The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Drafting the best defenses in the NFL

Episode Date: August 13, 2026

Get your tickets for the live show! https://lh-st.com/shows/09-01-2026-the-athletic-football-show-with-robert-mays/Tired: Ranking. Wired: Drafting. On this episode of The Athletic Football Show, Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman draft who they think will be the best defenses in the NFL. Three drafters, five teams apiece, whoever's quintet ends the season with the best EPA per play wins. Derrik is on the clock...0:00 Welcome to the show4:35 Houston Texans10:14 Seattle Seahawks16:02 Los Angeles Rams22:01 Philadelphia Eagles27:21 Denver Broncos33:00 Cleveland Browns42:23 Pittsburgh Steelers49:18 Baltimore Ravens53:30 Minnesota Vikings59:09 Jacksonville Jaguars1:06:01 Buffalo Bills1:12:36 Kansas City Chiefs1:15:44 New York Giants1:20:20 New England Patriots1:20:45 New Orleans Saints1:20:57 Dallas Cowboys1:25:50 Los Angeles Chargers1:29:11 Indianapolis Colts1:31:39 Recap1:33:09 LIVE SHOW!Join The Athletic Football Show Discord Server: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowHost: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @RobertMaysFollow Dave on X: @DaveHelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. We are drafting some defenses today. Instead of just doing a top 10 list of defenses, we thought this would just be a more fun way to do it. We'll get into the specifics of the rules as I go through the intro with Dave and Derek. But pretty simple, that's what we're doing today. We are drafting me, Dave, and Derek, the top 15 defenses in football for 2026.

Let's get to that discussion with the three of us right now. We're doing something a little bit different today with our best. defenses ranking concept compared to what we have done in previous years. We've done, as all NFL podcasts have done between June and July, every single offseason. We used to rank or pick the top 10 defenses and offenses heading into the season. For multiple reasons, I wanted to change it up a little bit. I think this is a more fun way to do it. It's a more streamlined way to do it.

And it adds some actual stakes to an exercise like this in a way that I'm really looking forward to. Who doesn't love a draft? Yes. It brings out the best. arguments as we've been finding out this summer and there are long-term stakes. Is there something at stake at the end of the year? I think so we're doing this for offense and defense. I don't think we should do anything as drastic as the windspool.

We'll all be in Chicago for the Super Bowl or for the playoffs. And then we'll obviously all be in L.A. for the Super Bowl. I think dinner. Yeah. Loser for each of these buys dinner twice during the playoffs, I think is the move. How nice of the dinner. Pretty nice. Okay.

We're going somewhere good. I think we can be respectful of everyone's situation while also making that person pay for losing. Demis, Scott and Katie, get to get in on the dinner? No. I mean, you. That's too much. That's too cool. You can come, but we're not paying for you. That's like a $700 dinner.

Like, I'm not going to ask. I'm just assuming Derek is losing in this scenario because you lost the windspool. What the hell? We don't like to ask Derek to pick up like an $800 meal for you guys. You're not a part of this. I just really. I'm really excited about this show, but I really. present the position that you're putting us in because you're fresh off of touring half the camps in the lead.

No, no, no. You're looking at the wrong way. There's too much going on up here. Mike, you're thinking too much. So overthinking this scenario now is just extraordinary. I appreciate that because I'm just imagining you with this glint in your eye about all of the end of the roster guys to be excited about. Absolutely not. No, that is not how I'm feeling whatsoever. You guys being removed from it probably gives you more clarity about how you rank these teams than I did. One little rule-based thing, just because because there are stakes associated with this and because we typically don't do snake drafts to make it more exciting,

we're going to swap the order after the third round. So, Dave, you will make the last pick of the third round as pick number three and the first pick of the fourth round, and the fourth and fifth rounds will just reverse the order. So it'll be you, me, Derek, you, me, Derek. So just a heads up, trying to make it as fair as possible. We'll also not having a bunch of two picks in a row because that ruins half of the fun. Yeah, it's just nerdy enough to make it more interesting

without getting bogged down in the details. Exactly. So we did one of the 100 yard dashes, digital 100 yard dashes to set the order yesterday. I wish we had recorded the digital 100 yard dash. I don't know if you guys have ever done those to figure out an order or do like a randomizer. Typically, it's pretty entertaining the whole way through

in the sense that they're all pretty even for most of it. Derek just sprinted the 100 yards in like two seconds to win and get the first pick in this draft. So Derek would be in the first. It looked like I've literally the first like 70 yards you snapped your finger and it was just gone. And I was like, all right, I guess I get the first pick. I've done plenty of those in order to figure out draft orders over the 15 years I've been doing content. That is the funniest one that I've seen or the weirdest one that I've seen.

Derek sprinted to the end and my guy walked the whole length of the field, which maybe an accurate representation of what a race between the three of us would look like. I don't know. That part of it I did actually enjoy. The fact that it might be a real-life representation. of things. But Derek landed with the first overall pick. So lay it honest, Derek.

Oh, by the way, this is EPA per play. That's the only other housekeeping in the United Address. Where these teams finish in EPA per play is how we will be making our picks and how we will make the final determination at the end of the season. And it's combined. Your five teams combined. Yes, combined. It's through the way and lose.

Yes. So, yeah, obviously your 15 matters here and it could potentially weigh you down. So that's all the housekeeping stuff, right? We have all that out of the way. Okay. Derek, you are free to make the first pick. I don't think there's a lot of mystery here about how much time is going to pick. There might be for other people.

For Derek, I do not think there's going to be a lot of mystery here. No, I'm sprinting to the Houston Texans. I mean, they are the best defensive roster in football. They are the most complete defensive roster in football. They were arguably the best defense in the league last year and didn't really lose anyone.

Like Derek Barnett is not on the roster now, but they signed Jadavian Clowney to replace him and also signed Reed Blankenship and safety, who I think is a good player. And if there was maybe any weak point at what the Texans defense was like, last year it was a little bit that maybe safety wasn't perfect. Now that they had him, I'm just like, they've got plus starters at basically every position and at a handful of positions like Will Anderson and Derek Stingley.

You can argue that they're the best or second best player at their entire position. Yeah, I think this is the easy pick. Overwhelmingly, I mean, there are a couple other options, but I don't know, man. I would like to give some respect to the team that I'm going to pick second based on what happened last year. But I think for a lot of the reasons Derek said, the fact that there are three or four, four teams worth mentioning here, and we don't have to because we're doing a draft. But there are three or four teams worth mentioning here, but I don't know, man. The Texans is just not, it's not hard to make the case, and it is hard to argue against it.

There are other teams that finished at the top of the league in defense last year that have some turnover where there are question marks. Right. You're relying on, all right, this is an unknown in terms of how we're going to be able to replace this player. The guys that the Texans lost this off season, Derek mentioned Derek Barnett, Tim Settle, was a rotational defensive line for this. team last year. Like, those are the types of guys we're talking about. And you could easily make the argument that a combination of Jedevi and Clowny and the second half of the season version of Caden McDonald is an upgrade most likely over

the players that the Texans lost this offseason. Did we mention Reed Blankenship, too? Yeah. Throw him into the mix. There's just, there's not a lot in the way of weakness when you look at the two deep here. Some of the numbers I wanted to throw out. I was trying to find that. I'm glad you brought numbers because with the Texans, I didn't even.

I was like, they were so easily my pick that I just didn't even do research. So the number that I landed on that I thought was the just like so telling about where this team was last year, they allowed negative 0.25 EPA per dropback on early downs. So theoretically, in the situations where it should be hardest to defend the past because we have 50-50 plays on the board, the Texans allowed negative 0.25 EPA per dropback on early downs. that was wedged between, if you look at quarterback efficiency from last year, it's about what Brady Cook was in his snaps for the Jets. I was going to say, I don't even think that, like, Cam Ward's numbers were that bad or, like, J.J. McCarthy, that is, like, quarterback who does not deserve to be on the field level bad EPA replay.

Yeah, I mean, it's everything you want they were really good at last year. And what I appreciate about them is it's just the simplest defense in the league. It's the simplest good defense in the league where you kind of know what they're doing. and it just doesn't really matter, they figured out a lot of ways to kind of refine some of the areas where they might even have weaknesses. Like, in talking to people there, they've done a really good job of kind of tweaking

some of their responsibilities for like Jalen Petrie and certain match coverages because when you have him at the nickel, teams can try to isolate him in man-covered situations or man-like situations and they've built in mechanisms in order to kind of lessen the impact of stuff like that. That's the cool part about this defense is that because it is so relatively simple, all they spend their time doing

is figuring out how to cover up for those weaknesses. It's kind of the argument for being really simple on defense is that if you are doing the same things over and over and over again, it streamlines what other teams are going to do to you. So it limits the amount of things you have to account for. And I think they've been really, really good at figuring that out combined with the fact that they have all the best players. Yeah, like when you simplify what you do on,

defense. Sure, the other team knows what they're getting, but you end up in less spots where it's like, oh, we called this defense and we got got by the other play. It's like, no, like you know all the rules to what you're playing, whereas like the Broncos, I think are an excellent defense. But because they're a little bit more rolladex, sometimes you just get caught in the wrong play and somebody throws a bomb on you. And that just doesn't really happen to the Texans because of the way they do it. And the last thing I would say, too, in terms of like covering up the weaknesses, if there was like any structural thing I looked at with the Texans defense last year, I went back and actually watched a lot of their first intends for a little study I was doing.

When they rolled down the safety to play like the weak B and C gap in the run game, that guy could get moved a little bit. But if it's read Blankenship now, part of what he was so good at in Philly was filling that spot. And so it's like them being so aware of like what is the last issue that we had in this defense, they just, it's a testament to how they understand things over there. I also,

I think that's a really good thing to bring up because that did come up when I was down there that I feel like they can fire the safeties and like run blitz looks a little bit more than they had previously and the re-blanketship wants to do some of that stuff. I do think they're going to be layers to what they do this year that this didn't exist last year. I do think there's going to be a little bit more dime because Jalen Smith, who was their third round pick from last season, he played four games last year. And so he's coming into this season healthy. And so if you can move Camarro Laster inside and some of those dime looks and put Petriot linebacker, that's just another layer you can kind of fold on top of everything else they're doing on third

down. And I think, again, the defensive line depth, there's a lot of turnover there. But You could easily make the argument that by the end of this season, Caden MacDonald can be the most impactful interior defensive lineman that this team has had in the D'Amico Ryan's era, which is just a terrifying cherry on top to everything else this team is. All right, I have the second pick. I'm not overthinking this. I'm going with Seattle C. Hawks.

Hell yeah. Correct. Put some respect on Mike McDonald's name. Yeah. I mean, this is going to sound like shade toward the personnel, because the personnel is still very good, but they lost enough player-wise where you could talk yourself into second-guessing it, and that's where Mike McDonald comes in.

I'd say yes and no. I think that, yeah, losing Tariquo, and we talked about this yesterday, and we were talking about the other outside corner and whoever it's going to be for this team and the pressure on that player because of what they want to do with Devon Wetherspoon, if I'm being honest, if I'm looking at the Seahawks right now and my concerns for what they're going to be on defense over the course of the year, the fact that Nikki Manwari is worried about scooting around, practice early in training camp and we might not see him for a little while,

it might be more concerning to me than the idea of swapping out some combination of Ty Okada and Bud Clark for Kobe Bryant. Right. Because the back end of this defense, I think, was more hurt last year than people remember. If you look at it, Okada played 739 snaps. I saw the same thing when I was doing this. For the Seahawks last year. I would have guessed it was a big number, but 750 surprised me.

750 snaps for Okada last year. that was in place of Julian Love mostly, not of, and Kobe Bryant. And so maybe that's a, you know, that's a consideration where, okay, now, you know, if Okada plays there next to Julian Love, do you have the same amount of range that a guy like Kobe Bryant gave you or the safety is a little bit more boxed in? You could try to kind of, or you can maybe go down that road a little bit. I'm just not that worried about it. And I think part of the reason, Derek, is because even if some of the back end stuff is changing,

in my opinion the secret sauce and what makes this thing go is what's happening up front where the only guy you really lost is boy at Maffei and the guys who really make this go in the most important way like the engine of how the Seahawks play they allowed a 34 and a half percent rushing success rate out of two high structures last year 34 and a half percent

I don't know exactly what the league average was on those but it was significantly higher than that that was the best mark in the league they had more than two touchdowns worth of total EPA better by opposing offenses on those two high structure runs than the next best team in the league. Two touchdowns over the course of the year. When you can play like that against the run out of those boxes, it just allows you to do everything else. And I don't anticipate that being any harder for them this year than it was last year because all those guys are coming back.

Yeah, that's not what Maffa gave you, even if he's gone. And they, you know, they honestly, like, Maffa is a good player, but they also signed Dante Fowler. you could probably get like 85% of what you were getting from Boy Amafi as a pass rusher from Fowler, especially if he's like a deep rotational player for you. So on that front, I'm not worried. I would say like all the losses that they've had, all that moves me off of is like that that just made me picking the Texans easier. But as far as like them, they, I still think that there are four or five defenses that by the end of the year might be the best in the league. I'm not any less convinced that the Seahawks are one of those teams, obviously.

I'm with you on that. That's exactly how I was thinking about it. If I had the number one pick, I would have picked the Texans because of that exact reason, where I just have fewer questions about some of the turnover. But the Seahawks were still a pretty easy number two pick for me. I'll say this, Derek. I get where you're coming from about teams that have a chance to be the best defense in the league. I don't know exactly where I sat with it on like August 12th of last year.

But I think I thought there were more candidates for that last year than I think there are right now. For best defense in the league? I had a harder tier break after like four teams in this exercise than I might have had last year. think that 10 was a little bit bigger. Four sounds right to me. Like there are four teams that I... I don't want to show my hand. No, for sure.

But I'd say there are four that I love on a deeper level than everybody else. I think that's kind of where I said as well. Where the top four, I was like, all right, I think you can make an argument for any of these. After that, even if there are defenses that have been really good, it's just a little tiny things that gave me a little bit more pause than the top four. I honestly, I don't think that that's like, you know, teams six through 10 are necessarily worse going into this year than they were last year. I just think that that top group has really crystallized.

Like it's pretty obvious who the elite defenses are now, I think. I think some of those teams that are like five through seven for me, really just like five and six, when we get into it, the teams that are five and six to me probably would have been in that conversation last year. I think it's mostly just that when I look at the top four, the Texans, Eagles, and Rams all got better. And the, I said all the teams.

But I think the top four, all personnel, wise got better than except for Seattle. But with Seattle, it's like, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. Like, if I'm up the opinion. Well, and if they drop a little bit, they're still on par with those teams probably. Exactly. I think even if they get a little bit worse, even if the personnel gets a little bit worse, I think they still have a really good chance to be the best defense in the league

wins all said and done. There are enough things with Seattle where I was a little more conflicted. You made my choice for me, though. Thank you. I mean, Seattle's a perfectly reasonable and good pick at number two. We talked about the stuff in the second. secondary. I did, if I'm looking and I'm, you're poking holes when you're drafting teams this highly. Like if I'm trying to poke holes, one of my favorite players of the last decade, Demarcus Lawrence is 34. Yeah. Has had plenty of injury issues over the course of his career. It's it, it's under the radar win for Seattle that he was as healthy as he was last year and obviously was so productive. Can you get that again? Fowler's 32. Fowler. What are you going to get out Fowler? It's definitely older. It could look worse by two-thirds of the way through the season than it does right now,

but I think the Seahawks deserve the benefit of the doubt, absolutely. So I'm cool with that, and then it makes my pick at number three really easy because I was torn between the Seahawks and Rams for two overall. And I don't really, I don't know how much we have to say. They were fourth and defensive DVOA last year, and they added Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson to their secondary, and that would have been enough to have you really excited and then you've swapped out Jared Verse for the best player in football.

And by the way, Aaron Donald could still sign up before the season starts. So I didn't have to think that hard about it. Per next gen, they had the highest pressure rate in the league last year when rushing four. Yeah. And they traded for miles. They had the second best pressure rate in the league just period. Like they were over 40% last year. And, okay, actually, I don't want to tip my hand.

So I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to, swallow the words I was about to say but I mean they are so deep on the defensive line I've said this many times over the course of the off season the secondary was not as bad as you remember because of the playoffs they were bad in the playoffs

don't get me wrong but it's a perfect example where it's a secondary that when you're doing all of this big picture like 17 game over the course of the season you can hold up when you start to isolate in playoff game plans and it's like we're just going to circle this guy for

60 straight minutes, that's where that type of secondary shows up. And I think the Rams are really good example of that. It's wild that they were top 10 in EPA per dropback against the pass in the regular season and just got worked in all of their playoff games. And so I think Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson will go a long way toward fixing that. They've got like four safeties you feel good about. Multiplicity on the back end and flexibility in the back end is wild now. My only concern is depth, but like there just aren't very many.

teams where depth isn't a concern. Where's your depth concern? I mean, you're one snap away from needing Emmanuel Forbes to play significant role. But he did last year. I mean, like, we just said that that was like, it's good enough up to a point, but can be a problem eventually. Oh, yeah, but it'll be a problem eventually. But I think the fact that we're talking about a defense that over the course of the season

last year was top five with that guy, you can survive with him. And I just think that they're in a much better spot depth-wise than they were a year. Of course. Of course they are. Of course they are, but if Emmanuel Forbes needs to play meaningful snaps here, and again, who the Rams are and where they sit heading into this season informs all of my opinions about them. But Emmanuel Forbes could conceivably be the difference between,

like winning the Super Bowl and a disappointing season, which is any other result. So maybe that's me being a little too chicken little. But if I was looking for something to be concerned about, it would be that depth, even more so than stuff like the linebackers. Like, I'm totally at peace with the linebackers. I would love to see like one more cornerback in that room or one more cornerback that I feel better about. I think that's clutness of this point.

Of course that's what the Rams are, baby. Come on. And like, who would you be shocked if the Rams were like, you know, you think we need one more? Like, of course, they would do that. But all of that said, they were awesome last year. they, I mean, it's just an embarrassment of riches. I might have taken them to overall if I had the, if I had that pick, I don't know. We'll never know.

But I certainly might have done the same thing. I don't think that that's a good. I understand that. I just admit a point now where McDonald is the defensive version of those mainstay offensive guys where I'm just like, he'll make it work. Like he's just going to make it work. I just have so much inherent faith in what he's done over the last few years.

He's the best defensive play caller in football, period. Like, I don't even think that's a conversation when you think about the situational stuff. But structurally, the Rams are in such a good spot. And again, getting back to the back end, think about what they can do in those dime looks now, where you can move Trent McDuffie inside. And those are the situations where if Manuel Forbes is going to have to play. Yeah. But when it's third and eight, I think one of the biggest concerns they had when they rebuilt the secondary,

it's overall cornerback quality, yes. But when they looked at a team like Seattle and the physicality that Seattle had at cornerstone, I think that's what they were envious of. You can put Emmanuel Forbes out there in third and eight because that matters less. You're not worried about teams running on the perimeter in those situations. And so just the sheer amount of options they have back there,

they led the league in dime snaps last year, I assume they will do that again because of the current personnel that they have. The fact that they go as deep as they do on the defensive line, like Tyler Davis is a useful player. They just have so many guys to cycle through there, and that's before we even get to a world where Aaron Donald is back here.

I was going to say, I feel sorry for whoever on the defensive line isn't going to get a jersey on game day because Donald's going to be up. And Donald might only play 25 snaps a game, but that's worth it. Sorry. I don't think that's going to happen. You don't think he would be there only to play like a bit role? Yes. Okay. Oh, no.

We'll have Aaron Donald playing. No, Aaron Donald is playing 50. That is, because that was one of the biggest things I wanted to know when I was there was like, what has been the conversation about why he wants to do this? this and what the conditions would be with him coming back. And I think they floated the idea to him of like, well, you could just be one of the five guys. And he essentially stared through their souls after they said that to him. And so I don't anticipate him coming back to be some bit rotational player. I think if he's going to come back, he thinks he can be Aaron Donald.

Okay. So having Kobe Turner as the freshest substitute in the league. Peyton Fiske is going to play 25 steps a game. Oh, no. It's just like some situational fastball pitcher now. Sorry, Braden. Sorry, Kobe. All right.

Before we get to the second round, let's take her first quick break. All right, buddy. You're up again. Derek, you have the first pick in the second round. Who you take in fourth overall? Yeah, I had a tier of the two teams we just talked about, Seattle Seahawks and the Rams. And then in that tier, I also had my pick, the Philadelphia Eagles.

I was really hoping that you'd get coaxed by, like, the Broncos and the Vikings or another team. I was really hoping I could get the Eagles at five. I mean, all teams that are up near there for me, I think with the Eagles, it's just that I think you look at the cornerback room, and there's a chance that those three guys with Cooper DeGine, Kunyan Mitchell, and Rick Wollin, that that's the best trio in the NFL. And there's obviously some other good ones.

But I just think that there's a chance that those guys are truly special. I still think that the front is obviously going to be really good. If Jalen Carter is a little bit healthier, I think Renard's obviously still got a lot going on. Jihad Campbell, I thought, played really well. And so he's obviously replacing a guy who played there a while in the Kobe Dean. But I think Campbell can really be an X factor if he, I think, steps into his own this year. And the other thing that I would say, two things. One, obviously, we know Fangio's great.

We also know that, like, he has the gas to call the best defense in the league. Like, I think we all believe that he can absolutely do that. And the Eagles defense was as good as it was last year, with the offense being not good at all and putting them in a lot of bad situations. The Eagles offense went three and out at the second or at the fifth highest rate in the league. So the Eagles defense was constantly in bad spots. And it still didn't matter because of the way that they were calling it and how good those players are. And they've only, I think, gotten better talent-wise this year. So this is just a team where if there are four or five defenses, I think, could be number one in EPA per play or DVOA, whatever, at the end of the season.

It's Vic Fangio's Eagles. Yeah. You could easily make an argument to me to have them at two. I think that they're that kind of team. I was there last week and I think there's a sentiment with this defensive system and just, you know, whatever, defensive systems overall, when you get to year three with really the same core group of players, you get to a point where it's at the peak level of like the evolution necessary within that lifespan of the defense where you know where all the weaknesses are. You know what all the guys are capable of. The guys that have been there now in year three, like the Quinnian Mitchells and the Cooper.

Britishines. You've added enough stuff onto their play where you feel like they're fully weaponized now. And there's just not a lot of personal weaknesses. The Grinard thing, I guess, makes me a little bit worried, the fact that he's still not practicing after suffering the peck injury that he did this offseason. But it sounds like he's going to be back.

J. Link's haunt has apparently looked incredible during training camp. And so now you go, and Nolan Smith didn't even really play for this team last year for a huge chunk of the season. So you have three edge rushers you feel good about. You're talking about Jalen Carter being better this year, Derek, that them signing him to that deal makes me feel good about physically where he's at. Like, that to me is the biggest possible signal that he's going to look physically different than

he did a year ago. And the idea that now Tariq Wollin is just on the other side and now you can do different things with Quinyon Mitchell than you would have been doing before. The only real point of concern is that second safety spot. And my God, if that's what we're sitting here fixating on in the first week of August about a team like with this level of talent everywhere else, It's not a bad place to be. Well, and now if you have, they were already asking Quinyan Mitchell to play a lot of one-on-one coverage last year. But if you have Quinyon Mitchell who can do it, Cooper DeGine can do it.

And now Rick Wollin can do it way better than, you know, Adori Jackson or Keely Ringo or whatever last year. I kind of give a shit less about how good my safeties are. If I can just play a little bit more one-on-one coverage and I know that these guys are going to lock stuff down, especially down the field. Obviously, because of how good he is and because of how much money they paid him, you want Jonathan Grenard to be available sooner rather than later. But in addition to everything else you just said,

I was doing the same thing as you looking through their depth chart. And I was like, Arnold Ebiketti and AJ Epinessa are like fallback options if that doesn't pan out. Like that's a good spot to be in addition to all of the homegrown options that you have. And they go three deep a defense to tackle too. The idea that when they're at Nicomoro, Jomo is just like some subrusher, it's a pretty good place to be. It's an enviable position. I think a lot of teams would like to be in. I think this, this defense has the potential to be.

I've said it before. They have the potential to be top three, maybe best in the league if they catch the right breaks. Oh, I think they have the potential to be the best Vic Fangio defense we've seen in Philadelphia, including the Super Bowl year. Like, that's on the table for me. I think so, too. And the other thing is like we're a little bit unclear on safety. You know, Mukuba, I think, is still a little bit coming into his own.

He's a little bit of a smaller player. And Marcus Epps is going to be taking over that other spot. It's been an elite Eagles defense before with Marcus Epps playing a lot of snaps for them. Like, it's not an ideal situation, but like, I think that they can do it. Yeah, and he's just a couple years older, and it hasn't looked great since he left. But I think they're one of the reasons he has the inside track to win that job is just that he knows the system. He's reliable. If you're worried more about floor there than you are ceiling, which I completely understand,

considering the amount of talent you have everywhere else, like we don't need to worry about being dynamic at our second safety spot. Let's put a guy back there that we don't think will make a ton of mistakes and we'll let the other guys be the playmakers. I think that's a good mindset to have and I think it's the one that they do. All right. Well, this is a bummer because I think that is the tier break to me. I think there was those four teams and I drew a line. I mean, I'm not upset about the team I'm going to pick here, considering they finished number one and dropback success rate

and second and run defense success rate last year per true media. I'm going to go with the Denver Broncos. Yeah, don't overthink that. Yeah. They're really good, even if I agree that maybe there's a slight tier break. I just think when you look at the personnel for this team compared to the top four teams we were like looking at, even if the players are still the same, I do think that there are areas of relative weakness,

mostly just in coverage. Like when you look at Stranad, Singleton, and the safeties for this team compared to what they look like on the teams that we just talked about, it's just a different caliber of player and it's a different caliber of coverage in the spine of the defense.

That'd be like one of my concerns. And the other part is just less interior defensive line depth. Right? Like you lose John Franklin Myers. Tyler on Yadam, is that how you pronounce it? On Yadam. On Yadam, who they drafted in the third round. Obviously, that's a,

we need to backfill this, but there's a reason John Franklin Myers made like $20 million a year in free agency even at this stage of his career. But that front and just what that front looks like and the pressure world they were living in last year was so incredibly creative. Like the waves that they were using the safeties

as blitzers at points last year, I guess that's one of the other areas that if I did have a little bit of pause about a team that's been a top five defense over the last couple years, I want to give Vance Joseph a ton of credit because he deserves it. This team was 30th in defensive DVOA in 2020.

Jim Leonard comes before the 2024 season, and they finished third in defensive DVOA the season after that. There's a whole host of reasons for that. Personnel improvements, them playing more man coverage to lean into what Patrick Sartan was. It's not just the Jim Leonard part of it, but I think I'm very curious to see what the pressure world for the bills looks like compared to what the pressure world for the Broncos looks like

with one team losing that. guy and one team gaining that guy. So those are just like sort of the things in the back of my mind as to why there may be a half step down from the other teams, Derek, but I still feel okay getting the Broncos at five. I mean, if I had the fifth pick, that's who I was going to take. Like I just, and I love the way that they play defensive. If anything, like Vic Fangio's Eagles, defenses are great. I like watching the Broncos more because I think it's just kind of some of the stuff that they do, like they're a little bit more of a Rolodex team. Their pressures are weird. They play a lot more man coverage. Like, I really do enjoy it. And I think, like, there are pluses and minuses to

the way that they play defense, right? Like them being so aggressive and them being as much of a Rolodex team, I think because offenses don't always know what they're getting, the Broncos are actually, and I look this up and I forget what the number is now, but like, especially on first and tens, they don't give you a first down immediately on first and 10 very much. Like, because teams are, I think, scared to push the ball. It's just the one in 15 times that you kind of catch him in a weird coverage or you catch them in a weird blitz, you're going to pop them for 40. But they're willing to live that way because it's like, we know that we're going to keep you behind the sticks and we're going to make you grind this out. And they're obviously the way that they get in the backfield is

incredible. And so this is a team that is pretty much running it back with a lot of the same guys. And I do think the Leonard of it all is a little bit interesting. I also do think part of the reason they were so bad early on with Vance Joseph and then gotten better is because they're a team that just does so much stuff. Like I think when you're throwing that much stuff at the wall at a certain point, it kind of just takes guys a little bit of buy-in, a little bit of making sure that you're in the right spot and all that stuff. And then one player I did want to actually shout out before we move on from the Broncos

at all or whatever. Ayoma Uwazerike, one of their defensive linemen. If he takes a step, he's kind of about as good as John Franklin Myers is. I thought he actually had some really impressive flashes last year. So hopefully they can get a little bit more out of him to kind of replace JFM, who is still an excellent player. It's it's not a pleasant storyline at all. But the main thing that gives me pause with the Broncos is just whatever the Jonathan

Cooper situation is, a guy that was. That's another thing worth bringing up. Arrested twice during OTAs. It sounds like all of that is pending, but it's alleged, you know, domestic violence related issues.

I haven't, there's not a whole lot in the way of resolution yet. I think he's got a hearing on like August 31st, not making late of that at all. all, but you could potentially be without him, depending on how the league decides to handle that. And Nick Benito is an amazing player, but if Jonathan Cooper's not part of that, and again, I don't want to diminish why he might not be, but like, I don't love the edge depth behind Benito if you remove Jonathan Cooper from that, from that jingot-tah.

The hope is probably that Jonah Ellis can kind of be the next guy up there and like be like that one the next like bendy speed rusher they have that can be an impactful player. But yeah, if they lose Jonathan Cooper. I think that's absolutely more Matthew. Now we're down two of the guys who made that front what it was over the last couple of seasons. But again, I think that there's a slight step down from this group compared to the top four, but this is

where things landed. And so I'm okay with the Broncos here at 5. Dave, you are up at number 6. This is where it really sucks to be. And of course I disagree. I think there's one more team here before then it really changes, in my opinion. You think there's one more team? I mean, I just, I think there's more

there's more wish casting with every other team after the ones that have gone off the board in my opinion we'll talk about it who are you going with I don't know I have a couple of options that I feel good about but you know what like I might regret this when I'm buying y'all dinner

in January but I'm just I'm gonna go with a team that I'm excited to talk about because they're not a very exciting team and there are there are some defenses there are some defenses that deserve of consideration here. A couple of them wear purple.

But I'm actually, I'm going to draft the Cleveland Browns. Wow. Oh, okay. Okay. I like this. I'm very curious. I was really interested in where they were going to go. They are in my top 15 for sure.

Like I probably would have picked them if we got to the end of it. Say more. Why the Browns this high with some of the other teams that are on the board here? So, okay, obviously, we talk about the Vikings. I think there's, I love Browns. Ryan Flores, there's, like I said, wishcasting. Like, you're hoping rookies can do a lot of heavy lifting for the Minnesota Vikings. The Baltimore Ravens, Jess, I know I'm giving teams away, but I don't think I need to tell you all that those teams might be pretty good on defense.

Those are worth considerations. But again, like, what's the nom de Matabee-Madabee situation? What's the deal with the cornerbacks? Marlon Humphrey has gotten injured since we've last talked, by the way. So what is the depth in the Baltimore secondary look like? I could look really stupid for not taking Baltimore. And that's fine. But God help me.

I love an underdog. And I'm, I'm very fascinated by the way that we just write the Browns defense off because Miles Garrett is gone. And of course, of course, that is a monstrous loss.

He's the best defender of football. Jared Verse is still a really good football player. Like, he's an incredible football player. He was ruining practice yesterday. He was ruining practice yesterday when I was there. I didn't confirm this because, Mon can talk before practice.

I think they were taking him out on purpose. Because they couldn't get anything done? Yes. There were multiple plays where he made the play and then he came out as the rest of the first team defense stayed in there. And I think they're just like, we need to get stuff done. You're going to go stand on the sideline for a little bit. So the thesis for my statement here is the Browns potentially have a game changing

presence at all three levels of their defense versus third in the league and pressures over his time in the NFL. he's eighth among edge players and pressure percentage. He's not Miles Garrett. He's awesome. Carson Swessinger. Derek, do you want to take the floor on this? He is extremely awesome.

He is, listen, if I'm drafting linebackers and Fred Warner's gone, that might be who I'm taking. Carson Swessinger showed all pro potential as a rookie. Of course. Not practicing right now. Not practicing right now. I think it's precautionary, but he was not practicing when I was there.

Denzel Ward is still that dude. They just re-uped Grant Delpit. The front is still loaded with good players. by the way. Like it's year two for Mason Graham. Alex Wright is still there. Isaiah McGuire has shown you things. Malik Collins is on PUP.

I need him healthy. I'm hoping he'll be healthy eventually. But you still have five to six really good football players on your front. Quincy Williams is in Cleveland now, which I think has flown under the radar, which maybe he's not the Quincy Williams from Peak Robert Sala, New York Jets. But what I think is interesting is his old linebackers coach from the the New York Jets is his D.C. now. Correct.

Mike Rutenberg, which they love each other, by the way. I want to talk about, I want to talk about Mike Routenberg for a second, which I'll be, I didn't know a whole lot before he took this job. I didn't know him before yesterday, so. Were you, you sound like you were impressed. I want to hear what you have to say and that we can get into it. Mike Routenberg, I just, this, I love, I love the way connections and relationships work in the NFL and the network of everything.

Mike Rutenberg, college coach for a long time, landed in Jacksonville, under Gus Bradley a decade plus ago. Bradley was coming from Seattle. He brings over a QC to Jacksonville by the name of Robert Sala. Robert Sala and Mike Rutenberg worked together in Jacksonville for years. Sala goes to San Francisco where he's the D.C. He brings Rutenberg with him for a year. Routenberg follows him to the Jets.

When Sala's tenure with the Jets blows up, he stays on under Jeff Ulbrick. He follows Jeff Albrick to Atlanta, where he is the Pets. passing game coordinator for a Falcons defense that we all loved watching last year. And when this season was over in Atlanta, he interviewed to be Salas D.C. in Tennessee before Sala chose who? Gus Bradley, who started this whole thing 12 years ago. And so when that doesn't work out for Rutenberg in Tennessee, Todd Munkin, hires him to be

the D.C. in Cleveland. Everything I just said combined with the talent on the Brown's roster, I was just like, I think I think I'm really into this. I think this could be really, really good. And the only, really the biggest thing that gives me pause is the offense might not be any good. And that could put them in some terrible situations. I think it's worth bringing up.

And I think there's one more layer to it. He goes to the team that Kevin Siffansky just left. And the only reason that Kevin Sifanski lost him in Atlanta as the passing game coordinator is because Jim Schwartz didn't want to take the job as the Brown's defensive coordinator. And so there's just so many like the ship's passing in the night. Yeah. And what I think is really cool about. this. So I, Mike Rutenberg is a, that man is a linebacker's coach. It's just a linebacker's coach

through and through. The combination of him and Monkin, I don't think that there is an offensive and defensive play caller combined in any building that has the collective energy that the Cleveland Browns are bringing to the table this year. How that ultimately looks in terms of quality, I have no idea. But there is a vibe there with those two guys as the play callers on either side of the ball. And why I like this is that so up front, they carried over a ton of the defensive staff from last year. They have the same safeties coach who's the past game coordinator. They have the same defensive line coach because what Rutenberg, where he comes from, is that four down attack world going all the way back to it. The reason Kevin Sifansky hired Joe Woods

when he got the job in 2019 was because of what the miners did to them in the playoffs when he was with the Vikings. So that four down attack front, Rutenberg comes from that. world, but you look at what the Falcons did last year in the next kind of evolution of that defensive system, Derek, and it just has nuances and layers of complexity that the Jim Schwartz defenses just didn't. So I think you could make a really solid argument that stylistically, you're still trying to get the same stuff and you're asking the same things of that defensive line. Mason Graham's a perfect example. Mason Graham, it took him a little while to get comfortable playing that way because it takes a lot of young linemen a little bit to really, really,

get accustomed to this system. He finally does in the back half of the season. He changes his body a little bit. Now, by bringing in that scheme and asking him to play the same way, you're building out what you got from him as a rookie while adding a ton of layers on the back end. The Browns last year were down to the bottom of the league and just the

sheer amount of zone pressures that they ran over the course of the season. The Falcons were in the top three. And so they're just going to, it's going to be a little bit stylistic differences while also carrying over a lot of the things that made this defense really good, which I think is cool combination. Right, because when

Schwartz pressures, it's man free, baby. That's all we're getting back there. That's all we're playing. It's, you know, obviously they had the horses for it. And I still think because they have the horses to do that, it'll be a lot of that. But I do think it's what you're saying where like, it'll be more of a blend. And it's a little bit more of keeping offenses on their toes. And I do still think that they've got the horses for it. Like obviously, Devin Bush played pretty well at linebacker for them last year. If Quincy Williams is rejuvenated, he's a better player than that, I think. And obviously, Jared Versus is still really good.

And maybe this is me like buying narratives. I think that there's a chance that Jared versus, you know, gets traded from what might be the best defense in the league. And he's like, that, man. Like, I'm about to go absolutely insanely nuclear. And like he. I think there is some of that. I absolutely think there's something. Coming out of Cleveland has, you know, leads you to believe Jaredverse is really like he's not sulking about not being on the Rams.

He's like grabbing this by the horns and trying to be the heartbeat of this team, arguably. considering they don't have a settled quarterback right now. I'm curious what happens at the nickel spot. It's like a combination of Miles Hardin and Miles Bryant right now. I wonder if we get any Emmanuel McNeil Warren and there over the course of the year. They're playing it pretty close to the vest and what they want the plan for him to be.

Zach Jackson told me yesterday he's been folding it a little bit with like the second and third team at Nickel, but I didn't see any of that yesterday. So that's the one spot where I kind of like, what's going to happen there? but other than that, I feel pretty good about what this defense looks like from top to bottom. And again, I think schematically, I'm really interested in what the Rutenberg version of of this type of system looks like with these players.

One of y'all is going to take Baltimore with the next two-pits. Yeah, I'm just surprised you took him so early. I thought I could get him at like 11 or 12 in a post-Miles Garrett World. I get excited about things and I'd like, I'd rather have the thing I'm excited about, even if there was a couple of options that I could have had instead. but like you don't need me to tell you that Brian Flores is going to have a nasty defense. But it's more exciting to talk about the Browns right now, in my opinion. And I'll feel stupid about that in December when I'm, you know, making sure I got enough money in my bank account to take y'all to dinner.

But it's fine. All right. Let's take one more quick break. And I'm very curious where Derek is going to go here with the first pick of the third round. All right, buddy. You got some options here now based on what Dave just did. A shocking pick, but an exciting one. I really did enjoy that.

I'm trying to figure out if I want to do my shocking pick or pick a team that was like up kind of in the strange last year. Oh, live a little. Come on. Yeah. I think I'm going to do it. This actually, this is where before you say anything, he just wants you to leave as many like safe picks as possible for him. That's not sure. I will say I think I'm absolutely what I want.

Safe pick. They did it last year, but the reason I might not be picking them is I have a little bit of reservations about how real that's going to be this year. I'm going to go with the team that I thought Dave was talking about when he said this team is not all that excited. I'm going to pick the Pittsburgh Steelers. Nice. They were high on my list of considerations too.

Another team I thought and hoped I could get a little bit later. I like this though. I'm like, I buy Patrick Graham, man. Patrick Graham's defenses have always been better than the roster would suggest that that defense should be. And that usually has meant taking the 22nd roster and making them a league average defense or a little bit above.

22nd I think is generous. Probably generous, especially with. last year's Raiders. Like that back seven last year was was was tough. But they're moving now to a Steelers team that like last year was imperfect, especially at the start. But by the end of last year, this Steelers defense was a top 10 defense,

which I was wrong about. I thought that they, it seemed like they just did not have it together early in the season. I was questioning some of the personnel decisions, but they really turned it on. And I really believed in Patrick Graham. And so I think they've got a corner duo that if, I know,

I know Joey Porter Jr. is a little bit unhealthy right now. But him and Jamel Dean are like a really good just press coverage, get in your face, cornerback duo. Jalen Ramsey, if he's playing the nickel, I think can obviously do that as well. Brisker, if he remains healthy, like he really did start to come on last year. I think that that can help them at that spot. And then the front, like, the combination of Derek Harmon taking a step, Cam Hayward still somehow has it, you know, even though he's as old as he is.

Keanu Benton is still explosive. T.J. Watt, like, Yaya Black played okay for them. Nick Herbig, they just paid a billion dollars. Alex Highsmith is still good. Like this team has talent at most, you know, linebacker, I'm still a little bit questionable, but this team has talent. And I trust Patrick Graham, like maybe seven's a little high, but top 10, I would have taken them for sure. I don't think that's crazy at all.

I mean, I think that the only pushback is going to be, I think from Vikings fans are starting a little pissed off right now based on how the last couple years went. We'll talk about the Vikings in a minute. That's the only team that I think based on how the last couple seasons went, it's surprising that they're still available. Like all the other teams in that next tier, I'm not going to give away all the teams I have listed here, but all the other ones we're going to talk about beyond this, I think you could make an argument that the Steelers belong

in the same conversation with them. And I'm with you, Derek, like looking at it, this is EPA per play, right? Then this is the, because I was ready to take the Steelers, so I had my notes. Last three years, not at seven, but I was ready to take them eventually. Last three years, the Raiders finished 16th, 17th,

and 13th in EPA to play on defense. Look at those rosters outside of Max Crosby. You tell me that that should be possible. But even if they did that, even if you were like 16th, we're only picking 15 teams. You could have picked the Raiders and it wouldn't have been that bad of a pick, let alone the tell of the Steelers have. And it was so funny being there.

I was there on the day that they were doing the press conferences for the coordinators. And Patrick Graham twice during his press conference thanked Omar Khan for the players on the team. You could just feel how excited he is to be working with what he has now compared to what the Raiders fronts looked like over the last couple years. I think it's just the thought of these guys are going to be hard to block. It's going to be hard to block these guys. And it's just a very different world than the one that he's been living in recently where he's had to be cobbling it together.

We talked about it in the second we did about Patrick Graham, Derek. This team played with more loaded boxes than any team in football last year because they had to. Like, they just had no other way to hold up against the run. That shit is not going to look the same in Pittsburgh where all the guys you have at front are players that you theoretically have to get four hands on. It's so funny. You look at the Steelers and so many of their players are getting long in the tooth

or are insanely long in the tooth in Cam Hayward's case. Or, you know, like the linebackers aren't as good as their profile and paycheck might suggest. still a really, really talented defense. Like relative to talent, this is one of the more underperforming units of the last few years. And it's just not a hard dot to connect that a DC that we all think really highly of.

We talked about it like a month ago. With this level of talent, I just, I think it's going to be pretty darn good. I'm really looking forward to it. I think it's actually kind of a similar discussion as the one we were having about the Browns where I think a lot of the bones

of what Patrick Graham wants to be are actually in line. Like, if you gave Patrick Graham his druthers, where I'm not pigeonholed or boxed in by what my personnel looks like, like he has been at times, what would my ideal defense look like? It'd be a lot of man and cover two is a change up. That's exactly. He's Jim Schwartz-ish, like quickly. He comes from New England. Yeah.

That's where he comes from. And so I think that is what he would want to be at his core. That's what the Steelers were. And so you're asking guys to do a lot of the same things, but you're adding in just those little layers of complexity that Pittsburgh. just didn't have last year. Two things I'd point out. Last season, the Steelers were a 70% man team team won blitzing.

Only the Browns were higher. I don't think that'll happen again. I think as a pressure team, it'll be a little bit more diversified behind it. I think that we'll see the players up front moved around more than they were last year. Like, T.J. Watt isn't the same player he was a couple years ago,

but you're doing him a disservice by, and he prefers to do this. He prefers to stay on one side. You're doing him in disservice when you know that they're able to chip him the same way every single time. time and account for him. So just a little bit more creativity with that.

And I think just a little bit more built in flexibility from a check perspective. And I think that's one of the number one things that stood out to this team and this group of players to Patrick Graham is like how smart this entire group of guys is because how many veterans we have, they feel further along from the mental side of it a week into camp than I think he's ever felt before as a defensive coordinator. And so you're combining some of the things you can do above the neck with the talent. level you now have while asking guys to do a lot of the same things that they're comfortable with, it's very easy to get excited about this group for like a whole bunch of different reasons.

So what pick was that? That was pick seven? That was six. Yep. So now I have a decision to make because I just never assumed that this team would be on the board as I was picking at eight. I was going to thought I'd be having to pick between a couple other options. This is hard. It's not easy when you have to make the call, is it? Because I just didn't assume they'd be here. shouldn't that make it easy if you didn't think they'd be here because it's there are two teams it's one of those things where you you have an idea of how it's going to go and you attach yourself to that like I thought this is why I don't even show I don't even think eight and so I was like that's the team I kind of want to pick here I'm going to go with the ravens that's that's on

that's on brand I'm going to go with the raivots you could easily make an argument for the vikings right the Vikings been a top five defense in each of the last two years there's a chance that those rookies are just really good players. right away, but it's always a little bit of a question with that. Like, they're really relying on those guys and they're really relying on Dallas Turner. And maybe, maybe it all falls into place. But I think as I currently look at it and the Ravens defense, the secondary injuries are absolutely worth considering here.

And maybe making the selection before we know what's going on with Marlon Humphrey after he left practice today is a mistake. But this is a combination of just gush about Jesse Minner. I like the players enough and like Jesse Mentor is really good at this. I just I actually I was surprised that you guys were as gung ho about saying they were like a firmly top eight team after the way that last year went I thought I wasn't sure if I would be out on a limb alone thinking that they were like a definitively top 10 group with Jesse Minner but I do think that's where I sit with it I mean it it hinges on the health of some of these guys pretty heavily it's and this could bite you in the ass it's it's more fun to assume those guys are going to be useful players like particularly like Matabike I just love watching the guy play football I hope hope he can be part of this. But assuming relatively good health, like the personnel is still good enough. And then every year we see the difference that these sorts of play callers can make for units.

And so, like, betting on Jesse Minters just, it feels like a very safe bet to me. And the Ravens defense wasn't bad last year. They were 17th and EPA for play last year. They just weren't as good as I think that we've seen them be in the past couple years. That's only bad relative to the standard of what the Ravens had done in recent years. And they were pretty banged up last year, actually. Like, obviously with Matt of B.K. But they were pretty banged up.

So you're banged up last year. You finished 17th last year. Do you know who led the Ravens in pressures last season? Was it still Kyle Van Nu? No. It's worse than that. Christ. Travis Jones?

It was Travis Jones. Wow. When you know, led the Ravens in pressures last year, you got 102 snaps from Matabeeke. You had that, off seasons from Marlon Humphrey and a bad first half from Roquan. And so like all of that when you take into consideration, like even if it was just Zach Oregon, we're in a spot where now, instead of having Mike Green, Tabeas Robinson,

Kyle Van Nuoy and whatever, you brought in Zion Young and Trey Hendrickson. You have year two of Mike Green. You've completely remade the interior of the defensive line beyond Matta BK. So the personnel, I think, would have been better independent of whoever was calling plays. The number that jumped out to me trying to put a point on the Jesse Minter part of this, last year per next gen, the Ravens were 23rd in the NFL and EPA precarried aloud on blocked box runs. So you have, they have as many blockers as you have defenders in the box. That's why the Ravens were playing a lot more single high last year than they had previously because they just couldn't

hold up in some of those light box looks. The Chargers last season third in the NFL and EPA per carry allowed on those block box runs. Jesse Minter has just done a really good job of figuring out mechanically how to survive in that world and the players are good enough to do it especially if Madabiki comes back. And so I think for a whole host of reasons, there are a lot of, there's a lot of evidence pointing to the fact that this is a defense that's worth betting on. And so getting them at eight here, that's what I was originally planning on doing. The Vikings part of it, complicated things a little bit and maybe I regret that, but I'm okay with it. I regret nothing because this worked out perfectly.

Because now you get Minnesota. I was torn between Minnesota and Cleveland anyway. And Vikings fans, if you're pissed off, just imagine that I took the Vikings at six and got the Browns at nine. It's all gravy after the fact because that's what I'm doing. I'm taking Minnesota. This definitely feels this feels like a discount. I think it is. It absolutely is. It's understandable how it happens though, right? Because in addition to counting on so many rookies, I think you're left wondering who's going to be the heady presence on the back end that makes such a complex scheme tick,

which weirdly Harrison Smith hasn't retired, but he's not a Viking, so I don't really know what to do with that. I guess we can, you know, we can keep an eye on it. Maybe we should take that as a sign. That it's on the table? No, that they feel good about where they're at.

Or at the very least, you want to get through the grueling part of training camp and see what happens. I mean, my guess for who that guy is going to be is my guy, Josh Mattelis. I mean, it's the most sensible pick just in terms of like guys who, and I guess Byron Murphy as well, either way. Byron Murphy, Josh Mattelis on the back end. We all love the James Pierre signing. And then hopefully one of these younger guys, be it Theo Jackson, be it Jay Ward, I loved Jacoby Thomas as a draft prospect, see what he can bring you as a.

rookie. I think I trust that to gel together at some point, but like it's understandable if you're worried about how well all of those guys are going to pick up and make it hum considering the amount of ridiculous shit that Brian Flores asks of his back seven. And then we already talked about it, but if this, if this defense is going to achieve a ceiling like last year where their third in defensive DVOA, just feel like multiple of these rookies on the front

have to hit right away. way. Like, Caleb Banks has to be a dude. Jake Golda has to be somebody that you can count on to have a role, Dominique Orange, somebody. Because it just feels like you lose a little bit by losing Grenard. I mean, I guess if Dallas Turner is just that freaking guy right off the bat, maybe that doesn't matter on the edge than you were. I mean, the fact that last year when Van Ginkle and Granard were banged up, Dallas Turner was the third edge. Now, beyond Dallas Turner, what are you doing? Are you playing Jake Golday down there? Because that right now, that might be. You might be. You know, be your best option considering like the current makeup of the roster and i i mean jalen redmond is a really good player all the reviews have been that caleb banks looks fantastic and so even moving on from those aging defensive tackles they had last year could we talk ourselves into the interior defensive live play being as good this year for the viking as it was a year ago maybe but you're asking a lot of calabanks in that situation i think that's kind of where i sit you're asking a lot of blank you're asking a lot of blank for this to be as good as it was a year ago and maybe we're at a point that's

where we should be giving Brian Flores the same benefit of the doubt as we're giving some of these other guys, and we probably should be. But I think there are just a lot of contingencies that this hinges on that maybe gave me a little bit more hesitance than some of the other teams that went ahead of the Vikings. That's kind of where I'm at. And I give Flores the benefit of the doubt and the fact that, like, you could give him 11 of you and I and he could get us to league average. So I don't think that they're going to be like a bad defense. I just like them being a consistently top five unit the way that they have last year, it's just, exactly what you said. We're asking a lot of

of rookies or second and third year to step up to be as good as last year. Like that feels like the ceiling is to be as good as last year. And obviously that gets you to the fourth best defense in the league or whatever. But it's not like, I think with some of the other defenses we've talked about, it's like if X happens,

they are better than they were before. And I just don't know if that's true with as much of the Vikings things here. Also, I don't think it's the end of the world if we merely think of the Vikings as a top 10 unit. I was about to say that.

Like, oh, no. Finishing top 10 on defense three years in a row. Yes. It's really, really hard. Yes. Very impressive thing to have done. So it's not some huge shot of disrespect that you think the Vikings might be the ninth best defense in the league this year.

And I want to be clear about this. Just for like all social media situations associated with the show, this is not a ranking. This is a draft. This is not a ranking. So this is not. collectively the athletic football show says the Vikings are the ninth best defense. This is a draft. Just keep that in mind as you look at the list of these teams as they came off the board without context. That's all I'm going to say. I will say I'm excited about every team's

preseason for one reason or another, but the Vikings are so high on my list of teams I want to see in the preseason because when I was putting my board together, you have to like take a deep breath and walk away from the computer when you read some of this shit coming out of Minnesota. Caleb Banks is like Godzilla attacking the city. Dominique Orange and Caleb Banks are going to like man the middle for the Vikings for a decade. And Jake Gold Day is Flores is perfect like can opener player. It's all very exciting. And I just, I can't wait to see what it looks like.

I hope these guys get a lot of snaps in the preseason. And if they look the part, I'm even more excited about this pick than I already am. But it is okay to have a, you know, a hesitant approach with. with the team asking so much of its rookie class. All right. So you're up again now. As we start the fourth round, you're picking again at number 10,

who you got at 10. All right. It was asking too much to think that I was going to get the Ravens and the Vikings in one fell swoop. So that's fine. All right. If I'm picking again, I'm going to do,

I'll do one more that's really just a vote in coaching because we've talked about there's not a, there's not a whole lot new here getting you excited, but the Jacksonville Jacks were a top 10 defense last year. God damn it. Even if they're not as good as they were last year,

there's still plenty there, mainly the front, mainly, you know, Josh Heinz Allen and I believe in Trayvon Walker. I think he's still an ascending player. And Anthony Campanelli, working with all of it. They lose Devin Lloyd. But really, I don't,

like, this is a flawed way to look at it. I understand. stand. But while I was doing this, I was just like, well, if you lose Devin Lloyd, but Travis Hunter is a player, then that's a wash to me, or maybe even a net positive, depending on how good Hunter is. So if he was capable of getting him to sixth and defensive DVOA last year, and it's more or less the same cast, I'm fine making a bet on this. The numbers, obviously, when you're talking about a team that had this, this meant number of turnovers, like the EPA per play versus everything else starts to get a little bit muddy. Even if this team relies on,

on getting a ton of turners last year. They finished ninth in defensive success rate, beyond the turnovers, like down to down. So it's still a really good defense. And when we talk about teams that are able to defend the run out of certain looks and that being the engine that really makes a defense go, this team was second in the NFL last year

and EPA per carry allowed when they had a blocking disadvantage. And I think that to me is a very cool. The team that was number one, I think this is talking about trying to connect the dots with coaching. So the team that finished number one in the NFL last year and EPA per carry allowed at a block. locking disadvantage was the Green Bay Packers,

which is where Anthony Campanile was with Jeff Hathley before he came over to the, for the Jags. And if you look at some of the things that the Jags do in those light boxes, they use a lot of the same structural things and like twists and run stunts that the Packers use. And so that, this to me is why the Campanile defense is so cool. So if you look at Campanile's history, he was in Miami with Flores.

That he was the linebacker coach when Flores got there. And he stayed in Miami. all the way through when Vic was there. And so you have this guy who was there with Brian Flores. He was there with Vic Fangio and then he goes to work with Jeff Hathley in Green Bay before he gets the job here. When you look at the Jaguars defense, it's all of those things. It's all of those things combined into this like it's a lot of too high like umbrella, like a lot of like Cloud. Cover Six type stuff that Fangio was doing.

Their blitz stuff, they'll zero you. they'll do a lot of crazy shit on third down the same way that Flores would. And he has some of the principles that Halfley had. And to do that and kind of pick and shoes all a cart like that and make it feel as cohesive and put together in year one as Campanile did last year, that's why I was just so impressed at the job that he did. And so like you said, even if personnel-wise, they didn't really add anybody, we can talk about some of the things that they'll have this year that they didn't last year. But I'd be fine betting on him here. I really, really wanted to pick the Jags next, so I'm pretty bummed about this. I had them a little bit higher than this.

Like when I picked the Steelers, I almost thought about the Jaguars. And I think there's some part of like, when I look at the roster, I was like, is that really the sixth best defense? So that's why I would have let them slip to about this range, like ninth or tenth probably. But even beyond like some of the specific schematic things that Campanelli is doing, like, you know, some of his umbrella coverages, some of the insane pressures that he's throwing. it's just a defense that when I watch it, it just feels very well taught. Like a lot of guys that you would not expect to be super playmate. Like obviously Josh Heinz Allen is kicking ass and Trayvon Walker looks great, but like Devin Lloyd in year one in the system playing his best football and being as fast as he was downhill in a way that we'd never really seem from him before I thought was impressive.

Monterec Brown being a player who like athletically is whatever. But you watch just where he's going in terms of zone, always knowing where to be, playing his press coverage technique incredibly, well, like the players that you didn't expect to be like really on their piece and cues, I was like, okay, that is a defense where they, they're clearly teaching this well to their players. And that is a thing that I do think kind of carries over year to year. 100% agree. And if you look at the back end, I just think they're better set up to do more things than

they were able to do last year. Because if you want, like, Jari and Jones played well enough last year. He had to play. He played for the entire season. So now he's your backup corner. I think inside and outside. And so if you want to play a little bit more dime and you move one of those guys inside,

whether it's Monterec Brown, Travis Hunter, and you have Jones play outside, or you bring him in as the nickel and you slide one of those safeties down to play dime, they go three deep at safety now. I think we'll see more Ransaw than we did last year. And like you said, what does the Travis Hunter element of this bring to the defense?

I think the two things that, beyond how it's all put together, that can elevate the Jags this year, is Trayvon Walker taking a step that we've talked about and Travis Hunter being a really high-end corner. If you drop those two things into what the Jags were already doing last year, I do think that that helps overcome the one loss that you had being Devin Lloyd. The one thing that gives me pause,

and it doesn't mean that they couldn't be a good defense without it, but, I mean, we talk about turnover variance, and obviously they were so good at takeaways last year. I got this from the FTA and Almanac. they recovered 70% of their fumbles last year. So like it's not as if they forced the shitload of fumbles and just had average turnover luck. They recovered like every fumble they forced last year. That's the third highest number in the last decade.

And you have an offball linebacker who had five interceptions. And he's not there anymore, by the way. The odds that they do that again are not good. Doesn't mean they can't be a good defense. But that was a really big component of their success last year. and when I saw that number, 70%, it made me a little nervous. That's when you have a crazy amount of turnover. The fumble variance typically goes in your direction.

But again, I think that the fact that they were ninth in defensive success rate last year, the only real thing, the only real area where there was a huge gap for them between success and EPA, which it can be explained for a lot of things. It's third downs, and so there's just more variance there. It's when they were blitzing. So they were league average in success rate when blitzing. They were second in EPA per dropback. But other than that, when you look at it like situationally,

I don't think there's a huge difference between what the EPA and success rate looks like for them last year. And to me, that is a, even if we had a lot of turnovers and we feasted on them, down to down, this was still a really good defense. All right. I really was hoping I could get the Steelers at 11. I wasn't sure if you guys would be as excited about the Steelers. And so that was the team I kind of had circled at 11. I'm going to do my first kind of surprise pick here,

because I think there are probably people that think this team would be lucky to finish in the top half of the league defensively. I'm going with a Buffalo Bills. Okay. I think this was one of like the handful of teams. I thought like somebody's going to take a swing and believe in the outside. That's where I'm at.

Your choices correspond with your, the drum beats that you've been, that you've had for a lot of the summer. I'm not terribly surprised to hear this. Where do you think the bills finished in EPA for play defensively last season? Like 20th? Yeah, I probably would.

guess something about, well, they were weird because like it was a lot of explosives. So I, it might have even been worse than that. I don't know. 13th. Okay. That's not that bad. That's not that bad. 13th. And I do think they're bringing back all the same like important pieces to the defense. The personnel did not get worse. It's not as if they lost the players that allowed them to be 13th. And now you're

asking Jim Leonard to be the one that's doing all this heavy lifting to make up for that. No, like the bills were. were firmly on my radar for the record. Like the personnel is solid. They've made some interesting additions. And we've already talked about the play caller bump on this show with a couple other teams. So if Jim Leonard's good at his job with what the bills have to offer, it would be easy to make

the case that they could go higher. Like I don't think this is a crazy pick at all. I could easily see them being like a top 10 defense that kind of sneaks up on us a little bit just because there's so much variance when you're changing the way that you play to the degree that they're going to be changing the way that they play. And I think I'm just willing to bet on the positive side of that variance. And I think I should be more than I have this offseason. I think I still have like a, even though like I think Jim Leonard is a good play caller.

Like when he was at Wisconsin, like I remember studying their backers and Keanu Benton and being like, this guy's got it. How long it takes for him to get to the NFL and all that stuff. Who knows? Obviously he's there now and had done a good job in Denver with fans Joseph. But I think I still have memories of how back. they were tackling last year and some of the explosives they gave up that it's hard for me to fully get over that even if it is a new system i don't know how much this matters did you hear him this

week yeah he was like we're tackling he's like he like came out and said like i can't wait to see our team tackle because they were not good at that last year hell yeah because like schematically i don't think sean like sean mcdermott's defense wasn't the most insane thing in the world but like schematically it wasn't perfect but it was sound and good in a lot of ways there's just the back end was just small and could not tackle anyone at all. And I do think that if they can fix that, that does kind of show up a lot of the issues that they had last year. And there are some guys where that size is going to show up, right?

Like, Terrell Bernard is going to be probably the smallest offball linebacker in the NFL again. Like, there are guys that just, it still sticks out to you, the lack of size and physicality at some spots on this defense. But overall, like, even if there's some square peg kind of round hole concerns with some of the guys they're asking to do something that's a little bit, bit different. I still feel like there's enough talent here. And if we have just like a difference making play caller coming into this situation and this defense can just feel a little bit more chaotic complimentary than it has over the last couple of years, I don't know. I think there's

something here. I think the bills are a great example of how quickly things can change on you if you're not paying attention because it's so easy. Obviously, McDermott's gone and that's huge. But like, it's so easy. You just have this mental image of the bills. And like they were so veteran for so long. And, and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poirer played there forever. And like some of the older,

some of the old guard is still there. Like Christian Benford and Terrell Bernard and Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. Like some of those names. But even those guys like Christian Benford was drafted in 2022. It's only been a few years. 22's ancient history at this point. But like even still, there are so many like new fresh faces on this defense.

that have no idea. They weren't there for 13 seconds. They weren't even in college for 13 seconds at this point. And it's when there's so much continuity with an organization, it's easy to like gloss over that fact. But then you dive into it. And it's way more exciting than I think it looks at first glance when you're just thinking about what you know about Buffalo.

I mean, we'll see what happens with Maxwell Harrison holding up over the course of an entire season and what this team, what this scheme asks him to do. I just, I'm curious enough about how different this is going to look and the potential benefits of that to take Buffalo in a spot like this where I think there's a lot of teams really jumbled up. And again, the two teams that I anticipated picking here were the Jags and the Steelers. I was hoping I could get them at 11. And with both of those gone, I'm okay with this. D. Alford and Chauncey Gardner Johnson being in this secondary is exciting to me.

One of the guys that just like nothing but good reviews from what the camp has looked like so far in the offseason is D. he was awesome last year it's and it was a big price tag relative to how like how much good football he's played but he was he was awesome last year they really did seek him out and for a couple different reasons i think that's because he kicked their ass on national yeah i mean yeah i mean but i think it's it's what that scheme asks him to do with like a lot of the matchy principles that the palkins had that's a nickel that you feel a lot more comfortable holding up in man or man like situations he showed a consistent ability to do that in Atlanta it's now what's around john was by the end of his time there. And so they needed a different sort of skill set. And this is actually what I thought was interesting is that, so that smaller nickel now,

we're going away from those smaller nickels. But in part because teams can get them in the run fit if you're going to play all this nickel and you can pick on those guys a little bit. The Broncos, because they had these smaller nickels, like DeQuahman Millen's not a big player, they have a lot of mechanisms built into the defense and how they react to certain motions

to try to keep that player out of the fit as much as possible. And so Jim Leder just came from a place where they've built an elite run defense with an undersized nickel consistently over the last few years that I think minimizes or marginalizes how much of a concern that should be with the player like D. Alford stepping into this system. So even little things like that where it's like I think even if this seems like it might be a problem. All right, well, we're we have a way to account for that now. And so I'm just, I'm really interested to see what this group looks like with Jim Lennard over the course of a year. All right. So that's the 11th pick. Derek, you were up at 12 here with the last pick of the third round.

What do you got? I think I'm going to go back to a tried and true defensive play caller here. And this is taking a chance on some rookies, but I'm going to take the Kansas City Chiefs. They were literally my 12th team. So you've been watching those Peter Woods highlights, huh? Buddy. And I was as high as anybody could be coming out of the draft.

I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but you're looking very vindicated for your Peter Woods. leave right now. Right. He hasn't played yet. I don't know how good he's actually going to be, but I liked him. And then the camp talk is that he's as good as we were hoping he would be. So my hype there is is continued. Like, I think that he can give that front the juice that it needs. Tonga, I think can be a really big piece for them in terms of just being able to play the nose and like hold up. They have not really had a player like that next to Chris Jones since like, I mean, Derek Nottie played decent in that role like four years ago, but it's been, I think a long time since they've had someone who has been a long time since they've

had like a can you just hang here and and be a really good player that way. I'm still a little bit worried about the edge stuff. You know, you hope that our Mason Thomas is going to give them something. But I do think that like even though it's a lot of rookies and young players in the back end, obviously Mansour Delane, Noel Williams stepping into a role, them changing stuff out like Hicks is leaving, or Brian Cook is leaving Alohi Gilman coming in. There's a lot of change, but I think I just trust Steve Spagnolo with a little bit more juice. And I trust what his vision is supposed to be for this retooled secondary than maybe getting a little bit bigger,

playing a little bit more man, that I'm just like, I'm going to ride with a guy that I've seen do this before. I completely understand that. I chase the shiny new object with the new system and new play caller in Buffalo. You're chasing the shiny new objects with the rookies. Yes.

Yeah, it's literally, that's the choice you made. I was between those two, and that's ultimately how it shook out. It literally is just like, do you want to roll with the new players or the new coaches? And I think, And I will say too, I think a lot of my philosophy with the teams that I picked is like I, a lot of times get very player focused.

And obviously I just said at the top of this that like I'm taking them because I trust Spagnolo. But the reason that I picked the Texans first overall is because I think it's players focused. The reason that I might have taken the Rams over the Seahawks is I think that that's like the talent is just insane on that team. And so I think I'm just trusting the injection of talent here on top of I've seen this coach do it before. I don't blame you at all. Again, I had them at 12. I think you can easily make an argument they should be higher than that

if the rookies end up being like the sort of impact players it sounds like they have a chance to be but I was picking between the bills and the chiefs at 11 and so I completely understand this. I really hate the position that this puts me in

because this is my last pick right? This is your last pick. So there's half a dozen boring teams that all right boring sounds harsh but there's half a dozen teams that you could reasonably expect to like be a top 15 defense top half of the league defense and just like oh yeah

good good pick Dave that's nice or I can chase the dragon one more time and I think it I'm gonna do it because it's more fun and we talk too much about how much we like the guy to just have no faith that it could be any better I can't believe you're gonna do this because I was going to do this at 15 I want the New York Giants oh wow Wow. Oh, okay. You'll see. We'll see.

Well, we'll find out. I like Dynard Wilson. And they have a lot of fun talent. And surely three years in a row, they can't be awful after having preseason expectations. Right? Right? At least the play caller is different. So there's a reason that it would be better.

So you can get me there. There are so many fun players on the front seven of this defense. And a little bit of that is wish casting. with Rvel Reese, obviously, but the edges are incredibly good players. Losing Dexter Lawrence is a big deal, but I think they've done enough to plug that up that I'm at least not going to lose sleep about it. Same exact thing could be said for Tremaine Edmonds. I'm not trying to sell him as some top-tier linebacker, but I think the middle of this

defense is functional, and I think they have a lot of bodies with which Dynard Wilson can do fun, goofy shit on the back end. And I hate myself for saying it, but maybe this time it'll actually work and all of this talent on the Giants defense will pay off. They, they deserve to be picked 15th, but I don't have the 15th pick. So I'm going to take them 13th and God help me. I did not anticipate the Giants being one of the teams that was drafted.

I just, Abdul Carter and Brian Burns. I'm just so scarred. The Giants, not even scarred because I, every off season for the last two or three years, there has been, talk about drum beats, there has been such a chorus of like, man, the Giants defense, like that front, the Giants defense. And my pushback always has been like,

I'd like to see it first. And that's still where I sit. And I might be late because of that. Like this might be the year because of DeNard Wilson, because of some of the stuff where it happened. Darius Alexander's had a nice camp. But things like that. Maybe R. Vell Reese just supercharges this thing.

But the back end is still. pretty unsettled. Like, right now, it seems like they're cycling in like four different guys for those outside corner spots. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe Colton Hood is better than any corner they've had over the last couple years. But this is just a team where I've been so, I've kept the hype at arm's length so many years in a row that I'm just going to continue to do that.

And if it means that I'm a half step late and appreciating the Giants defense, I think I can live with that. I think I'll reconcile it by saying that they're my last pick. I'm picking them to be a middle of the pack. defense. I wouldn't pick them to be a top 10 defense. But like, I don't know, I'd like to think Dinard Wilson can get them to like 15 or 16, in which case, this will age fine. I, clear, I hate myself for doing this. I really do. But Abdul Carter is awesome. Brian Burns is awesome. Arvel Reese was one of my favorite players in the draft. Like, again, at the end of the day,

it's just more fun to pick the thing that you're intrigued and excited by. Oh, wait until I'm about to do. I don't think I would have picked them but I think the difference between us doing I mean we weren't doing it I think last year we were pretty clear-sighted about like I don't know if this roster is as good as it seems but the part of the roster that people were excited about was like if the pass rush is good everything else will be good

well the pass rush was exactly as good as it was supposed to be like Abdul Carter was incredible Brian Burns was incredible Kavon Thibodeau I think even had his best season it's just that everything else was so bad that it kind of didn't matter I do think that you can see the world where everything else is good enough that you actually do get the value out of the past rush this time. 100%. This absolutely could be the year where it all comes together.

I'm just in a spot where I'm just like, it's funny because statistically, like the Titans past defense was atrocious last year. Like, Dinard Wilson did not have the magic sauce enough to turn that into a respectable unit. The magic sauce is called Brian Burns and Abdul-Carter. That's what he did not have last year or any corners. I was going to say last year, we debate how good. good the corners are on the giants. Last year's Titans were, I mean, there's a reason they spent

a half a billion dollars on corners this year. It's wimpy to talk about how much you like and respect DeNard Wilson and then not be willing to do this. Well, listen, buddy, we're on the same page here with what I'm about to do at 14. The two teams I should take here, and I will put those out there, just based on what these teams did last year and what I think they can do this year. The New England Patriots. Sure. So many of the numbers to the Patriots defense, last year were really impressive situationally. In defined passing situations, the Patriots finished first an EPA drop back last year with a success rate of 34%, which is the second best in the NFL.

There's plenty of like really impressive Patriot stats from a year ago. And now Zach Kerr full year as a defensive coordinator, I should take the Patriots here. The New Orleans Saints. Brands Daly did a phenomenal job last year with that group, even if there might be some talent concerns. Thought hard about the Saints. Those are the two teams that I think deserve to be mentioned, even if they do not get picked. I'm picking neither of those

because I'm picking the Dallas Cowboys. Oh my God. It's too big of it. I mean, that's fair. Actually, it's not that big of a jump considering the Giants were not far off of that territory. I'm picking the Dallas Cowboys. I suppose when you put it back all of his favorite coaches in this exercise. Which is not even really what I meant to do.

I like, to be clear, like I would have taken the Seahawks. But that's partially Mike McDonnell. It's not like a coach-driven thing. I took the Broncos at five. That's like a player-driven thing. plus everything else. The Ravens, I really do feel like I have a chance to be like a top five-ish defense this year beyond whatever the Jesse Mentor situation is. And who else did I take at 11?

Oh, that's just not even a coach thing. That's just like a stylistic thing. No, I'm mainly meant. Let's ride. McDonald, McDonnell, McDonald, Minner, and now Christian Parker, though, like those are absolutely your guys. The Christian Parker thing is a fly planting thing. That's fine.

That's very much a, I can't talk about this the entire offseason and then just be a coward when it all comes down to it. It's also the 14th pick. Maze to the Bears is me to the Cowboys. Like, I just don't, I don't even want to touch the Cowboys because I worry that it'll disappear into a puff of smoke. So I'm happy to let you have this. The two leading snap getters for the 2025 Dallas Cowboys were Donovan Wilson and Kenneth Murray,

who are not currently on NFL rosters. That's not great. The three corners not named Durand Blan to get 400 plus snaps for the Cowboys last year, Kair Elam, Trayvon Diggs, Reddy Stewart. Yep. Trayvon Diggs not on a team right now. Kair Eelam and Reddy Stewart are three spots down their respective depth charts. They went out and obviously, again, you're going to be rying on rookies a little bit with Malachi Lawrence,

Caleb Downs part of this. This is me just projecting Caleb Downs having like a Cooper DeGine-esque impact on this team immediately in order for this to come together. But I believe that has a chance to be true. I think that the part of this that I feel most rooted in like the willingness to do this is that it's not just the splashy things. It's that they also remade like connective tissue parts of this roster that I think will go underappreciated and why the team overall will feel different.

When you look at the most important things the Cowboys did this offseason, guys like Jonathan Bullard and Otita Ogbonia are not going to be mentioned here. Those guys understand how to play the run in this system. Like that being like the second wave of players where Jonathan Bullard was raised. in this defense. He got drafted by Vic Fangio. We played for Brandon Staley last year. Oboni was with the Chargers and Jesse Minter.

And so you have these guys that two or three lines down the depth chart can contribute to this just feeling like a more buttoned up grown-up NFL defense combined with splashy things like Jalen Thompson, Quinn Williams for a full season, Caleb Downs now. So I really do, and we talked a little bit about, uh, fuck, what's his name? Rookie? Kobe Durant. Five, four, three, two, one. Talked a little bit about Kobe Durant and the players who could swing the season thing. Like, every year, there is a defense that comes out of nowhere to be one of the best defenses in link. It happens every single year.

The Jaguars were the worst defense in professional football two years ago, and they were a top five defense by a ton of metrics last year. This happens every single season. And I am making a bet that it could be the Dallas Cowboys this year. And even a more realistic one for the spot where this team finished last year and where we're kind of drafting them to finish this year. The Atlanta Falcons finished 12th in DVOA last year, and they were 29th the year before. That's kind of the bet that you're making.

It happens, yes. It can happen. That's the thing. Some of these picks feel crazy, but like there's going to be a team that we leave off that is going to make this jump. That was, you know, 25th last year. It might be the Patriots if you don't take them in 15. Right, exactly.

It's going to be some team that does that, and I totally get that. So I, this was a team that I did not necessarily have on my radar because I think I was just a little bit scared of doing that with them. Though I did have one other team I considered kind of making a similar jump, but I, you can get me there. You have the last pick. I'm not going to take them.

I thought about really hard the Tennessee Titans. I think that there's a chance that Robert Sala just like wheels up ready to go. That would have never crossed my mind, but I like it. I see the logic. I did not write them down, but they were a team where I was like, should I have the Titans in here? And I was like, no, I'm okay.

And there's the reason I kind of got to them was obviously they were bad last year. And the, you know, the Cowboys made a lot of changes too. But like you look at the Titans too deep, it is like 50% turnover, if not more. Like it is completely Robert Solace defense, which is the reason I might have taken them there. So before I actually make my choice, are we 14 picks through and did nobody pick the Chargers at all? No one picked the Chargers. I think with my last pick, I would like to do that. I do think that they will be worse without Jesse Minter.

Like everything that we said about Jesse Minter in the Raven section, I think absolutely holds true. And I think that he was a really, really good play caller. I still think at a certain point, this defense has enough talent to be like a slightly above average defense because they didn't really lose a whole lot. And I do have some amount of faith that, you know,

O'Leary had been in the system before, Harbaugh doing this thing where he's like, go take your year abroad, come back. Like, I think it's a mix. of inherent faith in like the Harbaugh system and organization and foundation and them still having players that I like.

Like Tully is still really good. I think the D-line has some talent. Like Henley, I assume is going to hopefully play better this year. Denzel Perryman is my favorite player in the league and he's still back there going to give them good rundown. So like it's an imperfect roster and I think if we were ranking defenses,

they would not make my top 10. But if I'm picking them at 15th, I think I feel pretty good about where we're at. Yeah, I absolutely should have mentioned them as one of the teams I should pick instead of the Cowboys. Like the Patriots, the Chargers are probably number one and two there. Like I literally had them like 12th on my list of teams, but I'm just making a point by picking Dallas at 14 here. So you're getting no pushback. They should absolutely be in the top 15 and probably should have been drafted a little bit higher,

even if you're talking about a first year coordinator. It's not fair. They're a team that's easy to overlook because outside of Akeem Mesidor, who is an unknown, there's not much in the way of personnel ads and they changed play callers. And you would assume, even if Chris O'Leary's really good, you would assume there's going to be a learning curve. And so it's just kind of easy to not think about them,

but that doesn't mean they'll be a bad defense at all. Where I come back to with this is that it's one of those teams that I just wonder how many elite players are here still. And Jesse Minter was able to make the ninth best defense in the league out of non-elite players. I think that's really hard to do. And I just wonder if a new defensive coordinator can do that. Like if you're going to play the same sort of style of defense, right?

Like I think you can make a similar, like, I think people would look at me saying that and be like, well, what about the bills? How many elite players do the bills have? Well, the bills are now going to play a style of defense. It reminds me of Atlanta last year, where it's just like, if you can kind of make a mess of this, I think that there's just potentially more variants associated with it. The charters don't play that way. And so I think it just, I have a harder.

time seeing it with a first team with a first time coordinator there than I would in a lot of other situations because I just have still reservations about what the high end talent looks like for this team. And that's again, like I don't really think that the ceiling for this team is, I think even in the best case scenario, probably like the seventh or eighth best in the defense and the league at the very, very tippy top. I just like last year the Colts were 15th in DVOA. I would be shocked if they're a worse defense than that. Like that's kind of where I'm Matt with my thought process here. They just feel like the safe get me on base pick.

Charlie should have gone higher. You have nothing to apologize for here. The fact that they were still available at 15 is there are reasons for that, but I think you're in the right for scooping them up here and having that be it. They just feel boring as the last pick, which is not what I wanted to do, but it's where we arrived. It's funny you brought up the Colts because that would be, that was one of my first teams off.

I talked to Derek while you were out on the road about the difference that a healthy, sauce and Charvarius Ward could make for that team like if they actually play the full season which we really barely got to see them play together i'm so scared of the edge room on that team i'm so scared it goes a long way if you have excellent secondary play i it's harder for me to play that game that way rather than the other way around i if those if those two guys are healthy and playing well i'm i'm pretty excited about the colts not excited enough to pick them obviously but I just wanted to say that. At this time of year, just the amount of sheer amount of time I spend looking at depth charts,

I'm just sitting here closing my eyes looking at, if you pull up the cold step chart right now, I got it in front of me. The first player listed at one of the edge spots, literally among the hole too deep, is Arden Key. How dare you talk about. Great depth player. Right. Is that right? Yeah.

He's the first player listed on the cold step chart. That's like how my brain works these days. And so he's the first player listed. I'm just like, I don't know how I feel about that. And he, and that's the thing. He's been a good player now for the last handoff. of years as like a, you know, situational, useful pass-drusher, but he's like the perfect player to articulate that like if he's got to come off the bench for you or if he's got to

start four weeks in the middle of the season, awesome to have. If that's where you're at week one, then I have a little bit more questions about where your team is that. Bingo. That's exactly where I am. If the Colts had Troy Hendrickson, wheels up, let's go. Mm-hmm. But they don't. 100%. And so I'm a little bit more worried about that. I'm surprised neither of you guys picked Patriots. Patriots I would have been eyeing here. Them I am. So we've done the whole schedule thing with the Patriots and stuff on both sides of the ball.

I think it really applies less to their offense. Like Bill Barnwell did a piece on it. The schedule of defenses they played was not really like abnormally bad. They played a lot of terrible quarterbacks last year. And I do think that they were doing a lot of interesting stuff. And I really do think they turned it up towards the end of the season. They were really healthy. They were good in the playoffs when they were playing the good teams.

They were good in the playoffs. But they were really, really healthy last year, which, like, that was the only time in Carlton Davis's career he had played 17 games. Yeah. Like, I just, like, I think they are for as much as with the offense, I'm like, I don't need to see it again. I believe that they're going to be elite. The defense, I like a lot of what they did. I think I do want to see it again, though, before I'm like fully wheels up with them being that kind of team. You have the picks?

I do have the picks. Derek, Texans, Eagles, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers, Robert, Seahawks, Bronzer. Broncos, Ravens, Bills, Bills, Cowboys, Dave, Rams, Browns, Vikings, Jaguars, Giant. One of the bills of the Cowboys is just going to, we'll see, and destroy me. Jim Leonard would never do that to you. He's going to destroy me. Derek very smartly just took the good teams, and you and I are enamored with long shot bets. Like, that's the problem here.

And maybe it'll work, but I'm not going to be surprised if Derek just very solidly made all good decisions, and we each made at least one or two shitty ones. But defense is so weird every year. Like last year was more consistent, but defense is so weird. Like this is the place to be crazy and do some wild shit that doesn't seem to make sense. I,

you know, the Patriots are probably going to be really good on defense. There are a couple other teams that fit that description as well. But yeah, I'd rather get weird with it and see what happens. I think on this show, it took an unbelievable amount of discipline

to not look at teams like the Titans and be like, I'll take them instead of the charges. I do think, though, when we do this for the offenses, I feel like that's going to be a little bit more me being like looking at the green goblin mask and doing something stupid.

There are a lot of offenses this year that would coach you to do that. Typically each year you just pick the same offenses. There are a couple of Chase the Dragon offenses this year that we're going to have to sort through. And by the way, we'll be doing that next week. Same sort of idea. All right, that is all we've got for today.

Quick reminder, September 1st, Lincoln Hall, in Chicago, live show. Winspool draft. Really excited about the live show. Love doing the first one. Please get your tickets. If you were interested in coming, we would love to see all of you.

We'll do some Q&A after. We'll be hanging out after. We'd love to meet everyone that comes through. So please, September 1st, Tuesday, 7ish p.m. 7.30 p.m. start time. If you're interested in that, please grab tickets. You can get them on the Lincoln Hall website. The link is in the description below,

wherever you listen to your podcast. For now, that is all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard,

please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.