from last year. And they're getting the most out of the players they have.

And so they have the best defense in the NFL. Right, right. And so I think it is smart to be more aggressive when it comes to hiring coaches on defense who you're not expecting. And I think the classic one that nobody ever looks for when it comes to a dream head coach at Kansas is Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin was a secondary coach for the vast majority of his career. I think he had one year as a DC before he got hired as a head coach. And yet how many teams are really going out and hiring young, you know, defensive positional coaches to be in more meaningful roles? Very few.

And so I think that is probably an untapped and valuable place to go when it comes to hiring some of these coordinators and even some of these head coaches. The idea that we're going to have trying to think of the right example, is there a defensive head coach that's gotten fired in this cycle? Or is it all offensive head coaches? I believe it's all offensive coaches. Matt Patricia. Matt Patricia. That was so long ago. It is a crime that Matt Patricia is likely going to get a defensive coordinator job before a guy like Chris Hewitt, who is the secondary coach and passing him.

coordinator in Baltimore is going to get one. That to me is the most backwards way to think about this possible. And I think that's one of the reasons that defense is lacking behind offense league-wide. This is unfair because I brought up Chris Hewitt as a head coach in Canada to stay on Twitter. And you just brought him up as, oh, well, someone should hire him as a coordinator. Not fair. I brought him up first. It's my idea. I'm so sorry. He was one of those guys. I remember last year so vividly, I was in their facility. And I was doing a story on their defensive structure and how much they blitz. And I asked him three or four questions about it.

And I remember afterward talking to one of their staffers and just being like, that's an impressive guy. And they're just like, yeah, man, we know. And it's just, it's amazing to me that guys like that aren't getting better opportunities. It just makes so much sense to seek out somebody like that.

And instead, we're trotting out the same old guys. So I do think the too high structure thing is part of it because I do think that teams would be well served to try to build their defense that way. But I also think the Staley thing is as much a lesson about. about the places we look for coaches. All right, buddy. We got to get out of here.

Jeff is going to come on here in a second. I really appreciate it. I always do. I thank you for pushing back on some of my ideas, which I should have anticipated that you do. So thank you very much. It's always good to talk to you. I'm sure we'll talk to you again.

Sounds great. All right, it's time for this week's team visit. I'm thrilled to welcome our Ravens writer, Jeff's a reback to the show. Jeff, how are you doing? Good. How are you, Robert? I'm doing really well. I wanted to talk about the Ravens.

I felt like they were the perfect team to do this week because when the playoffs get here, I always like to kind of step back and do a little bit of a reset, not only about my expectations for teams, but where they sit. Are they trending upward? Who's hurt? Who's not? And this is the team, I feel like that's more valuable with than anyone else. Because in the middle part of the season,

I think it was easy to write the Ravens off. Their offense was struggling. Lamar Jackson didn't look like the guy he was last year. They felt like they had lagged behind some of the other contenders in the league. Well, that has changed a little bit. Over the last six weeks or so, they are on O'Don. just a rocket ride to the top of the league. They lead the NFL in point differential.

They're seventh in DVOA right now, and their offense has been so much better in the second half of the year. I know they played bad teams, but I still think it's important to kind of recalibrate our expectations for what this Ravens team is in this moment. So if you're looking at that stretch, essentially the second half of the season and after Lamar Jackson got back, what would you say is the biggest difference between this version of this Ravens team

and one we might have seen in like week eight? Well, I think it all starts with Lamar Jackson, first of all. He's never admitted it. He claims that none of that outside stuff, expectations, attention. None of that stuff bothers him. But early in the year, honestly, Robert, it looked like he was playing with the weight of the world on his shoulders. It looked like he was trying to win the MVP award every time he dropped back for a throw. And I just think that they were trying to be something that they really weren't. They were trying to evolve as an offense. and show that they could beat teams through the air when there were some, you know, key elements missing from last year's team, mainly, you know, Marshall Yonda. I mean, they really missed Yonda. Their offensive line was kind of, you know, in flux earlier in the season. And then they lost, you know, all pro Ronnie Stanley and left tackle. And then tight end Nick Boyle went down and he's so key.

So I think it's taking them a while to kind of get back to this identity and to find a way to play in that manner while making up for kind of some of the personnel losses. You know, the offensive line is settled. Jackson has been much more aggressive with his legs. He's not running any more than he was in the first half, really. It's just kind of how he's running. You know, he's not forcing the ball when he drops back. If he doesn't see something he likes, he's taking off and making something out of nothing.

Or he's, you know, taking off and then throwing. I mean, they've made a lot of big plays with him on the run with his arm in recent weeks. like the big one in Cleveland to Marquis Brown. So, you know, there's a bunch of factors. I think Greg Roman has changed some of their run schemes a little bit to mask the fact that they're without, you know, their best blocking tight eye and Nick Boyle, you know, but, you know, it looks a lot like the team last year in terms of how they're going about things and the run-heavy approach and how much Jackson's using his legs.

But obviously, in some areas, the personnel is a little bit different. I think that makes total sense. And I think back to the week one win over the Browns. And the passing game was incredible. You know, Lamar finished with 20 to 25 for 275 and three touchdowns. And it honestly felt, I remember talking about it this way, that this was going to be a different version of this offense, that he had settled in so much as a passer.

And even the following week, he went 18 to 24 for 200 yards against the Texans. And it really did feel like he was so in control. And I almost think that two-game stretch at the beginning is like when a decent but not, not great three point shooter hits a couple early in the game and then just keep shooting them. And they really wanted to be that version of their offense and it didn't suit them. And it really does feel like he's just moving quicker and not trying to force things when it's

not there. If nobody's open, I'm going. And I really have noticed that a lot. So I think that part of it is huge. I also think you've seen some of the ways they've settled into this version of their personnel like you alluded to. Switching out your right guard and your center. midway through the season when you're this sort of run heavy team, that could doom teams.

But for them, I actually think this five with McCarty in at center now and Ben Powers in at right guard and the switching they had to do by moving Orlando Brown and left tackle, all of that, it really feels like they have a sense of how to use that group right now. Do you think that's fair? Oh, yeah. Yeah, I definitely, Robert. I think it is. And, you know, they're getting by at right tackle with Fluker, but they're also subbing, you

know, third round pick Tyree Phillips in for him for like one drive each half because earlier in the season when Fluker was having to play a lot, he kind of wore down late in the game and, you know, his technique would drop a little. I don't know if it was a stamina thing or what, but he had some issues late in the game. So they're trying to keep, keep him a little fresh through course of the game by adding Tyree Phillips. I think Ben Powers has been huge. You know, we all kind of wondered, like, you know, he's a fourth-round pick at Oklahoma. They originally was, you know, viewed as the heir apparent to Yonda when they drafted him. We were wondering, you know, why, you know, they're, why are they trying?

What's wrong with Ben Powers? But he really struggled in training camp. You know, he seems to be one of those guys you talk to people that's not a very good practice player. He doesn't really look all that impressive when you look at him. But he's added some nice physicality to that group. You know, Matt Scor has snows. napping really hurt them earlier this year. And McCarie has cleaned that up.

And I think Bradley Bozeman has really taken the next step this year. So them settling on an offensive line and that group stabilizing and kind of playing more to their strengths in terms of, you know, they're doing a lot of outside runs, you know, Dobbins in motion and getting him on the outside. And even Gus Edwards is, who is just the ultimate between the tackles guy last year. You even see him getting outside a lot more. So it was like Greg Roman realized, you know what, we're not going to be able to line up, run it straight down the, straight down the team's throats right now with our personnel,

without Stanley, without Boyle, you know, with some inexperienced and offensive lines. So we need to add some dimensions to this running game. And, you know, they've gotten guys on the edge a lot more and getting different ways of, you know, running the football that we didn't really see last year. And I think that's been hugely important to what they've done. I mean, they're averaging 267 rushing yards per game over the last five games. I mean, that's pretty close to unheard of. It's incredible.

And if you look at the numbers, so they were fifth in the NFL in EPA per rush over the first half of the season. It was 0.022. That's pretty good, right? It's like, oh, that's solid. Like, they're a top five rushing team. Over the second half of the season, 0.156, which is clearly the best in the league. So five times as good per rush. So the ranking isn't much different, but the efficiency is completely different.

And I think the outside runs point is such a good one. And not only are they, has Dobbins given them a little bit of a more dynamic type of option to get on the edge, but because he's going in motion and those runs are threatening the edge, they're able to come back with some of these quarterback counter runs up the middle. And I think that's been one of the biggest differences is that Lamar is attacking between the tackles now, where last year a lot of the damage he was doing is when he would pull and go around the edge. And not only is that allowing them to threaten teams both inside and outside, but it's creating angles for them in the run game. If you look at their quarterback counter runs where they have Brown and Bozeman pull from left to right, that allows their backup center and backup right guard to have angles on the front side of these plays. So it's a way to use your best linemen as weapons, a way to help your lesser linemen, and a way to throw a counter punch with your

most dynamic player having the ball in his hands. It's a really, really smart evolution in season from Greg Roman that I think is given this team an entirely new level than they had at the beginning of the year. It's funny, you know, and around here, around these parts, they can't get rid of Greg Roman soon enough. I mean, it's ridiculous. I get it. I mean, they've struggled in the passing game.

It's kind of his reputation where he's kind of struggled to, you know, marry, uh, running, you know, a powerful, versatile. running attack with, you know, downfield passing game. But, you know, I don't think, you know, and they have struggled in some areas and his play calling has been curious at times, but I don't think he's gotten really enough credit down the stretch here with what he's done to make, I mean, because you look at the names on that offensive line, you know, Eric Tomlinson's playing a ton, you know, blocking, you know, they're doing a lot with their personnel and doing a lot with that scheme. And, you know, the Giants had a good rushing defense. And, you know, they gave up

250 yards to the Ravens on the ground. You know, the, you know, they haven't played the best defenses down the stretch. But with the way they're running the ball, I think most teams would be struggling to stop them right now. They've shown a completely different look, you know, and Dobbins has been at the key to that. And you made a great point about how they're using, you know, Lamar and running this year that some of his biggest plays have been. where he's done that and gone up the middle rather than just constantly going around the edge, you know, off, you know, different things. So it's been different.

It's been a very fun to watch. And I think, you know, they're creating more things downfield, too, in the passing game. It's not a dynamic passing attack by any means. But, you know, we saw some big strikes to Boykin and Marquis Brown in recent weeks. And, you know, it's kind of getting closer to the offense. I think people envisioned it being, you know, at the start of the year. The play to Boykin, I think, is a great example. example of what the passing game can be.

Because teams, for the most part, over the last couple years, have done a really good job taking away the middle of the field against Lamar on purpose, because that's where he's best. And they ran, I think it was just the call it a Mills concept. It was a deep in with Andrews, and then Boykin came behind it on a post against the Bengals. And it was gorgeous. Andrews held the single deep safety. Boykin went right behind it one-on-one with the corner, and Lamar delivered a great

ball between the numbers where he's best. So I think leaning into some vertical concepts like that makes a ton of sense with what they have. I also think that in the beginning of the year, because he wasn't as decisive running, teams were able to play a little bit more man coverage against them and sit in it. Now he's making teams pay when they do that. He's taking off immediately. That's forcing teams into zone. And he's really good against zone. So all of these things like one hand washes the other.

There's a domino effect when he's more confident and dynamic as a runner. it makes things easier for them in the passing game. Yeah, and, you know, it was a great example of Boykin play because, you know, I guess it was Jesse Bates earlier the season. And what he said was true. He's like, look, we know if he's going to throw the ball. He's going to throw it to either Andrews or Marquis Brown. And we saw on that play, Von Bell, I think it was, you know, totally kind of bit.

And as you said, Von Bell, expected Mark Andrews to get the ball. and that left Boykin one-on-one. You know, early in training camp, you know, there's so much attention this year on Lamar Jackson throwing the deep ball and then making bigger chunk plays in the passing game. And, you know, in training camp, you know, Marquis Brown and Boykin, and those guys were, you know, in a lot of days having their way with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters.

And, you know, we thought we were going to see that more, you know. It was impressive to watch at times. then the season started and then the deep ball or the downfield passing game, you know, after those first two games, you know, you mentioned, you know, the Browns game in week one, you know, it kept going a little. And then it just kind of, you know, came to a halt. And we just didn't see it. I think, you know, they play the Titans, obviously Sunday. And Marquis Brown, I think, had zero catches on three targets the last time they played the Titans. They just were not getting these guys involved at all. Now you're seeing the starting to get them in some nice matchups. and those guys starting to make plays down the field. It bodes well for them, definitely. I think the question will be heading in this playoff. If they get behind, can they come back and win? You know, we saw in the Titans game last year.

We've seen it against the Chiefs. That'll be the test. But their passing game certainly been much more efficient than we saw earlier this year. You mentioned Marcus Peters and Marwan Humphrey, and I think that obviously the back end of that defense is its strength. And just, again, doing a little bit of a reset, when you're thinking about the defense heading into the playoffs, what would you say is the number one concern that you have?

And what do you think is the number one thing you expect them to lean on in the playoffs, especially against Tennessee? Yeah, you know, obviously with what Derek Henry has done to them, the last two meetings, just kind of bullied them. You know, it's going to start with stopping the run. But, you know, talking about Humphrey and Peters, they did not play well when they played the Titans in November. You know, Davis and, you know, Corey Davis and, you know,

A.J. Brown won that matchup against those two. And the Ravens can't afford that. I know Davis and AJ Brown's a great player and Davis has played pretty well this year. But the Ravens need Peters and Humphrey to hold up in coverage a lot better than they did. That's still supposedly the strength of their team, you know, of their defense, you know, their corners. And I think Anthony Averts played really well in recent weeks. And I think there's a good chance that they get Jimmy Smith back for this game. He's going to ask you. He's going to ask you. He's going to practice. and yes last week and and I'd expect you'd have a good chance to play so wink martindale's getting a couple of his toys back um so i i think they should they should stand a pretty good chance uh in the

passing game you know you worry about henry but i think the biggest concern robert is overall i you know they're so young at inside linebacker and patrick queen has put up some stats he's looked really good at times um when he's unblocked and he gets a free run at you it's impressive to watch, the athleticism all there, but where the Ravens have struggled, and they're inside linebacker in particular, when teams run right at those guys and, you know, linemen are getting to the next level and, you know, Queen and, you know, whoever they're playing there, Malik Harrison, LJ. Ford, it's Chris Bourd. Martin Dells used a lot inside linebackers. When those guys are having to fight through traffic, teams have really been able to get downhill on

them. Patriots did it in a big way. You know, we saw the Titans do it in that first meeting. So they're going to need those guys to grow up fast and play physical because at times they haven't necessarily passed that test. And then, you know, the Texans are going to run right at them and see if they can stop them. It's really surprising when you look at some of the numbers, just stuff you wouldn't ascribe to a Ravens team. They're 21st in EPA allowed per rush during the second half of the season. And when you think of this team, you just think really good run defense, aggressive secondary. and it just hasn't been that over the second half of the year. The idea that they're susceptible getting run over in the playoffs

is just kind of hard to come to terms with, but it feels like we're kind of at that point. Yeah, you know, and I think the second half of the season, partly Clayas Campbell just hasn't played much. I mean, he had the calf injury. Then he had COVID-19. He hasn't been on the field. And that was, you know, when they retooled the defensive front,

he was a major part of it. That was the key piece. And he hasn't been on the field. than when he has, he hasn't been all that healthy. I think COVID really hit him hard in terms of energy standpoint. He should be getting closer back to normal. Brandon Williams missed some time, you know, very good run stuffing nose tackle. So, you know, with them healthy, I like their chances better.

But still, you know, the inside linebackers worry me a little bit when it becomes a real physical, grinded out game. They have to pass the test. I know Martin Dale has challenged them at different points of the season. And I know they expected some of this. You know, Queens a really young guy. He didn't even start in the beginning of last year at LSU. So they expected some growing pains there.

And he, you know, he's a little undersized to begin with. But, you know, it is that their run defense has never been a concern or very rarely been a concern over the years. That's what they kind of, you know, start with. Everything starts with their ability to stop the run. But it's certainly something to watch come playoff time because they've been susceptible. ball. Even against the bangles, they gave up a huge play in the running game. And, you know, you never used to see that kind of stuff happen to their defense. Is there any other kind of quiet injuries to worry about on that side of the ball? I know they're getting guys back, but

anybody that's banged up and playing at like 75% of himself that we should definitely know about? That's a good question. You know, I think a guy and, you know, given how they play, the Titans run heavy and it's not really his game. But I think a guy to watch is in Gakwe. You know, they got him for this reason. You know, they didn't, they got him because they wanted to be able to create more pressure with their front four. And that really wasn't their strength.

You know, Judon's a solid pass rusher, not an elite guy. But they're really struggling, which is one of the reasons Martindale Blitz so much earlier the season. But, you know, he has a thigh injury. The hope is he'll play this week. I can't imagine he's going to be 100. percent. You know, they announce it as a thigh. Those are usually hamstrings that linger a couple weeks. But it sure would be nice for the Ravens to be able to have him on the edge, you know,

his big play potential. He's obviously seen plenty of the Titans over the years. But his status is definitely a guy worth watching on that defense because they felt like with him in there, that would kind of take their defense to potentially a new level just with his pure pass rushing ability. So I don't want to look too far ahead because I think this is a legitimate contend team and we should worry about what they're going to do in the playoffs. But as you're kind of thinking about next spring and where they might need to retool a little bit and what this team still needs, what are the two or three spots that really jump out to you to feel like absolute priorities for the front office going into

next year? Yeah, well, I think we just talked a little bit about one of them. They have to figure out the outside linebacker position. They have six guys, you know, that have been on their roster for a good part of the year. and five of them are all free agents. And two of them in Matthew Judon and Yankee and Gakwe are going to be probably pretty well compensated free agents.

Then you had Tyos Bowser who's really come on, you know, this year who's had a good year, not a pass rusher, but does a lot of things for that defense. Pernel McVee, a veteran and Jehad Ward. So they have to first figure that out at inside linebacker. They have to find that mix. I don't know. The only really guy that they have coming back under contract is Jalen Ferguson. he really hasn't taken the next step this year, the former third round pick.

So they have to figure that out. And this is every year we talk about this, the Ravens need a receiver. You know, I know they've drafted four of them in the last two drafts. And, you know, I think Marquis Brown, you know, has come on at times this year. And I think he's a piece going forward. Boykin, I'm less sure about. But I still think Devon DuVernay can be worked in. Then they still have prochet, who's been mostly returning punts.

but they need to find whether it's a veteran or, you know, a guy, another rookie, I would lean towards veteran just because they have four young receivers already. They need to find a guy to kind of lead that receiving group and kind of become a go-to guy. And then the other thing I would say is, you know, just shoring up the interior of that offensive line. You know, I think Bozeman's here to stay at guard, but is McCarrey your center going forward? It's certainly not going to be Scora, who's a free agent. But then they're also going to find is Ben Powers that guy. You know, how much they want to run the ball in that offense, you can't put enough of a premium on interior offensive linemen.

So I think if you can find a huge upgrade at one of those spots, that's also an area they're going to have to pursue. The one guy that I keep coming back to because Willie Sneed is a free agent and that he's really their slot, change direction, space receiver. I just think that I don't know if he's going to get out of Tampa because they have some money. Chris Godwin on this team just every time I think about it makes me excited. He's like the exact type of player

they need and he's the best version of that player. That would be amazing. I don't know if that's ever going to happen because it feel like at the very least he's going to get tagged in Tampa Bay. But that type of guy, I think, is an element of this offense that's missing still even with them playing a little bit better easily.

That's a great call, Robert. I totally agree with you. And you know what? I think after taking four shots at receivers, you know, and these aren't like late round guys. I mean, Prochet was was a little later around, but these are first and third round picks. Developing receivers has sort of been the Achilles heel in this organization. I mean, it's like, you know, it's, I think it's one of, it's the only position where they haven't had

a homegrown pro bowl or at in franchise history. You know, Ozzie Newsom was always criticized for it. God, it's so true. Tori Smith and Aquin, like that's the group of those guys. It's so true. I didn't even think about that. Yeah, yeah. You know, they, Germaine Lewis made the Pro Bowl, but it was as a returner. Otherwise, all their success stories kind of, Tori Smith had a good run, but most of their success. I forgot he was drafted by them. That's right. Yeah, most of their success stories have been veterans brought in late, like Steve Smith Sr. and Anquam Bolden and Derek Mason, that's how they've sort of filled that position. So it wouldn't surprise me, given the fact they've already, you know, invested a lot of early draft picks last two years. If they say, you know what, we're going to

pay a free agent receiver. That's probably the best way, you know, the best way I'd approach it this off season. Awesome. Jeff, thank you very much. Sincerely appreciate the time. I'm sure we'll talk to you down the road. Sounds great, Robert.

Really enjoyed it. Take care. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you so much to Barnwell. Thank you so much to Jeff Sarabic for joining us. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. It would mean a lot to me. Please subscribe to the athletic.

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