The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Buccaneers strangeness and the 0-2 desperation index, starring the Bengals and Titans, with Kalyn Kahler

Episode Date: September 22, 2022

The Bengals, Titans and Raiders all made the playoffs last season. They're all 0-2 this season. How desperate should this Sunday feel for those three teams? Plus, where are the Panthers headed. New Athletic national NFL writer Kalyn Kahler joins Robert Mays to break down the 0-2 desperation index, plus more than a little strangeness in Tampa, on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Follow Robert on Twitter: @robertmaysFollow Kalyn on Twitter: @kalynkahlerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Thursday, September 22nd. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, one of our new NFL writers at The Athletic. Kaylon Kailen, thank you very much for doing this. I really appreciate it. Thanks, Robert.

I'm really excited to be here. Excited to be on my first week on the job at the Athletic. It's been fun. And it's a great team, great team of NFL writers. So I'm excited to jump in and start. covering week three here we go we are co-workers again how long are we co-workers before like four months five months yeah like under six months for sure and the one thing i remember that it involved is we ran um walter patens hill together um where he used to train uh where was that arlington heights is arlington

heights yes yeah it was on our uh super bowl road trip i think it was super bowl 50 that year? It was Super Bowl 50, yes. It was the one in San Francisco, in Santa Clara, to be clear, between the Panthers and the Broncos. And I was like brand new in my job.

I was like Peter King's personal assistant slash the site's editorial assistant, but like trying to write whenever I could and driving the van on that trip. And so I think I was in my first year on the job. But yeah, we're colleagues again. Here we are.

I spent, for those people who don't know, I spent like five months at Sports Illustrated in 2015 into 2016. after Grant 1 folded. And Peter called me in November right after the site, stopped operations. I was like, would you like to come work here?

I was like, absolutely I would, because I wouldn't have had a job for the rest of the season. Otherwise did that. I was only supposed to be there until I think the end of the year, but I stayed on through April and into the draft and then had an agonizing decision about whether to stay at Sports Illustrated or go back and work at the ringer

and lost like 10 pounds as I was trying to make that decision because I was just pacing around my apartment every single day. but everything worked out in the end. I am very glad that we're back working together, and I'm really excited to dig into this with you. So we're going to do our normal Thursday show this week. We're going to talk about some of the news that came down this week, some of the other storylines surrounding the league.

We're going to do this every single Thursday with whoever's down to do it. We have a rotating cast and crew on Thursdays this year. Not a ton of news to dig into this week. Nothing like the DAC injury from a week ago. no real big injury news. A couple of things here and there. Willie Gay from the Chiefs got suspended for four games. I don't think we really have to dig into a ton of that.

We're going to talk a lot about the Chief's defense on tomorrow's show with Nate and Deontay. So please come back and check that out. One thing I did want to hit, though, because I think it brings us to a larger conversation, is the Mike Evans suspension. Mike Evan suspended for one game that was upheld by the NFL today after he appealed it. I want to use that as a jumping off point to discuss. let's say broader bucks weirdness. The vibe check about how things are going in Tampa right now,

there's just a lot happening. Bruce Ariens getting into it with Marshawn Latimore on the sideline and being on the sideline as the ex-coach, now member of the front office and some nebulous version, some nebulous role. Tom Brady, a report coming out earlier this week, that he was no longer going to practice on Wednesday. He was going to get a personal day.

I might be getting this wrong, but I think he was still going to be in the facility, being at meetings, all of that, which is very important. But then this week he is practicing on Wednesday. How are you feeling about everything that's happening in Tampa right now? I'm feeling really weird about all of it.

Like, I guess the way I would describe it is I think something is a foot in Tampa with town. But I don't know, I don't know exactly what, but it's like your, you know, your radar, your story radar kind of goes.

off when you're like looking at a team like this. And for a lot of different reasons. Like you mentioned that Wednesday, that report about how he had planned to take every Wednesday as a rest day. I think rap sheet had the original report and Todd Bowles confirmed it on Monday. But he did practice today and that may have something to do with the fact that Mike Evans is suspended and, you know, he's got to get used to some younger receivers where they struggled last week with that.

So that could be why. But I just feel like that everyone kind of excited. that report at face value, but to me, it seemed really weird because we already know he missed a significant portion of training camp, you know, doing whatever it was he was doing. And yeah, on the one hand, he is a player who, with his status, with his experience, with his track record, has earned this veteran rest for sure. Like, no one could argue that he has not earned his way here. But to be, like, not practicing on the same day every week. week, which if you talk to any coach, like Wednesday is one of the most important days of the week.

I mean, it is the most important day of the week for players and coaches in terms of game planning. I mean, it is Tom. Like, does he really need to be doing anything in practice? Probably not compared to other players. But to me, it seemed really weird. Like, I was kind of confused as to why everybody was just like, oh, yeah, he's just not going to be a practice on Wednesday. To me, that seemed like a big thing. And now it seems like he's already kind of walking that back.

So it's even more confusing, like, what is going on here? And I just see a player who, you know, is one foot in, one foot out and is not really committed fully to this season. And, you know, it kind of reminds me of, I don't know if you read the Sean McVeigh profile that ESPN did earlier this summer. And it was essentially about how football basically, like, is Sean McVe's, like, personal tormentor, like, this man. Cannot. Like he's so obsessed with it that it's kind of like driving him crazy. And so I'm like, okay, I see what's going on with Tom now. And I'm like, okay, Tom is like the same person. Like he cannot quit this, even if it may be what he needs. Because if you're making all these concessions, you're missing camp, you're, you want to miss Wednesday practices. Maybe you just shouldn't be playing and continuing your career, but he clearly cannot let it go. So something's weird. Something weird is going. not for sure. I think in some situations there could be some resentment that bubbles up from guys in the locker room. It's like, really, this guy's not going to practice on Wednesday or he's going to take two weeks off from training camp. I do think that situation changes when it's Tom Brady. I'm not sure

there are a lot of guys in the locker room who are like, really? Like, fuck this guy. Seriously, he's not going to play. That's not what I'm concerned about. But this is a team that spent about $240 million in cash this offseason pushing into future years because they're trying to keep their pedal to the floor for 2022. They made a lot of financial concessions and a lot of decisions based on the short-term window. Think about the cascade of signings that happened after Brady announced that he was coming back.

Ryan Jensen was back. Carlton Davis was back. All these things happened because it's like, all right, one last ride. Let's get the band back together. We are all full speed, same direction. This is the group that we've worked with. We know what we're getting into. When that happens in camp, it's like, ah, well, is that really the mind?

mindset anymore. And now the fact that he's going to take a day off every single Wednesday, for a lot of guys, you need the rest day, you're a veteran, I think it makes sense. But what has Tom Brady's superpower been for the last 20 years of him being in the public consciousness? He's maniacal. It's a work ethic thing. It's him being more invested in this than any human being can possibly be invested in it. And the fact that it is, I totally agree with you, this one foot out, one foot in feel. I'm not faulting or criticizing Tom Brady for that. I can understand that there are real pulls happening to him outside of football.

But I do think that at a certain point, it starts to have a tangible effect to what the entire enterprise and the entire organizational feel is about everyone pulling in the same direction for this one last time. Yeah, I totally agree. And I think we probably haven't seen the effects of it yet on the field. But I don't know. Their office has been pretty bad. It's true.

When the win-loss record, we haven't seen it. But in the performance compared to last season, you're right. We have seen a little bit of a difference there. So I think it's definitely something to keep an eye on for sure as this season goes on. And it makes me wonder, I mean, there's all the speculation of, oh, did Bruce Ariens have to move to the front office role, you know, the senior role because Tom was coming back and Tom didn't want to work with him anymore as the head coach. But it also makes me wonder, I mean, Bruce has a representative. of being such a hard ass, would Bruce have allowed Tom to, to have the rest that he wants? Was that part of the negotiation of him coming back? Was that all going on? You know, when Tom retired,

was there, you know, were the bucks coming to him and saying, oh, you know, we'll let you do this. We'll let you do that. If you just come back for one more year, like, here's all the things that you don't have to do anymore. I'd love to know what actually was going on behind the scenes in those conversations. I think we should definitely talk about the fact that the guys are hurt on the offensive line. They're banged up. They got a lot of backups in there. They're playing with receivers that are second, third team guys because the injuries did that position. The buck's offense isn't struggling because Tom Brady's taken day off from practice or Tom Brady went to the Bahamas for 10 days in August. But this is a situation where you think about when it all

starts the cascade, where you have these things start to pile on top of one another and this is how a lost season begins, where you have offensive line injuries piling up, your receiver injuries piling up, combined with the fact that your quarterback who's the most all-in dude who's ever lived, and I think you just see the cracks in the foundation start to form. It's two weeks into the season. They might be fine. But this makes my alarm bells and my spidey sense go off a little bit in a way that just the Bahamas trip didn't, or just some offensive line injuries didn't, or just some Bruce Ariens weirdness didn't.

But when you start to combine it all, it starts to get a little bit itchy. Let's talk about some other precarious. situations throughout the NFL. We're going to dig into some winless teams on today's show. We're going to talk about one game this week between some, a couple teams that we're worried about, a couple teams whose seasons already seem over, and we're not sure what happens from here. I want to start with the Raiders and Titans game.

It's not a game that we're going to get to during our preview show. But these are two O and two teams, and it kind of feels like a loser leaves town match with these two. The team that goes to O in three, their season. is probably over. For the Titans, maybe a little less so because they're playing in the AFC South and who the hell knows how that's going to happen and how that's going to unfold. But these are two teams that probably didn't expect to be owned to based on what they did last

season, expectations coming into the year. How are you feeling about the Raiders and Titans at this stage of things? Well, the first thing I think of when I think of the Raiders is everyone thought the AFC West was going to be this insanely tough division. oh my gosh, it's so difficult. And now we see like half of that division is really, I don't know if it's too early to say they're frauds, you know, but they seem to be frauds so far,

the Raiders and the Broncos. So that's kind of interesting to me because that is not what I expected it to turn out as. You know, and with the Titans, I mean, I expect most teams to get kind of shillacked by the bills this season because they are so dominant and so, so good. But that was kind of a shocking performance by a team that Mike Rable, I think, is one of the best head coaches out there. His teams are usually super disciplined, super sound. He's situationally really good.

You know, it seems like every year he's been able to do something with less, like, you know, coping with injuries, coping with the loss of Derek Henry last year. It seems like he's always been able to really adapt his coaching. for these Titans and they're perennially a threat in the AFC. But this start to this season has looked really concerning for the Titans. I think the Raider could probably be okay. You know, they outplayed the Cardinals on Sunday. You lose on a couple of fluke plays. The Chargers are a very good team.

The offensive line has been a little bit better than I expected them to be. The Cardinals, I mean, obviously the Cardinals pass versus not very good, and they're blitzing constantly. I think that offense will figure it out over time. they all get settled in and start to play together, have those things marinate a little longer than they have. The defense has concerns. Max Crosby is a superstar, but they have one of the lowest pressure rates in the league through two

games. Chandler Jones has not had a huge impact. They don't have a lot of pass rush juice in the middle of that defense. The defense, I think overall over the course of this season is probably going to be below average. And I do think that there's a significant tier drop between what the Chargers and the Chiefs are and what the Raiders and the Broncos are. And that's okay.

That's not the most shocking thing in the world. I think the Raiders will be fine over the course of. of the year, I think the Titans, it's time to start panicking. If you look at what they were on Monday against the bills, Taylor Luan goes down. He's now out for the season. Okay. They might have a bottom three offensive line with him out.

It might be worse than that, honestly. You have a rookie right tackle. Dennis Daly, who is a perennial backup, is now your left tackle. Corey Brewer, their left guard. There was a rep against Greg Rousseau in that game where he just got absolutely worked. That group used to be a strength of this team. What is the best part of what the Titans offense is now? They have the second lowest rushing success rate in the NFL through two games. Only the Bengals, who we will get to, have been worse. So you're starting to run out

of areas where this team has strengths, where they outclass the teams that they're playing against on defense. Elijah Mulden's on IR. Harold Landry's on IR. Chipping away, chipping away, chipping away. And I thought they'd be bad. I didn't think they'd be this bad, but we're trending in a pretty dangerous direction with Tennessee, I think. Were you there? Did you go there for training camp?

I did not go there, no. Okay. I was going to ask you what you thought of them, like preseason if you saw them. I wasn't there either, so I didn't get a chance to look at them. That's one there where it's a little bit far from everything else. And the drive from Nashville to Chicago is always too daunting for me to just tack it on at the end of the trip. Yeah, seven and eight hours.

I was concerned about them coming into the season. And they were always going to take a step back. You trade what I think is your best offensive player. And if you look at what AJ Brown has been for the Eagles, he's a really, really good. He's an important piece. You swap that out for a first round pick that even if you're excited about him long term, you're going to take a small step backward.

The offensive line is an absolute mess. You draft a quarterback in the third round. This was a transition year. And it feels like a transition year. And it feels like it's going to be an even messier one than we might have expected. Yeah, and I think, I mean, as you said earlier, like, if you're a Titans fan, it is kind of panic mode. But I think the good thing is, you know, Rabel is not on the hot seat by any means. You know, this is a transition year, as you mentioned.

So this could just be, you know, a down year for the Titans. But I think their coach is there for the long term. Like, this is your head coach. And so it'll be interesting to see what adjustments he makes this season. Because I do think he's been so good at that in the panic. ass. And I think you're totally right. They miss AJ Brown so much. And the rushing game has been so underperforming, like Derek Henry, 107 yards on 34 carries

in the first two games. That's really surprised me. But, I mean, how do you expect him to do what he does when, as he pointed out, the offensive line is in shambles? You would expect that they move on from Ryan Tanna Hill this off season. They can get out from under the Bud to pre-contract this off season. still eating a decent amount of dead money on both of those. Luan is going to be 32 next year.

They can move on from him for no dead money whatsoever. The youth movement could be coming here. The hard reset could be coming for this team. I understand the moves that they made in the moment last summer. So you look at the reason that Ryan Tanna has a $17.8 million dead money hit next year. They moved a ton of his money into later years when they were creating Capspace last year. They make the Julio Jones trade. They tried to make one more run at it with a group that they had that was one of the most efficient offenses in the league when Arthur Smith was their offensive coordinator over those couple years.

Each individual decision is defensible. But sometimes string just runs out. Sometimes you get to the dead end, you get to the end of the road, and you just didn't get there. And that's kind of what it feels like with this Titans team. And it kind of feels like that big transition is happening next off season. And like you said, Mike Vrable and John Robinson are the guys who are going to oversee that. been tasked with seeing the franchise into whatever the next era ends up looking like, whether that's Malik Willis, whether that's somebody else.

But I do think that reset is coming. The question now becomes, we saw Malik Willis in the fourth quarter pretty early in that game on Monday night. Is there a moment later in the year where they understand the season's over? We have to figure out what we have in him because we have to make a decision this spring. I think that is going to loom sooner rather than later and much sooner than we probably expected. Or most people probably expected it. I thought the Titans would be bad.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, I'm surprised that they are where they are right now. I didn't see that coming in the way that you did. And I think you're right. I think they might get to a point like week 10, maybe a little bit later, where it becomes Malik Willis time. And that could be actually pretty exciting. I mean, that's a reason to watch. And then again, turn it back on, see what they have.

Now you're dropping Malik Wilson to a situation with play with one of the worst offensive lines in the league, potentially, and Nick Wexbrook, Akina, and Kyle Phillips and whoever else they're trotting out at receivers. So the circumstances have changed pretty quickly in terms of how cushy that offense and that huddle are for the Titans. Let's stick in the AFC with another team that has been wildly disappointing over the first two weeks of the season. And that's Indianapolis Colts. I've done plenty of laying into the Colts over the last week or so. I think my Colts frustration was on full. display for anyone who listened to the Sunday night show. What would you say is the most concerning aspect for you for how the Colts have played over the first two weeks?

I would say, I mean, the fact that they were without Michael Pittman and everything just went to absolute shit on that offense is, is concerning because, you know, it was one game and they should be able to sort of adapt to that. And also, I mean, the only thing that went well in that game was the one Jonathan Taylor run where the rest threw the flag thinking he had helmet contact and then had to pull it back when it was just his shoulder. But it was such an angry run. Like that is really the only thing that was going well. And they didn't even their run game on Sunday still wasn't great. They're not using Naim Heinz the way that they want to be in the way that they should be. So I would say I'm most concerned, I think, with the

cast of weapons around Matt Ryan on offense is how I would characterize that, I think, because, you know, you see other teams, as we just, we're just talking about AJ Brown, teams making moves for really talented receivers like that. And the Colts have not done that. Yet they're expecting Matt Ryan to be able to make plays off schedule and to play in that way. but I don't think they have provided him with a supporting cast that he needs. I asked this question to Nate on Sunday night. How many elite players at real difference-making positions do the Colts have?

And I think they have some. You know, like we know what Quentin Nelson is and we can have an argument about whether that's a difference-making position. I think that DeForest Bruckner is a very good player, what they've gotten out of Grover Stewart. They have some pieces. And Quitty Pay has been fine. this year, Stefan Gilmore is a worthwhile gamble at Corner in the contract that they gave him. But we're pretty far removed from the time that this team has collected a lot of their difference makers.

We're not four years removed from that 2018 draft. And Michael Pittman is a good player. And obviously, Jonathan Taylor is a good player. But I just, I look at the way the Colts have built this thing. And I look like you mentioned, the contrast between how. the Colts have gone about this and how a team like Miami or how a team like Philadelphia or some of the other franchises around the league and how aggressive they've been at adding talent. And that's fine if the Colts want to build this way.

I just think you're hamstringing yourself a little bit when you consider how aggressive and how ambitious other teams are in adding star level talent to the rosters that they have. And the Colts waiting out the market and getting Stefan Gilmore at a bargain. All of this makes sense. it feels like Chris Bauer and that group at this stage of the game is like that guy in your fantasy league who just refuses to overpay for anyone and then he gets to the end of the draft in an auction. He just has no good players. He got value on every single guy that he chased, but there are no stars on that team. And I do think that there is hope for the Colts this year. I think that

they'll probably be okay. I think that they'll be competitive in the AFC down the stretch. But I just look at this team and it's just hard not to feel a little bit underwhelmed and when you consider what some of the other rosters in the league look like out there. Yeah, I totally agree. And especially in an NFL where the last Super Bowl champion, the Rams, you know, threw it all out there, put all the cards on the table to build a team that they thought could win in the one, you know, season they needed it to. And there's an argument of whether, you know, is that the right strategy? Do you want to build something that's going to last for several years instead of one season? And obviously it's too early to know if the Rams can repeat or not. But it's so hard to build like a dynasty in today's NFL that I do think the way to win is what we've mentioned.

You know, spending big on Tyreek Hill, on A.J. Brown, on players of that caliber that are really going to elevate your quarterback situation. and particularly in Indianapolis where, you know, it's been a revolving door at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. I mean, that's a seminal moment for this franchise that I think we've all thought it's the quarterback every year that they haven't made the playoffs or that they've underperformed and haven't fulfilled the expectations. And I know you're a big fan of the Colts. You know, you get into the Colts every season.

You want them to do well. Against my better judgment, I get into the Colts every season. But it's like maybe, you know, this year might be the year that we start realizing it's not just the quarterback. Like, maybe that's not the issue here. It could be a combination of a bunch of other things. And I think from the first two games, I mean, Matt Ryan hasn't played great, but he had a bad pick last week at Jacksonville. But I don't know. I think the first two games, you wanted to question a bit more of like it might not be the quarter.

quarterback in Indianapolis. I think the Colts have been framed as this team that not a maybe a quarterback away and maybe overstating it, but that it's a good place for a quarterback to be. And I do think that guys want to play for Frank Reich just because he played the position. He played the position. The offense has been well orchestrated over his time there. They've been able to shuffle between different quarterbacks and have pretty good results. I mean, what they've done is a borderline top-town offense with a new quarterback

every single year. I do think it's impressive. and I do think that Frank Reich is a good offensive coach, and that that will sort itself out over time. But if you look at the supporting cast that Matt Ryan is playing with in Indianapolis right now, Michael Pittman's a really good player. Alec Pierce is a rookie. He struggled in week one, and I think he's going to struggle.

They don't have a real difference maker, a tight end on this roster. The offensive line, which used to be the calling card for this team, got absolutely stumped against the Jaguars last week. And it's not like we couldn't have seen some version of this coming. Their left tackle is a guy who's bouncing around the league for a long time. Their right guard is somebody who has never been a full-time starter in the NFL. So you've got three above-average starters along the offensive line and two potential weak links at a position that's a weak-link system.

So there just aren't that many areas of the roster. You're like, man, the Colts are really stacked there. They're solid but unspectacular in a lot of different places, in my opinion. And I think that that is the same sort of valuation we can give to the Gus Bradley move on defense, which was a solid but unspectacular choice. And he came out this week and said, well, you know, it's early. You know, the guys, they'll start playing faster when they get a better handle on things. The defense is simple, as far as I understand it, which should allow you to play fast. And we have this acclimation period with them every single early part of the season.

And now they're in a two hole. They're playing, they're an 01 and one hole, a winless hole, and they're playing the Chiefs this weekend. More than likely, they're going to 02 and 1. And at a certain point, it's just the frustration starts to build because it feels like they should be better than this. But at a certain point, it makes me want to step back and say, should they really be better than this? Or is this just who they are right now? Yeah, 100%. And I was looking at, since we were talking about, oh, that, you know, paying for a receiver and making

those big moves. I was looking at just kind of the league-wide passing offense stats, and Miami is at the top. I mean, it's only two games, small sample size. It's early, but, you know, Tyreek Hill has made a huge difference there for Tua, a quarterback who there were a lot of questions about him. So obviously, it's not really an apples to apples comparison, because there's more than just Tyreek on that offense and they have a new coach and all that. But that did kind of stick out to me as, you know, an example of what can happen when you do make those moves. And obviously, it's two games. It's week three. It's early. I said this yet last year, last offseason going into the year, and I think probably at times during the season. This is the team it's going to be in a lot of ways because all

these guys are on extensions. Shack Leonard's on an extension. Braden Smith's on an extension. Grover Stewart got his extension. Quentin Nelson's money starts kicking in next year. DeForest Buckner is on a huge contract. Matt Ryan slated to make $35 million. When you're there's cycling between these expensive veteran quarterbacks, you don't have a lot of financial wiggarroom to play around with. So it's not like the 2019 or 2020 version of the Colts where you have these ascending players that are on rookie contracts and what can this eventually be. Their space to work in has become much more constricted.

And I think that the expectations shift as a result of that. And I also think that they deserve some credit for moving on from Carson Wentz at the time that they did. But they also deserve some criticism for wanting to make the Carson Wentz trade in the first place. They traded away a first round pick to go get Carson Wentz. And it's just hard for me to see how this team is notably or significantly better than it has been over the last couple seasons. And I think that we probably should have been able to point that out a little bit sooner. Yeah. And one thing, one other thing that surprises me about Indianapolis is that Jim Ersi, he does seem like the kind of owner who would be pushing for bigger moves, pushing for, you know,

moves like we've mentioned earlier that are going to really elevate your offense. And so I'm a little bit surprised. I mean, and he did come out and really criticize Carson Wentz at the end of last season. So he's pretty vocal. So I'm kind of interested to see, you know, what he's going to say the rest of this season, depending on how it goes and how that will maybe change the way that they spend or kind of look at their moves. they've never been a team that's thrown a lot of cash around. Like, that's never how the Colts have operated. And that's fine.

But if you're going to operate that way, if you're not going to throw a ton of money around, and all the other owners in the league or a huge portion of them are willing to spend like that, then at a certain point you get to a competitive disadvantage. If you're not willing to make those moves and you're just operating in this way, then there are teams that are willing to do everything they can to add talent to the roster, I think that that gap starts to get bigger and bigger, and there's a chance that that's what we're seeing with Indianapolis. He should just sell some of his famous collectible guitars to fundraise,

raise the budget a little bit. Speaking of teams that aren't willing to spend much money, the Cincinnati Bengals, O&2, we've spent a lot of time talking about the Bengals, me and Nate, on the Sunday night show. What are you most concerned with the Bengals at this stage of things? So it's interesting. I actually am not super surprised at their own two because I think they got a lot of breaks last season.

And it's not like we haven't seen them have bad games. I'm reminded of week two at Chicago last season. They lost, I think, by three points, but the offense was really struggling the whole time. So it's not super surprising to me to see kind of the spurts of difficulty that they've been going through. this season. I think the thing that worries me the most is obviously protecting Burrow and the offensive line because it really hasn't improved the way that it should have with the moves that they've made and with the way that last season played out where that was such a

huge problem and, you know, the biggest area of focus that they needed to address. And so I think that's probably the biggest concern if you're thinking about, you know, a position group performance or a unit. I think protecting Burrow is probably at the top of the list there. But actually, Jay Morrison, who covers the Bengals for the athletic, he had a really interesting breakdown of how it was published this week, of how slow of a start they get off to offensively. And he took the first two drives of the Bengals since Burrough has been quarterback

and compared them to, you know, drives 3 through 10 in the same for the rest of the season. And there was a very clear pattern of Burrow really struggling in the first two drives of every game. And that, to me, stood out and was interesting because it led me to kind of think about what that means, which is we know that the first couple drives of the game are scripted, right? Your head coach is able to really script out, or whoever your play caller is, which in the case of Cincinnati, it is Zach Taylor, the head coach. He is both the head coach and the offensive play caller. So in this case, in your first couple drives, all of these plays are scripted.

These should be your best drives because these are the plays that you have picked out that your quarterback is comfortable with that you as the coordinator or head coach have decided and together with your team, you're like, yeah, we love these plays. This is great. So for them to be so underperforming on the first couple drives, to me, that's, makes me think, is it time to talk about maybe handing off, delegating the play calling to somebody else on staff, offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who is very, you know, he's got a lot of experience in the lead. I believe he's only called plays once, the senior bowl. When the Bengals had the

senior bowl, the very first year that they were staff, Zach Taylor delegated for that. But as far as I could tell, it's possible he may have done some preseason playcalling at some point, but as far as I could tell from, you know, Googling around reading what they've said about playcalling, I think Zach has done most of it even in the preseason as well. So this is a question that I think is really fascinating is how head coaches balance offensive playcalling and being a head coach. It obviously can work. We've seen it work a lot.

it also can be really difficult and challenging and overwhelming. And I think of a couple examples from the last year that stand out to me as so far looking like really good decisions to give up that responsibility. First is Nick Siriani with the Eagles. At some point last year, he doesn't even remember when it was. I'm sure he does, but he just doesn't want to say. I'm fairly certain that it was the mini buy that they had after the Thursday night game against the box. is when they made that choice. And that would make sense.

They did kind of a diagnostic on what's working, what's not, what do we need to do on offense. And I think that that's when he ultimately handed it off. And that would make a lot of sense because you've got the extra time in that week. So anyways, he at some point, probably then last season, decided I'm going to hand off offensive play calling to my coordinator because I am not able to communicate the way that I want to. And he talked in June during OTAs about why he made that decision.

And he said it was because he wasn't able to do little things like go talk to a referee during a game about something he saw. Or because there actually are, there's so many moments in a game that we don't even realize from our vantage point that a coach can really either make a suggestion to an official, point out an error to an official. They can really almost like lobby for certain positions that will help them in the game. And if you are so immersed in offensive play calling, that's not going to be top of mind. for you. You're not going to have as much time to be doing that during game. So Siriani made that choice and it looks like a great choice for the Eagles so far. There's a chance that's just really, really good at this. And that's okay. We talked about this coming into the show. It doesn't have to be weird. You don't have to make this weird.

I think with the Bengals specifically, you start running out of reasons why the offense is struggle. Right? Last year, it was the offensive line. It was the personnel. Every single thing they did this offseason would lead you to believe that they thought it was the offensive line personnel. Well, you have better players on the offensive line now.

You have arguably the best past catching group in the entire league. You have a quarterback that we've seen be elite in stretches. So if you're going to try to tweak something here, if you're going to try to inject some life into this, there's really only one answer left. And I think it's totally acceptable because I think, I think that. think that they've run out of gas a little bit here. And I think they need a jumpstart of some kind. And it feels like this might be it.

And there's nothing wrong with that. Because by all accounts, Zach Taylor has done a really good job of setting an organizational culture and really making that a walkroom that guys want to be a part of and really doing a lot of work within the building. And that's fine. That's enough to prove your value. Zach Taylor was never some play calling Wunderkin before he got this job.

And if this was new, if these issues with the offense and structural issues of the offense were new, then I think, oh, we've seen them work through this before. They'll be totally fine. At no point last season when the Bengals were winning games was anyone who was watching this closely saying, man, the Bengals offense is really well designed. They do a great job formationally, game planning, all of this stuff. these concerns about how siloed it was, how predictable it was, these were concerns to date all the way back to last season. So with that being the case, I feel like this is an ongoing issue that maybe deserves some scrutiny. Last year, their offense was built on explosive plays. That's what it was.

It was built on explosive plays that were created in part by the decision-making of their quarterback. Teams this year have done dramatic things to take those explosive plays away. that the numbers today, it's wild. Joe Burrow has 46 dropbacks against cover 2 this year, according to true media. No one else in the league has more than 32 of those. It's 41% of his total dropbacks. He's on pace for 391 dropbacks against cover 2. Last year, Josh Allen led the league at 127 of them. This is, it's insane. It's insane. I was going to ask you. I was like, who was the league leader last year for reference?

Oh, my God. It's in a completely different zip code. And they knew this. If you talked to them coming into the season, they knew this was going to happen. They knew that teams were going to not allow them. If he sees single high, he's taking the one-on-one to Jamar. He did it every single time last year. They knew coming into the year that this is how teams were going to play against them

because of how they got burned down the stretch last season with go balls and being able to take vertical shot. and they still haven't been able to work through it. They are dead last in rushing success rate. They have the fourth most runs in the league. This would natural progression of things. If teams are playing more cover two against you, then you probably have more light boxes. That is correct. They have the fourth most rushing attempts this year into five and six man boxes.

But it's not translating. They have their 30th in rushing success rate on those plays into five and six man boxes. And didn't you feel like we- to change. And like week one, I think I saw this step somewhere. They like 16 of the 18 times they were under center. They ran the ball. And it was just like they were like telegramming exactly what they were going to do.

And again, like, hello, that's a play calling. Hello, paging Zach Taylor. It's time. It's time to give it up. And the other coach I was going to bring up is a really good example of this where it doesn't have to be weird. And someone who absolutely had ever. every right in the world to be the offensive play caller is Brian Daibald with the Giants. Hired to the Giants, first time head coach, hired for his expertise in running that bill's offense,

one of the most exciting offenses in the league with Josh Allen. He delegated the task to Mike Kafka, who is a first time offensive coordinator, first time, full-time play caller. He delegated to him during the entire preseason, and it was kind of up in the air. Was he going to call plays? Was he not? and he decided at the end of the season, you know what? I'm going to let my coordinator do it

because I've now realized that I have other things I need to be doing during the game and I think I trust him and I have confidence in him. So it wasn't weird. It wasn't a thing. Just move on.

Try something new. If it doesn't work, you can always go back. I was looking up some of the numbers on this. So last year, Jamar Chase averaged 12.7 air yards per attempt on throws to him

within the Bengals offense. It's one of the highest rates in the entire league. They're sure it's eight yards. that's what's happening. That is what's happening. As the space to attack down the field becomes more compressed, you have to alter how you're going to play.

And they have not been able to do that. And I think it's time to consider a change. If you look at the Bengals schedule, they are playing on Thursday night next week against the dolphins. Talk about a week four mini buy that the Eagles had last year. Here's your week four mini buy for the Bengals. Coming at the perfect time. This season is not long.

Let's go. I think it's a real thing that they should take into account. Last team, we wanted to dig into here. Carolina Panthers are 0 and 2. So the last two weeks on the preview show, I have, we're doing a bit this year where we're having people make arguments for what the fourth screen on my Sunday ticket should be. Oh, okay.

Nice. The crazier the argument, the more appealing it is to us. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Panthers ones have been completely unhinged. So the Panthers have won. This year, when I. gave people the option for what the fourth screen would be, I did not allow them to choose the Panthers because I can't do it anymore.

You removed it from consideration. The Panthers are in the no-fly zone for at least week three. Maybe they can get back into this. So with some of these other teams, Bengals are O and two, Bengals will probably be fine over the course of the season. They can sort through some of the stuff. The talent is too good. The trajectory of the franchise is just fine.

The Raiders, I think, it hasn't looked great, but it's probably going to look okay moving forward. The Titans, down year, we could have expected them to have a little bit of a down year. We know who's going to be in charge. We know what the next year or two of Tennessee's franchise probably look like. That is not the case with the Panthers. It's often too soon to panic after two games. I don't think it's too soon to panic with Carolina. I think we're firmly in the mode where it's time to wonder what comes next for the Panthers. And I think a messy situation is on the horizon for a bunch of different reasons. Yeah, I totally agree.

I mean, it's not often that a coach gets three. This is his third try at a quarterback, I believe, right? This is, they had Teddy, Sam. Yeah, third, third try. I'd say three and a half times because they traded away a third round pick next year from that. There you go. Yeah, so, I mean, barring, they win every single game from here, out, which is not going to happen. This is certainly the end of Matt Rule because you don't get a

fourth shot. That's just not really how it works. And I know David Tepper is, I kind of read him as being like a pretty impatient owner, somebody who really wants to. You don't think he's changed his mind with the quarterback every six weeks. Right. Right. So, so, I mean, the writing's on the wall here. It's the time is up. The time is up for Matt Rule. And I think, I don't know who we can predict to take that job next year, but it certainly will not be someone from the college ranks. I think, I think that is very clear.

I don't, whoever takes the job is one consideration. We talked about this a little bit earlier today. My concern is about misalignment, organizationally, that is on the horizon. Because you have a general manager there who came in after Matt Rule. and Scott Fitterer. After this goes to hell, does Scott Fitterer stay? Is that in the best interest of the organization, even if some of this and most of this isn't Scott Fitterer's fault?

That is going to be one question that the Panthers have to answer. Another question the Panthers have to answer is, whoever takes over this team, is why don't we have any money and why do we have so few draft picks and why don't we have a quarterback without any of these resources to go chase one? How much cap space do you think the Panthers have right now at this very moment slated to have in $2.2. I'm just kidding. You're like, no, but you're right. It's much worse than that. It's negative $20 million.

Oh, God. They are currently slated to be $20 million over the $223 cap. Terrible. Shack Thompson is making $25 million. Robbie Anderson's cap hit next year is $21.7 million. That comes in just ahead of Keenan Allen, just behind Shaq Barrett, just behind Russell Wilson. That is the 11th highest cap hit among NFL receivers next season. DJ Moore is at 7.

So the Panthers are spending $46 million total on receivers in 2023. And maybe this is a play calling issue. Maybe with better coaching, they'll be fine. Maybe with better quarterback play, they'll be fine. But it just speaks to how difficult whatever process, whatever work, a new coach is going to have to do when they walk in there because so much has been committed to a version of the roster that can't beat the Giants and looks absolutely dead in the water. And that's my concern here.

It's not that Matt Rule is a bad coach and this is going to be a lost season. We already know that. It's the decisions that have already been made and how much they're going to hamstring the next regime that has to come in here and figure out what the hell they're going to do with this team. I think it's really similar to Chicago. It's very similar. Yeah, I mean, it looks exactly like the Chicago cycle, which is no one was ever on the same page for like 10 years. You know, a GM would hire a coach, then the GM's fired, then the coach is fired.

But no one's ever coming in at the same time. And everyone is inheriting the quarterbacks, which is never a situation that you want. and we'll see how it plays out in Chicago with the new head coach and GM inheriting Justin Fields. But, you know, it's, I always think if I'm an owner, what do I do?

Like, do I want to start fresh with both a GM and a head coach? And then, you know, maybe try to like trade away the quarterback that the last GM drafted. You know, Matt Corral, I don't know that he would have any value next year. But like, you know, what are you,

what is the plan? Like is it best to have the QB come in, have your new crew pick the quarterback instead of inheriting the quarterback? I would seem to think that it is. And so, yeah, Carolina is in a tough spot. But if they did keep Scott Federer as GM, at least he's attached to Matt Corral. So that would be a positive. And then, you know, he'll have a say in who the next head coach is. And then maybe it wouldn't be totally, you know, directionless.

he could provide maybe a little bit of stability there. I don't know. It's a really interesting argument. And I think it's one of the reasons why you saw this year in Chicago, Ryan Poles cut like basically everyone that Ryan Pace had picked. Like they went through, I mean, they had the most, what was it, the most waiver claims after a cutdown day of any team. They put in the most claims and they got the most players. and then, you know, like 20% of their roster changed.

So I think that's why you see, like, such a clearing out going on in Chicago is, you know, there was just a stockpile of players that the new regime just does not really want anything to do with. And they're trying to get their cap numbers better. They're trying to get money. They're trying to get better players. It's a very similar situation as Carolina where you enter and you're like, what is going on here? Like, do we have anything? the guys they've committed to in Carolina are younger than some of the more expensive players that

the Bears had, right? Like, Kalil Mack was on the wrong side of 30. Robbie Anderson, they can cut him and incur a $9.8 million dead cat pit. Some of these other guys, like, what do you do with Shaq Thompson? Christian McCaffrey's making what he's making. That's a deal that you're locked into. Taylor Moten's making what he's making. Then there are players here.

And I think that maybe with the right sort of pivot, you could get the most out of some of these expensive pieces because they're still young enough. it's just going to be a tough thing where you walk into a house that's already half built and you're not sure how you're supposed to finish it off or if you're supposed to tear it down. That's the eternal question when you come into a job like this and it just already looks messy and I'm already not envious of the person who has to come in and figure out what the next steps of this should look like. That's all we got. Kaelin really, really appreciate you coming to do this with us. Very excited for you to be here and for you to be a part of what we're doing on the podcast. of things. So thank you very much for the time.

Thanks for having me, Robert. Everybody enjoy week three. All right. That's all we got today, guys. As always, really appreciate you listening. We'll be back today with me and Nate. And then Deante will be joining us a little bit later on our week three preview show. So please come check that out. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform or choice. I very much appreciate that. Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. Ken, what are you working on? What can people read that you're writing right now? Oh, well, I just filed something.

It probably will be up by the time you guys are listening to this about, you know, Nathaniel Hackett's struggles and, you know, how he's not really set up for success. Very similar to what we just talked about with offensive play calling being an interference for a new head coach. So I have something about, Nathaniel Hackett coming up. And then I have a couple features that I'm excited about them working on, but I'm not going to share them here. That is totally fine. any other reporters are listening and going to steal my ideas. No one listens to this podcast. So if you wanted to actually share it, you'd be totally fine.

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