The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Eight potential out-of-nowhere units on offense and defense

Episode Date: August 12, 2025

Last year at this time, no one was expecting much from the Commanders offense or the Broncos defense. By the end of the season, they were among the units that defined 2024. Which units can pull off the same feat and come from out of nowhere to carry their teams this season. Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen point to eight candidates—four offenses and four defenses—on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Rundown (timestamps are approximate)4:52 Cowboys offense13:33 Titans offense24:43 Raiders offense34:31 Panthers offense46:35 49ers defense52:52 Cardinals defense1:04:50 Colts defense1:11:20 Patriots defenseHost: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays doing something we haven't done in the past today. Instead of doing a top 10 defenses show, where I think a lot of the teams are going to be ones that we often talk about, we're going to pick what my favorite element of those top 10 shows were and just do an entire show composed of that. We're going to take teams that finished outside of the top half of the league last year in offensive or defensive efficiency.

You pick your metric, DVOA, EPA per play, whatever. and we're going to try to find the ones that can be the out of nowhere top 10 units for this season. There were several of them last year, right? Who is this season's Denver Broncos on defense? Who is this season's Washington commanders on offense? We tried to identify like eight-ish candidates to take that sort of leap and really surprise some people as top 10 units on both sides of the ball. So let's get to that conversation with me and Derek Klesson right now. It's out of nowhere offenses and defenses today, Derek.

We're not doing top tens this year for a few different reasons. I just wanted to kind of drift away from that. We've done fewer lists on the show overall as part of our offseason programming. But when we used to do top 10 offenses and defenses, to me the best part of those shows was picking like the two or three units that had no business as part of the conversation, the ones that weren't the easy teams to land on. And so this show is essentially, it's like when you eat a cupcake and it's only, the top on the, with only the part of the top with the frosting.

Like, that's what we're doing here. We're just doing solely the best part of something we already enjoyed. So we're going to throw out, I don't know, six, eight units that are going to come out of nowhere potentially, our candidates to be top 10 units this year on offense and defense. Listen, man, we've done months and months of offseason content. I think we get a little bit of, let's just have the icing. Let's just have some fun here. I'd love doing this because, again, every year where it's, I think you had the Lions

last year in your top 10. I did. I had the Panthers in my top 10 defenses. And defenses is easier. And I think we'll talk about that today because there's just more volatility. Like there are more defenses that are going to surprise you from season to season than offenses typically, even though last year is kind of an exception. But most of the time, there are more defenses. They're going to be able to jump from the bottom half of the league into the top 10. So we each had one of those last year. And so that's what this entire show is going to be. Just teams that we think could make a big leap and surprise some people as top 10 units on either side of the ball. Let's start with offenses.

I'm curious who your first candidate is here to jump from, let's say, outside of the top 15 into the top 10 and you pick your metric, whatever you want it to be. Yeah, my first one is definitely cheating because the quarterback missed half the season, but they had a million problems even when he was out there. The Dallas Cowboys, to me, feel like I'm still kind of buying it. one. It's the cheapest one. I want to start with the cheapest one so we can get to the fun ones later. You know, I got to let I got to get off my, my Dak Prescott love beforehand. But he's like, when he's healthy and has like literally anyone other than CD Lamb to throw to, I think we've seen

that they're a top eight passing offerance pretty much year in and year out. I expect the offensive line to take some degree of jump just because I think they have a lot of young, interesting players, but also they have now hired Clayton Adams. So I think we are both excited about and really loved a lot of what he did in Arizona. So if he can fix the run game, they were one of the worst run games in the NFL last year. Even when DAC was healthy and had the threat of the passing attack, they were terrible. And so if they can at least, you know, the blocking can be a little bit better. Maybe that feels like a more cohesive unit. The concepts are a little bit more interesting. The floor of the offense raises. And then I think the ceiling is raised by hopefully healthy

Dak Prescott. CD Lamb when he's playing is a top five NFL receiver probably still. And then they now brought in George Pickens, who is pretty clearly the best Cowboys wide receiver two in like three or four seasons, which I think really goes along with. Since Michael Gallup was like actually Michael Gallup, it has been that long. Which was what? 2020. Yeah, it's been a long time. Yeah, it's been a long time. It's been a long time, exactly. It has been a good chunk of time since this team had like a real boundary X receiver for Dak Prescott to just like throw stop routes and perimeter throws to the type of which he wants to throw. Like he wants a guy that he can just give those opportunities. And I think there are a few players with that archetype more than George Pickens has it. And so I'm excited for that. Like I think the volatility of George Pickens has to play into what you gave up for him. Like there's real downside to that move, but there's also real upside to it. So DAC, those two pass catchers, Jake Ferguson is like a complimentary third pass catcher. I think you can easily talk yourself into that. For me, this is all about what happens with the offensive line. Like that is going to determine what drives this offense.

You already have Tyler Guyton missing a good chunk of time. Terrence Steel is already banged up at right tackle. They don't have very good tackle depth on this team. Robert Jones, who was their guard depth, he's going to miss a huge chunk of time. So if Guyton can get back and if we can see a step forward from him and a couple of the younger guys, if Tyler Booker hits the ground running, I'm with you. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we woke up on Halloween and this was the eighth best offense in the league.

Yeah, it's definitely banking on a young offensive line, which that's always scary. I mean, I think we tried to do that with the Jets last year. And for a number of reasons that I don't think was necessarily the offensive lines fault that all fell apart. But I think those other factors I don't expect to necessarily be an issue in Dallas with, you know, the way the quarterback and the way the offense I think is going to be structured. The last thing I do want to say that does have me excited. And I think is the reason I've really bought in a little bit more on the George Pickens move. Over the last, I think two seasons, we've gotten a lot more of C.D. Lamb playing outside. And he's been really, really good at that.

It's been like the huge development in his game is he's gone from mostly a slot player to a guy who's played a lot outside more and gotten better at it than he was early in his career. At the same time, he's still better when he's from the slot. Like, he's just better on all those deep crossers and those seam routes and stuff like that. And so if we can have a guy like George Pickens

where we just feel really comfortable that he can be our ex and we don't need C.D. Lamb to do as much of that. I think that's how you get a little bit back to accessing some of the explosive potential in the passing offense that I think they really struggled to find last year and even at certain points to the year before, even though I know they were still a very good offense.

Two things I want to mention about this team before we move on. There's been something that's come up a lot in conversation. And I think as I've listened to a lot of fantasy content over the course of the last few weeks, getting ready for like my own fantasy drafts, you know, people I really love and people whose information is fantastic. There's just been kind of this blanket assumption that this team is going to throw the ball a ton.

And I understand that based on what they've done over the last few years under McCarthy and the fact that Jaden Blue is potentially their best running back. But I also think there's some signal to kind of push us in a slightly different direction. Like adding Clayton Adams as your offensive coordinator and what that is going to potentially do to the run game, that's something I would pay attention to. And also the last time we saw Brian Schottenheimer as an offensive coordinator, like when he was in Seattle, those teams were incredibly run heavy. And I know that was probably some peak Carroll driving that sort of offensive identity. But, and let's, listen, maybe they throw the ball 62% of the time and this all seems silly.

But I think there's enough to make us believe that they may not be that past heavy given some of the moves they made this offseason and given the history of Schottenheimer as a play caller when we've actually seen him in that role. I kind of agree. I kind of agree with you. And I think one, you have the precedent, right? Like we've seen Dak Prescott operate an offense like this and operated at a very high level. And also when your other major move this off season in terms of player personnel is getting a wide receiver, I think it's very easy to make the assumption that we're just going to throw the piss out of the ball. I'm kind of with you though. I wouldn't be surprised if with bringing Clayton Adams, you draft a guard in the first round, that they want to be, you know, I think

the passing concepts would look different, but in terms of balance and what they're trying to be, like something closer to the Sean Payton Broncos, like that more style of trying to find balance in the offense. So again, there's a chance. that they're just throwing the hell out of the ball and their fourth in passing attempts by the end of the year. And maybe, again, maybe the defense actually forces them into that more than the offensive play calling. But I do think that there's a chance that there are a much more balanced unit than it feels like they should be when you look at the running back talent. That's probably what I would say. I think more balanced than it might seem at first glance.

I wouldn't be shocked if that's how it ended up settling. I was just looking at the numbers while you were talking. In 2020, the Seahawks were 19th in pass rate, just in rushing rate overall. in 2019, they were sixth. So mixed bag. It was actually below average rate last time we saw Schotenheimer as a play caller. So it's not like his entire Seattle tenure was like that.

And I think just overall, the offense is going to feel more dynamic than it's felt in years past when it was a little bit more static under McCarthy. I think we're going to see more motion. I think we're going to see a lot more dynamic run concepts overall. Like getting a fullback involved, the way they're going to use the tight ends in the run game,

I think is something that is going to be interesting and different. And the last part of this, I do think is notable with the Tyler Guyton injury specifically. Clayton Adams is somebody that when they went to Arizona, they had this really diverse run game. They were doing all this different stuff, all these gap scheme runs. They didn't know they were going to do that heading into that season. That's something they learned over time. And I think that's the case with a lot of offensive line coaches and run game coordinators. You come into a year thinking, all right, this is my background.

These are the things I want to do. and then you learn about your personnel as it goes. That may be more than anything is why the Tyler Guyton injury sucks. Because when I was there on July 25th, talking to them about what they wanted the structure of the run game to look like, I think the answer truthfully was we're not sure yet. We haven't seen these guys in pads. We don't know what they can do. And now you're missing all of that experimental time with Guyton specifically.

And so I think the fact that they're not going to be able to work out some of those kinks, really be able to learn about their players, figure out what they do well. I think that's going to set this run game back a little bit as they head into the season just because this is year one under this regime. And that's especially troubling with a player like Guyton, right, where coming out of college and then even after one year of NFL play, I don't think even if they watched every snap of him coming into this offseason, I don't know if you could have had a good idea of what you thought that he was going to be.

Whereas I think, you know, I don't know, you look at the chargers with Joe Alton. And it's like if a new run game coordinator had come in there, you know what you can get out of Joe Alt. Whereas I think with Guyton, it was always going to be more of a, we still need to wait and see. And so it is pretty unfortunate that they're not going to get him, especially again, next to a bunch of other younger players on that offensive line. Like the rest of the interior is basically like, I don't know, the oldest guy is what, Tyler Smith is probably 25, 26. Like it's a very young unit. Yeah. And I think with Guyton's movement skills, you can weaponize him in the run game.

You can try some different things with him. And the fact that they're not going to be able to troubleshoot any of that heading into. the year, just something to keep an eye on. My first one here, since you took the cheap one, is not a cheap one at all, considering this team finished 31st in offensive DVOA last season. I'm going with the Tennessee Titans. Oh, you went the complete opposite direction. I love, listen, as a Cam Ward, enjoyer, I love this, but I do want to hear this feel here.

Here's what this is rooted in. When we're trying to figure out which teams are going to take a massive leap, quarterback changes are typically at the center of this, quarterback offensive coordinator. think there's going to be a decent amount of these in whatever offenses we throw out. But just as much as the Cam Ward part of this, the Titans have like a definitively good offensive line when everybody is healthy. They went from a bottom five offensive line last year, in part because the right side was an absolute mess. And you had J.C. Latham figuring out left tackle while never having to do that. Plus, you lose Lloyd Kishenberry for half the season.

And so you've got like one and a half quality starters on that. that offensive line for the Titans last year. Cushenberry is still hurt. Bill Callahan talked to reporters yesterday. I believe that he's going to hopefully start working in next week. They have joint practices, I think, against the bucks at the end of next week. And so hopefully he's going to start doing a little bit of individual work. It sounds like he could be ready for week one.

So if Cushenberry is back and healthy, and now you have Skoronsky at Left Guard, who has really come into his own, you have Danmore at Left Tackle, which Danmore, left tackle is fine. That is what they paid for, was fine left tackle. you have Kevin Zyler coming in at right guard and that you have J.C. Latham moving to his more natural position at right tackle. And beyond that, something that I really have come to appreciate and talking to a lot of offensive coordinators, offensive line coaches over the last couple weeks, is just what the guy next to you does for your development. And now having J.C. Latham play

next to Kevin Zitler, who's been in a leave for 13 years, he was talking to Buck Wreasing. It was a member of the Nashville media this week. And he was telling a story J.C. Latham was about a certain look that the Titans defense gave him, where Jeffrey Simmons was lined up on the edge, and Zytler was out. And so at the snap, Jeffrey Simmons cracks down and earholes the guard as part of a game, and Latham didn't see it coming. And afterwards, Zaitler was talking to him. And he's like, when they're in that sort of look, that's a game look.

You have to be able to help out your guard in a moment like that. And Latham was like, he's just telling me stuff like that every single day. And so that, I think, accentuates and accelerates your development as a young player, being able to play next to somebody like that. So this being like a top 10, defined top 10 offensive line, that's just as much a part of my enthusiasm for what this group can be as the introduction of Cam Ward is. I get all of that because I really,

that was the part that I think when I looked at the Titans roster immediately after the draft and trying to do just immediately like gut check, how do I feel compared to when you can marinate on it through mid-July and all that stuff, I really started to come around on the offensive line. Because I think if Dan Moore had been on this offensive line, last year, I don't know, he would have been probably given some of the injuries and stuff like that, probably their third best offensive linemen. When I think if Dan Moore is your third best offensive lineman, that's not the greatest spot to be in. But he could potentially, as we've talked about before, he might be their worst offensive lineman now if everyone's healthy, which if he's your worst offensive lineman, you're probably in a pretty good spot. And I'm so glad you mentioned like Latham getting to play next to more of a veteran.

in this year because Skoranski, I think, is a fine player, but Latham having to one switch sides last year and then also play next to a very young player with their starting center out for a lot of the season. It's just like, and a quarterback who I don't think was really helping them in terms of setting their protections and really making sure everything, everybody knows what's going on. It's just like, he's kind of just swimming and hoping that physically he could get it done. And you saw some of the flashes, but again, it was a little bit more up and down than you want. So I'm very bullish on where I think the offensive line is going. And if they can get a little bit more balance in the run game

and not have to make Cam Ward be a superhero and actually give him a little bit more of, it's not going to be 2016 Dak Prescott, but if you can at least give him some degree of help where he just doesn't have to feel like a hero all the time and throw some of the ridiculous interceptions in the second quarter the way he did in college, then I do think that this could go a pretty long way.

My question for you is, I know when we talked about this offense before, You are not as sold on the past catchers. So how do we feel this factors into this? Let's be clear about this. I'm still not. That is the one reservation I have about this. It's just a past catching depth.

They coming into camp, just based on how the spring had gone and how the first few days of training camp had gone, were pretty bullish on what that group could look like by the end of last season. I think there's a world and there's a path where Calvin Ridley's Calvin Redley's Calvin Calvin Redley. Calvin is still a good player. And I think Calvin Redley is actually going to be really. productive this year. He had a thousand yards last year. I think if you ask most people if he had a

thousand yards, like most people would tell you absolutely not. Just in a nightmarish scenario. Like a truly nightmareish scenario. So I think everything about the improved ecosystem, I think Calvin Ridley has a chance to be really productive this year. Like where he's going in fantasy drafts, I think is a little bit later than he should be. I think that's going to be a value because everything else is just going to be so much better. The younger guys, I think, are going to have a chance by the end of the season. And how much they get from those guys. by the end of the year, I think is going to be the biggest question. Like, D.K. Iamanor, like, what can they be by the end of year one?

I don't think they have to be great for this to be a surprisingly good offense. Think about Washington last year. Like, they got by with McCorn and not much else. So if they can run the ball efficiently, if Calvin Ridley can be really good, and if Cam Ward can definitively be like a top half of the league starter from day one, I just think that there is a chance this unit could like really surprise some people be like a back half of the top 10 knocking on the door of the top 10 sort of unit

if it all breaks right. That's a good point. Like Cam Ward, because he's not the runner, Jaden Daniels is probably, it probably doesn't have the ceiling that Washington's offense did last year. But in terms of the past catches,

you're kind of right. Like, Ridley is probably a tier, he's a tier below Terry McLaurin, I would say at his best. But also to me, Tyler Lockett is better than the other, any of the other wide receiver twos that we were seeing out of Washington last year.

So that like kind of helps bridge the gap a little bit there. I do think if Cam Ward is the player that we want him to be, which I still think he is, man. I think this is like weirdly the most bored that we've ever been of a number one pick at quarterback, which I just find bizarre, especially given the way that he plays, right? Like, it's not like he, no shade to him. I think we appreciate the player he's become, but like Jared Gough was a boring first overall pick because he just like played in this air raid offense. He didn't run.

Nothing physically about him was that interesting. He was just like a, we hope we hit a double here. And they did. The Rams hit a double. the Cam Ward thing is like he plays like an insane person. He plays like Mahomes. He plays like Josh Allen. And so he has the big arm.

He played in some insane games in college. And it's just like kind of bizarre to me that he in some ways, that's the first overall pick just kind of got, we just don't care about it. Maybe it's more of a Titans thing than a Cam Ward thing, but I don't know. I think that's part of it. I think it was a down top of the draft.

And I think there was so much talk about Shadur heading into the draft that it overshadowed what was going on with Cam Ward. And I'm completely with you because I think his style of play is actually very fun. I will say, and again, I was there three, four days into training camp, they're really excited about Cam Ward. And not just from the physical side of it. I think what they've been able to put on him mentally and what he's able to handle,

the coaches have come away really impressed with that. This is something where Brian Callahan's background, just the way that he's handled quarterbacks, they're giving him everything, everything mentally. All the toolboxes to change protections, just all the stuff that you need to work with as a quarterback, because I think their thought is, we want him to have everything available to him at the line of scrimmage,

because if he isn't able to handle that, then you're leaving yourself at a disadvantage. And I think there are elements of Cam Ward's game. And I'm not comparing him to Joe Burrow, and I don't think Brian Callahan would compare him to Joe Burrow. But I think the one thing that is a through line between those guys is that there's just like a spatial awareness of what the totality of the defense looks like.

And you can feel defenders in space. And Joe Burrow is, I think, better at that than anybody. And I think Cam Ward showed a real ability to do that in college. It's similar like the whole shots where he feels body language from defenders and is really willing to take chances because of that. And I think they've seen that a little bit in practice. There was a play early in training camp where they were working on how to call and check protections against certain looks.

And he got fooled by a cover zero blitz that like snapped out into a cover two look. And after the play, he was like, like I should have known because the corners were looking at me and not their receivers on that play. And so just that level of awareness and the scope that he's able to play with, like how much of the defense and the details he's able to see, that was one of his strengths in college. And I think that's already manifesting in what they've seen from early practices. That's extremely cool to hear because that really is one of the things that I loved about him coming out of college. Like I think like the whole shots is a good example because I think good

quarterbacks might see like, okay, the safety got X amount of depth on a covered two thing. I probably shouldn't throw this covered two hole. But a guy like Cam Ward, a guy like Joe Burrow, the truly the best quarterbacks in the league will be like, well, if his shoulders are tilted a little bit too far inside, he's going to have a little bit trouble flipping his hips. And I have a five-yard window here where if I really rip the shit out of this, I can actually make this throw. And obviously you're going to get burned doing that because sometimes the defenders, especially

in the NFL, are also paid to bait you in that way and make you make those throws. but I do think in the long run, it's absolutely going to work out for him. So it's very cool to hear that anecdote. I love that. There are certain concepts that are already in the Titans offense that he really liked running in college. And the difference between how he ran them in college and how they're running them is that in college he read them top to bottom and not bottom to top. And so there are concepts that they're using in Tennessee that they're having to kind of raid him in a little bit where it's like, I know you want to take the shot. Let's take a couple more layups here.

and it's just fun when you have a quarterback with that mindset. And if you watch Cam Ward in college, it was obvious that that's how he always wanted to play. And he's already brought that exact approach to the position as he stepped into this offense. So I think this is a group last year that shot itself in the foot as much as any offense I've ever watched. They were 31st in the NFL and EPA lost on turnovers. They were dead last in the NFL and EPA lost on aborted snaps. They got sacked at just an insane rate. Like when you compare, when you line up all of the improvements,

with the likelihood that they just won't step on as many rakes this year, I feel like this offense, if Cam Ward is pretty good from day one, could really surprise a lot of people. I think so too. I'm very excited about it. And again, he's going to step on some rakes as well. But last year, the theory with Will Levis was like,

okay, he'll step on some rakes, but also he'll do some really cool stuff. The cool stuff just didn't happen very much. With Cam Ward, I have a higher degree of certainty that he's going to give us some of the cool stuff. What's your next one here? you're next out of nowhere potential offense for 2025. I'm going to be honest.

With the offenses, I really struggled not to pick a lot of the ones that just felt kind of easy and kind of cheap. So my other cheap and easy ones is... Most of the other ones I have are easy and cheap. Like I had five total that I was like, all right, we can throw these out. I only have two that are like, all right, that's a spicy one. The Cowboys and then two other ones I had. I was like, yeah, these are the obvious ones.

So I'm curious if you had the same obvious ones. Which I'm assuming one of them is the Los Ragers. Yes. I mean, so that's the other one. And this, I'm really excited for this for a lot of reasons. One, you mentioned, the easiest way to pick these is like change it quarterback. You just did it with the Tennessee Titans. Obviously, Gino Smith to me is like one of those like borderline top 10 quarterbacks.

I think he still played really well last year despite all of the things that were going on in the Seattle offense. So I think bringing him in does a lot for them. I truly think they have the best tied in the league already. I think Brock Bowers is like a special, special player. Ashton Genty, he's a rookie, so we don't always know what that type of stuff. But I do think the rookies that are the rookie running backs that are drafted top 10, those guys are usually exactly as good as you want them to be. And I also think just the gap from, even if he's just a B plus level player,

they had like a D plus level running backs last year. So the gap in D plus is very generous. That's pretty generous. They were the worst run game in the league and the offensive line wasn't that bad. So it's very clearly like a running back issue. So if he gives them something that goes a long way, I still think Jacoby Myers is good. And then the last thing to me,

and this is a little bit playing to like my own, I'm being a meme of myself. I think Michael Mayer is a really good player. And I'm like kind of buying a lot of the stuff that they're saying about him. Like I really think last year was just a weird aberration for him. Yeah, I think that entire offense last year was working through a lot. It was just the whole thing was a mess.

Like there's just no way around it. The whole thing was a mess. everything about what they did over the last couple years was a mess. And so them getting just a more buttoned up offensive approach under Chip Kelly. I think they could live in 12 personnel with those two guys. And I think that's probably their best personnel group right now. I think Jacobi Myers is a good player. Like I think Jacoby Myers with real quarterback play has a chance to be very productive.

So I just think the floor is so, so much higher with Gino. And even if there are people who are going to roll their eyes at the idea of him being a top 10 quarterback, we did this when we talked about the six best quarterback show. There is a flatness from like six to 15. He's definitively in that grouping conversation. And when you compare that to some of the worst quarterback play in football, it changes everything about your offense. Like going from not starting quarterback play,

like not starting level quarterback play, to good quarterback play, no matter where you think he fits in the hierarchy, is the most important thing you can do as an NFL offense. And that is exactly what the Raiders are doing this year. Yeah. Not everybody has to be us that appreciate Gino Smith as much. But even if you think he's like quarterback 17, that's at least like 15 spots higher than they were getting. So massive difference. Yeah. Like you're going from we can't do the offense the way that we want

to to like, okay, Gino Smith might have his warts, but we can like throw down the field. We can throw into tight windows. We can do some aggressive stuff. We can get the ball to our playmakers without having to just throw Brock Bowers and million screens. And he was great. that, but I would like to expand the Brock Bowers role into a lot more than we're just going to throw our tight end, a lot of screens. And the last thing I want to say, and you brought this up, like, the whole operation is just going to feel like adults are in the room. And to me, the, like, kind of corollary I thought of when I was thinking of this was going, the Jaguars going from Urban Meyer, how just completely childlike and not serious that organization felt to even just

getting Doug Peterson in there in the building. And I know that eventually deteriorated. But Doug Peterson did bring a like, okay, we know how to run a team for a little bit. I have a lot of faith that Pete Carroll is going to level that aspect of it up. So I just, between that and Gino Smith, it just feels like the floor for competency is like way, way shot up from what it was last year. I mean, that offense for the Jags in 2022 is like a borderline top 10 offense. If you look at some of the efficiency metrics, like it was a huge step forward just by going from not NFL level coaching to adults in the room.

That's a good way to put it. I was looking at, I think, EPA per game. And I think the Urban Meyer year, they were like 29th. And then, yeah, the first Doug Peterson year by the end, they were like ninth or tenth. That's kind of what I can see with this Raiders team where they were 31st last year. Obviously, quarterback play had a huge deal in that. But if they're the ninth or tenth best offense this year, I don't think you would be that crazy, especially if Genti really is the player that we think he can be. You saying that the running backs were D pluses last year.

And me saying it's worse than that. I was in a situation last year in my like long-term keeper fantasy league where I had Zemir White for like nothing. And I was like, well, he's going to be the starting running back. I have to keep him. Like it's free. I have to do this. And I hated myself for like the entire first six weeks of the season. And that comes on the heels of me stumbling into the Devante Adams, Jimmy Garapolo pairing and having to watch that and be invested in every single game.

So the amount of pain I've had to endure watching the Las Vegas Raiders over the last two seasons on offense, as much as you possibly can if you're not a Raiders fan. So I'm very much looking forward to what this version of it could potentially look like. Because that was funny too, because I have the starting running back for X team. Even for bad running games still does work for like 29 out of 32 offenses in the league every year. Did not work for that Raiders team. It was free. And I knew I was, I knew it was a mistake going into it.

And the last thing I'll say about this, the offensive line, I know you're a little bit more concerned about it than I am. I think that there's a path for them to be pretty decent. And it was funny when I was watching them at the end of last season and projecting what the starting five might look like this year, I liked Jordan Meredith. Like I actually thought he did some good work as their left guard last season in spot duty. And then coming into this year, I was like, oh, it seems like he's going to get pushed out of the lineup. Like I actually thought he played pretty well last year. And he's now their starting center and they moved Jackson Powers Johnson to guard.

So that five with Meredith Powers, Powers Johnson, Dylan, Pardham, DJ Glaze, Colton Miller. I think there's at least a path for that group to be okay at some points this season, where you can build a decent offense around them with better quarterback play, with Genti, with Bowers. Like it can be the fulcrum of a group and not something that's really pulling you down. That is actually a little tangent. I want to go on. I find it kind of interesting how many teams this offseason went in being like this guy is going to play center for us and then a week into it.

I think the offensive coordinator was like, I'm good on that actually. Like Chip Kelly's obviously did it. the lines did that with trying to get Tate Ratledge in there. I think the Chargers were trying to do a little bit of that with Zion Johnson. Just a lot of teams were like, you know what? We're going to put the other guy in. Even if we think maybe physically he's not as impressive as these other guys, we're going to move the physically impressive guy to guard and let this other guy take over at

center. Yeah, I'm going there next week. I'm going to be there for a Raiders, Niners joint practice in Las Vegas. And I'm curious to chat with some people there just about what that group looks like and how the offensive line has developed over the last year or so. and just what they think the offense might be. I know it wasn't a good opening showing in the preseason last night, but I'm not overly worried about that.

How you look in preseason game one is not something I'm going to overreact to? How many times have we seen a team look terrible in the preseason? I just can't get there. I just can't get there. We're going to take a quick break and get back with a few more potential out-of-nower offenses. All right, here's my second spicy one. You ready? This one's really going to piss you off.

I hope so. Carolina Panthers. Oh. I was going to go a different NFC South offense that you're going to have to sell me. This, I can't do this. The Falcons wouldn't be out of nowhere. The Falcons were like a top 10 offense last year.

Yeah, I guess until like the Kirk thing felt, that's a good point. I guess with the quarterback change, I think it was just like you're still trying to sell a new thing, but I guess not really. Oh, no. The Falcons would have been an extremely cheap one to throw them in there.

They were like sixth and success rate last season. That would be way too easy. I'm going with the Carolina Panthers, who were 24th. an offensive DVOA last year. But, but they were 12th in EPA per play over the second half of last season.

12th. You seem disgusted by this. Why are you so anti this take? I just, I've told, I've said it before. I think it's nice that Bryce Young has gone from like potentially out of the league

to being somewhat competent, but this, it just so much of last year to me felt more like, he just was getting away with a lot of stuff that I just, I just, I just could not disagree. more with that. I could not disagree with more of that.

He was getting, he was let down by the past catchers so often last year. So often. And I do think, let's start with the past catchers first and foremost, I think what McMillan does to the rest of that group is one of the reasons that I'm really interested in this. Because Xavier Legat, as an ex-receiver as a rookie, considering the development curve he was already going to have to be on, it was a losing battle. Like it just, they were not setting him up for success and they knew that, but they didn't have anyone else that they could pop out there. And so they had to play him at X and he's just not supposed to be in that role. And so now with McMillan, I think you move Leggett into a role within that offense.

It just makes a ton more sense. Now he can just be like a vertical guy for this team where his lack of nuance and refinement matters so much less because what you're going to be asking of him. And so I think that pairing and just guys being able to play their better roles because of it, is something I can get behind. The offensive line, it's a good group. It's a solid group overall, right? They've poured a ton of resources into it.

And why I actually think it could be better this year is that their run game specifically last season was really vanilla. It was very boring. And it was kind of frustrating, actually. It was a lot of like mid zone from the shotgun. And I'm like, ah, it just, there's not a lot to get excited about here. And one of the reasons that I was particularly frustrated, and before I went there this week, it was one of the things that was kind of holding me back about them

is that it was the same takeaway I had watching the Canales run game in Tampa. And then you compare that to what the bucks were with Liam Cohen and you feel how dynamic the 2024 version was. And I do think they're aware of that. And I think some of the simplicity in the run game last year was just a product of year one in the system. So you have these two guards that you've paid a shitload of money. One of them in Robert Hunt who can really move and Lewis who can really move.

and Lewis who can really move some people. And so I do think we're going to see a more diversified run game from them this year compared to the one we saw last year. And I think they have the players up front to potentially take advantage of that. So if this can be a more dynamic run game with solid running backs behind it, and I do think they have two of those, I just think there's enough here personnel-wise going into year two with just some more wrinkles within that system that I don't know, man.

Like if I squint, I could see them being like the ninth best offense in the league of some things break right for them. I think with Canales, I think overall, I think he's a nice play caller. But with the run game, like, he's got to show it to me first. I'm not doing any of the, I can't buy in before I see it. Every bit of this is projection. Yeah. And to be fair, like they do have offensive linemen that like you're saying, in theory, if they wanted to do more gap stuff, it would make a lot of sense. It's just that was also kind of true in Tampa.

And they didn't really do a lot of it. Obviously, the center was different. So maybe that hurt them a little bit. But again, that was year one. He was only there for one year. And so going from year one to year two and being able to build on some of the core stuff and iterate, he didn't even have a chance to do that in Tampa. He's been the offense coordinator twice.

And he started over both times. So if you're trying to build a case, I do think that there is a case to be built. I here's here's my other thing with why I think I struggle with this a little bit if I were to imagine like what the top 10 offenses next year look like I who is whoever the best player on the panthers offenses is the worst best player among any of the other top 10 units like unless tetaroa macmillan unless tetarola macmillan is like malique neighbors level good they just who is their superstar that feels like they can carry a top 10 offense.

I think that's where I struggle. I do get the down to down with the run game. I think Bryce Young, you have found some more consistency in the passing game. I think the ceiling, again, unless he really is just Mike Evans out of the gate. McMillan I'm talking about. It's hard for me to see who is the ceiling razor. I get that. It's actually a really good argument.

I'm trying to find like an analogous case that I can use to make my point here. Yeah, now I would need to see like who were exactly. where the top 10 offenses last year. Like who is the worst skill player in all of those? Okay. So here, the team that I think is the best case here, and I do think that there's, you could poke some holes in this.

It'd be like an Arizona cardinals-esque path. I don't, I don't, I don't hate that. But even then the quarterback, I think just has higher. You know, it's, I think that's where it comes down to me. So I think this is part of it. I think, so if I were you, let's argue against my, self here. Trey McBride is definitely better than any of the skill position players.

Yeah, Tray McPathor's. Right? But I do think collectively, one to four or five, there's better depth at the skill position talent for Carolina if McMillan is a hit. Because you have Liget who has pedigree, Coker was decent last year, you have Thielen. I think there are more options within the passing game for Carolina, even if the high-end guys aren't quite as high-end as the Cardinals do. And if they add a more diversified run game, I think the offensive line talents,

for the Panthers is better than the offensive line talent for Arizona. The part where we're never going to be on the same page here is the quarterback. And I think that's at the core of this is that I believe in him, I think more than you believe in him. I believe in so far as like he can stick around now. I just don't know if I believe in him insofar as he can help lead a top 10 offense. I think I struggle with that part a little bit of it. I do agree with the depth of, I think, the past catchers though, because Arizona was very top heavy. it was like, you know, you had your two stars, obviously,

and then Michael Wilson is fine. And then after that, you were kind of holding on to your hats a lot. Carolina does, in theory, have like four workable receivers. And then honestly, the tight end room, there's no stars. But like, I kind of liked, Jatavian Sanders was a player. I hated in college. But as a rookie, I was like, I don't know, man. He's kind of got a little bit of shit to him.

So I think that's a very good thing to bring up because they're excited about him heading into this year. He got banged up in the middle of last year, which I think really kind of threw some stuff off and he's a little bit slimmer. I think he's going to be a real big part of their passing game. And I think he allows them to do some really cool stuff. I know I was there at practice. They were lining him up as like the isolated receiver and going like some one by three

stuff with the wide outs. Like I do think that he's going to allow them to add a couple cool layers to their passing game. And I believe in Bryce Young. And I just think that his comfort level within the offense, the amount of ownership he's now going to have with some stuff at the line of scrimmage. I do believe that we could see him maintain. something close to the level of play that we saw last year.

Anticipation and aggressiveness, if that's at the core of who you are as a passer, and that's what we saw from Bryce Young last year, I can get behind it. If that is at the core of who you are, I can get behind it. And he has both of those things. So I don't even necessarily disagree with that.

I just think the third tenet to that is arm talent. And he just doesn't have enough of it for me to sustain that level of play where I think when you don't have the, arm for, you're kind of inviting a lot of volatility. And I think for as much as his receivers let him down last year, there were some DVs dropping some easy ones last year that I just, if that turns, I don't know. Do you think Brock, do you think Bryce Young has like demonstrably worse arm talent than Brock Purdy?

I think Brock can get the ball to, like, I think, I think Brock's arm is, but I wouldn't say demonstrably different, but I would say it's a little bit worse. Because I think that to me is like the best case scenario. I can actually see that as like him being something akin to Brock Purdy. And the reason that I make that connection, again, and just talking to people about this, his ability to see and access the middle of the field for a smaller player, really the only other guy that I think falls into that same bucket with the way that they play is Brock Purdy. I think they're both kind of similar in that regard and how they try to work that level of the field as smaller quarterbacks.

And they do it with anticipation and trust. And so I think he can overcome some. of the armed talent deficiencies because of the way that he plays in some of these areas. So listen, they were like a bottom six offense last year. Like this is not, you're having to tell yourself a story to get there. I just think this is one of the groups where I'm like, all right, I can get behind some of this if you believe in the quarterback. I can see. And you know, what I will say is I've come around on Brock Purdy now.

But it did take like 30 games for me to finally start to buy it. Whereas with Bryce Young, we got what, I don't know, six or seven really at the end there where he looked decent. So maybe with another dozen so games, I could start to buy in. But until then, I don't know, man. There's one more offense that I was going to throw out. This, again, feels like one of the cheap ones. But a team going from, like, outside of the top 16 to the top 10, like the Jags could easily do it this year. I mean, it.

I didn't want to do the bit. I mean, come on. We don't have to talk about it at length. But that was like the last of my five where I was like, we'll throw them in here. because again, if the Jags were the ninth best offense in the league this season, no one would be shocked. I'm sure a lot of people would. I would not be shocked by that if that's how it ended up shaking out.

I think that they have the receiving talent. The quarterback gives them a baseline level of play. They would have to overcome the offensive line. But if they can scheme around it well enough, I think that path is there for them, even if it might not be likely. Absolutely. And like it's all of the stuff that we've talked about with Cohen and you had Travis Hunter and all that stuff.

but also I think the other element of it is that quietly, they weren't that bad last year. They were 17th. Yeah, they were only 17th. And that was like some of that, even in the early parts of the season, was like before Brian Thomas Jr. really became Brian Thomas Jr. And then obviously, you know, Mack Jones had to play like the second half of the season. There was just, I think it felt more gross to watch than like the actual efficiency was. And sometimes you have offenses that are the opposite.

Like the opposite of that was the Vikings. That offense was awesome to watch. But, like, realistically, they weren't that much better. It's just that, like, when you have the ceiling of Justin Jefferson, you make it, it makes it feel a lot more better. So I just, they weren't as bad as it feels like they were. And also they've made enough of the improvements that, like, I can sell myself on the Jaguars for the 800th time. Yeah, no more Jacks talk. But I think we had to mention that as a team that potentially fits this.

Let's get to defenses. This one was actually harder for me. I think defenses in general should be easier. But it was harder for me to come up with five teams that I, I felt, or however many teams, then I felt like really good about. Who was your first defense that you think could be like an out of nowhere top 10 unit this year? Oh, I don't feel good about most of these.

I feel like I'm having to swing for the fences on a lot of them. So I will take the one that I've kind of hinted at before that I do feel at least the most okay with. And again, this one is cheating because for a long time they did have a good defense. The 49ers, like I've talked about like I. Interesting. They were not on my list. I just, I'm buying the.

front, dude. I'm buying that. It's not, here's a thing. All right. Whoa, wait, wait. Wait. What? You're just saying that like it should be taken as a given. You're buying like Nick Bosa and the kids? Like, this is all rookies. You think all the rookies are just going to fix their problems immediately? So yes and no. I think I really, really think Michael Williams can come in and be like Michael Williams, man. I love Michael Williams. I love Michael Williams too, but I don't know. But the thing is like he doesn't have, he's when Mike William's one, I like him, but also he's playing opposite Nick Bosa. I think to me that sets him up to be to me in a pretty good spot. I also think last year especially and even kind of the year before,

I think the Niners really struggled with a little bit of an identity crisis in terms of what they actually wanted to be up front and how they wanted to call some of this stuff. I think just going back to Robert Sala, even if I do still think they have too many light bodies, particularly at defensive tackle. Sala to me is at least a guy who knows how to weaponize that in a way that I think they struggled to really put together the last couple of years. So you add that on top of, again, I really like Mikel Williams. Fred Warner hopefully will be healthier. Like last year, he was still good.

He's Fred Warner. But he was playing, I think, on like a busted ankle for a lot of the season and just wasn't fully healthy. And so if he's back at peak play again, I think that's going to go a long way. The secondary, I think, honestly, more than the front is where I think you have to squint a little bit. But I don't know. For whatever reason, I'm kind of buying some of the stuff.

They're saying it like Uft and Stout. and stuff like that. Maybe I'm like way too at the back for it, but I just, I'm into it. I don't know. The secondary is where you have to squint to see it. The front has all rookies. They'll be fine. Saul is going to tell them to go forward and they're going to go forward.

It'll be fine. I think there are so many questions here. I absolutely think there's a path for them to be like an acceptable defense again. And if the offense is very good, which I think it has the capability of being, this can still be like an 11-win playoff team. Like I think that's probably where I would lean overall. I just, there are so many questions I still have about the defense. And maybe my biggest question, and this has come up a lot as I've talked to defensive

coordinators from that schematic tree even over the course of this trip is just how you're thinking about diversification as we get into this world where I think teams have a really good understanding of how to pick on these four-down teams. teams have had a they've had a tried and true playbook they've been able to develop for when you're one of these four down teams there's really no front diversification we know how to go after you when you're the Texans and as one offensive coach put it to me you have all those creatures up front you you can get by playing that way when you don't have that level of front talent I think that the simplicity of it starts to play against you and that's my biggest question about robert's all is without a bunch of talent up front here, what does this unit look like, especially against the run? If they don't try to find a couple different ways

to approach this and a couple of wrinkles on top of it, is the simplicity going to be something that people can pick on because there aren't defined stars here? There's potential, but there are not defined stars here anymore. I mean, I think that that's totally fair. And again, to get to that world, you really do have to believe that Michael Williams can basically have like the Jaredverse type of rookie season,

which is definitely asking. I just don't see that. I think he can be a really solid run defender from day one. But I just don't think he plays with that level of violence. I know he was banged up last year. But when I watched Jared Verst in college, it was real violence. And that's just not how Michael Williams plays.

I think he's going to be a solid run defender from the start. And I think the combination of him and Bryce Huff situationally, you can build a really nice secondary edge spot. But I think combined with all of the uncertainty and the interior, I think you're shooting for let's try to get by with this group, not let's dictate games with this group. I don't know. Maybe I still think Nick Bosa at his best can really still be that level of

player. And if Michael Williams is 80% of the quality that we got from Jared versus, I think that might be enough. I'm definitely asking a lot of the not Fred Warner, Nick Bosa players in this defense, which was the mistake I think a lot of us made last year. But I really just, it to me just feels like getting Robert Sala in the building. And then I think having a better understanding of, who these players are and really drafting in a way that feels very pointed to the defense they

want to, whereas I think over the last couple of years, they struggled with that personnel-wise. It just feels like the floor is going to be a little bit higher. And then if they're two best players are who we believe they can be and can be healthy, again, I'm saying like back half of the top 10. I'm saying like squeaking ninth or 10th. But given that they were like 22nd or 23rd last year, that that would go a long way for this team, especially if, you know, we don't have to talk about the offense. but if they're who we think they are, this team is really, really good again.

The floor is a good term to bring up because there are going to be teams I mentioned here that I think have a chance to surprise people. I think there are teams I'm going to mention here that I believe have a lower floor than the 49ers do. Like if the Niners were the 27th best defense league, I'd be very surprised. Other teams here, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if that makes sense. Like I think there's more variance with some of the teams we're going to talk about here. Exactly.

Exactly. And we'll talk about why in a second. but I think the Niners, if they were the 27th best defense of league, I'd be surprised. But if they were the seventh best defense in the league, I would also be surprised. I just think that there's probably a narrower path for them. I think that's fair, because even though I do think the floor is raised, again, unless Michael Williams is Jared versus, the ceiling probably isn't any better than it's been the past couple of years. Well, you mentioned Jaredverse.

I'm going to get to that team here in a little bit. The first one I'm throwing out there, one that I think is kind of cheap here, because they were already pretty good according to some advanced metrics. last year. My first one is the Arizona Cardinals. I think the Cardinals absolutely have a path to be a top 10 defense this year. Per like DVOA projections, they have them as a top 10 defense this year. So this isn't even that spicy of a take if you look at some of the underlying numbers. They were 16th in EPA per play over the second half of last season. They finished 14th in defensive DVOA. I just think the ideas that have driven this Cardinals defense are fascinating. And I'm so interested

to see what those ideas look like filtered through better players. And where they land on that, I think is one of my biggest questions, period, about any team. Like, stylistically, what do the Cardinals try to be with an increase in talent? Because if you look at what they've been trotten out over the last couple of years, especially out front, there's just a lot left to be desired. And then coming into this year, they're adding, like, for, like, let's say at least half the season, Here are the players that the Cardinals are adding to their defensive front. Josh Swett, who they paid in free agency,

Callais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson, Darius Robinson, who was hurt for a huge chunk of his rookie season, B.J O'Jolari, who was hurt for the entirety of last season, and Walter Nolan, who they drafted in the first round. It's six guys. The whole thing. Yes, it's six guys. The only guys that are carrying over are essentially as like these starters,

like front line starters, and he may not even be considered this anymore, is kind of Zaven Collins and kind of Baron Browning, who are now more situational because of the players that they've added. And they drafted Jordan Burch in the third round. Like, we're looking at seven new pieces

as part of this defensive line rotation for the Cardinals. This was the most got something out of like actually nothing defense that we got last year. Like, similar to the first year of like kind of Brian Flores almost where it's like, okay, in the back end here, but for the most part,

they're getting a lot out of basically nothing. And Zaven Collins, I think, is like the perfect example of that. Because he, they drafted him to be an offball player last year, or maybe even a little bit the year before, realized that, okay, he's like a 6-4, 250 pound. He looks like Donta High Tower. Let's just put him on the edge. And we're going to ask him to defend the run and push the pocket a little bit.

And he could do some of that. It's just that like, that's a cool idea and a nice player to stumble on. But when he was like, I don't know, their third or fourth best, most productive player last year, that's not a good spot to be in. So now that he gets like bumped way down the totem pole, I think that that's really nice for them. What's funny about the Cardinals defense is for as much as I admire a lot of stuff that

they were doing, they were very much a defense that like every play was either the best or worst thing that could happen. Let's dig into that. They were 31st in defensive success rate last year, which it makes it crazy that they finished not that close to that in terms of like EPA per play. stuff like that. My favorite thing, my favorite sad about that, and we'll get into some of that, because it's incredibly important, is against the run. They were 31st in explosive run rate allowed last year. They were eighth in percentage of opponent runs that went for zero or negative

yards. It was all or nothing. Like, that was the Arizona Cardinals defense last year. So when we say there are a lot of interesting ideas with this defense, I think there are a couple different things to throw out. But at the front of that, to me, is the stuff they were doing with their three safeties. And when I say three safeties, at Williams, who's their nickel, was a safety in a lot of the looks that the Cardinals were trotting out. And so they have these defenses on early downs where it's a penny front, so five down linemen, one off ball linebacker, two corners, three safeties. And why they like that for a variety of reasons.

But why that is so effective for them compared to other teams is that they have Buda Baker. And every team likes to say we're building the defense through our players. This system is a perfect expression of Buda Baker. talent for two different reasons. One, he's the one getting a lot of these free hitter looks at the line of scrimmage. Like, he's the one with a lot of these TFLs. He was third in the NFL among all defensive backs and TFLs last year. The two guys ahead of him were Roger McCreary and Mike Hilton, who played on the line of

scrimmage as nickelbacks. He plays 10 yards deep into the defensive backfield, and he's still third in the league. And so what that does is with those three high safeties, offenses don't. know where he's going to be in the run fit. So you're not accounting for him. And so that's why they were able to get him as a free hitter a lot. And the other part of it is when you have those three guys in the back end, you can do anything you want with disguise. And it's not even just the structure when it comes to like, oh, is it cover three, is it cover two? Some of these three safety looks that Spags uses specifically, the guy dropping down as one of those safeties, he's often like the pole runner player

in cover two. Well, the Cardinals, Buddha can be like six different things. And so there's just so much murkiness because of the looks that they're playing in with those three safety shells. And so those are the benefits of them. And I think they'll still do a lot of that because they believe in the benefits of them. But I think they'll get simpler in other situations. The biggest issue for this team last year is that they were 31st in the NFL and success rate on first down. So they were just never in defined passing situations. And I think when they get to those this year, when it's second and nine, way more often than it's second and five, you're going to see them in four down fronts where they want those highly paid, highly drafted guys to just go eat the same way they did with Jonathan Gannon and Philadelphia.

So I think they'll be a little bit less weird this year, but I still think they'll be weird enough to take advantage of it with better players. That's specifically about the first down, like a really good point too, because I do think if you had to point to like what was the strength of the roster last year, it was the secondary. Like Buda Baker, you know, is a great player. Garrett Williams, I think, really showed up for them. Max Melton was a rookie, but like had his moments. And I understand why they are maybe a little bit, you know, kind of high on him and want him to be a really good player. So like the secondary was good. It's just like you said, well, if you're always in second and three, you know, the offense, this doesn't really have to interact with any of that.

And so I think that hurt them. The Buddha Baker thing is funny. I'm so glad you mentioned the way that his role operates. Because one, them just structurally being a three safety defense does mess with the way that offenses are perceiving like where he's going to be, but he's also one of the few players who in the NFL gets like true freedom sometimes. Yes. Like he's just walking around sometimes.

Like you just kind of like hanging out like where do I think the ball is going to be? There's a little bit of like truly like Troy Palabalu type of, I'll find. But I love that. I love because so many teams give lip service to this idea of like, oh yeah, we're going to really build it through our players. And then you see something like this and it truly is built through the players. And I think the secondary talent, losing Star Thomas, who's like was important. important cornerback depth for them is he's out for the season, I believe. That's something

worth noting because now you essentially are counting on Will Johnson from day one, but I think they'll be okay even doing that. And I'm with you on Max Melton. He's a year two outside corner. I think he has a chance to take a step. And even beyond Buddha, Jaylon Thompson is a nice player. And I think Garrett Williams, in the versatile role they have him in, is a nice player. So I really like the secondary. Obviously, we talked about the front. And the last thing worth mentioning here, which I think is just a cool philosophical discussion. Jonathan Gannon when he was in Philly, they ran one of the simplest defenses in the NFL.

It was incredibly simple. And I think in his bones, that's kind of what he wants to do. Like he wants to run a pretty simple defense. And I have so much respect for somebody in the head coaching chair with a specialization on one side of the ball that empowers his assistance to really do what they think is best. And him really loosening his grip and empowering Nick Rowley,

their defensive coordinator to do all of this wonky shit. That takes a lot of humility. And I just don't think a lot of coaches would be willing to do that. And I think the Cardinals have benefited because of it. And where they fall kind of on the spectrum between what Gannon values and what Rallis values this year, I'm really curious to see what it is. But because of that history and because of how good that relationship has been, I trust where they're going to land between those two poles.

That's a really interesting point. And part of it with Gannon, at least obviously in his last stop before Arizona, is like, well, it's easy to be simple when your front is that good the way that it was in Philly. And that's why they throw six bodies at it. Exactly. That's why they're just like every resource we have. We'll pay guys in free agency. We'll get veterans. We'll get young guys.

Everything it takes. If we can get something akin to that, that's what we want. Yeah. Only the Eagles played with lighter boxes last season. And so in order to play that way and hold up against the run, eventually you do need better. players. You can do as much weird shit as you want. You do need guys in order to hold up that way. And I think they have some guys this year. All right, before we get to a couple more of these defenses, we're going to take one more quick break. All right. What's your next potential out of

nowhere defense you got for me? This one I feel the stinkiest about not in terms of how far they have to go to get into the top 10. Just like, I don't really like betting on the logo on the side of the helmet for this team. But I think I'm kind of going to do it anyway. And I'm, I think if they literally played under any other logo, we would feel differently about them. The Colts defense might be kind of good. Wow, I did not anticipate you saying that. I thought you were going with another team there. So first of all, they weren't that bad last year.

They were like the 17th. I mean, that's what Gus Bradley does, right? He's going to get you to dead average and that's what they were. So they were like the 17th best defense last year. And I think why I like bring up all the logo stuff is I think with how much, at least I personally still believe in Luana Roos. Rumo, and then when I think of them signing some of the biggest ticket secondary guys in this free agency class, Charberius Ward, Campinum, who I think can be really good players.

And then if you just look at some of the front talent, the pedigree of those guys, the Forrest Bukner, when he has some help, is still one of the best defensive tackles in the league. Lai Tzu Latsu was a first-round pick who had, not like a, he was overshadowed by Jared Vers, obviously, but he had a pretty solid rookie season. And then they have like pretty good depth behind him, not a lot of superstars, but just they have waves of pass rushers if they need to get to it. And then Grover Stewart is one of the best noses in the league still. It's just like, I think if we've removed how stinky we feel about the Colts in general

because of the quarterback situation and all of that, I kind of think that this would be a team that would be a lot easier to buy in on. It's just the aesthetics of it don't feel that great. I think I can get on board with most of that. The first thing I would say that I'm worried about is that second cornerback spot, Justin Wally, who was a third round pick for them, was looking like he was going to be a starter opposite of Charvarius Ward. He tore his ACL on Thursday.

And so he's going to be out for this season. So now we're already digging into that same cornerback depth that has been an issue with this team over the last couple of years. So that's not a great note on which to start. For me, it's about how much of a step can that front take this year, right? Can Latu become like a real difference maker? Can getting Ebukam back and having some of that pass rushing depth become a strength of this team?

You know, we'll see what happens with, at this point, I'm like kind of past expecting Quitty Pay to take a big step forward as a past rusher. But he's a useful player, right? But if Latu can become like a true ace and you can rely on the depth and the secondary can come together, I think this group has a pretty decent floor. I think the front and how much of a difference they're making down to down will determine the ceiling. That's definitely a lot of it for me. Like I'm banking on, you know, not Latu being some all pro or something, but jumping up to where he could, you know, be like, like a 10 sack-ish guy. So I'm baking in a little bit of development there.

And then I also think because of the way that Anarumo will call a defense where I think he's better at calling games and like throwing different types of pressure packages and sims and stuff than a guy like Gus Bradley was, I think that makes it easier to kind of weaponize a defense that has a lot of okay twos and threes types of pass rushers. Like that's what we've seen from Mike McDonald for the longest time, right? And I think Mike McDonald obviously does that better than Anerumo. but if that's what they want to tap into, like when you already have the

pocket pusher like DeForest Buckner, who's going to give you some real firepower from the middle, if the other guys off the edge can just be, you know, you bring waves and bring the correct pressure packages, I can see why this would be a pretty decent defense. It's funny. I did not have them on my radar,

but I understand where you're coming from with all of this. Like, I don't disagree with it. They were the last team I put on because it's like, with all of these other teams that we're bringing up, There's like one very obvious thing that makes you excited about why you want to buy into it. Like with the Cardinals, it's like, okay, well, they threw a million things at the front and signed maybe the best pass rushers that you could get in free agency and all this stuff. With the Colts, it's a lot of like, okay, they signed the free agent corners and the free agent safety, but there's nothing that really speaks to you.

But the more I just looked at the collective picture, I was like, again, if they didn't have the Colts on the side of their helmet, I think this would be an easier team to buy in on. it's funny because when you said when you said that about the helmet and the logo the team I thought you were going to go with is one of the teams that I had kind of in my short list. It was the Giants. Oh, okay, okay. I thought about them because I get it with the pass rush

but they're more of like they got to prove it to me type of defense. I'm also there, but I'm at least open to the idea that they could take a huge leave forward. Like the pass rushing talent if Abdul Carter is really good from day one, which I'm open to, it's very good. Like if Brian Burns is now your second best edge rusher and Kavan Tipido is your third

best edge rusher and you still have Dexter Lawrence and you bring in a guy like Abdul Carter into the mix, I'm open to the thought that this could be a really, really good pass rush. And then similar to the Colts, they've paid to fix parts of the secondary. I'd still be worried about that second outside corner spot, but now you have Javon Holland in the mix. If Paul Sinadiebo does hit. I think that there's at least a timeline where this can be a back half of the top 10 defense that is driven by the pass rush.

It's if the corner situation is not a disaster, I can see it. Because, you know, we've kind of expressed like, I get why Paulson-Dadevo might help them, but I've, I kind of understand some of the concerns that you have about like how he might not be as surefire of a bet as they want him to be. And then there's already kind of been reports out of camps that like, Deontay Banks doesn't really have the outside corner. corner spot anymore. And so if like your first round pick from a couple years ago doesn't solidly have the spot, that to me leaves a lot in flux there. I really do like the safeties and the nickel spot though.

Like Drew Phillips is a solid player. Javon Holland to me, I love that fit, especially if he's going to be healthier. And Tyler Nubin is like, I think athletically he's never going to be a star player, but he'll put his shit in there, man. Like he's very aggressive player downhill. I like him. I think the secondary absolutely could be decent at the, you know, at the very least. and if the front can be a group that really dictates how games go,

I would not be shocked if this was a good defense. I'm very much still in wait and C mode. Like I'm not actually predicting that they will be, but I thought they were at least worth mentioning in an exercise like this. Did you have one more? I do have one more, and this is the one that I feel the most. They have to cover a lot of ground to get into the top 10. But I kind of might do the thing again with the New England Patriots defense.

I think they could be like kind of good. Yeah, I knew you're going to do this. I thought when I went into this argument, I was going to do New England Patriots offense, but they've actually been more and more that I sit with it for a lot of the offseason I kind of struggle with. When I think about the defense, though, one, it's a little bit of what we talked about earlier

with like the Raiders, where I just, the Gerard Mayo thing was such a disaster for a lot of reasons that I think just going from that to someone who I believe that we can all think can raise the floor in Mike Frable, I think that goes a long way. They also just in terms of personnel last year, Barmore wasn't playing.

And obviously we don't know what we're going to get from him this year. But for him to just not be playing at all last year, I think hurt them a lot. Joanne Bentley missed basically all of last year. And I think he was a really important piece for them beforehand. Kyle Dugger was a little bit up and down in terms of injuries. And then to me, the big one is, I know Old Corner is a bad thing to bet on. But Carlton Davis is like miles better than anyone else that they were putting out there on the outside last year. As a short-term bet, it could absolutely work out.

That's what I'm doing here. I'm making the short-term bet that for this year he's going to be fine. So yeah, will he be there for the Super Bowl window that they want in three years, two years? I don't know, maybe not. But for this year, I'm pretty excited about him next to Christian Gonzalez, who I believe is like, I don't know, man. If I had to rank him probably the third best corner in the league, maybe fourth,

like he's, I think he's a star. When you were talking, I wanted to pull up the just snap counts for the 2024 New England Patriots defense, to just to talk about some of the guys they had up front. So Keon White played 830 snaps last year. I still think Keon White has like a real ceiling as a player. He took a step back over the course of last season. But I think that was in part because he was the only guy they had along that defensive front. Some of the other guys on the defensive front for the Patriots last year that got at least 400 snaps.

Anthony Jennings, who's not giving you anything as a pass rusher. We know that. Daniel Uke-L.A., who had 723 snaps last year. Devon Godshaw had 680 snaps last year. Jeremiah Farms Jr. had 457 snaps last year. And then Dietrich Wise had 409. Again, not giving you a ton of juice as a pass rusher.

Adding Milton Williams and Christian Barmore next to Keon White, I feel a lot better about that. A lot better about it. And I do think that there is a chance because of that. We see a guy in Keon White closer to what we had over the first chunk of last season compared to him slowing down over the back half of last season. They just have more pop than they would have last year. I also think like in terms of just adding a little bit more depth to the defensive line and stuff too,

like I kind of like the Kyrrish Tonga signing. You know, he's only a guy you want to play for like 12, 15 snaps a game as a run defender, but I actually think he's solid. And then even the another issue that that defense had was obviously the front wasn't very good for a lot of the season. But then the guys behind them also weren't giving them a whole lot. like, you know, Jelani Tavai, I think took a step back. Obviously, I said Bentley hadn't been playing. I think bringing in Robert Spillane, who not an all-pro type of linebacker, but like,

he's going to go up and hit a guard. He's going to take space back. You can do something with him in coverage where I just think they lacked any of that last year. And Christian Gonzalez obviously banged up, or it was banged up early in training camp, but he's going to be a really good player. And him and Carlton Davis is a real cornerback duo. And so I could absolutely see it with this group.

And then Barmore coming back, I think is a huge part of it, along with Milton Williams. Like if that interior pass rush can be a defiant strength and like one of the better ones in the league, I don't think that's crazy to imagine if Barmore can come back at full strength. And that's why, like, because we talked about some of these units, right, where it's like maybe the floor isn't higher, but you can sell yourself on the ceiling. I think with this defense, I can kind of get myself there on both because of the Rable aspect, just being like a more solid head coach.

And then the ceiling of players like Carlton Davis, like Milton Williams, hopefully Barmore being back. It's just top 10, I know that's a lot of ground to cover. but I don't know. I just, I do feel like they're going to be not nearly as embarrassing as they were last year.

We've also never seen Terrell Williams as a defensive coordinator. I think that's worth at least throwing out. The fact that it's year one defensive coordinator is just I think one more thing to keep in mind with that group. All right, three more I want to throw out here very quickly. The Rams absolutely could do it.

They felt cheap. They felt like the one everyone's doing, so I didn't want to. I mean, if you have, and this is how I would approach something like this, the same way I felt about the Giants. If you have a top, five to six front.

The volatility on the back end, you could easily stumble into it. And that's where the Rams are. Like the Rams are potentially have one of the best fronts in football. And if the secondary sort of figures it out, there is a path for them to be a top 10 defense. Two others that I think just when you look at the underlying numbers, I feel like they're prone for a bounce back, like prime for a bounce back. I would throw the bears out there.

Again, there are elements of this that worry me, Jalen Johnson being hurt and potentially not even being ready for the start of the season has me feeling like itchy, but Jaquan Brisker being back is huge. I think that no stars on the defensive line that they added this off season, but I think they have a lot more depth now than they did last year,

like having Grady Jarrett, having Dea O'Dango there. I feel much better about the floor of that group, even if I think they lack like a high-end difference maker. And then you look at the numbers last year, they were dead last and explosive play rate allowed. Like they were 14th in defensive success rate last season. So I think if they get a little bit luckier,

there's absolutely a scenario where they're like a back half of the top 10 defense. And then one that I think is actually pretty cheap. The Browns. Like, I mean, the Browns were- Them and the Jets, I think of the same way where it's just like,

the Browns were historically good defense last year. And you know where the Browns ranked in defensive success rate last season? In 2025. Fourth. Really? Was it just all explosive plays over Martin Everson's head? 31st and explosive play rate allowed. 31st.

And they only had 12 turnovers last year. They only created 12 turnovers, which was 30th in the NFL. They had 28 the year before that. And so even if that gets back to average, there are questions about this team personnel-wise, right? The Martin Emerson thing absolutely has to be mentioned. They're going to pop Greg Newsom outside. They're going to try to get by with like Cam Mitchell and the nickel. That concerns me.

I still think that they have solid but unspectacular players at most of the other defensive line positions. I think they've got a lot of, decent players. Isaiah McGuire, Alex Wright, Mason Graham as a rookie, but that might be enough with Miles Garrett to still have a very good pass rush. And I think the secondary, even without Emerson, can be pretty good. So I think they're going to be able to play a little bit less man without Emerson. They're going to have to sort through that. But I think they are the sort of team when you look at the underlying numbers with it that is prone for a pretty big bounce. It keeps saying prone, is prime for a pretty big bounce back here. I could definitely see that with the Browns. They were one of

those like, I think there were a few teams that I maybe wanted to pick, but just didn't know what to do with. And the Browns were definitely one of them where it's like, well, I think by the nature of the way that they play being a little bit more of an aggressive volatile defense, sometimes you just have those bad years. And so that's why I was like, okay, well, if they just, again, get back to average and then Miles Garrett's Miles Garrett, they could absolutely do it. So that could happen. I kind of thought of the Jets that way. And then the Bears were another one where because for the first seven weeks of the season, they kind of were a top 10 defense. I was like, well, I feel. I feel. I feel. I feel. I feel. like they already are that unit and then

just a million things imploded for them that I was just like, I almost don't even feel like the second half of the season was that real for them. That's kind of how I felt about the Jets defense too. I didn't want to pick them because like I still kind of think they're good. It's just they kind of all it just all fell apart once they fired Sala.

My issue with the Jets is especially up front, they are terrifyingly thin. It's terrifyingly thin. Right now, Jermaine Johnson's still hurt. Germain Johnson's not practicing yet. So it's Michael, Clemens and Will McDonald's.

And their defensive tackles other than Quinn and Williams, even right now, I'm staring at their R-Lad's Dept chart right now. Byron Cowert is penciled in as the starter next to Quinn and Williams. And even if it's not him, it's going to be like Derek Nottie. And so there are just enough fragile

parts of that depth chart that I feel a little bit less enthusiastic about that group. Yeah, that's fair. They've had a little bit of the I mean, it's funny that Sala was there, but like the arc that the Niners had a couple of years ago, where it's like, well, three years ago, the front was insane.

Now some of the faces are still there, but it's, Quentin Williams is there, Nick Bosa, but other than that, it's kind of deteriorated. Yeah, I mean, Will McDonald's, Jermaine Johnson? Like, those guys are good players, they're ascending players, but there is enough fragility with the interior defensive line specifically that I'm like, ah,

that one worries me a tiny bit. All right, that's all we've got for today. We'll be back with several more shows this week. I think we're going to have two training camp mail bags again because we have multiple beat writer conversations that we're having over the next week or so. Very much looking forward to that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys. Listen. We'll talk to you very soon.