The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Football GM: Super Bowl odds

Episode Date: May 18, 2024

In this edition of the Football GM, Mike and Randy start their discussion with Super Bowl odds. The guys take a look at some of the top predictions and break down why these teams may have the best odds at winning. From there, we share our thoughts on Netflix's upcoming documentary on Jerry Jones. Then we shift to a discussion on Tom Brady's new role in the media. And lastly, we wrap things up with a couple of news items surrounding the NFL. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show's football GM podcast. Welcome everybody to the football GM podcast. Mike Sanda here along with the GM. Randy Mueller, how you doing, Randy? Doing great, Mike. Looking forward to chatting a little ball. A lot of people think we have nothing to talk about this time of the year. I think I find it very interesting time and sometimes it's some fun things,

but I know we've got a lot of interesting things to talk about today. I'm waiting for you and your social team to put out your schedule release video. Do you got the Mueller one coming or your guys a little bit? Is he or what? Yeah, I think we got a lot of things going on right now, and the schedule has not crept to the top of it. I can appreciate and respect everybody that makes such a huge thing out of this, but I hate to ruin it for a lot of people.

We've known who we're going to play for six months, okay? I know. That part hasn't changed. And I get it. It is fun to have content to talk about, but I think the social media teams that NFL offices employ now, they go above and beyond. So they are kind of cute and kind of fun to watch. I tell you, though, I don't have, I'm not going to watch four minutes straight for every team.

Sorry, I didn't watch that many this year. I was joking about it with somebody from a team. Like, okay, you know, is this just because I'm a little older and been around a while? Like, it doesn't excite me. Now, it used to when I was doing, when I traveled every week, you know, I want to see where I'm going and all of that. That's a really cool thing. I also kind of like, one thing I do like about the schedule, really, I don't even, this isn't really necessarily even on our slate of things. What we can talk about a little bit is, is just, I like to see the first month because.

Because one of the things that really stood out to me was all of the expectations around Chicago, right? I mean, it's super exciting time with Caleb Williams. And you think of it in terms of this long runway with a big future. But you have this staff that took over or staff that's been there. And there's some pressure on Eber Flus and these guys. And they open with what looks like a cupcake. Your home against Tennessee will love us coming in. I mean, but where my mind goes is.

if the Bears lose that game or right? Or how does your first month go, right? You have all these expectations coming in. Suddenly you're playing a quote-unquote easy team or something. You lose the narrative shifts, right? And you're suddenly dealing with different things just based on how your early schedule goes. The first month is kind of what you look at, right? Well, no doubt.

From the football standpoint, that is the number one thing. And you'll look at your primetime games and off Sunday games because that impacts your travel, impacts, you know, how you prepare. But those first three or four games, like you mentioned, now your coaching staff has something to sink their teeth into from a game plan standpoint, from just specifically being able to prepare for those first three or four games. The other thing I always find interesting, at least as an outsider now, with regard to the schedule, is you mentioned Chicago, you mentioned the Jets. I think in some of our talks before the show. There are several teams that have gotten a lot of prime time early in the season. but I think the key for me is early in the season.

Later in the season, these teams, you get to see what really is thought of them at the network level. They're a little nervous about putting these teams who are just shrouded with expectations later in the season because it could go either way for them, right? Yeah. And so you don't want to have a team with a, you know, three and nine record on, you know, necessarily Thursday night late in the season. So I think you can, it's fun to see. who's out there in primetime games early, but the real reflection of do we really believe in these teams is who's scheduled to be on prime time late in the season. And I think TV networks kind of hedge their bets on that one. Yeah, no doubt. They pay attention to it. So we had a bunch of

Jets prime games earlier in the year. I think they have six of them before they're by and then none after that. They'll be an interesting team. And one of the, I think we're going to lead off the show. One of the things we kind of sketched in was just, I think Austin Mock, who works for the athletic and does a lot of the kind of modeling around betting and odds and that type of stuff had released the Super Bowl win odds for every team, which obviously varies a little bit by conference. But I thought that's kind of an interesting place to start because it lets us, look, we sort of know who's playing who when now and things are just reset a little bit. And I think that's a good discussion, just a way for us to talk about some of these teams.

And, you know, we've done this a little bit along the way this offseason. around different events like the draft, but this is kind of a nice time now. Everything's pretty much set, right, Randy? I mean, you're going to have some late free agent signings, but free agency's passed, draft has passed. We got the schedule. We're just going to, now we're just going to go into camps, right? There's not going to be a ton of real big changes or revelations.

So what we did is we kind of sketched out here the, you know, what those odds said. And I guess I can kind of read them off in order here. and then let's just go through some of these teams. But according to Austin Mock's model, these are the 16 teams in order with the highest chances of winning the Super Bowl. 49ers, 13% Chiefs 11.5. Ravens 9.1, Eagles 9.1.

Cowboys 7.4. There's a bunch of teams in the 4% range, Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay, Atlanta, the Jets, and Bengals. just below that, Houston, chargers, chargers, browns, dolphins, and then Rams, a notch to blow that, maybe a little lower than I would have expected. But we can start there. What team interests do you?

You want to start at the top? How do you want to do it? Yeah, let's just start at the top. And I don't think anybody would dispute the fact that Kansas City and San Francisco probably are the two most favored teams and talked about teams to make a trip to the Super Bowl. I think the first one that jumped out at me was Baltimore being third. I think Baltimore has undergone as much of a facelift roster-wise, coaching staff-wise, and really at all levels than any team in prior four or five years that I can remember.

This team lost free agents, it lost coaches on the defensive side, and I think is in a total makeover as far as philosophy, as far as teaching. techniques, they're going to undergo some change. So I'm not saying Baltimore isn't a good team. I'm saying they have some issues that they're going to have to control and deal with that they hadn't had to deal with in the last three or four years, just from a continuity standpoint. Well, that's one that stands out to me. So Baltimore has twice the chance as Buffalo to win the Super Bowl. Now, I get it. When you're in the AFC, you've got to go through Kansas City. So it suppresses your odds. But to me, that's a huge gap of giving Baltimore the benefit of the doubt.

It feels kind of, look, and I would never should, I would default to betting on Baltimore, right? They've got a track record of history. And they do still have their starting quarterback, who, by the way, was the MVP of the league. So they're not going to be bad. I don't think of the Ravens are going to be a bad team at all. But when you, I just got this list of these guys that signed elsewhere, Patrick Queen, Javian Clowney, Gino Stone, Kevin Zitler, John Simpson, Devin Duvernay, Ronald Darby, Gus, Edwards, Odell Beckham, Delshawn Phillips. I mean, there's three or four other guys that are, you know, not as big of names or money.

But that's a lot of guys to leave when really you've added Derek Henry, you know, a couple under two million a year free agents. You resigned a few guys, but twice the odds of Buffalo. I mean. And you haven't even mentioned the defensive staff. The defensive coaches that have exited as well. Absolutely. And they've done a great job there of finding and developing and coaches. I think I totally believe in the Ravens long-term stock, right?

But we're talking about this next season. And I think there's a lot more volatility introduced. And so Buffalo's had, I feel like Buffalo has paid a higher price for their subtractions, right, in the narrative, in these odds, in the expectation. They sort of feel like a team that's kind of deeper into their window. of contending. But I would say the Ravens, more than any team last year, blew their best chance to win the Super Bowl. I think they were historically a dominant team.

And they will not have, while Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh are there, in my opinion, a better opportunity than they had last year. When Kansas City was great, but not as great as they've always been, that wasn't an all-time great chief's team. This was a historically, Randy, remember they were winning games by margins we've never seen. I think they were behind in the fewest amount of games as anybody in the league, right? They were never coming from behind all year long. And that's not who they are now.

Right. To me, they're not the same team. So they're going to be a good team, but they're not going to have that huge point differential that just speaks to being a dominant team. So I would think that the gap between Baltimore and Buffalo, in my mind, is smaller than it is represented here by these odds. Am I wrong? No, I totally agree. I don't think the odds say, and I know this is somewhat subjective, but they say that they are twice as likely to make the Super Bowl as the bills are. I think both have gone through a transformation of personnel. I think Buffalo's a little less because they have the same philosophy, same teachers, same coaches on defense. Frankly, I don't know that I wouldn't put Buffalo

ahead of Baltimore as far as more likely to return to prominence. I just think, they have less adjustments to make. So, yeah, that's interesting. Even last year, Randy, Baltimore won two more games in Buffalo. And Buffalo was going through all kinds of stuff. We wondered if they'd fire the coach. Yeah, no doubt. And I'm not being critical of either team. I think they're both, like you said, good teams. I like where they're at. It's just we're going to use these odds to determine the likelihood of return. And if you ask me, I would put them both ahead of Dallas. And Dallas is on here at 7.4 as the fifth, fifth highest percentage to go to the Super Bowl. But that's just a function of what conference you're in, too. I mean, I think it's

just easier to get. That's why the 49ers are far in a way at 13% the highest because they're not in the AFC. They don't have to play Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, some of these teams. Let's address the 49ers, though. I do have a somewhat of a concern for them. What's your feel on them. I think we agree that they're a really good team, but, you know, do you have any concerns for them? Well, not necessarily. I think they've done a good job trying to hold their whole roster together, and that's really what you're talking about doing, is putting fingers in the leaks in the dike during the offseason. And they've done a pretty good job of that. I would say this. They drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round, a receiver out of Florida. He adds to the room where the rumors

were coming out of all offseason, whether it was Debo or Ayuk. Does that? And, does that, and that play a factor, long term, maybe, probably not as much short term. But let's face it, I think you're probably seeing the last year of that wide receiver room being constructed like it is. These guys make a lot of money now and it forces you to have to rethink you as a team builder, how are you going to build your team? I don't have any doubt that Ricky Pearsall was part of the fix going forward as a first round receiver in that it's going to make some other Domino's fall at some point. I don't know that that's going to affect them this year. But as you know, they're going to have to pay Brock Purdy at some point here too. So money does change a little bit of

how your team is built. I think maybe the 49ers have one last run with the group they have before they have to make some of these changes that these other teams are making. Totally. And then it becomes important to do well in the draft even more important. One of the things that I think has been really encouraging about the 49ers the last two seasons, but I wonder about it. sustainability is kind of their big four offensive skill players, Iyuk, McCaffrey, Debo, Kiddle have missed only nine total games to injury, six by Debo in the last two years. And I think all of these guys individually, through style of play or history or the position they play, we've worried about.

But Christian McCaffrey, the last two seasons, he's one of three starting backs in the entire league to play all 33 games from the start of the 22 season through week 17 of 2003, which is when then the 490s rested their starters from week 18. But one of three starting backs in the league to play all the games. You would have signed up for that. The 490s would have paid anything to have that happen. It did. But is that really sustainable?

I mean, this team's been right there just about winning the Super Bowl with these guys playing, I think, a higher percentage of the games and snaps than we would have put them down for. And so that's just kind of my question for them is, hey, don't take that for granted. This could be a little bit of good fortune that has helped them, and they could be due at this point for McCaffrey to miss a more extended period or one of these guys to and have it to really kind of throw them off. And I'm not even mentioning Trent Williams, who I think has been really durable too. I mean, he's been playing 14, 15, 16 games every year. When he's missed, they haven't looked the same.

He'll be 36 this season. So he's kind of running out to that that kind of speaks to what you're talking about with the window of the team. his is more age, but those other guys, Randy, they've played a ton of games, haven't missed. Can't take that for granted. No, I totally agree. In fact, last year, when they stubbed their toe a little bit in midseason, it was because, and I know we talked about it here on the podcast, the combination of Trent Williams and Debo, I think, missed a couple games together, and they weren't the same team.

But you're right, McCaffrey's the one guy where if you were rolling the dice, you'd say he's the most likely to go down. He hasn't. But I think we said, again, this at the time, I think, Trent Williams might be as vital of a cog as anybody on that offense, maybe without, with the exception of Brock Purdy. I just think everything they do stems off his skill set, his demeanor, the way he rolls into defenders. I think the message is clear that he's the messenger for what Kyle Shanahan wants to do. And you're right, at age 36, how much is longer do we have, how much tread

is left on that tire. You know, we thought offensive linemen a lot of people did, you know, could have been a need that they might have addressed in this draft a little more than they they did. I think there's an instructive, you know, situation not far down Interstate 5 for them. Just think of

when the Rams lost Andrew Whitworth, right? Their offensive line had always kind of been a lot of a strength and even they had some moving parts, but when he went out, it took him a while. There was a setback there. And they've really reinvested in their line and changed it up a little bit since then and gotten better. But I think Trent Williams cannot be the importance of him to that team. You stated it perfectly.

That's a rare statement you made for an offensive lineman. Randy, there's a total tone setter. And I mean, that's a rare. This is an all-time great. Right. I mean, you drafted Walter Jones. This is, can you think of another tackle like that dominant? He's a Hall of Fame talent, no doubt. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So be interesting to see. There's two other teams that really kind of stood up to me. Philly being that high, you know, so Philly is, it goes 49ers, Kansas City, Baltimore, Philly to win it all. Would you be glass half full or empty on Philly kind of in the short term, just sort of based in, you know,

what are you reading into last year, right? A little bit of an aberration or, because I see them as a team losing, you know, some, their starting center and I still have some questions. Maybe their staff situation will be better this year. But, you know, I don't know how much. I'm all in on them. Well, and I'm agreeing with you. I would say this.

I'm not all in mainly for one reason right now, and it's how Nick Siriano responds to all of this, because I think he kind of let them get away from what they are last year, as evidenced by the amount of change they had to make on their staff, both sides of the ball. We know that when these NFL seasons are 17, 18 weeks now, you've got to at some point be able to fix things that go haywire. Hey, we live in Seattle. We've seen Pete Carroll have to fix the defense two of the last three years, and he did it midstream while they're flying along. Well, nothing ever got fixed in Philly. So I don't question their roster. I think they have plenty of talent. I question a little bit with Jalen Hertz as a passer still, but I think he's good enough for them to succeed and get to the next level. I just question the ability or from the leadership standpoint of what Nick can he mature? Can he fix things? Can he become more of a C. CEO, if that's what he chooses. Having spent time with him at the Chargers, that's not really his makeup. He's more of a hands-on, get-in-your-face type technician guy as a receiver coach and as

a quarterback coach. Now, can we have that more mature 30,000-foot view, but yet still connect with the players and what's going on over 18 weeks? That's where my question is with the Eagles. It's really from the coaching staff more than anything else. Yeah, another thing I thought interesting here were three teams in the NFC were grouped pretty Similarly, Detroit, Green Bay, Atlanta. Do you put those teams in the same bucket? Yeah, no, not for me. I think Atlanta is the fish out of water, in my opinion.

Yeah. We all have talked about what happened during the draft. I understand that, but they've done very little to make me a believer in that they've fixed their defense, their pass rush. This was a bad defense last year, and not because their players were necessarily bad. They just couldn't get it all together to play together. And so that would still be a question for me. I don't see maybe because they're playing in the NFC South and people view that as being up for grabs that Atlanta now because of Kirk Cousins addition is jumped to the top of that.

I don't know. I don't know about that. I would frankly still put Tampa in that division ahead of Atlanta. And I don't even see Tampa in our ratings, right? No, they didn't make it to 2%. I do think that's why I think Atlanta gets the boost from that division. I did see somebody put together a, I wish I could credit them, but I don't remember who did it. But they basically took all of the odds and the head-to-head matchup odds going into the year and created a percentage likelihood of each team winning a division.

I believe it was like Atlanta was like a 53% chance of winning of that division, something like that. It was way higher than any other team. And maybe we don't quite see that in the same realm. I thought you liked their defense a little last year. I know maybe more like the coordinator they had, Ryan Nielsen, but I thought you saw some good things early in the year with them. Right. I think they have some good players. That's what I was saying. I couldn't blame their inefficiency on players per se, but something was missing where they just couldn't rush the passer to get off the field. And somehow that comes with either individual rushers or scheming

pressure packages, and neither of those evolved to where they could be an issue when it came to getting a quarterback on the ground. And then the last team in here that was interesting to me was just the Rams being so much lower. They have the 16th highest odds to win the Super Bowl at 2.2%. Is there really that big of a gap between them and the 49ers per se? I just think, or even the Lions, last year, at the end of the year, they were right there. We thought they might even beat Detroit. I get it.

And Aaron Donald's retired. That's a huge deal. Their special teams have been shaky. Their defense was overachieving to be middle of the pack, probably based on what they had. Do you think that they're that much further away than some of these header teams? I don't. I wonder if some of those numbers aren't reflective of our distrusting that Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for a whole season because they're a tweaked ankle away from that passing game grinding down to second gear, you know, from fifth gear. And at his age with the injuries that he's had, his back, this and that, maybe there's some doubt there.

But no, I actually like the changes they've made. They're trying to become more physical up front. They knew they were soft and getting pushed around the last few years. And they've tried to do something about that. Obviously, they'll have to be more scheme dependent on defense, less dependent on Aaron Donald making things happen. But no, I don't think the Rams are that far down the list, especially when you compare them to, I guess, the Atlanta team.

And really, that's the only NFC team that's up there in front of them is Atlanta. And certainly, I think if the 49ers were in Atlanta's division, Atlanta's odds would be way lower too. So, you know, it's a higher bar to get through out of that division for, for the ramps so that diminishes their chances and I think that's reflected in this but I actually feel like they've done a pretty good job of doing things to help prolong Stafford's career which is you know rededicating to the run game and they're going to do that I think McVeigh is in a good spot right now I think he's you know doing and going to be doing a good

job so that's what we got on those teams one of those teams though we can we were going to zoom in on anyway was the Detroit Lions because they've been active this offseason in resigning your own. And Randy, that's one of the things we always usually applaud teams for, right? You get your starting quarterback, your top receiver, your top offensive linemen, in their case, Jared Goff, Amorah, St. Brown, Penae Sewell, all resigned to pretty sizable contracts. Jared Goff right now owns the number two APY for quarterbacks.

St. Brown owns the number two APY for wide receivers. Penny Soule, I believe, is number one among tackles. So do we just applaud, Randy? Hey, they're doing a good job assigning their own or too much money for guys here. And now we're going to be a little bit stuck. Yeah, a couple things. And I'll use your term that you've used on occasion. They have developed a little bit of a tendency to take victory laps about themselves,

about their decisions, about their front office. decisions and really about some of the players they have. And that's the thing you have to guard against as a team builder is anointing good and making it great. That's somewhat of a pitfall. We've seen, in my opinion, Dallas do this for years now. They can't wait to pat their own players on the back and overpay them. I would say this with regard to Goff, 53 million, Amman St. Brown, 30 million, and Penae Soule, like you said, 28 million. There's only one of these three to me that's at the top of their positional chart league-wide, and that would be Penae Sewell. Yeah.

I think he is thought about around the league as one of the premier tackles in the game, and you can surely justify him being at the top. I'm not sure Jared Goff and you do the quarterback tiers. You're that guy. Is this guy going to be in the top 10 quarterbacks around the league? Maybe not. I don't think I'm on St. Brown's going to be in anybody's top 10 as a receiver. So, yeah, they're buying continuity.

they're rewarding. Maybe they think that they're rewarding players who have come up in their own locker room. Maybe there's a message to be sent there. But I would just be a little nervous about paying that kind of money. I would say especially at the receiver position, Amman St. Brown, numbers are one thing, but a difference making receiver better make, you know, I mean, to pay him 30 million, I don't know that he's that guy. So I guess I would just be a little of paying good, great money. It also comes down to options, and that's a whole other topic. Well, so let's just say this late of the soft season, we know what's going to happen at some point. Jamar Chase and Justin are going to move that bar way up, right, for the wide receivers. They may go 35 million or whatever. At that point, so as you're penciling these guys in right now, if you were Brad Holmes,

the GM of the lines, you might be going, geez, making St. Brown the number two wide receiver. but are you thinking in the back of your head he's going to be the number six wide receiver here soon and do you buy into that getting ahead of it a little bit? Getting ahead of the curve is always good. In fact, I'm going to write this next week for the athletic. These receivers, the amount of money that they're demanding now

makes me as a GM really have to take pause to make sure I know what I'm doing here and have a long range plan because when you start signing checks that pay receivers 30 million or really non-quarterbacks Yeah. That reflective of how the rest of your team is built out. So I don't know that you can always say, well, he's going to be the sixth receiver once these other guys sign. Maybe.

But is his skill set at a level that he is a difference making player. Now, I think for them, maybe they view it as he is. I'm not sure for me he is, but I can understand that that's why, as we always say, Baskin-Robbins has 31 flavors. everybody likes a little different flavor. So last year when the Giants re-signed Daniel Jones, we had a little bit of discussion, and I raised the idea that, geez, that's a lot of money. Now, he didn't go to $53 million. He wasn't number two among the quarterbacks, but it was still more than he had really earned,

in my opinion. But at the time, I remember you said, hey, what were there other options? And this was going to be their guy, and you kind of defended it that way. How do you feel similarly or differently about golf? I think quarterbacks stand alone because I don't think, they'll find a better option. And therefore, those are the easier ones in this group. Just from a positional priority standpoint, I think quarterbacks are different. You're going to have to pay the going rate if that's what you want. Really, the same can be said for tackles. Penesul, same.

Those guys are really hard to find. That's why you see them all get drafted and sometimes overdrafted in the first, early first round nowadays. But receivers to me are another story. And I don't want to blow the cover on my story for next week. But those those receivers, I think are, let me just say this, I can find options easier as receivers than at other positions, at least in my opinion as an evaluator. I think I can find guys like that. So I would just be leery of paying that kind of money. And we saw it in Kansas City when Andy Reid shipped Tyreek Hill. We've seen it other places where they just haven't, Green Bay wasn't willing to pay Devonte Adams. So they shipped him. Different teams have different philosophies about that.

position. And I just think it's one that you've got to be careful when you're right, these $30 million checks for guys that you might be able to find options on down the road. You know, one of the teams we didn't discuss in, but we can, it's a good segue, and it would be the Miami Dolphins. So they're, they were, I think, 15th on this list of super bowl odds, but right in their bunch with a bunch of teams like Hughes from the Chargers, Cleveland, 3%. And they have, you know, let's compare. them to the lions a little bit, whereas the lions have re-sign golf, St. Brown and Penaise Hsuil. This offseason, the dolphins didn't resign, you know, Wilkins, their top defensive

lineman. They've made some choices that made that a little bit tougher through their construction, but to a tongue of a low is going to be up for a lot of money. He answered the question last year. He could play a whole year. They were super productive a lot of the time when he was in there, yet, like you said, no one's going to probably have him among the top 10 quarterbacks in the league. If you were them, you're going to find a better option, Randy? I mean, it's sort of an all or nothing with these quarterbacks. He's not going to sign for $20 million here. You ready to go, $50 million for Tua?

I just think that's the price of poker. I just think that's whether we think it's fair or not. It's just your options are so limited at quarterback that I think that's the one position you almost have to grin and bear it. I think it's crazy, but I don't see any alternative to paying him what it takes to get him signed right now without taking a giant step back. So it's almost like that's the position that you're handcuffed. You almost have to pay. And when your guy comes up, he's going to go to the top of the chart.

And that chart's going to keep leapfrogging as soon as the next guy goes. Do you think Jordan Love is going to wait for two of taggle low to make his deal with the dolphins? Of course he is because he's going to jump him as well. So it's just one after another. And like I say, it's just the price of doing business. It is. So it's easy on paper, though, to say, well, these teams should just, you know, draft one of these quarterbacks and try to do it, go cheap that route.

But then you're, yeah, yeah, you're taking out. It also emphasizes to me, Mike, the idea of having one of these guys. And it reemphasizes, it doubles down. It makes you more clear than ever that you have to make, hey, when these guys are in their initial contract, the ones you do draft in these rookies first three, four years of their contract. And I think the dolphins have tried to do that the last few years, right? I mean, they've paid for Tyree Kill.

They've made some purchases to try to do it, and they just haven't been able to make much of a dent in the AFC playoffs where it's really hard to make a dent. Sometimes you can't control who is all so good or better than you at a certain time. I think they've been that team that's made a big push, probably done a lot of things to get there, and yet at the end of the day, they don't have Josh Allen or or they don't have Patrick Mahomes. And, you know, I think their windows actually less open now than it was a year ago. It brings into account the criteria for how and how valuable you judge these quarterbacks coming out.

Because the questions we have about Tua now really were there when he came out. Yeah. Smaller frame. Health was an issue. We see it with this group of quarterbacks that were drafted this year. There's six of them. You'd better find the one who, one, gives you the biggest upside and two, checks as many boxes as possible in them because chances are you're not going to find Josh Allen. You're not going to find Justin Herbert.

You're probably not going to find Pat Mahomes. But you've got to find the one that you can identify with clearly that can grow and that might be worth these 50 million. So you see, again, there's six of them got drafted. my guess is three or four of these guys won't be what they think they're going to be. It just makes you, again, double down on the fact that it's not an exact science, that's for sure. Yeah, the odds of any one of the six being even a star or, you know, it's certainly less than 1.5 of them becoming a star, right? I mean, these guys are, half of them are going to bust out probably. Yeah, this is the first step.

Evaluating them and acquiring them is the first step. Then, as we talked about last week, you've got coordinated. you've got an offensive play caller and a philosophy that is used to develop them. And then third, it's an organizational failure or structure what you put around him. So the identifying of these quarterbacks is just phase one of really, it's a marriage for 10 years. And who knows if you ever get the phase two or phase three if you don't identify them correctly. Yep. Okay. I had another quarterback on the list here. Trevor Lawrence, I just made a note that Doug Peterson, the coach there had been non-committal about who's going to handle play calling for them.

I don't really see a way that Doug Peterson can't do it this year, just where they're at. They really have to make this thing work with him this year. I felt like last year was not the step forward, right, that they were expecting with him. He's also going to be in line for a contract here at some point. How do you see that going and do you see any way that Doug Peterson doesn't call the plays? Well, I tend to agree with you. I think there's two ways it could go. One is I think Doug Peterson got this job because of his offensive act, you know, ability to call plays.

And the best way to have your hands on the development of your franchise quarterback is to be the play caller. So I'm with you in the fact that I don't think Doug can afford not to be the play caller. But if he chooses not to, I almost feel like, and this is just my opinion, I almost feel like that's kind of a cop-out to him at some point this season when things go south or at least sideways. interjecting to retake over the play calling. I don't know if that makes sense to you, Mike. Yeah, I just think I'm with you. I think he has to call plays. I think you talk about contract extensions. Doug needs to get one himself. And the only way that's going to happen is if this quarterback takes the next step. I think talent has taken him as far as it can. Now he has to develop instincts, anticipation. Some of the things we talk about every year about these quarterbacks not having

coming out, he's still not there yet. Consistency. And so Doug's, I think, in a position where he has to take control of that. Otherwise, his own fate's going to be washed out with the baby water. Yeah, absolutely. Okay. One last quarterback item today, Tom Brady in the news on a few fronts. He regrets doing the roast, okay. What did you expect, Tom, right?

Have you ever watched these roast before, you know, with some of these comedians? I have. I mean, they're savage. Oh, yeah. They're savage. You never sign up for that. if you got a family or something. I mean, come on.

That's as out of touch as you can be to really thinking, God, I thought, I regret how that affected my family. Man, it's all on the table for that thing. Yeah. The other thing along the lines of Tom Brady was, we now know he's going to be the number one analyst, Greg Olson, number two. That's a pretty good one, too.

Forget what it means for Greg Olson. I think he's done a great job. Do you have high hopes for Brady in this role? because I don't think it's just working at it or wanting to. There's sort of a natural ability to interact with people and connect with the viewer that I really don't know whether Brady has that or not. Yeah. Well, I think two things.

One regarding the roast, I felt a little disillusioned in that is Tom Brady that naive to think they weren't going to come after him? It seemed to me like he was more worried about protecting Robert Kraft than he was his own kids in the whole setup because it was savage. Like you said, they killed this poor guy. And it was like his eyes were deer in the headlights. He didn't know it was coming. He maybe thought because he was Tom Brady,

they were going to go easy on him. So that is one point. The other one is regarding Greg Olson. I think Greg Olson's awesome. In fact, if I was Amazon, I would have found a way to Artie, and I don't know how the contracts work, but if I was Amazon and don't get me started on that play-by-play team, would have gone out of their way to make sure that Greg Olson,

I think is the next comer. I think Troy Aikman's the best. I think Olson's second. And I agree with you on Brady. I'm not sure only because this. That role has to be authentic and it has to be viewed by us as being authentic. It can't be contrived. It can't be kind of faky. It can't be veiled. If you don't really know, you can't hide it. And I think that's what's happened with Amazon. And again, I have nothing against Kern Perp Street. But it's viewed by those of us who know the business as that's a struggle. That's that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, not authentic. That's not, that's, that's surfacy, nothing high level about what we get on Thursday nights from an analyst point of view. I think Greg Olson gives you all that. So I do think he's really good. Hopefully he doesn't have to take a pay cut to become the number two guy. Maybe you know more than that. No. And I get it. It's sort of like when you sign a top free agent for a lot of money, you know, he's going to get whatever uniform number he wants or something. I get it. I mean, Tom Brady is different. I mean, he comes in at a different level.

Greatest ever. Yeah. Yeah, I just, I think it'll be just really fascinating to see him. We haven't really seen Tom Brady, which is trying to think, you know, fail at something, you know, or just be average. So I think it's really good that he's taking the risk to do this now. Maybe he's naive. Maybe maybe the naivete that we saw in him wondering what happened during the roast is going to, he's going to learn, you know, that broadcasting isn't that easy as well. But I'm really interested in seeing it.

The third thing was I had seen a clip of what Tom Brady had said on the Pivot podcast. And it was just along the lines of when he watches quarterbacks. I always find this interesting, Randy. When I do quarterback tiers, I talk to 50 people in the league. And a lot of times when you talk to a quarterback coach or you talk to a offensive coordinator or a defensive coordinator or a GM or pro personnel, they come at things from a little bit of a different angle. terms of what they, uh, evaluate. I'm sure you see this having a staff, right, Randy, when you talk about players or positions, you, sometimes the way that people describe a position or a player says as much about their vantage point, right? Doesn't it? Uh, as it does about what actually

has to go into the evaluation. So Brady said what he looks for is how do these guys connect with their teammates? Because really in his experience to be an authentic leader, he had to show to his teammates that he's one of the guys, he's not above them, that he's willing to, but he's willing to work, he's willing to grind. That was the secret sauce for him. Just curious what you think of that. And when you watch a quarterback, are you watching that stuff? Or does that distract you from whether the guy can actually play? Well, I think there's some merit to what Tom's saying. I think with regard to this position, especially, the intangibles really do matter. I do think you have to be an authentic leader. I think just look at some of the examples around the league that have come back to haunt

people that are talented. Jeff George is the one guy I come to realize and, and, you know, think about over the years, no one threw a better ball than Jeff George. It was the intangible parts of his game that disconnected him with his teammates. You've seen a little bit of that with Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson is a good player and was for a long time. The intangibles ended up kind of factoring into why they disconnect with players. How they interact with their teammates, I agree with Tom. I think it's great. That's why as part of my evaluations, I always wanted to get these quarterbacks away. I wanted to get them out whether it was on the golf course or at a restaurant or someplace outside their comfort zone because I want to see how they interact with normal people, people outside their own world, outside the locker room.

And so I do think that matters. Having said that, I think the physical skills part of it are the one flaw or fatal criteria that have to be, have to get boxes checked. And so if you don't have the physical skills, and I don't think that's readily apparent to everybody that looks at tape and follows these guys. But one of the reasons when I go watch or when I evaluate college quarterbacks, I want to go watch them live, not necessarily for what they're doing on the field. I want to see him for what they're doing off the field. I want to see him when they come to the sideline. What are his actions? What is he doing?

How is he interacting with coaches? With other players. What really makes him tick after he throws an interception? What happens? Those kind of things, I think you really get to know these players. And I think that's what's Tom saying as well. So I think it all factors in for sure. Yeah.

So that was kind of interesting. Did you see the note about John Perry leaving ESPN to go to the bills? I did. I'm trying to think of the way I want to phrase this. I was jubilant because it's one less referee covering for others on TV. Oh, they're going to replace you. Well, I'm sure they are. But it really bothers me.

And I happen to know John Perry. I like him. We've had conversations in the past, and I like him. I think he's a good guy. I just struggle with that whole concept of giving them a platform on TV to even say anything about it. Like that's part of what people pay to see, whether it's on TV or at the game. So that part, I'll set aside.

I do think this, and I think John was a really good ref, I think he's going to find a whole different world than an NFL office. I think he is going to find a giant slice of humble pot. around every corner because every time somebody screws up on Sunday, one of these officials mismarks a down or mismarks the ball a half a yard off when all of us, three drunks in a bar can tell you that they're off on it and nothing happens about it. He's going to get killed in his own office. Every coach, every staff member, I mean, I could just see a steady, a stream of people outside John Perry's office saying, John, what the hell? These idiots, they can't

even mark the ball down. He's going to hear a it all, right? And maybe he's heard it all already, but he's going to hear it all, and it might not be fun after about 15 weeks of listening to Sean McDermott pound on his door and blaming him for everything. I don't know what you can. You talk about a fish out of water, you know, an official going into that environment. He's going from salt water to freshwater or fresh water to salt water. I mean, this is such a different world of how officiating is even talked about and how to find out what they really sort of think about the official. Now, look, these guys, these officials take an earful on the sideline during the game, but that's all part of just sort of...

Not like they used to, but they still do, yes. They do. What was interesting to me a couple things was, so Sean McDermott has a 10 and 23 record on replay, okay, one of the worst in the league. I always, when I see a move like this, I always think of like, okay, who would want this move to happen? Okay, so number one, I can't believe, you can't convince me that John Perry wants to leave the ESPN booth to go take a job.

Work for Sean McDermott. You can't convince me. You can't convince me he's going to make the same amount of money. You can't convince me. I mean, I travel with Monday Night Football for five years, okay? Yeah. Back when, you know, Tariko and Gruden and then on to Tessator and Witton and those guys. And the worst you could ever say is, yeah, this is a little bit of a grind of, you know, you travel every week.

but I mean it is not the stress of being with the team okay I mean it is it's a different world and you go to the production meeting and he gets his chance to say

what he's important everyone's listening and respectful and all of that and everyone's pleased and thank you's and all comportment and oh regard for the, you know, the fact that he's an esteemed official all these years. You can't tell me, these are the dream jobs that these guys aspire to. When you want to get out of officiating, you go to that type of a job.

That's the dream job. You don't be in the dream job and say, God, I wish I was working in Buffalo for McDermott. That's just, you can't say that. Now, the other side is, I don't think Sean McDermott, I mean, if you're a head coach, just depersonalize it from Sean McDermott. And if you're a head coach who has a 10 and 23 record on replay, I think most of the time you wouldn't be the one saying, oh, sign me up with an official.

It would oftentimes be an owner or somebody else would say, we got to get some help for this guy. That's just kind of an interesting. Yeah, we got to get better. This is awful. Yeah. We got to get better. So, hey, let's bring in Perry.

So that's what's interesting to me is like just to what degree either McDermott or Perry really wanted this to happen. It's just interesting to me. And then John Perry, who's used to having millions of people listen to what he says and turn on, you know, hinge on what he says, you may be nobody listening in Buffalo. I mean, John McDermott may listen and say, nah, and just do whatever he wants. Like he would, anyone telling him what to do on fourth down or anything else. There's a lot of guys in his ear on game day. He's disregarding half of it.

He's doing whatever he wants because he's the head guy. That's his job. I just don't think of John Perry, you know, who's been a white hat, been an official commanding a crew, you know, is, you know, is. accustomed at all to the rank. Like he's going from general to private. Is that the way of putting it? He's a three-star general.

Who then when you go to the booth, that's like you're at the officers club now, right? You're not really even, you're just hanging out. And now you're going, now you're enlisted. We just took a general and he's enlisted. Am I wrong?

No, you're 100% right. I think it's going to be fascinating to watch. And for all the reasons you just stated, I'm going to set the over and under at three on years he'll be there. And I'm betting on the under. I'm betting the under. So you think he can stand. So you're betting the under too then.

Well, three is a long time for anyone. I don't know who's going to be anywhere in three years in the NFL. I mean, shoot. Dermit has an amazing record. We don't even know if he's going to be there. That's my point. As soon as he's gone, John Perry will be gone. So he put a lifetime job at ESPN, like you said, on the shelf to go with the Buffalo

bills and it may last a year or two. Who knows? That's how crazy the NFL is nowadays. That's the other part of it. The dynamics you pointed out. Yeah, you're right. I don't know what ESPN wants to do. Do they have someone else in mind or, you know, they have a, they had a new broadcast

crew last year. That'll just be interesting to see how they, how they fill that. But the whole thing is just a little weird to me. So I thought that was a good chance for us to talk a little bit about something that, you know, on a different angle, just from having a little bit more familiarity with the inside and how these things work that hopefully people might figure out. Now, Randy, this is good. So can you watch all the games now?

Did you see all the scheduled packages? This is going somewhere, I promise. But do you have enough packages, cable and all this? I signed up for Peacock last night, just so I have that now as well. So I think I've got it all covered. So yes. Because you already had Netflix? Of course.

Did you already have Netflix? I think Netflix is probably valued more than me in our household. So yes, we have Netflix. Yes. There's a lot of things valuable than me. Probably you too. You may not realize it, but probably you too. Oh, hey, look, in my house, the list of things that are valued more than me, the only

thing I'm valued for is I'm tall enough to lift stuff down and put stuff up on my high shelf. That's all I can do. Get the coffee cup off the top shelf? Absolutely. I hear my wife calling for me. It's just, hey, can you get this down because I'm tall? That's the only thing I got going for me around the house. So, but I asked this because Netflix is going to have a 10-part series on Jerry Jones.

And I'm sorry. Oh, gosh. So many of, this is now an industry that the documentary is actually done by somebody who's on the credits. Like Robert Kraft does the whatever part series on the greatness of the Patriots, but then he's, like, involved in the production. He's listed as a credit. I don't love that about these sorts of things. Thanks. Yeah, the Jerry Jones one for me.

In fact, I might have tweeted this. I may or may not have tweeted this out, the fact that it was, it's all, it's all being put together to show the steps of the transformation of the cowboys. And my first response was so they've been transformed from what, when, where, how, to what? You know, there's a lot more questions there. But I'm going to struggle with this one. I don't think a franchise could be run any more opposite. than my frame of mind with how an NFL team should be run,

than what Jerry does there, and I'm saying that with all due respect. He's the owner. He can do whatever he wants. I get it. I just, I don't, none of what they do there would be what I would want to do. And I'm not the only one, okay? I've spent a little time staying at holiday ends. So I know a few other NFL folks. And I think they would all agree that everything they do there is, is probably about as opposite from a team builder's standpoint, mainly reflective of Jerry's decisions and what he thinks is important and what's not. So let's say all that.

And I agree there's things I would change. But the last three years, they're a 71% winner. Only the chiefs have a higher win rate. So they're doing something right to do that. Well, what is it that you take issue with? And we don't have, we're going to put a time on this. We can't go for a half an hour. It sounds like you have a lot of things.

wink, wink, but what would you say? I mean, we're just talking about the way Jerry, the way Jerry operates that everybody knows, or is there more of a fatal flaw than that? Oh, I just think the whole thing is flawed fatally. And I say this without having to lay down on the couch and spew to my advisor and shrink, all the way from having press conferences in the locker room at the same time, the coach is having his down the hall to the way they acquire players with really no, you know, input from coaches. I know most of this to all be true. It's just a different way of operating.

And you talk about a separate silo. I think Jerry has his own separate silo that doesn't carry over. And it really undercuts the coach. I think it undercuts really to the building of their team per se. We talked about a little bit earlier in the podcast, the victory laps that they take by overvaluing and paying their own guys, just all the above. And I have nothing personal against the Cowboys or Jerry. It's just, it's a a different, it's a salesmanship that I would choose not really to be a part of. That's all. That's a different mentality of, I want to win, and I think I have a way of maybe team building and working with the people around me that builds a consensus. And it's diametrically opposed to the way the Cowboys do it. That's all I'm saying. Yeah, unbelievable. It's unbelievable.

I've been, I've marveled all those things I agree with. They, the last three years, they lead the league in scoring by two points a game. They are the last three years, they win by 9.6 points per game on average. Only Buffalo head. It's amazing to think like they're that close, but that far away for some of the things that you're talking about. Like this team could be a Super Bowl.

They're not that far away, Randy. I mean, to be winning 70% of your games. We just started with the odds that list them in the top five teams, most likely to go to the Super Bowl. So it's just been 30 years since it's happened. That's all. So we're selling hope. There's hope out there for sure.

Yeah. No doubt about it. Okay. Let's see if we can. Do you have stuff in the GM notebook today? I didn't look. I do not. I've kind of relegated to whatever you want to talk about.

Great. Well, I had one left on me. One thing that was sort of interested me and maybe I'm just holding on to it. But I saw a story that the CX were keeping in touch with Jamal Adams, right? And that interests me because, you know, obviously his time there kind of ran its course and the verdicts come back on, you know, the trade they made to get him. And the people that were skeptical about it can certainly say they were right. I always felt in the back of my mind that this player more than almost anyone that's a front line player in the league, super dependent on how you're used. like if you can make him look really bad or really good

more than almost any defensive back in the league just by how he's played he has to play a certain way and I felt like when the CX got him they kind of used him the way you would have thought ran a line of scrimmage he was past rushing he really was good did have some injuries but when they brought him back they used him exactly how you shouldn't use him

it was the most confounding thing to me played him center field back there whatever he can't do that so I felt and I know some other people that agreed with me that if he could get healthy and go to the right type of defensive coordinator he could actually have a little bit of a bounce back year and people would be like oh wow this is surprising what's going on i thought he was washed and the answer would be no he's just he's doing the things he can do to me mike macdonald's exactly that type of coordinator

that i would want to have now he's the head coach with the seahawks to do this and so that intrigues me is ship sailed for you randy you're done with it you're all you're all you're all to have you're guys when I bring them up? Or do you think that this could happen and he could actually, they could get something out of him finally? Well, I agree with you. I agree with everything you're saying. I equate it to what I always say about tight ends when we have to scheme them to get open in a passing game. Jamal on defense is their version of the tight end that can't get open on his own. So we got to scheme him all the time. And I think you're correct in that Pete said and did this for a period of time. But like I've seen happen with tight ends, coaches, game plans.

schemes end up tiring of that. We got to have a plan for this guy. We got to have a plan for him to do this and they went away from it. But I agree with you. I think he's more of a linebacker than anything. So maybe they can view him as a Kyle Hamilton type role where what Mike McDonald did with him in Baltimore is similar. I know the intangible stuff, the off-to-field stuff that happened to Jamal over the last year, year and a half, whether it's injuries, character stuff. There's some question there that may keep him from having a market anywhere. So they may get him at the right price and maybe that's why they keep saying, we hear John or somebody out, John Snyder or somebody always saying we're keeping in contact, I think hoping that the price is right at some point.

I would like to see it. I don't know that it's a long-term investment worthy type option that I would make, but I agree with you. I think if you have a specific role in place and if he's okay with playing a third of the downs, you know, for certain schemes and game plans. And maybe there's a week that he doesn't even dress. I don't know that. But if he becomes a tool instead of the reason, might be worth talking about for sure. Yeah, that's what I'd say on the right terms, you know. So obviously that would be doing what they're doing.

Just stay polite, keep an open mind and wait for the market. A lot of times when you're a high-profile player who's made a ton of money, it's hard to suddenly. It can be hard to go back into the same locker room for way less money, too. I mean, I'm not underrating that. But it is a new regime. There's a lot of new people there. And if it were handled right, I think I'd just like to see it because I did feel like he was,

besides the bad luck with a couple of those injuries, just, you know, really needed to be used properly. And when he was, he wasn't so bad. So that's what I got. You got anything else, Randy? I do not. I'm interested to watch a little golf this weekend, see how the PGA comes out. Oh, yeah. Interesting tidbits already.

tournament there. Yeah. Especially on Friday with all the Sheffler stuff. And like we talked about pre-show, some of the memes and some of the things that came out over the Schaeffler arrest. It was crazy. So I'm anxious to watch a little golf this weekend. Yeah, me too.

I mean, I think the thing that wasn't lost was that, you know, somebody died. Yes, yes. They're not related to Scotty Sheffler. But, you know, I think that, I think his statement was appropriate in acknowledging that was really the big part of the story. but yeah, the rest of it, there's a lot of different directions to go in. And I watched the golf majors, and I like golf. I play golf, not very well, but sometimes play it.

I got out one time this year. But this tournament had actually kind of sneaked up on me a little bit. Usually when the Masters is coming up, it's on my radar. I'm ready to watch. This kind of reminded me. I was so engrossed and preparing for our show, apparently. This kind of reminded me that the PJ was happening this weekend, so I will tune it in. Also, are we going to get, is there some?

WNBA on TV? You follow. There always is. Yeah, there always is. I was at the storm opener the other night where they lost the Minnesota, but yeah, the regular season has started. Yeah, I know that. Some teams will be playing their second games this weekend.

And then the last thing for you is on other sport-wise, who do you got in winning that Denver series with Yoko Chinat, Denver? How about that? That's crazy. I'm a hockey fan, so I'll watch hockey over the NBA, but I do like the NBA. I do. I'm a Ranger fan. I think we've spoken a little bit about it. And the Rangers finally clinched their way into the Eastern Conference finals, which I don't miss a Ranger game. But I have enjoyed watching the NBA series. And the fact that a team can win by 45 one night

and having lost by 20 or 30, two nights before, it reminds me of the old Lakers Celtics games, because they used to be like that too, where it was a complete blowout. And two days later, the other team blows them out. So the Memorial Day, Matt, the Laker was a Laker fan. Yeah. I was a Bancor. And I was a Celtic fan. So, yeah. Were you really?

So I'm looking forward to that. Yeah, I was. Huh. Okay. I knew we were at odds a lot, but I was a big Laker fan. Well, you're probably a Dodger fan too, right? You know, my dad and my grandpa were both Dodger fans because they lived in L.A. Oh, my gosh.

You know, my dad went to Van Nuys High School at the same time as Don Drysdale was there. How about that? Oh, wow. There you go. A long time ago. Well, I'm not. I'm a Giants fan, so I bristle sometimes when I. Yeah.

If I ever need to freeze to death, I just go to the stick and watch some baseball playing. We'd drive over from Sacramento. It would be 105 degrees and you'd be better. We'd bring our starter jacket and freaking sweat pants for a candlestick because you'll freeze your butt off over there. Anyway. Been there. Enough of that, everybody.

We will be back next week. Right, Randy? I think so. Yeah. You bet. Can't wait. We're back next week. Yeah.

We're not that deep end of the off season. So look forward to it, everybody. Thanks for coming along. We'll talk to you next week on the football GM. podcast. This was the Athletic Football Show's Football GM podcast.