The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Dissecting the defenses of NFC contenders with Nate Tice + Sheil Kapadia’s Week 9 picks

Episode Date: November 5, 2021

Robert Mays and Nate Tice focus their attention this Friday on the defenses of NFC contenders. They break down what they’ve seen from the Cowboys before discussing the Packers’ defense vs. the Chiefs’ offense. They also dive into the Rams’ defense with Von Miller as well as Cooper Kupp and Robert Wood’s influence on the other side of the ball. Finally, Sheil Kapadia and Nate test out Dan Campbell’s coffee order and talk about their Week 9 picks.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. The Athletic Football Show is presented by State Farm. Because like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Friday, November 5th. Fun show for you guys today. As always, Chioka Pottia is going to be joining us a little bit later to do our weekly

picks segment. Both of those guys got their loop-warm lock of the week wrong. So they've had to imbib a lot of coffee today. As a result, how you feeling over there, Nate? I'm amped. Like now it's kicked in. Like honestly, seriously,

I feel like I'm just talking. Any little point you make, I'm like, oh, I got 40 things I want to answer right there. So I already, I already drink, I don't know,

at least like 30 ounces of coffee a day. I do a venty in the morning and then I do an afternoon coffee. So I feel like I'd be right in line with that. But you got to feel pretty good. Two vente coffees plus four shots of extra espresso. You got to feel pretty good. I'm, yeah,

I'm smelling colors. That's the only, way I can describe it. I keep saying that, but that's what it is. It's the end of the week. You need that kind of boost. I'm just getting amped up to watch Colts and Jets play tonight.

That's what I'm doing. The Mike White game, baby. So I can't wait until this comes out and we don't know what happened during that game. Yeah. So everyone's going to like, holy shit, they predicted it.

We, everyone's a little amped up today because of all the caffeine. We went a little bit long with Shield. We're going to do a Friday four today instead of a Friday five. I wanted to dig into, there's a theme to this one a little bit. I wanted to dig into the defenses on some of the NFC contenders. You know, we've talked about some of these teams at the top of the NFC being real Super Bowl hopefuls with title chances that I think are very realistic.

But we have not talked about the defenses of those teams at length outside of really the Cardinals. So that's what I wanted to do today. And I wanted to start with the Cowboys defense. They're playing the Broncos this week. It's not a great matchup. But we really haven't talked about the Dallas defense at all. all. And you went back and you watched them a little bit this week. So let's just start with the performance against the Vikings last week and what jumped out to you because this is a team right

now that's sixth in defensive DVOA after last week. Sixth of all the things of all the units and the performances across the NFL this year, this might be the most surprising. I wholeheartedly agree. We were saying before the season, it's like, well, the Cowboys could be feisty because we know they're going to have a good offense. We got to see if they're elite. but they're going to be good. And then the defense, you know, if they can just even get to average. 20th.

Even 20th. Like, they can be a good playoff team. You know, like a solid feisty playoff team. It's like, like, this is more than feisty.

This is like a defense actually like doing shit. So what it just jumped out to you? Like going back and rewatching them. What has, what have the hallmarks of their defense been to you so far? Yeah. The normal, what I expect with Dan Quinn,

the three and man coverage stuff. Like, okay, that is what I expected. But then just, I mean, up front how they're playing. Like they're like guys are like I knew demarcus lawrence was going to be a good player for them he's been banged up at basically the entire season all these other guys stepping up the randy gregories of the world uh the nabri loo butcher's name for the 40th time on the show osa odegazua yes uh but then other guys stepping up for him like uh jaron curse like in using these guys and it's not like they're running funky really crazy crazy coverages they're doing some stuff they are we're going to talk about one i know but like just how they're using their using their

guys and getting them in certain spots, putting Michael, Michael Parsons up on the edge, but then having him off ball and other looks, having Jayron curse being up on the ball against the Vikings and being basically a Sam linebacker. And then like, but the previous week, you know, when they played or a couple of weeks before when they played the Cowboys, he's in the Post. You know, it's, I'm sorry, the Cowboys, the Patriots, he's in the post. And it's just using these really fast athletic defenders in just ways where they can just go and run.

That's really kind of unlocked this defense a little bit. But it was a lot of the stuff I was expecting to see some single high stuff, but then just they really disguised their changeups really well. And that is something I want to like, I was shocked to see. Most of the times when you play a team that runs as a fastball in cover three, as soon as they like want to run cover two, you kind of know. Everybody's showing it. You're like, okay, it's covered two. All right, I know. Look at the corner.

He's like, that's a flat corner if I've ever seen one. They make it all look the same. And even if it's not like the best cover two you've ever seen, make it a quarterback, have that. that extra half second up. Is this two? Unlock stuff. And it's nice. And that's just the cover two stuff.

They also bring pressures off those looks too. It's just a really fast defense. I've just been shocked. I want to get into some of the situational stuff. Let's talk about the flexibility on the back end. Because when I watch them, that is the first thing that you notice. There are so many different players incorporated into what they're doing in the back set. On one play, maybe it's Keanu Needs.

and Mike Parsons as their stand-up off-ball linebackers. On another play, maybe it's Leighton Van der Esh and J-Res as their stand-up off-ball linebackers. Maybe another play, it's Keanu and Leighton-Vand-Rash. That's just the linebackers. And then, Curse can play safety. You have Donovan Wilson

and Malik Hooker back there playing safety. Sometimes it's so hard to predict who's going to be where. And you look at their roster coming into the season. He thought, man, they just have like 17 linebackers. That was the most notable thing about their defensive depth chart.

And they've used it to their advantage and they've used it well. So you have all of those different answers and all of those different bodies you can put on the back end. And the other part that lends to that is it allows you to be a little bit unpredictable when you are trying to disguise stuff. They have guys that can play man coverage. We know what Trayvon Dix has been for them so far this year. But then you watch that game against Minnesota and then you see some of the wrinkles

creep in. So when you talk about them getting to cover two in some of the disguises that they were using. What were some examples of that that you saw or just some things that you thought were notable? Yeah, it's always usually coming on passing downs, of course, but they would have like a safety down and, or they would have curse in the middle. And that's when you're saying, like using these guys in unique ways or not unique ways, but just be able to mix and match how they want to get to the guys. Okay, curse is in the middle. Okay, he's the Mike linebacker in this select. Against the Vikings, okay, one time that was covered three, the next time he was man. And then the

next time they brought it like a little pressure where they, they had curse, and drop two linemen into coverage. Yep. They rush three with it. And then on the next play, they're doing, okay, this looks like a cover zero look. They'll look at make it look like an all out pressure. And you're like, oh, here comes the third down all out. And they just run an invert out of it.

And they just incurses the Tampa, the Tampa player going right down the middle of the field. And it's like, as a quarterback, I'm telling you from the quarterback's perspective, that sucks because you're like, you might know, hey, I know they're about to get in the cover two. But who's my high player? Who's the flat player? Who's the hook player that I'm about to throw this? bender off of. You're just making quarterbacks just go, okay, and then go.

But also putting these mix match in these guys is like, Michael Parsons is a great example. He's a freak of nature. Don't get me wrong. His football IQ is still, still has a way to go. But they're putting him spots that he can play well. And that is good coaching to a T. Like that is what good coaching is. It's let your players play fast because they're good at what they do, hiding their weaknesses. Parsons' weakness right now is just knowing what the hell is going on.

He is truly just a blind dog Just chasing after her car sometimes But it is It's really fun to watch his team Like you said, the mix-mashing of parts Just really, really is just, it's hard. It's hard on offenses to it, especially a team that can play fast like this.

You have all those interchangeable parts And then you have guys playing like stars. Randy Gregory is playing that way. He looks amazing. And the thing about their front That's really cool to watch is just the stunts that they bring. It's just constant moving parts up front. and he's a really good looper.

Like his change of direction and explosion is obvious in those situations. They use Parsons in that way. So you have guys like Gregory playing that well. Trayvon Diggs playing like an all pro corner. I mean, what they can do with him in man coverage against people, he had an illegal contact penalty against Justin Jefferson on one point in that Minnesota game that I thought was kind of cheap, but he's just sticking with Justin Jefferson in man coverage all over the field.

He does also a couple of plays where he got beat last week, but some of the plays where he looks bad, I think her plays where his help doesn't come in the way he thinks it's going to. Like Thielen had a really big completion in that game. But he's playing man coverage. He thinks he has help inside. So he's playing with strong outside leverage. And then Thiwan beats him all the way across the field. Was that the little fourth down?

Yes. Yes. So he has run support. Yes. He got he got screwed over on that because he has run support. So he has to give eyes. So he gives eyes because it's a run fake. I mean, he's being a good defender.

And then it's like, that's what a good offense did. is like they were just like, nope, we just took advantage of that. So he's, I think he's playing extremely well. And then, so then you look at beyond the guys playing well, just some of the looks that they're giving you on third down and how unpredictable they're being, they are third and, excuse me, they're sixth in the NFL right now and EPA per play on third down when bringing five or six guys. When they have those mugged up looks and you don't know who's coming from where and all these

crazy stunts, it looks really, really good. And then you talk about the disguises and the defense and their ability, their ability, there was a play against Minnesota. It was third and five, the Gregory sack. And they were mugged up on that play with, I think it was Parsons and Curse were walked down into the Agap. So you never know who it's going to be based on any given play. It could be any two off ball guys.

Both can cover. Both can, yeah. They're a lineup in the A gap. I think Curse drops back into that Tampa 2 look in the middle of the field. Jordan Lewis, who's the nickel corner, dropped back to play safety in cover 2 as part of that play. You just don't know. So you have all these different things.

And this is a very long way of me kind of getting. to this final conclusion. What they're doing right now, right now on defense, reminds me what the chiefs have done over the last couple years, where it's a Rolodex defense, where in certain, especially in defined passing situations, you spin the wheel. They could play weird types of cover two.

They could play a little bit of man. They're coming with all these blitzes and pressures because they believe this is our best way to play defense. We need turnovers and big plays because our offense is great. It's the same kind of complimentary football. that we have given credit to the Chiefs for over the last few years. The thing about Dallas is, though, they have better players. Yeah.

They're defensive players. Their high-end guys are better, and not even that they're better. They play in different spots than the Chiefs best players do. So the fact that you have a true number one corner as part of this equation, and you have an edge like Gregory that's playing as well as he has, and your lineback, your second level defenders are so much. much better than the guys the chiefs have had. And you have this movable piece in Parsons.

It's a really good formula with better players than we typically see with this formula. And you're seeing incredible results. Yeah. And for the last few years, the chiefs have to run that pressure stuff because that's how they can get home. That's the only way they can get pressure. Even with the guys, even with Frank Hart and Chris Jones,

the Cowboys don't have to use pressure, but they can. And when you can do that, when it's like, we don't need a pressure you every time. We can just run four, rush four, and run coverage behind. it. We don't need to bring a blitzer every time.

That's so hard. And when paired with their offense, like the Chiefs, what their offense was it's knockout punches, right? I mean, that's how we know them. This year's a little different. But it's boom, just hitting them with big plays. Boom, boom. And then four play drive, 75 yards, they scored in two and a half minutes. The Cowboys offense is more like an anaconda.

Like, they suck the life out of you and run the ball on six-yard gains and eight-yard passes and six-yard gains. And then a 20-yard shot and then more four-yard gains. And it's like with this defense kind of doing the same thing. It's like you said, it's like this own style that works together. Because then if this defense creates one turnover, Cowboys can run two, six, seven minute drives. And before you know, it's 14 nothing, we've had the ball for two minutes.

It's like, what the hell are we supposed to do? It's like you said, though, it's like their version of it. And it's exactly the same thing. It's complimentary football where they can just mow guys down or mow a team down throughout the whole 60 minutes. DeMarcos Lawrence is coming back soon. I know. They have done this without the guy who came into this season as their best defensive player. That was the guy.

He was the most important cog. And they've been the sixth best defense in the league so far this year without him. And now he's coming back. This is why it's easy to get really, really excited about this team. Because we know what the offense can do. But the defense play, I don't think they'll be the sixth best defense in the league over the course of the year. The way they play is a little volatile. Even their best player this year has been volatile.

He's going to give up some plays. That's fine. That's fine. It's more than enough. And it's been so fun to watch Dan Quinn come into this and say, you know what? I'm just digging deep into the bag. I am going to change. I'm going to evolve.

I'm going to do some stuff I've never done before. Let's get weird. And them getting weird has benefited them. And it's just sometimes you can feel when it's your year, you know? You have these moments where you get a break here and there. And to me, when you can really sense it is when guys are just coming out of would work. The guy to me might have been the most impressive player on the field for the Cowboys

Defense on Sunday was a guy named Justin Hamilton. Yes. Number 99, who was a practice squad player for years, gets called up, I think, because Brent Urban went on IR. He comes up and plays on Sunday. He was everywhere. He got two holding penalties called in the span of like three plays. He's just wrecking shit.

That is when you know you're crushing people, is when you're calling dudes up from the practice squad and they look like pro bowl players. I did my first ever Twitch stream watching the game. It was this game yesterday. And it was hilarious because I was, I'm looking. I'm like, is that Boahana? Is that 98? Is that 98?

Is that 98? And then people on the stream were like, I think that's 99. He's not on the depth chart. I looked at the depth chart. He wasn't on there. And I was like, and I was like, and actually another sidebar with that is that with all the DBs and moving like that, it was hurting me watching this as a QC coach or QC coach oh my god but like this coffee man but like watching an offense going against a traditional

cover three team or a Seattle cover three team it's been funny I know they are reconfiguring what they do but it's been funny to see what these offenses are doing against them to kind of go like these are the match beaters so like the Patriots ran all go run a back seam yeah and then like and then the the Vikings were getting into slot formations so they do if it was man or cover three and it was hilarious I'm like I got flashbacks to four years ago and I was like when everybody was running cover three that all the offenses were doing. I was like, I was like,

what the hell just happened? Like, then we just get out of this? And it's like, oh, no, we're just going right back to that. But when you get guys stepping up and you, that's the thing,

I was looking at that roster, I had no idea who these DB, what numbers they were because they're getting the slot formations. I'm like, oh, this is an easy man's own tell. Who the hell's 20 something? Like,

I don't know who that got. Is that a safe? Because KZ, I think is 18. Hooker is 28. Donovan Wilson is six. So it is, it's a real pain in the ass.

I mean, That is, that's a real thing. It is confusion for confusion's sake is not always the best approach. But when you're a quarterback, you're like, who the hell is that in that spot? That little second of hesitation, that's happening, I think, against teams right now. Absolutely. Because of how many moving parts they have. So, again, not the film in slow time.

Imagine it's live. When you have five seconds to make a decision. Not the best matchup this week, but again, just a unit we had not talked a lot about. And after the game they had against Minnesota, I thought it was worth digging. into. All right, let's stick with the defenses on some NFC contenders here. This is an important matchup. Obviously, an eventful week in Green Bay. Now their defense goes against the Chiefs, and now their defense becomes even more important. Because with Rogers out, you assume they're going to have to win uglier. They did not play well against the card. Excuse me, their offense didn't

play well against Cardinals last week, but the defense did play well. So I wanted to dig into just what this Packers defense looks like, the contributions they're getting from guys, some of the tweaks that we've seen watching this defense against Arizona and then just digging into it a little bit more. It really does feel like a Xerox copy of what the Rams did, which I expected them to look like that coming into the year. I did too. Of all these teams were saying, oh, we're going to run the Fangio defense. It was hilarious. It's just like this, this is exactly what I was expecting. I thought there'd be a couple more tweaks, maybe a couple more adjustments, but no. I mean, honestly, I had figured out kind of what, even how they rotate the things too, which is not like anything

revolutionary, but it was kind of, that's how it's not predictable, but it is a little bit, but it's very much like you kind of know what you're getting. If I'm in a trips formation, they're going to have Amos away from the trips. They have the two safeties. Really, it's just everything starts with their two safeties in this defense. And rightfully so, they're two very good players is Amos is always going to be away from the passing straight side. And Savage is always going to be towards the passing straight side because they rotate Amos

into the box or down to get all those overs and everything coming to him. and they put Wants Savage in the post. He's also been a really good run defender this year. So it makes sense if they want him to be the one coming down. Exactly. And that's what you. And he reads the game a little better than Savage. Savage has athleticism that lets him overcome some of his misreads.

But that that's another day. But it's, it's this defense, though, it's like, it's really cool because Amos is such a good player. Say it's a trips. It's a three by one formation. Amos will come down. He's man on the on the runoffback essentially. He rotates down. They're able to push all their linebackers to do.

trip side. It's what we talk about, what we're talking about everything we did with the Rams last year. It was like, lock in Ramsey. We got the back with the safety. And it was just overload your guys. If you want to overload those side with receivers, we're going to overload it with coverage. And it's like, it's really fun. They have good players. They're good up front right now. They're getting some guys that are stepping up. Dean Lowry is playing great. Rashon. He really is ascended. I mean, he's got. Rashon Gary is getting like four QB hits a day. Every game. It's just like, I mean, he's song. I mean, it's getting the face mask. I'm a Kyle or Murray when he's like, he's like just reaching what it would be normal guy's stomach

and it's getting Murray's face mask. But the one adjustment that they have made that I've liked or maybe his little flavor is the third and extra long coverages when they get the dime. And so they'll get and they have Amos kind of being in the middle player. Like he's the dime player. But they won't just run one coverage out of it. They'll run to Tampa where he's the Tampa player, just like we talk about with Curse. They'll run three, cover three.

He ends up become almost like a whole player. with how they do it. They ran this one third and extra long coverage against the Cardinals. I thought was really cool. And it was like there was like third and 15.

They were all at the sticks with Amos and Campbell as both like whole robber players. But it almost looked like a cover zero flat look, almost like a red zone look. And they did it when the Cardinals were backed up. And I was like, okay,

they got a little bit of sprinkling on third down, which is what you want to see when you're going to be so consistent with your looks on other downs. It's funny that, you know, we talk about them as like a version of the Rams because it's almost that.

idea and that philosophy taken to the furthest extreme. So if you look at it, so far this year, only the Rams have faced more plays with light boxes this year than the powers, right? So that is their approach. Only the Bills and Panthers have created more EPA on plays with light boxes than Green Bay. So they've been third in the league in plays with light boxes against the pass. They're dead last in EPA defensively against the run with light boxes. So it's taking this idea of let's overload sides, let's use all of our resources on the back end, and it's, let's give up a little bit in the run game. It is taking that as far as you can take it. That's what this version of it is right now. Let's dig into the personnel a little bit, because

obviously they've been missing two of the biggest name guys on this defense all season. Zedare is pretty much. Zedaria Smith, Jayae Alexander, both of those guys are on the shelf right now, and other people have stepped up for that. You mentioned Dean Lowry. Dean Lowry's been on this team forever, and he's having a really nice year. I mean, a couple different plays against Arizona where he's just walking the right guard back into Kyle or Murray. He had a sack on one of them, but it happened multiple times in that game. So they're getting past rush juice from Dean Lowry, and that goes along with what they're getting from Ashon, Gary, and Kenny Clark. And when you watch this group right now, there's not a lot of bend or twitchiness with this group.

There is a lot of power. When you have Lowry, Clark, Preston Smith, and Gary on the field at the same time, you're looking at big, big dudes. I think every single one of those guys was at least 270, at least probably 275, they can collapse the pocket. And that's before Zatarias Smith comes back. Yes. I hope he does come back. The timeline with him is murky, but that is just a powerful group. And that is a pocket collapsing group.

And you've seen that even without Z in there. that's why they were able to get to Kyler Moore. Obviously, the Cardinals had some O-Line woes and the injuries and stuff like that. But you could really feel the difference of how they collapsed the pocket opposed to other teams. Like when the Cardinals play the Rams, like one Rams guy would win, usually Aaron Donald. But one guy would win. It's going to be Vaughn Miller soon. But one guy would win and then also cowers scrambled right up the middle.

Yep. They took away that because they just, like you said, push the pocket. It's the Patriots philosophy. I mean, but with more athletic players, really. Yeah, with more like actually guys that like are highly drafted guys as opposed to some guy off the scrap heap that Belichick likes. But it's like that's the thing. It's the same philosophy. And that's why it's with all these athletic quarterbacks, it's almost like the way to go about it.

You almost don't want the bendy guys that are going to give up a gap and give up contain. You almost want the pocket pushers that are going to just make it feel tight on those guys. And they can't get the escape lanes up the middle. So it makes sense. And even guys like Devandre Campbell. Well, I was going to mention him because the one sack he had, the sack he had, he was sitting there. He was spying Kyler and then he cleans up the sack. And I think that, so Devondra Campbell's been around forever, right?

Devondra Campbell, he was on that, the 2016 Falcons, he was a rookie. He came in with Dion Jones. Somebody, when you look at Devondre Campbell, Devondry Campbell looks like the greatest linebacker you've ever seen in your entire life. He's 6'3, he's got the longest arms imaginable. And when he was drafted, he was drafted. he was drafted to be KJ Wright. Dan Quinn was the head coach of the Falcons.

They drafted Devondre Campbell to be that Sam linebacker in that Seattle scheme because he's got the crazy length that KJ Wright does. He had some really nice moments as a rookie for that Falcons defense that really came out when they went to the Super Bowl, but overall just never really hit his seal. And you watch him play now, and he's still got that crazy frame and great athleticism.

He's one of those guys. You hear this sometimes from coaches. you want to play fast but not in hurry. And when you watch him this year, that's how he's playing. That sack he had on the Murray play, he's just sitting there waiting for the trash to clear out. He's sitting there and seen it. There was another play.

It was the first and 10 in the second quarter against Arizona. Cardinals had trips to the right. They faked a toss to James Connor that way, and they ran a reverse to Rondo Moore coming back. When you watch that play happen, it's fascinating. Devondra Campbell is sitting right over the center. He's the only linebacker in the box because that's how the Packers play. He doesn't move.

Doesn't even take a single step with that action to the right. He sees the left guard coming at him. He's like, there's something going on here. Does not move a step. And it is able to make the play all the way on the other side with the reverse at the sideline for a one-yard loss. And when you watch that, you see he didn't even react to that movement. That to me looks like a guy whose talent and frame and just overall skill set is starting to catch up with the way that he's seeing in the game. And he's been playing like an all-pro.

in the middle of that defense, which is, again, when you want to be great, when you want to win Super Bowls, that's what you need. You need a guy like Devondre Campbell who's bounced around the league and has not been a star anywhere else. You sign him for a couple million bucks and he's playing like a first team all pro in the middle of your defense. You're hoping for average. Yes.

It's like, okay. Yeah, we'll take that. That's like you say, that is when you get the improvement is when the role players play more than role players, when the good players play more than good players. And even with the injury is like to say, you know, to course, to Alexander and stuff, it's like, and Eric Stokes is kind of like, he's taking some licks. But it's like, hey, he's not going to play DeAndre Hopkins every week. That's the thing. These are good reps.

It's like Eric Stokes. It's not like where I watch them. Like this guy's done. Speed cures a lot of woes, baby. Yeah, doesn't it? I think their whole, how they scout D.Bs makes a lot of sense. It's like they're going for long athletes. They're going to, I understand what they're going for.

But it's like, I see Stokes. I see those flashes that you want to see out of. of a corner corner is up there as the hardest position to play as a rookie these are these are good reps like he's going to improve as a season goes along and once they get into the playoff race you know december hits and the playoff gets up in january those matter because now he's not going he's not getting thrown into fire in December because he's only like 30 snaps the whole year and he's like holy shit i'm in the playoffs and i have to guard robert woods and cooper cup like you know now it's actually it's that he knows how to handle this stuff he's taking his licks that's that's what

part and beat of corner is is having a short memory you have to like you actually learn from the negatives. So that's just like another thing I want to say. Kevin King, not so much. But Eric Stokes is like maybe that's maybe, you know, can have an ascension, especially in the second half. What's going to be interesting this week is that the way that they're built, right, is too high philosophy.

We're going to use our resources against the past. It's how teams to play the chiefs already all year. Yeah. They're already set up to do it. Daring them to run. So it's really, it's a funny matchup because they don't have to do anything differently. They can be exactly what they want to be defensively against Kansas City because it's the way to play the Chiefs right now.

And this to me, for the Chief's side of this, is a perfect test of, do you really want to run the ball? Are you really willing to do it? Can you sit there and say, we're going to run it 30 times because we think that is the best way to beat you? If you can't do it this week, and the Giants were another good example, Giants play with a lot of light boxes this year. It is in line with what they've done.

But the Packers have been the worst team in the league at defending the run. in these situations. So it is a staring contest. Who is going to blink first here? Are the chiefs going to say we're bored we don't want to keep doing this? Or the Packers are going to say, we can't play with these boxes anymore

because you're gashing us. So it's a fascinating matchup, and it's not a good one for Kansas City. No, it's like you said, it's the team that's the extreme of what's been causing some struggles this year. And honestly, that's what it is. It's like, you have to swallow your pride

sometimes to go like, you ever hand the ball off 32 times this game. Like just that's what the type of game is. But guess what? That's what champions do, though. You have to win in every type of way in the NFL. You just can't just toss the ball 50 times and blow teams out of the water every week. I know it's sad because I miss that.

I miss that version of the Chiefs offense. But that's what happens. We haven't seen the Chiefs, by the way. I know we're not talking about the Chiefs today. When's the last time the Chiefs have run a leak? The Chiefs used to run that weekly. And now it's like they just don't do that shit anymore. They just run.

I know. But we'll talk about them in a couple weeks or something. But it's like, yeah. Think about where we've got to with the Chiefs. You want them to. pull out the cheap tricks that other teams use to get big plays because they can't find them anywhere else. It's amazing how far they've fallen. All right. Stop being so cool. Stop trying to do the cool shit. Let's let's get those gimmies back. Last contender for an NFC defense we want

to chat about here. You mentioned a name earlier. The Rams, getting Von Miller, playing against the Titans this week, a lot of stuff to dig into here. I am curious what you've seen from this Rams defense this year that is different than the defense they were last year just in terms of approach, personnel, because I think there are a ton of similarities. Talk about all the light boxes that we've seen from them, which we expect to coming into the year. We thought they would try to do pretty much the same things, maybe with a couple little tweaks

here and there. So where would you say the departures have been in your mind? More pressures. I would say that's the number one thing. The easiest thing you could see is that they are willing to bring five and not just bringing the pressures where it's like, hey, we drop the end and we bring one inside linebacker where it's still you're rushing for true, true blitzes. And it's funny with Rahim Morris is that he's kind of been exposed to so many different

defenses. Like he was a Tampa 2 guy. And then he gets into and then he comes to the Falcons. He went to the offensive side. But then he became a cover three guy originally before he switched to receiver side. And then now he gets into this kind of this hybrid staley world that he's trying to learn from the other ramps defense and the coaches. And when they were in Atlanta though, by the end, they were bringing tons of pressure

and playing a lot of man. And that was outside of his normal. character. So I agree. He's seen a ton of different stuff. I know. And it's just it's I'm like trying because I don't know what Rahim's stuff is. Like and but which could be a good thing, right? Yes. And I mean that as a compliment. It's you can see where they've kept the staley stuff. Some of the fronts. They still run the two high coverages and rotate the safety week. Uh, uh, depending on the passing strength and all that. But then it's like seeing just the other sprinkling of stuff. The truth cover three stuff. the five-man pressure I said.

Like they'll bring slot pressure all the time. And actually the little tell about it, it's never Jalen Ramsey. It's always a different nickel. Like they'll have, hey, that's a tell. That's a tell. It's never Jalen Ramsey on these slot pressures.

It's somebody else because they want Jalen Ramsey in coverage in case the ball gets off. But this is such a classic Tampa 2, Ron Marinelli, Monty Kiffin pressure that you have seen for years and years and years that they would just run cover two, cover two, cover two, and they would just bring this one lone nickel slot pressure and they get home all the time.

And you know it's coming and they still get you. Rahim's running that now. So it's like, okay, there's that little influence there. Then you see the three week stuff. And it's like, okay, there's the Dan Quinn, the little influence there. And it's like, but then he's like, you see the two high shells. Like, okay, there's the staley stuff right there. And then it's like, and then he's like, okay, I'm bringing my blitzes, you know, on top of it.

So it's a fun tweak. But then we haven't talked about how awesome this front's going to look like. I mean, I don't think we realize having Aaron Donald as a penetrator on a game with Von Miller looping around, how devastating this. is going to be like i i don't think we're grasping what we're about to watch with this defense of fraud so so let's talk about the pressure for 30 more seconds here good only washington and the bucks have brought more five-man pressures this year than the ramps there it is which when you think about they were i think they were 10th last year so they would bring some five-man

stuff but they have brought those at a higher rate this year than anyone else they're not doing crazy blitzes they're not a pressure team but they bring five to create one-on-ones in the same way we've seen Wade Phillips teams do in the past. It's just a philosophical thing like we think that if we get one-on-ones, we're going to win. And they still use some stunts with that where they're using Donald to kind of change things. But they've, so on those plays, by the way. So they've brought five guys on 98 dropbacks this year, according to Trudity. Okay.

They've created pressure on 45 of those 98 dropbacks. So just half. Half. 16 sacks on those 90s. dropbacks 16 sacks two interceptions five forced fumbles okay no defense in the nflb on five man pressures has had more than 10 sacks other than the ramps who have 16 so one out of three times that they bring five men they do shit something some positive play for the defense true positive not even an incompletion like they've added twice as much sack EPA on those plays than

any other team in the NFL. It's insane. Now. Yeah, now they get Von Miller. Von Miller is added to the equation. So when you watch this, and I'd be curious about the numbers on this, it does feel like they have not played as many of those tight fronts this year

with only one edge rusher on the field. I think they played more just kind of traditional two edge sets. And now why that's important, is you can put Leonard Floyd and Von Miller in the game at the same time and not change what you're doing defensively. So that's what's going to happen. So they're going to have Sebastian Joseph Day, who is criminally underrated and is very, very good, von Miller, Leonard Floyd, and Aaron Donald in the game at the same time.

Yeah. And I think they'll do some stuff. I think it's, it's, I'm telling you, this is, it's going to be, I just watched that Texans game and it was like, this is without Von Miller. I mean, like, the passing game stuff is going to be. be ridiculous. Like those two on their own, Aaron Donald,

like Aaron Donald's made Dante Fowler look decent. Like that's what Aaron Donald has done. Leonard Floyd is a good player. I'm not saying he's star, but he's a good player. Now they get a legit star. And everyone keeps thinking, oh,

Von Miller, oh, he's 32. He's been hurt and everything. If you watch Von Miller at all this year, it's still Von fucking Miller. Like, he's still Von Miller. Like,

now he's going from a team where he's the only pass rusher to a team with Aaron Donald. Yeah. And they go on the same side. And we're in games and twists and then no one can slide to him. That's the other thing too is if you have two edge stars, okay, we can chip out both sides outside, right? Aaron Donald's already an advantage right there because he line up inside.

Now you got Aaron Donald on one side, Linderfler on the other side too. And then Vaughn Miller on one other side too. It's like, who do you help? Who slides? You can't slide anywhere. You can't do any adjustments because they can just fuck you up. The other thing that I'm really interested in is just the trickle down effect of this, right? So what would you do now if you were an offensive line or an offense?

It's all right, we need more guys in. Against this defense, what have teams tried to do? Five guys out in routes, overload a side, four receivers to one side. If you start putting guys in to help or chip or do whatever, now that takes away your ability to do that. So it just has all of these different compounding effects. And I'm sure the Rams know this. But it just makes you so much more dangerous in a bunch of different ways. So now, kind of shifting the focus to this week, I'm fascinated by this matchup in particular

because you have the lightest box team in the NFL. The Titans this year have only run the ball into light boxes 32 times despite running the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are 29th. Third down draws too. Yes. They are 29th in rushes into light boxes despite being the run heaviest team in the NFL. So what happens?

Do they continue to? to try to run the ball. Todd Downing came out today and said, we are not going to change who we are philosophically because Derek Henry is out. So do they continue to line up and try to run the ball against a team that just plays with light boxes all the time?

That matchup of styles here, I'm very interested to see what it ends up looking like. And that's what's actually scary too. I know that like we always say, styles make fights. And the thing about Von Miller too is that, especially when I was with the Raiders and stuff, you couldn't run at him.

because he would mess up your tight end or your backup right tackle. He was always on the right side. So he would just mess that up. So you just had to adjust your game plan to run away from them. And then on top of it, you have to be a good defensive player and a good offense player, I guess, but it makes the whole staff and the whole game plan extra work. You have to be very cognizant of where those guys are

so we don't get messed up with a matchups. That's what good teams do anyways. So now, Vaughn Miller against the run is no joke. And then say with this Titans team that runs so many nakeds, now you can't naked away or towards Von, I'm going to say Von Miller is on the right. I can't fake left and then boot to the right. Otherwise, you're going to see that Chandler Jones hit that we saw in Ryan

Daniel in week one. That's what Von Miller does. That's what good edges do. You can't do certain things to certain directions. And this Rams team, it's not predictable. When Von Miller is with, I say a full name. I say Von Miller. Yeah, that's always what he's been.

Yeah, yeah. Von Miller. When he was with Denver, you could guess exactly where he was on every single play. If we're in sub, he's going to be on the right. If he's in base, he's going to be over here. if he sits out for two drives or a series at a time where he gets a blow. Like we know that type of stuff. This Rams team moves their guys around.

They move where Aaron Donald is. They move where Leonard Floyd is. Just little tweaks on where those guys are aligned. Just that unpredictableness. It's going to be devastating. It really is because it just makes it so hard to not even execute, but even gameplay. All right. Last thing we want to dig into here.

We're going to stick with the Rams for a second because we haven't talked about their offense in that long. and we want to talk about Cooper Cup and Robert Woods specifically. So looking at the numbers, we need to talk about how ridiculous Cooper Cup has been. He leads the league with 924 receiving yards. He's second in the NFL in yards per route run. Only Debo Samuel is ahead of him. He currently has 63 catches, which is the second highest total in the entire league.

And the way that he's fit into their offense and the way that their passing game looks right now, I just think is you can't talk about it enough. Like what their offense looks like in this moment is absolutely crazy. So when you went back and you watched us the ways they were using Cup, what jumped out to you? I mean, if we're talking about the most, the receiver who's the most valuable, like truly on a play-by-play basis,

like actually has a positive impact on what their offense does, there's no receiver in the league that's more positive impact than Cooper Cup. And I'm not just saying with the receiving aspect, but also the blocking aspect. Yeah. though how he gets his how he wins it's not just him winning we had this adage because he's a white guy and i'll just be frank about it we think he's some five 10 little slot guy he's a six two dominant receiver and he wins against zone he can break off anybody in man coverage i've seen him go

against small nickel types i've seen him go against big safety types i see him go against a lockdown outside corner types he can win he went on the outside he went from the slot one-on-one like and if you can do that you're winning one-on-one, you're winning against zone and finding soft spots. That's already super valuable. Okay, Don, right there. But then that's the other stuff that he does. He can legit be on the field for every down and be useful. Because how they use him and Robert Woods, it's their tight ends. Like it's 11 and a half personnel. That's what I started to call it. It's not 11. It's not 12. It's 11 and a half personnel. That's what Robert Woods and Cooper Cup do because they, that's how they're able to run out 11 personnel. Like, that's how

there you have to block as a receiver if you want a base out of 11 personality if you watch college those guys have to block to run that stuff and so they're not receivers they're not tight ends they're tight receivers I guess is the best way to put it like but all that versatility all that stuff they do I'll say the like from down to down basis it's they have a feel for a zone they win versus man on third down hands the feel in the red zone they're actually like that is special how him and Robert Woods are able to actually like find the spaces and understand the body control. And it's just, it's phenomenal watching this guy. And I'm talking about Robert Woods as well.

But Cooper Cup is like one of the most fun players in the league to watch because he can just do everything. The only detriment he doesn't have is a long speed. But it's, guess what? He still takes the top off sometimes because of how he runs the route and the design and the feel he has. They are playing in a level right now on like a passing game that I've seen in a really long time. Yeah.

They lead the league by far in EPA per play, throwing the ball. I don't want to be hyperbolic about it, but I can't remember a passing event's making it look this easy. And it's everything because, like you said, they just decided they didn't need Deshaun Jackson because of their ability to press the ball down the field. And this is a perfect example to me. I know we're talking about Woods and Cup, but the Van Jefferson touchdown that he scored last week against Houston. Yeah. It's just a post, right? It's just a post.

When Matthew Stafford lets that ball go, the post safety is still like five yards deeper than Van Jefferson is. But that's the way that Matthew Stafford is playing right now. There are two things associated with this offense right now in the passing game that jump out to me more than anything else. One is spacing. When you watch them play, every team in the NFL wants to run routes where they're having somebody locked down or tie down a linebacker or an interior defender

and having something come behind it. The Rams are so, so good at high-loing those interior middle-of-the-field defenders because there's actual space between those guys. So many times other offenses are doing that shit and it looks ugly and muddled. It looks perfect with the Rams because of how the spacing is between those guys. And the other is anticipation. Where Stafford is letting some of these balls go is absolutely bonkers. It's uncoverable the way that he's playing right now. This to me is the stat that says it better than anything else could.

All right. On non-play action passes this season, Matthew Stafford has the second highest air yards per attempt in the NFL. It's 9.26. He has the sixth fastest average time to throw in the league. The five guys ahead of him have five of the sixth shortest air yards per targets in the NFL. It's ridiculous. What he's doing shouldn't be possible.

And the way that he's able to play like this is because of the anticipation they're playing with. When you want the Cooper Cup touchdown is a perfect example from the Texans game. They're tying down, it's cover three. They're tying down the linebacker to that side. Cup is running a post behind it. That ball is gone instantly. They know exactly what they're trying to accomplish on every single pass play by the way they line up. The idea that they're able to just do this stuff and dictate the game this way and have a

again, a clear answer every single time is absolutely ridiculous. And the other side of it is the thing that really is just striking to me while watching their passing game right now, they're doing this in a way that feels casual. Yeah. Their ability to run all of these downfield concepts, like they hit cup against the lions. It's like a normal like burner concept that you'd see where you have the outside guy

on the left side running off and then you have the deep crosser behind it. that's a play action concept. They're doing it under, they're doing it drop back. They're doing all these deep passing concepts as drop back plays. They're not even trying to dress it up with anything. They're like,

we're just going to do this because we can't. Outside of the Chiefs, I can't remember watching just a dropback passing game in recent years that looks like a cat like playing with its food the way that this team does right now. And the Chief stuff was always, well, one, it was like, oh my God, look at my homes. And like some of the stuff almost, and this is Andy Reid, this is how he's always been, but it almost seemed like tricky.

Like, you know, they're like it was, yeah, we have my homes and we have all the speed, but we kind of we're going to, you know, get a little cute on you. This team, like you're saying, they just line up and empty. And I'm telling you when they just get all the variations of empty they get, they're running seven step drop back stuff out of empty because they do the chip help stuff. But everything is in the flow of the progression because of how Robert Woods and Cup and Van Jefferson and Higbee, I guess now, they understand what they're trying to accomplish. just like you said, because they're patient on their routes. Like Woods will be on the backside dig on something. He understands he has a second because he's going to be three on the progression. He doesn't rush and run the route short.

It gets all crowded. They under cup, how many times you see like a stack with cup? He takes the hesitation before. Yes. Yes. Because he understands that he has that extra second. That's so many receivers. So many receivers.

I would say 95% of receivers, all levels. Runners understand their route. They understand. And hey, this play is trolley. I have a go. I'm the X. I have a go. That's all they know.

And they don't understand what trolley is, the whole concept. They don't understand what they understand. Okay, on stick. If I'm the slot stick, I have a stick route. They don't understand that, oh, the concept is this, this, this and this. This is why I have to do this on this route. Cup and Woods, it's always apparent that they have, they have a true understanding what's going on. It's so much fun to watch both of them.

The other thing, too, it was the four minute drill against the, the Lions is like four minutes when you're burning out the clock. Just anyone doesn't know there's two minute drill, which is like, hurry, hurry, hurry, then there's four minute drill when you're trying to milk the clock and end the game. And it was the perfect encapsulation of how valuable these two are. There was a third down. Woods wins one-on-one on a slant. They get a nice gain.

I think they got an explosive out of it, 18, 20-yard gain. Next play, they're under center. They run. They run duo, which I'm always going to be hyped up about. Bring down Woods. He's basically like a lead fullback on these plays. Boom. Fitting up on a safety.

drives him out of play on the same play there's cup folding in he's kicking out the corner and it's like what the hell these guys are like guards and you know like a tackle and tight end like you know like kicking out and stuff like that next play they run duo again there's what's fitting up on it again next play they're on duo again there's what's fitting up on it again and this is after he just one on one-on-one on a slant usually when you have a blocking receiver it's like like lezard and packers you bring that fourth receiver in just to block duo when your star receivers there are a thousand-yard receivers or ballpark of that are doing that. That's the awesome.

It's Godwin and him. That's Godwin. That's why I got hyped up about Marry Cooper the other day. Amari Cooper is like, okay, I got to do this. That's why I like CD-Land. That's why I like Justin Jefferson coming out. The guys that can one play win a one-on-one and the next play just bury somebody and actually understand what they're trying to do, that's so valuable.

Then the eight targets they get. If you're affecting the play 30 times as opposed to eight times as a normal receiver would, it helps. And they have two guys that do it. What do we talk about all the time? can you win in different ways? And that's what this Rams offense is doing. And when I say that I can't remember an offense that looks like this in the passing game.

When you think about season-defining offenses, again, outside of the chiefs to a certain extent, think about the teams over the last five, six years, right? The 2016 Falcons, the 2019 Ravens, it's trickery, right? It's an offense that jumps, and even like the 2017 ramps. It's an offense that jumps on you. It's like, oh, the play action is tied into the run game. They're doing a little something different. Yeah, it's just, it jumps on you.

This team is like, fuck it. We're lining up on five wide. We're just going to sling it all over the place. I can't remember a team that has made an approach like this look this casual. And the coolest part about it is if you looked at their personnel in the passing game, now that Deshawn Jackson is removed especially, what is the thing you would say they lack? speed. They do not have real speed, but the way that they've been over to overcome it is fascinating. By stretching the field horizontally, they're able to overcome the lack of vertical speed that

they have because of all the space that the defense has to cover. So when you look at their team previously over the last few years, they've played all these condensed formations because they've needed to have that element of trickery in order to create big plays in the passing game. And over the last couple years, they still couldn't. Now, they don't need to do that. So they're all spread out and it's made their lack of speed not as important because of how you're stressing the defense. It's incredible to watch. I mean, it's the way that all the pieces fit together and all of the details is mind-blowing. It's everything's in the flow. Like, I recognize every passing concept. I'm not like, ooh, that's some cool little third down that they just drew up there there.

It's like they're running sale. They're running. But he's letting it go as soon as soon as he hits the back If his drop, it's gone. If I was teaching a quarterback, I'd back, this is the timing. Like, obviously, I can't teach Stafford, like his arm or what he does. But I'm saying at least his footwork in his eyes and timing, it's exactly what you want to see. Everything's in the flow of the offense. Nothing is designery where they're like, oh, man, we got to get cup open on this. And that's why it was so hard watching golf for the last couple of years.

It's like every third down, it was like, if that number one's not open because they just dialed up this like really special stack play for for cup to get open. It's like, no. Now it's like, no, it's just run to sail and let's hit the backside dig to, woods because Stafford's going to get there and he's going to get there on time. Rather than hitting one 60-yard gain and hopefully we get the post, they're like, let's just take four 20-yard gains. It would just hit you over the intermediate. It's just, it's such a fun offense.

To put a bow on this, and if you're trying to just distill why Cooper Cup is having the year that he's having within this offense, this is the type of offense with Stafford with the structure. If you have a receiver that is perfectly detailed on every single play, he can be the best receiver in the NFL. And I honestly think that Cooper Cup might be the most detailed receiver in the entire league. And I think that is why, if I had to articulate it, why he has been as truly dominant as he has been right now. Because with the way this offense is built, if you have a guy who is going to be on the inch of grass that he needs to be on every single play, he can be

the most productive receiver in the week. Yes. Yes. And it's not only just execution. It's like any receiver can get to all six yards and then snagging the ball. and making a guy bouncing off of a guy. And it's, I'll say it again. I don't know. They haven't come up with like a real, real version of war yet in football. But it's like, that's what Cooper Cup is. Like his war, his wins above replacement.

Like he is so valuable on a play to play basis. Because like you said, the matter of details, that route is eight yards. He's getting all of eight yards. And he's going to break the guy off because he understands what they're trying to accomplish on that play. It's really, really fun to watch. I can't imagine how Sean McVeigh's feel every single day going on now. must be so fun they're Bob Miller too

you can feel it they're having a good time with that all of fun and it feels that way all right speaking of having a good time it's time to get chukapati on here

let's do this all right it's time now for this week's pick segment I am very happy to welcome our good friend chokopati how you doing buddy doing well I feel energized

I feel caffeinated I'm ready to make some picks baby and the reason for that is because both of you both of you pick the lions as your lukewarm lock of the week last week. And as your punishment,

you both had to go get the Dan Campbell coffee order today, which consists of two venty coffees with two shots of espresso in each one black, and you both had to drink them. Please show the people your coffees to prove that you have done this. There they are. Matching, matching cups too. For those of you're listening on the show right now,

they Bolsh has held up two vente Starbucks cups. This is a thing that happened. They made good on this, which I appreciate. I ordered them. I got them. I'm working on one. I drink black coffee anyway. So, you know, I, that's upsetting to know.

I wish I hadn't known that. So do I. So, yeah, it tastes fine with the espresso in there. Like, I don't mind it. Now, in terms of drinking both of these, that's not going to happen in one sitting. Like, I was earlier today Googling Dan Campbell's order and I think some, like, radio host somewhere, went ahead and did this. And then he posted like a TikTok of himself in bed.

like Googling, can too much caffeine make you die or like have a heart attack? And I'm like, all right. When you get older, you know, like my dad, if he just doesn't want to do something, I'm not doing that. And so I'm reaching that stage in my life where I'm like, all right, I want to be a good sport. If I drink both of these things, it's not going to be good for me, for my family, for my career, for my kids. It will be a life-altering experience.

So as you can tell, I'm rambling like, you know, 100 words a minute. So it's doing the job. I I when I ordered mine the the barista was actually without I was kidding like because I was like I actually went in I was going to do drive through but I was like I want to get this order right and I was like all right so I get two black vanties you know that's 20 ounce right yeah I have no okay and then I was okay and then I want a double shot of espresso in each one and he was like okay so I got two ice coffees with two shots of espresso I'm like no no no two black coffees with two shots of espresso in each one and he was like okay so you want two shots of it was like he just couldn't understand. And he just goes, this is just for you? And I was like, yeah, it is. But it's like Starbucks gets some of those crazy orders. We see him on Twitter all the time.

We're the 20, 40 adjustments and stuff. And it was like getting a double shop of espresso on a black coffee. It was like, no, what? We can't do that. Like your heart will explode. It was like, yeah. But it took a lot longer than I was expecting. I feel like by the end I was yelling.

It's like, I lost a bet. That guy you were referencing on TikTok, she was actually, Zach Schwarzschwar to I worked with the ringer. So which is funny. like everything all comes for a circle here. But you guys are going to be nice and caffeinated, nice and energized here. Just in a beautiful bit of poetry.

You both got your other picks right last week. You each went two and one. But both got the lions wrong. Not just got the lions wrong. In spectacular fashion. At what point you were like, I have made a horrible mistake. Was it the first or second Boston Scott touchdown?

You know, I think it was, I think the lions were down 17-0 near the end of the first half, but as the listeners know if you're a gambler, you're going, well, you know what? They score here at the end of the half. They get the ball bat. You're still talking yourself into it.

When the lions with 13 seconds left in the first half, I believe it was, called timeout so that they could go for it on fourth down. Again, 13th from like the 23-yard line. I'm going, wait, what do you? There's no upside here. I love going for it on fourth down. This is the one time you do not go for it on fourth down. They go for it.

And I can't remember if that was the fourth down where Jared Gough took a sack, where Jared got threw the ball away on fourth down because he did both of those things in that game. That was the point. Not that you were in. You know what? I don't think this is going to go well for me. It was funny because as soon as they started running the ball,

the Eagles did, I was like, oh, we're screwed. We're screwed. That was the whole angle. They don't run the ball. Right. It was amazing for me because my fantasy team that no one cares about.

I just had this glaring hole the entire season of my second running back spot. And I'm sitting there having to choose in the morning between Sony Michelle and Boston Scott, and I was like, my life has gone horribly wrong. Like, I have taken a turn here. I'm spending an hour going back and forth here on this. I end up because I'm thinking, oh, I don't know about Jordan Howard, and is Kenneth Gainwell going to get all that work?

Are the Rams going to be winning by five touchdowns? And Michelle gets like a late touchdown. How do I do this? I went with Boston Scott. He scored two touchdowns, and I'm just cackling the entire time. Because I know that my great moment here is the downfall for each of you guys. I've never, you've never been more excited when you call me on Sunday when we go over, get ready for the show. You were just like, hey, how are you doing?

I was like, yeah, great, great, great. What we're talking about tonight? Hey, you know what? You guys got both of these wrong. At least you got the Rams at 14 and a half instead of 16. Right. Could you imagine having been a Rams minus 16 and a half better and watching that game go the way that it did? I would just go for a long walk and never come home.

Or having a minus 16 and the super. contest like I did and it pushed that was that was fun yeah that was a lot of fun all right well let's let the pain keep rolling here and get to our week nine picks uh shiel you are up 18 and a half to eight and a half on the season no ground was made up last week no either of you so you're kicking us off again here show what is your first pick for week nine i'm like looking at these picks and which one of these is going to be my lukewarm lock i never decide ahead of time it's a feel thing you know i'm like i'm like an n-l-ckel co-combe on fourth down, hey, you know, go ahead.

Like Mike Zimmer. Someone yelled, call time out and I call time out. That's what I feel like. So this is absolutely true about Mike Zimmer in Fort Downs, by the way. They do not know. But in the past, when they've just been deciding whether to go for it on Fort Down and they don't know. Like the offensive coaches don't know if he wants to go for it on Fort Down. This is a real thing.

It's just a whim. Yeah, yeah, yeah, go for it. Let's see what happens on third down. Yeah, usually. Let's start with a big line. You know, they came through for me last week. I'm going to like pull a page out of the Nate Tice playbook when a team's good to you. Stick with them.

And so the Buffalo bills were good to me last week. It didn't look great. I was nervous. I was sweating it out for a while. But they got the Josh Allen touchdown late and they covered against the dolphins. They have another big line here. They're going to Jacksonville as 14 and a half point favorites. I'm going to take Buffalo once again.

all of their wins this season have been by 15 points or more. And so they, you know, when they're going well, they don't take their foot off the gas. When they're in that middle ground, they don't just sit on the ball. They're aggressive.

This to me is one of the biggest coaching mismatches and talent mismatches in the NFL this season. I don't know if anyone watched this Jaguars game against Seattle last week, but they had a stretch. Zero seconds of it. I watched zero seconds of the game. Let me tell. There were two highlights you,

missed. Okay, one of them was the Jaguars get called for 12 men on the field on defense. All right, you know, you don't want that to happen, but that happens. Next play before the ball is snapped, time out. Why? They still have 12 men on the field. I've never seen this before. I feel like I've watched a lot of football in my life. Maybe it's happened. Maybe it hasn't, but that was an incredible moment. And then the end of the game, they're down 24-0. They score a touchdown, which you're not going to win the game, but you're down 24-0-0. If you're going to try to win the game with two minutes left,

that will be three touchdowns, three-two-point conversions. They kick the extra point, making it 24-7, and then they kick the on-site kick after that. Because then you're like, oh, they're just trying to get home, you know, whatever. Unbelievable. Just pretend that you're paying attention, Jacksonville. So, you know, this is one of those where I look at some of these games and go, how can I live with myself on a Sunday afternoon?

And so I could not live with myself if I picked the Jaguars to cover this and they got blown out. If somehow something fluky happens and they get a special team score or something weird happens with the bills and the bills don't cover, I'm okay with that, but I feel good about bills minus 14 and a half. I love that your guiding principle, your North Star and all of this is what's going to make me hate myself the least. Yeah, that's gambling. That's sports betting in a nutshell right there. Nate, what do you got for me, buddy? What's your first one here? God, going off of that. I go with, I'm going to go with, hey, just like Schill said, I'm going to

go with the team that's done well for me in the past. I'm going to go with the Vikings plus six at the Ravens. Even coming off this Cowboys game, I rewatch this game. We didn't get to watch too much of it when it was live, Robert, because we were prepping for the pod, but like rewatching it on film, Cowboys first off are a good team,

even without DAC in there. But I do think this Vikings team, even with DeNeil Hunter banged up or out of there, I thought this defense was coming along. And it's not like it's DeNeil Hunter is like winning right away and getting them 12 sacks a game, you know, like three sacks a game and 15 hits a game. And just like dominating the game. He's a good, good player.

But it's not, I don't think it's just maybe the blemish isn't maybe as drastic as that first sight. It's a good player. It's so hard to say that because I'm always going to say that. But this coffee is already kicking in. But the Ravens, but on the flip side, like with the Ravens stuff is I think this game is just going to be closer. I think the Ravens do win, but it's going to be a closer game. Just the styles how the Vikings like to play. They're going to just run the ball.

They're going to pound the rock. They're going to do their thing. In order to get man coverage, I think Justin Jefferson and Theon, can legitimately win against man coverage. Just throw out wherever Humphrey's not. Cousins has been very good against man coverage over the last couple of years. It is an area where they have done very well as an offense, even when other parts of what they do has struggled, right?

It makes sense. Right. They have talent and receiver. Yeah, he's hit more go balls. I think that anybody else in the NFL this year. That's what it feels like anecdotally. Miss Jefferson by half an inch last week, too. I mean, there are opportunities with those guys.

Jefferson lost in the lights, too. It was all. I know. It was, oh, I know. But that is why I'm going to go with this. I just think this Vikings team, I have been really liking what their defense is done, even going into last week, even with the Neil Hunter out. I thought they were getting healthier. Anthony Barr coming back has really helped some stuff.

I know he's banged up too. They're all banged up. They're all old. And then as far as offensively, how they've tweaked into 11 personnel, I think last week they tried to do too much of their game plan. They didn't adjust to what the Cowboys were doing to them. We talked about this before, Robert. The Cowboys adjusted and changed their game plan from what they've done before in the past. And I think the Vikings were like, oh, sure.

they didn't really adapt to that. But I think they're just not going to get caught in that type of situation. This game's going to be closer than it looks. I think it's going to be a good matchup. So I'm going to take the points at plus six. Yeah. Yeah, that's a tough one. When I was doing my column,

I really struggled with that pick. I ended up taking the Ravens. And just because I was like, if it's close, Harbaugh, I think is one of the best game management guys in the league. And what I saw with the, I didn't know this.

Chad Graff wrote this in his column that Cousins isn't allowed to signal time out. I don't know if that is that normal or not? I mean, it's not, right? I think it was normal. But some of those things, I'm like, well, I don't know how crazy that is or not. Zimmer shoved him under the bus. And then I think cousins grabbed him by the caller. I was like, nope, you're coming with me.

Because I think he said afterwards, he was like, oh, that's news to me. He was like, I didn't know. Like, you know, like, yeah. So I think, yeah. I mean, they seriously are just hitting each other in the chest after every game. They just tried to fight. Yeah, the end of the first half and the end of the game. I mean, they screwed it up in a huge way where it's just like, I know that they,

sometimes that stuff's overblown. And it's like I really am interested in that. So I feel like I focus on it too much. But it's like if you're, you know, a coach throughout the week, they're sleeping in their office, they're grinding, film. You know, Zimmer's coming up with amazing defensive game plans. And then you're in the game and you're like that last drive. You know, I did the math on it.

The Vikings could have had the ball with like a minute 20 left and a timeout. And instead they had the ball with like, you know, 50 seconds and no timeouts. And it's like, all right, maybe they want to score it anyway. But come on, maximize your chances of winning. So that's why I got. scared and went with the Ravens. It's the funniest thing with coaches. I've always just blown my mind with it.

They'll focus so much on certain little things. And then the things that are actually important, like the game. It's like, oh, that's not on me. I don't know what challenges are. It's like, come on. Like, you know, it's like, don't put it to some guy that you're paying 50 grand to. Like actually, you should probably take ownership of that. That's why you get paid the big bucks.

I know. That's why when you have a coach that has such an influence on one side of the ball, just have somebody that does that stuff for you. Right. Just have a guy up there that does. that shit for you. It's not crazy. Everyone does it.

It just makes too much sense. All right, Sheila, what's your second one? Oh yeah, that's my pick, by the way. We just dogged them. So yeah,

go bikes. I'm going to go to Cincinnati, but I'm going to take the underdog here and go with the Cleveland Browns plus two and a half at the Bengals. It was plus three when I wrote it up. I wish it was still at plus three for the show, but I'm going to be honest and say it's not.

It's plus two and a half. I just look at this. This is like a key spot for the Browns here in their season. I mean, four and four, you had the Odell Beckham Jr. stuff. You're going to Foxborough next week. Like, they really, really need this game. They would be two games back,

potentially of two teams in the AFC North, if they lose here. And so I look at that game last week. You know, they had the turnover on downs early, which I know you guys talked about the fourth down struggles. It's so weird. I mean, you look at their personnel and their coach and their offensive line, and you're like, this team should be crushing on fourth and short.

but obviously they've had their issues. They had the Jarvis Landry fumble, but I felt like there were some things that just didn't go their way. I mean, Friermouth makes an amazing catch on fourth down. And so just if like one or two of those things went their way, I think they easily could have won that game against the Steelers. I thought Nick Chub looked good. I still believe in their offensive line.

I still believe in their defensive line. I think this is a game where they can really do some damage up front on both sides of the ball. So I kind of feel like you're going to find out what kind of team they are. what kind of culture they have. How good of a coach is Kevin Stefansky. I think he's a really, a really good coach. But this is kind of one of those weeks where you want to see them come out and say, hey, we're okay, kind of stabilize their season a little bit and say,

we're still going to be a playoff team. So I'm kind of putting my faith in them. I like the Bengals. The Bengals seem to just make me nervous every week. I mean, it feels like they can always score on a big play. But some of the coaching stuff, some of the decisions, they go through these stretches where you're going, wait a minute, I'm not a full believer in you guys yet. I really like Joe Burrow, so I could be regretting this one,

but I just feel like I trust the Browns in this spot as an underdog. That's kind of how I feel about the Bengals right now, where so many of the plays they've made, huge plays that they've made this year are just guys making a play. Jamar Chase has just been exceptional in some of those moments, Burrow out of structure. I mean, think about the touchdown they had against the Packers. It's a perfect example.

They've had four or five of those this year, where it has nothing to do with any. The bear's touchdown was the same way. So I agree with you. I think I believe in a lot of the young players that they have. I still don't believe in all of the details and just how tight everything is there. That's well said. So you look at, I do want to say this, though.

Do you want the list of guys who were not at practice for the Browns on Wednesday? Oh, gosh. You ready? This happens every week to me. He did this to me a few weeks ago. And I was like, oh, no, after I made the pick. Devi and Clowny, Jarvis Landry, Odo, Beckham, J.C. Tredder, Malik Jackson, Malik, Malik McDowell.

Donovan Peoples Jones, Tack McKinley, Jack Conklin, John Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Jermaya, Wusukarama. Oh, my gosh. Okay. So go for us. Every week. I swear every week I make my pick and then, you know, I sign off. I check Twitter.

And every week, the team I picked, there are like eight tweets. This, oh, surprise. This guy's not practicing this week. I'm like, oh, sweet. Okay. Good job, Shil. All right. They've got depth.

They'll be okay. Yeah. I actually almost went with the Browns as well. I end up switching to the Vikings. So it was kind of, might have to put a little something on that one as well. So I, I'm going to go with, I'm just going back to the ones who brought me. I don't know if this has actually helped me. I got to keep, I got to keep my stats on this.

And this is just genuine to how I look at this game. Going to the chargers minus one and a half at the Eagles. And that is just chargers need a freaking win. They need to figure out what they are. And I think they are. I trust this coaching stuff. We talked about Staley enough. They are going to be self-scouting.

They're going to understand what these deficiencies are going with them. I assume that. I am trusting Justin Herbert. I am trusting just this offense to be not as stagnant as it's been the last few weeks. And they're due for a pop. You can't just be getting squatted on for weeks and weeks and weeks. Like something's going to happen. This is the way to do it.

You're going to face a team that you know what the coverages are going to be. You're going to know what you're going to get. You know you're not going to be facing this attacking, moving front, funky stuff like the Patriots ran. I think it's a great matchup for their offense against that defense. And then on the flip side, you know, Jaywin Hertz is going to do his thing. I know that they finally, Eagles figure out that they can hand the ball off. Like, I know they figured that out last week. And I know that's the Chargers' biggest weakness.

But that's a big thing. Is it base or is it sub? That's the big thing for the Chargers. They're better out of sub than they are out of base. Do the Eagles understand that as well? I don't know. I think the Chargers are a better team, obviously. I'm going to take it's only point and a half.

Yeah, I'm going to go with the Chargers. Imagine this line three weeks ago. Right? That's what. That's literally what got me. Wait a minute. What is going on here is Herbert's hand. actually falling off.

Like I know he was on the injury report. Like, is he going to have to throw left handed here? How is this a point and a half? Yeah, that was, I mean, I was with you.

I almost made this. I did pick the chargers in my column. I thought about making it one of my picks here. But I feel like if I lost on the Eagles twice in a row living in this market, like, you know, you already take some heat. So I figured I would stay away. But yeah,

even the Eagles defense last week is so funny. Like the basic things with their defense, you're like, like they had a zero blitz last week. And I almost like fell out of. my chair. Oh my gosh. Wow. Look at it. They played cover three like more than they had previous. Oh my single what is going on here. Wow. They really are cooking some stuff up this week. I will say this. There's a slight gap between what Justin Herbert can give you and what Jared Goff and that lion's

offense can give you. So yeah. I just reminded me, she'll like I remember my dad's first year as a coach in 2002. We played the Lions in week 17. It was just a nothing game. Five and 11 versus like, you know, three and 13 team. And like in the first. First is when Joey Harrington was a quarterback, if you want to know what days of the lines this was. They're in the under center to start the first play. And then they shifted to shotgun. And the crowd went nuts. I swear to God, this is a true story.

I was there in person. They were under center shifted to shotgun. That's all he did. He just stepped back in the back move from the eye to the offset crowd and a forward feel. Just went nuts. I was like, oh, boy, this is a great matchup. We're watching here. That's when you know.

Yeah. So all of those guys come from the homegrown world, right? And it's that like classic home grin story where they tried to run something from the shotgun. When Farve was in Green Bay and he says when you get your own team, you can do that shit. Those like old school West Coast guys, they screwed up one shotguns that in practice. Bradshoulders tells the story. It's like one shotguns to have in practice because they tried to do it. And HomeGerman was like, fuck it.

It's out. Yeah. We're not doing this. Those old school West Coast guys, especially with quarterback stuff, it would be so obnoxious. They'd be like, hey, it's a seven step drop, three steps you're here, five steps you're here, seven steps you're here, you hitch that ball goes here. You got all five are alive on this. And it's like, yeah, I'm not Joe Montana, dude. Like, yeah, Joe Montana could do that with the 49ers.

It's like not every quarterback's going to be able to do that. How much do you think it pains Mike Holmgren to watch the Chief's version of the West Coast offense? Just slowly parts of him are dying every time he gets to see it. It's like, Andy, you betrayed me. You've strayed so far from. the tree. All right. And then it all comes full circle because I've been spending my week talking about how

the Eagles finally ran some under center runs with some play action off of it. Yeah. I mean, in 2021, I don't know how many hours there, so they took to till week eight for, you know, they, they ran for over 100 yards on under center runs. And then Jalen Hurts, some quick play action hitting Dallas. I mean, outstanding. Good old football, baby. The idea they were something.

You listen to this podcast. We're celebrating 21 personnel. Yeah. These teams run these four wide receivers. sets. What is this crap? It's amazing how it all comes back around. More CJ Hayabs. All right. I guess I'm going to go ahead and make this the lukewarm lock of the week. I don't know if I liked it that much more than the others. I am curious if this is going to be Nate's as well. But I'm going with the San Francisco 49ers plus one

at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray has a little bit of an ankle issue. I'm just wondering if it's going to be like Groundhog's Day for the Cardinals. You know, you look at it last year, first eight weeks, Kyler Murray's ripping the league up. All of a sudden, he has the injury. And in the second half of the year, they're like the 25th best offense. And, you know, same thing so far here.

I hope that the ankle injury doesn't hamper him, but certainly it has to give you some pause before taking the Cardinals in this game. And I just thought the 49ers offense last week, like, finally, that was the best version we've seen of that all season long, 467 yards. They didn't punt. And so I look at this game.

they played earlier this season. Week 5, Tray Lance played in that game. I think we talked about it, I think, during the segment I remember. But even in that game, they drove into Cardinals territory on eight of nine possessions, but ended up with only 10 points. So there was some flukiness there. Now you got, you know, Garoppelos in there. He's healthy.

I'm not sure about Kyler Murray's ankle. And they did a pretty good job on that Arizona offense, even when Murray was healthy there. So it's never, I mean, Kyler Murray is like, well, you don't want to be on the other side of Kyler Murray, like for the viewing experience. 13, the scramble starts. Oh, my gosh. It's just like, all right, I think the Niners have him. And then all of a sudden it's just, you know, when you guys talk about guys who can get a bucket, like Kyler and DeAndre is just, that is the ultimate.

Those guys will just get you a bucket in a key spot, you know, four minutes left in the third quarter. You're not sure which way the game's going to go. And all of a sudden, boom, back to back plays. And they're driving in there for touchdown. So I'm not looking forward to the viewing experience on Sunday. but when I looked at it, I like the Niners' chances here. I love that we're two weeks removed from everyone trying to shoot Kyle Shanahan into the sun and the Niners are seventh and offensive DVOA.

Yeah, I know, with whatever it was going on with their quarterback situation. He's a handoff machine. He is a handoff machine that occasionally flips the ball to Debo Samuel and they're 12th in passing DVOA. Yeah. He's a very good offensive coach. I know. With a functional quarterback, they are going to be a pretty good offense.

And last week we got to see Zonery Jimmy G. Like we got to see. How about that? Multiple times, right? Then he just take a botched snap and he was like, I've taken it myself. I got this. I got this boy. Sure.

Hey, they say last week he's going to learn from the vets and maybe the vets can learn from a rookies. He was like, oh, he saw Trey Lancy. He's like, I can do that. If last week had been another bad offensive day for the Bears, I would have been a long few days for me. But I had my five or six Justin Fields moments and that's all. I have playing with house money. Doesn't matter that the Niners move the ball up and down the field. In the long run, we have to have perspective.

That's not important. But if I hadn't had those five or six moments, I would have been a sad man. Pretty much all the way through today, I assume. That was like the perfect rookie quarterback game. It took me back to like watching Donovan McNabb in high school. You know, you're just like, oh my gosh, you're getting there. And yeah, I thought it actually, this sounds like weird to say

because I feel like there's been so much field talk. I feel like it didn't get enough hype this week. I didn't see that game live. When I rewatched it Monday, I'm like, this is outstanding. I think they scored on five of seven drives. I mean, there was the out of structure stuff, but they were moving the ball consistently. Like I was excited about that performance against a, you know,

against a pretty good defense. So yeah, that is, you know, it's there's Zach Wilson where you haven't like seen almost any, a lot of that this year. But for field, it's like, yes, I don't care if we lost. I'm excited about my rookie quarterback after watching that game. Yes. Kevin Jenkins back. Larry Borenum.

played well last week at right tackle well well enough 60 million dollars in cap space new coaching staff you go six and 11 this year this is where we're at this is where we're headed it's all i want i love that i love how we've you've you've used the lion's talk for weeks and weeks to prep for your bears talk now this is always how i felt all that mattered was whether he looked good and whether that's it his season what no scar tissue are the lows not low enough for the damage to be long term. That was all I cared about for the 2021 season. That's it. He came from that Bucks game, that Bucks performance and did what he did last week is like, that's what Bears. Oh, that dude is bulletproof. They should be doing flips. He is a boy. He is a cyborg.

The idea that this stuff has not affected him is incredible. He does not flinch. It is amazing to watch. To his own detriment, by the way, but he still does not flinch. It has been very impressive. All right, Nate, what's your last one here? I'm glad we get snuck Justin Fields talk into the fucking big segment. This is great. We just got to have coffee before. I have just talking about all over favorite players. I was going to say we can do every game this week if you want. Like, I'm not, you know, I got nothing. I'm just going to be walking around annoying my family for the next three hours as I talk on stock.

So yeah, if we want like an extended segment on YouTube or something, maybe picking every game the rest of the year. We don't have to limit it to week nine. I'm happy to do that. We can discuss it. We do over unders for the second half of the year. Let's do that wins, win totals. Don't sign yourself up for something like that show if you're not willing to cash in on that.

I will keep you here for another hour. and we will put it on YouTube. I got nothing to do. No one cares about me. I got no life at this point. I have three hours. My fiance is on vacation. I will do anything.

Listen, I'll be happy to spend the time. All right, Nate, what's your last one? I'm going to make this my lukewarm lock. I got to make up points. So we're hitting the second half of the year. We're doing it.

I am going to go with a team that is really just like, I don't know. I can't believe how much I'm like you. I can't believe I'm saying that. I picked them, I bet on the Wend to AFC East. That's like a little big bet. But I'm going to go.

with the Patriots, minus three and a half at the Panthers. I am, as we talked about on Sunday, Robert, I am pretty high on the Patriots and now getting to watch a couple more of their games or kind of rewatch them,

actually. It was like, I think this is legit. I think this defense, and it's not like they're the sexiest team. I'm not saying that either side of the ball is a juggernaut. They're not that what that Patriots defense

was a couple years ago. I just think this is a good unit that makes it really, really hard on offenses, especially on quarterbacks that aren't with it every snap. You have to be mentally sharp against this Patriots defense because they just,

how they just use the linebackers, really. But also just the DV stuff, how they move them around. And shoot out is a menace right now. Yeah. And they're bringing them some fun pressures that are just a little, just the little one-ease they're bringing. When I say one-ease, I just mean these one-off ones where it's like,

you only see it once a game. And it's just like, oh. And so it's like, I'm not used to that with the Belichick defense. I am, but I'm not. Offensively, Mac Jones is improving. They're learning to push the ball with him more. Like they're getting stuff that he's more comfortable with. he's getting more comfortable under center.

And I think that's actually helped a lot of their passing game. I just think I really like this team. I think it's a good matchup. We talked about earlier this year, this Panthers defense, they are built to get the third down. They just want to hold on, hold the fort until they get the third down.

It's almost like the Vikings a little bit. Hold the fort until they get the third down and what's heat them up and what's just do our shit. But the thing is that we talked about the beginning of the year was that they could be a little light in the pants a little bit up front. And you're going against this Patriots offense that is built. on being bullyball. Like they're running counter.

They're running lead stuff. They're fullback. Is it Jason Jackson? Might be butchering his name. It's Jacob Johnson. Jacob Johnson. Jacob Johnson. Yeah.

Close. The German player, he is like, they just use them as another lineman. I mean, we laugh about the Cowboys being like Connor McGovern as the fullback as the sixth alignment. That's just what this guy is full time. So it's like that's what they're built to do. And I think they could take advantage of this Patriots or this Panthers defense.

I like the matchup. It was minus three. went up to minus three and a half, but still I'm going to take them, Patriots on the road. It just feels like two teams headed in different directions, right? Yes.

You can get that at the right moment. This seems like the week where things could really kind of shift in the way that we view both of those teams. Seems like they really are headed in those opposite projections. All right, guys, that's all we got. Shield,

thanks a lot, buddy. I hope you're not up until 3 a.m. today. Well, I don't know, I kind of hope you are. You deserve picking the lines last week. Yeah, I'll send you. I'll do like selfie videos or something for my picks for, I don't know. We'll face time after Thursday. I'll call Nate up.

You know, he'll be up. He's on the West Coast. He's going to, I mean, our reactions when you texted these to us. You know, I was like, well, I'm not, yeah, I'm not drinking two of these. I'll go order them and be a good sport. Nate's like, I'm in. Let's go. I updated you guys each step of the way too.

He's a football guy, man. He's ready to just crush these two ventis espresso. I can't eat ice cream like after 9 p.m. So I can't be pounding both these things. I'll be like, I'll be in bed for a week. I can't imagine the caffeine or stimulant sort of experiences and stories Nate has seen in the midst of NFL buildings. Oh, my God.

What's the what? I'll tell you water real quick. What's the like, like, Kevo or whatever you spray in the water? You know, it gives you like the little energy. Oh, meo. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

I've seen guys just straight up squirt that in their mouth, like with no water. And that stuff is like pure caffeine and just like B12 vitamins and stuff like that. See guys just squirt that in their mouth. That's horrifying. Oh, no, triple ground coffees. It's like little bags. They triple layer it. Oh, just any energy substance you can find in the coaching world.

Oh, goodness gracious. All right, guys, that's all we got. As always, you guys are good sports. Appreciate you doing this. Thank you guys for listening. Please, if you would, go leave a review and a rating of the podcast on Apple or wherever you listen to your podcast. If you, that's an option for you, I appreciate that.

Please subscribe to the athletic. Theathletic. Theathletic.com slash football show. You can check out Shields and picks and all of the other great stuff that we have. at The Athletic. I'm telling you, you need a subscription if you're going to properly

follow the league. We will be back on Sunday night, me and Nate, recapping all things week nine. Until then, enjoy your weekend. Talk to you guys soon. This was the Athletic Football Show.