The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Breaking: 49ers trade up to pick 3, then the Dolphins secure pick 6 from the Eagles

Episode Date: March 26, 2021

Robert Mays is joined by The Athletic's Mike Sando of the Football GM podcast to react to the breaking news of the 49ers jumping up to pick 3, then the Dolphins trading back into the top 10 after flipping picks with the Eagles. What kind of ripple effect will the moves have on the league and the teams involved?Get all-access coverage at The Athletic for $1 a month at theathletic.com/footballshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays and joining me for a very special reaction episode today. It's my good buddy, Mike Sando. Mike, how are you? I'm doing well, Robert. We actually scheduled this right after the trade of the four diners made. And then there was another big trade between the, what, 20 minute period?

I mean, I don't even know if it was 20 minutes. This is fantastic. This is the exact type of. of reason that I love this job. Reacting to this sort of stuff is the most fun we ever have in this business. And who knows what's going to happen in the 20 minutes that we're recording this podcast. So it is currently 1251 Central Standard Time on Friday. The dolphins traded with the Niners with the third and 12 picks. If we get any of these details wrong, I apologize. There's a lot of numbers and picks flying around here. But what we know as of right now,

the Miami Dolphins have moved back from three to 12. And the Niners, have moved up from 12 to 3. And to do that, the Niners gave up two future first round picks in 2022 and 22 and 23 and a third round pick to make that move. The Dolphins then moved from 12 up to 6 and traded away one of those future first round picks to the Eagles who moved back from 6 to 12. So that is what we currently know. I hope all of those details are right.

Where do you want to start with this, Mike Sandow? Let's start with the first one, which was San Francisco moving up, obviously with a deal with mind of it. But for San Francisco, this whole offseason has been, look, they've moved on mentally from Jimmy Garapolo. And then you get the pushback. Oh, Garapolo wasn't going to. They'd be fine with Garoppolo. And I've always sort of said. They keep trying to sell that, by the way.

They're still trying to sell that right now. And I think they would be if nothing else they could do worked out. They might go with him. But now all sorts of things come into play. Garoplo could be in New England, right? or somewhere else. But the 49ers' intentions now, let's start with that. The 40 Niners have the third pick in the draft for right now. What are their options? And I see a few. I mean, I see Deshaun Watson, too, in play for this. So I think there's a lot of things that could happen.

Let's start there. The Niners always made sense to me as a team that could make this sort of move. If you were looking at the chess board and the way it was aligned, first of all, I always thought Miami was a candidate to trade out there. When you're looking at the quarterbacks available in this draft, if you are sold on Tua, it makes all the sense in the world to trade that pick and stockpile more picks. We'll get to Miami's thinking in a second. But I always thought the Niners were a logical trade partner with one of these teams in the top 10. If you look at the roster they've built, the timeline that they're potentially on, how frustrating it's had to be for the last couple years for that brass and Shanahan to deal with the quarterback injuries and even when healthy, the quarterback

inconsistencies that have come with Jimmy Garoppolo, you can understand. why they were motivated to do this. And three, they're just ready. Their roster is ready. They have the type of team that with the right quarterback, I think, could do this. They have some holes. They're not as complete as they were two years ago

when they went to the Super Bowl on defense, but I still think the roster is set up to the point that they were a logical team to make this sort of aggressive move. So from both the Dolphins perspective and the Niners perspective, this makes sense to me. I understand why both teams would feel this is a mutually best.

beneficial move for each of that. Yes, also in a division where the Rams made a move for Matthew Stafford. And we can debate whether or not Stafford's this much better than Gough. But if you're Jed York and the owner of the 49ers, you're looking, you're watching this world in this division, you're going to shoot. We know Seattle has Wilson and it's probably going to have him this year. Kyler Murray's come in in Arizona and we'll see what he's going to become, but he gives them upside. And he's going, where's our upside? I can't even stand the field. So maybe there's a sense of, you know, we need to do something. You've got to move boldly. They weren't. They had the top three pick in 2017 and screwed it up.

Took Solomon Thomas, could have had Deshaun Watson, could have had Patrick Mahomes, probably happy they didn't have get Mitch Rubisky, but they've had their chance to swing on a quarterback and didn't do it. So now they're doing it. And I like the fact that they're doing it. I mean, I think you've got to get better at that position. This is the class to do it in. This is the year.

This is the time. They gave up a lot. But if they find their guy, they're never going to think about this again. That's the problem of going from 12 to 3 and not going from 25 to 10 like the Texans and the Chiefs did to go get Watson in Mahomes in 2017. Instead of one future first round pick, it's two. It's a big, big price to pay. But if Trey Lance or Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, and I don't want to speculate as to which it is, I don't know enough about the quarterbacks to think about how they would fit into Shanahan's offense,

whoever ends up being. If one of those guys hits, you will never think about those two first round picks ever again. And I think that has to be their mindset going into this. Now, you did not get excited when I mentioned the possibility of Watson. And I can understand why. I mean, I think obviously he has other stuff going on, but he may not in the future. I mean, that situation could clear up for all any of us knows. And then yet, I think, I don't know that he's the ideal, you know, Shanahan guy that he's always wanted for his offense.

But does that peak your interest at all that if the, heck, the Texans can get their own pick back? Does that intrigue you at all if they end up thinking that Watson's just not going to be there and they want to move on. Sure. I think that that makes sense. The only downside to that would be now you're in a position to draft a quarterback. When they weren't, when they were at 12, Watson might have been their only avenue with that 12th overall pick.

You'd be willing to take on his contract, which I know is reasonable considering his talent. But now you have a chance to draft a rookie quarterback on a rookie quarterback contract and really kind of start that clock and get the financial benefits to come with that, everything else. One of the reasons I thought Watson made sense for that. them is because they weren't in range to get one of these guys. Now that they've made the move to be in range to get one of these guys, I think it has to change the thinking a little bit, at least should. And it's part of the reason that for all the kind of smoke screening they've done

here in the last hour about how Jimmy is our guy, which has been tweeted about multiple different sources associated with the Niners, it still feels like them carrying him at $26 million with the other expensive guys they have on the roster and how they want to build. That's probably not going to happen. And I think that even though Watson is a significant upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo, it's still that veteran quarterback contract that you don't have to carry if you really like one of these guys, whether it's Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, or we know Kyle Shadahan is a guy who likes Kirk Cousins a lot. I mean, his taste of quarterbacks may be a little bit different than ours. Does that mean somebody who is a quick decision maker, quick trigger man that is just a

pocket passer like Mac Jones is somebody that they like? That is something that remains to be seen. No matter who the quarterback is, though, we know he will be coming a lot cheaper than Deshawn Watson would be for the next three or four years. Yep. And I just was looking over here at my other screen. So basically, if you were to trade for Deshaun Watson, you're basically just getting the base salaries. And I'm looking to see if there's a ton of bonuses. It looks like it might be about a five year, $125 million. It'd be about what you're getting them for, which, oh, okay, that's what they got Jimmy for. It's an equal slot. Yeah. So I think a lot of things would have to happen for that to happen. And I'm not predicting it, but it was just something that came to

my mind as everybody focuses on the draft. But I think we agree that you're doing this to get a quarterback that's not going to be Jimmy Garoppolo. And by saying you like, Jimmy, that's fine. Maybe you can get more for him, you know, as you try to move him. But there's no way they could really count on, bank on Jimmy as their starter because he misses so many games. And when the rest of the roster is this ready, I think that's why you want somebody else. You want certainty. You want somebody you can rely on, both from a talent perspective and from an availability perspective. Is there a market for Jimmy Garapolo right now? I mean, that's part of the problem with what they could get for him is that a lot of these seats are filled. Yeah. Yeah, no,

I'm with you on that. And I was having this discussion with somebody on a team earlier today, like if you're New England right now and you've got Cam Newton who, you know, let's face it, isn't great at this stage, but you've got him for almost nothing. And are you really looking to add Jimmy Garoppolo under his current contract? Maybe you do an extension. with him. I think we can't take for granted that just because he was in New England, and by the way, they were willing to get rid of him, that they'd just be clamoring to get him. But it would make a lot of sense to me. He's been there. They're familiar with him. They have other cheap options if they were to need him. But would you give up if you were in England?

Would you give up a round pick? You'd have to give up lower than the second you got before. I think there's a zero percent chance if a team trades for him. He plays on his current deal. Yeah, it would have to be something. A $24 million based salary. That would get renegotiated, I would assume. But it's also why I wouldn't be surprised if the end result of this is just him getting released. I agree.

He has a no trade clause as well. Yeah, and he exactly. And he doesn't have to play along with the next team. He can decide to take his chances. I think you're right, though, that the market, there's only so many teams, right? And other teams that have had chances or needed quarterbacks weren't sitting there waiting for Jimmy Garoplo, right? I mean, no one's been talking about all Garoppolo could be available.

So I think there's a market, but it's probably not a robust market. If you're playing in the Garoppolo sandbox, I think you'd almost rather be in the Dalton one for half the price or James Winston or whoever these teams are. And I think that's an interesting just overall theoretical conversation we can have about the midterer quarterback contracts and which kind of guys you're chasing. But I just don't think Jimmy Garapolo, 24 million is fungible for anyone. That includes the Niners. And that's part of what must have motivated this thinking. Yep, I agree. So if you go to Miami's side of this, I think it makes all the sense in the world.

If you just want to accumulate picks and you feel like, so let's say from the 3 to 12, the 3 to 12 even made sense to me. Because if you look at how this might fall, right, we assume that quarterbacks will go with the top three picks, especially now. I think that there's a world where quarterbacks go with the top 4 picks, whether that's Atlanta picking a quarterback or another team saying, if they're not going to pick one, that pick is available to us. That is, we can go get that.

That is, we can get our guy. We can make sure we get the fourth one. Where that's Carolina, Denver, we'll get to those teams in a second. And then you have, who would you want? The tackles, maybe Pente Soule, Rishan Slater, the guys that are up there, a position that is deeper in this class than typically would be in others. Or the past catchers, you know, can you get, if you want Devante Smith, that's who you really wanted. He might be available at 12 the same way he was at 3.

Now you were able to add two first round picks. That thinking lasted about 10 minutes. they were able to get back, get back to six. I mean, it was thinking that I totally, it made sense to me, it tracked in my mind, it lasted for 10 minutes. Now they moved back up to six. But even that, let's let's, let's sort of interrogate that thinking a little bit. Now, if we assume there are quarterbacks going one, two, three, four, now it's a two

man race from, and with five and six. Did they love two players that were in the non-quarterback tier and said, if we come away with either one of those guys, that's what we want. out of this. Because if that's the case, then what they essentially did was move from three to six for a future first round pick and a future third round pick, which if you look at the other trades for that exact movement in recent years, the one I have in mind is the Colts from three to six.

If you look at the trade value associated with the two second round picks the Colts got and a mids tier first round pick and a third, it's pretty much the same. So I think if you're Miami, it's still a really good move to go back from three to six and pick up those picks. Yeah, and Rob, there may be four guys they're happy with. You know, if you're in a draft that's going to have quarterbacks go maybe one, two, three, or whatever, four, you know, you're going to have, you're basically, if you're out of that market, then the sixth pick is the second pick in the draft or whatever, right? Exactly. To you for all intentsive purposes.

And look, I'm not sold onto being necessarily better than these guys, but they're in this predicament, right? They just took them. They're not going to move on from them after one year. They're hopeful, and they're not. willing to tear that up and go in the direction with a new quarterback. So I think it makes perfect sense to be where they're at. They're still going to get, they're going to get a top three non-quarterback in the draft.

Well, that's what they were going to be in that range anyway. Exactly. I'm with them on it. I think if you look at what they've turned, I think Adam Schaefter tweeted this, like what they turned Laramie Tensel into. It's basically like, is it four first round picks, something like that? It's insane.

I mean, this is, I, if I were trying to rebuild the team, they have handled it in the exact way that I think that you should handle it. And we can say anything we want about that third overall pick is only there because the Texans were bad and everything else. This is why you trade for future first round picks. Did we think the Texans would be this bad with DeShon Watson? Absolutely not. But by giving yourself this chance by this line of thinking and this system of operations,

this is the potential outcome. Even if it's not the most likely, it's always on the table. I mean, that is the thing. That's why I think that you have to commend what they've done, even if they got a couple lucky breaks along the way. Yeah, I think that the distinction is they didn't give up a great player. That was the thing. So, like, giving up Laramie Tunsell, he's a good player.

He's a good player. But he's not, like to me, I would still rather have Jalen Ramsey than the two first round picks, even if one of them happened to be higher. I would still do that. I still like the known elite player to me who's young is worth more than the two. first round picks to me. But in the case of Laramie Tunsell, he's not Jalen Ramsey to me. He's good. It's a good player, good starters. So they came out the best possible case scenario out of that and didn't give up a great player. What's interesting to me is, let's say Tua is a fine

year this year to the point where we'll give him a third year. Now in 2023, you have another first round pick. You have two again. Now you have ammunition. If you feel like you need to in 23, go get your guy in that class, you can. That's the entire point of this. The entire point of accumulating this asset, these assets is flexibility. It's not painting yourself into a corner with the way that you have to build your team or the way that you have to plan at certain positions. It's giving yourself the options to move in whatever direction you want to. That's why draft picks and cap space and all of this stuff is worth having. If you're the dolphins in two years and you have a decent amount of cap space and you have an extra first round pick.

And there's a disgruntled player or somebody that doesn't fit into a team's budget in the way that DeForest Buckner or Stefan Diggs or whoever that was, that is available to you now. It's just about having as many avenues to improve your team as possible. And the Dolphins have done that at every single turn over the last two years. And they still have the quarterback they wanted in the draft last year, right? Yes. They still got that.

And if it doesn't work, that's okay. Now you have ways to get another one possibly if you ever have to do that. That's the thing. It's just being able to pivot and having the resources to pivot if the moment comes. I still think they probably could have kept the first round pick and stayed at 12 and gotten a really good player. But if they really love one of those guys and they think we have to come away with one of these guys, also at a certain point, the picks have to turn into players. While the flexibility is great, you have to get the right guys.

And if their mind, if they're trying to accelerate themselves a little bit and say, to me, the certainty of Pene Soule over whatever tackle or receiver would be there at 12 is worth the first round pick in 2022, the one that we didn't even have 20 minutes ago, I can completely understand that thinking, even if on a spreadsheet, it probably is better to stay at 12 and keep the first rounder. Yep. No, I'm with you. I think they come out pretty good. And we'll see who they take at six. And maybe they won't even be at six. Maybe by the end of the day or next week, they'll be picking somewhere else. But I'm with you.

I think it works out well for them. The team that was at six and is now at 12 is the Philadelphia Eagles. And again, if you're Philadelphia, you're in such a hole. I think in a lot of ways, them sitting at six in this draft was one of the biggest mysteries of this draft, which direction they were going to go, how they were going to do this, just the financial pit that they've fallen into. How are they going to try to climb out of it and rebuild and everything else? And I think that moving from 6 to 12 and saying we're still going to get a really good player. And now we have an extra first round pick to try to rebuild this thing as we move into the next era of whatever this franchise looks like. I think it tracks for them as well.

Takes them out of no man's land a little bit where they're, okay, is a quarterback going to be there? Are you going to love them more than they like who they've got or somebody else they can get? It brings some clarity to them, which is nice for us. I still don't know that I love where they're at. but oh it's not good i don't think anyone should love where they're at but this is i think the sort of move you make when you're trying to dig yourself out of that hole yeah absolutely and so i like of these three teams i'm not so like i'm going san francisco wow this is interesting you know i'm leaning up in my seat here a little bit i'm going you know in that division i mean

there's teams that are willing to do stuff you know i mean there's no one sitting still the only guy sitting still is Schneider and he's the guy who's always active, right? But he's got his quarterback. So I think that's interesting. For Miami, I'm going, I'm kind of leaning back on my chair and I'm going, that's pretty smart. Miami, pretty good deals here. Look at what you've turned some of these players into. Okay, not bad. For Philly, I'm going, yeah, okay, you know, that makes sense. You know, I'm not really against it, but I don't feel like there's a momentum with them, you know? No, because I think that they should be moving at a snail's pace at this point. There's no quick fixes.

And that's, it's funny. I think if you look at the three timelines, I'd get them all. Phillies is slow. It's going to be a long process to get out of where they are right now. The Niners, it's boom or bust. Now is the time we want to get it done. Miami is somewhere in the middle. And I like the fact that they're somewhere in the middle.

I enjoy that the dolphins looked at the team they had last year. And their takeaway is we're going to give to a little bit of time, but we're also going to give ourselves flexibility. We're going to move, even going from 12 to 6 and saying, we need a star now, but it was still we're trading from 3 to 6. I just think that they've split the difference in a way I really appreciate and just shows a clarity to their thinking and process here that is not surprising when you consider what they've done over the last couple of years.

There's a decisiveness to them, isn't there, and just the way they do things like they'll just sit Ryan Fitzpatrick in the middle of the year. don't have to explain it. Or you know what? After one year, they're like, Kyle Van Nua, you know, we had him at 12 million or whatever. We think he's kind of a $6 million player right now. You know what? People can call it a mistake. We'll just move on. And then he gets $6 million for somebody else or whatever. So they will make decisions. It's interesting. I have no idea if they're going to work out. But they are operating with their own set of principles right now. And I think that that should be commended. So the other thing I wanted to

hit before we get out of here. The team's not involved with these deals who are still affected by these deals. And I think there are a couple of them. The team that really jumps out to me in that conversation is Carolina. Because if they really wanted one of these guys, they were the logical team to me. All right, eight to three is doable. We can do that if we want to. Now, that number three pick that I always thought was the landing spot for a trade up gets erased. It no longer exists. So the landscape of the top 10 for team like the Panthers for a team like the Broncos. If they really wanted their guy, it looks a lot different now than it did this morning.

But what's interesting about this to me is the second pick is still there. So the 49ers get to three. It doesn't mean they get the second best quarterback. It doesn't mean they have a choice of two. So that's another thing. You really think the Jets would be willing to not take a quarterback there and keep going with Sam Darnold? Well, I'm saying that it's possible.

I mean, are we saying there's no way? So the 49ers then to get to three, they're just absolutely fine with whoever the third guys. Because I thought 10 minutes ago, I thought there was two guys that people really liked the best in this draft, right? Well, maybe, who knows? What have the 49ers guaranteed themselves? The third best quarterback, or the third quarterback taken.

Okay. If you think it's a three-quarterback draft, then maybe you're okay with doing that, that we have no idea about their thinking. And you would assume, that they would have called Robert Sala at two already and explored, hey, how do we get there? That's what I would assume. Or maybe that's still happening.

Yeah. It's easier to move from three to two than it is from 12 to two. If you're Carolina and David Tepper's the owner, we know that he's been, he wants, you can read between the lines. I mean, the guy wants them to go get a quarterback. What could you still do if you wanted one of those top three guys? Is it you're not going to probably get to Jacksonville and you're not going to get to San Francisco, obviously? is there still a possibility with the Jets? Maybe not.

Maybe they're going to take Zach Wilson and the 4-9ers are fine with whoever the third guy is and we move on to draft date. That could happen. I just, if you're the Jets, it's just a perfect opportunity to start over. Not only with a fresh face for a new regime, not only with a fresh contract, but it just in every single way. I just think it's a perfect chance to hit the reset button. I mean, Sam Donald is, Sam Donald is in his fourth season, correct? Yeah, 18, 19, 20, 21, yeah. So next year would be his fifth year option.

You'd have to a fifth year option. Suddenly he's counting 25. It's, so the fifth year option, as it currently sits right now on Spottrack, the fifth year option is $18.9 million. So that's a deal. And his cap hit this year is $9.8 million as the third overall pick. So he basically becomes their Garoppolo if they do that. That's exactly right.

And that's, I just would never want to play that game. Yeah. And, but the other part of this now, same conversation we had about Garapola. What's the market for Sam Darnold? If the Niners were thought to be a team that had some interest in Sam Darnold, which had been reported, now that's probably off the table. So we, we have one fewer suitors for Sam Darnold. Where does he wind up? Does his trade market suddenly evaporate to the point that you can't get anything for him?

It's all of this stuff, I think, is worth considering. But I still with the Jets, just believe. leave that this is just the cleanest way to start over, to step into a new era, all of that stuff, by just taking the guy you want it to and taking what you can for Sam Darnold. Maybe it's a team, maybe it's August. And the Steelers decide, you know, the Dwayne Haskins thing, that's not going to work out for us. We're going to take a swing because we need a succession plan for Ben Rothersberger and they trade for San Donald, something like that.

I just think that they can hang on to him, but right now there aren't that many suitors for him. How about this? How about the 49ers aren't done? And now they're going to call Robert Salon and get the two. They get their Zach Wilson or whoever they want. And maybe they throw in a player that Robert Salos really likes from the 49ers that he wants to have on his team. And maybe they draft whoever the other quarterback is or maybe they trade out with Carolina or something and go from there. I think we're seeing this movement as sort of like an earthquake, those plate tectonics. It's like there's going to be aftershocks. I think we're, we're analyzing this in motion. And so I wouldn't rule out even the Ford Niners moving again. Yeah, I would neither. If they love one of those two guys.

And again, we didn't have any sort of insight on the Niners thinking as to how much they loved this quarterback class two hours ago. So I don't think any of us can speak with certainty about what's going to happen next or where they're thinking is now, all of that. So I don't think it's going to be the last move in the top 10. I knew it was going to be a wild month. I assumed most of the craziness would start after March 26th, but I'll take it. Nice little fun bit of news on a Friday afternoon here. It's unbelievable. It's great as fun.

I mean, I think the off-season is at least as fun of this season. So the off-season is more fun than the second half of the season for most teams. The last time this happened, it was the Titans and the Eagles and the Eagles and the Browns. That's the last time this happened. And I, this group, first of all, the quarterbacks are better. I mean, I remember that back to that year. No one thought that Jared Goff was the best player in that draft.

And I don't think anyone thought Carson wants to the second best, but quarterbacks get pushed up. In this draft, I think the players are better, the quarterbacks they're chasing. And I think the San Francisco 49ers, as currently constructed, are a much more interesting and better team than either the Rams or the Eagles were at that exact point. So I think that's why this is a little bit more fun, a little bit more intriguing than even those similar moves were a few years ago. I'm with you 100%. I love it. I think this is fun.

And I can't wait to get back onto Twitter and see how people are dealing with the Garapolo and how he fits in Sam. We've been off for 28 minutes. Literally anything could have happened in the 28 minutes. We made me back, everybody. Since I looked at this. All right, guys, that's all we got. Please enjoy your weekend.

Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast. platform of choice. Keep checking the athletic. David Lombardi and Matt Barrow's are 49ers writers. I'm sure we'll be hitting this from every single angle. Josh Tolentino, our Dolphins writer, all of the guys at Birds with Friends. I'm sure they'll be crushing this.

I know Shield's writing about it right now. A dollar a month for the next six months is the promotion that's going. That's worth it just to keep up with this alone, let alone everything else that's happening on the athletic. So please go check it out. We will be back on Tuesday with a guest. I am very excited about to continue. you are draft coverage.

Hopefully the rest of the football world does not burn down in the meantime. If it does, you know we'll be on tap to figure out how to handle it next. Thank you for listening. We'll talk to you guys later. This was the Athletic Football Show.