The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Football GM: A peek at some of the interesting players in the 2024 draft class

Episode Date: May 11, 2024

Mike and Randy are back with more thoughts on the 2024 NFL draft class. The guys take a look at some surprising and interesting players from this year's draft class. Then we wrap things up with the GM Notebook. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show's Football GM podcast. Welcome everybody to the Football GM podcast. Mike Sando here along with the GM, Randy Mueller. It's good to be together again, friend. How you doing, Randy? Doing good, Michael. Hope you're doing good as well. Looking forward to chatting a little ball here as we start to enter the summertime swoon anyway.

Oh, yeah. We'll get some post-draft reaction. We've got, you know, we'll talk through some of the other stuff going around in the league. But first, Randy, I mean, I think by far. the biggest thing going on this week has to be Austin Rivers stirring it up talking about whether guys go from the NBA to the NFL. And I know Rivers couldn't hang with us on this football podcast, right? Randy, football is just football podcasting is just too physical for guys like that, right, from the NBA,

wouldn't you say? I always come back to this. I just wish, and I love the reaction. It got everybody's reaction, as you know, if you haven't seen the video, it went viral. and everybody's had a comment on it, whether it's Chris Long or James Jones or Charles Barkley, everybody's chimed in on it. But I always say this, when everybody thinks it sounds like a good idea, just have one of those guys stand on the sidelines for a game and not watch from the stands or not watch from upstairs, but actually be next to these collisions of these mammoth men

and the amount of physicality that's involved. and it just makes you shake your head when people like Austin say, hey, there's 30 or 40 NBA guys that could play in the NFL. Now, I would say there might be a handful, but there surely aren't 30. And the ones that can are rare and few and far between. What's funny is, you know, it goes the other way too. The locker rooms in the NFL are filled with guys who think they could play in the NBA. And if you've not been around NBA guys and understand what real length is, right, what it really means to not be able to get, to not be able to get, your shot off.

Because these guys in the NBA is like, there's long guys in the NFL, but it's not even close to the same thing. Not to say that there couldn't be a couple guys who might, you know, be able to have been a great basketball player and could have pursued, you know, a career, but much, much harder than you'd think to transfer into another game. No doubt. But I'll give him this. I do think the greatest athletes, they are in the NBA.

Those guys athletically, just speaking of athletes, I think top all sports. And so I'll give him credit for that. Talk about you. You mentioned the length, but I'm talking about running, jumping, changing direction, all of the things required on a basketball court. Probably one of the most unrelatable parts to the NBA other than the physicality. An NBA player would be just flat out speed because I see a lot of NBA guys and even my buddies will say, hey, that guy could play, but I know he can't run.

And when I say can't run means run for NFL standards. The NFL field is big and it spreads you out fast. It's not a quick little version of arena football. That's the biggest misnomer about the athletic skills of NBA guys is just flat out speed. I would be shocked if a lot of these guys could break four, six. And as you know, that's average speed in the NFL. So I think they would get stretched out and speed would become. the missing ingredient as much as maybe the toughness and physicality.

And that's what goes when you just add length, because let's just face it, if you're in the NBA, you know, you're 6-8 or you're 6-10. I mean, you've got real advantages in a short area playing basketball, but you can't, you just don't have the whatever those levers are, the core strength or, you know, the real ability to open it up and really go is special among those NFL guys with a combination of size, too, you know, in terms of just their bulk. When we see a longer like safety or a longer outside linebacker or somebody with length, that's the first thing that comes to my mind is, well, can he break down and can he open his hips and really run?

And there's an area, like you said, with length comes a little bit of stiffness. And so it would be a harder transition than probably Austin Rivers realizes. And to be honest with you, I'm sure he got plenty of clicks for mentioning it. But he probably realizes at this point that it's a reach. It's a fun discussion. It is a fun discussion. I agree. I enjoyed it too. You watched Antonio Gates all those years with the Chargers. I mean, he was not an NBA star or anything, but he's a basketball player. He had a great career in the NFL. So it brings up a great discussion not only with NBA players, Mike, but I think with other athletic sports. And yeah, the conversion can be made. I mean, you mentioned Gates. Obviously, Tony Gonzalez. But remember the offensive lineman from the Steelers? Hasselrig. He was a wrestler, Carlton, Carlton Hasselrig. Yeah, guys like that. I know we had a linebacker in Seattle. It played for a few years. That was the off guard to Quentin Daly at University of San Francisco. Kenny McAllister, and he played outside linebacker for us. But he was like 6'4 or 6'5

and struggled with the things that I mentioned about bending and doing some different things to play with leverage. That really is a different level. Leverage is really the, you know, the essence of football at the point of attack. And they struggled a little bit with that. If you can't rebound and that, you know what it takes for smaller guys to rebound. They've got to get under and under people's pad, so to speak,

and use leverage. And that's the hardest thing to duplicate. And if you can't do that in basketball, you surely can't effectively move people or win at the point of attack in football. Yeah. Yeah. Interesting stuff. Good.

Well, let's talk about some real football. before we got some fun stuff to talk about come out of the draft, but I thought one fun exercise would be just off the top, Randy. How about one guy per round that was interesting to you as a GM? And obviously you broke down the tape on a lot of these guys, most of these guys probably. So I thought that might be a fun exercise just to, you know, we're whatever week and a half later, a couple weeks out. Yeah, there's a few guys that definitely surprised me, one, where they got picked, but two, that for different reasons. Maybe it's as much as identifying different characteristics, but that kind of stuck with me after the draft. And I'll pick a guy in the second, third, fourth, fifth

round, somewhere in there. In round two for me, the Jalen Polk kid, the receiver from Washington that the Patriots drafted, I love the pick. And so this is more about my favorite picks of anything else. Yeah. I think the Patriots, I don't think the Patriots are going to be a really good team. And I think they need a little bit of a cultural toughness, a little bit of, what Jalen Polk is all about. Now, I know the kid and have watched him a lot because, you know, living in Seattle, you see a lot of the Huskies. That to me was a cool pick because I think he brings with him a little bit at that position

that, one, the Patriots lack, and two, that position lacks at the NFL level. Now, the struggle I have in connecting him with having great production is I don't think their offense is going to be very good, and I think they're going to struggle. But I like the pick, and I think in the long run, Jalen Polk will be a really good. good player for the Patriots. And to get that kind of quality where they did, I think it was like mid-second round, I thought that was pretty good. What is he exactly going to bring? Does he remind of anybody? He reminds me, and you'll recognize this name of a Brian Blades, who we had in Seattle in the 80s and in the 90s. He is, I often use this. He's a professional receiver already,

Polkis. He's going to run all the routes. He's going to run with details beyond most college kids, with details of playing the position. He's kind of already a professional. I think they did a really good job at developing players, especially offensively at UW and as evidenced by a bunch of them that got drafted this year. But he has some of that. And so I think he's more, he plays like a veteran receiver already. So I don't think he's slow, but he's not fifth gear fast.

And so I think he's going to fit in the middle in there somewhere with, with he'll be a hard guy to cover only because he's going to catch everything. And covering him is one thing, but doing something about it's another thing. So he catches the ball when covered really good, which I think sometimes is a skill set that doesn't get enough a run at the NFL level. In the third round, a guy that jumped out at me was a safety that the Houston Texans drafted from USC, Kalen Bullock. And I liked him because I'm not, as you know, really for,

draft and safeties, especially not high. But in the third round, they were able to acquire this kid for me. The comp for him was, if we're going to stay on the comp train, is Xavier McKinney, who was with the Giants, who ended up signing with the Packers this year in Free Agency. He's a little bit of a tweener in that he can be a really effective free safety because he can run, but he can also come up and match with length as a third corner. if you ever get stranded on the field with regular personnel and the other team ends up with three wide outs and you got to go match.

He'll match a guy in the slot and be able to run with them a little bit. So I like the versatility he has. And to get a guy that I think could probably fit for a lot of teams as a corner, but maybe playing free safety with that kind of speed and athleticism, you normally would have to draft those guys, in my opinion, higher, especially this year because I didn't think there was a bunch of safeties that could run and keep up athletically. But this kid can. And the fact that they were able to get him in the third round was, I think, a pretty good pick. In the fourth round for me, and you know how I am with guys with speed, right? The dolphins drafted a running back who I really

liked in the process from Tennessee, Jalen Wright, and they were able to draft him in the fourth round. We know what the dolphins look for. We know their criteria, speed and explosiveness that I think that has been evident in every acquisition they've made no matter position the last couple years. For me in my prior life, running an NFL team, this would have been the kind of back that I would have served to say, hey, let's get this guy. This is an Ammon Green. This is a Deuce McAllister. This is a guy that, in my opinion, can put his foot in the ground and run a zone off tackle play, whether it's a man zone or a zone zone-blocking scheme doesn't really matter. This guy's going to hit it, and it could be a touchdown. He might be hitting his head on the goal pole,

shortly thereafter. And so he was a fun guy for me to watch. And the fact that he lasted until the fourth round and then goes to a team like the dolphins who are already loaded with speed and explosiveness. That was my favorite pick in the fourth round. So that was an easy one for me. And they gave up a third rounder next year to do that, which is a little interesting because supposedly next year's draft is supposed to be better than this one, least to that part of the depth. You okay with that? No big deal. Give up a third. I don't want to do that based on the lack of depth in this draft, like you said. compared to where people are projecting next year to be. But here's the thing.

Fast guys get drafted fast. And the fact that they did that, Mike, what's that tell you? Where do you think he was on their board? Probably late first, early second. Yeah, you would only do that if you had this guy rated way high on your board. And I have no evidence of any of that. But I know this, and having made a bunch of trades in my time, I wouldn't do it unless I had the guy,

unless there was a neon sign flashing on his card on your board. at like I said late first, early second, which frankly is kind of where I saw him, to be honest with you. And then after that, four of the next nine picks for running backs, by the way, after they did that. So maybe they felt like, hey, we got to get in there because we know these other teams are going to take backs. That's our guy. Our head coach wants them. Let's get them. Yeah.

And away we go. I loved it. It was my favorite pick of that round. Although I wouldn't recommend giving away next year's picks, but I understand why they did it. So it made sense for me. And then I had one favorite pick in that. fifth round. This kid was actually, I thought, higher rated in the process, but slipped to the fifth round. Jacob Monk, a center from Duke, who I think as undervalued of an interior offensive

alignment as there was in the draft. And the reason I liked him, and I've drafted a few centers in my time that have kind of had similar characteristics and all ended up having long careers or being really good NFL players, this guy has some of that. His ability to give him, get from his footwork of snapping the ball onto his target was really efficient. There's no wasted motion. He's a quick thinker, I can tell, because of this. He already plays with a high level of technique. I think his game's going to adapt well at the NFL level. And being from Duke, I know he's a sharp kid, so I think the intangibles everybody has said about him are really good. And the Packers got him in the fifth round. And I wouldn't doubt that this guy maybe starts at

guard plays there for a year or two, but eventually is their long-term center, not that they really need one, because I think they have a really good center right now, but this is a good option for them. And when you could get a guy like this in the fifth round, I don't think you can go wrong. Yeah, absolutely. Interesting. And you do like, we talked about this a little bit off air. When you get a center playing a guard a little bit early in his career, right? Get them accustomed to the speed of the game because it goes faster at center. I think it really goes fast for young guys, especially. An example I would use for that is in Denver, a few years ago, they drafted a center, Lloyd Cushenberry, who ended up signing with the Titans this year in the offseason.

He really struggled, in my opinion, his first couple years because he came in as a center, he went to center and became a starter as a rookie. And it was like, in my opinion, he was sitting on the dock of the bay and the Autobahn was flying by him. He had no idea how fast things were going. And it took him a couple years before, like you said, the speed of the game, he could catch up to it just from a mental standpoint, from connecting the dots. it also shows to me that these centers, they have to learn the communication. Most teams rely on them to make line calls. They make adjustments at the line of scrimmage.

And if you can do that as a guard and actually have the instructions bark to you so your thinking load is a little less, I think it helps you then become a center because you also have seen it from the guard's point of view. And I think it's a natural progression. And I think we talked about this. I've drafted three centers that I can remember. high in the first or second round in my stints in New Orleans, in Miami, and in Seattle. And every one of those guys played guard their first year.

And I think became really all pro type centers in years three and four because of that first year being able to play guard and see things at a little different rate of speed. Kevin Mawai was one of those Hall of Famer, right? He was. LaCharles Bentley was another one in Orleans whose crew was. Yeah, Bentley was cut short because of injury. and then Samson Satelli in Miami, I think I totaled one time.

Those three guys totaled over 400 starts in the NFL. So there's a lot of ball played by those guys, but they all three had the same path to becoming the starting center in that they played guard first. Yeah, yeah, helping to kind of ease their transition into the league. Okay, we're going to talk a little bit about the bills here. We're going to talk about the receiver position too, but I'm kind of going to get into it from a little bit of a different angle.

It'll be draft related. Today, one of the things I did, Randy, I think I shared the file with you. Once we got all the draft picks in and had them in like a little bit of a spreadsheet, I like to go through and kind of color categorize the positions of the players based on the value of those positions, meaning what their salaries command in the NFL. And then you can kind of get a little bit of a little bit of a, a little bit of a rainbow on your screen to see where the premium and non-premium players went.

What I noticed was before I kind of reveal what that spectrum looks like, I believe 41 of the first 43 players drafted this year were at quote unquote premium positions. And what I would say those positions are, are either quarterback, which is obvious, $51 million a year average for the top five guys, or receiving. receiver, edge rusher, defensive tackle, which is the top five at those positions averaging 27 and 29 million per year in the NFL veterans. And then the third group would be tackles and corners, which are 20 to 22 million on the average of the top five. Those are sort of the premium positions. The other positions that don't cost as much, safety, linebacker, interior office of line, tight-end running backs.

And obviously special teams if you're getting a kicker or a punter. but 41 of the first 43 players going to those premium positions, the only exceptions I believe were Brock Bowers, who went to the tight end, went to the Raiders, and then Graham Barton, who went to Tampa Bay also later in the first round. So I thought that was interesting.

We can talk about those guys if we want at some point as we go along, but it gets me, it kind of goes full circle back to the receiver position, which is obviously in that premium. category for all the money that's going on there. And so as we looked, we saw some of these teams end of the first round, some of the better teams, drafting wide receivers. I thought the bills were really interesting.

Tons of focus from everyone about where do they enable the chiefs to pick Xavier Worthy when they traded with them. Just kind of feel like, forget about that. What the bills did, what they're doing is sort of about them and may be instructive for the rest of us. You know, understand not only what they're doing from a team building standpoint, but what's going on at this position. Some thoughts here.

Let's pull this all together. Yeah. Randy, what do you think? Help me out. Well, I think they're all valid points, and I'll jump into the bills in a second, but I would just comment on your positional picks chart and some of the theories that you're using here. And I totally agree with them. And I'm a little less technical than you.

I know that I'll shock people out there. But I think your graph shows that drafting big guys and fast guys is a pretty good philosophy that has withstood time, right? Because that's what this chart that you showed, I know people can't see it as listeners, but that you and I can reference is it shows me that big guys, fast guys, still are premium positions. And the other APY numbers that you gave also tell me that these are positions that are affected mostly in the passing game, which is what everybody has really become nowadays in a seven-on-seven league. these are the positions that affect your passing game and the ones that team builders really want to

affect through the draft. I think what it also tells me about the draft is the draft really, and it's been this way for a while, it's no longer just evaluating prospects and lining them up how you like them. That is not what the draft has become, in my opinion. It has become a team building mechanism where you have a lot of other elements, including the positional specific values. that you have to incorporate with your draft board. In the olden days, before the money was crazy, you could afford to just evaluate and line them up how you see them and put them in that sequencing of grades per se.

You really can do that to a point, but within your grading groupings, you have to now stack your board based on that positional criteria and the technical research part that you, that cap guys, that other people can bring to the table from an analytic standpoint. And that is a true factor now in team building. So I think those, I'm really just saying the same thing that your numbers tell us. And I'm in agreement with that.

And that does take us to what the bills have done. And in specific, I think if we go back to the end of last season, we might have talked about it here on the podcast, we said the bills probably were going to have some tough decisions to make. This team as constructed last year probably wasn't, good enough to go further than they did. And guess what? The bills have kind of said the same thing. Their decision-making group, whether it's Sean McDermott or Brandon Bean, they've said the same thing in that we knew we had to reevaluate our own team. And I give them credit for having, let's say it,

for having the balls to do it. They've made some tough decisions along the way. They've let veteran leaders walk away. They've traded what at some point that Stefan Diggs's of the world that were really explosive players for a long time, they've made the sacrifice to kind of move on from some of these pillars that have carried them up until last year or toward the end of last year over the last five, six years. So I think that all adds to the point of kind of specifically filtering down and leading us to talking about receivers, team building in that receiver room, and like you said, maybe it's a blueprint going forward. Well, yeah. I subtracting, Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis.

Okay, those two players right now, I believe, are about 37 million in combined average per year. That's a lot. And they've put onto their roster, Curtis Samuel, Chase Claypool, Matt Collins, they draft Keon Coleman. If I add up the totals for those players, you're 10, 12, 13, 14 million down from 37 a year. So that's definitely a big shift. But I think there's some other components to this too and just sort of the,

did you see how, how. happy and energetic and what a personality Keon Coleman was in the post-draft stuff, the interviews. I mean, he was funny. He was fun. I just think they've, it's been hard there in Buffalo. You know, it's just been, it just hasn't been as fun as it should have been for as many games as they've won. I just couldn't help but see that taking place here too. This isn't just a money reset or a premium position reset. This is an emotion, this feels like an emotional reset too. And, you know, that probably doesn't show up on this spreadsheet, but it did to me just watching this whole thing unfold. Well, and I agree.

And we're not here to point fingers. But I think a lot of that is just the personality of their leader, right, of Sean McDermott and the way he comes across day after day after day. And I have much respect for the discipline that he seems to have within his own job and his own ranks and the people around him. But it does need to be fun. It does need to be somewhat engaging for everybody to want to show up there. We saw some of that as BS as it might have been in that dynasty documentary about how hard it was to play for Bill Belichick over the years. It wasn't for everybody. And so I kind of sense, and I think that's what you're saying, is the bills are a little bit like that.

And they needed a little bit of an interveness of fun, you know. And maybe they've done that. I mean, when you let Gabe Davis walk, you let Stefan Diggs, you trade him. him. You add Curtis Samuel. You add, although he's not the same, a clay pool to the receiver room. They have added some guys that I think are going to make a difference. And this Keyon Coleman kid is maybe the intangible part, the young youth, exuberant personality that you're mentioned. And he'll go a long ways toward that too. I thought it was great that they went out of their way. They is in Brandon Bean, because he's the one that talked about it, to allow and have input from Josh Allen,

the quarterback. He apparently looked at a lot of film. He did a lot of research. And I think it's a genius move on Brandon Bean's part to include your quarterback in this discussion. Because guess whose name is also on this pick now? And who's going to really go out of his way to make sure Keon Coleman is one developed, but too ready. And he's going to be his mentor. And that has evident that it's almost like an assistant coach or any of the guys in the building. If they feel like they are tied to a pick, they're going to do everything they can to make sure that pick works out. And so it is a consensus building tool or part of it that I think Brandon Bean is using to reconstruct this roster. I don't know if that makes sense, Mike, but it does to me that Josh Allen will buy

in now on anything, anywhere, and it starts with that receiver. Another part of this, Randy, is just the idea of the price is going up so high on the wide receivers. And I know we've talked about, you know, I think you've said as an evaluator, you think you can find them. Can you elaborate on that? And what would you be doing right now in the light of this market where we just saw Devontas Smith? You can talk about the structure of the deal or whatever, but I think he's at $32 million a year or something. Nothing against him. But I mean, that's a, these numbers are getting up there quick.

Yeah, no doubt. And a couple things come to, and I totally agree. And it's part of the reason why 35 receivers got drafted this year. 35. The most only cornerback had 36. So these are getting back to the fast guys, but 35 receivers got drafted. And I think part of the reason why so many guys did get drafted is as a GM, as a team builder, you get to a level of pay, especially outside the quarterback that these receivers are getting now. And Justin Jefferson's going to break the bank on all these guys because I think he's better than anybody so far. And he's going to hit a new. payload here any day now. I think these numbers force you as a guy who signs checks to choke a little bit. These are giant numbers for a position that is dependent on several other things happening, including offensive line, including the quarterback. And so I think what it does is because you're going to have to pay $30 million, it makes you look for options. And so you're scrambling to find

options as a GM now, whether it's drafting one like $30,000. just did or signing these mid-level guys who, for whatever reason, their skill set doesn't fit where they're at and you think it can be developed better in your scheme. But you're out looking for these options now. And you mentioned it. As an evaluator, I think receivers for me has always been one of the easier positions to evaluate because I think it's easy to see the nuances that make these guys successful and to identify it. And hey, if I had a sideline, I'd love to just sign, evaluate receivers and rank them every year as part of a process. And I think we would be pretty close to the ones that end up playing. I just think the receivers, their skill sets are

identifiable and their weaknesses for me have reasoning behind them. So I think the receiver position as a whole is going to undergo a lot of therapy over the next, really it already has, but over the next couple months, when we see these receivers like I'm on St. Brown at Detroit. That's who I meant. Yeah, I meant him not Devonty Smith getting the 32, the 33 or whatever, any 30. And Devante got great money too, but there's most NFL evaluators. Yeah, most the NFL evaluators would swap those two because St. Brown is more of a slot, more of a third, more of a second, you know, as a value type guy.

And he got paid over 30 million a year. So I just think that's going to send a lot of GMs looking for other options. Yeah, interesting. Well, we saw a couple of those other options before we move. on to a couple other draft things we want to hit on these quarterbacks too but obj to the dolphins was one i said i said i thought of boyd went to the titans as well but it's probably a good chance for us to touch on those i know you've been really high on obj it's funny it seems like when obj for a long time he was you know people thought he was better than he was and now i think people don't think

he's as good as he really is right yeah definitely the perception hasn't mirrored in my mind his career, that's for sure. Yeah. I think it's a great get for the dolphins. Going with what they have, whether it's Tyreek or Waddle as their starting receivers and then throwing OBJ in the mix, I think last year for him really was a productive year and people say, how can you say that? He only had 35 catches. I think it mirrored the opportunities that he had with the Ravens in a system that is somewhat paint by numbers from a passing game standpoint. And I think he has more in his tank. I got news for you. The Dolphins, their criteria for adding skilled position players, maybe it's because, you know, we see things alike, but I like what they're doing because I still think OBJ can run. I think he can separate. I think he can shift gears when he's being run with to find a fifth gear to free himself up. And we all know he can catch. So I just don't see the downside other than maybe you can't count on a guy that's 30 being healthy, you know, for a full 17 games. But I I think it's a good get. I really do. I think the dolphins made a nice signing. And that'll go against,

I think, most of the NFL analysts out there. They probably see that as a perception sign only. But I think there's some basis behind it. And I'm not sure that a 35, 40 catch year isn't exactly what the dolphins need from their third receiver. I think it's a pretty good goal. It's great for him to not have the role where he has to do too much. He's just a great person to have in that in the role that he's going to be in. Right. I mean, he can totally do that. You're worried about dosage or usage. Yeah. All right. Quarterback fits.

Randy, can you believe six quarterbacks in the first 12 picks of the job? I mean, wow. Well, it just shows you everybody, well, not everybody. A lot of teams are willing to take swings because they know how important the position is. And the thinking is if we don't have one, we have no chance. So that's what I would assume they're seeing and thinking. and maybe these six guys will all turn out to be great players. I seriously doubt it, but I do think it just goes to show you can justify this by saying,

hey, we need a quarterback. Let's pick them whenever. Okay, so we've done that. And I just want to talk more about how optimistic we are. We've evaluated, we talked about these guys before the draft, but we've got six of these guys. We've got Caleb Williams to Chicago with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. We've got Jaden Daniels to Washington with offensive coordinator, Cliff King. Kingsbury. Drake made of New England, offensive coordinator, Alex Van Pelt, Michael Penix

to Atlanta with offensive coordinator, Zach Robinson. And I think they have another quarterback there that they signed this offseason. We have JJ McCarthy in Minnesota with, let's just say, head coach and play caller Kevin O'Connell, and Bo, Nick to Denver with head coach, play caller, Sean Payton. Where do you want to begin? Do you want to go through them one by one or do you want to find the ones that you single out a couple? I would just say this, and just gathering the information that you gave our listeners, I'm not sure that quarterbacks five and six aren't set up the best because those are the two offenses, the two play callers, and the two schemes that I have the most faith in and that we have the most history of being successful. So that does tell me a lot. And so I

wouldn't be shocked if McCarthy over the next two or three years becomes good fast and maybe the same for Bo Nix because he's with Sean Payton and his system. I just have more faith in what's going to be put around these two guys and their development, then maybe the four guys above it. And it's, it's basically based on the offense and the coordinators and who has skins on the wall and we've seen it. This is just new information for me, right? They're set up to succeed at different levels. And now the baton, in my opinion, since they were acquired, has now been passed on to the system, to the OCs, and that's where really the pressure lies, in my opinion. They're the ones charged with developing these guys from here on out.

I told you, you know, that Bo Nexler's going to go on the top 15, you probably would have gone, but now he put him with Sean Payton. We're like, ooh, I'm kind of with you. Oh, Sean Payton, not a bad fit for that system. Maybe the bar was pretty low there. He was able to make the numbers look decent for Russell Wilson, even though he was obviously not happy with how they were running the offense. So it was interesting. I was asked on a different show today to kind of look through the Vegas win totals of teams that look too low or too high.

I think they had Denver like five and a half wins or something. I thought, geez, I'll take the over on Sean Payton any day on that. I don't know what to expect from Bo Nix as a rookie, but maybe that's a tall order. Maybe he doesn't even start right away. But it sounds like that. You think that's one that could work. Yeah, no doubt I would take the over there as well. And I think in the case of Bo Nix, we all saw the flashes of what he might be able to do.

It just wasn't consistent enough for my, for my blood. But I understand what Sean Payton saw. And I think he has unparalleled confidence in himself to get that part of Bo Nix's game out and to be more consistent with it. So, yeah, I do think that Bo Nix stands a chance to have a successful career, especially with Sean Payton. The other one is McCarthy. I think he was a little bit similar in that his skill set was a little hard. to define. But I think McConnell saw it. I think all of that system is going to help J.J. McCarthy. And so those two to me are the similar cats in this group. I want to ask you, though,

about that Viking system because I always hear this about, you know, hey, that's a quarterback for any place. But let's play a little devil's advocate here and say, okay, but O'Connell had Kirk Cousins finished product, someone who's played good football for a better part of 10 years, was definitely with the Rams when they, you know, had not only McVeigh, but, you know, Matthew Stafford's there for some of that. So what's your confidence level in being able to develop a young quarterback or do you just are so impressed with what they do offensively system-wise that you think that is really going to be the key? Well, I think for development of young quarterbacks, for me, the position and developing them is all about giving them answers. And so I've seen enough

answers out of McConnell, O'Connell, and Sean, that I know those guys' system will give those quarterbacks answers to the tests. And a lot of NFL places I couldn't say that about. I also say this about J.J. McCarthy. Way more, in my opinion, physical, natural talent than Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins, for me, is a man-made production of hard work, of discipline technique, of maximizing every bit of God-given talent he has. I think McCarthy has more talent, and I think he has upside that the Vikings obviously see. Maybe we see it, or O'Connell, myself,

some other people see more in him than the average evaluator of players. But I think there's really a lot of upside with McCarthy, and I love the fact that his offense supplies answers. And when I say answers, it's just sometimes about it's the scheme, it's the play call, but it's the amount of options that quarterback has within a certain play call.

And if this, then this, but this, there's a whole bunch of steps that evolve into playing the position. And I think that system gives quarterbacks, again, the answers to the test ahead of time. And if you can get deep into that story problem in a matter of five or six seconds in any one play, I think you stand a really good chance to solving the problem at the end of it, which is a productive play from your quarterback position. All right. We can't talk about these guys, Randy, without talking about the decision. Okay. You know, we're going to be in an election year here, so you're going to see the decision on, you know, all over the place as it pertains to like, you know, elections and a and voting.

But we're talking about the decision. The big decision, the Falcon's decision, the Falcon's decision to draft Michael Pennix Jr. with the eighth pick a few weeks after giving a whole bunch of money to Kirk Cousins, who was not happy about this. I think Kirk Cousins thought he was leaving Minnesota because the Vikings wanted to draft his successor early. Let's go somewhere where they're going to pay me a lot of money. I don't have to worry about that because we've got a team that's ready to win now. We've got a top 10 pick.

We'll draft somebody for the defense. And we will go win the NFC South. And instead a U-turn is pulled after the ink has dropped. in the Kirk Cousins contract, they draft Michael Penix, Jr., Randy. After the draft, I must have talked to 15 people in the league trying to find anybody who thought it was a good move. Even if you liked Michael Penix, every person I talked to did not understand the Falcons were doing.

And then I finally found one person who thought it was okay. It was Bill Pullian, of all people. He had me on his serious show Wednesday, and he made the case said, Hey, Cousins is older, only has a couple of years left. Rookie wage scale makes a guy like Michael Pennick's more affordable. He'll be ready to go in a couple years. You get it both ways. You move on.

It doesn't have to be this catastrophic error in judgment. I'm not doing it nearly as good of a job as Bill. I disagree with Bill, so I'm giving a bad view. I'm giving a weak rendition of his argument to make mine look better, wink, wink. But is there any way you could see this be? a good process. Well, first off, I would say that Bill's description of it sounds like he may have talked to Rich McKay, because that is the one thing that they could hang their hat on. Rich McKay being the president of the Falcons. So I'm not really buying that approach. I get the

long-term best for the team. Best time to get a quarterback is when you're not looking for one. People have said this for years. Where I would struggle with it and Why none of it really, for me, is enough to move the needle to saying, oh, yeah, I get it what the Falcons are doing. Because I don't know that he's doing the rest of the team any type of a service. And when I mean the rest of the team, the locker room, that's a struggle for me. Those guys want to win now. They want to win in the next two or three years. That's, hey, we, I always judge my job by how I think the players would see it as well.

I think you'll have a hard time Terry Fontno going in the locker room and getting a lot of hugs and kisses from the other guys on that team. This is a team that lacked some other things. They just paid Cousins 100 million guaranteed and now we're doubling down on that. That part, hey, Michael Penix was a good player in December. You knew he would be available at 8 when this whole process started. So you could make the case that if you were going to pick him at 8, why would we give Kirk Cousins the 100? million. And here's, oh, by the way, who are they bidding against to pay Kirk Cousins $100 million? That's a whole other topic. But I just think that's a hard one. It's a hard sell for me to accept.

And this has nothing to do with Michael Pennix because I happen to think Michael Pennix of all these guys might be the most ready. He's the guy that I loved watch and throw day after day. And I could watch it and pay to watch it every day. So he's a seasoned NFL dropback passer that I really like. But I just struggled. with we could have had this or this or that for our team, which would have made us better these next couple years. And I know they said we don't plan on being up here to pick again. Well, you might need to just identify one at a later stage in the first round. And I don't know that you have to draft a quarterback in the top 10 to get one.

Okay? I just think they also are, they've swung and missed at quarterback two or three times just in the last three years. So we know that they aren't confident in selecting quarterbacks. And maybe that's how they ended up with both cousins and Pinnock's, because they just threw common sense to the wind and paid Cousins $100 million guaranteed it and now drafted another one. So they're doubling down on a 24-year-old guy in Pinnockes that if they want to sit for a couple more years,

he might be 26, 27 before he ever plays. I'm with you. Why not go have a good season with Cousins and then be picking 26th or 24th next year, hopefully and find a guy there. And draft the best past rush. Exactly. So like I was thinking about this. Think of these couple team comparison.

Like Seattle acquired Sam Howell and then drafted a guy with a defensive tackle to help their defensive line. You could have, if you were Atlanta, you could have, whatever, signed Russell Wilson or just somebody, some veteran guy or Minchu or, you know, gotten howl or just somebody who started before been decent. think you like your ability to win some games with them and save a ton of money and still draft pennics if you want to do that. You know, you could have gone that route, but to do both just seem like complete overkill to me. Well, especially when you really break it down. And Zach Robinson is their offensive coordinator who came from the Rams. And Sam Darnold, who we all know went to Minnesota to run a similar style offense, would they have been better off paying Sam Darnold 10 million and then in draft and pennics,

then we could have made the same type of sense that we make with what the Vikings have done now with McCarthy and Sam Donald. So I guess, you know, time will tell, but it's a hard leap of faith for me to make that says, oh, I get it now, the Falcons did right. I feel like because of their angst, their organizational angst of the quarterback position,

and remember, they're coming out of this whole weird thing with Belichick and going after them and not getting them. I feel like from an ownership level, there was a level of angst there that they had to fix the quarterback. So you know what? What does it cost to do, Kirk? We just got to fix this thing. 100 million, 180 million, four years.

We got it. Okay, we got Kirk done. Oh, it's out of this desperation. And then you do your evaluations and your stuff, and you're like, oh, we really like this panics, too. And I know they were trying to trade back up into the first round. They wanted to have it both ways. They wanted to come back up in the first round and get a defensive player, too.

And so it ended up just kind of looking a little desperate to me at the quarterback position, the whole off season. So there is that. And it's happened to them at that position for three or four years, Mike. They've swung and missed on a bunch of ideas, and their plan has never been one that had any footing, whether it was their failed interest in Deshawn Watson, which cost them Matt Ryan,

which then spawned off the drafting of the Cincinnati kid, who they anointed as the starter, and he wasn't good enough, and he's now in Arizona. It's been one thing after another for the Falcons quarterback. Yeah. All right. Before we get to the fabled GM notebook, Randy's been working on it night and day, round the clock. I had to just take note.

I perked up during this draft because of what the Raven said. They picked the all-Muller team. One of the really cool things, Randy, when we went to the combine, was just how many people we ran into in the league that listened to the podcast. We didn't, those people, I didn't talk to Steve Boshaddy or Eric Dacost or John Harba about the podcast, but it sounds like they would, they're either listening to borrow your rankings, which, you know, let's face it, they probably have their own rankings. Or, maybe, they probably do. Or though you've seen some things similarly here.

I had to laugh because a few years ago when you had Isaiah likely as the top tight end in the draft, which was kind of, I don't know that anybody else did, they ended up picking. him in the fourth round and then we thought, ooh, but this time they got three of your guys, one of them okay. They take Nate Wiggins in the first round. A lot of people like Nate Wiggins. He was up there. So my radar didn't really go. They come back and get Roger Rosengarden from Washington in the second round and I know you were the only guy ever saw anywhere that had him among the top five tackles in this draft. You sort of stumbled across him when you were looking at other Washington guys. He said, geez, I want this guy. And then am I mischaracterizing

that? Oh, I mischaracterizing that? A stumbling drunk could find anything. Is that what you're saying? No. No, I didn't say that at all. You were not intending to evaluate him, but you were watching other players on Washington. You said, hey, wait a minute. This guy right tackle is somebody I want to have on my list. So the Ravens take him in the second round. Then they come back in the fourth round with T.J. Tampa, a corner. And RGM had him in his top five corners from the draft. I think you had him third. He was the 16th corner drafted. So I thought that was really interesting that they saw things similar to the way you did. And of those players, I guess T.J. Tampa, Randy, what the heck happened? I kept waiting for him to be picked and picked and picked and it didn't happen.

Do they get a real steel here? Does that not exist or what? Well, I think they're all, Steeles always exist. Obviously, we're making a lot of fun about this, and I surely can't take credit for any of it. I'm just saying that there's different criteria that teams use to evaluate who's best for them. And maybe it's just the criteria that I like and have used over the years is similar to the criteria that the Ravens like at certain positions. And you mentioned a few of them. I think to that end, these corners are different. Higgins is different than Tampa. I think their skill set, though, depending on where they're going to align them, really

fits with kind of that length that corner, the guys who can run and play press. A lot of different skill sets factor into just being a man-to-man team or a zone team. And so their criteria just seems to fit with what I'm looking for. And so, yeah, I think it's obviously mere coincidence that they all ended up there. but that is a few guys over the last few years that the Ravens have drafted that we've thought highly of for sure. I appreciate you pointing that out, Mike. I did. I thought it was pretty cool.

I just noticed right away. Whatever we do the pre-draft rankings, I keep them off the side. When the draft unfolds, I'm thinking, okay, this is the guy Randy liked and why. And I like to sort of keep that going over the years of. And really what's good about that too is, hey, what is it that you like? What is it that you like about these players? I think that becomes really interesting. and we see, hey, that's like you always say,

there's different flavors for everybody. It doesn't mean that it's always right or wrong, but that certainly caught my attention. What do we got in the GM notebook this week, Randy? Well, we kind of pilfered a little bit, so we got into those favorite draft picks. That was going to be one of them, and we started to show me that.

I didn't know it was down here at the bottom. I played it the first number one thing. Okay, so, hey, everybody. We're in a manufacturer GM notebook. I know there's another, I know. I'll come back. You go ahead. I'll have another GM notebook for you.

You go ahead. I'll ask you something. The one thing that came to my mind is that the time of year we see now, teams have entered into their rookie mini camps. And the way it works for our listeners is I would say maybe a half to two thirds of the teams have their rookie minicamp had say last weekend. And the other third or, and I'm guessing at the numbers, the other third or maybe it's a little more than that, have their rookie mini camps this kind of.

coming week. And part of these rookie mini camps are when you construct the bodies that you're going to be coaching and they're involved in this, it also includes people there on a tryout basis. And the way it works is the league allows you to have rookies who haven't signed yet, weren't drafted, obviously, and then unsigned, drafted, undrafted college kids, they can go on a three-day trial at these rookie camps and actually play and participate and work out with these guys. And so it is a competitive field of guys, this is at another level of below the undrafted college free agents that didn't get signed and now teams are competing with those guys. And my only point was in that if I had a choice to have my rookie minicamp, which includes these guys on tryout basis,

first or second, I obviously would like to go first because I think you have a sooner chance to maybe find a true ruby, a diamond in the rough that your scouts maybe just didn't get to see and you would have a chance to then sign them to a contract during that first window of minicamps that happened last weekend. The rest of these camps are happening this weekend. And I know teams that are the second barrage of mini camps, they are waiting with their fingers crossed, hoping a few of these tryout guys who they had a little love for make it through that first weekend to then come to their rookie mini camp and practice with them for a couple days so their coaches can get their eyes on these guys in person as well. So I guess it's just a competitive field,

even at this level, when the draft is over, the undrafted college signings is over, and now it's based on these three-day tryout windows that the league is allowed. Now that's even competitive as well. Yep. That's super insidery GM stuff that I guarantee no one's paying attention to, but as a GM you perk up because that's part of putting your team together and having a little bit of a leg up. I got one at the other end of the spectrum for you. Bill Belichick really out there in the draft he saw him out there and it was fun

I mean he was on the McAfee Broadcasting and he was funny and telling stories and we saw him again on the Tom Brady Roast which probably should have been its own item on this thing because that was unbelievable a debacle and hilarious at the same time I like the

I loved it when they said that Brady he had congrats for winning the seven rings but he got an eighth ring when Giselle gave hers back to him That was just, these were just savage cracks on him. It was very funny to me. There were some savage comments on there, savage comments.

Savage comments out there. I mean, you know, it's the divorce and stuff's pretty fresh. I don't know. Would you want to be out there and your people talking about your family and stuff like that close and that high profile? And in those terms, it was unbelievable. It was unbelievable. Why would he agree to this? Why did Tom Brady agree to this?

That's what I want to know. Tell me why he would do this. May have money. Probably some money involved. Is he need money? No. Is he destitute? He needs some cash?

What? He probably had some fun with it. But yeah, it was something else. But Belichick in the draft, he's out there, you know, and he's very funny in this thing. I just was thinking about him, you know, maybe he just loves this stuff and gets away from football for a year. And this is kind of what he does. Do you think that, you know, has your opinion been affected in any way in terms of his marketability for teams next year? year or the likelihood of getting or becoming a head coach next year.

Do you think he'll be, did you think he'll be one? Do you think he'll be one? Because he's been pretty high profile in a little bit of a different light, kind of a fun light that we don't get to see him in normally. Well, it really wouldn't affect my feeling of him, but I didn't view him from a negative lens, to be honest with you. I do think he is now in the 10-month window of fixing the reputation, fixing the perception, fixing what is out there, whether it was through the Atlanta feedback or all of the above for not getting a job,

he's going to do what he has to do to change people's perception of him. So I think it's smart by him. I think any time he can be put in a casual setting, whether it's on McAfee's show or really anything, I think he's going to do it. And I think we will see a steady diet of it. And frankly, he is good at it. He can engage clearly. I think he has a sense of humor, and I've known him forever. He has a sense of humor. He does, and I just think he's sometimes perceived as being something that's maybe not for everybody day after day after day. But I think you'll see his reputation soften a little bit over the next 10 months, and he'll definitely be in the mix of these head jobs a year from now. I don't think his age is going to be a detriment at all. Yeah, it's just interesting. He seems really good at this

stuff, you know, and I wonder if he gets, he's going to do the Manning cast, I think next year too, right? maybe. Well, yeah, and likewise, I thought Nick was really good. Nick Saban was really good as well. And he made me feel like we were in the office and he was pointing his finger at me over the desk. He had a lot of great information that is, I hope people were able to see it and glean from it because this is a lot of great team building lessons by both these guys that that I think are valuable as any team builder nowadays in the NFL would love to have as part of the building of consensus, is for sure. Yeah.

That'll be interesting to see. I just, we're going to see a ton of them a lot more than we've seen of them and this side of them. And so he's going to be part of the conversation, right? He's not going to have to work through media sources to get it out there that, hey, he's going to be a candidate. He's going to be front and center. This whole time looks like he's having a great time doing it.

The viewers and people listening are learning a ton from them or enjoying it. So it seems like a win, win for everybody. And maybe it'll be a win for some team next year. if they decide to jump in with Belichick, at which point I think it would be very interesting to see what his staff would look like coming back. I think that would be one of the most interesting things. Certainly he's got Josh McDaniels sitting out there some other guys, but just be fun to watch. You got anything else for us today? No, I think Mr. GM has said his share today.

I apologize if I've been too long-winded. You've got to stop doing that, Randy. We want to hear the GM. We want to hear more. So we got this thing done in under an hour. I think we'll be back next week. So let's get back in a little bit of a rhythm and talk some more football this summer. Sounds good. Looking forward to it, Mike.

All right. Thanks, everybody for coming along. We'll talk to you next time. This was the Athletic Football Show's Football GM podcast.