The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Brugler & Zierlein: Smoke screens ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft + power ranking each positional group

Episode Date: April 20, 2022

Dane Brugler and NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein examine smoke screens in the news leading up to the NFL Draft. Do front offices create these bluffs to mislead other teams? Or is it just a creation of guesswork? They weigh in on what’s deception vs. reality and discuss how much of an impact these rumors could have on the draft. They wrap by power ranking the position groups of this year’s class.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome back. I'm Dane Brugler. Joined as always with NFL.com's Lance Zerline. This is the athletic football show. We're away from the draft. And I think a lot of people are ready for the draft to be here. We're ready for it to start. I think that's how Lance and I are thinking right now.

But we're almost there. Today we want to hit on more of some philosophies when it comes to the draft, especially with smoke screens. I also want to talk. a little bit about the best positions this year. We can talk about power ranking those. That should be a good conversation. But, you know, let's start with the concept of smokescreens, Lance. And I want to get your opinion on this basic question. Do you think smoke screens are created by teams as they try to manipulate where others think they will do? Or do you think

that smokescreens happen more out of pure happenstance, where everyone's guessing and, you know, a team's doing their due diligence and all of a sudden, you know, rumors start. So basically are smokescreen is more on purpose or are they a creation of all the guesswork from fans, media, other teams? I think it's a combination of both. And I think my guess is you think the same thing. There are, you know, I think it gets thrown out there far too often by fans who every time we have anything that comes out that's new, closer to the draft.

It's up. It's the season for smoke. It's smoke screen season. And I have a decent feel. I've been doing this long enough. I know when I'm talking to people that I might be getting that from and the ones I mean, most of the people that I talk to, it's not for public consumption anyway. It's for background. So a lot of times, if I've got something that I think is worthy, I'll throw it out there.

If I think it's a rumor, I let people know it's a rumor. but I think what happens is a lot of people will assume anything that comes out now is the smoke screen. People throw it in a general bin, and that's just not accurate. I mean, there are some. Now, Malique Willis at 2 for the Lions. I don't know. That could be a smokescreen. That's something that feels new.

I don't think they like Tibadoe, for example. So I think they would draft Trayvon Walker. They be in the Lions. I feel like it would be a defensive end, but then again, we keep putting quarterback. A lot of us at 32. the Lions because it gives you a five-year commitment. Instead of four, you have the five years to work with. So, you know, you say, okay, well, what if the Lions trade back from two?

Trade from two to, you know, from two to five with the Giants. Well, what if they go from two to seven? Well, then Malik Willis could easily be in play. So maybe it wouldn't be a two. Maybe it'd be at the later one. Maybe they would say, I'm going to draft Malik Willis. I had Rudy, so a guy named Dennis Lindsay, who was the GM of the Utah Jazz and president of the Utah Jazz for years. I knew him when he was with the Houston Rockets with Rudy Tomjanovitch.

And he was in the front office here. And he talked about how Rudy Tomjanovich, who won two world championships with the Rockets, his draft philosophy was if you, and I think this is really the draft philosophy of a lot of NFL people. A lot of us get caught up when I say us, media fans. get caught up and trying to get too picky, like trying to get just the perfect fine amount of, you know, value out of a pick. If you like a player, Brian Billick once said this too.

If you like a player at 13, you better like him at 3. If you like a player at 23, why not like him at 3? Because if you draft a quarterback in the first round, the clock is ticking on your job, period. So why nitpick it? Rudy Tom Donovich once said, if you like a player, take a player. You can't get too caught up in exactly where you're going to draft that player. So if you like Malik Willis, this is true.

If you like Malik Willis in the first round at 32, for example, you can get fired with the 32nd pick the same way you can get fired with the third pick. What's the difference? And the same way is a guy can turn you into a really good team with the third pick versus 32nd pick. Yeah. And it's tough because I think, you know, in a situation like that, it also factors in, you know, who else is going to be available for you?

You know, you try not to get cute, especially when it comes to the quarterback, but the name of the game with the draft is all about value, right? And so if you feel like you could get a certain quarterback at 32 as opposed to two or even trading back from two, then is that the right course of action? Or is it just take the quarterback no matter what and then whatever falls to you at 3rd? 32 falls to you. And so I think there's different lines of thinking there that makes sense. You know, it's, you have to kind of predict how that's all going to work out. But it's, especially this year it's tough because there's draft boards from team to team are always different. We know that. Especially this year, though. Especially this year when we don't have those, you know, quote unquote elite talents at the top, the Jamar Chase's, the Kyle

Pits, the guys that are no-brainers for every single team this year, you know, even though we see Aiden Hutchinson as maybe a no-brainer for every single team, it's not necessarily the case. I mean, Ayn Hutchinson might be the 10th best player for a team. I think that's a realistic, I don't know that, but I do think that's realistic based off of just how some teams view Aiden Hutchinson in this draft. So it's really interesting to see how on the outside we get so locked into, oh, Aidan Hutchinson's locked into the top two picks. Well, I don't, I mean, you know, that's, is it really?

Is that really how the teams view this? And so the smoke screens are interesting because they do make sense from, especially teams picking early because you want to get that, you know, the trade up value. Right. Where like say on the flip side, like last year with the 49ers with the number three pick, there's really no reason for them to create a smoke screen at number three when they traded up to that third spot. we knew Trevor Lawrence is going one.

We knew Zach Wilson's going two. There's really no reason to create a smokescreen about is it Tray Lance or Mac Jones, but I think all of us on the outside were, you know, kind of looking at it like, oh, well, you know, there's all these connections that say Mac Jones. But Tray Lance might be the better fit for what Shanahan wants to do. And, oh, they're visiting with Mac Jones. You know, I think a lot of it can be those of us in the outside looking too much into the breadcrumbs and trying to make connections.

And it's, it does, some of these smokescreens do feel a little fabricated based off of the outside noise, not so much what teams are doing. Yeah. And I think that's the real key. And that's the point I wanted to make is that a lot of times it's your perception that's making it a smokescreen or it's the way the media were run with it. This is also one of my favorite ones too. Oh, they're just saying that a team's just putting that out there so a player will fall to them. A lot of times information that's out there, and it depends on your sources. I trust Dane.

I trust my sources. There are certain people that will get used in the media, and there are others I don't think that will be used in the media. Some of it depends on the scope of your influence, of course, as well. But I used to get some unbelievable information before I started my NFL.com stuff. I mean, I had unbelievable intel, because I had friends with NFL. teams who would just tell me stuff. And they were general managers, but they were guys who just had great info. And I would get unbelievable information that I would have.

It's harder. The higher up you go, it's harder because everyone wants to protect their info. But I will say that I know it's hard to believe, but sometimes teams will give you honest answers. And like when the draft questions come up, when the teams invariably have their draft session with the media and they answer questions, I'm in Houston. So Nick Casario is not going to give you answers. to anything ever.

That's just, I mean, he is a word salad machine. But a lot of times over the years, and you go back and double check what happens versus what they said, there are teams that are just honest about what they think. For example, well, what do you think about, what do you think are the strengths of this year's draft? Tackles, wide receivers, and pass rushers. Well, why would a team tell you what they think they're strong? There are teams who are going to answer questions, honestly, what are your team needs?

everyone assumes that a team is going to lie about what their team needs are, but they generally don't because they think that you can just look at the roster and tell yourself. It doesn't mean that they're telling you who they're going to pick, you know, and that's the worst thing you want to do is let a team know who you want to pick. I think there are teams who are really, are really, really guarded, and those are the ones who are fearful that it's obvious the position they need. If it's obvious a position you need. But then again, you know, Eric DeCosta, we saw just last week where he talked about, hey, you know, we're going to look at offensive tackles.

We're going to look at offensive linemen. Well, why would he come out and say that? That's a smokescreen. No, he's just being honest with you. He's not telling you who they're going to take or when they're going to take them. But he wants to be honest about the direction of the team because, and sometimes they also like getting that messaging out there to agents and the players too. Sometimes that's part of it also. But I'm to the original question, Dane, and I don't know what your thoughts.

are, I think the smokescreen idea from fans gets, I think it's thrown out too often and they give teams too much credit for the smokescreen stuff. And in others, especially when it's early picks, I think are just clearly intended to try and generate trade up interest. That's all it is. And it's pretty transparent a lot of times. Yeah, no doubt. And I think some of it, let me ask you this question.

Do you think that teams will say that, say the Carolina. of Panthers, for example, they've done work with all these quarterbacks, gone to the pro days, gone to the workouts. They've brought these quarterbacks to the facility. Do you think that is, you know, do you think teams will do that just to generate interest, even though they have no intention of drafting a quarterback? Or do you think that, do you think that happens? And do you think Carolina could be doing that as they tried to, or do you think there's genuine interest? there in a quarterback.

I think there was genuine interest, but it could get to a point where once they do all their homework, they're not into it. Maybe they bring another quarterback in just to make sure they've hit all the quarterbacks so in case someone wants to trade up. Because they're a team specifically, you know, you have to really be a critical thinker here to try to analyze what will happen because they're a team that has no second or third round pick. It's also a team that needs to win now.

The idea of Baker Mayfield going there, the guy with NFL experience, and then drafting an offensive lineman, that makes more sense for a win. now type of attitude that a mat rule may have to have if his if his jobs on the line that would make more sense than drafting a developmental quarterback and with the first round and then having no picks in the second and third round. I mean, honestly, that doesn't sound like something that's going to help you win very many games this year. So, you know, you have to work through everything.

Like, so that's why I think sometimes you just have to do your due diligence. I do think there are other times, specifically when it's quarterback, where a team, once it leaked out there, that they're looking at this quarterback because they want to gauge, is there any trade-up interest? It's just this year is probably not a good year to try to trick people because I don't think people value these quarterbacks at that kind of level where they're giving up additional draft capital to get inside the top five picks. I feel like that kind of stuff is smokescreen right now just to see if there's anyone

that will bite. I mean, even if there's no fish, you've got to, even if the fish aren't biting, you got to throw your line in sometime just in case you hook somebody. I want to ask you a question, Dane, about your philosophy. If you were a general manager, because this comes up all the time when fans get pissed off at mock drafts or whatever because they don't understand where we're going with certain things. I think fans need to understand that there are philosophies embedded in certain teams and that are prevalent inside the league. I've been told the Texans might not consider, for example, Ikea Kuanu or Evan Neal,

if they consider them to be guards. Ikea Kuanu, for example. Some teams see him as a guard, more of a guard than a tackle. And the idea is you don't draft guards that early. Some teams believe you simply don't draft guards that early. They don't have the same value. You don't draft running backs, guards, linebackers that early. If you were a general manager, give me an idea of what your job.

general philosophy would be from prioritizing positions in the first round. What would your philosophy be? Are there any hard, fast rules that you would live by? Yeah, that's a good question. I think that above all, the number one priority needs to be just what the pick needs to be who's going to impact my roster the most. And that could be so many different answers. So much depends on the makeup of your roster. It also depends on your coaching staff, you know, depending on what schemes you run and what you're looking to do, you know, it doesn't matter if you really like a certain position if your coach is not going to, you know, highlight that position in the scheme, whether offense or defense, you know, it doesn't really matter. So you have to be, first and foremost,

be on the same page as your coaching staff. And then, you know, it's not, it's less about position and more about impact, I think. You know, if you feel like, okay, say the Dallas Cowboys, for example. You know, they a couple years ago drafted Zeke, you know, what, four overall and five overall, whatever that was. And now it's looking like, I mean, the second contract was worse than the draft pick, I think, in terms of how much they gave Zeke. But the pick was made at that point in time because Tony Romo had a year or two left

and they wanted to go for it. And Romo ended up getting hurt that preseason, Dak Prescott comes in and the rest is history. but, you know, I can understand their thinking in that moment where it's, you know, Tommy Romo looked like he had a year or two, maybe three years left. And, you know, Zeke was a plug and play running back. So you can go for it at that point. Where, you know, there's other, you know, it's so I think it depends on where you are as a franchise in terms of competing. Where, you know, like the Steelers last year, taking a running back, Najee Harris in the first round, Ben Rothesberger looked like he was done after last season, you know, after the 20, 20 season. So drafting a running back, just it looked like you were, you know, just, I get why they did it.

You wanted one more year. You know, you kind of prolonging the inevitable, but it just didn't feel like that was a formula to go win for one year. So drafting a running back at that point, I don't know, just did it make sense to me? Did it? I don't think that was the right decision to make. So I think it depends on where your team is, your roster is in terms of competing, who's going to best impact your team, short term, long term. And I think more, the thing that I think a lot of fans get caught up in is a guy, like James, like, you can't draft him top 15. He's not going to help you the first two months of the year. What about the next four and a half years? You know, like this is, you're drafting not for week one, the season opener.

You're drafting for the next five years. And, you know, you're looking, projecting to the future and all that. And sure, ideally, you'd love your rookie to have mini camp and training camp to develop that chemistry. and go out there and get a head start. But that's just not always the case. So, based on what I just said, does that match up at all with what you think? Or do you have different opinions there? Yeah, no, no, completely.

I think there are some things where, you know, I think, and some of it just goes to, you know, the people who are my mentors in the league and people that I, their philosophy, I've taken a lot of parts of their philosophy. See, I'm a believer that you can find guards and centers, for example. Yeah. But I do think there are special guards like Quentin Nelson. for example, to me as a generational guard, he's a guy who changes the culture of a locker room. Quentin Nelson is a guy that I could see drafted inside the top five because he had rare stuff on

the field, he had rare traits, and he had a rare mindset. So he can change a culture. I think Kenyon Green is a guy that I would consider inside the top 12 picks as a guard because I think he is a body mover. He is big, physical, can play multiple positions. And I just think that in a year where it's not stacked at the top, Kenyon Green is a really good blocker. Like he's just, he blocks well.

He's a very good run blocker. And so I would consider a guard in Kenyon Green higher than maybe some other teams would consider guard. I think, you know, so I do have some rules about, like if you're a zone scheme team, there's only no reason. This is why Linderbom, I think, falls out of the first. Because zone scheme teams, he's a perfect zone scheme fit, and I think he could be a pro bowl player.

But there's a lot of general managers that have a philosophy, we can find guys outside of the first. We can take, instead of Linderbom and this player, we could get, you know, we could get Trent McDuffie and this center in round four who ends up becoming a starter force. So that game is also played. You've got to play this guy and this guy instead of this guy and this guy.

And I think some teams look at that, you know, with like the Jets with Robert Sala and where he comes from and his coaching background in corners. That's why I don't think Soss Gardner is the picket number four. It's just, you know, he, I don't think that they necessarily see the value there. Yeah. And the cover three and quarters is not, they don't value. Right.

You can find guys. I mean, Lovie Smith, for example, trying to put a corner with him. Lovie typically believes that the defensive front creates help for the corners. And so you don't have to have great corners. That's how he was in Chicago. But you look at how Bill Belichick was. Casario, if they think they've got a really good corner, they may pull the trigger. So I'm not sure which philosophy ones out there.

Yeah. By the way, I have heard more and more noise about sauce at number three to Houston being a viable situation. They love Stingley. They've done a lot of work talking to some sources. They've done a tremendous amount of work on Stingley, too. Sauce and Stingley. Those two names and then actually heard some wide receivers as well.

So it's, yeah, Houston's interesting, especially with that 13th pick. Okay, I know you got to go pretty soon here, but before we do, I want to hit on some of these positions real quick. And I want to try to kind of see if we have power ranked these positions in terms of. And it's a hard thing to do here in five minutes, because there's so much conversation in terms of depth in terms of some of these positions be a top heavy. But, I mean, let's just start at the top. It's got to be past rusher at number one, right? And it's not even close. Yeah.

And I don't think it's close. I look at it in three, so I wrote this article, Dane, and I think you have to look at three things. You look at star potential one. Then you look at future starters, like I look at that, you know, round two, round three, day two picks, and then you look at overall depth of the group as a whole. And so when those are the three factors for me, if I introduce that to you as well, there's no question, edge is the position. I don't even think it's close.

Yeah, I agree. And at every point in the draft, I feel like you feel, you know, even in the fourth round, You're going to feel optimistic about the past rushers that are still available for you. So top to bottom, I mean, I agree with that. That makes sense. Now, let's just, and we can do it in tiers too. The top tier is edge rusher. That second tier, this is where it gets interesting.

I think wide receivers in the mix, linebacker is there, tackle, maybe corner. Is there a definitive second position for you in this draft in terms of depth in terms of best position? Yes, and let me explain this. I have to explain how this came about. So I had our research department run the amount of draft picks in the first round over the last five years at every position. The first round, the second third round, and then four through seven. So I look at league averages over a five-year period. And this will surprise you a little bit, but it's completely subjective.

I actually said safety. And here's why. I don't recall, I think this is a year that's very deep for safety. I've seen some real stinker years for safeties in doing this. And so have you. When I look at Lewesine, Nick Cross, Jaquan Brisker, Brian Cook, even guys like Tyson Anderson, Kyle Hamilton, I see a lot of guys who I think are going to become future starters. I know a lot of people like Jailen Petrie a lot. I think that is a really high number of safeties relative to what we usually see in terms of future starters.

So I actually thought safety relative to that position in most years. this is as deep as I remember seeing it for guys who I thought were day one, day two type picks and future starters. And that's a key word what you just said in terms of being relative to past years. Yeah, that makes sense. That's interesting. I mean, I think my vote would go towards wide receiver, even though it is a little top heavy this year. I think there is a drop off after probably somewhere in the third round. But we could see as many as six, seven, eight receivers go first round.

and some of that is with the way the league is trending, but I think part of it is also just the talent. Name your eight. In a perfect scenario, name your eight. I'm assuming it's Christian Watson and John Dotson are the next two in. Yeah, I mean, obviously the two Ohio State guys, Drake London, Jameson, Jameson, Trayland, Burtz, that's five. And then John Dotson, I think can get in there, Christian Watson.

97. 97. And then Sky? Sky Moore or George Pickens. One of those two, I don't think would be a huge surprise. I think Pickens goes I think he goes later than most people think. My guess on Pickens, if I had to guess, Dane,

I think Pickens is somewhere in the 40s and maybe even 50s. I'm not sure. Now, maybe you've talked to teams who have more love for him. I have not talked to people who have as much love for George Pickens. I think where it comes in is he's one of the few

in this class that has true, you know, like X traits. Like he could be, after you get past the first wave, you know, the top tier receivers, he's one of the guys that at least has that ability to be a number one. He shows some of that if he can mature, develop, get past some of the injury stuff. Let's after, after, okay, you have safety, I have receiver.

What about linebacker? Where's linebacker fall for you? See, I've got linebacker really low. Really? See, I got that. I like it. Yeah, see, I've got that third to last. Now I, this caveat also, this is a year where I think actually these positions are not that far.

I think they're actually pretty close. Like, I think tight ends. I've got tight ends next to last because there's no star position. And yet I'll readily tell you this is, why do I hurt the group a little bit with his workout? But I also think that this, and Isaiah lively too, you know, has not worked out well. I think there's some injury stuff with a tight end or two. But I also think this is a deep tight end year.

So it's kind of tough. I think it's a, I think it's, I don't love the wide receiver group as much as other people from a depth standpoint because I'm used to 20 and 21. Incredible years. And like you said, I think it falls off after Tier 1, maybe Tier 1B. But linebackers, I think it's good. I don't think it's great from a depth standpoint. But I'm also not as high on Muma and Anderson as some other people.

And if you are high on them, then it really alters your opinion of the linebacker position. Yeah, and I think that we're going to see maybe double-digit linebackers in the first three rounds. And I think that you know, you get a guy like Malcolm Rodriguez in the 4. or fifth round or... Oh, it's great. I love Malcolm. Right, exactly. I think that it stretches a little bit, so that's why I have it rate a little bit higher.

Well, let me ask you this. What's your last position? I thought this was my last position, and I thought it was actually, it was pretty easy for me to come to it. It was interior defensive line. Yeah. Beside Jordan Davis, Devante White, Travis Jones. Once you get past them, it is like, ooh, man, it gets rough to find an interior

alignment. Yeah, I think Perry and Winfrey gave me a little more optimism with him at the Senior Bowl. But, yeah, I would agree. I think it's hard pressed to feel really optimistic about some of these guys. I think, where did tackle fall for you? Tackles fell about, let's see, my tackle group fell. Let me pull this up. Sorry about the delay here.

It was about in the middle. No, it was not bad. I've got them at number, let's see, I've got an edge safety interior O-line cornerback and an offensive tackle. I just said tackle group features potential star power and Neil and Aquano with both cross and pinning grabbing 6.4 grades for me. I like Raymond okay. Now, like it with most years, Dane, the tackle group falls off quickly. That's like every year it happens.

If you don't get them in the first two rounds, you're in trouble. So I think it's not great, great depth at that position. But I think actually the top end is decent. I think it's decent. Like I'm a bigger fan of Raymond's. But we're also seeing guys, Logan Bruss will go down to guard. Luke Gadeke is going to go from tackle to guard or even tackle to center. So one of the things we're starting to see is interior lines becoming more bolstered

because more and more teams are taking tackles and bumping them in. Yeah, that makes sense. And I'm glad you mentioned interior offensive line too because it's, I think it's a top five position this year. I mean, I think it has to be. I mean, I've got a third. Yeah, I'm an agreement. I'm in agreement. This is a good year for, you know, Tyler Smith, you probably seem as a guard, is my guess.

I mean, long term, I still think he could be a tackle. But, yeah, if you're playing them any time in the next, you know, year or two, you've got to play my guard, I think. So, but, I mean, center, the third round centers this year are awesome. Between, you know, the Chattanooga kid, Luke Fortner, I mean, this center class. Really good center class. Yeah, some team that I really like Zach Tom from Wake Forest. so it's a really good center class. And that's another thing that hurts Linderbaum in this whole thing.

But, man, someone's going to get a steal with Linderbomb in, what, the 30s? How far do you think he falls? Do you think he could fall? I think he could fall. I'd have to see the names of, let's see, another team who needs a center. Did Jets have two picks in the 30s? Yeah, I could see Tyler Linderbaum falling to no later than maybe 38 with the Jets, maybe Seattle at 40.

Yeah. Yeah, it's crazy. Some team's going to get just a tremendous value with them. All right. Well, hey, we got to run a quick episode today. Appreciate Lance from Boston Hotel knocking this out. Shout out to the wife for finishing Boston Marathon. What was the time here?

It was over four hours, but she's got a really bad knee. Like she qualified pre-pandemic and then developed a bone-on-bone knee issue. And I'm like, well, I guess she's done running. And she's like, no, I qualify for Boston back in 20. I will run the marathon. That's awesome. I mean, she finished it up. And I was really, really proud of her, man.

She is a, she's tough. I would have tapped out in mile one. No, that's, you and me know. I know my limitations. Yeah, no kidding. No, good for her. Will not play her red flag. I'm too many injury red flags already.

They're taking me off the board, trust me. That's awesome. That's awesome to me here. Yeah, congrats to her. Like I said, we're a week away for the draft. We'll be back with you next week. Make sure to check out Lance at NFL.com. Check out my work, my draft guy, seven-round mock up at the athletic right now.

Thanks for listening. Thanks for reviewing. We'll talk to you next week. This was the Athletic Football Show.