The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Brugler & Zierlein: 2022 NFL mock draft 3.0 + player comps that could provide teams a bargain deal

Episode Date: April 13, 2022

As the 2022 NFL Draft inches closer, Dane Brugler talks with NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein about his latest mock draft. Lance explains why he believes Travon Walker could go No. 1, how the QBs could fall out of the top 10 and more. Then, they discuss several players who could provide teams a big bargain late in the draft compared to similar first round talent.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome back. I'm Dane Bruegler, joined as always with NFL.NFelan. This is the athletic football show, our midweek NFL draft edition. Today, we're going to take a look at Lance's updated mock draft. You can find that at NFL.com. Go check it out. We're also going to talk a little bit about a fun exercise where kind of look at in the bargain bin. If you can't get Prospect A in the first round, Who's another player later on in the draft who fits a similar profile just at a cheaper price?

And we can talk about the pros and cons of that. So we're going to debate some of those players. But like I said, first, let's jump into this mock draft. Lance, I know your favorite thing to do in life is mock drafts. How is it putting this one back? Oh, man, it's such a blessing. Isn't it? Yeah.

Well, you know what, though? here's what's here's it's a problem for me just because it starts off smoothly for about the first six picks and then it quickly unravels because i i'm kind of a perfectionist with mock drafts and that's a bad combination because it's impossible to find it's a sudoku that cannot be properly finished it will always leave you unsatisfied and once you start going back so this mock took me close to 11 hours. And that will sound crazy to some people, but you have to understand that I go back and mess with this, I mess with that.

I go check salary cap figures for players that are currently on rosters to anticipate moves. I do, you know, I do a lot of research with team needs where I'll look at a lot of different sources, including beat riders. I went to the athletics searching and scouring as a matter of. for some of them. I went to Dan Parr and Chase Goodbread. Did a great job of putting together team needs on the NFL.com page.

I like to check fan sites because I think some fan sites do a really good job of putting together team needs. I think they have a good feel for their teams. And so, you know, that's a big important part of it. But then once my problem, Dan, is once I start to, okay, projecting trades is fun and sometimes it's helpful in terms of making the pieces fit a little bit better for you, but also anticipating teams that are more likely to move up and that have the draft capital to do such. But when you start going back and making changes,

or once I start talking to people who might be in the league and they say, where do you have this player? And I say 22. I'm like, no, no, no, they'll definitely be gone by then. Well, now I'm looking to, I'm not just going to. I'm not just going to let that ride. I might on Mach 1.0, but not at 3.0. And so I start finding a place to, you know, to put this player. And then all of a sudden there's a domino effect of players I'm having to move. And I blew up and reassembled my draft two or three times yesterday last night. Well, I should say we're recording, but it was Sunday night at that particular time. And it just got to where it was driving me crazy. because I'm trying to get this perfect mock. And that's an absolutely impossible exercise because every year drafts have three to four crazy things that happen every single year,

which is what makes it funny when people criticize us about our aggressive movements and projections and mock drafts, as if everything is going to be smooth through any draft. it's never smooth through any draft, and you're going to have players that you don't expect hit the first round. There's, I mean, it's an exercise in futility. It really is. And so I actually, I'm working on my seven-round mock, which comes out later this week. Oh, my God. And trust me, I'm in the fourth round right now, and I've just got some information that I need to go back to the first round and change a few things. And there's going to be a domino effect that is just, I'm not looking forward to. So trust me, I feel your pain. it's because yeah I mean we don't do

just do mocks just to do them I mean you really want to well best explain every single pick for you know the exact reasoning why you think they're going to happen

based on what you're hearing not based on your own opinion on the player or what you think team should do but based on what you're hearing based on trends and so for so let's dive into

your mock now do you have a little bit of shakeup at the top And this is something that we've talked about before at number one with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Aiden Hutchinson, the betting favorite. I know they like Aiden Hutchinson. The question is, would they like Trayvon Walker maybe a little bit more and that upside that he offers? And I would not be surprised at all. In fact, that's exactly what you have at number one.

Was that something that you wrestled with? Is that something that was pretty easy for you to do at number one? Talk to your thought process there with Trayvon Walker to the jab. No, it was easy. I had some information given to me about three weeks ago. And so it was a pretty reliable source and said I should plug in Trayvon Walker at number one in my next mock draft. And we went through it and I heard the talking point of Trent Balkei loves, you know, he's the guy that had Alden Smith. and he's going to see this kid is the same as Alden Smith.

And, you know, I've done this long enough to know that the traits, when he had his workout, there was no doubt to me, Trayvon Walker was going to shoot up the boards. But then in talking to NFL teams, that's the guy that they are getting a little bit excited about anyway at the combine. But then his combine was big time. His testing was huge. He has these long 35 plus arms, which, you know,

you know that's kind of rare length and then for for his size and then you factor in he's an elite run defender he's physical he has very high football character and then you know other people I still want to see pass rush I still you know I'm still curious about if I'm going to see more rush than I saw on tape once he's playing a little wider outside but it just it's more likely that a projectable player. I saw it happen with Mario Williams when he is at NC State over Reggie Bush and Vince Young, who were two hot names that year in 2006. But the guy that was the tester who had rare physical traits was the guy that moved up the boards to number one. So that wasn't unusual. Now, I'll tell you what is, and here's a little pulling back to curtain,

this is what's concerning me a little bit. Because I've been around also long enough for people to throw, I recognize when I'm dealing with smokescreen and I also have friends who are going to be honest with me about information and I have to guard that information. The person that gave me that information I feel like is very honest with me and gets good information and he's helped in the past. The problem is I'm hearing the same talking points. Now with Pete Schrager used that. The other day I heard it was either in Rappaport or Mike Garofello last week, I think, used it, and maybe even Field Yates has used it. So now we're talking about three or four

different guys in the media have said the same thing that I had told to me three weeks ago. Right. And so now I'm concerned, okay, now wait a minute. Is this being put out there? Are the Jaguars getting this out there to people? Now, the next question becomes why would they do that? Well, they would potentially do that if they know that he's the hot name. It's not going to be a quarterback this year. So maybe if he's the hot name, you have the Texans trade up from three to one. Maybe you have the lines trade up from two to one. Maybe they are

trying to bait someone at one, two, three, or four into moving up. And all of those teams have additional draft capital. Maybe they're trying to bait a team to move up and take and take Trayvon Walker. So when I got the information, I thought this is good information, it checks out with what I would expect to see a team do. But then when I'm hearing multiple people using the same talking points about Alden Smith, that's where I start to become a little bit concerned about, wait a minute now. Is this something that has been put out there? By the way, I would give Jacksonville tremendous credit if they had done that. If you have the first pick, you really don't have to smoke screen anything unless you're trying to get someone to come up and take your pick.

So at this point, I think Trayvon Walker is going to be the pick. But I will say Pete Schrager from Good Morning Football is now the fourth person, either third or fourth person. I've heard you use the same. It sounds exactly the same. And you may remember Trent Balke was at San Francisco and drafted Alden Smith. And I'm like, wait a minute, this thing, I mean, this matrix, this glitch in the matrix keeps going over and over and over. So now I'm a little bit concerned about whether that info is a plant or whether everyone's just getting good info. Well, and, I mean, I don't know.

Lance, you and I both have some similar sources. I know that because, you know, I've heard the same thing. And it makes sense. Like, I don't think it's maybe specific to one source. because I think it does make sense that it's something that has been circulating around. It would be, I think it'd be surprising, but it wouldn't be shocking, put it that way, if Trayvon Walker is the number one pick. For those reasons, the upside.

And again, I think people need to, this isn't just based on the combine. Trayvon Walker was a top 10 pick before the combine. That's very important for everybody understands. So this isn't just based off of him running around. in Indianapolis. This is based off of the traits that he puts on film and what you think he's going to be. The draft is all about projecting. It's all about, you know, not what you have done. It's what you're going to do. It's projecting forward. And Aidan Hutchinson's a good player. But if Trouin Walker has a super sealing and you think that he's going to get there, then you

roll the dice. It's definitely a maybe a juxtaposition of, you know, talking about sealing and floor because Aiden Hutchinson, I don't think, has a super high ceiling, but he's got a super high floor. You know what you're getting with Aidan Hutchinson, where Chavon Walker, I think he's got a fairly decent floor as well just because of all the traits and, you know, like you mentioned, high football character, all those things, but he also has that high ceiling. And that's what you're betting on with him at one. So I give you credit for doing it. Chavon Walker at one. Aiden Hutchinson, no surprise then at number two, to Detroit. Three, you went with Evan Neil. And this is where we got a little bit of run on offensive linemen here with Neil at three,

Charles Cross at six, and Iquandu at seven. What made you go in that order with Neil Cross, Iquan, Wu? Well, so a lot of people are plugging three defensive ends back to back to back at one, two, three right now. And I don't think Kavon Tibado is a Texan. I don't believe that he is going to check the football character boxes that Nick Casario and Jack Easterby and Lovey Smith are going to want. That's not a slam of the person. I know how the Texans move, and I don't think K. Von Tibido is going to be a fit for what they're looking for.

So once I moved out of Kvon, Tibido, I had to work through the fact that Lovie Smith needs an edge rusher. And so I thought about Jermaine Johnson. And I thought, you know, I texted a couple of people in the league and said, hey, how close do you think Jermaine Johnson and K. Von Tibado are? Like, how do you, how closely do you have those guys rated? And both people that answered said they had Tibado ahead of Jermaine Johnson, which I do as well. But they didn't have it by a lot. So I tried to say, okay, can I talk myself into, is this something that Lovie Smith and Nick Hissario might do?

But the more I went through it, you know, Evan Neal, I looked, I went and did the research on Laramie Tunsell's cap number because I thought I had this right and I did. Laramie Tunsell basically is an easy cap cut after this year. So playing Evan Neal at right tackle this year in place of Charlie Heck and even Titus Howard, who is not the draft pick of Nick Casario. And that's something to remember every time you're looking at former first round picks. Russ Blacklock and Titus Howard, those two guys who were early picks from Bill O'Brien's regime, they're not Nick Hissarios.

So he doesn't have any reason to stick with guys if he doesn't believe in them. And so the Texans need guard help, they need right tackle. And then after 2022, I believe that they will need left tackle because I think they'll move on from Laramie Tunsell's contract hit. And that's why I decided, let's go Evan Neal here. and he will be either a right tackle or a guard in year one, but then will eventually become the left tackle for the Houston Texans. Now, Charles Cross, when I went to Carolina, my thought process was Ikea Kuanu is the better prospect,

the higher ceiling, but he's going to be a little bumpier early on in his career, I think, with past protection stuff. And I'm not 100% sure that every team is going to see him as a tackle. I think a lot of teams are going to see him as a guard. And I think one of the things that Carolina needs is they need tackle help and they need it fairly quickly. And for me, I think both players can be plug-in-play players. I just think you're more likely to get more consistency from the tackle position at Cross. I think Equanu has greater long-term talent and a higher ceiling.

But I just kind of looked at Carolina as choosing to go with the Shorefire left tackle. The guy they were sure was a left tackle and a guy who could step in and start right away. So that's why I decided I didn't anticipate going crossover Aquano, but once I got there, I felt more comfortable putting him with Carolina. And then I thought that made it a fairly easy move because the fifth pick for the Giants, I had Tibido at five, so it made it easier to go get my offensive linemen at Kwano with the seventh pick. Well, and that's the struggle with Tibido. You mentioned how you didn't think Houston would be a natural fit.

I question if, you know, the Giants with the first year general manager and that franchise, if they're going to see Tibido as a football character fit. And that's the struggle we're going to have with Tibido with a lot of these, you know, projections, you know, the possibilities. Because, yeah, he could go three, could go four, could go five. There's a lot of places that Tibido could go in the top 10. But it's at a certain point, a franchise is going to be able to. like, okay, you know, the talent, the ability, what he offers to our team is just too great to

pass up here. You know, we'll give a little bit on some of the other questions. And at some point, that's going to happen. It's just, when is that going to be? Is it four in the jets? Is it five and the Giants? Like you have it with Tibido? That's an interesting, one of the more interesting storylines of the first round is going to be that. Which team, which franchise feels the most comfortable about Kavon Tibido. And just, you know, the fact that he's a really talented player, but there are just questions off the field. So you've got them to the Giants.

And so you've got Tibadoe and Iquanu, 5 and 7. Pretty, I mean, that's a, for a first show general manager, getting the pass rusher and the offensive lineman, a nice little coup for them. You had Sauce Gardner going forward to the Jets. And then the Falcons, Garrett Wilson. And so no quarterback in a top eight. And this is what I struggle with with doing a mock draft right now is figuring out these quarterbacks. You did not have a quarterback going in a top 10, which you know, you and I have talked before on the plot about we just a quarterback of two just does not seem likely at all.

But six, eight, those two spots, Carolina and Atlanta, those are two interesting spots for a quarterback. How strongly did you consider a quarterback to those two spots? I did, and I have put quarterback inside the top 10 in the past in my last mock. But you know, here's what it came down to with Matt Rule. He needs to win now. And I think any quarterback that you draft, especially if it's the high ceiling, lower floor, Malik Willis, I think Malik needs time. And when you have a head coach who is making some personnel decision,

and who is heavily involved in personnel, and frankly, who I think is going to be on the hot seat this year, a lot of times those types of head coaches who had that type of personnel sway will just avoid drafting developmental quarterbacks because it's just, it takes a lot of guts to draft a player who may not benefit you and to do what's right potentially by the organization.

And I don't know that Malik Willis is the right picket six, regardless of how you view, you know, of how you view that situation. But I just said, you know what? I don't think they're going to draft a developmental quarterback right now if Matt Rule has his say-so on personnel. And then in Atlanta, you know what came down to this? I think Atlanta is going to stink this year.

And Atlanta has good draft capital. And I just simply did one glance into the 2023 quarterback class. And I just basically said, you know what, Atlanta? Why don't you sit this one out? take your L's next year and get in the sweepstakes for a quarterback next year. That's how I looked at it with Atlanta. Yeah, and I mean, that makes sense. I think a lot of teams are going to be looking that way,

looking at next year and, you know, with CJ Stroud and Bryce John. I mean, it's, it is tough because not every front office has that stability, has that security where they feel confident looking towards the 2023 draft and really planning for that. But that's the smart way to approach this, instead of just taking the best that you have to offer this year. But I think it also depends on how each one of these teams,

Carolina, how do they really view Kenny Pickett? How does Atlanta really view Malik Willis? If they view Malik Willis as a guy that they think is going to be a top 10 quarterback in the league down the road, then can you really pass on them? Probably not. But it's, in the Falcon, They're at a weird spot in there with where they're at in this turnover and this rebuild.

Because they still, the caps of mess. I mean, they're next year, next off seasons when they should have a lot of cap space. But, you know, your quarterback, that's one year off the ticker. And you only got four years left on that rookie contract. But Malik Willis is a guy you're going to sit no matter what. So these quarterbacks, I talked to one source that tells me, look, they're going early. I mean, I guarantee you that. I talk to another source that I trust implicitly,

and he says, I just don't see how these quarterbacks go top ten. So, I mean, it's really, it's hard to figure it out when there's so much conflicting feelings around the league, where these quarterbacks are going to end up. You have it, Malik Willis 16 to the Saints, and then you have, can I tell you, can I tell you, I'll pull, let me pull the curtains back. Okay. I had at Malik Willis 13 to the Lions for a while. Trading back from two or trading up for the 32?

Trading up from 32. Okay. Because I went through the draft chart. So I went through Rich, so I'm just going to go through process here. I went through Rich Hill's draft tech captures Paltz Paltz Pulp at Rich Hill, right? He's done the newest version of the trade capital, draft trade capital, not just. Jimmy Johnson's oldwood, but this is a more updated version. And, you know, based on, so I did two things here.

I looked at what the Chicago Bears and a similar, you know, bears moved from 20 to 11 last year, the Bears gave up quite a bit to get their hands on Justin Fields. So I'm looking at the trade, I'm looking at the trade chart. And the trade chart's telling me that Detroit can move from 32 to 13. and all they have to do is give up their second round pick from this year. It's an early second rounder, and they should be good. Or maybe it was even, yeah, yeah, the second rounder from this year. And I just thought, God, if I'm Houston, I want more for the 13th pick

than moving to 32 and getting the 34th pick of the second round. I know that's what the trade chart says, but that's not actually what happened when the Bears moved from 20 to 11 last year to get their hands on Justin Fields. And so for a long time, I just said, well, I'll just figure out the, you know, the compensation is the compensation. And I really could see the lion saying, you know what, we were feisty all year long. We like our running back.

We like our tight end Hawkinson while he's on a rookie deal. We think we're ready to go win some games. We're going to get Aidan Hutchinson or Trayvon Walker with the first two, you know, with our second pick. Let's move up and be aggressive and let's go get our quarterback of the future. and let them sit behind Jared Gough or maybe even compete for playing time by the midpoint of the season. And I still think that's a possibility, but I just, after about five hours of letting it sit there, I just said, you know what, I just don't see the Texans moving from 13 all the way back to 32.

And so that was one of the times I had to blow up my draft. And then I thought, well, so the Saints 16, if I have quarterback getting all the way to 16, would the Saints take Malik Willis? Because if they do, you're going to have the Chargers sitting right behind them taking Trevor Penning because they need a right tackle. And the Saints also need a left tackle.

And so I thought, well, I could take penning at 16 because this is what goes into a mock draft. We're trying to think for multiple teams. So I said, I could take pinning at 16 and try to get slick and wait for Malik Willis at 19. But my thought process there was you know, would the Saints pass on Malik Willis if he were still available at 16, even if that wasn't their anticipation that they would take the quarterback?

And ultimately, I decided, okay, let's play it out with the Saints taking Willis, and then I'm going to take away the Saints' opportunity to get a left tackle, and then I'm going to have to, you know, let the chips fall where they may. And so, you know, 16, honestly, Dane, in talking to one of the things that happens when I start talking to teams later in the process like now, I find out that they have guys graded, certain guys graded the same way I saw them. And it wasn't the same as maybe the draft media has had them. And it's always hard to block out the noise and have confidence in your evaluations.

But when that starts happening and I start saying, well, wait a minute now, I need to go back and maybe not panic about moving this player up or that player up because of media noise. I need to trust my evaluations and trust my. eyes when I've seen the tape because I feel like I'm pretty good at evaluating. So why don't I trust that some teams will see it similar to me? So I think ultimately I don't think the tape, I don't think the tape says any quarterback's a top 10 quarterback. So I'm going to stick with that.

I do think that we are going to see some trades and somebody is going to come up and come get a quarterback. It could be the Lions. It could be the Steelers. Maybe it could be the Saints. but I do think that someone is going to snap up a quarterback before the 16th pick ultimately. Yeah, you know, it's, and a lot of times

try to follow breadcrumbs when it comes to mock drafts. And just looking at who has done the most work on these quarterbacks, Steelers, unsurprisingly, they've done a ton of work on these quarterbacks. They've taken each one of these quarterbacks out to dinner, wine and dined them. You know, the ownership was in meetings at the combine. The Steelers are all in on drafting a quarterback. The Panthers have done a lot of work on these quarterbacks.

I think that's a trade. By the way, I think the Panthers would be more than happy to trade back and take a quarter. 100%. Oh, yeah, they've laid the ground. Because they don't have a second. Absolutely. Not only do they want more draft capital on day two or draft capital period on day two. If they really want to draft a quarterback,

they'd rather do it at 13 or 14 and not in the top 10, top six. So there's no question. I know for a fact they have made those calls and, you know, set in the, hopefully for their sake, setting the groundwork for that. I mean, Tom will tell if they're able to pull that off or not. You know, and it's something that we have to remember too that the opinions on these quarterbacks and these players in general are so different from team to team. I know one team that has Jamison Williams as their number one receiver on their board.

He is at the top, clear-cut, top receiver in this draft. You talk to other teams, and, you know, he might be fourth or fifth among these receivers. So it just depends on what you're looking for. You know, each scouting eye is different. And it's just this draft, especially with the way things shake out. So let's keep it going here with some of your picks. Like I said, quarterback Malik Willis is 16 to the Saints. Kenny Pickett 20 to the Steelers.

You know, that's an interesting fit, obviously, with Pickett. playing in Hinesfield for the Pitt Panthers. That's something that, you know, you could see happening. I like some of your picks in the teens. I think that there's natural fits. Carl Loftus at 14 to the Ravens just makes a ton of sense. I really petting to the Chargers, again, just makes a ton of sense. You have trailing Berks to the Eagles.

I like that quite a bit. James and the Saints. I believe that's what I have in my mock draft as well. So I, let me just tell you, some things that I had to happen. So I had the Packers moving up for, I had the Packers moving up and drafting Traylen Burks at one point. I had them flip-flopping going to the Chargers.

And like I said, I went back and forth. I had them moving up to the Chargers when I had 16 initially, when I had Penning being drafted by the Saints initially, I moved, I said, I had the Chargers saying, well, screw this. and moving back to number 22 and then having, because a lot of times that's what happened with teams. If a team as a player they want,

get jacked right before they pick, they'll just trade back. And so I had them trading back. I had the Packers trading up to grab a receiver for Aaron Rogers. I let that sit there for a while, but once I altered the Malik Willis, then I had to undo that trade because I think the Chargers will take a tackle.

I think they'll view tackle is that important that they would trade, that they would turn down trade requests. I had Traylon Burks at different times. I had him with the Eagles. And then another time I had him with the Saints at 16. So I bounced him back and forth. But the more I, you know, after we were done with the combine and after we're done with him, maybe his pro day not being as great at testing pro day, you know what?

He's a good football player. He's got good body control. He's big. He's great with the ball in his hands. I think he's going to be a good pro player. I had to trust my evaluation. I think Jameson Jameson Williams was the top wide receiver to me when I watched tape until the injury. And the second best of Traylon Burks, or it was actually very close, actually.

Both were neck and neck. I thought they were both better by a pretty decent amount from the next wide receivers personally. So, but one guy has an ACL injury and another guy, you know, you have to be okay with the type of wide receiver he is. because Berks is a little different type of wide receiver. But I felt like those were pretty good fits. It just took a while for me to get there because there's so many. I think the middle of the first has a lot of different combinations that would make sense. But Karloftus to the Ravens is one that I think felt like the most natural when I put that together.

And that's the first time I put that player with that team. Going into the 20s, you have a trade. So they only trade in this mock, correct? I had three, and then I knocked it down to one. So your trade that you do have in your final walk here, you have the chiefs trading up with the Cardinals. So going from 29 to 23, the chief's going up to get Olave, which the chief's obviously trading, Tyree Kill,

and bringing on another receiver going and get Chris Olave, which, I mean, him and the homes, I mean, I don't know, insert receiver here with Mahomes, and it's going to be fun. Well, I had them initially, I had them initially trade. I had someone tell me, plug the chiefs in with Jameson Williams, and they also told me James and Williams is going way before I had them. So I had them trading up for James and Williams, but I don't know. I think I've got Jameson.

Who did I have taking Jameson Williams? 19. So that's when I had to blow up. I was like, okay, well, now Brett Veach, I don't feel like going to change it. Sorry, Brett, you just traded up for Chris Olave. Well, and it's interesting about the Packers passing on Olave for Jordan Davis. But then coming back, they get their receiver at 28 Green Bay going with Christian Watson, who... Here's my thought.

Let me tell you my thought process on that and see if you agree with that. I think a team will go in. They'll have their board. Green Bay will say, wow, this guy is a special talent, special traits, can stop the run. let's draft him because we already know we like Christian Watson. And so sometimes when you have your board the way you like it, you can anticipate that another player will be available if you have two picks. And so they may have had Chris Alivey or Jameson Williams,

but I think if Jordan Davis is still on the board, they may say, you know what, let's go to plan B. Let's take Jordan Davis here and let's go get the other guy that actually fits what the Green Bay Packers have looked at in years past at that position, a bigger wide receiver. I just couldn't get comfortable with the Lave outside, replacing Devante Adams size with Chris Alave, who's not a big physical guy.

I felt okay with trading up for Traylon Burks, but something about Alave doesn't feel like the body type fit of what they may be looking for. So I went with the vertical guy who is a little more angular, but who has height, weight, speed. And so if that was the case, if they like Watson, then I feel like they could get Jordan Davis and take their chances that Watson would be back there at 28.

Yeah, and I think it all comes down to how big of a gap do they see between Oliva and Watson. If it's not a big gap, then sure. I mean, that makes perfect sense. And that's, I mean, Christian Watson I struggle with a little bit just because I do too. I mean, there's a lot to like traits-wise. And he's absolutely killed at this draft process. But, I mean, too many drops. He's still very raw as a route runner.

I don't know. I have questions there. but a guy that has that type of ability would not be a surprise at all if he ends up going top 32. So the chief's moving up to 23. Cardinals moving back to 29, picking up Reese Hall there, the only running back you have in the first round. So it's interesting. They pay James Connor, and then they come back and draft the first round running back. So they're going, what, two back sets and just going to have some fun with that Arizona offense?

Well, I think Connor is still a guy who's a hammer in. the short yardage stuff. But I also don't think James Conner is a long-term solution at all. I think Breece Hall at the end of the day is a full package running back who can run, who can catch. I mean, he can catch it. He's a first, second, third downback. I think he can be a bell cow back for you.

You know, James Connor was the running back that they needed in the short term, but he's not nearly as dynamic. And for me, I believe that you look at best, that you look at the best fit. for what you're trying to do. I could see cornerback in that spot as well. Honestly, I could see them looking at a Kyler Gordon. I've got Andrew Booth falling out of the first. And I think there's going to be problems.

Yeah, I think the medical. I think having two different surgeries on the sports hernia or the issue he has with the core muscle stuff, that's a concern for me. I think that may end up being a concern for teams. I would definitely have him in the first, if not for that. And it's one of the reasons I snobes. cut Kyler Gordon into the first, besides the fact that I'm being told he's a first round guy. So I put him in the first, but I thought about cornerback.

I thought about wide receiver. I couldn't find the right wide receiver for them at that spot. And I wasn't comfortable with cornerback. So I went with, frankly, just a really good player who I think can help take some pressure off Kyler Murray. Because I think they need to find, you can find a wide receiver somewhere else, but you really need to take some pressure off Kyla Murray. I just think it's the more you ask of them, I think the less you're ultimately going to get

from a consistency basis. Yeah. And I think that I agree with you on Booth. I did not include them in my first round either. Durability, that's the main factor there. So looking at who you don't have in this first round mock, there's no Tyler Linderbaum. I'm sad. I'm sad about it, but everyone in mock drafts have yelled at me the whole year for putting him at the back end of the first. But the fact is, he's got sub 32 arms, he's a smaller guy, he's a zone scheme center.

That's a lot of, and you have to have a team that runs zone who's okay with some of the measurables and who runs and who needs center. Like that's really, that's really narrowing the field of teams who are going to draft. to center. I think that type of center. So I wanted to put him in. I mean, I think he's a top 10 to 12 talent in this year's draft. I just had a hard time finding a place for it. Yep. And that's the struggle with him. And he did work out actually this week, was finally able to getting back from, what was the foot or the ankle. And he looked good. He had a sub five second 40-yard dash. It was 32 in the vert, 7-1-4 in the three cones. So just tremendous numbers, which...

Really good numbers. Which expected. I mean, the tape shows a really good athlete. It's just, when you're facing a defensive lineman, that's got 34-inch arms. You know, it's just, it's a matter of physics, you know, it's just, it could be tough against Sennephal interior pass rush. We know what he could do as a mover, as a finisher on the run game. So it'll be interesting.

I, in my mock, I still got him, but I'm keeping him at 31. I know the Bengals have made some additions, but they can still move some guys to guard. And I don't, I'm still going to keep him there at 31, but I would not be surprised at all if it ends up like you have it and he falls out of the first round. So I wanted to do that, Dane. I just thought that they'd pull a little C.Y.A.

on Jackson Carman. I'm not sold on Jackson Carmen. I think Harris could obviously slide to a guard position. They have, who was the other one they added? No, who was the other guard that they added? Oh, Alex Kappa. Yeah, Alex Kappa. So I just thought, I'm just not 100% sold that they're going to quit on Jackson Karmin.

Sure. Or that they're going to have Karras not play the center position. So I am getting away from that. Yeah, and I think that makes sense. Last pick here in the first round, the Detroit Lions going with a quarterback, Matt Corral. I'm not surprised you have a quarterback. quarterback going at 32. I am a little surprised it's Corral.

Why did you go with the Ole Miss quarterback here? Well, I feel like Desmer Ritter might be the better fit. I also think the Lions could try to trade up, but I went with my evaluation. I've got Corral as the better football player. And I think that when you watch the tape, you can, Ritter's going to check a lot of intangible boxes. But Ritter does have some inconsistencies from a placement and accuracy standpoint

that don't really make sense to me, considering his mechanics are pretty good and his footwork's pretty good. I think the guy who is the natural playmaker and play extender is more Matt Corral. I think he gives you a chance to run a variety of different types of offenses because of his ball handling and quick release

or passing schemes, I should say. So I just went with a guy that I had rated higher. That was pretty much all. And that's the reason I went with Corral. The traits would tell you Ritter, but I just think that the better quarterback talent by a little bit as Corral, that was the only reason. Yep, I totally get that.

All right, so make sure you check out Lance's Mock. Go to NFL.com, find it, and find the rest of those picks. Before we hop off here, I did want to touch a little bit on some of those bargain bins I was talking about. I think that's, you know, one of the, maybe this is low-hanging fruit, speaking of Linderbaum. But if one of these teams really likes Linderbom and they decide not to go that direction in the first round, which several teams, that's the direction they will probably go.

Cam Juergens is the guy on day two that I think there's a lot of similarities in terms of their movements, in terms of the play personality. But here's the thing with Jurgens is he has, his arms are two inches longer. And he's also a heavier athlete. by close to 10 pounds.

So it's something that is, you know, is he the better player right now? No, no. Tyrol Lindelbaum is the better player. But if you're looking for that similar style, and Juergens does have upside, he's a guy that started playing the center position three years ago. He was number 49 overall in my top 100. That's in the draft guide. I still think there's a good chance he goes day two, or excuse me, second round.

So if you like Tyler Lindelbaum and you don't get him in the first, looking at, and let's just say Linderbom goes 31 or 34 or, you know, we're in that range so he's not falling to the 40s or anything like that. If you're picking in the 40s or the 50s and you're looking for that type of center, Cam Juergens

is going to be on your radar. Yeah, I like it. I'm not as high on Jurgens as most others are. I'm probably low man. A lot of people like Jurgens more. I like Linderbom more, but that's not what we're talking about here. And you are right. The length, the testing,

because he tested really well too. He's a good athlete. And the size, he's a bigger, longer version of Linderbaum. I don't think he's as talented, but he is athletic. And I can completely see people

passing on one guy in the first to draft another guy on day two. What about this one? What if you like Trayvon Walker in the first? But, okay, so by your guys, I think Trayvon goes early. But let's just say Trayvon doesn't go first,

but there's Detroit with the second pick. What about Detroit deciding maybe Enigbari in the third round instead of the first as a big, strong, long-arm, physical defender that you try to coach up as a rusher off the edge? A discount version of Trayvon Walker. Yeah, obviously doesn't have the same Twitch or same. Not the same athlete. Right, exactly. But in terms of body type, he has over 34-inch arms.

It was interesting because I'm Aibari was 258 at the combine, but he was 271 at the pro day. He also ran a little bit slower at the pro day. But still, you know, he's a guy that, but he's got some explosion to him. He was saying 36 and a half in the vert. So, I mean, that's nothing to scoff at for a guy that's that size. And I think that's, again, we're talking about a third round. rounder for a reason. So, you know, Travon Walker's going to be a top 10 pick. Anagbari's probably going to be a third round pick. I think that that matches up in terms of

a lot of things you're looking for. And Enigbari, you know, has better production. You know, he has at least seven sacks each of the last three years. And he's still a relatively young player, just turned 22 years old. So it's not a case of, you know, a guy that's been in college for five years. So I like that one. Here's one for you. So we talked about Jamison, Williams and the ACL, and if you're scared off by that ACL, at least at the price of a mid-first-round pick, you know, say, okay, we're not going to draft, but you want that style of receiver. So it's not like you're just going to Traylon Burks or one of these other guys. If you wait, I think that Danny Gray at a VesmU could be a guy that interests you later on,

is that style of player. Is he on the same level as Jameson? No, not even close. Not few athletes are. But Danny Gray is a legit low 4-3 type of speed guy. And I've said this before, but if there's a darnel Mooney in this draft, I think it will be Danny Gray, a guy that, what I loved about Gray's tape is he makes plays at every level of the field,

where he's not just a take off the top of the defense type of guy. He can take short passes and give you that yak. He can work the intermediate side of the field. He can work over top secondary and win deep. Is he the best finisher? No, too many drops. You know, is he as a route runner? Is he polished?

Not quite. He's getting there. But again, we're talking about probably an early fourth round pick, maybe late third with Danny Gray. So, you know, he's going to have his warts compared to a Jameson Williams. But if you're looking for that style of player, I think it matches up. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's a really good one.

And that's one that with his speed and with his fluidity, because he's a very fluid athlete. As a matter of fact, I think he's less linear than Jameson Williams. I think he has a guy that he's a guy that can run maybe a little bit more exotic route tree for you than a James would. So I think that's a pretty good one there. Danny Gray is a guy who I think goes, my guess is early day three, somewhere in the fourth round, is where I've got him projected right now. You're pretty good at this day.

That's a pretty good one. I can see Danny Gray going in the fourth round. I think he's a fourth round type wide receiver. And yeah, that's not a bad one. I was looking at running backs to see if I could hit you with one. Okay. You know, there is. I've got one running back.

Okay, go ahead. All right. Two SEC backs. So say you really want that change of pace guy That you could line up out wide That you can You know use in different ways But you don't want to pay that

Or let's say you really want James Cook And you're sitting in mid-fourth round Oh I'm looking I'm digging around here Okay To see if I can find You really want James Cook But say he goes off the board

Five picks before you Your heart broken Because that's a style of back that you wanted Just wait one more more round and take... Do you go to Missouri? That's exactly it. Tyler Beatty at Missouri, who is probably going to go fifth or six round and line him up out why he can do that. He's also going to, you know, he can take a, you know, not a bell cow guy,

but he can take his share of the handoffs and work the middle of the field. He can work outside. I think James Cook is the better player. But again, if I just miss out on James Cook, I feel pretty good. about plan B and Tyler Bady a round or two later? I swear to you, this is no lie. I've got James Cook with a 6.15 grade, which is high-end backup low-end starter. Basically, he's a specialty player, like you said.

Right. And I've got round projection on him third. Beatty, I've got a 6.14, which is basically the same grade, and I've got a round projection of fifth round on him. There you go. So I've got him going into fifth, but I think as a player, I think he's pretty close to being on the same level as James Cook as an overall player. Cook's a little more explosive.

But Bady actually, now that I say that, when Bady catches it in space, Zoom, he's gone. Like that dude can go. Yeah, he can't. Absolutely. And so, again, that's why I would be bummed to miss out on James Cook, but I feel pretty good about that plan B. And again, it's probably a round later that I could get him and still feel pretty good about that. So I do like that one. One of my favorites at tight end, too, is, so Greg Dolchich, one of the best tight ends in this class.

You know, he's probably going to go somewhere on day two. Let's say you just miss out on him. Who's a guy that you could wait? Let's say later rounds and still feel good about that. Same type? Yeah, similar type of guy. Hold on. And this is a little bit off the radar guy.

A non-combine guy. A non-combine guy. Yeah, a little off the radar. Ooh, wow. A non-combin guy. by guy. So we're looking at that long, linear guy with speed. And if that's what you're going for, you wouldn't say, I don't think you'd say it's Lucas Krull. No, no. And it's not going to be Amari Rogers, the quarterback turn wide receiver from Ohio, non-combine guy. There were a lot of

combine guys. I don't have one. Let's see, Curtis Hodges, Garrett, Garrett Prince. That's it. UAB. You got it. Yeah, Garrett Prince straight down the field. Yeah, he can win the seam. Size-wise, they're pretty similar. I mean, 6-4-2-40s. Did you see what he ran? He ran a 476. Do you see that on tape?

Well, I talked to Garrett after his pro day, and he's hurt, and he's like, I shouldn't have run. He's like, there's no way I should have ran. No way he's up 47. He's way faster than that. Exactly. And he told me that he originally, they planned on him running again. But he said by the time, I think it's his hammy, by the time his hamstrings back and healthy, like, because he actually, I think he heard it during shrine practice.

And he just tweaked it a little bit. And then he started training for like the 40 and all that. And he tweaked it again. So he, instead of trying to rush back and run a 40, another 40 yard dash, he's just, he's not going to run. He's going to sit on that 476, which kills him. him because he knows he's a 4-6 guy at the very least. And so I think that Garrett Prince, who I've got, I think, like in the sixth round in that range,

there's a lot of similarities. Again, discount version of what a lot of things that Greg Dolchik can offer. Yeah, I was a big fan of his early in the process, but I don't think he's at a great draft season. And so I've steadily moved his rating down. But that's good information to get from you. Or Prince. No, no, no, no, no, no. Because Prince is basically just a vertical guy.

Like he is extremely raw. But his explosiveness on tape is, it's impressive. Like he has the ability to really, really threaten the seam. So I think he is, I think that's a great call. I think there's a good chance Garrett Prince goes undrafted because of his 4-7. Four, he's not a blocker at all. And if you're going to be a pass-catching wide receiver, you need to be faster than the 4-7. And he is very raw and developmental.

So I could see him going on drafted. That's a good call because that is a guy that has third level tied in. Like there's only a few of those guys in this year's draft and he would definitely be one of them. What about one? I've got one for you at running back real quick. How about instead of Zemir White, I'm going to go Zekwondre White, who is another explosive five-star caliber athlete. big like Zemir White. He's got some power.

Upright. They've got some similarities there. But he is that same type of explosive back, but he's not as polished as Zemir White is. And I mean, yeah, I think Zemir you're going to get on day two. I think Ziquandre is going to fall to the fifth, maybe sixth round, actually is where I could see him going. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he fell to the seventh just because there's so many running backs.

And it's crazy how many running backs there are. And everyone's going to have a different, you know, what they prefer and what they like. And so, yeah, it's really hard to stack these running backs. But, yeah, I think that one makes sense. Yeah, two upright backs that they, when they're out in space, they can move. I mean, they, especially with Zemir White, if it were for those two ACL injuries, I think we'd be talking about him maybe a little bit more. I think the only big difference between the two is, you know, white,

gives you a little more make you miss because he's so bouncy with the way he moves, where Samir whites more, you know, pound it, pound it. He's just going to go forward with speed and toughness. But I think body type-wise, that makes sense.

I think with, you know, the discount that you're talking about, I think that makes a ton of sense. Obviously, you know, honestly, the running style, Dane is actually more like Kenneth Walker, where you have no idea which direction he's actually going to go. Kenneth Walker, I don't care where you are supposed to block it.

He might stay in that cap, but there's a pretty good chance that he's not going to stay in that gap. And actually, that's what it feels like watching Zekwondri White as well. Yeah. Walker, I think, just has better instincts when it comes to that. Like, more times than not, he's making the right decision by the, you know, with whatever he ends up doing. Because he just has a great feel for, all right, what's the best chance of success here?

I've got two more, and then we'll go here. George Carloftus, who's going to go somewhere in the mid-first, if you miss out on him, but really like what he offers, and say you wait till day two, Josh Pascall from Kentucky. That was the same one I was going to do. There you go. That's a great one. Yes, that's 100% the one I was going to do.

Well, I mean, when you compare them, I think the only difference is really, when you're just talking about their testing numbers and their measurables, Carlottis is like an inch taller. And that's about it. Like everything else is very, it lines up very similar with how they test. They both ran 477 in the 40-yard dash. They're, you know, size-wise, length-wise, neither are long-armed guys.

They're just, you know, both a hair under 33 inches. You know, their verticals are similar. Neither ran the three-cone, probably for a reason. So I think if you don't get Carloptis, but that's a style of player that you want, Josh Pascoll could be that guy second or third round. Now, are you playing him at, are you playing four, three, and do you think he could play three, four, five technique? Because I tell you where I could see this going in a slightly different direction.

Because once again, I came up with that same thing. And their play demeanor, their strength, their toughness, exactly the same. Yes. I think the one thing that could be different is when you look at the lower, you look at the lower body of Pascoe and you look at how Pascal plays, I can envision a world where he gains 20 pounds and becomes a three technique where I could also envision a world where Carl Loftus loses about five pounds and is an every down stand. And he did it plenty of Purdue already, is a stand-up three-four outside linebacker.

So that's the one difference is I could see one guy transitioning down to a three technique where the other guy is more likely to stay four-three-end or three-four outside backer. Yep, that makes total sense. All right, last one for you. Kyle Hamilton, a little bit of a unique dude. So it's kind of weird. Tyson Anderson? No, late rounds. Late rounds run drafted.

This is a non-combine guy. Okay, what about, it was Corker a combine guy? Yeah, he was. Okay. Similar body types, almost identical body types. So it's rare. I mean, this is the biggest draft geek thing that we've ever done. I know.

It's great. I could do this forever. like we're going after okay no go into 300s go into your 300 players okay let me see all right let's see um what about um how tall is 6 4 over 6 4 and over 220 turner yale's not that big let's see he's a combine guy also over 6 4 it's not read blank and shit um he wasn't that tall this guy's over 6-4? He was in Mobile. You might have him at linebacker.

Oh, Wanyet. Nope. And it's not Tareke Carpenter. Uh-uh. Oh, no, no, it is Tareke Carpenter, I bet. Mm-mm. That's not, nope.

So that makes sense. It's not, because Tariq Carpenter, you're sure it's not Tareke Carpenter. No, he, Taree Carpenter is my highest-grade, it's non-combine safety, but. I've got them a line. I've got them align. By the way, I'm projecting him linebacker.

Well, 6.3.2.30, yeah. Yeah. And then Wanye. So it's not Wanye. Uh-uh. Golly. I'm looking over this. It's somebody with some matchion. Let's see. Where are we going for the Mac? Did you write somebody up that I've got to write up now, and I didn't write this player up? He was a senior ball guy.

All right. You got to tell me who? Sterling Weatherford, Miami of Ohio. Ah, yes. So I have him, I think, at Will Linebacker, I think. Okay. Yeah. And some teams do, absolutely.

Sterling Weatherford. So Kyle Hamilton, 604.1, 220, Weatherford, 6040, 224. I mean, almost identical size. They both ran identical 459s in the 40-yard dash. They're three cones, almost identical. Kyle Hamilton, 690, Weatherford, 693. They're short shuttles, a tenth of a second, off. Weatherford was 433, Hamilton 432. Their jumps were similar. Weatherford was 36, Hamilton was 38.

So across the board, they're very similar athletes. And we're talking about Kyle Hamilton, who will be a first round pick somewhere probably I would guess in the early teens. And certainly Weatherford, who's not a guarantee to be drafted. And a big part of that is where you play them. So it's interesting how similar they tested and the body types and the measurables, but how different we look at them. And obviously the tape is very different. But it is interesting when you match them up just on those raw numbers. Yeah, I just didn't think he was, for me, I just didn't love the player.

But from a body type standpoint, you know, it's interesting because I had already plugged him in a linebacker. And that's actually the problem some people have. I did NFL Network hit with Mark Ross, formerly of the Giants. And I really love Mark. And he said, you know, his problem is he's having the Isaiah Simmons issue with Hamilton. Is he a safety or is he a linebacker? When you have that size, that's going to be the problem. And you've got to be something.

You can't just be a jack of all trades in the NFL. You've got to be good at something. Right. All right. That'll do it for us today. This is a fun episode. I hope you guys enjoyed it as well. subscribe. Please review. We really do appreciate it. Make sure you're reading

Lance's work at NFL.com. Check out as a new mock draft. That's up right now. Make sure you subscribe to the athletic. You can get my draft guide, get the beast. That is out and available for all subscribers. I promise you will not be disappointed by that. And we've got a few more weeks here. We're closing in on the draft. So we've got a few more things that we need to talk about over these next few weeks. And thanks for listening. Thanks for reviewing. We'll talk to you next week. This was the athletic football show.