The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Expectations for Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, and other quarterbacks in new places; Checking in on the Colts with Zak Keefer

Episode Date: August 19, 2022

How is Russell Wilson going to change Denver's offense? How does Matt Ryan change the equation for Frank Reich and the Colts. Robert Mays and Nate Tice break down all the quarterback movement on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. Then, Robert checks in from Colts camp with Zak Keefer. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. It's the Athletic Football Show. Today's Friday, August 19th. I'm Robert Mays. Great show for you guys today. One of our Colts writers at the Athletic, Zach Kiefer. He was going to be joining us a little bit later. Zach and I chatted yesterday as I was dripping sweat outside the Colts facility in

Westfield, Indiana, where they have training camp, just soaking, talking to Matt Ryan. It was a really good look for me. Really enjoy that conversation with Zach. excited for you guys to hear it. Colts fascinate me. I think we all know that by now. So really liked visiting with them and visiting with Zach. Before we get to Zach, though, I am very excited to welcome my good buddy, Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, bud? I'm doing well. I just realized that you wanted to tape this as the Bears are playing. That was not on purpose. I put two and two together as I right before we started, I was like, who is playing tonight? Thursday night, you never know.

I saw there's the Bears. Thursday night only 5 o'clock West Coast time. But no, that is a, I had a little chuckle to that about a half hour ago before we started this. I'm doing great. I have it on in my hotel room in Indianapolis. So if anything ridiculous happens, we'll be able to comment on it. I did not do that on purpose, though. This is the only time that I could record this.

It's my last day on the road before I go home. So I'm going to go home tomorrow and then I'll be in Greed Bay later this weekend early next week. And then I will visit with my Chicago Bears sometime next week. and that'll be it. So full disclosure about the way that we've done these shows over the last few weeks. A lot of the shows that we've done, if you've noticed a certain flavor to them, it's a lot of kind of narratives about players and big picture stuff, not a lot of deep dives on anything because I wanted to wait until the end of my training

camp trip to have some of these conversations because that's what I spent the last three weeks doing, was talking to people about these subjects that we really wanted to dig into. And last year, you and I did a show that I really liked doing. I thought it was a really cool reset to do at this point in the calendar. And it was about the quarterbacks who are in new settings. And we're going to do that show again. I was in Denver, talked to Nate Hackett and Justin out in their offensive coordinator. I was in Washington this week.

I had a conversation with Matt Ryan today. So we wanted after I had all those chats to kind of throw it back into the show and really dig into what it might look like for all of these guys. And I want to start with Russell Wilson because I personally think it's one of the most fascinating stories in the entire NFL is the Broncos committing to him but also what is this thing going to look like? What does the marriage between Russell Wilson and what he likes to do? How does that blend with what Nate Hackett and that offensive system that they ran in Green Bay

over the last few years? What does that baby look like? And I have absolutely no idea. I think they're going to enjoy the thing. air in Denver. Oh, all right. Okay. I'm into that as an approach.

You like that? You like that? Yeah. I think, yeah, just moonballs. I think that is what we had kind of like an epiphany once I'm talking about the Packers two years ago, the first year of the show. And we're like, oh, it's threes and layups. It's threes and layups.

It's threes and layups. And what were those threes? Those are the kind of targeted aggression that Eric Rogers would have. And I did an article a little bit a few months ago about one question for all these guys, Like, or one scheme thing and really, I cheated a lot as I was doing it. I was kind of like, yeah, that's a question. Sure. Yeah, that's a subject header.

I'll put it in bold. No, no, no, no, no, no, I'll learn how to cheat as a writer. It's not, it's really just about cutting corners as often as you can with the presentation. My breakout, breakout player articles, like, okay, second and third year players that aren't pro bowlers. The second guy I listed was Eric McCoy, who's going into his fourth year. And the third guy I listed was, uh, got Roshan Gary, who's also, believe, going into his fourth year. So I was like two out of three where I was already off the list. And Aaron Reese, my editor was like, yeah, hey, those guys don't meet your qualifications.

But I love the segment you had on them. But yeah, love the energy. Love the energy. Loving writing. But no, but watching when you watch Russell Wilson and Aaron Rogers, the thing that they have in common is launching deep balls and being really good at them. When I did this article, I looked at Russ's numbers. And since 2019, he has the second highest percentage of throws over 20 or plus air yards. So deep balls, true deep balls.

That's what he's best at. He's that aggression. And his short game, like his chipping and putting would be his scrambling. It wouldn't be throwing quick game. He was better throwing down the field and outside. That is kind of where his height limitations come in. And I've repeated this like 40 times, but that's kind of where it goes. And so I think that's what you have to lean into.

Let's enjoy that Denver Air. Let's launch at these guys. You got a couple of receivers. They're still healthy, not Tim Patrick, but Cortland Sutton, who's great down the field, KJ Handler as well, who have been targeted before on these types of throws. So there's some synergy that I could see overlapping there, even if maybe the short game's a little different. Peter King wrote this last week in his column on Monday, and I had a similar conversation when Nate Hackett when I was there.

Peter King said that these guys are partners in the way that it's being shaped. That's how they're talking about it. Nate Hackett said to me, it's a direct quote, in the end, it's about him. I can't do it if he doesn't like it. And that's all you need to know about the ownership that Russell Wilson is going to have of this offense, especially in year one, especially as they go into the, first season together, I think that he's going to be able to put his imprint on this thing. And they've had a pretty open dialogue the entire time.

But if he says no, he says no. It's essentially how Hackett phrased it to me. And Justin out in the offensive coordinator pretty much said the same thing. You know, he's going to come in. He's going to have a ton of ownership of what we do. And he's going to help shape this thing. We're going to come to a marriage of those two different sets of ideas. But Russ is going to have a lot of say in how this goes.

And I think the deep ball is going to be a huge part of the. that I'm wondering what the deep ball looks like though. And one area, just kind of digging into some of the numbers, they think Russ is going to kind of shape a lot of their empty game. The way that out and said it to me, it said it's a deluxe empty package that he brought with him from Seattle. It's much more varied and the breadth of it is wider than what we might have had in Green Bay, which I thought was interesting.

If you look at Russ's empty numbers last year with the Seahawks, they were terrible. He was 29th of 33 quarterbacks in EPA per play, EPA per dropback out of empty. Rogers was third. Okay, so there's a pretty big gap there. Yeah. One of the distinctive parts of Russ's approach out of empty last season, and he's just airmail and shit. 25.4%.

So a quarter of Russ's empty throws last year when at least 20 yards in the air. No one else in the league was above 16 and a half. He's in his own zip code. And how aggressive he is out of empty. So he was, I believe he was four of, 15 on those throws on deep throws out of

empty last year. Aaron Rogers was 10 of 13. You couldn't be more you couldn't be further apart and how efficient they were on deep throws out of empty. And it's, I went back and I watched all of them from each guy. I was like, all right, how is

this different? Why is Roger so effective and why is Russ? He's terrible last year. Even if we think of Russ as a really good deep passer. Of those 13, that Rogers threw, zero of them. Not a single one was to a player outside the numbers that started outside the numbers on that side. There was not a single deep go ball outside the numbers of Rogers' 13 throws.

Russ eight of those plays, eight of his 15 were those exact type of plays. If you look at what the Packers were doing out of those sets, slot fades, it's big cornerouts from the inside with chip help out of empty. it's big dagger concepts to Devante coming across and that to me is where I'm honing in on what can be different for Russ in this offense can they just make little tweaks to make things easier on it think about how different it is to throw a slot fade or even from a condensed split to the number one receiver

to the outside rather than a guy that starts outside the numbers and you have to fit it out there how much space you have to deal with and I think that the Packers did such a good job with that stuff little tweaks with alignment, little tweaks with, all right, how can we make this a tiny bit easier on you? So I want to see them top into his aggression, but just make it a tiny bit simpler for him to execute some of this stuff. No, I wholeheartedly agree because it's kind of a, I would say a waste. Like you want to get into empty because you want to attack intermediate areas. And I think like launching those go balls, like the slot fade makes sense because usually you're

doing that against man or a pressure look. And that's, your answer to that. Go balls are, we call them 50-50 balls. It's more like 30, 70 or probably just whatever Russ's stats are. That's really what we could say. And you just got to think, it's just the space that you have to maneuver it like you're hinting at. Like it's either you launch it. They beat them. You know, the Rainy Moss style, boom, he's running right past him or the Randy Moss he's dunking on a guy or a back shoulder. Like that's the room for error that you're giving. A slot fade, you have room to work with. So a better quarterback. And I love that you bring up with Rogers because you think of him that like he almost back shoulders up because you give him like room to work against that pressure.

So I love those examples that you're bringing up because that's really how you have to do with Russ because I think he just automatically short hands himself and goes one and done go balls baby. Like that's the easy answer for him. He's like I'm taking my one-on-one. So it's like technically he's right. But then do you look and I mean even my article, it was 2019. He was 17th out of 25 in empty formations like that it's not his strength even though he wants to feel like it is. And that's give him those one and duns. Make it so the read and the decision is easy,

but make the throw a tiny bit easier. Make the throw a tiny bit easier. And I think those little levers and just twisting the knobs a little bit, I'm really interested in that. And then we know a huge part of this offense is going to be under center play action. Rogers had 100 under center play action dropbacks last year. It was about 17% of his total dropbacks. Not as big as some other quarterbacks that were near the top of the league.

obviously Tanna Hill is really high up there. I think Matt Ryan was over 20%. Four or five quarterbacks were up over 20. Rogers was just behind that. I think part of that is because the Packers had so many plays where its advantage throws to Devante as part of the run game. So there's not as much under center play action as you might think within this system. Russ was third in EPA per dropback on under center play action last season.

He's very good at it. And I think it mitigates some of those concerns we have about him seeing in the pocket and all of that stuff if you're getting him on the move. So I would expect that to be a huge part of what they do. It makes a ton of sense. And when you run that play action stuff, like you're saying, what mitigates its height, it's you're giving himself room to read it because those routes are all going to be 15 yards or more. And so just whenever you play Madden, what do you do with the quarterback?

You lean backwards with them, right? Back, back, back. You kind of give yourself space. That's what shorter quarterbacks like Baker and Russ do and even Kyler is they work backwards because they're just giving themselves more room to see those routes. What play action does, especially heavy play action, when I say heavy, like seven-step drop, deep stuff, it's really a nine-step drop. You're about nine and a half to ten yards behind the line of scrimmage when you set up by definition.

That's what was cracked me up at Wisconsin, by the way, like Tolzine's tape and then Russ's tape, like Tolzine was actually the teach tape because Russ had his own little ways to do everything. Like everything he'd instead of hitching, he bounced. And so it was like, okay, Russ, you know, Russ's two bounces. So Scotty was two hitches. And then that's how you kind of like taught it. But anyways, but running that play action stuff. So it's attacking downfield, one.

That's the one strength that we already talked about. And maybe if Russ doesn't see the underneath stuff, because usually on a play action, you have the checkdown, which can be very valuable. I always bring up the example of for the Rams a few years ago with Todd Gurley. How many times you saw him catching a checkdown in the flat and he's turning up field and getting 20, 30 yards? It was hilarious because they're just pushing downfield. Russ is okay on checkdowns, but he uses his legs as a checkdown.

And that's another thing. That's creating space. All those defenders have their backs turned to you. And so it just kind of ties in what he's good at. Why try and build anything else? Like that's what you're good at, even if he wants to do the empty stuff. Let's make sure we kind of prioritize or major in the play action stuff. I wanted to run this by you.

Out and said somebody I thought was interesting saying that out of empty, the Packers had a lot of coverage-specific beaters within their offense. With Russ, he had plays that were more all-purpose. that it doesn't really matter I have an answer for everything within the concept of this play. Do you think that's putting too much on him if they're letting him kind of choose those plays from the menu rather than against this coverage we're tapping into this exact play? If he were a guy that found the answer every play, I'd be, I'd say, yeah, do that. But no, like it's probably not the best because like we said, he goes one and done. And when you're in quick game or quick game drop back, I should say five man protection, you kind of

have to be one and done. You're kind of going one to two. That's the quickest you can be. Because I think what they're talking about with the Packers is they'll have two plays out of empty when they kill the, when they get break the huddle. So it's a if it's single high or if it's pressure, okay, we're going to check to a man beater. What's a man beater? Inside, you know, slot fades. Okay, oh, wow, they're running cover two or they're dropping eight here.

Okay, let's run a dagger concept on the front side or give herself a high, low of some sort working over the middle. So I think that's maybe what he's referring to because other ways you can do empty is you kind of split. of split field it. So the two-man side is a cover two or quarters beater. And then the three-man side is a single high beater, a pressure beater. That's kind of like what you, the general empty plays. Like when you look at an empty play, it's kind of funny. It's just two combos working in unison as opposed to a whole, all five working in together,

if that makes sense for everybody. It's really split field reading it. I, the Packers ran a play. Can't remember who was against. I think it might have been the Niners. They were in an empty look. They had the tight end and the running back, tight to the formation. chips on both of the edges

and NVS comes from the number three inside spot on the left all the way across and I think obviously that's RAMs stuff and it's what the Rams did all of last year I think we're going to see more of that this year I think we're just going to see teams try to do as much as they can out of that

because it's a cheat code you can get five out into the formation but you can run your deeper developing stuff and that's going to be one of the challenges as more and more defenses start to put roofs over passing games how do you still create explosive plays? And you can do it, but you need multiple deep developing routes.

So it's all going to be about how much time do you have to throw those. And getting five out and shipping, I think, is a way to solve those problems. The RAMs showed us that. But I do think we're going to see more teams try to do that stuff because it's an answer to the specific problems defenses are presenting right now. Yeah. And what's so nice with that is it's kind of counterintuitive. intuitive like because with the chipping it's not like those chip guys are truly in the

protection it's truly empty protection five man which is you think like how do you get to the deep stuff that they bring a blitz what's great when you're in a spread formation like empty you can't see who's coming yeah you can't blitz they can't blitz it you can't blitz it so it's kind of funny how it's like you just take that weapon away from them and so many defenses just have empty checks hey we're going to run this call oh shoot they're empty okay uh you know two two quarters you know whatever they their check is and so it's kind of you're making them more basic it's kind of it's a weird way of making them more basic but it's i agree i think but those guys have to hang in there it's old school football but out of empty that's all it is these are old school wide cross

which is a a post on a big overrout and a big dig that's all the rams were running last year that's why it was so cool to watch it it was like this shouldn't work but i think i get why it is working and something i've taught so many coaches have just brought up to me over the last few weeks and this is basic and it's not revolutionary but it's become up so many times how can we limit the defense as much as possible because it allows you to know what you're getting coverage-wise, but it gives the quarterback a little bit of a breather too. He doesn't have to sort through eight million things. And I think that if you can do that, going empty is one way to do it, different personnel

groups are another way to do it. But if these defenses now are playing these two high shells and you can get to any coverage out of that shell, how can I do one or two things to take it from 30 things they could play to five or 20 to five. And I think that's going to be a huge challenge for everybody as that menu on defense continues to grow just because of the structure of defenses are playing. Yeah. And when you limit, when you're breaking down to defense or a defense break down on

the offense, you're saying, okay, in this situation, whether it's third and seven plus, third and 11 plus, third and two to five, third and two to six, whatever it is, you look at what their menu is, how much the percentage is. Oh, 20% of time they're in cover two. Oh, 50% of it. time they're in two man and you work your beaters off of that. And just like you're saying, that this all makes sense, limiting it in a way that they can't pull an ace of spades and break your rules on whatever play they want. You just go, you're dictating. It's a way of dictating,

whether it's personnel by formation or tempo. These are ways to do it. Tempo. And that's exactly what I was going to say next. Tempo, I think, is the other one. The one thing that, we'll talk about this when we talk when we do our play caller show. Remember we say, who holds the pen last? Yes. I love that. analogy that and that's what this is that's what they're doing yeah but who holds the pen less and that's what those formations are doing the tempo side of it is if i can get you in the same shit and i can make sure that i'm limiting who you can play on the field and i can limit the defenses that you're running that's what i was talking to a new play caller this year about what he really liked about the bill's offense it was the

tempo they played with and all the things they could get to out of tempo so teams play with tempo that's not new But I think teams that are really pushing forward the evolution, they can get to 60% of their offense while playing with tempo. So you're doing the opposite to the defense of what we're talking about. You're making them account for so many more things as you're playing fast. And I think that's a huge advantage for offense. The Rams are incredibly good at that. So just little tiny things that you feel like we're picking up here. All right.

Next one here. Let's talk about Matt Ryan going to the Colts. I visited with them a little bit today. when you think about Matt Ryan's fit with the Colts, where would you start? Oh, man, I hope they love attacking over the middle of the field. Like, that is Matt Ryan. He is throwing seams, benders, digs. Like, that is, he makes a living off of it.

And that was the favorite stat I had from doing this article was since 2019, no one's throwing the ball between that 10 to 22 yards between the numbers, the central square football field. No one has thrown that area more than Matt Ryan. Him and Tom Brady, the only ones that have 200 more attempts. Like he is, that's where he makes his living. I have another, I got my first crossport comparison of the show. I'm going to compare Matt Ryan to Chris Paul.

You know, Chris Paul makes a living with those long twos. And then he occasionally shoots the three. That's Matt Ryan occasionally shooting long balls. No, we did the threes and layoffs with the Packers and Veronica. So dang it. But no, but Chris Paul. I do like that, though. I do like that.

That's what he is. Man, that's, he can do a lot about Matt Ryan. Because Chris Paul is very much a hall of famer. Exactly. he does he does the hard throws it's like sometimes you wish you would like you know hey like take the easy one take that little one-on-one you got but he's like nah i got my 18-footer and that that's what it is matt ryan throws the 18-yard scene benders he does the hard stuff so kind of like this synergy that he's going to have with the colts receivers they're big they they recruit big guys or draft big guys michael pitman 6-4 alecke pierce 6 3 paris campbell 6-1 moalley cox and jolley woods are like carl anthony towns and rudy gober like they are just like size. So I think all those guys can attack or the middle of the field and you just post them up. And I think it's going to be awesome. I'm like really excited. And then they got this guy, Colin Granson from SMU. I loved last year. He's their little like kind of move tight end. It's like what the hell? This might be some kind of cool, funky offense like Twin Towers. The fact that you're saying this right now is fucking hilarious. We talked to Kiefer. I talked to Kiefer earlier today. Yeah. And one of our conclusion at the end of the conversation was,

We're, me and Nate are going to watch the Colts all year. And we're going to get to a place in like week 11. We're like, man, the Colts, Colts are cool, man. The Colts do a lot of really interesting stuff. I'm pre-outing it. I like how the pieces fit. Frank Reich's doing a great job. They're going to win 11 games.

They're going to win a bad AFC South. And then they're going to get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. It's exactly how it's going to go with me, you, and the Colts. They're going to be one of our favorite teams to watch. Every time I put the Colts. Colts on. It's going to be a noon game against the Titans. They're going to be in one of the boxes on my four box on DirecTV. I'm like, I can't, I cannot wait to watch the Colts today. And they're going to win, they're going to do something ridiculous. It's, I already see it. I already see my

relationship. They're getting Taco Bell at 1 a.m. You know what you're getting into and you're going to regret it afterwards, but there's a time you talk yourself into it. You know, this is perfect. Taco Bell at 1 a.m. It's a central part of my personal part of my personality and so are so is my love for this version of the indianapolis you love the ingredients you're like i don't care what the combination is these ingredients are going to work even if it's the same three every year talking to talking to frank greg and matt ryan today frank rick essentially it was interesting kind of contrasting the conversation with frank rick to the one i had when need hackett with hackett it was very much this is a partnership you know we're going to figure out if he doesn't like it we're not

going to do it we're all going to come to this place the what rike said to me is it's going to be 80% to 85% what we do and 15 to 20% what Matt likes to do. Part of that, I think, is because a lot of what Matt Ryan is good at and what Matt Ryan likes to do fits with what the Colts want to do. There's a synergy to it. Matt said something really interesting today about some of the things he can tap into with his experience because the Colts ran a decent, can run a little bit of under center play action, but they'll do a lot of it from shotgun.

And early in his career, Matt Ryan did not want to turn his back to the the defense. He loved shotgun from under from, he loved play action from shotgun. So the fact that now he can do a little bit more of that within this offense and because Philip Rivers wasn't doing shotgun or play action from under center. Like there are versions of this offense that

fit what Matt Ryan used to do. But then if they want to go under center, he's comfortable doing that. So they can get to their entire breadth of run concepts and what they want to be and how that marries with the play action game really well. The two areas that I think are the most distinct with this Colts offense from what Matt was doing over the last few years in Atlanta.

Number one, RPAs. Just the volume of the RPO game and how often they go to it. They did a little bit of it in Atlanta. Looking at pro football reference numbers, which kind of wonky with RPO's, hard to actually define. It gives you a ballpark. Yeah, so that's exactly how I think about it. So Wentz ran 76 of them last year. Matt Ryan ran 22.

So we're four and a half a game and essentially won a game. And that gap makes a lot of sense. and I think they're going to do a little bit more of that. And what he said to me about it was it's the physical act of it more than the mental side of it. Because the progressions as the way they relate to RPO's, it's not that complicated. It's often a simple read. It's the physical act of knowing when you pull from the mesh point and kind of getting used to that movement more than anything else. It's almost like going back to playing middle infield in high school, which makes a lot of sense when you think about how that is.

And the other side of it is protections. So under Kyle Shanahan and that tree have a very specific set of protection rules. And when guys go from that system to somewhere else or from somewhere else to that system, it's often a pretty big transition. And I want to ask you why that is in a second. But they're giving Matt Ryan pretty much total autonomy at the line of scrimmage. He can get into plays that he likes. He can change the protection.

He is pulling all. He has the clicker in his hand as part of this offense, even in year one, even just getting there. I think part of that is because he's in year 14. He's seen a shitload of stuff. They trust him. Part of that is also because that's what Frank Greke believes. So those to me are the biggest bits of transition that Matt Ryan's going to have to go to,

go into Indianapolis this year. Yeah, like the Shanahan protection stuff, how I've understood it is it's a lot of set it and forget it. And what I mean is it's the opposite of like, if you picture DAC right now, Prescott, he's probably the epitome of it right now. week, Tom Brady, I guess, a little bit when Ryan Jensen was healthy. I hope he's healthy. But those guys are, like we talk about the pen, having the pen last.

They want to make sure that protection is perfect and they have an answer for it. And we are good. We are not throwing hot. It's to avoid throwing hot because hot means usually on third down is that you're getting tackled short of the sticks. That is kind of just like in theory. So you're trying to avoid throwing hot is number one and also making sure that the back get out of protection or out of protection, maybe get them out in a route if you can.

So you're trying to figure out that answer. How I've understood Shanahan stuff is center dictates it. And he just goes, okay, Mike is 54. Okay, we're done. And then we are half sliding. If we're doing the six-man protection, that means the running back is working with the left guard and left tackle. If we're looking just at a normal formation, the center, right guard, right tackle, half slide to the right and the other three, the left guard, left tackle, and the running back work out the other three.

That's just six-man protection as basics. That's what Matt Ryan said today. It's where the back fits in with the offensive line. That's the difference. Yeah, and that makes a lot of sense. And I would say in these other offenses, one that kind of, that's why I like enjoy watching. I've mentioned this before watching the Cowboys because it's similar to what my dad did. What they are doing is, okay, the back can go anywhere.

We are, we are adjusting everything. We are, even if the rules don't make sense, we are figuring out the answer. It's algebra. That's what they're trying to do as opposed to, I think a Shanahan offense is more just basic, hardcore, you know, multiplications table. Like, I think that's kind of a good way to put it. So the timeline of how Matt Ryan shows the Colts and then how they installed the offense, I thought it was really interesting. Before talking to Frank Gregg or Chris Bauerd, he talked to Philip Rivers.

And he wanted to get Philip's sense of what it was like to play in that offense. And I think because he had such a green light with so many elements of it, Matt Ryan was like, all right, I can get behind this. That sounds pretty good at this stage of my career. And so he talked to Philip first, then talked to Frank and Chris Ballard. and just like what they had to say about the value systems of how they built the team and what they want to be on offense. Offensive line, defensive line, we want to run the ball.

And that really is a transition for who Matt Ryan has had to be for most of the late stages of his career. I mean, he's been a superhero with the lack of help he's had within that Atlanta offense. And now he's going to a place where it's a balanced team. And that's what he said. It's the most balanced team I've had probably since that 2008 through 2012 run with the Falcons. He said this is a team that's near the top 10 in defense most years with the Colts,

a very good special teams group, and there's just ways for me to get a lot of help within the way that they've built this team. And when they were putting in the offense, Reich and the staff kind of presented it to Matt Ryan. This is what we do offensively. This is what we want to be. That was the first stage of it. And then they showed him plays from the Falcons that they thought fit what they did.

So that was step two. And it was essentially, this is what we think works. Are these your favorite plays? And Reich said his batting average was pretty. Reich said his batting average was pretty good. I was like, how'd you do? And he said, honestly, there was a lot of overlap. And I like that.

I like that as a process because rather than, all right, you show us everything. Let's see if we can kind of Jedi mind trick you into bringing this stuff into the offense. And I think that's a really smart way to handle it. That's perfect. And that's how you have to do with some of these quarterbacks is you have to trick them into their own ideas. Or say like, hey, yeah. Oh, yeah. That's a good one. Huh? And then they're like, man, did you see that play like the box ran? And you're like, that's the same freaking play I showed you three weeks ago. Yeah, right? Right. Yeah. Brady ran it well. Like, yeah. Then also they want to run it. I'm sure that's what like, especially LaFloras talked about that with the Packers and get him

with, with Rogers is that he had to kind of like bring him along and trust them. Hey, this is, hey, this works for you, trust, trust, trust. And I think, you know, I think for how it's going to be with Russ. It's exactly how it's going to be with Russ. And that's what Hackett said. That's what Hackett said. He said what the process with Rogers gave him a lot of lessons about how you,

how you deal with somebody who has some skins on the wall, has been in the league for a while, won Super Bowl, has been an MVP candidate. Like you really have to get to a place with a guy like that where you can convince him, this is why this is going to work. I promise you,

it's going to work this way, even if you're slightly uncomfortable with it. And that can be a process. I don't think it's going to be nearly as much of a process in Indianapolis. I think the ideas just fit better together. How do you, I'm really interested in how Michael Pittman fits in all this. Just because you talk about that middle of the field area,

him being that slasher type with Matt Ryan. And just him being able to win in every single way in that area of the field where it's like in breakers and slants and just like beating man coverage. I cannot wait to see what their little two-man game looks like because we've never seen that with Pittman. We've watched him with Carson Wentz, which he's such a different type of quarterback, and he just wasn't that guy yet with Rivers. So what he is with Matt Ryan, that's one thing. I cannot wait to see. Yeah, it's strength.

It's like that is what he is. He's going to win with power on those. It's not sometimes it's just going to be pure bully, but he has the athleticism to kind of like create some yards after the catch. I think what you're saying with the in-breaking stuff, that's how I picture it, is they might not lean into like mesh, you know, with double crossers as much as they did with Philip Rivers where they ran it like every other play, which was hilarious. But I think they do it enough. Like that's, you talked about how Matt Ryan lets them do certain things. He opens up the entire playbook, even if you don't think of him that way. It's that he is above average at every aspect, deep throwing.

He can hit the intermediates. He can run quick game. He can do RPO's even if he hasn't done. of nakeds and bootlegs stuff. So think of all the naked bootlegs they can do, especially if they're going under center. That's going to tie in even more, especially with their run game, which I think Jonathan Taylor, being Wisconsin back, was a better under center run game guy as well and a pistol guy. I think that ties all in together.

So now you get these guys on the move. So you get Pittman crossing the field on overs and crossers and slants and digs, stuff that's in and in because that's where he likes attacking. It's not running quick out routes or deep outroutes where it's like, okay, Nice 10-yard gain, nice tackle, okay, whatever. Now he's catching a crosser, throwing it in 12 yards instead of six. When you look at the mesh play that I think the Colts probably ran the most, I don't have numbers on it when Rivers was there. It's a mesh and then it's a corner, a tag to the mesh.

And it was the corner to the tight end. And think about Philip Rivers at that stage in his career. He wants to float the ball into space. So- grenade launcher. Either of those little shallow crossers, I'm throwing into the flat leading somebody somewhere. Or with the corner, I can throw that into space. with Matt Ryan, I wouldn't be surprised if they're tagging a deep dig behind those crossers because he can sit that ball in.

He has the arm to do it at this stage. I love Philip Rivers more than members of my own family. When Philip Rivers was playing for the Colts, there weren't a lot of in traffic, in breaking routes that he was slinging. Matt Ryan can still do that even at age 37. Yeah, and he loves to do it. He is, I'm telling you, he loves those long twos. He's going to just be launching them.

I love that you brought that up with the mesh variation. That's what it's hard to sometimes you tag stuff with mesh. Like I always thought with Lincoln Riley's mesh in Oklahoma because he's an air raid guy by nature, or now he's at USC. But he would tag Outbreakers, which we're going to talk about another quarterback that would love to throw those. Throw the Outbreakers. He wouldn't even mess with the mesh, the triangle in the middle. He would just throw the Outbreakers to the field every single time. I love that they were able to tag.

That speaks to Frank Reich, though. Like he is just so adaptable to what his quarterbacks can do, which that's why I think they're going to make some sweet music, I think, in Indianapolis. I also cannot wait to see Neheme Hines be back as part of this offense because Carson Wentz is not throwing the ball to a running back unless he's being tortured into doing it. I think that Matt Ryan is going to do a lot of that within the rhythm of who they are, and I can't wait. By the way, Chris Paul, 11 days older than Matt Ryan.

Good one on you, buddy. Good job by you. Last thing before we move on, from what I've heard, it seems like you might be ready to do a victory lap on Alec Pierce when we get into the season. He's apparently looked very, very good. So if that happens, that's going to be a good one for you. That's going to be a good moment.

What did you happen? Where did you rank him? Or receiver seven. So like after the kind of like or six, whatever the ones after the first round bunch. He was kind of like my best after that. It was him in Picketts. So I've actually kind of,

I got double stretch going on right now. I gave him the same grade because I'm a coward. But it was kind of like it was a late. It was like borderline second or first round. I could see them going 25 to 40. And I don't think anyone else had Pierce in that range. I think everyone else had them a lot later than that. And the fact that the-

Late Blooming volleyball player? Are you kidding? Like, yeah. You are a parody of yourself. All right. Let's get to the guy that Matt Ryan replaced in Indianapolis. Carson wants going to Washington. The sense I get after talking with some people there is after what they experienced with Taylor

Heineke last year, they wanted big questions. quarterback throw far. They really, really needed somebody that could push the ball down the field. And that's what Carson Wence can do.

If Carson Wence can do anything at this stage of his career, it's pushed the ball down the field. On throws of 20 plus air yards outside the numbers last year, Taylor Hineckee was

32nd of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per attempt. He was 32nd in completion percentage. On those exact throws, Carson Wence was fourth in completion

percentage and fifth in EPA per attempt. Taylor Hananke, on those passes, completed 25.7% of his passes. Carson Wentz completed 51.4. Like, there is not a lot that I would love Carson Wentz doing right now. Big throws outside the numbers and using that physical talent that he has and trying to tap into that as much as possible. I think that's exactly what Washington saw in him. Whether that can overcome the other deficiencies in who he is as a quarterback at this point is another conversation.

but I do think that was the driving force behind making the move. Yeah, and I hate to like kind of keep repeating the points. But play action with him helps him out too because like I was talking about with play action, it's one to check down usually. And let's limit the field that he's looking at because sometimes with play action, you don't have to cross the field and progress. So you're less is more with Carson. Like how I think I titled it was how do I stop in my article is how to stop Carson Went,

from being Carson Wentz. And it was just stop him from having those blow up moments where he's trying to throw the ball with his left hand. I think that's where if you're trying to build the whole plane out of RPO's with him, his RPO's is that if you pull the read to throw it and that guy's not open, you don't like to look, oh boy, like it goes into creation mode with Josh Allen. That's like, hell yeah, let's go, buddy. Let's go wild horse it.

With Carson Wentz, it's more like, no, no, no, no, no, don't open that door, Carson. Please don't do that. Like, because you don't know what's going to open up on the other side. A couple of the play action stats. Wentz was seventh in the NFL and EPA per attempt on under center play action last year. I assume that's going to be a bigger part of Washington's offense than it was. Heineke was third in the league in play action percentage last season. Third.

And Wentz was fifth, but a lot of those from Heineke were shotgun play action plays that are more quick hitting. Those are not deep developing play action. I think he was 18th in air yards per attempt on play action. Wentz was also pretty low, but I think that number is skewed because of RPO's. So there are a lot of quick hitting RPO. So I don't think you can really take a lot from that. I assume we're going to see some deep. bigger play action concepts from Washington this year because they have Carson Wentz in the

contrast with him and Taylor Heineke. When you talk about trying to limit what's rattling around in Carson Wentz's brain, that is the biggest difference to me. We just talked about what it is with Frank Reich and Matt Ryan and Indianapolis and how they're set up. Everything is at your disposal on the Colts. And Matt Ryan said something interesting. He said that this is the first time in my career that my head coach is a quarterback and that my play caller is a quarterback, a former NFL quarterback and what that means about how that guy sees the game. And Frank Reich is a quarterback. He played in the NFL.

You can understand why he wants to give his quarterback everything. Every tool is now in your toolbox. You can get us in the right play. I trust you to get us to a place that we want to be. That is not going to happen in Washington. There was a clip from the preseason game. they were changing the protection, center's doing it.

The center is going to handle a lot of that stuff. There aren't a lot of within the play reads for receivers in that offense, and there is not a lot of autonomy for the quarterback at the line of scrimmage. They are going to try to put Carson Wentz in a small box and say, we need you to do this stuff in this box. Don't break it, don't break it, don't break it, don't break it, don't break it. I don't know if it's going to work, but I understand it as a general plan. Right.

Right. And actually, even the receivers they have, like, Scary Terry and I love Jahan Dotson. He's great on the intermediate stuff. And Curtis Samuel. And Curtis Samuel, like in 11 personnel, it will be Terry McCorn, Jehan Dodson, and Curtis Samuel. And with Logan Thomas, I can get on board with that. Yeah. And they have John Bates, who's like a nice underneath tight end. Like I knew. I knew you were going to mention John Bates. Really? I absolutely. I knew that. No, I just knew you. were going to mention John Bates, the second number two blocking tight end was going to be a part of this conversation with you in Washington. He's got nice hands. He's like a perfect underneath option for him. Again, it's all break glass in case of emergency. We don't need any tip balls for Carson. Like he's going to throw it wild so we need guys I can catch. So hey, if the blocking tight ends got soft hands,

that's only a benefit for them. But no, I agree. He's, he's, he's a good deep ball thrower. He's, you know, he's willing and able to throw it deep. Like he'll do it. So if you just point him in the right direction. Just let them, you know, blow some shit up, I guess. That's kind of, I think, what you hope for with Carson. And you look at what they paid for Carson Wentz, the two third round picks that one of them could be a second depending on playtime, him making about $27 million this year. I think at a certain point when they made that move, it was, what's the difference between paying Carson Wentz $28 million and paying the stopgap quarterback price now, which is like, what did any adult make last year? Ten? It's ten for a guy that you...

to 12. You know as a bridge or we're paying a guy that we think is still a starter, a starter level player, even if he has deficiencies. And we just wanted somebody that we could run an NFL offense with because for the last two years, they really haven't had that. Think about what they've had a quarterback over the last two seasons. They've had a combination of Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith coming off that injury. And then last year they had Taylor Hineke for 16 games. You've seen Fitzpatrick in this offense. I would have liked to see it. I understand that Carson Wentz is not an exciting option,

but I think when you're trying to pin down why they would want Carson Wentz, you have to understand what they were trying to operate with over the last two seasons. And this is me reading into it. This is not something that was directly communicated to me, but I think that's a huge part of it is that Carson Wentz may have a lot of faults, but Carson Wentz can do a lot of things that an NFL quarterback should be able to do as far as physical talent goes. And that goes a long way when you've been working with guys who really don't belong as NFL starters for the most part. Remember we talked about the Bengals off into line, the Jaguars receivers, and we said it's even going from crap to just average or below average, it means it's just not crap anymore.

So it is still an improvement. When you just get so used to just the garbage bin, like it's like, okay, all right, this is not the garbage. bin. You know, it's like we are no longer in this realm. It's garbage big adjacent. Adjacent, though, but it's not the garbage bin. You're out of it. You know, at least got like you're breathing. Like, you know, you got some fresh air a little bit. I think that's all it is for them. I mean, that's, I don't know. It's, I think, I think Scott Turner does a good job. His offense is actually kind of fun to watch. But I think he's a really good offensive coordinator. I do. He's a fun day as designer. He leans into the stuff that's good. The four by one stuff, a lot of motion.

Like, he's trying. He tries stuff like so much more than, other coordinators do. Washington finished 21st in offensive DVOA last year with Taylor Heineke. They played five centers last season. And I've joked about this before. We did it on the show with Ben Standig. I think that Scott Turner did too good of a job last year for us to give him credit for doing a good job.

We like forgot that Taylor Heineke was an XFL quarterback because they weren't. Yes, he was a backup XFL quarterback. And we forgot that they weren't unwatchable. They were not an unwatchable offense last season. And I think that says a lot about how well they put their players in positions to succeed. So, you know, their ceiling is certainly capped with whence. But I do think that they're going to be fine. Yeah.

Interesting. Interesting is better than crap. Like, I mean, totally is. So that's exactly where I think they're going to be. All right. Let's get to Baker Mayfield and Carolina. I will fully admit that I did not do a lot of prep as related to Baker Mayfield and Carolina.

I was going to lean on you for this because I saw you rewatching their preseason game. What do you think about the fit with Baker Mayfield and Ben McAdoe within this offense? I'm trying to figure it out because the Ben McAdo offense with the Giants was two by two formations with 11 personnel, three receivers, tight end receiver and two receivers on the other side, two by two and quick game. And then a lot of running the ball from those formations as well, which they did a whole bunch in that first couple drives when Baker was in there. And they were giving guys real reps. So I'm like, I am reading a little bit more into them than maybe I would with like any other team. like what the, you know, 40-9ers are doing.

Like, you know, they're trying, they know who those guys are going to be. This team's trying to figure it out. So, okay, that's not really Baker's strong suit. And that's what has me a little scared is I don't want to have Baker be the trigger man. We're talking about kind of like making it easier on him. Baker's kind of a mixed guy. You want to do the play action stuff because then he can kind of just go one to two. Baker is another guy that he's actually pretty good throwing intermediate deep.

He also has the Madden drop stuff because of his height. So you have to kind of limit what he can do, but he does do some throws well. And it looked like McAdoo was trying to kind of mix it all up. So you had all this Packers and giant slant flat stuff. Everyone remember Ben McAdoo's offense coordinator of the Packers before he got the job in New York. And what they would do, it would be a joke. It was a meme for a while was slant flats, slant flats, you know, just same quick game over and over. I already saw two of those on these drives inside.

I'm like, I'm not hitting the alarm bell, but I'm like hovering over it right now. kind of like, no, don't do this with Baker. You did it with Eli. Eli was, this was not for Eli either. Come on, man. So, okay. PTSD. Oh, it's, it's so brutal.

It was so brutal to watch because they're just getting there. This was the other thing watching the Panthers team. And I know it's, okay, first off, they traded the same for Matt Corral that Washington traded for Carson Wentz. I mean, basically two thirds. So that guys, they're four-string quarterback right now. And it looked like he barely play, which was kind of scary to watch. But also, when you're watching this offense, there's just so much. sloppiness.

They were running, not just play-wise, but the receivers were busting a good amount. Guys were going to the wrong guy in the run game. There was a lot of just, and there was the ones, twos, and threes. And that's like always scary to watch. It's like, oh, boy, oh, boy, it's not just the players. It's how you guys are implementing these plays. And I don't want to say, like, they might do some cool stuff. I have no idea.

But the initial impressions were a little shaky of this offense and with Baker in it because it's like, what do you guys want to do? CMC, yes, will help. But even the running game that they were trying to do was kind of, of not sound. They didn't have a receiver blocking a safety when they should have. I know I'm getting too deep into it. We're supposed to be talking about Baker, but I'm already kind of, I'm trying to catch my

breath a little bit without watching the Panthers offense because it was some schlock. I just watched Terminator 3, right, rise of the machines. And this was worse than that. Like this was some satire. I do think it's a worthwhile conversation because if we're thinking about where Baker's been successful, it's within structure on a team that has a lot of talent, especially up front and the way they could lean on the run game. If you minimize what you're asking from Baker and again, kind of put him in a box,

same as we were talking about with Wentz, we've seen him be successful. So it's about what type of help he's getting in Carolina. So that's from the players. That's from the office system, all of that stuff. So that is relevant if we're talking about how he fits within this office. That's what I'm trying to figure it out because it looked like they were trying to do some to play action stuff. And Baker actually launches deep ball and it would have been okay.

but then again on the design, they didn't tie down the backside corner. I don't want to get too deep into it, but again, there's a design issue with the play. And so it's again like, oh, no, because Baker is not a guy

that you want to thrive in chaos. He is not a guy that thrives in that. Like you said, you want it to be structured because he's willing to be aggressive. It's just limiting, it's kind of raising his bar. I mean,

I know that sounds like simple stuff, but that's what he needs, I think, to be successful and build his confidence up. Anything else about how he fits with them that you just feel like, we should be looking for when the season starts? I think him and DJ Moore actually will have some good chemistry because I was going to ask you about

personnel. Yeah, I think he'll have some good chemistry with DJ Moore. I would say that is one of the bright sides. If they do lean into more deeper stuff out of the play action stuff, I think he's going to be like, Sam Darnal last year, like was never targeting DJ Moore down the field. It was like, it was actually kind of hilarious. He was just running choice routes to CMC. And so now they actually can attack down the field.

So actually should give him more breathing room. The offensive line should be a little bit better. So that will help. And hopefully CMC is healthy and that will help the run game. So it can, you know, there's some synergy like as far as kind of like his throwing style and what DJ Moore's good at because DJ Moore is best at intermediate deep stuff, I think. Anyways. All right. Let's get to the Steelers who I'm going to start with Mitchell Chubisky because he is their starting quarterback right now.

And I think they are planning on him being their starting quarterback going into the season. Let's let's start with a philosophical conversation about that. because I think with some franchises, they should do everything they can to maximize and prioritize the long-term development of a quarterback you draft in the first round. Even if you have to take a small step back in year one, that guy getting live reps, that guy getting experience, and that guy growing is the most important thing. I don't think the Steelers can rationalize a decision like that. because when you're a Mike Tomlin led team and you're always competitive

and you have Cam Hayward and Mike McA Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt, all guys they've paid. They just pay Deontay Johnson. Mike Tomlin can't coach the way that Mike Tomlin coaches and go into a room and look Cam Hayward in the eye and be like, listen, I know we're playing the worst guy,

but you got to trust that it's going to matter more two years from now. Maybe in a vacuum, that's probably the better way to do it, but that's antithetical to what this team is. They are going to put the best team on the field in week one. And right now, in their minds, Mitchell Trubisky gives them the best chance to beat the Bengals in week one. Just go run around a little bit, Mitch. That's what it kind of is. I think it is.

I know it's not Mason Rudolph. I can tell you that. That's the one name I know I'm throwing out. I've seen them enough. It's done. It's done. I was at training camp. I'm all set with the Mason Rudolph experience.

Yeah, the count is in. He's, yeah, the results are in. But I think with Mitch, at least he can run around. Like, at least he can, like, do some plays like that and willing to, like, always he could run the offense. He actually looked okay on the first couple drives of preseason. At least he looked calmer than maybe I remember him being in Chicago because it was the Chicago offense.

So it's kind of like seeing him kind of operate with that. It looked a little bit better. So, all right, that's what it is because even looking at at Kenny Pickett. the end of the game, that kind of stuff was, it looked sometimes it was a little fast for him. I'm not saying it's a lost cause or anything as far as maybe Mac Corral or something, but a lot of the stuff was, he was taking the underneath options, sometimes throw it outside. Good accuracy, like we know, but I think as far as progressing against NFL defenses, he's still not there yet.

Eyes were looking down at the rush a little bit, but it's still like, was enough glimmers of hope that's like, okay, well, let this guy compete a little bit, but, you know, there wasn't overwhelming watching him in the fourth quarter. I thought anyways. There's just so much that you have to fine-tune to get ready to play quarterback in the NFL. And you're going to be bad at a lot of it early on. Guys are just going to be, there are so few players that are able to succeed right away, independent of what's around them.

And Joe Burrow, going back to Joe Burrow, who was pretty good his rookie year, it's so important to remember that they were running LSU's offense. They gave him so many ways to be like, all right, we're going to make you comfortable, we're going to make you comfortable. And Justin Herbert is somebody else that was really good early on. You shouldn't take lessons from Justin Herbert. If you're trying to use Justin Herbert as an example, you're setting yourself up to fail the man as an alien.

So the fact that Kenny Pickett doesn't look comfortable, there's a lot of stuff where you can kind of see the gears turning. That's okay. And that's why he's not going to play right away. That's why, because they don't think it's worth letting him work through that stuff in real time on that stage for them to take a step back with being competitive. You joke that Mitch running around is the benefit and the appeal.

When I talked to somebody there about, all right, why Mitchell Chubisky and the movement and the mobility was the first thing that they mentioned. And it's not surprising because that's what he does well. He is a good athlete. And I think there are two sides to this. One, he allows them to run under center play action. Ben did not let them do that. Matt Canada could not run the offense he wanted to run last season, period. He just couldn't do it.

I think that no matter what you brought to Rathusberger, there was always going to be a, I want to be able to control this. I want to sit in shotgun, and I want to be able to do what I want to do, and that's just how this is going to go. How many under-center play-action dropbacks do you think the Steelers had last year with Ben?

It's probably embarrassing, Will, like a dozen? It's more than that. It was way more than I thought. It was 45. So there were 45 under-center play-action plays from the Steelers last year with Ben Rathusperger. still near the bottom of the league and rates, very close to it. How many sacks do you think he took on those 45 place?

Oh, God. 21. Nine. Oh, dang. I wanted to be like myself. On 45 dropbacks, he took nine sacks, a 20% sack rate on those place. I wanted 50. I want to like 45.

That would have been hilarious. So if you're looking, if you're trying to talk yourself into Mitchell Trubisky, that being able to create outside the pocket and move, around and just lean into how Mickey Mouse and nonsense a Matt Canada offense is, which that's what it is. He is the right guy. He is the right guy to just be smoking mirrors. We're going to run him around. There's going to be a million moving parts and we're just going to try to beat you with like crazy deception. Mitchell Trabisky is a fine guy to do that. But if you look at where Mitchell Trabisky was best, the one area where he was very good, in 2020, among 36 qualified

quarterbacks. Where do you think Mitchell Trubisky ranked in EPA per play on under center play action? I'll give him 12. Second. No, really? He was second in the league behind Aaron Rogers. Wow. So you're having to tell yourself a story to make Mitchell Trubisky the guy you want to be your starting quarterback, but I think that's the first line in the story. Yeah, we talk about leaning into what your quarterbacks are good at, so let's lean into it. Like, I mean, this is what these are the, This is the hand you've been dealt as coaching staff, as a coaching staff, you know, so it might as well, oh, yeah, of course you want to sit back and shotgun every point and just have Tom Brady do it. Like, everybody wants to do that stuff.

But if you don't have that, let's lean into movement stuff. And also with the young offensive line that they have, you're getting guys on the move. You're trying to create, it's just all window dressing. Matt Canada offense is all, you know, whipped cream with like a gram of a brownie underneath it. And that's what it is. It is. There's not a lot of substance to it. You'll see it once the season starts.

They're in this formation. Okay? They're going to run this play. They're in this. Remember we talking about the Bengals offense being too siloed sometimes? That's what I'm worried about with the Steelers offense. That when they're in this formation, they're running this. And you can do that when you have badass players and like just, I mean, the Colts did it for a decade.

But if you're not really kind of leaning into the smoke and mirrors aspect, you're supposed to like vary it up. This is what I'm trying to say. If you're running the same, like, tricky thing every single time, tricky motion every single time, and you run the same play with that tricky motion every single time, it's still a tell. No matter what it was, you might catch him the first time, but you can't go back to that well, you know, because defenses are too good. So I'm curious if Matt Kanan has learned that lesson, because that's kind of what he's been over his career. And let's see it with Matt Trubisky, because I think at least he will give him some way to break glass in case of emergency when stuff breaks down.

the nonsense meter on this offense is going to be a 12 out of 10. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. It's going to be hilarious. The offense is going to be crank up all the way. There will be some fun stuff. Don't get me wrong. There will be some fun stuff.

But then there's going to be, yeah, a lot of sizzle, not a state. A lot of us, not a lot of steak. All right. Last one here because I'm treating Gino Smith as the Seahawks starter. He is not a quarterback in a new place. Deshawn Watson's going to miss two thirds of the season. I don't think it's worth talking about him as part of this. Marcus Marriota go into Atlanta.

I don't think we have to spend a ton of time on this. Marcus Mariotta is a stopgap quarterback on a team that we think is going to be very bad. But how do you think Marcus Mariotta fits with the way the Falcons want to play? I'm a sucker for this island of misfit toys offense that they got going on. Cordelia Patterson, tight end on third down, chip helping. You know, Kyle Pitts, outside receiver, sure, why not? Drake London looks awesome on his one play on his one target that he got hurt. But I think he's going to be okay, but he did look good.

Mariotta, another guy that can run around. He, when he, since he's been a starter in 2016, he's fourth and first downs per rush for quarterbacks. Since 2016, that's years without even starting. You can see Arthur Smith, even in the first game, Mariotta and Reader, the backup were just, it was motion and it was a lot of play action, a lot of nakeds and a lot of quick hitters.

It looked like that Titans offense a little bit. And honestly, what happens sometimes, what works sometimes with Tanna Hill was he, that play action didn't work. He ran for a first down. And Marriota can do that as well. He's still a tremendous runner. So I don't know.

It's going to be a fun kind of, I really like what Arthur Smith's offense looked like last year. It's one of the most amusing watches. Like, same with Washington. Like it's, it's interesting. And I think, yes, I don't think they're going to be a good team, but it's interesting to watch. And I think Mariotto be a part of that because he's such a fun athlete who can once

a while get hot. He's a very streaky thrower. So I think they're leaning into what he's good at. A lot of digs, a lot of endbreakers and, you know, run around a little bit, Marcus. Yeah. I want to miss Fitzways. way to put it. I don't think the Falcons are going to be very good, but I do know that every once in a while and be like, I wonder what the Falcons did this week. And you queue it up and that's just

kind of how it goes. Yeah, they're going to catch some teams. Like where they, they all of a game against like a good team. And they're like, oh, wow, Falcons won that game like 2417. Like, you didn't expect that one. I think they'll have a couple of those. Ficed. That's not what they want though. I want 35, 31 Falcons losses so I can watch Bryce Young in this offense next year. That is the goal here. Right everywhere. That's the goal here. That's all we got.

You and I will be back on Monday, correct? We're going to be talking about the top 10 offenses or the offenses we think are going to finish in the top 10. We're going to guess. I want us to guess the top 10 in offensive DVOA at the end of this season. We nail all our predictions. So this is the show for that. It's a terrible idea. It's a terrible idea.

And that's why I'm very excited to do it. It's the best. It's the best. because the ones we nail, we just never stop talking about it. We never bring up any other parts of it. It's going to go so poorly. All right, bud, always good to chat with you. We'll talk to you soon.

See, yep. All right. It's time to get to our conversation with Zach Kiefer. Let's get to it. All right. Time now to chat with one of our Colts writers here at The Athletic. The writer host of Luck, our six-part narrative series about Andrew Luck that ran on the athletic football show earlier this summer. If you have not listened to that, I don't know.

what you're doing. Please go do that. But for now, we're going to talk about some current Colts. Was that Kefer? Is that how you doing, bud? I'm good. In a week, I'll be leaving Westfield and done with training camp. That sounds nice. Yeah, I was melting, as I was talking to Matt Ryan earlier today, just sweating through my shirt like a disgusting person.

We need to be home. That's what he said. It didn't make me feel any better about how I was presenting myself. I've been out in the sun a lot over the last couple weeks. This team is in such an interesting place. I said it to Frank Greig today. We're having the exact same conversation you and me every single summer because they have a new quarterback. And now it is a guy who won an MVP award who's been a high level player

for a decade and a half. And I think you can kind of feel that in the way that they're thinking about themselves and the way that they're approaching this offense. And that's the thing that's jumped out to me the most today is that I think there's a sense of calm about this version of the transition that there was not last season. That's a good point. And you talk to some people around the organization and they come up to you and some players will say it's night and day from where it was last year and that's a player telling you and it's it's kind of hard to talk about matt ryan without going back to the quarterback last year but i think unlike carson wince with matt ryan there's so less imagination yeah you know what you see every day and you know what you're going to see on

sundays this fall and last year that was totally not the case because when the ball is snapped it was almost like a roller coaster because you didn't know what was going to happen And I remember we talked last year at the end of the season that Patriots win they had on a Saturday night. And it felt like the season was going to end on a Carson Wentz interception. And they didn't even make the playoffs to get there. But my point is with Matt Ryan, it's so much more predictable. And like you said, the word calm. Players have used that.

He sort of very, very seamlessly walked into this building, become a voice that is respected, a leader that they needed. And he's on guys' asses. And I cannot stress that enough. The one, if I was trying to find the differences between this version of it and the Philbrivers version of it, I think there are a couple different things that stick out to me. One, the weapons are a couple years progressed, right? Michael Pittman is like legit. That's player in camp so far. That's important, right?

And that Matt Ryan's ability to unlock him to me is to me, it's one of the biggest stories about this entire team in terms of why this can be a little bit different offensively than it's been the last couple years. Accessing Neheme Heinz in the passing game is something that they'll be able to do that they did not. last year with once because that's just not how he plays. And the second thing that I feel like is really different between him and Philip, Matt Ryan can still move. Philip Rivers was a statue for the last three or four years of his career, a big, beautiful statue that I love very much. But Matt Ryan is still a lot more athletic and can play that under center play action

stuff in a way that Philip couldn't. And I think that adds a layer to their offense. So there are versions of it and echoes of it that I think will be similar to what it was when Philip Rivers is here. But I think that there are enough new. nuances that I feel like their ceiling on offense is higher than it was two years ago. Yeah, and the efficiency is key. It wasn't efficient last year. It was so run dominant because they had to be. The highlight play against- And Jonathan Taylor is also a different player.

We should mention that as well. That's what I'm getting to is like Rivers had Taylor really ascend very late in that rookie year. But if you go back, he was somewhat benched midway through that season, which sounds crazy because the dude led the league in rushing by 500 yards. But Taylor's on a different level. And they're not going to have to use him as much this year. And that sounds crazy, but they're going to use him more efficiently. But the other guy's Paris Campbell. We've seen it in camp. This guy can change things. I know the caveat is going to come, but I'm still buying him until the end of time because I know that he can play in this league. But with Campbell and Pittman and the rookie Alec Pierce, who's looked good so far, you're going to see Matt Ryan do what

you just said, elevate the offense, and they're going to get back to what Frank Reich wants to do, which is what he did in 2020 with Rivers. Rivers was so good to anticipation throws. He couldn't move. He He was playing with the broken toe, didn't miss a snap, but still would move the ball down the field because he knew exactly what he, ding, ding, ding. It's going to be different this year because they're going to scheme Pittman. And Pittman's going to take a five-yard crosser to the house a couple times because he's that good. We've seen that in camp. And it's the worst kept secret in the league that Nihim Hines is going to have a big year. I just believe that.

They've used him as a receiver a ton the last week. Him and Taylor are on the field together today. And just forget about that. It's like, oh, man, they got that pony look to him where they just have that little element to their offense. The other past catching weapons, so if they're in 11 personnel, we think Pitman, Pierce, Campbell, no questions. Because other than that, like the tight end group to me, obviously Colin Granson is in year two. They had the rookie dropletry who was hurt and is now out for the season.

What are the other kind of ancillary options that we feel like are guys that aren't here every day aren't thinking enough about? So I don't love the tight end group. I'll be honest. I don't love it. They're going to move Moe Alley Cox as the number one now into the Jack Doyle role. It's going to block a lot. he's a big man ogletree and it's hard to explain to people that haven't been here like he's a sixth round pick but he's balled out he's been very good consistently in camp which is what you want to see from a rookie that's a tough break now gelani woods is the third round pick and he hasn't done a whole lot he looks lost a little bit a long way to go he's going to have to step up now he looks like a skyscraper so you see why they drafted him

Granson's the key, and I think you're going to have to live with a couple drops with Grantson. For the Colts fans that go back, it's a little bit like Kobe Fleener. Like, he's going to make the contested catch with the guy all over him, and then he's going to drop the one where he's wide open and could have gone for 30 extra yards. That's going to be frustrating. But I don't love this tight-end group, and you know Frank Reich loves to use athletic tight-ends, move tight-ends. He got Eric Ebron 14 touchdowns in 2018.

Now, these guys are not Eric Ebron, but that's the one hole in this offense. I don't love the depth. I don't love the top-end talent. that could hold them left a little bit. But Ashton Doolin's a guy we have not mentioned. He's a guy that's clawed his way up from special teams. He's had a really good camp, and he's absolutely the fourth wide receiver right now. And there's a big gap between four and five, in my opinion.

Left tackle situation. We think Matt Pryor is going to win that job? He'll be the starter in Houston in week one. I don't know how good Colts fans should feel about that. He's had a couple up and down days. Ryman, the third round pick, is just not ready to start right now. I think the upside is there, and he could take that job. six, ten weeks in, not right now.

That was always going to be a benefit or a bonus. If he could be ready to start week one. On defense, I understand the vision, right? You have this way of playing defense that they had under Maddiebapalus. We're going to be an even front team. We're going to play fast. We're going to play a lot of zone coverage. And that's just how we're going to live.

That's how we're going to live. And there aren't that many teams playing like that anymore. And Gus Bradley's teams are one of them. And the transition from what the defense looked like over the last. three or four years to what the defense theoretically would look like under Gus Bradley makes sense to me. I don't know if that's the right plan, though. Trying to hold over some sort of philosophical continuity but limiting your ceiling in the result, that's an area of this team that gives me some pause. It gives me pause too because of what you said. And I heard you and Nate talking about this last

week, I think. And it's it's really fascinating because they trailed off last year. They weren't as good against the run to end the season, and their best player on defense isn't on the field. And I'm not sure he's going to be on the field to start. And I'm not sure he might not be on Pupp to start, which would be four games. That's Shaq Leonard, formerly Darius Leonard. We're still getting used to the name change here. But Gilmore's been terrific. It's hard to explain how good Stefan Gilmore looks.

It looks like the best player on defense every day. And they're going to mix a little bit more man than previous years because, one, he prefers the man. And even though it's a zone call, and I was just talking to Gilmore about this, he's going to be kind of on his own, that three by one. He's going to be by himself. Maybe the slot, Kenny Moore, isn't quite as punctuated in this scheme. But it's going to be fascinating. And the key that they haven't had for 10 years is the stud pass rusher.

And Ngakwe's been really good so far. And I think he changes things. But I'm going to be very interested to see how this defense looks in week one because they took a step back last year, in my opinion, and they were saved by turnovers. Yes. They were saved by freak plays that almost became a constant because Darius Lunderd was so good. Can you depend on that?

That's a risky way to live in today's NFL. The other corner right now, Brandon Faisan, is, I mean, he knows this scheme extremely well. He's played it in multiple different stops. I can understand that being a stopgap option. It's not the most exciting thing in the world. On the back end, they had a starting safety retire kind of unexpectedly before the season. They obviously took a cross in the third round who was a freak athlete. He's a one right now.

He's just penciled in as a starting safety. He's a starter. He's 20 years old. The other guy we have to mention who's been terrific in camp and could have a breakout season. You could be talking about this guy a lot this season is Julian Blackman. He's the center field safety in Gus Bradley's deep scheme. He's the guy that's going to have a lot of space. He's got those instincts. He's got that jump.

He will make plays. He will make tips. He will make interceptions. And this guy's going to be fun to watch. This guy's, he was healthy and ready to go off an Achilles tear in November. So he heals quickly. He's an athlete. He's going to be fun to watch this year.

What do we think about the second year past rushers and how much of a step that you can expect from them? Because I think that's a huge part of this. You're still waiting on Dio. You're still waiting. I haven't seen it. I haven't seen it. He's a monster to look at.

On paper, he's a monster. But in production, we just haven't seen it yet. This is a guy that needs to play a lot in the preseason. Now, last year was a redshirt year, and I get that. He was coming off the Achilles tear. But he's got a flash. And Quitty Pay, we've seen some good. we've seen some days where he's disappeared.

I think life will be easier with Ngakwe on the other side. But Payne needs to take a step up. Those are first and second round picks. Those are the future of this team at that position. They need to take a step forward. It has been a black hole for Chris Bauer during his time here. A lot of things well, but that is the one spot where they just haven't figured it out despite spending a decent amount of draft capital on it consistently.

What is the goal here, do you think? what is the right season for the 2022 cults? And what is the right two-year span? Because I, here's the way I see this. Matt Ryan fell into their laps. There's no way to know when you've decided in your mind and your heart you're moving on from Carson Wentz that a guy like Matt Ryan is going to be available. They didn't know.

They did not know. You do that every single time. And it is hopefully a multi-year solution, at least two, which would be an improvement for this team, which is very funny. I think it makes you instantly competitive in the AFC. When it comes to winning your own division, you're clearly a step down from the truly elite teams in the conference just because they have 27-year-old superstar quarterbacks.

So if you're the best team in the AFC South, is that enough? Is that what they're trying to be over the next two years? Then you build up the franchise for long enough that when you get to 2024 and Matt Ryan sails off into the sunset after two 11, 10-win seasons and two AFC South titles, first round exits, you seek out what's next, because that's kind of what it feels like to me. Kind of feels like they're running in circles. And what they haven't done is taking the big swing.

And if you don't take the big swing, you kind of live in mediocrity, which is where the Colts have been. They've done a pretty good job at not panicking at the quarterback position since Luck retired, which is what everyone still talks about. I would call the Carson Wents move a panic move. I would, the price for Carson Wentz, I would call a panic move. It's easy to look back. But at the time, it's like, what were they going to do?

I was on board with the decision and given Frank Reich a shot. It didn't work out, and they got out of it spectacularly. It's a heat check by Frank Reich going to get Carson once last year. That's absolutely what it is. Well, he was coming off that high from Phillip Rivers. That's exactly what it is. But it backfired, and it really cost them. I didn't have a first round pick this year.

But to answer your question, yes, it's very clear that this team needs to win the division. It's very much more important to them than it is than maybe the football public. Jim Ursaid hasn't had a home playoff game in eight years, and that pisses him off. they should win the division. AJ Brown is out of Tennessee. The Colts are tired of losing to the Titans. If you remember last year, they could have beat the Titans twice. One game, Carson had a busted ankle.

The second game, he threw a left-handed interception. And then a terrible interception to finish the game. So to start in the short term, they need to win the division. It's going to be tough. It's going to be tough to compete with Denver and the Chargers and all those teams with those young stud quarterback, Cincinnati. But the Colts believe, and this is going back to Bowler's philosophy, And Frank believes this too, that the old school style football will win in January. They think that they can still win that way.

Because this team's about to pay a left guard huge money. Who does that? They're going to pay a running back huge money in the next year or so. Off ball, whitebacker huge money. You have to pay those guys in this system. Can you win big with the way this team is built? It's not a baller's fault. He drafted Jonathan Taylor.

It's not a bad thing. It's not a bad thing he drafted a guard at six and hit a Hall of Famer. but it challenges you to win in today's NFL with those as your building blocks. And with a quarterback who's going to be perfect for this team this year, but it's a two-year window and absolutely has a ceiling. I think there's more than one way to get where you want to go. And sometimes you're the Cincinnati Bengals and you're a terrible franchise for three or four years and you get Joe Burrow and he's just a unicorn, where it just doesn't matter.

And I mean, Jamar Chase certainly helps. But I think the moment Joe Burrow walked in there, they understood that they had an answer. Justin Herbert's the exact same way. I was talking to a quarterback's coach about that this week. That's the exception, I think. I think we've gotten to a place where that is the harder way to do it. And the bills really built it with their quarterback. We've seen so many different ways that it happens. But even talking to Matt Ryan today, the Colts had to sell him on this as a destination. He got to choose where he wanted to go. And he came here because he thought that the way they played and who Frank Reich is and the infrastructure they had here was worth betting on.

So maintaining that, I think there's value in it. And I think that's what they're doing. They're maintaining organizational reputation, standard. You're just keeping it at a certain level to give yourself options later. And that's kind of what it feels like. Because I don't know if this team to win the Super Bowl. I don't think so either. When that unicorn shows up, you're ready.

Who is it, though? Is it a veteran? I think it allows you more opportunities and more pathways to do it. Because if there's a Russell Wilson in two years, whoever that might be, if it goes south with Kyler and Arizona over the next two years, if somebody is available, you want to be a place that's attractive to those people. They are. And I think that's what this is.

And if I'm trying to zero in on what the plan is, it's kind of similar to a conversation that we just had with Nate earlier on today's show about the Steelers and how if you just maintain that feel to who you are eventually that's going to be worth it. You cultivate a certain thing in that place and staying relevant has importance. And I understand it cuts both ways because it doesn't put you in a position to draft the guy, but I don't know. I get it to a certain extent. It's tough because Frank Wright needs to win. He walked into Jim Resey's office last spring and apologized for pushing for the Carson went straight. That was his guy. They're one year and they're out. But you feel like you're running in circles like you've had this

conversation with Frank Reich every August the last three years. This is the stop where quarterbacks come to finish their career or rehabilitate their career. And that's not going to get you to the Super Bowl. That's not going to get you to February, unless it's Matt Stafford in L.A. Or Tom Brady in Tampa. And they haven't gotten those guys. And I just don't think Matt Ryan is quite at that place. You know, he is a nice piece at this point in his career. But, you know, we're six years removed when Matt Ryan won the MVP. It's a long time. He's 37 years old, 38. It's 37. I mean, I hate talking about a 37-year-old man. Like, he's, I have one foot in the grave because we'll be there pretty soon.

He does. He will say this. He seems revitalized. I think he is excited about, we talked about earlier today with Nate. I think he is excited about not having to be a superhero. Yes. And he got to a place in Atlanta where they were really young and the offensive line wasn't very good.

And you just kind of feel like everything is on your shoulders as a quarterback. And this takes him back to a time in his career when things a little bit more well-rounded. The Colts have weapons around him. They have a coach who, as you know, can scheme these guys up to do what they do, and he makes the layups. And that's the infamous quote. But Matt Ryan makes the layups, and we'll see what happens.

But I do think there's a little bit of a ceiling here. This just reminds me of the 20 team, and I know how it's going to go. It's going to be week four, and they're going to put up 35 against somebody, and I'm going to go back and watch the tape, and I'm like, man, I really like this Colts team. And they're going to win probably double-digit games and probably with them. the division because the division's bad and we're just going to be talking about what's the really the ceiling they're going to be an athletic football show favorite because the way that they play and they're well-cooked and they execute that's it it's good football and then you get to a certain

place and it's like all right they lost to buffalo that year in the wildcrow round and if they like if they make a kick they missed an extra point that day like there's just those little things that go wrong but then they get blown out by Cincinnati or I can't see next week it's just like and and that's okay like it's okay to be that sort of team but it feels like that's the that we're headed down again. If there's one thing about football that just kind of gets at me, it's a perfect game. But if there's one imperfection, it's that the quarterback role is so much more important than everything else.

Yeah, and they have a good one. They have a very good one. They do. There are transcendent ones. A B plus doesn't win your Super Bowl. Maybe it does. In these days, I don't know. It seems like such a dower note that to end on, because I do like this team and I am excited

to watch them this year, but it does feel like we're in a familiar place. Maybe we'll revisit this in January or February in Arizona, and maybe we'll laugh at how dumb we're. You know what? Be a hell of a story. I would be thrilled for Matt Ryan. And talking to Matt Ryan today, you could sense it. I had really enjoyed my conversations with him over the years. And I do think that he is excited to be here.

And he is excited to be in this situation. He was excited to be wanted. I mean, he won't say this publicly, but the Falcons courting to Sean Watson, he didn't like that. No, he didn't like that. We talked about this earlier today, staying on the sideline.

You know how hard it is to be a really good NFL quarterback for a decade and a half? He won't an MVP award. Matt Ryan has been really, really good for a long time. And I think we underrate those quarterbacks. You're just taking for granted. Yeah, we do. And I think he is the exact type of guy that we take for granted. And I do think he's going to have a really nice season here.

It'll just be about where they can ultimately take it. When he walked in the door, you could feel it. And the players and the coaches have said this, there was an adult walking in the room. This team needed that. Skins on the wall, man. I mean, there's no replacing that. And that's exactly what he has. Zach Kiefer, always good to chat with you, my friend.

Very good to see you. and we will do this again very soon. Get some sleep. We're almost there. All right, guys, that's all we got for today. Thank you so much to Nate. Thank you so much to Zach. Really enjoyed that.

That was a fun time. We'll be back on Monday with me and Nate talking about top 10 offenses in the league, predicting the top 10 offenses in the league. Until then, please rate and review the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. Sincerely appreciate that. Please subscribe to Theathletic.

Theathletic.com slash football show. enjoy your weekend. We'll talk to you guys on Monday. This was the Athletic Football Show.