The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Can this season's failed, would-be contenders bounce right back in 2025?

Episode Date: December 11, 2024

In another world, the Week 14 Monday night game between the Bengals and Cowboys could've been a Super Bowl preview. In our world, it was just another game between a couple of teams that won't make the playoffs. Where did this season go so wrong for the Bengals, Cowboys and three other teams—the 49ers, Jets and Dolphins—most of the football world believed could be contenders? And can they turn things around in short order? First, Robert Mays is joined by The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. to discuss the Bengals, then Derrik Klassen hops on to tackle the other four teams on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.RundownCincinnati BengalsDallas CowboysSan Francisco 49ersNew York JetsMiami DolphinsHost: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenWith: Paul Dehner Jr.Executive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Paul on Bluesky: @pauldehnerjr.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Paul on X: @pauldehnerjrTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show, brought to you by Thursday Night Football only on Prime Video. I'm Robert Mays. We've got a fun one for you guys today. A little bit of a through line with the midweek show today. We're doing what is kind of a Monday Night Football recap, but mostly we're using the Monday Night Football game as a jumping off point to start a discussion about some teams that had definitive playoff aspirations heading into 2024, but ultimately fell short and why they fell short and what that means for their long-term outlook. To kick off that conversation, we'd chat. with our Bengals writer at the athletic Paul Danier Jr. About the Monday night game between the Bengals and the Cowboys,

but also about what this season has looked like for Cincinnati and what the big questions are for this team as they head into the off season. After that, Derek Klasson hopped on with me to talk about some of the other teams that are in this situation, the Cowboys, the Niners, the Jets, and the Dolphins. So these five teams who, we all thought were potential, if not contenders, then playoff teams in 2024, but ultimately didn't get there. We talked about why that didn't happen, how much faith we have in their ability to fix these things with the guys in the building. And if not, what sort of changes we need to see from those teams this offseason to get back to where they want to go in 2025.

So very excited to get to that. Let's chat with Paul and Derek. Joining us now, it is our esteemed Bengals writer here at The Athletic. It's Paul Dayner Jr. Paul, how you doing, man? What's up, Robert? How are we doing? Doing okay. You had another appropriate Bengals game last night, is how I'm not.

I'm going to frame this. As we got deeper into the fourth quarter, and it looked like Andre Yoshavos is going to fumble that ball, give it back to the Cowboys in minus territory. I was like, all right, here we go. Another game where Joe Burroughs is going to throw for 370 and three touchdowns. Jamar Chase looks like the best player in the NFL and the Bengals are somehow going to lose. That gets overturned. Then they get a punt blocked.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys touch the punt, give the ball back to the Bengals, and the brakes that we're going against this team essentially all year, they somehow get a couple of them and stumble into a win. So for one of the first times all season, we have Joe Burrow throwing for three whatever multiple scores. Jamar Chase is doing what he's doing, and somehow the Bengals win the game on the other side rather than losing it in absolutely crushing fashion.

Yeah, the Cowboys sort of out-out-badded them. Like this is the bad teams doing bad things to lose games that I've watched all year with this bang. team. The Bengals still did those. Just the Cowboys just dropped the ultimate special teams trump card on top of that. Because you can't tell me after Nick Vigil of all

people, a old Bengal who was Jasoned, and there was a lot of Nick Vigil's still in the league going on this week, blocks the punt, and the Cowboys are set off and we've seen this show before. They're going to go get a couple of first downs. They're going to kick a walk off field

goal. Everything that you just said, it was going to blend perfectly into the Bengals season, except they gave him a gift. And Jamar Chase finishes it off, so you end up. But it's so funny, Robert, every game has felt like what you just said. It's the old tungsten Arm O'Doyle tweet, right, from the angels about Shohei Otani and Mike Trout said all these records and the angels lose six to three. This has been the Bengals season the entire time. They've been that tweet because it's just unbelievable what Burrow and Chase are doing, but they continue to find ways to lose. They kind of did that again last night, but then the Cowboys had a little

bit more lose than they did. Yeah, the Cowboys found more ways to lose, which is impressive, considering the Bengals track record this year. Watching that game, one of the prevailing thoughts I had just the entire night is the movement, Joe Burroughs pocket movement and his playmaking this year has just been on a completely different level than it's ever been. And he's playing the best football of his career. And considering what he's been essentially since year two with the Bengals, that's remarkable. And I'm sitting there watching that game. game and just over and over again, I can't believe this team is just a complete non-factor and completely irrelevant in the back half of this season when you have a quarterback playing like

this. But all the signs about why that's happened were on display yesterday. The Dallas Cowboys with multiple backup offensive linemen yesterday averaged 6.2 yards of carry and finished with a 54% rushing success rate against this Bengals defense. You have backup defensive players in there. Mike Kilton gets burned for another touchdown. It was a perfect Bengals game. until it wasn't. And I want to just talk about how that state of the Bengals leads to the way we should feel about the Bengals as we had not only into the back half of this season, but into this off season. So obviously, the big news that came out yesterday after the game is Joe Burrow, who seems to me, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, to be a guy that doesn't do a lot of stuff

by accident comes out. That's fact. Joe Burrow is he is he doesn't do a lot of talking he talks mostly at the podium and I think that he uses those podium sessions as a way to get out some of the things that he's thinking about and that those post game press conference this year have been interesting just the sense that we're not good enough in certain areas him being very forceful about that and then he comes out last night and says I'm going to find a way or we're going to find a way to bring T. Higgins back as part of this equation and my biggest question about this is team, period. They're going into next off season, and with a couple pretty easy cuts, they can have about $80 million in cap space. More than that. There's more cuts coming than you think, even.

Let's go 90. Let's go 90, like mid-90s. What are they going to do with that? And I've had this question the whole time. Even if you pay Jamar Chase, you're not paying Jamar Chase next year. He's under contract for next year. There's a chance that you can make his cap number go down

in 2025 if you want to. So how are they going to have $95 million in cap space and not bring T. Higgins back? And if they're not going to bring T. Higgins back, then what are they going to do with this money? Well, I've spent the year watching this defense, Robert, and I don't think there is. You could use the whole cap on trying to fix this defense if you wanted to at this point. I mean, there are cornerstones. How about a starter? Right.

Like, they don't have pillars. They don't have cornerstones. They don't have a brick. Which guy on the defense do you think you could rely on to be a quality starter for this team in 2026? I'm telling you, I don't know about next year. I don't know. That's almost impossible to say, Logan Wilson? I mean, and I say that with a full shrug.

I mean, that's probably it. None of your safeties, I mean, rely on for sure. Dax Hill, who tore his ACL and had a position change. and really just look good in like three games there at outside corner. Like that's how dire the personnel situation is there on the defensive side of the ball. Now, the bottom line of this is they have spent draft capital in just massive amounts to offset the fact that they're paying these offensive players, what they knew they're going to pay the offensive players are thinking,

okay, we're having this young, fun, energetic defense, C, chiefs, comma, Kansas City, and we're going to put all this draft capital in it, and that's going to offset it. They use nine top 100 picks over the last three years, and none of them, none of them have really developed into what they hoped they would be anything resembling a true high-end starter, and they can't just go pay for all of those mistakes. You can't microwave that one. I know we talked a lot about what they did in 21 with microwaveing the defense, all the mid-tier free agents. It's like that's a hard microwave because they just have nothing that really those guys have to develop. Inevitably at the end game here, they'll never get where they need to go if they don't get something to happen to turn those young guys into a little bit higher level players.

But everything else, yeah, they need to spend money on their defensive line. They need pass rush. They need run defense help. They need, you could replace all four positions if you wanted to. But they have to do something there. they really can use help at all three levels, but it certainly starts there with where they're at right now defensively. I think that's where you would see maybe some of the biggest investments made.

I mean, they're just awful in the trenches. We brought this up earlier, I think on a show last week, talking about the Bengals. The Bengals this season are number one in the NFL and cap spending on their defensive line. And they have arguably the worst defensive line in the week. That is incredibly hard to do. They, you know, theoretically, like on paper, built it the right way, get a bunch of solid proven vets with a bunch of young high-end draft picks behind them. So you have those guys and eventually the picks will maybe outplay your vets and whatever,

but you have the room is built the right way they spent on it. High draft capital, big amounts of money, stars and solid core guys, glue people. All of that is kind of how you're supposed to financially build it. It's just none of it's developed. None of it's turned in the old guys got old and the young guys didn't develop and that leaves you with a giant big hole in the middle. I agree with you. They've swung and missed on pretty much everything that they've done, whether it's the mid-tier guys they brought back, whether it's the draft picks. So the personnel obviously needs an upgrade at virtually every single level of the defense.

A hard conversation that is kind of a surprising one to have considering where he was a couple years ago, where in your mind does Luana Rumo fit in all of this? Not here. I don't see a path. There is no way that you can go through this season and it be historically bad and not have somebody have to take the fall for that. Because, you know, they had patience with Lou in 2020 because he didn't have enough winning players. They were building it, right? They were finding his vision and they'd had bumps along the road and they stuck with everybody, including Lou. But guess what?

These are all his guys. This is Cincinnati. the coach's scout the coaches pick they have say this isn't somebody from personnel dropped a bunch of guys in my lap and i can't make it work everybody's on board with these players that were all picked nine top 100 picks were under him to develop and lou has done magical things here and that's the hard part of this conversation internally is that everybody loves lou everybody knows what he can do but what he hasn't done is develop all of these young players. And that ends up being when it looks that bad and you're not connecting, a new voice has to come in. You can't just run that back. It's

unfortunately for him. And I would not be stunned at all if he picked up a job immediately. I mean, I mean, as a defensive coordinator, I mean, because we know what he can do. It's just, he's been here six years. Coordinators don't let. There's like, you can kind of on one hand. how many lasts that long. And so I think that's, you know, it's not that he can't do it. It's just that it's stale here, beyond stale. Here's a question that I want to frame carefully because I don't want it to seem like I'm trotting out the same old Bengals conversation. That's not what I'm trying to do. I'm trying to reframe maybe what 20 and 21 were in the broader context of what this team has been over the last decade. There was a moment in the kind of 2013, 2014, 2014, 2015 run. When we're talking

about Darquez Dinarred, you know, Jeremy Hill, Cedricabooey, Jake Fisher, William Jackson, where the lack of scouting resources and the way the Bengals building was set up was framed as a negative thing. They were kind of a talent-free team when Zach Taylor took over, and that's why they needed to microwave the defense with free agents. Do we think that the couple years where they hit on a couple of these guys? And a lot of the hits are top five picks that you better hit on, Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow, those kinds of guys. Are we getting to a place where we actually think, the drafting is a problem for how this building is set up, and the blip actually happened, and the exception happened over those couple years where they hit on a couple guys.

It's possible. I mean, I think that certainly the entire game has changed, and they haven't changed. They still operate the same way, but they will point to, we've done well. I mean, they've had long runs of, I mean, incredible heaters from a drafting perspective under Duke Tobin, since he kind of truly took over in that 9-10 range. I mean, they've had runs and then they've had droughts, which is typical. But you're right. I think if you're not rethinking about it, then there's a problem.

To me, much of this comes back to evaluating and drafting the trenches, offensive line and defensive line. They have pretty consistently done well at skill position drafting. That's fair. They've hit at a very high rate, receiver specifically. They've been very good at drafting receivers and pinpointing them and developing and knowing where to go there. A lot of those positions and even running back. A lot of these positions are further away from the ball you go, the better the Bengals have typically drafted. Jesse Bates was their pick.

Lots of those guys. Look along the offensive line. I dare you. Don't do it actually for your own personal health, Robert. Don't go look at the Bengals' offensive line draft picks over the last decade dating back to Kevin Zitler. it is a truly atrocious run of drafting where nobody has been decent, panned out, become a starter. All across the league, you see guys, you don't have to use top picks on them, and they have, you know, but you don't have to do that.

And guys, they bubble up, they become starters, at least average level. They don't even have that. It has been bad. The one guy they thought maybe they finally figured something out, they drafted Cordell-Volson, well, they just benched him the moment Orlando Brown Jr., back after three years of him playing here. So that was supposed to be the one exception. Maybe they hit with Mims.

But again, freak show talent looks great. I mean, first round pick. Perhaps that's the one feather in their cap right now. But it has been so bad. And you can do some of that defensive line, not so much. But there has been a lot lately where you've been wanting a whole lot more on the defensive line, too. That right there is where the scouting area, what I would focus. And I would say, can we get some new voices or something?

extra happening in here. It's a really good thing to point out because I think they're still paying for some of those mistakes, right? No doubt. Billy Price in 2018, even if you go to the defensive side of the ball, you get Billy Price in 2018. Jackson Carmen in 2021 is a second round pick. Zach Carter hasn't given them much. Cordell Olson, like he's gone. Yeah, it's just, it's that that that run is really tough. So I think that that's the one, that's one of the areas where I'm like, man, is the way that this team does things. The fact that other teams have changed and they have not is that holding them back. The other part of this is financial. And I know that they are willing, they have been willing to go outside of themselves recently in ways they wouldn't

have five, ten years ago because the quarterback is good. Some of the extensions they've handed out, some of the things that they've done in free agency, that does feel new. But the fact that now we have Jamar Chase going into a contract year and that hasn't been resolved. If you look at teams around the league, we have so many examples. It's clear as day, okay? Look at the Eagles and the offense. Those to me are the two perfect examples. Both of those teams have signed their quarterbacks to massive contract extensions. Both of those teams have high-priced number one receivers that they have paid at the top of the market. And both of those teams have given their 1B receivers the contracts that align with being a 1B receiver. So why can't or why aren't the

Bengals willing to do these things that other teams are willing to do to keep a competitive core together. And if they're not willing to do those things, are they ever going to have sustainable, competitive levels with the teams that they have to beat if they want to win championships? So I don't, you know, part of this equation here is the centered around the T. Higgins conversation is that I don't know that they necessarily want to go there with T. Higgins. Availability being a major factor here. Interesting. He has consistently struggled to stay on the field. It happened again this year. It's always been nagging injuries. hamstrings, quad, whatever, every year, you know, I did a whole, I did a four-part series,

so it's deeper than I care to say that I went on this on the T-Jamar situation way back in February. And that was a centerpiece of it. And it really ended up being the fact that his snap counts have never reached anywhere near what you expect out of somebody that you are going to be paying the highest levels. Never. I mean, and when you have that, I think they're reluctant to spend that money as much as they absolutely are in love with T. Higgins when he's playing, the fact that you don't know what you can always rely on, it's not that they wouldn't spend the money there. They clearly need good players. Like, there is almost no position that you wouldn't take if they had a top 10 pick. You know what I mean? Because they just need good players. They don't have

enough blue chip players. They have one in T, but I think they worry about availability when it comes to paying him, or at least that was certainly a big part of the conversation in leading to him not getting the original extension, ending up with the franchise tag and everything that transpired since then. So that leads you to this point in time. Do they feel different about it? Well, he kind of supported their thesis a little bit this year in the fact that he's had to miss a bunch of games and that hurt. So I think that's part of it and what you've also seen from Jamar Chase this year. The way they've now moved him around and he's proven so able to handle that to be this number one that is so hard to track, so hard for people.

So I'm not going to say T. Higgins gravity plays a big role in all of this. But the fact that they're so able to free up Jamar to dominate games with all of the movement and how he's able to do all of that lessens the need for like T. Higgins to be the guy. And I think that that's part of the, all of those kind of combined to say, I don't think that's a thing that they don't think they can do it. I think they look around and say we need to have more of a complete team and burrow and chase and then whatever we can draft, find a mid-tier free agent, whatever put alongside of them, can be more than enough for that offense to still cook and then have a real defense.

I think that's a completely reasonable place to land. Here's my concern with that. How many times over the last couple years have we heard them say, eh, this guy's a good player, but you know what? For X, Y, and Z reasons, we don't feel like we need to pay this guy. We have a succession plan here. The fact that Jermaine Burton has done absolutely nothing for you this year has to make you feel a little bit worse about the idea of, yeah, T. Higgins is good, but do we really want to pay T. Higgins? We just did this with Jesse Bates.

We just did it. And then watching what Jesse Bates is doing in Atlanta as you have failed to replace him, I think that there's a risk in paying guy who has hurt all the time. There is also a risk in paying a good player as he walks out the door when you don't have a reasonable plan to replace that guy. And I shouldn't have confidence in your succession plans based on how the last couple seasons have gone. And that's why I wonder if the conversation, what Joe Burrow hinted at last night, is different now. I think they thought they had more talent on this team. I think they thought they had more maybe even deals that would be coming down the pike with some of these young players that they'd have to do. They clearly don't.

Who are they paying? Who are they paying? They don't have anyone to pay. And so now maybe it's different. And so maybe if Joe's willing to do some kind of restructure, which I think is probably the only way the Bengals are finding a way to do that. And Jamar gets, Lord knows what that number is going to end up being, you know, and how much more they now owe him if they, rather if they would have just done it before the season started. Again, they do this to themselves over and over and over again. I mean, history just repeats itself, right?

So they will have to pay for all of that. but when you like you said they all of a sudden find themselves not having many good players not knowing who they would even have to do a deal with next that does change the conversation for sure but they have to have priority one being that defense if they feel like they can do both they feel like they have enough answers on the defense side of the ball they're able to do it however they want to go forward with that and do t i think that makes the absolute most sense this is a fascinating offseason that the Bengals are about to go through. I mean, it is between Jamar and all the drama that happened with that last year.

The potential now of a Burrow restructure and T now may be staying the defensive thing, whatever, potentially a new coordinator being involved in the defense side of the ball for the first time. Like, there are so many moving pieces and the margin for air is this thin for everybody here because you can waste one of these seasons from Burrow and Chase. that is thin ice. You do it twice and there's big, big problems for everybody to pay for. Marchant for error is the exact right term that I would use. Because when I look at teams around the league and I look at what teams around the league are willing to do, the Eagles can pay Bryce Huff, whatever they're paying Bryce Huff on this contract and we cannot even notice because the Eagles

are willing to move all this money around and spend all of this cash and paper over their mistakes. The Browns can sign whoever they want, despite the Deshawn Watson disaster. because they're willing to throw money around and paper over all of their mistakes. The bills are a team. This Bengals team is going to have to compete against the playoffs every single year. The bills have spent more cash than just about anybody in the league. You look at the way the Niners are trying to navigate their current situation with all the guys that they've had to pay. Your margin for error if you're not willing to throw money around in that way is so incredibly slim

that you need to run hot on virtually everything else, and they haven't run hot on virtually everything else. So I'm just concerned for the next three, four, five years, as we have, teams operating in one way around the league, and we have teams operating like the Bengals, and we have a team or two operating like the Bengals do, are you creating such a huge barrier to competing with the teams around you that you're leaving yourself not enough of a margin for error for you to be consistently competitive? And I am worried about that. You should be because it's who they are as a franchise. I mean, you just look historically when they had Carson Palmer, rookie contract went and they had one of their best teams, right?

One of their best runs. They had AJ Green and Andy Dalton, rookie contract and good drafting went together one of their best runs once they Joe Burrow obviously Jamar Chase rookie contract one of their best runs everything else on the outsides of those sandwiched in between those periods it fell apart because they couldn't find ways to keep it all together they couldn't work the margins well enough they couldn't find those advantages they had to have the big advantage of usually the rookie quarterback and so once it goes away will it be different this time or will they continue to sort of this same trend that they've had over really their modern day iteration since Marvin

Lewis arrived in 2003. And that's, you know, that's something that Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and everybody here has to reckon with. They have to find a way for it to be different. How can it be different this time? They have changed in many ways. And you mentioned them, but there are so many ways here that it is the same. They have to find ways to understand that and look themselves in the mirror a little bit. And I don't know if that's going to happen or not. It's such a great thing to bring up with the rookie quarterback contracts. We did a show on Saturday where we were talking, I was talking about it Spielberg about how are we overrating the importance of rookie contract windows because we have so many

of these teams that are willing to pull levers in order to overcome their financial situation after they pay these guys. But if you're not willing to pull those levers, then you are operating in this binary where we have a window when the quarterback is cheap and the window closes when the quarterback gets expensive. I don't think it's that black and white for most teams around the league now because of the creativity we see in some of these front offices, but with the Bengals specifically, it may be that black and white. And that's awful. Like, that is just such a hard reality to face when you watch

the quarterback playing like this. And you just can't haggle with your best players in the core of your team over and over again. You can't tell T. Higgins, he's not worth that value. You can't tell Jamar Chase, he's not worth that value. You can't tell Joe Burrow, who went down to the last second, He announced his deal the moment that the Chiefs were kicking off on Thursday night to open the season. I mean, all the way to the end, battling it through. It's constantly this battle in paying their best players. And when you do that, it creates dissension. It creates bad vibes.

It kills your chemistry that you spent so much time building here over the time that you were winning. And with so much the reason why you were winning. And so then you end up this and now you've got everybody's requesting trades. Everybody is talking about poor communication with the front office from Jonah Williams to T. Hendrickson to T. Higgins and the Jamar Chase holdout. You can't do that with all of your best players and think everybody underneath them that looks up to them wanting to be the ones getting those deals is like, oh, yeah, this is great. What a great environment. Can't wait for me to be in that spot. Like that filters all the way down.

And that's how you end up with teams that underperform and don't take you to the level that you expect. to be. That stuff matters. Now, was that the reason that they are sitting here today at five and eight and they've found ways to lose every single close game this year? It's not, there are many. And we could, you know, we could be here for many hours and you don't have that kind of time. But let's not pretend that ain't part of it. It certainly is. As you go into this fascinating off season, we've hit a lot of the big bullet points that are going to be worth watching. What are some of the things that are a little bit quieter, a little bit closer to the margins, that somebody in your position is paying attention to that I'm not thinking enough about.

Well, I mean, back to, it's sort of back to a conversation we touched on earlier, and that is the interior of their offensive line is a problem, man. Like, we're going to spend all this time talking about defense. We're talking about T. Higgins. The guard play has been so bad. And Ted Karris got a one-year extension for the season started, and he's been fine. Like, that's okay. But Joe so heavily relies on the anchor.

the interior of that pocket, wanting that solid base in front of him. It's the one thing he hates more than anything is when it comes up to the middle on him. And that's just been happening. It's been turnstiles. And so another offensive line investment needs to be on deck to this offseason. Is Alex Kappa going to stick around or are they going to take the money that they can save by letting him go and try to flip that position? Hard to imagine doing worse. It's been bad there. obviously they benched Cordell Volson. Is Cody Ford an answer? What are we talking about?

Like they need somebody new there. You need a succession plan at the very least at center for whatever Ted Karras is doing. And so, and you're going to need depth for your tackles. You love what you got with Orlando Brown and Maris men going forward for the next couple of years. But the depth behind them continues to be an issue. So again, repeatedly here, the offensive line is something that they're going to need to be investing in. I mean, again, what if we're, what if we're,

we mentioned that they don't need to invest in at this point. Like every single position in players seems like they've been, they're on, they're on deck for either replacement or something needs to happen. And that's, that's what comes of a season like this. You actually have sort of sold me on the idea that it's not that they can't pay T. Higgins with the money that they have or that, oh, you can't spend that much on receivers in a single off season.

It's mostly that if you have to pay T. Higgins, let's say, $25 million a year, whatever the Jalen Waddle, Devante Smith number is. I think that's probably that if I were the fair range, that's exactly what I would be asking for. If you decide that you want to use that $25 million on three other starters, that actually might be what you have to do. And that in and of itself is just such a hard place to land, but I can actually understand the argument for it. You know, again, it's the microwave effect. Give it two $7 million guards and a couple of $7 million defensive tackles. You know how badly they need that?

Assuming those would even pan out, by the way, because they've been trying to do that. And since their good run of free agency, they've had this ugly run of free agency. They've got to be better there, too. You know how low a hit rate that can be. Yeah, you can't build your team like that consistently. You can't build your team like that.

They did it once. You're asking for lightning to strike twice to do it again. And I just think that's going to be really difficult to pull off. If you can on your offensive line, find a way to replicate the cap of Karras move when they first did that, where fresh out of, the gate and free agency. They drop those two guys in there and it really helps solidify everything up front. I mean, that's something they have to be considering doing as well on top of it. So it all

piles up and that's a lot of places to fix. It's inevitably what always makes them better. The end story here is they need to draft well or else they're going to have problems and they haven't drafted well and they have problems. We do a series every offseason when we talk about the most fascinating teams in the league as we approach the offseason. We've done that around the combine every year. I assume that you and I are going to be having this conversation again in about two-ish months. So for now, we're going to put a pin in this, but we will be back soon rather than later having this discussion. Paul Daner Jr. sincerely appreciate the time, sir. We will do this again very soon.

See you, Robert. We're digging to the other teams that disappointed us a little bit this year. But before we do that, we're going to take a quick break. Joining us now, it is my co-host here at the Athletic Football Show. It's Derek, how you doing, man? I'm doing good today. I've done one other midweek show before, but it was. it was not with you. So very fun to do an actual midweek show here in the middle of this season.

I wanted to dig into this and I felt like you were the right person to talk about it with. We've been circling this show and kind of dancing around it here over the last couple weeks and how we want to talk about some of these teams. You know, as the Niners disappoint us and the Cowboys disappoint us, I think I've kind of been saving some of the bullets for this conversation and how we're going to discuss these teams because the individual games don't even matter as much as what this means for the long-term outlook for some of these teams who can. came into the year with real playoff aspirations and fell very far short of those. The way that we're bucketing these teams, we're going to sort of talk about five teams as part of this conversation.

We already talked about the Bengals a lot. We're not going to spend as much time on that just because we dug into it with such depth in such depth with Paul. The four other teams and the Bengals that we're going to discuss on the show, the reason we picked these five teams. These are the five teams that were coming into the season with an over under win total that would have put them over 500. So at least nine and a half wins for all five of these teams. And all of them are going to finish under 500, most likely. They were going to miss the playoffs almost definitely.

So that's how we landed on these five teams specifically. So let's start with the Cincinnati Bengals again. We're not going to dig into this with the level of depth we are with the other teams. I just wanted to ask you, and we're going to kind of do this with three different questions for each team. I want to know what you think led to this. I want to know how much of this do you think is fixable with the guys in the building. And I want to know what really has to change with the Bengals. The first thing with Cincinnati, I think, is just what do you think is at the core of the things that need to be different about this team starting in 2025?

Listen, there are one or two quibbles I could have about the offense. I would still like the offensive line talent to be a little bit better. I would like them to be able to run the ball a little bit more consistently and with a little bit more flexibility. But this is about the defense. The defense doesn't have players. They have their two best players are Trey Hendrickson, who is, awesome. Like there's no caveats or anything there. And then Mike Hilton, who is still good, but probably towards the back half of his career now, he's 30. And he's only a nickel corner and

like it's valuable in this league, but you probably need more pieces than that. He's not the same guy in coverage as he was three years ago. He's just not. And that's okay. 30 year old corners can hit the cliff way faster than you want them to. Exactly. Still a good blitzer, still come up and tackle, but the coverage stuff is not quite what it used to be. And that's really a big problem when they just have not at all been able to reload on this defense at all. Because what was it three years ago when they had kind of that run where they went to the Super Bowl, it was a lot of free agents and stuff that they kind of built this thing with. And then as they were trying to build this team, they tried to rebuild it with a bunch of draft

picks. Their top 100 draft picks in the last three years on defense are Chris Jenkins, McKinley Jackson, Miles Murphy, DJ Turner, Jordan Battle, Dax Hill, Cam Taylor Britt and Zach Carter. None of those players are like above average contributors for you right now. now, and most of them aren't contributors at all. And so that's pretty much all that this comes down to to me is they just do not have talent on that side of the ball. I think it's that simple. And coming into the year, you called this. You called the shot before we even started the season before we even started having this conversation about the Bengals, that they might have the worst run defense in the league.

They are dead last and run defense success rate this season. The Dallas Cowboys ran all over them last night. That would be okay if that was the defined weakness of your defense. They are also 30th in past defense dv.O.A. They are just bad. They are just a bad defense. And when you watch them play, you feel that. I can't remember what moment it was yesterday. There was one run play. I think it was maybe a reverse or a cutback yesterday. And watching them try to react to that and just watching how slow the defense was, watching just the lack of physicality we've seen from them the entire year. You compare the way that these DBs tackle and the way that they play on the perimeter to really good defenses around the league. And there's just such a stark contrast in the level of

physicality and just how this group asserts itself compared to a really good defense. And some of that is talent, but I also just think the feeling of this unit the entire year, there was something missing. And last night was another good example of that. As Joe Burrow throws for 370 and carries this team again, they almost lose in part because the Cowboys ran all over them. So I think that they're going to have a, we talk about this with Paul. They're going to have a ton of resources heading into next off season.

They're probably going to have to spend most of those on defense and what the hit rate looks like on next year's free agent class, I think is ultimately going to be, along with whatever defensive coordinator they potentially bring in if they move on from Luanarumo, that combination of factors is ultimately going to determine how competitive this team can be in 2025. Absolutely. And they don't need to be great. They just need to be not a bottom five defense the way that they were this year.

If they can rebuild it and get to 21st, 22nd, that is enough to where you're giving yourself more room for error where this team is two and seven in one score games this year. If you have a little bit of a better defense, you're probably just not in as many of those one score games or it's easier to be on the other side of it. That's pretty much the difference here. Yeah, it's so hard to waste a season like this from the quarterback. He's playing like an MVP.

It's the best ball he's ever played. Big guy, we mentioned this with Paul. There was so many moments last day where he's navigating around the pocket, stepping up, dropping his arm angle, just doing things that even, I think Joe Burrow has been a top five-ish quarterback for probably the last like three or four years, even if there are some people who have some quibbles with certain elements of his game. Watching him do things he's never done on top of all of the other things he was already great at and have it not matter. That's like a stake in the heart if you were Joe Burrow, but also if

you are anybody who cares about this team. That's why I don't blame him at the very end of that game. I think in the pressure being like, oh, we're getting T. Higgins back. I'll find a way. I get it, man. I get why you feel like you need everybody here for this. Then his house was robbed yesterday. His house was broken into last night after. At least they won the game. Could you imagine if they didn't get that block punt and then he has to wake up and realize that somebody broke into his house last night? What a year for Joe Burrow.

My God. It's one thing after another. Let's get to the other team that played in that game last night. And let's kick this off with the first of those three questions we're going to ask. The Dallas Cowboys fall far short of expectations this year. even if you had some concerns about the roster talent on this team. And I certainly did. You know, they lost guys this offseason.

They didn't really do a great job in replacing them. Again, total lack of aggression and how they added talent this offseason. And those issues, whether it's secondary receiving options, what the front seven was going to look like. I did have concerns about that. But those concerns were more like, eh, maybe this team goes 10 and 7. They fight for a wild card spot. And they bottom out the same way they have in years past. Instead, it goes the other way.

And we're talking about this being a potential team picking in the top 10. So starting this conversation, what do you think is at the root of the disappointment associated with this Cowboys season? The convenient answer is that they've not had their quarterback for a chunk of this season, but this wasn't a very good team even before that. And I think at a certain point in the season, they were three and three maybe. And even by then, we just didn't feel like this was a very good team. Because to me, so I think it is on both sides of the ball.

You had more concerns coming into the season on the defense than I did. I think I had a little bit more faith that Zimmer would be able to piece some of this stuff together. Ultimately, they just do not have the talent up there. It's basically the front seven is Micah Parsons and some guys. And Damarian, Overshone had actually taken a step this year. It's really, really unfortunate that he went down in that game and is going to miss next season probably. Brutal. Yeah. Brutal. Because if you're trying to make a case for, oh, they got a couple pieces, maybe they can build with it. He would have been like the third or fourth name out of your mouth, considering the way he's played recently.

And for him to potentially have a devastating knee injury, a multi-ligament knee injury that's going to knock him out for, I assume, at least half of next season, that is a huge blow for a team that is looking for talented defensive players. And the particular way that he plays, he's other than Parsons, the only dude that just you feel how fast he is out there. And I think that that was really, really important for them.

So, again, it really stinks that he's not going to be able to probably play for next year. And then, you know, the big thing was in previous seasons, it was Parsons and then a bunch of dudes who could really fill in next to him and really do a good job as like secondary pass rushers. They just weren't getting a whole lot of that this year. You know, Marshawn Neeland has had moments, but for the most part hasn't really been that guy. And the interior has not been very good. They've been among the worst in the NFL. So you have all of that. And then offensively, I think I had a lot of faith that DAC and CD would be enough.

but then you just look at the way that this roster is constructed and what they're asking of the quarterback. They have zero way to get explosives outside of we hope that we can find CD and he makes a good play. Like their next best explosive player is Cavante Turpin and like no disrespect to him. But if that's your second best ability to get explosive plays, you're not a good offense. And like they have none of it out of the backfield, no other secondary past catch. Halfway through the season, I'm like banging the table for more Cavante Turpin snaps. If that's if that is the discourse around your offense, you are not. not in a good place. It was clear as day. Even going back to like the Baltimore game early in the

year, it's like, yeah, he's their second most explosive player. He should play more. And the fact that a kind of designated return guy is somebody that is earning more snaps on your team because you're completely devoid of other options. That is a really tough place to be. If only we could have seen that coming based on how they constructed the roster heading into the season. Exactly. Like they just still don't have any other guys. And that's really the biggest issue. And I, and you know, the Kvante Turpent thing was fun two years ago when he was like their fifth most interesting a pass catcher when you still had like Tony Pollard. I think the tight end room was a little bit more solidified because you had Schultz there. It was like it made more sense for him to get these touches. Now that he's bumped up,

like none of it makes sense. And they've just really struggled to replace that spot. Like, you know, I think they felt comfortable that Cooks was going to be a good number two. I think he only continues to kind of take small steps back. He's not like a bad player, but he's probably not good enough to be in that role anymore. And then just none of the guys that they've drafted have really stepped up in that sense. So I think this was just an offense where they had no way to get explosives. And really the floor of the offense was not that good because the run game was not as good as you needed to be. Because I think the tackle play has not been that good. And you obviously don't really have that good of running back talent. So it's just the floor and the ceiling kind of both dropped

much further than I thought for this team. The first place people are going to go with this team is, well, they lost Dak Prescott for half the year. With Dak Prescott on the field this season, this team was 17th and offensive success rate and 23rd in EPA per play. It's just a lot. It's just not good enough. Just period. If you're going to have the highest paid quarterback in the NFL, being a middle of the pack offense in every single metric, it just isn't good enough. So the question now, how much of this stuff is fixable with the guys who are currently in the building in your mind? And I'm talking about purely from a player perspective because I'm operating as though we are going to have a different coaching staff in Dallas. So let's move forward with that assumption.

Let's say you go out and get a new coaching staff this offseason. How much of this stuff is fixable with the current personnel that they're going to be bringing back next year? Defensively, I don't have a lot of faith. They need two free agents and two draft picks to hit immediately for them to, I think, get to, like, above average territory. They're obviously not going to shoot up into the top seven or whatever next year. But they need at least three, four players on that side of the ball. And they already have a good coach on that side of the ball, right? Like we know Mike Zimmer's credential.

So that there's probably not a whole lot better you're going to do than that. It was rough early in the year. I've actually been pretty encouraged by how they played on that side of the ball recently. Obviously, getting Parsons back has been huge. But I do think that they have settled into actually an acceptable level of play on defense, even considering some of the injuries that they've had to suffer through and some of just the inconsistencies that they had over the first half of the year. And this is a little bit closer to what I thought we were going to get coming into the season.

Still not as good as I thought, but it's at least more of Mike's, or piecing things together in a way that I was hoping for. Offensively, I still think when you have Dak Prescott and C.D. Lamb, you're always a little bit closer to being able to fix it than it might seem. Like, this is an offense where I just think the way that it was designed was not very good. Like, they just put way too much on Dak Prescott's shoulders, kind of the way we've talked about with almost like Gino Smith in Seattle, where it's just so much pure past that he has to handle. And he can do it in certain situations, but it's just so hard to live that way when the floor is bad with the run game and you're not getting explosives elsewhere.

The other thing is, too, I think there's a world where you can sell yourself that the offensive line can take a step next year without having to fix anything. Like Tyler Guyton could take a step. Cooper Beebe could be even better. Tyler Smith is a young player who is already really good, but could even continue to ascend. So I do think there is enough here on the offense that it's relatively fixable with this core of players. I 100% agree with everything that you just.

said. I think when you have DAC and CD, you're always probably closer than it seems. I'm really interested in who they're going to hire as their head coach. And if it's an offensive head coach, what is that system going to look like? It's a defensive head coach. If it's a defensive head coach, who are you bringing in with you? The name I keep coming back to, and I don't think he should necessarily be the head coach in Dallas, but this is kind of the filter I'm trying to consider when thinking about this team. What if you bring in next year's Liam Cohen as your offensive coordinator and you have Dak Prescott, C.D. Lamb, that offensive line potentially taking the step that you think that they can take, and you try to go out and get one more pass catcher. Would it be shocking if this was the seventh best offense in the league under that set of circumstances? I don't think so at all.

No, because that's what the offense looked like, you know, a year or two ago, where they had just enough. With a stable system that I hated. And they still managed to do that. Exactly. You don't need everything for this offense to work when you have DAC and CD. You just need a system. enough complimentary pieces outside of those guys. And they just very obviously did not have that this year. So that's the thing. If the offensive coaching gets a little bit better and you add one more guy, which is going to be easy through either the draft or free agency to add one guy who can do something for you, they're probably not far off from being a really competitive offense again. The last piece I would mention, obviously, Zach Martin's out for the year. It sounds like he's going to

mold retirement. Brock Kaufman, who is somebody that the offensive line community and I think the draft community was a little bit more excited about him coming into this. season in terms of like a potential fit at center of Cooper Bibi didn't play there. And I actually think Brock Hoffman's played relatively well for them at right guard with Zach Martin getting hurt. He's an exclusive rights free agent this off season. So they could easily bring him back. The real question, if we're building in some sort of development for Gighton and for

Bibi is what happens at right tackle? Like, Terrence Steele has been, it's been an issue since he came back from injury. And you're paying him a decent amount of money. You could potentially save some if you moved on from him. But the question then becomes, who are you going to play? it right tackle if you move on from Terran Steel. So if the other four spots are still solid enough, I do think that they could live with a group that they have in-house at the offensive line spots next year.

I mean, knowing Jerry, they'll just let Steele walk and draft another one in the first round because that's just the way that they've been doing it for 10 years now, it feels like. The defense, I think, is, I don't think you're wrong and that they need more pieces. I will point out that they've had more defensive injuries than we're probably acknowledging this season that has really hampered them over the course of the year. Sam Williams got hurt during training camp. So as we're thinking about their edge depth specifically and kind of how this defense feels different than some of the units we've seen over the last few years, it felt like they went

four or five guys deep along the edge over the last couple seasons. So you lose Doran's Armstrong and Free Agency. You lose Dante Fowler of Free Agency. The thought is, okay, we still have Micah, we still have DeMarcus Lawrence, we still have Sam Williams. We drafted Marsha Nealon in the second round. Well, you lose Sam Williams before the season. Micah misses a huge chunk of time.

DeMarcos Lawrence is a missed a majority of the season, and Marshaun Eland has been hurt for a good chunk of the year. So I think the guys that they have at that spot specifically, and we'll see what they do with Chauncey Golson. He's a free agent. I actually think he's one of like the few big body players of the front seven that can play against the run. So I actually think the defensive line,

if they add one more interior piece, that becomes a group that, okay, like let's see what we can do with that. linebacker is still a question, and Duran Blan has also been shot for a good chunk of this season. So I think you could actually make a reasonable argument that the defense, when healthy, might actually be closer than you might think, considering the way they played this year. That's a good point specifically with the past structure depth. I still have a lot of issues with the back seven for the most part. Like Kendricks was a huge problem for them this year.

I probably don't think the secondary is as good as maybe some of the name talent suggests. that it might be. But that is a really good point about the pass rushers, that they, you know, we've complained that they haven't had the depth that they've had in recent seasons. They might have been closer to that if they just, all of them didn't get hurt. So that is a good point. And that's how this defense has been built, right? It's to be able to rush the passer.

And it makes up for some of this. And play man. And it makes up for some of what you're doing on the back end. So I think that is a really good point. I do still think, though, you do need to be able to defend the run to get the, you know, the fruits of living that way. So I agree they do need one more defensive tackle. and those are hard to find, so we'll see.

The problem is, if you look at what they've done over the last, like, five years in the draft, we're feeling the misses on guys like Neville Gallimore, Tristan Hill, the fact that Masey Smith just hasn't been good over the last couple years, especially against the run. You feel the fact that that has been, that's continued to be a whole for them. Even a guy like Osseo de Guzua, who's also a free agent this off season, he's been a really good pass rusher for them. He's not built that way. That's not his game.

So there just aren't that many guys in the front seven that are stuck. out enough where this team is able to defend the run. And you've seen that. They've been one of the worst run defenses in the league the entire year. And listen to all the names you just said, Gallimore, Hill, and even also O'Digizua, who is a good player, all of them are guys who just want to get up the field and rush the passenger. And like under Dan Quinn, I understand why they made all of those, all of those moves.

You got to have somebody who can just sit there, 315 pounds, don't move. He's going to hold four hands against him. He's going to be able to defend the run. They just need a guy like that. It was supposed to be Maisie Smith, but to your point. He hasn't quite lived up to that to this point. The hope is, if you look at the way that other teams have built over the last couple years in free agency, there are these guys available.

Like, there are Puna Fords and Sebastian Joseph Days. Those guys are literally free agents this off season. But guys of that archetype, they're available every offseason. You can rebuild that sort of group with workable pieces in a year. So if they make the right moves in free agency and they can somehow get two, three starting caliber players deployed the right way, I do think that they can get back to a decent spot. The big remaining question I have about their free agent plans, about how they're going to

approach this off season is what sort of money is this team going to spend? And that's the thing I keep coming back to. DAC has an astronomical cap hit this off season. I want to say it's like $80 million or something. Let me, let me get the actual number because it's sitting up here. Oh, wait. It's more. It's $90 million.

So DAC has a $90 million cap hit this off season, which is just insane. insane. He can't play on that. Like, there's just no conceivable way that he can play on that. So if they restructure a good chunk of that and they're walking into this offseason with $50, $60 million in cap space, what sort of urgency are we going to see from this organization to get this stuff fixed? Because there hasn't been much of it recently. And if they don't change their mindset on that sort of stuff, why are the results going to be any different if the process doesn't look any different? Listen, there was the point in the way. that Monday night game where they cut to Jerry.

And I think it was after the blocked punt where they ended up, you know, not getting in stuff. He looked, I think, more frustrated than ever. I don't know if that actually means anything for him being more willing to go throw a little bit more money at it, but it has to move the needle just the smidgen. So I don't know. I think it's a good point. If they do what they did last offseason where they don't address enough of their needs, then yeah, they're going to be a seven, eight win team again.

But there is a path for them to actually, like you said, zero. out DAC's contract a little bit and get to a point where they can spend if they're willing to do it. How surprised would you be if the Cowboys were an 11-win team next season with the new regime? Like, if they hire the right coach, I don't think it's that crazy. I really don't. I think among all of these, well, the team are about to talk about, I think you can make the same argument, but I think that there's probably a more pessimism about the Cowboys' short-term future than there is about a team like the Niners. And I would not be surprised if they were back in playoff contention as soon as next year with the right coaching hire and a couple small hits this offseason personnel-wise.

I don't think the gap between them and the best teams in the league is that huge if they get some of that stuff right. Let's get to those San Francisco 49ers. And let's start with that same question. What in your mind is that the root of the problem for a disappointing 49ers season in 2024? I think you could take. So look, the defense has not been what we've been used to the past four years or whatever. they're still an average defense. The offense has not but what we've been used to and what we've seen the last few years

where they're the best in the league. They're still an above average unit. To me, this is just honestly a season from hell for a really good team. And like this happens sometimes. Like you just have injuries across the board. You have Christian McCaffrey, who was your best player, who's not been able to play for a lot of the season. IUC ends up, you know, going out during the season.

You have all of your other guys pretty much on and off the field. Even Trent Williams has been on and off the field this season. you just have so many things that have gone wrong for you. On top of the fact that this team on special teams is the worst in the league by a lot, which is crazy given all of the kicks that like Baltimore has missed, but they are dead last in EPA right now, total EPA in special teams. I said, I had 31st because I had the same stuff. I was going to mention how bad they were.

Whatever it is. 34th or dead last, they have been very bad. They've been horrible. And that is the difference when like they're not getting blown out in these games. They are keeping up in a majority of these games and playing teams really, really well because the offense is above average and the defense is at least average and has some good games. It's just that when you have a couple of these injuries that are taking some of your star players off the field to limit some of your explosives on top of the fact that you are actively hurting yourself by like five, six points a week or whatever it is with the special teams, then yeah, you're probably going to struggle to get a lot of the wins that you want. I mean, the thing is, too, if the Niners had swung one of these close games that they've played, and they are a seven and six team right now, I feel like we would be thinking of them much differently,

but because they are currently sub 500, we think that everything has gone wrong. I just, I still think this is a really good team that just sometimes the ball does not break your way. Sometimes it just, that's how the NFL season goes. I'm with you on a good chunk of this because I think that there have been a lot of signs that they've gotten unlucky on a bunch of different fronts. Injuries being the number one thing. Sometimes you just have a season from hell injury-wise. And if this team didn't have big name offensive players other than Brandon and I, Youke and Christian McCaffrey, all we would be talking about is the fact that Brandon and I, UK and Christian McCaffrey have missed a huge chunk of this season. But because they

still have kiddle, because they still have Debo, I think it's just easier to explain some of that away. But there's a reason that this team and this offense doesn't feel like it has the same amount of venom that it has over the last couple years, it's because you're missing two of the most dynamic offensive players in the NFL from 2023 as part of this equation. So you get those guys back, you get a little bit healthier. I do think that there's a path to them being at least in the same range, like a top five-ish offense again as soon as 2025. Some of the other luck stuff that I think is worth mentioning, 31st and special teams EPA,

they are 27th to go, they are 27th and goal to go touchdown efficiency this. year. They are bottom 10 and Rudzone efficiency this year. So these small things that are sort of indicative of systemic problems with who you are, but also are a little bit luck based. They've had bad breaks and they've had it go the wrong way in so many of these things that I think it's pretty easy to explain how you have arrived at this moment with this team. Exactly. Like it's just, again, I still, when I watch this team and think about what they can and should be if they had a majority of their guys. And I know injuries are going to happen to everybody, but it really has been, like, particularly bad for them. I still think it's a really good team. And I, you know, to be fair,

I do think there are some legitimate issues that you can have. Like, the offensive line this year probably has been worse than it's ever been. And part of that is because they haven't maybe ran the ball as well. So, you know, you get into more pure pass and stuff like that. And so I do think there are a couple of things that you can point to in that sense. But I don't know, man. For the most part, I still think that this is a good team that just too many, weird things have gone wrong that if you were to project them into next year, you just like, it wouldn't make sense to think that those things are going to happen to them again. So it sounds like you think that most of this on offense is fixable with the guys in the building.

You get IUC back next year and you know, see when he starts playing. Hopefully McCaffrey is healthy for a good chunk of next year. You know, those are projections. You know, there's a chance that this is indicative of what's to come with McCaffrey if he's breaking down a little bit. And who knows what Iyuk will look like coming back from an ACL. But even if you get those guys in some form for half the season next year, it's better than what you've dealt with in 2024.

So I think that's fine. On defense, do you think that most of this is fixable with the guys in the building? Or do you think that's where a good majority of the focus needs to be this offseason? I still think because they have a couple of their stars, they probably are closer to being able to fix it. Like Nick Bosa is still playing at a high level. Fred Warner still playing at a high level. And they actually have even hit on some of their young players like Malik Mustafa. think is an impressive player. Renardo Green has been, you know, better than I would have thought for,

I think, a third round rookie corner. So, like, they have some guys here. And so even if those young guys take another step, it's like, okay, we could really, really start to have something here. To me, it's just, I still think they really need to figure out the defensive interior and then maybe get one more guy next to Fred Warner who can give you a little bit more solidified play. Like, I don't think Defondra Campbell has been that great this season, whereas, you know, in previous years, they always had two or three guys that they could go to next to Fred Warner. So I think for most part, you know, they are closer to being able to fix this thing than not. And again, they haven't been bad this year. They just haven't been the top seven unit that we've been used

to. I think that's right. And I think the hits they've had in the defensive secondary, you know, that makes it easy to kind of think about what the succession plan looks like here. Traversus Ward, I believe is going to be a free agent after this year. They have, they have so many guys that they avoid years on their contract. So if you look at a list of free agents, they're not actually on that list. But when you look at the actual table on like a spot track or an over the cap, It's like, oh, that's a void year. He's a free agent. So Charverius Ward's going to be a free agent this year.

But like you said, Rerato Green has been solid. It feels like they can piece that together. Same with, Hufanga's going to be a free agent this year, but it seems like they found enough pieces for the secondary to probably be okay. The thing that I still feel like is missing, not having Drake Greenlaw for a huge chunk of this year,

you could feel that. So one more linebacker, absolutely. And this defensive front just does not have the teeth that it's had in previous years. And when you spend a ton, you know, Javon Hargrave is hurt for a good chunk of the the year, you get nothing from him. It just, that's the fundamental aspect of this team that feels different now than it's felt like over the last two, three, four seasons. So what are you going to do with the resources that you have this offseason? And if you pump enough of those back

into the defensive line, can we get a little bit closer to the type of 49ers defense that we're used to? Exactly. And I think it's almost like the Dallas thing where I think they leaned a little bit too far, particularly this off season into getting a little bit lighter up front. And guys, you can just shoot gaps and go be explosive. And I get why you would want to take the swing on that and see if that can work. But they just have, they just don't have guys who have sand in their pants and can really just sit there and anchor. I mean, think about what, you know, DJ Jones was giving them, you know, a couple of years ago. And he's still been good in Denver. Obviously, losing Eric Armstead has been a little bit of a problem. And he's not been great in Jacksonville, but he was really, really good for this 49ers team. When he was out of field, he was good for this 49ers team last year. Yeah. And so just losing that style of presence on your defensive interior.

you're not replacing them with like bodies, I think that's kind of been the biggest issue for them on defense. I'll be curious with the defensive coordinator looks like next year, because there are guys that even if Nick Sorensen has done a fine job in year one, the guys who are going to be on the market next off season, feel like there are probably going to be some phone calls made, whether it's Robert Sal, Jeff Oldbrick, whoever. So if you could potentially upgrade there,

I would not be surprised that they were looking into that. The other big question for just how this offseason gets handled is, what does the pretty extension look like, but also who do they keep and who do they move on from? If you look at the Niners cap situation right now, it's really interesting. They have $50 million in 2024 cap space based on some of the restructuring that they did this off season. So they're going to carry over most of that into next year. They have $65 million right now in 2025 cap space because of some of the restructures that they've done. So the way that things are pointed, in my opinion, just from the outside looking in, not somebody who's like an expert in the Niners' cap situation.

It seems to me like this team is set up to bring this core of players back in 2025, potentially add a couple short-term pieces in 2025. And then after that year, when you have a purdy extension in the mix, and now you're getting to a place where I believe Kittles is a free agent in 2026, Trent Williams will be 38 and you can reasonably move on from his contract. You can move on from Debo after next year. It seems like the band will be back together in 2025. And then in 2026, you'll have to make some decisions about divergent paths you could take. And you'll have to make those decisions with that purdy contract extension in place in that year and beyond. I was honestly shocked, too, when I looked at how decent, how much caps space they actually had to do some maneuvering this offseason.

And I think they really should take those swings. Like again, this team really is not that far from being back into contention where they're winning 12 or so games again and being in contention for the top NFC seed. And we have to remember to, I know we've gotten so used to the Chiefs just year after year after year just being in the top contention. Most really good teams that have like good, you know, six, seven year runs aren't necessarily at the top of their game for the entirety of that. And so for the Niners to have a year where they step back a little bit after having just

gone to the Super Bowl and having probably a little bit of a hangover from that, it's totally fine. Like, we don't need to panic. This is a good coaching staff. They still have a lot of star players. Just add a couple of things with some of the flexibility. Again, that I wasn't sure that they had and they somehow do. I think this is a team where of all of these teams, I think I have the most faith that they're going to turn this thing around and be just fine. I totally agree. I think that they are much closer to getting back to where they were last year than they are to completely bottoming out. unless Kyle Shanahan just gets traded for no reason this offseason. It's been one of my favorite stories over the last couple weeks.

The comparison that I made is that I don't know if you ever watched Parks and Rec, but there's a storyline on Parks and Rec where Paul Rudd is running for city council against Amy Poller's character. And he asked her, is like, do you just want to drop out of the race? And she's like, why would I do that? And he's like, because I want it. Because I want it. You should give it to me.

I want it. That's how I feel about the Cal Shanahan thing. It's just like, why would we trade? like a top seven head coach to you when we're still in like a real contention window. Well, because we want him. We want him. Why wouldn't you trade him to us? That's how all of this feels to me.

And it doesn't make sense either because to me in a world where you do trade your coach, it's probably the GM having more of the power and then wanting to do something different to coach. He runs the organization. He runs the organization. Like he is the center of this. He would trade himself. I don't get it. Even the last coach we saw traded with Sean Payton.

and Sean Payton will is not the coach of the Saints when he was traded. He was under contract, but he had decided to semi-retire. So I just don't know. I would love for someone to lay out to me. Listen, maybe there's a chance that Kyle Shanhan is unhappy. He's dissatisfied. He wants to move on. But for the reasons that you just said, I can't imagine what those would be.

Sometimes when you have a coach – and I know Sean Payton had a lot of control in New Orleans, but sometimes when you have a coach that maybe he is a little bit upset with the power structure. He doesn't feel like he has enough say. That's where the discontent can kind of start to simmer a little bit. But when you're somebody in Kyle Shanahan's position with a team that is still capable of winning a championship, I just don't understand where the grass would be greener for Kyle Shanahan than it is right now. That's the thing. Where is he going to get traded where he has a better shot at getting to the Super Bowl next season than this 49ers team? Or more autonomy in how the team is built. Right. Like it just, it doesn't make any sort of sense to

So yeah, I feel pretty good about how quickly this Niners team can bounce back. The last thing I'll ask you here, because I'm just treating this as a foregone conclusion based on how he's played and based on how some of this stuff goes. Where are you at on like a, let's call it a Tua-esque Brock Purdy extension when you're looking at actual numbers? It's fine. That's kind of how I feel. Yeah, like he's, I don't know, quarterback 15 or something like that to me. And I think when you get to the point where you know.

know what you're getting out of the coach every single year. And you've, for the most part, done a really good job of getting skill players and being able to reload at those spots. Paying him and making sure that you can be in a position for this next two, three year window where you still have a chance. I think it's totally fine. And that doesn't mean like I think he's, you know, necessarily a top five quarterback the way that his contract might look.

But I think when guys cross a certain threshold, it's fine to pay them. And he probably crosses it. I feel similar about this as to the way I felt. about the Jared Gough contract this offseason. I feel like Jared Gough is more central to, I was going to say the mission of the Detroit Lions, but there aren't stadiums full of people channing Brock Purdy's name right now, the same way there are with Jared Gough. I think it would be a tough sell to the building, to the fan base, to everything you've built

in Detroit to give Gough the middle finger in those discussions. I don't think the dynamics are quite that way with Purdy, but I think that the way Purdy fits into the overall team's success for the Niners is adjacent to the conversation we'd probably be having about Jared Goff. And I really don't have any issue with paying that sort of quarterback, that second tier starting quarterback money. And that's what I would say. It's like the Jared Goff to a kind of area of things is where I would expect Brock Purdy to probably wind up. Yeah. And that's, I mean, that's the caliber of quarterback. He has a guy who is good enough to win when you have enough of the stuff around him. And so long as Kyle Shanhan is there and

does not get traded, then I think they'll be fine. He still has a million dollar cap it in 2025. So it's going to be a little while before the Brock Purdy contract and that extension becomes a team building impediment to you if you're the Niners. It'll probably be when you're turning the page to a different stage of the organization in like 2026 and 2027. That may be complicated. And I'll be curious what that process ultimately looks like. But right now, for this Niners team as we understand it, it probably isn't going to matter. That's the thing. There's a chance that you end up in the Jared Gough-Rams world, where you realize that, you know, this puts a little bit of stress on our organization,

but I think with where you're at now, you don't really have a choice but to pay him. All right, we got two more teams that we want to talk about here. Before that, let's take a quick break. Let's talk about the team that fired the potential 2025 Niners defensive coordinator this year, and that is the New York Jets. In your mind, what is at the real? of the disappointment associated with the 2024 jet season. Oh, man, what isn't? This is of all of the teams we're going to talk about today, this is the only one that I think is like truly an unmitigated disaster.

I just, there's no part of this that I think was even really made a whole lot of sense. And I under so. They're just bad on both sides of the ball. They're just bad or both like that's the, yes, that's the top and bottom of it. And so offensively, I think it's very easy to explain. you bring in 30 like 40 year old Aaron Rogers coming off in Achilles. Well, he wasn't coming off in Achilles initially, but he is this year. And you do even more to make sure that this thing can work.

You draft an offensive lineman. You draft, I think a receiver in the third round in Malachi Quarterly. You draft another running back. I think they even drafted a tight end. And they obviously halfway through the season when they're struggling a little bit, go get his best friend in Devante Adams. Like they've done every single thing to make this offense work. And it still hasn't been good at all.

In fact, it's been one of the worst offenses in the league. And they really haven't, they don't even run like a real offense. I think it's the most frustrating part to me. They just run like Aaron Rogers is going to check into a couple of his favorite plays, and that's it. And that's why this thing has felt so frustrating. Just slot fades over and over and over again. Slot fades and that like smoke route, he loves throwing like attaching to a run call.

That's the whole offense. And it was cool when it worked at its best in Green Bay and they had a little bit more flare to it. It doesn't work so much with what they've got. got going on in New York. So all of that side of the ball has been really frustrating. The defense to me, I think, is more, it's almost sad in a way where this was the best defense in football, maybe last year. Up there with the Browns and the Ravens, those were also really good defenses.

But they were certainly up there. This year, we knew they would take a little bit of a step back, right? Like, lost some of their pass rush, lost a little bit of their edge on the defensive front, but this was still supposed to be a good unit. And they were, they had their moments early on in the season. but once they fired Sala, and once it started to seem like some of these guys were checking out a little bit, and I understand why, like, your season has basically been thrown away, and the offense isn't playing very well, it's very sad because I still think that this could be a good defense, but to watch them play the way that they're playing at now,

it's very frustrating. And again, to me it speaks to the first thing they got rid of on this organization was Robert Sala, who to me was probably the best part of this organization. So it's just, again, unmitigated disaster. I mean, this is the problem, and we talked about it in the moment. You have a defensive coordinator that you really like and that you've promoted him to be your head coach, and now who's running the defense? Who's running the defense that was supposed to be at the core of what made you a relevant team in the AFC? Nobody. And we've seen the results of that. Yeah, it's just no part of, almost no part of what they have done has been to like a, how is this really the best way to operate our franchise? It's been just kind of everything is that.

mostly the whim of Aaron Rogers, but also just kind of like at the whim of anything that they see fit. It just, I've just been frustrated with all of it. We talked about this coming into the year, and I was a little bit worried about what giving Aaron Rogers unchecked say over the offense was ultimately going to look like. And we know what the answer is. It's him just playing his greatest hits, him not wanting to get hit in the pocket, him not wanting to play out plays the same way he didn't want to at the end of his tenure in Green Bay. And so the worst impulses he had during the end in Green Bay, we have seen those again. And the other areas of the offense haven't been able to lift them up. They've been one of the worst running teams in the league.

You know, you watch them. They've had offensive linemen in and out for a good chunk of the year. You know, it's two games here. It's two games there. But you look at the run game infrastructure. And I always go back to like the tight ends. When you watch the tight ends in the run game, what does it look like? And this team is just not built to play that way.

So if Aaron Rogers isn't going to carry you and you can't on the run game essentially at all, you have nowhere to turn. And that's kind of what this offense has felt like this year. And another part of the run game, I think they're almost, you know, kind of hamstrung by the way that Rogers wants to play in that he doesn't want to take these deep under center dropbacks, turn his back to the defense and throw the middle of the field. Okay, well, if the defense never really has to worry about the threat of play action and those areas, it's a little bit easier for linebackers to come up and play the run or your nickel corner or your safety who's rotating down and to not be worried about that.

that stuff. All of that plays into what has gone wrong for this team, this offensive line, this run game, all of that stuff. Yeah, they're slightly below average in play action rate. Just that we at some point we should have a conversation about play action in the NFL in 2024 because who has and has not used play action at a high clip? To me is like absolutely fascinating. You have Kirk Cousins at the bottom of the league. That you can easily explain a way. They just aren't comfortable with him physically being under center and using play action. A huge portion of what made Kirk Cousins an effective quarterback in Minnesota was the amount of under center play action they ran. So we're throwing that out the window. We've had a million

conversations about Gino Smith and the lack of play action with him. He's second to last. Drake May has used play action on like 17% of his dropbacks, which when you think about the Brown's offense over the last couple of years when Alex Van Pelt was there and what they did well, that was like the main thing that they leaned into. And two of the other ones that are below average, even below Aaron Rogers, Brock Purdy has used play action on less than 20% of his dropbacks. And Tua has used play action less often than Aaron Rogers this year. So which teams have pivoted away from that and why?

I feel like we haven't spent a lot of time talking about it, but that grouping is really notable to me. I think that is interesting in the sense of most of those guys, outside of maybe like Man Pelt and Drake May, we're primarily at the peak of their powers, like, okay, we're going to run outside zone, and then we're going to call play action and boot off of that. Those teams were like, ah, that doesn't really work so much anymore.

Whereas teams that are really heavy play action now, you look at like the lions who are, I mean, they run some zone, obviously, everybody does, but they're a run at you. We're going to pull guys. We're going to have pull protection, all this sort of stuff. It's just a different style of play action than I think that we've probably been used to the past five, six years. So let's start the second question with the defense because it sounds like you have some faith that the defense can still be okay with some of the players that they have in house.

So how much faith do you have in the Jets defense being fixable with the guys they have in the building? I think I'm pretty comfortable with it. Like I think, obviously, Soss Gardner has had a down season. I do think some of that is just some of the shuffling that they had at defensive coordinator, at head coach. I think it, and then obviously I think he's had some injury issues towards the back half of the season now. So I think he'll probably bounce back. He'll be fine. And really, if you look at a lot of their roster,

the only, like, major, major piece that they are potentially losing this offseason is DJ Reed. He's going to be a free agent potentially. So if that is your only loss, like, he's a good player. But if that's really the only guy that you are in, you know, jeopardy of losing and you have a defense that I think can still be an above average unit, I think they are much closer to being able to play at that level. I would still like to see them fix, you know, maybe the safety room a little bit,

maybe get one more big body up front who can do a little bit of something for you. Like I think they're feeling the effects of not having John Franklin Myers anymore. But I really don't think that they are that far. Like they are one average offseason away on defense from getting back to, I think, closer to where they want to be. I think that's fair. To me, the biggest issue is probably, I think safety is worth mentioning. We'll see what they do with DJ read this off season.

The interior of the defensive line next to Quinn and Williams coming into the year, I was a little bit worried about that because that had been. a define strength of this team over the last few seasons, whether it was what John Franklin Myers was doing inside. Quentin Jefferson gave them really good snaps last year. And the fact that that group has been almost completely depleted outside of Quinn and Williams, that to me, is an area where I think they should focus some resources this offseason. But other than that, you lost Jermaine Johnson for a huge chunk of this year. I do think that there are enough guys, young guys currently on the roster for them to get back to playing in an above average level

as soon as next offseason with the right moves and the right coaching staff. Right. And like Will McDonald has taken a step. And so to your point, if they get a little bit more interior pass rush or, you know, the interior is better in the run game so that they can be in more of these pass rush situations, it's like, okay, you can start to see how they could start to stack this thing back a little bit, just with one or two more pieces that they can fit in there. On offense, this is a different conversation. And I think this is about we can go right to what needs to change with this offense.

The Rogers question is going to be the biggest question. So they theoretically, if they move on from Devante Adams, which I assume they will, because he has a gigantic cap hit that he will not play on. So releasing him, they would have about, I want to say, like, $65 million in cap space if they move on just from Devante Adams. So if they wanted to eat all of Rogers' contract in one year, they could. Or they could go the Russell Wilson route and they could try to split it up into two years. It would be 13 and a half this year and 35 next year. The amount of cap space they have in 2026, it seems like they might go that route and just split it into those two years. So this is going to be a team heading into the 2025 off season that really is comprised of young core pieces.

Quinn and Williams, Garrett Wilson, Soss Gardner, a couple of the other guys that we've talked about, and then some flexibility outside of that. So they really will have the resources if they want to to try to rebuild some of the areas of this roster. I'm just curious with a new GM, with a new coaching staff, where the priorities with that are going to lie. I just, how much faith do you really have that if they bring Aaron Rogers back next year that this offense is could be above average? I don't. I think you should just turn the page. Yes. I think you should just turn the page. I think talking yourself into running this back and trying to convince yourself that you can make it work, that's a mistake that to me would be a very bad start for whatever the new front office is going to look like. I'm glad we're on the same page of it because that's exactly where I am. What's the argument for not doing it that way? And that's the, you've already done so much to try to make this thing work.

It's just, you've probably seen what the peak of this can be. And like, you can make the argument if you really, really want to. Oh, Aaron Rogers, the biggest thing with him is chemistry and playing with his players. Well, if they're potentially going to move on from Devante Adams, which again, because of money, they probably will have to. Then you're left with the chemistry being Garrett Wilson, who he seemingly like still has some weird issues with despite some of the volume. And then, like, who are the other players that you think that the chemistry is even worth it? Like, they don't have other star pass catchers. So

I just think it probably is in their best interest to, to move on. I do think it is a, it's a weird unit for me to try to figure out which way I think that this is going to fall because you have Garrett Wilson, who I think can be still a really good player. I think the backs are something, you know, I think, uh, Brees Hall when he's at his best, is really explosive. Braylin Allen, I think is giving them a pretty good play out of that position. And then the offensive line, they've had some weird injuries this year. Morgan Moses is probably going to leave. But you can at least sell yourself on some of the young pieces, right?

Like Elijah Vera Tucker, when he's been healthy, he can be really good. Joe Tipman, I think, you know, he's a young player. He could maybe take a step. Foscienou, if he gets another year in the system, he's a really young player. He could maybe take a step. So I think a lot of it for me swings on how good can this young offensive line be. And I truly don't have the answer. It's one of those things where it could go either way for me.

But I think building with a lot of the guys that you have in the building up front, that's totally fine with me. I think you have enough pieces along the offensive line to convince yourself, okay, if we roll with this group in a 2025, could we get passable play from this position group? And I think the answer to that is probably yes. To me, the biggest argument against moving on from Rogers is if you move on from Rogers, who is the Jets quarterback in 2025? Does it matter? Like, it's been so bad this year that like, does it matter? I tend to think no. And so the guy, the quarterback that they would have under contract next year if they move on from Aaron Rogers is Tyrod Taylor.

So is there an argument for just saying, listen, we'll roll with Tyrod Taylor for a year. We know what this is going to be, but we're willing to take our medicine a little bit next year as we figure out what the next stage of this should look like. It's not dissimilar to the choice the bill's made in 2017. It's seven years later. and now you're getting seven years older Tyrod Taylor, but I don't necessarily think that's the worst place to be in a vacuum. Whether you can sell that to a fan base in your one of a new regime, I think that is a little bit more difficult.

That definitely might be more difficult. I also just don't really think that they are in a position to me where I don't think it matters what you can sell to the fan base. Like you've been so bad for so long and you just burnt so much equity by trying to, you know, you were selling the fan base on this version of it. I think if they take it, you know, next off season and next season where they go, all right, we need to eat our vegetables a little bit. This needs to be a little bit of a reset.

I don't know if Jets fans will necessarily be understanding, but it's like, this is kind of the way that they have to do this, given what all of they just tried to do the past two years. The irony is. Do you know who a reasonable quarterback solution for the Jets? Don't say Sam Darnold. Don't say Sam Darnold. It is Sam Darnold. If you sign Sam Darnold to the Baker Mayfield contract and you made him the Jets quarterback and you dropped him in and you have Garrett Wilson and that offensive line takes his stuff forward and the defense can be a solid unit.

I don't think that team is like winning the AFC East, but I think you could get potential passable play from that roster if you hire the right coaching staff. They're winning more than three games like that I could be caught. You can sell me on that, which again, I don't know if that's a good enough thing, but it's better than what they've got now. Zach Wilson is also a free agent this off season. Oh, okay. Now we're going, now we're going too far. I'll entertain Sam Darnold. Let's stick in the AFC East for the last team we're going to talk about here,

and that is the Miami Dolphins. In your opinion, what is at the root of the Miami Dolphins shortcomings in 2024? This is actually the toughest of all of them for me to really unpack and unravel why this team. Yeah, I think it is. I think we can say the Tua injury, and he missed a month, and they didn't win a lot of those games. but they're only five and four with Tua, which is good, but it's not like when they've had him. They are just completely running over every team that they've had.

I think they're in a little bit of a weird spot where when he's on the field, he's been good, especially lately early on in the season when he was with them. It didn't seem like they'd quite figured out the structure of the way that they wanted to figure out the offense. They've been a lot more quick pass heavy recently, like since he's come back. So I do think that there is something that you can sell yourself on there. The defense is really the confusing part to me because I think they've been, above average, but not good enough to make up for some of the struggles that they've had on offense, particularly when Tua wasn't there or early in the season. And then the most

complicating factor of it all is that if we're trying to think about, okay, how can we fix this moving forward? To me, I don't think you necessarily fix the offense. The offense is good, and also it just is what it is when you have this quarterback and these skill players. The defense, though, all of their best players are old. It's Jalen Ramsey. It's Callais Campbell. It's Fuller, Poir, Like all of these guys are old. And then even your best young guy, who is probably Jalen Phillips, has really struggled to stay on the field for a lot of his career. So it's just this is one of those teams where it's, I understand why there could be optimism based on how they've played the last seven weeks or whatever.

I just, it feels a little bit like they are a team that's closer to hitting their ceiling already than teams like the Niners or even the Cowboys, I think, at this point. I don't disagree with that, that they're closer to hitting their ceiling already. I just don't think we've seen their ceiling, and I think that they don't really have to do much and change much to seek out that ceiling in 2025. Similar to the Niners, they're in a spot where they can just kind of run this back next season if they want to. And if you look at them financially, that's the Bain difference. They don't have the wiggle room that a team like the Niners does even going into next year.

The Dolphins currently have $3 million in 2025 right now. they could free up some if they restructure to his deal. If they zero him out, that's like $24 million. But the other deals you'd want to potentially do that with, I don't know if they want to touch those deals. It's Bradley Chubb, it's Austin Jackson, it's Tehran Armstead. I don't know if you want to be pushing money into future years with those guys. You may have to because of the corner you've painted yourself into,

but they have a little bit less financial wiggle room. But even if they're not in a position to be big spenders this off season, you can still run back most of this team. Bradley Chubba's not played this year. Jaylon Phillips has not played for a huge chunk of this year. If you could argue, all right, if we get our best players and some of our most impactful players healthy heading into 2025, and we have this core of guys who are anywhere between like 30 and 35 years old, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, some of the other pieces on defense that you mentioned, Tehran Armstead, do we just say with the healthy Tua and some of our

our guys getting back on defense, we still feel like we can be a competitive team in 2025 before we have to make some hard financial decisions on some of these aging players. To me, that feels like the most likely path they're going to take. It probably is the most likely path. And I think on paper, it does make a lot of sense when you just look at the names. I think I'm probably just a little bit more scared that when you have this many players who are on the wrong side of 30, when they're all your most important player, or a majority of them are your most important players, especially.

on the defensive side of the ball, I'm just more inclined to be a little bit scared of some sort of regression coming for a lot of those players, whether it's Campbell or Fuller or Poir, just a little bit of taking a step back as you get closer to retirement or, you know, retirement or, you know, being on the back half of your career. So that's what I'm worried about. I don't disagree with that. I think that the needle they'd be trying to thread in 2025 is a very thin one. But I do think this is kind of their only path forward. Like, if we think about what needs to change. It's like, I think that they probably, they still, for the upteenth year in a row, need better players on the interior of the offensive line. That is my number one thing about

how the offense needs to change. But if you look at the offense specifically, with Tua on the field this year, they are fourth an offensive success rate and fourth in EPA per play. They're just ahead of the Ravens in EPA for play on offense with Tua on the field this year. Without him, they are dead last. So you could easily make an argument if, Tua is healthy for majority of 2025, and we bring back most of these component parts and Mike McDaniel, we have a very clear path to being a top five offense again. If we get some of our pieces back on defense, we like some of the stuff Anthony Weaver has done, can we thread this needle and be a playoff team again without adding much because we don't have the resources to add much? And then if you fall short again after next season, you have some difficult conversations about the staff, the build, and whether or not the inertia keeps going and you just keep rolling with this foundation of pieces. You know what?

You're selling me a little bit because I think when I was thinking about this and framing it a little bit, when I'm thinking of specifically the Cowboys and the Niners and even to the Bengals to an extent, I think my framing a little bit was in my head, how can they fix this? for the next few years, like how can they be able to rebuild this thing and sustain for a little bit longer? If we're just talking about one year, turning it around one year next year, yeah, the dolphins probably are pretty close to being able to get back to a 10 plus win team again, because the offense, again, unless they just have some sort of catastrophic injuries, they will be a top six offense again. And then if you don't see the cliff for some of these defensive players, then they'll probably be, what, the 13th best defense maybe? You know, maybe even a little bit better if Chubb comes back healthy and Phillips comes back healthy.

And maybe Chop Robinson takes a step. I like Chop Robinson, man. He's been good actually. We haven't talked about him much. I went back and watched him recently because we were going to do it upon further review, but we never got to it on the Dane show. And he was a guy that I just hadn't really spent a lot of time studying this offseason or this season. He plays with a lot more power than a 250-pound guy typically does.

I've been really encouraged by what I've seen from him. So we'll see. You know, like, I think that there's going to be a succession plan between a guy like Bradley Chubb and somebody like Chop Robinson. We'll see what happens with Patrick Paul if they move on from Toronto, Armstead, etc. It's, there's a lot of uncertainty about what it will look like when they turn the page. But I just feel like it was always kind of building to this. When you make serious investments in guys who are either 30 or approaching 30, it's always

going to be a short-term thing. You're always going to have a limited window in how long you'll be able to to pull this off. And I think that's where this team is. They have to pull it off next year. And if they don't, then they're going to have to think about what the reset looks like. But to me, there just isn't that much uncertainty about what the short term path forward looks like for the Dolphins. I think that's fair. And I do pretty much agree with you. I don't know what they have to fix really. Like you could probably add one player to the secondary and then like you said, the interior offensive line. But the offensive line thing is, it's almost like the Niners where this is just

not a thing that they necessarily need the way that some other teams do. It would be nice to fix it, but they just don't seem as intent on doing so. So, yeah, I, again, I think the long-term stability, I felt good about some of these other teams more than the dolphins. But yeah, for maybe just next year, there's something there. All right. That is all we've got for today. If you guys didn't notice it, we released an extra episode this week with me and Connor

or talking about the coaching carousel for this upcoming. coming off season. We also chat with Jordan Roderick and Al Cluiss on that show about just their experience is covering Kevin O'Connell. They did a piece about him early in the season. As we think about what teams are chasing at their head coach spot, I think that digging into what some of these archetypes really mean is a worthwhile exercise. So wanted to do that.

And, you know, when you're looking for a Kevin O'Connell type, what are you really looking for? So if you guys want to check that out as we wade into the coaching discussions here over the next few weeks, would encourage you to do that. we will be back on Friday with our week 15 preview until then sincerely appreciate you guys listening we'll talk to you very soon