The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Colts outlast Patriots, Jonathan Taylor is inevitable, Frank Reich & Carson Wentz in the spotlight with Zak Keefer

Episode Date: December 19, 2021

Jonathan Taylor is inevitable. Following the Colts' big win over the AFC rival Patriots, Robert Mays is joined by Athletic NFL / Colts writer Zak Keefer to discuss the win, Carson Wentz and Frank Reich's communication, Darius Leonard's Peanut Punches, and of course, Jonathan Taylor. How dangerous is this Colts team? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. It's a special edition of the podcast. We're coming to you on a Sunday morning. I am looking out over the field at Lucasoil Stadium, my first NFL game of the year. I am very excited to chat with our own.

Zach Kiefer. Zach, how you doing, man? I feel honored. This is your first game live? Yeah, I can't go on Sunday. So I have very few opportunities. And this was perfect. It was three hours away.

The Colts were playing on a Saturday. I might as well. I might as well go check it out. And I might as well have a conversation with you about it after it's over. Indy might have been your first training camp stop. One of the first ones. Way, way, way back in August. And here we are December 19th.

I mean, it's close, right? It makes sense. It is a quicker drive than you think it is. And this game did not disappoint. There was a lot to chew on from this. Let's start just with what this win means for the Colts. So you asked Frank Reich about that afterward. In your mind, what does this win mean for Indy, not only for this season, but kind of in the grand scheme of things?

Yeah, when you haven't beaten a team in 12 years, when it's been eight straight losses to the former rival, I don't even want to call them rival anymore. Because when you get your ass beat so many times, this meant a lot. You give the game ball afterward to the owner. That's how much this game meant to the city, to the fans who have lost so many games in embarrassing fashion of the Patriots. the Colts had to have this. It's more than just one win in the win column. It does move them up to the five seat in the AFC, but it kind of proves that they're legit in my mind.

You beat the bills a couple of weeks ago. You lose to Tampa Bay. They need wins like this against good teams, and they just got enough Jonathan Taylor at the end. When I watched that game today, and Frank Gregg said this afterwards, I thought it was such an interesting thing for him to say, kind of at the end of his availability.

He said that we went toe-to-to-st schematically with the smartest coach in the NFL, And he kind of like slipped it in there. And he could tell there was a point of pride for him. And when I was watching that team today, when they got the block pond touchdown, and when their defense is playing so incredibly fast and you see the offensive line really do the work necessary to get the ground game where it needs to. It's just a reminder to me that this thing is well put together. Like this environment that they've created here, the way this team is built with Chris Ballard in the front office,

the way the coaching staff is put together, not only with Frank Wright, but with the guy like Bob of Ventron as his special teams coordinator, with the job that Matt Iberfuss has done on defense. These guys are at the party now. Like consistently, this just feels like the type of organization

that's going to get the most out of its players. They have a vision for how this is going to work. I don't know what their ceiling is, and we can get to that in a second, but I have so much just inherent confidence in the people who are running this thing, thing now. And a win like this, an ugly win, a win that wasn't necessarily perfect, but like Frank Reich said is the type of win you need this time of year. This game is a reminder of that

to me. I wrote this week that this doesn't just change the tenor of this season for this team. Really, it's been reeling in a lot of ways since Andrew Lux's retirement three years ago. I think it changes the tenor of what they're capable of moving forward in the AFC. Or just how much faith you have in them doing that or how much faith you have in what they Because they've teased you a lot the last couple of months. You're telling me. We thought we had a lot of Colts chatter. And you're in the Colts PR.

I mean, just pushing this. They're 0 and 3. They're bad offensive line play. They're 1 and 4. They couldn't finish close games. They blew leads to Baltimore and Tennessee, and they were just a big tease. Now they're in something different. And I go back to this quote, and I've had this conversation with Chris Bowdo

a lot over the years. He always talks about December and January football. And yes, it's a cliche. But for years, they would fade in these big moments. And now they're built to do that, like you just said. They're built to have a 67-yard run against a stacked box, against a very good defense, the best in the league, and the best defensive coach of all time. They did it today in a way they haven't done it in a long time.

And I think that changes the way they look at themselves and the people around the league will look at them. So let's talk about what went right first. And I want to start on defense. Frank Reich said after the game, he just feels like the defense is improving. And you could just sense how fast they were playing today and they're flying around in a way that was noticeable. And they just have that. Stylistically, they really feel like they've settled in. Early season, there were some hiccups.

I think that they made some tweaks on the back end, some of the coverages that they were playing. They were dinged up in important spots. Even with some of the injuries to the back end of their defense and with Anderson Dale playing a lot, stuff like that, they still look very good right now. You look at it, the Patriots finished with 3.8 yards per carry on designed runs today. And even that's inflated by the end around to Kendrick Bourne. It was a 26% success rate on the ground. They were 43.3% coming into this game, which was the seventh best mark in the entire league. The Colts shut down a very good running game today.

And I just feel like their ability, we talk about offenses that can win multiple ways, right? Can you run the ball? Can you throw the ball depending on what a team is doing against you? I love that the Colts defense can win in multiple ways because they run more too high coverages than almost any other team in the league. Maddie Refluz is very willing to be patient to sit back to prevent explosive plays. And then they can come and not get bullied by. a bully today in New England. And I just think that ability to say, all right, however you want to

play, we can play that way too, has become a strength of this team. They can do it in a couple ways because they do a couple things really well. That is so essential in today's league. They stop the run. They did tonight. Bobby O'Caricay said this week, we're going to try and make them one-dimensional. That was a lot of headlines in New England. Oh, they're giving the Patriots and some bulletin board material. They stopped the run tonight like you said. And then secondly, and this is the thing I wasn't a believer in for a long time, they take the ball away at an alarming rate. They have 31 takeaways this season. They lead the league. That's on pace for whatever. 39. They talked about 40 in training camp, and a lot of us, including myself, kind of just rolled our eyes. And they're doing it.

And I don't know if that's something you can consistently count on, but hey, it's week 16 right now, or week 15 or whatever it is. And they've done it every week. They got two today. And what you're talking about from earlier in the season, Darius Leonard was playing on one ankle. And he was a problem. He wasn't playing great early season. He's had 11 takeaways really since week three, and he had two great plays early. He read that pitch early in the game, tackle for a loss, and then he absolutely read Jones for the interception.

They had two takeaways. The defense is starting to play well, and they're really covering up the fact that they don't have a good pass rush. They don't have a good pass rush, and the personnel in the secondary is not great. They miss Julian Blackman. Absolutely, and the corners are still overall question. It's not like this team has great cornerback.

They've sustained defensive success without great elite defensive personnel. And I think, again, that speaks to just the incubator that they've built here. We just play really good football on both sides of the ball, and they do. So the turnover question is an interesting one. I tend to be of the mind that that stuff is not sustainable, that eventually that is going to come back to Earth. That being said, I rooted for a team from 2004 through 2012 in Chicago that people always said that. It's always going to come back. It's always going to come back. And every year,

that team was really, really good at taking the ball away because they had a guy named Charles Tillman who had a very unique skill. Darius Leonard has a very unique skill. He had another force fumble today that Patriots happened to jump on. So I don't know if they can continue to do it at this rate, but it does feel like they have a defensive playmaker, especially in the middle, who's going to give you more chances to do that, even if it falls back to Earth a little bit. For a while, fun fact about Peanut Tillman, Ballard was on that staff for a long time. After the Colts drafted. One of his favorite draft picks.

It loves Peanut Tillman. He will talk Peanut Tillman for hours. After the Colts drafted Darius Leonard, Ballard texted Tillman and said, we just drafted the linebacker version of you. That's amazing. Darius Leonard uses those arms, punches the ball out relentlessly. The thing is, it's one of the most indicative stats in the entire league. And the Colts spout this out all the time.

Multiple turnovers, you're going to win 90% of the game. And I thought going into this week, if they made Mack Jones throw the ball 30 times and took the ball over twice, there's a 95% chance they win. It looked murky at the end. It felt like the tenor of the game had changed, but then Taylor had the run. So the defense held up, and it's frustrating for fans, and I hear it all the time. They give up a lot of yards. They give up a lot of first downs. They don't give up a lot of touchdowns because they tend to hold tight in the end zone.

It's an uneasy feeling, I think, for a lot of the fans. But like you said, if you do those little things right, the takeaways do tend to leave. to wins. I thought that Darius Leonard had some great moments today. I thought that Kenny Moore was incredible today. He had some really, really big time plays. And that's kind of what this defense is. And I do think, and this is, we can get to this kind of at the end. This is a larger Colts conversation. It's like, all right, where are they really? And what do they need to kind of join the upper upper echelon of the week? And I think that on defense, they still need a true difference maker at corner that they do not have. But you have Kenny Moore in the slot. You have Darius

Leonard, you have DeForest Buckner. And I think that today is like, all right, we have a couple stars on that side. And when you're playing fast elsewhere, Bobby O'Grady's interception was incredible. Like the speed they have combined with like the stars they have, I think it has the makings of a very good defense, even if it's not a great defense down in and down. The great irony of tonight is for three, two and a half quarters, they were pitching a shutout against Josh McDaniels, who along with Chris Ballard made the Mount Iberville's higher. Yes. I mean, it's just dripping in irony how that played out. But talking about it about that, he wanted a defense that could play super fast, that could get out to the passer, and they could do exactly what they're doing right now.

I definitely wouldn't classify them as an elite defense, but they make a lot of those plays that win games. O'Karek's interception, Darius making the tackle for loss and the interception. Kenny Moore's pass deflection in the end zone was a much needed pass deflection when Mack Jones was really starting to heat up. And the fourth and one, I mean, the double move on the right side, his left side, his right side. I mean, that's another just amazing sound Kenny Moore play. He's always in those spots. So let's stick with just again, the things we can get excited about. It just felt like that Jonathan Taylor run was inevitable. It just felt like it was inevitable. I texted my, our fantasy group chat when he had like 20 carries for 75 yards. And it was like, man, you've avoided the

monster so far. It's my buddy who's playing against him. But it just feels like that 70 yard run is coming. And then 20 minutes later, it was a 67 yard run. And that gear and the fact that that that is always on the table for them is remarkable. I looked it up today. I think he has, he's gained at least 10 yards on 16% of his runs this year. So like once every six runs or so goes for 10 yards. He has the number one rushing success rate in the league and he has the number one first down rate on all runs in the entire league. It's getting the yards that are there and it's creating the home runs. Like what he is for that offense, I don't think a running back can win MVP in 2021, but I don't think a non-quarterback has been as important to his

offense. I think it'd be hard to find a non-quarterback who's been as important to his offense this year as Jonathan Taylor has been. You've got to think this team was 0 and 3 and 1-4, and now in December 15th or whatever day it is, they're in the five seed and they're going to have to screw this up to not make the playoffs. And Taylor is the biggest reason for that. He's absolutely the best non-quarterback in the league right now. And I think he should be in the MVP conversation, even though MVP's don't go to running backs anymore. But this is not just a guy. And the little things that I notice is everyone gets all hyped up about the 80-yard runs and the 79-yard runs.

And he's got the two longest single runs by any running back. It's the two-yard runs that go for eight. Those little things, he wasn't doing as a rookie. His vision is really picked up. And when he slipped past Hightower in the hole tonight, that's the perfect illustration of the climb he's made is a second year back. And when he's got that home run ability, it's changed the game. game for this team and it's covering up holes with Carson Wentz who's making mistakes and it's

covering up holes in the defense and it's really I mean it it's exercising the demons this team has had for 12 years against the Patriots let's talk about Carson Wentz because you look at that game and it's so hard to come away from that entire experience tonight and not think is that going to hold them back not just this year in general is this going to hold them back Is this team just good enough to break your heart as currently constructed with the talent that they have with Carson and Wentz a quarterback? And I know that might be overstating it, but it's so, so hard to eject that thought from your mind when you watch how the second half of that game played out. Did you think, like, what were you thinking? When the Patriots were making the comeback and Wentz had made one dumb interception and just, we tried to throw a couple more before that.

Didn't you just feel like I don't trust him. I can't trust him. Whether you have a rooting interest in the game or not, it's just that's the vibe we've gotten. And I totally agree with you. It's kind of just sitting there in the back of your mind. Can he make the throw to win a game? He hasn't really done that this season. And there's been games where he's only needed to throw for 100 yards, like in Buffalo.

They didn't need 102. Tonight, five for 12 for 57 yards, a touchdown, which was really just a pitch on the cold second drive, the interception that should have been two or three, a pass a rating of 49. Is he going to be what holds them back? Possibly. He's had moments where he's played really well. They beat the Niners by 12, and he had the game winning touchdown at the end. But I just haven't seen enough to solidify him as a reason they win.

I asked Frank Craig this tonight, and it might have seemed like a stringent's question, but I was curious, how often he's in Wentz's ear after a play call, which is like, all right, if you see this, then maybe do this. Like, you don't do this. And I'm curious on that and the interception. in that moment, do you tell him on first down when you're winning by two scores, it's like, if you don't have it, just throw it away. If you don't have it just throw it.

It's a boot on first down. All he has to do is dirt that thing into the flat and you go to second down. Instead, he stops on that action and then throws back to the middle of the field. Jamie Collins tips that ball. Even if Jamie Collins doesn't tip that ball, it probably could have been intercepted by Devin McCordy. It's how bad of a decision that it was. And that's my concern here is that I don't fear that can he make a throw to win you a game. He absolutely can't, but he can also make two or three that can have you lose a game.

That's my concern here. And the reason that I was so excited, not excited, the reason I had faith in the Carson Wentz decision from the Colts is that I thought the infrastructure we talked about, the environment, the incubator that we talked about could get him back to competency, could make him a viable quarterback. It has. And it has. It has. It has. But part of me is just, I want Frank Wright to tell him before every play, just take a breath. Just take a breath.

You don't need to do this. You don't need to be a hero because that's not how we're set up. We don't, we're not asking that of you. And I just wish that his heart rate was just turned down like two notches in some of these moments because it is terrifying. He has. Frank has told him that. I know for a fact in the quarterback room. He has told him, I want your eyes.

looking here and I don't want you to try and make this play. If you go back to Carson in 2020 in Philadelphia, what was the problem, right? He was trying to be Superman too often, make the plays that he tried to make tonight. And that was the issue. And I feel like Frank, if Frank has pulled 90% of him out of that, right, there's still that 5, there's still that 10%, right? There's still a little bit of those Carson Wentz play. Wence is going to wince, right? Every couple games, he's going to make a decision that just makes you scratch your head. And if you're a fan of the team, makes you a little uneasy moving forward. He's gotten so much out of wence

and gotten so much rid of that stupidity, for lack of a better word. Just those moments where it feels like he loses his mind. But it's always there. And he hasn't put that to bed and the left-handed interception against Tennessee and a couple of their plays. And then tonight, triple coverage to Zach Pascal over the middle, it always feels like those are

possible. And that makes you worry. I was talking to someone. He hasn't silenced that yet. He absolutely. hasn't. I was talking to someone with the organization, maybe a week or go, we'd go two weeks ago. We're just talking about how there's this creeping feeling that they might be able to beat everyone, anyone in the AFC, because there's no one that's truly great. Coming into the season, I thought they'd be a year away no matter how it's played. It's like, you need the little tiny things to finish this thing off. Your ceiling still isn't probably that of a healthy Ravens team, of a chief's team. Taylor changes that. Yeah, and he changes that a little bit,

but also just the depressed ceiling of the other teams in the AFC change that. I think that they can beat anyone in the AFC right now. But my question is about what their ultimate, ultimately what their ceiling is with Wentz over the next year, two years. Like, what is this team really? Because I, again, going back to the first point, you just watch them play and it's so cohesive. And like that touchdown drive with the Heinz touchdown, even the play before that, they sent Hines, on a little orbit motion where they get a third and one rush to Taylor. It's like a beautiful play and like Neheme Heinz's skill set.

Heinz and Taylor on the field together. It's amazing. And it's just like this singular thing that only Neheme Heinz can do at running back. I said it looked like Tyree Kill on that play the way he moves in that short area. They have all these guys who are kind of curiosities like that where football nerds are going to watch those guys. Oh, that's so interesting. But I wonder how it all comes together.

Like what does the final stage look like? And can they make it this year? the AFC is watered down. With the right moves, can they make it next year? That's my question here. Is this going to be a team that moves beyond this group and system and front office and just overall organization that we should feel good about because of what they've built into a people should be scared shitless of us? And I just don't know if that step is taking it. They're not there yet. No, they're not that the scared shitless phase. But I think this version of the Colts is what we thought we might see back in training camp. If they had been healthy early, right? They're getting back to that elite

offensive line. They're getting the running game going. Carson doesn't have to win them games, which was the beauty of the trade, right? And you go back to the trade and this is what everyone kind of forgets. The options out there weren't good. Like they checked on Derek Carr, no. They thought about Sam Darnold. No. You know, they thought about trading up in the draft. They didn't think Justin Fields would be there. So Wentz was going to be the best of a lot of mediocre options. And I always believe that I've always thought that Wence was going to be a a lot better in year two. Remember, he didn't have a training camp.

He didn't have a preseason. Even the skeptics made the season within the year have been really impressive, considering where he was the start. Taking a step back, you look at that, he's been pretty much, the whole question of the season was, was he going to be the guy moving forward, right? He's here for four years on that contract. He's going to be here. What does the ceiling look like?

You just have to kind of take a pause and wonder, is he going to be able to get them to the absolute, you know, deep playoff run level. You look at it. And I don't want to go too far forward because I do think that they could win a playoff game. I think they could win a couple playoff games. But you just think about, all right, what does the next stage of this have to look like? The offensive line is set, right?

I think Fisher hopefully will be back on a reasonable deal if they can afford it. What he and Quentin Nelson have on the left side of that line is a run blocking duo is incredible. And it works really, really well with this little formula that they have going. They will invest in the line. have a very good one. I think it'll be Pitman as your de facto number one receiver, because I don't think they believe in investing in a true number one receiver spending the money to go get one. It's Pittman. So let's go get one more pass catching playmaker because Paris Campbell never

became that. And it's an unfortunate thing to be missing from the overall recipe that this offense is. And a tight end would be another example. Frank, Rick would love a tight end. One more splashy pass catcher on this offense and another step forward from what's. What does that look like? And then on defense can you go get another corner? And again, it feels like I'm pushing that a little bit too far and I'm too concerned about that because they probably can beat some of the teams in the AFC where they're constructed right now. But that's kind of where I'm at with this team is that you watch what happens tonight. And it really does give you those warm and fuzzy football feelings because of how cohesive it all is. But that's my question is that I still have those couple

things hanging out in the back of my mind about where they can ultimately go. And it's a really really hard to silence that. The only questions that Wenz has answered this year is that he's good enough to beat average teams against the good defenses. He hasn't done that. He hasn't done that. I will say against Tampa Bay, they couldn't run the ball. He switched. He got really hot. They led three straight touchdown drives against Tampa Bay. And that was some of his best football he's played all year. But tonight against Bill Belichick, the quarterback didn't get it done. And that's kind of the thing in the back of your mind, if you're a Colts fan, is, can Carson, and do that. And for this city, they're used to having quarterbacks that always were able to get

over the hump, whether it's an average defense or an elite defense, and five for 12 for 57 yards tonight. It's funny that you mentioned Belichick. I want to end on this note. I think it's, there's something really beautiful about Josh McDaniels coming back here and facing this Colts team that looks like it does right now. And what Frank Reich has been over the last few years and just that, again, that confidence I have in the program they've built here at all levels, it's just such a reminder that we don't know anything about this stuff. The coach that they got last because the other guy decided not to take the job is now, in my opinion, unassailably, one of the best coaches in the league.

I don't care how many you would stack up or what the list actually looks like. There's a table of guys where you have built something where you get the most out of your players. You do this the right way. And he is there. He is one of the best coaches in football. And that is so apparent tonight. And I think there's something really, really great about it coming against the Josh McDaniels-led team.

It's wild how it's a hundred out of a hundred in terms of the Colts have no regrets at all. And if they make the playoffs this year, that's three playoff trips and four years under Frank Reich with four different starting quarterbacks. Starting quarterbacks with very different skill sets. And the one year they didn't make it was with the franchise quarterback retiring 15 days before the season opener. And they were five and two with Jacoby Reset. And now that you watch Jacoby Brissette play in Miami, you think, God, Frank Reich got a lot out of Jacoby Bucet when he was here. It's been a wild ride. The fact that they've stabilized things through that chaos through those four quarterbacks with very different skill sets is a credit to Frank Reich.

And what he's doing with Carson Wentz this year, getting this team out of its own four, 0 and 3 at 1 and 4 hole is pretty remarkable. I just want to take Colts fans back to like week four earlier this year when everyone had to go. right like the wed's trade was a disaster right is frank right going to give up play calling is chris baller too patient right is are willing to be aggressive enough to like really make some moves here it's all good guys you are you are one of the teams you have you should have faith in the guys pulling the strings here for you and as someone who is on the exact opposite end of the spectrum there in the nfl world do not take that for granted do not take how stable the situation has become for granted it's stable now

let's see if it can be really, really good here over the next year, over the next month. They're not a flawed team. I mean, they're absolutely a flawed team. But at the same time, they're a scary team to play in the AFC place. Oh, I wouldn't want to play them in there. They're absolutely a scary team. Any given game, this is the type of team that absolutely could beat you because of the way the defense plays and because of their running game. Takeaways, run game.

Yep. It's their ask Buffalo. Like, they are one real locked in two-quarter stretch from blowing you. you off the field. There are a couple moments today where this game gets out of hand in a hurry, and it doesn't because New England's actually really good too. Right. So, man, in this weird-ass AFC, I am not counting them out. And I just, I don't think I expected that before the season, week five, whenever you want to put the time frame on it. But here we are. Zach Kiefer, thank you very much, my friend. Always good to chat with you. Guys, appreciate you listening. If you have

not checked out Friday's show with Nate and Sheel. You can also give that a quick listen before the games kick off later today. As always, appreciate you listening. Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. You can read Zach's story about this game right now on The Athletic. Please rate and review the show on Apple or wherever you listen to your podcast. We will be back tonight and tomorrow morning with Nate. Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.