The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Football GM: Colts-Broncos sloppy TNF, concerns about Russell Wilson, NFL one month checkpoint & more

Episode Date: October 7, 2022

Mike Sando and former GM Randy Mueller do their best to make sense of what happened on Thursday Night Football between the Broncos and Colts. They share their concerns for Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett before examining the big questions facing the Colts. Then, one month into the NFL season, Randy explains how GM’s are looking to improve their team and bolster rosters. Finally, they discuss the Patriots’ game management, the Steelers’ offense and more before diving into the games they are watching in Week 5. Follow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLFollow Randy on Twitter: @RandyMueller_Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube2:42-21:00 What’s going on Russell Wilson & Nathaniel Hackett?21:01-27:14 Colts questions remain despite win27:18-35:13 One month into the season, what can GM’s do to help their team35:14-47:29 GM’s Notebook (Patriots, Chiefs, Steelers, teams looking for QBs in 2023)47:32-1:01:11 Games of interest in Week 5 1:01:15-1:08:53 Week 5 Picks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome everybody to the Football GM podcast. Mike Sandow here, senior writer from The Athletic, along with the GM, three-time GM, former executive year. Randy Mueller, Randy, we survived the Thursday night football game. We're both here. How are you feeling? Have you recovered? You got a hangover or what?

I'll tell you what, Mike. It was such a cool follow, even though we're going to probably agree that the quality wasn't Great. It was like watching a train wreck, right? And you knew it was coming. You just didn't know how it was going to end. I mean, I know we're going to get into this, but we've got Russell. We've got Hackett. We've got the Denver front office and the parts they've played in it. We've got new owners in Denver. And oh, yeah, by the way, we got Matt Ryan into Colts. So I'll be honest with you. I thought I was watching a 1987 strike game last night. That's what I thought. I mean, I thought the quality was about like the strike teams we built in the 80s. Well, at one point after the game, Matt Flynn tweeted, I could do that. Matt Flynn, remember, was the one who was signed by Seattle to be quarterback when they were sort of casting about 10 or 12 years ago looking for a guy and he ended up stumbling into, well, I'd give him more credit than stumbling into. They liked Russell Wilson.

They drafted him in the third round. No one else did. He stumbled into about 10 million, didn't he? Matt Flynn. Matt Flynn. Yeah. Yeah, it was a great for him out of the, like, that's what Twitter turned into last night. There was these gifts being delivered at various times unexpectedly.

Like, oh, whoa, what do we got here? It's Matt Flynn. He's watching this going, shoot, I could do what's going on in this game, which I believe that he probably could off the couch. There's no doubt. I mean, the quality was not good for the game, especially the shield, you know. Yeah, I know Tom Brady was just talking about it. And I thought, oh, you know, maybe this is more than just the Thursday night narrative.

But we're definitely going to get into that. It's really an autopsy at this point at week five for those two teams. So we're going to do that. We're going to, you know, one of Randy's great ideas this week, you know, as a GM, one of the things we'll get into is Randy, we get to this point in the season and kind of ask, how can we, how can I help my team? Because you sort of have a better feel for where you're at. So we're going to do that with a few of these teams. Got the GM notebook, we've always filled with good nuggets. We'll get into a few of the games.

And then we'll get into a few of the games again as we make our picks this week. and hopefully get some of them right. So you're ready to roll, buddy? Yeah, let's roll. Let's get into it. All right, Colts 12, Broncos 9. After the game, the fabled Elias Sports Bureau reported this was the first game in the history of the league. That's a lot of history now, the history of the league.

It's a lot of ball games. A hundred years, you know, where both quarterbacks passed for 250 yards while neither teams scored a touchdown. There had been seven games before that with no touchdowns of any kind where the opposing and quarterbacks through for at least 200 yards. And guess what? The last two involved Russell Wilson at quarterback. Is he broken, Randy?

Well, I think as we talked about a little bit before the show started, I think you and I maybe are two of the least surprised at what we saw and have seen through the first, I guess, five games now. I think I am surprised in that the depth of this fall is as low as it is. You know, we saw, you know, some of the stuff in Seattle last year and a half because we both lived there. There was some cracks in the armor. There were some things that you'd shake your head at and say, what are we doing? What is he doing?

There was also some explanations for it, too, a new offensive scheme, a new coordinator, maybe not the pieces around him that he had at one time. But I think what we saw last night was a guy that completely lost all his confidence. He clearly was not seeing the field. he clearly did not understand what they were doing, and it showed. And it was almost sad in a way it really was. Very sad. And I feel like when Russell Wilson was in Seattle, there were a lot of guardrails to hold on to when he was there.

So for the beginning part of his career, man, they were so good on defense. Everyone that you played against was worried about Marshaun Lynch. Right. And Pete Carroll wanted to play a little bit more of a run-heavy style, so they weren't making it all about Russ. But he was good. I mean, he's definitely a talent of player and he could create and he worked at it and all of that. Now, as his career went along, some of those elements around him fell off little. And I have to give Russell Wilson credit and the coaching staff their credit because he had some great years still, even when the defense was just, you know, it was fine, but it wasn't great.

Marshall Lynch wasn't there the whole time. But I do think there's been a, I think he's been exposed here. And to me, as I watch it, I don't mean exposed like he can't play. but they Denver bought the idea that this guy's like Aaron Rogers and those guys who you really can make it all about them and I think what we're seeing is a difference and one of the plays last night as we record this on Friday they really jumped out actually got a call from an offensive coordinator this morning on was like what are you doing going with a pure dropback play on fourth and one yeah and he's not a pure dropback quarterback Not that he can't have dropback elements in it, but you can't be a dropback passing team with him and be great. Would you agree?

100%. Never has been. Never been his strength. Yeah. So I feel like right now what they need is what they don't have, which is a head coach who has the ability to take their control and say, listen, we're not doing it your way. I'm not calling timeout to ask you what we should run. I'm not saying it's all about Russ and making Russ comfortable. Bull. We're not getting anywhere doing that. that we're going to run the ball and we're going to play action and you're going to like it. And we're going to win with our defense. And we're going to minimize you a little bit and get the best out of you that way. Is that what needs to happen here, Randy? Well, I think you're right. I think the thinking is correct. I don't think there's any way you can do that now because you've had a head coach who has acquiesced

every day since he got the job to whatever Russell wants. We're going to make it all about him. And you saw his explanation after the game last night. we're going to put this ball in our, you know, star quarterback's hands. Well, where was that four weeks ago in Seattle when they didn't, when they try to feel gold that, you know, a thousand yards, you know. I mean, it just doesn't make sense. So I think it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle. I think that that ship has sailed now.

And I don't know that Hackett is going to have the respect of the locker room if he doesn't about face pivot. Like, I agree with you, needs to happen. I just don't see that. So I think it's going to be. be a struggle. I think you've got Russell and his skill set and where it's at, then you've got Hackett's issues and where he's at there. And I always go back to this, Mike, with Nathaniel Hackett. He's two seats removed from any seat he's ever been in before. He was really the quarterback coach in Green Bay. He didn't call the plays. He didn't finalize the offense. As we know, that was all Matt LaFleur.

Now he's doing all of that in Denver. And oh, by the way, you've got to coach the rest of the team, too. I just feel like he's giving me the vibe that he's uncomfortable in this role. I mean, you see the interviews that he did like at halftime on TV. It just was uncomfortable. It's like his answers didn't even mean anything. It's like he's just robotic saying, we got to finish. We got to finish. What are you talking about?

We got to finish. How about some details as to actually what we need to do? He's speaking from 30,000 feet with it having no meaning. So I struggle with that. So I don't know how he gets it right. I thought another point that he made in his post-game press conference was, we got the okay to go for it on fourth and one. Who's he getting the okay from?

He's the head coach. For 100 years, the head coach has made that call every day of the week. And now he has to hear in his ear that it's okay to go for it. I just, I don't know. I just lost more confidence that this guy can make a difference. Absolutely.

You always talk about it. Can you make a difference on game day? Shoot, can you make a difference at all? I feel like he seems happy to have the job. Like, I can't believe this. Gosh, shucks. So that's Sierra in the front row. Unbelievable.

Wow. How cool. Right. No, no, no. Wait a minute. It just shows me again that the NFL, no matter if you're a head coach or a GM, is an impossible training ground. It really is. It's not an on-the-job training job.

These jobs are big. And if you're going to do that, I go back to my old saying, my buddy tells me since I was a kid, education is expensive. So we're educating a head coach on how to be a head coach. In the meantime, we're getting our ass kicked. And it's awful. And I'm losing my locker room. So just remember that education is, it's expensive. And teams pay the price when they hire inexperience. I get it. There's a lot of rising up-and-comers that are really brilliant. But it also depends on how you surround them and the decisions that are being made around them. Okay. So if you're them, they now have this weekend off and they don't play again until Monday night. By the way, they're on Monday night.

football against the chargers in the next game. So it's going to be another one that you can't stop watching probably. But if you were George Payton, the GM there right now, and we've got to change something. Something's got to change. I mean, people are wondering if the coach is going to make it. Quarterbacks and tatters. People are looking side-eye at the quarterback.

The receiver's throwing his helmet down in the game. I mean, there's a lot of people rushing to Russ's defense here from the Denver locker room or anywhere else, Richard Sherman pretty much going off the top ropes on the postgame show. 100%. Yeah, about 10 years of, I can't stand this guy. Yeah. He didn't leave anything to our imagination to connect dots, did he? Oh, my gosh.

No, we all knew some of this that he felt that way, but he's just going public with it. Yep. And so if you're in that chair of George Payton, what's your strategy now? Because something has to change. It doesn't seem sufficient to me, Randy, to be like, hey, okay, coach. Here's our talking. Here's our points for this week. No.

Can you make a bold move at this point? We've got trade deadline in the next month. We've got, you know, do you make a coaching change and just say we can't do this? What do you do? Here's the hard part for George. He has been five months now singing the praises of Nathaniel Hackett to the new owners. He has told them this is our guy. This is why we hired him.

He sold him hard. My guess is to the owners. You have to. That's your guy. Now, how do you do a pivot? How do you do, you know, what I told you for the last three months isn't really what it is. Paul Allen, you told me this years ago, I'll remember this forever. He said, Randy, I don't care what you tell me.

It just needs to be that way. It needs to be what you say it is. It needs to be what you say it is. I'm never going to say, you know, does that make any sense? Never going to tell you what to tell me. It just has to be that what you say. So if you say the punt returner, we're not going to use this kid to return puns because he's fumbled two last week. and you run him out there again to return punts next week,

I'm looking at you like, what do you, well, you just been telling me we're not going to use this guy. So that's my point. George has saying the praises of Nathaniel Hackett. He has told these owners, this is our guy.

Now he's got to say, whoa, we're going to pump the brakes. It's hard to do. It's really hard. So you do have to try to manipulate some things behind the scenes where I don't think George could ever make a change with the head coach at this point,

even if you do think he's out over his skis. So you're going to have to change some other things somehow, some way. I'm not sleeping if I'm George. I feel bad for George because if you put Nathaniel Hackett up there as one example, you put Russell Wilson up there as another example. We paid Russell Wilson $250 million and I don't think we can get out of this. We can't get out of this deal. We are stuck with this. So my gut is just wrenching. I'm on Tums 24-7. I used to be, we paid, when I was in New Orleans, we paid a receiver $2.5 million to get him from another team in free agency. and I knew three weeks after we got him, it was a bad decision.

Ooh, yeah. It was awful. It was an awful feeling. Now, that's $2 million. This is $250 million. So multiply it by $100, and that's how George feels. So do you think, remember when the offseason started and we didn't know yet how all these dominoes would fall? We didn't know for sure if Russell Wilson would be traded.

We probably would have guessed that maybe it wouldn't have happened right away. But all these things happened. When they hired Hackett, the first thing we thought was, well, they want to get, they have to get a quarterback. and they want Rogers. That's why that move made some sense, right? Not that you can't hire a first-time head coach whose two jobs removed from his last job. But to me, like, if they would have gotten Aaron Rogers

and this played a role in it, I think they'd be rolling right now because I think Aaron Rogers can manage the game. He can handle the dropback. He will, I would actually like to see what he would do on fourth and one. You know, I think he, you know, he would do better than Hackett would, just based on his job. experience and skills and all of that.

Do you think that that was realistically part of a reason why Hackett was hired to give yourself a better chance for that or no, you had to just absolutely love him as a coach? Well, I don't know the answer, Mike, but don't forget, George came from the Vikings. So they played against these guys twice a year for all his time in Minnesota.

So my guess is there was a relationship there. He had seen how he operated. And I think he probably gave him more credit than we all. think now for doing what Green Bay had done. I think we all know that it's probably Aaron Rogers. It's probably Matt LaFlewer. He's probably third removed, you know, from anything. And in fact, you know, Green Bay brought back Tom Clemens this year to kind of replace Nathaniel Hackett. And I don't think they've, you know, been on all cylinders, but they're, they've survived just fine. But at the same

time, look in Miami, you could have said, Mike McDaniel doesn't pass the test of look, you know, You would look at him. You wouldn't think this is your prototypical, what head coaches always looked like. Some guy was some silver in his hair and a little. Or if he's the young gun guy, that's hard to say that he was that because he wasn't calling the plays. I mean, it wasn't like he was the guy.

But he's gone in there to Miami. And look, I'm not anointing him and saying he can be a great head coach. But I think we've seen, go, this guy's affected some things on game day. There's an authenticity to him. He doesn't seem overwhelmed by it. The guys in the locker room seemed to rally around them. To this point, it's early.

but like his first impression has been excellent to me. I agree. Whereas I feel like, you know, Hackett has not been. And maybe some of that is, like you said, what they had to do to get Russell Wilson was to fully acquiesce. And remember the things we were hearing when he first got there? This guy's got three of his hangers on now have offices near the coaches. You know, all those things you had to, you had to sell your soul.

You sold your soul for somebody who's not Aaron Rogers. 100%. I totally agree. And I don't. There's a little bit of a back story here. Like when Peyton Manning went there, Peyton Manning didn't go for the big contract. Right.

He didn't. Now, he made it about him when he got there because we're going to practice the way I want to practice and we're going to do that. But he did it in the ways that move the needle on game day. That help your operation. Yep. He was coaching the team because he knew how to do it. And he said, no, no, we're going to do the protection this way. Yeah.

Adam Gace, this, that, but we're doing that. We're doing this, whatever. And he didn't take a huge deal. He actually took a pretty modest deal when he came in at the time. I don't think it was at the top of the market when he clearly could have tried to push it. Now, he was coming off an injury. They got Russell Wilson on all of Russell Wilson's terms all about him. They made it all about him. They talked him up like he was Rogers. And like you said, you can't put that back in the toothpaste tube. I just, I think the question for me is, did they do their homework on Russell Wilson? or that they just want to win the press conference. We know how many times the Broncos have swung and missed at quarterback since Peyton Manning. It's numerous, and they've missed. They've had egg on their face.

Now here's a chance to get a named guy who, quote, everybody thinks is really good. I wonder how much film they looked at. I wonder how much they dug in to all the things that we knew about questioning the authenticity, the style, the leadership, the relationship in the locker room with his teammates. somebody said this on the worldwide leader I heard in the last couple of days is you can't have an all-team meeting when you're not part of the team. And that's just the vibe Russell had. He really wasn't part of the team.

And I don't know that he's been there either. So it's hard. You see Handler throw down his helmet and disgust because the ball didn't come to him. That tells me that's not the first time he's been frustrated, that it's been there a few times. And so that was the end result of that. So I guess my question is, did the Broncos really do the due diligence that? they should have, one, before they acquired him, and then two, before they paid him. I think that's where the rub comes. When you're desperate, though, you do desperate things, right? Hey, this is our best

option. If you're George Payton, you can't be sitting there. Was this a risk you sort of had to take? Or could you have done it on different terms and still gotten a deal done and said, Russell? Or at that point, would Russell be like, I'm not coming there? We're doing it this way. It's going to be all about me, or we're not doing it? Well, I think Russell did. say that and I think they were okay with it. And so they're going to have to live with this. But I don't know how you get out from underneath $250 million, $180 guaranteed. I just think that is a sick feeling. And I don't know that this system is going to do it for him. I don't know that the next coach will either because the last coach didn't. We saw this same type of, not to this level,

but we saw the cracks. So, you know, I don't know. Carol can't handle you and wants to move on from you. Who's a 50-year coach who can handle anything. Right. That's a little bit of telling. So let's go forward to the league meetings in March. I don't know where they are this next year. They're probably, you know, they're going to be at some slank place in Arizona or Florida. And, you know, sometimes at night at the hotel there, you know, you see a couple GMs hanging around and have their beers. So let's just say George is in there.

Patent's in there, you know, maybe on the second or third cold, Juan and Schneider. John Schneider, Seattle comes in and sits down a couple stools away. What's that conversation like, Randy, when you make a deal that's defining to both. and it comes out in an extreme way for one of the parties. And I'm sure those guys are friends, hold each other in high regard. You don't really hear a lot of people saying bad things about those guys as guys. They're guys you want to have a beer with. So how does that go?

I'm just curious. I don't think it ever comes up. I don't think you can look at them with a straight face. I just think it's there. Everybody knows it. Hey, I traded Rick Meyer to the Bears for two first round picks to Dave Wonstadt and later traded Ricky Williams to him at the Dolphins for two more first round picks. You and Wani are real close now or what?

No, I mean, I love Dave, but we've never talked about it one time, ever. So I just think it's not a conversation that's going to happen. And it may be that John Snyder wants to avoid it. Nobody wants to embarrass anybody. That's just the way it is. And we all make mistakes. So I think more than anything, what goes around comes around. And I know John enough to know that he's not going to be beaten his chest.

But I will say this about the Seahawks. We criticize slightly about what they got in return from Denny's. Denver? Yeah. I think they were just happy to cut the cord. I think they were going to take the first deal that Russell was okay with going to and make the best deal they could. And it makes sense. We kind of said that at the time. Again, we've kind of been on the front end of this thing. So yeah, yeah, we'll see. Yeah, yeah, but you always wonder how it's going to go in a different place. I didn't buy all that stuff that Seattle didn't know exactly, you know, that Pete Carroll wasn't handling him, right? I was like, I don't know about that. But I'll say this about the ownership. I think the fact that we have brand new owners probably help. get Nathaniel Hackett to the end of the season because they don't know. They just watched their fifth game ever as an owner. So it's not like they have a long history. They might, again, I don't know the family. Obviously, they're very successful in their own right.

But if you just watch this. Retail or something. Yeah. Do they know how low the bar was last night for NFL quality football? I don't know that. So they may want to hire their own people, but probably not going to do it until the end of it because they have a lot of catching up to do, a lot of investigating to do a lot of research to do.

And my guess is they're not there yet. So to answer your question, can we fire this guy right now? I don't think you can't. I don't think the owner will. And I don't think George can pivot enough to where he comes out in the right position either. And there's not really anyone on that staff that's in that position to take the reins. I mean, Dom Kaper's, you know, been there and done that, but it's not in that realm right now. So let's talk, let's pivot to a team that we feel a lot better about relatively.

I mean, Colts fans, shoot, Colts fans have been at the. the end of that bar with a few drinks wallowing in this season. But I'd better be them than Denver. I thought there was times last night where the Colts looked like they might be firing people or something. 100%. I think they're one-fourth and one conversion. Last play of the game away from them being on the, are we firing Frank Reich this week? So do you buy in the locker room after the game, Frank Reich's like, hey, it doesn't matter how you get them. We gutted it out. I'm not, I don't know. I mean, how do you feel about them? And if you're Chris Ballard now, you've got 10 days or whatever until your next game,

you're not as stuck as they are. They're not as stuck with Matt Ryan as Denver is with Wilson for the future. But we can't worry about the future, Randy. We got playoff expectations that we're managing this year, a team that's underperforming, lacks some speed on the outside, the offensive line doesn't look close to what it was. When the pockets in Matt Ryan's lap, he's uncomfortable with it. you can't follow through in his throws. Diagnosis there?

What would you do? Well, that's a hard one to solve. I don't know that you can in week five. And I totally agree with everything you're saying. I think the Colts were exposed just as much as the Broncos were. I mean, we all know Matt Ryan's been a great competitor and a great player. He's a former MVP. But I don't know that he's in more than a shell of himself either.

He struggled to get away from pressure. He can't throw on the run. The ball takes forever to get out of his hand. And you're right. They have no speed on the perimeter, nobody's separating, nobody making plays at all. And you can say, well, they didn't have Jonathan Taylor. I got news for you. They had Jonathan Taylor and they weren't moving the ball on offense for the first few weeks this season.

So that when they haven't figured out how to make him perform at a high level either this year. So there's some definite stuff missing. Now, their defense has its moments. I think Buckner showed why they gave what they did to him, both in compensation pay-wise and in getting him from the 49ers. So defensively, they have some things that they can hang their hat. on. Offensively, I don't know where you go. I don't know where you hang your hat on because they were downright awful and gave up a whole bunch of sacks. And you're right, it starts up front

who's, I think the biggest question you probably ask about up front is, and it's hard to say this, but they have not spent any capital on tackles. They have paid all their money to guards. I'm not questioning Quentin Nelson at all. He is a great player, but he's still a guard at the end of the day. They've got to find a way to upgrade their tackles or it's not going to matter what Quentin. And that was, Randy, that was an issue all off season. I mean, everyone was asking about it. They were going with some no-name guys. They were patching with it. I think there was some element of that at the receiver position, too, where they did get some big targets and guys, you know, some, even a tight end or two in the draft that you liked. And we like, you know, we like, Mike Pittman's a good player.

But for the speed element, and I'm asking you, you know, shoot, drafter of Ted Ginn, Joey Galloway, guys who can flat fly, guys who affect the game, even when they're not catching the the ball. Wasn't that something that everyone said they needed? Well, I sure think so, and I think they need it worse now than ever before. The hard part is now you've got kind of a less confident Matt Ryan, a beaten down Matt Ryan. And I know after the game, he put up a good face in his interview with the crew on Amazon, but let's face it, we all watch the tape. We're not going to run away from that. That was nothing to write home about. We didn't, all we did was we are there at the end, and we were the recipients of really a gift from the Broncos.

So fumbling, taking sacks. How about before the half when he lost about 30 yards? It just looked like, you know, it looked like, it looked like next year someone's going to ask Matt Ryan, when did you know you were done? And he's going to say, if he's honest, he's going to say the end of the first half against because, I mean, that's the one thing you can't do. They're just getting repeated sacks and fumbling. And that took me back to the decision to acquire Matt Ryan.

And we talk about Frank Reich and what his future is going forward. But hear this out. Frank Wright was instrumental in adding Philip Rivers. For whatever reason, they didn't want him back. He was very instrumental in adding Carson Wins. That was a failure. This is another chance for him being influential in a quarterback edition that hasn't worked out, in my opinion. So going forward, whoever's evaluating the quarterbacks in Indy, I think you've got to take a

look at him because they haven't got it done yet. So if that's Frank, can he be part of the decision? Because let's face it, they're going to have to have a quarterback going after this year, right? I mean, can we cut to the chase? They're going to be in the market for probably a young first round quarterback if they, if there are any worthy. And I'm just saying their criteria for how they're evaluating, that has to change. And maybe the evaluators, they have to get a new evaluator or two to help with this process because they have swung and missed now three times. clearly, and I think as a GM, part of your job is to find a quarterback that your coach wants. So if you believe in your coach as a play color and designer, you get him a guy that you think that fits well with him.

And you can't just pick anybody you want. So the Rivers thing made some sense to me as a stop gap, right? I mean, you could have made a case for Rivers at that point. If you're trying to get a guy, in retrospect, they probably should have kept him another year. You could have made a case at the time for when. So like, hey, this is a guy who's played well before. We got Frank Reich. And look, Wence was bad, but he wasn't this bad. I mean, I think Wens is better than they've been this year. Maybe I'm wrong. And then this year, you were sort of, geez, you weren't in position to draft one.

They weren't going to take Kenny Pickett. So you say, well, gosh, we kind of lucked into Matt Ryan. I mean, we've had this good offensive line. You could sort of find a way to justify each one of them along the way. But I think you're right in deciding how to move forward. You can't just be, this is who Frank Reich wants. Yeah. The criteria has to change. That's my point. It has to change. And the evaluators have to change. The decision making process has to change. And how you go about that? I don't know. I don't know. Does Jim Mersey in on these decisions when they swap these quarterbacks out? Maybe. I don't know. So whoever's doing it just needs some help. That's all I'm saying. Yep. Yep. All right. So one of the months into the season, Randy, this is your, this is a good idea by you that I would have never thought of because I'd never been a GM.

know some GM's never been a GM, but what was your thinking on this idea that you introduce it? Well, I'm always thinking from the GM's chair, right? And I want to know after a month in now, what can I do to help my team? I'm on the road a day or two every week as a real football GM looking at college players. I'm trying to get out and keep my thumb and pulse on what's going to happen in the college draft. But I also can't just leave the coaches hanging as this is their roster and we can't do anything about it. So every waking moment, I'm thinking, what can I do to make this team better? So I was very happy a few years ago when the league moved the trade deadline back from six weeks to, what is it, eight now or something like that.

It gave you a longer chance to, one, evaluate your own team and then two actually be able to make a deal. So I was good with that because I think that gave GMs a window to have an effect on their current team. Most of the time when you go to training camp, or at least when you set your roster at 53, the GM's job is in some areas is done and it's turned over to the coaches. I still think there's things you can do. I think you can tweak the roster. You mentioned the speed thing with Indianapolis. Last time I checked, no one has signed John Ross.

He's a former first round pick of the Bengals who we all know is fast as all get out. An absolute, you know, defensive changer. Changes the way people defend you. And I'm not making a case for him being a great receiver, but they've got to find a way to keep people from ganging up on them. And so things like that, I would go through every free agent on the street, just seeing, can we make a difference? Would this guy make a difference?

Maybe it's a veteran player that's seen as better years, but can change our dynamics in the locker room a little bit, as known as a great leader, a people person, just some way to tweak our group so that we can get a little better at the, you know, at, at least we're trying. We're moving our roster around a little bit. Maybe there's a way internally that you can change, help the head coach change some of the processes that we're identifying. Why do we wait till the by week? Everybody says that the by week, we reassess our own positioning. Why do we wait till the by week?

Let's reassess it right now. So I would always be the motivator behind that. Might piss some people off at times. But hey, I'm always trying to get better. I'm not trying to not do what we're all wanting to do. But I think that's important to have the GM and the head coach have to have that relationship. I know when I was in New Orleans, Jim Haslett, and I talked every night about what we could do better. We didn't wait to make adjustments at the buy week. So I think good GMs are all doing that now.

They're trying to find a way to make a difference with their roster, with their team, with their processes, and you're on constant evaluation alert. Yep. So you mentioned Colts. That's an obvious one for a deep threat. You scribbled down the Packers as well. Are you worried about them? If you're Brian Gutakust, what's your priority? Now, it's not like they have a terrible record, but it hasn't looked great always. I just think offensively, they still struggle at the receiver position. And I know they have young guys that are getting accolades and people are picking him for their fantasy team and all that stuff.

But I don't think those guys are going to win you games in the long run. I have a sleeper spot and a sleeper player for them, and it depends on medical. But I think a guy like OBJ, if Aaron Rogers picked the phone and said, hey, come here. sign with us, be ready by Thanksgiving. I think that could make a giant difference for them down the end. I just think they need somebody like that. If I was Brian, I would probably still be churning out there to find some veteran receiver that I can bring in. I don't see what they have as being special.

I know Randall Cobb is a favorite of Aaron Rogers. They've got a couple other veterans, but I just don't see anybody that can carry this team. I think if a guy like OBJ went to the Green Bay Packers, he might be their best receiver when he gets off the bus. Now pending a physical and you get an idea of when he's in shape. The thing about a guy like OBJ is you've got to, and a GM is like this, you've always got to be thinking ahead. You've got to understand that he got hurt in the Super Bowl. He might not be ready until Thanksgiving. But if we sign him November 1 or October 15th, we can one take charge of his rehab so we know exactly where he's going to be.

And two, he can be in the building and learn the system. So when he does get healthy, he's ready to go. So we've minimized the period of adjustment. So those are the kind of things I think you always got to look forward to and be willing to spend a little money to ensure yourself a better roster for the home stretch. That's all. And that's an interesting thing because it's not like OBJ given his brothers, I'm sure, would love to go to L.A. or someplace like that. Green Bay is not always a place, even though it's a great place for football.

It's not always a place that everyone's looking to move their family during the middle of the winter. So if you are the Packers, do you have to step up with more of a money deal there or is a Rogers phone call enough? Well, I think it's a little of both. I think where you've got to use Rogers. He's your gold ribbon standard, right? But you can pay him whatever he wants. I agree with you. I think the favorite to land him is still L.A.

But the Packers can pay whatever they want. I guarantee OBJ is coming. If they pay more than anybody else and it's excessively more, sometimes you've got to be willing to do that. You can't always be tied to, well, the market's this, so we'll offer $10 more than that, and he should be willing to come to Green Bay because he's Aaron Rogers. You know what? Set your pride aside, pay him a million bucks more, and let's go to the Super Bowl.

But sometimes you have to adopt that mentality. That's all I'm saying, depending on where you're at as a team and where you are during the season. I've wondered about the NFC. I was thinking about this with Tampa Bay, not looking so great the other day, too. You know, it's just, is it one of those, is it a year in the NFC where you just sort of hang around? And even if you're a wildcard team, you might go all the way. Could a team like Green Bay or Tampa Bay that hasn't looked its best just sort of hang around? And then in the end, okay, now we get, now Godwin's going or now we got somebody on Green Bay.

And you're actually not that far off from where you were last year in the end. And you just waited out. I think for me, Mike, every year is like that. Every year is just what you said. I want to be around 500 at Thanksgiving. And that's always my goal. And everybody says, oh, you want to be. That's mediocrity.

You're happy with being mediocre. We got six more games after Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving. Five for sure in regular season in most times. So I want to be healthy. I want to be in the hunt around Thanksgiving and ready to make a push at the end. So I always would use that as a gauge. That's our measuring stick. We played in London when I was with the Dolphins. We played the Giants in the first game ever in London. It was the first regular season game in London. And when we played the Giants, I want to say it was like week six or seven, something like that. But we hadn't won a game. I think we were 0 and 5. and they were like, oh, I don't know, three and two or four and two. When we played them, they beat us like 19 to 12, but that's not the story. It was that I didn't think the Giants were a Super Bowl team. I mean, they were just another team at that point. And we're coming up on the halfway point, which maybe we're right where we are now,

week five, week six, somewhere in there. And I remember riding home on the plane saying, I mean, we could have won this game. We're no different than them. The Giants went on to win the Super Bowl that year. So at this point in the season, you don't know how it's going to work out. You don't know who's going to get hot. You don't know who's going to push the right buttons. You know, so it's a long grind.

And teams are jockeying for position now, but I think your terms is correct. They're jockeying to stay alive. That's what they're doing. To stay in the hunt until we get to a measuring stick that really means something. And that's week 12. Yep. That could also lure you into a little complacency if you aren't going to make a move and wait it out. Hey, we got Rogers.

It'll be fine at the end. And these guys get up to speed. We'll see what to do. What's in the notebook this week, the GM notebook? Well, there was a couple things that jumped out at me last week for sure. The first one that I made notes of last Sunday that I was so impressed with was in the New England game. We all saw them play the Packers in Green Bay. I thought Bill Belichick put on a clinic of game management, clock management, time management.

We know that Brian Hoyer got hurt early and he was dealing with the third string quarterback Bailey Zappy. He was not going to let that kid cost him the game. I thought he mastered the clock at the end. And in a world where every week, it seems like we watch college coaches and pro coaches, and I shake my head about how bad they manage their timeouts, how bad they manage the clock, how bad they manage the game, Bill Belichick, and this is not a surprise to anybody shouldn't be, can still do it. And he was freaking awesome.

I thought it was a great, a great testament into exactly knowing the rules, knowing the details, knowing how seconds are important, and it was a clinic that everybody should see. And in the end, they lost the game. They went into overtime and they lost. But I'll say this, they were one completion from Zappi away from on a third down and overtime when they had the ball to 50 away from trying a game-winning field goal. And I thought it was really impressive. So it was the first thing that jumped out at me was Bill Belichick. I wonder how many times a third quarterback has gone to overtime a really close game against a quarterback as caliber of Aaron Rogers.

I mean, that takes some of that stuff you're talking about from Belichick to get that done. So I thought that also was pretty cool. because I've been down on New England. I mean, I'm not like I'm sky high on them, but there's just not a lot that I'm that excited about and how they've done things. So that was a pretty cool thing. I agree with you on that.

What else you got? We saw a little comeback from the Chiefs last week after we had reported on their demise the week before and they had gotten chopped up a little bit. And what impressed me the most was, I thought Andy Reed and his crew took the loss the prior week personal. I thought they said, hey, this was, I thought they did.

the best job I've seen in probably a year and a half of game planning, of scheming, of executing. So I give this to the players in their win over Tampa. And it was an impressive, actually organizational win. And I was just really impressed by that because they had been challenged a little bit the week prior. I mean, let's face it, this team went to Indianapolis and lost. And then they went to Tampa and played Tampa and found a way to really change the narrative. about their team. And I just was impressed with the way they schemed it and then executed. And I thought they let Pat Mahomes be Pat Mahomes. He was outstanding. And it just shows they're on it. I mean,

Andy Reed's been doing this a long time. He's not bored. Andy Reid, they are on it. And I felt like that in the first game of the year too. I think they played Arizona or, uh, but you know, hey, Tyree Kill. What are you going to do without Tyree Kill? It was like these guys care and they're engaged and they are going to prove you wrong. And, and, I love it about them. I love that. The other thing I like about Kansas City right now is, you know, I think in some of the years recently, as maybe it was last year, you know, they were, they were so bad defensively. Like there was always, they were taking on water somewhere and you just felt like, okay,

they'll get it figured out, but I just think they've answered some questions this year. The Colt game to me was a fluky loss where they had that fumble on special teams and suddenly it's first and goal. It was one of the all-time worst special teams games. which isn't like them. I mean, they have a good special teams coach. That's not going to happen every week. That's a win 99. That's a win 99 times out of 1,000 for them.

That'll never happen again. You asked me before the show also, did they expose the Patriots a little bit on defense? Because as we saw, they were able to run the ball. And they may have given a game plan, but here's who I credit for that. If another team has Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuny and, you know, Trace Smith,

these other interior offensive linemen, then God bless them. Because they had Vita V. Or they exposed Tampa. Yeah. They exposed Tampa. I'm sorry. And they pushed that group back, which nobody does. So I more of the more of exposing Tampa, I think it, it showed how good Kansas City is interior in that offensive line that the center and the two guards. They took it personal too. So I was impressed with with their kind of effort. And not that they didn't play hard. they always play hard, but they took the loss hard too. And again, that was part of their execution. And they just said, they bowed their necks and said, I don't care if it's Vita Vaya and

the vaunted Tampa run defense. We pushed them around. Yeah, absolutely. That was very good. So Andy Reid, Bill Belichick stepping up. That's good to see. Good for the league. What else you got?

I had one other thing, just in general of watching the games last week and that I think everybody wants to jump ahead to on most cases because they're already talking about the draft. But in watching the games last week, and you correct me if you think there's there's somebody missing here, if I'm wrong. These are the teams that I identified already as of teams that are going to be in the hunt for a quarterback in the first round next year. I'm talking about the Vikings, the Saints, the Falcons probably, the commanders, the Seahawks, the Colts, the Texans.

And you may even have to put Bronco Country in there now as far as a quarterback for the future. So there's a bunch of teams that I think normally you wouldn't have this discussion after week four or five. But I think there's a lot of GMs now that they may not be discussing this internally, but they're hitting the road this week knowing that if they didn't already know that they need to solve a quarterback issue going forward. So that's just six or seven teams that I had written down that I think are going to be vying for a quarterback high in next spring's draft. Have you peaked at any of the guys in college? We'll do a separate show on it sometime. I have not. Yeah. I need to. But this made me think about, gosh, I need to get on that because

normally I wouldn't even do that until two thirds of the way into the season. It's a early. And it's getting late early, as somebody quoted as saying years ago. But it's getting late early for a lot of these teams looking for a quarterback. A better thing you would put down right that I was interested in was some of these young quarterbacks that are struggling, you know, you know, certainly Chicago with Justin Fields. Baker Mayfield, who's a little bit more of a veteran, as is Carson Wentz, or now we're seeing Pittsburgh make a change. It's a common theme with some of these teams, isn't there? Well, I just think the quarterbacks get too much blame. And I'm sticking up for them. That's all. And I'm not a Nick Mitch Trubisky apologist or Baker

Mayfield apologists or Justin Field for that matter. But I think before fans persecute them, they need to look at the tape and see exactly what we're doing. I think we've, you and I have both questioned the offensive scheme in Pittsburgh. Shoot, it didn't really highlight Ben Rathesberger a year ago. And as we know, Matt Cadet is their offensive coordinator. If I say, see one more under route, a screen to the tight end or something that's simply, it's just elementary, right? And I don't see any answers being given to the quarterback. So Mitch takes the fall. He gets benched at halftime. They bring in Kenny Pickett, who yeah, gives him a little juice. I understand it, but he threw three interceptions as well, by the way. So I'm not sure that they could roll Terry Bradshaw

out there and make a giant difference in that case. Just the scheme doesn't warrant, you know, blaming the quarterback for everything. And my point is in, in Chicago and in Carolina. minor, it's a, it's a, it's an organizational evaluation when you're talking about the quarterback and the quarterback gets the instant blame. Baker Mayfield, I know he's six foot tall and he's going to get balls tipped and he got some tipped last week, but I also saw an offense that I think at least Ben McAdoo's trying to instill a scheme. It hasn't really worked yet. They tried to feature a tight end early in the game last week. He dropped two balls. He got a holding call. He jumped off sides. I mean, didn't work. Yeah. They're just not good enough to run what,

what Ben wants to do. But I'm saying at least I, see a scheme there, but I can't put it all on Baker. He had tons of balls dropped. It was fumbled snaps. I mean, not on him, but fumbled handoffs. There's just a lot that goes into evaluating these quarterbacks week to week. Justin Fields has completed 34 balls the whole year, but they never throw the ball. So either they don't trust him or they don't have a system that can spread the ball around at all. So I don't think they're really doing him a service either that evaluates him. I didn't ever think we'd want Matt Nagy back in the mix, but after watching the last couple weeks of the bears, it makes me shake my head. So my only point is, let's just don't put all

the focus on the quarterbacks. A lot of times it is the scheme, it is the system, there are other people involved. And I think with a couple of those places, Chicago and Carolina, we know there's systemic problems or there has been organizational. I think Pittsburgh's just really interesting, because Mike Tomlin's probably going to be a Hall of Fame coach. But one of the things that we've maybe talked about before is, I think the great coach, can have his staff atrophy on him over time. And I think if you look, I watched that with Mike Holmgren in Seattle. When Mike Holmgren was in Green Bay,

all-star roster of assistant coaches, Andy Reed, Ray Road, Steve Mary Hoochee, John Gruden, Dick Geron, they all became head coaches and a bunch of them won. It was really great staff. And Mike came to Seattle. He didn't have those guys and Schultz stumbled around trying to get an offensive defensive coordinator. Unfortunately, Fritz Shermer, who was great, died. and by the end there was a bunch of guys who, you know,

not that they weren't good coaches, but they weren't those guys. Right. And I feel like with Tomlin, if you go back in time, they had Bruce Ariens or they had Ken Wisenet or they even had Todd Haley. These are guys, you could criticize him, you could say this or that, but at various points, sometimes multiple times, teams got together and said, this is our head coach. And they, Ken Wizanot went to a Super Bowl as a head coach with a place in Arizona that never did. Bruce Ariens obviously has had success. He's had good quarterbacks, but he's had good success.

Now, what are you left with there? And especially on that offensive side of the ball, because Mike Tom was not an offensive coach, I think it's just so critical. And we see that that job is so critical. And you talked about it a few weeks ago of what Matt Canada's background is. I mean, Indiana, Northern Illinois, Wisconsin, North Carolina State, Pitt, LSU, Maryland. That's like in the last 10 years. So that is something, you know, that's a place where we assume certain things about Pittsburgh, but in the last several years they've had Dan Rooney die. Now you've had Kevin Colbert retire. Now you've had some of those name offensive coordinator guys leave. Ben Rathesberger's left. So there's a real impetus here. Now you draft, can he pick it?

Well, guess what? He's not filling all those voids. Yeah. He needs those things. Right. And if I'm Mike Tomlin and I'm the general manager there, that's big time priority number one. And maybe they probably should have done it this year. But sometimes it's hard after one year to admit that you're making a change.

But still, what do you think? I agree with you. Those are really good points. And I couldn't agree more. I think experience in the NFL is hard to come by. And I'm not saying you should never go outside that. But in this case, you listed the bio of where Matt's been. None of that has been NFL stuff. So I just think that's education again is expensive.

Yep. And so as we go to Kenny Pickett, oh, it's exciting. Let's evaluate Kenny Pickett. Okay. Like you're saying, let's evaluate the whole operation for him because he's coming in new to this too. What they probably should have done, Mike, is Mark Whipple was the offensive coordinator at University of Pittsburgh. And he was a former Steeler coach. They should have moved him to the other side of the building when they got Pickett and did what he did.

it at Pitt with him. And that would have made for an easy transfer of power, I think. But there's always things like that in hindsight. You'd consider this. But I think we may have even talked about that. Yeah. No, you did. Yeah. You, I think you did bring that up. And you brought that up a couple times with, I think you brought it up with somebody else too, that, hey, that's not a bad idea. Is that BYU's coordinator? Who's now Baylor. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Sometimes you get that guy. So try to make it easy. Yeah. Make that fit be as good as you possibly can. We do have some interesting games as week. We're going to pick some games here down the stretch too,

but we don't have to pick them all. I started a couple games as you did too. Giants at Packers in London. That's always that early morning game, Randy, where I come into my office really early, and then I usually, I'm on the West Coast, so I might be in my office that's, you know, 6.30 in the morning on Sunday.

And then at 7.15, I'm like, oh, shoot, there's a game. And I turn it on. I'm so happy to watch this game. I almost forgot because I'm not used to it that early. but what is interesting to you about this game? I know you started. Well, I'm with you on the early games. I love the early games from London.

I wish we had them all time. But I'm a little older guy, so I'm up real early. And it gives me somewhere to focus. And the other thing is I'm not a big fan of the pregame shows on the NFL, you know, on Sundays. So this is real football. I don't have to listen to any, this may happen, that may happen. This is what's happening. And I prefer that every day of the week.

So I think in this case, the reason I'm interested in it is, I think the Giants, we all know the record. I think they're three and one or whatever, but I don't think anybody's really bought in yet and said this is a good team. And I think this is a step up in class for them. I think playing the Packers in London is a little different animal than they've played so far. I think the style that Brian Dayball has to play and win with with this giant team is a little ugly. It's a little muddy.

He's got to muck it up. You know, he's got to hang around until the fourth quarter and then hope to make a play. Hope Daniel Jones or somebody doesn't screw it up and we actually make a play. They were direct snapping to Barclay last week because the quarterback was hurt. Unbelievable. Incredible. In fact, somebody asked me, it might have been on Twitter, why did they run Daniel Jones in there and then have him line up at a receiver on one leg?

I think to that end, Mike, to answer your question, they ran Daniel Jones in there so he could call the plane a huddle, make sure everybody got lined up and he got out of the way. And he could only get to halfway to the sideline, so just line up. Sequin was probably a quarterback at some point along the way. But, I mean, that's too much to ask in the middle of the fourth quarter on the road to get everyone mind up and know the call? I mean, come on. I know. So that's the kind of things that I think I'm looking forward to seeing in Green Bay and Giants is that can the Giants hang around in, you know, against Aaron Rogers to have a chance in the fourth quarter? I don't know. Well, you talked about that great coaching

job that Belichick did last week. It's going to take that sort of a thing. You know, I think New England definitely has a better roster than the Giants, though, to do it. And certainly Belichick's got a lot more games. But I've been impressed by, I think we've been impressed by Dayball almost everywhere he's been, and we saw, you know, them do it obviously in Buffalo. And I think what the Giants have done is, you know, I think they were a comedy of errors before, you know, and I think that they're just not beating themselves. It doesn't mean that they're necessarily winning the game. But if you don't beat yourself in the NFL, you're going to win some games because the other team will beat themselves or they'll be a limited team. So I think he's done a.

about as well as you could. I think the approach is better. And the coach brings something to the table on Sundays to make a difference. I think you can compare and parallel maybe Jacksonville and the Giants, both coming off the kind of programs they were in the past, whether it was Urban Meyer or Joe Judge. This group seems to be a little more on top of things and less chaos, per se, and more respect from the leader, from the voice of our team in the head coach.

So for whatever reason, it seems to be working. Yeah, that's one where you have a first-time head coach and a first-time GM. That can be dicey, but like so far I've been like, okay, you know. Looks like a couple pros. Yeah, it looks like a couple pros. Cowboys at Rams interest me, Randy, with Dallas kind of being three-in-one here. It looked like doom and gloom. They lost deck, Prescott.

Shoot, it's almost looked better at times or just more coherent here. I know you've been impressed with Dallas, too, and that's the team. Let's just give them a little due here because we're all over them all the time. and we don't like the Jerry Jones set up. We've wondered what they do structure-wise with Mike McCarthy having, you know, coordinators and what does he do on game day and all of that. But I think we have to tip our cap. I think you really got to tip your cap to Kellynne Moore for the kind of strategy he's employed,

for the kind of scheming he's employed with the minus of DAC Prescott, what he's been able to do with Cooper Rush, where the ball's coming out, it's quick, they've ran the ball well. And we've set it on here on the show before. I just think he's learned to call a little bit of a different game. It'll be interesting to see if you. he can continue to call this when DAC does come back. But I credit Kellyn for for kind of almost a maturation process of playing to win the game

instead of just calling plays. And he's done a really good job of that. Yeah. Do you feel like, so Dak Prescott once was in that position too, where when he first got in there, it was all about the team and protecting him. And then as you go along, he has success and he grows and he's gotten better. And then you pay him all that money and you have a young coordinator. and of course Jerry Jones is watching, hey, I got this star quarterback.

I want to see a star quarterback. Do you think that maybe they got into trying to do too much or having the emphasis on trying to do stuff with DAC or I guess what I'm saying is, did they get away from what's best to win the game because, hey, we've got this quarterback and we're going to do this and that? Yeah, I know what you're saying. And I think they did get to where they felt like they had to be at second level or third level on offense because we've got this all pro quarterback in DAC and we can do so many things. Sometimes when you are without that, you go back to basics.

And I think that's what they did. Their offensive line has played better. They have gone back to the basics. And I think that's the lesson. And maybe it took Dak getting hurt for Kellyn to reel the whole thing in and start at a more proficient level. And I think you'll notice they haven't made the mistakes. The penalties haven't been an issue. They're not trying to do all these crazy things.

So as my college, coach used to say, let's just do less but do it better. And I think that's what they're doing. The other huge component of this, Randy, is they're playing good defense. And I think you can now adjust. Like remember when that year when Dak got hurt, you know, and missed five games, or only played five games, shoot, they were giving up 35 points a game. I mean, they had to play a certain way offensively. I think now you've gotten this chance to have.

have DAC out of there, simplify it down probably, just, you know, like you said, the short passes, the occasional deep strike. And then defensively, this is the first time since Jerry Jones bought the team. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in any of their first four games. So that's outstanding for them and allows you to have that context. So now maybe when you get Dak Prescott back, you get a more skilled quarterback and they're a more experienced quarterback. Can you keep that context a little bit? I hope so because I hope they don't go back to we can do all these things now because Dak's back. I just think. they found the formula, let's stick with it.

And maybe this is what it's taken to get them to pivot a little bit. So he mentioned they're playing the Rams. Are you worried about the Rams? I kind of am, but. We were worried about them last year, if you remember, at certain points. They got pushed around and guess who started it, the 49ers? I'm worried about the Rams if they got to play the 49ers front every week because they found out they can't play.

They can't even be in the same room with it. I'm worried about anybody who has to play that front. Yeah, that's crazy. That was an ass kick. So unless they find some defense like that they're going to play, I'm not worried. worried about the Rams. I think they'll be fine. I do think they've got to find a way to diversify on offense. I mean, Cooper Cup can't keep 15 catches every week, and that's the only guy we can throw to. I think they've got to find some diversity there and probably comes with running the

ball, even if it's a trick running game, you know, kind of a fraud running game. They've got to find a way to have some other options besides Cooper Cup. Yep, they've been better. When they were better, they were better on the offensive line. I think that's a, there's been some, some decline there, and we'll see what they can do there. Bengals Ravens is a big game, Randy. I don't know. Is this one of the ones you picked? I need to look at what your picks are.

It is not. But I agree with you. I do think it's a big game. I think there was a lot of things written last week because Cincinnati won the game that all of a sudden they had things solved. I don't think they have things solved at all. I think they've still got issues up front. They won the game last week. So you like to win games when you don't have your A game.

But that's still a work in progress with that offensive line, the changes they've made. And we detailed them last week, you know, when they played on Thursday night, we had the podcast the next day. So I'm not sold on the Bengals, being ready to turn up the heat like they did last year. The other thing is the Ravens, and the Ravens are a little bit of a up and down psychotic case study themselves. I mean, they've lost two 17-point leads in the second half. We talked a little bit about John Harbaugh and his propensity to analyze and go with analytics when he didn't take the lead in their game last week at the four-minute mark. I just, you've got to help me, Mike.

I don't know when it's become a good idea to not take the lead inside four minutes of any game. I just, I can't fathom that. Well, I mean, I think that comes down analytically to how much you value the other team being pinned at their own two yard line. That's the key part of the equation because if you go for it, if you go for it on, you're not expecting the interception. Let's set aside the interception of Lamar Jackson. It happens, though. It does. It does. But it's a little bit of an unlikely.

event. But your choice there would be be up seven, which is really good situation. Or, hey, the other teams at their own two with this much time left, we're actually likely to be the team to score next anyway. Now, I did a piece on that today, and we've seen a lot of teams pinned, deep, go all the way down the field late in the game and score. And in fact, it's happened twice on the Ravens. in the last year or two, the last few years. So that's the key point of it. It's kind of the analytics term is expected points. And that's just really, hey, what's the value of field position?

And I think John Harbaugh feels like. And a lot of people who are into analytics feel like, hey, you know what? Having them pinned at their own two in a tie game, we're actually ahead because we're actually going to score next in that situation. You sitting there in the GM chair, not buying that. Well, I understand it. I guess I see the numbers. heard his explanation. I think I would have respected him more if he had just said, we're afraid of

to Josh Allen. I didn't want to give Josh Allen the ball. I just, I don't know if we could stop him. I just, I would have respected that answer more than the one he did give. So I just, you know, I hear you. I understand it. I think, again, analytics, as I've always said, are part of the equation that's information we need. But I'm not sure I agree with not taking the lead when you have a chance to late in a game. And they've been so up and down offensively, too, which is a part of this matchup that I want to talk about because last year, I believe since he had the Ravens number, and they had actually one game. They had a really great plan where they kind of shut down that Raven offense. This year, the Raven offense has been spectacular at times and bad at other

times. It's been built big leads and then, you know, shoot down the stretch of this game, this last game against Buffalo. They were punting and a couple interceptions. It hasn't looked right. One of the things I've noticed about them is they've been really bad on third down. We'll see if that evens out, but that's been an area of concern, which just sort of gets into the when you have to pass category. How do you feel, is this one of those games where the Ravens have their way a little bit, but then Joe Burrow just keeps coming and keeps coming and keeps coming, and we were down on the wire again, and Baltimore might lose? I think last year, yes, this year, no. I'm not picking this game, but if I was, I would pick the Ravens. I just think they're a better team,

especially playing better right now than the Bengals are. Like I said, I think the Bengals have some issues, whether it's execution of their past protection individually or from a scheme standpoint on where, how to pick people up, they just seem lost at times to me. I think the Ravens will expose that. So as long as the Ravens don't self-destruct, you know, if they can keep their people on the rails, we saw a little bit of a meltdown on the sidelines with a couple of their guys last week after that game. I think the Ravens are the team that I would pick in the match-up. Yep. So before we get to our picks, there's one. more game I put a star by it. It seems like the AFC West is playing each other at

time. I don't know if that's any different than the other season, but here we got Raiders at Chiefs in the Sunday night spot. And the Chiefs have looked great lately. And the Raiders have, they finally won a game, but they beat Denver, which isn't that big of a deal. Now, the Raiders were a team, Randy, that I thought would be a little bit better offensively out of the gates, just because of the weaponry they have. I think Derek Carr is fine. I think Josh McDaniels is a good collar. Is this the Raiders being led to slaughter here in Kansas City or is there any reason to think that they, you know, will get it going or are going and can play well in this game? Well, it's an AFC West game, so you never know, never say never. I would say this about this

particular matchup. I think for the Raiders to have a chance, they've got to go four corners. They've got to slow the game down. They've got to run the ball as much as they can. Josh has to produce one of those game plans like he did in New England when they had inferior personnel to keep them around, let them hang around. That's the way they've got to do this. They've got to muck it up a little bit and steal a possession here or there by maybe having 10 and 12 play drives for a touchdown and wind the clock. So I think that's the best chance they have. One, it's in Kansas City, so we know the crowd there is crazy. He can take the air out of that. But I think from a strategic standpoint, he's got to find a way to slow the pace of

the game down, which is kind of slowing Mahomes specifically. God, it's seven and a half the spreads on that. I'm tempted to almost move that into my picks. What do you got for your picks this week? Well, last week I was two and one. Got the Minnesota game over Minnesota, got the Dallas game over Washington. I saw a couple games here that I like. The matchup, Philly at Arizona, I've been bullish on Philly.

I think Philly's a really good team. They're obviously undefeated. They're going to the desert, and they are a five-and-a-half-point favorite. I'm going to take Arizona in the game because of the cross-country travel, because of the fact that I think the Eagles are going to stumble here at some point, but I'm really going to take Arizona in the five and a half because of their defense. Their defense got after Carolina last week and up front. They were really good. I don't know whether T.J. Watt found a little fountain of youth, but he played really good.

I was impressed by the way they tackled and the physicality of their Cardinals defense. so I'm going to pick them in the matchup with Arizona, I mean in the matchup with Philly, and you're getting five and a half points on top of that, so I'm taking Arizona into five and a half. The other game I'm picking is New England, giving three and a half points to Detroit. Detroit is crazy, but leads the league in offense. They also lead the league in bad defense. I just think it's a coaching mismatch. I think Bill Belichick's going to find a way with getting Bailey Zappy reps this week in practice.

They'll find a way to win. the game, especially against a bad defense that the lines are rolling out every week. You only having to give three and a half points. The game is in New England, I believe. So I think New England giving three and a half is, I mean, I think that's a good bet against the Detroit defense that's taking on water and a little bit of a still a working progress on offense. You know, somebody, I can't remember I was talking to you before the draft was saying they actually liked Bailey Zappi and thought it had him as a number two. quarterback in the draft last year. I don't remember who that was, but I talked to a lot of people.

That was Randy Mueller, by the way, who liked him. Not to take in the first round, but you like the things about him as a smaller guy, which we normally don't like. You thought this guy doesn't play small in the pocket. I thought he functioned last week really good, too, without any reps. You know Brian Hoyer got all the time, so Bailey got very few reps. I think now he's going to have a week under his belt. They're going to have a game plan that suits him. And that's again why I think I would pick them in the Detroit game. I like Sappias in this spot. So last week, Andy, I mean, I should be more accountable than this, but I kind of piggyback to your Detroit pick against Seattle last week. I was one-on-one. I took Kansas City and I took Kansas City against Tampa Bay, so got that one right.

I think I got a point with that too, and I just thought the wrong game was favored. And then I, I agreed with you. You followed a loser. You followed me. No, but I, I mean, shoot, look at all the things Seattle had to do to win that game. I mean, with a pick six, they're scoring on every drive, and they still pretty much almost should have lost the game. I mean, it was a lot to win the game. And I mean, so that's not a bad pick, actually. I mean, that was crazy. But I'm a little bit tempted this week. Tell me if I'm wrong here, but you get five and a half with Seattle against New Orleans. And we don't know the New Orleans quarterback situation. I don't think New Orleans offense is the Detroit offense. I agree with you, but the one thing that scares me is I don't think Seattle's

defense is up to any prime time challenges, that's for sure. They have not found a way to run the ball, and I think the Saints are going to find a way to continue to pound the ball on Seattle. Unless Seattle can find a way to bow their neck, I just don't know that they have the players to stop anybody on defense, and that's a problem. Yeah, and yet, then the Saints have a pretty good defense. So this could easily be one of those weeks where, oh, Gino Smith, yeah, he's been great, but, you know, actually he had one touchdown on one pick, and they scored 17 points. So I do believe that comes into play. I am going to take the five and a half with Seattle and ride the Gino train,

partly because one of the X factors in this game that no one will talk about is both teams have been all over the map on special teams. And they've both been good before, like Darren Rizzy's known as a good special teams coach for New Orleans. Seattle, special teams have been a big part of their success. over the years. That's kind of a volatile X factor here, and we'll see how that turns out. Maybe that makes this game one to stay away from. I will take the five and a half,

and I will admit, I think it's been fun to watch Gina Smith, and maybe it all comes crashing down this week, but I'll do that one. I think I would take Dallas and get five and a half again. I'll do the two, a couple five and a half or two. You did a five and a half or two with taking Arizona. to, maybe, you know, maybe you're right and nothing to be worried about with the Rams,

but I think Dallas plays good defense. I think they can get after the quarterback. And I think when you get after Matt Stafford, we're seeing a pick six every once in a while, right? Yep. That's going to be. And there's a couple play in Dallas is that type of team. They were really turnover dependent last year, but they've actually played better defense, not just feasting on turnover. So I could see that being a game where maybe that Dallas defense, Like, what's the thing you trust the most in that game between Dallas and the Rams? Is it Stafford in the Bay? Probably Dallas's pass rush.

I think Dallas's pass rush is going to be a factor. And I think the way this is shaping up now is I don't know if the Rams can keep Stafford upright. We saw against the 49ers, they got exposed. But Michael Parsons, I don't feel much better about blocking him, you know. I don't either. And that's why, look, I'm not saying Dallas is going to win the game, but I'll take the five and a half. You know, a few other games I'm not going to pick that I just thought were interesting. You know, Atlanta getting 10 at Tampa.

I think Atlanta's feisty. Maybe they just get absolutely slaughtered. But they're just a feisty team. I kind of respect what they've done. They should have beat New Orleans in the first game, you know, or earlier in the year. So I kind of like them. Minnesota, I thought you were going to pick Minnesota. Did you pick Minnesota?

No, I'm steering clear of Minnesota in Chicago. Don't really, not drinking to Kool-Aid on either team. Yeah, okay. So that's one that I think is interesting. And your Philly one, I'm not picking. the Philly one, but if I was, I might go the other way. So I think that's interesting. Arizona than me is just concerning. So I got you. I also think it's going to be home crowd for Philly. It's at Arizona, right? Oh, you mean all Philly will travel. Oh, Philly will travel with a four or no

Philly team. Yeah. And Arizona's already a market where all the tickets are for sale every week, depending on who's coming into town, because it's a lot of people who aren't from there living there. Yeah. And so I think it's going to be a huge Philly. environment. And in fact, Randy, I'm giving the five and a half. How about that? I'm going to do three five and a halfers. That's crazy.

You're slapping me in the face because I have Arizona. I know, but you and I can go head to head. I think we agree a lot. I think we're both, you know, extremely smart level-headed guys. I look at it more like this. That's why Baskin Robbins has 31 flavors, right? Everybody gets to pick a flavor when they walk in the door. Well, but I always agree.

I usually agree with you. But I like, you know what? This is my revenge for the Detroit. Detroit one last year that I tried to copy you. I got my ankles taped. I'm ready to roll. I got it. So you know what?

I guarantee this. One of us probably going to be right. I don't think you can't win. I don't think it's going to be a five and a half point margin in the score. Probably not. I don't think so. Maybe that Indie Denver game could have had five and a half points totally forward some way or another.

But you got anything else for any? No, I apologize to the listeners. We've gone a little long today and longer than us. And neither one of us are really long-winded. But we're fixing to give us. back to somebody else here. The game went overtime last night. If that game can go overtime, we can go overtime.

Anything can justify overtime if that game can justify overtime. Any comparison to last night to the Thursday night game, I don't want any part of Mike. So count me out. Yeah, no doubt. Yeah. Hey, for Russell Wilson, this is Matt Ryan signing off on the bill. I'll take their bank accounts, though. I'll tell you that.

Two weeks. Yeah, absolutely. So, hey, he's Randy Mueller. You can find him at Mueller. You can find him on Twitter at Randy Mueller underscore. I am Mike Sandow. from The Athletic. You can find me on the Athletic,

which makes a lot of sense since I worked with the Athletic, and you can find me on Twitter at Sando NFL. Hopefully we will find us with a better game to talk about to lead off next Thursday night. I don't even know who we got on Thursday night.

Let me just take a little bit ahead. I'm afraid to look. I know Denver's on Monday night. Oh, my goodness. This is Washington at Chicago. Washington at Chicago. Wow. I think I got to go fishing.

I'm sorry, man. All right. Sounds good. Maybe it'll surprise. So, everybody. Thanks for coming along, everybody. We'll get you next time. This was the Athletic Football Show.