The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Football GM: Super Bowl LVIII, NFL Hall of Fame and Super Bowl predictions

Episode Date: February 10, 2024

What will Super Bowl 58 come down to? In this Super Bowl 58 edition of the Football GM, Mike and Randy discuss the matchup of the 49ers vs. Chiefs and explore the various possibilities of what we'll see this Sunday. From there, the guys share their thoughts on the 2024 NFL Hall of Fame class. Then the discussion shifts to The Athletic's book "The Football 100". And lastly, we wrap things up SB 58 predictions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show's Football GM podcast. Welcome everybody to the Super Bowl 58 edition of the Football GM podcast. Mike Sando here along with the GM, Randy Mueller. And Randy, I'm in Vegas, and you can tell, right? On our little video link up here, how am I doing? You're doing great. The only thing missing is an Elvis picture behind here or something like that because you look like you just came in off the street and ran hard all night.

and you are, you're looking sharp, but you're ready to roll, man. I'm telling you, it looks like you're in Vegas. When in Rome, do as the Romans, baby. I got this shirt, everybody. It's a little bit out of my comfort zone. It was encouraged by my wife, who, you know, she has my best interest at heart. She knows, but it's a little outside my zone, but we're rolling with it. We're happy to be.

Yeah, go ahead. I was going to say that is the theme of the week, right? Everything's a little different. It's Super Bowl week. We all can dress a little bit. hey, I did a podcast yesterday from Ireland with my new friends, Neil and Tomo, Chiefs, big Chiefs fans, giving them a shout out because I know he's riding a train this morning going somewhere from Dublin, but yeah, it was awesome.

And all of our week is a little bit off because of this game, and maybe we have two weeks to store it up. But it's a cool time, no doubt. It really is. So we're going to, of course, talk about the matchup in the beginning. I think we'll hit our picks at the end. We've got notes on the 49ers. We're going to talk Hall of Fame.

Randy's got some good insights with some guys who made it. And we're going to talk honestly about some guys that, you know, did or didn't make it and whether they should, you know, be in the mix based on Randy's e-vow, because he was obviously in the middle of all those evals as a pro director and as a GM and other capacities over his nearly 40 years in the league. So that's going to be great. And as a Hall of Fame selector, I love that type of feedback. That's the type of research we need.

Oh, be careful, Mikey. I don't know, man. I mean, you don't want me in the room. Trust me. You do not want me in the room. And your compadres in there would throw me out for giving my opinion. No. Well, we had, you know, polians in there and it gets a little tense sometimes.

Bill, you know, Bill can get a little edgy sometimes in there. There's some agendas at work. I can tell you that. Some big agendas in there. Yes. So we're also going to talk about, you know, coming into the season, the athletic published a football 100 book on the 100 greatest players. and we ended up throwing Patrick Holmes low on that list.

I want to revisit that and see how high we would put him now, and especially if he wins this Super Bowl. Of course, we got the news of Mike Zimmer going to the Cowboys. We are loaded with good conversations. Let's just head right into the Super Bowl week, Randy. Let's talk a little bit about the game. What do you got? Well, I think that is the thing that gets pushed to the back burner, right?

Except for us old heads that actually care about matchups and rosters and personnel, the way it shakes out during the week. I just think it's a fascinating game. And as you know, the underdog is covered, I think, the last three Super Bowls or something like that. And when this line came out, I found myself, because I had kind of done a little work on matchups leading up to it, I was shocked that the chiefs were the underdog. I thought they were the better team, but that may prove out, I don't know.

Have you just out of curiosity, have you found people around there that are picking the 49ers in Vegas now? No. It almost scares me. Like, what do people know that we don't know? And so every year before the Super Bowl, I will call four or five, six coaches that have,

you know, a lot of times played these teams or prepped for them. They've watched the film. They have a feel for them. And I'll get their kind of predictions on background. And I'll write a piece about it. So I had four guys this week, and they all went with the chiefs.

So it's interesting. I think if the 49ers win as a favorite, they can correctly say no one predicted we would win, even though they're the favorite. I think they can frankly say, doesn't it feel that way? Yeah, it's almost like an us against the world. When you factor in all the things that have happened to them or we've at least heard as narratives throughout the week, the chiefs are, you know, fighting an uphill battle to get respect and they're the favorites in the game. So kind of crazy. I think just not to bore our listeners, but a couple things that jump out at me.

And we know Kyle Shanahan's offense. We know how it's predicated on playing, play action passing and such. But I think the game comes down to who can run the ball. That's what I really think, Mike. And I think to run the ball, the 49ers really start with the simplicity of they're going to run a toss play and not to get into the weeds too deep, but the toss play is effective at all levels of ball. High school, college, pro, it doesn't really matter. But the thing about the simple toss play is defenses have to figure out a way of how they're going to play.

play it. And I guarantee you, that's what Kyle Shanahan wants to know is how the chiefs are going to defend the edges when they turn and pitch the ball to the running back. Because what happens is defensive ends or edge players, as we call them nowadays, will either fight, fight, fight outside, not to get hooked, not to get hooked. And as soon as they jump outside or do that, they're going to get pushed outside and the back will run up underneath them. So those singular singular blocks on the edges determine where the running game is going to come from and how a team proceeds. And I just think if you want to look at something in the game, look at the running game of the 49ers early in this game and see how the chiefs defend setting the edge. I think that'll

tell you a long, a long bit as to how this game's going to go. Interesting. I want to flip that around too, Randy, because Kansas City has, you know, Isaiah Pacheco, and I kind of think of him as a slashing inside runner a little bit, but the 49ers have shown, you know, they're defense has been vulnerable to getting their ends pinned, you know, in there too. And we shot Detroit do that. So how do you think that matchup goes to the Chiefs maybe run the ball a little bit outside in this game? Well, I think they'd like to. I think that they will, but I don't know that that's Pacheco's strength. The thing that I like about the Chief's running game is it is run by design. And those backs aren't really creative backs. They're going to run exactly where the play is blocked

to get. So I do think part of their script is to find out if we can do certain things. And again, the running game to me is fascinating because they're different styles. The backs are a little bit different. Obviously, McCaffrey is a little more dynamic and kind of create some things on his own. I think Pacheco is known for running hard, finding vision and coming downhill, but not really jumping around and making things happen. So it'll be fun to see. I think Kyle really wants to run the ball. I don't know if Andy does. I always get the impression it hurts Andy to call running plays, but it works and it makes his offense work. He's done it more though, Randy. I was talking to I do a weekly Kansas City radio show, and we were talking about this yesterday, because I agree.

Sometimes in these moments, you default to what you really are, right? It's kind of like, you know, a boxer who's a certain style of boxer. He can try to fight another way that works well in the matchup, but when he gets hit a couple times, he's going to revert to who he is, right? And we see that with quarterbacks with their, hey, they've worked all offseason on their release and their footwork, but when the bullets are flying, they kind of go to, what they've always been, right? So I wondered about this.

It's really hard sometimes to know what impact people have on a team when they're not exactly the play caller. So think of Eric Bienerney. Eric Bianemy left to the chiefs and went to the Washington commanders and threw the ball too much. I mean, all the time, they led the league in sacks taken and interceptions. They threw the ball as if they had Dan Marino, all the time.

So was Eric Bienerney kind of that, that enabler of Andy instead of a little bit of a restrictor and a, hey, let's remember to stay in our lane here, right? Because Andy's going to call the game, but does it matter who's in his ear in terms of that? Or what do you think? What do you think? Could that be a possibility of why they've been able to run a little more? Because they have adapted a little bit more of a different style. Right. I also think what they've done is they found out a way that await, and I agree with you. I do think people are in his ear. I think that happens in most games. sometimes agendas get turned around a little bit, but I think in the Chief's particular perspective

is that they've got to protect those tackles. And that's the big thing that I think I've seen over them the last six weeks or so is they've evolved into, if we can protect the tackles in the passing game, it makes Mahomes have a much wider effect on the game. So I think by running the ball, they can slow down the rush a little bit. Those guys aren't flying around the corner on the edge. The running game, that's why I'm fascinated by, I think the running game, determines how these defenses rush the passer, how they pursue, how they do everything. And I agree with you. I think the running game is going to be interesting, but they're different styles running games. That's the dynamic of these matchups. Yep. The other matchup I'm really

interested in Randy is some of this was from talking to a defensive coach who had, you know, prepared for these teams. I asked him about the chief's defense and he thought a really big matchup a potential advantage for the chiefs was their interior defensive line to be able to get into Purdy's kind of pinch that pocket down, step on his toes a little bit. And the observation was that, hey, as we've seen, when Purdy is on rhythm, even when he escapes and alludes, it would be a very dangerous passer, but his strength is derived from his legs, his lower body. And when you start to get into that, it falls apart really quickly. And so we saw that a little little bit like a Cleveland was able to do that more than a Detroit, right?

Can a Kansas City do that with Chris Jones and get in there enough that it compromises him? Because we've seen the ball flutter sometimes, Randy, when it gets like that for him. The other part off of that is the Chiefs led the league this season and batted passes. They had 22. Cleveland was second with 18. I just mentioned Cleveland did a really good job getting to purdy. You throw in the playoffs. the chiefs have 27 batted passes. The next team has 19. So can they get step on his toes,

so to speak, maybe get their hands up, maybe get a turnover or two off of that? Does that seem like a good play? Well, I think it's a definite good play, and I'm sure it enters in, because just to expand on a little bit more with regard to Purdy, we all know Purdy's a good player. He's an anticipator. He really plays on instincts. But what he's not is he doesn't have a great arm and he doesn't throw off platform great. When his legs are not under him, things break down, like you said. And so when you pressure him a little bit, and he's got to throw something without his legs under him

where he can drive the ball, it's not the same velocity, and balls flutter, like you said, and that's a problem. I think where it'll be fun to see Spagnola attack is the 49ers right side of their line is the weakness, right? It's the right guard. It's the right tackle. Trent Williams, you're not going to mess with that side.

So I think the schemes and the pressure packages that we'll see are from the middle to what would be the offense is right. And that's where the weakness is. I think you'll see some games over there. You'll see some bull rushing over there. I think you'll definitely see what you just mentioned is some pressure trying to come up the gut

because Purdy's not a big dude. You know, what is he, 6-1, 6-1-5, something like that. It's not like he's Josh Allen standing there can throw over everybody. So I think you will see some package, pressure up the gut. And then to that right side where I think the chiefs are going to see

what we see in that the 49ers pass protection on that side of the ball is not the best. The last thing I wanted to ask you about on this, just previewing the matchup would be the 49ers are a little unique or a little unusual. They lead the league in the percentage of plays with two running backs. You know, that's really not the way the league has gone for the most part, except for some of these kind of Shanahan-type offenses. So it's a different, presents a different challenges and opportunities.

Typically, the league went away from two backs because defenses blitzed them out of it, and you really needed to get four verticals into pass routes to threaten the defense. The 49ers have solved for that. They can still have two backs out there and they still threaten people. Some of these guys are interchangeable and they're all about 215 pounds. And you don't know if McCaffrey's going to be in the slot or where he's going to be. So they're super dangerous on that. And they make you tackle.

What do you think about that, the Chief's ability to match up against this style of an offense and tackle? Well, I think it's an interesting cause and effect for sure because we know the chiefs like to play a lot of man-to-man. They'll play a lot of single high coverage. They'll play some two-man, but they like to get in your face. So what that tells me is the 49ers perimeter players are going to have to win some one-on-one battles. Purdy is not going to be able to throw to open spaces and I think open areas of the field where anticipation is his strength. I think the chiefs are going to play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and those take sometimes, more precise, tighter window, higher velocity throws to beat that man-for-man coverage.

So another interesting facet, I just find this matchup pretty cool to kind of sort out. I did you. We'll circle back at the end with our picks. Staying on the theme of the week and the Super Bowl, what about these 49er complaints, Randy? We got practice fields, fire alarms. I was thinking, too, how odd it is for the chiefs to be practicing at the division rival Raiders, incredible new facility. I wonder if the chiefs players

are like, hey, Clark, Hunt, can we get this in Kansas City? But that's a little weird in and of itself. But then we hear that the 49ers are out of UNLV where the sod is apparently super soft. Kyle Shanahan is not happy about it.

We read then the team hotel had a fire alarm, you know, this sort of thing happening that you would think you those things would be guarded. You know, if you were a coach going in, this cannot happen because it's the oldest trick in the book for any visiting team anywhere.

So what do you make of these two things? and shouldn't this, at least the practice field thing, be solved in advance? Well, first off, your fact, and it is awkward of the chiefs practicing at the Raiders facility, that's crazy. And that happened thus when I was in New Orleans. Obviously, we at the time were in the same division as the Rams. And they came into our facility and took it over, and that's the deal, right? They have to plan for that in case you're in the Super Bowl.

So the team in your conference gets the home field in that regard. So that was weird because I remember guys. coming in my office and putting black paper up on all my windows. I couldn't see outside. It was like they made my office a cave, but I understand it. They take all your files out of there? How did that work? They could look at your notes. They didn't go in my office. They stayed on the outside in the perimeter, but I couldn't see out either. So it was like I was in a jail cell without a window. And everybody's office was the same way that faced the field. So we couldn't see. We couldn't get out other than just walking out the front door. That was our only access in and out of the office that

week. So it was kind of crazy. The other thing is you're right about the distractions. The 49ers, we've heard a lot of narrative about things that have bothered them. I guess you can use that two ways. You can use that to your advantage in that, hey, they're trying to make it tough on. It's us against the world. Let's take it all on. I remember another story that happened thus in Seattle one year. Early in my career, we went down to play the Dolphins in a divisional playoff game. It was a round two game, I believe. We had to travel on a Friday because the game was on a Sunday. We get to the airport. I remember it was American Airlines, there was a mechanical on the plane. So they loaded us all up off the plane, on buses. We go to a local hotel by the airport, and we hung out for five hours

while a heart was flown in from L.A. to get our charter plane passing inspection so we could go to Miami. So needless to say, we get into Miami on a Saturday morning, it's like three or four in the morning, right? The game is just over 24 hours away. So we go to the hotel, we get checked in, and and we're going to go have a walk through a little bit of a practice in the Orange Bowl. It's kind of rainy, misty. We go over to the Orange Bowl. Believe me, the rain and mist did not bother us from Seattle, but we get to the Orange Bowl, and the field is covered,

and half the guys that are there on the crew don't speak in English to start with. And so they're talking about, oh, there's no way we've been instructed. We can't uncover the field. You're not going to be able to practice. So they tell us this when we're getting off the bus. So let me ask you, how do you think Chuck Knox took that information that we weren't going to practice on the Saturday before the biggest game in franchise history and had got to load us back up on the bus and go to some parking lot and have a walkthrough. That was crazy. Yeah, completely irate.

Like he was the night before with American Airlines when the charter didn't, you know, couldn't take off. So it was one thing after another. Long story short, it was a complete disaster of a trip. It was everything went wrong that could have gone wrong. But guess what? We woke up Saturday morning. We went to Orange Bowl and we kicked it off and won the playoff game. So my, my, point is the 49ers could channel all this stuff to help them. We'll see. So it could go both ways. It could be, woe as me, or it could be, hey, don't tell me how rough the water is. Let's just get in the boat. Yeah. Do you think it's a sign of maybe them feeling the pressure a little bit? A little bit. I kind of saw that in some of the interviews that I've seen, especially from Kyle.

I think, I don't know. I just feel like they are feeling some pressure. For whatever reason, I don't know. I don't know where they would get the pressure from. Obviously, they're a good team. Maybe they don't like the matchups either like we're talking about. So I don't know. There's a great story. Kailen, Kaley wrote a great story for us on The Athletic about how Kyle does what his dad used to do. He's got the coaches' offices wired with video and sound so he can watch the meetings. What do you think of that?

I just thought of uptightness. Maybe it's a great thing, but it seems kind of weird to me. I don't know if that's done at their home facility or not. But I know this. when I was in New Orleans as the GM, Jim Haslett wanted me to have wires to all the meeting rooms. So I could go from room to room and understand and watch a meeting and watch a coach work and teach. But here's the thing and where the reasoning that came from. And this may come from Shanahan too because people forget Shanahan's dad was with the 49ers.

And that was there and I believe the Bill Walsh era. And Bill Walsh is the one that did that. He's the first one to put. Yes, he put film and a camera in the rooms and he did it from not only a teaching so he could get around. all the rooms. But when you brought a new player in, there was a log of tape where he could watch a VHS tape at the time to get all the installs that he needed and not have to have a coach go through it with him. So he could actually watch on tape their offense being installed. And so that's why these videotaping sessions occurred. And we did the same thing in New Orleans. And I

thought it was great. It was a really cool access for me. And I'm not checking up on anybody. I just want to see who is teaching what and what we're trying to teach. And if there's any way I can help that process, I was always for it. Yeah, it's really interesting. Yep, good stuff, good tool. And if you're, you know, using it for the right purposes, you can really have a feel for what's going on and where you need to get better and who's great at what and all those types of things.

All right, moving along the 2004 Hall of Fame class is set. I know we're going to have to talk about Antonio Gates here because he's surprising to me. And I know to you, and a lot of people that were around the Chargers, and just a lot of people in general, pretty surprising to me that he was not among the five modern era finalists selected for enthrignment. It was his first year of eligibility. He's going to get in real soon. But I had him right after Julius Peppers, really, among the players from this group that I thought deserved to make it. How about you? Yeah, I mean, 100% for me as well.

I agree with your thoughts. I thought Gates would be an easy lock. one of the few that I didn't even have to think about, but I'm probably partial. I spent 10 years with him, so I've seen him at his best. I mean, this is a guy that I think is one of the top two or three tight ends to ever play.

So maybe the fact that he's a tight end keeps him out for a minute. I clearly agree with you. He's going to get in sooner than later. What it did, though, was it made me do a little research on the five candidates, thinking if I got to find somebody that I want to put in, who am I going to take out if we got to have five? And so I went back and forth on who might be less deserving. And again, this is not a knock on these guys.

They're all good players. Yeah, I'll tell, let me say who did make it. So Devin Hester, Andre Johnson, Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, and Patrick Willis for the five. So of those, I always say that I'm glad you said that, Randy, because when people say, so and so should have got in, I always say, well, who do you want to take out? And that's right. That's what you're going to do on here. The only guy for me that I could make a case for Gates, you know, maybe being quite a bit more

deserving of was Patrick Willis for me. And again, I remember seeing Patrick Willis at Old Miss. I had him in my office. I remember him sitting across the desk for me like it was yesterday. Great player, great guy, magnanimous personality, really good leader. And so I'm not dingin him at all. But I'm saying from a pure number standpoint, impact on the game for 10 or 12 years, Gates had that. And that would be the only swap out I would make just for the sake of this argument. But it did make me do some research before I did it, because some of the other. other guys, Andre Johnson, for example, came to my mind right away. And when you look it up, the numbers are impressive. Now, there's a lot of accolades that came his way over a long period of

time. And I know I always say this, my criteria, and I don't know that there is a specific criteria, you know way better than me, is did they dominate the game from their position for a decade, or at least very close to a decade? And I know Gates did. I didn't know Andre Johnson did, but when you study it and get the numbers right, he definitely did as well. Hey, hopefully he gets in next year and we don't disregard him just because, one, he played in San Diego and two, he was a tight end. How do you feel about Hester, you know, total game plan consideration as a returner, had 19 return touchdowns, but you're not on the field every play either, and sometimes they just kick away from you. Do you like that one?

I think it's an okay selection. Again, I think he was a fantastic return guy, maybe the best ever. So if we're in the, for the sake of completeness for this hall, I think you have to consider punters, kickers, return specialists, all that. I've told the story many times. We did know what to do with Devin Hester when he came out of Miami that year. I know Chicago stepped up and picked him. We didn't really think he was a DB. I wasn't 100% sure that he could, he was a receiver.

But I know this. When the ball was in his hands, he was a game changer. And that's really what he built his career on, whether it was a return or a reverse or something. where you could put the ball in his hands and let him go, that's when you saw what kind of a dynamic athlete in player he was. Yeah, I wonder if he would have been with like an Andy Reid or something his whole career, if he would have had a little bit more of a role on offense or development on offense. Interesting. It's really hard to scheme a player like that, Mike. And it's like it's almost like a tight end when you pick a tight in in the top five or six of a draft. For example, like Atlanta

did with pits. It sounds great on paper to say we can design this or we can design that. But in the heat of the moment in the deep depths of battle, coaches don't scheme players open. They just don't. And that just, again, that gets ignored way too often. It sounds great, but it just doesn't happen in real time. The finalists who missed the cut this year included Gates, who we discussed along with Tori Holt, Reggie Wayne, Willie Anderson, Jari Evans, Jared Allen, Eric Allen, Rodney Harrison, Darren Woodson, and Fred Taylor. I would love to get your thoughts on a few of these guys. Who from that group would you like the most or thought was the best player or do you have concerns about that those groups. Maybe we picked the right guys. Well, I think, and you know my feeling on the

Hall of Fame what it's become. And I think some of the players that are, that probably belong in their own wing have even commented as well that it's kind of a hall of very good players, not the, not the greatest of all time. So I wouldn't say there's anybody on that list that I would consider the greatest of all time. And maybe my 20 years of being the pro scouting guy in Seattle lead me to say, hey, I'm a little more critical than I should be about these players because I did watch a lot of tape. I did write reports on all these guys for years. And so I did have to prepare our roster for dealing with these guys. And I say these guys are really good players, but they all had some flies per se. And I never have thought of the Hall of Fame as accepting of players that

had some elements of their game that weren't top-notch. I just felt like across the board, they needed to be top-notch at everything and really without weakness. Probably the one guy for me that I could make a case for at the top of this list would be Torrey Holt, the receiver from the Rams. Tori Holt was one of those guys who, yeah, the system helped him. Mike Marks really helped him. But standing alone, this guy was a great route runner, a great ball skills guy who could catch anything. For a while, he was pretty good run after the catch. I think this guy is a complete receiver. I don't know that he ever dominated the game for a decade, like say a Michael Irvin did or even a Chris Carter or Randy Moss for sure. But I do think he has the skills and the production on paper that he would probably be at the top of my list.

Maybe at the other end of that spectrum is probably a guy like Fred Taylor for me who, and again, I don't want to beat up Fred Taylor. He was a really good player. Hey, my brother and one of my best friends in the business drafted him with the Jaguars. So I know all about him and I know how proud they are of him. And I'm not trying to be a bad guy for just criticizing these guys. But I just think Fred was known. Yeah. Fred was known as a big, fast, straight line guy who really never caught a bunch of passes.

I think I did the research. And I think he had eight or nine career TD receptions. Marshall Falk in 2001 had nine in that one year. So the craziness behind the numbers just don't stack up to what some of these better backs, in my opinion, have done. And I always used Marshall Falk because during that early 90s period, he dominated from not only the running back position, but as a receiver and just about every way. Yeah, no doubt about it. I like that you settled on hold. So talking about dominating for a decade, I did that evaluation a while back of measuring every receiver in history's best eight seasons.

because I figured, looking at it, no one really, unless you're Jerry Rice, no one really has elite seasons beyond about eight or nine of them. Right. And so I looked at where they rank in receiving yards in each of their eight best seasons. And Jerry Rice, Don Hudson, Randy Moss were one, two, three. Steve Largent was number five, Julio Jones, six, Marvin Harrison, James Lofton, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson. Number four was Torrey Holt.

That surprised me. but just because he didn't hang around for an extra five years and just compile and push itself up the list and get talked about. But he did it, and I believe Kurt Warner was his quarterback for less, well less than half of his perceptions. The perception is, wow, he was just dominating with Kurt Warner. No, he was playing with Mark Boulders. He was a good player and others, and he really produced. His eight, he played basically 10 years and they were almost all elite. So he really packed it in.

I'm a big supporter of his of these other guys coming up. The other thing, though, we're going to have new people coming in next year. One of them is Eli Manning, who has the best last name ever. He's got two Super Bowl wins in which he made critical plays, great longevity. He's very funny on the show with his brother on the commentary show on Monday Night Football. I never really felt like he was a top five quarterback when he played. Again, no set criteria. We can use our discretion.

I suppose if you win Super Bowls and are the quarterback and you did great in those games, that means something. But how would you feel? What would be your advice, you know, to considering someone like him? I think it's a really hard one and maybe puts the selection committee like yourself in a bind because I think if you look at it just from a pure football standpoint, I agree, probably not Hall of Fame talent, in my opinion, but in the big games, nobody played better, right? He has the two Super Bowls to show for it.

I think the comparison nowadays is the Brock Purdy one, although I think Eli has a little more physical talent than Purdy. Maybe that skill set was higher for that he reasons if you were evaluating him. But I do think Manning will get in just because of the New York factor, the fact that he played in the Big Apple, and for all the other intangible reasons that you mentioned, regard to what he's done post football, which really shouldn't be part of it. But two Super Bowls, I don't know, have all quarterbacks who won two Super Bowls? Is the history of his history? Jim Plunkett's not in.

Jim Plunkett won two. He's not in. Yeah. But that's, I mean, to make an Eli picked, you know, a number one type overall selection with Brock Purdy, I think most people would raise their eyebrows on that. So you don't think Eli was especially gifted physically. That's correct. But he had all the other intentions. Now, I'm not saying he's Brock Purdy. Now we're derailing Brock Purdy's candidacy. But I'm just saying, I never thought of Eli as John Elway. I never thought of Eli as, as Peyton per se. But the results are there. And you talk about game manager. That's a whole other podcast. And we can just talk about the definition of that. I think Eli did that as well as anybody for a longer period of time than most. So again, I think. With a run game and a defense, you know, that type of thing.

No doubt. It's a prime, I think, example of when a quarterback goes to a place that is stable around him and where he can take it even with not elite talent for sure. Yeah. All right. While we're on the topic of all time honors, this season, Randy, the Athletic published the Football 100 book. A definitive ranking wink wink of the 100 greatest players in NFL history. So two or three years ago when we were putting this together,

we really weren't sure what to do with Patrick Mahomes because he was sensational, but he only played a few years. So then what happened before the book came out, he won another Super Bowl and we're like, okay, we're going to put Patrick Mahomes into the top 100 here. And we sort of slotted him in towards the bottom of that. So we ended up of the top 100. We ended up having 19 quarterbacks,

which tells you about our orientation, but also the importance of the position. I want to ask you where you would put Mahomes in this list. And I'm going to read the 19 in order. Mahomes is at the bottom. How far would you move them up? I get the sense I would probably put him in somewhere in the top 10 of this now. So we go, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning,

Johnny Unitas, Autogram. Autogram's not in the NFL Plus All-22 package. You can't watch him. John L.A. It might be the all 1922 package, no. John Elway, Dan Marino, Aaron Rogers, Brett Farr, Sammy Ball, Drew Breeze, Sid Luckman, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Roger Stobach, your boyhood favorite as a Cowboy fan. Bart Starr, Bobby Lane, Patrick Mahomes, and Fran Tarkington, who at the time when he retired, had the all-time record for touchdown passes and was really one of the great dual threat quarterbacks early on. and how high you pushing Mahomes on that list?

I think you can see the list, right? I pasted it in there. Yes, I got it. So it makes it easier. You don't have to memorize all that. But where are you pushing him now? And especially if he wins this game, does that affect it? Right.

For me, it didn't take me long to slot him in where I thought he belonged. For me, and I'll just go right to it. For me, Brady was, I had no argument with Brady being one. The John Elway argument that he's not in the top two or three is crazy. Elway would be two for me. And I would put Mahomes at three, to be honest with you. I have not seen this kind of talent, this kind of production, this kind of anticipation and instincts and football IQ.

And like most of us, we've watched ball a long time. So I would have no problem with Mahomes being the third and the top three. I don't know that I would be reflective of changing that if they win or lose this week. I think he's going to get other opportunities. For me, that is obviously the striking thing about the list is that, and I understand the reasoning by where he was. But I thought Elway was a great player that never, for some reason, in history

has been reflected as such. I like Joe Montana. Joe Montana was the second on your list. Joe Montana, to me, is the epitome of a great system, almost a game manager himself. And I always go back to, and this is a crazy story,

and it's not, it's fantasy world, right? But we all remember the catch, right? Where Montana's rolling to his right, he throws to Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone. I always said, what happens if Dwight Clark had fell down before Montana could hurl the ball toward him? What would Montana have done? Well, he probably had to turn and just throw it out of bounds, right?

He almost tried to throw it out of bounds anyway. And I said, put Elway in that same category. And when Elway's rolling to his right, if Clark falls, you know what Elway does? He plants his feet and throws clear to the other side of the end zone to the next receiver for a touchdown. So that to me tells me not many could do that. And so I always had L.A. up there for that reason. Now, again, I was on teams that played against L.A. and he's ruined more Sundays for me than anybody in my life.

So I think he's probably greater than most do. But I think he's extremely talented and at the top of any quarterback list that doesn't have him in the top three or four, I think's crazy. Well, yeah, now, Tom Brady wouldn't be running and throwing it back across the other side of the field either, though. And so I think when we, when Tom Brady's, up there because he won seven Super Bowl. That's right.

They played for so long. So that winning opponent does elevate these guys up. But an interesting story on John Elway in relation to this was, remember Howard Mudd? Of course, he was in Seattle, great line coach. And Howard was with Peyton Manning all those years in Indy. And seven or eight years ago when I was at ESPN, I did this project on the greatest quarterbacks in the passing era, which I traced to 1978 when they changed the rules for holding and defensive backplay to really.

open up passing soon within a year or two. You had Don Correel and the Chargers, you know, lighting it up. And the game was changed. Stats changed, guys threw for tons of more touchdowns, all that. And I asked Howard Mudd, he was one of the guys on the panel for his greatest quarterbacks since then that he had seen. And I think he might have had Elway number one. He definitely had him above Peyton Manning, who he loved Peyton Manning.

But that was the regard that he held Elway in. And was Howard in Cleveland, too? He was in Cleveland, right? when yes with Coza and Marty yeah those days so he saw him going against him too and saw what you saw I just think Elway didn't have the stats under Reeves uh uh and had that and didn't get his Super Bowl crowns until late and I bet you that just hurt him in these legacy type discussions relative to a Montana even though if you go back Bill Walsh wanted the trade for Dan Marino yeah I mean Bill Walsh would have way rather have had Lleway you know than Montana and he loved a Montana

but that's just the reality. I think what it was for a lot of those people like myself, like Howard, who lined up every Sunday against Elway was the thing that separated Elway from the rest of the field, in my opinion, is that every receiver was a threat on the field no matter where they were. So if he's running right, you cannot drop coverage on the left 50 yards downfield because you know what, he can make that throw. And I've not seen anybody else ever be able to do that until Josh Allen. came along and Josh Allen that's why people kind of say oh man that's Elway that's Elway it was the same

type of thinking every receiver no matter where they're on the field is a threat and so there's no backside there's no front side to coverages there's no rolling coverages to this way or that way you can do that but you stand to get your ass beat on the backside if you're hesitant at all about covering a guy that's 40 yards from where the quarterback is so that element that he adds to the game i haven't seen except from a guy like Pat Mahomes. Pat Mahomes can do some of that. Josh Allen has the physical stature to do that. So these two guys, in my opinion, are special for that reason.

So you say, hey, let's put Brady number one, the seven Super Bowls along January. It is what it is. We're just going to put him number one. But let's put Elway. Let's put Mahomes next because, yeah, they won also. But these are elite differentiating talents who could beat you whether the receiver was open, whether or not. No matter the coverage.

It doesn't matter if your coverage is good. They are differentiators. Love that discussion. Hey, before we get to the GM Notebook in our picks, there is a little bit of news with Mike Zimmer, joining the Cowboys here soon as their defensive coordinator. He replaces Dan Quinn. So they're replacing one former head coach in Quinn with another former head coach,

but they also get someone with a different system, a different temperament. If you've ever seen the red face of Mike Zimmer, you probably understand the ferocity or sort of the intensity that he brings. It's a little bit of a different style than Dan Quinn. When Zim took over the Vikings in 2014, Minnesota was coming off a season when the defense ranked 28th in EPA per play. That went to 21, then 13, then 5, then second.

He really put together a top-flight defense over time, but this is not a five-year plan, Randy in Dallas. there's a lot on the line to win now. Do you like this? Do you think the defense can improve right away under Zim? Or is this going to be a process with some growing pains? Well, I love Zim. I've known him for 35 years.

He was Mike Price's defense coordinator at Washington State. And my brother was a GA on that staff way back when. So I've known him a long time. I love the hire, but you bring up some great points in that he's going to show a different scheme. And it's just as much for me about kind of reconstructing this roster to fit his scheme as anything else. So there's going to be some changeover, and I think a little bit of a period of adjustment. He's not going to want the same criteria for his players that Dan Quinn

wanted, for example. So they're not going to be smallish, upfield, one gap, disregarding the run a lot of times. Not that Dan Quinn disregarded to run, but I'm over-exaggerating a bit here. And I think Mike Zimmer is going to have a total different defense that's going to have to be built in his vision and his like. The fact that they hired him in Dallas brings all kinds of other elements to it from a big picture standpoint. You mentioned the fact that he's a head coach, ex-head coach. Is that something that Jerry wanted?

Is his relationship with Jerry going to bypass Mike McCarthy at any point? Knowing Mike like I do, I don't think that would ever happen, but it would be easy to draw a reference to that just because you know Jerry had a lot. a lot to do with Mike Zimmer getting the job. And that interview when he came to Dallas was probably more about intangibles than it was about scheme and other things because they kind of know that. I guess Mike McCarthy would know just as much as us, or actually a lot more, about how that scheme can be taught and if it can be used in this day and age and how we have to adjust

to give him the players to do it. So some questions, but I do like the hire for sure. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe Mike McCarthy was pushing for this hire, but one of the things I often hear from coaches is, you know, a concern when the GM or the front office is super involved in putting the end of the staff or the owner. The worst case scenario of this would be like David Tepper and Carolina

telling Frank Reich, he needs to have all these big names on the staff. And then pretty soon you've got five guys trying to tell the quarterback what to do. And it explodes and you don't know what the heck's going on. And I think we're seeing this hiring cycle of coaches. We've seen, you know, these GMs, a lot of times younger, hiring partners. They're not hiring bosses. They're hiring partners. And they're influencing the hiring process.

Randy, you've been a GM. You've helped hire coaches, I'm sure. How do you feel about that? And then what's your sense on the Zim thing? Is this, you know, like you said, it could clearly be an owner thing. And is that a problem? Well, I don't know that it's a problem. I think it has to be discussed.

And the agendas have to be examined by everybody. involved. Again, I'm one of those guys that open communication is the best way to go. So I would hope that everybody sat down in the same room and had this discussion and then had the discussion individually, you know, Jerry and Zim, McCarthy and Zim, all the way around the tree of everybody kind of being open and frank about what we're going to do here. So I do see what you're mentioning is younger GMs tend to partner up with coaches. And I don't think that that's a problem per se. I think some coaches demand more accountability and a bigger footprint to operate within a building. And sometimes that's problematic for others. And I'm not saying it's right or wrong. It's just factual.

And like we talked about with GMs and sometimes the head coach, when they get hired, the footprint is limited by a lot of people in the building. So you're boxing that person in. And if they have more personality and want to have more accountability, they don't fit within that criteria that these organizations come by. I credit Dallas for doing this because I do know Zim and I think his personality, his persistence on doing it right and his his willing to to hold people accountable, even if it's coaching hard, I think those are all things that Dallas needs. So I think those elements are factoring in in a good way as well. I'm kind of with you. I kind of like it. I want to see where it goes. And hopefully for them, there's not a big, huge adjustment period, part of

coaching is, you know, making the most of the personnel you inherit. So if he does that well and bring some accountability and to their operation there, all the more power to it. I can't wait to see if Jerry Jones has some Sunday night commentary on the defense during the season, how Zim, you know, when Zim's asked about that later that week when he's available, that will be interesting to me to watch. Well, he's been through it before. Zim was there for, I think, when Parcells was there. So he knows the, he knows the things that are not going to change. That's for sure. Yeah, absolutely, we got to talk about picks with Sando coming off of two and a week.

Sando's on a roll, man. I mean, God, no way you got to buy a new shirt. He's on the podcast with a fancy shirt in Vegas. Next thing, you know, you're going to be getting a live show down here. It's one of the casinos, a betting show or something where people are going to turn in for your picks. I see where you mention these picks in your column now every week. Holy macro. I did.

I put him in the bottom of the column. I thought it was a service to read. I mean, come on. What are we doing? It was a service to the readers. accountability. First round, I pointed out that I was five and one in the wild card round. Two and two.

Not that I remember these things, two and oh. You're keeping track of the receipts, right? So what you need to watch next season, Randy, if those notes are not in there, let's just say I'm not on a roll late in the season. That needs to be called into account. Well, I like accountability. I'm all for it. I mean, if I get this pick right, I may have sunglasses on next one.

and a gold chain around your neck, come on. It's absolutely right. So I think I know where we're going on the picks. By the way, Mueller was one and one on the picks, which I want to ask you. So Baltimore was, you know, you took the points. I can't remember if we talked about this. Do you have concerns about Baltimore long term at all, vision offensively? And now defense turning over.

Are you good? Just quick. I hadn't really thought too much about a long-term concern. I do know this, that this is as good a Baltimore team as I've seen. So now change is going to happen. We already see the defense coordinators left. We're going to see some roster changes. It's hard to recreate and keep that same opportunity that you might think you shot yourself in the foot and lost to recreate it again.

So I always think all these teams are no guarantee for long-term success just because they do it one time. I agree. Now they've got Harbaugh. So they've got a system there and they've got their quarterback coming back. So I think they're still going to be good. But that was a great opportunity for them to win it all. They missed it. Don't know if they get another one that good where you've got the home field.

All right. For our picks, what do you got, Randy? Well, and you're right. We alluded to it early in the show. I cannot go against the Chiefs, especially when you're getting points, depending on how and when you make the bet. I've seen anywhere from one and a half to two and a half. I just think Kansas City is the better of these matchups for a bunch of reasons.

I think Mahomes, last week especially in the Baltimore game, was as finally focused as I've ever seen him. And I don't know a focused Pat Mahomes can be stopped. I really don't. And if he can continue to play at that high elite level with his mind, the physical part he can do. But with his mind, and if those perimeter receivers can stay on a similar page, they're not going to be where he's at. But if they can continue to be on enough of a similar page that they have, have been the last few weeks, I think this game could get away from the 49ers. I just think Pat Mahomes is, is that much better than everybody else on the field, I'll be honest. I feel the

same way. I don't know if I've mentioned my picks at all this postseason wink-wink. But I have really felt like, hey, when Mahomes on Kansas City, I've just been picking them, they're the underdog. I'd take those points every time. I mean, if you're wrong on it, okay, it was still the right decision, right? Sure. Certainly the game could get away. They could have, you know, an injury or he could sprain his thumb on the opening drive or whatever. But I just, I don't understand it. I don't understand the line either.

I'll take it. And we'll hear from 49ers fans, if it goes the other way, be right there for you. And I'll be happy for them. I mean, I think Kyle Shannon's career, I think he's going to get one at some point. But I'm just not sure he's picked the right opponents in his Super Bowl, right? He went against Brady when he's with Atlanta, and now he went against Mahomes. Remember, Mahomes won last year, injured against an Eagles team that was a stacked roster, too. So now he's healthy. He's completely on point.

It looks very tough to beat. He's got a little bit of a run game. Their defense is good. I'm with you on that, but can't wait to see the game. You got anything else? No, that's it. I'm ready for the game, too. There's been so much analysis of this like there is every year. At some point, usually by Thursday or Friday, I've seen enough, and it's time to go play. Me too. Hopefully there's no fire alarms in any of one's hotel. Well, you're using out all. We proved you're out all night, so you're not going to hear the fire.

I'll be out all night in my shirt here if I beg the shirt. Thanks, everybody, for coming along. We'll do this again next week on the Football GM podcast. This was the Athletic Football Show's Football GM podcast.