The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Divisional Round best bets and picks against the spread

Episode Date: January 15, 2021

The NFL is down to its final eight teams, which means we're running out of opportunities to bet on the league this season. Michael Beller and Vic Tafur have you covered on this week's precious few gam...es with our latest episode of The Athletic Football Show.Can the Rams keep rolling, or will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers cover the 6.5-point spread. Who comes away with the win and cover in Ravens-Bills? Can the Browns at least keep things close against the Chiefs? And can the Saints topple the Buccaneers for the third time this season, covering in the process? Or does Tom Brady have some more playoff magic in his arm? The guys answer all those questions, and offer up their favorite bets of the weekend.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is the Athletic Football Show. Round of the NFL playoffs are here, and we are here on the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast and the Athletic Football Show to get you ready for this weekend's games from a betting perspective. I am Michael Beller, your host, joined as always by Vic Tafer. Vic, how you doing today? Good, bud, how you doing? I'm doing well. I'm excited for this weekend.
Starting point is 00:00:39 Last weekend lived up to the billing, right? our first six-game playoff weekend in the NFL, and it was a lot of fun. Back to the usual four games that we have been accustomed to for quite a while now, and I'm looking forward to it. But before we can look forward to it, let's just take a quick look back last weekend. What did you take away from last weekend from a betting perspective?
Starting point is 00:01:03 Did any team open your eyes? Who were you most impressed with? Are you taking anything from last week in applying it to this week? Yeah, I was going to say, first off, that's a lot of football. I watched six games in two days. That's quite a toll. But my biggest takeaways were the Ravens. I remember back when we talked before the season about how much I liked them and their roster and where they were built.
Starting point is 00:01:23 And they definitely impressed me the way they bounced back against the Titans. The team that's had a number in the last couple of years. That was an impressive way, both defensively and offensively. I'm actually going to change my mind this week because of it. So for me, the biggest takeaway was the Ravens. Yeah, 10-0 they got down in that game. and I was on the Titans last week. I was one of the games I picked incorrectly,
Starting point is 00:01:43 and I was feeling very good after Tennessee got up 10-0. And then from there on, it was just a completely dominant performance by the Ravens. They ended up outscoring the Titans 20 to 3 from that point forward. And even though the Titans had multiple bites at it, right, they had the bizarre punt by Mike Frable down by four points from Baltimore's 40 on a fourth and two with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. They were only down four points at that time.
Starting point is 00:02:07 Then they got the ball back, down seven. technically they were never anywhere close to being out of that game. But once the Ravens took the lead, it felt as though they had total control of that game. That's going to be a fun one we've got this week, Buffalo and Baltimore, one of our couple of games on Saturday. You had four and two a week ago,
Starting point is 00:02:27 so congratulations to you. Off to a hot start. I went three and three last week, so a little bit ahead of me in terms of that. Those are our absolute picks again. As we run through these games, we're going to make picks on every single game, not necessarily playing them for real by putting money down on them.
Starting point is 00:02:43 We're here to talk about the games, talk them through, help guide your decision-making processes over the rest of the weekend, and we'll let you know which games we're actually going to play and which ones we're just talking about for the sake of conversation. Saturday, everything gets kicked off in divisional round in the NFC with the Packers and the Rams. The Packers are six and a half-point favorites. 45 and a half is the over-under.
Starting point is 00:03:05 Los Angeles just totally controlled that game against Seattle. Another one of those games that was scoreboard close, but felt like the Rams were totally in control of it, really, from start to finish. And they lose John Wolford. Jared Goff comes in. He can't quite throw the ball the way that we would be used to seeing from him. But still, that defense and Cam Acres dominated the game, getting the Rams of the victory and moving them on to face Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:03:30 Of course, this is the first that we have seen Green Bay in this year's playoffs after having the week off as the NFC's one seed a week ago. They are appropriately laying close to a touchdown here. Where are you going on this one, Vic? You feel in the Packers? You feel in the Rams. You were all over the Rams as a potential upset Super Bowl selection. Are you sticking with that or do you think the Packers can ultimately cover in this one?
Starting point is 00:03:53 Yeah, I chickened out. I was definitely all over the Rams a week ago. But that was a great game. They played a phenomenal game. Defensively, they were dominant. But just the injuries you mentioned. I mean, Aaron Donald obviously is going to play, but not 100%. I mean, Woffredd is done.
Starting point is 00:04:09 And Jared Goff, I mean, he's had trouble with 10 fingers. Now he's got nine. So I'm not, I really like my 9-figure quarterback in the snow of cold weather and Green Bay. So I am definitely chickening out. I'm off the Rams and I'm on the Packers. It's got the feeling of a game where the Rams defense is going to keep it close early, but it's going to get worn down and worn down and worn down. And you can only stop this Green Bay offense.
Starting point is 00:04:34 many times without getting anything from your own offense. And so if you don't have the competence in the Rams offense, being able to at least make this a 20 to 17 or 24 to 21 style a game, it's hard to back the Rams. And I'm on the same train with you here. We've seen this so many times in Aaron Rogers' career when he plays the Bears, when the Bears are a one-sided team that has a very good defense and an offense that just can't hack it. And they keep it close over the first half, and then the Packers pull away in the second half. We just saw that in week 17, a game that was closer than I expected it to be through the first half,
Starting point is 00:05:08 but then you give Aaron Rogers that many opportunities and your offense doesn't do anything for you. He's eventually going to be able to take advantage of any defense, no matter how good it is, if it is playing at less than 100% in terms of stamina. You throw the Aaron Donald injury on there, and that is where things, I think, start to go off the rails a little bit for the Rams. The one thing I think that they do have going for them in a big way in this game, Vic, is actually you know what there are two things I think they have going for them the fact that they can run the ball
Starting point is 00:05:34 that's been the packers defense bugaboo all season and we see we've seen camakers over the second half of the season and last week against the seahawks really take control of this backfield and turn the run game into a weapon in a way that we haven't really seen since what was that 2018 yeah the Super Super Bowl Todd Gurley we really haven't seen that from the Rams since then and we've seen him be able to take the offense to a level where they're able to control the ball and control the clock and I think that could work for them. And then Jalen Ramsey on Devante Adams is something that. I'm not saying Jalen Ramsey wins that battle necessarily,
Starting point is 00:06:08 but it is something that could play to the Rams favor. But again, I am getting to a point where you're really talking about a lot of dominoes stacking up in a row for the Rams. And I just can't get there. So I am with you on the Packers. And it's one I'm going to play too. I'm probably avoiding the total. I could see the total going either way here at 45 and a half.
Starting point is 00:06:26 I'm not going to be making any plays there. but I'm not only leeing the Packers, it's one that I don't yet have any money on, but I can promise you I will by time this one kicks off on Saturday. How confident are you in this one? Is it one you're going to play or one we're just talking about here and you're going to pass? Yeah, I'm going to play all four.
Starting point is 00:06:43 I mean, I'm going to go for it. But yeah, I think, like I said, I just think, as we even mentioned Cooper Cup. Cooper Cup hasn't practiced because of his knee injury, and that's a big deal. If he's even, he probably will play, but it won't be his normal self. So I just think, like, you mentioned,
Starting point is 00:06:55 I love Cam Acres, but the Packers should be able to stack the bottom. and not really pay the price for it. So I think the packers are the play here. It's just, right, there's just too many things. There's too many things here to be working against a team going up against not only a one seed, not only on the road, in adverse weather conditions. We know it's going to be cold in Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:07:17 You really can't expect anything else in Green Bay, Wisconsin in the middle of January, than some cold temperatures. But just the best team in the NFC. I think they proved that over the balance of the season, and they go into the playoffs hot, and it's just a lot. a factor stacking up against the Rams to want to play them here. If we were talking Rams against the Saints in the Superdome, maybe it's a little bit different,
Starting point is 00:07:36 but we're not talking that. We're talking Rams and the Packers. We're both on the Packers here and both willing to play this one too. So feeling good about Green Bay being able to move on to the NFC championship game. All right, next game up is the first game in the AFC. This is the Saturday nightcap. We hinted at it already. Bills and Ravens, the Bills are two and a half point favorites in this game.
Starting point is 00:07:57 We've got an over under sitting at 50. This one's been going back and forth, but it's been living in the low 50s. And so you can expect it to be going off there when this game actually does kick off on Saturday evening. We're on different pages here, Vic, so I'll let you take it away first. Do you like the Ravens? I like the Bills. What has you on the Ravens here? Yeah, just like I mentioned last week, I was definitely on the bills before the game last week.
Starting point is 00:08:19 But I was really impressed with not only the Ravens' defense, the pressure and their secondary, but also Lamar Jackson to me, obviously he can run the ball. But he made some passes on the sideline I was impressed with. So I think he's definitely got his confidence back after a rough stretch during the season. I think they're in a good spot. I think nothing to lose. Kind of everyone thinks the bills are going to advance. So plus the weather, I think the weather might be a factor.
Starting point is 00:08:40 It's supposed to be, I think, a 40% chance of snow. And so the running team usually does better in those kind of conditions in the passing team. So those are the reasons why I'm on the Ravens. People want to default to thinking that the team that is, you know, from that city is going to have the advantage with the weather. That is not true when it comes to this. game, right? A bad weather, snow, that's going to hit a passing team way more than it hits a running team. The bills are one of not only the past happiest teams, but the best passing teams in the league all season. And so if weather is a factor, it is going to be a negative for the bills and a positive
Starting point is 00:09:14 for the Ravens. It's not like these guys grew up in Buffalo and now are playing for the Buffalo professional football team. It has happened to end up there to play professional football. So this is definitely a weather slant that would favor the visiting Baltimore Ravens. The reason why I do still like the Bills is really coming down to the line here. The line's sitting at two and a half. It's been under three pretty much this entire time. Maybe it gets down to two, maybe even gets down to one and a half. We're not going to see its swing over to Baltimore being favored.
Starting point is 00:09:45 But no matter where you're playing it, you're going to have Baltimore favored, or Buffalo favorite, excuse me, probably somewhere between one and a half and two and a half. And basically what that's asking you to do is pick the better team. It's not very often that we see a team be favored by one and a half or two points and cover or not win the game outright. No matter what side of it, you're backing, even if you're backing the dog, right? It's not likely that this is going to be a one-point game. And so I still think the bills are the better team. I still look at what the bills have done and the body of work that they've put up all season
Starting point is 00:10:14 and feel as though they go into this as the better team. We know that they still have some injuries that they're dealing with in their receiver core. but Stefan Diggs was fine last week. Cole Beasley, a little bit gimpy, but still fine, still brought to the table what you expect from Cole Beasley. The fact that we had no catches out of a healthy John Brown was a little bit of a surprise, no catches on four targets. Zach Moss, done for the playoffs. So that's going to be a little bit of a tricky element for Buffalo to figure out with how they get Devin Singletary a little bit more touches. Maybe they fold in the recently assigned Devante Freeman, who is right now sitting on the practice squad,
Starting point is 00:10:50 but have to imagine that he could be activated for this game on Saturday. I just still think that they're going to be the better team in this game. And I think it's going to be a game that really is defined by the offenses. You say that Baltimore's defense looked really good against Tennessee. They created a lot of pressure. They did a great job of slowing down and basically shutting down Derek Henry. And all that's true. But this still feels like a game that will be defined by the offenses and defined by the quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:11:18 And this is not necessarily a Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson. X-and-pick. But again, the two and a half, the better team, playing at home, it all adds up to me wanting to play the bills. So that is where I am ultimately going with this one. I will play it. You said you're playing all four, so you will play the Ravens. I will play the bills. Anything on the total, I kind of like the over. I'm not sure if I'm going to play it. But again, I feel like unless weather is a real factor, that the over is going to be the way to go here. It's something that I'm going to hold off on until Saturday. So we actually see what the weather is in Buffalo. But that would be the way that I trend in this game. How about you? Yeah, I can see that. I definitely, I mean, much respect to Josh Allen. He's so much better when he was a year ago. I know that Ravens gave him trouble last year,
Starting point is 00:12:01 but different quarterback in me. He's definitely more accurate, definitely more resilient and more resourceful. So, yeah, definitely it's a tough game. I definitely think it'll be a great game to watch. Best game of the weekend, do you think? I think so. I think it is, yeah. Yeah, so do I.
Starting point is 00:12:13 I think this is going to be the most contested game of the weekend. I think it's going to be the most fun game of the weekend when you consider the personalities of these two teams and these two offenses. I think we see some fireworks from both quarterbacks. I think it's going to be a really fun one, certainly, and obviously assuming the chalk plays in the other AFC game, the Chiefs will not have an easy road in the AFC championship game,
Starting point is 00:12:35 no matter who wins, Buffalo or Baltimore, Chiefs will have their hands full, assuming they're able to get past the Browns. And hey, that takes us right into Sunday and our first game on Sunday. It is the Chiefs and the Browns. The Chiefs are 10-point favorites. 57 is the over-under in this game.
Starting point is 00:12:50 I'm probably staying away from this one, Vic. If I was going to play it, you know, I'm starting off the week thinking Browns, Browns, 10 points is a lot of points. Kansas City hasn't covered a spread since, like, week eight. Every single win they've had since then has been six points or fewer. And, I mean, you remember this, Vic, in the regular season, I just kept coming back to the Chiefs, being like, this is the Chiefs, seven and a half, eight and a half, whatever. They're going to cover, and they just never quite got over the hump.
Starting point is 00:13:15 And they never quite covered spreads. When they come to covering spreads, they just haven't been a super-official. team this year. Six, nine and one against the spread. The Chiefs are on the season. And that includes week 17 when they sat all their starters. But take that off the board six, eight and one against the spread with Patrick Mahomes out there. And that's just not what you would be accustomed to seeing from, you know, the best offense, the defending Super Bowl champion, the best quarterback in the league, everything lined up. And they just haven't covered a ton of spreads. Now we're asking them to cover 10 against a Cleveland team that has won 12 games, including the playoff win, absolutely
Starting point is 00:13:46 deserves to be in this position. And so I start off the week. thinking it's going to be Cleveland, but now here I am making a pick. And I think if I was going to go one way in this game, I'm going with the Chiefs. How about you? Yeah, I'm definitely on the Chiefs. I think you mentioned takeaways from last week. And besides the Ravens, I was just alarmed by how wide open the Steelers' receivers were. Even before they were down, even when they were losing that, you know,
Starting point is 00:14:11 gave away 28 points at the start of the game. But, you know, what was the bad snap? And there were two deflected interceptions. But, I mean, the Steelers receivers were wide open the entire game. So I guess the Chiefs, with the week off to prepare, that's not going to work. I just think that the Chief's offense catches fire this week. And I know you mentioned they haven't really been hitting the number at all. They kind of been coasting the last two months.
Starting point is 00:14:31 But now it's probably a time they're going to get going. I think that the Browns defense just can't match up. And also, Baker Mayfield, I mean, obviously they won last week, but I'm not sure what that win said about him are than just, you know, if you're up 28-0 in the first quarter, it's a lot easier to play quarterback. But, yeah, I think it's a good spot for the Chiefs. I'm definitely not a Browns believer. I think Kevin Stefansky should have stayed in the basement, I think.
Starting point is 00:14:53 I think it's bad luck. If you win your first playoff game in 30 years, you're in the basement, why don't you come out of the basement? It's great. I bet every Browns fan in the world, right? Browns fans aren't going to be changing what they're doing. They're all going to be probably wearing what they wore last Sunday, sitting in the exact same seats,
Starting point is 00:15:09 watching with the same people, doing everything the same. And now you've got the head coach, totally throwing things out of whack, coming out of the basement, getting back on the sidelines. I mean, just not believing at all. superstition. If this were a regular season game, what would we be saying? We'd be saying prime letdown spot for the Browns. They got this huge emotional win over a division rival, a division rival that has kept them down for years and years and years. They get this big win. It was a game where they were coasting in the first half, where they took the lead
Starting point is 00:15:36 right away on the bad snap over Ben Rolpersberger's head. We would just be, I mean, that would just be, this would be the prime letdown of all letdowns now having to go on the road facing an obviously superior Kansas City team. And it feels almost like we don't want to say that because it's the playoffs and because like I said, this is the team that has won 12 games this season. The Browns are not here by some fluke. The fact that they got up 28-0 in the first quarter and the way that they did it was a little bit, I don't know, fluky's the right word, it's unlikely because of the way it happened. Snap over Rothersberger's heads, the interceptions that were just barely out of the reach.
Starting point is 00:16:09 Ben was missing high on a lot of his throws. You know, that was just, it's not something, it's not a repeatable script. And so it feels like, The Browns have put themselves in a position to be maybe a little bit more competitive in this game. We expect them to be a little bit more competitive in this game than a sober breaking down of the units on both sides would suggest it to be. I'm probably going to stay away, but I'm with you on, you know, the Chiefs having the week off, getting a little bit of rest. Andy Reid coming off a by, we know the story there, one of the best coaches in the NFL, one of the best coaches in NFL history coming off a bye. and that's exactly what we've got here for the Chiefs and the Browns. So we are both on the Chiefs feeling good about them being able to control this game against the Browns.
Starting point is 00:16:55 And if it does end up being the case, the Browns and Browns fans, no reason to hang their head. What a season it has been for this Cleveland team. And I do think that they are set up nicely for the future. But still, need a little bit better than that to be able to take down the Chiefs in Arrowhead or at least stay close with the Chiefs. Neither of us see that happening. All right.
Starting point is 00:17:13 Last game on the docket. We both like the Packers. If we are right, who are they going to face in the NFC championship game? Are they going to face the Saints or are they going to face the Buccaneers? Saints are three-point favorites against the Bucks. 52 is the over-under in this game. Most places I'm seeing it, Vic, have that minus 3 sitting at minus 120. So a little bit more juice than the standard minus 110.
Starting point is 00:17:39 So, you know, maybe it's going to be minus 3. Maybe it's going to be 3.5. Three and a half you have to imagine would come back down to the minus 1. 10. I would maybe even get it up to minus three and a half to pay the 110 because I really like the Saints here. I think the Saints minus three is my favorite bet of the week rivaling the Packers minus six and a half. But I really like the Saints here. I'm going to say one thing and then I'm going to hand it off to you. All the hooey that you hear about, oh, it's hard to beat a team three times. That's just narrative. That is nonsense. This will be the 22nd time that this has happened in NFL history. We're a team where two teams meet three times with that third meeting coming in the playoffs. The team that is two and O, going into those, that third meeting is 14 and 7. It's won two-thirds of the games. So it's not necessarily the hardest thing in the world to beat a team three times when you're the better team.
Starting point is 00:18:24 I think the Saints are. Where are you on this? Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you 100%. In fact, I look at some of the numbers on the season, and I was a little surprised. I mean, I thought this was the case, but a little surprised it was as big that the bucks are 90-0 against teams with losing records, and they're 2-5 against teams that are 500 or better.
Starting point is 00:18:44 So definitely, I think they definitely, the two losses to the Saints were not fluky at all. I think they don't do well against good teams. I think they're secondary suspect. And so, yeah, I think the Saints win pretty easily. You know, the Saints are one of the few teams in the NFL where we could say that here we are divisional round weekend, week 19 of the NFL season. And they're as healthy as they've been all year, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I mean, when you consider what Michael Thomas dealt with and, you know, Bree, obviously. I had his injury issues.
Starting point is 00:19:16 They're as healthy as they've been offensively. And I think it just comes down to them being, like I said, excuse me, like I said, with Buffalo, I just think of the better team here. And so getting them at three almost feels like a gift. It feels to me like this should be a little bit closer to where the Packers are. I don't think it should be a six and a half point spread, but I think this should be sitting at four and a half or five somewhere in that range. And so to get them at three, three and a half feels like a little bit of a gift.
Starting point is 00:19:42 and it feels like we are overrating a little bit what happened, how slow things went for them against the Bears a week ago, and you say what you will about the Bears and how deserving they were of being in the playoffs, I would say not deserving at all. That defense is still good, and that defense still comes to play every week and is basically able to execute what it wants to do.
Starting point is 00:20:03 The Bears' defense is pretty good at limiting big plays, at slowing opposing offenses down. Eventually, that offense being the better team is going to get what it needs to to win games and cover spreads, as we saw very often this season, and as we saw for the Saints a week ago. But the Bears have a way of slowing offenses down that the Bucks, I just don't think they do, even though they have a good defense, as you said, some secondary issues. And I think that's really where the Saints are going to be able to take advantage of this team,
Starting point is 00:20:31 of the Buccaneers, and take advantage of this matchup. So I really do like the Saints. Is there, pay me the picture. What happens for us to be wrong here? How does this game go in the buck's favor? I think the one thing is Tom Brady. I mean, that's the reason to spread is as low as it is because obviously people respect and fear Tom Brady.
Starting point is 00:20:49 You looked great last week. I mean, the Redskins, I'm sorry, Washington football team, doesn't get a lot of pressure on him. He had some big numbers and some nice throw. So obviously he has a resume. He has the pedigree. He never gets, he's a robot, ever gets old. So if he has a Tom Brady-like game, outplay is Drew Breaves, then, yeah, they can definitely
Starting point is 00:21:05 win this game. So I think he's definitely the X-factor. If he has, you know, if he elevates his game to, what he has done in the past Super Bowl runs, then you and I are going to be losers in this one. I hope that's not the case and no offense to Tom Brady, but I would much rather be a, he's got plenty of winning, right?
Starting point is 00:21:21 He's done plenty of winning. I would much rather, yeah. I would much rather you and I get a win in this one than Tom Brady gets to add to his playoff lore. I think this is going to be a fun game too. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we were talking about both of the first games of the days. Packers, Rams on Saturday, Chiefs Browns on Sunday being, You know, this playoff football, we're very excited.
Starting point is 00:21:41 There are eight teams left. Every game's must watch. But I wouldn't be surprised if we ultimately talked about those games as sort of snoozers as far as the playoff football pantheon goes. But I think both nightcaps, Ravens, Bills, and Saints Buccaneers are going to be fun, closely contested, well-played games where you feel like both teams have a shot almost all the way through. But I do think the Saints ultimately get this one. So let's run through really quickly. So you are on the Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, and Saints. Give me a one to four confidence ranking in those four,
Starting point is 00:22:12 with one being the most confident and four being the least. The most confident, I think, is the Chiefs. I believe that the Browns are, like you said, they're probably celebrating all week, and I think they don't match up well. And four would probably be the Packers and the Rams. It's because I was in the Rams so strongly. A week ago, I've totally changed course.
Starting point is 00:22:30 So I'm not that crazy where I'm going on about being wrong. I hope we can go. So four is my least confident. It will be the Packers. My most confident, like I said, it's between the Packers and the Saints, actually. But I'm going to go Saints, then Packers, then Chiefs, and then Bills. Again, a game where I'm mostly just playing the fact that I think the bills are the better team and a win is almost certainly going to equal a cover for them.
Starting point is 00:22:54 And really, what I'll probably end up doing in this one, Vic, as I play it, is just probably play the Chiefs down to the money line. If I'm that, I feel that good about them winning, the last thing I want to do is have them win by two and be, quote, right about them and right about them winning, but wrong on my bet because I played them at two and a half. So that's really the way I look at the bills, is not to play the two and a half, more to play the money line, and just get the win for them, get the win for me. That's a bet alteration that I'm looking at this week.
Starting point is 00:23:25 Other than that, I'm probably going to keep everything where it's at, Saints minus three, Packers minus six and a half, Chiefs minus 10. I don't really want to play around too much with any of those. I could see some money line parlay opportunities here with really all of those teams. But when we're just talking about the games individually, the one where I probably come off the line itself and just go to a money line is on the bills. Anything else you want to throw out there before we wrap up this show? Nassad you could also tease. You could tease the Chiefs and the Saints.
Starting point is 00:23:52 I thought we want to do that. I mean, teasers are not my friend, but it's one option. I had a bill's not teaser last week with the Steelers. So I was feeling great until the first quarter of that Steelers game. Oh, my God. But that's the one way to get down from that big number on the Chiefs game. Yeah, definitely, definitely. Tease the Chiefs with really almost anyone.
Starting point is 00:24:12 I mean, you know, it looks actually kind of nice is a Chiefs Packers teaser. Teasers, for those of you out there, not sure. You've got a lot of different ways. Basically, you're just lowering the spread. The standard teaser number is six points. So instead of the Packers being minus six and a half, they would be minus a half point. Or if you wanted to go the other way,
Starting point is 00:24:29 the Rams instead of being plus six and a half would be plus 12 and a half. The Chiefs would be minus four instead of minus 10. And that's a good way to do it. Actually, that's kind of a cute one now that we're talking it through here, Vic. Chiefs minus four, Packers minus a half, so Packers Money Line. That looks like an attractive teaser. And that's also the way that's a way that I like to tease is let's let's get them down basically to the money line. Let's get one game down to the Money Line.
Starting point is 00:24:50 Feel pretty good about that. Feel good again about the Packers taking care of business against the Rams. So what do we have? We have different championship games. I have chalk is chalking yet Packers v. Saints, Chiefs versus Bills. You've got Packers v. Saints. We're on that same page in the NFC, but you like a Chiefs Ravens' AFC Championship game.
Starting point is 00:25:09 Wouldn't that be fun? The AFC championship game we thought we were getting last year. The Titans blew that up. Maybe we get it this year, and then we revisit. But you're feeling good about that. After you had the Rams Super Bowl, not going that way anymore, Packers, Saints, Chiefs Ravens? Yeah, I totally backtracked me.
Starting point is 00:25:25 One week, I'm fickle. I totally chickened out the whole thing. I watched enough football where I didn't believe in my own convictions. So we'll see what happens. It's a beautiful thing about week to week gambling. You would have on the Rams last week? You thought they were going to the Super Bowl? They deliver for you last week.
Starting point is 00:25:41 And I can come off of them and go to the Packers. It's beautiful. But it's also kind of sad. I mean, they came through from me. I'm like, nah, that wasn't good enough. I'm tired of here. I'm tired of you guys. All you did was go to Seattle and take down Russell Wilson and move on.
Starting point is 00:25:54 Not impressed. Not impressed at all. Absolutely. Hey, I'm with you totally. And without a fully healthy year and Donald, I think they really do struggle against the Packers. It's going to be a lot of fun. Everything gets going on Saturday with the Packers and Rams. And we got Bill's, Chiefs, Browns, Saints, Buccaneers. Hopefully we helped steer you in the right direction on this episode of the Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast
Starting point is 00:26:16 and the Athletic Football Show. Vic and I will be back here next week to talk championship weekend. Will we be right about Packers and Saints? Will one of us be right with our AFC championship games? matchup, obviously we'll know before we all sit down and talk again, but hopefully we're at least one for one in the NFC, and then one of us gets things right in the AFC. Until then, thank you so much for listening. Have a great weekend. Good luck with all the plays that you make over the weekend. We will talk to you soon. See you later.
Starting point is 00:26:59 This was the Athletic Football Show.

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