The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Deebo Samuel seeks a trade & how the 2016 draft class explains the NFL with Bill Barnwell

Episode Date: April 21, 2022

News broke on Wednesday that Deebo Samuel is seeking a trade from the 49ers. Friend of the show Bill Barnwell is already here, so he and Robert Mays react to the news before diving into the topic of the day, how the 2016 draft class explains the NFL, from Jared Goff to Jalen Ramsey, Ezekiel Elliott and Joey Bosa, they spend the pod digging into the ripple effect of these moves across the league. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. Today's Thursday, April 21st. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today, it's my good friend Bill Barnwell, BSPN. How you doing, buddy? Mays, you know, I thought there was going to be nothing to discuss on today's show. And then the NFL opened up a world for us where Debo Samuel suddenly does not want to be a San Francisco 49er for some reason.

Common theme this spring. A lot of that happening, where we'll have a show plan. and then we'll have to do a little bit of a pivot. We are going to talk about something else today. In the lead up to the draft, you know, last year you and I looked back, and we looked at the best and worst drafting teams of the last decade, and I really enjoyed that. And I was trying to figure out a look-back show to do with you.

And the genesis of this is that I was listening to J-1 Ramsey on the Pivot podcast, Ryan Clark's new podcast that he's doing, and just talking about the Cowboys potentially drafting him. And I was looking back at that 2016 draft. And just all the sliding doors moments, not just that, but all the ripple effects from that draft, you can look at the league through the top half of the first round of the 2016 draft in a lot of ways. I mean, you think about the Laramie Tunsell trade and all of the butterfly effects that that's had.

You recently wrote about that. So that's what I wanted to do today. I wanted to look back at the 2016 draft as a way to better understand the last six years of NFL football. But before we do that, like you alluded to, we got to talk about Demo Samuel because this is why. Kyle, okay? Jeff Darlington. So obviously the timeline of this, we have normal social media scrub,

which it's a standard part of the process these days. Honestly, if you haven't scrubbed your employer from your social media during the offseason, it's like when Aaron Rogers did that cleanse. That's just part of the offseason process. I need to take better care of myself, I guess. So that happens. Yesterday on NFL Live, Adam Schaefter throws out, a little bait that it seems like this is Debo not wanting to engage with the Niners on this,

which seems surprising. And then Jeff Darlington tweets today that it is in fact Debo wanting out of San Francisco and not that the Niners are hesitant about paying him. No specific reason given. It has been implied in multiple places. I think Ian Rappaport said this earlier today on NFL network that Devo has concerns about his role. The Niners have reached out to him about a possible extension that would pay him. that would pay him near the top of the market.

And he's like, you know what? I'm good. I don't really want to play for you guys anymore. I mean, just a pretty crazy series of events. Yeah. And I mean, any other offseason, you'd be like, wow, this is nuts. And then this off season. It would be the wildest thing that's happened over the last like three months.

This is just like, wow, I'm kind of surprised that D.K. Metcalf wants to stay with the Seahawks. Like, why would anybody want to stay with their team? That's weird. I do want to talk about that a little bit. it. Let's talk about just some of the specifics as it relates to the Debo Samuel thing. Okay. You know, he has concerns about his role. And I guess, and if that's in fact true, I get that, right? I mean, this is a guy that if you look at the market for receivers, you look at the market for running backs and the chasmuson between those two things.

You think about what his usage over time in San Francisco would do to his longevity as a player. If I were Debo Samuel, I would absolutely have concerns about that. So that's part of this conversation. The other part is what he might look like somewhere else. Because we think, you know, as we've talked about the draft and different roles and archetypal players in the league, I think a lot of people have mentioned the Debo Samuel role as this idea of a player who runs the ball a lot and plays receiver. Debo was second in the NFL in yards per route run last year. He only carried the ball six times the first nine games of the season. He was an all-pro wide receiver.

He doesn't need to play this way to be effective and to be. be one of the more impactful offensive players in the entire league. And I'm sure he knows that. So there's just a lot of push and pull here on both sides that I actually do understand. Like, that part of it is not that crazy to me. Yes. But I think there's, I think there's a few questions. And you alluded to one of them off the top, which was you're trading for someone who was just in an offense built to his strengths. 100%. With a play caller who say whatever you want about Kyle Shanahan.

Like the dude manufactures the right touches at the right time for the right people in that offense. So when you're trading for Debo Samuel, you're basically saying, hey, we can do that too. You know, whatever schlup we have at offensive coordinator, like, yeah, we can get that guy to do the exact same stuff. And I feel like I'm an outlier in terms of my opinion here on Debo Samuel. Like, yes, you mentioned first half of the year not running the ball was second in the NFL in yards per outrun. I think I feel pretty confident, actually. 2021 was the best season we will ever see Debo Samuel have. Like I think given his skill set, given his ability, I think this was the best possible outcome in terms of what he can do.

on the football field. I think there's a few reasons why. Number one, he was healthy for most of the year. He missed a game. But this is the guy who's really struggled to stay healthy his first two seasons in the NFL. And that is a legitimate concern for him moving forward. And I'm sure it's part of the reason he doesn't want to take all those hits.

I absolutely understand that. I don't fault him for that in the slightest. But if he's not doing that, that takes away a huge chunk of his value. I guess he still can be a valuable receiver. But last year, he had more DYAR. the football outsider's efficiency is that he had more D.YAR as a runner than he did as a receiver, which is crazy. And as a runner, even if he was going to be a runner in the future, there was no way he could be as effective again. He had 57 carries outside the five-yard line, scored seven times. He led the NFL in rushing touchdowns outside the five-yard line.

Not among receivers maze, among any position. Jonathan Taylor had 302 carries outside the five-yard line and did not score as many touchdowns as Debo Samuel did. But let's say he's not doing that anymore. That's fine. But as a receiver, yes, he is super talented. He's big. He drops the ball more than you might like. He fumbled four times last year. But he's also put in situations where maybe the quarterback he was playing with

might have put him into a bit of a hospital ball situation. Yeah, that doesn't concern me at all. I think it's more about him playing in an offense designed to create yak opportunities. He's a monster. He makes more of those opportunities than pretty much anyone else would. But if you look at the numbers over the year, years, Kyle Shanahan has done consistently the best job of creating yards after catch chances for the players in his offense. He has really good yak players, but it's a little column A,

a little column B. And you saying this about, I don't know if we'll ever see a better version of him in San Francisco or elsewhere. And I think if you were to change teams, it would dampen this even more. I think that's true about most receivers. The Stefan Diggs thing, I think, has given us kind of a false understanding of how effective receivers often are when they change teams. And I think if you look at Devonte Adams, you look at Tyree Kill, and if Debo Samuel were to change situations, I think this is true for all of them. They were in a perfect football spot. The marriage between scheme, the way they were used, everything, was at this sweet spot where we got to see the best versions of them. And even if we like them as players, I think that

replicating all of those circumstances is so, so difficult that all of these guys that these teams are trading King's Ransoms to go get probably aren't going to be the same players we saw in their previous situation for a whole multitude of reasons. Well, I mean, I would say the only argument you might make in Debo's favor is he's young. I mean, he's younger than that's the difference, right? And he's coming off a cheaper deal. He's younger than Devante Adams. So he still has, you know, he still has another whole contract. before he gets to where those guys are in their respective careers. But the other side is Tyreek Hill has been Tyree Kill for several years now. Devante Adams has been Devante Adams for

several years now. This is the first year Debo was this dude. And to get to my other stat when it comes to his yards after catch, like, yes, he is going to be a monster after the catch that is not going to change. But Debo Samuel had three receptions last year of 75 yards or more. The last time anybody in the did that was Lee Evans 15 years ago. Like, like, like, like, even if he's going to be a monster after the catch, which I think he will be, even if he is a guy who can be a physical force, which he is, like, this was the best possible version of that physical force, the best possible version of that super yak receiver for Kyle Shanahan. Like, I think he had just the, the way, 99th percentile outcome season for his skill set. And that is, he, he, he, he, he had. He had, he,

can still be a valuable player, and I think he can still be a valuable player outside of this offense. But when you start thinking about not just paying him, but also trading significant draft capital to get him, like he has to be a monster. It's the same conversation we had about Cleo Mac, where it wasn't just paying him market value, but also trading multiple first round picks to get him. He has to be a defensive player of the year candidate year after year. He kind of was that guy in year one, but not really after that for the bears. And for Debo, I think this is sort of the same situation where if you're trading a first round pick, which I think is the bare minimum, the miners would even consider to make this trade. And then you're giving him a

contract with $25 million a year. Well, he has to be that guy from 2021 year after year to make that work. And that is, I think that's tough to imagine. It's tough to imagine for any player. And all of these trades, with Devante Adams, with Tyree Kill, even they, those guys have longer track records, of success. I still think it's going to be hard to live up to the capital required to go get them. Well, and I think that would be true for Debo Samuel, too. Yeah, we're going to talk about someone who was traded in one of those deals where it kind of worked out. And that's the only one. It's the only one that ever has.

And I think that's important to remember. And I want to separate out and kind of parse this part of the conversation a little bit. Because I think that it can be as smart on the team's trading to go get those assets and to say, all right, I would rather have the cap room and the draft capital. Whether it's a first round pick, first round pick and change, and the $23 million a year. I don't think it's that is easy as saying I want that. And I'm just replacing it with a first round. receiver. I do think we're overstating how easy it is to find all pro receivers in the draft. And I think that we're getting a little, again, carried away with what Minnesota did with Justin Jefferson.

There are a lot of Jalen Ragers and McColle. Hardman's and all of those sorts of players in the first two rounds, even if there have been, there has been a glut of really good receivers. I don't think it's as simple as, well, we'll just take Chris Olavé at 25 and he'll be Debo Samuel. No, of course. That's just not how this works. And I think we're overstating how much the availability of receiving talent in the draft is going to impact or should impact these decisions. Of course. But what I would say is this.

What happens when it works out? Like when you get DeVante Adams and he's a superstar, well, great. He's as good as you're paying him. Like you're getting exactly what you paid for. It's hard for him to overpay or outplay what you're paying him. That is the best case scenario. Justin Jefferson is making $5, $4 million a year and is a $25 million a year player. I think that is the, that's why teams are willing to make this trade because, yes, you're not going to get what you're hoping for every single time.

But number one, that isn't always the case with the veterans either. And number two, when it does work out, even if it only works out half the time, you're still making money on that in terms of surplus value on that offer. So I do think that, you know, it's different for each team, right? Like, you know, I think if you're the bills and you were in the situation you were in, making the Staphaun-Dix trade make total sense. Even if you- That extension was already locked in, too. It's a huge part of it. Of course, for sure.

I think I'd say a huge part that people don't consider is that they already had him for two years on a very reasonable deal before they even had to consider negotiating an extension. And they gave him an extension, and I have no issue with that whatsoever. But what I would say is that, you know, I think we have to consider all those factors. And I have to consider the context of the team. And I think there are teams out there where I would be hesitant to make this move, but I could also very easily understand some teams in this draft saying, yeah, I'd rather go at Depot Samuel, I'm going to see what I can get and hope that it works out just because we're

in a situation where having a player with more certainty, even if it's not total certainty, is still better for us given where we are in our sort of competitive cycle. Which team do you think it would make sense for? Oh, boy. What team do you think it would make sense for? It's hard for me to find one because let's say you throw the Jets out as an option. It'd take the 10th pick, maybe, and the receivers that the Jets were going after, that they were potentially interested in.

Debo Samuel isn't like those guys. I mean, Tyree Kill and Debo Samuel do have more overlap than it might seem at first glance, just based on how Tyree Kill has been used over the last couple years. But Tyree Kill still has a top off the defense element that it seems like the Jets were chasing. And I think D.K. Metcalf would be more set up to give them than a guy like Debo Samuel would, even if there's familiarity with the coaching staff there. I mean, does it feel like a team like Green Bay would want him? I don't know if that necessarily makes.

sense when you consider what they've asked of their receivers and what they need within that offense. There isn't a logical fit to me. Honestly, the one that would make the most sense is Miami, but they no longer have a need for him. Would you do it if you're the Patriots? Yeah, probably. I don't know.

I think that's a good one. I honestly think that's a good one because they desperately need help there. I mean, the Devante Parker deal maybe prevents them from wanting to do that. They just gave up draft capital for someone. Here's a good rule to have in life. Don't let Devante Parker stand in the way of your dreams. If you want to get Debo San you. You know what?

You'll find some place for Devante Parker. You can always trade him somewhere else for a fifth round pick. So here's why I think that would make sense. Because I think they need someone who can create instant offense just by getting the ball in his hands. Because Mac is never going to be that guy that's going to push the ball down the field. He doesn't have that otherworldly arm. Can you have someone that can earn offense solely by getting the ball in his hands? And I think Debo is the answer for that.

So that would be one that does make sense to me. I like that a lot, actually. But if you're the Niners, are you sort of acquiescing here? Are you going to dare Debo Samuel to hold in or not show up to camp or whatever? Because he doesn't have a lot of leverage in this situation. I'm going to try to win that staring contest if I'm San Francisco. Because I think he is more valuable to the Niners, given what they do with him and given Kyle Shanahan's ability than he is for most NFL teams. I totally agree with that. It's the frustrating part about this is that I get why he's upset about the way he's being used.

But it is sad as someone who loves watching these guys in these perfect situations for them to see those perfect situations erode. And we've seen it happen three different times. Like not getting to watch Aaron Rogers throw the ball to Devante Adams anymore is a bummer for people who love watching football. And Tyree Kill and Patrick Mahomes over the last few years have been a perfect match for a one. another and now we're seeing consistently those matches start to disintegrate. Why am I like worried he's going to end up with like the Falcons or somewhere just totally hopeless? Oh God, that would be a terrible decision.

Or the commanders. Well, I mean, McLaurin's another one of those. Would you rather, if you could trade for one right now, you have to trade for one, you have to give one first round pick and you have to give them $23 million a year. Would you rather have Debo Samuel or Terry McClain? Terry McLaren. I think so too. I, and that's not, not to say Dibo's a bad player by any means.

I just think, like I said, I think this was the, Dibo was in the best possible situation to succeed and had the best possible outcome of that situation. And I don't think you can say the same about Terry McLaren over the past couple of years. I think that's totally fair. I'm trying to think if I were, if I were Chicago and I have the 39th pick, would I give up the 39th pick for Dibo Samuel and giving, give him that extension? The Bears have $125 million in cap space next year. I was looking at cash over cap spending today for something else, by the way. The Bears are set to spend $140 million in cash right now. The Browns have spent, are set to spend $260 million.

It's $120 million gap in cash spending. It's a fun time to be a fan of the Chicago Bears. All right. Let's get to the 2016 draft and let's get to how the 2016 draft helps us understand where the league is right now. And we can start at the top. and I think we can start at the career paths of Jared Goff and Carson Wentz from the moment their drafting teams tried to acquire them.

The fact that both of these guys, and this is stuff, just forget over time, what it took to go get them. These were splashy trades. The Rams and the Eagles both had to move up from the middle of the first round to the top two to make these picks happen, and they gave up a ton to do it. Absolutely. I mean, this was, you know, less neat had already been there with the Rams, but this was still the Jeff Fisher era in Los Angeles. I mean, at the end of it. Right. I mean, it was, it was right at the end of, they had just got rid of San Bradford. Who was their court? Was it Nick Foles in 2015? Was their quarterback? Yeah, because they traded him for San Bradford. Right. So they had Nick Foles for a year. That didn't work out. I think Keith Null.

start no no that was that was not keith knoll um case keenan and nick vols started 16 games to them and they were competitive they went seven and nine which is that's the jeff fisher joke ha ha ha um but i mean they were not in position where it was okay they're going to make a big move obviously and for the eagles i mean that was a team that was very much in transition chip kelly had just been fired that roster was a mess they had like 30 million dollars invested in running backs or something crazy they had to get rid of demarko murray they had to get rid of they kept ryan matthews i think but they had to make multiple trades to even get the capital to move up to the second overall pick for Winston.

That even came after they had signed Chase. Daniel to a reasonable deal for a backup and signed Sam Bradford. And they had Bradford. The fact that they had those guys in the building is amazing. I also love that I totally forgot about this. But to move from 13 to 8 at their first little jump, they traded Byron Maxwell, Kiko, Alonzo. The fact, how he's destination. his determination to purge the entire roster of everything that Chip Kelly did, it was remarkable.

Even in the moment. And with this, listen, he probably didn't want any of those guys anyway. And they moved up five picks and then made the jump from eight to two ultimately possible. Absolutely. And I think in the big picture with both these guys, we'll talk about what happens towards the end of their ones with their respective teams. But I think they are sort of the quintessingestinal. essential example of how much your value and how much your production changes based on what's around you. I think if you want to make the case that the NFL is mostly driven by where you

end up, I think Patrick Mahomes might be example one, and then Jared Goff and Carson Wentz are examples two and three. I mean, Jared Goff had that first year with who is his offensive court? Was it Rob Boris? I think it was Rob Boris. Rob Boris was the offensive coordinator. I mean, he looked totally lost, deer in headlights, the second half of that season. Carson Wentz, good, but number fell off so dramatically once his offensive line was struck. I think Lane Johnson missed a good chunk of that year, and his numbers on-off numbers were just dramatic. And then year two, but you had talent at receiver, offensive lines healthy for once, and Goff gets Sean McVeigh and Robert Woods and Andrew Whitworth, and they blossom. I mean, they took massive, massive leaps in year two. Maybe not a

Josh Allen-sized leap, but pretty shocking given how bad golf was in his first season and how kind of mediocre was, wins for most of its first season. They were really impressive in your team. Even if their play wasn't outlandishly good or, man, that's like a top five quarterback, their play within the context of the offense, Wence was second and EPA per play among quarterbacks in the second year. Golf was fourth. I mean, they were top five passing offenses.

And they did that while giving up all of that draft capital, go get those guys. In the moment when you were watching the Rams and the Eagles in 2017 and, and then into 2018 for the Rams, there was never once a thought of, man, I can't believe they gave up so much to go get Jared Gough or Carson Wetz. Because, like you said, with the capital and free agency and spending and against the cap that they had with those guys on rookie contracts, they were able to surround them with the right supporting cast and the right coaches for at least a couple different years. The Rams went out in free agency in 2017. It got Andrew Whitworth and Robert Woods. Roger Saffold was on a second deal.

By the way, I totally forgot about this. Remember what Roger Saffold failed his physical and couldn't sign with the Raiders? Oh, yeah, yeah. I remember talking about this with you. And when we were at Greatland, I remember being in that studio at LA Live when this happened and we were breaking it down. It was in like 2013 or 2014. I totally forgot about that until I was doing the research for this. I don't remember that at all.

But so this, that year, 2017, they were middle of the road in offensive spending, which makes sense when you have a rookie quarterback. They were fourth in cap spending on defense that year. And they finished seventh in EPA per play on defense. The Eagles in 2017, when they went to the Super Bowl, they were seventh in the percentage of cap spending on their offensive line, like you mentioned. They were able to build up the other parts of that roster with those guys on those rookie deals to the point where, again, no one ever said, I can't believe they traded the equivalent

of another number one overall pick to go up in the draft and get this guy because of how well it worked out with the resources that they had left over. Well, I mean that that's the difference between trading for a 28-year-old wide receiver who's going to get $25 million a year and trading for a 22-year-old quarterback who's going to get $6 million a year. Even if he's just okay. Even if he's just, even if he's Mac Jones. Like, you're still getting a guy at a position where the market is back then it was like

20 million a year. and now it's $35 million a year or $38 million a year for a good veteran quarterback, if you can approximate that for $6 million a year, you're coming out so far ahead, even if you do trade up to get that guy. So I think that's why, like, that's the difference between these sorts of trades and why I'm always a little hesitant when we talk about comparing, you know, trading for Devante Adams and trading for Tyree Kill to trading for Jared Goff or trading for, you know, guys on rookie deals.

There's just such a big difference financially. And, you know, I think. we sort of saw this a little bit with the Robert Griffin trade in year one. Like, remember there was that big flip of year one? It was like, oh, my God. How could the Rams trade away that pick for Robert Griffin? They got a bunch of draft picks. Who cares?

And then by year two or year three, it was like, oh, that was actually a really good trade for the Rams, as it turned out. And that flip kind of happened with these guys, but it didn't happen until much further down the line. Well, by the end of the 2018 season, okay, both of those teams had been to the Super Bowl. Both of them. And those offenses had been really good in route. Obviously, Wents didn't play in the Super Bowl, but he was an MVP candidate. He was on his way to winning it in 2017 for a really good offense. The Rams offense in the first two years under McVeigh was fantastic.

I mean, they were one of the best offenses in football. And you were ahead of this, and we'll talk about that a little bit. But when that happens, if you have a Super Bowl caliber offense and you're winning all these games and you have a quarterback at the center of that, I think the default setting is just, okay well it's time to pay that guy right like we can win with him we're going to give him a top of the market extension because that's how this is always gone and the fear of the unknown and any sort of alternative to what we've been looking at over the last two years why would we explore that avenue uh less need in training camp in 2019 after only three years of jerry golf said it's not a matter of if it's a matter of when he gets extended and then he got extended and that was a couple months after wence did so wence got a hundred and seven million in guarantees that June, which just beat out the deal that Russell Wilson had gotten in April. Golf got $110 million in guarantees. Both of their average annual values landed in the top five among quarterbacks.

And that in a way, I think to most people in that moment, makes sense. Because you can win with him was often enough for most teams at quarterback. But you, even in that moment, balked at that idea for Jared Goff. And I think that you deserve credit for that. I don't know. I mean, I will say, you remember the game where Jared Gough threw five touchdowns against the Vikings on a Thursday night? I was there. You were there.

Yes. You were there. That was the day I published my article that was like, maybe we shouldn't pay these guys and you should save your money. And the next day. I think the entire Rams organization was like, who is this idiot? Who said they wrote this article about Jared? I had people without prompting say that to me. in the organization.

So yes, you are correct about that. Yes. So, I mean, that's fair. He was awesome in that game. He was so good in that game.

But that was... It was the best game I've ever seen a quarterback playing in person. It's up to that point. He was incredible. He was like, it felt like he was like

bending the ball like through space and time. The throw he hit to the back of the end zone, the long one to cup. It was, I mean, beautiful.

He can throw a football. I mean, I was the number one overall pick. Like, he's got, when it looks good. and he's pointed in the right direction, it can look really damn good.

And that night was the pinnacle of it. It was that night and the Chiefs game. That was a few months later, right? Yeah. I mean, that was the best Jared Gough we saw. But I think, and this is before that stretch at the end. Was it, no, it was it? Yeah, it was before the stretch to the end of 2018,

because they made the Super Bowl that year. That was the stretch where the Rams running game got clogged up by the stuff Vig Fangio was running and the stuff. Started with that alliance game. It started to come off the rails a little bit, yeah. Right. And then Todd Gurley wasn't 100%. And the running game was still fine with C.J. Anderson, but we sort of saw, okay, we've seen teams attack the Rams plan A.

And play action wasn't quite as effective as it had it been before. The offensive line, maybe take a step backwards the following year. And when things were not perfect around Jared Goff, we saw him struggle. Not as bad as it did during his rookie season, of course. But we still saw him not be exactly the same guy he had been in that Vikings game or in that Chiefs game. When he had, he was not able to create out of that scheme, out of that system, he looked kind of like a guy you would just plug in. And that argument I had made earlier in the season when I looked like a real idiot was basically, what if the best thing to do is to keep all those

guys who were the superstars in your offense? Maybe it's best to keep Todd Gurley and Cooper Cook and Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods and Andrew Worth and all those guys. And instead of cutting back on those guys, maybe you cut back on the quarterback. Maybe you trade that quarterback for a new piece. Maybe you trade him for a top five pick, and then you use that top five pick to get the next cheap quarterback. And it's one of those things where I think it's easy to say when you're not actually an NFL general manager. Like, it's much easier for me to say that than it is for an actual GM to make that trade. But I think we've seen the downside with these Goff and Wend's deals is that if you're not a tippy top Patrick Mahomes-level superstar, if you're just pretty good and really good when everything around you is perfect, we saw the

limitations of that and we saw both these teams have to go back on these deals pretty quickly. I don't fault either team for signing the deals that they did in the moment. To be clear, not in the slightest. I don't at all because I do think it's so much easier for us to say this from the outside because if you're moving on from that quarterback, it's a weird messaging thing. There's so many different considerations to take into account when you're thinking about harmony in your locker room and they're just a ton of different factors. But I will say, I do think that the results and the lessons from both of those deals

are starting to affect the way that teams are thinking about how they move forward now. Do you think if the Wentz and golf things don't happen? Do you think Baker gets extended last summer? I would say no, just because I think the Browns are a more, analytically inclined to organization than most. I think if it were Baker Mayfield playing for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Goff and Wentz don't happen, I think Baker gets extended. And that's I agree. The Steelers are not smart because they are, which is smart in a different way. But I think the Browns were thinking about this problem, maybe the same way I was thinking about this problem a little

bit when it comes to do the economics of this really makes sense. And I think, I think Baker is a classic example, right? You know, in terms of just... He's a perfect example. So much has to be around him for it to work. And I think we saw sort of like Goth and Wentz, to an even greater extent, we saw the full range of what Sorrenton Baker may have felt at his best and at his worst. I mean, we saw him with the offense working, with a great offensive line, with good receivers. We saw him with an excellent running game. And we saw him when nothing was working. The coach was a mess.

And the offense was basically relying on him to do stuff and he couldn't do it. And I think that makes that easier to see. I think if you see like a guy who is consistently just okay, like I think you're less likely to do it than if you're seeing those sort of big ups and downs before his contract comes up. And maybe that was the case with Goff. Like maybe he was still good enough earlier in that deal that the Rams were not willing to think about that possibility of him to not just not taking that step forward or not being that guy. Whereas I think with Baker having those big ups and downs sort of made the Browns think, okay, well, if he's only good when he's perfect, when things are perfect around him, what does that tell us? And I think, you know, I don't know. Maybe what happened either way.

I can't say. But I do think that Goth and Wentz were certainly kind of scare cases for teams in league. Even if they aren't brave enough to do it, I think it opened their mind to it in a way that maybe that wasn't the case five or six years ago. I'm totally with you. And I think that even talking to some teams, I do think that that was in the back of their minds as they've made some of these decisions and they've gone down some of these roads.

And I do think it's compounded by some of the other quarter. contracts we've seen that can be anvils, you know, the Kirk Cousins deals. And you look at that and then you, again, I think it's compounded even further by some of the quarterbacks we've seen come into the league. When you're looking at a Justin Herbert or a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh Allen and then you're looking at your quarterback, if he is just a guy paying for that certainty and paying $35 million to have it, I just don't think you can do it anymore. Okay. So not only the Carson Wentz and Jared Gough deals enough to scare people off, but I think it's also coming from another direction where you have this tier of quarterbacks that's pushing

it even further down the road. Okay. But then let me ask you, what's the line? Because is big of the line? We've talked about this. It's the car continuum. Me and Lindsay discussed this the other day. It's the car continuum.

If you are worse than Derek Carr, that's the line. If you're better, then that's fine. You can commit to that quarterback. So if Mack Jones doesn't improve that much? That's, sorry, Mac. I mean, that's it. I do, it's so hard. It's so hard to define where that line is.

And I think that we're going to see tons of teams dance around it and make mistakes. But I think that that line has to start existing. If you don't fall over that line, you're going to lose years, years if you commit to that guy. But that's the tough part, right? And I think the other thing is that from a team perspective, like everything you think over those first three years of that guy. guy's career is trying to find evidence to prove that you're right. You want to believe these guys are great. If they're not great yet, you want to believe they're going to be great. And so, I think it's so tough as a GM or as a coach to sort of sit there and say, okay, realistically,

this guy isn't it because you want him to be it so badly. And you might get fired if he's not it. You might not get the opportunity to get that next guy. So I do think that it's such a tough thing to do when you're actually part of an organization. I totally, 100%. It absolutely is. But I think that you'd have to look at it a little bit differently than you'd before. And I also think that patience is maybe more important in the process because they sign that those golf and went steals two years before they had to. I don't think you should be afraid of playing out the string a little bit further to give yourself a little bit more information. And maybe you have to overpay a little bit more in the end as a result. Yeah.

If it goes well. Yeah. Because then it's going well, who cares. Right. Well, part of it is your cap reasons. I think you want to have the longest run rate possible so you can split this big signing bonus. after five years, but it's easier to make a cap structure work two or three years down the line, as opposed to signing a guy two years too early and then being stuck having to trade him.

Although, I want to point out, the Eagles traded Carson Wentz, the Rams traded Jared Gough, they both made the playoffs and the Rams won a Super Bowl. So it's easier to pass these guys that maybe we're giving them credit for. Agreed. And I also think that the dead money that those teams are willing to take on has to be part of this conversation. Sure. If your owner is willing to eat that and we've seen more owners, take on those sorts of huge dead money hits over the last three or four years.

That's part of this consideration, too. For sure. All right. This one's really quick, but I just thought it was worth mentioning. Joey Bosa went third overall in that draft. Do you remember the Joey Bosa story? Wasn't this, I think this is, might have been someone else. Wasn't it Joey Bosa who offended the Browns by showing up to his meeting and sweatpants?

I don't remember that, but that wouldn't surprise me at all knowing Joey Bosa's personality. Go ahead. I'm going to look it up. So Joey Bosa for the last year before last fall was the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL. To easy to forget, I know, I forget it. He was making $27 million per year, had $102 million in practical guarantees, which is still right now the 10th highest number in the league for non-quarterbacks. He comfortably beat the numbers for Miles Garrett that Miles Garrett set earlier that season. So, again, it's a small thing, but I do think that where his career is,

is gone and the fact that we don't really think about him making that much and it didn't make a huge splash and we don't talk about it, I think it speaks to how clearly teams still view edge rushers in the pecking order of positions. That it is 100% number two behind quarterbacks and we are willing to pay up to prove that to you. Oh, for sure. I mean, quarterbacks are number one by a significant margin. And then it's edge rushers number two and a bit of a gap between, I think, wide receivers and I want to say. Offensive tackles is. Offensive. And then corners to step down from that. Corners, a little bit down from that as well.

Yeah, that is the, according to the market. Actually, corners are pretty close to tackles now. Corners, I think the average is about little for $15 million a year for the top 20 guys. And then tackles are about 16 and a half. So they're close, but edge rushers are way ahead of that. Edge rushers, the top 20 guys are a little under 19, a little, sorry, 19 and a half a year. So, I mean, it's a pretty significant leap. And I think, you know, as Lee becomes more and more of a passing league, that's not going to change.

Like, having those dudes who are just passing game records, like, that is the ultimate defense. That is the ultimate scheme. It's the ultimate, you know, the ultimate defense to any sort of great quarterback. And I mean, I don't think the Chargers regret signing Joey Bosa to that deal. He's going to be the second highest paid Bosa in the family in a year or so. but I think absolutely that is not going to change. By the way, my memory was accurate. Joey Bosa wore sweatpants and a backwards hat to meet with the browns.

For some reason, I thought it was John Dorsey, which was going to be funny to me that John Dorsey was going to give somebody shit for the way they were dressing as a man who wears the same sweatshirt every single day. Listen, I understand it, but he's not a well-dressed man. Well, this is before a pandemic too, right? I mean, now if you wore joggers in 2022 to somewhere, that's kind of formal, to be honest with you. have definitely shifted. How do you feel about the idea of paying $27 million a year to an Eddresher?

I'm fine with that. You have to pay somebody, right? Yeah, I just thought more like in a vacuum, I'm curious, but I kind of agree. I think that it's totally fine. All right, we get a little bit further down here. The Jalen Ramsey, Ezekiel Elliott, sliding doors moment for Dallas is just, it's fascinating. And this is where the time travel element of this kind of comes into play because there's so many different little branches that you can create.

So Dallas ultimately decides to take Ezekiel Elliott over Jalen Ramsey. A thing I totally forgot before looking this back up. Let's say the Cowboys take Jalen Ramsey in the first round. They wait on running back. Do you know who the next running back taken in the 2016 draft was that would have been available with their second round pick? Oh, I have no idea. It's Derek Henry.

Yes. It's beautiful. Just something to throw out there. So then if we keep playing it out further, so the 2017 season, they don't take Jalen Ramsey in this draft. They have a needed corner. They pick two corners. They pick one in the second round and the third round, Chiodo Buzia and Jordan Lewis. Eventually, the Cowboys have to trade a first round pick for Amari Cooper in 2018 because they have a need of a wide receiver.

Do you know who the two receivers to go immediately after Chidobio Woosier were in the 2017 draft? I don't. Juju Smith-Schuster and Cooper Cup. And this is fun, right? I mean, there's obviously a million different considerations. Who knows what actually ends up happening. But those potentialities are always interesting to explore. And when I just lay that out and you just think about Jalen Ramsey on the Cowboys,

what about that situation is the first thing that strikes you? I believe that the Cowboys do not let Jalen Ramsey leave after three years. I think that extension gets done. I don't think Jalen Ramsey develops a mysterious back injury that prevents him from playing. I did remember that. But, you know, I feel like that was a conversation at the time, right? It wasn't like maybe it is now because it was six years ago, but there was still a conversation at that time, a pretty comfortable conversation at that time about, okay, can Ezekiel Elliott be a good enough running back to justify being taken this high? That's not revisionist history at all.

No. And like, I think over the first couple of years that deal, Zieg was phenomenal. He was an absolute, like he was everything that Cowboys could have asked for. I don't think, I think even if you were skeptical of taking a running back that high, I think you had to make the argument then of, okay, well, it means Zieg's worked out, but otherwise. And part of this is just extending a running back is different from drafting a running back. But it reminds me a lot of the champ Bailey for Clinton Portis trade just in a different sort of way, where it's, you know, choosing between a superstar cornerback and a superstar or a very good,

maybe in Clinton Portis's case, running back, like just a superstar cornerback just does more. It's just harder to find those guys. And the Cowboys, I mean, they ended up finding Trond Dakes, has been very good for them last year, at least. But, you know, they've had issues at cornerback ever since. So you said that in his first two years he was about as good as you could be. And he was. He was a very good player for those first couple years, especially as a rookie.

But in 2017, the only running backs in the NFL with a higher DVOA than more than 50 carries than Rod Smith, the Cowboys backup that year, the only three guys were Alvin Camara, Dionne Lewis, who had that crazy year in 2017, and Aaron Jones. Those are the only three. So even if Ezekiela it was really good those first couple years, Rod Smith plugged into that 2017 Cowboys'I's

offense was one of the most efficient runners in the NFL that year. And I mean, it's not like the Cowboys had been struggling to run the football. They were doing okay. They had in 2014, they had DeMarco Murray have a crazy year. In 2015, I think it was, was it McFadden? Yes. And McFadden was good that year, not as good as Marker Murray had been, but that offense was a mess.

Tony Irma got hurt. They had Matt Castle and Kellan Moore and Brandon Whedon start games for them that year. I think that would have been the example of, okay, a running back is not going to drive this offense. It's we need to get the quarterback right. And, you know, I think that there's a little bit of high insight here. I think there were questions about Jalen Ramsey coming out of school. Like maybe he was not going to be, you know, the sort of all-world cornerback he's become. But like, you're drafting at that high. You're drafting for upside. Like, you're not drafting for the floor. His upside is crazy. J-Lamsey is like a once every five years athlete. His upside was,

we have a corner to play anywhere in the football field who does everything at a high level except for maybe create takeaways. He was not a guy who created a lot of takeaways at the college level, but he's totally fine as a pro and obviously has been phenomenal. 6-1-2-10-4-40. He was an ACC champion long and triple jumper. But let me ask you, did you work out where Ezekiel Elliott would have gone if he had not been drafted? I did not do that by the Cowboys, because I did. Okay. All right.

Lay it on me. Now I'm interested. So, let me get the right draft. I almost went through the 2022 draft order in doing this. That is not the right. He would not be taken by the Jets. So he was fourth. Five were the Jaguars, which took Jalen Ramsey.

They had just signed Chris Ivory to a big deal. Now, maybe they would have drafted Zeke. They've done stranger things and dumber things. They took Leonard Fournette the following year, which that opens up a whole other kind of worms as to what they would have done next year in the draft. But I don't think they would have taken a running back. at five. The Ravens drafted six. I don't think they would have taken a running back that high in the draft. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think they would do that. I don't think they would have either. Do you know who was seven, though? The San Francisco 49ers, who were coached

at that time by Chip Kelly. They took DeForest Buckner, but Chip Kelly loves running backs. I think he absolutely takes Zeke. And Zeke goes from being what he's been in Dallas, for better or for worse, to being like the Darren McFadden, where he gets drafted to the Bay Area and this great running back, it's kind of lost in obscurity for a few years. I think you're underselling the Oregon connection with the Forrest Buckner, and I don't know. And then you know how the eighth overall pick that year? It was the Chicago Bears picked Leonard Ford.

Oh, no. Tennessee. Tennessee. Maybe Tennessee takes Ezekiel Elliott and Derek Henry goes somewhere else. Oh, man. See, this is why it's fun. All right. So the Zic contract effects, the ripple effects of that are absolutely worth exploring.

You forget that he had two years left on his deal when he was holding out before the 2019 season. That's one thing to take into consideration. Tony Pollard was also a rookie that year, which is very funny. So Zeeke came into the league because he was drafted that high with a top 10 average annual value at the position. Todd Gurley was about a year out from his deal that paid him $14 million a change per year. If the Cowboys were going to do an extension, it was going to be $15 million a year per se. for Zieg. Because he had two years left on his deal, last season was the first season of Ezekiel Elliott's six-year extension with the Cowboys. This is year two. He has an $18.2 million cap hit this

year, which is the ninth highest in the NFL among non-quarterbacks at any position. The Cowboys just traded Amari Cooper for a fifth round pick because they can't pay everybody. I mean, we're still, we're in the middle, like deep in the middle of the ramifications of them taking him in the top five, even though it's six years after they did it. Right. And I mean, I don't recall anybody at the time criticizing the Cowboys for extending Ezekiel Elliott. But this is the exact same thing that happened to the Rams with Todd Grilly. They had him, after the first three years of his rookie deal. Could have played that out year to year. And I don't think you'd have been happy about that. Maybe he would have held out. This is before the new CBA. But they. cut him at the end of his fifth year option. They cut him before that extension even really began. They cut him after five seasons to go play for Atlanta. And instead of paying him what they could have paid him year to year, they paid him like $20 million more and then ate a bunch of dead money to get rid of him. Same thing happened to the Cowboys with Gill and Smith when they gave Gill and Smith a deal. This is something that Cowboys have done time after time and been punished for doing so. It's part of how they manage their cap. They have to get those deals done as quickly as possible. They run them for as long as possible to reduce the salary cap considerations. But it's not ideal.

But Mays, this is my question for you. If you could give Jerry Jones truth serum, do you think he would regret making this pick or giving Ezekiel Elliott that contract? Yes. I don't think he would. The contract may be the pick, no. The pick know the contract, yes. Doing it two years early, I think, is what they would regret.

I think he would say I shouldn't have given into a player who was holding out. I think that's how he thinks more than doing it early. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think those two things are connected, though. Sure, I agree. But, I mean, it could have worked out much better for the Cowboys, and it did work out better for them later in the draft. Yeah, it worked out much better for them later in the draft. We'll get to that.

All right, let's talk about the J-1-Ramsey trade and just the impact it's had throughout the league, right? So going back through the Jalen Ramsey time line, I totally forgot about the mysterious back injury and how he missed a few games that year. And so this starts, I believe, the animus between Jalen Ramsey and the Jaguars when he was called out by Tom Cawflin for missing voluntary workouts that April. Do you remember what happened at training camp? I don't think so. He showed up the training camp that year with a literal Brinks truck. Oh, the Brinks truck. I wasn't sure if that was the year.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. And a hype man. I would honestly have paid, I would pay $1,000 if I could have been in the room with Tom Coughlin to see his reaction to jail. Like hearing Jalen Ramsey outside the facility with this Brink's truck and this hype man with a megaphone. So, I mean, it didn't take long for things to go off the rails. Week two, he had to fight with Doug Marone on the sideline. That's when the mysterious back injury came into play. He was traded by October.

So it was only a couple months from the Brink's truck to him being out of time. town. And in 20, so obviously that happens, right? And I think on the Jaguar side of this, I'm not trying to just like take a pot shot and oversimplify this. That entire situation where you bring in Tom Coughlin to be the stabilizing force and now you have kind of a new organizational direction with Tom Coughlin and this hard ass approach that you've taken that leads to NFLPA concerns and plays and illegal approach. Let's be clear here. Against the rules of the NFL. I mean, so many. so many problems with it. But as part of that,

you have a top five defensive player in the league who's 24, 25 years old. So you know what? Fuck it. I'm out of here. And you trade that guy. And then eventually, with the two picks you get that you traded for,

you pick Kalevin Chason, who has 44 pressures in two years and played 380 snaps last year and Travis E.T. I don't like to lean into into this is why bad teams stay bad. But I do think that the Jalen Ramsey Fiasco in Jacksonville as an example of why bad teams stay bad.

Well, I mean, just think about the picks they had. They had, I believe, six consecutive top five picks. And do you remember who they landed with those picks? Blake Bortles. Blake Bortles was 2014. Luke Jokle was the second overall pick in 2013. Jalen Ramsey. Jalen Ramsey.

Leonard Fournette was the last one. Mm-hmm. Divvitt to where Dante Fowler. Yeah. And then the one before it. Dave Caldwell got there was Justin Blackman. I mean, I think, you know, when you have six consecutive top five picks and you would look back and take one of them again. And like several of them were disasters. I mean, that's what the bad organization is. And that's why when you have a

jail on Ramsey, if you're doing that, like you can't count on trading him and getting on drafting well to replace him. Like, you have to hope that you get lucky. I mean, Jalen Ramsey, like this was not an organization that drafts and develop players well and landed Jalen Ramsey and made him to the great player he is. Like, this organization had Jailen Ramsey kind of fall into their laps. And then the moment they had to trade him got 30 cents on the dollar for him in terms of value. So I, you know, I am the foremost proponent of trading for draft picks and the value with draft picks, but this is the downside when you are not a good enough organization to take advantage of them.

So on the other side of that, as we mentioned at the top of the show, if we're looking at pick for player traits, trading multiple high-level draft picks for a player and giving that player an extension, there have been several examples of that over the last five to ten years, right? Kalil Mack, Laramie Tunsell, Jamal Adams, we just got two more with the receivers this spring. The only one that I think has been kind of an unqualified success up to this point is the Rams trading two first round picks and giving an extension to Jalen Ramsey and what he has been for the Rams. Correct. He is in a world all his own in this conversation. In 2020,

his first full season with the Ramsey, the best defense in football, I mean, they yielded him in ways that no other cornerback in the NFL really is right now in the ways that he's utilized. He was the first team all pro the last two years. They were sixth and past defense devoid this year, 12th in EPA in the past on defense. They paid a combined $6.4 million to their other three corners this year. Yes. They're 22nd in cap spending in their secondary in 2021. And that's with Ramsey making $10 million.

And this is incredible. He's one of the most valuable players in the league. I mean, for a guy who is coming off of a possibly career threatening back injury to play at this level, is really remarkable. It's just, I mean, it's amazing. And that's why I wanted to do this is that beyond just the Ramsey, Zeke Elliott, sliding doors moment for those two teams, that trade ultimately helps win the Rams of Super Bowl. That's why teams do it, right? But when we're saying these moves don't typically work for teams,

like teams are not stupid. They're not sitting there saying, oh, like, you know, they're not naive to what's happened in the past, but they're also human. They also take the best possible beneficial side of it for themselves. And it's not thinking, okay, well, you know, the Seahawks trading two first-term picks from Jamal Adams or the bear is trading two first-term picks for Kamala. I guess teams know those trades happened. But they're going to take – if they want to make this sort of deal, they're going to look

what happened with Jell and Ramsey and say, hey, the Rams gave up two first-round picks that were late in each round. They got a superstar cornerback who was in the prime of his career and won a Super Bowl in part because they made that move. Like I think it's not that we're smart. than teams, we're not in a position where we're desperate in the way that teams are desperate to have these moves work out. I think that Jalen Ramsey is an example of this going well. It's not the most common example. It's not the most likely outcome, but it's a reminder.

This is why teams make these sort of moves even before the Ramsey trade happened. All right. Our next kind of sliding doors moment, butterfly effect aspect of this, something you just wrote about, the Laramie Tunsell side of this. And it starts with the gas mask bong, which I still, one of the most surreal things I've ever dealt with in this business, sitting there in the auditorium theater at Roosevelt University in the loop down the street from where I live now and have that come across your timeline where Laramie Tunsell in a gas mask bong calls a guy, causes a guy who potentially could have been a top five pick to fall down to 13. Even now, talking about it is insane.

We're people allowed to say the word bong on television. Like, I feel like just, just like the real-time sessions about what are we allowed to call this must have been incredible. I said it on the radio today. I guess I should have thought about that before I did it. I don't think it's, I think it's fine. Like, that's what it is. Yeah, yeah. We're recording this literally on April 20th.

It's on 420. The weed is legal everywhere. But yeah, I mean, just, it's insane. Hold on. Is April 20th the weed purge for you? It's legal at a lot of places, I guess is what I'd say. It's legal where I am right now. All right. So you recently wrote about this.

I did. Just on a, just the broad strokes. Lay out the timeline of the Laramie Tunsel trade and the impact that it has had. Okay. So could we go back even further than the Laramette? Yes, absolutely. It starts with Dwayne Brown. Dwayne Brown held out.

One of the new deal. Bob McNair said, the now deceased owner of the Texans allegedly said some racist things. I think we can go past legend. He said some racist things. I apologize for it. The Texans almost held out of a game, almost a lot of practice. They trade Jane Brown immediately after that week when he had been sort of the leader of the Texans responding to Bob McNer's racist comments, trade him to the Seahawks, leaves him with a whole left tackle. They almost get Andre Dillard, the Eagles straight ahead of them for Andre Dillard.

That doesn't work out. They signed Matt Khalil, which was a nightmare. He's a mess in the preseason. And they panic and trade two first-term picks for Laramie Tunsell with the Miami Dolphins. That leads to the Texans eventually trading DeAndre Hopkins. It leads to the Tyree Kill and Devante Adams deals because DeGarrey Hopkins got a big extension way ahead of the market. And it leads to Miami, then having the draft capital to tank and then trade their first-runner to the Niners and get three more first-round picks. And the Niners getting three lands.

There's so many things that come to Dwayne Brown holding out and Laramie Tunsell getting drafted by the Miami Dolphins when in reality, if there had not been that gas-bask photo being leaked, I don't think there's any way he falls to the Dolphins, who, by the way,

didn't even need a left tackle at 12. They had Juan James, who was the first-time picket, right tackle, and Brandon Albert on the left side. He was not a position of need for Miami, so he goes somewhere else. The entire draft is different if Laramie Tunsel does not have this leak to his Twitter account moments before.

the draft begins. And the best part is it comes all the way back around. They use some of the draft capital that they eventually got from the Laramette Tunsell deal to trade for Tyree Kill, who was only available in part because of the DeAndre Hopkins extension that only happened because the Texans eventually traded for Larry Meadunzel. I've never seen the butterfly effect, but I get the butterfly effect confused with what was the other Ashton Coochter movie where he is, is it the box? was he in the box? The one where if you press it, like three people in the world die? Yes. I don't remember if he was in that or not.

Well, we'll look it up afterwards. But yeah, I mean, obviously, so much changes based on the- He was not in the box. Who was the male lead in the box? That would be James Marsden. Oh, that's close enough. Same thing. I remember the Cameron Diaz was in it, but I do not remember that it was James Marsden.

I remember it was the guy. who made Donnie Darko and the really insane movie after Donnie Darko who made the box. Richard Kelly? Yes. I'm really glad that we got a box reference. That's the box reference in while talking about Laramie Macelle here. Well, I mean, you got the box and we got backup Cowboys running back Rod Smith in the podcast. So super topical for athletic football show listeners.

Yeah. I mean, obviously so much changes with the Laramie Monsel dropping to 12. I think the Ravens probably take him ahead of Ronnie Stanley. I think maybe the Titans take Laramie Tunsell instead of Jack Conklin. I mean, there's lots of different things that could happen. Basically, we're just trying to point out here is just so much changes in the NFL based on this one random, tiny bizarre. Still, by the way, totally unexplained thing that dropped Laramie Tunsell in the first round here. So there's one more kind of, again, that butterfly effect time travel moment that I want to get to.

And that is the Cowboys alternate timeline. If they do, if they, so I forgot how open Jerry Jones was about this. Yeah, weirdly, like very clear. The day after the draft, he was asked about this and he's like, oh, yeah, I regret already not paying up to trade up for Paxton Lynch. This is after they'd already drafted that Prescott. He said this. So it wasn't just Paxton Lynch, as you probably remember. The Cowboys did want to trade up for Paxton Lynch and the Broncos beat them much.

And then they wanted Connor Cook and the Raiders traded up ahead of them. And Jerry Jones was furious. They had to settle as their third choice for Dak Prescott, who might be, I think you could make the case for Patrick Mahomes, but I would say one of the three or four best draft picks of the past decade, right? They paid him $4 million over his first four years. Totally. And he started the entire time.

Total. $4 million. All right. What's amazing about the Broncos thing, do you remember who the Broncos traded up with to go get Paxton Lynch? I don't. Who was it? Seattle. Oh. So because they made that trade to go get Paxton Lynch and Paxton Lynch flames out, six years down the road, five years down the road, they need to give up two first round picks and two second round picks to trade for Seattle's quarterback.

That was one of the reasons they didn't need a quarterback in the 2016 draft. This isn't even the remember some guys podcast. This is the Remember Some Trades podcast, which I like, frankly. I mean, it's amazing when you think about that. And then the other thing I think to consider, I mean, obviously with Denver, that sends them into the quarterback wilderness again. And that defined their entire franchise over in the post-Paeton Manning era and kind of force them to make that Russell Wilson deal.

And they're in a fine spot now. But that's where they were for a very long time. With Dallas, it's remarkable to look at the. the numbers associated with Dak Proscott, to think of them looking into Dak Prescott in the fourth round and think about how little they did with it. That's fair. I did write that before they traded for Amari Cooper. They're wasting this incredible asset in the way that the Seahawks did not with Russell Wilson. They won a Super Bowl, went to a second, almost won a second Super Bowl. And they, you know, were not perfect. They traded the first round pick for Percy Harvin. They did some things they probably

would not do again. But they had such an advantage. with Russell Wilson and the other, of course, incredible players. It goes back to what we said about Jared Gough and Carson Wentz. You can make mistakes. It's okay to make mistakes. The year in 2017, when the Rams had one of the best offenses in the league with Sean McVeigh, the most expensive player on their offense by far was Tavon Austin. They were paying of $14 million.

And sometimes that's okay when you have the wiggle room and the margin for error that that quarterback contract gives you. And you look at it, you mentioned Russell Wilson. If you look at the list of quarterbacks who were drafted under the new CBA and early in the draft that played to the level that made them worth a second contract, right? They eventually were going to get one. Almost to a man, those guys have either been to a Super Bowl or been to the doorstep of a Super Bowl. Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Jared Gough, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow. a couple exceptions.

Derek Carr, I think, is one of them. Andrew Luck and Deshawn Watson. But to waste those guys requires immense organizational negligence. Yeah. And Andrew Luck, Deshawn Watson, and Dak Prescott, in that stretch where they were on those rookie deals, all of them had one playoff win. And we give the Colts and the Texans a lot of shit for that. And I don't think we give the Cowboys the same amount. We should.

I mean, we absolutely should, right? And I think, you know, I mean, they deserve credit for landing on DAC, but clearly not much, given that he was not their first or second choice. The thing that comes to mind for me, when I look at Dak Prescott, is that. But also, I think just the idea that I always hate when I hear people say, oh, there's not enough quarterbacks to go around. Like, the reality is we have no idea what the 32 best quarterbacks in football are. We're not good at sorting through those guys. Like the Cowboys landing on Dak as a fourth-round pick and having to have Tony Irmo get hurt for Dak to have the opportunity to play. And he was good in the preseason. But there's an absolutely universe where Tony Romo is healthy. Dak plays one game and is mediocre because he has no experience and doesn't have time to get a second or third start. And the Cowboys go in a totally different direction.

And Dak is selling insurance at this point of his life. And that's not because he's not a good player because he's a really good player. Romo himself was a UFA where I think the only Cowboys only really does. he was good because John Payton was there and took a liking to Tony Romo. You know, there's guys out there. Not every fourth-th-up picker, not every UFA is like this, but there's more talented quarterbacks out there who don't look like Paxton Lynch than we give credit to. And so I think when I think about those quarterbacks and how we're constantly worried, where are these next quarterbacks coming from? There's not enough good quarterbacks out there. There's not enough

six foot six quarterbacks who stand in the pocket who have killer arms. There's a lot of guys who don't look like that who are pretty valuable and who can be effective players. And if the Cowboys sort of without having a choice had to go through two of those guys and landed on them even though they weren't trying to in the first place. And now the Cowboys are in like this weird holding pattern as a franchise where they're good, they've drafted well. I think they've made a lot of good decisions.

But are the Cowboys better now than they were at the end of last season? No. Rast or was? No. Absolutely not. They're definitely not. And Stephen Jones came out this week. He said that you don't win Super Bowls in the offseason.

I would, I beg to differ with Stephen on that point. You know, the team that just won the Super Bowl, they took a big step towards doing that in the offseason. The team that won the Super Bowl the year before that signed a guy named Tom Brady in the offseason. And they got their right tackle in that draft and plugged him in. I think a lot of teams recently, 2019, the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, the year they give Tyron Matthew a bunch of money. teams wielding some of their financial flexibility to go get some players and wanting to win the Super Bowl, I think has a huge role in which team wins the Super Bowl.

Also, the Bengals just did like most of their defense in free agency and almost won a Super Bowl. Like, that is not an accident. Yeah, I take some issue with that comment from Stephen Jones. All right, a couple more really quick ones here. The Niners traded up for Josh Garnett in this draft. They traded with the Chiefs to go do that. The Chiefs picked Chris Jones with the pick that the Niners traded away, which is just beautiful. And you know what?

Elstens out to me. And when we talk about these guys is the knock on Chris Jones, even coming into the draft was he doesn't have the motor. He doesn't take takes place off. He's not that guy every single snap. You could say the same thing about Robert and Kim Dice, who was picked about seven picks before him by the carlos. And I believe, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Robert and Comteche would be a bust everywhere. where maybe Chris Jones would have been a success everywhere.

I have to believe that there is some difference between Chris Jones getting drafted by the Chiefs and Robert and Camdice getting drafted by the Cardinals. And being in a better situation. And I think it's just a reminder that, you know, good organizations are, they get the benefit of having guys like that. Like they can take shots on guys like Chris Jones and they have them work out more often than these bad organizations do. And that is that coaching deserves a significant amount of the credit for that.

I also think that this draft has evidence that the line between a good organization and a bad organization is very thin. Because five years before they won a Super Bowl in this draft, the Bucs trade or drafted Verdon Hargaves with the 11th pick. And they traded up to take Robert E. Traited up. Trade it up. The 34th pick of value by the Chase Stewart chart for Roberto Aguio. By the way, Vernon Hargreaves might be the worst player in the NFL to get regular snaps over the last year. He's terrible.

And now and now we think the Bucs. are this wonderful organization that does everything right. After that, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin the following year, Vita Vaya, Carlton Davis, Devin White, Sean Murphy Bunting, Tristan Werf's, Antoine Winfield. Like, these arguments that, oh, this team is not how to draft or this team does know how to draft, they're so spacious. They're so based on small samples. Like, absolutely, Jason Lick could have been fired halfway through his run, and nobody would have batted an eye. And he's done a good job in recent years and won a Super Bowl. And yes, Tom Brady is part of that. But, But like, they've also drafted well.

That team was good before Tom Brady got there. They were okay. They were not good. They had a really, I think they had the bones of a very good team. They did for sure. And that is, that is a credit to how they drafted. And it's a reminder that like even the people who we think are geniuses in any one given moment probably are going to look pretty dumb at some point in the very near future. I mean, I don't want to pick on the bears.

But like, how many people were saying Ryan Pace was a genius that year they made the postseason? Like he was the executive, literally the executive of the executive. the year, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, absolutely. And think about other examples that are more based in draft success. I mean, think about how quickly it changed for the Seahawks. And the way we think about the Seahawks drafts now, after they went on, arguably the best three-year run a team has gone on in the modern era at the beginning of John Schneider's time.

To the point where literally their fans were trying to justify the Jamal Adams trade by saying, oh, we're just going to screw up our first round picks anyway. So might as well trade them for somebody else. All right. The last one that I have, this is another against just a small one. Kevin Byard and Justin Simmons were the first and last pick in the third round of this draft. They are all pro-level safeties now. Yep.

The two first safeties drafted in this class, guys picked in the first round, Carl Joseph and Keanu Neal. Ooh. I do really believe that it's a position where what we're looking for has shifted and should shift. If you look at the pre-draft kind of reviews and scouting reports on these guys, Kevin Byard, all rave reviews about it. his football IQ and what it was. But like, ah, is he physical enough? You know, he's an ankle tackler. What's his long speed like?

People were worried about Justin Simmons because he was skinny. And I just think that this is a position where it's so easy to get swayed by these monster hits and these guys that run 4-4 in the pre-draft process. And in reality, that's not what drives success at that spot. Well, the Raiders are not going to be pleased to hear this about Jonathan Abram, But yeah, I mean, I, you know, I certainly think that it tells us a couple things. Number one, that you can find those guys later in the draft and that you can take advantage of people who get blown away by the sort of physicality of safeties who can make big hits. And there obviously is value in that.

Like, I don't think the Seahawks regretted, you know, having Camp Chancellor on their roster. Of course not. But he was a fourth round pick. He was a fourth round pick, exactly. You know, I think you guys, certainly on this show, I've had conversations about the importance of safeties and the value of. of safeties. And I know there's sort of like analytics heavy discussion on, on safeties and how valuable they can be. And I think, of course, safeties are important. But I mean, you know, you were able to find two really valuable

players there in the third round. And I think that's, that's easier to do at some positions than it is and others. Anything else? Any other takeaways that you wanted to hit before we get out here? Do you want to talk about the Browns or the Jets? I mean, the Jets, this, the Darren Lee, Christian Hakenberg back to back is all you need to understand that era of Jets football. Do you want to hear another quick sliding doors one? Sure. So the Jets draft Darren Lee. All the scouting reports say, hey, maybe as a weak side linebacker on a 4-3, he's a 3-4-inside linebacker, never turns out to be a useful player.

The Jets don't get what they want out of Dron Lee. They end up paying C.J. Mosley $17 million a year when the market was 13 and a half. They paid so much that even the Ravens were like, eh. He's like a franchise icon halfway through his career, and we're still good. That probably gets back McCagin fired. It probably causes Bobby Wagon to get cut by the Seahawks because they had to give him an extension to match that T.J. Mosley's career has been pretty anonymous since he left Baltimore. They draft Patrick Queen, who has not been all that exciting for them.

That totally changes things. And then Christian Hakenberg, I mean, I'm not going to make fun of Christian Hakenberg. That's not the point. But if he works out, the Jets don't draft Sam Darnold. And if Sam Darnel works out, they don't draft Zach Wilson. So that starts an entire other cycle of the end. NFL when it comes to the Jets. So just a bizarre chain of events for two of the worst picks a team can make.

And I think it's honestly more about the Jets and it is about those two particular players. Yeah, 100%. And I think that's, again, it explains the franchise and explains why they were in the position that they were in. 100%. All right. That was fun. What would you say?

It's some drafts podcast. Some, remember some trades podcast. Remember some trades. Remember some trades podcast. I do think it's useful, though. I really do think it's to look back and just think about the impact this stuff has and how wide-ranging it is. And now six years later, so many of the moves that happened during that draft help us understand why the league looks the way that it looks. And you know, it's crazy?

We're six years into this draft. And I'm still not sure if Will Fuller was a good pick of 21. I had a very similar thought because there was that runner receivers right there. Will Fuller, Josh Doxon, LaQuantrell. he's better than those two guys, but I don't know if you take him again in 21. I think maybe depends on what happened in the prior week. We could do a whole thing on Josh Doxon and La Cron Trudrow if we wanted to, but we're out of time here. Barnwell, thanks very much for doing this, buddy.

I always appreciate it. Really appreciate the time. My pleasure. All right, guys, that's all we got for today. Sincerely appreciate Barnwell for spending the time with us. Thank you guys for listening. We'll be back tomorrow with the show that I am very, very excited about. I'm not going to spoil the surprise for who's coming on,

but it's one of my favorite shows, I think, that we've ever done. In the meantime, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I would sincerely appreciate that. Please subscribe to The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. A reminder, next week, Thursday night, Friday night. Me, Dane, Nate, live from Las Vegas, breaking down the draft. Every single pick on Thursday night for round one, on Friday night for rounds two and three.

De Ante Lee's going to join us. Lindsay Jones is going to join us. You guys can watch on YouTube, on Twitter, wherever you watch the Athletic Football Show. Very, very excited about that. In the meantime, talk to you guys later. This was The Athletic Football Show.