The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Football GM: Randy Mueller’s top QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft

Episode Date: March 23, 2023

With the NFL Draft just over a month away, Mike Sando and former GM Randy Mueller examine the top QBs in this year’s class. Randy shares what he’s seen on the film, who he believes is the most pro-ready, potential landing spots and much more. Follow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLFollow Randy on Twitter: @RandyMueller_Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube3:18 Criteria for scouting QBs8:50 Anthony Richardson15:40 Will Levis23:20 Bryce Young 32:43 C.J. Stroud37:57 Potential QB landing spotsToday's show is brought to you by...Atlassian: For projects impossible alone, visit www.atlassian.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome everybody to the Football GM podcast, Mike Sando here, of The Athletic, along with the GM Randy Mueller on a big show. Really one of my favorite shows of the year, not just because Randy does even more of the work than normal, which is a lot on the podcast, but because we're going to talk about college quarterbacks today. Randy's going to unveil his top five.

We're going to start with number five and go all the way through. But first off, Randy, how are you doing? I'm doing great life. Three game winning streak in the XFL. I mean, that's pretty good. Excited that we're actually in a week six of the XFL if you follow my train of thought. Last time around, that didn't happen. So I think everybody in week six is, okay, I know it's coming, but everybody's still a little hesitant, you know, to say, hey, we're going to play a game week six.

Not that there's any reason to doubt it. It's just. Hey, you take. You don't take anything for granted anyway, but you really, in an upstart league, you know, it's a lot more volatile. This is not the NFL where there's billions of dollars have roots down in the ground. I mean, things can change in a hurry. So congratulations on getting to week six. Yeah, I would just say this.

There has never been any doubt in my mind that this would fly. And the ownership has been thoroughly selling that message to us. So nobody ever had any doubts. What I say is tongue in cheap, trust me. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So Randy is basically the general manager of the XFL Dragons, three and two, one of the best teams in the league. Three game winning streak there. I had to laugh this week as we approached these draft rankings, Randy, because did you see what Devin McCordy said after retiring from the Patriots?

I did not see him, no. So, okay. So he was reflecting on their season, obviously a difficult season on offense for the most part for the Patriots. But he said, there's a little bit of a quarterback controversy in the New England locker room. Some guys said, hey, let's go with Bailey Zappi. And I laughed because a year ago on this podcast where we previewed the quarterbacks going into the draft. Randy raised some eyebrows when he said, hey, Bailey Zappy was his number two quarterback in the draft behind Kenny Pickett. Pickett, of course, went to the Steelers and was the only quarterback taken in the first round.

He was also the only one with the first round graded by Randy. So, hey, maybe the Patriots saw something in their locker room that you saw in Bailey. Well, I don't think there's any magic to this, Mike. I just think experience does help. And when you have scars having gone through and drafted quarterbacks or seen quarterbacks, both excel and fail, your criteria is a little bit different than somebody on the street who just says, hey, let's go for it. Let's risk this.

Let's do, whoa, whoa, whoa. So I'm going to pump the brakes probably more than most analysts or most evaluators will, just because I've been the guy in that chair. So it doesn't mean I'm right. Doesn't mean, you know, this is any different. And I think this year will be a little more chalk, per se, but you never know when these guys are going to get picked. So I think that's a discussion as well. Okay.

So before we jump into your top five of quarterbacks in the 2003 NFL draft, how do you prepare for this? What's your eval process? How long does it take? How involved is it? You got notes or what do you do? Yeah, I think the biggest thing is you have to have a criteria. You've got to understand what you're looking for to start with. And your criteria, Mike, might be different than mine.

And that's fine. Yeah. I'm just going to prioritize certain things at a level that I'm comfortable with, whether that's for me personally or our offensive coaches or our scheme and the fit that we're going to put these kids into. Yours may be totally different. You may run a different style of offense and have different priorities that you think are more important. So that's why this is a lot like ice cream flavors.

We all have our favorite ice cream. But I think if you don't start with a little bit of a blueprint as to what you're looking for you come out with some craziness at the end. And that's really the case with any position. We'll obviously talk about these. And by the way, I have four, the four that everybody's kind of projecting. Yeah, projecting in the early round anyway, early to be picked. So those are the four we'll dive into at some point.

So yeah, in two sentences then or three, what is the Randy Mueller general criteria for quarterbacks? What are you looking for? Well, my list includes some flaws that if they exist, they're fatal. And so if a quarterback cannot process from the pocket, and I'm assuming he can make all the throws physically, but if he can't, that's an issue as well. But he's got to be able to process a ton of information and do it all in a short amount of time.

So you've got to go from A to B when you're in the pocket. You've got to see the field. A lot of times we'll see quarterbacks at the college. level look but not see if that makes sense. They look like crazy, but they don't see what's going on. And sometimes that's a reflection of the scheme. Sometimes it's a reflection of the kid. Sometimes it's a reflection of what's the coach telling him to do.

You see a lot of predetermined targeted routes, especially in college. So kids don't have to process. They don't have to let the coverage take them to the target. And they don't have to flip, flop back and forth. They're making it simple, as they should. The level of play is different than it is in the NFL. So you've got to kind of weed that out. And that's how I get to the processing part of it.

He's got to throw with accuracy. That's in the top three or four criteria. If you're not accurate, you're limited. And that's both on the run and from a stationary position. And nowadays, because it's so hard to keep quarterbacks upright and clean in the pocket, they almost have to be able to throw without their feet under him. You see the Pat Mahomes is and the Rogers, even Josh Allen. And these guys can all throw now without their feet under him.

That hasn't always been the case in this, you know, in the NFL. You have Troy Aikman. You have Dan Marino. You have a bunch of these, John Elway to a point, always through with his legs under him. There's a lot of these positions that we put quarterbacks in now that they've got to get the ball out quick. And a lot of times it's sometimes without even the laces, but they got to get it out without their feet being under him. So those are two or three big criteria. If they can't do one or two or three of those, I determine that to me, they're flawed,

and our scheme's going to have to make up for a lot of things that they aren't physically. The biggest assumption you make is that quarterbacks can make all the throws. That's not the case year in and year out. There's probably only two or three guys in every draft that can make all the throws. So you've then as you dwindle down your list of players at a position, and this is we're going to talk about quarterbacks, but as you dwindle down that list, your criteria changes somewhat, but you've got to keep the priority of each individual characteristic in mind because you're going to get to the point where he only has one or two

things and what are the one or two things you've got to have most. And so those guys stay alive. You remember a couple years ago, we kind of liked and talked about on the show Sam Ellinger. He was now a quarterback for the Colts. He was kind of a guy that came out of the pack after watching film. for me, because he could process and because he could make most of the throws from the pocket, it gave him a chance. Now, there's some other things that he couldn't do then.

But that's what I think is the reason he's still on a team. The same with Bailey Zappy. I can overlook a guy that's six foot tall if he can do all the other things. And the fact that a guy is height challenged, it only is an issue. Well, it's the two reasons. And we'll get into that when we talk about Bryce Young. Everybody knows that story. But it's one durability and two vision.

it can't compromise both of those or else I think you're fatally flawed. So it's when I remember you said. You can exist at six foot if your vision is that of a six two or six three guy like Drew Breeze, like Russell Wilson, like these shorter guys. But you've also got to build your offensive front a little different too to protect those six foot guys and keep their windows of vision open. Yeah, I remember you saying that about Zappi. It wasn't like you were saying he was a first round pick or anything, but you said

his height didn't really seem to limit his ability to function and see. It didn't seem to be a detriment to him as it is for most people. So that made him stand out as somebody who has a chance. It doesn't mean he's going to be great, but has a chance. Maybe in the right system, the right setup, or if he develops further just from working at his craft. So let's get into the rankings. Who do you got at number four? Well, like I said, I don't think there's a magic sauce here.

These are the four players that most analysts have talked about. And people that, and I'll be honest, I don't compare a lot of notes to guys within NFL offices. I like to make up my own opinion, right? And have my own evaluation. But these are the four guys that I think people are talking about. The fourth on my list is probably the fourth on everybody's list, I guess. And that's Anthony Richardson from Florida. The kid has 13 career starts.

But when you watch his pro day, which is coming up, you watch his combine. That's what gets everybody stirred up. He's 6'4. He's 230 pounds. He's a redshirt sophomore, so he's only 21 years old, and he's got a rocket for an arm. He has the foundation for somebody who could trend upward. But in my opinion, there are a lot of instances where it's just flashes right that you see. His strong suits to me, great athlete.

In fact, I think back of the Malik Willis last year, this kid's a way better athlete than Malik Willis. Plus, he's bigger and stronger. So that is a big plus, a feather in his cat. He's got an easy sound delivery. It's not funky. The ball comes out. He has no issue making throws really from either a stationary position or on the move. He escapes pressure.

Sometimes he tries to get away from pressure when it's not there, so he'll flush from the pocket too early. And that's a little bit of a red flag. The pocket's not for everybody. And I'm not being critical. It's just some guys are better suited and more comfortable in there. Some guys want to chase out of that pocket way too soon. And just think this. When a guy runs out of the pocket,

pocket, especially if he flushes to one side or another, the defense automatically drops coverage on the other side of the field. They can't, they don't need to cover the other side of the field, because unless it's John Elway, he can't turn and throw clear across the field of play. So those defensive guys, they shrink it all down to one side. So that's why you don't want quarterbacks that flush the pocket. This kid is great making plays with his feet. He can not only run for a first down, he might run 50 yards for a first down. He makes people miss like a receiver after a catch. That's how athletic he is. Yeah, and the end, at the end of the day for me, he has plenty of arm strength. In fact, I would say elite arm strength. None of the throws are

going to be a problem for the strength of his arm. Sometimes the trajectory of the throws and sometimes the touch, they're a little bit inconsistent. You get to the weak points for me. And I mentioned one. He flushes too early a lot of times. He doesn't really have a great feel for being in the pocket. He misses open people way too often. He sees, he looks, but he doesn't see. A lot of times targets are running open and he doesn't find him. But the fact that he misses open people, to me, is concerning. The college game allows for much more margin for air than the NFL game.

You can get away with missing guys in college because you might get 80 snaps on a Saturday. There's a good chance you're only getting 62 or 63 at the pro level. So those misses are magnified just because of the way the games are played. But he misses too many people for me. He really struggles with accuracy. I thought, this guy reminds me of me shooting ducks. I'm about one out of three. I can hit him on the money.

The other ones are all over the place. And really, it's anticipation, it's timing, and the accuracy comes with having confidence as well. It's also something that I think is hard to improve. Everybody says, well, Josh Allen improved his accuracy. He was the exception to the rule. Plus, some of us didn't think he had a giant accuracy problem anyway. So I think in the entity's case, they say, well, he's receiving.

weren't very good. He had a lot of drops, a lot of this. And there were some of that in there. But at the end of the day, he struggles to put it where a receiver can catch it. And then that limits the run after catch as well. If a receiver can't catch it in stride, you're not going to have very many big plays because he's always fumbling around to adjust to catch the ball. And I just think he lacks a general feel for the position at this point. 13 career starts is not very many. 24 touchdowns. 15 interceptions was a concern for me. I thought his decision making was really inconsistent. But to complete 54% of his passes, that's not very good in this day and age. So my guess is what I'm saying is there's skills. He's very raw, though, and I could not take

a risk on this kid when I hear him talking about now as early as some in the top 10. That, to me, would be a leap of faith that I just couldn't make. Doesn't mean somebody won't make it. I just couldn't do it. Yeah, would you even consider him in the first round? I would not. I could, there's no way I could take a bite of that apple. There's too many ifs. And that's why when I hear people talk about him and say, well, we just got to take a chance that he's going to be good and that we don't have to play against him. I got news for you. I'd love to play against him. Maybe four or five years from now he might be great.

But long term in the NFL, especially for decision makers, is about two years. He's got to be showing it quick. Yes. He's going to hit the ground, drinking out of a fire hose and will have gone from the dock of the bay to the Audubon in a development world that doesn't wait for. for anybody. It's going to be the speed of the game. The other thing was I wasn't thrilled with the Florida offense and what they asked him to do, but that may have been a little bit of a circumstance as to what his skill set was. So they had to make it really simple. In summary, his armed talent, great, athleticism, off the charts. A thrower for me, Mike, not a passer.

I thought he was a total project for me with a lot of upside. I get it. But there's no way I could consider him in the first round. You know, it's interesting. I was looking at, you mentioned the limited number of starts. Here are some other comps for college career pass attempts. Okay. Patrick Mahomes over 1,300. Justin Herbert over 1,200. Joe Burrow over 900. C.J. Stroud over 800. Will Levis, who will discuss over 700. I believe Bryce Young had a really high number two. Josh Allen, a little lower, about 649. Anthony Richardson, 393. That's really a small body of work. And, you know, I don't pretend to be an evaluator, but when you watch some of these misses, they're really unusual misses to where it seems like a very straightforward

throw. And the ball goes so far over the head of the receiver that not even an attempt is made to catch the ball. That was on some of the throws. And you just kind of go, hmm, you know, if I miss the duck like that, my buddy would punch me in the arm, Mike. And he'd say, what the hell are you doing? Come on. Well, it's like me at the driving range. You know, the guy in the first, the guy in the first fairway is in a much better, much bigger danger than the guy driving the little ball picker up or in the middle of the range. So, yeah, so that's where we, that's where we are with him at number four. Who do you got checking in at number three?

Well, number three for me is Will Levis, the Kentucky kid. And there's been a lot written about him. And like Eugia said, he's the other end of the experience factor. I mean, this guy is three years at Penn State. Then Kentucky, he's got 26 starts alone at Kentucky, 46 TDs, 25 interceptions. He has all the physical skills again. He's 64. He's 232 pounds.

He does not lack for confidence. He does not lack for physical skills. You don't have to extrapolate his durability unless you just, because he runs like Josh Allen, maybe you have some question that he doesn't take care of his body like he should. but I'll just talk about his strong points for me off the charts for size, which is height, weight, and speed. He's really tough.

He can run. A very, I would say, above average athlete, even at NFL quarterbacking levels, he has like Richardson, an easy throwing motion, top shelf arm talent. This guy can, he can throw fastballs now. I mean, impressive. He can extend plays with his feet. He makes something out of nothing. just like Richardson, I wouldn't put him in Richardson's athletic category, but he's pretty

dang good, and he will extend plays because of it. The weak points for me are very questionable decision making, which really is a concern for me for a guy who had 26 starts. He's played a lot of ball already to make these kind of decisions. That's a red flag. 46 TDs, great, but 25 interceptions. That's a lot of decision making. And again, maybe not the NFL receivers that he's going to use.

when he gets to the next level, but definitely a concern for me. Consistently under through deep balls. I think he really struggles with the right trajectory and the right velocity on deep balls. And that's something that's really hard to teach. That's really a touch and feel thing. And I mean, you know, we've been lucky. We got to watch Warren Moon for a few years in Seattle. Clearly the best deep thrower I've ever seen.

Russell Wilson might be second. Those guys really know how to throw deep balls. And my guess is they weren't coached that way or taught them. that way, that was pretty natural. And this kid struggles by underthrowing deep balls consistently. I thought the passing game at Kentucky, and I mean, far be it from me to judge coaching, that's not why I'm here, but I thought it was elementary. And therefore, he's going to have a lot to learn at the next level. Sometimes we get these kids out of college where the first thing we would say in a meeting is, well, we've got a deep program from everything they know because that's

not what we want to do at this level. This kid, I think, has some basics, but the level of quarterbacking isn't 101 at the NFL level. And I would say this guy might be 101, maybe 201, but he's going to hit the ground at 401 and 501 in graduate classes. So there's going to be a period of complete learning and complete processing at a different speed. And you can say that that is the case for every college quarterback. Not so. Certain programs, certain schemes better fit for the pros.

He's again, willed for me, raw but very physically talented. his accuracy and his decision making are not up to NFL standards. That's probably, and I haven't mentioned that earlier in the weak points, his accuracy is crazy, bad too. And the reason I'm not so high on these two guys, we've talked about the criteria, but accuracy to me is a fatal flaw. And I don't see putting that on the receivers at these, you know, two schools either. Yeah, the receivers will be better in the NFL, but accuracy is a big thing and that's really hard to improve. just not up the NFL standards. This kid, I did a little research on his background.

He is book smart, academic All-American, really a sharp kid, athletic ability off the charts. But football IQ for me, I was disappointed in, again, mainly the decisions for a guy that's played as much as he has. He was three years at Penn State and started one game. Then he played a lot when he got to Kentucky. There's something missing there in all honesty. I don't know. It's not physically. I can tell you that because he can make all the three.

rows. But the accuracy and decision making for me kind of came in at a different level. Would I consider him in the first round? Yes, but it would be later on. I definitely wouldn't trade up to select a kid like this because I think he's got a ways to go. Do you remember, and not to jinx this guy, but you remember Kyle Bowler when he came out of Cal 10, 15 years ago? That's kind of what he reminded me of was Kyle Bowler at Cal. Could make all the throws, big, strong athletic dude could throw it through a brick wall. But some of the other nuances of the quarterbacking job at the NFL level are going to be a struggle for Will early on.

Now, I'm not capping these guys and saying that they can't ever get there. I just as a decision maker and as a drafter would struggle drafting them over cleaner players with less fatal flaws or less flaws just to take a guy because we have a giant need there. That's the decision these NFL teams make. or half the make. It's funny. When you were describing him, I was wondering about somebody like a Mitch Trubisky, you know, was there any of that or no? More arm strength, probably a little top level athlete, a little more athletic than Mitch as well. So, and think about it, Mitch got picked,

what, third? Yeah. Yeah. So I understand why these names get thrown around there. This is just my opinion of what I would do. Hey, somebody else might pick this kid second, third. I don't know. I mean, you never know. But I just think you've got to beware and really know what you're getting. And if you think you're getting a polished guy that can play right away, I think he might be mistaken. Those things like the, you know, the instincts or the feel for the game, does that come along? Do you see that? Or do you, is it usually when you question that at the college level, then it doesn't come along? It's hard to get. I equate it to this sometimes. And I don't know Will's background. And again, I'm not picking off. on this kid. He's going to be, like everybody says, a first round pick. That's fine. But I equated to,

did he play a Nerf ball out in the yard as a kid? Did he choose upsides with neighbor kids and spend hours out there playing football in your yard? You know, that's when we all learned the game. That's when we played basketball at the academy on the dunk hoop when it was five on five when we were kids, you know, that's how you learn the game. And I don't know sometimes these kids nowadays how much time they spend growing up outside playing ball and not playing video games and something else. So I think it's a generational issue. To be honest with you, I don't know if I can answer that, Mike.

I don't know that it's something they can acquire, maybe in time. But instincts to me are kind of born and develop those at a young age. I know. I know. I know. Maybe it sounds like a couple of old guys here. Yeah, I guess. I noticed, like one of the things I noticed just watching kids sports is just,

like just watching kids basketball and how few kids see the whole game and floor in a way like to make certain passes, you know, that I would have thought like just were made all the time in the pickup games, you know, when you're just playing. Yeah, it's an interesting. It doesn't, they develop other skills too because they're practicing. Sure. Sure. So much. Maybe hand-eye coordination and all that. Yeah.

But the feel is hard. Feel is an interesting component. All right. We are down to the top two, which is big now because we've seen these different mock draft. Bryce Young here, C.J. Stroud there. Who's your number two? And we can get into how early you would take them to. Yeah. Well, we've already seen a team trade up to the top of the draft. And everybody's assuming it's going to be for a quarterback. So they're going to have a selection to make. I'm assuming they know which one they're going to take. I think both these two players are really good players, Mike. And I think they're worthy of being picked. where most talk about. Yeah. I happen to like one a little better than the other,

but second guy for me is Bryce Young. It's not as simple as saying, well, you just don't like a guy that's 5, 10, 200 pounds. That's not necessarily yet. I do like him a lot. We're not really concerned too much with the past. We want to project him at the next level. 27 starts.

Like I say, 21 years old, 66% completion, 80 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. Great decision making. Instincts off the charts. Really good anticipation. Nifty feet. I wouldn't put him in the athletic category of the last two guys we talked about, but sure can tuck the ball and keep plays alive and go run for a first down. So I think he can escape enough and he can extend plays. But much like Tua when he came out, he's not going to be able to run away from danger. because NFL guys are really fast and they find a way to catch you. So when you think you have a lot of time to escape and run, you really don't. The windows close, pursuit closes.

A lot of things are different when the speed of the game gets jolted up high. And everybody says, oh, he played in the SEC. I got news for you. They play about three games in the SEC too. We don't, you know, in the NFL, it's all Alabama Auburn. It's all Alabama, Georgia every week. So it's a little different. But I love this kid's poise in the pocket.

He sees the whole field when he's in the pocket. And mindful, this is a 5-10 guy. They have to keep the pocket clean for him, I think, most of the time. But he's very accurate. He throws with timing. He throws with great anticipation. And he can add lib and make things out of nothing. We say all the time, he can make chicken salad now.

He does that on any given play. I think his arm strength is lesser than the last two guys we talked about, but it's above average. I think the one thing that would worry me a tad bit is we talked about being able to throw without your legs under you. He can do that on the shorter and some even medium range throws, but to get it down field, he needs his legs under him because he's not a big, strong dude.

Yep. He has a really good touch. He has a really consistent trajectory on deep balls. This could be one of those guys that, becomes a really good deep ball thrower because it's easy for him. And I think he knows when you have to make a throw from the pocket, Mike, over undercoverage, which is linebackers that are maybe 15 yards and they're running a deep dig behind them and there's a free safety over the top, you've got to drop it in over the undercoverage.

That's a really hard throw to make at any level. This kid does that well. Some guys have to wait until he comes into a window and fire it in there in between the windows. this kid can do that too. He's not afraid to try to stick it in tight areas on, on shorter routes. But he can drop medium the deep balls in over underneath coverage, which is really good. The couple things that I worry about with him are evident to everybody, and I think it's no secret. I worry about him operating in a dirty, less than ideal pocket.

I used to say all my time with the chargers, Philip Rivers was made for the pocket. I mean, this guy loved the chaos that's in an NFL pocket. It's why these guys make 50 million in the year, Mike. The roof caving in on them. It is chaos for all of us, and they sense calmness. And it's easy if you're 6 foot 6 or it's easier. This gets 5'10. So the chaos of a pocket, he has not seen anything like it.

And I know everybody comes back with, oh, Georgia rushed him. It's not the same. Trust me. This is the bigger, baddest guys in the world. trying to take your head off every snap. So that just worries me a little bit. And because of that, I worry about his durability. I saw him get tossed around a little bit in the Georgia game from a year ago in that game.

Physically, it was hard on him. And this is not a 10, 12 game season in the NFL. It is 17 games plus another three or four if you're that lucky. So that's a 20 game schedule to get where we all want to get. And I have concerned about 510, 200 doing that. because he's not a thick kid like Russell Wilson. I don't even think he's as thick as Drew Brees. Not even as thick as Kyler Murray, in my opinion.

Different frame, different build. You know, so it is what it is. I think he's worthy of being picked high. I probably wouldn't go up to get him because of that other stuff, but I understand why teams would. He's dynamic in a lot of ways as a playmaker and kind of as a magician. I just think there's a little less doubt for me about the next guy just because of him being able to check all the boxes. And Bryce, there's a lot of NFL teams, Mike, I'll put it this way, who have systems for scouting and grading college players that are built in insurances against you drafting a player like this or a 5-8 corner or a 6-1 defensive alignment because they won't allow you.

had it in Miami when I was there. And this is Nick Saban's theory to this day. If a guy couldn't, if we couldn't remove all the alerts before draft day, in other words, teams have alerts. They put colors and they put signies, insignias on players. He doesn't run fast enough. He's not, he has injury tags. He's got a character tag. There's a million things. Durability wise. All of these tags are on cards of NFL prospects. And by the end of the day, when draft day comes, you hope to be able to remove some of those doubts. But this is one at 510,200, you're never going to be able to remove that. So in our old system in Miami, when Nick and I were together,

we couldn't put this guy above mid-second round. Interesting. Because the insurances are there. So having said that, a lot of teams are going to have to jump outside of their normal operation of scouting systems and processes to consider a guy like this. he would not fit for us at all. And some places make exceptions. Nick didn't believe in exceptions.

He didn't want short corners. He didn't want short quarterbacks. He didn't want any of that. He said, we're not going to have a bunch of short players. He had other terms for it that I'll won't call out. He'd better not take Daryl Green than take the risk that came with taking Daryl Green. I think, you know, Parcells used to say that too about exceptions. You can't have a team of exceptions.

I guess at this position, where there's such a scarce supply, right? That would be the interesting one. Like, I could totally see having a hard rule on, you know, wide receivers or something, because there's a bunch of them. You can find guys if you want to fit your template. Quarterback, you could be at one of these teams that's picking in the top five

and you're like, hey, shoot, this guy looks a lot better than anyone else we're looking at, right? I mean, what are we going to, we can't get Patrick Mahomes. We can't, getting the perfect guy, this may be. The thing that is interesting to me is, I saw a note that no quarterback weighing less than I think 207 pounds has been drafted in the first round. And I think Bryce Young's official weight at the combine was 204, but I just wonder what he's really going to play at because wasn't that his, you know, coin collection in your pockets, drink two gallons of water, you know, have a steak dinner the night before weight. I guarantee he'll be 190, you know, for the most part. Yeah. So the concern with that, especially with the way two has been thrown around weighing a lot more than that is...

Just like it. When you watch, you know, the NFL used to allow a lot more violence on quarterbacks, but I just... I think there used to be more guys who were of a lower weight. You'd see quarterbacks would be 190, 185. And when they got thrown around, they got thrown into the stands. Yeah. It's just a different look when they do. So I guess that would be the, even though Bryce Young hasn't missed a ton of games.

I think he missed a game in October this year and it was banged up a little bit. But we're projecting over the course of 17 game seasons now. If you're a good team in the playoffs. Playing Georgia every week. Every week. Yeah. Carter, who's the big nose guy from every week? You're facing one just like it.

Yeah. Now you can't land on them anymore. There's rules built around. And that helps. That helps him without a doubt. That helps him. But even Mahomes is limping by the end of the year, right? And he, you know, and he's a big, sturdy guy.

So that is, hey, if there were three John Elways in the draft, it'd be easy, right? We'd just say you take them. But you have to make that decision. Okay, let's get to C.J. Stroud. He's your number one. Yep. CG.H. Stroud, Ohio State, 6, 3, 2, 14, another 21-year-old. And I love the fact that these guys are young, that they can really have a long career.

that really can develop. 25 starts for CJ, but how about this? 69% completion. That's the best of all these guys we've talked about, 81 TDs, 12 interceptions. This guy's numbers

jump off the chart for me. They may not be impressive to others, but for me, big time. His strengths for me, height, weight, and speed. He checks all the boxes. I love his delivery. I love the way the ball

comes out of his hand. He can make all the throws, both from a stationary position and on the move, doesn't need his legs under him all the time. I really like his footwork. He's clean. He really connects his lower body with his upper body, and throwing motions don't always do that.

I think this guy is fundamentally sound, as has come out in a long time, and the results show it. I love his footwork. Has anticipation. He is a prime example for me of a guy that can look and see everything. Justin Fields, everybody says, well, what about him?

He was Ohio State. He was this and this and this. This guy's a different level for me than Justin Fields. And I like Justin Fields. Justin Fields always had to wait until the guy came open before he threw it. Now he's getting a little bit better at that. This guy does not have to. He has really good anticipation.

He has a really good feel for when and where receivers are going to come open, which is a giant thing in the NFL. Because the defensive backs are quicker, faster, close quicker, you've got to throw people open at times. And I hope that makes sense because a little crack at the NFL level might be all you get. And if you wait a split second before you unleash it, the defender's going to make up the ground and it's not going to get there. So these guys have to have great and great anticipation. And for me, he has that.

And to really top it all off, his accuracy and his consistency to go with this good decision making, I mean, that's the full package for me. Plus, I think he's tough physically. I saw him take a beating and he comes back. I don't think there's any softness about this kid either, so I don't have any durability concerns. The weak points for me, and there's not many, a couple little things, and I think it's kind of being nitpicky. He will flush from the pocket early at times. His pocket is clean a lot because they're better than everybody else at Ohio State.

They protect him very well. He doesn't get roughed up. He might take an unneeded sack a time or two, but I'm also. not totally against that either because he doesn't take a ton of risks. You want, you want when you watch him, you say, get rid of it, get rid of it. There's a tight window. Maybe he could have hit the checkdown, but this kid ends up taking a sack. I just think he has developed the attitude of I'm going to live to fight another day,

and there's nothing wrong with that. And maybe they can build in some of that stuff with the outlets for him and give them, you know, take away a couple of those sacks and just make it be a 100% three-yard game. And I think his processing will pick up. I think there's a lot of upside, a lot of run up for this guy, even though he's good already. Comparing him to last year, Mike, better physically for me than Pickett. And you know, I like Pickett. Worthy of being picked high, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on this kid.

For me, it's a no-brainer. I just don't see any downside. I don't see any risk, and I don't see really any boxes that he doesn't check. He's Pickett, only better, in my opinion. Yeah, so you're fine with Carolina moving up. To take him on him. Yep. Yes.

and did you feel, if you were in the Chicago chair, would you have still kept with fields and traded and did what they did? Or would you, after watching Stroud, be really tempted to try to move fields? I think they've progressed fields enough to have a better feel for him than any of us would. And I like where he's trending. I also, you have to consider what they got by dropping down nine spots. They fixed a lot of their holes on their team. I think they'll be fine with Justin Fields in the long run.

And I know there's a lot of people down on Justin Fields as a passer. I think that some of that falls on the scheme, the coach, the players around him. They'll work that out. So I have no problem with him doing what they did, nor do I have a problem with Carolina moving up either. Again, they may pick Bryce Young or some will love us. I don't know. But for me, it makes most sense to pick the guy who checks the most boxes. And for me, that was C.J. Strout.

Yeah, it's funny to me in looking at some of the scouting reports I've seen, you know, some have wondered if he scrambles enough, which I think is an awesome reflection of him. so many times the guys scramble too much and they rely on their legs. And I think it's just a, for somebody who, like you said, he's not an amazing scrambler, but he's athletic. He can move around, but that's not the overriding instinct of him because he's such a good passers. So if you actually have to encourage him to move a little bit more, that's a great place

to start from. Well, for me, I think he can move. He just doesn't need to a lot either. And he can have to move a lot in the NFL because they're going to be coming every week. So, but I think it's there, and I think he'll be just fine doing it. I don't think it's going to take him out of his comfort zone. Yes. So let's talk about where these guys could land.

I mean, with Carolina picking number one and Frank Reich being there, don't you kind of see it being C.J. Stroud? I do. I don't know that Frank Reich determines it, and I love Frank Reich, but he used a few chips in Indianapolis that I'm not willing to just dismiss on selecting quarterbacks. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. So I'm not going there. But I do think Scott Fitterer, who came from Seattle, who has experience both pros and cons with a shorter quarterback, I think he will be a good judge. Let's face it. Nobody's looking for five, ten, two hundred pounds.

But this kid does do some things exceptionally well. I would think C.J. Stroud would make more sense to them. The wild card to me with Carolina is what does the owner want and will he acquiesce? Does he want to win the press conference? Does he want to win the Bryce? young, you know, Heisman, all that, all the accolades that come with it. I don't know. For me, it, it, there's enough of a hesitation there to where I think C.J.

Stroud makes more sense for the next 10 years, but I don't know if the owner's going to be involved in that or not. He sure seems like he might. It just doesn't seem like there's a negative on him, really, you know, a real negative on Stroudreland. Not at all. And the only, and the really, and really is none on Bryce Young, either other than the one thing he can't control, which is just his frame is, you know,

gives you a reason to wonder about the long-term durability. That's it. I go back to what Bill Parcells told me 30 years ago as a young guy in Seattle, and he just said, Randy, he said, it's not my opinion, but little guys get hurt. He said it's a big man game. And he said, we set formations. We do things on both sides of the ball to force little guys to set the edge,

to tackle, to do things physically. And guess what? We usually win because our guys are bigger, stronger. So if you have that choice, I'm not saying you always have that choice, but, and I've used that for years. It's not my opinion, but little guys get hurt. That's just a fact. Look at history.

I think the fascinating setup for this whole thing is indie at four, because I think we're going to see the, we're going to see Young and Stroud go one and two in some order, in my opinion. It just makes too much sense for those teams. And then Arizona is sitting there at three and who knows, maybe somebody trades up or whatever. But I would think that your evaluation. of Will Levis, who you could justify maybe taking in the first round, but not in the top five.

And then Anthony Richardson, who you see is more of a project, the Colts could share that evaluation. I think there's a decent chance that they would share that evaluation. Yet here they are picking at number four, and they've been in a desperation situation with the quarterbacks, right? It's hard to remove what's gone on in the last five years, and there's a feeling of we have to get a quarterback. What are they going to do if they don't get a quarterback? We all saw what happened with the owner last year. Maybe that's subsided or whatever, but I wonder if Indy at number four, what if they just didn't take a quarterback? Is that plausible to you if you were the general manager of the Colts, given that history? Because you can't just wipe that away. It exists. Or do you

wipe it away? How would you be in Chris Bowers' chair? I would insist on not taking one, Mike. I just think it's crazy to take the guys who are being talking about up there. Nothing says you can get your quarterback out of the first round or bust. I mean, maybe it is a hooker from Tennessee or McKee from Stanford or one of these other guys. And I'll be glad. At a later podcast, we're going to dive into some of those lesser known guys and we'll see if we can't find a Bailey Zappy. I guarantee you, Chris Ballard, Ed Dodd, those guys will find a Bailey Zappy out of that

next group if that's what need be. What's wrong with drafting a Will Anderson or somebody like that at four who is the best possible player? In fact, they'll probably get at least the second guy on their board aside from the quarterbacks. So they're going to get a really, really good player picking four. So I think the only way you screw it up is if you insist on drafting a quarterback, reach for one. The next group will be developing Will Levis. The next group will be. See, I bet they don't take one.

It makes sense to me. either. I don't see why people would force them into that corner to having have to take one. Again, it's, it's hard. I get it. Hey, I spent 10, 15 years sometimes searching for a quarterback that never showed up. It's timing as well. Look how fortunate they were when, when Peyton Manning left, they got Andrew Luck the next week, next day. So they've been fortunate. Now they're a little unlucky in that they don't have the same lot to pick from. So I just think you get in trouble forcing it. That's all. Yep.

And then Seattle will be there at five and people are circling, you know, penciling in a quarterback there. I don't know about that either. So, yeah. I don't think he said, no chance on your breath. No chance. They're not going to take a quarterback. It doesn't make any sense. Yeah.

And not to me anyway, not with the guys that I've seen. Now, maybe there's some other guys that's going to jump out of the blue that nobody knows about. But I can't imagine picking him a five if that's the case. Yep. And they can get a big defensive lineman or somebody like that. They got quite a few needs to fill too. So it'll be interesting to me to see how far. So, you know, most people coming out of the combine thought these four quarterbacks top ten,

wouldn't you guess that three of them go in the top ten? Would you guess Levis probably does? I don't know, Mike. If I was a betting man, I'd say two go and the other ones go later. Yeah, interesting. That's just from 30 years in the league. Now all it takes is one team to step out and say, hey, we're going to do this. We're so desperate.

We're going to do this. I just think he wreaks of desperation because the other two guys, in my opinion, aren't complete. And there's a lot of guys who are equal to my experience at evaluating quarterbacks running NFL teams now, too. And I can't really fathom them seeing it much different than that. But I guess. And so, yep, no, you're absolutely right. And some of these other teams that are in there, I mean, Seattle re-signed Geno Smith. They can wait.

Detroit has Jared Goff. The Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo, right? These teams have done enough to where they could have an open mind, but they don't have to take one that high. And so we probably won't see it. And then you start to look and say, okay, you know, does a Tennessee sitting there outside the top 10 maybe get one of these quarterbacks, right? And Tennessee already took one last year that everybody had in the first round that the gurus thought from his pro day and the combine was going to be the next. I love it. I mean, come on.

Seriously? And that kid is a year away from being a year away and maybe another year away. I love it. Usually, Mueller doesn't gloat like this, but that was an unprovoked. Come on. This is common sense. Absolutely, though. You're right. Last year, people are, what about Malik Willis? What about Malik Willis? And you're saying a little bit of the same thing here this year, although I would imagine you see some difference with Richardson, right? Oh, yeah. No, and I said at the time, I think much more of Richardson. And maybe Malik Willis will be there at some point. But you can just see how raw that was. And what ended up being a third round pick, right? Or four. or something like that. Yeah, yeah.

And that's probably where you should have got drafted. Yep. And Richardson probably goes earlier than that. Yeah, but yeah, but you would be nervous taking them so high because of the project nature. Really what determines the future of, for me, maybe not Levist, but Richardson for sure, Mike, is how many other clean players are available when you pick there at other positions? You know, how deep is this draft? How many really good players are in this draft? Are there 10?

Are there 12? Are there 15? you're probably going to pick those over a guy like Anthony Richards. And just because those guys are going to be competing and playing every down from the minute they get off the bus. So I think that's when the quarterback start to become, well, we can take a chance now because all the other great ones at the other positions are gone.

Yep. So the depth of that first round determines, I think, where Richardson goes. Yep. Yep. So we're predicting a little bit more of a fall for a couple of these guys than everyone who's got them penciled into the top five or six picks. we will, like you said, at a future podcast, we'll look at Hooker from Tennessee

or Tanner McKee from Stanford or Jaron Hall, BYU, some of these guys that are in people's rankings but aren't expected to go as early because who knows, maybe one of those guys will be worth taking a flyer on for some of these teams or not a flyer, but just investing in at a little bit better price point, right, Randy? No, go down.

Then some of these other ones who may be developmental as well and are being talked about really early and you end up making a mistake that you regret just because you needed to win the press conference that week of the draft to say, we got a quarterback, right? Let's get the wolves off our back. We got one, yeah. Okay, great.

Yeah. Absolutely. Well, we had some other things down here. We could talk about, let's just make this a quarterback draft podcast. We can save a couple of those things for next week. We can dive in to some of those other quarterbacks down the road. We'll maybe look at some other positions as well. You can find Randy's work always at Muellerfootball.com.

You can also find Randy on Twitter at Randy Mueller underscore. I'm Mike Sando of the Athletic on Twitter at Sandov NFL. Thanks for coming along this week, and we'll talk to you again soon. This was The Athletic Football Show.