The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Football GM: NFL head coach openings, young QBs in the playoffs, Wild Card picks & more

Episode Date: January 12, 2023

As head coach interviews are underway across the NFL, Mike Sando and former GM Randy Mueller discuss each of the openings, the top candidates and more. Then, they examine the young QBs in the playoffs and what they’re looking forward to watching. They close out the show with the GM Notebook and their Wild Card picks.Follow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLFollow Randy on Twitter: @RandyMueller_Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube1:01 Damar Hamlin discharged from the hospital2:22 Head coach hiring process…   -3:12 Cardinals    -10:44 Texans   -15:42 Broncos    -23:00 Panthers   -30:25 Colts33:44 Similarities between Sean Payton and Sean McVay40:38 Young QBs in the playoffs48:22 Will the Lions be contenders next season?54:08 GM Notebook1:01:46 Wild Card picks Today's show is brought to you by...Peloton: Try Peloton risk free with a 30-Day Home Trial, New Members only at onepeloton.com/home-trialPhilo: Sign up today at philo.tv and use promo code MAYS to get 50% off your first monthBetter Help: Visit BetterHelp.com/MAYS today to get 10% off your first monthPenrose Hill: Get your first 6 bottles for $39.95 plus FREE shipping. Go to TryFirstleaf.com/MAYS Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome everyone to the Football GM podcast. Mike Sando here from The Athletic along with the GM, Randy Mueller. How are you, Randy? Doing great, Mike, fired up, got a great playoff slate in front of us. I don't know why. Maybe I'm just a dork, but I get excited about these things, right? I love to talk about it, especially this time of year.

We'll see where it goes. If you're a dork, I don't know what that makes a media guy like me, but probably several levels of that. But I love all the transitions to the different seasons, off-season, training camp, all of it. But after 18 weeks of regular season, I can't wait to have a condensed slate of games and really be able to watch all of them and really get into all of them.

So we will talk about that today. Of course, we'll have our picks because I don't think we missed one all year. We're not going to start now. But first off the top, Randy, the DeMarne Hamlin news is so great that he's been released from a hospital. I mean, God, for as scary as that was, and we delayed or took off a show when that happened. And then, you know, last week we were heartened with the news and we were still a little uncertain if we'd be talking about. But that's probably the best news of the day, huh?

Yeah, without a doubt. I mean, for him to be completely free and released to his own, you know, to his own care is incredible. And I think you can even parlay that into where the bills are right now. And I think we talked a little bit about this last week, what it could do for them emotionally, spiritually, just coming together as a team. I think this team's on, I think, on a roll already. They've won a bunch of games in a row.

So this is only going to help, I think, produce their best efforts, not having this burden to carry now. So I think it's good for everybody. Oh, the AFC is amazing. I mean, the Bengals have a chip on their shoulder because they kind of got the raw end of that seating thing. Yep. The bill's got to be on an emotional mission.

And then the chief, don't forget about them. They're just the best team in the league most years. Oh, yeah. By the way, I forgot about them already. Yeah. So I can't wait to see how that all plays out. We've got tons of news on the hiring, firing front. So we thought we'd start off with kind of the head coach hiring process underway.

Nothing's going too fast at this stage, which is probably a good thing, isn't it, Randy? That sometimes people rush into these deals to win the press conference almost. It's a process, isn't it? Yeah, it's definitely a process. There's a long haul for a lot of these teams. And anytime you rebuild or redirect, pivot, however you want to call it, these things happen. But like I remember when I got the Saints job in 2000 out of Seattle, we were still talking around Super Bowl time. And that was three weeks from now.

So it is a long process. Everybody's different. I do think teams seem to act sooner than later nowadays. They seem to have more of their ducks lined up. But, yeah, everybody's going to be different, and there'll be a lot of rumors and innuendos and all kinds of stuff out there. We'll see how it shakes out. Yep. Let's go through some of these teams and just talk about the optics of it and what we like about the situations or not.

I've actually put together a little table here showing how old each team starters are and each side of the ball. Kind of interesting when you're walking into these situations. We'll start with the Arizona Cardinals. They have fired Steve Kime, their GM, and their head coach. Cliff Kingsbury both got extensions before the season, along with quarterback Kyler Murray, who's out with a torn ACL and, of course, the whole thing with his contract. There's a lot surrounding that job. One of the things we've kind of heard is that, and this would make sense from a cost standpoint,

surely would be to move Vance Joseph from de-coordinator into the head coach role. I thought it was kind of interesting on hard knocks. They were really featuring him last week. maybe that was as a, you know, a setup for what's to come. We'll see. We've heard them mentioned with Sean Payton, don't buy that. What do you think in terms of who would make sense? I think we had talked about maybe an offensive coach, even though that's what they're firing, thought of Ben Johnson, you might have mentioned or we'd talked about Lincoln Riley before. I'm just not sure what the best path forward is for them. Yeah, I think you're right. I think

it maybe comes down to finances. You know, this team has, when Michael, his dad was in charge, always been one that was cognizant of finances and really wasn't willing to, let me say, spend like some other teams had. And so I think Michael has done a pretty good job of deflecting that criticism and taking a different path. He obviously paid Steve Kime. He paid Cliff Kingsbury, a lot of money, and not to mention paying Kyler Murray all in this offseason. So he is on the hook for a ton of money. I would hope that further decisions aren't just financial because he is paying these other guys to go on the cheap, that would be a mistake, in my opinion.

I think they need to go hire the best GM they can find and the best coach they can find. Let's face it, these franchise make a lot of money. So to ride off, you know, whatever it is, a few million here, a few men in there is not going to make a break Mike Bidwell. So I would hope he would, if he finds that Vance Joseph is the best guy for the job, I get it. I think they've got to be a little careful in what kind of offense they install, what that side of the building does. mainly because Kyler Murray, in my opinion, doesn't just flow naturally with any offense that they bring in.

So they're going to have to be cognizant of that. Where that lends them, I don't know. You're right. I thought Lincoln Riley made a ton of sense. It's the same system. It's familiarity. You know how I feel about familiarity that had produced in the past, even if it's in college. I think there is some carryover in this case.

But to be honest with you, I don't think Lincoln Riley would ever leave USC for a job like this. So I think that's merely speculation. on our part and it may not work out, but it's sure one that I would pursue and at least make sure that door was shut before I did anything else if I was Michael Bidwell. The hard part is, Mike, and you know, Steve Kime's been his right-hand man for 15 years. I mean, he has been the sole really advisor to Michael on football issues for a long time and very well respected by Michael. So he doesn't have that guy riding shotgun anymore. So I don't know who's in Michael's ear. I don't know, I was impressed in the press conference the other day that he said all the right things.

He said he has some help coming. He says he has help with kind of a plan. So we'll see. I think it's a vital time for this franchise and it could go either way. Somehow they've got to have, I think, enough independence if they do stay the course with the people in the building. I think they need some independent eyes to help assess. Otherwise, they're going to be stuck right where they are having not changed enough.

Yep. And so the question that GM candidates will have going in there is, hey, do I have to keep on the two kind of the co-GMs, the co-interimms, the co-in interim GMs in Adrian Wilson? Because they have a lot of equity in the organization, a ring of honor member in Adrian Wilson. So if you're going in to take that type of a job as a GM candidate, you want to know that. Hey, and certainly if you're a head coach with any stature, you're going to want to know those things too. Well, yeah, I've been a part of two of those kind of searches, Mike, and I'll just share this quick. and I may have already done it. Once in Seattle, when we hired Mike Holborn from Green Bay, it had to be one of those situations where Mike was good with me because I was in place or I was going to be gone. There's no doubt. I had no doubt about that.

Same in Miami when the powers that be researched and interviewed coaches after Nick Sabin went to Alabama. I was not part of their initial interview of 10 or 12 coaches. And I was the sitting GM at the time. They had to make sure that those guys were okay with me or not. So it's a perilous time. It's a nervous time for those guys that are internally there. Who knows? That may be a determining factor in which coach they hire if Michael has a feeling that he wants to stick with the status quo in the front office.

This team, and we'll move on to Houston here in a second, but this team, to me, it's not as attractive of a landing spot. I would feel a little bit limited by the situation with Kyler Murray. They have the third oldest starters on offense. I'm excluding quarterbacks from these calculations because a 35-year-old one can be a great thing. Seventh-oldest starters overall, you know, you've got some guys coming off the roster like JJ Watt. You've made acquisitions and sort of patched it together. That's a tough spot to be in a little bit, I think, coming in. And none of these are going to be great situations, but there's some things you have to concern yourself with.

And to me, the Kyler Murray situation, just. is a turnoff. Yeah, I think you would have to have the ability to pivot on any of those situations to get somebody good and qualified from the outside, no doubt. And so that may be an albatross that they can't shake. I don't know the intricacies of Kyler Murray's contract, but like we said last week on the pod, I would want to know if there is a jumping off point at some point.

And I would also have a plan B when it comes to quarterbacks because the system that we may want to install and run might not fit a, you know, five, nine quarterback that is limited vision in the pocket. So he was Cliff's guy, and I understood why Cliff wanted him. And I just don't know if that carries over to all the schemes that people might just assume it does. Think about this, though. So you're committed now to Kyler Murray. You should never make your hire based on, never have to make your hire based on a player who might not even be that great.

Right. Think of that. You should be always trying to get the best coach you can get. who's going to be bigger than this. So if you go into this trying to make it work with a limited quarterback who they questioned his work ethic, obviously, by what they put in his contract, good luck, isn't that. Fatally flawed if you're going into it with that intent. That's why I question really the promotions of people within.

You know, I'm sure they were part of that. I agree with you. I think that would be a bad flaw if they limit it based on somebody's feeling on Kyler Murray. That's why I said you need to know the lynch pins in that contract structure to where you have to identify the jumping off points along the way if there are any. Yeah. And to me, that opens it up for a defensive coach or whatever because we can have an overall philosophy, find a coordinator to work with it and then move on from Carter Murray if you have to in a couple of years, try to get the most out of them. So we'll see on that. The Texans have requested interviews after filing Levy Smith with Shane

Steichen with Ben Johnson, D'Amico Ryan's. Jonathan Gannon is. Giro Evereaux, they're all between about 37 and 42 years old. Also, reportedly, they'll investigate Sean Payton. I say, yeah, right on that. How about you? Yeah, I totally agree. I think, again, they may be limited by what they've done in the past. I mean, you're talking about a franchise now that's going to have its fourth head coach in four years.

I mean, if you wrote a book on how to screw up a franchise, that would probably not be included as a chapter, but it's because it's so far-fetched that nobody believes that could be the case. You know, it's crazy. So yes, these are all young, innovative, somewhat inexperienced coaches. Now I know Shane has been around a while. I don't know what their plan is. I either think they're going against the grain in that David Cully and Lovie Smith were two older gentlemen who had been experienced and had been around. And now they're pivoting to the opposite end, which sometimes happens in hiring cycles. And you and I have talked about that. Now we're going to go with a young guy with no experience. Or they're hiring more of the same in that Nick Casario is going to have his thumb on these young guys. And yeah, you can say they're going to be his partner, but Nick's going to carry the hammer for the most part. And they're going to kind of do as a team building exercise what Nick wants to do and do it the Patriot way. 2018, about this time, they hired Brian Gain as their GM. 2019 in the spring, they hired Jack Easterby.

2020 in January, they named Bill O'Brien, the GM. 2021 in January they named Nick Casario the GM. 2021 also that year they hired David Coley. This time last year they fired Coley. Then during this last season after hiring Levy Smith, Jack Easterby leaves. Now we're firing Levy Smith again. So I don't know how if I was advising a client who was going to go interview there.

I mean, you say be careful. I mean, it almost puts them in position to go after guys who aren't going to get a job somewhere else, right? And it kind of looked like from the outside that that's how they got there the last two hires, you know, because their process was all over the place. Nobody could figure out what they were doing for sure. I agree with you. I think, and everybody always says, well, you can't take that job because it's a bad job.

And I always say, well, there's only 32 of them. Yeah. So you're going to have to take a bad job because that's why it's open. I think in this case, Mike, it might just be where I might want to stay away. like you said, if I was a client or had clients and I was an agent of a young coach like this, I don't know. It might be a death sentence. It's just a struggle, you know?

I don't know what pieces can I say I can hang my hat on. If all this has happened, what do they say? History is the best indicator of the future. I just don't know how I would feel good about it other than, yeah, I'd be going to the bank and depositing a pretty good check every two weeks as opposed to being a coordinator somewhere else. I would be definitely careful here. Yeah, I don't know what they've been doing the last couple of. years, what they're set up for.

Usually, you can see what a team's plan is. I can't see it. So not sure what's going on there. The Broncos are very interesting. They did a Zoom interview with Jim Harbaugh. I'd love to have a recording of that. They have set up something with Sean Peyton. We'll talk about Harbaugh here. I wrote about him on Monday.

They requested Demico Ryan's, Dan Quinn, Rahim Morris. They had Jim Caldwell and David Shaw, I believe, in the mix, interviewing both those guys at Stanford. had them, well, David Shaw, probably didn't have to fly in. Jim Caldwell surely did. We watched the press conference with the owner and the GM George Payton a while back. What do you make of what they're doing? I think some of their interviews are to check boxes, I'll be honest with you, and it's not anybody's fault. I just don't see how this group can't hire the most experienced, qualified guy they can, coming off where they have come with assistance, the last several,

several times, and especially last year in the Hackett debacle. So I think you're really realistically looking at Caldwell, you're looking at Harbaugh, you're looking at Payton. I'll be honest. I'd make the quickest and best deal I can with one of those three guys and move on. The worst thing, and I love David Shaw. He's a great guy. He's spent very little time in the NFL, and when he was really young, that just doesn't equate.

They can't hire an on-the-job training type guy, in my opinion. And that would be ludicrous. And I know NFL franchises do crazy things, but that seems to me like a no-brainer with those guys. And if not somebody with the ilk and experience and bios that those guys have, that's hard to find. But I think they've limited themselves. They have to do that. Okay. So let's stack.

And you'd put Dan Quinn in that bucket too, right, as an experienced guy as a coach. True. So let's stack these from a Broncos perspective. Okay. Let's stack Harbaugh, Peyton, Quinn, and Caldwell. Okay. The problem for me with Peyton is giving up all that compensation and complete authority to him. When you barely have a first round pick you got from Miami in the Bradley Chubb trade, how do you feel about compensation for a coach? It is a long-term thing. Hopefully these guys will transcend any one pick. But if it's the Gruden package with a couple of ones, I don't like it.

I don't like the structure and having to give up. The compensation is one thing, but giving up all the structure and the other power to be, I think is potentially a problem. And so if that's part of it, if that's what Sean Payton has to have, then I don't think that's the route to go. But if he were the, if he were the coach of choice, and if I had to give up a first and a third to get him and he was clearly the best, I'd have no problem giving that up. I wouldn't normally say that, but I think some of these franchises have to do what they have to do to get the best coach. Now, you just painted the picture of all the other things, that's another story. I just, I don't know if Sean would be happy unless he had all that other stuff.

Oh, yeah. So it may not make sense to them. And really, the process of, you know, going in the back door and reengineering, it might take us back to Dan Quinn. I don't know. You know, we were all together in Miami, George Payton, Dan Quinn. We were all together there. And I know those guys are close.

So I think that's possibly a connection that, you know, at some point, once the cowboy season, you know, winds down that that gets, those dots get connected. So to what degree is Russell Wilson a deterrent? Because I'm picturing internally, they put a lot of money into Russell Wilson. So are the owners who don't know, they're not evaluators, they're new to this whole game. Does George Payton or whoever, you know, probably George was instrumental in paying Russell Wilson, do you have to tell them, hey, look, let's all hack it. I mean, you know, this Russell Wilson guy is actually really good. And so now we've got to get, the right guy. So is that the sort of thing? Or I put it this way, how much is Russell Wilson a factor in someone even wanting to go there? Dan Quinn was with Russell Wilson in Seattle. That may not be good. I mean, he may know some of the things that we saw this year or just your basic evaluation of Russell Wilson. He doesn't look like he used to look. So is that a big problem if we have to tell the owners, you know, isn't that plausible, Randy, that the owners are being told or think that, hey, this Wilson investment is still going to

pay off. Well, it sure is because the GM should be the trusted advisor of these new owners at this point. So I don't know, you know, George has swung and missed on a couple of these big deals, and I don't know how he has explained those to the ownership, but that conversation is really important. And I don't know where they are in the Russell Wilson saga. I do know this. You can't hire a coach based on Russell Wilson, nor can you really allow him to be involved in the process. And I've heard, you know, some people say, well, you know, I'd like to be this or that and hear these candidates out. I don't think there's any way in hell I'd ever go that route. You've got to do what's right. And the owner has to be lockstep with George. So hopefully they are listening to

George for the most part. I think George has been through this. They interviewed a lot of people last year before these new owners came on board. If it was George's position to sign Hackett, then he probably has lost a little credibility there. I just don't know the dynamic of that relationship and maybe nobody does. Maybe it's still growing because these owners are so new. So it could be that they want to get the best guy and don't really care about the GM role and say, hey, it's worth it. Let's get Sean Payton. I don't know. I don't think Russell Wilson's contract, his ability. We can say on the outside that it's an anchor. I think it is what it is. And you have to have a plan B, much like in Kyler's case, you better have a plan B. Yeah, he's going to be on our team, but it doesn't mean we have to

roll him out there every week. We got to find some other options. And I think the new coach, his options might be a big criteria in who gets the job. So do you see a clear, you know, if you were just picking which one of those guys between Harbaugh and Peyton and Quinn and Caldwell would be best for the Broncos. Is it easy just from afar? Or do you have an opinion? Well, none of these are easy decisions because you don't know what criteria they have. We set our own criteria on the outside. But for my money, I would definitely try to make the Sean Payton deal work. I think Sean's going to have options. So I just don't know how quickly that would come together. But I do know this. Dan Quinn is a good coach. I do think he will end up somewhere this year.

And I think his relationship with George will matter at the end of the day. Whether George can sell that to the owner, I don't know. I've been a part of searches before where initially ownership maybe pushes back on a particular candidate. But when you're in the middle of the process and after you get done and reassess, a lot of times they will acquiesce if you believe in it that they trust you as a GM or the decision maker to go with your gut. And my guess is if they've, if they're going to keep George and if he's been through this to this point, they're going to still trust his advice. And so hopefully for his sake, he gets this one right. Because it, as we, as we pointed out many times, two swings in the

same year is rare. The owner, though, already said. the next coach will report directly to the owner. So that was a little bit of a blow. I took that as, and I don't, I'm not disagreeing with you, Mike, but I took that as it's an option. I didn't say, I didn't take it as that is a fact and that's the way it's going to be. Maybe it will be. Yeah.

I just felt like they had to leave that door open for a shot. Yeah. They had, they were signaling. They were signaling to those big guys. Hey, don't, don't write us off. You can come in here and we can give you. That was a message, at least in my interpretation. Yeah.

Yeah. Absolutely. So to me, the Quinn thinks. So if that's the natural one that Peyton want to steer to, you'd have to ask, okay, where, how influential is George at this point? And then number two, the big thing to me is what does Dan Quinn think of the situation there, including with Russell Wilson? And what options he has? Yeah. And you're, because you're going to be with Russell Wilson for probably one to two more years.

And you may be able to get another option, but you're going to have to deal with that. And it was not, it was not all Nathaniel Hackett this year. I'm sorry. I know he was inexperienced. we saw Russell Wilson too. Yeah. That's why I think the plan B is part of the interview process has to be big. What are you going to do?

We do have a first round pick. We have a couple picks that maybe we acquire a young guy. And at some point, and I'm not saying right off the bat, but Russell does what he did last year and struggles with the new offensive system. Guess what? He's going to be standing over on the sideline and someone else is going to be playing and we'll sort out the exit plan later. But they can't just go blindly like they did last year and say it's all about Russell.

Yep, Denver, by the way, not counting quarterback's fourth oldest starters in the league, ninth oldest on offense, fifth on defense. We'll see they have a nice system on defense there that's been good with Vic Fangio and then another sort of Fangio guy in Gero Evereaux. So we'll see if Dan Quinn goes in there, then you're starting with a new system as well. Let's talk about the Carolina Panthers, who are apparently not in on Harbaugh. They'll consider Steve Wilkes, who by all accounts, did a nice job down the stretch as the interim coach. Frank Wright could be in the picture there, I think Caldwell.

is all so interviewing. When I see Reich and Caldwell, I see sort of maybe voices of reason, certainly a positive guy in Frank Reich. What do you see? What do you think of the job? Anything else? Well, what I see is a list that may be advised by Bill Pollan, who actually lives in Charlotte, who they have connections to these guys, whether it's Jim Caldwell or Frank Reich or any of these new names to appear. Now, I don't know that for a fact.

just seep, I think that's seeping in here a little bit. And I also think that David Tepper feels pretty good about Scott Fitter, who's GM. So a restructuring of a front office might happen with one of these bigger fish. And I'm not sure that that's necessarily what Tepper wants. So the names we've seen connected to it all would not require a front office restructure. I think Steve Wilkes, and we've talked about it, did a great job. I'll be honest with you. I think he's proven to be a a viable candidate in a couple places. If you give him the right people around him and a chance, I think he could be a really good NFL head coach. So Frank Reich obviously goes way back with Bill Polion and not that Bill's involved in hire in this, but has skins on the wall. We saw what happened

in Indy after he left. Jim Caldwell has proved to be a successful coach in the league, lastly with Detroit. I think he brings a certain, like you said, calmness, level-headed approach. So I think these guys are good candidates that they're talking to. How it works out in the end, I don't know. You know, don't forget, David Teper's paying a head coach a lot of money still for a couple more years in Matt Ruhle. Yeah, you know, Caldwell is really interesting to me.

When the Packers were hiring Matt LaFleur, I thought I would have liked Caldwell there. I was just looking at what they needed at that. time coming off of McCarthy. I've always really liked Jim Caldwell. Yeah, I agree. Now, the supposed knock on Caldwell is, wow, he's 67 years old. And we're talking about, you know, Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll and these types of guys doing fine. I would rather have a guy who's older than a guy who doesn't know what he's doing. And it's really, you know what I mean? It's really, really overly young. Where are you in that with Caldwell? He was with Miami, and I don't know what happened. He stepped away or whatever. I don't know.

know of any health type of issues, but I just really liked how he's handled things. And I don't know that he's being from the outside perceived as a serious candidate. I don't know if he is one. I just kind of always liked him. What do you think? Yeah, very much. So I like his demeanor. He's a class guy. He's a first class communicator with players. I think players love him because he's a straight shooter. There's no agenda. There's no ulterior motives with the way he operates. I think him and Scott Fitter would be excellent. I think he's a team player as well and works together. But I know Frank, Frank is as well,

if these are truly a candidates. I spent time with Frank in San Diego on our same staff. I like Frank a lot. I just think it's whatever one they pick, two heads are better than one. I think Scott will fit good with them. Dan Morgan is the assistant GM

who I know and is probably ready to have his own gig at some point. So they have some good parts in place there. I think a complete restructure with the Sean Payton, although it sounds exciting to the fans, I'm not sure. I don't know that they can afford to give up what they want.

And plus it's the Saints. I don't know that the Saints would allow that. They may ask more. Yeah, they may ask more from Carolina because of they're in the division. So I don't know if those dots can get connected. You know, maybe Jim Harbaugh, but I think Jim Harbaugh is headed for other places, to be honest with you. Oh, so where do you think he's headed? I don't know that he's going to get offered in the NFL.

What do you think? Well, if I was a betting man, I think Indianapolis might be his best spot. He is on the ring of honor in Indianapolis, and I think he will be in the mix there to be talked to. I do think him and Jim Mersey have a relationship, but I have no inside track that that's going to happen. I just think from an outsider looking, I can connect a few dots there. You know, that's really interesting to me on Harbaugh, and we'll talk about the Colts next, but I think Harbaugh, if you looked at last off season, remember he interviewed with Minnesota and turned them off. Yeah.

Okay. And it won't surprise me at all if that's what we hear in Denver. Because if you don't know Jim Harbaugh, then he can seem off pudding. He can seem like he's not, he can seem aloof. He's a different bird, no doubt. Yeah. But Eddie knows him. Yeah.

Yeah, that's what I mean. Those guys really know him. So I would think that Jim Harbaugh could be a bad interview, you know, to a different group. I know, and I've told this story on a couple radio shows this week, but the first time I met Jim Harbaugh and was going to sit down with them at a cafe somewhere. Shoot, I thought I was blowing the conversation. I mean, I thought, man, this is just not going good. Sometimes you talk to coaches or whatever they're preoccupied, but I just, and then I realized it wasn't me at all. It was just

him, you know, and he's just a little different, and that comes with it. And it doesn't mean it's bad, but I think when these people are, you know, uninitiated people, the Penners in Denver or whatever, are looking at 10 different candidates, there may not be an immediate connection or bond with Jim Harbaugh. I tend to agree with that, and that's a great assessment. I agree. I think you're right. His awkwardness may be a better fit for Jim Ursa who knows him and has been around him for a long time. Totally, yeah, because he already knows what you're getting and that's fine. That's just Jim Harbaugh. It's not personal. He's not being that way to you. He's just being Jim. And my guess is Chris Ballard has a relationship with him too because Chris Ballard came

up on the college side, which meant he was making visits to wherever Jim was for years and probably has a relationship with him. I think he does. I think I've heard that he does. Yeah. So those would be, that's interesting. On Carolina, two starters who will be 30 years older, older in September. Arizona has 15.

Denver has 11. That's a big difference. You know, Carolina had the second youngest offensive starter, six youngest on defense. There's some real pieces there, too, Randy. The pass rusher, there's some corner, you know, talent there. the offensive line looks pretty good. And you're in a division, which all this stuff can change overnight. So this isn't a reason why you'd go to someplace.

But, you know, there's no Mahomes or Josh Allen or Burrow in the NFC South. It's a pretty good place to go into with an owner who's got deep pockets. And I'm sure David Tepper has his own owner idiosyncrasies, but guess what they all do. Yeah. Yeah. I've seen it and heard it that David Tepper's personality is a negative. I don't buy that, Mike. I think he's an aggressive owner who wants to win, who if you're the right GM can manage it and use it in your way.

I like that. I mean, for years, I like Jerry Jones and the fact that I know he wanted to win worse than anything in the world. I'm not so sure where he is now in life, but I think Dave Tepper just wants to win. That's all he wants to do. So I think that's a positive. So I'm with you. I think the Carolina job is a good job. And the management of that is part of the job.

You know, if he's a little too pushy on this or that, you've got to earn that, you know, somehow be able to earn that, you know, credibility with him or show them, that sort of thing. We did already talk about the Colts and Harbaugh. They are interviewing their special teams coach above Ventron. They've requested Shane Steichen, Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn, Rahim Morris. Man, after the year they've had, it may take someone who's a little out there and has a relationship with Jim Ursa to want to go there, right? Because I laugh at this sometimes, you know, when people try to pick, when people try to be select. in this business. And I've mentioned this before. But if, you know, Chris Ballard and

George Payton were two guys who sort of were perceived as being selective in the places they went. And, you know, Ballard ends up going to India. It's great. You got luck. Well, five years later, luck's retired for two years and we're bringing in Jeff Saturday and people on the staff are turning down the coordinator job. Yeah. That's how fast things change in the league. George Peyton goes to Denver. It's been a flagship franchise. Well, it was an absolute horror show this year. So you can't always count on even good places being bad, but a lot of times you can count on bad places staying bad. Is India a bad place to you now? I would say it's not a bad place, but it is a different in that you would have to have an understanding with Jim Ursay in that, you know, we all know

he's very reactive, right? He may blow up the building today and we have no place to meet tomorrow, but, you know, and so you just never know with him. You would want to have some sense of, and maybe you get that through Chris Ballard because Chris is a very even keel really good person. You'd have to trust that he can handle some of this. I think the biggest thing about Indianapolis to me that has a negative in the back of my mind, a negative thought is this. Before Frank Wright was fired, Jim Mersey was allowing Jeff Saturday to watch practice tape the whole time and be an advisor to him. That really has bothered me the whole time, Mike. I just can't understand that. I think that. I think that. That is, it's just wrong.

I didn't think, I thought he's going behind Frank Reich's back to do this. If I had a question about practice, I'd go right in Frank Reich's office and ask him about it. He's your guy. He's the guy you're paying. I surely would not take advice from somebody on the outside who knows nothing really about Frank Reich's operation. I just, that has set me sideways with me ever since I heard that. And maybe it was just after Jeff got the job. So I just didn't like that.

Does that type of stuff go on? I mean, that's, that seems like a real breach. It did there, and maybe it does. I'd never been a part of that, but it really bothered me. And I've asked a few head coaches here or there about it, and everyone is shaking his head and agrees with me that, yeah, that would be a problem, you know. So that part is that sneakiness, that kind of backhanded, you know, evaluating of your people in your own chair.

Everybody says, well, the owner can do whatever he wants. He can. That's for sure. He or she can. But that to me is kind of sending the wrong message to the people. who have those jobs. No doubt about it. You know, that place was pretty stable for a long time,

but that's because of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. And Bill Polion. He didn't really give a rats, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah. I'd love to see, I'd love to see, or say, try to pull these things with Bill in there. Yeah.

Might have been a fight. Yeah. So we've got to talk about the Rams, too. They have not, you know, they're not moving on from Sean McVeigh. He may move on from them. I thought it was interesting, Randy, when we were talking off the air, off the recording, you had said that you see Sean Payton and Sean McVeigh elaborate.

Yeah, I mean, they're opposites at one end, but they're similar in the same end, in that they both have type A personality for me. You know, they're in charge of everything. They want to be involved in every little thing. They're reading the ticker when you're out to dinner to make sure something hasn't happened that might affect them, you know. They just can't get away from it. they can't relax, they can't not be in the middle of stirring stuff up.

And I understand why Sean stepped away. And I guess I understand Sean Payton stepped away and why McVeigh might. But at the same time, these personalities, these push, push, push. And I wrote about this for Mueller football today in my blog. This kind of put these two franchises in peril. The hurry up, hurry up, hurry up, we got to have this guy. that guy, we got to pay this guy, we got to pay that guy. And guess what they've left a wake of no draft picks, high cap dollars? They've left these franchises, I think, in a tough

spot. And so, again, I understand why they're stepping away, but at the same time, and again, we're assuming that Sean McVeigh may, but I just think it leaves the franchise holding a bag that they helped cause problems in the first place. I'm not using the right words. You can probably explain it better, but I think people understand what I'm saying. Well, they went along in a enabled him. And then the minute when the bill comes due, he's like, hey, I'm going to be out of town, you know. Yeah. Sorry. I got to go to the bathroom when it comes time to pay the bill. Yeah. I'm not at the table, you know? Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. And everybody else is looking for their pocket. You know, whoa, whoa, whoa, where's wrong? Where'd he go? He's got a call. Yeah, he's out of

call. He's the one that ordered to crab legs, you know? What the hell? So that's kind of what it's like, he's leaving everybody else to pay the bill. And he's been using a credit card forever, and he's raised up the, the limit and now we got to pay cash to get out of it and he's nowhere to be found. Yeah, yeah, you know, and he's even letting his assistants look for jobs. Who does that when they're going to return to the team? Right. But I will say this in, in, in, it's not his defense, but his, his staff has had a great high rate of turnover the last five years.

I mean, he's let guys walk out for, for lateral moves in the past. So I don't know that that is something new. Yeah. So, but I understand it. If, if, if I, if I, if, if I, if I would. was the GM, I would say, what the hell, just make up your mind. You've got everybody running and going and running around and we need some stability here. And that's definitely not a directive that lends itself to any stability at all. Yeah, one of the things I wrote in my Monday column watching Sean McVeigh at the

end of their loss to the Seahawks was here he is, you know, Haggard at age 36, trudging out after the game to shake hands with the opposing coach who happens to be 71-year-old Pete Carroll, who's, you know, I think I said the only question in his mind waffling in the morning is whether to jog or skip from the car to the office, right? Yeah. Zippity-dudaw. Yeah. It's just so fun that you almost can't believe that it's real, you know. Really, that's why when the Seacques hired Pete Carroll, I kind of rolled my eyes because I didn't know Pete Carroll. I thought, ah, rah, raw stuff. No, no, he believes it. It actually works for him. He actually does have the energy, you know, somehow, some way.

And everybody's different, but I know you had some, you had some perspective on this as well as far as the gap here. I mean, you're just talking about opposite ends of the generational spectrum, right? You're talking about a five-year head coach who's 36 years old, who's coming off a Super Bowl championship and ends up, what were they, five and 12 or something like that? Yeah, yeah. And he's wanting to run away to recharge. At the same time, Bill Belichick, 71 years old, has won. on how many Super Bowl, six, seven. He's welcoming a chance to rebuild the Patriots

and has been through this many times, and it's not killing him, trust me. So different ends of the spectrum. I'm not saying who's right or wrong, but there is some generations or a couple of them in between there that it just tells you kind of what we're dealing with. It is, you know, and yet over the years,

we saw John Madden walk away after 10 years, you know, and he, of course, he was going back and forth with Al Davis. I'm sure that would put some stresses on him. I mean, Dick Vermeal was somebody who kind of burned out and ended up coming back. It was a very emotional person, you know. So I don't know.

I can't imagine that Sean McVeigh is done coaching. Maybe he can get traded somewhere and give some of those draft picks back to the Rams because they need them. If he walks out on a contract, that's going to be the case because he's still an employee of the Rams. So maybe he'll be two years from now. This year is Sean Payton. Who knows? Or he could do like Digfer Meal, go do TV for how long, 15, 20 years? I don't know.

Gruden did the same thing. So, you know, I don't know how it's going to work out. I find it just almost crazy that a guy walks away at age 36 after five years beat down. Everybody does their job different, I guess, but some of us are lifers and find a way to manage tough, tough situations a little better than others. I would think so, too. You know, I guess it is a situation of having options, too. I guess he can, you know, maybe he, you know, maybe he can get a huge deal in TV. You're right, though.

I think most people have traditionally just assumed that they're a coach and this is what they do. And this is what they want to do. And you want to do it if it's tough times, which this isn't that tough of times. I mean, they were five and 12. Trust me. Yeah, this is really. Go one in 15 one year and then come back to me with that. And you're at an organization that's been willing to do everything you wanted to do.

And sure, they may have a lean year too. But I think the rebuild part's kind of fun, isn't it? My guess is he's not been told no at all since he's got the job. So there are a lot of franchises that would put up hurdles, and I don't think the Rams are one of them. It seems to me like they've been a place that says, yeah, go ahead. Yep, yep, yep. We're good with that. Maybe they're out of things they can say yes to at this point, though.

They've used all the resources. I don't know what else you can do. And by the way, Matthew Stafford can trigger a $50 million guarantee here just by sticking around. So that is an interesting situation, too, given his health, their ability to protect him, the style of offense, all of those things. So you surely can't blame, you can't blame management or ownership that they haven't come through with everything that Sean wanted. That's for sure. Yeah, no doubt. I mean, the minute he got there, they've done things his way.

And it's worked well. Yep. One bump in the road. I was actually looking at it, you know, you know who had an even higher winning percentage through his first five years as the Rams coach and got fired was Chuck Knox. Really? It's unbelievable. If you go back to the 70s, he was like, he was winning like 80% of his games. They fired him.

That's crazy. the league. Okay, you had put it down, maybe talk about some of these young quarterbacks in the playoffs. Isn't that that something between Brock Purdy, Jalen Hertz, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Skyler Thompson. I mean, I had to almost look to get Skyler's first name again because he hasn't even been on our radar. But that's pretty interesting to have these sorts of guys. What comes to mind for you? Well, you're the historian, so I don't know when or if this has ever happened, but there is a good group of young guns and I think you got to put Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Jalen Hertz in that boat as well. And of course, not the other than the spectrum you have here, you know, Mahomes and Josh Allen

seemed like old-timers compared to these guys. But yeah, I mean, I went back and looked at some stuff on these guys. We've chronicled what we thought of Brock Purdy throughout his process. He's definitely improved. I don't think to this day, Kyle Shanahan is changing the way he calls plays just because of Brock Purdy. And that's really what dictates to me if a quarterback is limiting you is how the, how the O.C. or the head coach calls the game. I saw Kyle Shanahan calling about whatever he wants with Brock Purdy now, and so I don't think he's holding him back at all. I don't think the same for Kyler Thompson. I think people are trying to draw parallels with those two. Kyler Thompson's arm is shaky at times. I think Mike McDaniel has to

change some things that he does. I don't think those deep receivers are quite as effective. Even the accuracy of some of Kyler or Skyler Thompson's throws aren't what Tua could have. But so I think, again, Miami's probably feeling the effects of having no quarterback more than these other guys. And I'll say this, the progress that Trevor Lawrence has made this year with Jacksonville is real. He has progressed.

But he did nothing to help them win against the Titans last week. Oh, my gosh. I was worried for. I was worried for him as well. So I don't think he's ready for prime time yet. He may have drawn a good round, first round game with the Chargers, but he's not quite there yet. So I'm kind of anxious to see how that goes when the pressure gets ratcheted up.

The other two guys, Daniel Jones, I feel good about his demeanor gives me, you know, no pause at all. He's such, he's been through so much, you know, dealing with New York and the problems and there's changes that they've had. And you know how I feel about Jalen Hertz. I think we were on the Jalen Hertz bandwagon, really one of the first before, you know, people have found him to be an MVP prospect. So I think it's a interesting group.

I really want to see how Skyler Thompson does, but more than anything, Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence to me have a chance to really step up and be something special in these playoffs because let's face it, this is where careers can get made and can get ruined because the price to play, the ante goes up. And I did see a lot of interesting things there that somewhat inconsistent, probably the most consistent of the bunch is Purdy. And that even includes Lawrence. Yeah. Yeah, I think that is a great way to look at it, how much has really changed for the 49ers.

And if you took off your glasses and your vision was a little bit blurry when you watched the film, what you're saying is you wouldn't necessarily see a difference. You might think it was Grappolo or whatever they were doing. Does he bring anything that Grappalo doesn't have? Obviously, not an experience, but is there anything that he does? you know, that you like even better than Jimmy. Well, I haven't seen the propensity to make a crazy throw. And although he has been protected pretty good, I've yet really to see him flustered. And we've seen Jimmy get flustered a time or two when people come after him.

I think Brock Purdy has handled that really good. Now, they've got a good group around him, like we continually say. But I haven't seen that fluster late in the down. Let's see the down takes five or six seconds. In second four or five, he still has. poised to make the right throw. So I see a much mature beyond a rookie quarterback in Brock Purdy. So I really don't have many doubts. I don't think they've changed a lot to answer your question. So he has five starts. They've averaged 33.6 per games on offense. So offensive scoring in those

games, that's hard to do. I know they have a good defense. Maybe they get some short fields or this and that. But 33.6 points is really amazing over even just five games. That's a lot of games to be at that average. He has 11 touchdown passes, two interceptions, average, an almost nine yards per passive temp, which historically would be like a Kurt Warner type season, you know, back in the Mike Martz era, he's completing 69%. You know, really, really some good stuff there. I wanted to come back to Trevor Lawrence one time because it was disappointing to watch how they almost blew that game.

But that game really was a playoff game for them, Randy. It was winning in. And I think the pressure was that. So my hope for them would be that they got the jitters out of them a little bit, that maybe they can exhale and come into this game this week against an opponent. in the chargers that they beat 38 to 10 and maybe be a little more relaxed, maybe be a little free. When he missed the guy in the end zone and threw it in the stands, that was just, that's not the type of, I know he does have an occasional miss like that, but that was just like, that had to be

a nervous throw, didn't it? Well, he had some other misses too that would lend me to believe that he's not quite ready for prime time either. And we all see the big arm. We see the flashes. He can make, I will say, most of the throws. But there are some things with touch like the one in the end zone you're talking about where sometimes I think it's the hardest throw for a quarterback is to throw over under coverage and drop it in. That's hard. And his release isn't wristy. And most of the time when a quarterback really is good at throwing over undercoverage, not to get too technical, but to drop it in a bucket, you've got to have a little wrist on that throw.

And he's more of an arm, more of a slinger. I think he's more of a thrower still than an NFL passers. So there's some, there's some, you know, room for improvement there. So I don't know if I'm making sense. No, it is. Here's why that makes such great sense. So when I do the quarterback tiers thing every offseason and talk to 50 people in the league, you know, about all the quarterbacks, that was one of the things about Lawrence was that not a natural throwler and kind of stiff-risted.

And I remember when I, you know, wrote about that part, there were some people, what do you mean, stiff-risted, but that's exactly what you're talking about. There's kind of a, there's kind of a- Almost a slinger and not able to. Like, if you shoot a basketball, Mike, your follow-through with your wrist is, what you want, right? And sometimes a passer, a pure NFL passer, has that wrist motion. Yes.

You don't see that with Lawrence at all. It's more of a, like you said, a stiff-risted, throw it on a line, and that doesn't work out well when there's a guy between me and my target. It's kind of the difference between a pitcher who has three really good pitches and a guy who has six, right? Yeah. And some of those. And so maybe that is ultimately the thing that possibly keeps him from going to the absolute

the highest level, but maybe he's still going to be really good. Is that fair? Yeah, I think he still has all the skill set that you want, and that's how you draw him up. This kid is a phenomenal athlete. He's a big kid. And he can, that's why I said, make 90% of the throws. There's just a little consistency that's still lacking. And you can forget last year. That was a shit show. We can forget everything that he did last year. So the development is still on the learning curve. But there's some throws that I see that he struggles with that he needs an off season of, quarterback school where you work on all of that throwing into a net and throwing into garbage cans and like I said dropping bombs down smokestacks from you know 20 yards 30 yards 40 yards because it

comes down with a different trajectory when you can get that wrist involved with your release yes all right before we get to the GM notebook always a highlight of the show and get into our picks which you got to have your wallet ready because I know you're going to really want to take what we say to the bank. I wanted to hit on the lions winning at Green Bay, Randy, because that was an awesome win. For wins that don't get you in the playoffs, that was really cool. And, you know, they started one in six, finished nine and eight, knock out Aaron Rogers. I loved before the game that one of their safeties kind of called out Rogers. So this guy doesn't respect us. And the way he talks about us, I love that. It was poking the bear. We got a couple dome teams coming

in here. Yeah. Yeah. It was poking the bear, though. But in a way, that like, hey, we're not afraid. It's not like Rogers is playing the way. Their offense isn't what it was when they were Jordy Nelson and everybody all over the place and scoring 35 points a game. They're not the same Packers. So he said it. And then they went out there and did it. And then, you know, the locker room was awesome.

Shoot, it was just a wonderful win for them for a quote unquote meaningless win. And it launches you into the off season sort of able to say, hey, we're close and now we just pick up where we left off even Dan Campbell said in the future we've got to make this be all roads go through Detroit and and you know and in the back of my mind I'm thinking you know it doesn't always work that way sometimes you think that you've made these incremental steps but they still have issues on defense or maybe their offensive coordinator leaves every year's different Randy and in the back of my mind I wondered are they the classic sort of team that's going to be saying. seven and ten next year and everyone's going to wonder what happened. And really, that's not much different than what they are now. So where are you at on this? What do you think? There's a fine line for sure. And you bring up a great point. I do think that Dan Campbell's messaging after the game was really to his own locker room. He wants them confident. He wants them to think they're unbeatable. He wants them to think people have to come through Detroit. I think Dan also is realistic enough to know that

they're not one or two players away. But that's not something he needs to bring up right now. That's something that they will do behind closed doors and continue to have their foot on the pedal, I think to continue to replenish that defense because they don't have the personnel yet. What Aaron Glenn did with what he has is remarkable, but they still have a ways to go to get better in that regard. Now, they found a couple of young players that they weren't sure they had through people getting hurt, which is always a plus. But I've been part of those teams that, when we went to New Orleans, we won the division

the first year, we came back at 6 and 10 the next year too, because you have a different set of circumstances. You have a different bunch of hurdles to overcome. And sometimes if you're not completely focused, you think you're better than you are. That's a problem. So the sophomore jinx is for real. I don't, I'm not saying they're going to have one, but I think they've got to be careful in how they go forward because they did get enough answers to where I think they're headed in the right direction, but they need to keep their foot on the pedal because they've got to continue to make more changes. This is not a team, in my opinion. They didn't make the playoffs, but it's not a team that's ready to make a deep playoff run yet.

I love the demeanor. I love their toughness. I love the bravado, like you said, of going into Lambo and poking the bear and not really caring. I think sometimes these young teams are better off not knowing what they don't know, you know. Yeah. And that was an example of that. So I thought, you know, when they were one and six and reeling and we said, hey, we've got to see some results. And I thought we were somewhat critical of Aaron Glenn.

And then you made a comment during that, hey, you know, pretty good job with what he did. I'd love for you to follow up on that and just where do you feel like they're at with Glenn and the scheme and just the way they're playing. Are you okay with that and feel good about it now, despite the really shaky start especially? Well, I see progress. I don't know the intricacies of it, but my guess is that his sales job or his teaching methods kind of changed and they started to get through to these players. The thing you've got to remember is even with Aaron Glenn, he's never been a defense coordinator until he got to Detroit. So there's a learning curve for him, too. He has on the job training as well.

And he probably felt better about his messaging, his schemes, his game plans, and sold them better as well. Now, maybe they changed some things on defense. I think they did fire a coach or two on that side of the ball during this process. So that's not to say it's those coaches fault by any means. I know Aaron Glenn. I like him. I know he's very highly thought of with the Saints organization as well because he was there. And that's why Dan brought him with him.

So he's been around enough to know that. You know, it's not always going to be easy. And I think he will stick to it. I think you saw his reaction on the sidelines during that game. He was into it and excited. And I love to see that, especially from a coach like that, who has been really embattled. I know for a fact that they were considering making changes at times during this season. So for him to come back from that, come back from the brink to kind of reestablish himself,

I think Dan Campbell will appreciate that. I think they still have a ways to go and everybody understands that. but it is what it is with these young guys, and you've got to support them and get through this season, but they did more than that. They improved. So my guess is it got simpler. Sometimes young coaches have a tendency to overcoach

and put so many things in that nobody knows from day to day what they're expected to do. And I always think it's best when you dial it back. And this team seemed to play a little faster and a little more mentally free in the second half of the season. So maybe he dialed back the amount of terminology, the amount of adjustments, the amount of game plan scheming that he did to allow this group to feel more comfortable. Yep. And Aidan Hutchinson looked like a pretty good pick too, right? Oh, no doubt. Yes.

Yeah, that's nice when you hit on that guy and he's going to be a difference maker. What do you got in the GM notebook, which I tried to write in last week. I'm not allowed to. You have my permission to jump in there any time you want. Trust me. The big thing for me, and I saw a lot of stuff this week on the Bears ending up with the pick. criticism of, for one, Lovie Smith, which I think he did the right thing by winning the game. There's nobody that's worth tanking for in this draft, in my opinion. And I've seen a lot of stuff come out on Bryce Young, the quarterback from Alabama, as everybody's answer and the savior, and this guy might be the greatest thing ever.

And here's the thing. All these guys that say that, and I just chuckle, because there's people that think they're good evaluators, and they probably are for the most part. but most have not sat in the chair of deciding who you're going to pick with a first-round pick and pay millions and millions of dollars to. Trust me, I would say the vast majority of GMs and NFL football people are not looking for 510, 185-pound quarterbacks. They're not.

So if you're going to sway them out, it's like Ryan Poles said in his interview yesterday or whenever it was, he said, somebody's going to have to really knock my socks off to make me be interested when we have Justin Fields sitting here. with all the skills that he has. So I don't see that as Bryce Young. And I heard guys on the mothership station coming out with some of this stuff. And I just shook my head. I just can't believe it.

I just, what? And I looked at tape. I've tried to dig into the Bryce Young stuff. He is a great kid. And I know he won the Heisman and all that stuff. But I got news for you. Being a good college player does not equate to being a good NFL player. And the systems, the differences are totally completely opposite.

So it is a big leap of faith. And I just, I'm not sure he'd be in my top 10. That's all I'm saying. In the GM notebook portion right now, maybe he sneaks in there at some point. But from what I've seen and I have studied film, not just watched on TV on him. Yeah. I'm sorry, but that's, that's a, that is a giant leap of faith that as a decision maker, I would really struggle to make. Especially if you've got a guy on your roster that you just took, you know.

Yes. You know, you would do that if it was John Elway coming out or if it was Peyton Manning coming. out or somebody who, Andrew Luck's coming out, but that's not what we're seeing. Just look at the measurable. It just makes me chuckle. Again, everybody will have durability concerns and everybody says, well, he's got big players in the SEC. It's not the same.

It's not the same game. It's not the same hash marks. This is a closer-knit game with bigger people that can run faster than any team in the SEC. So it is a big step up. And, you know, I'm not saying this kid won't be a player at some point. I just couldn't mortgage my future on a quarterback in that case. And it's always been the case in the NFL. Now, there has been some exceptions, but definitely more people have failed.

And the whole highway is littered with these small quarterbacks that, how's it going for Kyler? We've talked about that. How's it going for Baker? How's it? I mean, these are short, small guys. There's only occasionally a Drew Breeze or a Russell Wilson that comes out that defies all odds. And I'm not really to say this kid's ready for that for sure. But there's a lot of people who have staked their reputation on it.

So time will tell us. Oh, it'll all be forgotten in a year, you know. No, we went through this last year. How to go for Malik Willis this year? I mean, some of that stuff is crazy. And everybody's hid from evaluations on that last year. Oh, yeah. If you could get Malik Willis, then you could bring in Joshua Dobbs to start the important

games for you late in the year. Nothing against Bleak Willis. It's not his fault. No, it's not. They're saying, Kenny Pickett was the only guy you would take in the first round. And Bailey Zappi was the next guy for you, but not in the first round. Right. Okay.

And I'm not beating my chest. I'm just saying people need to understand the criteria that these NFL teams have. It's different from picking your fantasy football team. That's all. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So before we get to the final item in the GM notebook, because you mentioned the bears what to do with the first round pick, do you think there's going to be a big market to get up to one?

I do not. I don't see that. Normally that happens when quarterbacks are involved. I just don't see a quarterback that someone's going to go up to get. So it's not a, you know, a Carson Wince, Jared Gough type, when several teams wanted to go up for those. kind of guys. I just don't see that happening. Maybe a positioning for the quarterback from Kentucky who fits the criteria size, athleticism, that stuff, maybe. But I just don't see it. I don't think

anybody's going to trade up for Will Anderson or one of these other guys. I think they'll be more to sit tight and fill their needs. I think Chicago should play that card and maybe play it up a little bit by saying, hey, we might do this, we might do that. They've got to negotiate publicly. So we're going to hear a lot of things over the next couple months. We'll have plenty of time. to digest that. So you don't have a big problem with, I know you liked Levy going for two and all of that, which I'd love to have heard the headset talk with his GM who's on the headset during the games because maybe he wanted to have the first pick.

But for you, you don't see that as a big loss for the Texans. They're sitting at two and that's just fine. I think it's just fine. I really do. I don't think there's a guy that, we're going to tank for Tua? I mean, all this tanking stuff, it's just crazy. And I just don't see that happening in this case. Two is another big guy who's playing a lot, you know?

Yeah. I mean, you know, so I think you've got to be careful when you say the team needs to lose to get a higher draft pick. I guess people pick great players in the 15th slot, in the 18th slot. It is about evaluating and knowing what you're doing. I'll say that. Not about picking the five-star athlete out of a magazine, that's for sure. Yeah, absolutely. So what else you got in the GM notebook?

The only other one I had was, and I don't mean to pick on Brandon Staley, but the management of his team last week. What did you say? I said you can. It's okay. The management of his team in that game last week, Week 18, where he really didn't know who to play, who didn't play. I thought he was really smart. And he lets us all believe he's really smart, but he rolled out some of these guys that I could not have rolled out there in the situation they were in. And it was kind of a half-hearted, yeah, do we play him? And then we get Mike Williams hurt, who hadn't practiced now this week. So there's a lot of indecision with some of his decision-making.

I don't know whether his confidence is waned. I didn't hear as much about. his analytics background as there is now, as we've heard recently. But I just didn't like the way he played his players and put really his whole team in jeopardy. I mean, I couldn't see rolling out Justin Herbert ever, to be honest with you. Isn't that sort of thing, even if your coach has control over the 53 on game day, isn't that an organizational conversation? It definitely is. And I don't know where the guys would have weighed on. I weighed in on.

I'm sure John Spanos and Tom Palesco were involved in that. But it just the end result made me to shake my head. What are we doing? I wouldn't have played Echler. I wouldn't have played any of these guys that were, you know, his bell cows. Anybody who has a fantasy team would know who you're worried about getting hurt on that team. You would protect Mike Williams, Echler, right? And those are the guys, they're really important.

Those guys wouldn't smell the field. And they've all had various things. I mean, Herbert had broken ribs earlier or whatever, you know, and anything. He could hit his hand on a helmet in the game. Sometimes I think Brandon goes against the grain just to go against the grain. That's how I think it from the outside. He wants to prove that he's. And his explanation of it made no sense.

So I don't know. Just that one kind of rubbed me raw, you know. Yeah, he talked about the, oh, there's only, you know, whatever, 46 players or however many up on game day. And I went and looked at the Giants. The Giants had the same limits and they didn't play any of their starting receivers. And they don't have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen and those types of guys. They're playing with what we say neighbor kids. Yeah, they played Kenny Goliday the whole game, you know, because they, you know, how far has he fallen in the depth chart.

All right. Let's get to our picks. We were both 500 pickers last week. So you didn't lose too much money if you were with Sandow and Mueller last week. I lost with the Raiders taking nine. I just figured it might be closer than that. They'd done some decent things on offense, shows what I know. One with Houston getting two and a half against Indy.

Just figured two teams, I'll just take whoever gets the points. Worked out, Randy, you had Seattle who did win, but not by enough. And you won with Denver going against the Chargers, even though Brandon Staley tried to take your money by playing the starters. He tried. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. This week, I think we've only got the six games.

Let's just pick them all against the spread. Why don't you go first? I'll go first in the Saturday game, San Francisco and Seattle. I think San Francisco is just a way better team. Let's do it by game. Yeah, you go ahead and start with San Francisco, and then I'll do mine after years. The two seven seeds for me this year are on shaky ground.

You know, Miami has a negative point differential. Seattle is just, I don't think, as good and talented as a 49er team. who has won a whole bunch of games in a row. So for me, that was an easy one. I just think, I know it's a, what is it, a 10 point spread now? It's 10, yeah. That's a little concerning, but I think the 49ers will keep the hammer down. And just, it's about matchups, right?

Especially at this stage. I think the matchups favor the 49ers in most every way. Yeah, I would be more nervous taking Seattle and the points just because I agree. I feel like they're a ways away. and it's a great successful season to be 9 and 8. And to make the playoffs is a cherry on top of it. I mean, it really puts them over the top for where they were before the year with trading Russell Wilson. I mean, it's awesome.

But I just really think it ends here. And it was a miracle to me that they were 2113 against the 419th the last time when they played late in the year. That would have covered the 10-point spread. It felt like the 4-9 were up by three touchdowns. So maybe Pete Carroll can do that. And they've made some hay on special teams against the 4-9ers even this year, I believe. So that's maybe one way they can do it, but I'll sort of believe it when I see it. So I think we'll both have the 49ers give the points to take our chances, which is amazing

with Brutty strutting a quarterback, but that's where we're at. How about the Jacksonville game? This is a hard game for me, and I'm going to pick Jacksonville, but it would not shock me, especially after watching the tape and how Lawrence played last week. It would not shock me if the Chargers went down there and won the game. I just think they played earlier in the season, you know, in L.A. and Jacksonville blew their doors off. So there's a little revenge factor in there.

I think that always makes for an interesting rematch. I'm going to pick Jacksonville. I think the home crowd and the fact that they made party like it's 1999, which they were really good then. I think that all factors in. So I'm going to pick Jacksonville, but I'll be honest, I don't feel good about it because I think the Chargers have more than a fighting chance.

I do too. And if you would have asked me about this matchup before Jacksonville played Tennessee and told me that the Chargers are, favorite one. I'd take that to the bank and run. I think I would be all over the Jaguars then. They did shake me a little bit in the last game. And I'm hoping that that was their nerve-wracking playoff game, first time really in a game of real consequence. And that that was really almost a playoff game. By the way, against a division opponent, too, that really knows them well. And

you know, Vrabbles shoot. Vrabels, they were right there with Kansas City playing Malik Willis and you couldn't understand how. So that can happen in a game. like that. So I am going to trust Jacksonville. I'll take the point on that in case it's a one-point game, we get our money back. But I do think that they, between Lawrence, I think the receivers are pretty good. They've got some pass rush, the noise there. I'll bank on those things. The coach, Doug Peterson, has big game experience, and maybe they just get the jitters out last week. So we're both the same there, which is a little scary. The next game is Miami at Buffalo. Buffalo by 13.

I think we're both taking the bills and giving the points, right? Yeah, I'm going to take the bills. I think the emotional high that they'll be on this week will push them to, you know, no limits. Buffalo's one-seven straight. They've got a plus 169 point differential. Miami has a minus two point differential. So the other seventh seed, I don't, I think these seven seeds have kind of this limping in, to be honest with you. You know, the worst playoff team, as far as that point differential goes is Miami.

They're playing Skyler Thompson at quarterback. That's a bad recipe up in the cold in Buffalo. I just think it's too much. I would be shocked if they come out ahead. Yeah, me too. I think it's at least going to be a pull away in the second half game for Buffalo, but they may be up by quite a bit early. So we'll see on that one.

I think we have a difference of opinion on the Giants plus three at Minnesota. You're taking the Vikings. Why? I am taking them, and I happened to watch some of the Kirk Cousin stuff last week. I'm just convinced that they're a better team right now. I think they have a way to make things in a running game and a passing game. I think it's going to make the Giants defense spread very thin. I think they'll find a way to keep Kirk Cousins upright.

I'll be honest, I looked at the Cousins tape, like I said, he played pretty good last week. I think Kirk Cousins sometimes gets a wrap of not playing good in big games, and obviously this is a big game. but I just got a little confidence in them. I think they'll hold serve against the Giants this week. Yeah, okay. I will take the Giants and the points in this one. A little bit of concerns, not so much about Kirk Cousins, but the fact that the protection could be compromised with some of their issues up front.

And I think some quarterbacks, you know, that is certainly a knock on Cousins, is that he doesn't roll with the pressure as well as some others do. Maybe he can, you know, find some quick answers and burn them. But I don't feel. feel overly strong about it, but I'll just sort of take my chances with the Giants and three with the off chance they might win. And if they don't, maybe it's a close game. Maybe it's even a field goal game. And you come out even on that one. Cincinnati is minus seven against Baltimore. We're both going to take the Bengals on that one. What's your thinking? Yeah, I think that's an

easy one for me. Bengals are probably going to be playing a backup quarterback, maybe the third guy again. Cincinnati's one eight straight. I don't see that ending here. I think they will, even though their division games and sometimes there's no real advantage, no secrets, that's for sure. But I think Cincinnati's just got things rolling too good and I think they'll win their ninth straight. Oh, yeah.

And they just seem to get an edge to them. They sort of got the short end of the seating thing, which is just a weird thing that the league did. And there's no love lost between these two teams. And shoot, the quarterback situation in Baltimore is a real concern. Coming to this game, Lamar Jackson's not going to play. Backups got some issues. We'll see where that one goes, but I love Cincinnati in that one.

And then I think we have a difference of opinion, possibly, on Tampa Bay is plus 2.5, 2.5 points against Dalles. You're going to go with the Cowboys. I think I'm going to take the Bucks. What's your thinking? I just think Douse is a better team. I know that Tom Brady's 7 and O against Cowboys, but I just, I don't think Tampa Bay is a good team. I'll be honest with you. I think they have a lot of fingers to put in dikes to fill holes from their roster.

and it just hasn't happened for him. And I'm not saying the Cowboys are running on all cylinders because they have pressure in their own way on themselves. But I just think they're too good. I think they'll find a way to get enough points. I think DAC will play better. I'm going to pick the Cowboys just because I think they're a better team. So you said you think Dak will play better, but you've sort of been raising some concerns

about him over the second half of the season at least. And then last week, statistically, they had their second worst game since 2000 on offense. So that was alarming to me. I know Jacksonville shook our confidence a little. Why is this game not throw you off? Does it have more to do with Tampa Bay and just their limitations? Or are you worried on Dallas? I think I see limitations in Tampa beyond what I think the normal fan would see.

I just don't really like where they're at on either side of the ball. But I'll also say this with Dallas. I think last week was a one-off. I think mentally they weren't there. I think they tried to rest people. They had a different kind of plan that they were going to pull people out once the Eagles won their game. you know, so there was some mind games that Coach McCarthy was playing there and nobody got anything done.

I'll say this as well. Last week was a tough week around the NFL, Mike. Because of the DeMarre Hamlin thing, there was preparation that was disturbed in every city. I thought it resulted in very choppy play by a lot of teams. There was focused that really normally is good that teams just didn't focus until Thursday or Friday because of the news and what was going on. Oh, yeah. So that's why I thought we saw a lot of bad ball last week because of that. And I think Dallas, you have to look no further than them to find out the worst ball.

And so I think Dallas will turn it around this week and find a way to beat Tampa. Yeah, the thing that worries me about picking Tampa, I'll stick with him, but even though I think you're very persuasive, you know, is the past Russian Micah Parsons and, you know, Tom Brady not being able to move. And the, you know, I'm not sure the outlets are going to be there consistently enough for him. He does get the ball out quick, but this could certainly be one of those games where the, the, the, the cowboys get their hands on some of those quick passes. The ball's batted up.

Someone's running the other way. It is on grass. I don't know if you have an opinion of that helping or hurting the pass rush of, no, I don't. But what I do have an opinion on with regard to that pass rush is I'm not put in a past Dan Quinn that he's kind of dialed it back the last month for a reason. I think he has saved some stuff for this time. Remember, we talked about a month or so ago about Parsons lining up in the same spot every

play and people didn't even have to look for him anymore, right? Well, I wouldn't be surprised if Dan rolls out some stuff. He's a, he's a, he's a, he's a, he's a, he's a, he always saves something for later that they haven't seen. And I think we'll see more of the old Parsons, because I think they'll move them around and do some things that affect protections and some of those things with regard to Tampa. And when Tampa looks bad, man, it can look bad. You can, you can, you can, there's been six games this year where I'm probably sure I'd never

pick the bucks again, you know, so we'll see if it's just too much of a recency by for me for what I saw from Dallas last week. anxious to kind of see the game, see what happens. Maybe Tom Brady's final game with Tampa Bay. Maybe final game ever. I doubt it. I think he's going to keep playing. But we will see.

We're not going to keep talking because we've reached the end of the fourth quarter, end of regulation here on this edition of the Football GM podcast. You can find Randy Mueller's work at muleerf Football.com. You can find him on Twitter at Randy Mueller underscore. I'm Mike Sandoz, senior writer from the athletic. You can find me on the other. Athletic and at Sando NFL on Twitter. Thanks, everybody.

We'll talk to you next time. Enjoy Wildcard weekend. This was The Athletic Football Show.