The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Examining the best and worst drafting teams with Bill Barnwell

Episode Date: April 9, 2021

Which teams have nailed the NFL Draft over the past five seasons? Which teams have not? Robert Mays and ESPN’s Bill Barnwell dive deep into the data to determine the best and worst drafting teams, some of which may surprise you. Plus, they debate who is the most valuable draft pick over that time period. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hey guys, it's Robert. Just a heads up. I screwed up while recording this show with Barnwell. I took my memory card out before I press stop on my recorder. You guys don't care how it happened. I just want you to know that the audio quality is not going to be quite as good as it would be on a typical podcast. And it is all my fault. So I really had a great conversation. We had so much fun doing the show. I hope you'll stick with us, even though it doesn't sound as good as it typically does. I promise to never do this again. And I know that our producer Marissa is going to do a great job of making this sound great. So sorry about that. And I really appreciate you guys.

Listen. Talk to you soon. This is the athletic football show. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me today is my good friend Bill Barnwell. How are you doing, buddy? You got into that one quickly, huh?

Yeah. I mean, I don't know what else there is to say. I guess my good friend Bill Barnwell from ESPN. Sometimes when my friends are on, I forget to say where they worked. I just introduced Danny Kelly and just never mentioned that he worked at the ringer for the first like 20 minutes of the podcast. So, you know, it's all right. How do you doing, man?

How's your life before the draft been? Things are okay. I am half vaccinated. That's very exciting. Yeah, me too. It's great times. Are you, I guess you probably should have talked about what kind of vaccines. I will say, no one else has done this yet, to my knowledge.

I'm hoping that someone gets a Pfizer first shot and a modernist second shot and calls it a freestyle. That is, my understanding is that's not what I will be doing. I have my second vaccine shot on the same day I close on my new house, which is I haven't done anything in a year or a half. And the two things I've had to do since March of last year happened to fall on the same day, which is great. I don't like that. That's too much adult stuff for one day. It really is. I'm taking care of myself in ways that would have shocked you as recently as a year ago, let alone 10 years ago when we knew each other. So it's in the right direction. I've told you about what happened when I got offered the job at Grantland.

I'm sure I've heard the story. Literally, literally I could not pick up the call because I was driving the student driving car back to Newton North High School to pick up the 16-year-old who was going to be driving next as me. a 27-year-old who had not learned how to drive was driving this student driving car, could not pick up the phone, pick up the call to find out that I was getting my dream job because I was years behind any level of competence. It's crazy. I was thinking about it the other day. June will be 10 years, which is just absolutely wild. And I was thinking about this in March, because I remember moving out there in March 13th,

was my first day that I arrived there. And I was living in that terrible weird corporate housing that they had on Wilshire Boulevard. And it was like this really nice building. And remember it had a spin around TV in it. I remember watching that year's tournament. And Bill made me run the pool for the tournament. That was like one of my first official Grantland duties. And all of his friends were yelling at me because I was doing it wrong.

And I didn't know anyone that lived in Los Angeles. And I was just messing up this tournament pool. And I went to the office, but there was nothing to do because no one was there. 2011 was a very, very strange time. Get those oral histories ready. God, I don't remember most of that year. So when somebody eventually and inevitably write something about that, I don't know how much hope I'm going to be.

The only day that I think I vividly remember will be recounting the day where the same day we forgot to renew the domain name for the website, which was in July, it was a Sunday or Saturday. It was definitely on the weekend. And we walked into the office because we all went in as like a crisis team, was me and Lane and Jay, and the air conditioning wasn't working because it was the weekend, so they just had it off. So we're sitting there freaking out about the website domain name, and it's just 90 degrees in this terrible antiseptic Disney office. I'm like, what the hell did I get myself into?

The good thing is the fine people at the athletic have a reminder to renew the domain name, I'm assuming. It's great. They seem to know what they're doing, which is a big help. All right. So we've spent the last couple weeks on this show looking forward to this year's draft. And obviously, there's so many things we can do. We've dug in this position group specifically. We talked about some more wide-ranging issues. There's been a lot of intrigue about how the top 10 might unfold. But today, instead of looking forward to this year's draft and talking about the prospects, I wanted to take a look back. And you were the perfect person I wanted to do this with. One, because one of us needed to make an actual spreadsheet and have a formula for how to do this,

I won't tell the listeners which of us did that, but it wasn't me. And what I wanted to do was I wanted to kind of find a way to evaluate which teams have been the best and worst at maximizing their draft capital over the last five years. And when we originally, I presented this to you, you were hesitant about it because I think you thought it was going to be a way to evaluate those GMs. But that's not what I want to do. because I think we know that over time, most teams aren't good or bad at drafting. Like, it's a lot more random than that. But I do think that looking at this and seeing which teams have succeeded or failed in the draft is a good way to understand what good and bad drafts do for teams.

Like, what are the actual impacts of doing well or doing poorly in the draft? And how does that affect the other decisions that you have to make? Yeah, I think that's fair. And I think we can have a conversation about the randomness and, you know, there's a lot to say about that. I think we sort of have that as an ideal in our head. And yet I think everyone, if given the choice, you'd rather have Ozzie Newsom run a draft than say me, which is, again, fair and smart. And I would do that too. But, you know, like, I think there is a question of like, given how much we invest, given how much effort is put in here, how much do the returns actually matter?

We can talk about that, but I do think there is a lot to discuss about how the recent drafts have actually impacted teams. Because I think you can see a lot of, you know, what we sort of form in our heads about certain teams or certain GMs come down to one pick or one year of selections. And I think that, you know, as we get sort of bigger samples on some of the jams who have been around for a while when it comes to a Bill Belichick or John Schneider or the aforementioned Aussie. Newsom, you know, it can go in so many different directions. I think we get these sort of different areas where we have guys who look like geniuses who then turn out to look like idiots or vice versa. And the reality is, I mean, we're just basing it on a very, very small sample of information. But for these teams, that's really all you might get. It's so fast how quickly it all changes. May it can change on a dime.

And you think about how recent the Jason Light trading up for Roberto Aguio pick was. I mean, it didn't happen that long ago. And as, I mean, that team won the Super Bowl a couple months ago. And we're talking about how well they built that team. And I do think they did a great job in putting together that roster. It was arguably the best roster in the league by the end of the season. But it wasn't that long ago that we were making a lot of jokes about them trading up for a kicker in the second round. And we'll get to the box in a bit.

But I think the other team that you mentioned, that's the most illustrative of all this, might be Seattle. because if we look at it over a 10 year period, Seattle still has the best drafting record. You looked at over five in 10 years. We're going to talk about five. But if you extend it out to 10, it's still the Seahawks because of what they did in the early part of the 2010s.

And in recent years, it's been almost memeable how bad their drafting has been. Like it's a joke on Seahawks Twitter about how misguided some of these choices have been. And this is somebody that we considered the best drafter in the league as recently as like 2012, 2013. So that's the amazing part to me is just how fickle all of this is consistently. Yeah.

And if you go back to those Seahawks teams from the turn of the decade, do we have a name, by the way, for the tens? Is there a... I don't know, because I almost said the aughts. And I was like, that's not right. It's not the odds. But then what's after the odds? No one has ever had to do with this problem before, unfortunately.

What are we going to do with the 20s? Are we just going to call it the 20s? Because the 20s means something else. Yeah, I feel like we can erase that. Like, I don't think they're going to be roaring 20s. We're off to a pretty terrible start so far. They haven't been roaring so far. I can tell you that much.

So, I mean, I would say that I think we have to ask the questions about how much Scott McLuhan came into play for the Seahawks in the beginning of the decade. And then that extends to every sort of group, right? I mean, you know, with the Saints, them bringing Jeff Ireland in is sort of credited for their great draft, which we're going to talk about later on. you know, and Jeff Ireland wasn't all that great of a GM in Miami. McLuhan had some success in Washington, but obviously didn't stay there in the long term. I mean, there's so many things to come into play here that we have to, you know, it's so hard to parse out credit for what works and doesn't work. And then to the point about the bucks, I mean, you know, having Tom Brady there probably made a lot of those picks look better.

I mean, the defense had great advanced metrics in 2019, but only got attention really in 2020 because their quarterback wasn't turning the ball over three or four times. a game. So I really feel like it's also where you find what kinds of players you find in the draft, right? Of course. The bucks found the meat of their roster in the draft, especially if you look at the 2018 and 2019 classes, but we'll get to them. There are a lot of stars on that team that haven't been found within this range. And I also think, talk about GMs that our opinions that have changed, I think that both of us would probably look at what the dolphins have done over the last few years under Chris Greer and say, you know, this is smart process for the most part.

that was going to be my question for you. Actually, it just came to mind for me, not in our little Google Doc. Not little. I don't want to be disparaging, but not in our Google Doc, but. It's a robust Google Doc. Yeah, I was going to say. Oh, yeah, your chart is robust. The Google Doc is whatever.

No. I'm going to ask you a question, though. I want to ask you this. We'll get started. We're going to talk about a lot of things. But Patrick Mahomes is the most valuable draft pick of the last five years, correct? I think no, right? No.

I think he's the best player of the last five years. but if we're accumulating total value over the last five years, it's probably Dak Prescott, right? I'm not even bringing up, Dak. I think you could make that case. I think Mahomes is probably more valuable still. But anyway, I'm not trying to really compare this. He's the most valuable player,

but I think an accumulated value since they were drafted, it would probably be Prescott up to this point. Well, I may ask, the question I want to ask you is this. It's really not about Mahomes or Dak, but I think that those are both fair points, is Laramie Tunsell the most valuable draft pick? It's a great question. Because I don't know if you noticed he's been pretty good for the Miami Dolphins in terms of getting them a lot of other players who are valuable.

It's so funny. You mentioned that because for tomorrow I'm writing in the athletic about the debate that the Bengals might be having about offensive tackle versus receiver and how hard it is to find tackles. Because if you look at, I did it by your PFF grades and a couple other things. if you look at the top 32 tackles in the NFL by that metric from last year, 23 of them were drafted in the first two rounds and most of them by the team that drafted them. The three guys who were first round picks that weren't drafted by their team were all traded for at least the 51st pick in the draft and oftentimes more than that and then were given massive extensions.

Like if you drafted offensive tackle in the first round, even if he doesn't become a star for you or doesn't play for you for 10 years, you're probably going to get a decent return for that guy if he ends up being okay, which is interesting. Yeah. As a Giants fan, I am going to clutch onto that closely and hope that continues to be the case. Well, we'll be getting to the Giants. Before we get to the specific teams, do you want to explain the methodology for how you figured out this list and how we came up with our top five and our bottom five? Okay. I did it really simple. Please don't get mad at me. I know it's truly more complicated than this. I did not account for replacement value on the roster. I just took Chase values, or Chase

Stewart's. Chase Stewart's draft value chart for each team. The draft value they've accumulated over the last five years, obviously the first pick being most valuable. I think everything after 219 is basically true to this world, maybe 224 is true to that's mostly worthless. But their draft value for each team and the approximate value, generally, generated by the players they drafted at pro football reference.com over the last five years and divided the two. So I just calculated the approximate value, divided it by draft value, and got a number. A proximate value is approximate. It is not something where I would sit here and say a guy who accumulated 15 points of approximate value is better than a guy who accumulated 14 points,

but a guy who accumulated 15 points is probably better than a guy who accumulated five. And I think the numbers we got mostly match up with, I think, are perceptions, but there's enough in the way of differences that I feel like we have something interesting to discuss. I think usually that's a sign you develop something pretty solid. It's not as if, you know, the Jaguars have the best drafts of the last five years. I think that would be concerning. But the teams were at the bottom, generally pretty bad, but some reasons I think they might have improved in recent years or reasons to think that they are struggling on the teams who are at the top. Mostly pretty good, but I think there's some interesting conversations to be had about those teams.

There certainly is, and we'll get into that. But I agree with you. I mean, for the most part, there are some surprises, but I think that overall they're the teams you would expect, and there's a lot to dig into. So let's start with the bottom five. So the bottom five that you had, going from 32 to 28, were the Raiders, the Cardinals, the Jets, the Bucks, and the Giants.

And that list makes sense except for the Bucks. So we'll get to them in a second. So starting with the Raiders, When you did this and you saw the Raiders come out as the worst team in terms of maximizing their draft capital over the last five years, what was your reaction? I thought about that 2019 draft. I thought about Clellan Farrell 4th, Josh Jacobs 24th, Jonathan Abram 27, and Trayvon Mullen as well at 40. I mean, the first-round picks they've had over the last few years have been just absolute disasters. Carl Joseph 2016, okay safety, but not a guy who they really trusted all that much.

much. Gary and Conley in 2017, no longer on the roster. Colton Miller, 2018. For a third round pick like seconds after he was drafted. And, and, and you know what? Probably a good trade. Like I think they got, they probably got good value in the long run. Colton Miller, who has improved over the course of his run? And it's a solid-tackle.

It's definitely the best pick of the bunch. But for all in 2019, the fourth overall pick, a guy who might not even be a starter this upcoming year. Josh Jacobs, a 24, a guy the rate. don't even trust to catch passes. Jonathan Abram, like such a weird player, like the Atari Bigby of modern football. And just cease thing, sees thing, runs really fast to try and hit thing. If things get in the way or if things move, that's not his problem.

And then even this year, Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnett, Ruggs, an inconsistent year, only 20 catches, did miss a couple games with injuries. Damon Arnett missed some time. Of course, blew a coverage. He was the guy who was in coverage in Tampa 2 on that big Dolphins catch that set up the loss that cost the Raiders or shot at the playoffs. I mean, this is a team that has had a lot of picks to work with, and they just have not delivered meaningful starters. And I think this is not just a draft thing for the Raiders. With the John Gruden, Mike Mayock era in Las Vegas, whether it's the draft or whether it is free agents, the guys they have brought in who are expecting. to do X have done like 20% of what they've been expected to do across the board.

We've seen guys like Marcus Joyner and Corey Littleton, both from the Rams, looked like just replacement level players after looking like stars with the Rams. And I think that's got to be disconcerting if you have a coach on a 10-year, $100 million contract with personnel control. It's funny because you can see the direct results of missing on these picks, right? PJ Hall was a second round pick from 2018 who's already off the roster. And they had to pump money into their interior to the defensive line this offseason, guys like Quentin Jefferson because they need players there.

You have Cluon and Farrell go fourth overall in 2019. Arden Key was a third round pick. Their lack of pass rush is the reason they had to spend on Yonik and Giackeye this offseason. Jacobs having deficiencies and not being that totally complete player is why you have to go out and use head scratching money on a guy. You don't have to, to be clear. You certainly don't have to, but I'm sure it's one of the reasons they did.

And then you have two, at least the tops of the drafts in 2016 and 2017, where it's not as if those guys were slightly disappointing. It's zero. Like Gary and Connoe and Obi Moffalo in 2017, that's zero. And then Jihad Ward was their second round pick in 2016. So, I mean, they got so little out of those classes. and the good teams, the teams that have really made the most of it, even if it was five years ago,

those guys are still contributors on that team in some respect, or they were traded away or they hit pre-agency and a comp pick of some sort is coming. That's just not the case with these guys. I mean, the trades that they've made are for next to nothing or for significantly less than these guys were drafted for. And we've seen the ramifications of drafting like this. It has made the Raiders,

it's put them in a position where they're scrambling all of the time to make up for these missteps. It's so obvious. Yeah. And I think just it has to be disconcerting because, like, you can't count on getting better. I mean, if you can't make the guys who are coming into your organization better, like, that's a fundamental flaw with what you're doing. And maybe the changes that the Concep Coordinator are going to help. Maybe they've finally figured things out. But it sure seems like this is a problem that isn't.

pandemic throughout the roster. I mean, I don't know. Maybe Obi-Melathanu would have been like a great chess piece for somebody if he'd ended up in the right place. Now he was with the Patriots for a brief spell out of football now, I believe. Maybe there's with the Niners now. But like, you know, like maybe if these guys went to different places, it would be a different story.

But I mean, Farrell was a guy who nobody expected to come off the board at four. And since then, everyone else has pretty much been right. He was on a guy who should have come off the board. that early. So, you know, it's just, it's hard to think it's going to get significantly better, even though they have spent a ton of money this offseason. They spent a lot of money every off season. It feels like, all right, let's get to the next team here.

The Cardinals were at 31. Were you surprised the Cardinals were this low? Considering that they have looked like a team on the rise a little bit last year, you know, they obviously picked number first overall a couple years ago, but I don't, they didn't necessarily jump out to me as a team that absolutely would be in this tranche of teams. but I mean, they're the second worst team on this list. Oh, I mean, I'm not surprised at all.

And I think it's just, 2016, the first draft we have in this database, this five-year run, is the draft that has the most value. It's the most impact because I didn't wait this for a year. So they have five years to prove themselves. That Cardinals draft in 2016 is one of the worst drafts, I think we have for any team over the last five years. Robert and Kim Dice in the first round, Brandon Williams, the guy who Jimmy Garoppolo made famous in his first NFL start in the third. and the third round, Evan Bome, Evan Bame? I think it's Bame.

Bame. Evan Bame, by far, has more approximate value than I think everyone else in this draft class combined. Markey Christian, Coltoner, who I thought multiple times, it's not a real person, and is Harlan Miller. I mean, it's just, that's about as bad as it gets for a team that actually has first, second round picks to work, or first, sorry, first and third round picks to work with. I believe that second rounder is the second rounder they give up for Chandler Jones. So maybe you give them credit for that.

We're not doing that here. But 2017, Hassan Redick, a guy who was lost for three years before impressing in his last year as an edge rush, you're kind of finding a role. 2018, you know all about Josh Rosen, don't need to get into that. 2019, of course, Kyler Murray looks great, but Byron Murphy has been inconsistent at corner. Andy Isabella, their second rounder, a guy drafted before D.K. Metcalf and a couple other guys, has not been an impact player. It was a healthy scratch at the end of last year. guys like Hakeem Butler in the fourth round, have not been impact players. You know, Chad Williams, a 2017 third rounder at receiver, was basically an unfactor.

Dorian Johnson didn't play in the NFL. And even this year, Isaiah Simmons was a guy who was lost for most of the season. So I feel like, you know, having Kyler goes a long way and Buda Baker's been a great player. But really, it's been a couple hits and then a lot of lean spots at the top of the draft for some of the players the Cardinals have drafted. I mean, outside of Buda Baker and Kyle Murray, the next spot, best player in this list is Christian Kirk. And like, Christian Kirk has been fine, but Christian Kirk is not somebody you get excited about. And that's why, and that's why when I was, I saw them on the Swiss, I was like, oh man, really the Cardinals. But it's beyond the Josh Rosen thing.

The Josh Rosen thing is obvious. When you punt on a first round pick, it almost automatically puts you, excuse me, you punt out a top 10 pick. It almost automatically puts you in contention to be on this list. But then you look at the other first round picks. And the Kibcce thing is almost as bad. I mean, he played 29 games, but he's played 29 games, but it's not as if they got a lot more out of him than they got out of Josh Rosen. And like you said, Redick had won decent season. Last year was his best year. And now he's on a different team.

So this team has gotten almost nothing from the draft. And you've seen how they've had to respond. Like you mentioned, Chandler Jones was a guy they traded for. J.J. Watt comes in as a free agent. They have to go trade for Rodney Hudson. They have to trade for DeAndre Hopkins. And while these are good players, you know, they had to, there's a premium. It's not as simple as saying, well, the second round pick they gave up for

DeAndre Hopkins, that's their second round pick. DeAndre Hopkins makes like $25 million this year. Yeah. Like that's not how any of this goes. And that's the problem is that when you have to start extending yourself in other areas, it's difficult. It's difficult to thread that needle. And, you know, this is a team that I don't know how you feel about them. They're confusing to me. Like, I just don't know what to expect from them this year. Like, do you think that they're going to be very good? I think they're going to be what they were in 2019. They're going to have some awesome games. Or, sorry, 2020.

Like, you know, they're going to have some great games. Kyler's going to look awesome for a stretch. But it feels like they're going to go as far as their top five or six guys can carry them. And in the second half, top five or six guys are like my age. Yeah. But like when Kyler wasn't 100% last year in the second half, we saw what happened. You know, when DeAndre Hopkins was covered in those games, the final couple weeks of the year, they had nobody else who could win one-on-one. You know, they are a team that is.

very Texans-esque to me in a lot of ways where it kind of feels like when things collapse, they could collapse really quickly and in a really ugly fashion. But they also have the upside of saying, hey, if our six or seven stars play great, you know, we are a Super Bowl contender. Maybe they are. But high risk and high reward, I guess. But the thing that always bothers me about this, and maybe this is another drafting conversation to have is, like,

is there any other line of work where you could screw up like the most important part of your job so badly and then do the same thing over again the following year and succeed and like get credit for it like you're a genius like steve kine when beat writers tweet about not beat writers maybe when national writers tweet about steve kine like fall over themselves so what a smart move he made to move on from josh rosen like dude you're the guy who drafted josh rosen like that was your email but i do think that some teams aren't will going to cut bait that quickly. And you deserve some credit for that, even if it was a mistake that you were the one responsible for it.

It kind of feels like you should get a little bit of the blame for it. That's fair. I think a little bit of the blame, or a lot of the blame is totally fair. But I do think you should get some credit for moving on because we've seen teams commit to bad decisions just because they were bad decisions and just because they made them. So I think it's okay to give him some credit, but not a lot. And yeah, you say the six or seven stars on this team, I don't know if there are six or seven stars on this team.

Like, there are a lot of big names on this team, but I don't know right now how many stars or blue chip type players there are on this team in 2021. Okay. 2016, it's a different conversation. Okay, we got Chandler Jones, Buddha, that's two, Kyler, three, Rodney Hudson, four, Giandre five. That's fair. And like, JJ Y, I think is still a good player, but, like, again, I just, I don't know.

It feels like, and if you're looking at the mistakes that this team made, and we're trying to kind of bucket the missteps from these teams, I almost think the Raiders are an example of a team that made really low upside bets and didn't get much back from them. I mean, getting a guy like Farrell who clearly just didn't have as much upside as other pass rushers have had that you would draft in the top five. And we knew that in the moment. That was everything about his pre-draft evaluation.

That's one of those bets. Safety and a running back in the first round are those bets. For the Cardinals, it feels like their consistent mistake that they have made is that they're drafting these guys that don't necessarily have a position and they're betting on their ability to figure it out. Right. I mean, Hassan Redick was like that. I mean, Buda Baker was almost like that to an extent.

Yeah, for sure. He's undersized. And obviously, Isaiah Simmons was like that. So they've insisted. DM B.Cann. Yeah. So it's interesting. And that has worked out for them, right?

Like Tyrone Matthew is one of the hits for them. But after that, it has gone south several different times. And it's funny because their third round picks over the last five years, it's been a way saying, right? Like Mason Colvade is traded to the Vikings. Chad Williams is on that list. Zach Allen hasn't done much for them. But before that, the two years before that kind of trend started, they got David Johnson in the third round, John Brown in the third round, and Tyron Matthew in the third round.

which there is no skill to this. You're not good at finding guys in the middle rounds. For the most part, you just got hot at the right time and then got cold right after that. Is it weird to think that David Johnson was watched like an exciting sleeper player? It's so weird. It's like to watch. That happens all the time though, right? Like it's almost the inevitable lifespan of a running back where the guys that were once exciting become not exciting

and the plotters that you don't want on your fantasy team really fast. Like Lamar Miller is a perfect example of that. Dude, Todd Gurley is 26. God. That's so depressing. It's just like, get this dude away from me at all costs. Like the absolute drakes of the roster. So I'm so sad.

That's really, really upsetting. Speaking of really sad and upsetting, let's talk about the Jets. Thank you for that. Jets are at 30. I think this is the team that I would just expect it to be on this list. I mean, obviously, they're right there with, the Raiders. I mean, you look at what the Jets have done.

They have one all pro and three pro bowls on this list. Jamal Adams accounts for most of those. It's all of it. I mean, it has been an unmitigated. Marcus made it make a pro ball? I guess not. So Jamal Adams is all of that. And if you go back, it makes total sets, right?

2016, Darren Lee and Christian Hackenberg in the first and second round, it's hard to do worse than that. It's really, really difficult. And it doesn't get much better. I mean, the Sam Darnal trade, obviously up. They missed a second round pick in 2018 and 2019. Their third round pick in 2019 was Jekai Polite. They cut instantly.

And they haven't gotten much out of anybody in the middle rounds. The saddest pick of this entire group, though, might be our Darius Stewart in the third round in 2017, who came off the board before Chris Godwin and Kenny Galday. That's very sad. I didn't realize, I didn't realize, Chad Hansen was a Jets pick in the fourth round that year. When Chad Hanson is one of the bright spots, you know you haven't done very well.

Chad Hansen averaged nearly 10 yards a target for the Texans last year. He was like a good, like DFS sleeper, the final month of the year. And it's now a free agent again, if I'm not mistaken. I mean, the sad thing and the scary thing for Jets fans is that if we were going back to the 10-year version of this, they would also be the third-worst drafting team over the last 10 years. I mean, they were, it's not just like the last five. years of missing talent. They have a decade of questionable drafts and missing talent. Going back to, Jesus, I mean, Dorel Revis in 2007, but after that it's Vernon Goldston,

Dustin Keller, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Wilson, Mo Wilkerson, Quentin Copels, D. Milliner, Sheldon Richardson, Calvin Pryor. Stephen Hill in the second round. You know, like, guys who, like, you're not going to have guys from 10 years past on your roster, all that. frequently the Patriots do it with guys like Deffin McCordy. That's mostly the exception. But like those guys turned into nothing and the Jets had to sign players to replace those nothings. And those guys haven't worked out. And so the Jets don't have the cap space because they signed those players that they didn't work out. And the guys they drafted to maybe hopefully replace those players in the long run also haven't worked out. So it's just this huge mess

of just, you know, trying to patch up hole after hole after hole. And, you know, I don't know how this latest iteration is going to work out. It seems they're going to draft a quarterback and two. I thought they did pretty well in the Sam Darnel trade in terms of getting that return back to Carolina. But, I mean, this is a thing where Joe Douglas has his work cut out for him. He has his work cut out for him, but at least he started from nothing. At least he walked into it with Reese, especially after one year.

But I'm kidding. It's funny, but I think it's almost better to have an expansion team with all of the draft capital and all of the cap space available to you rather than trying to fix something that's four or five steps away from one. And that's what this is. I mean, they walked into a blank slate and now they have a chance to remake this thing. And I don't know how it's going to go, right? I mean, they're a draft last year. It's not as if it was some roaring success. Ashton Davis, isn't that exciting. Let's see what Denzel Mims can be in a better offense with a better quarterback. I think that people are still are hopeful about him. Mackay Beckton looked really good.

But for the most part, this is still very, very early in the process without much proven talent on the roster. Absolutely. And I mean, I think you have to give them, ask you a general that's time. Like this is a, this is not a two-year project. This is a four or five-year project. And I think we've seen, for example, with the Raiders, Reggie McKenzie, who proceeded, he was acute to the 2016 draft from the draft, but was in the prior five years a very good drafter in terms of finding talent for that roster. They were in a terrible top situation.

That 2014 draft is like one of the best. drafts of the last 10 years. Like they turn things around, but then they had one bad year, one bad draft, McKenzie gets fired, Gruden takes over. I mean, like, that's the sort of the tough part for Joe Douglas is, even if you do everything right and you do build a winner, you might be one bad year away from getting fired anyway. And it helps when an owner is willing to stick with you even through those bad years, which takes us to the bucks at 29.

Yeah. I was very surprised to see them on this list just because of the narrative around how strong in that roster was that won the Super Bowl. But if you look at the actual drafts in this stretch of time, specifically, it makes total sense, right? You look at the 2016 draft, total dud. Vernon Hargraves in the second round, Noah Spence in the second. Vernon Hargraves in the first round.

He was the 11th overall pick. That pick was originally belonged to Maya Chicago Bears who traded up for Leonard Floyd, which we'll get to later here. Vernon Hargraves in the first, Noah Spence in the second, and then trading up for a of Aguayo in the second as well. And in 2017, you know, you get Chris Godwin in the third, which is a fantastic pick. Yep. But OJ Howard has been hurt a lot.

And other than that, you know, there are guys that have been solid, but not stars. You know, Vita Vez has missed a decent amount of games. Carlton Davis had a really good season this year. Jordan Whitehead. Again, the meat of the roster. But for the most part, the guys that make up the high-end spots on the Bucks roster are guys they either found in free agency or through trade like shack barrett jpp brady or guys they found just before this stretch started so lavante david donovan smith in the second round mike evans so it's

almost a weird thing we're doing it by this five years stretch doesn't give them credit for some of the hits they had and some of the ways they built this roster but by this exercise they absolutely are in this group of teams yeah i think just 2016 2017 they got one player out of that class really and it was Godwin in the third round. This is waited again for draft value, so missing on Hargreaves at 11 is pretty awful. And Hargreaves is about as bad as an NFL cornerback can be, both with the Bucks and with the Texans.

In 2017, Justin Evans turned out to be a sort of viable long-term starter at safety. It's so funny that those spots were just a wasteland for them. They had so much trouble filling their secondary spots for years. They took a ride on the Chris Conti train for a second. MJ Stewart was drafted by this team. And then they had a really nice run over the last couple years. It just, again, it turns on such a dime. It's amazing to watch in real time, like over time, as you consider how the shifts work.

Yeah, Justin Evans' Achilles, I believe, kind of seems to have ended his career or saw this career. Kendall Beckwith, did he get into a car accident? That I don't remember. I believe Kendall Beckwith gone to a car accident and that kind of ended his career. And then again, I think as this time period goes on, if we look at these drafts three or four years from now, I think the guys who were drafted in the last couple of years, Devin White, Sean Murphy, Bunting, Tristan Worf's, Antoine Winfield. I mean, those guys are, you know, above average players already, in some cases, stars. I think are going to continue to be players who are real difference makers.

I think they'll look a lot better if we look at this, this five-year period, five years from now. Absolutely. And I think that the Wirfs and Winfield draft really shows the power of what one draft can do for you to put you over the top. And I think that when we talk about the draft, we often overrate what a single draft class can mean. How much is a rookie really going to change your fortress in a single year? I mean, I think you could argue that the Bucks might not have won the Super Bowl without Tristan Wars. Yeah. And which is crazy to think about.

But I think that that leads to mistakes. And I think that it'll lead to mistakes for the rest of time because you have instances of one team hitting on a couple guys and winning them a Super Bowl. And then teams would be like, well, if we draft for need at this one spot and overreach a little bit, maybe that'll take us over the top. It just doesn't work that often. But when it does, damn, does it look good. Well, the good thing is it would be embarrassing if a team drafted way higher than the bucks and took another tackle. And yet he was like the fourth best tackle from his draft class after the first year. That would be embarrassing.

What kind of team would do that, Mace? The Giants are at 28. I'm sorry for you here, buddy. I should have known that they were going to be in this range if we were to do this exercise. Two Pro Bowls from drafted Giants since 2016, two. Who are they? Evan Ingram has one, and I think Sequan has one. How did Evan Ingram get to a Pro Bowl?

Good for him. I'm not sure. There are some real bummers on this list. I totally forgot that Eli Apple was the 10th overall pick. Oh, yeah. I totally forgot. And there's just a lot of that in this roster. And I think that what we said about the Raiders feels like it also fits the Giants to me.

Sure does. Because even the hits on this list, the hits quote unquote, there are guys that just don't move the needle, right? Whether it's positionally or the types of players they are, like Delvin Tomlinson, I think is a really nice player. He might be the best player on this list that's not Sequan Barkley. But he's a defensive tackle. And then you have guys like Will Hernandez, you know, Sterling Shepard is a nice player, but how much does Sterling Shepard move the needle?

I mean, there's a lot of those kind of guys in here, and there are very few stars, and the guys with star talent have been injured. I mean, Sequan just hasn't been able to play, and he's also a running back. Yeah, and I mean, like, it's not just that. I mean, the first they've had, let's see, one, two. The DeAndre Baker thing is brutal.

I mean, it's a huge reason they're on this list. Well, you have Eli Apple, who was 10th overall pick who lasted two years before getting traded to the Saints pretty much like was run out of town. That's bad. Maybe that's one bad draft. That was before, that was before Gettelman, right? Yes.

That was. I believe so. That was the year they made the playoffs. So that was 2016 and 2017 are Jerry Reese drafts. And then 18, 19, 1920 are Gettlement drafts. But either way, 2017, Evan Engerman, a guy who has been inconsistent at best, a talented player, but not a guy who has been a real difference maker. By the way, who also probably works best out of the slot, which is where Storing

Shepard works out works best, and where Golden Tate works best, the player they signed to add depth to their roster at receiver. Turns out adding three-slot receiver is not the best idea. 2018, Sequin Barclay, I mean, yes, I understand Sequin Berkeley is talented. I don't blame him, but you can't make an argument that says this has been a good pick. injuries, you know, fine player running back. And obviously a guy who I think in the right offense would be incredible. But like when you draft a running back with the second overall pick, you're expecting

him to be a transcendent player. And Sycambe Parkley has not been a transcendent player. And then three first round picks in 2019. This is the get-right. This is supposed to be the draft that spurs you forward. It's so funny how similar it is to the Raiders. It's crazy how many similarities there are. Yeah.

Over-drafted player at six. Daniel Jones. 17, Dexter Lawrence. okay, fine, like an okay defensive tackle. DeAndre Baker, yeah, I mean, not a great situation when your first-john-pick was, by the way, terrible as a rookie, just a straight-up awful football player as a rookie starting full 16-game season and then cut afterwards for, what was the exact situation with Andrew Baker again? Oh, I don't even know if I want to get into it.

There was like a robbery of some kind, but I don't know. I really don't know the details. I feel uncomfortable talking about it. Anyway, so let go after a year either way. Just a disaster. I mean, just an organization that has just whiffed on so many of these key players. And again, much like the Jets, you go back through a lot of the run for the prior decade. You know, they had really struggled to get players healthy.

I mean, I'd wrote about it for Grantland, I think, at the time. Like so many of the players they counted on in the top two or three rounds got hurt, whether it was David Wilson having a career ending neck injury or. Akeem Hicks, Will Beattie struggled to stay healthy, right? Yeah. All of those guys. Marvin Austin. Ruben Randall got hurt.

Odell, I mean, even after his first two incredible years, got hurt, had ankle issues. You know, and just that adds up after a while. I mean, Eric Flowers, not working out led to the Giants drafting Andrew Thomas with the fourth, with the fourth big, and signing Nate Solder in free agency. I mean, there's just compounded mistake after mistake. How do you feel about where they are right now? I mean, obviously, I haven't talked to you about this, just the flurry of signings and everything else. Do you think the overall health of the organization is in a decent place at this point?

No. Why would it be? I don't know. I don't have an answer either way. I was curious how you felt about it. Like, they are a team that is not close to winning a Super Bowl that's having to sort of smooth out holes by signing Cal Rudolph and Logan Ryan, that somehow is not trading a Seventh-thron pick to Tennessee for Dorie Jackson and he's signing him to a deal that pays him much

more than what the fifth-year option would have paid on his contract. A team that is so thrilled, so incredibly thrilled that they got something right with Leonard Williams, that they're paying him like he's Khalil Mack, even though he has not been at any point of his pro career. that's in a market where wide receivers are getting one-year deals. Paying Kennedy, a player I like, an exorbitant sum of money on a multi-year deal. There is like this vision of what the giants are and how close they are in Dave Gettleman's head, and they are so far from that vision in reality.

And I know people love Joe Judge. Joe Judge says the right thing in interviews. I think Joe Judge seems to be a smart guy, I guess. but like, you know, I just, it's so exhausting to have people like just treat the giants like they are, this team that is so close to just being a Super Bowl contender or a meaningful contender because they almost won the division at 6 and 10 last year. Like it's just they're so far away, so, so far away. And a lot of why they are so far away is because they have screwed up their draft picks year after year.

I think their defense could be good this year. it's going to be fine. Like, someone tweeted out that when the Giants signed Adori Jackson, they had the best secondary in football, which I was very confused when I saw that. That's probably a stretch.

But I think it's an interesting group. Like, let's say like Xavier McKinney comes back up healthy in year two. You know, you could do some things with Logan Ryan, with him, Peppers, and McKinney.

Like, that's an intriguing safety group. Adori Jackson probably isn't worth what they paid him. But I still think overall it's a useful group of players. I don't know what the pass rush is going to look like with $25 million a year, Leonard Williams is really your only guy that can get after the quarterback. But I don't know. I like the secondary.

I don't think it's the best secondary in football, but I think it's a good group of players. Sure. I will say, though, Dave Gettlement spent money this offseason like the cap wasn't $185 million. He was operating as though it was just status quo. Nothing had changed. It was $220 million. You throw that money around. None of the deals they signed, whether it was.

was even Kyle Rudolph, but the big ones especially, Galday, Adore Jackson, what they re-signed Leonard Williams for. None of those deals would hint that the cap shrunk this year and that teams were trying to pinch pennies. I'm just picturing like week 13, Mike Lennon is like chucking swing passes to Devante Bucker. I forgot Mike Lennon was involved here. Devante Bucker in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss to the Cowboys. Oh, goodness gracious. All right. So those are the five teams. Do you have, we talked about the surprise.

I think the bucks are definitely the surprise. Do you think there are any overarching lessons to be learned from this group? Do you think that there's anything that was a consistent problem, something that we can look at that ties these five teams together, the teams might be able to learn from in the future? Yes. You don't know better than the group. I think in a lot of cases here, we have teams who said, I know best.

I am going to take this player who doesn't profile as a difference maker at a key position very high in the draft. Or I'm going to take a player who has productivity concerns or effort concerns like a Robert and Kim Dice. I'm going to take a player who is not at a position that is treated as valuable like running back. And those moves almost always do not work out. There are exceptions. You do have guys who didn't show great effort in college who becomes star pros. It happens. You have guys who are drafted high at unexciting positions who turn into superstars.

I think, you know, that will happen occasionally. But the chances of you're getting that right are so slim. And the chances of finding players, those positions who are valuable later in the draft, is so good that I think you have to have some part of you that listens to history and says, even if I think Seekwon Barkley is a transcendent player, the number of things that can go wrong, whether it's not having a good offensive line, whether it's not having, whether he can't stay healthy, whether it's all these different things make it so unlikely that he is going to be worth the second overall pick relative to having a less expensive running back and a draft pick at a critical position.

Maybe Sam Darnold would not have worked out better with the Giants. I don't think we can say with any level of confidence what he would have turned out to be. But, I mean, imagine if the Giants take Quentin Nelson with that pick. like why not pick why not pick the guy if you love offensive lineman if you love the running game why not pick the guy who is like the freaky offensive lineman as opposed to the freaky running back but that is a like getting that one one decision wrong set the giants back a couple of years it's amazing you really do see it and that's why i wanted to do this exercise because i think visualizing it is really telling and i learned so much just by looking at where those picks were

and which types of picks they were but you just see the impact that missing on a top 10 and pick has. All of these teams have one of those. And there's some consistently bad drafting at all levels of the draft here.

But the impact of missing on one of those completely, you just can't recover from it. You can't recover from it in short order, certainly. And I absolutely think

that the low ceiling swings on some of these guys is a consistent problem. It is jarring how the Giants and the Raiders fall into a similar boat with that. Where you have guys along the defensive line,

a spot that you absolutely can find difference makers in the first round. But if you're drafting guys who don't profile that way as players, there's only so much you can get back from it. You're Cleveland Farrell's and your Dexter Lawrence's. I mean, it's, these happen in the same draft, and we were having those discussions on draft night. It's not as if this is hindsight.

I remember that night. I was at the ringer offices, and we were just talking about that. Dexter Lawrence, even if he's a decent player, what are you really going to get from that? And this is a year after Sequan Barkley, and the Raiders didn't do it. the Raiders did it in the same draft.

They had three times of the same draft. Yes. Where they had their low ceiling pass rusher and then their first round running back. And it really is. And a box safety. Yeah. I mean, it's just crazy how these things are really consistent and they do have tons of different

similarities. One team that was just out of this group that I wanted to talk about. Okay. Because I think it's really obvious kind of the same impact that it's had on them is the Bengals. Yeah. They were sixth on this list. I mean, you can just see it.

so tangibly how the Bengals lack of homegrown talent has affected them. I mean, their roster right now, if you look at it, I would say the only homegrown star they have that wasn't drafted last year. And I mean, those guys, who knows what we can say about them yet is Jesse Bates. And outside of Jesse Bates, they really only have a couple homegrown starters that were drafted before last year, guys like Trey Hopkins and Jonah Williams and Tyler Boyd, all of whom, even if you like Tyler Boyd, he's not moving the needle very much. That's it.

They've had to remake this entire team either through free agency or in the top of the draft and you can see how much they've had to scramble. So that's a team that I was surprised they weren't higher just because of how bleak their roster has looked in recent years. But then being six, you can see the tangible effects that those missteps had had for that. Someone's going to get mad at you for not saying Joe Mixon. So just say. I forgot, but he didn't play last year.

That's why he's just not on my mind. Joe Mixon's a nice play. Yeah. But, I mean, just outside of that, William Jackson's off this roster. You have Tyler Boyd, you know, Carl Lawson's not on this team anymore. Mixing, but then John Ross is like exactly what we're talking about. Top 10 pick that you got nothing from. That's how this thing tends to happen.

And then missing on Billy Price in the first round, it's, you just see it. I mean, you just see how it influences his team. Drew Sample was a second round pick for them. he hasn't done much at all. They just have not gotten very much from the players they've drafted, and you can see the effects of it. Yeah, and for so much of their run

where they were, you know, a playoff team, pretty much everything from that team was drafted and developed players under Marvin Lewis. I mean, go back to the 106. They were one of the best drafting teams in the league. Right. 06 you had, they started Jonathan Joseph, Andrew Whitworth,

Frosty Rucker, DeMata Pecco. And like, not all those guys turned up to be stars, but like Whitworth is a Hall of Fame caliber tackle. Joseph was a good cornerback for a decade. Rucker, Peco, both starters. 2017, they get Leon Hall in the first round. 2018, not as much, but Pat Sims, Mo Collins, Andre Caldwell, in the middle of the draft. 2009, you get Andre Smith, who was very good for a period of time.

Ray Malauuluca, Michael Johnson, later in the draft guys like Kevin Yuber, Clinton McDonald, who was good elsewhere. I mean, those guys, you know, in the 2010, Carlos done up in the second round, Gino Atkins in the fourth round. I mean, those guys... And Otis Hudson in the fifth round, my high school teammate. I did not know that. Yeah. Have you seen Otis Hudson's pro football reference photo? No, I have not.

He has the Chief's turtleneck, and I feel like everyone looks worse. He looks like he's a little surprised that someone took his photo. I'm just going to say. Oh, gosh. Oh, Otis. Good times. Otis came to Barrington for his final two years. He was an incredible athlete.

Like, I have never seen him. Otis listed at 65320 on this page. He was probably about 6.5-300. high school. And watching him move around, it was incredibly. He played basketball. The guy had the softest feet. I mean, he was a really special athlete. I mean, he played in the NFL. It was a fifth round pick. Obviously, he was a very good high school athlete, but he was really, really incredible to watch when we were younger. Yeah, I mean, he started next to me along the offensive line. He was much, much bigger than me. I can tell you that. Yeah, as it turns out, being six, five, three

pounds and a good athlete is good for your pro football chances. Yeah, it was, Everyone else on that line was at least 280. And then I played that year at 235 on my 511 frame. It was way too much. All right. We're going to count these down. Number five, Indianapolis Colts. Not surprising.

You look at a couple of the drafts they've had. Five all pros in this stretch, seven Pro Bowls. And it really starts from the year before Chris Bowler got there. 2016, they got Ryan Kelly. Joe Haig was a sneaky value. Maybe he got a couple of years as a starter for them in the fifth round. The Austin Blythe was in the seventh round. Almost all of his production came with another team,

but we're not differentiating here. 2017 was Bauer's first draft. Not a lot from a league hooker and Quincy Wilson, but they got a ton out of guys later in the draft. Anthony Walker was a fifth round pick, Grover Stewart and Marlon Mack in the fourth. And that's what we've seen from the Colts. Even when the guys at the top haven't worked out,

they've always had a couple guys in each draft. And I think that's really important. 2018, though, that's where this is made. I mean, it's one of, if not the best class for any team over this entire stretch. Quentin Nelson, Darius Leonard, Braden Smith, all in one single draft. I mean, I don't know if you ran the numbers this specifically, but was that the best class that anybody has had? I would imagine the Saints draft was better.

Ah, we will get to that one. But pretty freaking good to start with, you know, all pro, probably on a Hall of Fame track. All pro. So, Derek Slyder, maybe not a Hall of Fame track, but a superstar player. If he stays healthy, I think that it could happen. For sure, but it's a tough position to make it from the Hall of Fame, even relative to Guard. But Quentin Nelson is just a absolute, like, I don't know what the rate of Hall of Fame is for guys who make three first team all pros in their first three years, but it's like, it's greater than 50%. He's been the Joe Thomas of Guards.

I mean, that's how you frame it. Those are Hall of Fame players. Have we, as a brief aside, had the Quentin Nelson conversation for? for 2021? About him moving to left tackle? Yes. It's not happening. It's not happening.

No. Would you want it to happen? Absolutely not. Absolutely. Not even think about it. Absolutely not. Wow. I'd rather they move Braden Smith the left tackle than move Quentin Nelson over there.

Okay. Not saying you're wrong. I think that you should let a Hall of Fame guard play guard. But you really need a left tackle, though. And I know this is dangerous, and it goes against a lot of things I say. There are many people. people have said that there might be a starting tackle available in the first two rounds. And I think their ability to develop offensive linemen and the hits they've had and how well

they've drafted at those spots, even though I think they would even tell you that Brayden Smith is more of an accident than a plan. Sure. I still think that they could do it. They could find one in the first two rounds and be able to plug a guy in there, especially playing next to Gwen Nelson. I think that there's a chance that he, you know, that helps development, everything else. I have faith in their ability to find a guy in this draft.

I wrote about this. I will say Russell Okun is still a free agent. And that could lead to a very satisfying scenario, which is Russell Okun explaining Bitcoin to Jim Ursay. I will say, though, Russell Okun is the exact sort of move this team would make. That is that that is the type of free agent addition they would make when all other things are off the table. They firmly believe that teams are not made in March. And that's not, I'm not saying that they're against spending money in free agency, which they are. But I think they are very into the idea of we can sign somebody in August if we need to and we can figure out our roster over the first quarter of the season. Whatever the opposite of how the Bears handle this stuff is, that's how the Colts handle it.

The Bears think that you need every single guy you're possibly going to have on March 15th. That's not how the Colts approach this. Absolutely. And I think that's a totally fine way to approach it. And I think when you look at what they've done, to me, it's less about the players and more about the philosophy under Ballard. And it's real simple to see. 2017, three fourth round picks, two fifth round picks. 2018, they traded down as part of the Sam Darnel trade, four second round picks to work with. 2019, they trade down three second round picks, 20, two second round picks, four, sixth round picks.

And they are a team that abide by what analytics would say, even if, you know, Chris Ballard's not someone who, you know, is a a math genius. He's a traditional scout, but I mean, they do smart things. They are saying, okay, we can't beat the draft. The way we're going to get our value is getting as many shots as possible. And when you have four second round picks,

you can take a shot. You know, you're not going to hit on every single player you hit. They've had second rounders, like Kamoko Turai or Taekwon Lewis, that haven't worked out. And you barely notice. It's just one of those things where you can get away from it. And that has showed up.

I think their lack of ability to fight. and edge rusher has created a glaring hole going into this season. But for the most part, they've been able to sustain misses because of the way that they've accumulated draft capital. Right. And I think that is something you can take away, even if you're not going to be a Master Scout, even if you know you're going to miss on picks. And I think that's something we're going to see pop up a couple more times as we talk about

the top five teams here. Yeah. I think as an organization, they're pretty obsessed with extracting as much value from the draft as possible. And that even extends to something like the DeForest Buckner trade. I mean, the idea that they could get Buckham for half of what defensive stars are going for on the trade market, that is an unequivocal win for them. And I think they love moves like that because it's obvious the value there. You don't even have to read much into it.

It's half of what other teams have paid. And they are dedicated to doing stuff like that and trying to find those at all costs. And I know that may sound simple, but there are teams that aren't. There are teams that aren't trying to find value wherever they can, and those teams tend to stroke. All right. Speaking of that, let's get to the team that's number four on this list. This is going to be a conversation. The Chicago Bears are number four on this list.

The Chicago Bears have weaponized their draft capital better than all but three teams in the NFL from 2016 to 2020. Okay. Two all pros, which is a little bit misleading. It's Tariq Cohen is an all-pros. as a returner, and six Pro Bowls, one of which is Mitchell Trubisky. Do you remember the photo as well as I do? They only had 33 picks. Only the Falcons and the Saints had fewer, but they've done a decent job with them.

Were you surprised to see the Bears among this group of five teams? Okay, yes. I was surprised to see the Bears among this list of five teams. And I think part of it is that we're accounting for the missing capital. They don't have, they're not being credited with draft value. for not having a first and second round pick in 2019, which is the product of the Kaleel Mack trade. They don't have a first rounder in 2020.

That's all fine. They also traded a second rounder to go trade for Anthony Miller, who they're about to ship off for nothing. They traded another third round pick to go up and get David Montgomery. There's a lot of stuff here. They traded up for Leonard Floyd. That is a bad process. But when they've stayed put or when they've just drafted players,

they've done fine. And I know, like, like, like, Like, we can talk about Mitch. Let's leave Mitch aside for now. Mitch is, well, I'll say this much. Mitch is not Josh Rosen, right? Like, that's the biggest, that's the most important thing. It's like he was a starter for four years who was a playable NFL quarterback.

He was good for, like, 2018, he was fine. Like, he was, he had, he has a lot of an approximate value for that year. That is a outlier year for him. But, I mean, go back to what they did elsewhere. 2016 Leonard Floyd was not a superstar, but a solid piece of the defense. I think it gets more credit by approximate value because he was part of a very good defense when approximate value doesn't necessarily know that he was not necessarily the straw stirring the drink there, to be fair. But Cody Whitehares has been an okay guard.

Nick Whitekowski in the fourth round in 2016. Jordan Howard as a starting running back in the fifth round, who was, you know, pretty good for a couple of years. He had a couple really good years. 2017 Eddie Jackson on the fourth round is a star safety. Tariq Cohen, even if he's not a, you know, even if the All-Pro doesn't mean all that much, has been a solid piece and a solid return guy. Adam Shaheen, not so much. And that's sort of why the bears aren't higher.

2018, Roquant Smith was excellent last year. A real difference maker last year, I thought at linebacker. The rest of the draft, not quite as impressive, but all Nichols gets some credit for being part of the defense. He's a nice player in the fifth round. There's a decent amount of those guys on this list. Right. There are guys who sprinkle through here, like Darno Mooney being a fifth-term pick in 2020, guys who, you know, aren't necessarily SARS, but they're pieces. And I think when you talked about the teams who are on the other end of the spectrum here,

like your jets and giants, they're not finding those guys typically in the fourth or fifth round. The bears have. And I think that, you know, this sort of model doesn't know all that much about the bigger moves they've made and the decisions they've made that I would take major issue with. But just left to his devices about, okay, this is the pick. have this is the the player i'm going to choose after the first round i think generally or sorry outside of the trabisky pick generally ryan pace has done a decent job there yeah that's absolutely true and i think the problem here is process and it's the the types of processes they've followed and the picks

they've traded away and also i think the leon floyd thing is a perfect example right learn floyd's a useful player he's he was decent for them they decline his they they cut him before his fifth year option Instead of letting Leonard Floyd play that out, they go and they sign a lesser player and an older player in Robert Quinn and get far less production, especially compared to what Leonard Floyd did with the Rams last year. And now they have an expensive aging player on the roster that's not producing as much as Leonard Floyd. Eddie Jackson, I think, is really useful example. Eddie Jackson looked like he was going to be a super duper star in 2018 under Vic Fangio. He has not been the same player over the last couple years. Sure.

Because I don't think the scheme aligns with what he does well. We'll see what happens with Sean to sign out running that defense. But Eddie Jackson has paid like a top five safety and he doesn't play like it anymore. And then obviously the Trubisky pick. So if you're trying to reconcile how the Bears are fourth on this list and they're not one of the best teams in the NFL, there are pathways to get there. There are reasons why that has worked out. Sure. But I think if we were talking about the five best run organizations and football over the

last five years, the bears would not be in the top five. No, they'd probably be in the bottom five. I don't know about that. That's the frustrating part about this, is that this team could have been close. The way they've drafted, they absolutely could have been close. But it's those little tiny mistakes and in some cases really big mistakes that hold you back, even if you do a good job of drafting. Speaking of that, number three on this list is the Dallas Cowboys.

Yes. And I am not surprised at all to see them here because we've had this conversation so many times in the last couple years. The Cowboys are so talented. The Cowboys are so talented. And every once in a while, I'm like, is that really true? And then you look at the returns they've had in the draft over the last five years and you realize, yeah, it is really true. The Cowboys have had a lot of talent come through that building. And that's not even taking into account some of the players that were drafted just before this. You know, you're Zach Martins and your Travis Fredericks and you're, you're,

what they did with Lyle Collins. And I mean, this is a team that has accumulated so many good players. And I just, all this says to me is that they really screwed this up. Yeah. The fact that they did not do a better job over the last, obviously 2020 is what it is. But the fact that they did not do a better job in 2018, 2019. And this was not a contending team with the amount of returns they've had in the draft is just really hard to deal with.

Dude, they landed a borderline Hall of Fame quarterback as an undraft. drafted free agent. And then over the last decade, then after, after he got hurt, they landed a top eight quarterback in the fourth round. The most valuable pick over this entire exercise. Right. And over the last decade, guys they have drafted who are 50 or, yeah, let's say 35 plus A.V. You can hear me trying to finagle the number slightly. But guys who were impact players over the last decade, Des Bryant-Shonlea, 2010. Tyron Smith, DeMarco Murray, 2011. Tyrone Crawford, 2012.

Travis Frederick, 2013. Zach Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Anthony Hitchens, 2014. Byron Jones, 2015. 2016, the draft that really propelled them here. Zeke, Jalen Smith, Bleak Collins, Dac Prescott in 2016. The problem for them, and I think that's going to really hurt them in years to come. 2017, 2018, 2019? not looking all that hot.

2017, Taco Charlton, Chaudioubio-Wusier, their first two picks, not all that great. A little better 2018 with Leiden Van der Esch and Michael Gallup in the first three rounds. Vinder Esh didn't really play all that great last year. You're hoping he gets better in 2021. Struggling to stay healthy. I mean, that's been one of the biggest issues with him,

but that matters when we're looking at this. Part of it, I mean, I don't know. The other thing is that, like, that Cowboys defense last year, I mean, I don't watch high school football. I watch very little college football on tape. I'm mostly watching pro football. And like guys screw up, but I have not seen a defense just like totally get confused about how to fit the run than I saw at the Cowboys last year.

Like so many big plays where there was just a guy who like, you know, just nobody in a gap where the play was running to. And that shouldn't happen like 15 times over the course of the year. And I could probably show you 15 plays where that happened with the death. Dallas Cowboys. And that is, I'm hoping that things get better with Dan Quinn as the defensive coordinator, hoping that it was just like a poorly coached team. And I think their 2020 draft is going to have to be pretty good with C. Lee Lamb and Trevon Diggs.

But this is just a team that, you know, they draft so well. And it's been good with Bill Parcells. It's been good with Jimmy Johnson. It's been good over the last 15 years of Jerry Jones. Like, they are a team that routinely has made smart choices in the draft. but whether it's been injuries, whether it's been inconsistency, whether it's been bad luck, have not been able to take that next step. I mean, do you have any, and this is the problem.

If you look at it, I think a lot of this is attributable to Jason Garrett and the coaching staff during his tenure. And now we're looking at this team coming into the 2021 season. And I would say, again, they look pretty talented. I mean, obviously there are health concerns along the offensive line. Tyrone Smith is aging. I think signing Tynaseki and having him as a swing tackle that they didn't have last year is a really smart idea just to protect themselves from what happened last season.

But for the most part, I think it's a very talented roster. Are we hopeful that this coaching staff can get the most out of this roster? I would say no for like the 10th straight year. And that continues to be the problem with this team is even if they've accumulated talent, they've consistently shown that the coaches on that staff are not equipped to point that talent in the red direction. I think I picked the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl last year. I picked them to be the number one seat in the NFC. I'm just going to sit this one out for the podcast about what expectations for the Cowboys should be in 2021.

I mean, it is, of all the teams on this list, even more than the teams who've been bad at drafting, it would be most frustrating to be a Cowboys fan because of how well they've drafted and because of how many good players have walked through that building and they have nothing to show for it. It's not as if it's not a Super Bowl. they don't have playoff wins to show for it and that is just really hard to deal with I know there's not a way to do this

but imagine if you could somehow explain to someone you could show that the person who knows nothing about football the Cowboys roster over the past 20 years and the Giants roster over the past 20 years and explain that the Giants have won two Super Bowls and the Cowboys have not come close to winning a Super Bowl

you had to get that in there I shouldn't be surprised it's so stupid it. All right. Number two. Number two. Kansas City Chiefs. 12 Pro Bowls, four all pros. Obviously, Mahomes is a huge part of this. He has 54 A-B and only three seasons, which is just stupid. I mean, he's the best player to come from this, even if he hasn't accumulated the most value, right? So, Dak missed a chunk of last year. He was drafted in 2016. He's only at 61. And Mahomes is at 54. But when you consider Dax's draft spot, that's why he is the most valuable pick of all of these.

But it's not just Mahal's. Chris Jones is at 40. Tyree Kill is a fifth round pick, which that's an entirely different conversation. But for where he was drafted and what he's done, they've gotten a ton of value from Tyree Kill. 2018 and 2019, a bit a little underwhelming. But when you have the amount of talent that they accumulated early in this stretch, it's definitely enough to put them in this group. Yeah. I mean, landing the best player in football at the 10th over.

overall pick is good. Like you are going to win a lot if you do that. Getting Terry Kill, who has 57AV as a fifth round pick, even if the way that they ended up getting him is pretty gross, like we're not evaluating for that in this analysis. And he has been a phenomenal football player between the lines over the past five years. I mean, Chris Jones, again, that that is a guy who was not a first round pick. He was 37 in that year's draft. And one of the best, he's one of the best 10 defensive players in the league, right? Pretty comfortably, you would say. Sure. And I mean, like, he went eight picks after, and Kim Dice went to the Cardinals. He went after Vernon Butler went to the Panthers. He went after guys like Emmanuel Agba and Kevin Dodd came off the board.

I mean, you know, it wasn't like he was a top 10 pick and he is a player who has exceeded expectations. Travis Kelsey even go back before this span. I mean, Travis Kelsey was a third round pick coming out of Cincinnati in 2013 and a guy who was out for his entire rookie season, right? Did he play at all his first year? he had one game. He had one game. He played, I think, like a handful of snaps his first game. Basically, like a guy who was, you know, had maturity issues at school, missed his entire year and then has been a superstar in the third round.

And I think that the, you know, this is a organization that under Andy Reid has not just hit on my home, but hit on like six or seven guys who are superstars. Then unlike the Cowboys, have maximized those guys and had those guys playing at a high level for pretty much week in, week out. over the past two or three years. But if you look at what's happened over the last couple of years, I think that's, it's one of the interesting parts of this exercise. So 2017, obviously Mahomes is Mahomes.

2018, Breeland Speaks is on his way to being one of the worst, first or second round picks of this entire group that we've talked about. Have you, can you even remember seeing Breeland Speaks on a football field? No, I can't. And I think that's exactly what we're talking about. Derek Nottie was a third round pick. He's been good for them. He's a decent run stuffer.

But there's a chance that's all they have to show for that entire draft class. Part of the reason is because they trade that first shot pick from the homes, which you would do 100 times out of 100. Yes. But in the next two draft classes, you trade for Frank Clark so you don't have a first job pick in 2019. Your first pick in that draft is McColl Hardman, who I think is a luxury, no matter which way you slice it.

They have not gotten a ton out of recent drafts. And I think that the connective tissue of that roster has not been very good over the last couple of years. I mean, you saw that show up later in the season. Obviously, they were devastated with injuries, but that's how fast this changes. Is that just because you are the guy that drafted Patrick Mahomes doesn't mean you're going to consistently be able to find talent year after year. Yeah.

And I mean, they're going to drop out as we get further away. I think 2016 was a very good draft for them. You know, if we did this a year from now, I think they would be out of the top five. And I think we would see the Ravens and the Bills were just out of the top five here. I think they're six and eight respectively. I think they'd be making a push because their drafts happened better more recently than the Chiefs and I would say the Cowboys as well. So I want to talk about the Ravens and the Bills after we get to number one here. Number one shouldn't surprise anyone in the New Orleans Saints.

I would say I'm not shocked they're in the top five. But like it's not as if when I did this, I thought they were a guarantee to be the first overall, the top team. I guess that's fair. I guess that's fair. I would have bet on them more than any of the other teams just because I've thought a lot about and talked a lot about just how well they've added talent. I mean, they have not had many missteps in adding players, period, over the last several years. I think that the Marcus Davenport trade we can talk about, but even the free agent bets they've made for the most part, guys like

DeMario Davis, when they signed him, that's one of the best free agent contracts handed out over the last several years. They were on a red hot streak in terms of the bets that they were making, again, outside of the Davenport deal, but we can talk about that. But if you look at the 2017 class that they had, yeah, it's absolutely the best class of any of the ones in this. And the year before, they added Michael Thomas Von Bell and David Anumata. Like, it's not as if it was just one class and they have the best draft. I mean, Ryan Ramshrek and Alvin Camara have 52 AVs since 2017.

That's two less than Patrick Mahomes. and they had two of those guys in the same draft. And in that draft, they also had Marsha Lattimore in the first round, Marcus Williams in the second round, Trey Hendrickson in the third round. Marcus Williams was worthy of being franchised this year. Marcus Lattimore is going to get a massive contract extension. Trey Hendrickson was a third round pick that got a $15 million a year deal

from the Bengals and Free Agency. That's an all-time draft. It is. I mean, I did a poll earlier this off-season where I, I asked people to pick between this Saints draft and the Seahawks draft that had Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner, which is, I mean, that's two, you know, first ballot, walk-in Hall of Famers. And people chose the Seahawks. People chose the Seahawks.

But it's not like, I don't think it's that outlandish of a conversation because you have, you're adding a top three right tackle. Is that fair to say in Bramcheck? A top five corner to me in Marshawn Latimore, a ex-exam. excellent safety of Marcus Williams, a top five running back in Alvin Kamara. And then Hendrickson, who was a guy who was, the numbers inflated his performance. He was not a top five pass rusher this year, but a guy who was a useful rotation piece who then became, you know, who had a huge year in terms of the numbers for the Saints on the edge this year. I mean, it's just you would be happy with one or two of those guys.

And they had, you know, five. And one of the reasons why Mays, they had those six pick, those five guys with Alex Anzile. Hohny being the sixth starter, those six guys turning into value players is that they had a ton of picks. They had two first rounders. They had a high second round pick and they had three third round selections. Getting those extra picks is going to give you a better shot at succeeding. And when, you know, it's kind of out of character for them too.

It is. But like, remember that year, we were covering them and we literally were doing a podcast when the Jimmy Graham trade broke, if I'm not mistaken. I mean, this is a team that had to make some moves because they, they, you know, were not on a good track. They were in a very messy cap situation. They had made some mistakes. They were a mess on defense.

Like they had to take a swing at getting some cheap talent. And they, I mean, could never have imagined. They would succeed this much. But, I mean, they were, I think they were a team that, if I'm not mistaken, they were interested in ending Patrick Mahomes that year. Yeah. I mean, they've said that. I think a lot of teams have said that in the aftermath of what Patrick Mahomes has become.

Right. But I think they were maybe a little more viably interested in Mahomes. They supposedly would have drafted him with the 11th pick if you were there. Now, Marsha Lattimore is incredible. It's a great cornerback. It's not quite a match for Mahomes. They could have had Mahomes, Ramchick, Kamara, Marcus Williams. That actually might have been the best draft in NFL history, at least through the first three or four years.

I mean, they did an incredible job. But you move forward since then, even though they've been. were incredible in 2017 and had a great draft to your point, like you said, in 2016. Has not looked all that good over the last few years. Like, I like Eric McCoy. I like Chonsea Gardner Johnson is like he's the most irritating player in the league, which is a skill, a good slot corner. But like, this is a team where they have not gotten a lot of Marcus Davenport,

a guy that traded two first-arm picks to grab. Trade question, so it's been an okay receiver. Rick Leonard, fourth-arm pick, is not played. you know, like, Cesar Ruiz was fine as a rookie. But Zach Bonn is a sort of a low reward player. Obviously, only his first year, Adam Tritman, we still have to see what he's going to become. But like, this is a team that for one year had all the stars aligned,

got a ton of draft capital, took a bunch of swings, needed to hit and hit beyond anybody's expectations. And when you do that, it's going to propel you forward for years to come. Why didn't they have a second round pick in 2018? They just trade out of the second round then? I will tell you in two seconds why they did not have a second round pick in 2018. I don't think it wasn't the Cook's trade. They did not have a second round pick in 2018 because they traded up for Alvin Kamara.

They traded their second round pick for a third and a seventh rounder. That is a trade that I hate trading a future second round pick for a third round pick and drafting a running back. That's pretty much everything you could do to irritate me in one trade. Except get Alvin Camara. But it works. Like, you got to give them credit. Like, sometimes you can do the wrong thing, and it might work.

Sometimes you stay on 11 and the dealer bus. It happens. I think the Jets actually were rumored to be interested in trading up for Alvin Kamara. And I just think I'm happy for Alvin Kamara's sake that did not happen for him. Do you think that this is just an organizational mindset or do you think this was product of trying to maximize Drew Breeze's last couple years. Do you think they'll be less aggressive in this next stage of who the Saints are going to be? I think it depends on what they're being aggressive for, right? Like, I think you have to change your mindset because I think in this

three or four year run, they had to be aggressive to try and get around Breeze. But now there's major question marks about a quarterback. So I think you can't go and be aggressive about adding another antrusher because you're kind of locked in with what you have. Like Davenport has to be a star, them to get a return out of that trade. But I think if there was a quarterback they loved over the next year or two, like, I think they could very easily justify to say, okay, let's go out and make that Niners trade and give up three first-round picks to get a quarter-up because we think we have enough talent around whoever that quarterback's going to be, and we trust our coaching staff enough that we can win a Super Bowl with the right guy on a rookie deal.

And so much of why that's the case is because they nailed that draft in 2017. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think for a quarterback, that aggression would be justified. I'm not sure how much, I mean, they shouldn't have done them in the moment. But I'm certainly not sure how reasonable it would be to be trading future first round picks for positional players here over the next couple of years when they're trying to figure out what they want to be. The big question you have to ask yourself here, I think if you're trying to figure out who does this well, who doesn't do this well, is does the fact that the Saints were incredible in 2017, make you think that their actual level of ability is impressive? The fact that they've been kind of meh from 2018 to 2020 sort of make you think that 2017 is a fluke. I think it's a fluke.

I think all of these are flukes. I think there's some teams that have done a better job. But I think a class like that is a fluke. I don't think a class like that says anything about a team's ability to consistently do that. Yeah. Or even do it again. Yeah, I mean, but that's sort of the scary thing, right? It's like we have so much of our football experience is invested in the idea that these people are very good at this job and that they are the billion, the millions of dollars every year that are invested in the draft complex should deliver more than just, eh, it was a fluke.

But that might be the best we can do. I think the Saints have done a decent job at identifying talent. I think that thinking you can trade up for guys consistently and that's going to keep working out for you is a fool's errand. I think you're going to run into a lot of problems if you have that mindset. I think that teams that keep their picks, and we'll get into this in a second, teams that keep their picks and teams that continuously acquire more picks and all of that, I think they do better in the draft. They get more value on the draft. Two teams just outside of the top five in this, but that are inside the top five. the top 10 and also inside the top 10 over the last decade, three teams actually are Pittsburgh,

Baltimore, and Green Bay. They, over the last 10 years, have consistently extracted more value from the draft than other teams in the NFL. Do you think there is something to the way they approach this that has allowed them to have that sustained success? I think they buy in bulk. I think that those are teams that typically play the comp game, typically draft and develop, and typically have more selections. And even though we're accounting for the draft capital they have, even though they're looking at third, fourth, fifth round picks coming back to them as compensatory selections, like, you don't have to hit on too many of those

to start looking good on a per pick basis. Like even if the expectation for a third or fourth round compick is not very high, like you have to hit on one player in that range. Like hit on one Ricky. You need a one Judon to make this work for you. You need one June on, one Ryan Jensen, one Ricky Wagner. one, you know, one's a Darius Smith. Like if you find that guy, even if he's only that guy for a year or two, because you have to

develop him, like, you're still getting so much out of that process for basically nothing, for like letting a player leave, which other teams are going to do anyway because they're going to cut guys. Like, that formula still works. I think you have to supplement it here and there. Like I think the Packers, even though I was critical of their spending spring in 2019, I think it really did push that team forward. I think for the Ravens, like they have to be selective about going out and any guy like General Thomas or even this year of Sammy Watkins in free agency to help out their roster.

But I think on the whole, like that formula is still unbeated, man. Get the extra picks. Take your shots. And like you have to hit, if you can hit at that same base rate by getting more shots, you're going to have a more impressive roster over the course of a decade. Do you think there's something to the continuity that's been at those places? the idea that they've had the same set of guiding principles for multiple decades in some cases. I know that Eric Takasta is the new GM in name

and that Brian Guzbo's hasn't been there forever, but those are guys who are lifers in those organizations. I think that they've had a consistent set of what they're looking for, how they communicate, how they want their scouts to work, everything else. Do you think there's anything to that? I mean, there has to be, right? Like, you know, it's worked for a reason. Like, every team's going to screw up.

you know like Kyle bowler was still a guy that that Ossie Ducson traded up for Of course Every team is going to make mistakes you have you can avoid that The Patriots have been much worse drafting over the last five years than they were over the prior 15 Especially at the top of drafts that's going to happen It's going to happen but like in the long run like knowing what kind of player you want Knowing what your guidelines are for what to look for knowing that you're not that one player away or that one great draft away, because even if you might end up being that one draft away,

you can't predict that's going to happen. Like, I think being comfortable at that and not being desperate year after year, like being desperate for one spot or one player is one thing, but being desperate year after year is such a dangerous formula. They've never, the Ravens have never had to be the Jets where they've had to fill eight holes on their roster in one off season. They can play a long game every single year because they know they're sticking around. There's value in that.

That gives you in advance. You can play the long game and then, hey, maybe one year you happen to have the league MVP fall to the bottom of the first round and you can draft him for a fraction of what it would have taken to move up and get a guy on the top five. Like that, like if you have that happy accident happened once every five or six years and then you supplemented with the smart stuff year after year and the consistency year after year, that's how you're going to win in the big picture. It's about every team needs luck in this. Of course. Every team needs a few breaks. but setting yourself up to maximize those breaks, I think that is the most important aspect of this.

Are you ready to take advantage of it? Because we've seen, my main takeaway from this list of the top five is that a single class can reshape your entire future. Yeah. 2016 and obviously Mahomes, but even that 2016 class for the chiefs is a huge part of that. The 2018 class for the Colts, the 2017 class for the Saints,

the 2016 class for the Cowboys. Some of those teams have been ready to take advantage of it. and teams like the Cowboys haven't been. You have to strike when you get one of these classes. And I think that brings me to one of the other teams you talked about. I think the bills are right there because I think their 2017-2018 stretch is similar to what we saw from the 2016-2017 Chiefs, from the 2017-2016 Saints. I think they're right there.

And then Diggs is that last blue-chip guy that you need. But look at that 2017 class for the Bishops for the Bills. bills. You have Tradavius White, DeAnd Dawkins in the second round, Matt Milano in the fifth round. That's the exact makeup of these classes that we're talking about. And now we're a year away from now and possibly getting that extension. Can they bring this thing home while that window to really maximize it is still open? Because that's what we've seen. If you can do it, you win a Super Bowl. If not, you're paying your quarterback $40 million and some of these other guys are also on extensions and that opportunity that you had has disappeared much faster than you thought it might.

And you can't count and having it twice. Like the Seahawks can't, you know, they can't go back and watch 2011 film and say, okay, we're going to draft two Hall of Famers in the second and third round. Like it just does not work that way. Yeah. I mean, it's amazing. And I think that's the, that's the formula. Do you consistently make smart bets?

Do you consistently understand that you don't know better? Do you consistently try to swing at high upside players early in the draft when you need to find superstars? And even if you get starters, it's probably not going to take you anywhere. All of that combined with setting yourself up to be ready for that one or two breaks that you absolutely need to do this. Do the Patriot, do the Bucks win without signing Tom Brady? Absolutely not.

But they were ready. They had built a roster that was attractive to Tom Brady. They had built the connective tissue of everything over the. the last couple drafts, and they needed one or two things to bring it all home. They needed Tom Brady and Tristan Worf's, and now they're the world champions. It's just so funny how that works. It's just about doing it consistently over a couple years, one hot stretch, and you're right there in the conversation. So we are qualified to run a football team now, right? Absolutely. I'm sure we would do an excellent job. We'd be terrible at it. We'd be so, so bad at it. Because you have to

remove emotion from the process and I'm just a painfully emotional person. I would never be able to remove how I felt about certain players and everything else from this. I know I wouldn't be good. Yeah, trading up to the first overall pick to get Cal Pitts. Yeah, exactly. I'm doing it instantly. All right, buddy. I really appreciate this is very fun. I really appreciate you putting that list together. It is something that I literally could not do. You creating that formula and putting all that together. Always good to chat with you. I really appreciate you taking the time. Thanks so much, my friend.

This was The Athletic Football Show.