The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Breaking down the Bills and Browns defense and Daniel Jones’ development with Nate Tice + Sheil Kapadia makes good on his bets and his Week 5 picks

Episode Date: October 8, 2021

The Bills defense faces their first big test of the season against the Chiefs in Week 5. Robert Mays and Nate Tice kick off the “Friday Five” by discussing what they are looking to see from Buffalo on SNF. They also talk about Daniel Jones’ development, how the Browns will defend Justin Herbert, why they aren’t sold on the Bengals just yet and the 49ers offense with Trey Lance under center. Then, Sheil Kapadia makes good on his bets with a Terrible Towel and looks to redeem himself with his Week 5 picks.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. The presenting sponsor for today's episode of the athletic football show is Visa, a network working for everyone. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Today is Friday, October 8th. Fun show for you guys today, as always on Fridays, Shil Kapati is going to be joining us a little bit later to do our pick segment. This one was fun because Shiel got his lukewarm lock of the week wrong last week, so he had to wave a terrible time. above his head for 20 straight minutes.

We have it on video. He hit himself in the face at one point. Made my week. There's nothing else that can happen that can top this. But we're going to try because I'm so happy to welcome my good buddy, Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, man? Doing great. Another Friday, apparently.

Did you check your phone what the date is when we start the show? Is that what that was? That's what I always do. I thought so. I'm starting to pick up on that. That's what you're doing right at the start of every show. Because I always forget that I say the date is. now because we do them every day, so I want a marker when people are listening.

I know how hard time zones are. I can imagine dates and. Oh, my God. Because we record the show the day before it runs. So it's not today. It's tomorrow. Listen, I've never been able to understand podcast time. Great Rams.

Hey, it was a great Ram C-Hawks game last night. Woo, can you believe that? That kicks off in two hours. As we always do on Fridays, we're doing the Friday five today. We do five things, a matchup, a player, a concept and idea heading into the weekend that we're excited about. We wanted to focus today on some stuff that we haven't really discussed on the show so far. You know, there's been a lot of Rams talk, a lot of Chargers talk, a lot of Cardinals talk, because those have been the best teams in the NFL so far, teams that are winning, teams we find compelling.

We wanted to dig into some stuff that hasn't gotten a lot of attention so far because they haven't played a lot of good opponents, because we've been waiting a little bit to see how real it is. Whatever the reason, we're digging into some stuff that hasn't gotten a lot of oxygen up to this point on the athletic football show. And we're going to start with the Bill's defense because they have a monster game on top against the Chiefs on Sunday night football. It does not get any better than this. I cannot wait to settle into this one on Sunday night. And this Bill's defense has been the best defense in the NFL statistically over the first four games. They are twice as good by EPA per play than any other defense in the league.

They also have played the worst schedule of offenses in the entire NFL. Football outsiders has them dead last at 32nd. It's not a surprise when the best quarterback they've played is Ben Rathesberger, which is usually historically, you'd be like, oh, okay. But then this year you're like, oh, okay. kind of frame Who do you legitimately think is playing the best of the quarterbacks that the bills have played? It's probably Taylor Heineke, right?

Because the four they've had are these, these the four quarterbacks, the bills have played this season. This version of this version of Ben Rothsburger. Yep. Jacoby Percette. Yep. Taylor Heineke and Davis Mills. It's Heineke. It is.

Yeah. And honestly, like, because we were like, okay, we're going to talk to Bill's defense. Me and you both do the same thing. We watch film. Usually I could, it's week four. I could, week five now, I could pick two games already. They're like, oh, this is a good opponent. Couldn't pick shitting it for this team.

It was like, I was grasping that straws trying to find like change. I went back to the Washington game. I did. That's what I did. I went back to the Washington game. I was like, this is the only thing I'm able to learn from rather than the driving rainstorm against Davis Mills. They were just abused, man.

It was, it was, uh, that was not a fun game. I felt, I felt for him. I felt for Davis Mills. I was like, that was rough. Like that is a not a very fun environment to go into. first week. So what you have to do at this stage of the season when you're talking about defenses like this is do your best to extricate the defensive performance from the competition.

It's very, very hard to do that. Even over the course of half seasons, 12 weeks, it's difficult to do that. I think really good examples recently, the 2019 Patriots are a very good example. They had terrible competition. They were dominating winning games by themselves. The Niners in 2019 faced a terrible slate of offenses for a good chunk of the season. It drives defensive performance in a lot of ways. So try to separate that can be a challenge.

But let's try. So let's start with where this Bill's defense differs from the unit we might have watched last year. Because last year's Bill's defense was the first one in the Sean McDermott era that was a little bit underwhelming. This had been a top five unit for the most part since he got there. Last year started very, very slow, had some injuries to guys like Matt Milano, and they came on stronger at the end. But by the time we get to the AFC championship game, they clearly just don't have the horses, right? They did not have the guys to compete with that Chiefs team.

So I think now with the Chiefs on the docket again, where do we think this unit is better and where do we think they're more equipped to deal with Kansas City than they might have been at the end of last season? The name you already brought up, Matt Milano, is one of the playing awesome. So well, statistically and I test. And it's tangible. Him and Edmonds have a really nice synergy together, kind of the runaround linebacker and then the big thumper type, even though Edmonds is a little more athletic than that. But, you know, same body styles, I guess. It is kind of funny.

And I, watching the Manning cast and Peyton Manning had a quote when he was talking about preparing for the Patriots and going like, hey, we treated them like a divisional opponent because we knew we were going to play them every year because we're always finished first. And then we might play in the playoffs. Kind of what's happening with these chiefs of bills teams. Yep. They played twice last year. They're playing again this year.

It's like, okay, we're starting to, they're going to build on it. I love that, though. That's my, I love that. It's so fun when you have these just points of reference. You can go back and watch. I didn't go back and watch a ton of the AFC championship game just because I think, again, the personnel is different enough that they could have just an entirely different game plan. Outside of Milano, personnel-wise, where do you think have been the most substantial and

important changes that Buffalo has made? Up front, just getting, and it's not so much like, okay, one guy has come in and it's become like a star play. it's more like just it's a war of attrition they have like they just they play 80 guys yeah they just if you look at their snap counts it's like 52 percent 48 percent 38 percent 40 percent by design they've always believed in that as a method it is a good method if you if you have the bodies for it why wouldn't you like because how hard it is for an offensive line to stay fresh it's an eight play drive you know six play drive and all of a sudden you got four fresh bodies in there three

fresh bodies and they're all tangible players so not just guys go you know a scout a spell back for a running back that's like hey give him a blow we got to put them right back in it's like actual guys that are performing and i think that's the obvious improvement like you just watch them a mcdermit defense and a leslie fraser defense too is that you know what you're getting like you coverage wise i even watching it i don't even have to break it down but it's like every time they're not trying to trick you their their emphasis is on we're going to play really fast and really smart way every guy is going to be in the right spot at the right time you might beat us with team speed which spoilers the chiefs have.

But they're at least going to, they're not going to have any mental bust. And that's kind of what it has. And now when you just get really active in coverage too. Guys, their defensive backs are so active in coverage. Everyone's always, there's very,

no one's ever sitting there. No one has ever flat footed in a really good way. Everyone's trying to look to make a play or just sift somewhere else. If there's no one in their zone, like it's, it is a living, breathing thing when you watch them play right now.

I think that's what's cool about it. The eyes, everybody's eyes are really, really good. Like, you know, of course they got Trey White, but it's all these other guys. And like against Washington, against the 12 personnel, they're doing big nickel. And, you know, and they got Mike, uh, they got the big safety in there in the box and yada, yada, yada. I was about to say Michael Hyatt's not Michael Pius. Poyer. 21, Jordan Poyer. Poir, Poyer. Okay. I know that. I've known him for his career, but I just never have actually heard his last name said. Like I'm really bad. Because I read a lot, but I don't listen. You haven't ever, ever found that out. So I just make up words. So you should see me when I saw the first Harry Potter movie. I was like, that's how you say Hermione? But anyway, but like, but when they were going this big nickel, he got banged up.

Poyer got banged up. And so they put it at nickel. They wanted to stay nickel against base and sub against base. Some teams can live in this when you have a nice bodies. I mean, Chargers can do it. And you got during with James. You get all these guys that can just play that style. They played in 185 pound nickel Cameron Lewis, number 47.

he played so well. And he was fit and stuff up. He had a TFL where he knifed inside. The fact that they're playing this guy, I shouldn't say off the bench, but playing the guy that they don't really expect, but he kind of was. I think he was on practice squad to start the year. He played for him last year. But the fact that they can get this guy coming up playing snaps for him, tangible snaps.

I know it's a Texan's offense with Davis Mills, the Bills versus Mills massacre. But what it was was Cameron Lewis playing well speaks to the coaching staff and speaks to that unit that all of a sudden this guy comes in and not only just holds his own but makes tangible plus plus plays that kind of just speaks to them i that's what kind of sums up this unit i think it's a bunch of i i don't know i want to compare a one to one but it's a little bit how the cowboy's offense is where it's maybe i mean they have a little more star power um but it's more like hey it's good players in a good scheme that's well coached and so it's like this is the result of it it's maybe not the sexiest thing that you watch it's not the coolest blitzes i think they're they don't

seem to be blitzing that much. They do tie it up. Yeah. And they time it up though. Like they'll time it up on base downs and stuff like that. And so it's just like they're just well coached with a bunch of good, good smart players. That kind of sums it up for them.

And it's kind of funny that you mentioned. It's like some of these teams we're going to talk about this show is have they not played anybody or they have they. And it's kind of like that kind of sums them up. It's like I think it's a good unit that's got benefited from a weak opponent schedule. So it's like they're going from the shallow of the shallow ends where the water just barely comes up to your ankles. And now they're jumping into the 12-foot deep end playing Patrick Mahomes in this speed.

And I'm really curious what they go against. Remember last year in the regular season game, they played a bunch of soft coverages and the Chiefs, like 250, I think, odd rush. They had more rushing yards and passing yards, which is the Chiefs. That's kind of crazy to think about. Chiefs kind of won the game going away. Going to playoffs, they try to mix it up. Quarters, threes.

They rank man a little bit, a couple little pressures in there. And Mahomes just had his way with it. So I'm very curious what they lean to this game. Like we said, it's almost like a divisional matchup now. I think they watched what happened in the Super Bowl and were inspired by it. And obviously, the offensive line for the Chiefs is completely different now, right? Totally. But the Buck's game plan was outside of those one or two early kind of exotic pressures,

they played coverage behind it and rushed forward. That's what they did in that game. And that it worked because of the Chief's offensive line injuries and because of the talent they have up front. So they wanted to go out. and get edge rushers like we talk about to make quarterbacks edgy in the pocket. We want to just affect that space in the best way that we can with four. Rousseau has not been a star yet, Greg Rousseau, their first round pick.

But he has affected the game. He has been his length and just his overall presence matters. You combine that with Epinessa playing better, Jerry Hughes still being there. It's all those bodies that we talked about. The Toulouillet has been good. Yeah. He has given them something. He did not play last year.

Less reps. You know, it's LFTE's back. It helps these guys. And I think that Oliver has shown some juice. I mean, they have so many bodies they can throw with the problem. So if you look at it,

they blitz much more last year than they are. They're blitzing now. They're 19th in the NFL in blitz rate. That's also skewed from the first couple of games. They blitz the shit out of the dolphins with like defensive back blitzes. And they sent those at a high rate last year. That's a part of their identity because they have good blitzers, right? Like Hyde and Poir are good blitzers.

Both of those guys, it's so cool how they're interchangeable. Yeah. And it really lends to the way they can play defense because both of those guys can do a little bit of everything. That's why I stumbled up by words because I almost called Poir, you're Michael Hyde, because in my brain I always mix them up. It's very easy to do. I don't know why, but I do. So they have toned the blitzing back a little bit. They're 19th in blitz rate, but their second in pressure rate.

That's when you're cooking with gas. When you can start playing like that. And again, it's up against bad defense or bad offense. with bad offensive lines, but that still is where they wanted to be with this defense. They wanted to be able to affect the game of four and play coverage behind it, because those players are good on the back end.

White is just such an interesting corner because they play a lot of quarters still, like one of the highest rates in the league, but he plays it so aggressively that a coverage that has become more passive with the way that most teams are playing it, where it's that shell kind of dome quarters look. He's playing it like just sticky man-to-man coverage and beating that.

a lot of people and it's cool to watch and that's why i think them as a zone team it never feels passive it feels like they're always kind of dictating the action when you watch them play and that's what is different from them and a lot of other teams that play as much zone as they tend to and the other part of that is that they're disguising a lot more stuff this year they're playing a two high shell and i think 57% of their snaps compared to less than 50% last year and rotating which isn't the craziest thing in the world but it's it's it gives them an advantage because those safeties are interchangeable. It allows them to be harder for an offense to pin down. And I think that's exactly what you have to try to do

against Mahomes. So I don't think there's going to be anything crazy in this game. I think they're going to try to say, can this new front affect the game like we want them to? And can we just be a little bit hard to predict on the back end and lean on just the solid guys we have back there? Like even Levi Wallace and Taryn Johnson are playing pretty well. They just don't have many obvious holes at this stage. And can the new pass rush we have lift us in a way that it couldn't before? I think that's, that sounds simple,

but that's my assumption. And it speaks to their intelligence as a unit and their coachability, I guess, or how their coach is the disguise stuff, because I agree with you. They, they all know when to do it, if that makes sense. It's not one guy going like, oh, I'm going to, I'm going to hide and disguise.

And you see that with some smart safeties. They do that. It's the whole. shell. It's like everybody's shifted. Everyone's bumped down. It's like it reminds me of Vikings when they were cooking. Oh, yeah. Great call. Great call. Same kind of shells too, actually kind of funny. Yeah, but same stuff. That's that's a benefit of playing quarters type shells is to be able to interchange those guys, which we've talked about a million times. But it's, it's, it's what McDermott's defense is always where it was almost frustrating you go against because you're like,

they're in quarters. I know how to beat this. And I know what they're in every snap. And it's just like, When they were with the Panthers, it's like, it was quarters and three. And you're like, I know what this is. And it's like, they still squeeze it because everyone's so well coached. Then they know what the weaknesses are. They make it hard on you. And Mahomes is a totally different animal, of course. But it's like, it is cool to see.

I love watching well coached units, offense, defense or anything. And we talk about offense aligned, maybe not having like, okay, one star left tackle is not going to help the entire unit. But it's more about having the best five out there always. You know, that's kind of what this. That's what this defense kind of is in that version where there's no. totally agree glaring weakness so it's like all right yes you can't just abuse one thing over and over you have to play a good sound game plan for 60 minutes against this team and I think it's it's

cool to watch I like that good players good coaching it's a good unit I don't think they're the best defense in the league I don't think they will be over the course of the season because I do think they lack that upper echon star power outside of white and you know I do like think hide is really really good but I think that they're a very good defense that's all they need to be if the offense can hit the potential that we believe it can over the season. The encouraging part, if I were a Bills fan, is that the defense has been good enough to lift the offense up as they've struggled a little bit early in the season. That's what contenders look like.

Yes. And it's the same as the Browns right now. That's what contenders look like. When you have these teams that are so well-rounded that if one area of your team is lagging just a little bit behind, the rest can pick it up. And that's what Buffalo has looked like. That's why it's so cool. where this offense is not playing well, the winning game is 40 to nothing.

It doesn't matter if you're not playing against good teams. If you're beating 40 to nothing, that's what you're supposed to do. So while I don't think the defense is quite as good as it's looked, I think the team overall is going to be what this fan base expected and hoped it would be coming into the season. Absolutely. That's such a great point. And we talk about that when good units step up is also to get role players stepping up. Totally.

But that's what a good team happens is that all of a sudden, those fans go, oh, that's the, oh, that was the Poyer game. That was the Milano game. Like, we're all of a sudden, that's, that's, all of a sudden, it's like, oh, Josh Allen, he only threw one touchdown that game, but it was like, man, Milano, though, had a sack and two TFLs. Oh, my God, you know, straight. Oh, man, they tip that ball for a pick.

That's what, yeah, that's what a good team is. And that's such a great point. That's what the Lovie Bears looked like. That's what those, that's exactly what those teams are like, where it's like, that was a Briggs game. That was a Mike Brown game. That was a Thielman game. That was a Vashor game.

And this defense reminds me of that, honestly, because it isn't that exotic, right? It's like four man, four man front, two linebackers and like, we're just playing football. It's frustrating as an offense. It is. I can't imagine. It is. It's because when I was watching it, I was kind of like, oh, I wonder if they're doing anything different. And then you watch it, it's like, not really.

Nope. There isn't like funky fronts. Like they're just doing what they do, but they do it really well. And when you have guys playing at this level, that these are the results. All right. Let's get to somebody that has snuck up on us a little bit. And that's Daniel Jones. When we were prepping for the show this week, we were kicking around ideas.

And I was like, do you want to talk about Daniel Jones? And you're like, absolutely. Because you look at the numbers, and they're not blowing anybody away, right? Like, the Giants aren't the best offense in the league. The Giants are 14th in EPA per play passing the ball. They're not destroying things. They're not like lighting the world on fire. But when you compare that to where they were over the last two years,

In 2019 and 2020 combined, they were 30th. This was one of the worst offenses in football over Daniel Jones's first two seasons. And they did not marketly improve last year under Jason Garrett in his second year. So to go from being bottom of the barrel, the worst type of offense in the league to above average is seismic jump. So I wanted to jump into some of the reasons that that's happening and what you've seen from him. So going back and watching that Saints game again, what is the first thing that jumped out to you? It's he's taking out all the shit. Like he's taken out all those real bad negative plays.

And that's what Daniel Jones would have those, his first ever start was like this. But like he had, he would have those couple flash games when he just had none of those back breaking negative plays because he would take brutal sacks or a force fumble and the ball would kick back 10 yards. And now it's second and 28. So when you, he's only, no, he's not turned the ball over. It's like, okay, that's right. This guy is a big athletic dude who, when he's in rhythm, could put the ball on the money. And it's like, he throws a really pretty ball.

Doesn't he? And the mechanics are good. I know. I know. I'm like, I try not to fully just go, holy shit, this might be a guy. But it's like, he looks the part right now. He really does. I mean, the Washington game was a total.

We don't think the Washington's defense is as good as we may be a thought going in this season. They played poorly. But the fact that Daniel Jones was able to really at parts take over that game with his legs and how accurate it was. But the Saints game, which is really cool to watch because I think, I still think Daniel Jones still has that Kirk Cousins to him where it's, he's very smart on the board. And then it's the post snap. If things don't break how he thinks they're going to break, like as far as defensive structure or what they're running, also and shit can hit the fan. And it's like, oh boy, oh boy, you're hoping he goes to the right spot. And the fact that the Saints game, his eyes went to the right spot every single time.

He knew exactly what he was getting. That's why he was able to throw in rhythm. That's why he was able to throw accurate. So it's like, is this real now? He's done it for a couple weeks now. Okay, I want to see him against another goodish defense. I don't know if that Saints Pass Rush is great. I want to see him now against this Cowboys defense.

I might get after him a little bit up front. I want to see what the pressure, what he looks like in pressure. But I mean, this is a big athletic dude that is throwing accurate right now. He's not spraying too many balls. He's thrown at all three levels. And then on top of it, like he ran a 4-8 and change. That dude can roll. Like he gets going.

Like the little rushing touchdown he had, I want to say, against the Saints. It was probably, yeah, it was against the Saints, but one of the games I watched. Yeah, the rushing, or the two point. He had the rushing two point. That's what it was. It was a two point. He had the rushing two point. And he split a gap that was like, I mean, it was like top tier athleticism, like how fast he closed that five yards to score. Like the defenders didn't have a chance. Like if that was a slower guy, he would have got this head taken off. So it's like, oh, wow, that's pretty cool that he's doing this creation stuff. But I think what it is is he's operating under pressure a little bit better. I still want to see him when it's bullets are flying and in his face. face a little bit more or when a defense I might, you know, run some funky stuff on him. Right now, I think if you run a static coverage against him, he's going to dice you up. But that is saying something. And I think they've taken some fat out of some of his reads. They're doing some glance RPOs with them.

And it's just, it's just a good ball right now. It's a good ball and he's playing well. He's playing more confident. I just want to see some of these games where it's maybe it's not as clean for him. But there is some tangible improvement there. He's anticipating stuff. And there is some, maybe not to the extremes that some of these numbers are saying, but there is some tangible improvement with his play.

I think cutting out the fat is a great point. If you look at and you say simplifying it, a lot of two-man routes with five and six-man protections off-play action. A lot of play action. When you think about his strengths, he throws the ball down and feel really well. If you give him some time and just let him rip and it's just like, this is it.

Like you've got a post and a dig. And if they're on the post, you hit the dig. And he looks good doing that. There were a couple of those moments where he's got Ross on that big over and he's got Gaudet on the dig behind it, and he just rips it. So if you look at the numbers, they've had 28 play action throws or dropbacks with six and seven man protection on the season. That's the fifth highest mark in the league.

He is 18 of 24 for 277 on those plays, averaging 11 and a half yards per attempt. Love it. And that makes a lot of sense. And it honestly, with the guys that they have, especially the guys they had on Sunday, right? No Shepherd, Tony getting kind of mixed into this. into the offense, Ross is still really fast. The touchdown he scored,

the touchdown he scored is not complex, right? It's a post, and then they held it down with some sort of dig behind it. And he just hits it over the top. It's in rhythm, makes it happen. And then the RPO's are interesting. Like he just is seeing it well. They had a couple dropped that could have been even more efficient on those plays.

And then a lot of plays where they'll play out of a stack, especially against the Saints who play, a decent amount of man coverage. Just little tiny switch releases to give their guys. It just a little bit harder to deal with. And two-man concepts, though, where it's like a sale coming back where they're trying to attack down the field on the sideline.

Like just stuff that makes sense given his skill set and trying to simplify things down. And he looks really good doing it. The other part of the play action stuff that I like, it allows the offensive line to be aggressive. and I think that that's something I've noticed with Thomas. He's playing so much better. Andrew Thomas, their left tackle, who had a rough go of it for a good chunk of his rookie year,

especially at the beginning. He's playing very well right now, and he's playing really confidently. And when he can really jump on guys and play action, he has an advantage now when he's doing that. Like he's snatching guys, like Tyron Smith-style snatching guys. And I think that giving him that kind of aggressive, mindset as a baseline of their offense is a benefit to him right now. And I think that's only accentuating how well he's playing. So overall, the pieces are fitting together. It's actually kind of a fun offense to watch. It really is. I know. I was shocked how much I enjoyed watching it.

You know, that's such a good point with the old line. Like, I think the old line, like, I would say they're like, you know, it's like a bunch of studs up there, but they're playing fast. Like they're going like that play action protections, like they all know exactly what they're doing. Like it gets this the saints will bring some stuff their eyes are all really good like and so it's like okay they're some someone's coaching really well with there and that i mean that's like a theme right now it's like the old line coaching woo but it's uh but also like even like little trickle downs that's happening with their personnel like Kyle Rudolph being able to be the why and then you bump Evan ingram you know to the F tight end that's helped them because there's there's been times where

in the last couple of years where they had to put you know former first round pick you better play them they had him as the Y tight end it's like oh my god he can't can't block a soul. So now they get to hide him. But it's like it's just that that trickle down where it's like, okay, now he doesn't have to. Now we don't have to put him in a bad position where it's not his skill set. Like you said, they're putting these guys and things they're good at. They'll run, you know, I'm going to always pump this up. They'll run duo. Sequin Barclay's good at duo because he can make a mic miss. He's not a good zone. I've, this is why I've always thought with Barclay is that, excuse me, with Seekwon is that sometimes he can do too much. He can do the Barry Sanders stuff or

He's juke and juke and juke and it's homerunner or negative to your gain. It's sometimes with duo that helps because it's downhill. He can dance, but actually dancing helps him because it seals the block and everything. So it's like, okay, which run runs that he's good at. And he is he is so talented. He's getting healthier. But it's just all these little trickle downs are kind of like, okay, okay, this is making a lot more sense than maybe I thought a couple of weeks ago.

And if Dan Jones plays like that, I keep calling him Dan Jones for some reason. But if he should be Dan Jones. Dan Jones does fit him. It sounds so much better, doesn't it? Just Dan Jones. I don't know. I don't know. Mike Jones, who?

But just that kind of, and Tony, you know, playing well too. Like I love that you brought up to the postover stuff. He had one against the Saints. I want to say he hit Tony on it. Watching him run this play action, post over, and hit the over in rhythm before it. Because the aiming point on those overthrows, if you're going to the boundary, is the numbers. You're trying to hit them before the receiver goes to the numbers. So that's your aiming point on the throw.

Watching Dan Jones do it. perfectly in rhythm, almost clinic tape, and then also I'm watching Big Ben do the exact same play action concept. And then he, Big Ben, panic. He hitches once and he's supposed to let it go. This is a 15 year vet. He pumps and then starts shuffling around. And it's like, Daniel Jones is operating better and Big Ben on those concepts.

I know that's a pretty low bar right now. But it's like, okay, that's saying something that he's able to do this. So I'm surprised by this Giants offense, pleasantly surprised. It's been, it was a lot more of enjoyable watch than maybe I even thought going in. it's fun watching Sequin kind of get folded back into things too, right? At the end of the game, when you can go empty and you're running back that's typically out there as a decoy or as an indicator or whatever can run by Marshawn Latimore for a 50-yard touchdown, that's a benefit. That's what you hope when you take a guy's second overall. And the Tony aspect of this, I still think it's silly to take him in the first round when you consider what your roster looks like.

What he can do with the ball at his hands is impressive. I mean, just a little, a couple things where they tried to, like, third and 19, being able to throw a slip screen to him and have him take it for a first down. It's nice to have that. I don't know how it's all going to shake out when Shepard gets back and with all the pieces that they have, but I'm enjoying watching this offense more than I thought. I'm looking forward to them playing the Cowboys more than I thought I would. It suddenly becomes much more interesting. And again, stuff is hard to pause early in this season. They play Washington.

He has a big game, but it's a couple keeps around the left side. it's just Washington's defense playing poorly. It's what's real, what's not. Are they actually playing better? And they are. They are definitely playing better football because the Saints, even if they don't have the personnel they've had over the last couple years, they're still a good defense.

They're still a top five-ish defense by all the metrics right now. And I think that the eye test is still pretty good, hard to run on, just the way they stunt the front. Like, there are still a pain in the ass to play again. So I was impressed with that performance overall. I'm excited to watch more of it. All right. Let's move on to another deal.

defense we wanted to dig into one that's playing extremely well over the last couple weeks. And that is the Cleveland Browns who play a big game against the Chargers this week. One of the games of the week, yeah, this one circled, starred, everything. Cleveland had a ton of turnover on defense this offseason, right? Like they changed out all the component parts, essentially except for Miles Garrett and Dent's Award. Other than that, they changed out everything else by design. Like they spent the entire offseason, Andrew Barry, front office, everyone there. It's like, all right, how do we rebuild this thing?

What does that look like? And it looks like a different unit. Spoiler alert, it looks a lot better with the players that they have now. I agree. Yeah, good players make a lot of schemes look a lot better. But that's actually talking about, well, you know, I almost said the Panthers defense, but talking about the Bill's defense is they're the same way. They're not running anything too, too crazy, you know, but then when you have good players and it's well coached, it looks good.

Like it really does. But even just getting the synergy and we were texting about this, but like a Miles Garrett and a clownie, like they are the exact perfect, the yin and yang you want on the edge. Like you have, Miles Garrett is a freak bonafide stud. He can turn it off a little bit against the run sometimes. He'll, he knows. He knows what he's like. I'm not saying all the time. I'm just saying once in a while.

He's like, okay. But you know who tears it up against the run? to Davian Cloudy because he lives inside and messes shit up for offenses. That's what he is. He's just a chaos creator. You just drop him in and it's just negative plays. It's why I was excited about this because when he doesn't have to be your best pass rusher, he's really useful.

The Vikings tried to run three screens that they could not operate because he was instantly fucking them up. That's what this guy does. And when that's what he can be for you, he has a ton of value. And even beyond that, do you know, they have right now, Garrett is second and Clowny is sixth in pressures in the NFL. Seems like it.

Jesus. When you're doing that, you are in trouble. They are 22nd in the league in blitz rate and fourth in pressure rate. I was just going to ask, they don't blitz that much. So it's like, that's saying something. And then you look at it. And on the back end, I think this is really important. And this is kind of how it happens, right?

You look at the snaps last year. A thousand snaps for Andrew Sendejo, 1,200 snaps for Terrence Marshall, 600 snaps from Kevin Johnson, 780 snaps from Carl Joseph. When those snaps are now going to, John Johnson, Troy Hill,

greedy Williams, who had a fantastic game against the Vikings. And we'll talk about that in a second. And then Grant Delpit is getting those Carl Joseph snaps. It's not surprising, but it still is cool to see a plan come together. And especially on the depth side of this, because Greg Newsom isn't playing. He's just hurt. And you don't even know because their third corner is Greedy Williams.

And he has a fantastic game. He had that same interception playing the post as that backside quarter's corner that Jaira Alexander had a couple weeks ago. And for that to happen as a guy who, again, is your third outside corner. It just speaks. Ronnie Harrison played two snaps in this game and then we're just out. Like that is a testament to just how many bodies this team has right now back there. And even with JOK, like, like him running around. I know.

And it's like, yeah, of course. He doesn't know what he's doing half the time. Okay. It's really fun to watch. You can tell. He just goes, he's looking left and right and going like, I think this is a run. But that's like, I don't know if you're supposed to be doing that. But great play.

Great play fitting up on that polar. Like, you know, he does it. But it's like, he has his limitation. So you don't want him on the ball. But it's like they have that guy off the bench basically and playing, you know, 30-ish 40 snaps and like making good plays for him. And when you have that, when you get in these plus plays from these types of players, it's like, ah, that's when you get a good unit. I, you know, I really speaks to like, like I said, they're not doing anything crazy. But like, against the Vikings, this is kind of just shows like they understand who they are.

and they also are understanding what their opponents are. I guess the Vikings, there's a third and extra long. Vikings, of course, are going to send out pro, like as far as they're going to give chip help on the outside. What do the browns do? Simple little tweak. Let's just put Garrett on one side at the end. And let's put Clowny over the right guard.

You know why? Can't chip help on the right guard? Okay, guess what? Clonny puts a pressure instantly, dominates the right guard, freaking gives him the rock bottom and it just like he's already putting pressure on him. All right, now it's a fourth and six. normal more formation. I think it was bonch for the Vikings

gone, gun bonch, but not really like chip looky kind of play. All right. So what they do here? Bring a little soft one man pressure from the linebacker, not even a fast one. Just like, hey, left guard, you got to block me. Well, with Garrett on that side, it was exactly.

So now you have those one on ones. Yeah. Now you got one on ones. And guess what? It's not crazy coaching. I'm not saying this is revolutionizing the wheel. It's just understanding, hey, let's unlock our fantastic, awesome players by just doing

little tweaks. That's all it is. It's just good coaching, good scheme, good scheming. I guess this is the best way to put it. But that's what they do. It's like they're putting these players in good positions. We're just talking about the bill's defense doing this. It's kind of a version of that.

But the thing is, they actually have a couple stars. And even it was really fun watching Justin Jefferson and Denzo Ward battle. Like that was awesome to watch. But then Ward gets them at the end, makes a big play at the end. Star played like a star at the end of the game. That is so cool. I'm seeing this unit. I'm just beyond curious to see.

how the charges get after them. Because I, even with this Browns defense, their first in DVOA against in rushing defense, I do think you can run on them a little bit. Like I think it's just kind of how game scripts have gone and also just who they're playing against. And like the Vikings had,

they had Delvin Cook on a pitch count. Madison was trying to hit cutback lanes. He's just not fast enough to hit them. And so, you know, who is pretty fast, Dawson Eckler. So I'm curious,

okay, are we going to see some windbacks, some cutback, cutback lanes on zone stuff, outside zone that cut up and get, north. So that's why I'm curious if the chargers get after them through the run. Because even though they're

first rushing you, I do think that is one little thing that you can get after this unit. Not that I'm saying they're bad or anything. I still think they're good. It's just that maybe that's not a little more chicken in the armor than we initially suspect. There are two other things I wanted to talk about. One, the front stuff I think is really

cool because they're not just saying like we're going to roll the ball out and have our four guys play. Like we're going to create one on once. We're going to overload. We're going to move miles inside. And he's playing like an absolute superstar. I mean, like, what he's doing right now is, like,

superhero bullshit. Like, some of the, his inside move where he's just hopping over a gap in a half, there's nothing you can do about that. Nope. It's just, that is,

the Vikings had triple team on him and you beat it. Like, okay, it was, it was, that shit is crazy. Yeah. Him being able to do that and then combined with them

giving their guys, advantages by alignment, where it's like, all right, we have three guys on one side, we have miles on this side. We had that soft pressure, so we have one on

ones, but it's not really coming, so we can back up if you want to. They're doing some fun stuff that's really putting their guys in good spots up front. And the back end, it's cool watching a group of really talented defensive backs be dialed in as playmakers. Because we talk about the Greedy Williams Interception, where he's making that play. I mean, I sure that is an assignment, but that's still like a next level assignment to make that play. And there was another one where Hill almost got a pick falling off against a little stick.

where he had the number three receiver, he falls off it and tries to pick it off. And then Denzel Ward twice in this game. And I'm curious what you think about this. He was the right corner. They motioned the receiver on that side away from him. So there's just a tight end on that side. He came both times. I assume that's his prerogative to do in that moment.

And he triggers when that happens. So when you have these guys who are super talented, also just have their playmaking antenna up at all times, that's when special shit starts to happen. And it does feel like they're starting to get to that place as a group. I think that's what the misconception of football is like, okay, there's 60 some odd plays in a game on each side of the ball.

And it's, there's a lot of kind of bullshit plays for some of these guys. Like, you know, like kind of like, okay, just do my job. All right, cool.

Do my job. Okay, cool. Then there's times where it's like, like for an offense to say, we're going to take a shot play here. For a defense, it's like,

hey, okay, it's third and five. They love doing this call. So it's called this. That's what that is. Like I agree with you because actually that coverage, when he blitzed on it, I know exactly what was. It was a play action,

tight end locked and protect. And I was like, oh, he's adding on because he's man with the tight end. But it wasn't. It was zone. And it was like, like you said.

And I think that's like it's a prerogative thing. It's a game. Like that's what this good unit does. I couldn't tell. That's why I wanted to ask you. I, it's funny because I almost highlighted that play. That's so cool that he brought it up.

Because I, I'm curious, it was a zone coverage because it was three. But he did add as soon as he blocked and he added. And then I was looking at it. I'm like, all right, so what would happen if the title release or whatever? But then the-

Well, they brought Jefferson behind it one time. That's what I was going to say. The safety was over there. So it was like, okay. All right. I know.

I know. So it's like, there's no way that was a corner cat because it's just how it looked. So it was no way that was automatic. So again, game planning and find these one little one-off situations where it's like, hey, we got a good player.

Let him go. Let him go. So, and it's a smart player realizing that he didn't you notice on that too he didn't communicate with anyone either he wasn't like hey hey he was having to say he bumped j okay over on the second one okay because jok was walked down over the tight end and he bumped him over the second time that he did it but the first time he did not communicate he just goes i know and that's like ah that's awesome that means they went over something that week and then and they took advantage of it which is awesome and then

the last guy to mention kind of in that same mold delpit also has that in his DNA he is a really smart player and just him being able to get dropped in there again didn't play last year somebody they did not have as part of this and he's doing stuff where he's carrying feeling on overs and just like understanding how to match with people and just never not a lot of wasted downs with this team there just is not there's not a lot of wasted plays where there are guys that just aren't an active part of what's going on even in zone coverage and i think that again when you combine that with the level of talent this team has i do think that they're going to be a real real really, really good.

I thought that it could be a top 12-ish defense with this group. I think their ceiling is higher than that. I honestly do. I do too because they're always going to. The one good thing is like, I think the ceiling of any unit is like the star power. That's what they have Miles freaking Garrett. So it's like that is going to unlock everything else.

And the thing is they're doing it right. They're using like, like that's the biggest theme I think you can take from our just little Brown's defense discussion is this team is well coached and they obviously game planned very well because they everybody, I think you're lying about everybody having their antennas up to make a play. That's the best way you describe this unit. They also,

and they see certain things and everyone's just going like, oh, let's pass this off and undercut it. Like, hey, hey, let's get clownians. Hey, hey,

the clowny knows, oh shit, I'm about to get a one on one against the guard. Oh, let's go, baby. They are aware of the advantages. And that just speaks to the unit. You can feel that.

When you watch a defense, you can feel that build over the course of a season. There's just like, remember? Yeah. Not saying, not saying that. that level, but that's when we were watching the Rams last year, we were like, they're doing

some shit. Like when everyone's taking ownership and going like, they know what, when they could take, have a big play and undercut something. It's like, okay, that's, that's cool. And similar to what we said about the bills, you know, their offense has struggled over the last couple weeks. Yeah, they're winning because the defense is playing so well that it's keeping them in these games.

So you can have these missteps by Maker Bayfield and he's hurt and he's dealing with the shoulder injury and like, what does our offense look like? and we've got to find our footing. It's nice to be able to find that footing at your own pace because you have Miles Garrett just wrecking stuff left and right. Literally unblockable. The two minute you wrote at the end of the game was like, I felt bad for the left tackle and Kirk Cousins.

It was like, because they stopped chip helping. And it was just like, and Miles Garrett knows that. He was like, there's no one where he just ejected him into space was like, oh my God. Fishing back five yards. Poor Rashad Hill. All right. Let's stick in the AFC North.

We're going to talk about the bank. Bengals, all right? People who listen to this show, and Bengals fans especially, are aware of the fact that we were not overly enthusiastic about the Bengals coming into the season. I think elements of that conversation have been misconstrued. I never thought the Bengals were like a four-win team. I just thought their ceiling was pretty defined with their roster construction, with the way that they had built things on defense mostly.

and I thought their offense had a chance to be potentially a top 10 unit with the guys that they had if their offensive line could stay healthy because any injuries there, I didn't think they had the depth to stay anything. They are better than that in some areas right now. They are a three and one team. Their defense is top five by DVOA so far. We're going to talk about where the Bengals might be better than we anticipated them coming into the season. So I'm going to let you start us off. This is not defensive. we're going to get into some of what this is going to be a wide-ranging conversation.

I want you to start us off. Where do you think the Bengals are better than you thought they were going to be? First off, their under center run game is a lot better than I was anticipating. I know, that's exactly what Bengals fans are. And more voluminous than I anticipated it. Yeah, I know. But even though they have an extremely heavy tell at this point from next gen stats, they're 80% pass out of shotgun.

They're 20% pass from under center. So might have a tendency there. They might want to start fixing a little bit as these weeks go on. But I will say it's like that reminded me is like, oh, yeah, Joe Mixon's really damn talented. When you start seeing some of those under center runs, it's like, oh, yeah, he's a really good back. I think past game wise, they still live in empty. But I would say the improvements that they have made is that at least varied up those empty looks. They create a stack.

They create a bunch. They switch where the tight end, the running back are. They, you know, they overload his side. So it's like, okay, they realize that's the world they're going to live in. Okay, they tweaked it a little bit. They're attacking downfield a little bit from those, from those empty formations and like providing chip help, which I have praised the Rams for doing and other teams for doing is that getting empty. But then chip help, maybe one or two guys on either side, just change up the look. So guys can't tee off on you.

So they've adjusted the world that they've lived in. I think defensively, I think they're also pretty well coached on defense. I think they don't have overwhelming team speed. But I mean, they really, they have good eyes. there aren't really real bust. They haven't really played anybody. But it's like they haven't had a real bust there on defense. They're well coached.

And it was like, that's kind of what I thought, though. They their communication is better than I anticipated. It really is. It really is. The linebackers are playing well. And then up front they're playing like Larry Ogajobi is playing phenomenal right now. Like he really is 65. D tackle.

It's just that they don't pressure a ton. They run drop eight a little bit. So they're varying up the looks there. And they just put himself in the good position. I think this defense is, is, I think they're. They're not, I don't think they're an elite unit by any means, but I do think they are a good solid unit. I think that's how I look at them.

They're well coached and they have enough players to be okay. Um, I think offensively, I think some of it, I, we're trying to be positive right now. So I think offensively, though, is that we don't have to be. You can do it. Okay, okay. Let's get into it. Let's get into it. All right.

So I still think they've got a little lucky on some of this stuff so far. I'm not sold. Yeah, I'm not sold. I am not. They're 20th and DVO in offense and that's how it looks. Um, I think. Burrow is a good solid quarterback. We've talked about this now.

He is doing what he can in that offense. I really do think it's not where I'm going like Burrow has to play better. I think everybody else has to improve a lot. There's a ton of pressure still. I mean, Burroughs running for his life sometimes. And that's not just a talent issue. If you want to live an empty, that O-Line and quarterback have to be freaking sharp. And the O-line coach and offense coordinator for understanding their stuff.

Everybody, the main cogs of your offense have to be very sharp if you're going to live an empty. They still have a ton of bus just mentalized an empty, empty protection. They want to get to the Steelers where there's three Steelers lined up to the right side. Those safeties rotated to the right side and they slid to the left. And that's when Melvin Ingram just ran clean free in. The right guard sliding to the left. I get the right guard was a rookie in the start in the game. But it was like, uh, uh, you know, sometimes in the run game as much as they improved.

I do like to understand a run game. They have two guys going to block the exact same guy. And that's when I can always tell. it's like, oh, who's getting coached up there? If it happens, once, that happens. The receiver goes the wrong guy, blah, the guy pulls the wrong guy. That happens. But when you see it four or five, six times crop up in a game, it's like, are you guys

just running ball plays or are you guys coaching it? You know, so those are some of the blemishes I still see. I'm not completely sold on it, but they are improving from what I thought they could be. Listen, Vegas had them at six and a half wins. It wasn't like we were out of line here thinking. I thought they'd be around 500. I thought they would be a 500 team. Eight and nine-ish team.

That's kind of what I think. a feisty little offense and a feisty little defense that can have some good games. That's kind of what I thought they were going to be. And I think they've dodged some bullets so far. I think they're better up the middle on defense than I anticipated them be. I think DJ Reader had played extremely well. Their run defense has been pretty good. They got pushed around by the Jags though.

The Jags running game is very good. It is. They run the ball really well. James' Thompson's a good run back. That's not the worst thing in the world. But I thought that they're running game, their run defense is much worse against Jacksonville. But so far, they've defended the run well. Reader's been good.

Logan Wilson's. played really well, which is nice because they just don't have any homegrown defense players. And for him to be in his second year as a third round pick, you have to feel good about that. He's obviously made some splash plays in coverage. I mean, big time interceptions. It helps when Ben Rothesberger is throwing the ball right to you. I am not sold on the defense overall.

And I think that they're solid. But I also think that they've played the second easiest schedule of offenses in the league. And I know the bills have too. the bills have destroyed the teams that they've played. The Bengals have played very well. I think that there, you watch it. Rathusberger, there have been quarters against the Steelers. Claypool just cooks Eli Apple, just like goes, threatens to the pylon, comes back in wide open.

Rathesberger throws a 20 feet over his head. Like there are plays on the field against the secondary right now. I think that the safeties are good. You know, I think that Von Bell is a solid player. I think that Bates is. I still have questions about their corners long term, and I just don't think the past rush is going to be there over the course of an entire season. I think that Hendrickson is, we know what he is.

His pressure numbers are pretty good so far this year. He's not, the left tackles he's played against are not good. And he feasts on not good left tackles. And when you're playing against the offenses they have, I think that's going to look pretty good. I do not have a ton of faith in their pass rush over the course of an entire season. And I think they'll be fine.

I think they will be an average to slightly below average defense when it's all said and done. I'll be happily wrong if they stick to be a top 10 defense for the rest of the season. It's a testament to their coaching if they do that because they do not have stars on that side of the ball. And I just think over time that is going to bear out when they start playing better offenses. On offense, I actually think that they're going to be okay. I think Burrow is playing really well. And I think if he keeps playing at this level with the skill position talent they have now, I don't understand why teams just are continuously giving Jemar Chase free releases off the line of scrimmage.

It's just like he's just running by people. I mean, his touchdowns are against like Pierre from the Steelers. He ran by Kindle Vildor for one. It's, uh, Breshaud Breland just wasn't even, they wasn't on the planet when he scored the touchdown. Two bear players close lined each other. Like they kept each other. But that dynamic is important for their offense. He gives them some downfield juice that they missed last year.

So now, okay, now we have that. And on third down, we can have Tyler Boyd working against a linebacker from empty and running a little jerk or running a little whip. And then you have T. Higgins is that. The pieces fit together to me. And I think Burrough is playing very well. I also think Jonah Williams is playing better than I expected. He is, the progress that he's made is really important.

he had a play against the Steelers where he anchored on a bull rush from Cam Hayward and just sat down. I was like, all right. Yep. Okay. And in the run game, too, he got a cutoff against the Steelers. I was like, oh, good for you. Like it was like, it was like a flash of athleticism that was like, oh, wow. Okay, that was a really good play.

I think he's, what he has done is promising. I think the scope position talent is good. I think the bro is playing extremely well. I think the defense will fall off at some point. I don't think they'll crater. But I do think that they'll come back to Earth a little bit as they start playing better competition. And we'll see what happens with the interior of the offensive line. You know, I mean, Jackson, Carmen, has been thrust in there now.

Trey Hopkins is not necessarily a great player. I mean, I think there are still questions there. Quinn's been healthy, which is an important. But that's been a question about him. So I've had people in the mailbag be like, do you want to apologize about the Bengals? It's like, no. It's a long, long season. If they are, you know, an 11 and 5 or a 12 and 5 team and, you know, they're pushing to get to the playoffs, then again, I will happily be wrong.

But I am not entirely sold quite yet. I, yeah, of course, I'm in complete agreement with that. It's, I like some of their players. Of course, I like Joe Burrow and stuff. It's just that's exactly it. It's just that there's some of these inconsistencies with this team that I'm not completely sold on. But I do think there's going to be some fun stuff with. their offense. I do like just because of the players involved. I do love seeing Tyler Boyd just running those

choice routes, you know, on the on the linebacker. Like that's what he's made to do. Um, so now you're getting some nice synergy as far as the receiving core. So, but it's just, I mean, and then you just think about it's like in the Jaguars game. What were their big plays? It was like broken plays, right? You know, it was Burrow running around hitting the tight end, uh, you know, Zoma on going across and stuff like that. So it's that that's kind of like where I, I'm hesitant on appraisant. So I think how you just said it is exactly how I feel about it the same. I think the offense is going to improve a little bit. Defense is going to step down a little bit.

And then they're going to be feisty and sometimes, but I just not completely sold on this unit. We'll see what happens with their run-pass balance because I think they've run the ball a lot in order to protect their quarterback for the most part early in the season. I think that's probably a conscious choice. And their run game hasn't been that efficient. I mean, they're 14th and passing DVOA,

but they're actually 20th and rushing DVOA, but because they're running the ball so much, they're 20th and overall offensive DVO. So I think that there's a world where they just let Burrow control that offense more than he has. Like the best version of that team, I don't think involves him throwing the ball 25 times a game. No. I think he is the centerpiece of what they do. But I can understand bringing him along slowly as you want to get more comfortable with the way that he's feeling.

Like that makes sense to me. But I just think at a mental level, he's playing at a really high level for a second year player. So I'm excited to watch that. I'm excited. I love, I like Joe Burrow a lot. I know. I just think that the confidence in the way that he just controls the game and his demeanor, all that stuff is cool. I just have questions still about other areas of this roster.

What they're doing. We'll leave it at that. One more note on the Bengals. They're playing Green Bay this week. This could be the type of game where we learn a little bit more about how good that defense is, about what they really are. So this is what I'm waiting for. I'm waiting for a better, more telling barometer. And I think we might get it as soon as Sunday.

All right. Last one here. We don't have spent a ton of time on this. Speculation about what this 49ers offense might look like with Trey Lance. Jimmy Garpo did not practice on Thursday. So we are trending toward Lance getting the start. What are you looking for? What do you think this is going to look like with him getting his first action here as the full-time started with a full week to have the game plan for him?

I'm excited to see what this flex bone offense can look like. Like that's what I'm hoping for. Like the very telling seeing how they use juice check out 21 personnel with Jimmy G and then when Trey Lance gets in there with Jimmy G like the first play they're like in a one by three look they motion the hip with him they're doing all this kind of spread stuff with them they go splitbacks and he's like the lead tight you know like lead fullback out of splitbacks and then Trey Lance gets in there and they're like okay we're going offset pistol this is this is what we do 21 personnel and so I want to see with this whole week looks like with Tray Lance now getting the full, it looked like they had about five

plays ready for him. And I want to see now what it looks like with 50 plays ready for him. It was very also telling this kind of sums up the difference between Jimmy G and Tray Lance or what they're going to give you. There was a play. I want to say it was like a mesh concept, but it was a high-low concept where they both had to hit the sit about 15 yards over the ball. Jimmy G. gets there late and then the window's closing on him. So he tries to gun it in there and he sails the ball about 10 yards over the guy's head, you know, over the receiver's head. Okay, later in the game, similar type concept, Trey Lance has to throw the same route. He's laid on it.

And then rather to try to gun it in there, he scrambles. So it's like, that's the difference in a nutshell right there. That's what Trey Lance is going to do. That's what Jimmy G is going to do when they're laid on the throw, which is going to happen, I think, with Tray. But it's, I think what they're going to do is like, I think the run game is still fine. Like, they are so creative with their stuff. It really is fun to watch, like fun watching away, how they, use juice check on every single play because they'll just be in 21 personnel and then they'll run

15 different formations at you and that's really hard to stop and now you get a quarterback run threat they they could not wait to get that first third and short against Seattle and recuby power or or the re power with with tray lans they could not wait and it would have work too but they have a real bad weakness on that 40 and irish team at the right guard position danio brown's exactly the play you're talking about it was counter bash right it was they have two guys coming around and they had Lance coming behind the two pollers and the guard just whiffs. It was on a corner. It was on a corner.

It was on a quarter. It was on a quarter that's knifed inside. I know. It was like, oh, just get a hand on him. Just forearm shiver them. I know. And he's bad. He's like,

he's one of the worst starting linemen in the league right now. And I hate to be so negative on a guy. But even if you just take a picture and I think I tweeted this one time late at night because I was stir crazy. And I like, you just take a picture of all of them. And you're like, which one is the worst lineman on the 49? Niners and like when they're in their stances and you can just know who it is. He looks like a normal person.

He looks like a human being that's in that spot. He started in the AAF. That's, that's, that's all I really need to say. He was, he was an alliance league member of the San Diego fleet coached by Mark, Mike Martz. That's all I really need to sum up Daniel Brown's skill. But speaking to Trey Lance, it's, you can tell he can get to the first read. He had a little bit of Drew Locke to him a little bit where it's like he knew what one route was on some of those plays. And you can tell.

But the thing is he has that big arm. He is going to push it down the field. I mean, throw a couple of those dig throws. He didn't throw a single spiral. I don't think the entire day. But it was like, man, he can cut through that wind. Like that ball is zipping out there. So there is going to be a little more intermediate game.

I think with this 40-9 offense. I really do think it's going to be more old school than a West Coasty Shanahan type with stick and all that. It's really going to be run and heavy play action with deep shot, dig post kind of stuff, which, you know, Shanahan does. But I think, I mean, I think they're going to steal some raeigh. and shit, right? Like, I think that's what we're going to see that type of stuff. The juice check kickout motions. They've already done that a little bit.

So now it's just going to be cranked up. And it's just going to be a little different than the flavor of Lamar. Omar is just more speed. And then Trey Lance is more of a brer, you know, bruiser type. So I'm really excited to watch what this looks like. I really am. I think Lance right now he's a wild horse, but it's like, man, he's so damn athletic. And you can tell his eyes are good.

Like they aren't bad. It's just, I think he just has to get comfortable going one to two to three. like every quarterback in the history of the world has ever had to do. But I think now that they put a game plan where maybe it's truly just half field reads, truly pick aside and go. That's going to help out so much. But I'm excited to watch this unit. I am.

I think they do some cool stuff. I love how they use personnel. They really need a big receiver on the outside. I think that's a weakness of this offensive unit right now. But man, they do some creative stuff and it's cool to watch. I'm excited to watch number five back there running around, maybe keeping a couple of those power.

reads. I'm looking forward to it. I mean, that afternoon slate, I think that game's a 305. My most guarantee you would be if they're playing the Cardinals. So that afternoon slate is going to be him in fields playing against the Raiders. I'm really looking forward to what's going to be on my TV. It's going to be a great week of games. This was a great conversation, but it is time to get to Sheel and him waving that towel.

All right. It's time now for this week's pick segment. We got a lot to get to today. There is a lot to dig through. Shill, why don't we start with how your week went last week? How are you feeling? How did you do last week in week four? I thought I did all right.

You know, I got two out of three. I was, Daniel Jones came through for me. Of all people, Jady McKissick, you know, he could have gone out of bounds, but he leaps and hits the pile on. I'm two and oh. But, you know, then late afternoon game is my lukewarm lock of the week, the Pittsburgh Steelers, another past seven yards behind the line of scrimmage on a fourth down. You know, I won't. There may have been some foul language used in the Capadia household that hopefully the kids didn't hear at that moment.

So here's the situation. We decided before the year that if you designated something, your lukewarm lock of the week and you got it wrong, you needed to endure some sort of punishment on or before the next show. As we talked about last week, we sought out the advice of our audience to come up with something for you. because you picked the Steelers and lost, what we landed on is that you have to wave a terrible towel above your head for this entire segment. For those listening on audio,

this is going to be available on YouTube. We're all looking at each other right now. Shield has a terrible towel. We overnighted him want to make this happen. The hell in high water lengths we did. We went to to get this. So we are going to start right now. you have to start waving it right now.

Love it. It's too high. I got to make sure it's in the screen. It's the lukewarm water. The shoulder might come down a little bit. There are times in your life when you kind of wonder how did you get to this place? Like, you know, my parents moved to this country 30 years ago. I don't know if they were like, you know, I hope one day my idiot son can be on, you know, YouTube,

waving a terrible towel in his home during a sports betting segment. I don't know that that was the dream, but you know what? Here we are. when I was 18 and I wanted to go to journalism school and I wanted to write like beautiful stories like Frank to Ford. I never imagined that I would be in this place either watching you two guys in these screens waving this towel picking games against the spread. So listen, we've all gone awry from what we had expected once upon a time. Nate, how did you do last week? Did you feel fair any better than Gilles did?

No, I didn't. I was doing well like going like two and one, two and one. you'll get my head above water and then I went one and two last week. My angle of betting the Vikings every week finally dried up. So I'm going to have to change some part of my strategy this week, I think, because that finally bit me. But did okay. The chiefs, the chief's covered. And that's one of my other angles of betting against the Eagles, which has helped me because

when I did my pick of the week when I did the 49ers, I would have had to sing the Eagles song, which is, I don't know if it's a little better than waving the towel. I have a terrible singing voice. So I think, I don't know. I don't know. Now I'm a little shy, gun shy with these pick of the week segments. I don't know if my shoulders in shape. So I'm waiting towels and stuff.

I promise you would not be able to endure what he's about to have to. So right now, on the season, it is seven to four and a half. Shield got two right last week big because he got negative one for missing his lukewarm walk. He only got one point. So the lead has not shrunk whatsoever. Nate still has a two and a half point advantage as we head to week five. Nate, what is your? your first pick of your three here for week five.

My first one, and we covered a part of this, Robert, on our show, because we covered one of the teams a little bit, but I am going with the Packers minus three at the Bengals. I really am thinking, we talked about the Bengals earlier in the show, Robert, but I just think that the Bengals aren't as a complete team as the record indicates. Even with the Packers injuries, I think they're a significantly better team. I think a tier better, and they have this guy named Aaron Rogers. I think this game has more of a minus six line, minus five and a half, somewhere more like in that number. So I want to get these points where I think that it's more fair to cover it.

Even with the injuries the Packers have, I just think they're just a better team. I really do. I think them having to cover the Bengals having to cover Aaron Rogers and Devante Adams for 60 minutes is a lot different than what they've had to go against, depending in the past in the first four weeks of their season. So that's why I'm going with my first bet Packers minus three. I'm just going to bet on Aaron Rogers. That's really my angle here. And I'm going to go with it.

I think that makes total sense. We dug into the Bengals in depth earlier on the show. A lot of Bengals talk. So I don't think we have to belabor at that point. Shield, why don't you kick us off with yours, buddy? What do you have as your first one? You know what I'm going to do? This worked for me back, you know, two weeks ago.

I picked the Giants. They lose. I wasn't afraid. You can't be gun shy. when you're making picks. You know, so I'm waving this towel. I see the Pittsburgh Steelers as one-point favorites at home against the Denver Broncos.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the butt of every joke on every football account you follow on Twitter. I'm making them left and right. They were, I thought, the worst offense in the NFL to watch last week. I mean, it is so frustrating to see what they do. The miss throws there,

it's not like nothing was there. I mean, there were throws there. that were relatively routine throws that Ben Rathelsberger did not make fourth down. I mean, two weeks in a row, fourth down, you are throwing behind the line of scrimmage. I mean, really, you're facing a three-man rush, and you're treating that football. Like, if you don't get rid of it in a second and a half, your head's going to turn into a pumpkin. Ben, what are you doing, my guy?

Throw the ball three yards. But this line is just showing the Steelers no respect. I mean, you still have a T.J. Watt. You still have a Minka Fitzpatrick. We don't know if Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Frickin Locke is going to be quarterbacking that Denver Broncos team, which is all kinds of banged up going to Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin, everyone's down on you. I got the towel.

I'm going to put the towel to use here. We're taking the Steelers minus one at home against the Denver Broncos. What is it? Here we go still. Who is that? Just start singing. renegade by sticks. That's what you got to do.

I'm going to hate myself. That's going to be next week. It's a one o'clock game. Sunday at 2.30 or whenever they're kicking off, I'm going to be in here just hating myself. That's a usual Sunday for me at this point. What just fortitude you have as a person to be able to watch what the Steelers' offenses looked like over the past couple weeks and pick them to cover?

I know they're only giving one, but you don't have to do this. There are 31 other teams. No one is making you pick this game. The fact that you are purposely choosing to endure this, you are a much heartier man than I. That's all I'll say. Listen, it's finally swung during a normal week. This would be a three point line, I think, even as bad as the Steelers have been playing, minus one. Come on.

Just get me a win. That's what I'm saying. Even if you're trying to fight an edge, though. She'll loves that nobody believe in us angle. Like that's honestly his angle. Tomlin, they're all doubting you, baby. I hope you're watching. Lions week one you had the Giants the last couple weeks you're just like you're truly just going like nobody believes in us

I'm gonna wait till you wait for the next deal my friend all right Nate what do you got what's your second one I'm sorry but as shields like crapping on Big Ben and waving the towel it was just great oh my god it's just I want more gusto over there by the way like it's let's go there I'm taking my time because he distracts himself when he gets to talk so like you know as long as I stall on my picks he's at to do it the whole time. All right. Well, continuing on, it's not the Thursday night game NFC West Battle. I'm going with the other NFC West battle.

I'm going with the 49ers plus five at the Cardinals. I like it. And this is one gone back and forth on. I do believe in Kyler and what he's done. I do think that Cardinals defense is feisty. I do think it's more of a high variance defense that is going to get exposed at some point. I swear someone's going to expose them like for a whole game, but no one has done it yet. I mean, they have, but not really.

But I do this 49ers team, I love what they are up front. I love Fred Warner. Coverage wise, they do have some some stuff that's not perfect at this point in time, but I do think that defense is feisty. I think offensively, they actually, what they want to do, I trust Shanahan against what this defense is because defense can be a little sloppy. Defense can overrun stuff, the Cardinals defense I'm talking about. And I just think that the 49ers kind of match up well against that in the run game.

And even if it's Tray Lance is starting. We talked about this, Robert. I actually think that helps a little bit with the Cardinals against the Cardinals because I think he's going to be able to create some stuff. A full week of game planning with Trey Lance as your quarterback is going to just change what it looked like last week. I just think this line should be a little more even, more of a plus three line. But I'm going to take the points. I think the Fournierers are a little better team than we realize.

I think and I think the Cardinals are a little less, even though they played really well so far in this offense, has done some good things with Kyler back there. but again, I think this team is a high variance team that's dodge bullets so far. So I'm just betting that they don't dodge a bullet in this game. The foreign airs take him. The way that you guys go about this is fascinating to me. I have one guy picking against Ben or picking Ben Rathesberger, choosing to pick around Brad Rathesberger,

and I have someone else picking against Kyler Murray with the way that he's played over the past couple weeks. Listen, you guys have your own methods here. Throttled. NFL, baby. I like it, Nate. I have them in my picks column. I thought that's a big line. And I actually think Lance, you know, if he's going to play, is a big advantage. I mean, they have no idea how they're going to deploy him. What kind of run schemes are going to be thrown their way. You know, the Cardinals have been very impressive. It is definitely dangerous to go against Kyler. But that Niners defense, I thought they were going to regress a little bit more this year, especially with the injuries. They've done a good job. They've been impressive. They've got athletes. And so, you know, I feel like that very well could be a field goal game. I like the night. Actually, that was one of the ones I wrote down, but I didn't pick, you know,

because I have two other brilliant ones coming up. Also, Nate, you know, we talked about this. The run game for the Rams didn't really get going last week in part because they got down and they had to start throwing the ball all around the yard. And the Cardinals run defense has been a little bit spotty. We talk about discipline, I discipline. I mean, there's a chance. There's just a lot of moving pieces if Lance ends up playing quarterback,

which we got into earlier. but I think against this Cardinals team, it's something to take note of. So I could see it being a game where they just try to bleed it out. It's a 24-21-type game. I could totally see something like that. So that makes sense. All right. Shio, what do we got?

What's your third one here, buddy? All right. I'm sticking in Pennsylvania, and I generally have no feel on how the Eagles are going to play, having covered them. But I like them in this game at Carolina. I think it was three and a half when I did my column. I think it's down to three. so I'll still take it at plus three.

The Panthers are our three-point favorites in this game. You know, the Eagles offense last week, I know it was the Chief's defense, which has been terrible, but they didn't punt the entire game. They drove into Kansas City territory. On every drive, they had 30 first downs. I think they had like 460 yards. I thought it was an encouraging performance

just in terms of scheming stuff up for Jalen Hertz, giving him some layups. They had three touchdowns that were taken off the board because of, you know, penalties that weren't like a, egregious penalties that, you know, certainly if guys do things a little bit differently, those are scores. So I was impressed with that offense. The Panthers are a little banged up. You know, Shaq Thompson has been such a playmaker for them. He's not going to be there. They obviously don't have J.C. Horn. And I think their offensive line, the Eagles should really be

able to get after that offensive line. I mean, I thought the Cowboys dominated both lines of scrimmage last week when they took that game over in the second half. The Eagles, their defensive line, got handled in that game against the Chiefs. I mean, the Chiefs offensive line dominated them, but I still think they're talented. Josh Swett, Jvon Hargrave, has been having an unbelievable year. Fletcher Cox has not played well, but he's sort of been in the headlines in Philadelphia all week.

Like, you know, hey, what's going on? He's blaming the scheme. I feel like he's going to be like, I don't care what I'm supposed to do on these plays. I'm going to go get some hits on Sam Darnel, pile up some of these stats, some sacks, some QB hits. So I like the Eagles plus three in, this game at Carolina. I actually picked them to win this game outright. So Cam Irving did not practice on Wednesday for Carolina. So there's a chance he doesn't play.

And he wasn't good anyway. He played poorly last week anyway. Yeah. So I was going to say that. I kind of think that might be a blessing in disguise for what this offensive line is supposed to look like in the future. Because I want to say Brady Christensen is getting those starts with them, the third round pick from BYU, who I think is really interesting. I mean, not a prototypical left tackle in terms of size, but somebody I wanted to see get an opportunity, but that Eagles defensive line is not necessarily when you want to be thrown to the fire here as a rookie coming in as a third round pick who people have questions about, but his viability at tackle long term anyway. All right, Nate, what's your last one here, bud? I think this is the first time

this has happened. I am on the opposite side of that line. I'm going to Panthers minus three. Oh my God. Every week. I love it. I couldn't do the Vikings this week. Too much, many points, but I am betting against the Eagles once again. And honestly, I almost got scared off this line. I did. I think it opened four, right? Four, four and four and a half. Four and a half.

Yeah. Yeah. And that getting it down to three and all those things, the concerns that you brought up with the Panther stuff. And that's almost what scared me off of it. Honestly, what talked me into it. And this is what talked me into is me talking to myself. But is Phil Snow who has done great stuff with this blitz stuff.

I think their first and second down stuff's okay. their third down stuff is great. They're passing down stuff. It really is. And I'm, I'm a hater sometimes going like, oh, whatever,

it's like, no, it's actually pretty good stuff. Like, it's your offensive guy coming out. I know. It is. It's like,

just wad it up and protect it and bombs away on that asshole. Like, that's what I think, but it's like, yeah, but you still got to do it. Um, honestly is this Eagles offense. They have.

And I, I'm with shield here. They did a good job against the chiefs for what the chiefs defense is. But I mean, they did. Like they have had two good game plans I've seen. so far at the falcons game the falcons game the falcons game was terrible but the falcon with falcons game had a good game plan they've done enough with with jalen hurts like to like okay cover up some of

his inefficiencies the thing is phil snow coming from that college level defenses he's played against offenses like this he knows how to game plan this this this is my angle on this i've no idea if this comes to fruition but this is why i see that kind of like maybe he's like oh i know how to defend against this shit we're going to go three safeties we're going to we're going to we're a tight mint fron so we're going to just do this it's going to be a big 12 game Like that's what he's going to turn it into. It's going to be Oklahoma versus Baylor's defense or something. Like that's what I think it's going to look like.

So that's really the angle I'm going for this. I think the Panthers offense can be explosive. They, even with the O line was, I'm down on their O line too, but they like, they're well coached. Like they do good stuff.

Like I, their eyes are good. They're going to the right guys in a run game. They're just not good. So it's like, you know, they're getting the most of they get out of these guys. But it's,

they have plenty of skill guys. I just, I think the pants are, Panthers offense is going to do enough. And I think that defense is, even when Shaq Towns was out and he's been playing phenomenal, I think they just don't have the threatening, they can't threaten that defense as much as you want. And the Phil Snow will know how to kind of handle the more dinky, donkey go ball offense

that the Eagles have done. So, or I'm just going to do my angle and just bet against the Eagles. I guess I could just said that too long didn't read. But Panthers minus 30. I love like the rhythm of an NFL week. So like Tuesday I'm writing in a column that Nick Siriani, you know, ridiculously terrible game management last week. I'm going on local sports talk radio,

just crushing their defense for just playing split safety zone, doing nothing creative vanilla letting pad. And now we get to this point in the week, and now I've got all this on the line, where not only am I going to lose a pie, just hit myself in the face with the terrible towel. This is going great. Not only do I have my point at stake,

but now it's like a two-point game, because you're going to, if the Panthers cover this at three, I lose mine, you and yours. So, yeah, every, you know, a team that has never disappointed the city, you know, the town that I'm in here, I'm sure this will go great for me. You hitting yourself in the face of that towel just made my week. This is all I ever wanted out of this career. All right.

Joe, you got your last one here. What do you got for us? You know what? What is this? Scared money don't make money. So we're going on making this the Luke, warm, locked in the week. Yes. Who am I going to get merch?

We're going to get merch. for 32 different teams. So we're just always going to be prepared for what we lose. I'm going to have lost on, yeah, what week are we in? Yeah, I'll have at least 12. It's week five. Yeah. I'm going to go with Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints.

They are going to Washington. They are two point favorites. This is a sports betting no-no. Don't put all your eggs in the road favorite basket. But that Saints team last week, you know, they have an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter. then they blow it. Certainly some questionable decisions there. James throws the touchdown,

gets called back for penalty. They throw Tase some Hill out there. He gets intercepted. So I think they're working through some stuff, obviously. But I actually thought James played, you know, that was probably his best game of the season, I think, last week. So I look at that Washington team,

and man, they were dead against Atlanta. They were just having prayers answered. Terry McLaurin that catch in the end zone. Credit to him for making it, but that ball's going to be intercepted. probably half the time when it gets thrown up there. J.D. McKissick, incredible play on the play I referenced earlier. But my point is it didn't look sustainable to me.

And that Washington defense, I mean, talk about the biggest disappointments in the NFL this year. I think they're 30th in EPA per play so far this season. So I feel, you know, I'm putting my trust in a couple OG head coaches, Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin this week. Come on, guys. Your teams are not great. You've seen better days. But you can win against teams like,

the perhaps Jewlock led Denver Broncos and the Taylor Hanicki led Washington football team. So I like the Saints to bounce back in this game. It could be ugly. I'm probably going to be sweating in this room and that game's being played. Maybe it takes a last second field goal. But I like the Saints to cover that on the road against Washington. We will do the same thing we did last week. We will kind of take suggestions from the listeners about what you have to do if this goes wrong.

New Orleans is a rich palate, folks. There are a lot of different ways that we could go with this. I'm thinking some sort of lukewarm seafood that's supposed to be served cold. I'm a vegetarian. That I can't do. You got to keep the meat and the seafood out of it. Nallands, I love you. Be good to me.

No crawfish. Yeah. All right. Well, we'll figure something out. We'll figure something out. I was like having to eat like a lukewarm oyster would be disgusting. So something like that would be great. But we get creative because there are a lot of different ways you can go with New Orleans.

A lot of inspiration. there. Gentlemen, this is great. This is one of my favorite things to do every single week. Shield, thank you very much. You're a trooper. You can stop waving that thing. Listen, these shoulder presses, you know, the big 25s I've been putting up during the week. Hard work pays off, baby. I feel great. 20 straight minutes of doing that. You are a good sport. We appreciate it. It's always good to chat with you, buddy. Thank you guys for listening, as always. Really appreciate it. Please rate, interview the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I mean a lot to me.

Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. You can check out Shields, picks against the spread on the Athletic, along with all of our other fantastic NFL coverage. Nate and I will be back on Sunday. If you have not listened to the football GM with Mike Sando and Randy Mueller,

you can do that on our Apple bonus subscription content and on the athletic app. I highly encourage you to check that out. Nate and I'll be back on Sunday night. Until then, enjoy your weekend, guys. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic. football show.