The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Breaking down the QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft

Episode Date: March 28, 2024

It’s QB Day on The Athletic Football Show! Robert Mays, Nate Tice and Dane Brugler bring you an extensive look at the top QBs in the 2024 draft class. They dive into the film of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. Plus, they also talk about Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler and where they could land.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Nate on Twitter: @Nate_TiceFollow Dane on Twitter: @dpbruglerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We got a fun one on tap today. It is quarterback day here on the Athletic Football Show, digging in all the way to the 2024 quarterback class. And here, to help me do that, are our two draft nerds here at the athletic. First of all, it's my friend.

Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, buddy? You don't have to demote Dane like that, going from expert to nerd. I think nerd is actually. a better term than expert when it comes to this kind of stuff because expert implies like an aesthetic distance where you're almost like a scientist. Dane loves this. Dane loves getting into the nitty-gritty of this. So I actually think nerd is a term of endearment when I'm throwing it around in moments like this. I feel like a geek might be more hands-on. So maybe that might be the term that I'm going to go

with here. But no, I feel I'm happy to be here, happy to do this show. I feel like this might be, I want to say this is the last time I'll have to talk about these quarterbacks, but that's not. it, but hopefully we get some real finality with these kind of takes right now. At the end of March, we still have a month to go to the draft. So here we go. You and I have done this for the last, I think, four years. We've done a show on the quarterbacks every single year. This is the first time that Dane is going to be joining us, and I am thrilled that he is here.

It is our draft expert here at the athletic. Dan Bruegler. Dan, appreciate you being here, buddy. Oh, this is going to be fun. I just finished watching some Cortland State tape. They've got a pretty good receiver. We might have another Pierre Garcone, D3 receiver on her hands. and busy day for pro days.

We had Washington State today. Jaden Hicks, my top safety, ran on the 4-4s, so kind of the last data point for him. But yeah, no, this is going to be fun. I always enjoy this episode, especially with, because Robert, you bring such a fresh perspective because you have brand new eyes to these quarterbacks, right?

Sometimes you're in lockstep with what you've heard. Other times you see totally different things. And obviously, Nate and I have been talking about these quarterbacks since September. So, yeah, there's a lot of them. There's a lot of things that we're going to dive into here. It'll be a lot of fun. It's always so fun because when I opened the film,

Nate and I were talking about this the other day when we're talking about Washington's offense because I don't really watch a lot of college football. I watched a national championship game, but they got stomped on in the national championship game. So that was really my only exposure to what they looked like offensively and some of the Texas game. But when I turned it on last weekend,

I was like, oh, my God, I love this. And it's always, it's like I'm unwrapping a present when I watched the college film because I have no idea what's waiting for me on the other side. And these quarterbacks are no exception. We're going to talk about all the guys at the top of the draft, the guys that are potentially going to be going to be going

in the top five, all the names that you guys have all heard of. We're also going to be talking about some guys a little bit further down, maybe where they fit, what type of prospects we're talking about. But let's just start with a general overview of this day, because we always knew that quarterbacks would define this class to an extent, right? Because Caleb Williams and Drake May were names that had been bandied about for years now. I mean, it feels like at least a year and a half, maybe two years. We knew these guys were coming eventually.

But now it's taken one step further because, we have Jayden Daniels as emergence. And now it feels like because teams like Minnesota are trying to squeeze something out of this draft of quarterback, we might have four guys go in the first four picks. That sounds, it doesn't even sound that crazy now. It actually seems like that's where we're trending. And it also feels like even independent of those top four guys, there is a group of, you know, three or four others that could potentially be second, third round players that teams want to

trot out as starters. So as you think about this quarterback class in general, Dane, how do you think at profiles compared to some of the other ones that we've seen in recent years. Yeah, just the idea that we could have quarterbacks go one, two, three, four is crazy. But I think just when you take a step back and look at how first round quarterbacks usually go, there's a lot more Trey Lances where they're drafted earlier than they probably should be, as opposed to the Jordan Loves, who are probably drafted the appropriate spot where they were taken. And so, like you said, yeah, Caleb and Drake, we knew.

I mean, I've been pushing that J.J. McCarthy agenda since the summer. You sure have. Once he got in front of coaches, it was over. The intangibles, we're going to just set him apart, pull him in. And then, yeah, the Jane Daniels conversation is going to be a lot of fun to talk about because he's been steadily rising throughout the year, but not a perfect player. And so when you take a step back and really examine these quarterbacks, it's tough to do from a broad perspective when we can't do it in a vacuum, right?

We have all these preconceived opinions, maybe basically, off of what we've seen, what we've heard. But in all four of these guys, the top four, at least, you know, they've been in very different situations, very different offenses. What J.J. McCarthy was asked to do is wildly different than what Jane Daniels was asked to do. So the talent, the scheme around all these guys, very different.

And that's just an extra element that makes this quarterback class even more interesting. And there's a lot of intrigue, Nate, just because that second layer, I think, is a little bit better than it's been in recent years. Dane, after Anthony Richardson, And I don't think you had a quarterback prospect, another one in your top 100 last year. But now you've got Bo Nix is up there for you.

Michael Pennix is up there for you in like the 50s, 80s. And then, Nate, you had Rattler and Knicks and your honorable mentions just outside of your top 50 players. So even outside of the guys who would go in the top five, there are a lot of interesting names lingering in this class as well. Yeah, the QB3 discussion was originally like a subplot on prospects of pros this entire year. Dan kind of had McCarthy the whole time, give or take. And then I had my guy, my QB3 rotated like a spinal tap drummer. Like just I feel like every time I was like, Riley Leonard gets hurt. You know, uh, Tyler Van Dyke gets benched.

It's like anytime I tried to trot out a new guy, Daniels kept rising. J.G McCarthy kind of kept doing his thing. That was one of the called shots. Him and Quinion Mitchell were prospect of pros called shots that in the offseason process, they would both rise. And those were called shots by Dane. But I would say this next group, they're names that are very prominent in people's minds. Yeah, Bo Nix, Michael Pennix, Spencer Rattler.

He's been playing college football for 25 years. Forever. Spencer, I graded Spencer Rattler two years ago going into the 2022 draft, I believe it was. Yeah, it was. I think he was my QB1 going into that process. So he's been on the radar forever. Nix has been on the radar forever. Pennick's been on the radar forever.

They have qualities. They all do, but it really is, like we talked about with other positions, what kind of flavor you like? Do you like Nick? Some of his runaround stuff, some of his accuracy stuff, enough arms, got decent size. Do you like Pennix? We're pushing the ball, doing all that stuff, not taking sacks. Do you want Spencer Rattler who throws one of the prettiest balls you'll ever see?

It does some kind of the minutious stuff that you want to see with this quarterback group. But yeah, those three guys are probably rated higher than any of the guys that I have of that next group for last year's class, which was like Jake Hainer, Jake Hainer from president of state, Hennon Hooker. I had Tanner McKee up there a little bit, but that was like a fourth round grade. It wasn't any of these guys I look at as more day two guys. So it's an interesting group that, of course, that's why they're considered day two guys because they have blemishes, but they do do do some interesting things as well. Go back to past classes too. You look, Malik Willis or Kyle Trask or like, I mean, these guys are so much better than the second and third tiers that we've seen.

Oh, yeah. I mean, these guys are legitimate, you know, number twos who could potentially be number two. number ones in the right situation. So, yeah, that makes it for just an even more spicy quarterback group. I also think that we're going to have teams, especially outside of the top 10, maybe without the ammo that in Minnesota does, that are going to need quarterbacks somewhere along the process. And I think that's why that second tier even becomes more interesting.

But let's start with the guys at the top. And let's start with the presumptive number one pick in this draft. And that is Caleb Williams. At this time last year, Caleb Williams was considered one of those guys. That's what I'm going to say. He's one of those guys because generational is just out the window now. It's a silly term. It always was a silly term.

But I would say one of those guys comes along every few years. And that's just the prospect that we identify very early in the process. You know, maybe from the time they're a freshman or even when they're a recruit and throughout, they kind of keep that standing. And at the last one I would say was probably Trevor Lawrence. But Caleb Williams was one of those guys coming into this year. But then over this past year, it feels like the conversation got a little bit more complicated, right? USC fell off a little bit in some people's eyes. maybe he fell down from that class of prospect.

You know, Dane, there was a moment where you had Drake May ahead of him when you were stacking up your big board this fall. So now that the ups and downs of the season are over, and we have some distance from all of this day, and you have some space to maybe place him, where does Williams fall on that spectrum between a very good prospect and one of those guys that we've talked about in the past?

So on the spectrum, I think he falls closer to one of those guys, for me, no doubt. I mean, he's not Joe Burrow, in my opinion, who to me, over doing this last 10 years, is the ultimate one of those guys. But I think he's close to that Trevor Lawrence tier, where if he continues at this upward trajectory, even his bad is going to look pretty good for most NFL quarterbacks. And that's kind of similar to Lawrence, right? Even when it doesn't always look great for him, it's still acceptable quarterback play for the most part. And so is there going to be volatility with Caleb? you know, will there be more ways for it to go wrong? And so, you know, if like example, one of the main reasons, you know, for me with Caleb,

when I look at it, you know, in his development, can he efficiently get to second and third reads without taking, taking off, relying on his feet? Honestly, that's been an issue with past Lincoln Riley quarterbacks. And it's an offense where there's more reading pre-snap than post-snap. And so, and who did Lincoln Riley learn under? Mike Leach, right? So we've got what, Y-cross and mesh and a lot of air raid concepts. And you see that on Caleb's tape.

So now projecting him forward, how does Caleb develop as a post-snap quarterback? I know he can do it. I've seen him do it. But getting better and more controlled and more consistent, I feel like that's kind of the crux of determining how high Caleb can ascend in the NFL. And, I mean, that and the fumbles. Ball security has to be better. But the main thing is the post-snap, because we know he can move around and create. and all that, but within structure, working post-snap, can he do it?

To me, that's kind of what's going to hinge on him becoming, living up to that immense potential that he has. And this is going to be a huge part of this conversation. And we can start it right now. This idea of him getting to second reads within the offense, Nate, there were so many games this season where he didn't even have time to get to second reads within the offense. And I think that's why this becomes so naughty because you see these flashes of talent and feel and these things you want to attach yourself to.

But what it looked like in college is inevitably going to look different. It's going to be different than it's going to look like in the pros, even if he succeeds. So that's why with a guy like this, to me, there's so much projection in what the best version him would look like in the NFL when you take those college tools. So, Nate, when you were looking at him, you had him as your 1B prospect, you know, throughout this entire process. I think that says more about your feelings about Drake May than it does your feelings about Caleb Williams.

So when he's that one B guy for you and a top five guy in this class, what are those traits that stand out that put him that elite tier of quarterback prospects for you? When it is clean and he can operate like a normal quote unquote quarterback, he can just drop back, go on time, do a typical straight dropback with no play action, no screens, no RPO-ness to the offense, just straight drop back, five and seven-step stop. It's as clean as anyone I've watched in a recent memory. as far as clean as far as footwork, clean as far as timing,

clean as far as accuracy. It's the same compliments. I feel like I was giving Stroud last year. But the thing with Stroud was, can he create? Why isn't he doing all this? Well, Caleb,

what does he get praised for? Well, we know he can do all the creation stuff. The underrated portion, and I even underrated him, I would say, even after watching him last year, even watching during the season,

until I studied them, and I've mentioned this before, I studied in one game after another and just saw that professionalism, I guess, is a good way. That screamed to me as a professional quarterback that it is a straight dropback. He can handle that. He can handle getting to a high low. I agree with what Dane said.

There's times. It's like, maybe just hang in there for an extra second. Like, maybe get to that too. But he does do it where I'm not like where it's Malik Willis, where I'm like, he never does it. I've never saw him once do it, where we've never saw him once progressed, never saw him ever do that. I see him do it. It just has to be consistent. So I agree with Dane. I think there's going to be some ramp up. What can I get away with? What can I get away with? Every quarterback goes. through that. Some quarterbacks, game one is Cam Newton going for 400 yards and going nuclear. And oh, I can get away with this. This is great. And some are the other way. Trevor Lawrence, his whole rookie year, all those types of things. And then they can develop after that. So I watch

him the in-pocket, just cleanliness is what stands out to me, the accuracy that he plays with and top of the creation stuff. So I've talked about before. It's just like, I think that gets underrated with some of these crazy elite quarterbacks that we watch right now is the down to down to singles and doubles that they can get. He can do it. I've seen it on tape. I just think it's going to be some transition because he's got some, you know, he's got some wounds open.

He's got some, you know, some battle scars from what he had to go through at USC. There's so many times one offensive line was losing. And it's just like, you can see he hits his back of his drop. And he's like, all right, here I go again. Like, Jew crossover, all right, sidearm throw. But he couldn't even get to his first read, much less his second read. So I just want to see him in an NFL. And I know NFL pockets are always going to be like this.

It's going to be better than what he went through at USC. which is crazy to say, because that's how poor it was at times, that he couldn't operate that way. This is one of those moments, Dane, where me coming to it a little bit late and with no preconceived notions, I found it fascinating what I opened up with him because when you look at the time to throw

and you hear some of the ways that people talk about him, I expected it to be a really chaotic experience from his end, where he would be this chaotic quarterback who had these really flashy, high-level moments. And you watch it, and that's not really what it is. Like, he holds onto the ball for a very long, time, but the stat that jumped out to me when I was looking at all of them, he had the longest time to scramble number of any player in major college football last year, according to PFF.

It was 6.57 seconds on average before he scrambled. He moves around a lot, but he's trying to move around so he can find space within the pocket to throw the ball. So even if there are maybe numbers or quick explanations of who he is that make you think he's a chaotic player. I tend to agree with Nate where there's less chaotic kind of all over the place aspects to his game that it might seem at first glance. There's no doubt. And I agree with both of you. So I always remember this line, the very first line of the movie departed. Jack Nicholson, his character is saying, I don't want to be a product of my environment. I want my environment

to be a product of me. And I think with Caleb, it's kind of a fine line because you want to play to what the defense gives you, but not at the cost of sacrificing what makes you such a talented quarterback. And with Caleb, his football awareness and his instincts are so just natural and rare. It's so impressive. It really is. And, you know, and I think there's, so there's, so there's a lot more method to the madness than him just running around and, you know, with trying to create something when he doesn't need to. And a great example of this is from the Utah tape. there's a play in the second half, third and four. The play was designed for a quick throw to branch,

the really talented freshman. He was working out of the slot, and he's supposed to run to the stick, sit down, easy target, move the chains. He runs three yards. So he's not at the sticks yet. And then he had another defender driving on him. William sees it, pulls it back, doesn't throw it,

and by this point, the left tackle is already in his lap. So, you know, he just has to create that point. Exactly. Right. So he avoids, he does a little dance. and then he works to his left and finds a receiver at the sideline, makes this ridiculous throw. And so this is the type of play where you put it on Twitter and he gets killed because it's like,

oh, well, that's not going to translate. And oh, why do you have to make it so difficult? You know, why isn't he playing from the pocket, you know, from that first read? And it just, it's, he made the right call because in his mind, he made this split second decision that, hey, I have a better chance of getting a first down by doing this. And so, again, I think this is a common thing with that Lincoln Riley system. First read isn't there. Quarterbacks often ask to be on the move, but a big part of it was the lack of protection.

He felt like he had to do it more times than not. And so Caleb is a fun watch in a lot of different ways. Sometimes it's frustrating. The Notre Dame tape showed some of the negative aspects of that. So it's not all great with Caleb Williams, but there's certainly more reasons to be optimistic than not. the Oregon game there was a really good example of that it was third and ten and he was hot I think coming off the left side and there was a guy running just a hitch from the slot and he turns it down but the guy was short of the sticks so he extends going all the way to his right and then

throws back across his body for a first down and you're watching that play it's like I don't know what to do with that because he probably should throw it immediately but his decision not to throw it ultimately leads to an explosive play that creates a first down so Nate the terms that you used I think that's the right way to think about it is, is this something where when he learns where the third rail is and where the guardrails exist and what he can get away with, we're going to settle into a player who can channel his superpower and not overextend himself? Or is that overextension just a product of who he is and is going to be moving forward? I don't know the answer to that, but I think it's one of the central questions. I think your time to throw stat

and time to scramble stat, that's why I'm optimistic about Caleb's just understanding of playing quarterback. Again, there's difference between being a thrower and an athlete and playing quarterback and the intelligence that goes into it and the understanding. There is some point guard to us. Sometimes I got a score. I got to take it to the wreck because I got a good match up. And sometimes it's like, I'm going to pass it 15 times to my teammates and never shoot. That's what the quarterback sometimes have to figure out what, you know, that sliding scale. So why that time to throw one was so interesting. And we'll talk about the other end of this, a different quarterback in this class where this, I think, is a negative in his regard, is that Caleb is trying, he's doing

something that translates. He's working to find a throw. He's not working and his eyes come down. Scrant, no, scrambles add up as far as taking hits, as far as just the what's the strain to us to your offense align. There's a lot of good that happens with scrambling, but in the NFL, you have to pick

and choose your spots. We see so many quarterbacks have to go through that. Josh Allen's the best example I think of it. Mahomes is the most timely scrambler. Compare that to what he was at Texas Tech. So, but I'm watching, I watch Williams, I watch Caleb. All those, he's trying to find throwing lanes. He's not just going scramble, scramble, eyes down. I'm going to

juke a bunch of guys. Sometimes he has to, but I think that's why I'm optimistic that this wildness to his game, the controlled chaos, translates better than we usually see with runaround guys that I typically see. I think that's the stuff that translates because that's the stuff that's very real in the NFL. You only could take so many hits at the quarterback position. Dan, I think your point about the feel and the awareness is so right. When you watch him play, even the way he motivates the pocket, there's an awareness of where pressure is coming from, where the alleys he can step into are going to be. Nate, there were a couple plays. I saw him using Cadence getting free plays in college.

Like, that's the type of stuff or the throwaways. He has so many smart throwaways to not take negative plays. So there are so many aspects to that where I do think his awareness, football intelligence, IQ is really elevated to an elite level. But, Dane, where do you think the other superpowers are? Like the guy, the things that make him the number one overall pick, outside of the awareness, what do you think those traits look like to you? yeah i mean that awareness is such a big part of it like rPO zone reads i mean he has just a really good feel for that um but like nate was saying he is he's naturally accurate he really is and he the way he can layer throws or drive throws it's still accurate um he uses the entire field it's not like a guy that

leans on a specific zone where he has to throw to his left has to work over the middle he can use the the whole field is his playground so um i and i think he's comfortable throwing before receivers are out of their break or even going into their break he can anticipate. Like you mentioned eyes are always up. He's going to be at his best with receivers that are very talented or very, they work

well with scramble drill because that's his teammates call it baller mode. That's where, you know, he would really kind of shine and do his best. D.J. Moore, got some good practice last year. There you go. He did not throw an interception on third or fourth

down at USC. I thought that was pretty telling. So, you know, he does a lot of things really well that, and even him as a rush or two. Like, you don't think of, I don't think we think of him as this, it's almost like a base runner in baseball where you don't have to be the fastest to steal bases and turn a single into a hustle double. You know, you just have to have the instinct. And I think he has that where he's not going to run the fastest 40, but he understands, he led USC in rushing touchdowns each of the last two years. he understands how to get the yards that are there, and he is a good athlete.

So I think that when you take everything that he brings mentally, the passing ability, him as an athlete, you put it all together, and there's a lot of things to be encouraged about. He's a great example that athleticism shows up in different ways with players. It's not just speed. It's not just running the fastest forward. Balance. His contact balance is rare.

He's so much stronger than I expected him to be. That was something that really jumped out to me because he's only six one, and I think the size concerns, again, just coming to this totally cold, and then I watched him move through arm tackles and his lower half is like a lot thicker than I expected it to be.

So again, those little subtle bits of movement and athleticism and explosiveness, there were just more of those than I expected when I turned it on. Yeah, again, feel, balance. He passed the size threshold for me. I harp on this a couple times later in the show, but that's what speaks.

You watch them, and it's just, he's pulling out arm grabs. he's pulling away from tacklers, he's bouncing off guys to the sideline. And another thing with him, and this is what got kind of frustrating during the season, especially after they lost

and, you know, he's crying with his parents and everything. This dude is tough as hell. He is, his competitive toughness is very, very good. It's what you want from your freaking franchise QB because, yeah, you're not going to always run a guy over.

How many times, I don't say, maybe three, four or five times, I see him at the goal line trying to truck a guy. And that's another thing where you see his strength and his real, just true athletic grit come up. Well, he grew up as a running back and a linebacker. He never lost that mentality.

So in middle school, he was a running back and linebacker, and you can still see him with the look in his eyes where, yeah, if I have a chance to get that first down or get that end zone, I'm going to do it. So, yeah, there's no question. Dan, this is a lot of positive spin. This is a lot of why we think he can be a high-level quarterback. Paint me the picture of why he does not translate

and why he doesn't end up working out in the NFL. I mean, you have to look at the fumbles. I think that's a big part of this. He holds the ball loose. It's in 33 career fumbles, I believe it is. 16 of them, in 33 total in college, 16 of them came this past season as a junior. So it's something that has to get better, has to be better at that. You know, there are times where I feel like he is bypassing the single or the double looking for the home run.

You know, like in his mind, it's like, okay, yeah, I have. could take this, but I think this is going to come open. And it's just something where, like we've been talking about, he needs to learn to balance that and understand. And this is, this part of it is definitely the devil's advocate part. But the crying in the stands, I don't care. That tells me how how much he cares. It's a positive. The painted nails don't care. A lot of the stuff off the field, not a big deal. If he doesn't make it, I think at least part of it will be because the fact that he wants to be the JZ of the NFL. He wants to be this big entrepreneur.

And that's all great as long as you're winning, right? Based off of what NFL teams say about them, or what teammates have said to teams, they're not worried about him as a teammate. Sounds like he's a great teammate. But it's more about some of those outside interests and making sure he's taking care of the winning first and foremost before really diving into some of those outside ventures.

That's the one thing we don't know, right? Even if you hear secondhand accounts from teammates, secondhand account from coaches, the way that guys are wired is such a huge difference between being a very good quarterback in the NFL and being a killer who wins multiple MVP's and is considered one of the greatest players of all time already, like Mahomes is. And that's the comparison that was made a lot just in terms of play style. But the wiring is ultimately going to matter. And Kyle Murray is a very good NFL quarterback. I think if Caleb Williams ends up becoming Kyler Murray, which we can talk about here in a second,

that is probably a win for the Chicago Bears. Kyle or Murray is not wired like Patrick Mahomes. And so where you end up falling along that spectrum, the approach that you take day to day. After Mahomes won the Super Bowl this year, the first thing he said on the podium is we're going to win three. It's the first thing he said. And that difference between what guys do

and the discipline that comes along with how they approach the job every day, there's no way for us to know that until we see it in practice with him when he gets to the league. Or you lose five games in a row and you have a three-pick game on Sunday or Monday night and how it bounced back. Yeah, no, that's, it's for every athlete, but especially a quarterback, especially when you're a number one pick, especially when you have all this riding on you. He's handled it.

I've thought fairly well. I actually is, it's one of those things where it's kind of self-fulfilling prophecy a little bit, or I kind of like what you want out of the answer. It's like, oh, if this guy, if I really like him and he's talking about his branding and himself as a as a player as bigger as a business comma man, you know, I'm a business man. like that is like if you like if you like him you go that's awesome this guy's got a vision he's got a world he's got a worldview if you don't like him you go he's distracted doesn't love football so again again you don't know until you meet the guy until you see it but we'll never know until the first year kind of breaks out the second year breaks out how all things go outside of the stuff that that the dane said Nate is there anything else that is in the back of your mind that gives you

pause anything that you think could lead to maybe him falling a little bit short of those expectations. It's just that we always project, including myself, that's like, I've seen that the glimpses of you throwing over the middle, throwing on time, not turning stuff down to chase a bigger play, it's like, you do that, they just, that doesn't become more consistent. And then it becomes just, okay, he leans into the chaos too much. He's pressing all the time. So maybe it's a slower start and that kind of cycles on itself. You know, he's going to a big city. Chicago media, if we've seen anything from this draft process, is very invested in this pick. Holy crap. fans, chill. But it's no, but I think really that's what it is. It's just a spiral. Situations

we can say, oh, this is going to be a good spot. You just don't know what goes from that. So I'd say just maybe toning down the aggressiveness. Some of the sack taking, I would say the glass half full of that is what we talked about with their offensive line. He's always looking to throw instead of scramble. But maybe he comes too slow to finding that balance. Some guys never find it. Some guys do. Some guys find it that works for them. If he doesn't find that balance, that works for him. I'm incredibly optimistic after watching him. I'm excited. I can't wait to watch him play every week. My biggest thing is there is a significant gap, even if you are optimistic about him, between what we saw at USC and what down-to-down effective quarterback play in the

NFL looks like. And I think that's for a lot of reasons. It's his tendency to try to create, but it's also just the sheer amount of RPO's in play action. Like, there just was not a lot of what you're going to see on Sunday, and there was not a lot of playing on time. You can construe that as a positive. You can construe that as a negative. But even if you want to take the rosy look at it, it still involves a projection. you still have to extrapolate the skills, the traits, and the talent because it's not going to be a one-to-one comparison. So I think that gap in what we saw and what we're hoping to see, there's no way to know how he bridges that gap. But that's what this process is about.

And there's more learning curve coming from that offense than with other quarterbacks, too. And not because it's anything on the player. It's just that the timing is different. They do a lot of one and done, you've already talked about, but one and done shot plays, heavy play action, super designer guy running, and it's like seven seconds, it's like, Jesus, Lincoln. But that's also why so often he was holding out of the ball, because when those designer plays weren't open,

which they weren't open a lot this year, he has to go into creation mode. So I think that's part of the issue. And the Oregon game sticks out to me too, where even on plays that aren't designer plays, they're daring them to beat them. It's like press man single high the entire game and no one can get open.

So this idea of, well, he goes into creation mode too often. He had to. He had to do it so many different times. So it's just so many different things to untangle in this conversation. 240 of his dropbacks the last two years were longer than four seconds. 240. And that just basically sums up what you guys just said. If you're trying to paint the best case scenario for him as a player, Dane, what would that look like for you? I think it's some version of Aaron Rogers and maybe not peak MVP Aaron Rogers, but some version of that, where it's, the body balance is always in a ready to throw position with velocity, with accuracy, the poise, the football instincts.

And again, I think he's a better athlete than given credit. So some version of Aaron Rogers is the rosiest outlook for Caleb. And I would some version of Drew Breeze for mine. So if you want pretty high, lofty comparisons here, Breese was a better athlete than people remember. You gotta get 2018 breeze out of everyone's head. Remember, freaking San Diego Chargers Purdue Breeze. This guy was running around like crazy. I understand that people are trying not to say Mahomes' name as part of this process. There are Mahomesian aspects to the way that he plays.

And for me, it's the awareness is what sticks out, and it's the creativity from the pocket. We've brought about this up so many different times over the last six months or so, but this idea of pocket playmaking, where what does the, what do the creative aspects of your game look like from the pocket specifically? That involves pocket movement, pocket manipulation, changing arm angles, changing throwing platforms, all of that. That's what he is. Like if I'm going to sit here and talk about that being the most important aspect of quarterback play and that being the consistent aspect of all of these elite guys,

then that's what he has. Like that is the selling point for him. So I do think that the highest level of this is him being a top two, three quarterback in a league for a very long time and being somebody that can win multiple MVP awards. And maybe I have to tell myself, that story, but that's exactly where I come down. And I think I see this stuff pretty soberly for the most part.

I wouldn't tell myself that if I didn't think that there was a real chance it was true. But on the flip side of this game, what do you think is the worst case scenario for how this can play out? It's kind of like some version of Justin Fields, right? I mean, there's different players, but you think about the fumbles,

you think about not consistently reading out the full field from the pocket or some of those things. But I think he's too talented to be just a Zach Wilson type of bust? I don't think that's in his future. And the awareness is too high.

Wilson had so much projection to him as opposed to Caleb where you see it already. I certainly see this stuff. Somebody said that to me on the internet last week where there's a lot of Zach Wilson to it. If you go back and watch Zach Wilson at BYU, you did not see him navigate a single muddy pocket in five games that you watch. No. He didn't have to.

He never had to. He never had to. And the fact that we saw Caleb Williams have to do that every single game, that's why the floor to me is just so much higher than some of these other guys because we've had to see him operate in shitty situations. In the funniest way, his boringness of his game makes me think his floor is so much higher than people realize. Like the boring aspect of his game, not all the exciting stuff, the boring stuff,

the singles and doubles that he does take or have seen him take, that's what makes me think, just like as Dane said, it's like, I don't know if I could see just a bottom where it's like, yeah, total bust here. I feel like there's like a little Kyler to what he does, just like the run, they're running around, the size, like somewhere along the line, it's like a less athletic like a less athletic like a less athletic

like be a worst case scenario because Kyle was athleticism drives so much of what makes him a special player but that's kind of where I landed. Like to me there's like a diet Kyler to Mahomes spectrum that he can exist on

and I'm just not exactly sure where he falls between those two holes and extremes. Yeah, there really is no apples to apples like comparison here. It's just shades of this, shades of that and he's his own one-to-one player.

It really is. All right, Nate, it's time. It's Drake May time on the Athletic Football Show. We've been building to this for a very long time. Still love Caleb. I want to make this clear before we get into the Drake May conversation. Everything that you just said, that is a very optimistic look at what Caleb Williams can be. But for you, Drake May is still the best quarterback prospect and the best prospect in this class.

Why do you think that Drake May is just one small, slight step above Caleb Williams as you're projecting them moving forward? be aggressive, be be aggressive. That is, I watch Drake May, and I know we're going to talk about in a sec, but I watch him and I see his game more from the elite quarterbacks than I do with the other guys. Even Caleb a little bit, of course, but as far as size, as far as athleticism, as far as arm strength, as far as the type of throws he prefers to throw, which is a lot of stuff downfield, a lot of stuff over the middle and just whipping it and eyes downfield, everything we talked about with Caleb Williams, his eyes are always downfield.

I think May has gotten underrated with some of his creativity and some of his athleticism. I actually think he's faster than Caleb Williams, which I don't think should be a shocker. He is. Yeah, at 225 pounds, give a take. I think, yeah, he's a fantastic scrambler. I think he's a smart scrambler as well. He's not a guy that's just going to run for the hell of it. And this year where people are bringing up a lot of his scramble nervous, it's everything we talk about Caleb in his situation.

Same with May. He was not getting a lot of help around him, especially. this year, whether it's scheme, receivers, or offense-al-line play. I think watching him, though, watching this package of size, athleticism, arm strength, and I actually think the mental ability is way higher than I think people have given him credit for. He's already handling protections without looking at the sideline. That's a big thing in college. You'll see the fake cadence, the clap.

Everyone at one time looks at the sideline, and then the quarterback walks to the offensive line and tells him he's getting told what to do. May is checking into things against blitzes. he's maneuvering. Of course, that's part of the game plan. He's not just doing it. But the fact that they're giving him that onto his menu, onto his plate as a redshirt sophomore is why, is another aspect of this game is why I'm so optimistic about it. It's like the fact that they're doing that already is a great, great sign. So it's just this combination of like, I see him, I see a lot of his game with what I see with a lot of the elite guys, not the Mahomes is, but, you know, the Herbert's,

a little bit of the Josh Allen, even a little bit some of the other guys that you see up there, like even a little bit Deshawn Watson in his prime, because it's not in his prime right now. But it's, but those guys where it's just aggressive, sometimes a little too much so, but I'd rather have that rein it back in. So I just watch them play after play, keep battling, bring his team back, toughness, athleticism. It's just everything I like in a quarterback and just one player right there. So yeah, it's been May day since last May for me. It's just, I tried.

Even during the season, I was trying to be like, all right, am I doing this again or I just get suckered in. And it's like, I kept watching games, even his quote-unquote bad games. I'm just seeing a lot of positives in it where it's not just a total outright terribleness. I actually think his worst games against Minnesota, which I have yet to see anybody say. So that was his worst game. And not NC State, not Clemson, because I did see positives in that game. But the Minnesota game, which some of those interceptions in the Minnesota game, yeah, they were rough. He checked game. He was trying to, he was trying from some stuff. And I was like, and that was early in the season. And again, he's young. He's younger than Caleb. And so,

that's there's just again there's a lot of boxes that he checks that i think he's good or better that i'm just like it to me it's more i wouldn't say none of these guys are ever going to be no brainers but for me it's like it's easy to give him a high grade because of all the stuff you can do and dana you're not as high on him as nate is but you're very high on him you have him as a top five prospect you haven't missed the second best quarterback in this class kind of a no brainer top five pick where do you think you and nate maybe diverge a little bit where you don't have him quite that high, but you're still optimistic about him. You know, because there was a point midseason in October when I moved them up as my top

quarterback and top player in the draft. And some of the things, some of the reaction to pressure, some of the things down the stretch just really bothered me. It kind of, you know, the NC state tape, the Clemson tape. There were times on those, and it wasn't all bad, especially because he wasn't getting a ton of help. But there were enough things on those tapes that, all right, yeah, That's where I have got a little bit of reservation, and it's not like, you know, and Caleb was still Caleb. And so, okay, Caleb's still the top guy. But with May, what I love about his film is you can see the full inventory of throws. If you want to see, you want to see the bang eight, okay.

You want to see opposite hash? All right, he can do it. And he put it out there. Pretty much any type of throw, he's done it over the last two seasons. He's got the fluid explosive release. He can alter ball speeds really well. it's pretty natural for him. Dot throws on the move.

You can see that he understands timing with some of the ways that he attacks leverage. And to your point, Nate, I think he's a very underrated athlete. He was a studs shortstop in high school. He was one of the best players on the basketball team in high school. And you watch his ability to create with the ball in his hands. He's one of the best third down scramblers. I can remember doing this. So the last two years,

he has 42 first down carries on third or fourth down. It's a crazy number. In terms of just 10 plus yard runs, only Jane Daniels has more the last two years at college football. So I love the toughness. And it goes back to my older brother theory. He grew up with a household of athletes. His dad was a stud quarterback.

His three older brothers, college athletes. And he, so he was the youngest and he's playing up a level trying to keep up. and the family calls him the most competitive guy in the family. So he's a quick reaction athlete. Now, again, the action, again, I love the reaction, but the action's not always the positive that, you know, you want to see. But again, nothing about his game is slow or passive. I'll bet on what he offers every day of the week.

6.4.5, 225 to be as twitchy and as slithery as he is, I just did not expect that. And that jumps off every time you watch him. And that point about the scrambles, Dane, that is what elite quarterbacks look like in the NFL in 2024. You need to be able to get those with your legs. It is a non-negotiable part of playing the position at the highest level. You need to be one of those guys that demoralizes defenses when they glove everything up on third Nate. And he seems to be one of those guys. Nate, I was watching the Duke game when I was watching the first like three quarters.

And I was just like, all right, like I get it. You know, like it's the guy, the arm is insane. and he's such a fluid mover and he's such a great athlete. And there was a two-play stretch where he had a 45-yard handoff on a goal ball down the right side line. And then on this, it was maybe one or two plays later, he resets and throws a ball to the end zone that the wide receiver couldn't hang on to. But it was an absolute missile shot. And then on that same drive, he had a key third-down scramble. And then there was like a slot-fade missile for a touchdown to take the lead.

This is a one-score game against your rival late in the season. And I just started laughing. I'm watching on the plane and on the way the owner's meetings. I'm just started laughing because I'm thinking about you and I'm thinking about what you want out of these guys and the fact that he is everything you could possibly want in a quarterback prospect. Yeah, it's, I'm going to compare him to the guy. Maybe he's just on my brain. It's like, I grew up with Dante Cole Pepper. So you got to understand what type of guys I prefer.

Like this guy, you're not going to get a lot of peps again, a lot of six, four, two hundred and sixty pounders with that set the accuracy record in college and all that. But it's that combination of stuff and the creativity. I kind of was early in the year when everyone was kind of making fun of me going, oh, a major guy. I was trying to really emphasize. Like, this guy has some lobotomy to his game. He's got some wonkiness, some funkiness. He'll throw left-hand passes.

He'll throw, like, oak shots. I'd like that, though. I do, too. That's what I mean. It's just that stuff has gotten underrated. I think everyone's like, oh, this guy's a big arm dummy. They watch him. They're like, oh, Blet's over here, just launch him to go balls.

Wow. Of course you like him, Nate. It's all that other stuff that he does. And the scheme woe stuff where it's, that's what I would really want to talk to him. Actually, Underdog Fantasy did a great job. They had to sit down with him with Cole McCoy. So that was my interview process with Drake May. I was watching that video.

But hearing him talk through stuff, there's a couple times where, you know, he's going, I'm glad he talked about one place. He was going to get Syracuse. He went coast to coast with a reed, meaning he went sideline to sideline. Usually for me, that's a no-go. Why I was low on Malik Willis. Again, I'm bringing his name up. it's because he did that every play.

That to mean, you don't know where to find your answer. You're just, someone come open, and someone come open. All right, throw. So I was like,

I watched that. I was like, huh, I'm giving you all these props for your mental side. Why are you doing that? And he explains, that was the read. That's what we do,

which whole conversation about North Carolina's offense that we can have on a subverside that is not what you should be doing, but the fact that he executed it on third down, backed up. It's like, the fact that he's getting asked to do these hard things

and he's accomplishing them. It's the Georgia Tech game, not sure he watched it, just throw after throw it's 25 yards down to field 30 yards down to field 20 years seams corners like all these if we saw a quarterback in the NFL

throw two of those in the game we'd freak out and he threw like a dozen of them so that's where again it's the high endness and I think the seal or I'm sorry the floor is a little higher than I think people are giving them credit for and that it's not just a total project stuff and I sure we'll talk about that in a sec

but the lobonomy thing I think that there's so many people who've watched Justin Herbert over the last three or four years and wish they could put Josh Allen's brain and Justin Herbert's body. And I don't think we're all the way there with Drake May, but I think there are aspects to his game where it looks like you put Josh Allen's brain in Justin Herbert's body. And I think that even if there are downsides to playing that way and being a little bit wild, I would rather see a guy that I have to rein back because he's so aggressive and he's

trying to make plays than having to go the other way. And just even in the three or four games that I watched, I think it's, I think it was more than that. But even in the games that I watched, I think that's very apparent. But there are people who see him as more of a project and see him as more of a projection than you certainly do, Nate, and I think even you do, Dane. So, Dan, as you're thinking about some of the criticisms of his game and maybe aspects that people think he has to go a little bit further than people who are optimistic about him, what are those weaknesses that you're most concerned about? I think his issues are basically rooted in his tendency to make bad plays worse. So, you know, there are times where it feels like there's 20 mental tabs open at once, especially when he's blitzed.

You know, there's... 20 mental tabs open at once is beautiful. I love that. It is. I don't know, good. I've been saving that one. But it feels like, so, okay, like completion percentage with a quarterback. I always like to look at when you're blitzed and when you're not blitzed. And what is the difference in the number between those two numbers? So, you know, for example, with Caleb, his number, his in-betonings, his in-betonings,

number six. So when he's, everything is clean and they get 70% completions when he's blitz is 64%. With May, the difference is 16. Because when he's, everything's clean, when everything's great, it's, it's up there, his completion percentage. But when he's blitzed, his completion percentage this past year was 52.6%. Now, again, there are so many factors here. There are times where maybe he's not picking up the pressure pre-snap, but there are other times where it's completely on his offensive line or completely, completely. the honors receiver. So there's plenty of context involved here. But I also think we have to point to the fact that he lost 181 targets from his top two receivers last year. The offensive line

looks very different in 2023 than it did in 2022. So I think quarterbacks get put on the pedestals. And when we saw what we did on the 2022 tape and then there's all these expectations for 23, I think it's easy for those coming into it to say, okay, well, I thought he was this, it's supposed to be this great thing. And here he's throwing this interception. And he's fumbling against Virginia. He's doing, you know, what was that decision about? But, you know, a phrase that I can't, that really stuck home with for me when I was scouting Jordan Love at Utah State was, okay, because there was a similar situation with him in terms of just the supporting cast and everything around him not going as great in his final season compared to his previous year. But

when you look at his shortcomings, am I making reason, are these reasons or excuses, and making sure that you're differentiating correctly? So, you know, generally speaking, when he gets heated up from pressure, there are times where it's, and it's not just his feet that get a little fast, it's his mind. So a juiced up arm, a racing mind, and that's what leads to mistakes and decisions that he knows he probably shouldn't make. And with experience, will he learn to play more controlled, I think so, but that's the projection. That's the hope. Me, I'm going to bet on that all day. I'm going to bet on the physical skill set. I'm going to bet on the smarts. I'm a bet on the competitive toughness. But I understand that's some, not everyone's willing to do that. And that's why,

the biggest reason why I think some are looking at him as more of a project than maybe we are here. The one other thing I noticed, Nate, and I'm curious what you think about this, just there are some misses that kind of leave you scratching your head where he'll sail a throw here or there. And one of the aspects that I thought was correlated to that is he'll drift and bounce in the pocket in ways that are sometimes unnecessary. Where with Caleb, it feels like he's trying to find space and I'll watch May and it's like, well, why are you having to take two hops to your left when there's no one in your lap? And they're on those plays. That's where a lot of those kind of misses come from. So the volatility with the pressure was one thing, but there's some things just in terms

of watching him move in the pocket in some of those throws where I was like, I just don't understand why that's necessary. He can be exaggerated. I think that's a good way to put it Like he, I think there is the good and bad of, hey, he drifts because he knows where he is going to get heated up from or where he thinks there's a weakness in the pressure or under protection. But I think I agree with you that sometimes it's like, okay, you don't have to drift all the way past the left tackle. You know, just maybe more one or two steps and then throw. So I agree with you on that. I do think there is some, I think the footwork stuff, I've already talked about this before last week, some of the annoyances, has gotten overblown. But I'm not saying that's not there, like that he has.

I'm not saying he has footwork is pristine. Some of that does have to get cleaned up. I think some of the offensive system that he'll be in and the pros will help that, as opposed to whatever this offense was. Coast to coast to coast reads. Coast to coast reads, seven-step dropbacks with quick game footwork, just like, I don't know. It was just all over the place.

So there was not, there's throws that translate, but there wasn't concepts that translate, if that kind of makes sense. So that is where there's going to be some growth with him. But that's where I see. I understand where people are saying the footwork stuff. But to me, it was like, well, everyone says that's coachable, right? And he's doing all this.

And he has quote unquote bad footwork that needs to be worked on, quote unquote. Well, that's awesome because that means there's room to grow. We're saying that he's not perfect and that he's already doing all this. So the inconsist of footwork, the heat check stuff. I think it's actually improved compared to last year. Last year he did a lot of the Madden drop that I always kind of got on Baker Mayfield for doing this, where he went backwards in the pocket trying to find a throw, he's a way better athlete than Baker.

And it's a way better arm. Way better arm. Can't do that in the NFL? You can if you're, you know, beating a cover zero and you're launching something deep, but defensive ends are just too fast, too good. They'll beat the offense tackles. You're dead.

So I think he already improved on that, still has to work on that just a little bit. I especially, I think just what Dana was saying, when he feels like he has to press, and he always feels like he has to hit a home run. He always just is looking for the deep ball. When he's playing against a blitz, the protection stuff wasn't great. They would leave a lot of free runners.

It was good that he was showing he can beat free runners. But then I thought that led to some bad habits where he's trying to go, right, and just getting the first down. He's like, no, I'm getting a freaking touchdown. Let's go for it. That's where some of the accuracy stuff comes out. That's where a little too aggressive that you have to hone in. And I don't know, I just, I see that.

Again, I'd rather, like you just said, Robert, I'd rather rein that back in than go to the other way with a checkdown Charlie. That's like, yeah, he'll beat a tackle, right? being too aggressive will lead to better opportunities if there are negatives that come with it. A home run hitter is going to strike out once in a while. So that's why, again, I am more optimistic, more glass hatful on this than maybe other people are. Dan, I'll start with you on this question because I think that's probably the better way to do it. What do you think is the best case scenario for Drake May as an NFL player?

My comp has always been Justin Herbert. Now, it's not an apples-to-apples thing. There are enough little differences in their games, but I think with what, just, Justin Herbert can be in the NFL, absolutely. I think that Drake May can grow into that. There are definitely some similarities in their game physically and mentally. But I do think that, yeah, May even has a little more of that, you know, screw you, watch this type of mentality. And so, but yeah, Justin Herbert is the first name that came to mind for me.

And I, obviously anybody, or there's what, probably 28 teams that would love to have Justin Herbert right now. Justin Herbert with the fuck you edge I like that I'll say it I actually like that as a projection I like that as a player but a little more aggressive

to make up for it yeah yeah it's not bad it's not bad all right is that yours or where are you gonna go in a different direction I haven't found like a comparison I like

because he's not the same size it doesn't even have to be a player comp I'm just talking about like the type of player he becomes yeah you know DJ Daniel Jeremiah throughout Carson Palmer

West Summer and I like that one I think May is a little better athlete than Carson was and but I see some of that where it's like I would love to see him in a Bruce Ariens offense if that still exists in the NFL where he's just launching stuff down the field. That was one that stuck with me where I was like, yeah, I kind of get that one a lot. I have not, I think stylistically, yeah, it's the Herbert stuff with, I don't know, I keep coming back to Deshaun a little bit,

Deshawn a little bit, when he, you know, when he was with the Texans and was looking, battling for MVP's, that, there's a little bit of that to him where he was just like almost overly aggressive and it was like, okay, this is cool, creativity. all that. The line drive throwerness at least to some sprays. So I see the Herbert comparison with that. Yeah, like Herbert is the best comparison. It's just been me trying to battle finding somewhat different, but it is the best comparison. Even throwing style, even their throwing motion looks similar and the misses look similar because they throw, they throw that line drive. That's, it's something I got on with Ritter, Tanna Hill, Herbert. The misses look so bad that people go, well, they're not accurate. It's more just that one miss is so bad. It's missing a, missing a pitch by 10 feet. And everyone's like, what was that?

That was my issue is that there are throws. A lot of them outside the numbers where he'll just like miss a hitch by like five yards over a guy's head. And I'm like, what the hell is happening? But it doesn't happen that often. They're just kind of head scratching when they do. It's the miss happens and it's such a bad miss that everyone goes, oh, he's not accurate. It's like, no, it's just that he misses bad. It's just one of those guys. But I don't think I agree. Randy Johnson. Randy Johnson. Yeah. John Kruck. He's going to throw him on John Krug's head every once in a while, Larry Walker. But no, I don't even think, like, I haven't and his accuracy, it's not Caleb's.

Again, I think is excellent on the grading scale. One of the top guys I've watched recently. But Mays, I would put good on the grading scale. And I would say his deep accuracy and intermediate accuracy is very good. His deep accuracy is wild. Yeah, accuracy with his arm strength, with what he does, that's a pretty awesome combination. Again, that's why I ended up so high on him. What do you think the worst case scenario is, Dan?

So I'm going to use a comp that a scout gave me that this is who he thinks he is. He thinks he's a shorter Brock Osweiler. Oh, God. That's mean. Go ahead, Robert. I want to hear your reaction to that. Brock Osweiler was so stiff, man. I know, I know.

This is, they could watch the guy move for like a game. I don't understand that at all. I don't either. I don't, I pushed back and he mentioned, I think it was Connor Cook maybe and Brock Osw. You could tell he wasn't a fan. Coach Connor Cook. No. And so I just wanted to bring up those.

That is worst, worst case, but I don't, yeah, I disagree on, I don't think they're similar players. I can't see that happening. But just wanted to bring those names up as names that were brought up to me from a scout, at least what they saw. I think his athleticism gives him so much more of a high floor than guys like that. When we're talking about these 6667 guys that cannot move, it's just a different type of player than I think you're watching with the Drake Mae personally. because I just think the athleticism gives him such a different, so many more avenues to problem solving than a lot of those other big, stiff quarterbacks

that have come along. I just don't see that at all. I already talked about this a little bit with the footwork stuff where it's like if we're saying he's accomplishing this without perfect footwork, look at the room to grow. He's an athlete. That's why it's easy to project growth. It's like an offensive line being talented or a receiver.

And you're like, well, he has room to grow because he is so athletic. And another thing, Dane mentioned his three sport, This guy wasn't going to QB camps every day since sixth grade. He was playing three sports. There's still room to project him. That's why there's some guys that have been in QB camps and they only play quarterback since sixth grade onwards.

They're maxed out. They're maxed out as players, footwork wise or mechanics wise, because they've been coached, sometimes overcoached in some ways. That's why May has some of that FU creativeness to it because he's never, he hasn't been pounded into his brain. No, you only do this. You only do this. He's like, I'm an athlete.

I'm just going to make plays. And again, that's why it's easier to project. If you want my downside comparison. I wasn't even going to ask you. Jay Cutler is probably my. Oh, I like that. I actually like that a lot. Jay Caldware, some F you throw, some athleticism,

but then stuff where you're like, what was that? I like that. Some of the recklessness, yeah. That makes sense, yeah. When I watch them, just my big picture takeaway, we're in an arms race in the NFL right now. You got to try to fight fire with fire if you're going to beat those guys at the end of the road.

And if you're not taking those sorts of shots in the top five, you're doing yourself with this service. So even with some of the inconsistencies, even with some of the downsides, I'm going for the home run every single time with these dudes. And that's what he gives you. I mean, if you're trying to

engage in that Mahomes-level arms race or Josh Allen or whoever, this guy's going to give you a fighting shot if it works out. And that's the bet that I'm going to make every single time. Ryan Poles text you and say, Robert, which quarterback do we take at number one? What do you text them back?

Caleb, because I think that he's rare. I think that the awareness and the way that he navigates the game is rare. I don't think you can teach that sort of stuff. And you combine that with the high-level throws. There are four or five plays a game that Caleb makes that just make you shake your head and laugh. And you combine that with the down-to-down nuts and bolts, like actual strong foundation of who he is as a player. And I think that combination is just hard to beat in almost any given draft.

So I came in and I expected to like Drake May in the same way that Nate did and I do like him. But I really do think that Caleb Williams is a special talent in a way that we just don't see come along very often. That's kind of where I landed. I mean, because I love Drake May. It's just, yeah, Caleb at the end of the day, just give, there's just a little bit more. And it's just that football awareness. But yeah, both these guys, I mean, it's a no brain. It's a good year to have a top two pick, put it that way.

I'll say this again. I'll say this again. I've yet to give, I've only given since I've been media. I'm trying to, well, you asked me the other day, like, oh, how would you rate, like, your quarterbacks the last 10 years? And I've really been thinking on it for a week because I've been in four different grading systems as well. So, including my own that I've just made up in the last two years. Uh, so it's kind of one of those where it's like I'm trying to translate it all. But since I've been in quote unquote media, uh, for the last fourish years, there's been three purple chip guys, and which I consider better than blue chip guys, which means I take these guys top five in any draft, no matter what my situation is if I need a quarterback. These are guys. That's Trevor and these two. And it's just that I just think all of them, or including Trevor, but these two just have those MVP qualities. The Duke game, watch the Duke game with Drake May. That is a guy putting a team on his back and just with his arm, with his legs, with his mind,

with his toughness. Even games like NC State where they're down three scores after the end of first quarter, he's scrambling and carrying guys because he's like pissed off. That competitiveness showed up in the NC State game. He has a score, I think. it gets called back and he spins the ball and spikes it right in front of the ref. I think he got flagged. But I didn't know he had that in him.

And I was like, oh, you know, this is that intangible and competitiveness. That matters. You want your quarterback to be the most psycho competitive guy. And I think these two have it along with all the traits with it. So I just, I really, really like these guys both. Like it's just, I'm very excited to watch them in the league, no matter where they end up. I better be. Let's move on to the guy that many people, including both of you, have as the number three

quarterback in this draft. And that's Jane Daniels from LSU. Dana, I just want to spend some time tracing how we got here because Dayton Daniels was not the sort of prospect when the season began. So where was he for you before the 2023 season? And then how would you kind of attribute this rise and why we've arrived at this moment with him? Well, let's go back even further because I think Jane Daniels has been in our lives a long time. I mean, he was starting as a true freshman at Arizona State. He helped Brandon I. You become a first round pick. That's how long he's been there. He's been in college.

So, yeah, after that freshman year, it was kind of like, all right, this is a guy to watch. This is somebody. Then the COVID year happened. And then everything fell apart in that Arizona State program in 2021. So he transfers LSU for his fourth season last year, 2022. And he rebuilt his draft stock. He went from a guy that was looked at as a six-rounder to, okay, maybe third round. He has a chance to be a starter in the league.

And so if he came out after the 22 season, he would have been drafted on day two. So there are expectations for him coming into the year, but then he took this big jump. He took his game to another level. And yeah, so the natural question is, what's the main difference? We talk so much about surroundings for a quarterback and how important coaching is in terms of developing young players. He just didn't have that at Arizona State. But the last two years at LSU, he got consistent coaching.

He sure got it now. First time, he was in the same system back-to-back years. And so I think the maturity of being a fifth-year starter is a big factor here. There's no substitute for experience. And then you throw in, of course, the talent around him. Malik Neighbors, put it this way, he would have been the number one player in the draft last year in my rankings and the year before that. number one player. And that's how good he is. This year, he just happens to be number three,

because Caleb's in front of him and Marvin Harrison Jr. is in front of him, just for my own personal rankings. We'll have that war next week. Right. But then you have Brian Thomas, who's awesome. The other receivers are great. The offensive line was a top three offensive line in college football this year. Both those tackles might be drafted next year. Yeah, no doubt. And then the defense was tissue paper. So they had to score 50 points a game. So all these contributing factors, you know, is Daniel's a legit prospect? Absolutely. I think he's a very capable NFL starter. What's his true ceiling? That's where it gets a little more tricky. Okay, so let's get into that because he's being projected as potentially

the second overall pick, the third overall pick, maybe going ahead of Drake May. And I know you don't agree with that, Nate, but if you're trying to paint a case for why you can take him in the top 10 or why a team should take him in the top 10, where would you start? Jane Daniels wins with accuracy.

He wins with understanding concepts. I'll talk about Blamission, a little bit, but then he has game-breaking speed. And that is going to be tantalizing for a lot of coaches and a lot of evaluators. Here's this guy hitting a real thrill. 1, 2, 3, drop him back, hitting a guy on the outside

and on the next play, he's running by SEC defenses. That's an easy argument to make. I just, this guy, one of the Heisman, look at his production, look at his speed, look at his throwing ability from the pocket. All right, those check a lot of boxes. So even for me, I have him, you know, still like,

I have him a tear break after the top two guys, but it's not like I'm like, this guy's a third rounder. I can't believe he's going to be a top five pick. It's more just like I have him as a late first round grade that gets inflated a half round. Totally understandable. I've had plenty of guys graded that way or end up in the top 10. But that is what is so appealing about him, game breaking speed and accuracy from the pocket. And that's an easy sell if you're talking to a quarterback coach, office corridor, a head coach, a GM. Obviously, you're playing with those receivers. It's a really good situation. The amount of damage they did on slot fades this year, stuff like that, where I mean, just throwing the ball into space is

unbelievable. But when you're watching him, Dan, the touch is beautiful. I mean, he throws a feathery ball. He's accurate. He's a really impressive thrower of the football. And that's before you even get to what he can do with his legs and what he did with his legs consistently. Yeah, you know, my favorite part about doing a mock draft is all the reactions I get from people, especially in the league. And so when I did my first mock draft around Thanksgiving, I put Daniels in the top 10, I think prior to the Falcon somewhere. But that wasn't a thing yet.

And so I got a lot of responses. We're like, oh, wow. You know, like, you think he's going to go that high and this. And it's funny because a lot of teams have been kind of late comers to what Daniels can do. And again, it's because we already had a relationship with Daniels as a player. And I think that played a part. but in the situation, no doubt. But I think the more you watch him,

it's just more like, all right, like, well, that'll work. That's something that we could use. That's an injection of energy that are often doesn't have right now. And then the player that multiple scouts brought up was for Jane Daniels was Lamar Jackson. And it's not because it's an apples to apples comparison, but it's because defenses have to, when you're defending them, It's kind of, you have to defend them in a certain way because they can hurt you in different ways. With Daniels, he's such an electric athlete.

His dad was a corner. He wanted his son to be a corner. And you can kind of tell, by the way, his feet, his movements of his upbringing, playing cornerback and training to play corner, also has the body type of a corner. But that's different. I guess Bradley would love him. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, we got, we got, pro day was today. I think he was officially 210 pounds, which.

obviously that probably a little water inflated. He's going to be peeing like awesome powers. Right. But the number one thing with Daniels is, and this is something that I always go back to, the ability to create explosive plays. He accounted for 90 plays of 20 plus yards this year, and I don't think that's ever been done in a season in college football history. So he's tremendous downfield.

Like you said, there's, I don't know a quarterback that, like, slot fades more. But really on downfield throws in general, on throws of 20 plus yards this year, 67% completions, 22 to zero touchdown interception ratio. 67 is crazy. Yeah. Not only can he work down the field, but he's an electric athlete. And so you can understand why a team's looking at him and saying, okay, he just keeps growing

on us, growing on us to the point where they're going to be comfortable taking him in the top 10. And I think another factor here is he's known around the program at LSU as just one of the hardest workers that they've ever seen. So he sets the bar really, really high as, okay, and this is something that multiple teams have brought up with talking about Daniels. If he doesn't work out, it's not because he didn't work hard enough because he is that type of guy when it comes to the work ethic. This is going to maybe be a weird way to frame this, Nate. But you look at a guy who down the field accuracy, he's got a strong enough arm, he's accurate, and then the explosiveness as a runner.

And I think people taking those two traits together would think, man, that's a really high ceiling player. He's a great athlete and he's accurate. I actually don't think he has that high of a ceiling because those are the two things he does. There aren't a lot of off-schedule plays. There isn't a lot of moving and creating to throw. He's actually not a creative player

despite how gifted he is athletically. So I think untangling actually how high his ceiling is for how physically gifted he. is is going to end up being a huge part of this process for teams, or at least it should be in my mind. Yeah, the scrambling stuff. And really, when he gets, this is the difference between Daniels, even if he is faster than Caleb Williams and Drake May, is that when he's knocked off his spot, when he kind of gets off his first read, maybe even the second read, he moves in the pocket and breaks contain to run. I don't think I saw him move and throw a football in the four games that I watched.

Only reason eyes down, eyes down, eyes down, up. out gone. It's consistent. It's one after another. It's the same move every time. His pocket movement's decent. I actually, at least above average, I would say, his feel in the pocket and all that, his mechanics in there. His footwork is fine. He's in a throwing position a lot of times, but like Dan just said, his eyes come down. And that is a, that's, that's a way big difference between the two guys that we just talked about and Daniels. I would be way more comfortable with that if he was a Richard sophomore, Richard Jr., true junior, a guy that was 230 pounds. That is where the concerns come in for me,

is that his playing style, how he wins for a guy that started over 50 games, and this year, a very conducive offensive ecosystem, he still plays that way. I think it was if he gets knocked off his spot, he looks to scramble 45% of the time. If he gets out of the pocket,

he is scrambling almost half the time. That's an absurd number. Usually quarterbacks are in the 20s, it's basically double all that. And that tracks. I mean, those numbers line up with exactly what you're watching. I only looked into,

these numbers because I watched it on film. And it was just, and then I started diving into him more. And yeah, so the slightest amount of pressure, it causes his eyes to come down. Only 50.6% of his pressure dropbacks resulted in a pass attempt. So if he gets pressured, moved off his spot, only half the time he throws a ball. The other half the time, he's taking a sack of scrambling. That, it's hard to do that. All the other guys are two thirds of time, 70% of time.

It's just that is hard to translate into the NFL. And especially, yeah, he waited at 210 today. He's been listed at 190, 195 throughout his entire career. He looks like that as well. He's a hard gainer. He has narrow shoulders. I don't want to get into old body type stuff. This is why I was optimistic about Stroud last year.

He had large shoulders and big hands. I thought he would grow into his frame. So with Daniels, it's like, all right, you're maxed out. If you're sub 205, historically, there are not a lot of successful quarterbacks sub 205. We'll talk about another guy. At 23 years old and a program that has good nutrition program. You know, it's not like he came, he's coming from FCC or a small school. These are at LSU for two years.

and their strength program. So those are the concerns that I have and why, like you say, the ceiling isn't there because we just talked about these other guys having that feel, that spatial awareness. Daniel's in the weirdest way

almost feels robotic, even though he is such a good athlete. He's not a creative player. For however gifted he is, he's not a creative player. That's why the Lamar comparison, I've kept going like, I'm out on the Lamar comparison.

I get what Dan was saying is how they get defended, but as a runner couldn't be any more different as runners. The runner, and then also the pocket manipulation of movement, movement from Lamar is one of his superpowers.

And when you watch Daniel's play, that's just not an aspect to his game. So even if they're built similarly, I don't see it. To me, I think that he moves quicker than this. But you try it out Justin Fields as a Caleb Williams comparison day. And I think there's more Justin Fields to his game than other than Lamar Jackson to his game personally, because it is an all or nothing thing with the scrambling. And he's more robotic and less creative than you want an elite quarterback to be. That's what I see personally.

Oh, no, 100%. I think it would surprise some people if they hear us saying that he's not creative, not a creative player, but he's not as a runner, as a thrower. He's just not a creative player. That's not what his strengths are.

Now, I think that his processing has got a lot better, but he'll still, he'll leave some reads too quickly. And like you've been saying, he is definitely more likely to scramble instead of creating those second chance throws. And that's a,

that's tough to reconcile when you're projecting him forward. And when you consider all the pressure he's going to see in the end of NFL. The big one, though, for me in terms of what is going to be a roadblock for him is just the size and his willingness to take hits. I mean, every time he runs, it's like he wants to prove how tough he is. And it's just like that has to stop. He has to go, his whole mindset has to shift from this is how tough I am to just strict body preservation. And he's never going to survive if he doesn't. So yeah, no, I agree. I mean, he is, it's a really interesting quarterback that I don't, and we'll talk about comparisons here in a second, but it's, it's hard to find an apples to

apples one because he is so, so unique with what he offers. Dan, you have the number, oh, go ahead. I was going to say, yeah, my, my player conference has been giant Knoxville more than anything because it just, it just, it, honestly, it's, you love the toughness. You love it. Like, it's palpable. You're like, hell yeah. I don't want you get speared for like the fifth play in a row. It's like, oh, yeah, it's, yeah, that's, that, that's a big, big thing. So I wanted to ask you this, Dane, you have the number three pick. You're a L.A. Wolf.

Caleb Williams and Drake May are gone. You get a monstrous offer from somebody to trade up. And where you're at with your program and your organization, do you take that offer? Do you take Jane Daniels? So if I'm 82-year-old Robert Kraft, I'm probably going Daniels, uh, and saying, let's have fun. Let's see if this works out. It might not, but it'll probably be a roller coaster. But I'm not going through another offensive year like we had last year.

But if I'm 42-year-old Elliot Wolf, I'm definitely taking the hall and building the roster, maybe take a flyer on Spencer Rattler on day two and keeping my quarterback options open for next year. And even though next year's quarterback class is underwhelming, you know, we just, you know, we'll have to check with Dion and see if New England's on the acceptable list for Chador. next year. I'm already dreading the conversation. I am too, dude. It was already tiresome in the fall. We're still not, he's not even a prospect.

I know, I know. But so yeah, I can see why there's going to be two different perspectives in the building in New England, but I would lean more towards, yeah, I'm taking the hall and let's build up this roster. But we know the ownership usually wins out in those situations.

I feel the exact same way. I just think that again, if we're getting into the arms race conversation, what you're looking for in this range of the draft, those two guys are in a different conversation and in a different stratosphere than the players we're going to talk about for the rest of the show. And I'm going to say that the biggest negative I didn't even bring up with his game is, and this is why he translates more to good and bad to Russell Wilson, Jalen Hertz, Daniel Jones, and Justin Fields, Jane Danos does, doesn't throw over the middle. He just doesn't. And I know there's arguments that, well, he has two really good receivers.

That's why he threw the outside. Coaches are not going to call a concept that just goes outside of numbers. There's stuff that works over the middle. There's a lot of plays that this LSU offense that ran stuff over the middle, he would turn that down a lot. And that is a huge alarm bell for me, huge alarm bell because it doesn't get easier in the NFL and you have to do it. You just have to. We see what happens when you don't. That's what happened with the Eagles a little bit along with J.1.

J.1. Hertz not scrambling as much. So that only 9.3% of his dropbacks did he throw the intermediate parts over the middle? No, the only quarterback lower than that, that's been drafted. in the first two rounds since 2020 was Justin Fields at 8.1%. I think that's been a huge concern with Justin Fields. So there's a lot. There's comparisons with him in Fields, but Fields is 30 pounds heavier,

faster, I would say, actually, and has a bigger arm. So that's where some of the concerns come from me. What do you think the best case scenario is, Dave, for Jane Daniels? I struggled. I struggle coming up with a name that I love here. I mean, I get the Lamar Jackson just from the strict standpoint of you have to defend them a certain way because he can use his legs.

He can beat you over the top. But again, yeah, it's not an apples to apples comparison. I don't know. Nate, did you have a good one for this? No, I was trying to find. It's hard to find this archetype. Like, Rich Gannon? That's like it.

That's the only smaller runner with some accuracy and not an overwhelming arm. Like that's the only guy. Like, I really, I was grasped my straw trying to find a guy that worked. This is maybe a weird way to do this because, at what point does he no longer become this if you take away some of the qualities? To me, he feels like a skinnier, faster, less strong version of J.1.

Hertz. If you flipped J.1. Hertz's strength with speed, that to me is a lot of what Jaden Daniels brings to the table. A great comparison. That's those guys I just listed. They're all from the same, they're cut from the same cloth, even if they're all built differently.

But his play style is a lot like Jalen Hertz's. All right. So in a world where all three of those guys are gone, Drake, Makeha, Williams, Jaden, Daniels. It is very possible now that J.J. McCarthy could be a guy, the guy for a team like Minnesota or even Denver or the Raiders if they're looking to move up in the draft. And Dane, you've been trying to tell us this for a very long time with J.J. McCarthy that he was going to be more of a sought-after prospect than people on the outside might be anticipating. So what about J.J. McCarthy in his game do you think has made him somebody that might be worth drafting in a top five for one of these teams?

Yeah, and we're talking about him fourth, but wouldn't be a surprise if he was the third quarterback taken or who knows, maybe in the second. I don't know. We'll save that. But look, I'm a big-time guy. So I've watched. If he goes ahead of Drake May, I will lose my mind. Oh, God. I'll lose my mind.

Hopefully it's still a conversation up until draft night so we can have fun with it. I get the people that go like, hey, if he goes two, you're wrong. I'm like, it's like, I just don't, I don't have to agree with how they get slotted. But I mean, Michigan has been struggling to find that quarterback. Couldn't get over the hump against Ohio State. But then it's a 2022 game with JJ McCarthy. It was like, okay, this is a different guy. I was really blown away by the in-game control, the poise.

He has a B plus arm. The intangible factors off the charts. And so as I'm studying him this past summer, the only thing I really didn't love about him was the body of work. It was missing. And so, you know, we could argue that it's, still missing because he played in an offense at Michigan where they didn't ask him to be the driving force. And, you know, that'll bring up some some crazies that say, oh, they clearly

didn't trust him and blah, blah, blah. It's just silliness. But I think where, you know, when you watch his film, what you can really latch onto is he really shines on money downs. You know, when you, it was up to him to convert, to keep the drive going. Forty-eight percent of his pass attempts on third or fourth down resulted in a first down. So that's, that's, the best among the quarterbacks in this class. We saw it late in the Rose Bowl against Alabama. We saw it two years in a row against Ohio State. When they needed a play, he stepped up and made a play more times than not.

And it's funny because, and I remember telling this to Nate, wait till you see McCarthy, because I have a feeling you're going to like him because he reminds me of a Desmond Ritter with a much higher ceiling. Like Desmond Ritter is kind of who he was. J.J. McCarthy is Desmond Ritter, but he's going to get better and better as he gains experience and gets more coaching and all of that. So yeah, I'm definitely on the more optimistic side with him, but the body of work just isn't quite there. Nate, you've warmed up to McCarthy as you've studied him more in the process. Those are your words that you've warmed up

to him. And I think that seems to be a common experience for people that have studied him. So walk me through that process. Like how does he grow on you over time as you continue to watch him? The term danger to see is the body of work. It's you got to watch every game with J.J. McCrack. You don't get the cherry pick four or six games like he came with some quarterback. It's it's an eight game, 10 game process for this guy to get how many throws translates. Some guys I'm like, oh, they throw 40 the balls, only 12 to 14 translate. It's like with McCarthy, it's like he throws the ball 12 times and four translate. Okay, right.

That's another thing, though, I will say. It's a horrible offense, which a lot of NFL concepts, a lot of NFL asks as well. The Penn State game was a game where I warmed up to him and the fact that he only threw the ball, I think 12 times. But they were backed up. It was a sequence when they were backed up. And Harbaugh, we're going to see a little bit of this in the Chargers. I can't wait to crack some jokes on this this year. They can give some very wordy play calls with about three different play calls in the concept or in the actual, or three concepts in the play call.

There's McCarthy, Penn State fans, Happy Valley going nuts. He's backed up. He's walking up. And this is the intangible stuff that Dan's talking about. It's communicating to each offense alignment. This is a check. He signals to each guy. Snap, it, boom, hands it off.

Next play. Same exact thing. Handling, killing, killing, communicating with every single guy. Calm, looks at the play, cock, boom. When I talk about playing quarterback, that's what he does. He plays quarterback. He understands the pre-snap operation. He got asked to do a lot.

So then, like Dan said, they got asked, he doesn't throw the ball. Again, you don't get a lot of throws to work with. Most of them are on third down. Those are real throws. Those are overthrows. Those are digs. Those are stuff that he's going to get asked to do. do on the NFL level, those concepts changed for him every week.

It wasn't they just ran the same play over and over, stick, stick, stick, stick, stick. They ran different plays. They were really hyper-designed concepts. That's hard to do as a quarterback in college. And when I was in college, I saw Scott Zal can handle that. Russ was up and down. So, like, that's, and Russ is because they're actually pretty sharp quarterback. That's a lot on a college guy.

Scott Zeehan is an NFL quarterback's coach now. Yes, he coaches, yeah, for the Cowboys. And, yeah, I'm sure Dak puts him through the ringer. every single week. Actually, I should actually hit him up. But, no, but I, everything Dan said, it's also the, it's the opposite of Daniels, where Jay J.J. McCarthy will throw that thing over the middle. J.J. McCarthy is a really good thrower on the move. He, this is why original line that we've kind of had is the shanhan guys are going to really like this guy. And the more you watch them, you're like, yeah, that's

obvious. Throwing on the move on bootlegs or just escaping out of the pocket and throwing over the middle because he will anticipate he'll fire that thing in there he'll do it from a tight pocket he's got good pocket movement and it's not mechanical you can see some athleticism with it he's more fluid as an athlete than i maybe expected when i started watching him it's he's a like that's the thing with ritter ritter was a great straight line athlete he is not a creative thrower he is not a creative athlete's everything we talk about daniels McCarthy is a loose athlete he's a loose arm that catchy had on the alabama uh tape tells you all you need to know right there about him as athlete. So again, it's some of these guys, you watch two games and you're going to get 80, 90 plays where they're doing all this stuff. With him, it's 20 plays and two games. So it just takes more time, but it does wash over you. It does warm up to him. And I understand some of the praise for him. I don't see him as top five, but I do understand why some teams do like him. And really, like, it's not like I have to squint as much as I thought I would. B plus is great, Dan, because I think B plus applies to a lot of aspects to his game. I think his arm is a B plus. I think his athleticism is a B.

plus, he just feels like a B plus. And you talk about the Shanahan guys, Nate, I think there's going to be a lot of coaches in the NFL who look at J.J. McCarthy and their conclusion is, I can win with that. I can win with that. I can work with that. The question then becomes, where do you draft that? So if you're building a case stay for the Minnesota Vikings trading 1123 and more, potentially a 2025 first round pick to go up to four and get J.J. McCarthy, what does that argument look? like for you? I think it's just the foundational traits are there. I mean, it's physically, it's there, everything we've been talking about, but then also the mental side, everything that Nate just talked about. The mental side is there, and the ceiling should be even greater as he continues to grow. The toughness is off the charts. He grew up as a hockey player, and that really developed his toughness at a young age.

Sophomore in high school, he broke his thumb in his throwing hand the week before the state championship game. he doctors told him to shut it down, have surgery. No, he played through it. They won the title. He had surgery on Monday. So that kind of speaks to his toughness. And I know fans hate the whole win-loss record thing, but teams care about that.

So it's a relevant thing. And to go 36 and 2 in high school as a starter, 27 and 1 as a college starter, plus a national championship and do everything he did to kind of change the trajectory of Michigan, that counts a lot of bonus points in the minds of NFL teams. So you look at the strengths, the pocket athleticism, the mental makeup, those are the types of foundational traits that you're like, okay, that's just the floor? All right. Well, we can talk ourselves into the ceiling and what's that going to be. So at the end of the day, it'll be really interesting to see where he actually ends up. Is it at a four? Is it at six?

Could he maybe we're just, we're talking ourselves into it and he'll actually go 10. I mean, who knows ultimately? We'll find out here in less than a month. but it'll be really interesting these conversations within NFL walls as they come up with a, because if you're willing to take him at 10, then you're willing to take him at 4, but it's what you have to use as trade capital to go get him. That's the pill that's a little tough to swallow. But again, at the same time, if you believe he can be a high-end starter, not even a high-end starter,

if you believe he can be a starter that's going to help you win games, win a division, make a playoff push, then I can understand why a team feels, like it'd be worth that investment. I love the Vikings aspect of this because, again, it feels like kind of a controlled experiment. And I'm not saying he is Kirk Cousins, but if you can get Kirk Cousins type play where it's just outside of the top 10, top 12ish quarterback play, but you're paying him on a rookie quarterback contract, that becomes the gap.

That's how you can talk yourself into a low ceiling guy in the top 10 if you think the floor is high enough where if I can build a super team around him, then. I can win with this guy. And Nate, it feels like that might be the story that an NFL team has to tell itself if they're going to move up and take him. Yeah, especially Minnesota. They make, even you mentioned cousins and everything. But that's the whole word you take him is I have talked myself originally into,

oh yeah, Vikings at 11. Yeah, half grade inflation, you know, half round inflation. Okay, I get that. It's a little rich, but I get that. When we're talking about moving up, like Dane said, that's where I get a little hesitant. I do think the athletic of the stuff there. He has some of the same size concerns that I have with Daniels. He would have McCarthy weighed at 218, 219 at the Combine with a little pudgy face,

a little bloated face there. You know, but it's, but that's, I do have concerns with the weight stuff because it's when you pull out, it's more not even just durability. It's just work in the pocket. It's so hard. I have PTSD from watching when I was with Derek Carr. I really do because it's just how easily he would get pulled down. And that's why it always sticks with me.

Even guys like Cousins, cousins, as tough as all get out, but he is one of the few successful quarterbacks we've seen in recent memory that were truly sub 205. We don't know what McCarthy actually will weigh in, but say it's around that weight. It's like him and Jeff Garcia since the year 2000.

That's about it. It's not a archetype that usually we see success in. So that's where if you're taking a guy top 10, like sizes and durability is the number one thing I'm looking at. That's why I had huge reservations about Bryce Young last year. It's like, yeah, I understand the 20s, but top 10, that's. that's scary for me. McCarthy, I kind of get into the same stuff. It's, you're projecting a lot here, even if the glimpses are good, even if the intangibles are good, there is a lot that you have to project because you just don't know if he can handle more of the workload or if there is stuff to touch in on. Has he been maxed out coaching wise? He's been working with Harbaugh for three years. So is that like, oh, is there even more room to grow? I think there is. Like I'm just saying this is kind of the glass half empty stuff. But he's young. He doesn't take a lot of negative place. He shows a good understanding for that.

and he has athleticism. I understand some of the guys that want to bet on that, even if I just don't think it, I think top 10's a little rich. My experience with him, I remember watching, I think it was the Ohio State game live,

and they were talking about him as this kind of high-end recruit and like the guy that could kind of take the quarterback position of Michigan in a new direction. And when I saw him physically, I was like,

him? That guy? This is the guy? And so he's not overwhelming. Like, he is more slight than you want a high-end quarterback to be, and that was my initial response to him. But then again, as you keep watching him, there are throws that you can talk yourself into. The overrouts are like he

throws those beautifully and on time, the touch he puts on them. And then he'll rip that thing up the scene, man. He will absolutely rip it. And that's just one of those moments where even if he is a better athlete that Cousins is, if you can point him in the right direction, he's willing to let it go. That's the argument for him. That's how you can get there with a quarterback like this. that may be a lower ceiling, somewhat higher floor type of guy. That was even Cousins' thing at Michigan State was he wouldn't have a high quantity of throws there.

I'm trying to remember of Levion Bell was there at the time, but they were pound on the rock. It was a very pro-style system. It was that he would, hey, they're throwing a seam. He's going to rip that bad boy in there. And I think that's why he ended up being a Shanahan guy in the fourth round. Same draft as the RG3 draft.

Like, when it comes, I haven't gotten there all the way, but their grades have gotten closer and closer as this process has gone along. Daniels and McCarthy, I mean. is I prefer McCarthy's playstyle over Daniels. It's just my preference for quarterback play. That's why McCarthy grew on me and why Daniels is kind of slowed down for me.

Is that play style, I feel, translates more. And you've got youth on the side of athleticism. So that's why I see those guys getting closer and closer compared to May and Williams, who I think are just easy top five. So that's my personal thing, but I just prefer this play style. I see this place style translating a little cleaner. What do we think the best case scenario for JJ McCarthy in the NFL looks like, Dan.

A more athletic Jared Goff, maybe. You know, like a guy that or, you know, he's not going to, you know, what you just said, Robert, was perfect. You have to kind of lead him in the right direction. And I think that makes a lot of sense with JJ because that's, you watch the way they ran the offense,

especially with some of those, you know, third down throws. A lot of it's schemed open. A lot of receivers are getting open because of the way they set up the the concept. And so I do think that you have to hold his hand a little bit, at least initially, but he can get there. And so if he is a ceiling, yeah, maybe a Jared Gough level player, that's not necessarily a bad thing. And what did we see the Rams do? The Rams built a Super Bowl, NFC winning, NFC champion winning team around Jared Gough after giving up a shitload of draft picks to go up and get Jared Gough. Because the ways that you can wield that contract with a capable quarterback,

We have seen that workout for teams. And I think that is going to be the path that teams are looking to take if one of these teams ends up moving off for it, whether it be Minnesota or somebody else. Nate, what do you think the best case for J.J. McCarthy is an NFL quarterback. Yeah, like Supercharged golf is a pretty good one. I, the guy, he plays a lot like Kirk Cousins. Like, that's what I see. It's kind of funny that the Vikings are the team that, like, has kind of my ID. Like, that's just a happenstance for this comparison.

But as far as size, even throwing style a little bit. But it's just everything about him, how he moves a little bit. He's a better athlete than Kirk. He's more apt to create, more creative, I think, than Kirk was or is. But I think that's where I could see his upside being just a little hypercharged Kirk Cousins, which can be a pretty damn good quarterback. If you get to that, that's, that's, but that is, this gets into the star starter bench bust thresholds.

It's like, you know, his star thing is smaller than those top two guys, but still, still there. There's just a little bit there that can get to that point. Dan, what does the worst case scenario look like for you with Jason McCarthy? Daniel Jones, maybe. And that's not even, I guess that's maybe not worst case, but maybe realistic worst case.

Because with Daniel Jones, it just seems like NFL speed is too much for him at times. But he has just enough where he's going to keep things interesting. And with JJ, he is an athlete. He does have the arm, you know, like the B plus. A lot of it's B plus. and does he have the little bit extra to get his team across the finish line Daniel Jones doesn't really have that

and with against NFL speed J.J. McCarthy might not be able to just have enough to get his team across the finish line. So I'm going with Daniel Jones here. I love this because if it's supercharged her cousins and the Vikings take him that becomes interesting and if it's Diet Daniel Jones and the Giants take him that becomes interesting.

That's six overall. So you have two fan six overall again. So you have you have two fan bases that I think have the potential to lose their minds because of this conversation, which I always enjoy. Before we get to the second and third tier, guys, Nate, what is your worst case scenario for a JJ McCarthy? Trubisky. And that's only because of one thing. He struggles throwing left. And it's a, it's a thing.

He struggles pushing the ball left. And I looked at it started with eye tests. I'm like, huh, he never scrambles left, which is something J.on Hertz doesn't do. as well does not he never scrambles left he's all he's zoolander at quarterback but he throwing left when he pushes the ball 10 yards or more so like those corner routes you know whole shots anything like that he struggles his completion percentage drops from 56% on those throws to the right to 42% on the left his qb efficiency cubby rating goes from 205.2 or 0.4 to the right to 1.44 to the left why do you think this is um he overstriads he is a mechanical issue

on it, which is weird. Like Dan said, he has a B plus arm. His MPH at the at the combine was pretty dang good. And he has some zip on it. But he feels he'll be a hair late. He has to see it a little bit on the outside. He'll overstride, which makes him late. And when you overstried, that causes balls to go everywhere.

That's what Josh Allen cleaned up more than anything. He overstrowed and then he shortened his stride length. But that, that's just what, that's what I see as a kind of my quarterback background. But then the last thing is success rate goes from 56% to the right to 42%. to the left. So it's a real thing. And that's something that he just has to clean up. So that's where the Chubisky thing's kind of a bit. But that's kind of like

where I see maybe something down. I appreciate you doing that to me. It's been an emotional roller coaster with me hearing all the great things about Caleb Williams, then having to be reminded about Mitchell Chubisky as part of this process. So I thank you for that. Former Bears quarterbacks. Let's see if I get Cade McCallon in there. He reminds me a Rex Grossman.

Let's get to the second and third tier guys here. I'm only going to ask three simple questions about these players. And I was going to do Michael Panics, Bo Nix, and maybe Spencer Rattler. Is there anybody else that you want to throw in there, Dane, or you would throw in there? No, that's fine. I mean, I like Michael Pratt from Tulane, but yeah, let's focus on these three guys. So let's start with Michael Panics. Question one. Dane, why will Michael Pennix be a functional starter in the NFL? Or why would he be a functional starter in the NFL if drafted by the right team, let's say? I think it's two things. First, mental toughness. What he's had to overcome to this point is he deserves a lot of credit.

The injuries in Indiana and then nobody wanted him basically. He had one power five offer after he transferred from Indiana and that was Washington. And obviously he had a connection with the coaching staff. So that played a big part. So everything he's had to overcome to this point, adversity is he's willing to take that head on. The second thing is just his willingness, it's basically arm confidence. His willingness to attack every square inch of the field and give his receiver is a chance to go make plays, even though it might not always work out, he has that arm confidence. And if he does work out in the NFL, arm confidence will be a big reason why.

Nate, how about you? Why would Michael Pennix be a quality or a functional starter in the NFL? Yeah, that's an aggression, Dane just said, arm confidence. He's willing to push it. He has a decent understanding of when he can push it. Sometimes it's just kind of like, you know, it's pretty easy when you're thrown out of those guys. But it's, but that's what it is.

understanding of that. He doesn't take a lot of sacks. He kind of knows what he is, but that's also the negative of him as well. But there is a strength to that. There is a positive to that to knowing when to push, when not to push. And I think he has that. And I think if he gets into the right little spot, he could have some success doing that. Why wouldn't Michael Panics be a functional NFL starter day? It's just too inconsistent in too many areas. Yeah. I mean, mechanics, anticipation, pressure reaction. It's when everything's not on time and clean, it's just, he it falls apart for him. And I think because things played out the way they did in certain games,

like the Oregon game, the first Oregon game this year, that touchdown to Roma Dunzee late in the fourth quarter, the safety just looks. It's an interception game's over Oregon wins. And I understand like you could nitpick all, every single throw these guys make. But I think there's more on Penn Ex's tape that, I don't know if that's going to work, or that's not going to fly at the next level. So there's just too many inconsistencies to his game that I think are going to be roadblocks to him finding just consistent success. Nate, where would you go? Why wouldn't Michael Panics be successful as NFL starter?

Quarterbacks don't really win this way anymore. This is a, if he was 20 years ago, he'd be a much more ideal quarterback for the play now. He's just not a creative player. Even Dan, I'm talking about, you know, kind of the post-snap stuff. He doesn't adapt well. He doesn't adapt well to a pocket. He doesn't adapt well to maybe a covered guy. doesn't adapt well to

anything that's funky that he doesn't anticipate before the snap. We saw a ton in the college football playoff. Guess what type of defense Michigan runs?

He'll see that every single week in the NFL. I mean, it's now the defense de jour in NFL football. Five teams will run that system this year.

All the time. And simulates, all that stuff. And he was all over the place. Talking about going coast to coast. That was him

the entire game. And that's not because of scheme. That was him short-circuiting. And again, this guy was a red shirt sophomore.

more easier to gloss over. This guy's got a lot of playing time, a lot of starts. It was an awesome offensive ecosystem. Dane just brought up the one where the safety looks against Oregon against Texas. A play that's been highlighted, he hits a touchdown on a post route. That safety in the NFL is picking that off the backside safety because he takes an extra hitch and he needs such a big platform. I compared him to Byron Leftwich a little bit.

He needs a lot of room to operate. And I just, that's hard. That's really, really hard. You have to be in a right kind of situation for that to work. Where would you feel comfortable taking Michael Pennekstein? And is there a team that makes sense in that range? I have mocked him to the Raiders in the second round. Who knows?

The Raiders might take him in the first round. But I think that for a team that needs to do something at quarterback, even if they're going to stick with Aiden O'Connor to start with, add some type of life to that quarterback room, the Raiders make sense to me. But again, do they feel like they can wait to the second round to take him? I think all three of these quarterbacks we're talking about are day two guys. me. But quarterback desperation might push them up a little bit. But yeah, the Raiders stick out as one of those teams. How about you, Nate? Where would you feel comfortable taking Paddicks? And is there a team

that you think makes sense in a given range? Truly comfortable, round three. But like Dane said, there's a lot of inflation with quarterbacks. It only takes one. So probably round two is probably where maybe he'll end up. Bucks might not be a terrible one just based on their football or who they have, you know, Baker and all that kind of stuff. It has to be a spot, I think, where it's almost like the Hennon Hooker last year where they have an established starter. He's older, too. That's another thing with Pennix. So it's like,

all right, what are we typing? And injury history, too. We haven't even mentioned that. Yes. So it's, it has to be a right situation and maybe not one where it's like, oh,

we're really going to grow this guy. So it's hard for me to find like that perfect kind of spot for him. But yeah, Bucks, and I think what Dane just brought up is another good one, too, with Raiders. Let's go to Bo Nix,

another guy who's played college football for 40 years and was in the PAC 12 last year. Why will Bo Nix or why would Bo Nix be a functional NFL starter in your mind, Dan. Because he knows where to go with the football. I think he understands, okay, this is what the defense is giving me. All right, I need to go here. That and his scrambling can really give some defenses problems.

So smart guy, high floor type of player. That's what I see with Bownecks. I see a low ceiling as well, but I do see a high floor with what he brings. How about you, Nate? Yeah, I'm right there with Dane. I see a lot of Heineke here. that in a good way. I mean that I think of him as a high, high end backup because of what Dane said, or a spot starter that maybe we can start out of this is because he has plenty of arm

talent. He's got a good arm, a good zip, plenty of athleticism. So if you wear a spot starter type, it's like, hey, run around, make some plays because he can be smart, run an offense. He's gotten away from the recklessness, but he does have that creativity in his game. I'll call creativity because I'm being positive here. He does have some creativity to his game, which I like. He's not a total mechanical, robotic player. He actually plays some football. And again, the NFL, if the role that I picture him in, I really like

that because he can go win you a game or start for you for a couple weeks. So that, again, that's where I see him as that spot star high-end guy. What? It's supposed to be positive. And you're just taking dings at him every 10 seconds. It's like, if he had to win you a game, I think that he could probably do it.

I remember my main negative. Yeah, I'm waiting on it. Why wouldn't Bo Nixby a functional NFL starter, Dan. That's kind of my main negative is he plays way too loose. His eyes, his mechanics, things fall apart way too quickly. I mean, yeah, there are times where it works out for him. And it's like, yeah, go make a play, young man. But for the most part, it falls apart way too much compared to the positives that might come from it.

So I just, it's not going to fly in the NFL. So you don't have a high ceiling as a player and you're volatile enough to have a low floor. That seems like a tough combination. If you were trying to talk yourself into a guy as a starting quarterback. And he doesn't throw over the middle. I don't get it. He doesn't push the ball. So it's like, yeah, there's some Heiniki.

That's, I just, these run around guys, that's, that's why I throw him at. It's just you're a Heinekee. You're a Heineke plus sometimes, but he might be a Heineke plus because he's a little bigger, maybe a little faster. So that's what I'm going with. Where would you feel comfortable taking him, Dave? Same type of range where it's probably a late two, but you got to take him a little bit earlier. You know, you think if the Patriots do trade back, take an offer or take the trade from the Vikings

and trade back, Knicks would be a possibility for them early on day two as a guy that can come in and, you know, maybe you try them out, see if you have something with Jacoby Brissette. But I don't know. I don't have high hope. All three of these guys, I look at it like this. If you're going to draft in top 25, that means you better have conviction that they're going to be a top 15 quarterback. at some point during their rookie contract.

And I find it very, very hard to think any of these three guys are going to develop to the point where they're looked at as top 15 overall quarterbacks in the NFL. So I just, I don't know how you can justify taking them in the first round when you don't think that they are that type of player. Where do you sit, Nate? Where would you feel comfortable taking Bonex? Yeah, I'm right through late, second, early third is where I haven't graded.

Might get that half round inflation. I mean, and you'd rather. have him than Penix. You're lower on Penix than you're on Knicks. I would. Because just because the run around, just because of the runaround stuff, really, I think he's a better athlete and he can create more than Pennix can, which I think matters so much for these guys. I want to be clear about this. Pennings can't create at all. He does not move and he does not scramble. Like the, if you look at the scramble numbers, it's actually hilarious, just how little he ever did it. Yeah, it's very, very, very low. It's like, oh, he doesn't take sacks. It's like, yeah, he gets up for the ball. Like, he

he's the opposite of Daniels. It's hilarious. So that range, like Dan said, it's kind of hard to kind of pinpoint an exact spot. Like the bills actually might not be a bad one, but I think they're going to be filling up other spots way before that. But that's where I think he's best at.

It's like, we got an awesome quarterback that we like. He might get hurt once or twice. So we just got to have a kind of a high end guy that gets through a game. That's like, I think, his best landing spot as opposed to like the Broncos, where it's like, oh, this guy's going to start for us right away. It's like, yeah, I don't like that.

for him. I don't think that's the best situation for him to succeed. Let's get you Spencer Rattler, who feels like he's made a little bit of a comeback as part of this process. Maybe just people are bored or maybe his tape is actually better than people anticipated, but that's a name I've been hearing a lot more on the football internet than I anticipated hearing

here at the end of March. Why would Spencer Rattler be a functional starter in the NFL day? Arm talent. He has it. There's no doubt about that. Armed talent and self-confidence. That and he's already accustomed to playing behind a bad offensive line. So one of my favorite stats from this draft cycle is South Carolina

offensive line had a different front five combination, 10 of 12 games in 2023. Hard to win games that way. And so he's accustomed to seeing pressure. But yeah, the arm confident or the arm talent is what I keep coming back to that. And just the confidence he has and his abilities. That's something that can take him pretty far. Nate, how about you? You feel the same way about Rattler?

Oh, yeah. Armed talent, feel in the pocket. He truly throws guys open, even when they're covered, which he had to do a lot at South Carolina and doing it from tight pockets. His stuff, when we talk about translatable film, his stuff translates because it's like, yeah, that's what you have to do. You're going to get smacked in the face as your arm's getting hit and have to throw an over route. Like, that's what you do. And he had to do it all the time. Yeah, so I kind of was trying to keep him under wraps until we're kind of doing this show.

So I, yeah, but I had him as my, he'd be fifth. So best of the rest outside those first four guys we talked about. I have him at fifth at this point because of the arm talent. There's plenty of alarm bells. He's not an overwhelming athlete and everything. But feel in the pocket, truly playing quarterback, truly throwing guys open and truly like making your guys better. That's what he does. Why won't or why wouldn't he be a functional NFL starter day?

Spencer Rattler. Staying away from any of the off-field stuff. And we just don't know enough about that. But I think he's a very methodical player. I just don't see enough urgency in answering what the defense throws at him. And I think that's just going to be a larger hurdle in the NFL when everything's just a lot faster. And you're going to see a lot of different ways that defenses can attack you. So can he speed up his process enough, show a little bit more urgency to provide the answers needed to ace the test?

I just, I'm not sure he can get there. I bet you, Nate. Why wouldn't Spencer Rattler be a functional NFL quarterback? He's not a great athlete. He's, I would say, even a below average athlete. It's God, Derek Klasson, so good at this. he goes, it's the Baker Mayfield problem where he's going to try and do stuff, but he can't pull away from guys. And it's like, ah, you know, that, that's it. It's like he doesn't, he's not big.

He has the same size concerns. I brought up with the other guys. He's not, those are, he has more of those physical concerns that that will keep me from giving him a high grade, even if I love his arm town, even if I love all that, can't, you only can go so high with that type of profile. So that, that's why it's a negative. So it's like I, again, he's a guy. But of all these three, he's the guy that I'm like, hey, I think we have a starter or an old guy, maybe want to give this guy a shot throw, like a dart throw. So where would you feel comfortable trying to take that swing? Early, he's the one that I understand taking in the early second. I wouldn't be comfortable in the first round, but if someone takes him in the 30s, he is the one of these three that we talked about.

I understand taking that kind of swing if we're going to not take a guy in the first round or if we want to go into a bridge situation. I have him the same grade though as Nixon, or same slotted tier, late second, early third. So it's not like that much different. How about you, Dan? Where would you take a shot? I mean, I'm a little bit lower. I think all three of these guys are in the same bucket. But if I had to stack the bucket, it would be Knicks, Pennix, and then Rattler third. But I think they were all grouped pretty close together. We're talking, yeah, late two, early three.

But again, yeah, if they end up going somewhere top 40, I don't think it'd be a huge shock. All right. That's all we got. Six hours later is part of the running time of Dune 2. But that's okay because this is one of my favorite shows of the year. I absolutely wanted to let those conversations breathe. I've been looking forward to this. I hope other people were as well. So really, really hope you guys enjoyed the show.

Sincerely appreciate you listening. We will be back tomorrow with Mina Kimes. Mina and I went deep on the current state of the wide receiver market in the NFL. Where are the inflection points? Which guys should you pay? Is the supply outpacing the demand? What are we paying these guys? Why are we paying that to them?

So please go check that out. sincerely appreciate that. For now, though, that is all we've got here on the Athletic Football Show. We'll talk to you next week. This was the Athletic Football Show.