The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Conference Championship best bets and picks against the spread

Episode Date: January 22, 2021

In the opinion of one of our two hosts, this is the best NFL weekend of the season. Championship weekend routinely brings together at least three of the four best teams in the league, if not all four, and this season is no exception. The Packers and Buccaneers get things going on Sunday in the NFC Championship Game, and then the Chiefs and Bills cap off the night in the AFC Championship Game.Start your Championship Weekend prep with Michael Beller and Vic Tafur on The Athletic Football Show. The guys offer up their picks for sides and totals in both games, highlighting their absolute favorite plays of the weekend. And hey, Beller found a fun prop he likes, while Vic came up with a new segment to put a bow on the episode.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Championship weekend is here, one of the best football weekends of the season. And we are here as well at the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show to talk you through the NFC Championship between the Packers and the Buccaneers, the AFC Championship between the Chiefs and the Bills from a gambling perspective. I am Michael Beller. I am joined, of course, by Vic Tafer. What's going on, man? Three games left this season. Very excited for this weekend that we've got ahead of us.

Yeah, I'm excited. Maybe be a little more excited if not for the last week's debacle, but yeah, I'm excited. Well, let's get into that. So let's really quickly circle back to last weekend before we talk about the championship games that we've got ahead of us. We nailed the Packers. You and I were both very heavy on the Packers. We said it was a game we were very confident in. And, yeah, I think that 14-point difference in the game doesn't really fully convey just how much the Packers owned that game from start to finish. So that was good. We started the weekend off on a strong note. We were different sides of Bills and Ravens. I ended up being right. You ended up being wrong on that one.

The Chiefs, that's the one that really hurts here, because I think they're headed to a relatively easy cover of the 10, 10 and a half, 11, wherever you ended up landing on with that. I think they're headed to a pretty easy cover before Patrick Mahomes suffered the concussion and went out of that game. And then we had Saints and Buccaneers, which I've got something to say on, but I know you want to say something on Chiefs and Brown. So I'll let you take that one away.

I agree with you. I think that game definitely, the Chiefs covered that one pretty easily if Mahomes doesn't get, I don't even know if it was a concussion or if he just choked out, whatever it was, but I thought that was definitely a game that people who bet the Chiefs should have covered that one. And I was kind of heartbroken by the Ravens game. Going back to the Ravens, when I thought the Ravens, I think they had five possessions into the 30, had three points. I think Lamar Jackson got hurt, but that point was pretty much over.

But I just thought they were right there the whole game. I thought the bills couldn't. Come throw the ball deep. That was a big, big factor. So that one also hurt. So I was just, I was reeling the whole weekend. After that great first game, it was just Heartbreak City for me the rest of the weekend. You know, it's those three games. And certainly the two, the two nightcaps, were, I think, defined by one turnover.

Right? You had the pick six in Ravens and Bills, and that ultimately decided the game. And maybe if Lamar Jackson doesn't get hurt, the Ravens are able to cobble something together. But like you said, it was pretty much over by time. Mar gets hurt. But if that ends up being a touchdown, we're talking about a tie game. Even if it ends up being a field goal, we're talking about a 10-6 game instead of a 17-3 game where it really felt like the Ravens were fighting a big uphill battle. They're just not that type of team, right? They're not the sort of team that you want to be betting on down by two touchdowns to make a

comeback. And then Saints and Buccaneers, that game, you know, it's easy to look back on that game and feel as though the Buccaneers were clearly the better team throughout. But Jared Cook, if he doesn't fumble that ball in Tampa territory, we're talking about a first and 10 from about the Tampa 45, four and a half minutes left in the game, and the Saints up by a touchdown. That game looks a whole lot different if Jared Cook doesn't fumble. And then from that point forward, Tampa completely dominated the game.

It was a clinic, again, from Tom Brady, in closing out victories with the way that they turned a seven-point deficit into a 10-point win in about 19 minutes of football time and, you know, what we've come to expect from Tom Brady over his, you know, singular football career. But that game looks a lot different if Jericho holds on to that ball after picking up the first down. Yeah, I agree with you. That was a huge humble.

Plus, you know, Drew Breeze was terrible. I mean, if he was just, like, bad or, like, below average, they win that game easily, but he was awful. I think, you know, didn't take advantage of the buck's secondary. Michael Thomas turns out needs surgery, like multiple surgeries on his ankle. He played hurt. So didn't take advantage of what I thought was the Bucks' big weakness. So just, and Tom Brady didn't play very well.

I thought Brady did not play very well, actually to be honest. So I think that's an edge for this week going and looking ahead. I think the Bucks definitely got a little lucky in that one. And maybe we are giving away a little bit what we think about the championship games this weekend with the way that we look back on how we did last week. So hopefully it's more of the same that we saw from the first game, right? Like we said, we loved the Packers. believe that I think you said it was your favorite play of the weekend.

I said it was my second favorite play of the weekend. So we were both very confident in the Packers, taking care of business against the Rams. Hopefully we can find more plays like that for championship weekend. We put the divisional round behind us and we get on to championship weekend right here. Let's do it, Vic. Let's talk championship games. The NFC game is the first game of the day on Sunday.

We are taking these lines as Vic and I are recording this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast and the Athletic Football Show. It is Thursday afternoon. So that is when we are taking these lines. Things could change. A point and a half point here or there. But we are locking these in right here, right now, Thursday afternoon. Packers, three and a half point favorites playing this game in Lambo against the Buccaneers.

51 is the over under in this one. Vic, I love the Packers. I think the Packers are winning the Super Bowl. I've been saying that for a few weeks. They were my pick before we started the playoffs. The Saints were my pick before the season. Packers were my pick before the playoffs. Nothing that they have shown us.

and nothing, frankly, anyone else has shown us in these playoffs. Leads me to believe that the Packers are not the best team here. I love, love, love, love, the Packers, minus three and a half in this one. Where are you at on it? Yeah, I'm with you. I'm fully still on the band of the league. I think last week they were very impressive last week. And there's some value.

The lines down to three points now. People are buying the Tom Brady stuff. So I just think, like you said, they're the hottest team. The bills are actually also very hot. But one of the hottest teams in the league, Air Rogers, MVP season. Something to prove because they played poorly against. of bucks last time, so they're definitely not going on the right approach. I'm sure trying to fix all the problems they had the first time.

So I just think they're a more balanced team both sides of the ball. And they're at home, which is a big fact. It shouldn't be too cold, but I'll be cold enough. I think that the home fill advantage still stands. So, yeah, I'm with you. I love the Packers. Yeah, Shield Capadia and Ted Winn, two of our colleagues here at the Athletic have really great breakdowns on both of these games.

And I read through both of them this week. If you're an athletic subscriber, you are definitely going to. who want to check those out before you make your plays. And hey, if you're not an athletic subscriber, good chance to get it in right here right now. Go to theathletic.com slash fantasy football pod, and you can get yourself a subscription for $3.99 a month, and you can check out everything we do at the Athletic,

including these two columns that I am talking about. But they point out, and this is something that we've talked about with the Buccaneers all season, this is a team that has been susceptible to the deep pass. They have given up their fair share of big plays. It is a very strong run defense, but as good as Aaron Jones is, as good as Jamal Williams can be as a secondary piece,

as dangerous as AJ Dillon has shown himself to be in spurts over the last couple of games for the Packers here. It's still not where the bread is butter. It is still the money is made for this team through the air and off the play action game. And that is something I think that Aaron Rogers can bring the bear against this Buckingiers team. Actually, one bet that I have already made

in addition to Packers minus three and a half is Marquez Valdez-Scanling to score the first touchdown in this game because I think that they are going to be susceptible to what the Packers do with some of their concepts, pushing the ball deep down the field. And I think that's just ultimately where the difference in this game is. You pointed out in last week's game for the Buccaneers against the Saints, how bad Drew Brees was.

And it was not as though Drew Brees' bad play started with the Jared Cook fumble that I referenced. He was not playing well, really, from the start of that game. And as we already went over, we're talking about inside five minutes left in the third quarter. and the Saints holding a touchdown lead over the Buccaneers before that Jared Cook fumble. And you're just not going to see, I feel comfortable saying, of course it's not a 0% chance. But I feel comfortable saying you're not going to see Aaron Rogers play the way that Drew Brees played against this team. Last week, you're not going to see Aaron Rogers played the way he played against the Buccaneers. Back in week six when the Buccaneers crushed the Packers, the one true bad game Aaron Rogers had all season,

Buccaneers a 38 to 10 victory. They really troubled him with the blueprints. in that game. And since then, this is a stat that blew my mind. I wish I could remember where I saw it, but I can't. I want to give credit where credit is due. I'll try to find it and put it out there. But zero sacks taken on blitzes by Aaron Rogers since that week six game. That is a remarkable statistic thick. And they've done it the last couple of weeks without David Bakhtiari also. And that's obviously a loss for this team, but they, I think, have absorbed it. And this line has just been excellent, really all season, and especially from that Buccaneers loss on.

the way that this line has protected Aaron Rogers, the way that he has been shifty in the pocket, as we know he can still be at 37 years old. I just think that's really where the difference in this game is made, that there is probably no unit playing better football right now than the Green Bay Packers' offense and really the Green Bay Packers passing game. And if you look at the way the league has gone and why these four teams are alive, it is because of their passing offenses,

the top four passing offenses in the league by almost any single metric that actually isn't just volume-based, and that is why they're here. And I think that is ultimately what makes the difference in this game. I just don't want to be against Aaron Rogers in another MVP season for him with the way that he is playing. Is there anything that scares you off this game? Like, if we're wrong, what do you think goes wrong for us in Back and Green Day? Well, I think the running game of the Buccaneers is a little dangerous.

Furnett's playing pretty well. Ronald Jones is running hard all season long. I think the Packers have been vulnerable to their running game at time. So I think if those two guys got going, I definitely could change the tempo of the game. I think that would be the one thing I'll be worried about. Yeah, you know, we saw Ronald Jones get back on the field after being active, right? Didn't he? The first game of the playoffs against Washington, but dealing with a leg injury in that game

and didn't actually touch the ball. I don't think he actually even stepped on the field in that game. Got back on the field last week. Got 13 carries. Look pretty much like his regular self. I would imagine we do see some sort of breakdown between he and Leonard Fournette in this one. And I think that's also, I agree with you, as much as, you know, obviously we're not going to see, you know, even if the Buccaneers win, we're not going to see a 20 to 17 game in this, I don't think. We're not going to see the Buccaneers win with Tom Brady throwing for 170 yards and one touchdown and one interception.

That's just not going to be how it goes. But I do think as good as Tampa's offense has been recently that they are the team that benefits from slowing this game down. They are the team that benefits from keeping the other team's quarterback off the field and making. this a game of limited possessions, as few possessions as there possibly can be. And with the efficiency of these offenses, that could play out, that script could come to fruition. And we would still be talking about like a 27 to 24 game. Again, I do not think we're looking at a low-scoring game with these two teams getting together. But that is where the Buccaneers do have a significant advantage, is running the ball. They don't want to do that, obviously. You know, Bruce Ariens has never

wanted to do that in his career as a head coach, and they're still going to push the ball. the field quite a bit, but I do think that that's where this could end up being a difference for Tampa is there. You also have to consider the fact that Jaya Alexander has been asked to lock down receivers. The Packers are willing to shadow with Jire Alexander. Obviously, the Buccaneers have two great receivers as of right now. We're not exactly sure, but the state of the play is going to be for Antonio Brown after the injury he suffered last week. But it's going to be Geyer Alexander on Mike Evans, right? I mean, with Chris Godwin, mostly being a slot guy, and now, Antonio Brown, not being at 100 percent. And at the respective stages of their career,

maybe Mike Evans is just the more dangerous guy. It's Jaya Alexander against Mike Evans. And I'm not suggesting that Jaya Alexander can totally take away Mike Evans, but he can make things a hell of a lot harder on Mike Evans than things were for him last week against the Saints, against Marchon Lattimore. And Marshall Lattimore did a great job on Mike Evans. One catch, right? It was a touchdown, but still, I think it's going to be, it could be another tough day for Mike Evans in this one. And Chris Godwin's the guy who scares me from the Packers perspective, because I think that's really where you can attack this defense is in the middle of the field, and Chris Godwin not having to face that Alexander coverage. That's where things, I think, can be stepped up in a way

for Green Base Pass, or for Tampa Base Passing game, excuse me, that does ultimately get the Packers into trouble. But I still really like the Packers in this one. Is there anything else that you're thinking about in this game before we move on to the AFC? No, I think we've got it pretty much covered. I think we're, we've got all our reasons to check, and are there some fears checked? I think we're good. All right, so here we are. Here's a consensus pick. They didn't treat

us so well in the regular season. We were right at 500 at the end of the year, but we're consensus in the NFC. We are both backing the Packers, three, three and a half. You're seeing it. You know, a lot of places where you see it at three, you see it at like minus 120 or minus 125, some ridiculous odds

like that. I would rather just go to the three and a half and take it at minus 110, but that's basically where you're going to see it. That's what you're going to have to do. Both Vic and I are feeling the Packers. And this one moving on to the Super Bowl, let me just say one more thing before I get us over to the AFC game. I know I'm rambling a little bit, but like, you know, Tom Brady, this is remarkable and it would be crazy for him in his first year in Tampa to take the Buccaneers to the Super

Bowl and just, you know, make this like, just the, like, for, like cement on top of cement on top of cement of what a career this guy has had. But the football fan, take any rooting interest out of it. Shouldn't the impartial football fan want to see another Aaron Rogers Super Bowl? I think it would be a real shame if this guy retires. And it's not going to happen after this season, but just has one Super Bowl to his name. Just one Super Bowl appearance, not even Super Bowl win. Just one Super Bowl appearance for Aaron Rogers? I think that would be a real shame. It's not his fault that Brandon Bostic thought he should be the person recovering an on-side kick and at Jordan Nelson a couple of years ago against Seattle. It's not his fault that his defense gave up

51 points to the Cardinals a couple of years ago in the NFC divisional round. But that could be a way that Aaron Rogers ends up going out again. And I just really, with the way that his career has gone, I would love to see him get at least one more Super Bowl appearance. When lost, whatever happens and the Super Bowl happens, I want to see him get at least one more Super Bowl appearance. And we know he has a great shot to get it this week. So that's another rooting interest that I've gotten this one. Yeah, that's feel like it's his year. I will say this, though, if the Bucks come out

win his game and Brady's playing Super Bowl at home, I think they win the whole thing. I think the Bucks is like, if they went this weekend, I think they win it the whole thing. So I think, which is ridiculous, considering he's coming to a new team, he's 43 years old. Didn't have a regular summer, didn't have a

training camper. Exactly. To work out any of the kinks. Yeah, the excuse to every coach used this season about how No many camps and training camp was a joke and blah, blah, blah. I mean, he came into a new team and just took over and had no problems. It's pretty amazing. I mean, obviously, everyone says all the time.

He's just a unique guy, just one of a kind. I know rare fans hate the guy, but he were rare fans. I think they tip their cap to him once in a while just because of longevity. And just here we are again. This is 12th conference championship game. That's ridiculous. 14th. 14th.

My bad. So, yeah, so see, even better. Yeah. So yeah, I agree with you, Aaron Rogers. This is his year, but if not, I think it quickly becomes Brady's year all of a sudden. Two things really quick before we move on to the AFC game. First, a stat. This one I do remember I saw it.

Hat tip to our colleague, Jay Morrison, who covers the Bengals. You can also hear Bengals podcast. You hear that podcast, Corralin. If you are a Bengals fan, he put this out there after the Buccaneers beat the Saints. The Most Conference Championship appearances by team since the merger, since 1970. You have, I believe it was the 49ers at the top. I can't remember who else was up there.

There were two teams. Maybe the Cowboys. I can't remember what it was. But there were two teams that had six, can't be the Cowboys. But whatever. Two teams was 16. Maybe it was the Steelers with 16. Then you had the Patriots with 15.

And then you had Tom Brady with 14. That's just, I mean, that is insane that there have been effectively two teams because the Patriots are only there because of Tom Brady. Right. So there are two teams. Teams that have more appearances in the conference. championship round since 1970, then Tom Brady, just absolutely ridiculous. So that is thing one.

And then thing two, I'll ask you here is, so you're saying the winner of the NFC is going to win the Super Bowl. We're going to get to the AFC game in the second. But for the Super Bowl, you think that the winner of this one ultimately wins it all? That's a good question, actually. I think, I mean, I'm going to tease my hand, but I'm still on my Holmes guys. So I think my Holmes Rogers will be a great game. I'm not sure who I picking that one.

But I just think the base on the way it would be set up for Brady playing. home, a little momentum. I think that they beat the Chiefs. But I'm not sure about the Packers versus Chiefs. Well, just a couple of weeks ago, you were able to get the NFC representative at like plus 120 plus 125. So that definitely is looking good. But finally, we'll put a bow on this one.

We both like the Packers to move on and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. All right. AFC time, bills and Chiefs. This one we've been building to for a long time, Vic, right? I mean, the NFC, we did have some sort of jockeying for position. Green Bay got out to a quick start, but then they had a little bit of a hiccup, and they lost that game to Tampa. Tampa obviously came in with all the fanfare with Tom Brady. Maybe they were the best team.

Maybe Green Bay was the best team. Seattle got off to that ridiculous start to the season. Maybe they looked like the best team in the NFC for a time. There was some jockeying before things settled on Green Bay being the best team in the NFC. And the AFC, despite the fact that we had. had what eight teams win at least 10 games in the AFC and all seven teams where 11 wins are better. It's been relatively clear for a while now that the Chiefs and the Bills have been the two best teams in the AFC. So as fun as a Cinderella story is, I do like to see the best teams, the teams we know are the best squaring off for the biggest stakes.

And that's definitely what we have in this AFC championship game between the Bills and the Chiefs. We've got a field goal spread here. Obviously, we are all expecting Patrick Mahomes to be out there for the Chiefs. The Chiefs are favored by that field. A little 54 is the over under. You already gave it away. You're still on the Chiefs here. So make the case for the Chiefs to not only win this game and go back to the Super Bowl

for the second straight year, but cover the three. Well, first off, just looking at the line. I think there's a good value. I think you look back at the earlier matchup this season. At Buffalo, the Chiefs for minus five and a half. They covered pretty easily. I think I know the bills have gotten a lot better since they've been on a roll. Still, I think, three points at home, laying three at home with Patrick Moore at home.

So I think it's going to be fine. It looks like all the cases that he's practicing. It seems like he's okay. I think, again, he was more choked out than he was sustained a concussion. So I think they were rolling last week with him. I go to one easily last week, so there's some value there because it didn't happen. So I think they're the better team. They're at home.

And the best player in the league plays for them. So I think the chiefs are a good value bet. It's hard to look back at that game and take too much from it, I feel like. For one, you said, as you said, the bills have been so much better since that point of the season. For another, we have some injuries on Kansas City side that did not exist at the time, some injuries on Buffalo side that did exist at the time and no longer do, the most important of which being Matt Milano, their star linebacker, did not play in the first meeting between these teams. He's healthy. He's good to go.

You do have Zach Moss, who is out for Buffalo. but, you know, this game, just like the first one, I think is going to be defined by the two teams passing attacks. And I keep going back and forth on this one, Vic. You know, as we started the show, I really wasn't sure still where I wanted to land on this one. And right now I'm with you. Right now I do lean toward the chiefs. And it does, you know, as simplistic as it feels like saying, it comes down to Patrick Mahomes for me.

And I think we have no reason to believe he won't be fully healthy and ready to go in this one. And you just want to trust the best player on the field, right? You want to trust the best player on the field at the most important position. And all due respect to Josh Allen, he definitely could outplay Patrick Mahomes. None of us would be shocked if we're sitting here talking about Josh Allen, you know, being the better quarterback that day than Patrick Mahomes. That is definitely something that is in the reasonable range of outcomes for this game. But when we're talking about two great teams, field goal spread, more often than not,

I want to ride with the best player at the most important position, and that is still Patrick Mahomes. I think that the bills, this has not been the same defense, really all season from Buffalo, that we saw a year ago. And as we saw in that game against Cleveland, this Kansas City team is just very creative in getting ways to get at least one of Travis Kelsey or Tyreeke Hill beneficial matchups every single snap that they take. And again, I'm going to reference the column that Sheel and Ted wrote on the AFC side of the bracket. They talk about, they reference Sean McDermott after that game in the regular season, talking about how you have to pick your poison against the Chiefs. And McDermott meant run versus pass, pick your poison. And Clyde Edwards-Alaire tore them up for 160-something yards in that game. But, you know, Sheel and Ted in their column make the point that it's also pick your poison versus when it comes to Travis Kelsey or Tyreek Hill.

And that makes things so tough and as great as Buffalo has. been through the air this season, as great as Josh Allen has been as much of a weapon as he is as dangerous as he is running the ball. You take away Stefan Diggs and things can look a lot different for Buffalo's offense. Taking away Stefan Diggs is much easier for me to sit here and say that it's going to be for Kansas City to actually do on Sunday. But if they can find a way to slow Stavon Diggs down, and they're talking about, you know, death by a thousand cuts with Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie and hopefully John Brown doesn't beat you for a big one deep. Hopefully Gabriel Davis doesn't beat you for a big one deep.

And you can keep that Buffalo offense in check. Kansas City's offense, it is very hard to take away both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey on individual plays, let alone for an entire game. It's just something that, frankly, we haven't seen this entire season. You go back and look through Kansas City's game logs. One of those guys has gotten going in every single game for this team this year, if not both of them. And I think that's where a difference is made, is that these teams are so even in what they do.

They're both so dangerous. They both want to throw the ball. They both want to spread you out. They're both so good at doing all of those things. Neither of them are going to lean on the run game too much. So no Zach Moss, potentially no Clyde Edwards, Aller. I don't think that's going to be a, you know, we're not going to be talking about the run game deciding this.

You know, we talk about Green Bay being susceptible to the run and Tampa, not wanting to run, but I could see a scenario in which we talk about Tampa's run game being the difference in that one, even though I think Green Bay covers. I don't think we're going to be talking about either. of these run games, either of these run defenses being the difference in this AFC game. It is going to be decided through the air. And I think

it's a fair enough tiebreaker to say Patrick Mahomes plus Travis Kelsey plus Tyree Kill is greater than Josh Allen plus Stefan Diggs, plus the rest of what the bills bring in their passing game. And so that's ultimately why I end up falling on the Chiefs. I can see myself going back and forth on this one

another 50 times before the game actually kicks off on Sunday. It's why I I prefer putting way more of my betting allowance for Sunday into Green Bay. It's why I actually like playing the total in this game and leaning toward the over 54 rather than playing the side, but I do lean toward the Chiefs being the side to go with here. Do you have any feel on the total? Do you think this game plays the way that people are hoping it'll play and it's a fun back-and-forth high-scoring game? Yeah, I think it should.

I am curious, though, like if you're the bills, you're looking at the Chief's run defense, It's not very good. So I know it's not what you do. You don't run the ball. But I think there is something there to, I think I'm curious that this weekend practice is. Look, you know what? We actually can't run the ball.

It's the reason why we can't establish a run, which would make things easier for you mentioned Stefan Diggs and Josh Allen. So I'm just curious if they're going to keep up with this whole approach. If I'm going to forget their running game, we're going to just do what we do. Or try and catch the Chiefs the law off guard. And actually, that could possibly work. So I'm kind of curious if they do try that this weekend. Do you think that, I mean, there's something to be said, right,

for dancing with the girl who brought you. to the dance. And I mean, obviously for the bills, it's been Josh Allen, it's been Brian Dable spreading things out. It's been, you know, 10 personnel, you know, occasionally not even having one of those guys out there

with Dawson Knox and, you know, just letting Josh Allen do what he does. And I wonder if they would want to change things on the fly like that. I hear what you're saying. And I think that there could be some merit to it. I think they would be more apt to do that if they had both Zach Moss and Devin Singletary at their disposal, though. Yeah, I agree with you.

I mean, obviously, they've shown they can throw the ball against anybody, and Josh Allen's having a great year. So I think that's probably the way to go, trying to get a shootout. But it's hard to win shootouts against the Chiefs, really. It's hard to beat them in general. But I just think that some teams in the past have had success, kind of limiting their possession. And maybe since their run defense is not that great,

maybe that's something you try and do and catch them off guard. I think that would be a bold move, but, yeah, it might just be effective. But I agree with you, if they go in, while guns are boring like they probably will. It should be a high-scoring game. I think there's a chance they can outscore the Chiefs, but I don't think they will, but there's definitely a chance. They're one of the only teams that can do it. I guess the teams I can do it are the four teams that are left, or the three teams that are left in addition to the chiefs.

And I think that's why these four teams are here and the way we should, excuse me, the way that we should continue to see long term year over year over year contenders built in the NFL is by being able to just put up more. And I don't care how many points you put up, because I can put up one more than however many points you put up. I think that's a big reason why these four teams are still here. So we're both on the Chiefs, although, I don't know, like, again, like, there are plenty of bets that I find myself liking this weekend more than Kansas City minus three. One of them, you know, our teaser, the Chiefs, they made it tricky, the Browns made it tricky for us, but our big teaser of the week, we should have been doing this all season, Vic. We'll refine things. We'll get back to it next year. But our big teaser of the week last week came through with flying colors.

Green Bay minus a half, Green Day money line, Chiefs minus four, Chiefs win that game by five. We're feeling it. So, you know, I really like as a teaser for this week, Green Day, they would be plus three, plus two and a half, you know, whatever you end up getting them at somewhere in there. Green Bay plus a field goal, we'll say, just for the sake of conversation. And then Bill's plus nine. For me, that's the teaser of the week. Is there a different way you would go? That sounds good.

We should change the name of our show to the big tease. It'll be good. We might get the wrong sort of listeners, if that's when we'd be. as the title of the show. I don't know if that's exactly what we want to go. We can work out. Any kind of listeners are good. We take all listeners.

It's all good. That's true. That's true, right? We take all the listeners. We can get it. We can probably get some good ad revenue, you know, from that as well. So we'll take, we'll take anyone. We'll take anyone who wants to listen. We can definitely workshop that name.

But that's something that I'm considering is that sort of, is that teaser with the Packers and the bills. Like I said, I love the, not love, but it felt like the right play, or it felt like a worthwhile play. for my money. The Marcos Valdez Scantling first touchdown in the Green Bay, Tampa Bay game. Got that at plus 2,000. So cross your fingers for me that Velda Scantling is the first guy to find the end zone. Have you had time to look for any other of the exotic plays for the weekend or you saving that for something to dive into when we get into Friday and Saturday?

Yeah, I probably do the fight. I like yours. That's a good. I like the idea. I like the whole reason behind it. So I might do MVS. That's a good one. We might be a lot together. But I'll look at it, But I usually save all that stuff for the Super Bowl. But these games, it's obviously a lot to watch for. So I've definitely looked at some odds. Williams had a big game last week for the Chiefs. She's kind of a sleeper normally realized how good he is. So I'm up a guy to look at.

Yeah, right? There are always some fun ones and some fun ways to, you know, sort of jazz up the dance card for what you're going to be doing. Right? When you and I are doing this in the regular season, And we've got 14 games, 15 games, 16 games, all the sides, all the totals. We've got so much to get through. We just have two games this weekend.

So it's a good way to diversify. We'll be sure to throw some more out there over the weekend. And as you said, Vic, we will definitely be getting into that in a big way when we are back for our Super Bowl show. Two weeks from now. We will be off next week, obviously, no football next week. So we will have no version of the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast and Athletic Football Show, at least our version. will not be here with you next week because we really wouldn't have too much to talk about, but we will be back with you for the Super Bowl,

where we will get into whoever it is from the NFC and whoever it is from the AFC, the sides, the total, and all of the props that are available to us as well. Maybe we can get Lady Gaga in a huge, you know, gold dove lapel pin. Maybe that can be something that shows up on our prop board. But whatever it is, we are going to have it covered for you right here in the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast and the Athletic Football Show. Until then, good luck with every single play you make this weekend, I guess unless it is opposed to what Vic and I are going to play.

In that case, thanks for listening. And thanks for listening to all of you out there. We'll be back with you in a couple of weeks. Until then, have a great weekend. Good luck with all your bets as we get ready for what I think is the best weekend of football all season championship weekend. Have a good one. We'll talk to you.

This was the Athletic Football Show.