The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Browns trade Baker Mayfield to Panthers

Episode Date: July 6, 2022

Robert Mays and Nate Tice react to the Panthers trade for Baker Mayfield. They discuss the terms of the deal with the Browns, Carolina’s QB room and the big picture questions the team still faces. They also talk about the 2018 draft, the QB trade market and what all of this means for Jimmy Garoppolo. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome. The athletic football show. It's Wednesday, July 6th. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today. It's my good friend Nate Tyson. How you doing, buddy?

What a day? I don't think there's any better day to revisit the 2018 NFL draft, is there? We're going to do a little bit of that today. We're going to do a little bit of everything as it relates to the Baker-Mayfield trade. We had an idea we're going to roll out for tomorrow's show on Thursday. We're going to push that back to Friday, and we're going to be giving you guys this as soon as We are done recording it because when you have news in July, got to take advantage of it. Why not?

Why not? Camp hasn't started, man. We're a few weeks from training camp and the Cleveland Browns have dealt Baker-Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers for a conditional fifth round pick. All the reporting says the Browns are going to eat about $10 million at Baker's $18 million salary. The Panthers will take about $5 million of that on. Baker, I think, negotiated a new version of his deal where he took about a $3.5 million pay cut to make this all happen. Nate, what is your first reaction? What was your first reaction when you saw this? About time. I think that's really it. I think it was inevitable as everyone was, I think everybody was in

unison with this kind of figuring out who, I mean, there's really, it's like Baker and Jimmy G. Right. But like, there's only only a couple teams like that have, you know, empty seats, as you put it, at the quarterback table. There's only a couple ones that are maybe half filled or not filled completely, depending how, you know, how much room Drew Locke takes in your de facto seat. But, but yeah, so it was, it was seemed inevitable, but it was just, it was always just like when, as opposed to if it would happen. And it just made sense that the Panthers would go after them, even if they have made what seems like 20 quarterback moves in the past couple of years. So that's my only thing here. Okay. I can understand why the Panthers would do this.

Let me start by saying this. In a vacuum, trading a conditional fifth round pick for five million dollars of Baker Mayfield in a economy where Carson Wentz and his $28 million salary go for two third round picks is an objectively good football decision when your quarterback room is Sam Darnold and a third round rookie. The Panthers are a better football team and this is a good value choice by Carolina in doing this. But you can't just take it on its own. You have to take it with all of the other moves that they've made over the last two years. I tweeted out all of the headlines from the last 28 months.

so they signed Teddy Bridgewater to that deal. They instantly decide after one year. It's like, yeah, you know what? We're all set with this. So $17 million in Dead Cat for Bridgewater that last season, they trade a second and a fourth round pick for Sam Darnold. They instantly pick up his fifth year option. They have the worst offense in the NFL,

and Sam Darnold was the least efficient quarterback in the NFL again. Offense coordinator got fired too. Offense coordinator got fired in middle of the season. Sam Donald was on the hook for $18 million this year. in the middle of last season, they gave Cam Newton $5 million to play for half the year. And then they weren't done. This year's draft,

instead of just picking up Baker Mayfield for $8 million or $10 million or whatever they had to pay, the reports seem to say and seem to indicate that the Browns are willing to eat half around the draft. Okay? So the Panthers didn't want to do that. It was $5 million was their number. So because they understood they had to do something at quarterback,

after Ritter and Malik Willis went off the board in the third round, they traded their 2022 third round pick to move back up into the third round and take Matt Corral. Where is he in all of this now? Hang in. Hang in. Yeah, you can't put them on practice squad either because someone else probably swoop them up too. It's, it's, yeah, that's, that's kind of tricky. So you might be carrying three quarterbacks on a roster that needs as many bullets as they can have.

Actually, actually, we'll get to it. but I actually like the Panthers roster maybe a little bit better than maybe I initially thought going into this. But yeah, we'll save that. And that's fine. And we can get into their outlook and what they may look like this season, all of that stuff. To me, it's just, it's hilarious. They established precedent. If there's one team that was going to make a move for a quarterback, it was like, it's an easy bet to bet the Panthers.

Before we get more into the quarterback thing, I also want to point out, they traded the 70th pick in this year's draft for CJ Henderson in the middle of last season. Oh, that's right. Just a lot of, a lot of where did that pick go? with the Panthers recently. A lot of it went to quarterbacks, but it doesn't have to be a quarterback. And they threw in a tight end with that deal, too. Yeah, Dan Aronto is also there.

Sure. Now you have this quarterback room that consists of Sam Darnold, Baker, Mayfield, and Matt Corral. I would love for a camera to be in that room at all times and see how that's going. The dynamics of that group are absolutely hilarious. You imagine it's Baker and Sam Darnold or the Paul Rudd meme. Like, not me, man.

I mean, really, that's what it's going to be like, probably first day for them. And multiple people, Peter Schroger, Mike Garofolo, both saying, Darnold could still be the starter. That this is not Baker Mayfield's job to lose, which, sure. Yeah. Yeah, right. Why not? Okay.

They could say whatever. Sam Darnold, in his time in the NFL, since 2018, so 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, five years. Among the quarterbacks with a thousand snaps, 33. of them. Sam Donald is dead last in EPA per play. He's the only quarterback with a negative EPA per play over that entire span. The only one, Baker Mayfield is 24th. Not tons better, but pretty, but better, a step up for sure. And when you think about the heights that Baker Mayfield has had and just when the moments he's had are so much better than the moment Sam Donald has had, if you're the Browns for this season, having,

Baker Mayfield as your starting quarterback along with the improvements you made along the offensive line, going to get Iki-Equanoo in the first round, signing Austin Corbett, signing Bradley Bozeman, you still have a really nice collection of skill position talent. Questions about the play caller, maybe. But this is a decent setup for a decent quarterback. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Baker Mayfield was the starting quarterback for the Panthers from week one and they stayed relatively healthy if they finished 18th in our offensive dev oa 16th if things break right for them but then what yeah that that's that's my question at

the end of all of this if we play out the string all the way okay and baker mayfield is decent for them and they're a borderline playoff team because the rest of their roster is fine you know they have some pieces their defense was pretty good last year let's say they they stumble into the playoffs maybe or they're one two wins away baker's pretty good for them and he hits free agency Now what happens? Yeah. Now what do you do? Now are we paying of a bunch?

Are we going with this? They're $30 million over the projected cap next year. Really? Yes. They've extended Moten. They've extended Christian McCaffrey. They extended DJ Moore. They restructured McCaffrey and Shaq Thompson's deal this year in order to give them

some more cap space to push it off into further years. So for a regime that desperately needed to save its jobs this year, I understand how this is a positive move for them. He is a better quarterback. They will be a better team most likely with Baker Mayfield than they would have been with Sam Darnold. But where does that leave you? And that's the question.

Maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe they're not thinking that far down the road. They're better right now than they were this morning. But that to me is what I come away from this thinking is, all right, now what? Like even if this makes you better, how does this ultimately play out if you're Carolina? And if it plays out with those guys keeping their jobs, maybe that's enough for them. Yeah, sometimes it's just, I mean, it's fairly obvious, but kind of seems like they're spinning plates a little bit. Just like, hey, like, we got this going. We got this going. We got this going.

And I'm trying to think more of the fit because I, I think Baker's going to beat out Darnold. We have seen the highs of Baker. Like, Donald has always been the flash plays. Like, that's why he suckered me in was like, oh, shit, look at the highs of this. And then Baker- That's the part about this, though, is that they clearly are talking themselves into that again. Yes. Yes. And then that's what they, oh, I know, right? Especially they're watching those first three games. They're like, hey, when everything was going great. But Baker, at least, I've seen stretches, especially before his footwork went to shit,

was he actually would have drives, quarters, halves, games where he would be a good quarterback, where you said, Baker Mayfield helped them win that game or carry them drives at a time when it wasn't just the Browns run game and the play action stuff that they do now, but more of Baker sitting back there usually throwing outside because he likes to throw it to the outside. but usually doing that and moving the ball, creating these explosive plays with enough scrambling and creation, always to his right. But it was kind of like the book kind of got out on him.

And, you know, of course, people want to say some of the injury stuff, top of the injury stuff. Mechanically, he fell apart last year. And it happens. He was a mess at the end of the last season. Yep, an absolute mess. More than most quarterbacks, most athletes are built on confidence. And Baker is like, I mean, that's like his thing.

That's his calling card, which is great. When things are good, it's great. But when things are bad, it can be a little. rough when you have nothing else to lay on. It's like, you can't just run like a four or five and run away from guys like some other guys can do when they're maybe not hitting some throws. But I kind of like some of the synergy that he might have with like I like with DJ Moore. I actually think their skill sets, Baker and DJ Moore actually will fit really nicely. DJ Moore had his kind of lesser year, still statistically, but more advanced stats as far as kind of like down the field throws.

His worst year was last year with Darnold because Darnold wasn't pushing the ball. Darnold is throwing choice to CMC over and over and over. And CMC is still dynamic. He just keeps getting banged up. That's what happens with touches. But I think with a guy like Baker who's willing to push the ball, he's best on outside and throws outside the hashes and deep. Like that's his best thing. I've kind of compared him to Russ without the athleticism. Makes sense to maybe have a guy like DJ Moore who's a great ball tracker, a down-the-field threat, who's best with a guy like Cam, who attacks the field the same way kind of as Baker.

You know, Cam's a little better, but just does that make sense kind of like when you picture how they throw? They're down-the-field throwers. So you get DJ Moore with him. And that's, I think that's nice. We'll see with your guy, I know he's on all your dynasty teams with Terrace Marshall. I traded him last year. I did you. As part of some panic moves near the end of the season when I was trying to win a championship.

That was the Stafford trade too, right? Stafford trade, yes. But he's a big target. So we'll see if he grows. And that's another guy that maybe sinks with Baker a little bit. Baker's not great throwing underneath. Again, like Russ. So maybe McCaffrey gets hit a little bit in a receiving game and how they use him.

So that's maybe a guy that's going to get bumped. The O-L-Line's a little bit better, but we've seen Baker get panicked feet with a very good Browns-O-Line. Now, imagine if this Panthers O-Line, yes, their day one left tackle last year is a backup for him now. Cameron. He was their day-one left tackle. He's not even on the field for them, and he's still on their roster. So they have improved. Browns-O-line is pretty badass.

So if we go from the Browns-O-line, you know, got banged up at times. But if we go to this Panthers-O-line that maybe gets one injury, which is going to happen usually to O-lines, do we see some of the bad Baker come up. So there are some stuff that I'm like talking myself into that I'm like, okay, I actually like that. But there's still the usual concerns with Baker and the Panthers organization as a whole. I don't disagree with you at all. Yeah. All of that.

I think Baker is a decent quarterback. It's fine. People in Cleveland, you could give them a lot of chances over the last year or so to shit on him, even on the way out the door. And they didn't do it. They did not do it. They were ready, I think, and the Watson thing is an entirely different conversation. But if they had Baker Mayfield at $18 million, it wasn't a, we got to get rid of this guy. That was not the mindset.

Baker Mayfield at $18 million is palatable for what you need out of your quarterback. For $5 million? Absolutely. That's great. Even $23 million combined for Sam Donald and Baker Mayfield is totally acceptable when you consider the landscape of the position and what guys are getting paid. I think that even you say it's 23 for Baker this year and we just lump those together and what you're going to get out of Baker Mayfield, you can live with that. To me, this is about what are you trying to accomplish? When you're scrambling, where are you scrambling to?

Yeah. And it's a reminder. What's your path? What's your path? Where is that path end? Yeah. It's a reminder that NFL teams are not always competing for the same thing. As you have some of these teams that are true.

contenders where that's the finishing moves are let's win a Super Bowl. This is the Browns or the Panthers potentially scraping and clawing their way to an above average offense that puts them into relevance and gives their offense some competency. That's where they're scraping and clawing to. And when you have 32 teams, that tiering is inevitable. You're always going to have that where not every team is trying to win a Super Bowl every single year. Sometimes teams are just trying to be okay.

sometimes they're trying to get as good as they can in a single off season, and sometimes you're just trying to save jobs. And that's what's happening here, but that's what this is. It's just scraping and clawing your way into getting by to the next thing. And it's really hard to get excited about that because it's impossible to look at this and come to any other conclusion other than what are we doing? Where are we going? Where does this ultimately take us?

Yeah. Going into the day, Matt Ruhl was the clubhouse leader to the first to get fired. according to Vegas odds at 3 to 1. So also, but this is the flip side of it. So a guy that's most likely to get fired, I think we all know with the warm, hot seat that he's on, especially with the owner in Carolina.

This was the other kind of betting odds I looked at for this. And this is the odds, NFC teams who are favored right now to make the playoffs. Cowboys, Packers, Rams, Eagles, 49ers, bucks, and the Vikings are even money, minus 105. The Panthers right now are plus 450. That's pretty good. That's a good bet.

That's a good bet. Why I'm saying that is the Panthers, Matt Rule's mind is, if I make the playoffs, I save my job. Yeah. That's their goal. Like you just said, everybody has different goals. The Rams goal, the Bucks goal, way different. But the Panthers are more in line with the Saints kind of, like who they're competing

against and that kind of tier of team. So that's a great point to make. But that's what they're going, they're fighting to just be that seven or six seed. That is their goal for this year. And that would kind of make sense. they're like, well, let's look at the landscape right now. How many NFC teams are truly good or very good or excellent? Well, we can be frisky, you know.

We've seen teams like the Steelers a couple of years ago. We've seen the Eagles last year. Like, we just seen these random teams get the seventh seats. The Bears two years ago, like these teams get into the playoffs. And I think for Matt Ruhl to tell an owner and go, hey, we made the playoffs, don't fire me. This helps, you know. And then, but then on the flip side, I'd say, you do make the playoffs. Then you look back and you go, oh, yeah, we traded our third rounder for our third

strength quarterback. So that's where this team is at right now. There's not sound process involved with any of this. If it ends up with them making the playoffs and guys saving their jobs, that's a win for the people in the building. But if you're a fan of this team, it's like, okay. Okay. I guess we had a mildly entertaining year and I didn't hate myself every single Sunday. And there is value in that.

But looking at the big picture, it's really hard to get overly excited about what the next two, three, four years of this looks like. So you said, you like the Panthers depth chart more than that. than you might have thought before you started looking into it a little bit today. What areas are better than you had come into today thinking? Well, it's like Bozeman. I forget that Bozeman's their center now. So that's like a guy that I'm like, oh, shit, that's right. Okay, cool.

That makes me feel just a little better. I think he's a solid starter. But, you know, Corbett and Kuanu, like, I like, all right, the whole line's passable. Like, I actually think it's above average, maybe. I like, like, I already brought up the receivers. I like the synergy with DJ Moore. Marshall might have some upside there. I want to see if they get anything out Tommy Trembl, the Nordame guy from last year, the tight end, tight and fullback kind of guy.

But yeah, that's a whole other story. But we're getting to him probably sometime this season where I'm frustrated about his usage. But, you know, and then, you know, you had CMC coming back. And I mean, we remember CMC was still dynamic before he got hurt. It's just that I'm going to repeat this. He just gets hurt. It's not like he is last year when he was healthy. It wasn't like, oh, man, he's really lost a step.

It's like, no, he's still CMC. He's still incredibly dynamic. I really like the defense. I thought Phil Snow, we've talked about it a couple times last year early on, especially when it was passable to talk about the Panthers in a good light. But their defense, it was legit. I think they're eighth overall in defensive EPA just behind the Buccaneers. I'm just total generated.

You know, their blitz stuff on third down was a lot of fun. They have some good players. We love Brian Burns. Shaq Thompson has probably his best year last year. They get J.C. Horn back. So the defense might, defense might be like good. And so like you said, the upside with Baker might be a 16th best offense by DVOA, just throwing out a number.

What if they have the sixth, seventh best defense? That's a 10 and 17. Right. That's a 10 and 17. And that is a win to this organization. Yes. We, we as analysts as people that love watching the NFL, we might go, well, that's kind of, oh, we want, you know, we want teams to shoot for the stars or we want some fun rebuilding

team. Some guys are fine being a no man's land. Because that's a win for this, like for this team for them. This is about the path you choose. Yeah. When you are sitting there at the crossroads, which do you decide? They could have picked a quarterback eighth overall two years ago. They could have just picked Justin Fields.

And whatever you think of Justin Fields and there's a lot to be said about that. That's a whole different conversation. But they decided to do this quarterback dice roll thing over and over and over again. And when you try to live in that world, this is what you create for yourself. You create this sort of future and these. sort of circumstances and it's hard to get excited about where you're going from here when you're just sifting between the guys who were castoffs from other teams and that's what they've done. It's funny. The Colts and the Panthers are kind of like doing this this thing. It's like,

but there's just two different versions. One's kind of the Diet Coke version of the other. But, but it's kind of interesting. Like you say, I mean, this is the line we use a bunch, but it's paths. Like, but if you draft your quarterback at number eight, knowing that you at least have another year, the argument is, wow, look at the development of Justin, huh? Wow, we can really win some ball games in a year. If we get some, you know, if you want to pay some more money on bonuses, like, that's the argument you can start making. But they, they draft a J.C. Horde, who I think is going to be a fine player, a good corner,

but it's a little different than having a quarterback, which is always going to be the most important position. Let's talk about the Browns here a little bit. They take on $10 million a baker's salary. They're always going to have to do something. I mean, if they didn't want to release him outright, to get anything for him. And if he plays and they get a conditional fourth-round pick, when you've painted yourself into a corner in the way that they did

and you've sapped yourself of really any leverage in these negotiations, getting anything for him and not having to eat the $18 million, is probably a win considering where they were. Baker was never coming back. This idea of him potentially being their starter with if Watson were to get to spend it for a year, that was never going to happen. I think they were operating as though Berset was going to be their starter, no matter how long Watson was going to be out.

And so this being the end of the saga, I always anticipated it coming somehow, some way. And this is just the ultimately, this is ultimately the form that it took. Yeah. I mean, this, yeah, it seemed, it seemed kind of inevitable. But this was, I thought it was kind of,

as it went along, I originally thought maybe Baker would go for a third. You know, that was kind of my initial, where I was ballparking this value. And as time went along, It was more of a cold water, not only, probably on Baker, but I think all of us going, wow, his market has dropped that much. Like that is how like where people are just, the Browns are begging teams to take him off their hands, which they know they have no real leverage. That's the thing.

It's about when it happens and it's about the place that you're negotiating from. And that brings me the next thing I want to talk about. Yeah. The quarterback trade market over the last three or four years, the list is fascinating. Yeah. Okay. So if you go through like 2022, okay. Okay.

And we do this in chronological order and see what happens. Carson Wentz and his $28 million salary goes for two-thirds to Washington. Washington pays two third round picks to take on Wentz and that salary. Matt Ryan immediately goes for a third round pick after that. And then Baker, a couple months later, goes for a conditional fifth at only $5 million. I think this leads me to a larger discussion about what you're doing in these situations. Okay, what are you after? If you're a Washington,

what is the best thing you're hoping for with Carson Wentz? Who are you hoping to be as a team by trading two third round picks to get $28 million of Carson Wentz? I'm genuinely asking you. Yeah, they think they're a playoff team. Like, they think they're like a legit, we can win that NFC East. I mean, that's the type of move that is to me. That's saying the rest of our roster is good enough that we can get a one or two year guy out of this, starter out of this.

We can win those games. I think they talked themselves into it because of like what they did with Hainke before and saying like, wow, if we had a healthy quarterback, that's an upgrade in their minds. This is what we could end up kidding or doing during the season because our defense is going to be so good. Yada, yada, yeah. That's how they talk themselves into it, I think. I think the Colts were in a situation where they were desperate, right? They just needed somebody. And to get Matt Ryan for a third isn't too bad when you consider where they're at as a franchise, some of the other talent that they have.

and then Baker going to Carolina is just we need to raise the floor of our quarterback group. We need to make sure that bargain basement, worst quarterback play, worst offense in the NFL is not our low point. We need something that's even bottom two-thirds of the league is an improvement about that, and that's what they did. You look at the other trades going back a couple years, some of those other quarterback trades, went to Indy, which is just a whole different ballgame.

Teddy Bridgewater going to Denver for a sixth round pick. That is a we need a body at quarterback. We need a functional human. quarterback and that worked out for that. It did. That is not a bad trade. If that, having to give him a six round pick for what Teddy was for the Broncos last year, I think is actually a really good deal.

Super efficient quarterback. Yes. He was not bad last year. If everybody else plays well, you win. That's what you're going for. It's like a good jockey in horse racing. They don't lose you or the race, but they, you know, they might not win you the race, but they don't lose you the race.

And that's what this big, that's what the Baker deal is. Yeah. That's what the Baker deal is for the Panthers. And that's what I'm saying in a vacuum, if it was just the Baker deal, I'd probably be celebrating it. That's really good value. For a quarterback that's going to be able to, all right, we have a functional quarterback. Our offense can survive.

That's fine on its own. It's just when you take into account all of what's happened over the last two years, that it changes a little bit. You go back to 2020. Nick Foles goes to Chicago for a fourth round pick. Fourth. $15.6 million salary. $15.6 million. Year before, Joe Flacco goes to Denver for a fourth at his $19 million salary.

Ryan Tannahill goes to Tennessee. for a fourth $1.9 million. The year before that, Alex Smith, for Kendall Fuller and a third round pick goes to Washington. The reason I'm laying this out, this is not fertile territory

to find your guy. The only one of these that is a we bought low, look where it took us, was Tanna Hill going to Tennessee. And even that was short-lived. Because you get one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL for two years,

partially driven by the fact that he's not making anything I was going to say cheap. In the early parts of that deal. So you get him nothing to get him. You're not paying him anything. And you stumble into AJ Brown in the second round. You have this really hyper-specific version of offense that totally works for you.

But eventually you run into the wall. And that's where they are right now. They drafted Malik Wilson in the third round this year. They're looking at Tana Hill salary. I'm just saying we can no longer kind of operate in this way. We have to hit some sort of soft reset. That's what this offseason looks like for them. We know what happened with Washington drafting a quarterback in the first round

when they had Alex Smith. this place is all you're always going to be looking for the upgrade you're always going to be looking down the road around the corner you're always going to need another move when this is how you're searching for your quarterback right and that's kind of what this version of the quarterback trademark it feels like they're they're trying to red paperclip quarterbacks just get one percent better with each one it's it's fascinating to go through these trades by the way and just like it's so fun like going through Like, A.J. McCarron went for a fifth in 2018. The backup quarterback trades are funny.

AJ McCarran, David Blau got traded, which I didn't remember. It's funny seeing the names repeated. Like, Teddy comes up on this list a couple times. Joe Flacko's on here twice. Case Keenom's on here a few times. Like, it's kind of funny which guys get traded. Case Keenham got traded a couple times. So the backups is fine.

Backups, yeah, yeah, but for starters. You have, there's three tiers. There is the we are trading for a starting quarterback tier, which is the Russell trade, the Matthew Stafford trade. the first Wenz trade was a version of that, which is now hilarious in hindsight. Good on you, Howie Roseman. It's very well done getting what you did for Wents in that move. There is the we are shining up the tarnished asset trade.

So that's all the ones we talked about. Baker, Tanna Hill, Joe Flacco, even, Alex Smith. That's Nick Foles, all of that. And then there's the backup trades. Those are the three versions of it that we've gotten. But for the most part, there has been one unmitigated success story. And even that team that had the unmitigated success story has now run out of road with this version of their team because of what kind of quarterback you're going to get in that spot. It just always every conversation always leads back to the same thing.

It's like, man, sure nice if you have a star quarterback. Like that's like just and usually you have to, they have to have pedigree with them. I mean, it's just kind of usually there's only there's one Tom Brady, you know, but it's like everybody else. It's you have to hit on these guys and usually you have to give up a lot. lot or make a high pick on them unless you get lucky with a little mar Jackson. But it's it's, it's crazy, man. Like it's just, it's just, it's so boring to say that. But it's right.

That's what it is. I know. It's just like, man, it sucks to not have a star quarterback. But this is what it is. It's laid out in front of you. When you don't have one, this is the bullshit that you have to endure off season after off season where you're just constantly thinking about how can we pivot. How can we get a little bit better?

How can we do this? It's exhausting. It is so truly awful to be a franchise in this tier of teams. It's purgatory, the treadmill, whatever analogy metaphor you want to use. It is a shitty place to be. It's an NBA team without a star. Like, those are your two equivalents. NFL team without a real quarterback and an NBA team without a star.

Otherwise, you're just living in that midlands. It's kind of funny looking at other quarterbacks in NFC South, by the way, because it's number one pick a baker, number three, pick and Darnold, number one pick in James, number two pick in Marcus Marriota, and even the bucks have a top 10 pick and Blaine Gabbardt. So it's kind of funny, but like that's also, we're not reinventing the wheel here. It's really hard to find a quarterback, even if you put a top 10 pick on them. Like it's like, look at all these retreads that show up and they're all top 10 picks. We know that most teams exist in this big middle, right?

Most teams are living this life because it's really hard to find one. where you can start really, really going after teams is when they did it to themselves. And that's what the Panthers did. They could have picked a quarterback. Even if Justin Fields is a struggle last season, they could have picked a quarterback. Instead, they chose this route. They chose to do this where it's like, all right, let's get on this treadmill and let's try to look for our guy over and over and over again. That to me is where you can really get upset with how teams have operated.

Not that they have to be in this world that they did it for themselves. And that's what the Panthers did. And that's why I think it's worth criticizing. Yeah, it is. It's on forced error in a little bit. I would say unforce the error is like trying to find the quarterback. So I don't know if that's on force. You're always going to be trying to do it.

But it's just they shot themselves in the foot and then shot themselves at the knee and then shot themselves in the other foot. And then now they're like, now they're trying to walk it off. And so I think that's just what it is. It's sometimes I think it's a good way to look at how these teams have handled it. the eagle stock Carson Wentz was the guy. Nope. We think this is our path.

We've reached the limit of this path, especially the situation we were in. All right, we trade them on. But like just watching that, the Colts think they have their guy. They think they're taking their swing. Realized, okay, this was a loss. Okay, let's move on from it. Those are good moves. Those are realizing what are sunk costs.

And I think that's, that's, we talk about assets. We talk about not these things just in salary caps, but draft capital as well. But these players have stock. And sometimes you have to learn when you're a buyer, sometimes you're a seller. Not everyone's going to be a win, but sometimes you just got realized which is which. Like which is this, oh man, are we just doing this to mitigate that? But really, you know, the best teams go, we'll stop it. All the bad moves early on.

And they find these like little hidden gems like signing a guy for five million. You know, something like that. Like some type of move that finds these hidden edges. This is, these are hidden edges and especially when it's negative. The 2018 draft now. in retrospect is just fascinating. The fact that Baker and Sam Darnall are now on the same team and they've come to this place five years into their career after four seasons into year five.

Josh Rosen is essentially out of the league. Also another guy that got traded. Like he was a multiple times. Multiple times. Multiple times. He was a second rounder as well. Like another one from this top 10. Pretty much out of the league.

And then you have Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I mean, looking back on it and what we thought about why so and so should go in the top five, what they were as prospects. it's kind of colored the way that I think about quarterback play in the NFL over that entire five-year stretch. Like looking at it through that lens and what those guys were supposed to be and just thinking about the bets that Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson represented compared to some of those other guys. And I know Darnold was Tulsie, right? But it was different. It was different than the overwhelming promise of what Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson gave you.

And in the moment, I was quick to completely shit on the bills for. doing what they did. It's like, really, you're going to draft a guy with like a 50% completion percentage in college and was never a very good college quarterback. But I just think that it goes back to what we talked about with Deontay a couple weeks ago where you just have to be seeking out that upside. You have to be seeking out those explosive plays all of the time. And those guys that even if they're a little bit unpolished and even if it's hard to totally understand exactly what they're going to be, those huge, ceiling upside moves and upside bets, they're becoming more and more understandable as we get

into this version of the game. When you think about what that Bill's Chiefs game looked like and you think about those two guys trading haymakers, viewing it through that lens makes the 2018 draft make a lot more sense in retrospect. Yeah. I mean, it's we like with twin net quarterback, it's tools and process. And the best ones that we talk about now that we gush about every week the herberts the mohomes even the josh allen now those guys are able to create from the pocket or out of the pocket and also process from the pocket and do damage from there and i think it's kind of funny that baker and darnold are kind of like they had one of them but they had the missing ingredient of the other like darnell had the creation but like was just

like just scatterbrained from the pocket like trying to operate and process like he was a one and done read guy and then that's why a lot of it holding on to the ball and the baker was kind of like had some good process on the stuff. I would still say he was, he's always just been okay at that. But then, you know, had a little bit of creation,

but then have all the tools, the height, the true speed. Like he's a willing runner. He's a tough runner, but he's still like a four eight and change guy. He's not, yes,

240 running a four six. He's less athletic than he thinks he is. Yes. I know. I always, I always like love the like, you love the hustle with Baker. I mean,

you really do because sometimes you're like, man, this dude's tough. Like, I get it. Like, I get like, like that's how you're going to win.

but man, you're not playing against, you know, Oklahoma State or Kansas, man. Like you're playing, you're playing against T.J. Watt and all the Ravens defense. Those guys are coming after you. And so I think it's just like it's, you have to bet on the upside. And I think every year as we process these drafts and me and you talk about them, and it's just so funny, we're going to come back to it. It's like, can you create? Can you operate from the pocket? And it's going to be so hard for these quarterbacks that can't do one of those. It's going to be hard. Like, you have to have that package now. And once that you want to bet on, especially in the lottery, are the ones that can potentially do it. They might not show it

right away. But I think you're right where this draft and Bahomes as well and Deshaun Watson before that, they kind of like showed this kind of new total package QB, I guess. There are athletes and also had the brains to operate from the pocket. So I think that's kind of like those couple draft classes kind of us into this new wave of QBs. It's amazing how differently I think about the position now compared to what I thought about it on draft day in 2018. Oh yeah. Or even I'm like, yeah, I would say everybody to me, it was the perfect quarterback to me. It was, you know, of course, it's like Brady or Manning or they just dice you up from the pocket. They don't, though the quarterback should look like a point guard just thrown into the post every time.

Like he shouldn't, he doesn't have to score himself. And then now I'm like, no, Ron baby. That's why Rosen was supposed to be like the most polished pro ready guy of the entire group, right? Yep. And the idea that we're so far away from that and what we're seeking out at the position. And it happened really, really fast. And there are some catalysts in that, right? if Mahomes didn't exist, I don't know if it happens quite as fast and Lamar's MVP season.

There are reasons that it's gone this quickly. But the paradigm has shifted faster than I think any of us could have been ready for when you think about what the league looks like five years ago. I think that was, I think you said this as well, but it was like Gerigoff, that's the last time a quarterback like Jerry Goff is going to be the number one pick. Yeah. That's multiple people have said that to me. That's the last time. a quarterback trainer say that's the last time. It'd be the last time that a quarterback that can't move is the number one pick.

And I honestly think that Baker is kind of like that. You have somebody that can't beat you with his legs. It's not over here. Let's say this. I've always said it this way. It's not a playmaking quarterback. Baker Mayfield is not a playmaking quarterback. If things break down, Baker Mayfield is not going to go get you a bucket.

That is not what he's going to do. Lawrence can't. He's 6'6 and he's statu-esque, but he can move really well. for a guy that big. So I think you're, I totally agree with that. I just don't think we're going to see guys with that limited movement skills and just that non,

that not eye-popping physical talent, but from an arm perspective and from a movement perspective, go number one if there are multiple quarterbacks available on a draft. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, that's the thing with Baker. Baker has a longer release because he throws it as hard as he can every single time.

He always, I've mentioned it before. I joke about it, but it's true. He always scrambles to his right because he, doesn't have that. It's, this is a good way to, throwing to the left is hard. I just want to reiterate this to people.

Throwing to the left is hard. You have to be a good athlete to do it or just, you know, have great mechanics to be able to whip everything around, which also ties them to be an athlete. Put it this way. At Wisconsin, we only ran bootlegs to the left for Russell and none of the other quarterbacks. Okay. We only ran sprint out from under center to the left with Russell. Other quarterbacks, we were in the shotgun if we had to sprint out to the left. Like, it's a little harder.

You have to be a better athlete to do it. So like with Baker, that's kind of telling that he always goes to the right because he can't trust himself to work to the left or he doesn't trust his athletic ability. And that's, you like the toughness, but sometimes he's his own worst enemy. And you hope with better receiving talent or maybe just an offense that maybe gives him a little more say in what's going on. Because I think, I think Stefansky, no follow of his own has taken away from Baker and going like, yeah, we're going to rely on the run game. And you're 20 throws, not 40 throws. But maybe Baker, when he has a little more say, can talk about things. Maybe things are a little more spread open because that's what McAdoo likes that might play into what Baker's good at.

So he's really a pocket passer that can run tough. I'm trying to think like a quarterback that runs like him back from like the late 90s. But that's kind of what he is. He's an athletic quarterback from the late 90s as opposed to an athletic quarterback in 2022. That long way, too long didn't read. That's what I'm trying to say. Panthers fans are just thrilled. That's what a glowing review that is, Baker Mayfield at this stage of things.

Congrats on Jake Delon. Like you got, you got millennial Jake Delon. All right. Last thing here. Where the hell does Jimmy Garoppolo go now? So, I mean, there are no trade landing spots because the only team without a quarterback now is Seattle. It feels like Seattle is ready to roll with this. Whatever ends up looking like, Gino and just see how the year plays out.

Maybe you're bad. I was surprised. I'm surprised that they are willing to go into it like that. Not because I think it's a bad idea. I think it's totally acceptable. But when you consider just organizational culture and the way that they've approached things, I figured they would try to get somebody that sent a different message to the building than what they've done, I guess. Maybe they're comfortable with Gino.

I have no idea. But if Seattle's off the table for Jimmy as a trade destination, which he absolutely is, right? Absolutely is. Yeah. It seems like he's probably going to have to be released. God. Because... That's crazy, too.

which team is going to this is different than Baker right the Browns were incentivized to trade Baker because they would be on the hook for all 18 million if he were released the Niners can save all of the money they can save all of it if they move on from Jimmy they only pay like a million dollars in dead money

teams know that teams know that they're incentivized to move on from that so if he's released then maybe Seattle becomes a potential landing spot because they could sign him, but if they don't, if Seattle's off the table, the teams that came to my first for me, Denver, Josh Johnson is their backup right now. Just protecting yourself. You've made this huge investment in Russell Wilson.

Let's say you can sign Jimmy for one year $5 million as your backup, right? Just as an insurance policy. Yeah. The Texans? Yeah, that's very valid. Let's say you have the Gissario connection and then let's just say Davis Mills craps out midway through the year. You want to give yourself a quarterback

that keeps you somewhat competitive. Jimmy's sitting there on the bench. The Bengals? Again, protecting yourself. Brandon Allen is their backup quarterback, and then the Cowboys is the other one. Just because I think Cooper Rush is still their backup. Teams that here's one year,

five million, you're on a good team. If the guy gets hurt, you're going to be surrounded by really good players. If you play, you'll probably show flashes. You can build up your value. But I have no idea what's going to happen with him and how this plays out. because it really does seem like it's moving toward an end where he gets released.

Yeah. I mean, like the obvious answer originally, originally, like way months and months ago was, oh, yeah, he'll just follow McDaniel to the dolphins.

And, and like, that was like, okay, I could see that happening. The whole wink, wink, like,

oh, yeah, he's our backup, wink, wink, wink, but it's, but, now Teddy's there. And the Teddy's there. Exactly.

On the cheap. Or kind of that middle level contract, which I think you pointed out. That was like, oh, that's not really back up money. They're paying up. But it's,

I'm trying to like, there's no real other teams. I mean, especially with his style. Like before the draft, like the Steelers made sense to me. But that was before the draft. And they just spent a first draw pick. I can you pick it? So not so much there. And I mean, the Eagles are going on what hurts.

I mean, I'm just, no one can see me right now, but I'm just like staring off into the distance trying to think I'm going whenever I, I've said this before, whenever I think of the NFL, when you, when you ask me a question, like, oh, which teams? I always go west to east and like in my brain. So I go by division. So yeah. But that's, I really can't think of anyone. But that's what he's,

that's what it seems like he's going to be a super backup, wherever he ends up. I'm trying to think other teams. I might take a stab at him. So Teddy got a one year, six and a half million dollar deal. I think that's probably the general structure. Like if I were Jimmy Groposization,

I'd want this super backup contract. And, you know, there aren't a ton of teams that are probably going to jump at that. Just because it's a lot of money to devote to your backup quarterback in August. potentially. But it does feel like there would be teams out there just to protect themselves if their starter got hurt. Like we need to be able to stay afloat for five games because we're a contender.

Those are the teams that I would probably. And if you feel like your locker room is strong enough, right? Well, Jimmy's not going to rock the boat. Like he's not, I don't think he's that type of personnel. Like that's another thing with Baker that people got to remember. Baker's personality was probably his own worst enemy at times with how other teams are treating them and going like, we don't bring that out of like that guy in here. So I think with Jimmy, it's more like, oh,

yeah, he won't rock the boat. He's fine, which some people have knocked him for over the years. But it's actually in his role now is a good thing. But that's just also you got to take him personality sometimes too. All right. That's all we got. Oh, yeah, we have a quick 20 minute episode. All right.

We will be back tomorrow. Very excited about that. Before we get out of here, a reminder to all of you. Following the show right now, we'll be the trailer for luck, our new narrative podcast series from Z. Zach Kiefer, we peel back the curtain in a way that's never, ever been done before on one of the most unique careers in NFL history. All six episodes of luck are going to be dropping in the athletic football show feed on July 11th. You can listen to those as a binge on Monday.

You can listen to one a day. However, you want to attack that, we are going to be off next week when I say we, I mean me and Nate and the others that you're used to getting in your feed. But those episodes will be available to you starting on Monday. So please check out the trailer. We are super, super excited for the show. You guys should be as well. Me and Nate will be back on Friday. Until then, appreciate the time.

We'll talk to you guys soon. At the center of one of the greatest what-ifs in NFL history is one of the greatest quarterback prospects of all time. What if the Colts have protected Andrew Luck? It's amazing that the Colts could move on from Peyton Manning. And nobody really blinked. The reason why Andrew turned around the Colts and turned around Stanford was that beast inside of.

them that would look at the opposing team and saying, I'm going to kill you today. My encounters with him were unlike other encounters I would have with quarterbacks. He could have been a thoracic surgeon. He could have been anything. I don't think there's ever been a smaller gap between someone's floor and their ceiling. If it's one to ten, he's a ten in every category. It's Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Rutherzburg. It's all wrecked of one.

High end, he's a Hall of Famer. Low end, he's a multi-year Pro Bowl. or like I can't see there's any way this guy doesn't succeed. I just remember him saying, Jacobi, like, this is going to sound weird, but can you hit me on the sideline? Because I need to feel the game right now. I don't think I'm supposed to hit you.

When Andrew, it was very secretive. Seeing all the treatment he would go through, see all the hits he would endure, it was like, man, I know you have to be injured. He gets sandwiched between two linebackers at that moment. He has a ruptured kidney. The sort of injury used to stay in a car crash, basically. I never knew what the hell was bothering until all this news.

came out and it was like, oh, wait, he was suffering from this? It was all news to us. If the people that succeeded us that put a team around it, as we did with Peyton, the results probably would have been the same. Andrew Luck has become a cautionary tale for any team with an up-and-coming quarterback who doesn't have protection. I remember both of us having a moment where we both were teary-eyed going. Man, this beautiful, beautiful player is not going to play anymore.

I'm Zach Kiefer from The Athletic, and I'm the host of a new podcast series called Luck. It's the Andrew Luck story as you've never heard it. The series looks to answer this question. How did the greatest quarterback prospect since John Elway, the very player the Colts moved on from Peyton Manning for, end up walking away from the game before he was 30 years old? All six episodes will be released on July 11th. Look for luck on the Athletic Football Show podcast feed wherever you get your podcast.

And listen to Luck ad-free on the athletic app.