The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Deshaun Watson trade rumors, what’s at stake for Jared Goff and can the Browns overcome injuries with Lindsay Jones + a New England Patriots team visit with Matthew Fairburn

Episode Date: October 21, 2021

Robert Mays and Lindsay Jones discuss the latest with the Deshaun Watson trade discussions as the deadline approaches in less than two weeks. Plus, what’s at stake for Jared Goff vs. the Rams and can the Browns overcome their long list of injuries? Finally, The Athletic’s Matthew Fairburn joins the show to talk about what he’s learned covering the Patriots this season, Mac Jones’ development and whether or not New England can contend this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. The Athletic Football Show is presented by State Farm, because like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today is Thursday, October 21st. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. Matt Fairburn, our new Patriots writer is going to be joining us a little bit later for our weekly team visit.

Before we do that, though, I'm thrilled to welcome my good friend, Lindsay Jones. Lindsay, how you doing? I'm great. How about you, Robert? I am doing very well. It is another week in the NFL. It is week seven in the NFL. We were going to dig into some of the injury realities associated with the league right now.

I think that was kind of the big topic of discussion. Just a lot of the news was centered around who was hurt, who was going to play. Obviously, the Browns were at the forefront of that. We are going to get to some of that a little bit down the road. But right before we started recording today, there was a report from John McLean, who for people who do not know is a long time Houston Chronicle, who has been covering the Texans since their inception is kind of an authoritative voice on the franchise. He reported earlier today that it sounds like there could be a deal done for Deshawn Watson as soon as

the end of this week. And with the trade deadline a couple weeks away, it's not shocking. But it feels like there's a lot to unpack here. I don't know how far down this road you want to get right now. But it definitely felt like something we should talk about because it's going to be a huge topic of discussion here over the next couple days. For sure. And this was all kind of developing as we, just as we were starting to record tonight. So I think there's probably a lot that's going to be developing tonight into Wednesday or this is Wednesday into Thursday. And certainly over the next, you know, coming days, coming weeks, depending on how long this takes. It's very complicated, right? And we've talked about a lot of so complicated.

There's no, it's really hard to look at this from a purely football standpoint because if this was strictly a football story, a trade would have happened probably a long time ago. Because or not at all or not at all. Or they just refuse to make it happen because he was playing. So, but basically just to kind of reset where exactly we are right now. There is nothing that is preventing Deshaun Watson from playing right now from a league standpoint. The Texans are basically going through this year so far as if he's under a paid suspension. He has been on the 53 man roster all season.

He has been inactive. He has, you know, expressed dating back to early last off season that he had no interest in playing for the Texans. the Texans seem to not be interested in having him play, probably because of all the off-field allegations that are going on with him. He has 22 civil lawsuits that have been filed against him with allegations of sexual misconduct and sexual assault. Ten criminal complaints that are currently being investigated by police in Houston. No formal charges have been filed. So it's all really complicated because it's not just so easy to say, like, okay, the dolphins are desperate right now. They're one in five. Two, it hasn't been playing great. They're offense.

has been stagnant. They've been long, they have long been believed to be the frontrunner, the team that would be most likely to pull off a trade for Deshaun Watson. But you just can't look at it strictly from a football context. And there's a lot of questions that we do not have answers to right now. The biggest question that I've gotten, I've tried to address in columns dating back to probably going back to March even is, you know, what mechanisms are out there for a situation like this with Deshawn Watson. Could he go on the commission exemplist? Could he be suspended? And we just don't have answers for that right now. I will say a trade to a team like Miami who would want him to play. I mean, I don't believe that the dolphins would trade for Deshawn Watson in the middle of the season

to do what the Texans are doing and making him their inactive third quarterback. So if he were to be traded to a team that intended to play him, that would force Roger Goodell's hand, or it should at least force Roger Goodell's hand to make some sort of announcement or decision or provide some sort of clarity about this situation. It's an unprecedented situation. So the fact that the league has largely been okay to rest on precedent here, that's not going to hold up once he's in a situation to potentially play. He probably shouldn't play. And that's why something should be done. And it does seem like this would force the league's hand and just push them to kind of make a decision in a way that they haven't at this point.

I mean, there's just so many naughty things to get into here. I mean, the Texans, or excuse me, with the dolphins, yeah, they're one in five. And this is a plan moving forward. But as a franchise, like, it seems so difficult to push all your chips in at this point for Watson with everything that's going on. I mean, I hesitate to even get into some of this stuff because until it actually happens and until we actually have to explore some of it, it's all speculation. And there's just so many different things. you have to take into account here. Yeah, I mean, we don't know. I mean, the grand jury has not been

called yet, or this case hasn't been brought before a grand jury. We don't know if formal charges will come. We don't know what will come out of a trial. We don't know what it's going to come out of the civil trial. I think the only thing we can say with certainty about the civil process is that is going to take a very long time. And this is not something that we're going to have resolution for next week, next month, maybe not even next year without some sort of settlement situation. I mean, this is just not something that is going to move quickly. It has not moved quickly. I mean, if you would have told us back, whatever, March 20th, when this was all kind of starting, that we'd be not that much closer to any resolution in the end of October than we were then.

You know, that's really where we are right now. So this is going to be a big developing story. It's going to dominate your Twitter feeds. There's going to be a lot of really bad takes on there. And it is my goal to make sure that we are not the ones with bad takes. Hopefully this is a place where you can at least have some nuanced conversations and understanding about why this is all really complicated and not as easy as just saying, like, well, how would he fit in the dolphins, ex, you know, offensive scheme, right? Yeah, I don't want to do that. I just don't think there's any reason to do that.

There are just so many different things to take into account. And I'm sure we're going to hear a ton of different rumblings and rumors and whether, does this does this news affect how other teams are how urgent they are to get involved in this? Right. Was it for any sort of reason? I mean, there's just so many. And that is certainly fair. And we will.

It's two weeks away. I mean, is this like a get in, get in now or we're going to trade them? If you were flirting around, if you were one of those other teams, I don't know, the Eagles or the Broncos or one of these other teams that could have a long-term quarterback question, this is your chance. Because if they don't pull the trigger, the dolphins are going to. Are the Texans trying to drive up the market? I mean, there's a lot of those things that are fair questions to ask. And I know our Houston Texans reporter, Aaron Reese, is going to be doing a ton of. reporting on this. A lot of us are doing digging and we will definitely have a lot more to get into

as this develops over the next few days and weeks. Yeah. So obviously check back at the athletic for everything that we're going to be doing on this. I'm sure we will be talking about it on this show as well. But for now, we're going to move on. We're going to talk about who has the most at stake in the NFL in week seven. This is something we do every single week. Lindsay, why don't you kick us off? Yeah, this is kind of a fun week. There's some interesting, a few interesting games. There aren't as many that are like jumping off the screen at me as did the last couple weeks. But for me, the biggest storyline of the week is in a game that's actually not that interesting,

but it's Jared Goff returning to Los Angeles to play the Rams. And I'm putting Jared Goff as the guy who has the most at stake this week. And it's not so much as how will he play when he's facing his former team. It's more like he is clearly at a crossroads in his career. He's at a really bad place. The lions that are in a really bad place. He has been publicly called out by his head coach, who has then walked back, walked that back a little bit in the days since they got blown out by the Bengals.

And, you know, Dan Campbell's up. Post-Came press conferences are a roller coaster, man. They, ooh, it's must watch. There's a reason I'm not an NFL head coach. I think I'm too emotional to be in charge of anyone. And he reacts to some of this stuff the way I probably would, which is, again, there's a reason that I'm not in charge of anybody. He's in charge of an NFL franchise. Yeah, it's quite a roller coaster where you get the immediate postgame Sunday where we've had tears a couple of weeks ago.

The tears are kind of what I'm referring to. We have had him directly calling out his quarterback, which isn't necessarily unwarranted. You know, Jared Goff has been objectively bad for much of this season. But then, you know, a couple days later, he's like, we really support. And, you know, we just, we do, we all need to play better. And I believe in him and all that sort of stuff. But this game has so many just like emotional layers to it. Jared Goff's exit from Los Angeles is one of the weirdest things that has happened in the NFL in a while, you know, where you go from taking a guy to a super bowl, you're taking a team to a Super Bowl a couple of years ago where he played well in a bunch of games to get them in position to go to the Super Bowl.

So, you know, it's not like he didn't have good times in Los Angeles, but very clearly fell out of favor with Sean McVay pretty quickly. Sean McVey found a way to upgrade while on vacation in Cabo, which this was another sort of scenario that would be, you know, very scandalous, right? But instead it was like finding your new football spouse while you're on vacation in the offseason. The Lions gave Stafford the right to seek a trade out, right? Like it's no longer tampering when all of that stuff. is, oh wow. Yeah, no, it wasn't. Yeah.

No, I don't believe it was a tampering situation. It's just, you know, imagine being Jared Goff and finding out that your coach is finding your replacement while on vacation together in Cabo. I mean, Jared Goff has been through it. He has been through a lot. And this is going to be, you know, there's not a lot of good feelings from people within the Rams organization anymore about, about Jared. And it's not because they don't like him.

I mean, I think everybody there respects him as a person and knows that he went through. a lot. But I think there's just a lot of, wow, we're in such a better place without him. And they watch him struggle in the red zone. They've seen him throw four picks and lose four fumbles. He's been really, really vulnerable to the strip sacks this year. And there's a lot of just like, who, glad that guy's not our problem anymore. And, you know, it's so it's just, it's really uncomfortable. And I feel bad for Jared Gough. It's going to be a really rough, I imagine it's going to be a really rough week for him. It's probably going to be a really rough day for him. This is not, I can't imagine that the Rams crowd is going to like greet him super warmly.

Hopefully they're not rude to him, but it's, it's not going to be, there's not going to be a lot of really good feelings, I think, for Jared Goff in his return. And that's not even getting into Matthew Stafford having to play against the Lions, who, you know, similar to Tom Brady a couple weeks ago playing against playing against a team that he had been with for more than a I feel like the feelings about Matthew Stafford are just completely positive from Lions fans. Yeah. They can they understand maybe not completely. But I think there's an overarching understanding among the Lions faithful that Matthew Stafford

was not an issue when it comes to the Lions struggles over the last 10 years or so. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I very much get that sense from people in Detroit. My editor, Alison, at the Athletic, lives in Detroit. She's got a really good pulse on what's going on in Detroit. And she and I've talked about this a lot. And there is very much a sense that it's like they just are happy he's in a in a better place and is wanting good things for him. And it's going to be really uncomfortable on Sunday. And I know this isn't our appointment viewing like what I can't wait to watch. But I

will just do you a favor, Detroit Lions fans. We will watch this game. So you don't have to. Like go find a pumpkin patch. If you're a Lions fan, just press pause. I mean, just sim to end on this season. It's totally fine. Go get some apple cider donuts. Yeah. Just spend some time with your family.

Yeah, take a pass on this one. It's fine. The Jared Goff thing is, I think it's such a product of the moderate NFL. The reason I say that is because I don't think we saw a lot of teams that were willing to move on from a quarterback like Jared. Gough in the past. If you had a guy who you could win with and you had shown the ability to win with him, I think most teams kind of stick with that. You know, you commit to a workable offense because the fear of the unknown is so great. And I think the RAM situation was

unique in the sense that they could go get a guy like Matthew Stafford and the upgrade was clear. Like they wouldn't have moved out from Jared Gough just to do it. But I can't remember a guy who went to a Super Bowl, almost won a Super Bowl, was part of a turnaround in a place, played at a high level at times. They were a top five offense for the first couple of years that Jared Gough was there with Sean McVeigh. And then two years later,

he just shipped out of town. A guy who was the toast of Los Angeles at one point, more like it was the McVeigh-Goff partnership, right? There was an understanding like, this can work. This is working. And then a couple years later, he's just shipped out to Detroit. Like on a human level, it's hard to deal with.

Like you've committed to this version of yourself and this version of your life. And then suddenly you're just in Detroit on this rebuilding team in a situation that could not be any more disparate than the one that you just left. Yeah. I mean, he's been on a really bad team before. I mean, the Rams team that he came into as a rookie was really, really, really bad. I believe he started Owen 7 once he finally became the starter there. It might have even been 0 and 9. But it was a really bad situation.

They had really good defensive players, but they were very limited. It was a really rough, a rough start. So it's almost like, you know, he's been at the lowest of the lows of the NFL. He's been at the highest. And now he's all the way back here. And look, he has not played well. This should not, this should not be written off as like we're giving Jared Gough a pass because he has not been, he has not played well.

And the fact that the Lions have not won a game, he is a big part of that. They have a lot of other things going on. We're going to talk about some of the teams that are having really bad injury issues. The lions are right up there. I mean, they have had as bad of injury luck as anybody in the NFL. You can question some of the Red Zone play calling. You can look at the offensive talent around him, the skill position players that they have, specifically with their wide receiver group.

But if Jared Goff, I mean, he was the number one overall pick in the draft a couple years ago. At one point, I believe it was the highest thing. You know, highest paid NFL, you know, highest paid quarterback. for probably a brief amount when he got his new contract in LA. So he should be able to help make them a little bit better. But it's just a bad situation. And I feel really, I just feel bad for him. It's career whiplash.

Like it just think about like the change in perspective of how you, how you view yourself in the grander scheme of the league and how quickly that's changed for him. It's just, it's a lot. It's a lot to deal with. And I think that we're seeing that play out in real time. And it's tough because he's now moving into the situation where, you know, you're getting a lot of questions in Detroit,

about, well, do they bench him? Would that be the right move? Can you keep playing this guy? David Blow? David Blow or Tim Boyle, I believe, are their backup quarterback. So it's not like they have a good situation. There's no possibility of trading him. One, his salary is untradable right now. And who is trading for him? I mean, who's going to watch what's happened so far this year and say, yeah, that's the guy that we need to get into our building right now to be an answer at the quarterback position. That's not happening. So there's not like an immediate situation. But, you know, what, what's next for him?

I mean, do the lions cut him? That's what I think about that. Even that idea of trading him. Like three teams and three years, it's just, again, it has all changed so, so fast. Yeah. I mean, the lions are now putting themselves in a situation where thanks to the Jags winning a game last year, now they have the inside track to the number one overall pick. Do they draft a quarterback?

Do they try to do another year with Jared Gough? Do they look at next year's quarterback class and say, yikes, I don't, we don't want a quarterback with number one, which would be the most. lion's thing ever to have the number one overall pick. The year you get the number one overall pick. There's no quarterbacks. The year that there's no quarterbacks. So you take a you don't you take the best defensive player available and do one more year with Jared Gough and then then you cut him save yourself $30 million because they cut him next year. I think it's like almost $30 million that they have to eat. Oh, it's a lot. I mean it's we call that the

Browns. It's the taking Miles Garrett and then getting Baker Mayfield the next year. All right. I got mine here. For me, the teams that have the most at stake. I'm going to say The team's playing on Sunday night. I mean, Indy, if they lose this game, they go to two and five with a loss. And I thought, you know, after they beat the tech, even losing to Baltimore, I was like, oh, you know, if Tennessee loses to the bills, then I think there's still a chance that the Colts have kind of turned this around and elements of their roster can play better than they were earlier in the season.

Carson Wentz is playing okay. Their offensive line gets a little bit healthier. You know, can they give the Titans a run in that division? Now they're two and four. They lose to the Niners. They're two and five, and we kind of have. this weird lost season for Indianapolis, which even if you didn't think they were contenders this year, which I didn't.

I didn't think that they were even in the same class as the other really, really good teams in the AFC. I still expected them to be competitive in that division. And I think it really kind of sends you back to the drawing board if you're the Colts Brass. It's like, what are we really? Like, if we're being honest with ourselves and our assessment of where we are, what is the answer to that? And that's just a hard question that I didn't feel like the Colts were going to have to be answering at this point.

But there's a chance they're just out of it before we even get to Halloween. And that's a rough timeline for what this team was supposed to be, even if you didn't think they were a top three or four team in the conference. On the Niners side, it's kind of similar, right? They go to two and four with a loss. They're still in it because there's not really any clear hierarchy among those wildcard teams in the NFC. but I do think that there are teams on the upswing that they'll have to be competing with for that other wild card spot.

The Saints are only going to get better from here with all the guys they're getting back. I think the Minnesota is just a sneaky team that you don't really want to play against. I think their defense has a chance to be really good all season just because of Mike Zimmer and the talent that they have over there. I think they're playing pretty well. Kirk Cousins is playing well right now. Like among all the quarterbacks, among those NFC wild card teams, whether it's the Saints, the Niners, the Bears, the Vikings, all of those teams.

Kirk Cousins is playing the best among all those quarterbacks. So there's a chance if the Niners go to two and four and they're looking at those other teams, looking up at those other teams, that they missed the playoffs in a year where people expected them to be a potential contender. So I think that both of these teams desperately need a win right now to kind of set their seasons back on the trajectory that they're looking for. I don't know what their heights truly are this year. I don't think either of them are probably going to be in the conversation, but I think both of them want more out of this year than they've gotten so far. The Niners are really intriguing to me because they're coming out of their byweek now.

And it looks like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be their starting quarterback on Sunday. Trey Lance has a knee injury. He's not practicing on Wednesday. Kyle Shanahan said it seems unlikely that he'd be able to play. Jimmy Gropolo has got that calf, kept him out of games before their by week, and now he's been testing it out, but seems like he's going to go. He was the guy who came out and met the media today. He is practicing. So it just feels like they're kind of in this weird spot where we've been wondering what their quarterback situation is going to look like, what their offense is going to look like depending on who the quarterback is.

And we're kind of now back at where we were week one, where this is Jimmy's team. And they're kind of in a, it's just a really important critical juncture. of their season, as you mentioned. I mean, I think the Rams and the Niners coming into the year at the same over under win total. And just think about what the Niners' offenses looked like compared to the Rams. And the Niners in general have looked like compared to the Rams. And the Rams look like a powerhouse. And the Niners, it just doesn't feel like that.

I mean, the offense has been efficient at times, but you still feel like they're kind of squeezing blood from Iraq when it comes to creating explosive plays with Garapolo, a quarterback. I mean, again, just it looks so much different than what a real true blue contender tends to look like at this point in the season. So just a kind of an interesting sliding doors moment for both of these teams, I think. All right. Let's get to our appointment viewing for this week. Lindsay, who can you not wait to watch in week seven? All right. So the Monday night football game between the Saints and the Seahawks has like infinite weird game potential, which so I'm really excited about that.

So there was not there was not like another game that I was like, oh, this is like a huge critical matchup. So this game, I think is the one that I'm going to, I will be doing some Girl Scout stuff, just like I was two weeks ago and all the John Gruden stuff broke. But I will be sitting down on the couch with my daughter so she can watch all of the weird stuff that is going to happen. I'm going to have to try to explain to her, James Winston, which seems really like a really big challenge to try to explain a five-year-old. The James Winston football experience. Or just Gino Smith. Try explaining the Gino Smith trajectory to her. Like, well, he was drafted by the, by the Jets in the second round. And then he was supposed to be their court.

And then he got punched in the face. And then this guy with a beard stole his job. And it was that, that in and of itself is a difficult conversation. It's going to be very complicated. But so this game, but I think it's also kind of sneaky interesting because we, the saints have kind of fallen off of my radar a little bit over the past

couple weeks. One, because they were on a bye week last week. And then they just had some games that weren't as interesting. Like I believe they played the Washington football team before the bye week. So that was one of the games. that, you know, I caught back up on after it was over. But now, as you kind of already alluded to, they're starting to get healthy. I think they could be in a really good spot moving forward.

And the NFC is not as weird as the AFC, which we're going to get into in a little bit. So they have a chance to go into Seattle and win a game that's going to put them in a really good spot in that NFC wildcard race. And it's a game that they can't really afford to lose, knowing that they still have, they play the Bucks in week 8. So they just have, you know, they're coming out of their buy. So I just want to say the Saints come out and be, you know, the best version of themselves. I want to see good James. Do we have the expectation that we're going to have good James for four quarters? Probably not.

That's going to make it interesting. But I want to just see them take the next progression of what more can this offense do? Are they going to continue to kind of shield James Winston? Or is he going to be the reason that they win games? I think, the hope is when you get everyone back, you can minimize his impact. in the game as much as possible, where, like, let's say over the next three weeks, I don't know the exact time table is for Michael Thomas, but let's say over the next two to three weeks, they get back to Ron Armstead, Eric McCoy, Michael Thomas, Trey Kwan Smith,

David on Yamada, Kwan Alexander, and Marcus Davenport, which is very realistic. This is a three-and-two team that has been playing without a good chunk of its really good players. They're still a top-five offense. They could be sitting there at four and two after having played the first third of the season without a chunk of the guys we know from that roster. It's impressive. I think the only team that has done a better job of kind of dealing with their injury situation and keeping rolling would be Baltimore. The Packers have done a relatively good job as well without David Bactiari and Jaira and Jair Alexander.

But I think Baltimore and the Saints have lost more guys and still been able to kind of keep the train on the tracks. And that's impressive. And they have no long-term injury concerns really with that team. You don't have any stars that have been lost for the season. And really, you're getting reinforcements. I mean, the cavalry is here as you have other teams that are getting more and more injured. So I don't know what the final product looks like. I assume it's a let's have James throw the ball 19 times a game

and have every other aspect of our roster be better than what you guys can trot out. And I don't think that's the worst plan in the world. And I think that will work against the Seahawks. Seahawks are in a really bad place right now. We're going to have to have a very existential Seahawks conversation here down the back half of the season because we'll get Michael Sean Dugard for a team visit soon. We already did. He was on after week one. Oh, no. Yeah, you're right.

It was terrible timing for me. Spring him back. But we'll figure that out. All right. My appointment viewing this week is just Derek Henry. Just Derek Henry, period. We don't really get a chance to talk about the Monday night games on this show just because of the timing and the way that we, the schedule is. He was a revelation again on Monday.

Nothing he does at this point should be surprising. I mean, the way that he's just in his own world. He's in his own world at that position. I still think Nick Chub is like a special back. I love watching Nick Chub run. But when you consider the usage and effectiveness of Derek Henry and just what he is for that offense, it's absolutely wild. He has 51 more carries than any other running back in the entire league.

He's on pace for 400 carries this year. And it hasn't dinged his effectiveness at all. They're fourth and rushing DVOA. He is shattering every, like, norm there is about a running back and workload. It's insane. He has 587 yards after contact this season. That's 64 more yards than anyone else has, period. Of any kind.

He, in the fourth quarter this year, has produced 13.4 total EPA in the fourth quarter, in the fourth quarter. He's been more two touchdowns in the fourth quarter over the first six games of the year. It's absolutely wild. He scored a touchdown on every 16.2 carries, which is the seventh best mark in the league. When you're getting 30 carries a game, there should be an inverse relationship between your volume and your efficiency. And it just doesn't apply to him. The rules and how we understand the value of that position and what you can be for an

offense in the modern NFL, he completely flips them on its head. They've had to deal without Julio Jones, without A.J. Brown, with a new offensive coordinator. They've gotten their offensive winding that they missed lost Taylor the one halfway through that Monday night game, whatever it was. And their offense has survived because he has been an absolute monster. I mean, what he does for them is unlike anything anybody else of that position does for their team. And it's allowed them to sustain. I mean, it's not. hyper efficiency. If you look at it, I mean, they're still, they're rushing success rate isn't that great.

When you run the ball that much, your teams, you know you're running the ball. It's hard to be truly, truly dominant all of the time and as an outwire, but they're still able to create explosive plays. I mean, it's he just unlike anything. The experience of watching him is unlike any other running back in the league at this point. So who does he get the pleasure of running against the Kansas City Chiefs? And that's why I'm excited to watch it. That's why I'm excited to watch it because there's a chance he has like 360 yard touchdowns.

The physicality he runs with is amazing, right? I mean, just obviously when you watch him, just his stature, that is unlike any other back that we've really ever seen, I mean, especially in the modern era. But the speed, it's the fact that after he gets to the second level, he can take one to the house any time. there are so few running backs of any build that have that level of explosiveness. And the fact that this is a 250-pound guy that can make a house call anytime he touches the ball, it's fucking crazy. Like, it's absolutely insane. I just, I don't know. I don't know what you do to try to defend him.

I know there was the clip of Micah Hyde kind of like squaring him up on Monday night. And people, you know, on Twitter it was like, oh, how scary. And like, Micahide literally did the best. you could possibly do. But how freaking terrifying is that to be the high safety, the only guy left and see that guy coming? I mean, there's not enough

money in the world. And there is not enough money in the world. It's, it's one of my favorite kind of things to consider is I might actually make a team of it at some point. Like the dudes who are just you don't want to go to the office, like that you don't want to go to work team

that you have to play against. And there are a lot of defensive players. are like Cam Hayward. You're not enough money on planet Earth to make me go there for 60 plays and have to deal with Cam Hayward. There's just aren't. Absolutely not. Derek Henry is a running back on that team.

If you are going to have to go in. That's why he averages 6.5 yards per carry in the fourth quarter or whatever it is. Because by that point, you just don't want to do it anymore. You just have no interest in having to tackle him at that point. And it's really fun to watch. Watching him just kind of slowly break a team's will and the ability to do that after getting all of the carries that he's gotten. He's a special, special player.

So we're going to set his line for Sunday. You and I are not the betting folks. We can run this by Nate and Sheal on the next show, but at like over under 250 rushing yards. That sounds good. That sounds good on 58 carries because at this point, that's what they do. Because why not?

I would run them all 50. I would give my running back 58 carries against the Chiefs, even if he's not Derek Henry. There are worse plans if you're the Titans' offense. I feel confident saying that. All right. Every week we ask our one big question heading into that week. What is your one big question for week seven? Who is good in the AFC? Is anybody good in the AFC? I cannot figure it out. It's why when people are writing off the chiefs two weeks ago, it's like, guys, I wouldn't do that. They absolutely are going to be around here at the end.

Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, I'm very much guilty of this. I think a lot of us did why we went into this season thinking, okay, we're looking at the AFC and it is the chief. there's a small gap. There's another group of teams that it's the Bills, the Ravens, maybe the Browns in that conversation. Then there's kind of another gap. Now there doesn't seem to be a huge gap. I still think after Monday night, I still think the Bills are the best team in the AFC.

You know, I think they're one. I do too. Bad fourth down play call, not decision, fourth down play call and fourth down execution from winning that game, beating the Titans on Monday night football. And we would say, okay, the bills are clearly the best team in the AFC, but every AFC team now has at least one pretty bad loss on their resume.

There's not really a gap between the very top team, maybe between the first team and the sixth team, even the seventh team. I mean, I think we're getting separation from like the rest of the group, the group that's not going to make the playoffs. But that top group is so jumbled. And it's so hard for me to make sense of who's the best team, who's going to get hot at the right moment, And yeah, a lot of people want to write the Chiefs off right now.

And we make jokes about the Chief's defense because the Chief's defense is a joke. Like it objectively is a joke. But they still have the best quarterback on the planet and one of the best head coaches of all time. So you have to believe that they will be in every game. They will be in every game and we'll have a chance to, you know, do something really special in the postseason. But I just, I can't make sense of it. And I don't know if Week 7 is going to give us much clarity. on if the AFC is good or not.

We are going to get Chiefs, Chiefs Titans. That's going to be a really, really good one. But I just, I don't know. I don't know who it is. I don't know if this week's going to lose those answers, but I can't wait to find out. I want to see if last week and the way that they kind of found themselves with Brown and Julio back in the game,

especially A.J. Brown is an indication of where the Titans' offense goes from here. Because, I mean, this is a group that, even if you had questions about their defense or questions about how much better this team was than other versions of the Titans offense we'd seen over the last couple years. Still a lot of talent on that team. I mean, Tannahill can still do what you ask of him in that offense.

And they were rolling on Monday. And I would like to see if that version of it can stick around here. And if we can kind of pick up some steam playing against the Chiefs and keep it going over the next couple months. How did they lose to the Jets? It's a great question. It's a great question. I mean, they got,

Ryan Tannel was working. for his life. I mean, that was part of the issue is that he was getting destroyed the entire game by the Jets defensive line, but a worthwhile question. All right. So what's your big question? All right. Mine is who, we talk, go back to the injuries a little bit. Who can weather this part of the season? Like, what are the teams that can hang around and stay relevant even if they're dinged up? Like with Cleveland. We'll talk about them in a sec with Thursday in football. Can other teams that are banged up stick around? Can they hang around? Because I think that's going to be the big question here is the attrition comes every single year.

So that's what I want to see. Can a team like the Browns maintain that? The Titans are banged up, really banged up. Can they still beat the Chiefs or stick around with the Chiefs and kind of maintain the inside track in the AFC South? Those are my concerns because I just think that right now injuries and dealing with injuries is such a huge part of this week. And it's really been one of the only things that we've talked about this week.

So that's what I'm paying attention to is just who can maintain. their status and their trajectory toward the playoffs. That's my big question. Yeah, because you have to look at, okay, how are these rosters built and which teams are, where are the injuries happening? What positions? The Browns are in a really unique situation right now where their, you know, their injuries are kind of all over the place and include the quarterback, which some of

these other teams that we've talked about that are, you know, dealing with a lot. Their quarterbacks are healthy. You look at a team like Baltimore. They're the team to emulate here, right? A team that we kind of rode on, not necessarily rode off, but maybe discounted a little bit earlier in the season because you just thought, oh, my God, how many more injuries can they withstand? I mean, they lost their entire running back room. They lost Marcus Peters. You know, now they've lost Ronnie Stanley.

I mean, they've just been going through injury, injury after injury. But stability at quarterback, stability on the coaching staff, a coach who knows how to kind of manage all of that. this and here the Ravens are right now, arguably the best team in the AFC. I mean, I don't know who the best team in the AFC is, but you can make a very strong argument that it's the Ravens. They have 16 players on injured reserve right now. It's amazing. It's truly amazing.

So they're kind of the model of how to navigate this correctly. A lot of teams aren't going to be able to replicate what the Ravens have done and been able to survive, kind of survive all of these injury troubles. A couple of the teams that I'm also kind of curious, the Packers haven't been seriously injured losing Jair Alexander recently. That's a really big deal. But David Bactiari is starting to practice this week. So, you know, his timeline is starting to return. So that's a contender who's getting back a very important piece that they're going to.

And they get better in two positions when that happens because then Jenkins pops back to guard. Yeah. So now you have the P and that MVS, I think, is. could be back this week. So they're another team that they're fifth and offensive to the UA. Their office has been great still. And they haven't had their guys at full strength. So they're another team that's done a great job of weathering it.

And that's, to me, what I'm watching. How many other examples of that are we going to see this week and over the next couple weeks where it's, all right, we are a real possible contender. This could be our year. Can we withstand this? Like the bills are a team that's not hurt at all. They've been able to avoid that for the most part. And I think it's not fun to talk about.

It's not that interesting. but injuries are a huge part of what ends up defining who's successful in the NFL. And I just think it's something to keep an eye on right now. All right, Lindsay, before we get to Fairburn, we have to ask, or I have to ask you like we do every week for you to sell me on Thursday night football. It's been easy for you the last couple weeks. It is not as easy this week. Well, first of all, the first thing that we have to talk about when we're talking about

Thursday night football this week is that this injury report is ridiculous. You tweeted it earlier that you had to scroll. And that was when it was just the Browns. The Broncos injury report is pretty ridiculous also. Most notably, Teddy Bridgewater is questionable with a foot and quad injuries. So this is rough. This is a tough sell. I'm having to dig really deep into my, I'm just having to dig deep here to figure this out.

But, okay, first of all, this is a chance to find out about players that you've never heard of. And how often does that happen that you get to turn on your television and say, there is a person in the NFL named D. Ernest Johnson. And he is going to be the starting running back for the Cleveland Browns this week. Maybe you've picked him up on your fantasy football, waiver. I have him on my fantasy football team. I started him last week. That's how dire my running back situation is without Nick Chum.

That sounds like a you problem that's happening right here. But yeah, so the Browns, the Browns injury situation is really, really rough. But it's, you know, just think of what an opportunity this is for Joe Buck and Troy Eakman and Aaron Andrews to introduce us to some. new players that we've never heard of. All right. Second, we've got Case Keenham, who has played 10 years in the NFL. He is the perfect quarterback for the situation. And actually, on Wednesday, he talked to the media in Cleveland and he said, I am built

for this. So I think this is actually potentially watchable, right? Because Case Keenum, not a great track record as being a starting quarterback outside of that half season in Minnesota. But he's been a really serviceable backup quarterback. And this is actually as good of a situation, probably. as you could have hoped for if you're the Browns where you need to sit Baker Mayfield down for a little while. So I think Case Keenum will be competent in this situation.

It's also a Case Keenum revenge game. He formerly played for the Broncos who overpaid him to be their starting quarterback after his half season of tremendous success in Minnesota. And it didn't go great for a lot of reasons. I mean, there were a lot of reasons that Case Keenum didn't work out in Denver. But now he gets a chance starting quarterback again to play against his former team. All right, number three, Von Miller is pissed off at how he's played and how the Broncos have played lately. The sound bite of the week, it's been all over Cleveland. If you've been driving around Cleveland, I'm sure you've heard it on sports talk radio.

Von Miller said he didn't care who the tackles were, but he was going to kill him, which sounds to me like is probably a personal foul in some form of taunting. But it's fine. So Von Miller is really pissed off. He has not played well. I think he only is a half sack during the Broncos. recent stretch. I've seen him play live in two of those games and for the most part haven't noticed him on the field. And that's a really big problem for the Broncos. But the last time that Von Miller made one of these type of predictions was also before a Thursday night football game. It was against

Arizona Cardinals and he came out and he said, we're going to kick their ass. And they did. So maybe this is another chance for Von Miller to make good on his promise, although we hope there's no actual homicide on the field on Thursday night. That would be a reason to not watch the game. Um, we might see Drew Locke in this game. I just mentioned that Teddy Bridgewater is on the injury report. And while that's not necessarily something to get too excited about, it always is a roller coaster. And it will make things really, really interesting. And then the drinking game for this week is when Vic Fangio makes a coaching decision that makes you say what the F just happened.

Why did he do that? Finish your beer. All of that is a very good selling point. I will say, I will also say, this is a real game in the AFC. Like both of these teams are still in it. It like this does matter for playoff implications. Your reasons are more fun. I mean, the Drew Locke thing, it's October.

People are watching horror movies. It's the same thing. It's called Locktober. Excuse me. My husband. The University of Missouri grad likes to text us, Locktober. What a poor, poor man, Chris Paul is.

That's true. True story. All right. That's all we got. It's time to get to Fairburn. It's time to chat about the Patriots. All right. It's time now for this week's team visit.

I am very excited to welcome. Very fresh New England Patriots writer for the Athletic. Matt Fairburn. How are you, buddy? I'm doing well. How are you, Robert? I'm doing very well. You, how long have you been on the job now? Trick quick. I don't know. That's a tough, that's a hard one right off the bat. Six weeks, I think. Since week one, it was a few days before week one.

We're week seven. Yeah. So a few days before week one is when I took the job. I've been actually in Massachusetts full time for about a week and a half. Oh, man. Look at you. It's all very new, but we, I wanted to have you on because I, I've gotten a lot of Patriots questions in the mailbag recently about where they're at, about what's going on with the Patriots. And I figured this was a good time to kind of debrief about New England. They're two and four. And it feels like kind of a strange season where they're feeling out the Mack Jones stuff and the defense is still pretty good.

But I think there are questions about the Belichick era and some of the decisions he's made. So I feel like this was a good time to do this. The first question I wanted to ask you, though, obviously this is very new. You've covered the bills for years, so you've watched the Patriots a little bit. But what is kind of the thing that you've noticed the most as you've done it every day, whether it's the Belichick part of it or the way the organization operates, or now that you have some closeness and proximity to the Patriots world,

what has jumped out to you about it? You know, it's a little bizarre to jump in at this time of the Patriots, run here with I'd say so. Yeah, it's the expectations are probably what jump out number one,

whether it's inside or outside the building is just the standard and the expectations has nothing has changed in that regard despite how much has changed for the team.

You know, and they spent a lot of money in the off season. They still have the greatest football coach of all time. But they have a rookie quarterback. So two and four maybe shouldn't be a shocking record, given the schedule, given, you know, the fact that they have a rookie quarterback and he started

from the jump. But there is still a very high bar here, especially from the fan base. And they're not really okay with letting a season slide by just because they have a rookie quarterback. So that's been an interesting part. It's been, it's a lot of what people say it is, right? It's a tough nut to crack this beat and this organization. The challenge is part of what excited me about the job and part of what's interesting. And it's definitely, it's tough to get a read on Bill Belichick on a day-to-day basis with where he's at. But this is an interesting time for this franchise, an interesting time for Belichick as a coach. And it's been, you know, it's been fun to see it up close.

what's the rudest thing he said to you in response to a question that you've asked? I mean, I don't know if he's been particularly, it doesn't even feel like he's being rude because he's that way to everybody. So he's very short. He's very to the point. Sometimes he says a lot without saying a lot. I don't know. I'm starting to, I'm in the feeling out process of kind of figuring out what certain things mean, what certain tones mean. But sometimes he says something that's really.

short, really brief, and could be misconstrued as rude. And you think he actually really cut right to the truth of something. You know, so I don't know. And Fridays, he's really, for the most part, not every Friday, but on Fridays you catch him and you ask the right question. You might get an eight-minute answer on long snappers. So it's, you really just don't know what you're going to get. You got to bone up on your special teams in the cross.

Those are the two things you really got to drill down on here over the next couple months. And Navy. And Navy. I bet you never thought that there'd be so many similarities between Bill Belichick and parenting a newborn, which I know you were also doing where you're just trying to decipher, what does that sound mean? And what does he really want? And what do they feel about me right now? Because, yeah, Bill Belichick is a very complicated human being.

And it's been hard to really understand or get a great sense of how he feels about Mack Jones. So can you give us kind of a realistic evaluation on Mack Jones' rookie season? and maybe what you've learned about him through six games. You know, it's interesting. It's jumped out to me that Bill Belichick has been very complimentary of Mack Jones. And I didn't know necessarily what to expect in that regard because, like you said, it's hard to gauge how he feels about certain things. But we also haven't really seen him with a rookie quarterback in so long.

And so to know, to wonder, I was wondering how hard he would be on him because you ask him about a lot of players and it'll be a stock answer or, you know, very lukewarm. But he's been impressed by Mack Jones and says they can always count on him to do the right things. Personally, I've been, I'd say more impressed than I expected with Mack Jones. And the numbers haven't been there. You know, they haven't been crazy in terms of yardage and touchdowns. But he's completing passes at a very high rate.

He's starting to push the ball down field more. in the last few weeks. He doesn't make a ton of mistakes. I know he had the pick six against the Cowboys, which was a little bit of a miscommunication between Jones and Kendrick Bourne. He's not all the way there. I think that's probably the big question a lot of people have

is because so much of the mental part of the game seems to be coming somewhat easily to him, you know, where's the upside? How much can he grow? But I think there's more upside there that people give him credit for because of the way he anticipates. And as he gets a grasp of this offense,

I think I'd really just like to see them open it up more and throw the ball more. You know, it took them a long time to hit 10 pass attempts in that game. He didn't have an incompletion until the second half against the Cowboys, but they weren't throwing the ball a ton. And then at the end of the first half, they kneel the clock out with a minute 30 left. I just want to see them give Mack Jones an opportunity to try. and even if he fails, try and fail at the end of the half. Maybe he has a big mistake or he had the mistake at the end of the game,

but go forward on fourth down and overtime. Give him a chance in those big moments to show what he can do because it seems like he has what it takes to come through more often than not. And that's what jumps out to me most is that mentally and emotionally, he's very equipped to handle playing the position, not just in the NFL, but here in New England for Bill Belichick. has the overall kind of conservative nature, both of the structure of the offense and the fourth down decision making, has it surprised you at all? I mean, just because for most of his career, obviously they played with Tom Brady.

And when Brady was there, they were fairly aggressive on fort down situations, you know, a decade ago. They played at one of the fastest paces in the entire NFL. That stuff has shifted now, which I think is understandable to a degree when you have a quarterback in an offense that you don't trust as much. But for so long, this was an organization and a coaching staff that found every edge. Every single small advantage there was to be gained, they seemed to gain it. And now it feels like even when we take circumstances into account, they're sacrificing some of those things. And it runs counter to what we've come to understand from this franchise. And I'm just, it's hard to square those two things in my mind.

I'm not sure how open he's been about some of those decisions. or about the overall aggressiveness level that they've had on offense and on Fort Down, but it really is difficult for me to kind of parse. Doesn't it make you almost think that there's some advantage he's found that we don't know about yet, right? Exactly. Is he like Galaxy branding this shit in a way that is ultimately beneficial to them? But I feel like I'm giving him too much credit in that way. Right.

That's the weird reflex, I think, with Belichick that he has earned, by the way, is that anytime he does something, even something worth criticizing, you're thinking, what does he know that I don't know? Because the answer is a lot. You know, he knows a lot that I don't know.

But I wasn't surprised early in the season because it's like, okay, you have a rookie quarterback making his first few starts. And each decision in a vacuum can be explained away by circumstances like that. There's a rookie quarterback. The offensive line hasn't been good.

Whatever scenario you want to point to, But I think when you look at it in totality and think the only time they've gone for it on fourth down is when they were losing by 15 points in the fourth quarter to the Saints when they basically had to go for it three times. Every situation that pops up, not giving him a chance, not giving Mack Jones the chance to go for it, it's been a surprise to me because I'll put it this way. I think, like we said, Bill Belichick has earned, you know, the benefit of the doubt on a lot of things. And probably this included to an extent, you know, you have to, you know, there are variables at play. But this is a two and four team that to most outsiders, I would say, there were expectations, but expecting to win the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback is probably unrealistic. not to say they can't do it and climb out of this hole

because nobody ever wants to count these guys out. But why not lose by letting your rookie quarterback go for it on fourth down in overtime, right? The defense had the defense played 90 plays on Sunday. So fourth down near midfield, you've got a makeable fourth down. And yes, the offensive line has played poorly, but you have a makeable fourth down. instead you punt the ball back to a really good Cowboys offense that has kept your defense on the field seemingly all day. Your defense is gassed. That to me is just, I thought the same thing in the Buccaneers game.

You have a fourth down that's makeable and you try a 56-yard field goal with your kicker who is limited on the injury report in the driving rain. Why not lose, you know, look at what happened to the bills the other night. who's criticizing Sean McDermott for going for that fourth down and losing the game? Not many people, right? You go down swinging and you trust your players and you're able to lean on that as your answer. I just think letting Mack Jones try and fail in some of these situations really isn't the worst way to lose. And I think they've protected him from some of that and they've been conservative. I think the offensive line might be a bigger piece than Mack Jones.

You saw Randy Gregory destroy two Patriots offensive tackles to Sack Jones in under two and a half seconds. That's going to make you hesitant to go for it. But to not have done it really in any situation is a surprise to me. It's just it's uncharacteristic, like you said, although Aaron Chats of football outsiders pointed out, this is a pattern that predates, you know, Tom Brady leaving. It's been a trend for almost a decade now with Bill Belichick. So what do you think is the next evolution of this offense? What are you hoping to see, aside from them just being a little bit more aggressive and letting Mac Jones do a little bit more, what would you like to see, especially maybe with some of their new, you know, the new additions, the guys that they brought in and paid a lot of money for this off season?

Yeah, getting more out of that too tight on set would probably be number one because John Hsu Smith has, you know, disappeared the last few weeks. He hasn't been getting snaps in the passing game. I think he was at 30% of the snaps on their passing plays last week. You sign a guy like that along with Hunter Henry, and the expectation is they're going to be on the field at the same time. They're going to be making an impact on this passing game. He had a bad drop against the Saints. And since then, really hasn't had a huge role.

So finding a way to get him involved, Hunter Henry's been better in the last few weeks, but they're pushing the ball downfield more. I think just letting Mac Jones do a little bit more, I think would be the big thing for me. Let him throw the ball more and let him throw the ball in key situations because they were throwing the ball on early downs at a really high clip in that Cowboys game. And then Randy Gregory had that strip sack and Mac Jones fumbled, you know, the Cowboys turned the ball over. and after that it was very conservative, a lot of running on early downs, and kind of playing to keep the game close, it felt like.

And you saw what Mack Jones can do at the end of the game when he hit that touchdown to Kendrick Bourne. He's got some of that in him. He's got probably a little bit more upside than people give him credit for. Even though he's not jumping off the page with his 40-yard dash or his arm strength, he can make some of those plays and anticipate those big plays and those passing wins. knows. I think they're slowly opening it up. And I wonder at what point they really start to let it rip with them because you're two and four, you know, what do you have to lose?

The personnel on offense, we talk about Johnny Smith a little bit and just the tight end sets, but then you talk about the offensive line, that was supposed to be a strength of this team coming into the year. And through injury and just inefficiency, it has not been. In effectiveness, it hasn't been. And so I kind of think, taking a step back and looking at the long-term view for this offense, what do you do? think the plan should be? Like, what do they need a year from now? What is the support system that they should be putting around Mack Jones? Because the moves they made this offseason, and you correct me if you think this is wrong, but it seems like it was we need functional players at the skill position

groups. That's what Nelson Aguilar and Kendrick Boren and the tight ends are, because we didn't have that last year. We're willing to pay up for functionality at those spots and the offensive line will be a strength. Now it just feels like, well, that functionality really caps up. us out. We don't have playmakers on the outside and at some point you do need that. The offensive line isn't a strength as currently constructed. So it feels like I've kind of had to step back and be like, all right, what do the Patriots want to be on offense and what should they try to be here as we eventually move into Mack Jones's second year? Yeah, that's, that's, I think, a key question because a year like this is only worth it if there's a payoff

off on the other end, right? If you're building towards something. And when you've built an offense that for the most part, looked like it was built besides the quarterback needing to develop, now there are some questions about that. I think there are questions about just how functional Nelson Aguilar is as a wide. For $11 million a year. You know, Kendrick Horn, I think, has played pretty well.

The tight ends, you know, Johnny Smith certainly needs to pick it up, but Hunter Henry's a nice piece. I think if you're looking, you know, a year out, they probably, the biggest need on offense is going to need to be on the offensive line at this point. Isaiah Wynn has not played well. Crazy. They already picked up his 50-year option. They bumped Mike on Wayo out to tackle and he's played well.

I don't know if they're going to keep him there or not. They've had a lot of issues on the offensive line. They had a couple of COVID cases. Trent Brown got injured, like 10 plays. into the start of the season and hasn't been on the field. So they have injuries that have caused issues there, but even when they've been healthy, the tackles have been a problem.

Left tackle in particular, Isaiah Wynn just isn't playing well. And so I think that becomes a big question. If you're going to build around Mack Jones, is Isaiah Wynn, the left tackle that you need him to be, then you probably go and get one. And I think if you're building, towards something, it's a weird thing to be Mac Jones and to follow Tom Brady because everybody

just wants that again, right? You know, everybody around here says, this guy can be the next Tom. Well, I don't know if that's a realistic expectation, but you should at least be trying to build towards what the offense looked like when you had Tom Brady because that's the offense that you're running. You're not changing the scheme necessarily for Mac Jones. dramatically anyway. So if you're going to have a better passing game,

I think it starts with better play from your offensive tackles. You need to give him more time to stand back there and let those big plays develop. He gets rid of the ball really quickly. He makes decisions really quickly. Some of that has been out of necessity because he doesn't have time and he knows he doesn't have time. Josh McDaniel, some of what he's been calling,

I think, has shown less so a lack of faith in Mack Jones, then it is a lack of faith in the offense line in front of them. So unless that group starts playing dramatically better, I think that's an area specifically tackle where they're going to need to focus. And I know they got Trent Brown. So, you know, the fact that he's been injured hasn't helped. And it does, you know, the past catchers really haven't been a huge problem. But they are, I think, pretty clearly lacking that number one that you'd like to have.

if they can stumble upon one of those in the draft or in free agency, that would be helpful. But they already spent a ton of money. So there is a bit of an identity, I don't want to call it an identity crisis because they have a rookie quarterback. They have a lot of new pieces. They're trying to find that identity and what they want to be, what they're good at. And I do think there's some talent on this offense. It's just not all coming together all at once. They can put it together for a couple of drives.

I sent a text to a reporter friend of mine during the first half thinking, do the Patriots have an offense now? Because they were really firing early in that game. And then it just disappeared until that long touchdown. So that's to be expected with a rookie quarterback. But I guess that's the long answer to your question. The short answer is until they know what Mack Jones is best at and what suits him best, you know, that's what they need to lean into.

And I think that's part of what this season is about for them, figuring out what they have in Mack Jones and how to build an offense around him. I think when you look at the kind of the landscape of the AFC, there's this big jumble of teams in the middle. There's a lot of teams that are two and four, three and three. And you could probably make an argument that the Patriots are the best two and four team out there, just given the losses that they have, how they've lost them, etc. And given your expertise before you got to the Patriots beat covering the bills, I really want to get your take on kind of how you see the AFC shaking out. And maybe what's a realistic expectation for the Patriots? Could they get into that wildcard conversation? Is that even a realistic thing that we should be talking about?

You know, I think I have a hard time counting them out. I always had a hard time, like counting them out when I covered the bills. I always had a hard time, you know, even up until last year, the first time the bills and Patriots played one another. I was like, I'm picking the Patriots until I see the bills beat them. Like, you know, it was like, I know they don't have Tom Brady, but I'm picking the Patriots. I'm picking, I think I picked them to win the division last year because I was just like, I'm picking them until I see something different. And even at two and four, you know, my eyes tell me through six games that this is a pretty average football team. And I think, but I think what my eyes also tell me looking at the standings, watching other games, is that an average football team can make the playoffs in the AFC, especially with the extra team and especially with an extra game to buy themselves some time.

They are, you know, you could say this about a lot of teams, but they are really close to a beating the Cowboys and the Buccaneers. Like they took both of those teams to the wire. I don't think if they were a lousy team that would happen. So the problem I see for them is that the schedule has some winnable games on it, and then it has some of those, they're going to need to go on a run. They're going to need to rip off some wins against some decent teams. If it takes 10 wins to get into the playoffs, then they need to go down to Carolina and beat the Panthers.

They probably need to go to L.A. and beat the Chargers. You don't get points in the standings for playing a good team tough, which is what they've done this season. So there's some games early in the season that they're going to want back when we're talking about the playoffs at the end of the year. But I do think they're going to hang around longer maybe than people expect if some of these games start going their way and if the offense starts to come around. because to have hung around against the Cowboys and Buccaneers the way that they did with their rookie quarterback still figuring things out, things says that things can come together quickly for them if the right things happen. There's no guarantee that they will, but it's hard for me to envision things going completely off the rails for them. And maybe that's just like I said, my reflex to not believe that that can happen to this team,

this coach and I could be proven wrong but it just feels like even last year they hung around and they had a lot less talent than this team had so I think they'll be in the mix but I'm not necessarily blocking off my my calendar in January just yet it's a weird place for the Patriots to feel like everybody else and that is exactly what they feel like right now Matt Fairburn always great to chat with you buddy good luck with, I don't know, all the new aspects of your life. I'm sure you'll do great. We'll talk to you soon, buddy.

Thanks so much for having me. Good seeing you guys. All right, guys. That's all we got for this week. Thank you so much to Lindsay. Thank you so much to Matt Fairburn. Always great to chat with him. Appreciate you guys listening.

Please, if you could, for me, rate and review the podcast on Apple. I would really appreciate that. Please subscribe to The Athletic. The Athletic.com slash football show. You will not be disappointed. We'll be back tomorrow with Nate and Shield doing the Friday 5 and our week seven picks. Nate lost his Luke Warwick of the Week, and we have a very fond punishment for him that I am excited for you to all see on video, and he's going to absolutely hate it, and I'm really pumped about that. So please check back in for that tomorrow.

Until then, appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.