The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Decoding 10 team-building plans for the NFL’s new regimes with Sheil Kapadia

Episode Date: March 25, 2022

There are several teams around the league that have had GMs and/or head coaches in place for only a season or two. So what did the most recent free agency frenzy teach us about the mentality these teams have right now when building a roster? Sheil Kapadia joins Robert Mays to break down the front office thinking of the Lions, Bears, Falcons, Dolphins, Jets, Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, & more as they head toward the Draft. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today is Friday, March 25th. I'm Robert Mays, and joining me today, it's my good friend, Shia Kepati. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing well. No monstrous traits to talk of now.

Don't say that. I know. Because now it's going to happen. That's okay. That's fun. On a lot, you know, on a pod, something happens. We have to react. So we'll figure it out if it does.

But looking forward to some more big picture thoughts rather than, hey, this was the transaction that happened yesterday. So obviously we've been reacting to stuff in real time, essentially, for the last week and a half. You know, you were on one of our draft recap shows. Something has happened every day. And I wanted to kind of take a step back and remove ourselves from the conversation about the teams doing a lot of stuff necessarily.

You know, the team's making all the splashy signings because there are a couple teams I found myself thinking about in some quiet moments over the last week. And the two teams that really spurred this on were the lions and the Vikings. I'm like, man, the lions and the Vikings aren't doing a lot. You know, they're not signing all the biggest free agents. But I found myself thinking about, right, how does this fit into their bigger plan? Like, the lions aren't signing a lot of guys. The Vikings just signs the Darius Smith.

How does that fit into what they're trying to be? So I wanted to use those two teams as a way to get into a larger conversation about most of the teams that are within their second or first year with a new regime. That could be coaching staff, front office. The parameters are vague for a reason here. Just talking about teams that are just getting going and trying to figure out what the past week and what their activity and free agency can teach us, what their moves and what their strategies so far, what kind of light it can shed on who they want to be and how they want to build this thing. So we picked 10 teams, 10 teams either in their first or second year, with a new regime of some sorts. And we're going to try to decode what we can figure out from what they've done so far in free agency. Yeah, absolutely. Sounds good. It's not the teams that made the big splashes. It's not the teams that we know are going to be playing in the championship round next season. It's sort of the in between, maybe not quite sure what they're doing or maybe they do have a plan type team. So we'll get into all that.

All right. Let's start with the Lions. So if you look at the Lions moves in free agency so far, not a lot of big ones. You know, their biggest moves that they've made are resigning their own guys. They resign Tracy Walker to a multi-year deal. They resign Charles Harris to a two-year. year deal. Really the only move they made big time outside free agent acquisition was DJ Chark on a one year deal that actually has two void years on it. I remember when the details of that deal came out. I thought it was like one year, 12 million or something. His cap hit this year is only like four-ish million dollars. It's set to be six million next year. So they, for whatever reason, they tacked a couple void years on that deal. I may be reading that wrong, but that's what I had seen. So it's a one-year contract. And they went and signed Mike Hughes on a one-year deal. So these are the sort of kind of quiet, let's fill some holes.

We need starter caliber players that we see from some teams in free agency. And this is on the heels of two extensions they signed in the last calendar year for their own guys. They signed Romeo O'Quara to a pretty big extension and Frank Ragnow to a pretty big extension. You know, we've had so many conversations about the Lions and about where they're at and what this rebuild might look like and what the plan is going to be. But now we're a year into it. Now we're heading into year two, and I think you want to see the steps of how that plan is starting to crystallize. What have you learned from some of the stuff that the Lions have done in this free agency period and under the Brad Holmes regime that gives you a sense of maybe what they're trying to accomplish?

Yeah, I think there's two things. It's like there's that fine line between being patient and being too patient. Like you said, you know, it's like last year, they blew it up. No one expected them to do anything last season. And they were like the most likable 313 in one team. Maybe the only 313 and one team. I think the first year of the Flores Dolphins were also a very likable like five-win team. They were fiery.

It's like, okay, these guys have got something to them. Right. Yeah. You know, if you're a Lions fan, there were some entertaining games in there. There were some entertaining moments. You didn't like just, you weren't looking at them every week going, oh, my gosh, I completely hate this team. But at the same time, you have to remember that they won three games. they were 29th in DVOA, and it's like, you know, now what is your next step?

And so that was one. Like, you can't just, you know, I don't know, can you do that two years in a row? Like if they go three, three and 14 again at this time next season, we're probably not like, hey, they've had a nice two-year run of, you know, six total wins, but they're, you know, we like what they're doing. So, I mean, quarterback's obviously the big thing. And that's what I looked at. And I think they're in a unique situation with their offense because I'm looking at the

depth chart going, it's not like the worst. situation to bring a rookie court, you know, to bring a quarterback into. I know they still need help with wide receiver, tight end. I mean, but their guys are okay. You sign shark. You've got a Monoros, St. Brown. You've got T.J. Hawkinson. The offensive line is like, you know, most rookies going into a team would not have an offensive line that's as talented were as good as the Lions want. So to me, like the big question for them is, are you taking a swing this year or are you taking a swing next year? Are you taking the swing both years? I mean, teams generally don't do that, but it's not the craziest thing to get a couple swings at it.

So those were a couple of the things that really stood out to me as I thought about kind of where they are, how they've approached it, what we've learned about them. The quarterback part of this, even their current quarterback situation, is kind of weird just because they're paying Jared Gough for $31 million this year. And you look at stopgap options around. We know Jared Gough isn't the long-term answer there. And that's sort of misleading. His cap hit last year, I want to say I think it was $10.6 million.

So if you just average those two out, it's $20 million a year for a starting quarterback. which that's palatable. You can talk yourself into that, even if that $30 million is blinking in lights right now for Jared Goff. But you look at the other kind of financial aspects of this. I'm going to try to talk you into why they're still being patient, is what I'm going to try to do here. You still have $20 million in dead money this year for Trey Flowers and Jamie Collins.

They're still getting out from under some of those deals where Matt Patricia got to shape the defense in his image. And guess what? It did not look good by the end. So there's still some of that. where they're chipping away at the former foundation of this. If you look at the guys we assumed would be the pillars of this team moving forward, or the guys I think Detroit would hope would be, O'Quara and Frank Ragnam missed 12 games last year.

Jeff Okuda missed the entire season last year. Melfone, with their third round pick, the corner, missed a huge chunk of last season. He got hurt literally in the year. I mean, there are pieces of this team that I think they want to rely on that they didn't even have for all of last season. So just by getting those guys back, you would assume there's some sort of improvement. And I can understand not wanting to jump the gun, right? You bring in Chark, you bring in Mike Hughes, guys like that to say, these are stopgap options, these are one-year deals. And even with the Chark money, if you draft the receiver at 32, you didn't give enough money to DJ Chark to let Chark take away reps from that receiver.

You're not blocking any guys. You're giving the Jerry Jacobses of the world, who's also hurt right now. but looked really good as an undrafted free agent last year, the chance to shine because you're not just papering this stuff over with free agents that are unnecessary as part of your process and as part of your timeline. So in that way, I can understand it where you say, all right, one more year, we're not going to be very good. We have no reason to commit to this next year when we can fully get out from under

some of these deals, when we can just say, all right, now we have two first round picks again in 2023. Can we move up for a quarterback? Can we surround that quarterback? I think one more year of a holding pattern, if your ownership group is okay with that, and that's understood as part of your timeline, I think that's okay with how the lions are doing this. Yeah, I think that's fine. I mean, the thing you worry about when a team takes a couple of years is, you know, the culture and the habits of losing. And those could surface.

Now, all signs are pretty positive, I think, in that respect with this team last year, despite winning three games, it seemed like that stuff was all positive. So I think that's fine. I mean, you know, we've talked about it on this show. It's been the story of the offseason that when you don't have the Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Allen, whoever else who want to throw in there, what's your plan for getting one of those guys? And so if your plan is, we don't feel like we want to take a swing on one of these guys this draft, which again, you know, you might say maybe you don't do that at two.

Maybe it's moving back up in the first round. If a guy drops and you say, man, we didn't expect them to be there. You can consider that. They have the 30-second pick as well. Right. So you can just, you know, if a guy drops to 20, who you didn't think was going to be there and you can move down. It's kind of, you know, when the Ravens took Lamar, people forget now they took what, Hayden Hurst first in the first round and then they traded up to get Lamar, which sounds insane to say now. But if there's some type of situation like that, like my thing is you have to swing on the guys with upside.

And so you can look at, let's just throw Malik Willis out there and say, you know, we're not sold on everything. Our internal evaluations say, you know, there's X percent chance. that he's going to reach this level. But man, if he reaches this level, we are so excited about what we have. And so you have to weigh all those things and say, all right, if a guy slips or if he's there at 32, then we can think about taking him. And if he's not, if you're just like, you know what, we scouted these guys. We just don't love them.

Then I do think anything you can do to accumulate more assets for next off season. Like you mentioned, they already have two first. That's a good place to be. Can you trade down a little bit more, even if it means picking up picks for next year? so that next off season, whether it's, hey, Kyler Murray's unhappy or, hey, Bryce Young is awesome. Let's give up all these picks to get him. You're in position to do that. I think that's what a lot of these teams have to look at.

Just put yourself, if you don't love it this year, that's fine. Put yourself in position next year to make a move where you're not saying, man, we really like this guy, but we just don't have the assets to get them. I would love if they trade it down from two. Like if there's, let's say Hudson goes number one, argument's sake. And they don't like any of the quarterbacks enough to take them number two overall, based on evaluations and based on what other people have said, they probably shouldn't like any of the quarterbacks enough to take them second overall.

Is there a team that loves one of the tackles that's potentially out of range that just loves one of the tackles that you can call and say, you can move up from whatever number it is to two. We'll take your first next year. And there's a chance that doesn't happen. A lot of those moves are for quarterbacks typically. But if they could just stockpile even more assets having that second overall pick, because the one spot that is apparently just chalk full of players in this draft at that exact place in the draft, it's offensive line, which they have two offensive tackles. So if you could get out of there, they're in such a unique position.

It's like a team that doesn't need a quarterback that's picking in the top five. That's kind of what this is, just it's less valuable. So if they can do something with that and maybe even pick up more picks for next year to just have that ammunition to potentially go get the guy when they have 90 million. dollars in salary cap space next year when they already have an extra first round pick. What they do there and how that fits into their timeline is something I'm going to be watching pretty closely. Yeah, absolutely. That would make all the sense in the world if they could move down, find a partner,

accumulate more assets. Again, just position yourself, you know, build up, develop the young guys this year and then put yourself in position next year to really make a big move because you can't be patient. Like year three, you can't just be patient again. I don't think that I think that usually doesn't fly. So we know, we have an understanding what the Lions timeline is, right? They're slow play in this thing. They're letting it marinate and you can understand that.

I thought the Vikings might be in that place with a new regime taking over. Cuezado Fomenza, Kevin O'Connell. You have this group in Minnesota that had kind of tried to break through for so long with the same core. And there is a feeling. It's like, all right, maybe it's just time. It's time to move on from that approach. It's time to move on from this group of players. Well, that doesn't seem to be what's happening.

Vikings seem to be trying to push this thing toward the finish line rather than pushing it to the starting block. Are you surprised at all by the way that they have approached this in Minnesota? I really am. I mean, the thing I wrote down for what we learned is that the moves of the new regime look a lot like the moves of the old regime. Yeah. I thought this was going to be a clean break. I mean, Vikings fans were just so fed up with the Kirk Cousins, Mike Zimmer experience, and rightfully so that I thought, okay, this is it.

Sometimes you've got to take your medicine. it's not going to be pretty move on from cousins going a different direction and they didn't do that they extended it actually where now you're tied to kirk cousins for the next two years he's got the no trade clause it's not like one of those fake things where you can move off from him after next season now you're tying yourself to him for this season and next season you're signing guys like zadarius smith to you know initially reported 14 million dollars per year we haven't gotten the details on that yet right right we don't know yeah maybe maybe it's less than that you're holding you know didn't Neil Hunter is a, you know, he's a player in his prime, so I have no issue holding on to him. But, you know, you could have gone in a different direction, is my point. I mean, Harrison Phillips, Jordan Hicks, like you're signing these veterans on defense where I'm going, wait, what direction are they actually going in? And Arifasan wrote a great piece, I think it was today, on the athletic, trying to make sense of this.

And I guess, you know, Quessio dofo Mensa called it a competitive rebuild, which again, I remember writing last year that the Vikings are doing like a slow rebrand. build or something. It felt like the exact same things where, all right, they're shedding some stuff. It feels like they want to go in a different direction, but they still want to be competitive. And so I'm kind of confused about what they're counting on here. I mean, I know it doesn't always have to be one or the other where you totally blow it up or you totally go for it. But it does feel like of all the franchises in the NFL, this is one that's just been stuck in the middle year after year after year. I mean, there were literally eight and nine and 16th in DVOA last

season. Could you talk me into them going 10 and 7 this year? Yes, but I don't know. Is that exciting? Maybe it is. I mean, I don't know what their motives are, but I'm just kind of confused about the way they've gone about it and the way they've extended it another year here. So let's look at some of the moves.

They signed Harrison Phillips three years, $19.5 million. That pretty much slots in for what they were paying Michael Pierce. Same role. The money they saved by moving on from Michael Pierce, that's what they're paying Harrison Phillips. He's a $3.8 million cap at this year. Jordan Hicks, two years, $10 million. I mean, that's a fine.

They needed another linebacker after moving on from Anthony bar, you can understand that. The Zadaria Smith one is the aggressive move. We'll see what those numbers end up looking like, but that's a real contract for a real free agent. So those are mostly, those are the three main moves that they've made. Siding cousins to the extension is the declaration of intent.

That is the, we are not moving on. We are not totally blowing this up. We feel like we're better off with him than without him. And then they also, they decided not to trade Daniel Hunter, which you alluded to. So he's going to be on the team. They restructured his deal in order to create some much needed salary cap space. I believe

he was on the hook for 26 million against the cap this year before they restructured that roster bonus. So if you look at it right now, based on what I was seeing today, he has an $11 million dead cap charge in 2024. He's not on the team that year. They're already going to have to endure that. And then they're doing the same kind of thing with Harrison Smith and with Adam Thielen. They restructured both of their deals to create a little bit more wiggle room. And you can talk yourself into that being necessary in order to make the moves you need to to stay competitive. but it brings you back to the same place that they've been for a while. And there's no way to know this.

And I remember talking to Mike Sando about this when we were thinking about and projecting what the Vikings offseason might look like and saying, you don't know what's being dictated by ownership. And for even though the new GM is there and even though the new coach is there, you know, Rob Brzynski, who is in some sort of executive role there and has done their contracts forever, still in place. You know, we have no idea how much actual power these guys have and what the plan and what the directions are from the people at the top.

It's like we don't want to tear it down. We want to stay competitive. And that's how you find yourself in this moment. So Quazzi said earlier last week, and the quote that you were alluded to at the reef, and I wanted to read it. He said, I think when people look at teams, they sometimes do it in a very binary way.

They ask, are you either all in or tearing down in rebuilding? And I don't really look at the world that way. The way we look at it is we're trying to navigate both worlds. We're trying to live in today and tomorrow, or the competitive rebuild, which is what you said. it's just tough to do that. I mean, it's really difficult to do that. And, you know, I understand looking at this team and saying, all right, if we get better

offensive coaching, what could we be on that side of the ball? We still have Justin Jefferson. We have a workable quarterback. We have a really good running back. We have a young offensive line. If we get more from that group, can this look like a different team? But that's a risky bet that you're making. I mean, you're putting a lot on the changes in your coaching staff and your culture and all

of the other things that are coming into that building because you're betting on the same group of players to get different results. And that's the other thing. I mean, I would buy that more if instead of Zadaria Smith and Harrison Phillips and Jordan Hicks, you told me they addressed the offensive line. And, you know, they added a couple pieces there and they feel like, man, if we were just a couple offensive linemen and maybe another past catch, whatever, away from having a really good offense with this new, with Kevin O'Connell leading us.

but they didn't do that. I mean, we'll see what they do in the draft, but they haven't made any changes. I mean, unless I'm missing any, I don't think they've made barely any changes or no changes at all on the offense. And so now, like you said, you're putting really a lot of faith in the coaching.

And maybe, you know, we've seen it before where a play caller and a schemer can make a difference. And he can take the same guys who were there before and really improve your offense. So if that happens, and O'Connell's like the next great play caller in the NFL, then they will be proven right. That is, again, a big leap, I feel like, to kind of make here when you have the same talent as the previous year.

Yeah, and they're probably worse on defense. I mean, you look at it, they're missing corners from last year's team. They weren't stars by any stretch, but they have holes there now. And that's the problem is that they just didn't have much financial wiggle room to work with. So you're betting so hard on any sort of offensive improvement overcoming a potential slip and a probable slip to some degree on defense. So it's just a tough thing. And also, it's not like Harrison Smith and Adam Thielen are 27 years old, where you're betting on them in the middle of their prime. Harrison Smith's going to be 33 this year.

Adam Thelan's going to be 32. So none of the restructures are crazy in terms of the burden that they're going to create here over the next couple years. You'd hope that you can outrun whatever dead money is going to be left over with the accounting tricks that you're having to do. But by the time this roster is going to be super, super competitive, those guys are probably going to be in their mid-30s. So it's just a tough tightrope to walk. And I don't think anybody can really pull it off. Well, that's the thing. I mean, everybody would say, well, what was the alternative?

The thing with them is there kind of was an alternative. I mean, we saw what these quarterbacks went for? I mean, I don't know. What do you think Kirk Cousins would have netted if they said we're trading Kirk Cousins? Could they have gotten a first round pick for Kirk Cousins? I would have been curious how the money worked out because I believe his base salary was $35 million.

I mean, Wenz had 28 and got a third and a third and a second. And so it's, you know, imagine if you were saying, hey, we'll pay 10 million of cousins. I got to feel like somebody's giving up some pretty good. That's a second round pick. That's what I proposed for the Colts before and all this stuff happened. I was like, all right. So let's say you'll pay half of it. We'll give you a second round pick. I think a team might have been willing to do that.

And then you have an out. Then you go sign your version of what Marcus Mariotta is. And you figure out what this season ends up looking like. Yeah. And they had other guys too. I mean, Jordan Rodrig, you know, she was reporting that the Rams were calling about DeNeal Hunter. You know, I'm sure a team would have liked Adam Thielen. Like they had guys where if you're just like, all right, you know, the previous regime put us in a tough spot.

Let's get out. Kind of like what we just talked about, you know, with the Lions or we'll talk about with some of these next teams. Like they had some assets where they could have been like, let's get out of that. Let's go in a different direction. Let's scout these quarterbacks. Maybe it's not this year. Maybe it's next year. But we're going to build it in our own image.

And it's not that. It's the next two years. Your team's going to look a lot like the teams you watched over the last three or four years in terms of personnel. Again, maybe it'll be better. Maybe coaching will make a difference. Maybe you just say, hey, we want to be competitive and we don't want to win six games. Like, that's fine too. But that has, you know, that's been different than what I expected from the Vikings this off season.

Let's stick with the NFC North. Let's talk about the Bears. This is to be careful what you wish for a sort of situation here so far in free agency. For years, I've been asking for. a more pragmatic patient front office that doesn't make rash decisions and jump into things willy-nilly. And now we have a team that here are the Bears free agents that they've signed so far. After the Larry Ogun Joby signing did not work out because of a fail of physical,

which I think I'm okay with. Here are the guys that they've signed. Justin Jones to a two-year $12 million deal. Al-Qaedain Mohammed, former Colt Al-Qaedain-Mohmed, Lucas Patrick and Byron Pringle. that's the hall for the Chicago Bears and Free Agency. The most money they gave out was the Justin Jones, two years, $12 million. I am very, again, this is what you want, patience and a plan and all that stuff. But I'm just sitting there watching them and just thinking to come on, do something meme, where I'm like, poke and Ryan Poles.

Like, what are we going to do here? So I understand it, but I think that there are a lot of things to kind of chew on here. So what do you think you've learned from the first month or so of the Ryan Poles regime in Chicago? Yeah, I said they're going to be patient. Maybe too patient. I don't know. No, I'm with you. I mean, certainly, like, I thought the Kaleel Mac trade was a smart move.

I mean, that was an indication to me that they realized where they are as a franchise, and you look at the roster, and you're just like, all right, you know. I've had no picks. Yeah, yeah, they absolutely, I thought that was absolutely the smart move. So I actually took that as an encouraging sign. You have an honest evaluation of your roster. That's a good thing. And so I think to me, they want to kind of follow.

the bill's blueprint. I thought the bills rebuilding job under Brandon Bean is probably the best rebuilding job, I don't know, the last 20 years or whatever. And so step one was get rid of bad contracts and get your cap in order so that you can actually do something. Again, the MAC trade is part of that.

Number two is decide on a young quarterback. Now, the bills had to do that with their new regime and Josh Allen. You would presumably say the bears already have done that. So that's nice. They have a guy in-house and Justin Fields. And number three is surround the guy with necessary talent so that he doesn't develop bad habits so that you get a good evaluation of him so that you put him in position to succeed. And so if you're a Bears fan and you're like, again, yeah, we'd like

you guys to do something. That to me is the area where you say, all right, you know, they could do a little bit more on the offensive line. They could add another pass catcher here. So let's see what they do here in the next wave of free agency. I mean, they might make some smart value signings. You know, I don't want to give Lucas Patrick like more buzz on this podcast. But like I thought that was a smart, you know, that's a smart signing. offensive lineman, even Byron Pringle. I thought that was fine. He can play for you if you need him to play for you.

If you draft over him, that's fine also. He can provide some depth. So I'm kind of like, you know, I feel like we've learned that they're going to be patient. They took an honest evaluation of their roster. And now I'm kind of just in wait and see mode. Like make sure fields is in position to succeed as much as possible in week one so that you can get a good evaluation of it. My big question here is how do you balance patience with giving your quarterback a chance

and putting him in the right circumstances. And I think that is what the needle that they're going to have to thread here. So what does the offensive line look like? What is the final plan? So they signed Ryan Bates to an offer sheet today, the former bill, which it's funny. I was talking to one of our Bears writers today. The guys are turning Ryan Bates into Quentin Nelson. That's what the Bears free agency is right now.

Treating him like he's an all pro guy. He was pretty good in some late season spot duty for the bills. But that's the aisle the Bears are shopping in here. So you hope to remember. make the offensive line and say, all right, let's say Tevin Jenkins is your left tackle. You have Cody Whitehares, your left guard, you have Lucas Patrick as your center, Ryan Bates is your right guard, you figure out what the right tackle situation ends up looking like.

Maybe Jenkins is over there and you sign a stop gap like at Eric Fisher or Dwayne Brown or whoever and you make the offensive line. The receiving positions are still the biggest concern here, right? You have Darno Mooney, Byron Pringle, Cole, Commet, and I mean, that's really it. Equamity is St. Brown's side for less than a million dollars. I mean, that's not a guy that you expect to be a rotation player in your offense. I just don't want them to get to a place where those two picks that they have in the second round, they feel like they have to come away with a pass catcher from that.

Like, were they in on Juju Smith-Schuster? Like, the guy like that, where you're not stretching yourself too thin, you're not committing to a guy that's not on your timeline, but you're still giving your quarterback a shot. That's, I hope, the balance that they can strike here over the next couple weeks. because the lesson that I've learned is that they are going to be patient, and I appreciate that. I think that they understand what needs to be done here to dig out from under this, but I also think that you have to find the right middle ground to not put your quarterback in a shitty spot, because the difference between the bills and the Bears is that 2017 was Brandon Bean and Sean McDermott's first year there.

They drafted Josh Allen a year into that in 2018. We're going into year two of Justin Fields' rookie contract, and I understand if you're Chicago sitting there and saying, all right, we can have $130 million in cap space or something insane next year. And we have our full arsenal picks. And that's when we can really go after this. But I want to make sure that you're developing and evaluating the quarterback. So by the time year three comes around, you have a good sense of him.

And I just hope they get to that place. Yeah, Smith Schuster, the DJ Shark deal, like that type of thing would have made to. Exactly. You know, maybe there will be a Will Fuller, you know, one year. There are still guys out there. There are still ways to make that happen. I just hope that they don't go in and saying, all right, we need a guy with whatever pick they have in the second round.

That, to me, is the only concern there. Yeah, you don't want to have a comment. You don't want to be having a conversation in week four of the athletic football show going, man, Justin Fields has no shot. Did you see that yet yesterday? I mean, no one's getting open. He's getting hit on every other play. Like, that's really should be their number one focus,

which, you know, those defensive linemen they sign, like I'm not going to crush those. those are fine, but even those I was looking at going, you know, maybe you have Matt Eberflus. Like, isn't he supposed to be able to do more with less? Like maybe put some of that money, take some flyers on the offensive players. Again, it's not a complete picture. So let's see what they do here in the weeks and months ahead. If it's Jarvis Landry, if it's Emmanuel Sanders, I mean, guys like that, who knows if they'd want to come to Chicago at this stage of their career considering the state of the offense, but just some sort of competency at those

past catcher spots, I think would go a long way. All right. Let's get to the Atlanta Falcons, another team in this conversation and another team that has not spent very much in free agency over last couple of weeks. Here are the Falcons of flashy free agent moves. Casey Hayward and Cordell Patterson both to about two-year 11-ish million-dollar deals. And then obviously the contract that they gave to Marcus Mariotta, which is pretty much a one-year deal. I mean, the guarantees are all in the first year. They can move on after this season. I mean, they've done absolutely nothing, which is not surprising because they don't really have any money.

and they're a team that's also heavily rebuilding. So what do you make of where the Falcons are right now? Nate and I touched on this a little bit when we talked about the Matt Ryan trade and what could have driven that. I'm curious what you think of Atlanta and the moves that they've made recently. Well, I think if you want to go glass half full,

you can say they're not delusional about how last year went. And that's kind of important. I mean, there were 7 and 10 last year. We've heard coaches and GMs talk themselves into all kinds of things. They could say, oh, you know what? We just upgrade a guard here. a receiver there and we can win, you know, we can get a wildcard spot next season.

So they didn't do that. So I think that's a positive. If you want to be negative, I think they're going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL next season. I think that's okay, though. Yeah, it's okay. The roster is in bad shape. That's why you move on from Matt Ryan.

You know, again, I thought that was a fine move to make. Also, it saves cash. It saves cap. You get a pick out of it. Mariota, great. My offseason mantra has been, do not overinvest in competency. at quarterback, they did not do that. Six and a half million dollars.

He's not going to kill you next year. It'll be fine. And now you have to come up with a plan for what you want to do at quarterback. You know, the supporting cast, it's different. Like the Lions, it's weird to say. Like put a rookie quarterback into the lion situation is much more appealing than putting a rookie quarterback into the Falcon situation right now, in my opinion, with some of the issues they have. So I think they're another team, kick the can down the road a year.

I mean, if you like a guy this year, that's fine. But other than that, accumulate some picks as much as you can, trade down. You have five top 100 picks this year. You have the number eight overall pick. Can you get some assets for next off season? So again, Kyler Murray, rookie, whatever, so that you're in position to pounce on a quarterback next off season.

I think that's kind of where they're at right now. I would just hope that we're one of the worst teams in the league. I mean, I would just kind of sit there and say, you know what? If we go 2 and 14, 2 and 15 this year, that's fine. because my read on this, what I've learned is that the way they've handled this, they always understood it was going to be a multi-year process to get where they wanted to go. You can criticize some of the things they did last year, whether it's not trading Matt Ryan last year or restructuring his contract.

It's not like they were restructuring these guys to go out and spend lavishly in free agency. The biggest contract they handed out last spring was to Mike Davis. It was a two-year, $5 million deal. They were doing this stuff so they could field an NFL team. And Matt Ryan, if they had traded him last spring, these numbers are hard to find because after all the restructures, it's tough to go back in time in a time machine and find contract numbers. I believe it would have been $44 million in dead money if they had traded him last year. And so I understand not wanting to do that and kicking it down the road a little bit because you're no worse off, in my opinion. Could you have drafted a quarterback last year?

Yes. But we talked about this last week, you still would have been in a terrible situation. and you're essentially wasting the first year and potentially second year of that guy without a lot of financial wiggle room to build around him. So now you've hit the reset button. You're here. You have an extra second round pick this year with the Julio trade. You have an extra third round pick from the Matt Ryan trade.

Those aren't the holes you probably would have liked. But this is the reset button. If you look at it, if they move on from Mario de next year, which I assume they will if they find their quarterback in one of the next two drafts, they'd have $120 million in cap space. This is the reset. Like it was going to take time to get to this place, but that's where they are. And nothing that they've done has gotten ahead of that process.

And that's what I appreciate about it. Yeah, as I was doing the exercise, you know, preparing for the pod. The two teams where I'm like, man, they did like inherit a mess where the Falcons and the bears. Now, the bears at least had a quarterback, but it was just like, you know, and actually I'm saying those are the two. As we go through, I might be like, oh, it's actually like six of the ones we mentioned. I'm kind of like, all right, you know, their hands are just kind of. tie. There's not a lot you can do. So yeah, I think it's fine. You know, again, sometimes when you

lose that badly, you worry about the culture and sort of the tone you're setting and all those things. So that should probably be a focus this year. Maybe that's why Marioita fits in. I mean, he was getting a lot of love from former teammates when they signed him about what a great guy. People love him. Which I think is important. I think that's an important consideration when you're trying to figure this out. And when you don't want to be an utter disaster and you want to try to maintain some semblance of morale in the building. Having a stopgap quarterback that people really seem to like, I think is worth it. So we'll see what the quarterback plan looks like.

I mean, they had like 17 people at Desmond Ritters Pro Day this week. I mean, they had like the GM, the head coach, like five position coaches. It might have just been a coincidence for a lot of different reasons. They don't need to overdraft the quarterback this year. If I were them, I would just say, all right, if we don't like one of these guys, there's no need that you don't have to solve your quarterback problem right now. now. This is something that hopefully you can do next year with a top five-ish pick. That that's how I would be thinking about this. I don't think that I wouldn't get itchy with trying to find my guy just because we don't have a long-term plan as it currently exists.

Yeah, it's the fine line between if you like the upside, take a swing because you are picking eighth. And so if you like the upside, take a swing and then also don't talk yourself into something. So listen, if they do the scouting and, you know, scouting, coaching, everybody's on the same page. And they say, Man, we love Desmond Ritter, and they want to take them. I wouldn't crush him for that because when you don't have a quarterback, you can pretty much justify taking anybody who you believe can be the guy, even if external evaluations might disagree with you. All right. Let's get to the Miami Dolphins.

A team we've talked a decent amount. I mean, this is a team on the opposite under the spectrum, right? One that has gone in understandably at this stage. I mean, you look at the guys that they've signed. Obviously, Toronto Armstead of the big deal. Went out and got Connor Williams, Cedric Wilson, Chase Edmonds. Not big money players. but then the splash comes yesterday.

They go and they trade for Tyree Kill. They give up a ton to go get him, sign him to a market setting extension. And now it just kind of feels like, all right, like this is it. Like whatever the rebuild process looked like for Miami and all of the resources that they had, what I've learned and what this feels like to me is we have to get something out of those. Like those picks and all of that space has to turn into players. And now that's what you see. Like this is to a certain degree, the fully form.

Miami team that has been a few years in the making. Yeah, I mean, my thing for what we learned about them this offseason is there's enough in place to support Tua. And now let's see what he looks like. I mean, you hired an offensive coach who by all account is a very smart guy who, you know, the best version of Mike McDaniel is he's putting, you know, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. And he's putting guys in position to succeed.

And he's maximizing the talent available to him. So now he's got to go out and prove he can do that. but you signed the left tackle in Armstead, you got Tyree Kill, you had, you know, you traded up for Jalen Waddle just last year. Like, this is not a bad situation for a quarterback to be in. And so now, you know, you have to see if the quarterback you drafted is the guy you were hoping he was going to be. If he's not, then you have to revisit it again after next, after this season. But it's kind of the opposite of what we said about fields. Like, we could be talking this time next season and going, man, we don't really have a good evaluation of fields because look at, you know, last year,

man, nothing around him. That's not going to be the case with Tua. And that's worth something because you want to have a strong feeling one way or another. If he lights it up, man, there's nothing else. You know, it's great for the franchise. If he doesn't, if he's on the other end of that, well, now you can explore. We can see Teddy by week eight if he's on the other end of that. Exactly. And then you explore other options next off season. That's not ideally how you want it to happen, but at least you're going to get some clarity, I think, in 2022 from what you have a quarterback. I totally agree. And one of the other things I've learned is over the last year or so, they've gotten a little antsy, you know, and I, and I, and I

get that. You don't want to be rebuilding forever. You know, at a certain point, all that money and all those picks start to burn a hole in your pocket. It's human nature. But if you look at the moves they've made in the past 12 months or so, they move up for Waddle. They trade a first round pick to go up and make that pick. They trade it up in the second round

to go get Leah Micaheimberg last year. And then you make the Tyree kill trade. I mean, they want to kind of push this thing along. And now we're here. And there's really not a lot of other places for this thing to go. until next year. They don't pick until 102 in this draft because they traded their third round pick

in this year's draft to move up for Eichenberg last year. So this is the team that we're going to get until next spring when they had those two first round picks and potentially do they need to use those on a quarterback. So that's the question to me. Is two of the guy? And then the secondary question I have, I hope he succeeds. He seems great. Nothing but good things I've heard about him.

people just kind of penciling in Mike McDaniel as Kyle Shanahan as far as what this offense is going to look like, that's a little bit putting the car before the horse to me. We've seen a lot of guys on staffs get chances and it doesn't look the same. I think he could be great, but I'm not necessarily willing to just write that in as a guarantee that the Dolphins offense is going to look like the Niners offense. Yeah, I mean, if you're a Dolphins fan, you're probably like, you know, hey, you know, don't be a Debbie Downer or you're reading my. you know, Tyreek Hill grade analysis and you're going, can we please just have this?

But I mean, the fact is, and again, it's going to, it'll be exciting for you one way or the other. You have an unknown a coach. You have an unknown a quarterback. You have a wide receiver who's being paid at the top of the market and is not going to be playing with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid anymore and might not be getting, you know, the same types of looks he would want to get. You have an offensive line that is improved, but still, I mean, I don't know what you say mediocre to below average probably overall, right? I mean, I don't think anyone's penciling them in to be a top five, top 10 offensive line. I don't even think we know who's going to start at those spots. Right.

I mean, the guys that they brought in this spring, we know those guys are going to start. But how those other spots shake out with Austin Jackson and the other guys that they've drafted high. I mean, who knows what that's ultimately going to look like. I don't think you can guarantee anything over there. Defensively, we'll find out how much is Brian Flores just a fantastic defensive coach who made you look really good or is it just talent? and I know they have the same defensive coordinator now. So, like, I don't know. I feel like it's really,

there might not be a middle ground for them next year. I sort of feel like it's either they're going to make a nice leap and be in the playoffs or that thing has the chance to be a disaster. It doesn't feel like an eight and nine type team for me, but maybe I'll be wrong. That's so funny because I think that's exactly what they are. Really? I think they're just a middle of the road team

that has put a really good collection of players in place on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a bit of a question mark. But other than that, the skill position players are explosive. Their defense still has a lot of good pieces. I mean, guys like Javon Holland are lost in this. You know, it's easy to get excited about the new guys, but defensively, they have a lot of solid players in place. So I could see them being, you know, a top 12-ish defense and an offense

where like, oh, man, this is really well designed and this is exciting. And the quarterback is just not that good. And you're sitting there and they're the 17th best offense in the league by DVOA. and they're sitting there in the middle and you think, all right, we have one move left to make. That's what this feels like to me is that they wanted to make sure this thing was polished off outside of the quarterback. And it kind of has that feeling. You need the quarterback to take it as the rest of the way in that case because you've traded away so many picks. But I do think that's kind of where they found themselves.

Yeah, they've got those picks next year. Like you said, it's not like they gave up everything to get the quarterback. And so if it doesn't work out, they're not in like, it's not kind of the end of the world. I mean, like you said, they have pieces around him where it could be an attractive destination for someone else if he doesn't make kind of the Josh Allenish 30-year leap. Yeah, I don't see that happen. I think too. I'm trying to be nice.

I mean, I just ripped them for fun. I think he could be fine. And I don't, I'm not trying to be mean. I think he could be fine. I do have faith in the guys running that offense that they will put him in a position to succeed. Jimmy Garapolo was like fifth in the NFL in EPA per dropback among quarterbacks last year. To me, this is not about the level of production you're going to get.

I don't think it's going to be that, but I think it could be more than acceptable. But if you look at the rest of the league and we keep coming back to that conversation, but what you need a quarterback to get your team over the top, acceptable and above average when put in the right circumstances, that's not what I'm after. I think he could be fine, and I think the offense could be solid. But I just have a feeling that I'm going to be left wanting more when this season is over. That's it. Yeah.

All right. Let's stick in the AFC here. What do you think that you've learned about the New York Jets in the first two years or so of the Joe Douglas era here? What I wrote down is nothing they do matters if they got Zach Wilson wrong. Like I'm going through the thing. Oh, you know, Jordan Whitehead, nice, you know, okay. nice move oh look at that you know Mackay Beckton comes back

he kind of fix some stuff on the offensive line like if I'm just looking at moves in isolation that they've made over the past two seasons specifically in free agency I'm sure most of them you know when I did the analysis are getting bees or what like they're most of them are totally fine and

it's not going to matter at all everyone's going to be gone and everyone's going to be disappointed if the quarterback is it if you got that evaluation wrong and so let's see I mean they're not like loaded around Zach Wilson, but certainly I think they're competent enough. The offensive line has improved. Maybe you're probably going to add some pass catching help in the draft along with Elijah

Moore and Corey Davis. Like there's enough there. I thought Michael LeFleur, I mean, Michael LaFleur, when you watch the other quarterbacks play last year, you're kind of like, ooh, you know, they're looking a little like this offense looks not bad at all. Like I was kind of impressed with what he was doing last year. And so Wilson was obviously up and down, had more downs than ups. Now it's year two and better supporting cast.

And like, we just have to sit back and see if he's good or not. I don't know. The first draft class looks like, I totally understand because I feel pretty similarly. The first draft class was a disaster, right? I mean, the Denzel Mims, Ashton Davis part of this, and we'll see what happens with Bechtin. There's a chance that's just a wash.

That was for a different staff and occasionally that can happen, where now you're trying to put a square peg in a round hole with a new coaching staff and it just doesn't work out. other than that draft class, he's done most of the things I'd want a GM to do. The signings that they've made this spring, we've talked about him. I think they all make sense. I think they're all reasonable. The guys that they went after, the way that they're shaping this thing, how they've accumulated picks.

They have four picks in the top of 38. So it's not like they're spending all this money in free agency, and that's how they're trying to build this thing. They absolutely have chances to find cost control players that impact position. next month. They have two top 10 picks. They could come away after the 38th pick easily with a top

shelf cornerback, a real addition to the past catching core, another high caliber offensive tackle, and a pass rusher. That's not far-fetched all on rookie deals. Their team has a chance to really go places. I mean, there's a long

way for this to go based on the resources that they've had and what they have to tap into, and none of it matters. if they get the quarterback wrong. That's what it feels like. He's done so much right in the process after that first draft. And if they get the quarterback wrong, we're not going to remember any bit of that process.

And then the Mackay Beckton thing is sort of hanging over them also. I mean, I have no idea. Is he going to be their starting left tackle for the entire season next year or not? If you draft another guy in fourth overall or whatever and you feel good about that guy, you say, all right, Mackay, you battle it out with George Fent for that right tackle spot. And if he doesn't get it, then you've put yourself in a good spot because of the way that you've accumulated resources. You've given yourself a chance to move on from that and not have a torpedo you. That's what they've done.

But again, if you compound that with failing at quarterback, then that wiggle room and that flexibility doesn't really matter. Yeah. I mean, at least they've, you know, he is in position to at least you, again, like we mentioned with Tua, it's not to the same degree, but you should be able to get a fair evaluation on him. Year one to year two, same coordinator, better offensive line, presumably better weapons, even though, you know, I wouldn't say above average weapons. And so you should be able to get a pretty good evaluation on how much he can improve in his second season. And then you would have to make a decision after next year.

I'm curious what their pursuit of Chandler Jones means. They have Carl Lawson. He was obviously coming back from the Achilles, which is something to worry about. But they signed John Franklin Myers to that extension. So they have two edge rushers making more than $12 million a year. I'm wondering, would that mean more inside snaps for Franklin Myers this year? Are they worried about Lawson's health? That's just one thing that I had in the back of my mind.

If they're chasing another big ticket pass rusher, free agency, or the draft, what does it mean for the guys they have in house? That was the only lingering question I had about that. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. Obviously, those guys rotate, but still, like you said, you know, historically, you wouldn't commit that many financial resources to three guys. who may or may not be on the field at the same time. So I don't know what to make of that.

I mean, maybe they're just like, we need good players. And Saul is like, please give me a, give me another pass rusher. I need more to work with here. I can understand that. And again, Frankl Myers way is $2.90. I mean, if you want to bump him inside on passing downs, that's fine. So I get that. I'm just wondering how that, what that plan looks like ideally for them.

All right, let's stick in New York. Not a ton to talk about here just because they don't have any money to do anything. but I think their outlook and where they are right now is interesting, and that's the Giants. What do you make of the first couple months here of the Joe Shane Brian Dable era in New York? I mean, I just wrote down they inherited a mess. Like you said, I mean, maybe the least flexibility of any of the teams we talked about. They have a million dollars in cap space. Yeah.

So there really wasn't a lot they could do now. With their draft capital, I mean, that to me is very interesting because they're giving Daniel Jones an opportunity here. they've got picks 5, 7, and 36. Like, I know we're saying this about pretty much every team, but man, if you can trade down and get a pick for next year, like if I'm the Giants, if I'm Joachian, you want flexibility next off season. How can you achieve that?

You want picks, you want stuff to work with next offseason. If Daniel Jones plays well under Brian Zabel, that's a great outcome, but that's not one that I'm counting on, like looking at the next two to three years. Yes, he's going to be our guy. That would be a massive mistake. And so I want to be in position. next February to be like, all right, you know, didn't work out great, but we have moves we can

make now in my second season here. So that to me is kind of the key to their draft and really the rest of their offseason. Like you said, there's not a whole lot we can really expect that they're going to do. I don't think from now until week one, this is kind of their roster aside from the draft picks. Yeah, I mean, you look at the moves they made. They signed Mark Lewinsky to a three-year, $18 million deal. That's the splashing move they made in free agency. They also signed Tyrod Taylor to what I call the we're not sold on our starter contract. It Teddy Bridgewater got a one-year version of it. Tyraud Taylor got a two-year version of it.

It's two years 11 million. So we need to throw you in a week seven. We feel okay about that. That's that deal. It's the one that like the Teddies and Tyrods and Case Keenoms of the world tend to get. But other than that, they haven't done anything. You know, they had $11 million in dead money to cut Logan Ryan.

I mean, that's the position that this team is in right now. They had to convince Sterling Shepard to take a pay cut. I mean, they would get $2 million in cap relief if they traded James. is Bradbury versus cutting him. Those are the types of considerations that they've had to take on with the way that this roster looks right now. So next year, they could hit the reset button. They can move on from almost all of those deals as soon as next spring.

But for right now, there's just not much for them to do. I would do everything I could to try to find maybe another tackle in the top 10 of this year's draft. And like you said, just try to accumulate more picks, put myself in a position to potentially go get a quarterback next year. that that's really all I'd be thinking about. Yeah, they're weird teams because you go through the roster, they're like players I kind of like. I'm like, oh, you know,

Leonard Williams can be a really good player. Oh, Guilari was pretty fun as an edge rusher last year. Oh, man, when Cadarie's Tony actually played last year, he was making some jaw-dropping plays. And I'm going, oh, Brad Barry, you know, Xavier McKinney. But it's just so, so I don't know. Like, I don't know what their goals are. They have a new defensive coordinator.

You just have to kind of see what it looks like with these guys. I do think they're one of those teams where you're always trying to identify the team that was kind of in the worst situation, the previous year, whether it was coach and GM that could potentially be better because of the upgrade. And, you know, they could be one of those teams with just kind of day ball's approach offensively compared to how Joe Judge did things last year and a GM who's being patient. Like, you know, there could potentially be a big gap there, which I know would be a positive for Giants fans.

It wouldn't surprise me for them to have a season that was kind of like the 2017 bills. You know, we make that comparison with Joe Shane and this regime and what they're trying to do, that 2017 Bill's team had about $30 million in dead cap. They, 11 million essentially from Marcel Darius, 5 and a half million for Sammy Watkins. They had to move on from some of those expensive players from that

previous regime, and they stumbled into a 9 and 7 season that made the playoffs. They have real players on that team, and I do think that they're going to be put in much better positions, but I also think you can't get intoxicated by that. If you win nine games or 10 games and stumble into

a wild card spot, I think you have to see it with clear eyes next spring, being like, this is not the team we want. This is the team we had to trot out there, but let's see if we can actually hit the reset button this year, because they can't. If they want to start over next spring, they can. So I think that's going to be the challenge more than anything else. If they overachieve, what does that end up meaning? They could have a season similar to what the Eagles had last year, right? Yeah, that's another good comparison. That's another good one. You had to change it head coach. You still kind of have some players who might be okay,

and you're playing in a bad division, by the way, which the NFC East is every year. And it's week 17 and you're 8 and 8, and the winner goes to the playoffs as the seventh wildcard team. I mean, yeah, they could have that kind of season. I absolutely think they could. That wouldn't surprise me whatsoever because I do think the difference between the offensive coaching

that they've had over the last two years and Brian Daibble is about as stark as you can get. All right, the Las Vegas Raiders, what have you learned from the first couple months of the Dave Ziegler, Josh McDaniels era in Vegas. They're trying to win now, and they are not going to be

complete Bill Belichick clones, because I don't think Bill Belichick's making that Devante adict trade. So they're just like, you know, they're not even trying to hide it or anything. They're like, let's go win games next year, compete in the hardest division in football. And I will say this.

You know, like if you're asking me, is this the why, if the goal is to win a championship is what they're doing right now, the wisest path. The answer is probably no, right? You would say you don't do that, Adam's trade. You hold on a draft capital.

You take your time. I've always had this sort of theory that we overrate. Now, I don't think teams feel like this, but if you're a fan, we overrate kind of winning a championship compared to a fun experience. You know, like if you're a Raiders fan on a Sunday and it's like, you know, the game just finished and it's night and you don't want to be like, why did I waste my time with this pathetic group for the last three years? everyone listening, you, we all know as a sports fan, you have those moments.

Why am I wasting my life with this experience? God, I hate the team. I certainly do. Yeah, I hate this coach. And guess what? They're going to be fun next year. I don't know if they're going to make the playoffs. I don't know if they have any chance to win the Super Bowl, but you give me Derek Carr

with Devante Adams and Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller. That's going to be pretty fun. You give me Chandler Jones and Max Crosby on defense. That's going to be pretty fun. So in that respect, like I always try to separate the two. Like, again, I don't know if this is the best strategy for team building, but guess what? If you want entertainment as a sports fan who invest your disposable income in a team, then this offseason and this plan has been a win for you.

It's kind of been a fascinating off season because obviously the Adams and the Chandler Jones moves are the ones that grab all the headlines. They've signed like 10 guys to one-year deals. And telling players, right, Jakob Johnson comes in to play fullback, they sign like Kyle Pecco. They signed Bilal Nichols to a two-year deal, understanding that we need a different sort of player up front. So they've made these splashy moves, but they've also made a lot of quieter moves, I think, designed to remake those bones of the roster. And we were talking about this at some point. I can't remember exactly when it was, but it was obviously post-Gruden and with the

understanding that there was going to be a new regime likely coming in and how that new regime would see the core of players with the Raiders. You have a left tackle. You have a star past Russia or Max Crosby. You have some past catching talent in Renfro and Waller. You have a couple of young pieces in the secondary. Hobbs, Morig. It's like, all right, what is this?

And ultimately, I think the determination has to be, what is the quarterback? Do you think this is a guy worth building around? Do you think this is a guy worth committing to? And that's why I think Derek Carr is just an incredible example of this conversation. Because I think you could see it both ways. I think you could look at Derek Carr if you're Josh McDaniels and say,

there are not enough avenues to us getting better than this for us to move on from this. Or you can look at Derek Carr and say, we're not committed to this guy. Why would we commit long term to this person pay him $35, $40 million a year when we could easily have a clean break, we could trade, we could start over? And this group, what we've learned is they thought they'd were closer to the finish line. They thought that they were closer to contention than starting over. And based on the nucleus of players they had, I understand that. But oh boy, they've committed to this nucleus plus Devante Adams. Like there's not a lot of places for this team to go right now

after the moves that they've made. Yeah. And they're another one where, you know, like you mentioned, they did have alternatives. I mean, you could think about the QB market this off season. You know, heck yeah, you could have gotten something for Derek Carr. Now instead, you're probably going to be paying him 40 million per season. Even when like the initial reports came out when Josh McDaniels gets hired that no, he wants Derek Carr, I was like, I'll believe this when I see it. Because I mean, just look at the Patriots last year. Like if I thought maybe McDaniels are just saying, we just did this with Mack Jones last

year. Like I can get a rookie in here who can give me, I don't know, 70% of Derek Carr was going to be on a rookie contract and we'll build around him. Like I actually thought that that's what they were going to do. I was wrong about that. It looks like they're committed to Carr. They're going for it. You're right.

I mean, this isn't like a one-year flyer type thing. I mean, Chandler Jones is, what, 32 years old? Devante Adams is going to turn 30 during the season. You're going to commit to Derek Carr for a big contract. So this is really about, like, we're going with all the guys here. We're trying to build with the, you know, we're trying to add on to that. And we're trying to compete in the AFC. I mean, you zoom out and you go, are they really going to be able to compete with Mahomes

and Josh Allen and Herbert and Burrow? And like, I would lean towards now. But again, you know what? maybe they'll be competitive and they'll be fun and get into the playoffs. And like the bar there, I also feel, I also feel like it's important to remember that with some of these franchises. Like the bar for the Raiders, like if they make the playoffs, I mean, that's going to be a fantastic experience for the organization, for the fan base, anyone who follows them. You know, some of these other, we talk about the Packers. It's like, all right, Super Bowl or

bust, baby. You know, that's all that matters. They're not at that spot. So I feel like they're kind of well positioned to take the approach they're taking. Because if you get into the playoffs, man, if you win a playoff game, it's like, it's, like you're throwing a parade if you're a Raiders fan. So I understand it. It might not work out, but I understand it. They're going to be competitive. I mean, with this group, they're going to be competitive. It's just a matter of do you have now the flexibility to kind of finish off the roster? I mean, you look at the offensive line, for example. The offensive line needs retooling. The offensive line still needs more help. And now you just have fewer ways to get that help because of the

moves that you've made. So it's a fascinating bit of team building. And the fact that they went this direction. I understand it, but we'll see what ultimately that means. All right. What have you learned from the first two years of the George Payton era in Denver? They should be in less need, all in go win the Super Bowl mode. I mean, that's why you make the rush trade. No patience, none of that, any move you can make to improve the roster to win the Super Bowl this year, to win the Super Bowl next year, go ahead and do that. And it sort of feels like that is what they're going to do. I mean, they should be building the biggest, baddest offense you could even think of. you know, that that should be the number one goal after making that trade. They still need some help

at right tackle. Defensively, like, you look at the defensive roster, DJ Jones, Randy Gregory, we'll see if he can stay healthy, Justin Simmons, Patrick Sertan, like, I can easily talk myself into this being a top eight DVOA offense and like a mediocre type defense and it being a really good team. So I understand what they've done. They were patient. They built a franchise, a roster that was appealing to Russell Wilson. I mean, they probably deserve credit for that. He had his pick of where he wanted to go there. And even if Aaron Rogers was going to move, it seemed like that was going to be the place. So I don't know that much about Nathaniel Hackett as a schemer and an offensive coach. He seems entertaining. And I like entertaining coaches who seem like character.

So it's a win for me one way or another. So we'll see what happens there. But I feel like at a right tackle. If there are other ways to improve the roster, if it means giving up future picks, go ahead and do that and try to win. Again, might not work out, but that's where you are

and that's what you should be doing. We talk about this a lot with certain teams, and we use the phrase quarterback away. And we think they're a quarterback away, but maybe the franchise doesn't. I think everything the Broncos have done over the last year has been proof that they believed they were a quarterback away.

And the two moves that, I think, exemplify that more than, anything are signing Tim Patrick and Cortland Sutton to those extensions. The idea that we're going to keep this group intact and all we need is to drop the right quarterback in here and we feel like we can get where we want to go, those moves to me. That's what they said. And then that's what happened to me. They have the receiving court. They have, like you said, an offensive line that's pretty solid outside of that hole at right tackle. And there are right tackles on the market. They

still have a little bit of wiggle room financially if they want it. They can finish this thing off. And the crazy part is they still have three top 100 picks. Yeah. That Von Miller trade and what they got for him, it takes balls to make that deal if you're George Payton. And if you look at it right now, they get Randy Gregory for $14 million a year and they have an extra second and extra third round pick. That's the calculus that they've made. And Von just signed a $17, $18 million a deal to go play for the bills. So everything they've done, I think makes sense when you look at it. as part of a whole.

They still have a couple ways that they can improve this team with some cheap deals, and they have a pretty complete roster. Even something like the Kwan Williams deal. Like, going to sign Kwan Williams to be your nickel corner. Everyone knows I love K.Y. Williams.

Like, that sort of thing. It's like, all right, that's one more hole filled. Now, maybe you need another safety. You get some depth elsewhere on the defensive line, all that stuff. But for the most part, I mean, they have a fairly complete roster, even when you consider the picks

that they're not going to have after trading for Russell Wilson. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the picks because when I was doing this exercise, I was surprised by that. I was expecting to scroll down and scroll down and scroll down some more to find their picks. And it was like, oh, no, I forgot about the Von Miller trade. And so, yeah, you have 64, you have 75, you have 96, like you have avenues to either make moves or to make picks there and add to your roster.

So they are pretty well positioned here for sure. All right. Last team here, we don't have to spend a lot of time on this just because we've talked about them a lot. what have you learned about the chargers here in year two of the brandon staley era they're ready to compete the suit for a super bowl baby it's only march we're real back in i mean they really are this is what you do when you when you luck into or i should say luck into they scouted him when you are blessed with a justin herbert on a rookie deal if you are being patient and taking your time i have no time for you you go all in you trade for calil mac you sign j c jackson you sign your boy sebastian uh jose joseph day and you say let's go win the freaking Super Bowl in the next two years. I mean, that's a nice, it's nice that they're building it that way. We'll see. Please get me a right tackle on that team before the start of the season. There are still guys out there, like you mentioned.

It doesn't have to be a superstar. They still have two picks in the top 100. They have the 17th overall pick. I mean, trading back wouldn't be, you know, the worst idea. Add more depth to that roster. You know you're going to finish 32nd and adjusted games lost because that's just how it has to be with the chargers in position like this. So you know you're going to get crushed by injuries. But they were fourth in offensive TVOA last season. What do we say? That's where you want to be.

That's the hardest thing to achieve. Once you achieve that, man, you are in it year after year. And so, like, even though the offense might have been a little frustrating at times, you sit back and you look at a 17 game sample, they're a top five offense. The defense was not very good. You just added two, I mean, blue chip players on defense. Like, go, go compete for the Super Bowl. Now's the time.

I'm already excited about him. Sorry to curse them so soon this offseason. I don't think I'm going to say anything else after what you just said because I'm just very weary of continuing to go down this road. I'm very curious about what the final couple pieces are going to look like here with that 17th pick. Is it speed at receiver? Without a second round pick, do they feel more compelled to try to chase it there? Do they trade down and try to add another pick? Do they go find more cornerback help?

Brandon Staley was kind of lukewarm on Michael Davis last week when they asked him about Davis as part of the plan with J.C. Jackson now in the fold. And that's not shocking to me. So I'm wondering if they feel like they want to go get one more corner and they do it earlier than we think they might. And then where does more interior defensive line depth come from? Do they try to do that a little bit later in the draft?

So those spots and how they ultimately end up using their picks and then where the right tackle comes from, those are the questions I still have left. But I'm with you. I mean, when you have that guy making what he's making, that this is what you have to do. You have to feel like we can do it right now with the core of players we have, and you should go for it. And that's exactly what they've done. I'm so excited to see how it goes off.

It's going to be awful. Yeah, we know it will. You know, I was thinking, I was actually thinking this all. I'm like, you know what? I went in big on them last off season. Should I, you know, hold off and learn my lesson. But I'm like, no, this is not the off season to reel it back in. and say, I'm not going to go all in on the charger.

So, you know, year after year, after year, maybe one of these years, be lucky with the takes. And if not, again, it's been a fun ride. And you're like seven years behind me in terms of consecutive seasons. Oh, yeah, I wasn't in on them until Herbert. Yeah, the river stuff, I was leaving that to you guys. Going from the fact that, like, my favorite quarterback in the NFL has played for the same franchise, and they're completely disconnected.

Different coaching staffs. It has nothing to do with. one another. Also, stylistically, they're totally different. They are so far away from each other. I still don't know how to, like, explain it. And maybe it's the uniform. I have no idea what it is where I'm just completely sucked into this team, but this is where we are. So I'm going to stop talking about it because I'm just, it's going to come back to burn me so badly. Shil, thank you very much, my friend. I think that was a very instructive exercise. I really liked talking about some of the teams we have not chatted about a lot because they've not been super

active and free agency. Appreciate the time. Appreciate you guys listening, as always. Please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform with choice. I would really appreciate that. Please subscribe to the athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. You can reach Shield's continuing coverage of all of the big moves happening during the wildest NFL offseason that I can remember.

We will be back early next week. It's draft time. We got about a month until the draft. It's time to ramp up our draft coverage. We're going to dig into that with Dane. with everybody else that we have here on staff. We'll talk about the quarterbacks next week. We're going to do a lot of that fun stuff.

So please come back and check that out. In the meantime, enjoy your guys' weekend. Talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.