The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Bills trade Stefon Diggs to Texans + Teams with the most at stake in the 2024 NFL Draft with David Helman

Episode Date: April 4, 2024

Stefon Diggs is heading to Houston! Robert Mays is joined by David Helman, host of the "NFL on Fox Podcast," to break down the blockbuster trade. Then, they dive into which teams have the most at stake in the 2024 NFL Draft.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Join to me today. It is our good friend, the host of the NFL on Fox podcast and burgeoning TV star. David Helman. Dave, how you doing, buddy? I'm uncomfortable with that introduction, but I'm always thrilled to be on with you, man.

How are you? I'm doing very well. It is a fun time in the NFL calendar. Obviously, we got tons of draft talk to get into. But guess what? We had a bombshell today. So that is where we're going to start. We're going to talk about teams that we think have the most at stake in this draft a little bit later.

We're doing a lot of prospect-centric stuff. Nate and I've been going through the needs for every team. But I want to get into what's actually at stake for some of these teams in this year's draft. But before we dig into that, we have to talk about what happened with Steph Diggs and the Houston Texans earlier today. Stefan Diggs heading to Houston for a 2025 second round pick when you first saw this new come down. What was your initial reaction? Well, let's do a little inside baseball. My first reaction is, yes,

I host the NFL on Fox podcast now, so I'm trying to get like you. And my first reaction was hell yeah, we got content, baby. It's the off-season. I don't have to think that hard about what we're going to talk about today. It's especially in the off-season.

It's amazing when that happens. But outside of that, my first reaction was, holy crap, he knew. He knew, be can look robert i'm terminally online i spend too much time on twitter but do you know where i'm going with this did you see what stephan dig said on tuesday i think on tuesday night was it someone who said that uh josh allen didn't need stepan dig something along those lines and then he responded with are you sure yeah he goes you sure about that speaking of term speaking of terminally online

by the way the fact that he saw somebody say that in real time that's all you need to know about his habits. It's incredible. So like I'm I'm walking my dog keeping up on Twitter and I see that Stefan Diggs said that and I don't know nine hours later. He's a Houston Texan. So I have to believe he knew something was up. But yeah, it's I mean, it feels like the culmination of 18 months worth of drama. The bills tried really hard to tell us that there was no drama. But as I'm sure you're about to get into the terms of the deal, sure. as hell make it seem like there was drama because why else would they do it? This feels like another sign from the bills that it's time to turn the page because even as

they were dealing with the drama last off season, you remember that Sean McDermott quote about being a little bit troubled about him not being there for OTAs. And even during the training camp, I remember talking to people there and they really did try to downplay it because I think they understood that they really had a window last year. Like they were going to be a Super Bowl contender. They had all of the pieces that they had kind of acquired over the last couple years. at a shot. And Stefan Diggs was a necessary part of that. But if you look at where that team is right now, and if you look at

sort of the reset that they hit with the guys they moved on from the soft season, the financial situation that they're in, it becomes less shocking to make a move like this because if you're going to be in that reset, restart mode, those headaches are a little bit harder to justify and a little bit harder to

talk yourself into. And I think that's exactly the place that the Buffalo Bills reach this spring. Clearly, and we can't say it's surprising because again, I mean, going all the way back to the loss to Cincinnati in the 22, 23 playoffs, again, you downplay it all you want, but like when Stefan Diggs is barking at Josh Allen in a playoff game, it was a mental image that I don't think anybody ever completely got rid of. And so I can't say I'm surprised, but then at the same time,

the bills play in the AFC. And there's all this competition. and all of these teams that they have that they need to get past that they have yet to get past obviously the chiefs it speaks for itself and i just i look at it and i'm like okay and i actually before we started recording i saw brandon bean that bill's gm said he was like are we a better team right now no we're not and i'm like yeah that's the that's the problem you're not better and how are you realistically going to get better and that's i can't say i'm surprised, but it is a little surprising just to know that even with whatever headaches there are, that they willingly got worse, knowing how stiff the competition is in the AFC. When you have a quarterback that you're paying, though, at some point on the journey,

you're going to have to take your medicine. And that often applies to the past catchers. We've seen this with a bunch of teams over the last few years. The Tyree kill trade needed to happen because of what the chiefs were paying Patrick Holmes, and they need to pump some of those resources back into other positions. The Bengals are going through this right now. If they eventually move on from T. Higgins, it's because if we're paying Joe $55 million a year and Jamar is going to make $35 million a year, at some point there has to be a concession. And Josh Allen is on one of those contracts.

And when you're dealing with that sort of cap hit and that sort of not financial burden, but just financial reality year in and year out, eventually you're going to have to make some really tough decisions. And I think this falls in the camp of being a really tough decision. And I, you're totally right. And I mean, on some level, I guess, kudos to Brandon Bean for being willing to make a tough decision. And we'll see how it ages. But the key difference always is that the chiefs like Tyree kills a great comparison, but the chiefs had won a Super Bowl. The chiefs had been in another Super Bowl. The chiefs, even when they traded him, they're like, we're going to be in the AFC title game.

We always are. And we'll just pivot and we'll find a way. The bills have yet to get there. And so I can, I feel like a sense of desperation of like, we have to do this. And it's going to take every, you know, drop of sweat that we have. And now you are without to this point, your best offensive playmaker. And like I said, maybe, maybe Brandon Bean is going to look like a genius when this works out. But I sympathize for Bill's fans right now if they aren't convinced that that's going to be the case, at least not in 2024.

Yeah, they're definitely going to take a step back. And I think now it's about figuring out. how you're going to recoup players at that position in that position room. We'll talk about the bills here in a second when we get to some of these teams. I think the more notable thing is they took on $31 million in dead money to do this. There's no savings involved with this, and that's all you need to know about how ready they were to move on from him. And it's funny because I was looking at a couple, two moves specifically to me.

After the purge happened before the first night of free agency, where they cut all those guys and you couldn't even fit them all in the same graphic. there were two moves to me that I did the Windhorst thing where I was like, why? Like, what does this tell us? The first was the way that they restructured Dawson-Noxus contract. Because I just assumed, looking at all their moves in succession, that they were going to try to clear the books for 2025. That's what they were trying to do.

So they'd be back in a position where they could spend. The way that they reset Knox's contract is they save $7 million on the 2024 cap, but now they can't move on from him after this season and save money. I was like, oh, that's interesting, because his contract had no guaranteed money left on it or very little after this year. So they could have just moved on. Now they're paying him $14.5 million in 2025. I wonder why they would do that. And the other one was the Trey White move, making him a post-June 1st cut instead of just a normal cut.

So instead of getting $6 million on their eve of free agency, they get $10 million on June 1st. And with both of those moves, I was like, that doesn't really compute based on some of the other things they've done and what they might want to do in 2025. Well, now we know they needed every dollar they possibly could get in financial flexibility because his cap it went from $27 million this year to $31 million after trading him. So now a lot of the other things they did over the past month or so make a little bit more sense to me when at first glance they were a little bit confusing. That's a really good point. And especially like, you know, I think thinking back to last season, you know, Dalton Kincaid had such an encouraging rookie year. I think not trying to take the guy's job away. You saw people talking like, oh, well, maybe this is your new Dawson Knox and that gives you the flexibility to move on from him in the future.

So that is interesting that you commit to a guy long term when you have another potential number one tied in. And I love that point. Because, I mean, this is where it goes always. Like you adjust to the news. You're like, damn, the bills really wanted Stefan Diggs out of town. Then you start looking at how they can pivot from this and getting some money from, Tradavius White on June 1st, all of a sudden could be really useful. They need it.

They have $4 million in cap space. Without that money, they wouldn't be able to pay their draft picks. I'm sitting, you get, you get, I mean, you do that. You go through the draft. You see who you got. You worry about all that stuff. And then you get a decent little windfall that you can use to potentially address something else.

I mean, I don't know what they're going to do with it, but there are still plenty of veterans out there. I know we're going to talk about the bills, but. whether it's adding in their secondary or whether it's doing something as obvious as signing another receiver. There are still useful receivers available right now. So, yeah, I think it's interesting that they could use that money to pivot once the draft is over. Let's talk about this from the Texans perspective, because that was actually my first thought, because I wasn't surprised by this.

You hear rumblings, and I talked to somebody earlier this week about it potentially happening. And so this wasn't shocking when I saw the move. but the fact that the Texans actually did this, my initial thought is, hell yeah. Like, let's ride, baby. If you're the Texans, you know that you have, I'll say an elite quarterback on a rookie deal. I'll say a guy who already is probably like a top eight player at the position. You are in the best possible position you possibly can be it as an NFL franchise with a guy making, I don't know, what is it, $9 million against the cap this year that's going to give you top eight quarterback play.

And they've already shown us this is where they are in terms of mindset. The Daniel Hunter move going out and spending the way that they did. And this is just the last piece. They are fucking going for it. And for them to be a year removed from a team nobody was talking about to now being a team that clearly wants to win the Super Bowl in 2025, I absolutely love that. Even if I do think that there's some risk involved here. I mean, there's absolutely risk, but that's, I'm never going to kill you for taking a risk to go for it, man. Like I think especially like when you like when you talk about this like you know and it's good to be analytical and think about it intelligently.

I get all of that. But like at the other day, we're here to have fun. And like you're trying to get butts in the seats. You're trying to get fans excited. So yeah, go for it. Dude. Put your pedal down. Yeah.

Like I absolutely think C.J. Stroud is a top eight, 10 quarterback right now. And when you factor in the contract, eight million dollar cap hit. right now. The only quarterback that I think is definitively more valuable than C.J. Stroud and the entire league is Patrick Mahomes. Like when you include money. Like, CJ's ability combined with how cheap he is, it is an incredible situation the Texans in, are in, and I love them for having the moxie to go for it. You obviously never know how it's going to work out, but like, what's the point of keeping the powder dry? We're here to have fun

and try to win a championship. And that's clearly what they're doing. And Even more so, what I think is really fun is when the season ended, I got some pushback for saying this, but I thought, you know, there were multiple ways the Texans could have gone. Because, like, you go back and look at all the guys they had that weren't guaranteed to come back, you know, like, they had a lot of question marks. Like, Dalton Schultz was a free agent. Jonathan Grenard was a free agent. You look at it and you're like, you know, it's no given that this Texans team is as good or better than it was last year. and the Texans were like, to hell with that, we are absolutely going to be better than we were last year.

And I just think that's really fun. Yeah, I fully support this. If you know you have the guy and you know that this is your window, there are limits to it. But if you look at a lot of the moves they've made, the most aggressive moves that they've made, it's really two-year commitments. Daniel Hunter is literally a two-year contract.

This digs thing, there's no guaranteed money left after this year. So even if it doesn't work out, you're really not on the hook for anything other than that 20-25 second round pick. and it's a 2025 second round pick that doesn't even belong to you. You got that from the trade that you made with the Vikings. So the only thing to me that is the risk involved here is he's 31. He did not play well or was not productive in the back half of last year. And there's opportunity cost.

This team already has a lot of money committed in 2025. They are not going to have a ton of financial wiggle room heading into next season. So if you get to a place where you look at your roster after this year and think, and we really needed X, not another wide receiver. That to me is the only real risk involved here is that you've committed real resources potentially to a position that maybe there's going to be a moment where you thought,

and maybe we probably could have taken this in a slightly different direction. But the offset to that is, as you just pointed out, I mean, let's say this spectacularly fails. They can cut him at no cost next year. Am I right about that? Zero, no guaranteed money left. Nothing.

Like you, and so, what? what, you gave up a future two for a shot, a future two that to your point did not belong to them anyway, to try to supercharge your offense and lean into the strength of your team, which is this amazing quarterback. Like, again, no idea if it'll ever, if it'll work out. I mean, Aaron Rogers played four snaps last year. Like, you never know, but I'd never going to kill you for taking a calculated risk to really try to get over the hump. I think it's great. I'm with you. There are moments, there are examples of this, though, going the other way. Like, this is the Julio Jones trade. He's a little bit younger and he doesn't have the same injury

history that Julio had, but the Titans traded a two for Julio and he did absolutely nothing. He had played 10 games the year before and I think that he had missed a lot more time than digsags over the years. But it's worth pointing out that there are other ways that this can go rather than, yeah, it's all right. It's going to just be lying straight up for the next however long in Houston. At this point, I mean, half of the stuff that we spend our offseason speculating about blows up famously in everybody's face. So yeah, like, would that shock me? Yeah. And I mean, you do have to think about, uh, you know, yeah, Stefan's downturn in production last year. I mean, I hate to be that guy, but how is he

going to mix in that locker room? Because, I mean, two, two teams have now moved on from Stefan Diggs when he was still a productive, good player. And the vibes were in macular in Houston last year. They were immaculate. So that there's some risk involved with that. But if I'm the Texans, I'm doing this every single time because now is the time. I also, yeah. And I think, you know, young quarterback. I mean, the vibes were immaculate in Buffalo for years, too.

I mean, it's not, let's not act like it was always this dramatic situation. So I absolutely think Stefan Diggs is worth taking the shot on at least for one year, if not a couple years. And yeah, I just love. I think the coolest thing about this league is like, I mean, Houston and Cincinnati both. Like you can go from being the laughing stock of laughing stocks to this in a year and a half, two years.

I mean, it's incredible. And I, if you get the guy, yeah. And that's what we're going to get to in a minute. But that's what makes the draft so amazing is that if your team does it correctly, you can go from being the team, you know, the team that it's like, oh, he should sit out and go into the next draft. Why would he want to go there? That's where dreams go to die to like, holy shit, the Texans are going for a Super Bowl.

And like in the span of a year, it's just, it's the best. Last thing that I just, something to keep in mind moving forward, I don't know what this means for Nico Collins. Are they still willing to pay Nico Collins? Are they going to pay him close to the top of the market deal if they're spending $18 million against the cap next year on Stefan Diggs? Neal Collins is a really good player and they have the money to make it work. But that's really the only lingering question I have about this with Houston is what that means for him.

I do think that's probably a situation where it's okay to let that be a future problem, though. Like, again, like, if Nico balls, I mean, you could cut Stefan Diggs to make money for Nico or whatever. Just see how it goes and you'll be able to figure it out when the time comes one way or the other. So this worked out very well because one of the teams that you wanted to talk about and the first team that we wanted to talk about, and the first team that we wanted to talk about and who has the most at stake in this year's draft was the Buffalo Bills. So even before this move happened,

why were the bills at top of mind for you in this exercise? I think because, I mean, the bills are the current or were, even, I mean, before they traded Diggs, they were the best example of, like, the veteran cash strap team where, like, you can see the window closing and somebody's got to do everything they can,

to prop it back open. I mean, that's what I think the bills were heading into this draft. And I mean, honestly, the digs thing, it doesn't change my mind, but it just makes it that much more drastic because, and you said it earlier, and I don't disagree, but the whole they're going to take a step back thing rubs me the wrong way if I am invested in the Buffalo bills. And again, the chiefs did it with Tyreek. And that's fine when you've already won a championship and played for.

for another one and there's like very little doubt that you've got the best quarterback of this or maybe any generation. But the bills haven't done it. They haven't even made it to the Super Bowl. So clearly like they've been short of where they want to be this entire time and you have a quarterback that's capable of scoring 40 touchdowns in a season. Like don't tell me we're going to take a step back when Josh Allen is in his prime and we know the stuff that he can do. Like I don't want to waste a year, especially a guy who relies on his athleticism as much as Josh Allen, do not tell me we're going to waste a year of that freakish ability taking a step back because Stefan Diggs had a bad attitude. Like absolutely not. I would be very worried,

borderline pissed off if I were a Bill's fan. The only thing I would say, the only pushback I would give on that is I do think that the Bill's situation, the chief situation were different in one specific way outside of the trading a receiver. The bills financially were pulling every single lever they could over the last couple of years. The amount of money they had to move around because of one, you know, a window that they were trying to maximize, but two, swings and misses on contracts. The Von Miller deal and then the Diggs deal, I think now falls under this category. They had spent so much cash over the last couple years to squeeze everything they could

out of that window in 2022 and 2023. Eventually, you just can't keep. doing that year over year, and the chiefs had never quite leveraged themselves to that degree, even as they were winning Super Bowls. You are right. I mean, there is no perfect one-to-one, but it's, I think there's so much more faith in a team in a front office when you're like, oh, well, you know, I got my, the t-shirts are in my closet, you know, I've got the memories, you know, like Bill's fans are just, they desperately

want those memories, and I just, I- Their memories are 13 seconds. That's what their memories are. You didn't have to say it. I'm just saying. I mean, that's the reality for Bill's fans right now. But yeah, so the point being is, I mean, you have such a finite amount of resources to pull this off. I mean, you kind of went through it earlier.

Trudevius White's gone. Jordan Poyer's gone. Micahide's gone. Mitch Morris is gone. Gabe Davis. Terrell Dodson. I mean, a lot of dudes. A lot of dudes are off of.

The bills as we know them are gone. Yeah. I mean, and especially now that Stefan Diggs is gone. Like it, I mean, it's Josh Allen and a handful. And I mean, Vaughn Miller's still hanging out there. Not that he really helped them do all that much last year. And so now it's it's time to replenish this roster. And I'm very intrigued by this draft, like by their picks.

Like by the way they are situated because at the front of it, it's not very sexy. You know, they pick like 28th and 60th. I'm like, I mean, I don't blame you if you're not getting hype for that. But they are loaded with stuff at the back end of this draft. Like, you know, they got, you know, they gave up a third rounder for Rassul Douglas and the trade with Green Bay, but they got a fifth back. They have two fifths, two sixth, and I believe they have two fourths as well.

They got an extra compick from Tremade Edmins, which they thought was going to be a third and ended up being a fourth. 11 draft picks. And so you sit there and all, it's intriguing. I can't say it's exciting because you got to see what they do. But all of a sudden now, like I've seen people on social media already talking about it.

They have the ammo to go up a few spots for a wide receiver if they want one. They have the ammo, you know, they don't have a third round pick, but they very easily could. I mean, two fourths, two fifth,

two six. If you love a guy in the third round, you have the ammo to get up there on day two. So, or, or you could just hang in and make 11 picks. And if you are remotely good at, like if Brandon Bean does a remotely good job, we saw the Rams do something similar last year. If you hit, if, if five of 11 picks are ready made contributors, couple starters, couple good spot players, et cetera, then this could work.

And you've got Josh Allen making, you know, making it all work. You've got Josh Allen pulling all the strings. making your offense instantly credible. There's a lot of things you can criticize Sean McDermott for. I think it goes, it flies under the radar. What an incredible job he did last year from like the last two years, I would say. I mean, everything they dealt with in 2022 and how they kept this thing on the rails, I do think that he has done an underrated job as the head coach there recently.

With the losses they had on defense last year, like somewhere around like the Philly game, they just turned into a really solid. solid defense. And that was without half of their like, you know, star caliber defenders. So, you know, you got Sean McDermott doing his thing on one side of the ball. Josh Allen making it all work. Now all you've got to do is have fun, but nail this draft. And I really do think, I mean, that is probably your your best hope at keeping pace, at least this year. And like I said, I mean, you know, if you think I'm being too doom and gloom, I think the bills are in solid shape. at all. I think that's exactly right. I mean, where did they get better? They didn't get better anywhere.

So if these other teams in the AFC, like, look at what Houston is doing. If you're going to keep pace with a team like that, you need an influx of talent somewhere along the way. And I think there are a couple different teams we'll talk about that I feel kind of the same way about heading into this draft. But Buffalo is absolutely on that list. And some people are talking about them having ammo to move way up for a receiver. I don't think that's going to happen. If you think about everything else they've done over the last month, that does not compute. with moving up and taking a huge splash swing to try to get one of those guys. Nor do I think they need to. I love how this works where, like, we spend six months, anybody who is remotely aware of the draft knows that, like, wide receiver is the thing.

It is the strength of this draft. And now everybody's like, well, the bills have to get into the top 10. I'm like, no, they could probably hang out right where they are and get a really good wide receiver if they wanted to. They can move around, though, like you mentioned. I think that's a really good point

is with the fifths that they have if they want to move up three spots or five spots. And they've shown a willingness to do that. They move for Dalton Kincaid. They move for Kyrielem, which is an entirely different story. But they have been aggressive in how they've moved up and down the draft. And I would absolutely expect, like Brandon Bean's, I doubt he's going to sit there with all 11 of his picks.

And I don't know if it'll be the first round, but I would imagine when you have two picks in three different rounds, he's going to use those to go up somewhere for someone. I feel very comfortable saying that. You could say this about every team, but it really does feel particular to them. They need a home run draft because they've never had one. Outside of the Josh Allen draft where they got Josh Allen, and I think there's been some misrepresentations about what the bill's draft history looks like.

There have been some big misses. There's no denying that. Elam, we mentioned, boogie bash him, Cody Ford, guys taken in the first two rounds just did nothing for them. But I think the biggest issue for them is it's not that there have been too many misses, that there haven't been enough home runs. All the hits that they've had in the draft, even those guys have been marginal hits. Gabe Davis, Terran Johnson, Dawson Knox,

Christian Benford, Spencer Brown, these guys that maybe are drafted a little bit later that turn into starters. And that's great. But they haven't had that class or even that many guys where you're drafting them outside the top 10 and they become Pro Bowl,

all pro level players. They've never had a draft like the Rams draft last year. They've never found a Pooka Nakua or an Amon Ross St. Brown or Nico Collins, guys like that. And somewhere along the way, if you're going to keep pace with the best teams in the league, you need one of those drafts and a couple of those players. And that just hasn't really happened for Brandon Bean during his tenure in Buffalo. It hasn't. That's, I was, you know, researching, like reading up on my stuff to do this show with you.

And I looked through the bill's draft history. And I was like, you know, this isn't as bad as people would have. have you believe. But they also just, they don't, other than Josh Allen, they don't have that draft pick who has become like foundational

to what they do. And Oliver, I think is the only argument, but he's, Ed Oliver is the ninth overall pick and Ed Oliver is a good player. Ed Oliver isn't, if you look at the defensive tackle history

over the last five, six years in the NFL, a lot of the guys taken in the first round have turned into more impactful players than Ed Oliver. Dexter Lawrence, Jeffrey Simmons. I mean, Quinn and Williams, a lot of those guys, to me, are in a tier above him, even if he is a good player.

I hate to, I'm sorry, Bill's fans. I hate to bring up the Chiefs as often as I do. But where is your Creed Humphrey? Where is your Trent McDuffie? You know, like, you need to draft and develop that caliber of a player who, like, from day one is one of the better players on your team. And yeah, like the Bill's draft history is, I would call it solid. But yeah, like they need those home run players. And if you're going to, if this is, if this is going to be the year that you're going to win a Super Bowl or get to a Super Bowl, then congrats.

I think it has to happen with these picks right here. What's like the AJ Appanessa thing? It was a second round pick. He didn't do much over the first couple years. He has the best season of his career last year. He signs back on a modest deal. You need more than that. We need a little bit more than we're getting out of the AJ Appanessa production and similar sorts of guys and similar sorts of returns over the last three or four years.

I'm 100% with you that I think they have a lot at stake, even if they're not one of the first couple teams that would come to mind. A team I think is in a sort of similar position heading into this year's draft. I'm going to go with the Ravens. The Ravens are now in a post-Lamar extension world. If you look at what he's taking up against the cap, it was 9.5% last year. It's 12 this year, and it goes to almost 16 next year. He's not getting any cheaper.

This is just the reality after you end up paying one of those guys. and Eric DeCosta's been pretty upfront about that when he's been asked about it this spring, that we paid Lamar and we're in a slightly different position now. They didn't add anybody outside of Derek Henry last month. They lost guys, multiple starters along the offensive line. Edgdivian Clowny, depth in the secondary. So they have a lot of spots where this was a really good roster last year and arguably the best team in the AFC. They have a long way to go, in my opinion, to get back there.

And I think it has to start with the draft because if you're going to find talent with the current makeup of this Baltimore team financially, it needs to come in the form of cost-controlled guys that you're getting at this stage. I think, I mean, I hear you. And yeah, that's when you're when you're in this situation, especially when Lamar's money is going to kick in. I think this is, and we're going to talk about the Bengals later on as well. Like, this is the world you live in when you pay your quarterback. I think it could apply to a lot of teams. one thing that, and I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but I felt a lot better about the Ravens when they managed to bring back Justin Matabuque, because I just had no, I just didn't think it was going to happen. I thought he was going to get the bag on the open market and be gone. And now it's like, oh, well, you know, we can we can deal with losing Patrick Queen. We still have Roquan. Like, that's not the end of the world. Losing both of those guys felt like it would have been a bigger blow to me. So I'm not, I'm not as, I'm not worried about. I'm not worried. about the Ravens, but to your point, you look at it, you know, Morgan Moses has gone.

Ronnie Stanley, unfortunately, is just one of those guys where you just can't pencil him in. And it's, yeah, the offensive line, there is, I mean, there's plenty there to worry about, but I just, I guess I think the Ravens kept enough and were good enough last year that they don't jump to my mind. But yeah, I mean, replacing losses on the offensive line, replacing losses on defense, and especially also being as far back as they are, like, that's the cost. of success, obviously, where it's this great tackle draft,

so many teams are looking at it as a way to replace starters. I don't know what's going to be there for the Ravens. I don't know if it's as easy for the Ravens to say, oh, we'll get our new right tackle at number 30 overall. Like, I don't know if that's realistic. It better be, though, because they need to find guys somewhere along the way.

I mean, right now, they need multiple starters along the offensive line. You could argue three or four. Unless they plan, you know, they drafted Andrew Voorhees in the seventh round last year because he was hurt coming. into the draft. Maybe that's something where you got value. They've made those bets on several players. Some of them have worked out. Some of them having. David Jabbo played three games last year

before tearing his ACL. They signed Josh Jones in free agency. He's played a few different positions for different teams. Maybe they try to piece it together, but it still feels like that position group specifically needs more bodies than it has right now. And I also, if you look at their history, they don't have that many guys on really good cost-controlled contracts. Because they've had second, they traded a second round to pick for Roquan. They had to pay him. Ajabo was a second round pick. Zayflowers is nice, but they used their two on Roquan last year.

And if you look at even the guys that they've hit on, the savings on Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum are good, but they're not as pronounced as they would be at some other positions because you're just not paying safety in center that much. So Kyle Hamilton's like the 25th highest paid safety in the league. That's nice, considering he's one of the best defense. of players in football, but the delta between him and the guys at the top of the market is smaller than it would be at some of these other positions.

So if you're going to be paying Lamar, what you're paying him and you're not saving that much money other places, at some point along the way, you're going to need one of these monster drafts to make sure that you're keeping pace. Which is fun. It's an interesting thought because, like, the Ravens are darlings of draft season every single year. I mean, they draft well. They're also really good.

like they just sit there and pick the good players that everybody likes, which is funny. Like, I mean, they get a lot of credit for it and deservedly so, but I think it's also worth pointing out like they don't nail these drafts as often as we probably think we do. They sure don't. Yeah.

Like I said, they, they pick the guys that I love watching college players. And a lot of them turn out to be good. I mean, Linderbaum and Kyle Hamilton, like, I'm not saying they never have success,

but every, May we're sitting there like, damn, the Ravens did it again. And then you look back a few years later and you're like, yeah, that was fine. It was fine. So this, I mean, this would be a nice year to buck that. The Dobbins Queen draft, I think is a good example of that. Where they picked Dobbins and Queen. It was like, oh, man, Patrick Queen. J.K. Dobbins is such a monster. And then J.K. Dobbins didn't really do much for them. And Queen was really good last year. But there were a lot of years during his rookie contract where they were not getting plus level play from Patrick Queen. So it's been more of a mixed bag than people think. the thing that's always in their favor, they have so many picks all of the time that even if

your hit rate isn't that great, you're still going to be able to find one or two guys in every draft that's going to be a contributor for you. You're never going to be right all the time. But the Ravens deserve to be on that short list of front offices where you're like, I like the way you do it and I wish my team did it that way. They're absolutely on that list. And that's even knowing that, I mean, yeah, you're never going to bat a thousand. But the process is always strong, always.

Yeah. And I think that's part of it too, where I'm just like, yeah, the Ravens were already the one seed. And they have, they kept the most important guy. You know, like I said, they kept the key piece of their defense. Like, I trust them to figure it out, even if, yeah, I mean, obviously it would be, it would be big for them to hit on a few picks. But if I were a Ravens fan, I would feel the same way that you do when you were talking about the bills.

Like, we got so close and we felt like we were this team that was an absolute juggernaut for stretches last year. And now we're just going to kind of half-ass this off-season and not add anybody and just roll with the group we had last year after losing Mike McDonald. I'm not criticizing what they've done. I think it makes total sense. But if I were a Ravens fan, I would feel a little bit anxious about where we are right now compared to where we were on New Year's Eve of last year.

You could study the mental effect that the chiefs have on the AFC. It reminds me, you know, went to LSU, big LSU football fans. And like Alabama just scarred me. Like competing with that ruined my life. And I can imagine it's very similar for, you know, rivals of the chiefs. The next team on here for you, I think, is the team I had in mind we were going to do this exercise. And that is the Minnesota Vikings. I think it's pretty self-evident why you would put the Vikings on here.

It's one of those things where I was like, oh, this is too easy. Like, this is too obvious. I wanted to have all these smart takes. But like, how do you not include them? I mean, it's other than the bears who we can also get to, but like, they're just one of those teams that's a blinking red light of like, oh, man, they got, there's a lot at stake here. I mean, they already did the trade. They already have the ammo. They also, I mean, they already let the starting quarterback go.

And I don't personally, I don't really care that much what your opinion of Kirk Cousins is. It is a ballsy move to let a capable starting quarterback walk out the door. many teams would not be willing to do it. For good or for ill, many teams would not be willing to do it. You don't see it happen often. And so, I like so much about what the Vikings have done here.

I think I love Kevin O'Connell as a coach, Coizia dofa Mensa. I think he's done a good job of like, and it feels like we've been talking about this forever, like the soft reboot, like revamping the roster while staying competitive. And it's like, great. You did a phenomenal,

job and now you have to nail the biggest decision you've made in a long time. And guess what? You're getting fired if you screw this up. Like, I mean, if they do what we think they're going to do and trade up into the whatever, into the top six for a quarterback, if they don't nail it, it's over, at least for the general manager, probably for the head coach as well, because he's a very you know, quarterback driven head coach. Like they're going to be aligned in this decision. And so, yeah, It's obvious, but you got to get this right. I think the one caveat, and I don't expect this to happen because you don't make these trades.

You know, you don't trade to acquire pick 23 unless you have a plan in mind. But what gives me pause is this idea that's floating around right now of like, oh, well, maybe it won't fall their way and they'll retool and have Sam Donald start and they'll see what happens next year. Or maybe they'll draft a guy like on day two. If that actually happens, I think it takes a little bit of. of the pressure off, but I don't expect that to happen. I think they're going to trade up for their guy and then let the chips fall where they may.

And it's obvious, but very entertaining. I think their only reason they're doing that is because they have to do something to gain back leverage in some of these trade negotiations. They've got to make somewhere along the way, someone somewhere along the way believe that they're not absolutely desperate to move up and willing to pay whatever they need to. They're going to try to move up in next year's draft when they don't have a second round pick because they've already traded it away to get their, set there another first round pick this year.

I'm not buying that for a single second. I think everyone knows that they need to do this. And that's why they're trying to put stuff out there to push back on it a tiny bit. I was, it was interesting to me because we've, I've talked about this 100 times. That's why I wanted to let you be the one to bring up the Vikings because I talk about this seemingly on every single show.

Timo Riesk from, from BFF brought this up today. And I thought it was a really interesting point about the draft capital involved and the series of trades that we're seeing. Because when I saw them make that move, I was thinking, and oh man, you're going to pay a tax to make two trades. But if you look at the move that they made, according to modern draft charts, it's a loss for the Vikings.

It's a good trade for the Texas. But according to the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, which is what a lot of teams use to facilitate draft trades, they actually won. So if they're going to make a second trade, the move that they made already is actually smart in giving themselves ammunition to do it. But if they stick and pick at 11 and 23, ultimately it becomes a bad series of moves. And that's just one more reason why they're going to make a trade. Like they are going to do this because they have to.

Can you imagine like all this happens? And like, I mean, everybody, when you're trading for ones, like when you're trading big time assets, the whole organization is involved. Like the Will family signed off on this or at least told Quasi like, we trust you, do what you got to do. can you imagine Quasi comes back on draft night and he's like yeah it didn't really work out so now we've got a guard and a cornerback like that's just like I know that's not that's not good process I don't I don't buy that being a thing for a second I think they are in love with one to three guys and they have a spot where they're going to try to pull the trigger and hopefully hopefully they haven't lost so much leverage that they have to do something completely insane actually I love love that. It feels like there's a dialogue going on with the Vikings right now where like some Vikings fans think that they're going to get out of this without having to give up next year's one. And I just want to, I want to live in a world as optimistic as that. I want to live in a world where that's realistic because I don't think it is. And he like, let's say, I mean, let's say

there is a world where a quarterback falls to like eight and there, it is a manageable trade where they can get from 11 to 8, the odds that it's going to be the guy they want and the odds that it's going to be like the odds that they're going to be willing to wait that long because that's the other thing too. Like it's easy for you to say that as a fan or me as a reporter. It's easy to be like, oh, if you waited until 8, you have no idea, man. Like the classic story of the chiefs jumping Sean Payton for Patrick Mahomes. Like you have no idea who's coming or when they're willing to do it. the actual teams cannot be that patient. And so I absolutely think that the Vikings are going to have to go up to like four or five to make this happen.

In front of the Giants, because I think that's the consideration. The Giants absolutely can pick off that guy if you decide to wait longer than back. And I mean, I don't know if you call it an overpay or what, but I think it's going to take 1123 and next year's one. And then you sit back and light the cigar. I mean, well, but the rest of it is like changed. Sure. But even with one, even with the 2025 one, I would not be at all surprised if they needed to include more to get it done. If Marty Awesome Ford's just sitting there and being like, you know what, I'm going to ask for one more thing. That would not shock me whatsoever.

I saw the video of him on draft day yesterday, like, you know, from last year where he's just working the phone. So yeah, I can't say I'd be surprised. All right. Let's go to the Cardinals then, because I had them on my list and I think they are a natural trade partner here. And for them, I just think it's time. The reason they're on this list is because you made a trade last year to move out of the top 10 and give yourself future draft capital. Now you have the future draft capital. And somewhere along the way, that needs to turn into players. They have an arsenal of picks in this year's draft.

Beyond just the extra one that they have, they have three thirds. They have seven picks in the top 104 in this year's draft. And when that's the case, you need this to be a transformative draft. You need this to be the draft where you can get three, four starters and pair them with a very expensive quarterback that you're already paying to try to get on a route to competitiveness. And I think that's exactly what they're staring at. And I think that it's kind of a, it can be a formative draft for where this regime ends up going. I love the differing thought processes. I mean, I agree with you.

But, you know, you told me what the show was. going to be like who's facing the most pressure. And my immediate thought is like, okay, so I'm thinking teams that like need to make that push to win a championship or teams that are going to be out of a job if they screw this up. I don't think the Cardinals apply to either of those, but that doesn't make this any less big for them because you're right. Like, you know, and that's what like when you told me the Cardinals were a team, I was like, oh, okay, I'm not sure. I'm not sure I really agree because like the vibes in Arizona are so good right now, you know, like Jonathan Gannon was an immediate success, Monty Austin Ford immediate success.

This was this was a team that we thought was tanking in August and then was just the most delightfully surprisingly entertaining team of the year, not relative to record, but relative to like how they played. So I'm saying and their draft class last year, it wasn't like a home run, but you get useful contributions from like Michael Wilson, B.J. OJolari was fine for a guy you drafted in the second round. But you're right in that like if they are going to keep this arrow moving upward, if and they share a division with the 49ers, you can't forget that. So it's interesting where like there's no immediate pressure, but if they don't nail some of these picks, they're probably

going to look back in a couple years and be like, ah, that's why we're not where we want to be. That's where I sit. Even if they're not going to get fired immediately, and even if the reactions to this and the consequences of this, we're not going to realize them in 2025. This is the draft that can reshape the entire future of the franchise. They did fine last year, but with all of the picks that you've acquired, this is the one where if you hit on some of these, by 2026 or even 2025, you can be a contending team. If somehow with this just war chest that you have, you can figure out a way to maybe move back and then move back, up into the top 10 and come away with the neighbors. With that second first round pick that you have, you get a starting level corner. With all the third round picks that you have, you can rebuild

the interior of your offensive line. This draft and the amount of capital that they have has a chance to be transformative if it goes right for them. So even if there's not a lot of stake in the near term, I think in the long term, this is the draft that's ultimately going to determine their entire future. Well, let me ask you this. And I mean, it's hard to answer because we don't know what the offer would be. I mean, you know, maybe maybe the Vikings will just blow Monty Austin Ford out of the water and there's no way you say no. But I do think it's interesting to think if you're a Cardinals fan who is in love with Marv Harrison Jr. And you're like, we can get, we can pick it for and get this stud receiver that everyone agrees is going to be amazing. And then we still have 27,

35. Like, we pick three times in the first 35 picks. Like, we can still accomplish all of those restocking goals while not trading away from Maserati Marv. Like, I do, I understand that logic on, on the surface at least, where it's like, let's just take this badass and we're still going to have a lot of picks after that. But what if you think that the difference between him and the other two badasses isn't that big? And if you go from four to 11, you have a lot of all of this ammunition to potentially go back from 11 to 7 or 8 if it ends up breaking that way. And maybe we're ascribing too much of their thought process onto what they did in last year's draft. But I think because they have so much ammunition in the middle rounds, there's a chance

that they can have their cake and eat it too if that's the route they choose to go. I think what's what I love about this, and I hear you, I like your logic. Like there is a lot of pressure to get this draft right. But I just love the. vibes of where the Cardinals are. Like, they have all this ammo. They were surprisingly good last year. They've got the quarterback figured out, which I am relieved by, honestly. Like, I'm not saying Kyler Murray's the best quarterback in the league, but I think he's just like he's worth trying to build around just as much as like anybody you're going to find in the draft. So you got that part figured out. And however they decide to do it, the Cardinals can just throw big time draft picks

at their team. Like I'm not willing to say that there's no way they can screw this up, but it looks like a very favorable situation. I just, I love the vibes of their whole, of their whole place. To me, it's just varying degrees. Do you do a solid job with the 10 picks that you have, or do you do such a good job that it immediately puts you into being a wildcar team next year? That, that, that, that's the kind of the main crux of this for me. Who is next on your list? I have been itching to talk about this team, because I feel, I feel like a crazy person sometimes because I think I'm the only person that's excited by them. And I'll stick with the tradition here on your show, the Washington team, not their nickname.

But the team in Washington has such a huge opportunity in front of them. And I'm so excited about it. Like I love, love might be an overstatement, but I really like what they did in free agency. Like you look like when when the dust cleared on the negotiating period, people are like, oh, like they didn't even get all these great players. Like they got Tyler Beattish and Nick Allagritty and Dorrance Armstrong and Dante Fowler and Frankie Louvo. Like they didn't even get any stars. I was like, yeah, that's the point. You're not, they've done the Washington has done the overspend for good players a million times.

It's all they used to do. Yeah. And they finally, they're like, you know, what? We have to spend this cap space and we're just going to litter our roster with useful players. It's not going to transform us, but it's going to lay the foundation to where if we get this draft right, we should be pretty good. And oh, by the way, they have the number two pick for the first time since RG3 and they didn't have to mortgage the future to get up there, by the way. They came by it all, oh natural just from their own awfulness. And then they've got, they have

six picks in the top 100, Robert. Like, it's right there for them. And they didn't have to do anything terrible to get there. You know, they hired, they did the, the very in vogue thing and hired somebody out of San Francisco's front office. So you'd like to think that Adam Peters has picked up a few things. I don't know if Dan Quinn gets you super excited, but he's at least been an NFL head coach. Like, you know, he's, he's not in over his head.

He took a team to the Super Bowl. I know what happened when he got there, but that's still an impressive thing. My only response to that is Calshanahan's not walking through that door. I know, I know. It's not perfect, but this is as good of an opportunity as Washington has had to be viable in my lifetime, probably. You know, I mean, 91, I guess. I was alive, but I don't remember it. And I just, I think it's incredible.

The analogy I came up with, do you remember? when you were a kid, did you ever have the little pills that you take in the shower and when they get wet, they turn into dinosaurs? Yeah, that's what this is. Like, if you throw this in the water and all of us, if this works, all of us, you've got a team full of dinosaurs.

You just got this badass roster. Like, I mean, pick two, pick 36, pick 40, 67, 78,

and 100. If even like three of those are really good players, Washington's like a wild card contender. And then obviously the huge caveat is they got to nail the quarterback. But this is, I mean, you're in the situation to do it. Obviously, I'm going to assume it won't be Caleb Williams, but you have the pick of everyone else. And if you get it right and you have a decent draft class, oh, man, I'm so excited about the potential of this team if they get it right, which obviously is a huge if. a lot of similarities with this conversation to what I was

talking about with the Cardinals, the biggest difference being this team is going to draft a quarterback. And anytime you're going to draft a quarterback in any given draft, you are one of the teams that has the most at stake. The next four to five years of your franchise are now at stake. So that's why I think it's a no-brainer that Washington

is in here. So the choice they make a quarterback and whether that works out is going to define the Adam Peters and Dan Quinn era. There's no wasting time and no waiting before you make the decision. that is ultimately going to shape how this is going to go. And maybe I think part of the reason I feel strongly about it, too, is, and I mean, it's not

their fault, but the bears are just taking all of their oxygen. Like, I mean, the bears are just taking all of the conversation that could be about the commanders and it's on the bears instead. And I get it. It's important in Chicago, too. But this is, I mean, Washington's been a laughing stock for my entire life. And if they get this right, they won't be. And on the other side of that, there's pressure too.

Because like you just said, I mean, if you don't get this, if you don't nail this draft, it'll probably cost Adam Peters and Dan Quinn their jobs. Like it might take four years for that to come to fruition. But, you know, if the quarterback's not the right guy, especially if a quarterback taken after him is the right guy. That's one of the things. If you, if New England, if you take a guy and then whoever goes at three, whether it's the Patriots or some other team picking that guy, that's where this can look really bad. I mean, it's the same thing for the Bears.

If they take Caleb Williams and Drake Man's and becoming a star, I mean, that's not fun. It's not fun. Don't get me wrong. My take on that, though, is just, I don't think anybody's going to kill the Bears if they get this wrong because nobody, like,

everybody is in agreement about what should happen. It doesn't matter, buddy. It does not matter. If they get this wrong, they're absolutely going to get killed for it. The next iteration of just quarterback failure and misery in this town, if we have to endure that again over here,

it is not going to be a good time. We'll get to them. The last Washington thing I wanted throughout there, because I'm with you. I mean, you're drafted in a quarterback. You got six picks in the top 100. There's a lot on the line here. Do they use one of those extra thirds

to move back into the first round and ahead of teams like Dallas, Green Bay, Baltimore, Kansas City, all those teams in that stretch that need an offensive tackle, do they use some of that ammo to get theirs? Because when you look at this roster, there's actually a lot to like from just a support system perspective, past catchers,

they added guys along the offensive line and free agency, but after moving on from Charles Leno, they really don't have an answer there. And I don't think, just look at history. The top of the second round is not typically the place to find starting level offensive tackles. So do they use one of those extra thirds? Like, let's say it's the one from San Francisco at 100 to move back ahead of some of those teams and get a guy? Because I think that to me would be the best case scenario. is them come away from this draft,

the starting left tackle and a starting quarterback. I would if I were them, absolutely. And like, yeah, I mean, even if you, if you've got to go kind of far,

I mean, okay, so they pick their quarterback at two. And then they take 36 and 40 to go up. Like, yeah, like you said, like five,

six spots away from the end of the first round. And then you look at it, you're like, well, we only picked three times or twice in the top 40 instead of three times. But now we have Drake May and his left tackle of the future. I mean, And yes, I would absolutely do that.

Or if it falls, I could see them doing that for any premium position because they moved on from Montez, sweat and Chase Young. They need a pass rush or two. That's right. To me, that's less pressing though. If you're going to start the guy from day one, I'm not comfortable with the current situation that they have at left tackle. I agree. I'm drafting the quarterback gives you urgency at that position that you don't have for some of those spots on defense. Best case scenario is like Friday afternoon in the in the DC area.

having a press conference for a quarterback and a tackle that you drafted in the first round. I would love that. I love that you're always just thinking about the messaging and how that's going to go for all of these teams. This is the work of a man who has covered an NFL team for many years. Let's stick in the top three. I think, you know, it's not illuminating to mention that these teams have a lot on the line, but we have to talk about New England because whatever choice they make at number three is going to shape the future of the franchise in one way or the other.

And I don't know how you feel about this. All right, let's say, you might be the wrong person to ask. Can you see Jaden Daniels with like a sober look? Oh, I'm actually, I'm too hard on LSU players. All right, okay, okay. Yeah, yeah. Would you be comfortable with whoever the number three quarterback is, whether it's Jaden Daniels, Drake May, whoever,

and the current setup that the Patriots have for that guy, are you fine with them just sticking at number three, picking a quarterback, and having that be the guy from day one? Absolutely not. Since the season ended, I am team trade down for the New England Patriots. Patriots, I don't, I don't, I don't see it. I don't see what is going to set him up to be successful in the short term. And I'm not, I'm not sold that there is a guy.

I don't even know if maybe Caleb's that guy. I don't know how many quarterbacks in this draft class can be the guy in shitty circumstances and just have it all. CJ Stroud, you know, I mean, it's easy to forget how down we were on the Texans before the season started. I don't think a guy from this draft class is stepping into CJ's situation and being successful. That's my personal opinion. But see, I think the CJ's drought situation

wasn't that bad last year. And I think that's actually a really good example for how the Patriots could potentially approach this. If you look at what Houston did in the first couple years of that front office, they didn't have any picks at the top of the draft, so that certainly helped.

The year they drafted Davis Mills in the third round, that was they didn't have a pick in the first two rounds. But if you look at what they did and signing guys on the margins, playing this really slow, and then eventually using the draft capital they got for the Deshawn Watson trade to figure this out and to move things forward,

I don't mind that as a strategy. And I actually think that's a path that this team could potentially take. If they move back in this year's draft, and they trade number three for 1123 and that Vikings 2025 first, if that's what it ends up being, I actually think that sets them up better for long-term success than drafting a quarterback and dropping them into whatever currently exists. At least the Texans had Laramie Tunsell and they had Nico Collins.

Titus Howard was on the roster if he didn't play. They traded for Shaq Mason. The Texans showed a real urgency to build around and give help to whatever rookie quarterback they were going to drop into that situation last year. The Patriots have not shown that level of urgency. And that's fine. It's year one of a new front office. I don't think you have to overextend yourself to make that work.

But if you're going to draft a quarterback, I don't think those two things work together. That lack of urgency plus drafting a guy and having him play, that does not work for me. Yeah, you don't have to over-extend yourself, but you do have to give some sort of sign of confidence that this guy can succeed where he is. And I just, I don't see it the way the Patriots are constructed. And for that matter, you know, I think a theme with a lot of what we've brought up is the resources that these teams have to have this great draft. The Patriots aren't working with anything incredible. Like they pick 3, 34, 68, 103. Like, that's very normal.

They have their picks. Yeah. There's no extra, like, you know, boost that you get from somebody else's picks or anything like that. And so it's not enough to surround this guy with talent. And I just, I don't feel good about it. And you mentioned me talking about messaging. I'll even, I'll go here.

like, because I know how this works. Like you do have to remember, we always forget, like these decisions don't happen in this football vacuum, you know, like Robert Kraft is going to have his thumb on the scale. You know,

like I don't want to watch shitty quarterback play. Like that's something you have to consider. I would even, I would rather trade back and get that package. And then if I have to draft Michael Pennix Jr. or Bo Nix at 23 to appease the owner, that's still better knowing that I've got a first and next year's draft to fall back on and we've added picks where we can draft our left tackle of the future or whoever it is.

I still feel better about that than just dropping Jaden or somebody else in there at number three and saying, have fun, bud, hope you don't get killed. Yeah, I think they will draft a quarterback. I do not think they're going to trade back because I do think the owner has a huge voice and how this goes and he's in his 80s and I don't think he wants to be shitty anymore. It's been a rough couple years for him specifically. But if we are looking at this and what is the best move to build the best football team, I do think it involves trading back.

And I get it. You don't know if you're going to be in this position again. Let's say you win one or two more games next year than you should. You're drafting sixth or seventh and it's a shitty quarterback class and you're not in a position to get a guy. Then what do you do by passing up this choice? I get all of that. I just think that too often we're afraid of the unknown while making these decisions.

And I think sometimes it's worth just saying, I'm going to take all these picks, I'm going to take all these resources, and at some point, we are going to figure it out. That's easier to do when you're Nick Casario in Houston and no one in America is paying attention to your football team, the Patriots are in a very different position. But if we can take a step back and treat it as more of a vacuum, I do think that's the path that I would ultimately take. I also think the Patriots organization, they're fan base as well. I mean, I mean, you grow up, you spend. your whole life around that. It's hard to just accept like, oh, we're not going to try to improve the quarterback position right now. I get it. But I just, the long play feels like the right play here. I mean, Jacoby Preset is a good player. Jacoby Preset can keep you competitive this year, I think, if you do a good job of building around it. I don't think they'll be competitive

at all, but I think that's the argument for why they should trade back. There's a very good chance. This team is awful next year. When I say, when I say competitive, I guess what I really mean is like watchable, you know, because that's, like I said, I mean, the Cardinals weren't competitive, but they were watchable. The Patriots were not watchable. They were just, it was awful last year. So I think Jacoby Brissette and a good, you know, good infrastructure around him is an improvement from where they were. And then you take the big swing later. All right. Let's move on from the teams picking in the top five that are very obvious in this exercise and go to one a little bit further down the draft. Who's the next one for you? I just think, and I mean, we can keep this.

kind of short if we want to. I think the Cincinnati Bengals are like, I mean, they're looking at the bills right now being like, oh, that could be us in two years. Like that's the Bengals are just, they're earlier on that trajectory, but you can already see it. You know, they paid the quarterback. You've seen guys have to leave in free agency. We're seeing, you know, we'll see what happens with T. Higgins. My gut feeling is that he's probably not there for the long term. The Jamar Chase deal is coming eventually. And I, I can't wait. to see between Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and C.D. Lamb, these numbers are going to be funny. And I just can't wait to see how the Bengals deal with that. And yeah, and I mean, you can go down the line. Like, Trey Hendrickson's one of the most underrated players in the NFL, in my opinion. But how much longer is he going to give you that? I think it's easy for people to forget that he was in New Orleans for a while before he even got to Cincinnati. Like he's not this like young up-and-coming star. Tyler Boyd is is out the door this year. So like this team's all right. Joe Mixon is out the door this year. So this team is already going through it. And they don't have to nail this draft to be good in 2024. Like I think they're going to be perfect.

As long as Joe's healthy, I think they're going to be great. I think they got a chance to win their division and all that good stuff. But if they don't kick ass in this draft, that's how you wind up being the bills and being like, yeah, man, we didn't hit enough home runs. And we just, we didn't find that player that made the difference,

and that's why we still haven't won a Super Bowl and Joe Burroughs 30. Like, that's what's waiting for them unless they knock a draft class out of the park. And that's what they have not done over the last couple years. They have not found, like, true difference makers in the draft. The guys can be solid, Camptailer, but it's been decent for them. But you look, it got what they've done in like the second, third, and fourth rounds over the last, before last year's draft. So the 20, 21 and 22 classes.

Jackson Carmen in the second round, Joseph Osai in the third round, Camp Sample in the fourth round, Tyler Shelvin in the fourth round, who's not even on the roster anymore, 2022, Zach Carter in the third round, Cordell Wilson in the fourth round. So it's been fine, and they've found real difference makers early,

obviously, when you look at 2020 and 2021, but I'm with you. I think that somewhere along the way, they're one of those teams that's going to need a home-run draft. And if you think about the overall team-building strategy, what they've tried to do is, They know the offense is going to get super expensive, super fast. So can we offset that with a bunch of picks on defense that are cost-controlled guys?

That lasted one year before they brought Von Bell back and signed Gino Stone and free agency. And obviously, it's less than they would have paid Von, et cetera. But at a certain point, if that's going to be your strategy where we know that Joe's expensive, Jamar Chase is expensive, all these other guys that we've paid, you have to supplement that with cost-controlled guys that are going to be difference makers for you. And so far, that has been a little bit hit or miss over the last couple years. And I do, like, I love the stuff that they did in free agency this year. I did a great job. Yeah, you and you and Nate were talking about Trent Brown the other day.

And, uh, and I, I, I, I know what my favorite free agency signings of the year. And on top of, I love when that happens, the Von Bell thing where it's just like, yeah, we both made a mistake. Come on. It's a Patriot special. Yeah. So I love what they did, but like that is, that's for now. That's, for now. That's, for this year and that's great, but you got to nail these things in the big picture to keep that window open. Otherwise, like I said, you wind up in a little bit of a crunch. Trey Hendrickson is how old now? He's 29, so he'll be 30 this year. So he's still got a long run way. And I think they recently, you know, refigured out his contract. But that Miles Murphy

pick, like, if you're going to be spending first round picks on edge rushers, you want those guys to be difference makers for you. And he had three sacks last year. He wasn't a full-time player, but that's that's kind of what we're looking at. Yeah, like the bills, I just need a bingles draft pick to not just be serviceable, but like to be a guy that you want to build around who very quickly, you're like, oh, we'll be extending this guy. He will be part of our, you know, foundation. And who was the last guy you would say that about?

It would probably be Jemar Chase, who they drafted with the fifth overall pick. Yeah, and yeah, it was easy back then that you're not those bingles anymore. You are the successful Bengals. You've got to find this late in the draft. I mean, fortunately, you know, obviously they had to earn this pick in the teens by Joe going out, but even still, 18, it's a lot tougher to find that than it would be in the before times. Last team I wanted to mention here, because I also wanted to have more of a big picture discussion about them. That's the Dallas Cowboys.

I think they're in a similar position to a lot of the other teams that we talked about that were playoff teams last year or borderline playoff teams that are picking in the teens or the 20s. They lost a bunch of players in Free Agency this year. They have done absolutely nothing to offset that. They have added no pieces. Some of these other teams, it's like, oh, they've added a couple guys, but it's their forgettable moves. The Cowboys have done nothing outside of Eric Kendricks.

That is the one thing that they've done. Eric Kendricks doesn't move the needle for you in 2024? So you still need multiple starters along the offensive line if you're the Cowboys. multiple starters that somewhere along the way, hopefully in this draft, you're going to have to find those guys. You lost depth in the secondary. You lost depth along the offensive line. You can make an argument that they still need another receiver

somewhere along the way here. So I wanted to ask you this because you covered the Cowboys for years. You know that team extremely well. Am I missing something here? Like the way that they've gone about this spring, is there some hidden plan to all of this that I just don't grasp? Can I give you my most cynical answer before we have a more good faith conversation? So here's why I disagree that this isn't a big draft for the Cowboys.

At least not all of them. It's a huge draft for Mike McCarthy. His job's on the line. It's a huge draft for Dak Prescott. He's in the final year of his contract. He's trying to prove to people that he can win in the playoffs. It's a huge draft for Will McLeigh, the vice president of player personnel because he's got a reputation at stake. he's very good at his job,

but obviously you're only as good as your last draft. All of that's true. The difference is the guys who make the ultimate call are Jerry and Stephen Jones, and they own the team, and no matter how well or poorly this goes, they'll be here next year,

and the year after that and the year after that. So it takes the pressure off when you know that getting this wrong doesn't ultimately matter, at least not for them. I mean, they'll fire everybody else, but then they'll be right back in those chairs the next year. So I feel like I owe it to cowboy fans to say that because that's the situation where

that's the reality every year. It does like it feels like that matters to me because like we can have all those conversations and they're true, but it doesn't fundamentally change things the way that it might in other cities where it's like if we fuck this up, we're all out of here. We're packing boxes this time next year. That won't be the case for the guys who ultimately. run the draft. Now, having said all of that, no, I don't think you're missing anything. I think the cowboys are in love with flexibility. They are in love with not having to be committed, pot

committed to something, which is ironic because I know Jerry Jones used the phrase all in earlier this year, but I think the cowboys are afraid of being pot committed to something in the sense of like, well, if we do this, then there's no going back. And I think that's why the DAC saga has drawn out as long as it has. I think that's why they've been reluctant to make a decision on that each time that they've had to. I think that's why, you know, they had an opportunity to bring back some of their, you know, more expensive players, whether it's Tyron Smith, things like that.

And I just, I think they are saving things in their back pocket. Again, because Jerry and Stephen know that they're going to be their next. next year and they're like well if this blows up in our face we don't want to have to pay for the ramifications for this longer than we have to and i think the the chatter you're hearing coming out of dallas right now is that they're backed up against the financial wall you know they they built the wall thank you robert thank you i was going to say it but i appreciate you said that they my brothers in christ you did this this this is how you constructed it this is what you wanted it to be, whether that's the restructures, whether it, whether it's waiting as long as you did to sign

back. I mean, I just, I can't get over. And like I said, I mean, the cowboys are our firm that they're like, we're out of money. We have pushed this as far as we can, which I'm not a cap expert. I'm not going to pretend that I am. But I refuse to buy that when we see the shenanigans that the New Orleans Saints get up to every year. I just, I don't buy that anybody has ever pushed it as far as they can. I just, it's just not, I don't, I don't think it's true. And on top of that, it's just a lack of foresight. If you, you cannot go into, DAC has a $55 million cap hit right now.

They didn't touch it before a free agency. So even if they have ended up coming to an extension with him, you couldn't use any of that money to add players when it would have mattered. And I know winning free agency isn't the most important thing. But the other teams that you're competing against, the teams that are trying to win the NFC, they're adding players. They're adding pieces.

They're actively trying to get better. You have not done that. So the 55, million dollar cap it for DAC this year. That is 21 and a half percent of the salary cap. Mahomes led the league last year at 16 and a half percent. No player in the past 10 years has accounted for more than 20 percent of the cap. Only one other guy has cracked 19 percent since 2015. That was Jimmy Garoppel in 2018. And if you remember that, the Niners front-loaded his contract because they were in such rebuild mode that they weren't paying any way.

one else. So even the one example that's in the same stratosphere as what DAC would take up is for a specific reason that actually had a solid plan behind it. What they have done with this and letting it go as far as it has, they cannot build a real team if you're going to let him sit there on that cap it. So I just don't understand how it's justifiable in any way. the other thing too and the and uh i mean the deck the deck thing has been going on since 2018 it's it's exhausting at this point and like i get i get the you're you're totally right about the lack of foresight and about how it's come to this to where he's just he owns them in every way imaginable in terms of like the leverage that he has over them but even like you can just look for

simple fixes like okay just leave dac alone and so all right we're we're here with dack and that's just the state of things. What about the fact that CD Lamb is playing out the fifth year of his contract, despite having been an all pro two seasons ago? Like he was an all pro in 2022. They had 15 months to get a deal done with a guy who has been amazing every year of his career. And all they got to do is give CD the bag. And he would have five or whatever years left on his deal that you can prorate that money out, do all of the fun accounting tricks to give yourself space, but he remains unsigned and is heading for a contract year. I don't think they're going to let CD walk.

That's not my point. But a guy who has, he screams that he should be a foundational piece of your team and he should be under contract as soon as humanly possible is about to play out the fifth year of his contract. Why? Why is that a thing? $17 million cap it. He's paying on a $17 million cap it

because they did not come to any sort of extension. This reminds me of what happened with DAC, where they waited until Russell Wilson signed that contract before they did their deal with DAC, and they could have saved how many millions of dollars if they just would have done it a year earlier. And the CD Lamb thing is in a similar spot because if I'm CD Lamb,

I'm waiting until Justin Jefferson signs that deal because I want something in that ballpark. Right now, the top of the market is $30 million, and even that money is actually a little bit fake. if you look at the Tyree Kill and Devante Adams deals. As soon as Justin Jefferson signs his contract, that 30 million plus wide receiver number, that's no longer fake.

And if I'm C.D. Lamb, I'm asking for the exact same thing. And if you're the Cowboys, just do it sooner rather than later so that Justin and Jamar's deals are bigger. I don't, I mean, yeah, it's the same thing they did with that. The Cowboys sign two types of deals. They sign deals early

when guys are willing to slot in, below the top of the market and they're just happy to get the deal. That's what happens with Jalen Smith. That's what happens with Trayvon Diggs last year. That's what happened with Lyle Collins back when he got his big extension with the Cowboys. Or they play hardball and drag it out to some sort of deadline in which there is always drama. And then they wind up paying what we all thought they were going to pay anyway. That's what happened with Dak.

That's what happened with Zeke Elliott. That's what happened with DeMarcus Lawrence. It's looking like that's what's going to happen with CD. Why they keep doing it, I couldn't hope to tell you. But again, the lack of foresight leads them into a position where they're like, oh, we don't have any money. I'm like, yeah, it's true in the most literal sense. But whose fault is that?

Like, I mean, it's not mine, brother. Like, come on. Like, you've got to think ahead of time. And so, yeah, I mean, so now, I mean, if you just want to look at it, very literally, the Cowboys need to find like two plus starters in this year's draft probably. I mean, I assume Tyler Smith's going to kick out to left tackle. So maybe or maybe you draft a blue chip left tackle in the first round of the draft, but you need help at center.

You lost your starting center. If Tyler moves, you might need a guard. You lost a lot of your defensive line depth to Washington. You lost half of your free agents to Washington. thanks to Dan Quinn. As of right now, you know, Stefan Gilmore is still sitting out there. I think they can get by at cornerback with Diggs and Duran Blan, but you'd probably like another one.

You as of right now don't have a truly proven running back. You could use another receiver. Did I mention everything? Defensive tackle, even, I mean, they did draft Mazi Smith last year, but it's hard to feel good about what's there at defensive tackle. It's, I heard you say this. I am an avid listener. they're not, they're not going to be better than last year.

I just, I don't see how it's possible barring a miracle, like barring a Micah Parsons type of situation where, remember, they traded away from Micah Parsons. They were like, oh, we'll get you at 12 instead of 10. So like, before we assign them all of this genius, and they are, the one thing they do is they draft like banshees, like they're really good at it. but even still there's a lot of luck involved. So don't come at me like, oh, we'll just get our next micah in the draft. I hope you're right, because that's what it's going to take.

And that's why they have a lot of stake in this year's draft. Because in order to be better than they were last year, they are going to need to hit a monstrous home run with the picks that they have. It's going to have to be the likes of which we've never seen. I mean, seriously, like what, pick 24. It's like pick 24, pick 57, and pick 90s. whatever. It's it's not enough, Robert. And it gives me great consternation. And I just, I don't, I don't know where it's all going. And then you think about like,

if they're not, if they're not better. And let's even, you know, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they're still probably good enough to make the playoffs. Are they good enough to get past any of the teams they have been unable to get past? Yeah, I'm not going to talk about them until January. That's kind of where I am. The, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the thing is frustrating to me. Like, like, I just don't understand. it. I think that they've made so many missteps. That's why I'm willing to talk about it now. When the season starts, I don't care how good they look from weeks one through 18. I just don't care. Just wake me up when it's time to talk about the Cowboys or watch them in the playoffs.

It is, it's the most frustrating thing. It really, I'm so, I'm tired of the, the Albert Einstein thing about doing the same thing over now. I hate that quote. I don't want to use that quote, but like, just what are we, what are we doing? And why? haven't we pivoted or learned from any of the frustrations of the last i mean you could say 27 years but even really like it's been a decade that they've been doing it this way with will mcleay running the draft and being very reluctant to spend in free agency and it hasn't gotten them anywhere tangible it hasn't a really the only place it's gotten them is that people like me get on podcast and say damn they're good at drafting cool that's awesome but i think

Cowboy fans everywhere are sick of that. And it doesn't seem like the Cowboys get that message. Like they don't, it's hard to look at what they're doing and say that they care about the perception of them. I think that's absolutely right. And I'm just glad you got to be. I kind of blacked out right there.

That's what I wanted, though. I wanted you to be the one to say all of this because you understand that team, you worked for that team, you covered that team for years. It comes with a little bit more weight than me sitting here and bitching about the Cowboys. So thank you very much.

I was happy to help. David Hellman, really appreciated my friend. Let the people know where they can check out the work that you are doing all the time. I appreciate that. Yeah, I mean, we do our thing on the NFL and Fox podcast. You can find us wherever you got this podcast, Spotify, Apple Podcasts. We have a YouTube channel talking all things NFL, NFL on Fox, all throughout the offseason, all through the season. and yeah, any follows, any subscriptions, any reviews, we would really appreciate it.

So thank you. Please go check it out, guys. And thank you very much for listening to this podcast. We will be back tomorrow. Me, Nate, and Dane are talking about the past catchers in this year's draft. We're going to talk about the top 10 guys. We're going to talk about some gems that may be available a little bit later in the draft. We're going to talk about some guys that Nate and Dan are just a little bit further away on than some of the other consensus looks.

Really, really fun show on Taft, you guys. So please come back and check that out. For now, that is all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was The Athletic Football Show.