The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Football GM: Ravens sign OBJ, Jeff Okudah traded to Falcons, Randy Mueller’s top WRs in the 2023 NFL Draft & more

Episode Date: April 13, 2023

Mike Sando and former GM Randy Mueller kick off the show by discussing Randy’s top WRs in the 2023 NFL Draft. Then, they talk about Odell Beckham Jr.’s deal with the Ravens, the Falcons trade for Jeff Okudah and what’s going on with the Texans. They wrap with the GM Notebook.Follow Mike on Twitter: @SandoNFLFollow Randy on Twitter: @RandyMueller_Subscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTube6:15 Randy’s top WRs in the 2023 NFL Draft31:30 OBJ signs with Ravens41:50 Jeff Okudah traded to Falcons45:36 What’s going on with the Texans?51:17 GM Notebook Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome, everyone, to the Football GM podcast, Mike Sando here from The Athletic along with the GM, Randy Mueller. How are you today? Randy, in this April 12th, Wednesday. I'll tell you what, I've been in this XFL bubble for about three months, and I have lost track of days, of weeks, of months, I swear. Someone told me tax days coming up pretty soon. I'm kidding, but that's the kind of motion. you get into in these darn football worlds.

And yeah, it's all consuming. It absolutely is. And so we're going to talk about Randy's rankings for the wide receivers in the draft. We're going to talk about OBJ, the Acuta trade, some Texans rumblings, general manager, the GM notebook, I mean, but first, within the context, Randy, of that, you know, you being in the middle of the XFL season as the GM of the Seattle Sea Dragons, I want to take you back to some of your most important duties of the season for sure on Sunday, Easter Sunday, 4 p.m. kickoff, probably about 2 p.m. Your phone's getting blown up with texts,

really important text messages from some knucklehead outside the stadium with his kids. So I want to thank you on behalf of Derek, on behalf of Cade's two friends who went for getting us figuring out my ticket situation. We got in. We were in the Mueller suite. I was hanging out with friends and family of Mueller. We watched a little XFL football. So thank you for that. I know you had nothing else to do on game day except figure out my situation. You would be shocked how nice it is to see a friendly face when you're in the middle of chaos.

And so that was the best part of my day. It was the easiest part of my day. And I apologize for any language you may have heard in that box with family members and friends because I know these people. right and it can be it can be a lot so i love that part of it yeah i love that part of it because you know being you know being in media you have a level of detachment and sometimes that level of attachment in the course of our uh dealings with people from teams clashes with just utter investment you know i mean the everyone is so invested as a reporter really as a reporter going in the games you're not really as concerned with who wins or loses it's it's

everything. You're Switzerland. Yeah. Yeah. But, but, but, but, but the mindset on the team, it's a different. So it was, it was awesome because you're right. I mean, the, the, the, the, could you feel it in there. I could feel it in there. It was it really, it was really great. No one was throwing anything. But, you know, when it goes the wrong way, oh. Yeah. It was like that last week to every game. It was as if I was sitting with you, you know, and of course, you know, yeah, it was really great though, a good atmosphere. And I'm going to tell you that one, two and three point conversion thing. Yeah, it's nuts, isn't it? Late in the game, you guys are, or what, what was the score where you, you were down by, anyway, they, the other team scores like a 70 yard touchdown.

And I'm trying to do the math of like, okay, was that good? Because now you're going to get the the ball back. But what if they score a one point conversion? What if they get a two? What if they get a three? What should you even be hoping for? It was like, I needed to have a chart like you guys probably have to even figure out what I was rooting for. Yeah, it's, it's a mess. And I'll be honest with you. I have to be on the headsets a lot of times with the coaches. And so the discussion on there is crazy, too, just like you and I sitting in the podcast studio. What the heck do we want to happen here? You know, and how about if you'd put money or gambled on a game like this? Oh, my God. It is nuts. I can imagine that. I don't know if Vegas likes it or doesn't, but there's no lead that's

safe. Here's a lead that's safe, 19 points, because there are, there are nine point plays, so you can get to 18 with two possessions. So it's nuts. So if you get a 19 point lead, you're in business. And guess how many of those games there's been all year long. Oh, yeah. You can count them on one hand by all teams in the whole league. So it never works out like that. And I always equated to three-hour route canal. And last Sunday was no different.

I'm glad you got to hang in there with us and see what it's all about. Because no matter what the level, you're trying to win, right? You're trying to do everything you can to win. And it is a worm's eye view of your world on one day. And guys are battling and given it everything they have. And you know, you've been in locker rooms. You know how these guys feel. It's no different in these locker rooms.

It is all in all the time, and it is a battle. Yeah, so we saw Philip Lindsay came in for you. Josh Gordon's on the team, a couple of big names there. And then I thought it was interesting, too, late in the game, you got to do one of those fourth and 15s from your own 20 instead of an onside kick. So that was kind of an interesting thing, too, because you guys had hit some big plays late. You had a drive that went right down the field. So there is kind of a sense of, hey, hope if we can get something. And it's happened against that.

a couple times where guys have, we've had leads and they were, they ended up being enough, but a team scored and converted that fourth and 15. So we're holding on by the seat of our pants, just trying to hang in there. There's no, no rest. I mean, it's, it goes right down to the wire more times than not. So it's nuts. And I'll only throw this in there. Do you know who Josh Lewin is?

Josh Lewin is, was our play-by-play with the guy with the Chargers for years. Anyway, he works for the XFL. He works for the league. And he was with me doing a part of a ride, a. a written column and a podcast. And so he was with me in the coach's box. And he looked at me a couple times with bright eyes. You know, because like you,

a media guy doesn't always get in behind the curtain to see how the sausage is made. And for me, it might be kind of boring. But for him, it was kind of nuts. And I looked at him a couple of times and he gave me the palms up. Like what the heck is going on here? So it was kind of fun. Yeah. It's great.

I really enjoyed it. So we following along here. And you guys are in good. position for the playoffs. We're in a position. I don't know how good it is, but we've got to win a couple games, so we'll see. Yeah, you do. So, hey, all right, let's get to the, some of the topics of the day, and we're going to unveil your wide receiver rankings, which were a treat last year, really came out nicely. And I think before we get into it, though, let's be clear with everyone, as we look ahead of the 2023 draft, of what you're actually doing here, because you're not on the

road 200 days a year trying to find a guy from an NAA school who might work in the sixth round, right? How are you coming at this as we rank the wide receivers today? Well, I'm taking really a synopsis from scouts I've talked to, reading some of the other journalist reports or rankings that I trust, trying to get a group of maybe 15 receivers. And then I'm going to give you what I think are my top five out of that 15. So yes, I'm not on the road beating the bush. I am looking at tape and evaluating them as an NFL team builder might do. And again, I caution this is my opinion, not anybody else's. So it's going to be different from a lot of things you've read and seen.

But that's the way a draft room is. Everybody has a different opinion. In fact, I wanted to make sure that all the scouts that we employed, we're buying their opinions. That's what we're paying for. So we don't want chalk. We don't want the same things. Not that we're looking to be different. That's not it.

but I want people to express exactly how they feel and have convictions for their evaluation. So that's what I've tried to do anytime we've done this exercise on the show. And, hey, people can take it for what it's worth. It's not the gospel by any means, but it is a true opinion of somebody who has evaluated these guys their whole life. Yeah. So the last three years, I think there's been 17 receivers go in the first round. And I was just looking back, I think that's the most in a three-year period.

I went back to about 1980. There's been some other periods, you know, 2000, kind of the late 2000s were a bunch of when, I think there was 25 or 26, maybe over five drafts or something like that. But there's been a lot. And there's kind of been a feeling of like, hey, we can find a guy, you know, here in the first round. I thought it was interesting now coming into this draft that here Baltimore signs OBJ. We're going to talk about that they sign a veteran receiver for a decent amount of money going into the draft. I don't know. Maybe that tells us what's in the draft.

What do you find just big picture? Is this a good group? Or do you feel like, hey, it's not maybe what it's been recently? Well, I found this year's group at this position for me to be a little underwhelming. Maybe only for me a couple guys that I'd be willing to invest the first round pick in. And I caution a little bit to listeners is they'll see other opinions out there. But I think a lot of times the Drafnik world is a team has a need. let's find a way to fill that need. So they might push some guys at any particular position up there to fill a need. And that indeed may be the way it works at the end of the day for some teams if they are

truly looking to fill a need, which I think is crazy at this stage of a draft. But it happens. So I think filling a need with a player at this position, and I'm speaking of wide receivers, could prove to be problematic in my opinion. In general, in looking at these guys, I think they have to bring, if you're going to pick a receiver in the first round, Mike, they got to bring a skill set to the table that's elite or special in some categories or multiple categories to be included. I just didn't see a lot of that with this year's group. Slot receivers, third guys in a rotation, maybe. I think there's some of those guys that can be

found outside the first round. But when it's about finding a guy or two that can be a number one or a number two fit on a particular team, that was a struggle for me. And there's some guys, like you said, that might be nice additions as third receivers that we'll talk about later. But you compared it to some of these groups that we've had in the past. Frankly, I don't see the Chrysalovies, the Garrett Wilson's, those kind of guys in this group. But there are a couple other comps that I'd be willing to talk through. Yep. And so last year, folks, Randy's top five were Chris Oliva, Garrett Wilson, Traylon Burks,

Jameson, and Drake London. And I think you had told us that a lot of- In that order, right? Yeah, in that order. Yeah. That Alave was a pro receiver already who would produce right out of the gates. One of the most polished you had seen in recent years reminded you of Tori Holt. We talked about the little things he did well, hand placement technique, instincts, ability, eat up cushion, smoothness, plays fast, has his body under control, can lower his pads, get in and out of a break.

I sound like an evaluator. You sound like Gil Brand. Holy man. I sound great. No, but I went through and listened because what I want to do when you do this is I want to set up what you're looking for. I got you. So, Alave came right out. 72 catches, 1,000 yards as a rookie.

You had Garrett Wilson just a tick later, a tick below him, just maybe a little bit more of a straight line player, but still, 83 catches, 1,100 yards, red of the gates. Those were your top two guys. So when you were a GM, a couple of the guys you drafted were Joey Galloway, Ted Ginn. I looked it up, Randy. Counting playoffs, each guy played more than 200 games in the league. So those are a couple of first round guys who speed. We're seeing some speed there. What are you looking for in a wide receiver?

And then from there, let's hear your top five and then we'll go through them each individually. Well, and you mentioned guys to me that bring some elite skills to the table. And a lot of times, people that are picking up here this high and have an inkling for a receiver are missing one or two of those skills sets on their own team. So in those two cases, I felt like just to give the listeners an idea, why would you draft Ted Ginn when you did? I felt like we were a really slow methodical team in Miami. It was for me akin to, remember the old electric football games we used to play as kids where they vibrate around all the men and they never, nobody ever breaks out of the pack? That was kind of our team, right? It was really slow motion.

And I knew Ted Ginn, even with some inadequacies would change the way people defended us. And I think we found out over 10 or 12 years of Ted getting running by people that, guess what? They have to defend you differently when you have that on the field. And the same for us in Seattle when we drafted Joey Galloway. We talked about game changing ability from all over. The negative on Joey was, well, he's going to have trouble beating jams. He's going to have trouble at the line of scrimmage with press.

Guess what? Don't allow him to be pressed. So move him around. Keep him on the move. Let him come out of the slot from motion. And we were able to do that really in Dennis Erickson's, scheme for the most part in Seattle. So there's ways to make these guys fit with what you want.

But there are some elements for me that set them apart. And one example going into last year was the Drake London deal, who Jake London ended up getting picked really high. I think Atlanta picked him. He was the number one guy. Way up there. But for me, that one never made sense because we can find big guys. What we can't find is fast guys.

And I think when you pick up that high, you better get big or. fast or both if you can't. And that's why I wasn't giant on Drake London. I thought I didn't see that speed that would make people defend you differently. So that's kind of the way I've come up with my list this year. And again, this is my opinion. People can have their own. Obviously, we encourage that.

But the guys who I found that I would have a high or a keen interest in, they better be able to run. That's the one thing that I think is irreplaceable for a first round pick. So my first guy that I came up with after studying, like I said, maybe a dozen, maybe 15 of these guys, is Jalen Hyatt, the kid from Tennessee. He's a junior, 6 foot 180 pounds, 185 for that, ran 445, had 15 TDs in tackles and 15 TDs in college, but averaged 18.9 per catch. And the things that I like about Hyatt, he's a little bit of a longer lean frame, but he catches outside his frame. His catch radius is really good. I think he's a really good route runner for a big guy, and I say big, he's six foot tall, can get in and out of breaks really good.

He has upside in the system that he's going to run in the NFL level. A lot of bubble screen catches at the college level. His route tree will expand when he gets to the next level. But the thing that set him apart from the rest of these guys for me is that he runs away from people. After the catch, he can clearly create separation, but yet he has enough quickness to get in and out of breaks and create separation as well. The kid can go. He tracks long balls really good. He has, like I said, really good feet for a bigger guy.

Great concentration on the sidelines to get both feet in to make catches. And the most important thing for a receiver is the kid can really catch. I thought his speed changed the way people had to defend Tennessee in college. And when they didn't throw it to him, or actually when they did throw it to him, he didn't catch it, he drew a bunch of PI calls because of that speed. So that speed to me being an elite level kind of makes people defend you differently. And it gives you a chance to even when long balls aren't completed or sometimes even when long balls aren't thrown, Mike, they have to defend you differently.

And they definitely have to play the ball better. When that speeds running by, guess what? They have a tendency to grab on. And that's in the long run going to get you and benefit you a lot. So he was my number one guy. I don't know where you saw him around the array of where people, you know, have him going. But for me, investing a first round pick in something like this with this skill set made sense. Yes.

So what I wanted to ask you about him was so last year when we talked about a lot of a polished product, you'd seen him do everything he had to do. Here, one of the things you said was his route tree will expand. So how do you project that? Because I don't believe, is he a one-year starter? I think Hyatt might have only. He was there multiple years, but he may not have been a starter for the whole time. And some of the reviews on him talked about, you know, that there's been a limited route

tree maybe through, I don't have no fault of his own. So how do you project that? You can see certain things about him. You're not concerned about him at being a polished professional with all the stuff he needs to do. If I had seen his pro day, Mike, and if I could see him work out, I think I'd have a better idea of that projection to answer your question. But think about this. James.

Yep. A similar frame to him, a similar running gate than that he has, a guy that can really go. But I see the foot quickness and the body control to be more than a straight line guy. Not that James and Williams isn't. I think he will be a good player too. But there's the similarity. There's the comp to me. That's a fair comparison in my mind.

And then you had said, hey, perfectly comfortable with a lave early, even in the top 10. where are we talking about in general, you know, top 10, first half of the first round, second half of the first round, where are you at? Again, I did not see any Olavis. I didn't see any Garrett Wilson. So for me, you're probably talking. And again, someone's got to get picked, right? So it depends kind of on how many other quality guys are in this draft at other positions.

And I'll be honest with you, I haven't seen a ton to date from the guys I've looked at. So in a normal draft, I would say this guy for me is a 15 to 20 guy. I don't know that he's a top 10 player for me. So somewhere in that mid to lower middle range in the first round just where I would have this guy rated. In my system, and we use a little, everybody uses a different numerical system. I give him a 1-2-6, which is mid-to-low first round. Okay. 1-2-6 and it goes up to 1-3-2?

It goes up to 1-3-5. 135, okay. The second guy for me, should I go to him now? Yeah, let's go to him, yeah. The second guy for me is Jordan Addison from USC. He's the pit transfer who's also a returner, 21 years old,

limited time at USC, but for my money, jumped off the screen to me as a punt returner. This kid can flat out run. He's six foot. He's a little light. He's 175. I think his numbers this year were 100 for 15, 93.

and 17 TDs, but he still has 25 starts in his career. I think he ran 4-4-9 at either his pro-day or the combine. But in terms of having sudden acceleration, a lot of similarities in style to Hyatt. I think I probably rated him as a late first round pick a lot because of the return stuff as well. This guy has speed to be a gadget guy, in other words, turn the corner for running reverses. He's nifty. He can make people miss with a ball in his hands.

I saw a little different athlete once he had the ball under his arm, not quite as smooth and sudden as a receiver per se by putting his foot in the ground. But when he has the ball like a run after catch or in a return fashion, he seems to me like he runs faster and is more accelerate. It can accelerate better and is more sudden. So I liked him. I think he'll end up being a first round pick at some point. like I said, because some of these guys have to get drafted.

But for me, he would be behind that group of guys last year, maybe with the exception of London, because this guy can run. But I have him up there mainly because of that return asteris that goes with him being a pretty polished receiver, but he can flat out run as well. Yeah. Now, that's interesting to be the return part because the shoot, it seems like the league's trying to get the return game out of the game, right? Yeah, that's true.

They almost have to be thinking of that of like, hey, you know, they're trying to change the touchback rules and take that out of it. So it is, I think of like the great guys who could return coming out like a Tim Brown, you know. I mean, just an incredible amount of value off of that. So we'll see how that evolves in the league. Who's your number three guy? My third guy is a different style and a little different flavor. But now we're talking about more down the list and probably at the top of the second round for me is Quentin Johnson from TCU.

He's 6.4. He's 2.15, 449 speed, but a big physical dude who can run. Think of Plexicoboros for me in dating ourselves, but that's kind of for me what this kid is. He's very nifty with the ball in his hands for a big guy especially. He has speed. He can run. He's a little bit of a raw route runner because of the scheme that they play in, a tendency to drop a few key balls. I would say his hands are somewhat inconsistent. But I see a suddenness who can beat press.

He high points the ball really good. I think his ability to find soft spots doesn't get enough credit. He has good football IQ. He's not down easy after the catch. He breaks a lot of arm tackles. Always falls forward at the end of his runs, which is a little thing. But yet, you know how we're running back? And we judge these guys sometimes where they're always getting hit in it into the run.

Marcus Allen used to always find a way to fall forward for two more yards. That's the way this big kid is. He finds a way to fall forward. And if he's going to run out of bounds and get hit, he will take the contact on and get another yard or two. So I like that about him. But if there was one negative, it was his inconsistent hands. And I have talked to a couple scouts who had a little bit of the same view of his catching skills. And that makes them nervous investing a high first round pick.

Yep. Okay. Who do you have four? Four for me is a kid from BC. And a lot of people have him higher than this. But that's Zay Flowers. 510, 170 pounds, 4-4-2 speed. Zay for me is one of those slot guys who you're going to have to scheme open a little bit, who maybe is your third guy. Again, it is a big man's game, Mike,

and I know people probably get tired of me saying that because I'm not a fan of smaller guys, but at 510, 170 pounds, he's going to have to get away from people at an elite level because when they get him, they're going to crush him just because he's a small dude. but he can make defenders miss. He has really good burst off line of scrimmage. He catches really well, especially in his hands. So I'd say this. He plays a little bigger.

He's quick, not super fast. I don't see the 4-4 speed on tape. I see a guy that plays to about a 4-5-0 speed, but he's shifty. He's nifty. I think the one drawback for me is that sometimes the incidental contact that these guys face, once they're in a route or trying to run anything beyond six or eight yards,

the defender's contact bothers him a little bit just because he's a smaller dude. And again, that comes with the fact that it is a big man's game. But he's probably a little more smooth than sudden. And that's okay in space. But to get away from people to beat Man for Man Coverage, you're going to have to be sudden as well. So there was some hangups with me on him. But for these receivers as a group, and I had him in the second round, he came in fourth for me. Well, so the question there is, so Jordan Addison also is a smaller guy, but has the return thing so we can put that asterisk by him.

Does Zayflowers seem more vulnerable to you or play smaller, sort of speak, than a Jordan Addison? Well, he's 5'10, and I have Jordan Addison at six foot. And so I think Jordan Addison's a little longer and his catching diameter is a little better. I didn't see the incidental contact slowing up Jordan as much. And again, I like Zayflowers. I just couldn't invest a top pick in him because of that size. And I do think that contact, he struggled to fight through it a little more than a guy like Jordan Addison. And I know their weight similar.

That's why I was going off of weight. But you're right. The height difference is different. And, you know, Randy, I mean, for us to get through the top four and, you know, you drafted Joey Galloway from Ohio State. You, you know, you drafted. Diggin. Yeah. Sean Springs.

I know. Last year, your number two guys were Alave. You had Alave and then you had Garrett Wilson. So are you saying I might lose my Columbus, Ohio discount cards? Well, Jackson Smith and Jigba is number one on some of these lists for some of them. And we had to go through, I don't know how many minutes that was of talking about receivers. I mean, I bet you a lot of people listening were going, Mueller's lost it. I mean, he doesn't even know who's in the draft.

So you've got. That wouldn't be the first time I was accused of that by a media guy. Media guy. That's exactly right. Those media guys. So Jackson Smith and Jigma, to you though, is fifth. Why do you have them there? Maybe others have him higher. Yeah, I think probably production more than anything has him at the top of more people's list. And I'm probably a little more. I'm a harder sell maybe than some because of the production is one thing. But on the skill set itself, I have them at 6-1-200, 4-5. I think his play speed is more like 4-5-5. For me, he was more of a possession slot guy. There was nothing dynamic about his athleticism, but he does have a great feel for the game. I think the ball placement for him.

If it's not right on, I see a little negativity in body language that I didn't like, and I'm going to the negatives first. But I just think this guy, he has, he's going to play. Don't get me wrong. but I saw a guy that's maybe not the most natural hand catcher, not as sudden as I would like. I think beating people one-on-one will be a struggle for this kid. I think the system got him open a lot, and I can't ding him for that because he does get open. And I think he's got a great feel for finding soft spots and for beating zones and sitting into soft spots and being available because of that.

I just think his spatial awareness is really good. and that'll benefit him at the NFL level as well. He's a very efficient route runner. But like I said, he sold the mask to go beat someone one-on-one. He'll catch a hitch against Penn State and get caught by a linebacker, and that kind of bothers me. So I didn't see the dynamic athleticism that would force me to say, hey, this guy's a first round pick for sure.

Like I say, I think he'll play. I think he might be the best of that second group. And I understand why people have him at the top, just not for me, maybe the flavor that I walk into when I go to the ice cream shop, you know. I wish we had a camera on your face when he got caught by the linebacker. I would like to see that look right there. I'd see a little pause. Beeler puts his head down and makes a few notes.

I definitely ran it back and had to look up who the player was that caught him. Who was it? It was a linebacker from Penn State number 12. I do know that. Yeah, yeah. Well, you have to check now with the Jersey numbers. Is that a linebacker? No doubt about that.

I just didn't see the dynamic ability, Mike, that I saw in Alave or in Wilson. And I want to beat this kid up. He's going to play in the NFL. So it is what it is. I just didn't see him as an elite skill carrier of any one particular skill. Yep. So to recap, Jalen Hyatt, number one, Jordan Addison, number two, Quentin Johnson, Johnston, number three, Zay Flowers, number four, Jackson Smith, and Jigba, number five.

we did discuss then about the ordering of that and why you had them where they were. You also made a little bit of a side list here at the wide receiver's position, which is really extra credit. Those wasn't even asked. What did we got here? What were you thinking? Well, it kind of concludes what we had talked about earlier in the receivers being slot guys, whether it's Flowers or Smith, Enigba. but it's kind of an extension of that list, two or three guys that kind of jumped out

at me, to be honest with you. A kid named Parker Washington from Penn State, a stronger, 212-pound guy who is physical, who's not afraid to go over the middle, who can separate from coverage. I thought he did a really good job of running the routes that they asked him to do, is really nifty-footed. He reminded me of Brian Blades, and you remember that style, Mike, that we had in Seattle for many years, kind of like that. He's going to be able to run all the routes.

He might not be the complete one or two, but he's going to be a productive player. The next kid I had in that same vein was Nathaniel Dell. And excuse me, Parker Washington is also a return guy. Same with Nathaniel Dell from Houston. He's another return guy, 510, a little smaller at 170 pounds, runs 449, can really run in and out of breaks. I think he'll be a problem for people to cover on third downs. A little bit like, oh, who's the guy the commanders drafted from Penn? Penn State last year.

Oh, yeah. You didn't like him as much. I didn't. I liked him, but didn't like him as early as they picked him. And that's these other guys kind of fit with that, if you ask me, Parker Washington, Nathaniel Dell, even Josh Downs from North Carolina. These guys are, for me, second and third round players that are going to feel. You're talking about Dotson.

Dotson was the guy. Yes, yes, yes, from Penn State. So this is a secondary list again for the listener's second and third round guys, Josh Downs from North Carolina. A very similar, really good on whips and pivot routes, catches low balls, catches in his hands really good. Shoot, he run 4-4-8. So he's just 5-10, another 170-pound guy, but very productive with 94 catches. He'll go up and catch outside his frame.

And I think he's a guy in particular that probably plays bigger than his frame is, but I get a little nervous about these 5-10 guys. So you have to find ways to free him up. I thought the kid from Houston Dell is the best. outrunner of all these guys and as a return guy was really sudden. So this will be an interesting group for me, at least to follow. Maybe I put our listeners to sleep, but I want to follow these guys into the draft. And I'll only add this, Mike, when these guys get drafted is not the end.

That doesn't vindicate evaluators or collaborate with any evaluations because that's just the starting point. We've got to see how good these guys are. And obviously, if a guy gets first picked first or second, he's going to get plenty of opportunities. But I want to see how these guys. develop later in their, you know, in that first year, second year and come back to kind of just see where these, some of these guys are a year from now. Yeah, I like the list. I think there was, I googled a couple of them, right? They, you know, they're not on everybody's list. So,

uh, that's, that's great. It's a good run through them. But, uh, as you look at the group, though, a little bit underwhelming, maybe. For me, it may not be for others. Just for me as, as an actual picker of players and as a team builder, uh, it, uh, it, As a group, I thought I was hopefully get more. That's all. Get more completeness. Good list, good bonus list of wide receivers. We're going to talk about a wide receiver already in the league who needs no introduction.

I mean, I think O'Dell Beckham Jr. is one of those guys who you just say OBJ, right? Or you just have a one word or a one phrase and people can tell you five things about him. He signs a one year, $15 million contract with the Baltimore Ravens, who have a new offensive coordinator in Tonn. Todd Monken, who are navigating the Lamar Jackson situation. Cynically, Randy, I thought, okay, is this a team buying some PR? Hey, we got OBJ for our quarterback. You can't say we're not trying to support them when maybe is OBJ really OBJ? Do you like it, Randy, or what?

I actually do like it a lot. And I put myself in their shoes. Sometimes it comes down to this, Mike, and we can analyze all the particulars of why this amount of money was paid. Why did they do this? what about the caps, this and that. Sometimes you've got to buy a good player. That's as simple as that. Sometimes you have to throw caution to the wind and just say,

hey, maybe there's not a first round receiver that we're going to get at whenever they pick. What is it? 19 or 20 or something like 22. Yeah. Well, to me, I would back that up after looking at these guys. I don't think there's an OBJ out there. So that part of it makes sense. But the other thing is let's just stop beating around the bush and try to nickel and dime

and try to improve a position that we have struggled. to improve the last four or five years, let's just go pay a guy that's healthy now, that looked great in a workout two weeks ago, that as a proven commodity, we think can help us not only re-sign our own quarterback, but help our offense as well and our new offensive coordinator. So I see it as a win-win. And yeah, maybe people can say, oh, you could have got him for a lot less. But here's the other thing. And maybe OBJ had half of this offered to him. They needed a quick decision and get it done right now. And what's the best way to do that? Open a window, of $15 million for one year.

That's more than he was probably ever thinking he was going to get. And guess what? He didn't hear a bunch of rumors about this ahead of time, did you? It was a done deal right away. And that's why I think they had to excessively pay, and I've been in that chair to get a player. Remember when we signed Chad Brown, the linebacker from the Steelers back in whenever that was in the 90s in Seattle?

We didn't know if we could get him, but I had him come to Seattle first, and we weren't going to let him leave. And we were going to pay more than anybody probably else was going to pay, but if he walked out, he was going to risk losing that money. And I remember Mickey Loomis, who was our cap guy at the time, sliding a check across the table and saying, here's $7 million, Chad. You can walk out right now if you want, but Michael Barrow is the next line, run a linebacker,

and he's due in tomorrow. And maybe that's the kind of approach they took with OBJ. You don't have to take this $15 million, but if not, here's what we're going to do. ObJ took it in a heartbeat. And sometimes you've got to get a quick deal and it's all about time. time. Yeah. So do you think then that, do you think that how does this factor into the Lamar situation for you, I guess? I don't think it factors at all. I don't think, I don't think, it doesn't factor for me if you're OBJ. I think he was going for the 15 million. For the team.

Yeah, for the team though. For the team standpoint. I think it definitely helps them. It gives a weapon of public perception. And maybe that part of it is true that you mentioned. Maybe we can can keep the wolves at bay public a little bit. But I think OBJ is. a good player and I think he still has a lot in him. So it makes sense for me, he's already our number one receiver. All of a sudden, Bateman, the kid we drafted a year or two ago, whenever that was, is now the number two. So we've upgraded a position of great need for us and we don't have to waste time in a draft developing a player. This guy's ready to go. So I think it makes sense. Unless we have the cap room, so let's do it. So I'm going to ask you in a minute about what made him a great

receiver when he was really at his peak and then what he retains of that. Because when, When you think about elite receivers or number one receivers, do you kind of think about guys who can separate, right? Or a game plan consideration every week. That's what you were talking about with Galloway or Ted Ginn. Or they're just the guys who can just make a ton of receptions through their size or they're going to move the chains. Catch even when they're covered. Yeah. Catch even when they're covered.

Or maybe in today's game, if you're the Patriots, you can even have a slot guy who's just such, such volume or a Cooper Cup. And he can do a lot of things. But they're going to get the ball so many times to get it. But as I analyze this, I kind of to set expectations for O'Dell at the risk of overthinking it, which sometimes I do. I just think there's such a divide in what OBJ used to be and what he's been. And if you look at his, I did this, his first 62 games playing, he's number one in the history of the league for yards, Randy, ahead of Randy Moss and Jerry Rice and all of these Hall of Famers, historic pace. He was averaging almost 90-some yards a game, which is off the charts.

Hall of Fame receivers, Randy, averaged about 75 yards a game. He was blowing that away. And since then, he's played 34 games, and he's averaged less than 50 yards a game, which is 50s average for a starting receiver. So what are they getting? So I would say two things. One, enter Kevin Stefansky's offense. And that may have stalled his career slightly.

Two, he did blow out a knee somewhere along the way, right? And they struggled with an offense in New York at the end of his time as well. I saw a guy with the Rams who on Super Bowl Sunday might have been as good a player that was on the field. He was running. He was catching. He was setting people up route running. wise. He was getting open through separation and with instinctive feel. I saw a pretty complete player by the end of that Ram's Super Bowl run. Now, obviously, we know he blew out his ACL in the Super Bowl game

and hasn't come back since. I'm assuming that they think they're going to get most of that back. I mean, ACLs today aren't what they were 10 years ago. So people do recover from that. I do think there was a little bit of fake chatter going last year that he was going to help somebody. I can understand why Nobody took him then. I don't think he was ready. But I do think he'll be ready this time around. And I think they're actually getting a legitimate player. Now, does he have to be a number one receiver? I think that's a little bit of a misnomer. I think he'll be their best receiver. So sometimes it's in the eyes of what you have too, right? He's the most complete guy. They obviously have given him a physical. They think he's going to be healthy. So I don't think that part slows him down. Will he be a little rusty? Of course, he won't have played in 18 months when they actually go on the field.

So I think they're getting a good player. That's just from an evaluative standpoint going on everything I've seen to this date. I think I can rationalize the drop in numbers that you mentioned more so than I see on tape for sure. And so the other thing is 15 million sounds like a lot of money, which of course it is. I mean, for any of us, 15 million would be amazing. But nowadays, that's the number 22 receiver in the league. Isn't that interesting? We think 15 million, what are they doing?

That's the number 22 APY average per year in the league right now. So one of the things I did was like, I looked at the last 10 years, what do those guys produce? What is the 22nd receiver in the league? And really, it's 58 catches for 778 yards and four touchdowns on average. So it's not like he has to come in there, Randy, and have 1,800 yards, right? I mean, he could go in there and have 900, 1,000 yards, and that's a good year, right? So let's say your numbers are the over and under. You're willing to bet the over or under on that right now?

I'm taking the under because I don't think he's going to be on the field. And I question about the offense. Why don't you think he's going to be on the field? Well, because I don't think he's been able to stay on the field. I'm worried about to help. Oh, you think he's going to get hurt again? Yeah, he's played a small number of games over the last three seasons, including none last year. I got you.

So I think the risk is that he would be under. And then do you have any questions about the offense, about where Lamar Jackson's at? Is Lamar Jackson going to report in the middle of August when he hasn't even learned the offense? offense. I agree with that. But I would say this, let's table that till after the draft. Okay. I just think there's going to be a great discussion had after the draft, depending on what the Ravens do. Because I believe the Ravens said, we have to consider a quarterback. We have some. He didn't say how many. He said, we have some rated in our top 31. So I don't know what has to. I mean, I know exactly what has to happen. One of those guys has to filter toward the top

when it's their turn to pick. And they have to be fine with the one or two that they really like. So I just think there may be a rookie quarterback option in, maybe it's not in round one, but in round two that they could get ready to play in this system. But I think, yeah, I think there's part of the story is yet to be told on who the quarterback's going to be. But I agree with what you're saying. I don't think Lamar will be there until the regular season.

I do think it will be a struggle for him to come in September 1 and figure it all out. maybe the relationship between OBJ and Lamar gets him there sooner, or maybe the Ravens just have something up their sleeve that they can throw a life preserver to Lamar and actually get a deal done with him. Maybe it's a one-year deal to come right now and we won't put the tag on you next year. Something like that, you know, there'll be some crazy things. Everyone likes to be sort of, I think everyone loves it when they can kind of be smart and everybody.

I think the Ravens, I've never been able to do that. Yeah, a lot of people can. But I think the Ravens relish it. Yeah, maybe so. And I think that they, it's interesting you say that because they don't have a lot of picks this year. You know, they don't even have a second round pick. I think they've got the 22nd pick and the 86 pick. And then we're talking four, five, and six rounders.

So I don't know what they're going to do. I don't know what ammo they have. But this was a little bit of an aggressive move before the draft with a big name player. And they sort of, I think you're right. Like, what else are they doing? Sometimes you look at a, we evaluate one move. without knowing what the bigger plan even is, right? And maybe there's stuff that's going to go on.

Maybe they've made some decisions internally. Could be. Have some sort of an alternative that makes, or a different plan. I just think they are interesting. And this move was interesting. Yeah, I agree. Anyway, from that, another move happening involving a highly drafted player in Jeff Okuda. The cornerback picked third overall by the Detroit Lions a few years ago, I believe in 2020,

is traded by Detroit, Lions having signed a couple of corners and free agency, to the Atlanta Falcons. Randy, I heard some chatter. Word on the street is, you've watched some Akuta tape. What do you think of this move? Well, for me, as an outsider, and I don't know what makes him tick, I don't know how he fits with the rest of the guys in that building. I don't know their feelings on him medically. If you just watch the tape, just pure him playing football, he's pretty good, Mike. I mean, kids can still run. He's athletic.

He's a solid man-to-man cover guy. He can play press. He can play off. He'll jump in the box and tackle. He's not afraid. I think he shows burst to run with about any of the top receivers that you want him to run with deep and on other routes. You can question his production a little bit because the first year was a bad year. The second year he missed a year.

But last year, I think he was a pretty productive player. Now, is that worth $8 million or whatever it is they're paying him? Probably not. And maybe they determined they're not going to be able to have him beyond this year anyway. So we're going to send him on his way. But I feel like this is maybe one of those that emotionally maybe he hasn't lived up to billing. But if you just put all that noise out of it and just watch him play football, he's pretty good. so I can kind of see it from both sides.

Yeah. Yeah. The way you described them, why would Detroit want that type of player? There must be something else that we don't know that. Let me ask you this. Does Detroit seem like with their coach the kind of place where a decision might be made on an emotional level? It does. And I'm not being critical of that.

I'm just saying sometimes we've got to take a step back and make a business decision. Maybe this is just clear lit that we can't resign him. So let's move him now and get a fifth round pick. Seems pretty light for me. I might rather have the player and let him go in free agency and get a compensatory pick, which might be higher than a fifth. I think someone would take him. But maybe there's some stuff we don't know about him.

But I saw on film a really good player. Yeah, it is interesting because he's a player who's going to be eligible for that fifth year option decision coming up in about another three weeks. And those rules have changed now where when you do that, fully guaranteed. Yeah. And the number for him, I believe, is $14.3 million. So not, you know, it's a big chunk of cap, but it's not undoable for starting corner in the NFL.

It could be interesting to see what happens there. The Falcons have a corner that they already drafted who's really good, right? AJ Terrell's there. From a couple years ago, yeah. From a couple years ago. So interesting piece for them. Do you kind of like what the lions are doing? or what the Falcons are doing overall?

I'm lukewarm on what they're doing. I do like the addition of this because I think he gives them athleticism that they don't have and depth as well. I struggle with offensively what they want to be and what they want to do. I don't love the pain of guards and the drafting of tight ends and slower receivers. And again, they may say, oh, both those guys are fast, explosive players. I just didn't see it. So I'm kind of lukewarm with what they want to be on offense. I'm not a giant Desmond Ritter guy either.

He's played a ton of ball, and it seems like his progression is the same now as it was a couple years back at Cincinnati. Yep. Okay. Before we get to the GM notebook, which everyone's on the edge of their seat for, as always, including me. I obviously didn't read it. Usually I steal from it. I didn't even read it because earlier in the show, we had to cut something out. I sort of bringing up a thing that Randy's got in the GM notebook.

So it's going to be excellent, and some of it would be a surprise even to me. But I wanted to circle back on something we talked about last week regarding the Houston Texans who hold the number two pin in the draft. And when we talked about quarterbacks, Randy, it was clear you'd be comfortable like a lot of people taking CJ Stroud, taking Bryce Young, whatever one you like best, as high as the one and two picks. We know, obviously, that Carolina is taking a quarterback. We think that Houston really needs a quarterback hasn't had one for a while since trading to Sean Watson. So last week I alluded to something that the Houston-based draft analyst Lance Zerline said, which was basically that he could see the Texans taking a non-quarterback, someone other than a quarterback with the second pick depending on how things go.

And since then, I've seen about five or six kind of people on the fringes of the draft world, you know, some of them, you know, formerly with the team or maybe they're just in media, kind of hinting at the same things. We always grain of salt, the pre-draft smoke screens. We know there's a lot of stuff out there that may not actually be true or could be serving agendas. But it's persistent enough that it made me just think about the situation in Houston. And on the surface, hey, got to have a quarterback, the general manager is in his third year. He's on his third coach, whatever.

But I just wondered, is this Domeko Ryan's franchise now? They finally, and now I think we would say they have a long-term coach there. We weren't buying that the last two coaches were long term. And I wondered, is Casario the long-term GM? Is this going to be a pairing for the long-term? Or are we just really on D'Amico Ryan's plan now? Because remember, Casero came in, and it was about erasing what the Texans had been. It was about the Patriot way.

D'Macon's is a bridge to their past. He is a Texan. He's a former Texans player. So I just wonder, do we need to zoom out on Houston when we see? start hearing these things, what they could do with the number two pick and it might not be a quarterback. Where do you think that stuff comes from? Do you buy it? Do you think that maybe this is a place that there could be some changes in Houston that we're not even talking about right now after we get through the draft? Well, there could be. I don't know much about that. But if you apply

what I think to be their way of acquiring players and having been in Miami with Nick Sabin, who is very close with Bill Belichick and whose system we adapted for the most part in Miami when Nick was there. I know that that drafting system comes with some caveats and it comes with some lettering systems that doesn't allow you to draft undersized guys, smaller guys, guys that don't fit the bill. And we'd say aren't clean players, especially at the draft. So do you think Nick Casario now is all of a sudden not going to acquire players under the same umbrella type thinking that they did in New England for 20 years? I think not. I think they will use some of those same formulas. So when somebody says to me that, like you, that, hey, they may not draft a quarterback,

doesn't surprise me at all. Because if it's not, because if it's Bryce Young, he doesn't fit their criteria for what they've used in New England for 20 years. They would not draft anybody with that size at any position with not having a red flag on it. And the way it works is eventually those red flags come off during the process. There's no way you can take the red flag off of this. He's not going to grow another two inches between now and two weeks from now. So that's still going to be there. So I think they're writing the. fence here a little bit saying if C.J. Stroud's there, maybe we take them. If not, there may be a cleaner player at another position that makes more sense that we've used as our formula for years.

So it wouldn't shock me if they don't draft a quarterback at all at number two. Wow. It'd be something because when you have two that most people seem to think are worth taking that high and you have a chance to take one. Wow. The Bryce Youngling is really hard, Mike. The Bryce Young one for those of us in football, not TV analysts, not players that just throw stuff out there. For those of us that have been in that seat, he is not only an outlier. He's an outlier for a hundred years. And nobody's ever done that. So you can say anything you want about it, but it's still a leap of faith that a lot a guy struggled to make. Well,

Kyler Murray went number one, though. Kyler Murray, number one, as a system quarterback in Cliff Kingsbury's setup. I don't know that they're going to run that in Houston. So there's issues there as well. And I'll be honest with you,

I think 25 of the 30 teams would not have considered Kyler Murray as the number one option. And he wouldn't go number one right now, at least the way his career. Not at all. And again, that might hurt some of the Bryce Young,

you know, conversation as well. The other thing I thought was so interesting is, you know, we have indie there at four where they're kind of in a no man's land. But if they want to get to two, they have to deal with a division rival. That would be difficult too, right? I mean, they can't do it. They can't do it.

The highest they could get to is three, right? Might be high enough for Bryce Young if the Texans don't pick him. So you never know. You might have to trade in there for Bryce Young. Wouldn't someone else get in there for him or not? It all depends on their system and how their beliefs and convictions are. are we going to bounce outside of the things that we believe in and have used to build our team for forever and now to draft this outlier?

Maybe Carolina can trade the number one pick to Houston. Hey, maybe Carolina picks Bryce Young and it all goes away. I don't know, but I would struggle with that. All right. So what's in the GM notebook this week, Randy? Well, a couple things that I made note of, mainly things that I hear it around and you hear it do. All these rumors of calls and communications, you know, Arizona has been called by six teams and this and that. I got news for you.

These calls happen every day and they're happening every year. They always have. There's nothing newsworthy of those. These are big decisions. And I always said, I'm going to call as many teams as I can ahead of time so that they can think through these scenarios where time isn't on, you're not on the clock. You don't have emotions. They need to think through all these things and align their people within their own building that this is a possible. So, you know, whether you're making a first round pick draft move on draft day, it doesn't have to happen in 10 minutes.

everybody's already thought it through. And you can also mock through some drafts. What if we did this, here's what could lay out for us beyond where we're talking about drafting. So I just think these things are part of the everyday process. And maybe it's news because people don't know about it. But I just chuckle every time I hear somebody say, well, these six teams have called and they're interested in doing this.

I got news for you. Everybody calls everybody to pitch their scenarios so they can think it through ahead of time. So how far ahead for obviously, if we're talking about the top couple of picks, But would you even be making those calls if you're holding the 16th pick? Are you still making those calls about what's around you? Maybe I want to get to 10 or to 8. I'm only calling the teams that I have ammo to get. I'm not calling the first couple teams because I don't have enough ammo to get there.

So realistically, you've got to figure out what are you willing to give? And then you approach those teams about the possibility of it. And the other thing is, if it happens to be that a player is involved, that team has to do a medical background check as well. both ends of it. So I want, I don't want it. They're not going to be able to do that 15 minutes on the clock. So they will, because you have to take a player as is. So you've got to do some homework if a player's name comes up that, hey, we got to do a background check, a medical check. What has been in this guy's past so that when we get on the clock, we can actually make a legitimate business

decision. Could you be doing that now or would be waiting until the week of the draft or a week before or does it really matter? Well, I would make the initial calls, the calls without names now. I probably wouldn't bring up names until that week before the draft. But again, you have to do it in time where the other teams can sort some things out. Yeah. Okay. Second item in the GM notebook this week. The other thing that I talked about, and we hit on it earlier, that the Lamar Jackson deal really is unlikely to happen right now.

For me, for one reason. All these GMs, all these scouting staffs are hunkered down now in draft mode. They don't have time to nurse a deal out of Lamar and his crew right now to try to make something happen before the draft, in my opinion. Maybe there's a window of 24 hours before the actual draft where you have the hay in the barn that you could get something like this done. But do you think you can make a deal with Lamar in 24 hours? Probably not, in my opinion. It's going to be really hard. I think it's going to be an all longer grinding trail to make a deal like this happen.

And nobody has the time to do that right now. What about, you know, a bigger, more strategic, obviously, you know, what you're talking about mostly would be a resigning of Lamar with the Ravens, right? What about? For a signing and an offer sheet that you present to the Ravens. Yeah. What about a, what about, let's just say they want to see a trade proposals. A trade proposal or something like, look, we're not sure if we can get, we got to keep us on the down low.

We have, we can't. It's hard to even get to talk to Lamar right now. But would, you know, hey, maybe, Indy, would you have, you know, what would you have, you know, what would you be willing to do, Andy? You know, just before we even talk about a contract, would you be, and they could then, you know, There could be some sort of figuring out some strategies along those lines, right? Yep. And I think the thinking there is we'll take him on his deal the way it is and maybe not have to do an extension.

Is that what you mean? Where he'd go in and sign the tender and get traded elsewhere? Yeah, but the new team has to be willing to then blank check them, right? Yeah, it's a hard deal. That's what I'm saying. All these dynamics are deep and heavy and I don't know how we sort it out when everybody's a little bit in a different mode. See, I think the Lamar deal itself needs a lot. a lot of TLC, a lot of massaging, a lot of working through it on all ends.

And I just think it's probably meant to be happening after the draft, if at all. Well, certainly if a podcast went longer, we could figure out that and everything readily. We could solve everybody's problems. Probably so. But we can only do so much, we can only do so much work in one show. And I think our time is up. You got anything else for us? No, Mike.

It's a good show. I enjoyed it. Hopefully we can do it again next week with a few more evaluations and stuff. that little listeners want to hear about. Absolutely. So next week we'll probably do running backs, would you think? Yeah, maybe running backs and tight ends both.

We can kind of group those together. Yeah. That sounds great. Yeah. We'll make our way through this. Awesome. So everybody, you can find Randy Mueller on Twitter at Randy Mueller underscore. You can see some of his work at MuellerF football.com.

You can watch his XFL team, the Seattle Sea Dragons, wins the next game, Randy. Sunday in St. Louis, a big loser-leaf town match with the St. Louis Battlehawks. So we're fighting for a last playoff spot the two teams are and we play each other. So it'll be fun. Great.

That'll be fun. I will not be asking you for suites in St. Louis. I won't be making that trip, but we'll probably be watching the game because we really had a good time. Awesome. For Randy Mueller, I'm Mike Sando.

You can find me on the Athletic and on Twitter at Sando NFL. We'll talk to you guys next week. This was the Athletic Football Show.