The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Drafting the 15 best offenses in the NFL

Episode Date: August 18, 2026

Get your tickets for the live show! https://lh-st.com/shows/09-01-2026-the-athletic-football-show-with-robert-mays/Sure, we could rank the NFL's best offenses from 1 to 15 and then tell you the rankings of each host. But then we wouldn't hear Robert call himself a "spineless piece of shit," we wouldn't hear Dave talk about making an offense out of a "ham bone and a moldy shoe," and we certainly wouldn't hear Derrik agonize over picking another NFC North team. So we're doing it this way. Join Robert Mays, Dave Helman, and Derrik Klassen as they draft the NFL's best offenses for 2026.0:00 Welcome to the show3:05 Bills7:44 Cowboys13:59 Rams17:17 Patriots22:25 Lions26:31 Bears34:04 Ravens40:49 Chargers45:50 Bengals52:21 49ers56:13 Packers59:47 Jaguars1:04:07 Chiefs1:06:21 Vikings1:09:14 Broncos1:11:25 Honorable mentions1:18:37 TAFS live show!Join The Athletic Football Show Discord Server: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @RobertMaysFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We did the best defenses draft last year or last week. Our top 15, five each. We're doing the offenses today. Me, Dave and Derek, the rules I explained in the intro, same as they were for the defenses. But if you guys didn't listen to that show, they are coming soon. Really enjoyed this conversation.

Let's get to our best offenses of 2026 draft right now. We did the defenses last week. We are on to the off. offenses this week. Very excited about the offense's draft. We alluded to it a little bit, Derek, at the end of that conversation where this is going to be one where you could really plant some flags if you want to. Like, I'm very excited to see how you guys stacked up this group of offenses and how aggressive you want to be with some of these picks. I feel like for me when we were doing defenses, I got to like the fifth or six defense and then everyone after that I was like, do I really

want to put them in my like top 10 or 12? And then with the offenses, I got to like five or six. and then I had like a dozen teams where I was like, how do I make them the one that I'm putting in the top 10? It was like a completely different exercise for me. I also think that you can, with the defenses, I feel like the top four or five was pretty solidified. With the offenses, you could talk yourself into a lot of different variations. Even at the top.

Like, we'll see what happens here. I think who has the number one pick? Dave, you have the number one pick? So Dave is the number one pick. We'll see which way he goes here. I think you can make an argument for a bunch of different teams. And I think throughout this, your rationale can dictate going a whole host of different directions. And so I'm very much looking forward to this conversation.

Just a quick reminder of the rules. EPA per play is the final metric that we're going with. It is the combined EPA per play of all five teams that we are picking. We're doing 15 total teams, five each third round. We are doing a reversal of the order. So at the end of the third round, I have the third pick. I will pick twice in a row. And that's how the order will go for the final two rounds.

loser of this will buy the other two a meal at some point during the playoffs and we were all together. So the exact same situation has happened with the defenses. David, you have the number one pick here. Kick us off. What are you going with? Full government, name. That's how you know it's serious with the top 10 offenses here. I'm curious for y'all's opinion on what I'm about to do because I was very conflicted.

To y'all's point, I don't think it's as solidified at the top as it is for defense. and there's a lot of different ways you could go. And also, I set it on the defenses show. There's a tendency for me, at least. I get excited about the new pieces and the changes and planning your flag on something and being right to be excited. But I ultimately sat with it for a few hours

and I decided I just want to go steady Eddie and I just don't want this pick to weigh around my neck like an anchor. And that's really all I'm trying to avoid here. And so after looking at it, I was a little surprised to realize that I'm going to take the Buffalo Bills at number one overall. I'm not surprised by this at all. I would have done the exact same thing. Interesting.

That is not what I thought steady Eddie meant. I thought it was going to be, you know, we'll get to them. Here's what I mean by Teddy Eddie. I just think the floor is lower with the Rams. I just think the floor is lower. If you want to go with something, you look at it, the bill, Derek, what do you think the bill's lowest finishes in EPA per play on offense since 2020? I mean, we talked about this on a different show.

It's like fourth or fifth. Like it's like they were. They haven't finished lower than eighth any year since 2020. Robert took the words right out of my notes. And the other note I would say they're the only offense in the league that has finished top five the last four years. That that eighth finish in 2021 is their only finish outside the top five since COVID. They just, they're always good.

And it's, it's not that sexy. I don't know if DJ Moore at this point in his career is like a, franchise changing addition. And I know that there's a little bit more turnover on the offensive line this year. Just I think it's gone under notice that Aaron Cromer retired, by the way, in addition to David Edwards leaving in free agency. So there's a little bit more volatility there than in years past. But this is still a very deep, very veteran unit. And Josh Allen is their quarterback.

And I just, I don't think I will regret this, even if they're not the best offense in football. they'll be a top five or six offense and I'm just not going to have to worry about it. This is where I would have went as well for that exact same reason. I think beyond the Stafford question, right? I mean, I understand that Stafford stayed healthy last year, but all the same things about his health and his age. That's all still real. That didn't just go away because he made it unscathed through the season.

And I'd be looking at the Rams tackle situation. And I think I would be a little bit, I'd be sweating that a little bit. The Bill's swing tackle situation isn't as good. as it's been over the last few years. Like their depth there is a little bit worse. Jude Bowery is like slated to be their swing tackle, the guy they drafted it in the fourth round this year. Ryan Vandemark is gone.

Obviously, All right Anderson's going to be sliding in for David Edwards. And so there are a couple things that I think do make the floor a tiny bit lower. I just think that the big strong ox quarterback and his unwillingness to ever get hurt is something that I think I would be betting on. Yeah, this also when you frame it that way, this is also like if I'm going to lose, how do I want to lose? And it's like you don't really feel bad about picking Josh Allen.

Like there's really no like you're not going to, if that's how you go down, you're not really going to feel bad about that. And they could easily finish number one. Yeah, and they could still be number one. It's not like they have a low ceiling. They were in the lead offense last year without any wide receiver that you're scared of. And DJ Moore is not perfect, but I think he's going to be like at least a full tier better than anybody that they had last year.

And so I'm, I think, I think in my mind I was dead set. the Rams were just going to go number one because they did like they obviously what they did last year but the bills being what they have been for such a long time and pretty obviously getting the best wide receiver that they've had since Stefan Diggs. It makes more sense now that I listen to it. I did 30 minutes of prep on the Rams thinking that I would take them number one and somewhere around minute 20 I was like hang on. Am I confident that the Stafford's just going to do this again and am I confident in the offensive line? I mean we can talk about the Rams because they're going to go soon. But after like 20 minutes, I was like, wait, there's no, I think I trust the bills

more. And I, it kind of surprised me, which is dumb, by the way, because they were the number two offense last year. They're incredible, but they're just kind of always there. And that's, I mean, that's a good thing, but it's easy to overlook the team that you can count on. And that's exactly why I'm taking them here. I don't think you can win this draft with your first pick, but I think you can lose it. And I think that's why I probably would have gone the exact same direction, simply because I would feel rock solid and the bills being a top five offense again, even if maybe the Rams have slightly higher highs. All right, Derek, you're up.

I assume we know where you're going here. I don't know. I think I'm just going to stick with my board and assume that the Rams were going to be off the board. No, you shouldn't. You shouldn't. You shouldn't. You should go with another team. No, it's too bad.

I'm actually going to take, so I'm going to lay out my board here a little bit. I think that there are two teams in the NFL where I'm positive. they have a top 10 quarterback. The play calling situation is an added bonus. I think the offensive line is good. And the skill players, even if maybe not perfect, have some sort of obvious trump card. One of them is the Rams.

The other one to me is the Dallas Cowboys. And I think that that's who I'm going to take with my second. Wow. Two overall. I think the Dallas Cowboys offense. I was going to take them at three. I think the Cowboys offense is like to me, them being a top 10 unit at all last year with such a young offensive line, a completely new play

calling staff, and a defense that was constantly griefing them. Like bad field positions, down like multiple scores in the first half early. Like they were not really allowed to play the kind of football that they wanted for a lot of the season. And even despite all of that, they had the lowest three in punt percentage in the entire NFL. Like they just did not go three and out very often. They were able to control the ball despite how bad some of these situations. are, and they were still an above average explosive play rate team. Like the fact that they can control the ball, they are explosive. I think the second year in the system is going to do wonders for a lot of these guys, especially the offensive line. And the quarterback and those two receivers,

like, if they play 15 games together, like they very well could be the best offense in the NFL. And so I think that there's a chance that, you know, maybe the offensive line doesn't take the step that we quite want. And maybe they're not like a true kick your ass sort of offense. But anytime DAC is on the field, this is the top eight offense. And so if he plays, I think that they're going to be that. You're going to get no pushback here. I would have run to take them at three. That's who I assumed I was going to pick because I thought the Rams and Billis would go one and two.

You look at it last year. They finished fifth and EPA per play last season. And it's year one with a new staff. You have offensive line, even with beyond quality concerns, just the rotating door that they had at some of these spots. Cooper Bibi missed six games last year, Tyler Guyton missed seven games last year. And I know people have been down on Guyton relatively,

and I understand that. He hadn't really had like a normal offseason. Like he got hurt last year coming into the year. And so he didn't have training camp. He didn't have a lot of time to practice in that system. And coming into this year, they had an open battle at left tackle. And Dave, I'm sure you've been attuned to this.

He just won it. From like the first week, it was just like, I'm the starting left tackle. Like three days in the camp, Brian Schottenheimer was like, yeah, I think Guyton's doing just fine. Like, we don't need to worry. That is the best possible outcome if you are this staff trying to lock down that spot.

Even if you can just get him to a level where you don't think about him, I think that's really good. Like, he has not been great, but he also just hasn't been on the field very much. I mean, he has like 21 career starts. And I think that the talent is still there. It's just a matter of consistency. And so I'm with you on this. I think that there's a lot to like.

They could easily be the best offense in the league. And so I don't blame you for doing this at all. My only thing, well, first of all, I thought there was an outside chance I could get the Cowboys at four. So I'm just, and clearly I had no shot. Clearly, that was never going to happen between the two of the year. That was never going to happen. I wanted to talk briefly. And this is just, this is a dumb little thing.

And obviously, this offense is DAC and the receivers. And that's how they're going to go. And that's why they're going to be successful. But I'm curious if they have any kind of switch up in mind with their tight ends. One thing, I don't think we talked about this coming out of the preseason game, Robert, but Brevin Spanford looks like he might take the number two tight-in job. And this is a team, I mean, they were top five and 11 personnel usage. They didn't do a ton of extra tight-in stuff.

But I just wonder if there's any kind of pivot there coming with how much we talk about tight ends and getting those guys out on the field and whether Clayton Adams wants to mix it up even a little bit. I mean, like I said, don't overthink it when you have C.D. Lamb and George pickens but it's just something I've had my eye on here over the last little bit. I think for me it's like when when Dak is in 11 and just doing all his stuff, that is I think the best version of him. But I think I'm in a spot where I think this offense can be very multiple, which is why I believe in them. Like Ryan Fleurneux as a third receiver is good. If Spanford and Ferguson are out there as your two tight ends, if you want to do some 12 stuff, I think that can be pretty good because

Spanford is a pretty credible blocker. Hunter Leapke, I think, is a really good fullback and like a good athlete. And so he's, I think, a guy that you can do a lot of stuff with. And so I think they were up and down and how good some of that stuff was last year for them. But again, I think a second year in the system, I think you just have so many different ways to win that even if I don't think they'll major in 12 or 21, the way that some other teams around the league are, I do think it will be a pretty credible change up for them being a firework show whenever they're in 11. Why I think it's important. It's so funny how many similarities there are between the Bengals and the Cowboys. There's so many similarities between these two teams. And I think it's the same

reason the Bengals have to live in a lot of 12 personnel is that when you have those two receivers, you're not asking CD Lamb to dig out a safety, like just not something that's going to happen. And so having two tight ends on the field and what that goes for your run game and for Dallas specifically, they were way more of an under center play action team last year than they had been before the new staff got there. They were really a spread out shotgun static team. And so I think leaning into some more of the 12 stuff, just for the sake of the same, The run game is important because this team's run game.

They were 10th and rushing success right over the first half of the season, Dallas was last year. And in the back half, it fell to just about average. And sometimes we see this with first year staffs. And it's been an interesting thing to dig into with people this summer as I visited teams. Just like, what happened in the second half the season run game-wise? And I think it's a your weaknesses start to creep up over the course of the year. And sometimes as a first-year staff, you don't have the nimbleness to plug and fix those weaknesses in real time. like that's something where you actually have to take a step back after the season and be like all right let's pour all this stuff out on the table what do we need to tweak run game wise to get where we want to go i think what ben jonson did in real time last year is very hard to do as a first year staff and so i think with clayton adams with the fact that they have a quality offensive line or good enough offensive line plus being able to tap into some of that two tight end stuff the 21 personnel stuff i think that run game has a chance to be even better and even more consistent than it was for a good enough.

chunks of last year, in part because of the personnel diversity stuff we're talking about here. All right. I'm going to take the Rams at three. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, sure. I'm good. I should have taken them at two, but, you know.

Yeah, I'm going to take the best offense in the league from last year. The team that's projected to score the most points, probably the best play caller in the league, one of the top three receivers in the league. I didn't look up that many numbers on the Rams because I just didn't think I would take. would get them. One of the numbers that I thought was very funny, just like little things we've often, I've often said this where I think that screen health, screen game health can be a reflection of an offense's overall quality because it's so detail-based. The Rams had a 60.5% success rate on screens last year. That's pretty good. It was the best best in the league by five

percentage points. Like they just do pretty much everything well. And the fact that they've added layers to this thing and, you know, you have guys that even if the. skill position talent is the same. I think you have players that you can turn up the volume on a little bit. Blake Corum, I think is going to be a bigger part of what they do this year. I think there are layers they're trying to add in the run game in order to be a little bit more explosive there. You saw that last year when this used to be like a mid-zone duo team and they started

adding a couple, can we run a little bit more counter? Can we get a little bit more outside zone? Can we start sprinkling some stuff in that can give us more gashes in the run game? And you combine that with just everything that they're able to do out of the 13. personnel stuff. Stafford playing the best football he's ever played. Puka leveling up his game again last season and some of the man coverage stuff and outside the number stuff that we've talked about. I thought they'd go number one. So I will gladly take them here at number three. If it was just Stafford staying healthy, I think I would have taken him number one. But it's Stafford staying healthy.

The offensive line depth worries me. Also, Alarick Jackson could potentially be facing NFL discipline. We don't know that for sure. Pooka Nakua, by the way, Adam Schefter said within the last week that he could still be facing NFL discipline for the biting incident. He also just can't stay off of podcasts.

And so never good. I can't believe he did another one. I can't believe he did another one. I thought that clip when he was up on stage doing that show was from like months ago. I cannot believe that like just happened. I'm sure Sean McVeigh said the same thing when it hit his desk.

But all that stuff combined, I was just like, you know what? They're going to be awesome, I'm sure, but Buffalo is safer and won't keep me awake at night. And that's what I landed on. But obviously, the Rams are incredible. I think I would have done the same thing. But again, I'm more than happy to get them here

where I'm getting them. All right, Dave, you're up at four. What do you got for me? I consider this a coup for myself. And look, I mean, y'all are just taking the Cowboys stuff right away from me. Like, and that's fine. Y'all can be high on the Cowboys.

I was a little bit surprised, though. You both said you would take them over a team that I'm elated to get at number four. Because the number two offense in the league by EPA per play last year added A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs. I feel like I've been saying this every single week. And I'm just going to keep doing it. I'm taking the Patriots at four. And I feel great about it.

Yeah, I think that this is also. Your offensive firepower with a quarterback like Drake May, I just, I have no doubt at all that this is going to work. None whatsoever. I mean, I don't either. He's already incredible. And he's like, I'm with you on the AJ Brown. Like, I think there's totally validity to like, does he still have it in the way that like A.J. Brown is like shifting how the Eagles can be the best offense in the league.

Maybe not. He's a little bit older, you know, maybe banged up a little bit. I think it's more likely than not he can be like 95% of that. least and just be an absolute menace. I also do think the offensive line, while imperfect, is probably a little better than it gets credit for and actually does have depth now that Lomu is there. He didn't look perfect in his first preseason game, but you at options, which I think is nice for you. So I'm pretty bought in on like, again, Henderson is going to take another step potentially. They have depth at receiver in a way that they didn't last year. They have so many different

flavors at receiver now that I think is enjoyable. And like, Drake May getting another year in the system in an offense that puts a lot on the quarterback mentally that I think can help them take a second step like you're just you're not going to get a lot of pushback from me on this one you guys were always going to take the Patriots quicker than I would take the Patriots and so this is they were never even on my radar where did you have them I probably would have taken them I'm picking at the 9 10 turn if they were around at 9 or 10 I would have considered them there they would have been gone before that I would have them at like 5th or 6th yeah I just have other teams.

I think I'd rather pick them the Patriots. I've already laid all this stuff out. I know you have. The offensive line stuff worries me a little bit. They did not run the ball efficiently last year. It's just a little tiny. Like, this team had a 48% completion rate last year on contested catches. No one in the league was above like 40%.

Well, I just think that Romio Dobbs and AJ Brown. The point is I don't think you're getting better at that stuff than you were last year. I just think that there was some volatility things. that went their way last season playing against a really bad schedule. And so I wonder that second an EPA per play, like, how real is that? Like, if we're trying to contextualize what they were last year, we don't need to rehash all of this. We've already talked about like three times over the last two weeks. I just have more reservations on what this thing is built on than you guys do.

And I think at its core, that is a lot to do with the offensive line. I don't think Derek is wrong. I think they're probably fine. I just think that there are, there's, something about it that is just sticking in the back of my mind that gives me a little bit more pause than you guys have. And again, I don't think they'll be bad. I just don't think I would take them in the top five of an exercise like this while you guys would. And so I just, they didn't even cross my mind because I knew I would never pick them. I just, I don't think you can be second

in the league over the course of 17 weeks purely off schedule fraudulence. I just don't believe that about NFL people. It's not purely off that. Of course not. The quarterback played extremely well last year. a really good player. I don't think it's completely off that. But I think will we be willing to say in terms of actual quality, they were probably closer to eighth or ninth last year? Yeah, sure.

But they added Romeo Dobs and AJ Brown. And I just, I think that's going to count for a lot. I really do. Like, among wide receivers with 30 plus catches, these guys were both top 30 in, I mean, like, they were top 30 in air yards per target. They were both very good in yards per route run. Like, they're

just, they're outright. better receivers. And to your credit, Robert, I went back and looked like Stefan Diggs was better last year than I probably gave him credit for. His per route metrics are insane from last season. They're so good. He was incredibly efficient. But I still, these guys are going to be better downfield targets than Stefan Diggs was

at that point in his career. And when you have a quarterback like Drake May, I think that counts for a lot. And so I will now conclude Dave's weekly Patriots propaganda. And I will, and I will conclude my name. weekly doubting session by saying there is absolutely a chance that I'm just very wrong about this and just I'm misreading. Again, I don't think they'll be bad. I just don't think I'm quite as excited about them as you guys are.

And that's why I just, again, I was never going to get them. I didn't even think about them. I think we're talking about the same like spectrum of outcomes. I think Dave and I are just closer to like it's 80% likely that they're towards the top. And you're more like, I don't know, 50-50. Like it could be a coin flip. But I think the spectrum of outcomes that we're talking about. talking about is the exact same.

If they finished third in EPA per play or second, if they finished in the top three, I'm not going to be like, oh man, I can't believe that happened. I just think that I'm less willing to take it to the bank right now than you guys are. And it's because the line concerns me,

the run game stuff concerns me a little bit, and I cannot eject what the playoffs felt like from my mind as I think about this team. All right, Derek, you're up at five here. All right. I would have considered the Patriots here. I think I'm going to go,

I think I'm going to go with the Detroit lines. I just like, the last year was their worst year that they've ever had really under the Dan Campbell era outside of the first year, really. And they were still like the eighth best offense in the league. They finished sixth, the DPA for play last season. They were awesome. They just were like not as efficient down to down as you want,

but they were still incredibly explosive. And to me, when you bring in Drew Petzing, you get another year with these young guards. Hopefully Blake Miller is, is at least like a push on what Taylor Decker was giving you last year. Maybe he can be a little bit better. I do think he's like an incredible athlete. And like their amount of skill talent they have is the best in the league.

Like it's they just, they can beat you in every single kind of way. And all of those skill players have really only gotten better every single season. Like James and Williams has added stuff to his game every year. Gibbs has added stuff to his game every year. I think Leportas, you know, he's had some injuries that have banged him up and down. But I think if he's healthy this year, he'll be incredible. like Amonraa St. Brown has gotten more, he's gotten better and more diverse as he's gotten older.

Like everyone gets better. And I just have fate that Drew Petzing is at least a tier above, like what they were getting last year in terms of the play calling. I think he's even better than that. But if he's even just one tier above that, this offense goes right back to being like the fifth best in the league. Like I just, I feel like the floor is only so low with what we've seen from this unit.

They were fifth on my board. I'm 100% with you here. I think everything that you said is right. Also, you did not say his name. Jared Goff is good at playing quarterback in the NFL. He is a very good NFL quarterback who is very capable of being the quarterback for top five offenses. Like, he just does this all the time. And so I think you combine that with an improved offensive line.

Even with the center concerns, it's worth mentioning, right? I mean, I think that part of the argument and part of the reason you could get super excited about this team a month ago is that you mentioned it, Derek. They finished 20th at the rushing success rate last year. it just was not nearly as consistent down to doubt. And so dropping a guy that plays with Cade Mays' power into the middle of that offense, combined with getting a new right tackle, you hope the young guards can take a small step forward.

You know, you're swapping out essentially, Taylor Decker for Pene Soule, right, in terms of like the pop you're getting in the run game. And but now you remove Cade Maze from that equation, I still think it's overall going to be an improvement, but maybe not quite to the level that you had hoped. And then you're combining that with the explosiveness. they were firmly in the top five for me.

And so I totally understand going this way. I had him sixth. And I wanted to bring a, I'm glad you brought up Drew Petzing, Derek, because I was thinking about it when I was putting this together. And I honestly had a moment where I was like, do I believe wholeheartedly in Drew Petting?

Because after Clayton Adams went to Dallas, the Cardinals offense did not impress me in 25 as much as it did in 24. But then I thought about it. And I was like, well, they fired John Morton. week 10 last year and still finished sixth and EPA per play. So like the same thing about the offensive line, the offensive coordinator.

I'm just like, I kind of think they might not reach the highs that they have in previous years. But yeah, I just think the ceiling or excuse me, the floor is really, really high with this team. I had them sixth. So I'm right there with you all. They remade parts of the staff too. I mean, like Mike Kafka's there now.

I mean, so it's and you, last year they didn't just lose, they didn't just lose Ben Johnson. They lost Antoine, Randwell. They lost Tanner Angstrand as their past game coordinator. Like having Kafka come in is kind of the dropback guy plus petzing. You still have Hank Freely there. And Dan Campbell has a role in how the offense is built.

Like I just think that both the floor and the ceiling for this team are extremely high. Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up though. Dave, like Drew Petzing doesn't have to be like a game changer for this to be like the skill players and the quarterback give you so much that the offensive line and play caller really only have to level up so much for this to be in elite offense again. I'm fine with the lions going at five. I had them at five. The team I had at four.

And the team I really was hoping I could get here at six. I'm riding the dragon. Chicago Bears. That was the only other team I was debating here. That high. I almost took him here. Yeah. The floor is lower than it is with some of the other teams that we've talked about.

fully willing to acknowledge that. You've only seen it for a year, I think that in terms of consistent quarterback quality, the guy that is the quarterback of the Bears is not nearly in the same conversation as the five quarterbacks we've just talked about in terms of doing it year after year, being the quarterback of the lead offense.

I just, I'm chasing the upside. Like, I truly think in year two of this thing, with the skill position talent that they have, you know, if they get, tripillo back at some point the left tackle spot feels a little more solidified or Garrett Bradbury can give you 70% on what Dalman gave you last year

I just think there is a chance they have like a new clear potential I really do and I we've talked a lot about the quarterback we spent half an hour talking about him this summer and I was very adamant and that I think he needs to be better for this team to become the sort of offense

that Ben Johnson has been very open about wanting to be right like the heights that he wants to reach. But I also think the quarterback can do that. Like, I do think that there is a chance that that refinement and that maturation, that step can happen. And if it does, like, Loveland is, I think, already on his way to being a superstar. I think the other two receivers are more than good enough.

This was the best from week five on last season. The Bears were fourth and explosive play rate, fourth in EPA per play, seventh in offensive success rate, first in EPA per carry, and first in rushing success rate. The gap between them and the next best team in rushing success rate was the same as the gap between the team at two and the team at 16 per next gen. They were insane. They were already good.

And I think where I've gotten to is like I think why I was willing to almost pick them at this high as well. It's like I've gotten to like, okay, I was worried about the Dalman thing and I'm a little bit worried about left tackle. And I love these skill players, but you still kind of need to see them do it outside of Loveland. I think Loveland is just a monster. But I think with the receivers, you kind of want to see them actually level up before you fully buy into it.

I think I'm just there with the quarterback, though, man. Like the play caller, we know he's special. The quarterback has the talent to be special. And I think we saw enough growth from him that I'm like, if he does it again, it's whatever you're getting out of, you know, a slightly diminished run game because of Bradbury and stuff, what you're going to get out of this quarterback and if burden takes a little bit of a step. If Rome is healthy, if Loveland takes a step, it's like they just might be able to throw 400 yards. game if they really want to. The bears make me so nervous. And I want to stay at my barrenfides.

Well, yeah, look who I'm talking to. I believe in the quarterback and I believe even more in Ben Johnson. So to some degree, I feel silly for doubting them. But going like touching on what both of y'all brought up, A, the offensive line starts to worry me at a certain point. And it's, it's great to hear that Ozzie Tripillo has already been activated. I don't know what's going on. on this year, but guys just being ready.

It's unbelievable. But that would make me feel a little bit better. But I mean, we talked about it in the players that could swing the season episode, Bradbury and the left tackle. And it starts to feel wish-casty to me at a certain point that the offensive line is going to be as good as last year. And then, look, I picked, I picked Luther Burden as like one of my breakout guys. And we all think the world of Colston Loveland, to Derek's point, you're talking about guys that have played like 12 good games of football and for burden even less than that and i get i just get nervous to a certain point of just being like they were good in december of their rookie year and so now we're going to the

moon and it's just all clear skies and smooth sailing from here and everything's going to be gravy i mean burton's already dealing with a groin injury hopefully that doesn't hinder him too much but i've seen this shit before where like you i just i get nervous just assuming upward linear growth especially considering how phenomenal they were to just cannonball in and say that they're going to exponentially get better right away in year two. It's totally possible. And if somebody's going to do it, it's probably Ben Johnson, but it just makes me a little nervous. I had them, I had them more in like the nine, 10 range for me personally, but I get it. That the Ben Johnson part of it is what ultimately

allows me to do this. Because I think in other situations, talking about the personnel, the way you're talking about it, I would have the same reservations. I kind of do have some of the same reservations. Like there's absolutely more projection involved with this than any of the five teams that went before them. But I just think, I believe in the guy running it. Like, I just believe that it is going to come together. Maybe not to the best possible extent.

But I have a lot of inherent faith in him being one of those dudes, like, period. And combined, if that was it, fine, that's not enough. But I do think that there is a level of like smoldering talent here. that if he can get the most out of it, we get to a place where can this be the best offense in the league? Can it be the second best offense in the league? Maybe that's a little fast, but I don't think it's crazy. Like, I do think that there is some,

there is an underlying level of just explosive ability across this entire thing, that if they can channel it a little bit, Dave, going back to that, Caleb is Cyclops without the visor thing. Again, if they can put the visor on, Like what can this thing look like? And I do think that in year two of this, based on everything that's been said,

I was there last week just talking about how much more comfortable and confident in command he feels. They don't feel like they're drowning anymore. Like at this point last year, I think that they truly were just trying to keep their heads above water. And it really does sound like everybody across the board is in a place where it's like, now we have a firm grasp on this now. And I just think that set of dynamic. with the talent that they have, I think the ceiling is incredibly high,

even if the floor is a little bit lower than a lot of the other teams that we're talking about. Probably underrating what another step forward would mean for Caleb Williams. And I think he's capable of that. So that won me over a little bit thinking about that. That is necessary, right? In order to justify this, that is necessary. But I do think it's possible.

Everything I just said about them being a top five offense in the back half of last year happened when, he was still a very flawed player. And so if you smooth over even some of those flaws, there is just something waiting on the other side that I feel like is really, really exciting. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back with pick number seven.

All right, Dave, you're up. Pick number seven, who are you going with? This is really great because Mays gave into his inner demons with the Bears pick and just leaned into it and I appreciate that. And now I'll just do my best Robert May's impression and assign the ultimate belief in a certain organization that was frustrating last year,

but I believe in bouncing back this year. I'm taking the Ravens at 7. Oh, okay. I am taking the Baltimore Ravens at 7, and we've talked about it several times this off season. They were so frustrating and so up and down, and they pissed us off. That version of the Ravens with banged up Lamar,

pissing us off every other week, finished 15th in EPA per play and 11th in offensive DVOA. Like that's what it looks like when the Ravens are frustratingly inconsistent. And so if that's like as bad as it can get, then what,

I mean, we know what it looks like when it's good and the Ravens, to borrow from Mays again, the Ravens went and they're trying to get them some Ben Johnson Magic Fairy Dust with Declan Doyle. I think that can work. And then the investment on the interior of this offensive line.

I don't think we hit this in the preseason episode either, Robert, just because there's so much to get to. But I liked what I saw from Vanga Yuanay in preseason game number one. He looked like a big, mean guy who puts the clamps on you. And I loved it. That's what you want. So, I mean, upgrading the interior of the offensive line with some good, inspiring play calling,

I didn't need Jacoby Lane to have a training camp of his dreams to feel good about this. but but it certainly, it doesn't hurt, you know. And so plugging Lamar into a much more functional situation, if he's healthy, get the running game going. I just, yeah,

last year was like the floor. And if it's remotely good, then this should be like a top 10, top 12 sort of offense. Even if you didn't need Jacoby Lane, just having like a little depth of receiver rather than trying to reanimate Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins, I feel like I'm a little bit more excited about that.

And overall, I'm with you. I'm like several different fronts. So last season, even with all of the concerns about the offensive line quality, the interior offensive line quality, the Ravens finished fourth and EPA per carry on running back runs last year. Yeah. They were still as explosive as anybody. The success rate was way down.

They were not nearly as consistent, but they were still really explosive on the ground. And so now you go remake the interior. I think you can similar to other stuff we've talked about. You know, you have John Simpson and Yawanna now. Can you get by with Pinter? We'll see what happens with POSage if that ends up being, you know, who ends up starting. I think they can cobble that together.

You have two solid tackles in Rosen Guard and Ronnie Stanley. It's not an elite offensive line, but it's good enough combined with what the run game probably looks like with Derek Henry still. So you're a fourth in EPA per carry-on running back runs. The stat I was curious about because they're going to do a lot more of this this year. Lamar since 2023 has averaged 0.4. EPA per dropback on undercenter play action plays. He rocks at it. They just haven't done it a ton.

But he's so, so good at it. Because honestly, and it makes sense because if you think about it, so many under center passing plays happen to be like intermediate, like middle of the field type of area. When he was coming out of college and when he was, yeah, when he was coming out of college and winning MVP's and stuff, that was always what he was great at, was throwing that area. And him turning his back doesn't freak him out. If you're booting him, he's obviously like the best athlete on the.

field. Like, even though he hasn't done it a lot, I just have so much inherent. Like, I would have picked him here. If I had the pick here, I was going to pick them at seven. Like, I'm, I'm full steam ahead on this offense. I just wasn't sure how you guys were going to feel about them. Again, picking at 9, 10, I was kind of hoping I could get them there because I wasn't sure how much collective enthusiasm there would be. I thought I might be able to leave this exercise with them, but I don't blame you for doing this at 7 at all, Dave. I, similar, I mean, obviously, they were nowhere near as good as the bills last year. But I think there's a similar tendency to look for the new and fresh.

And then my eye draws me back to the quarterback who's usually among the best in the NFL. And I think they did a good job of upgrading or at least maybe not even upgrading. Because like Todd Munkin did a fantastic job for them in the time that he was there for them, like all things considered. But like just either upgrading or maintaining. And yeah, like Tyler Linderbaum's a hell of a player. but the totality of what they did on the interior offsets that. And I just, I think in general, it's in a healthy overall place. And the depth with the pass catchers looks good.

The running game really didn't need a ton of help to begin with. And yeah, I just, even if it's kind of boring, I have the absolute faith that they'll be back where they usually are. Can I play devil's advocate in a way I don't really believe, but feel like I, I, somebody should probably raise their hand. What if Declan Doyle isn't good? Yeah, of course. Of course.

Maybe he's not. I don't know. I mean, he might not be. I think at least with them, if the offensive line gets to a certain spot, it's almost like, you know, there's, I forget who puts these charts out. But like anytime Sean McVeigh's offensive line can protect the quarterback, they're like the best offensive football, anytime Lamar Jackson is protected to a decent degree, he's the best quarterback in football. And so I just like, if they can get there, even if Declan Doyle is not great, I feel like it'll probably be fine. He will be good. actually really excited to watch him, but I just, I think that we have like a 31 year old first time

offensive coordinator. I feel like somebody should raise their hand and just say maybe this won't work out. I think the fact, though, that so many of the players are like, dude, he's like, Rashad Bateman being like, dude, I'm getting to do stuff. I've never gotten able to do. Just like, it seems like they are very enthusiastic about where the offense is going. And I'm sure that's some amount of like, you know, players are saying nice stuff about their coaches. But I just believe it with this, with this team and with this staff for some reason. He's got the, a seal of approval from Sean Payton and Ben Johnson. And short of seeing him actually do the job, that's enough for me to feel confident that he knows what he's doing. Of course, that could age

terribly, but I don't have a problem believing it right now. I also think he's wired the right way. I think him and Ben Johnson are caught from the same cloth, just in terms of like personality, how they think about the game, how they think about operational stuff. Like I'm very excited to see what Declan Doyle can do with this opportunity. All right. So that's seven. Derek, you are up at eight there's a fascinating collection options for you here. This is not good. The Ravens not being here is truly tough for you because all of the teams that you might pick here, I think you're going to feel disgusted that you have to pick any of them.

Yes. And like I actually had a lot of these teams like tiered with the Ravens, but there was, there's something about like the Lamar, Derek Henry. Like I've seen this factor that I was just like, I could ride with that if that's how this goes. With all the other teams, I'm like, man, you're making some sort of. bet like they've got to take a leap or they've got to stay healthy or whatever it's going to be man i think i think i'm going to take the los angeles chargers i think this is where i'm wondering

when that was going to happen yeah i i think we've gotten a little bit over our skis about them being like they can be the best offensive football but we're taking them here at eight and i think that that is like more than reasonable that they can get there i had them at seven yeah so i don't i think this is totally reasonable i was wondering if they would go even higher than this so i get it because the other teams and i have the next two picks so i can just spout off who the Bengals, the Jags, like, their teams here. And you specifically, I don't think could bring yourself to pick either of them because of, like, your personal tastes. Yeah, the Bengals screwed me last year with the wind spool.

So I'm a little bit burned by them. Even if I think, like, it's probably more likely that the Bengals are like a better offensive, everybody's healthy. And then the Jaguars, I'm just like, I don't want to get overly invested, like, emotionally in the Trevor Lawrence. them being elite thing so I'm just going to push that to the side. You want to be free to be to ride that roller coaster without entanglements. Correct. Correct. And I think just of this group, even if there's some flaws with offensive line or skill players with a lot of the teams in this group, I was just like, okay, I think the play caller is a machine. And I think the quarterback is like football God in terms of

how he's built and how he can throw. I just, I trust even if the other stuff isn't perfect that they can get it where it needs to be. This is the only team that you has been picked so far. And I would honestly think maybe that's going to be picked in the entire top 15 that we're going with here. That just feels like a total mystery box though. Oh, 100%. They could lose me the draft. They could lose me the draft.

Like if the offensive line is just not good. They could win it for you though. If you're getting them at seven and they're the best off, like the second best offense in the league, they could win it for you too. But even the Ravens, like the Ravens have a new play caller, but I still feel like we're going to be playing in a similar enough sandbox with similar players that we have a slight understanding of like what the Ravens are. The Chargers are like, we're going to open that thing up on week one and untie that president. We're going to get what we get. And honestly, here's what really got me there. I know that we know that Mike McDaniel is great and I don't think anybody needs to like relitigate that.

But a stat that I pulled for all offenses from week six and on, which I think by then teams know who they are. Like you kind of have figured out who you're supposed to be. From week six and on, offenses that had an above average explosive play rate, but a below average like three and out rate. It was the Rams, the Lions, the Patriots,

the Bills, the Bears, the Jags and the Packers. One that was really close was the Miami Dolphins. They like just fell below the below, like not being good enough for the three and out rate, but they were obviously incredibly explosive. The fact that they got there with what the dolphins were last year,

I'm like, dude, could do anything, I'm pretty sure. I obviously we don't know if they'll achieve the highs that you daydream about, like a top three offense, but I think I'd be pretty surprised if they're just bad. Me too. I don't think I agree that they'll lose you this draft.

Like I just, maybe they won't be a top three offense, but they certainly will be a top half of the league offense. Am I just in a bubble if I believe that pretty firmly? Do I need to touch me that? top half of the league offense last year, weren't they? Yeah, like, as the walls were falling down. I think they were early on and then again, like, everything kind of fell apart for them.

They finished 23rd. They finished 23rd in EPA per play last year. But so here's my thing. Denver finished in DVOA 15th last year. I would be shocked if they're a worse offense than that. Like, I just think the play caller and the quarterback are too good for that. And if the offensive line is, I mean, the issue two was like, one, they fixed the interior, but also they just didn't have their two best offensive line.

at all last year. Like, I just, it's easy to sell the story that they can be better. But you're a little worried that Rishon Slater is not currently practicing. Slater, yes, but honestly, the offense was still really good even when it was just Joe Alt out there. So I'm like, if we can keep one out there, we'll be okay. We're five minutes into this pick and Derek is already immensely coping. I'm ready.

I'm ready. I'm really freaking out. It's fine because they were fine without him last year. The only thing gives me pause about this is just it, it's the Chargers. And that's like totally vibes based. but I mean, it's real. It scares the shit out of me. It's, but I have to get myself over it because I've made this pick.

Every time we've done It's the Chargers recently, it's been like Joe Lombardi-Colm plays or Greg Roman is the offensive play. It's Mike McDaniel now. I'm like, I have enough fate that he overrides Chargersness, that he will be okay. I have them in the same range of you. I think the two most fun picks in this draft were the Bears and the Chargers. I think those are the two biggest, like, where you could land on

either end of the spectrum, I agree. All right. So I'm up here with 9 and 10 here at the 3-4 turn. At 9, I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah. Okay. I mean, it's depressing, but not unexpected. If they didn't screw me in the wind's pool last year, I probably would have taken them here.

It feels like the floor is lower. I think it just in part because we've seen the quarterback get hurt. We've seen them kind of fall off because of that. I think there's probably a little bit more volatility here just because he has missed so many games over the last few years. But when those guys were all on the field together, when Burrow and Higgins were on the field together last year, the Bengals average 0.18 EPA per play.

Yeah, they were like a top five offense. Though easily would have been the best offense in the league at 0.18 when both of those guys were on the field. That's, they have to be on the field in order for you to enjoy that, but it easily would have been the best offense in the league. And so I think that you have the continuity with that entire group coming back. I'm a little bit worried about the Orlando Brown part of this. I'm a tiny bit worried about that,

but I think the offensive line elsewhere has gotten good enough that I feel decent about that group overall. This team was number two in the league in rushing success rate after week five last year. I think that the under center pivot, there's a chance that some growing pains happen early in the season, but I understand exactly why they're doing it and what the potential benefits of it might look like.

We've talked about this. So they were 29th and explosive run rate from the gun last year. They were fourth an explosive run rate from under center. and so if they can just be a little bit more explosive and I think that a lot of people have been taking the under center pivot solely as a way it means to be more explosive on the ground when Burrow was in the game last year

the Bengals were 20th an explosive pass rate 20th and so I do think that this is also a pathway to them being more explosive through the air and again you're bringing back all the same guys adding Eric all back into the mix and just what he gives you it's very similar to the conversation we had about the Cowboys we're having that other blocking tight end that you can involve and just the layers and the variety provides you in the

run game. So and also just on a very, on a simpler level, I think he's the best quarterback left. So I might, I'm just going to go with the best quarterback left here at number nine. I think feel pretty good about it. The Bengals have been, they've finished sixth and EPA per play the last two times Joe has been available for a full season. I don't really think you have to think that much harder about it. And what sucks is you get at this point, you can't say you can count.

on that. But I don't know. What are you supposed to do with that? It's obviously a risk, but the upside is well worth it. Yeah, I mean, I think that there's a chance there's like the second or third best offensive football. If the Eric All thing works out, if they all, if they don't even, it doesn't even need to be 17 games. If they play 14 games together, like that is going to be enough where I think that they can be a pretty elite unit. I think my reservation was just again, one thing. I'm just burned by them burning me last year overall, which is like, which is Joe Burrow being injured for half the year. It's not even like he was playing poorly. He was obviously playing. But it can happen. It happens a lot is kind of my concern. And then also I think

I just don't buy the under center thing working as well as it as as it could. Like I just I think that's one where like it could work out, but I need to see it before I actually get there with with them. It's going to be a process. And there is a chance that it's a bet that was not worth making. But again, I think that when you're trying to break through and you're trying to feel a little bit different. I understand why they're trying to lean into it more than they have been over the last couple years because of the benefits that could potentially provide them. If they were running it back, if they were running it back, all shotgun all the time,

we'd be killing them for refusing to adapt. So, I mean, at least they're trying. They would be the only team left. It's not, it's not an exaggeration. They would be the only team left because the other teams up there, well, Kansas City, we'll see what happens with Kansas City. But all the indications from training camp are that the chiefs are going to be under center a lot more this year.

So the Bengals, if they were not doing this, they would truly be the last team. Washington, the Eagles, all those other teams that were up near the top of the league and shotgun rate last year have changed. And the Cowboys were one of the other holdouts that not quite to the same extent, but they were more of a shotgun spread team. And last year, they had like the seventh highest early down play action rate in the entire league. they feel like they have to be closer to the pack

and some of that stuff in order to stay a half step ahead. So what's going to happen at 10 here is miserable. There are a lot of good options here, but all of them come with flaws. Okay. The two times I mentioned before to Derek with the Bengals and the Jags, they're all clumped up together here. I easily could go with the Jags.

The Green Bay Packers finished fourth in EPA per play last year. We have not picked the Green Bay Packers yet. This is agonizing. The best quarterback in the league is still currently on the board? Yes, yes. The best quarterback in the league is currently still on the board. That's one we're like, there are a lot of other considerations there.

I'm going to let somebody else do that. Like, I'm just going to let somebody else do that. The idea of having all the love to Patrick Mahomes, like truly all the love to Patrick Mahomes, what he has been able to do to make that a fringe top 10 offense, seemingly every single year as long as he's healthy is remarkable. I refuse to have my fate

in any way tied to Rishi Rice and 37-year-old Travis Kelsey. I'm just not going to do it. It's just not something I'm going to choose to do. If you guys want to do that, that's up to you. That's your life to live. I think that's fair even if I might do it at some point.

Do you want to sign up to watch all of that methodical football? And it can't do it. I don't want to. And maybe. I can't do it. Kenneth Walker will change that, but even if it works, it doesn't sound that fun to me. And I'm here for a good time, not a long time. I'm down to three, three options here.

This is really hard. This is where you got to start making some stake in your claim on some. I'm going to get like, that's the problem here is that I'm going to do the opposite of that. I'm going to, I'm going to go back on something I said, I think. I'm going to take the Niners. I hate myself. what why that's not that that's not that weird that's like he was on here two weeks ago being like i hate myself it's over i hate myself so much i i am such a spineless piece of shit i hate myself

so much man have to do it i cannot do it they were first in passing success rate last year with kendrick bourne and like mac jones played like six games i i can't it's they were third and EPA per drop back in the second half of last season with Kendrick Bourne, Joanna Jennings, and whoever else. I think there's an important distinction here. And this could apply to the Chiefs, too, to be fair. But like, we're just talking about who's going to have a statistically good offense. Nothing else matters.

And if there's one thing I know, Kyle Shanahan's going to cobble a functional offense together out of a ham bone and a f*** moldy shoe. I know. I wouldn't feel that conflicted about this. It's mostly just because, to be clear, I'm sure that when the Niners are putting up 80 points a game, which is also that's part of it here is I'm emotionally hedging against my previous take.

But when the Niners are scoring like 30 points a game at some point this year, people are going to replay that clip of me saying that I was completely out on them. Just like a subtle nudge, that's the half-baked take show or not sure if we actually believe of that stuff. So just a slight disclaimer there. But it's exactly right, Dave. I mean, they're a top eight offense seemingly every. single year. And even like the Pierce all thing, again, it was one of those in the moment. I was like,

you got to be kidding me. Like I cannot believe we're doing this again. But when you look at the actual players on the field, if Kittle is back early, which it's he by all accounts, he might be back for week one and is not going to go on the Pupplest. So he'll be back sooner after that. Mike Evans is practicing again. And so you do have Mike Evans in the mix here. Stribbling if he can give you something this year. We'll see. And McCathory is currently healthy enough. even though I think he's mispracticed too with like some nebulous tightness Yeah, strange tightness or like unknown.

I was like, I don't know about that, man. They're starting to whisper that maybe he's got holdenitis. He's got, hey, Jemir and Bijan just got paid. I would like a contract adjustment if that's at all possible. Here's the long and the short of all this. I don't feel good about any of it. I don't feel good about anything, but I think I have to do this.

just based on how consistently good they've been on offense, as long as Kyle Shanahan has been there and he's had like more than two players to work with. The last time Kyle Shanahan had a legitimately bad offense was the COVID season. When Nick Mullins and C.J. Bethard combined to start 10 games, Kittle missed half the year, Debo missed half the year, and McCaffrey wasn't there yet.

And like shit probably will hit the fan in some degree. This is an old team, but it'll, probably be pretty solid, even if it's not top five. It'll probably be a pretty good offense, if I had to guess. I was absolutely going to take them if you didn't. And it's purely just because I trust Kyle Shanahan implicitly. Let's take one more quick break and then come back and talk about some of the teams that are left. All right. So Derek, you're up again. I am shocked that the Packers haven't gone yet. I probably should have taken them. No, I'm going to double back on some of the things that I've said, which is that I don't trust this Packers' offensive line for anything, which

which to be fair, I don't. They have no idea who they're starting at guard either spot, really. So I'm a little bit worried about that. But there's one team left on the board who I think has like an MVP caliber quarterback, a play caller that is incredible and skill talent that at their best is just like insane. And that's the Green Bay Packers. And so I have to take them here. Like I.

Insane skill talent. Insane. I think at their best, like if Tucker Craft is healthy, Christian Watson continues to play at the level that he played. And if Golden takes any amount of step, and, Jane and Reed is, if that's your number three, like, I think the skill talent is, like,

pretty nuts. Like, obviously that is, like, the best case scenario for all that stuff. But I do think in the best world, like, the skill talent is really, really good, not like Lions level elite, but, like, pretty damn good. Like it.

I think they're a lot. I'm really bullish on the group overall. I just wasn't, I didn't realize that you were quite as excited about them collectively as that. I think, like, I think I believe in Matthew Golden enough that like and like Christian Watson I think that that was his best ball and the fact that he played his best ball off an injury. I was like, dude, if he could just stay healthy and take a step. Like I think I've come back around to like believing in even if the offensive line scares me, every other factor with this team I believe in to a pretty high level. And so I think I've just gotten there with them that like almost to the same. Not quite to the same. We haven't seen the same peaks as Shanahan. But like to the same level that like Shanahan never really has. bad offenses. Malifle's

offenses pretty much every time are like top 10. He just prints top 10 offenses unless the offensive line is truly like bottom five in the NFL, which even for all my concerns, it probably won't be that because the rules for the offense are so good, that it probably will just never be that bad.

So maybe they won't be the second or third best offense in the league, but I would be shocked if they're not at least like top 12 at minimum. So I'm pretty cool taking the Packers here, even if I have my concerns. 12 would be a significant step backward. Yeah.

Well, I mean, I do think the offensive line is going to be worse, but. But I'm just saying if they take, from where they've been, top 12 would be a significant step backward. So even if you were relatively lower on them, then you would be in a different season, 12th reflects that. Like, that is baked into you picking them 11th here. Mm-hmm. Derek said if Golden takes another step and I thought he said Golden Tate and I was like,

what the hell did I miss? And what are we expecting? 40-year-old golden tape. It's very, I know it maybe it's sacrilegious to put Matt Lafleur with Shanahan. But since Jordan Love took over, they've been 7th, 7th, and 4th in EPA per play on offense. And obviously, they were phenomenal when Aaron Rogers was playing at an MVP level before that. So the track record's really good. And I feel the same way.

Like, I don't love the Packers offense as much as I have in years pass. but I'm relatively confident it will be a solid offense, even if it doesn't light the league on fire. I mean, we, Ted Nguyen does something every year, where he talks to a bunch of defensive coaches around the league and they poll their, the offensive coordinators are hardest to go against.

Matt LaFleur is directly behind Ben Johnson, is fourth. Like, it's, I say it might be sacrilegious to put in with Shanahan. Like, he is in that next tier of guys. Like, he has been in that next tier of guys for a long time. And so I don't think it's that sacrilegious to be putting Matt LaFleur in the rare air when it comes to like the pecking order of NFL play callers. All right. So that's the Packers at 11. Dave,

you're up at 12. Who are you going with? Y'all made my choice kind of easy on me because you methodically took every team that I had bunched around them. And I guess I'm coming for Derek's Duval Crown because I am now going to have drafted both Jaguars units on these shows. And I'm okay with that. I would have been more excited to have the Bengals or maybe honestly I would have I would have taken the 49ers over the Jags just because I trust Shanahan that much. But Liam Cohen's got the goods between what he did in Tampa and what he did last year. I know the Jags only finished in the middle of the pack and EPA per play last year.

But after the Jacoby Myers trade down the final eight weeks of the year, they were sixth in EPA per play on offense. And I know Travis A-chan is a loss. Don't get me wrong. I don't want to shit on him completely. But like the Jags running game was not this force that I think determined their success. And so it was actively bad for most. Especially towards the end. Yeah.

Yeah. The back of the season, it was actively bad. I trust Liam Cohen to figure this out. I like Trevor Lawrence. Like I said, like for there were there were several that I would have taken here. but y'all took them all. And so I don't, I get, I get nervous at the lack of real ads personnel wise,

but just look at it like you did your acquisition last year when you traded for Jacoby Myers. And Parker Washington benefited from it. Obviously, all the word coming out of Jacksonville is that he is building on what he did last year during training camp. They seem very, very pleased with him. And between the play caller and all of that, I just, yeah, I trust this.

Even if I'm not like gung-ho about it. it. I trust it. I actually think. I was really hoping to get them here. I was really, I was really hoping you would go somewhere else. You would go with the Chiefs or something. You can't say you were really hoping I'd go somewhere else after agonizing and then hating yourself for picking the 49ers. That's just double talk. Well, because I just don't like any of the teams that are left. Like I, it's, they're all kind of sneaky. All of the choices I have now, I just, I would have been excited to have the Jags as my final team. I am not excited to have any of the teams that are left, not quite as excited. I almost took the Jags because I actually think

they have a very similar profile to the Packers where it's like at their best the skill talent is like really, really good. The quarterback is pretty good even if imperfect and maybe has never quite reached MVP levels. The play caller, we think is pretty good. And the offensive line is like, can they really get away with that? The difference for me was just, I've seen Jordan Love and Matt Lafleur do it for a longer period of time. And I've seen them reach higher highs. So that was the reason. but like if you tell me that Jacksonville is fifth and Green Bay is eighth or ninth, that wouldn't really surprise me like in the best case scenarios. No, I think they're that there's a tier to me like after the top six or so

where all of these teams are kind of bunched together. And so if the drags finished like at the top of that tier, I think you could easily make an argument that they would belong to like seventh or eighth on the entire pecking order and how you would stack these teams up. And so I'm with you. I think you can make a very similar argument for them that you could with some of these other teams. I mentioned that when Higgins and Burrow were on the field last year, the Bengals average 0.18 EPA per play. When Myers and Washington were on the field last year, the Jags average 0.180PA per play.

Just as good as Jamar Jason T. Higgins. Just the exact same. And so what they showed in the back half of last season is incredibly exciting. And I would be buying the Liam Cohen stock. And I think that Trevor played his best ball by. a wide margin in the back half of last year. What they leaned into, just like how, not necessarily vertical,

but how aggressive the passing game was. Like, just the volume of intermediate, let's rip 15 to 20 yard in breakers. And just like, that's exactly where I want Trevor Lawrence to live. And that's where they had him live. And I think it was an incredibly exciting version of that collection of players.

All right. The correct choice here for me at 13 is, the chiefs. It is the correct choice. You've stated your disgust already. It's okay if you make a different choice. But every other choice here is a little bit disgusting as well. Or you're like having to make some sort of bet. I'm going to go with the chiefs. I really was, I really was hoping you were going to like push them away and I was going to get them at 14. I was, I, I, I, there's two things. There's, like, there's a voice in each year here. The correct choice is to pick Patrick Mahomes in this situation, as ugly as it might be.

The other voice is, do you really want to watch this all year? Do you really want to watch this all year? That's sometimes when I make choices in fantasy football, it's like, I know this is the correct choice. Do I want to be involved in this team all season? And I just think that there is a chance. I just do not want to be involved in the Kansas City Chiefs. But I think they're the last team left, other than maybe the Colts, just because we've

seen the upside with the Colts, where like, the Chiefs could easily finish third in EPA per play. like that that is very possible and so even if i really really don't want this is not a patrick mohams thing by the way just to be very clear about this patrick mohams is an awesome football player i think patrick mozms is fantastic this is everything else i i would i want to be invested in patrick mohams i do not want to be invested in all the other stuff and so i'm getting yanked in two different directions but at 13 i think i have to do this yeah like i i would have felt the same inclination on my next pick

Like, there are a couple of teams, like, I think it'll be fun to make a bet on. But if they had been there for my next pick, I would have been like, dude, he's Patrick Mahomes. He, even if it's disgusting, they'll be the ninth best offense in the NFL, probably. The only regret I wish I hadn't taken the Niners. I had to do it, but I already wish I hadn't taken the Niners. The whole back half of this show has been you regretting your choices and immediately contradicting yourself. It's been very fun to watch. Man.

What a weird time. Last five here. The Packers going 11 is another one that might look crazy in retrospect. All right. Derek, you're up. What do you got in 14? See, I, this, if the Chiefs were there, this would have been a really easy pick for me. Because I think everything after this, you're either banking on like really narrow upside cases or teams that are having to take a leap from where they were last year that are kind of reasonable, but did not obviously do it last year.

I'm going to go with the Minnesota Vikings. I'm going to do it. Oh, yeah. I believe in the infrastructure enough, I think. I think the offensive line, if they are healthy, has a chance to be like an above average, totally solid group. They were 13th in rushing DVOA last year as like, despite the quarterback being, like any quarterback they were putting out there,

not really helping them at all. So the run game was better than I think it had been in years past. So I think that can be a help. I think like the quarterback situation is getting so much better, even if Kylo Murray is the dead ass. average 16th quarterback in the NFL that I think it just lifts everything to such a degree that like we're to get back to the point where like Justin Jefferson is fighting to win triple crowns and stuff like I just I don't know if this has like elite second best offense in the

NFL sort of you know upside but I just like I think that the floor is so much higher than we saw last year if Kylo Murray just plays 14 games and looks pretty good and so I'm I'm willing to make the bet here that they can do it. they would have been one of my they were one of the only other teams I had listed like I don't blame me for doing this at all for me it was them or the Texans and the Texans were better last year really

I've settled a bunch of times I believe in where the offensive line is going and I think that CJ Stroud is better than what the playoff look like I just there's something about like I've seen Kyla Murray play at really high levels before I think they have the best single player on any of those teams is Justin Jefferson

and like I think squinting to see the upside case for the Minnesota offensive line is a little bit easier than it is, I think, for the Texans offensive line. And I think we just have more proof of concept that Kevin O'Connell is a good play caller. So I just, I can see the upside for both teams. There was just something that was a little bit easier for me to get there with Minnesota. I think I didn't give the Vikings a ton of thought. And I think it's just protecting myself because I'm so clearly invested in this working if you've listened to the show this summer that. I just needed to hedge at least one bet and just not have my year be completely ruined if Kyler's not good. But I completely, obviously, the upside's incredible.

I completely understand the logic. The only thing I feel bad about is that now I have every team in the NFC Norse except for the Bears. I've loaded up on one division. But it doesn't matter. It's not like the wins pool where they can't, where they have like when they play each other, one of them has to lose. If anything, the offenses are also good. Maybe they'll just four shootouts on each other and I'm going to look great here. that may be what ends up happening.

I didn't do this on purpose, but I have drafted all AFC teams, and I'm going to keep that going. Interesting, yeah. Oh. And I got to say, I love when a plan comes together because I put this team last on my board on purpose,

because I knew you two haters wouldn't touch them. And I knew that I just wouldn't have to worry about it. And with the last pick in this draft, I feel great about drafting Denver. Absolutely. I mean, this is, I think, at the safest pick

that you can make here by far. Yeah. I mean, as unenjoyable as they were to watch at times last year, they were top, they were 10th in EPA per play and they were 15th in offensive BVOA.

It was not always pretty, but it was pretty effective. And we'll see how it works with the play calling switch. A, I trust what I've heard about Davis Webb and B, Sean Payton is not going to be far away.

Like he'll be clicking in on the headset frequently, I'm sure. like John Payton is going to be involved in this whole thing. And they added Jalen Wattle. They added a couple other intriguing pieces too. Jonah Coleman rocked in the preseason. I'm going to try not to overreact to that too much.

But if you can get a little bit more out of your running game, Pat Bryant is getting all of these great reviews in training camp. I just, I think this could be, like, obviously we all know how we felt about last year's Broncos. But I think this could be a legitimately really good offense if Jalen Waddle is who. they traded for him to be. And so to get him with the last pick, that's the thing. I'm not even drafting them to be an elite NFL offense.

I'm drafting them in the middle of the pack. So if they're middle of the pack or flirt with top 10 production, I know no hesitation with this whatsoever. I mean, yeah, where you're drafting them, this is what they were last year. And so if adding Jaylon Waddle gets them anywhere, like it makes this, this was the better pick than Minnesota.

It's just what Robert was saying about like, is this what you want to be invested in? I couldn't do that. I would rather watch Kyler Murray on the Vikings than Denver Broncos with Bodex. I just can't shake this feeling that the Broncos are actually going to be entertaining this year. Maybe I'm wrong, but when they traded for Waddle,

I was like, yeah, that so perfectly fits what they need. It's also you're betting on the best offensive line remaining by far. I mean, it's maybe one of the best offensive lines in the league. Tampa, if they're healthy, I guess. Yeah, Tampa. Yeah, Tampa is probably in that conversation too. but it's not that group up front is not a bad bet to make. All right, so that's pick 15.

The two teams that I had written down that I would have considered based on how the draft had gone. One, the Seattle Seahawks, I think the Seahawks have a chance to be really good on offense this year. The offensive line comes back entirely. Obviously what J.S.N did last year. You have a much more varied group of pass catchers, Tori Horton, near to Elijah Royo. I'm bullish on what Judarian Price can do just the role they're going to ask him to play. I think the backs will be involved more in the passing game this year.

I'm really actually looking forward to what the Bryant-Flurry version of this offense looks like. And so I think the Seahawks absolutely have a chance to be a top 10 offense. And the other team that I'm more excited about them now than I was a month ago is the Indianapolis Colts. Oh, I couldn't do it. I couldn't do it. Daniel Jones is just healthy. no caveats.

No but I'm just saying like we had the entire offseason it was man you're going to burn the first six weeks because you got a quarterback coming back off of an Achilles and what does that mean for your season he has taken every rep with the first team and he's done everything

they're booting him out they're moving him like this is not a Kirk Cousins coming back off the Achilles sort of situation he has been fully healthy from day one of training camp which to me does reframe how we should talk and think about the Colts offense like now it's just the point of

when Alec Pierce comes back if it's not early in the season that's a different conversation but if it is early in the season now we're talking about a team that finished first in every conceivable metric over the first 10 weeks of last year just losing Michael Pittman

okay but we're doing a lot of gloss in here like you just sort of skipped over the part where Alec Pierce isn't doing anything and we don't know when he's going to be available. I think he that my understanding is that it's going to be sooner rather than later. Okay. I mean, you were just in Indianapolis, so I trust you, but I get nervous. First it was, okay, this is great.

What I'm hearing about Daniel Jones is very encouraging. Now it's where's Alec Pierce? When does he get back? And how does the passing game look? I mean, Michael Pittman's not the best receiver in the NFL. but it's the way everything fit last year. We've talked about it so many times. I'd like some proof of concept that it's still going to

at icily this time around. And not to say that it can't, but I'd feel a hell of a lot better if Alec Pierce was getting reps. I think he'll be back sooner rather than later. I think there is a very, there is a conceivable universe here that's not hard to imagine where Alec Pierce is back by week one and Keenan Allen is on this team. And I think that collection of past catchers

plus the quarterback being healthy. Plus, we're talking about who you're betting on. Shane Steichen is the best play caller left. By far. Yeah. And so this team has the highest ceiling of all the teams that we didn't pick by a lot. And we've already seen it. Again, obviously it's maybe a little bit lower

with some of the things that they've lost, but we did see it before the quarterback got hurt. I think for me it was just like I probably think the floor is lower than, not even necessarily than some of the other teams, but just like then maybe you. did. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think that's fair.

But the Seahawks and the Colts were the other two teams I considered. All right. So Dave, you pick first. Do you have any other teams you wanted to mention, Derek, before we go through the teams? The only thing I wanted to say, I think Tampa was the weirdest team for me to try to get a handle on. Because the offensive line is incredible. I think the quarterback plays fine. I think the skill players are night.

Like, they were just a weird team that, like, I think the ceiling is not that high. But if they're like, we look up and they're the 12th best offense, I don't think it'll be that weird. I wouldn't have blamed someone for taking them. It would just been hard for me. Because the ceiling's just not that exciting. Yeah. It's also, I mean, it's,

it's dangerous doing these shows during training camp, but I just read a report within the last 10 minutes about the Bucks not knowing when a mecca Bucca is going to be available. Well, that would change things. Ameca has got a toe injury. Chris Godwin,

between age and injury history. It's hard to feel super great about that. And all of a sudden, it's a little thinner than I want it to be. And the Bucks, I mean, the division they play in helps them. But like the bullishness I felt about them last year is just, it's not materializing this summer. Yeah.

Todd Bowles, when I asked about him, Ekebuka's timeline per Greg Alman, will it impact his week one availability? Not sure at this time. Good stuff. This is coming from the same team where the Bucky Irving thing was like, oh, he'll be back. And then he just did really fine.

And he was just like, MIA. Yeah. So that's always good. I guess the one team that we haven't even brought up, I mean, Seattle is a good one. And then I understand there's a host of reasons to be scared of this, but Philadelphia is out there in the ether somewhere. And maybe if Sean Mannion's awesome,

they clearly still have so much firepower. Going back to the whole, do I want to sign up for this for the entire football season, though? Like, do I want to do the weekly? sky is falling. Oh, we scored 38 points. Everything's good. And now the sky is falling. What happened to the cool plays from September? Where did those go? Like, I just, it might be great, but I just don't want to sign up for that ride right now. I signed up for some rides. I think I'm going to regret. I signed up for some, I signed up for some rides where at some point this year, I'm going to want to get off the ride. Even if it ends up coming out fine. All right, Dave, you pick first. Who are your five teams? went with the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Denver Broncos. A full AFC team, which was a total accident, but I'm not mad

about it. Derek? I had the Dallas Cowboys who, not sure I should have taken them over the Rams, but I was sticking to my board, given I thought the Rams were going to go first. So I had the Cowboys, I had the Detroit Lions, I had the Los Angeles Chargers, and then I had the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings. I have the Los Angeles Rams, the Chicago Bears, the Cincinnati Bengals, the San Francisco 49ers,

and the Kansas City Chiefs. Those last three are just, I understand why I did them. There is just so much baked into those three picks. It is going to be one hell of a year. Those are like some white knuckle picks. You're like, because you understand why in the moment,

but like all of those teams, like it's just been some kind of, an adventure for all three of those over the last five years. And to willingly sign up for all of them in the same exercise is maybe something I will come to regret. But there's a reason that they were all appealing in the moment. Joe Burrow, Kyle Shanahan, and Patrick Mahomes might be enough to smooth it over. All right.

That is all we've got for today. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We will be back tomorrow. One quick note, live show, September 1st in Chicago at Lincoln Hall, doing the Winspool draft live. Tickets are going fast. So if you want them, make sure to jump on them now. 7.30. We will do some Q&A after, some meet and greet after. We would love to see you guys. We would love to meet you. We'd love if you could spend some time with us. So please come and hang out. Tickets are available on the Lincoln Hall website and in the description below. For now,

that's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys. Listen, we'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.