The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Dak Prescott, Aaron Jones and more fantasy football 'My Guys'

Episode Date: September 1, 2022

The final weekend of fantasy football draft season is upon us. Michael Beller and Brandon Funston highlight the players they're most likely to end up with, and why they've made them priority targets. It's a special edition of fantasy football 'My Guys' on The Athletic Football Show, presented by KFC.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Funston on Twitter: @BrandonFunstonSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Hello, everybody, what's up? Welcome in to the Athletic Football Show, fantasy football edition, presented by KFC. Michael Beller and Brandon Funston here with you. Really excited to be doing this. We are going to be doing this for you through the early portion of the season right here on the Athletic Football Show feed.

We'll be doing this on YouTube as well, so be sure to check us out. Subscribe to the Athletic Football Show. Subscribe to our feed on YouTube, and you'll get all the fantasy football goodness you need with, hey, a little bit of chicken as well to go with your fantasy football. Brandon Funston, man, what's going on? Feels like it's been forever since I've talked to you. Yeah, and I really appreciate you fit me into your lunch plans today.

Very nice to be back and talking with you again. You know, we departed last week from the fantasy side of things, but here we are again. I knew it'd be like a boomerang. You'd throw yourself away, but you just come back around. You were super prescient on that episode, Funston. You said, I've got a feeling. be doing something together in the not too distant future. And oh, one week later, here we are talking to each other about fantasy football. Funston, this is the biggest fantasy football time of

year. This is the final draft weekend ahead of us, Labor Day weekend, always a big weekend for fantasy football drafts. I know I've got a couple, I'm sure, you've got a couple, plenty of you out there still have your fantasy football drafts ahead. So you've been sifting through all the information all summer long preseason is over. Training camps are over. So, it's it's it. We're not going to give you any more that we're going to plant our last flags of the draft season and take you through our guys, my guys, for you here. One guy at every position from me and Funston to get you ready for these final few drafts before the 2022 NFL season kicks off. Funston, let's start at the quarterback position. This is not necessarily your only guy you like at this

position, but who do you find yourself just coming back to draft after draft, ranking after ranking, whatever it might be, who is your guy at quarterback? Yeah, I'm not, I'm sure you're not either most of the time in a one quarterback league. I'm not a quarterback early kind of guy. But you want to get a guy towards the end that you think can finish in the early section, you know, when all is said and done. And for me, that's Dak Prescott. I never have to pay a top eight quarterback price for Dak Prescott. It's usually 9 to 12.

But when does Dak Prescott let you down? Okay, the injury year of 2020, he left after five games, but he left as the number one fantasy quarterback that season. He was on fire. And he returns, not all the way 100%, but throws 37 touchdown passes. He's been a QB1 every season he's been in the league. His worst was QB12. I think that was the second year. I believe every other season he's been inside the top 10.

So look, I'm not too worried about Amari Cooper being gone. They still have C.D. Lamb. They're going to use Tony Pollard Moore in the passing game. They got Dalton Schultz, who's going to be a top six tied in, drafted. Some people think he could be top three. You know, Jalen Tolbert, Michael Gallup will be back. I mean, there will be someone that will still. step up because Dak Prescott will just make it happen.

So, and we might get a little bit more running like we did. We see from him this first three years where he had six touchdowns rushing each of those first three years. He only had one last year. That was by far the lowest of his career. I think we can get three plus out of him in addition to some great passing numbers and finish top ten once again. You had the calf issue on top of the broken ankle from the year before.

So maybe that inhibited his running a little bit with you for the most part. I'm more worried about Tyrant Smith not being there than about the, the loss of Amari Cooper. And so that line, maybe not being what it has been in recent years, concerns me a little bit. But all that's baked in, like you said, you're getting him on average about QB11, anywhere between QB 9, 12, 13, and an individual draft. So there's really nothing to argue with there at, with that Prescott.

If you're taking him QB 4, 5, you're reaching a little bit. But if you're taking him at ADP, really easy to get on board with him. I find myself jumping in the quarterback position, Funston, a tiny bit earlier. than that. So I end up with a whole lot of Joe Burrow. He's quarterback six by ADP on draft season. He's right next door to Jalen Hertz. We're talking less than a pick difference of ADP. And it's a fun way to go. It's a fun dichotomy between those two guys because you've got Jalen Hertz, the fantasy darling, because of the way that he runs the football. We look at the quarterback rankings and year after year, you see guys who can run it as well as throw it toward the top of the rankings. And that's why you find Jalen Hertz being drafted

It is QB 67 by ADP. And then you've got Joe Burrow, a traditionally awesome quarterback who is not really going to run it that much, but is going to get there by throwing for 4,500, maybe 5,000 yards this season and easily eclips 30 touchdown. So it is really a Rorschach test of what sort of guy do you want in your fantasy quarterback when you're looking at Burrow versus Hertz. I find myself coming down on the Burrough side of things because I think there may be more here. Funston. Last year, 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. I think there's another gear here in Joe Burroughs game. He has quite possibly the best wide receiver group in the NFL in Jamar Chase, T. Higgins and Tyler Boyd. I like the addition of Hayden Hurst. I'm not sure if it changes a ton in the bottom line stats for him versus what C.J. Usama did last year, but I do think it gives them a little bit more dangerous of a pass-catching option at the tight end position. And then we know what this team did along the line. Obviously, this was a team that has been desperate to bolster its offensive line for years now. A lot of people thought they would take Pena Sewell over Jamar Chase. They did not.

That worked out a okay for them. And they go out and bring in three new offensive linemen, including a guy who used to protect Dak Prescott and Lyle Collins. So really everything is pointing up for Joe Perrot. And this is a guy who is still very young, who we can expect to get naturally better as he gets older and even more acclimated to the NFL. I just really, really like this guy. I know he's not going to be running a ton.

and you take a little bit of a hit there, but look at what Aaron Rogers is able to do year in, year out. Look what Tom Brady is still able to do year in and year out. You can be a guy who gets 90 plus percent of your fantasy production from throwing it and still be a top five quarterback. I think that's where we find Joe Burrow this season. Yeah, he was borderline top five last year. A lot of things that were problematic about that offensive line last year.

Just looking up quickly, the Bengals had the third most sacks allowed as a team last year. I remember a nine sack. game for Joe Burrow last year. There was some ugly moments. One of the playoffs that they won. Exactly. Exactly. And so you're right.

Like he is, he should still be in the arrows upstage of his career as a thrower. You get an improved offensive line. You get improved acumen just in terms of reading NFL defenses. Take them to the Super Bowl. I mean, we could see a next level passing. But one thing I want to kind of stress is, you know,

it came off of the, came off the big leg injury last year and had like 140 rushing yards. and a couple rushing touchdowns. He is not a statue. Like if they feel better about him health-wise with the legs, he could run for 250 yards. I don't think that's a stretch. I think he could double his rushing numbers from last year,

which, you know, it all adds up. If you're going to throw for almost 5,000 yards, you can add a couple hundred yards on the ground and maybe two to three rushing touchdowns. That could be what does propel him into the top five, and it's very easy to imagine that being something that can happen. All right, Funston. I worked up an appetite talking about Joe Burroughs,

so I'm going to grab myself a chicken fender. year you kick us off at the running back position who you got here all right i got damian harris uh why do i have damian harris because i think he was r b 13 last year on 200 carries 18 catches just a little over a thousand yards the 15 rushing touchdowns with a big number you're getting him in the low to mid 20s right now and this is got shaping up as sort of an uncommon new england backfield where it's going to be all damien harris and all remandre stevenson and this was already a backfield last year that was one of, I believe, seven that had over 500 touches in the backfield. I think that number is going up this year. They have defensive coordinators

playing offensive coordinator. They have a guy in Devonte Park. They brought into bolster their wide receiver core who gets no separation. It's a horrible fit with Mac Jones. This is going to be leaning more on the backfield with less guys to lean on. Damien Harris is going to get his going to get his 200, probably 25, carries maybe more. I think he's going to be used a little bit more in the passing game. I think Ramandre Stevens is also a value. But if you just look at Damien Harris, if he gets his thousand yards again, which I think is the easy part.

DeAndre Swift last year had a thousand yards basically and seven touchdowns, and he was RB19. That's already Damien Harris eclipsing his ADP. I think this is very easy bar for him to get into the top 15. and frankly, Ramandre Stevenson going about RB30, I think there's a decent shot that he finishes close to RB20 as well. To me, this is kind of akin to the Green Bay situation where you might have two running backs that legitimately could be top 20.

We've seen that happen a few times throughout fantasy. Feels like it could be like Green Bay. Feels like it could be what Denver was last year, not quite maybe what Denver is going to be this year, if Giovante does take the step forward in terms of workload that a lot of people, Melvin Gordon, included, are expecting, but definitely feels like that sort of situation where you draft Damian Harris, you draft from Andre Stevenson. Doesn't matter which one of these guys you have, both of them are going to be worth starting.

And yes, even if we get some touchdown regression from Damian Harris, we can regress from 15 to 10. That's a big cut, and you're still feeling awfully good about where Damian Harris is. So a nice pick there. And I'm going to go to that Green Bay situation for my running back here. I love Aaron Jones, Funston. I've always loved Aaron Jones. This is a guy who on a per touch basis has been one of the most effective running. backs over the last few seasons. He has absolutely dominated touchdown looks, and he's had to do that

alongside Devante Adams in Green Bay, a guy who Aaron Rogers trusted a whole lot, of course, all over the field, but especially when they got inside the 10, inside the five. Aaron Rogers has always loved throwing the football in that range of the field. You go back to Jordy Nelson. Devante Adams took that torch from Jordy Nelson, and he was a go-to guy for Aaron Rogers when they got down in that scoring zone. Well, Aaron Jones was still able to score a ton of touchdowns, giving up so many of those looks to DeMonte Adams. And now I have a sneaking suspicion fun to the Aaron Jones is going to be getting some of those looks. This is one of the most effective running backs as receivers in the NFL, not just catching passes out of the backfield, but doing so lined up as a wide receiver. Over the last three years, three big time seasons for Aaron Jones, 196 targets.

He's caught 148 of them for 1,220 yards and 11 touchdowns. six receiving touchdowns last year alongside everything that Devante did. And we know that the Packers are going to want to find ways to get Alan Lazzard involved. Romeo Dubs has had a great summer. Christian Watson may be a little banged up to start the season, but they're going to get him involved. We know that's going to be the case. Robert Tunyon has showed himself to be a capable guy when they get in that scoring zone as well. Aaron Jones, I fundsen, he might be the best receiver on this team.

I think that's absolutely within the realm of possibility. And if he's not, he's certainly the second best pass catcher on this team behind Alan Lazzard. He is the most important player on this offense, not named Aaron Rogers as well. And that's always been Devante Adams over these last few seasons. I know A.J. Dillon's going to come a little bit more at him on the ground. But Aaron Jones is still going to be a great runner for this team and have a huge role to play in the passing game. And it's not like Aaron Rogers is suddenly falling off the face of the earth with Devante Adams in Vegas. So Aaron Jones, the rushing numbers maybe tick down a little bit.

the receiving numbers take way up, I think more than offset that. I am all in on Aaron Jones at ADP. I am too. And I, you know, to speak to the passing numbers, we expect to have an uptick. Bet MGM has his receptions total at 66.5. He's never had more than 52. So they're baking in that happening as well. And I look at Aaron Jones as like discount D'Andre Swift, a more bankable discount

DeAndre Swift because they're probably going to have similar numbers, going to be used in similar ways. Aaron Jones could easily best DeAndre Swift's numbers or at least equal him. And you're getting him five picks cheaper in drafts. About half a round. Yeah. It's like, look, if you're targeting Dandre Swift and you don't get him, like, take the win and get Aaron Jones a few picks later.

You know, like that's just the way it is. So, yeah, I think we're going to see a definite, I would not be surprised if he catches 75 plus balls. David Bactiari should be back for the Packers, if not week one. than early in the season. So also a boon for that offensive line. All right, Funston, you take us to Carolina. DJ Moore pairing up with Baker Mayfield.

Best quarterback he's played with in his career? Yeah, if you think that he's better than Sam Darnold and Cam Newton and Teddy Bridgewater and what, Kyle Allen, there's been some not great passers there. And to me, he's the, you know, everybody is kind of gaga about, and rightfully so, Alan Robinson finally getting freed up and paired with a great arm. And Baker Mayfield is not Matt Stafford, but he is a step up in my mind from what DJ Morris had to deal with. And give DJ more credit the last three years. He's basically been putting up top 20 numbers despite that.

We saw him get 93 catches last year with Sam Darnold playing 12 games and, you know, not a pretty situation. I think he's got a 100 catch upside. Yeah, Christian McCaffrey might have 100 catch upside as well. But are you, would you bet on any other Carolina receiver getting over 50 catches? Like, I think this is just. set up so much. You look at the tight end position, the wide receiver 2 position. Outside of DJ Moore and

Christian McCaffrey, there is just no bankable targets in this offense. And this is not going to be a great team. This is going to be a team that's going to have to throw the ball. So I think we're going to see 90 to 100 catches from DJ Moore. I have him as my very last wide receiver 1.

It's a little bit ahead of ADP. He's going right around wide receiver 15, 14. But I'll be willing to be the guy that reaches a little bit above that to get DJ more because I just think he's going to be very safe. I mean, he's a guy that's played. We haven't really had injury issues with him. Got it very much both in the same school.

But, I mean, I remember it was compared to Stefan Diggs coming in. I think it's an apt comparison. Really good player and should just be heads and shoulders above anybody else on this team in the passing. I mean, wildly consistent over these last three years. 8766, 93 receptions of the yards, that'll blow you away if you don't already know it. 1175 in 2019, 1193 in 2020, 1157 last year, and then four touchdowns each of those three seasons. So, I mean, if there were ever a guy who we could say we can lock in what his floor is, it's DJ Moore. It's 75, 11004.

That is the worst case scenario for him. And if Baker Mayfield does increase the explosiveness and efficiency of this offense, both of which I think are totally in play, DJ Moore could have himself the best season of his career. So we're on the same page there, Funston. I think we're on a tiny bit of a different page with the guy who I'm going to throw it. I remember one of our fantasy football episodes way back when I was still the host of that show. I'm going to go with Terry McLaren. And this is something that Robert May's host of the Athletic Football Show has opened my eyes to hear last year, Taylor Heineke, dead last in the NFL and EPA per dropback on throws deep and outside the numbers.

Where does Terry McLaren do obviously his most dangerous work, but also some of his best work? It's deep and outside the numbers. That's the sort of receiver that can make some special things happen, deep down the field to the outside. And Taylor Hineke just couldn't get him the ball there. And he was still able to put up 1,053 yards, 77 catches, and five touchdowns on 130 targets. He was wide receiver 25.

And we loved a dog Carson Wentz. It's understandable why we do. He reached the extreme heights he did in Philadelphia, has never quite gotten back there, has had some ugly, ugly moments in his career, had the horrible-looking interception that effectively ended in these season last year. He's an easy guy to rip on. but he's also a competent NFL quarterback,

which we just couldn't say about Tyler Heineckee on a weekend and weekout basis. You look back at Michael Pittman one year ago, 88 catches, 188, 1082 yards, and six touchdowns on 129 targets, basically the exact same workload that Terry McLaurin had and was just a tiny bit more effective. He was wide receiver 18. I think we're talking about that as a floor for Terry McLaren this year. I just don't think, like, it is, it is, you know,

we're always talking about the superstar level guys. And of course we talk about those guys for a reason. But there is a huge jump from legitimately bad, which Taylor Heineke was, to league average was Carson Wences. And I think that's going to just redound to Terry McLaren's benefit. I think getting him inside or just outside the top 20 receivers is a real bargain this season. Yeah, I've looked at NFC, NFFC ADP in August and he's wide receiver 20. I am right at ADP with him. I do like Terry McLaren a lot.

In fact, I harkened to, Gilbert Arenas was one of my great calls in fantasy basketball. He was a second rounder. I said, that guy's going to be great. When I remember watching Dwayne Hoskins in his film from Ohio State, what ended up taking, like, drawing my attention more than anything else was Terry McLaurin on the receiving end of most of his production there. And I was like, that guy is a stud. And he, what do you go? Third round, I was like, this guy is going to be a player. So I was in on Terry McLaurin coming into the league.

And I feel good about that. I also feel good. I saw him the other day, like on Twitter, they had a thing where he was basically signing autographs until the line completely was gone at training camp. And I was like, that guy's a good guy, you know. But this is akin to DJ Moore. It's not a huge upgrade at quarterback, but it's an upgrade. And, you know, with Baker Mayfield, you know, in Carolina, I think it's kind of a similar

situation with Carson Wrench. You're not getting the Matt Stafford upgrade, but you're getting an upgrade. And as you mentioned, a guy that does fit Terry McLaren style. So I'm all good at ADP. And if you want to reach a couple extra wide receivers higher than that, I totally get it. All right, Funston. Let's wrap things up here, the tight end position. Who do you got?

Who is your guy or maybe your set of guys at this position? Yeah, I do want one of the top six tight ends. I'm probably not going to be the guy that goes Mark, Andrews, Travis, Kelsey, or Kyle Pitts. Because I just don't want to pay second, third round price for a tight end. But I would pay five, six rounds. So as soon as that next round is George Kittles, Darren Waller. It's Dalton Schultz. Give me any one of them.

But give me the second or third guy. As soon as the first of that group goes, usually you have a round to get one of those guys before they're off the table. So I see that first one go. I'm like, okay, I'd really like to get one of these next two. When they come to me, I will be in on that. So it ends up being Kittle, Schultz, or Waller. And so far, I've had a decent share of all of those guys. And it's kind of worked out that same exact way.

So if I don't get those guys, then T.J. Hawkinson's a guy I would love to get after that. But really, I'm trying to identify one of those four, five, six tight ends. T4 is really like a starting gun at the tight end position. You're totally right. Because then you also throw Dallas Goddard in there. And whether you're going super early with one of the elite guys, whether you're hitting that range you're talking about, I think we pretty much all agree that it's Goddart and Hawkinson who represent the end of the, I feel good about my tight end group.

of tight ends because then you get into guys like Irv Smith and Cole Comette and Mike Gassicki and you know someone's going to have to start those guys and you're not going to be totally heartbroken if you end up being in that group of tight ends but you also acknowledge that this could be someone who I'm dropping and having to play a little bit of waiver wire roulette on at this position because it's those first date that are the guys that we feel comfortable with well are you going to be one of those guys that's going to be the someone that's going to be starting one of those guys Oh, look, here's what I'll say about my guy. I think he's going to have a lot of opportunity.

And that's why I find myself coming to Colcomit a lot if I do end up missing out on those first eight guys. Because I'm generally with you here. Given that we do have eight guys that we feel good to great about and that we at least feel like he's going to do what I expect him to do, I want to be in on that because you could really be in a trouble spot at the tight end position if you don't end up. There's too many guys who are good enough to totally fade the position in ways. we could in years past. If the way a draft falls means I miss out on them,

I find myself landing on Cole Kamet a lot. And here's the reason why Funston. The Bears wide receivers after Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, Equanimia St. Brown, third round pick, Veles Jones Jr. That's it. That's really what

the group of receivers is after Darnell Mooney. Cole Kamet is without question going to have the second most targets on this team. And last year, an absolutely clueless offense, an offense that had no idea what it was doing, what it wanted to do, how to use its rookie quarterback and play him to his strengths. Colquemek gave you 60 catches for 612 yards on 93 targets. I mean, as dreadful a spot as a tight end could find himself, that's really not that bad of production.

Zero touchdowns, totally anomalous when you're talking about catching 60 balls on 93 looks. That is unrepeatable. He's going to push to 100, 110 targets this season. He's going to be in an offense that at least understands what the strengths of its quarterback is and tries to play to those strengths. He is going to be the second most targeted receiver in this offense. And so all that lines up to me to say, you know what? Colquemec could easily be a top 10 tight end. Cole Kamek is that guy who you fall back to if you miss out on the top eight.

And you're like, all right, 60, 650 and four touchdowns, yeah, that'll play for me at this position. And Cole Kamet can easily give that to you. I think he gives you the best shot at it out of any of the guys who aren't in that top. top eight group. And so if that's what I'm going to end up with, I'm totally cool with it. Yeah, you know, I was just while you were talking, I was quickly doing some looking up at the tight end position. The last four years, you know, we've had a top five finish from Dalton Schultz last year, two years ago, Robert Tunyon, three years ago, Darren, and four years ago, Eric Ebron. I don't believe any of those tight ends were top ten tight end picks going into those seasons.

I bet they weren't top. Maybe Waller ended up getting into like the top 12 or 15 because he got that training camp juice but that was that was a hard knocks year i believe so um he might have got a little hard knocks bump on that but i don't think he got much higher than 10 or you know 11 12 but you know there is a guy and someone's gonna probably do that again this year i think col commit is among those leaders for the opportunity you mentioned i think the bears outside of darnal mooney like like the rest of like after the number one like no one has worse depth at wide receiver than the bears in my mind I think that is the number one worst depth wide receiver crew out there. So a huge opportunity for Commet.

And it could be that Commet, you know, some of these guys that I just mentioned did it by a wealth of touchdowns. And that could be Comette that ends up with the 8 to 10 touchdowns because he has a lot of opportunity. It's a big target in the red zone. It ends up being the guy that Justin Fields leans on. That's in play as well. There's a couple ways in which it could work out really well for Cole Commet. Recent president in Chicago, too, with Jimmy Graham, having these like me, reception and yardage seasons, but fine in the end zone six or seven times.

And Cole Komet, obviously at this stage of his career, a far superior pass catcher to where Jimmy Graham has been over the last couple of seasons. Those are our guys, me and Brandon Funston, as we head into this final draft weekend of this fantasy football season. Thanks so much for joining us here on the athletic football show, fantasy football edition presented by KFC. We'll be back with you next week to talk a little week once, starts it. Until then, have a great week. We'll talk to you soon.