The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Half-baked takes for the 2024 NFL season, with David Helman

Episode Date: July 25, 2024

Come the end of the season, you can't hold Robert Mays and Fox Sports' David Helman to the takes they offer up on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. Don't you dare even try. After all, they're just half-baked takes.Host: Robert MaysWith: David HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...AppleSpotifyYouTubeFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow David on X: @davidhelman_ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today. Our buddy Dave Hellman from Fox Sports, he does a great job hosting the Fox on NFL podcast. We did a show last year on the eve of training camp where we trotted out some half-baked takes

that we had about how the season might go. And we decided to do that again. I thought it was a fun exercise. I thought it was a fun way to think about the, league, try on some talking points and way to conceive of some of these teams that maybe we wouldn't if the stakes were higher. So that's what we did today. We trotted out some half-bake takes and things we think we might think about how this season might go, but not stuff that you'll be able to hold against us if it actually goes wrong. So excited to dig into our chat with Dave.

Let's get to it. Joining us now, the host of the NFL on Fox podcast. And I mean, a frequent contributor to Fox television as well because he's a fancy, fancy man. It's David Hellman. Dave, how are you doing, man? I'm doing great. When people ask you to do something, just say yes. Like TV, sure, podcast, the athletic football show. Just always say yes.

I feel like it served me well. And I'm happy to be here with you again. That is typically my approach to things as well. And sometimes it gets you in trouble. But for the most part, I think it's a pretty good guiding light. It's like I said, it's gotten me here. Once again, previewing an NFL season with you. So I'm not mad about it.

we're going to do something that we did last year because I'm out of new ideas apparently. So that's what we're going to do. I enjoyed doing the show with you last year. And I actually think it's a very fun way to think about preseason storylines and how we're looking at these teams. We're going to trot out what we're calling some half-bake takes about these teams. The reason we're couching it this way is so you cannot hold us to any of this because they're not actual things that we're putting our name on. they're half-baked takes so we can't be held accountable for them no matter which way they end up going. It's my favorite thing is to just throw shit at the wall and then wash my hands of it if it ages

terribly, which actually, so you told me like a week ago you wanted to do this again. And I think I like betrayed the spirit of the show because I went back and listened to our last one just to kind of. Oh, no, you're not allowed to do that. Those don't exist. I listened to it over again. And then I was like, taking notes on stuff I want to say this year. And like halfway through that exercise, I was like, I feel like I'm betraying the spirit of the show because I shouldn't be thinking this hard about that. So I'm going to try to, I thought about it, but I'm still going to try to keep it very irreverent. So, so I can just be as irresponsible as possible. That's exactly what I want. So you're going to

start us off. Do you have anything particularly irresponsible that you want to get things going with? Irresponsible is maybe a stretch, but it feels, it feels bold. to me because I don't I don't see other people saying this. Maybe I'm wrong because in this day and age, somebody has every opinion. Everyone has said something somewhere now. Exactly, exactly. But like in terms of like the mainstream, this isn't something I've seen a lot of. And I did. So I started last year's show with a team take. So I'll start with a team take again this year. And I want to throw this out there and say, I'm worried about the Baltimore Raven. and I like this a lot.

I don't, I just don't feel like anybody else is saying this. I don't feel like anybody like for instance, and I bring this up every time and I'm sorry, but I covered the Cowboys for a long time. Like for instance, we are talking a lot about how worried we are about the Dallas Cowboys. And it's not the same level of loss, but I look at what the Ravens are not bringing back this year

from a 13 win, AFC North champion number one seat in the AFC playoffs MVP. I look at all of that and I'm like, this team doesn't look as good as last year's team. And I'm not ready to like pencil them in as the division champions. And I feel like I am alone in that opinion. Do you agree?

No, because I do think some people believe that Cincinnati is going to potentially win that division. But I don't think I've heard anyone who's truly worried about Baltimore heading into this season. There's part of me that wanted to get here with this take and there are elements of it that scared me off. So if you're trying to build this, where are you starting? I'm actually, I think the logical, the easy place to start is on defense just because you lose such a high profile, well-respected coordinator and Mike McDonald. And you have that proverbial brain drain. But that's actually,

that's not what makes me worried about the Ravens so much. At least it's on the back burner to this thing, which is I feel like a crazy person for wondering why nobody's talking about the Ravens just letting three-fifths of their offensive line walk out the door in the spring. And like, again, every team is trying to replace production, but I just feel like nobody mentions that. It's just like, oh, yeah, like it's Lamar. and they have Derek Henry and it'll be fine.

And I'm like, and again, I know I'm trying to be irreverent, but I did look this up. I mean, they lost, they're losing three different starters with like 800 snaps from last year. Kevin Zitler, John Simpson, Morgan Moses, like maybe none of these guys is, is all world or anything. It's not like any of them had, you know, are like these pro bowl guys that are irreplaceable on their own.

But all three of them, of them leaving at once. And as far as I can tell, the Ravens, so what it looks like from an outsider's perspective is Andrew Vorhees, Ben Cleveland, and I would assume Roger Rosengarten, the rookie are like the prime candidates to step into those jobs. Cool. Ben Cleveland is the closest thing to a guy that has, like,

played a lot of football. And he played, like, he played two games last year. Granted, I think he was pretty good. But you're talking, like, you're talking about a combined, 150 NFL snaps for three guys. All of this is completely reasonable. And we've talked about this in fits and starts over the summer. Our AFC lingering question series, we did this.

I think when I talked about offensive lines with Brandon Thorne, this came up. It's a reasonable concern because, again, you have three new starters. There are two counterpoints to this, in my opinion. One, Morgan Moses was banged up a little bit last year, and they were dealing with some injury slash ineffectiveness with a couple of those positions. I think there are some people who believe John Simpson wasn't quite as good as people from the outside might have believed. He's on the ground a lot.

He's not as good in past protection. Totally fair. And again, Morgan Moses was hurt a little bit. So I think it's just that the guys they lost maybe aren't as irreplaceable as it might have seemed, even though this was a really good team. And the other side of this is they do this all the time. They cycle between these guys. They deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing

these guys and figuring out solutions at those positions specifically. So they sign Josh Jones in free agency. They still have Patrick McCarie. So the hope is even with new names, you get to a place over a 17 game season where you have a workable offensive line often enough that the other areas of the roster, a quarterback who mitigates pressure, all of those things can overcome some of those issues. I don't know if I believe that, but I think that's the argument. If there's a team that you believe it for, I guess it's the Ravens.

And look, I mean, Lamar can work around some of that stuff. And honestly, after what Derek Henry did in Tennessee last year with that offensive line, maybe you could even argue you have a running back who is O-line proof. And I made sure to say that. Or less O-line dependence than a Gus Edwards would have been. Right, exactly. But even still, and I tried to stress that too, is like, I'm not trying to. to convince anybody that any of these guys are irreplaceable players.

But three of them being gone at the same time, I don't know. I think even a team that loves draft and develop and is as good at it as the Ravens are, I think you're stressing that ability. And then remember, Ronnie Stanley is a guy that you should probably count on missing three or four games also. It's good for them. Patrick McCarrie is still hanging around. but, you know, what if what if Rosengarten is is not, I mean, he's picked 62.

What if he is not quite ready for the rigors of playing right tackle in the NFL right away? Now, I mean, McCarrie was incredible last year. The amount of stuff that they had to ask him to do because of injuries to Moses and Stanley, but you could be asking him to play a larger role. You could be in a situation where you're having to shuffle the line in the middle of the season. I just, it concerns me. And again, that's without really bringing up losing Mike McDonald. And we have to see how Zach Orr steps into the defensive coordinator job.

I swear to God, one of these years it's going to matter that the Ravens don't have a true edge, right? Like, that's going to matter one year, right? Clowny played really well for them last year. So now, again, you're banking on a step forward from some of your in-house guys that there's absolutely no guarantee there. And beyond just losing Mike McDonald, Dernard Wilson is going. gone. Anthony Weaver's gone. The brain drain goes beyond just the defensive coordinator. So let's say they fall from being the best defense in the league, which they were last year, to a back half of the top 10 defense, is the offense going to be able to pick up enough of that slack

with some of those offensive line worries that you have in order for this team to still be a 10-11 win team? I think it's a reasonable question. The offense part of this, I think year one to year two of a new system where, We know a little bit about what we are. We know a little bit about our pieces. Lamar's a little bit more comfortable what we're asking him to do. That ultimately is why I couldn't get all the way there because I'm actually putting a lot of stock in how important that transition from year one to year two is going to be and how much lifting it can do for that.

This is another thing I say about the Cowboys all the time too, which is for all the concerns I have, I'll try to keep any Ravens fans from being too much. at me. I'm not trying to pitch the Ravens as like a team that's going to miss the playoffs or have a losing record. But the standard was so high. I mean, hosting all the way through the playoffs, hosting the AFC title game, plus they beat the shit out of everybody they played in the regular season. Like they mauled the Niners. They mauled the lions. They mauled the feisty Seahawks team. Like they kicked the crap out of everybody. And so that's, I mean, you know, that's the standard you

want to be held to, I guess. That's the success you want to try to replicate. And I just have a very long list of worries about whether they'll be able to measure up to that. Like, I see this as a playoff team, but maybe not a team that wins its own division, which is a pretty far fall from where they were last year. I think all of that is totally reasonable. And again, there was part of me that wanted to do it and a couple things held me back. So let's put this into context because this is going to transition into my first one or what I can make my first one. There are four teams that I'm looking at, and if you look at the over under win totals, according to about MGM, that they're over under is 10.5.

The Ravens right now, to take the over, it's at minus 140. That's how much it's juiced up and that's how confident people are that it's going to be over. The Eagles are at minus 130. The Bengals are at minus 145. So confidence about all of those teams hitting that over by the betting markets. the bills are at plus 125. This is not okay to me. Again, I think we are too low on the Buffalo Bills.

Why are people more, maybe it's division, maybe it's competition within division, whatever. But I think even if you go outside of that, the general narrative is, oh, the bills are due for a downturn. Like the bills are going to take a step back this season. I just don't know if I buy it, especially compared to teams like Cincinnati and Baltimore that people are just penciling in. The bill's offense by the end of last season, Stefan Diggs was not a huge part of what they were doing. They gave the Steve Spagnolo Chiefs all they could handle in that game. And I think the model that the chiefs have followed, I'm not saying Josh Allen is Patrick Mahomes, but I think that he's within spitting distance if we're talking about the type of quarterback and the type of

presence that he is within your offense. Making sure we've got it locked up up, front, we can pass protect, we can run the ball. We are going to trust our dynamic player at the center of all of this to lift a somewhat unproven group of skill position players. There's no Travis Kelsey in Buffalo, but I think the mindset and the plan applies to the bills in some of the same ways that it has applied to the chiefs. And I think this offense is a chance to be very, very good. So if you're looking at the defense as the question mark, fine. They have some new pieces. They have some young pieces, this group was decimated by injuries last year. Decimated. They finished 12th in defensive DVOA. Are we not at a place where Sean McDermott deserves a little bit of the

benefit of the doubt here about what type of group he can trot out on that side of the ball? So I just don't think that this stacking and this hierarchy of AFC teams where the bills, for whatever reason, are clearly below teams like the Bengals and the Ravens. I just don't think I totally understand that. It's the time of year. where the anonymous lists are all coming out, the rankings according to whoever that didn't speak on the record. And I remember last week the coaching ranking came out. And Sean McDermott wasn't even ranked low.

He was like nine, I think, nine or ten. And I felt like a crazy person because I was like, oh my God, am I, am I Sean McDermott pilled that I don't think that's good enough? Like, I know the dude was just in the headlines for talking too much about 9-11 and whatever that was last year. But like, I don't think Sean McDermott gets enough credit for how just consistently really good the bills have been.

Like, nobody in the big picture of things is talking about all the stuff that went wrong on that defense last year and how well it was playing by the end of the year, just slapped together with duct tape and WD-40. And that's not, that's not to mention, obviously, overseeing the Josh Allen era. I just, I have so much respect for the consistency that the bills have put together. And I want to, I want to argue with you, but I, I feel the same way. I think maybe I will say you, you and I are both. And, and probably if you're listening to this show too, like, we're football hipsters, right? Like we want to, we want to. Yes, we fall in that group, unfortunately, no matter

how you want to slice it. But I, and I will say, this isn't directed at anybody listening to this show, because like if you're listening to this show you're a football sick oh too but the general football public i think values a lot of this stuff based on star power and so you see the bills lose stephan digs tradavius white leaves uh micha hyden jordan poyer leave you really haven't gotten what you thought you're going to get out of von miller and so it makes sense on that level to be like yeah like who's who's stepping up for the bills like why should i feel confident about this team my answer a like i trust the defense is going to be pretty good as long as sean mcdermott's coaching it i whatever sorry i just trust it like you got enough guys you can put together on the defensive front

even if it's not anything overwhelming hopefully matt milano is back to his healthy self this year i'm really excited to see sean mcdermott working with a a utah safety in cole bishop like that just feels like a match made in heaven and then oh by the way you guys you guys Josh Allen. But I think that's at the core of this. I think that there are people out there who still don't really appreciate what he is. And I know that sounds insane. The idea that, and I feel stupid even saying this, that I'm coming to this conversation

and being like, you know, I think Josh Allen might still be a little bit underrated. But I actually do think that's true. That ESPN list that Jeremy Foward did that he has every single year, there was someone who had Josh Allen as the sixth best. quarterback in the NFL. An NFL executive. They called him one of the more overrated players in the league, too. I just don't understand that.

Like, even if we concede this, and this point is going to come up multiple times on the show, the Mahomes is just in a world all of his own, and I'm willing to give him that, and I will never make that mistake again. Josh Allen to me is definitively, right now, based on body of work coming into this season, the second best player, the second most important player, the second most valuable player in the NFL. And the fact that there's so many people who don't believe that, I think that's part of what is driving this. But I believe that so deeply in my soul at this point after watching what he did last year, that that's what is at the core of this for me.

And that's why I think that people are just too low on this team. I always thought highly of Josh Allen, like from, I don't know, from 2020 onward probably. but last year starting with the loss in Philly, which was a loss, by the way, like they didn't even win the game, but like the degree of just putting the team on his back that we saw in that game. And then for the rest of the season onward,

I think he's, he accounted for 13 or 14 touchdowns in his final six games of the season, like just dragging a battered team to the division at the end of the season. Like, whatever I thought of, Josh Allen before December of last year just it multiplied two or three times over over that stretch. And I'm with you. I feel I feel dumb saying it. I know Lamar has a second MVP trophy.

I'm after Mahomes. I'm not taking anybody above Josh Allen. And you look at it. And I think there's a tear break. I truly, I think he's firmly alone on that second line right now. I love Lamar Jackson. I think Josh Allen is alone on that second line for me right now. I can't go. that far with you. Like I think Lamar Jackson, I think, is in the same breath. And we'll see what Joe does this year post injury and everything. I would at least have. You're seeing the world through tiger stripe colored glasses. Yeah. No, for sure, for always and forever. But like I'll still, at the very least, I've got to say Lamar and Josh are like 2A and 2B. Like that is fair Joe or below Pat. But anyway, but the point is, I will say this.

I think Josh Allen is one of two or three quarterbacks in the world where you just build the whole thing around him and he'll make it work. And quietly, I like the bill's offensive line. You know, you always think about like, oh, the talent takes a step back. You've got to pay your quarterback. But Osirons, Torrance looks like he was a good draft pick. Connor McGovern play well for them last year. Like they have good pieces up front.

And then they quiet. just kind of threw shit at the skill positions. And I like the way that most of it looks. Like, no, I don't like just Keon Coleman. I don't like just Dalton Kincaid. I don't like just Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir. But like all of that shit together. Oh, and James Cook, by the way, who had like the quietest 1500 yard all purpose season ever last year. And that was with some young player struggles. you know, he felt like he dropped like three touchdowns over the course of the season. All of that stuff together with Josh Allen improvising and making it work and getting the ball to the right guy and extending plays. Yeah, I'm not down on the bills at all.

Like I think I said this on speak on FS1 last week. Like I absolutely, I'm picking the bills to win that division until somebody proves why I shouldn't. And to this point, nobody has. maybe Aaron Rogers will do his thing. Maybe this is finally the year for the dolphins, but I'm absolutely still riding with the bills until proven otherwise. I'm with you. And that's why I can't wait until we're fantastically wrong somehow.

What's your next one? Sure. We just we don't, we don't acknowledge that when we're wrong. We only acknowledge the things that age well. All right. This one, this one is kind of, I'm going to, I'll save the out of left field one. Let's, let's stick to a more. let's stick to a more big ticket item.

And I mentioned him a minute ago. This one has the most potential to age poorly because we're coming up on the decision timeline. So maybe this will look dumb in a week or a month. But, Dak Prescott, let's talk about it. Let's game this out. Here we go. All right.

One more time. Let's game this out. But here's, I don't care about how good you think he is. I don't I don't really I don't care about any of the stuff that we talk about a lot. What I want to do as a half-bake-take is what like what if Dak has basically already decided that he's done in Dallas? Like we think about these contract negotiations in terms of like two sides coming to the table and hammering out a deal and, you know, every, every good deal leaves everybody a little bit unhappy because that means there was a compromise. except DAC is in the very rare situation of having all of the leverage. It's in my opinion, it's basically completely up to him.

And what if Dak is, you know, as we're recording this, the Cowboys are getting ready to fly out here to California for training camp. What if he and his camp have already kind of decided, like, unless the Cowboys make us an offer that even we can't believe, we're going to play this thing out. We're comfortable gambling without the security because we've done it before. And we're just going to make bank and move on from this organization in March. What if that decision has kind of already been made?

What is the reason outside of a contract that makes him the highest paid player in the league with like $240 million guaranteed? Like some sort of just insane amount of money where he trumps the Joe Burrow number with inflation based on the new cap. And what else could you possibly want? Unless that deal is on the table, what possible reason is there for him to not explore free agency after the year ends? The only reason I can come up with is the value of being the face of the cowboys and the extra exposure endorsement money notoriety that comes with that. That's all I've got.

And I don't even believe that because... The biggest star in the world lives in Kansas City, Missouri. Exactly. Like, A, more and more. I mean, we're just talking about how the second best quarterback in the world lives in Buffalo. Like, I don't, I don't buy this at all. And on top of that, Dack has been doing that. He's been that guy for eight years.

A, he's already reaped plenty of benefits from it. And B, his notoriety is enough that it will carry forward. Like, if he's the quarterback in a new city next year, it might not. be as crazy as if he's the quarterback of the Cowboys, but he'll still get plenty of opportunities to sponsor companies and do commercials. I think that sleep number money is still probably coming if he's in Vegas next season. Exactly. And like, that's the only thing I can come up with. And I don't think that's a good enough reason. We've talked about this. He's already done this where, okay, what's the worst case scenario if you go into a lame duck season without a contract?

Oh, you get hurt. He broke his leg and then got everything. He's already. single thing that he wanted. Obviously, there are scenarios where it's more catastrophic than that you can have a career altering injury. We have seen that happen. But at quarterback, I think that those eventualities are few and far between enough that I would be comfortable if I were him and his people just saying, I want to get to a place where I can have three competing offers and I can drive the price up to a number that I want. Because he is in that position to potentially make it happen in a way that very, very few guys ever are. The last guy that I think was in a somewhat similar spot to this, heading into free agency,

the caliber of quarterback he was at the age that he was, is maybe Kirk Cousins in 2017. And I actually think that DAC right now is a better quarterback relative to his position than Kirk was at that point. Kirk got a fully guaranteed deal from the Vikings. And I think that DAC arguably has more leverage right now than Kirk had in that moment when he first went to Minnesota. Obviously, there are guys like Peyton and Tom Brady, but those guys were in their late 30s, 40s. There were tons of question marks about what they were going to be next. That does not exist with Dak Prescott, whatever reservations you have about where he ultimately lands among quarterbacks in the NFL.

Although it is funny that, God, this feels like ancient history, but like even Peyton Manning coming off. the neck injury like this this terrible injury we were no we were not totally sure what he would be post injury and he still had like a lebron james type of courtship you know it was like like people still wanted him that badly not knowing for sure that he would be good again and obviously he was but that was not a given when denver did everything it did to woo him at the time and yeah and so i mean i know it hurt his earning potential at least a little bit i'm sure but But it worked out okay for Kirk Cousins, even after an Achilles tear, five, six years older than deck.

And that's, I've been saying it all off season. I'm sorry if this sounds insulting, but like, do the Cowboys know the situation they're in? Like, I can't help but wonder if they don't realize it where like they're just like, and we've seen this time and time again. The Cowboys love to do contracts in training camp. They get out to Oxnard, the weather's better. everybody's in the same hotel. You can't turn a corner without running into each other.

And that's where they get stuff done. And it wouldn't surprise me if they're just like, yeah, we're going to get out there. We'll get in a hotel room with Dak and his people or maybe just Dak's people because Dak will be at practice and we'll hammer this thing out and deadlines make deals and it's all going to be okay. What happens if they slide what they think is a really great offer across the table and it doesn't move DAC's team at all. And yeah, to your point, like, what if, I mean, what if they're basically like, give us everything, all of it? Like, we want top of the market.

We want best guarantees possible. We want a no trade clause and a no tag clause. Like, we want it all. It's the Andrew Garfield rolling in in social network. It's like, I'm coming back for all of it. And that is exactly what I would do if I were Todd France right now. And there's nothing short of giving him that, which honestly, maybe they will. And that's my other thing. I've said on the record before, too, I can't help but shake a feeling that a deal gets done because I really think at the end of the day, the Cowboys are scared of the quarterback wilderness more than they're scared of paying DAC that kind of money because just you can't afford. Yeah, you can't afford irrelevance. And so maybe the Cowboys really will just say, fine,

just here's a piece of paper and you write what you want on it and we'll do it and we'll be unhappy about it but we'll do it maybe that's what happens but if if the cowboys think that this is going to be a normal negotiation i just think they're sadly mistaken and i don't think dac or todd france or any of their team are afraid to just play this thing out and have a field day in february and march and so like i said my my half-baked idea is maybe the cowboys don't even factor into this as much as we're giving it all credit for. And maybe this is sort of been decided amongst themselves already, which is just wild to think about that like the cowboys could put a really, really nice offer in front of him.

And he's like, I like my leverage a little bit more than this deal. So I'm okay. And if anybody's going to do it, he is one of the two guys in terms of how he's handled these negotiations in the past, that I would expect to potentially play it out all the way to the end. The Olympics are about to start, and there's no better place to get your women's soccer coverage than full-time with Meg Linahan on the Athletic Podcast Network. Get exclusive player interviews and behind-the-scenes stories from Meg Lin-Ahan in France, as well as post-match reaction from Tamara Griffin and Steph Yang. Don't miss a moment of the action. Tune in to the full-time

podcast after every U.S. match and catch up with our newsletter the next day to stay in the know with the most comprehensive coverage available. All right, let's keep the quarterback train rolling here. I want, because people are going to be like, well, what about what you just said about Josh Allen? Very carefully, I said based on the body of work they have put on tape to this point, I think Josh Allen is clearly the second best quarterback in the league. Moving forward, my next one is, I think that CJ Stroud has a chance to be like a

historically good NFL player. Like multiple time MVP, like one of the players of his generation. Now this is now you, you followed the prompt. This is good. This is good stuff. I went back and when I was watching NFL defenses this offseason when I was studying them, I'm in Arizona right now. And when I was rewatching the Cardinals defense, every time it became time to study one,

I found myself clicking on their game against the Texans. Like, I was just finding excuses to go back and watch CJ Stroud. and every aspect of the way that he plays the position to me aligns with just being a special player at that spot in the 2024 NFL and where the NFL is going. How quickly he gets off of stuff based on what defenses are doing. How quickly he says, that's dead, I'm going here, combined with the accuracy, the pocket movement, the arm talent, the creativity.

My half-baked take is that this is going to be a guy that we look back on in 10 years. And again, I'm never going to take it away from Holmes. I've learned my lesson. He is in a tier all by himself. But if we're looking at somebody that I think can consistently, when it's all said and done, be one of his foils, be somebody that goes toe to toe with him, steals two, maybe three MVPs over the course of his career, and ends up being one of those guys that walk.

into the Hall of Fame, I truly think that he might be one of those guys in the spirit of this exercise. Oh. I mean, how do you argue with what he showed us as a rookie? But that's, I think. It's one year. That's how you argue with it. Well, exactly.

But like, he's, he's so fun and he's so poised. But I think ultimately, and, and CJ and Jordan love both. When I think about both of them, I just, and I'm cheating a little bit, but I just kind of, when I'm thinking about quarterbacks in my head, I just sort of push them off to the side where it's like, it's like, did like need more information. Like I just can't, I can't get all the way there off of one season, even though I love them both a lot. If I had to bet, I would bet that they're going places.

But yeah, like how, how do we get, how do we get there off of one season? Here's why I feel differently about Stroud. And there's many reasons. But here to me, this is the differentiating fact. factor between what Stroud did last year and what Jordan Love did last year. My favorite thing is Jordan Love did last year. It's drifting in the pocket. It's some of the armed talent moments. It's things that aren't necessarily in structure and in rhythm that make him special. And I think that stuff is inherently more volatile and it's inherently harder to bet on

moving forward. The reason that I think Stroud is different is that this stuff is in structure. it's in the pocket. It's within what the play is asking him to do, and he's played in the league for 15 games. The fact that he's that far advanced with the mental stuff, the in-structure stuff, the within-the-pocket stuff, and as a thrower, he's just special.

If I really try to, I'm sure I could figure out the exact way to articulate it, but I watch that guy play, and almost immediately, my response is, that's different. it's just different. And that's why I'd be willing to bet on this. And that's why I think that over time,

he is going to establish himself as one of those guys. This is a purely half-big take. I didn't do any research beforehand. I didn't know you were going to bring Stroud up. But I would just guess if I pulled up C.J. Stroud's rookie highlights, the vast majority of them would just be throws from the pocket where he diagnoses things, gets to his second or maybe even his third read, and just rips a confident throw. And that's, it's not a knock on anybody else, but especially with young

quarterbacks, some of their best plays are either goofy arm angles or out of structure plays where, you know, you get outside the pocket. I mean, even 2018 Mahomes, the stuff that endeared him to people were, was the goofy shit, you know, like extending plays, no look throws. sidewinder throws. And all of C.J. Stroud's best plays are just like ripping a seam ball to a guy just in the tightest window from the pocket. But there's enough of the other stuff. It's incredible.

There's enough of the other stuff. Like the one against Cleveland in the playoffs where he's flat footed and the ball comes across his body, the one to Nico Collins down the field. The arm angle, the ways he can change the arm angles and the way that he can let the ball go from a compact, dirty space and still have enough velocity, touch, and accuracy on it because of the way he plays with his base. Those are the things that I keep coming back to where you watch it happen, and the ball just comes out of his hand in a way that's different from virtually anybody that I've ever watched to play the position. And that's why I'm willing to bet on it. And the corollary of this,

I'm just sneaking this in at the end, I think that Tank Dell has a chance to be like the next superstar receiver in the NFL. I know that everyone's talking about Nico Collins. I know that everyone's talking about Stefan Diggs. Going back and watching as much Texans offense as I have over the last two or three months, just almost accidentally, tank Delt is the one that consistently, the way he moves, the element he brings that offense, that's the spot and that's the thing that feels a little bit different in their skill position group.

And I say this as someone who thinks that Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs are very, very good. Yeah, I don't, I'm not sure he gets enough credit as like it's not the big two with Tank Dell as like a forgotten element of it. Like tank Dell I think is going to be a huge part of this thing. And I do love it's the same thing the Bengals did with Burrow. I just love when a team recognizes they're like, oh, this is the guy and let's freaking go. Because if you're going to be right. I mean, Stroud being amazing is the biggest part, but I just love how the Texans seem to be bought in on maximizing that. Like, it's such a big, think about, think about Trevor Lawrence. You know, I mean, he's already on this new deal without the Jags ever having benefited from

having him at such low cost. Meanwhile, and we'll see if they do it, obviously, we have no idea, but the Texans are considered a Super Bowl contender in year two of C.J. Stroud's five cheap years. If the Texans keep rolling on that, even if they pay him after next year, they're still in position to put a fantastic team together for at least the next three or four years before they need to retool. So I think that's a huge part of it, although I've decided, I want to argue with you about this. just be like not i love cj stroud but just in the interest of argument how do we not know that cj stroud won't like how do you know he won't just be the next guy that can't get past my homes like are and that's if that's how we want to talk about this guy that's how you're measuring every quarterback is like are you good enough to do that because so far josh allen can't do it

Lamar Jackson can't do it. We say those are two of the five best. Joe Burrow did it once and then promptly couldn't stop Mahomes from getting to another Super Bowl. And it's, I mean, it's crazy. The guy's only like 28 years old, but like that's the standard you have to measure any young quarterback against. Okay. So, but what about Peyton Manning's career? Peyton Manning got past Tom Brady how many times in the 20 years that Tom Brady was around.

We still talk about Peyton Manning with real reference. like one of the true legends in the history of the sport, despite existing in the exact same era that Tom Brady existed. I think that you can have multiple of these guys. And that's what I'm saying. I'm not saying he's going to go blow for blow with Mahomes in the playoffs or trade-off MVPs or have the same sort of career. I'm talking about stealing a couple MVPs along the way

and then sneaking by for maybe one, maybe two. And that's enough. If you play at a ridiculously high level from production standpoint, and that's the hardware you're walking. walking away with. That's rarefied air. And I do think that he has a chance based on what we saw last year and the irresponsibility that we're sprinkling into this exercise for him to potentially get there. It is so sick how Brady and now Mahomes, like, it just skews. It skews so many things. I mean, Peyton Manning's career is an unmitigated success. But, yeah, when you measure it up

against something like what Tom Brady did. And yeah, like if CJ Stroud retires with one championship, he would be one of Houston's all-time greatest athletes, but compare him to a guy who has yet to miss the AFC championship game in his career. And it, yeah, it can skew the way you think about it. But you're right. And I mean, what? How is, has CJ Stroud even turned like 24 yet?

C.J. Stroud is 22 years old. 22 turns 23 during this season. yeah, I mean, of the, of the guys 24 and younger, however many of them there are, who do you feel better about than CJ? I mean, maybe. But that's, that's the crazy thing, man. I keep thinking about like, CJ wasn't an afterthought because he was the number two overall pick, but like CJ, for instance, because I was about to bring up Caleb.

And like, CJ was not getting the airtime and the hype that Caleb is. And now a year later, we're talking about him as a future all pro MVP, Super Bowl champion. And it's just, it's crazy the difference 10 months can make. And who knows how we'll feel about this once we've had Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels and whoever else thrown into the mix as well. I liked CJ's drought coming out. He was my favorite quarterback in that draft. If you go back and listen to our pre-draft show about that position, I said something like, what if he's Joe Burrow 25% of the time?

Like that's what I was talking about with C.J. Stroud. He's in a completely different stratosphere than that already after one season. And I said two or three. I said two MVPs. It'll probably have to be more than that for him to hit what I'm talking about. Probably talking like three or four over the course of the years. But Lamar already has two. People get bored.

It's very hard to win the MVP every single year. Like ask Michael Jordan, ask Tom Brady. ask anybody who's had to endure people getting their eyes glazing over because you've been doing it at such a consistent clip for so long. You can do it. Payton Manning again is a testament to it. So I have wanted to walk this back and I've wanted to pump the brakes with him. And with the Texans, I still have some concerns that we can, you know, we'll get to eventually. But with him specifically, it's full steam ahead for me.

Like I said, you never know what's going to happen. but of guys that you feel comfortable betting on. Yeah. I mean, we have no, I don't see any tangible evidence other than what if shit happens. You know, like,

I mean, yeah, injuries or whatever, knock on wood, but like I don't have a good tangible reason not to feel like C.J. Stroud's going to be a superstar. I mean,

he already kind of is, but I just think he's going to build on that for sure. What's your next one? All right. This is, let me, let me get weird with it. And I've been, I've been thinking about this since the schedule came out because that's when we

learned things like this. And actually, it was two teams that it made my radar go off where I was like, what the hell is going on? The Pittsburgh Steelers and your Chicago Bears don't play any of their division games until the second half of the season. And, and I mean, I'm not all knowing, but again, I've been doing this for quite a while. And I just, if it's ever happened before, it hasn't happened often. And I, so I saw that way back in April or May. And I was like, holy shit, these teams are going to have to play their entire division schedule, like, after Halloween. That feels unusual to me.

So then I went and looked it up. I was just curious. I'm like, what, what, who else is doing this? What else is going on? So I looked at it. more than half the league, 17 teams to be exact, are playing two or fewer division games in the first half of the season. Five different teams are playing one or less.

So Chicago, Dallas, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee are playing either one or zero division games in the first half of the season. So then I go and I look the whole thing up, sure enough. and obviously week 18 kind of skews things because the NFL puts every you know every game is a division game which I love but even without that Robert in the last six weeks of the season there are 34 division games as a as opposed to there are 38 in the first nine weeks so we're playing basically half the division games in the final month of the season and here's the thing that makes it half baked is I have no idea how normal this is maybe the I don't think it's normal together this feels it doesn't feel normal to me the bears the packers played in week one last year right I and I did I went and looked I went and looked it up last year uh 2023 there were 14 division games in the first two weeks of the season this year

there's only like five or six division games in the first two weeks of the season so What do you think? So first of all, what is your half big take about this? And second of all, how do you feel about this? My half big take is that December and January are going to be a fucking demolition. Like I just think, like we know division games are tougher. We know there are a couple of divisions that are very, you know, even. Obviously, the NFC North stands out that the AFC North, Robert, in case you were wondering because of my Steelers stat, the AFC North plays.

nine of its 12 games after Halloween and half of them. So six of 12 AFC North games are happening after Thanksgiving. So I think the NFL was like, you know, these competitive divisions that anybody could win? Let's put that shit to the test and see what it's going to look like when these teams are just playing each other every two or three weeks. So my half big take is that I think we're going to see some wacky shit because a lot of teams aren't going to get into the meat of their division

schedule until the weather's bad, their roster is beat up, et cetera, et cetera. And I guess if you're asking me how I feel about it, I think it's going to be really fun. Like, I think we could see just some crazy stuff. I think we're going to see some leads get lost. I think we're going to see some teams come out of nowhere. I mean, for instance, let Baltimore and Cincinnati. Like, if these teams aren't playing their division games until late November, early

December, you know, what if one of those teams really pulls their shit together at that time of year and just rips off four division wins in the last six weeks of the season? And all of a sudden, a team that was 500 is now gunning for a top seat in the playoffs. Like, I think it could be very, very fun. Let's put some tinfall hats on here because I think this is totally plausible. I have no inside information about this. How predictable would it be if the league was using this as a test to figure out, this the best way to make sure we're getting meaningful football down the back half of the year? And do we now do this just as a standard? The division you play in the other conference and the two divisions that you play as part of your schedule, we're cramming that in to the first half of the

year, and then we're putting most of your division games and then your seating games. So if you won your division, you played the winner of the other divisions. So obviously those are important for seating. we're going to cram every important game into the back half of the year because that's when we care about juicing up TV ratings and we don't want meaningless games being played at that point in the season. I have no problem believing that at all. I mean, we already kind of have it like that. I don't remember what year it became a staple for the season finale to be a division game, but it's at least been a thing for 15 or so years at minimum. Yeah, I don't remember a world where that wasn't the case. And so, but look, I mean, look how much compelling TV it creates.

Like you've got division titles up for grabs. You've got playoffs, wild cards up for grabs. Like that is already an easy way to fix it for maximum drama. And yeah, if you want to backload this thing, I think, yes, I think that's very plausible that they're like, we want, you know, we want the most compelling matchups possible for late in the season. and this feels like the easiest way to ensure that that happens. I'm going to do another kind of league-wide-ish one here. I think there's a chance we could be looking at a bloodbath with the NFC head coaches after the season is over.

I had six that I think you could make a solid argument right now don't have the strongest job security. And you could hem and haul about a couple of these. Dallas and the Giants immediately, right? 75% of the NFC East. Dallas Giants Eagles, I don't think it would be hard for anyone to imagine all three of those head coaches

getting fired after the season, right? Agreed. Three other teams. Saints feels like we're like halfway to that happening already based on the state of that franchise right now. I know the Bucks won the division last year, but I don't think that Todd Bowles' body of work leaves him immune to surviving a bad season in Tampa if it goes that way.

And I know that they were surprising last year. They punched above their weight. This is a team, if you look at the advanced metrics, were a below average offense last year. And I still have some real questions about areas of their personnel on defense, specifically on the back end. If the Bucks were a 6 and 11 team this year, would you be shocked? Shocked, no. Yeah. I mean, they see. like, even if you like them, they seem like a prime candidate for the classic good team regresses by a few wins, which when you're nine and eight, regressing by a few wins could mean six and 11, seven and ten.

And then the other one I had was the Bears. The Chicago Bears, you go out and you get Caleb Williams, you trade for Keenan Allen. If you're Ryan Poles, you've, even if you could pull Coles in this because I do think that there are areas of concern on the defense, especially on the defensive line. If you're Ryan Poles, I think you could very reasonably go to ownership if this season goes south and say, listen, I had the groceries. I did everything I needed to do to put this team in a position to be successful and this group couldn't get it done. There are people who wanted Matt Eberflus to be fired after this season. So if this team wins six, seven games and they fall short of what have become pretty sizable expectations, it's not hard to imagine at all that they move on from that coaching staff.

that's six teams and that's before we even get into a Pete Carroll sort of situation, something surprising happening. There's a real chance that we see an inordinate amount of coaches that are no longer with their team after this season in the NFC. Okay, I have two things. Let's start with the Bears because I'm curious about this. And I've gotten asked this question a bunch of times. everybody wants to know what a realistic expectation is for Chicago.

And I firmly say, like, I have high expectations for Caleb as a player. Obviously, it would not be very hard for him to be the best rookie quarterback in Bears history. But I don't, I just, I don't care. I don't care that he's been tabbed as the chosen one for two or three years at this point. I don't think it's fair to put playoff aspirations on Caleb or on a Bears team that has been through so much. disarray in the last three or four years. So having said that, having said that I don't really expect the Bears to be a playoff team, I don't think it's fair to put that on Caleb Williams as a rookie.

What would be bad enough to get Matt Eberfluse fired in your opinion? The offense asked look disjointed, the person that they chose to be the offensive coordinator thereafter moving on from the last guy. And we've seen this. When you fire a coordinator and you don't get it right, there is a very good. good chance that you could probably be on the way out. So if Shane Waldron's offense, if they're like 22nd or 23rd on offense or maybe even a little bit worse than that, and it just never comes together, that's step one.

And the entire reason that Maddie Everfuss's back as the head coach of the Bears is what they did on defense over the back half of last season. And if they backslide on that side of the ball, which I think is possible because of the issues and because of the lack of aggressiveness and adding to the pass rush, I absolutely think it is possible for them to take a significant step back on defense where they were at the end of last year. If this is an average defense or slightly below average defense and the offense does not come together quickly, I think that is a recipe for people getting really uneasy, really fast. Yeah, you're right. And yeah, the quickest way to piss everybody off is if

an offense with this much star power isn't good. It doesn't have to be top five in the league, but it at least, it damn well better be fun to watch, Robert, because I've been hoping Chicago's offense would be fun. I've been wanting this since they drafted fields, and now it really feels possible. And if it look,

if it's boring, if it's ugly, a lot of people are going to be disillusioned. Like, forget, forget the record. I just want it. Going back to C.J. Stroud. I want to be able to flip over to what the bears are doing in any given week and have a good time,

regardless of what their record is. Because that's one of the most, one of my last. Has that ever happened? Well, that's what happens when you draft a, you know, rare quarterback into an even rarer situation. Like these expectations are not comfortable. And again, I'm not even asking the bears to win a ton of games, but come on. Like what, what's stopping us from being fun? It at least needs to be fun.

That's where I land on this. I want to look forward to every single Sunday. I want to get up in the morning and be in a good mood about the fact that I have to watch the football team that plays in Chicago. And I do think it can happen. I'm giving the worst case scenario here for how this season can go. I think there are much better potential timelines here based on what they did on defense in the second half of last season, the talent that they have in the back seven, what things looked like with Montez Sweat, and just the people. pure amount of skill position talent and the upside of quarterback. Like I do think this can all come together, but I think that we've gotten a little bit

ahead of ourselves. The fact that they're over under right now is nine and a half at bet MGM. That that's really, really crazy for a team with a rookie quarterback. It was picking in the top 10 last year. Nine and a half. Again, and I don't mean to sound dismissive, but like it's easy to get or pretentious, but it's easy to get caught up in the hype when you can just lift off that many, you know, great players. And the bears do have name power. You know, when you go down the roster

of like, oh, yeah, he's going to be throwing to DJ Moore and Keenan Allen and DeAndre Swift is there and Col commits a serviceable tight end. Like that's, that's how the hype train gets away from you. Nine, nine and a half is crazy to me. But like I said, you got Caleb, you got all that talent around him, that's what happens. Beller, you tell me if I'm wrong about this. You look this up and see if I'm missing something here. It opened at eight and a half at BetMGM, but I'm literally looking at Vegas Insider, and I'm looking at the BetMGM column right now, and it says nine and a half over under for

the Chicago Bears. I'll think of look, but if it says it there, I'm sure you're right. Okay. I, again, I'm not. I'm not as deep into this as some of the other degenerates out there, but based on a very quick peruse on the internet, that's where we have landed, according to Vegas Insider. So whatever the number is, I think that the hype train has gotten a little bit off the rails.

All right. What's your next one? All right. Do you have another 2024 specific one? Because my net, like, this is my last big one and it's another, it's kind of out of left field. So if you want to talk some more specifically 2024 football, I will defer to you before I. All right.

I got two more of those. I have two more of those. We can run through these fairly quickly. Okay. I think the Titans are my sneaky wildcar team. Okay. I don't love what they did from a roster building standpoint. I really don't.

I think that the runway for how they added talent to the team, the age of players that they added, doing all a bit through free agency, I don't know how all of that looks in 2025, but we've seen this in the past, where teams spend a shitload in free agency, and they're much better than we anticipated for a one-year spike, and then things come back to Earth.

I remember the 2017 Jags. I remember the 2018 Bears. I was there for both of those. I think there's a chance that the Titans can be one of those teams. And they're over under six and a half. People anticipate the Titans being bad at football this year. I do think with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and for me, when you add receivers like that in free agency

and you bring in an offensive coordinator like Brian Calhauer, or play caller like Brian Calhahan, who's done really good work with skill position talent, who prioritizes skill position talent when you're building the roster, but also how you're shaping your offense, my biggest issue with them, with both talent and priorities,

would have been the offensive line. But the Bill Callahan of it all combined with all of these other factors and what they did building that offense around Jake Browning last year and how I think some of those ideas could potentially set Will Levis up for success, I think that there is a path forward for that offense to be above average right away. They have enough talent on defense combined with a guy in Denard Wilson that I'm pretty high on. I think that him coming from Baltimore and what he can do there is the defensive coordinator.

Again, I don't know if this is 10 wins. on a path to being a contender in 2025 and beyond. But I think a 10-win wildcard season is on the table for the 2024 Titans specifically. I don't have the guts to ride with you there, mainly because the AFC is so loaded. And I think there are things worth being concerned about, you know, the, I won't be surprised if, and it looks really good on our lads.com right now, like looking at the depth chart, it looks really good. But for instance,

is it going to shock anybody if you're in October? Like, yeah, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd, like that would have been a lot better in 2021 than it is in 2024.

And there's a chance that one or two of those guys is hurt as they start playing into their 30s. Like this to me is a small needle to thread, but I do think that there is a chance that all comes together and they're more competitive quickly than people anticipate.

But again, for a short time. I'm not bullish on them long term necessarily based on the moves that I've made. But for a blip here, I think it can all come together in a pretty potent way. What I will say is this. And I think, honestly, my half-bake take is I think a lot of general managers

are afraid to do this because as much as you want to win and compete and earn the respect of your peers and fans and media, I think a lot of general managers want to have a fallback reason as to why they're not good. Like, well, of course we're not good. We still have this young quarterback and we have the offensive lines of mass and blah, blah, blah. I respect the hell out of Rand Carthon for, I just feel like the Titans plan this offseason was we're going to know if Will Levis is a guy by the end of this year come hell or high water.

We are not messing around. Like we're going to, we're hiring Bill Callahan. we're drafting offensive line with a big pick. We're signing a big time center. We're signing a pro bowl running back. We got, you know, all these receivers are close to qualifying for early bird specials, but they're good players. Like there shouldn't be an excuse.

If we don't know, if we don't know what Will Levis is by the end of this season, then that probably means we know. You know what I mean? Yeah. And I respect Ran Carthon for that for just saying, hey, we, we were a bad team. We have the cap space to, push our chips in, not push our chips in to contend, but push our chips in to build a competent football team and find out if this quarterback is somebody worth building around. Otherwise,

we're going to get the hell out. And maybe the Titans won't make the playoffs, but I do think they will have accomplished that goal, which I think is really all you can ask for. And shoot, maybe maybe on the way to finding that out, they'll get, get to a wild card game. I think they have a chance to be a surprisingly competent team. And we know that it doesn't take that many lucky bounces to go from surprisingly competent to nine or ten win wildcard team. That is possible. And I think they could be one of the teams that do it this year.

Okay, this, this reminded me of a take that I didn't put on my rundown, but I did want to throw out here for you. As long as this is sort of what we're talking about, I don't buy any enthusiasm about the LA Chargers other than that it's cool to have Jim Harbaugh back in the league? This is solely a bet on Jim Harbaugh. Every single person that's like, yeah, the Chargers are my sneaky wildcard team, or I think the charges are actually going to be a lot better than they were last year. The only conceivable reason that you would be able to say that is that you think that Jim Harbaugh is a special football coach and you think that he can tap into something in Justin Herbert that allows Justin Herbert to play like one of the three or four most valuable players in the league. which is possible, but that's solely where you are putting your chips. He probably deserves that level of respect, but that's a lot of respect, man.

Sure. Well, to be clear, like I feel good about it in the long run because I like Jim Harbaugh and I like Justin Herbert. But this year, I just, you talk about like teams that are fun to check in on on Red Zone and stuff. I feel like I'm going to check in on Justin Herbert trying not to cry like every other week. and I feel bad about it. You don't believe in Ladd-McConkey? I actually love Ladd-McConkey. He's a fun, fun player.

I also like Ladd-McConkey a lot. It's not enough. It's not enough. And I think I'm going to spend the fall feeling bad for Justin Herbert and then reminding myself how much money he makes to make myself feel better about it. I saw a graphic today on the internet. We've jumped the sharks so far with this stuff.

I can't even start with it. It was one of those aggregator sites and the graphic was Quentin Johnston demoted to fourth string in all bold. That's where we are right now. The convergence of all of these types of accounts and the start of training camp in 2024 specifically, it is going to be an awful week as we get started here. Like a truly insufferable week. I think I'm going to have to take a break from the internet like three or four different times. I'm starting to feel like what I've always hated. I was a beat writer for so long. And I used to fight with people. I used to fight with people.

are like you've got to let us report this stuff you've got to let us film video people need to know these things and the older i get the more i'm just like close training camp like we don't well we're good like when when we're ready like we can see the preseason games and that's it other like it just creates such a headache that that's very tongue and cheek for the record i love like training camp is a lot of fun but the noise and the overreaction and the news cycles that get just think about what o t a's like this year just think back to what OTAs was like two months ago and imagine what this is going to be here over the next month. I digress. Just head on a swivel. Choose your sources carefully. I have one more 2024 specific one. We don't have to belabor this.

I think around the midseason point, you're going to be sitting there on the desk at Speak on FS1. And there's going to be a cry on below you that says, is Jared Goff the MVP of the NFL? I like it. I mean, okay. Okay, like, yeah, let's go. I mean, sell me on it. It's easy to imagine. I mean, the lions are loaded. Bringing Bad Johnson back is going to, I think it's one of the most important things that

happened in the NFL this year. The continuity that this team has on offense, bringing back one of a guy who has established himself as a top five play caller in this league. Like, I have no issue saying that whatsoever. I think he is at that level combined with the continuity they have with their personnel. I mean, you're slotting James in in the Josh Reynolds role, which, and I've said this a ton that I think that that skill set within the offense and maybe not having it is something that we probably should be talking more about, but I don't think it's a deal breaker by any stretch.

And they lose Jonah Jackson, who has been in and out of the lineup over the last couple of years. They replaced him with Kevin Zitler. This team has a ton of talent. They were rolling by the end of last season. And in a situation where 99 times out of 100, you lose that play caller to a head coaching job. Instead, they get him back. Their first seven games, including a week five by, Rams, Bucks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Cowboys, Vikings Titans. They come out of that potentially six and one or seven and oh. Like, that's not hard to imagine them being the team of the first

half of the season and us sitting there being like, I don't know, man, I think you have to give Jared Gough the MVP. I think that is potentially on the horizon. I think someday soon we can move past the whole, the lions of it all. Like, oh my God, isn't this a crazy story? From, from rags to riches. But it is still crazy to wrap your head around the fact that, like, we always say this too. We're like, progress is not a linear chart. You know, you're going to have.

For them, it is though. That's what I was about to say. Yes. From 313 and 1 to 9 and 8, no playoffs to 12 and 5 probably should have been in the Super Bowl. It's crazy to think that like the only way the Detroit Lions can improve on where they've been is to be in the Super Bowl this year. And if they pull it off and I, you know, I would say off the top of my head, I think the Lions are one of the four best teams in the NFL. So if they pull that off, if they are back in the NFC title game, if they're making a run at the Super Bowl, of course Jared Gough will be in the MVP conversation. My only my only pushback on that, and I'm not, I swear, I'm not talking shit about Jared Gough.

I think you could say the exact same thing about Dak Prescott is that like I could easily imagine Jared Gough building his MVP hype over six or seven weeks. I'm looking at the schedule right now. So, you know, yeah, Jared Goff is building all of this amazing hype. And then they go into Houston. And then they play the Packers the following week. But that was what I was thinking. Or they play the Packers the week before, right? No, the Packers are the week after the Texans.

No, no, no, I'm sorry. You're right. The week before. Packers and then Texans. So the reason I know that is because I was originally going to frame this as in the lead up to Sunday night football against the Texans, are we going to be having this is Jared Goff the MVP of the NFL thing? That runs counter to some points I plan on making about the Green Bay Packers defense over the next month. So I can't hold both of those things together at the same time.

It's the only reason I didn't frame it that way. Jared Goff, and like I said, like I'll throw DAC in there. I think you could say this about Kirk cousins whenever Kirk has had really good seasons, is that like the meme about like 1 p.m. Kirk versus 7 p.m. Kirk, you know, Jared Goff falls into a category where, like, you know, he could build his MVP hype over five or six weeks and then get sacked four times and they just get destroyed in a primetime game. And it just undoes all of that goodwill. It happens to DAC all the time. He got crushed by the Niners last year.

He's rebuilding his MVP case. And then they go and just lay an egg in Buffalo in some bad weather. Like, it is, it's unfortunate, but narrative is just as important as stats. This is such a good point. Because Jared Gough last year threw for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. David Montgomery had 13 rushing touchdowns. Let's take five rushing touchdowns away from the Lions and give them to Jared Gough. A 4,500 yard 35 touchdown season is absolutely in play for Jared Gough in the range of outcomes.

It's not even an outlandish outcome. The problem is that game, that stinker game, and how much that matters in this discussion, Jared Goff is prone to those, and that's what worries me about this. Yeah, I mean, how much better would Jared Goff's MVP case have been last year if they don't get spanked by the Ravens? Or that game against the Bears. That shitty game you get played against the Bears. So you not only have to, you have to win and you have to have to have impressive stats and you can't screw up when the league, the entire league is watching, which you just, you can't have a moment like that. Or if you do, it's got to be buried on a day where a bunch of other shit happens and nobody really notices.

Yeah, I love this. This is a very good point. And I probably should have taken that into account, but I think it's important to remember. All right. What was your last one? What was your last out of left field one that was not tied to the 20? 24 season. Okay. I'm glad it works well that we're talking about MVP though, because my last take is I am ready to completely revamp NFL awards and the postseason,

like the awards we get out, NFL honors, whatever you want to call it. We, we need, we need better. And that the NFL is always, it's always bigger, always better. Everything's an event. we turned the draft into a million person live party. It travels. There's no off season. I mean, the NFL has basically mastered it to where there's only like 10 days on the calendar that it doesn't completely dominate. And then, Robert, I went and counted it. You realize, like, we give out as a league community, two, three, four, five, six, seven.

We give out eight awards. And then on top of that, we can pencil names. in for a few of these. Like we know NFL MVP barring something nuts is going to be a quarterback. And we know at this point, this is what got me thinking about this is, again, I'm a football hipster. I'm trying to think of a defensive player of the year candidate that is like outside the box, aka not Miles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Max Crosby or Micah Parsons. Or we'll throw in Nick Bosa too. But I could like I could sit here. If I gave you those names or the field right now, what would you take? Probably those names. Exactly. And it's not right.

It's not, it's not a disrespect to any of those guys, but we, we just don't, we don't, we don't honor enough of what happens in a given season. That's fine. Give NFL MVP to a quarterback and give defensive player of the year to the best edge rusher because that's what it's become. But why can't we do more than that? Like, why is, why do we spend all this time arguing about, oh, well, he's really the defensive player of the year and nobody's talking about it when instead and robert you know i am a college football junkie i went and counted it there's there's like 20 awards that we give out in college football every year i mean of course you've got your heisman you've got your coach of the year you've got your assistant coach of the year uh etc etc but like we have an award in college football for every

position and more so than that they have badass names like we get give out the Balitnikov to the best receiver. We give out the Benaric to the best defender. We give out the Davey O'Brien to the best quarterback, the Mackey to the best tied in. My favorite, did you know, there is an award called the Joe Moore Award that goes to the best offense online. It's 800 pounds. It's literally, it's a whole trophy case unto itself. I fully support this. You don't, like, this requires no convincing for me whatsoever. As somebody who loves to argue about this shit, I want more of these. The one, the hill that I will die on, I have brought this up, I think, in some capacity every single year for the last 10 years. The NFL should have a Heisman-like award

that is given to the most outstanding player. Every single year, we should take a step back and we should say, who was the best player in the NFL? Because we know that's not the MVP anymore. The MVP goes to the best quarterback, and often it goes to the quarterback of the best team. That is what happens with the MVP now, and that's fine. If quarterbacks are the most valuable players, and if value is going to be part of it, then it should go to the quarterbacks. But if we had an award that was designed for the most outstanding player in the league, could you imagine in 2012, like the arguments between whether Adrian Peterson or JJ Watt should be the NFL Heisman? I would. Oh, yeah. love that. Like, think about how good that would be. Aaron Donald would have won it multiple

different times. Like, the fact that there was no way to acknowledge in any official capacity ever that Aaron Donald was the best player in the NFL at any given time. That's nonsense. We should absolutely have that. I think we should have it for every major position. And, like, we'll still do all pros. So, you know, your fave will get to be an all pro. But, like, imagine how much fun it would be to have a NFL version of the Bolitnikoff where the best receiver gets to get up, we could call it, and we could name it after NFL Legends.

Like it could be the Moss or the Rice Award. I think the Jerry Rice Award should be the overall most outstanding player. I think the NFL Heisman should be named after Jerry Rice. But you didn't have to Randy Moss, whatever. Fine. Imagine with like with the amount of, like with the, with the amount that DBs argue and take pride.

Oh, it'd be incredible. Can you imagine like stumping for the Charles Woodson defensive back of the year award? And and again, the NFL loves spectacle. Just add it to NFL honors. It's already this huge award show. Just give out more awards because as it is right now, we're only given out like eight of the things. Yeah, you think we can lose the musical numbers or whatever it is.

They're filling time with on the NFL. I've never watched the NFL honor show about the fully admit that right now. I watched it one. I went one year and saw it. And I mean, it's cool. And it's like, kudos to the NFL. Because again, they have mastered turning things. Like the, it used to be a press release.

And now it's a three hour award show that people watch. But imagine if we actually gave out more hardware and then everybody would have, every fan would have a reason to get invested. Because even if you're a fan of a terrible team, your terrible team probably has a great player. And it would mean a lot to you if he could win the most. outstanding linebacker award or whatever it is. And then that could factor into your Hall of Fame credentials. Like we would have even more to help us build these cases for great players.

And I just think it's kind of weird that it hasn't happened yet. I fully support this. You're going to hear no arguments from me whatsoever. Let's get this done. All right. David Hellman, always great to chat with you, sir. Please tell people where they can listen to read, pay attention to the things that you're doing right now.

Season two of the NFL on Fox podcast is. is back at the beginning of August. So really excited about that. A lot of fun stuff in store there. Can find me, Fox Sports.com, all my writing. FS1.

I do appear on speak on FS1 from time to time. Follow me on Twitter if you want to David Hellman underscore. Yeah, man, we're back in the saddle for another season and I'm so excited about it. Thanks for having me. Of course, buddy, anytime. We'll talk to you soon.

All right, guys. That's all we got. Thank you so much to Dave Helman. always great to chat with him. We always have a really good time. We will be back tomorrow. If you have not listened to the conversation that I had with Sean McVey on the feed earlier this week, it was a cool show. Sean really did a generous job of kind of letting us in. And he opened up about a ton of different subjects that if you have not listened to the podcast, I would recommend it. I think that no matter who you are in your work life and your personal life, if you're a

football nerd. I hope there's something for everybody in that discussion. So if you haven't listened to that show, for whatever reason, please check it out. We'll be back tomorrow. And then starting next week, we got some fun news ahead. I'm really excited to share it with you guys about what the shape of the show is going to look like this year and the people that we're going to have on and how this is all going to go. And I'm as excited about it as ever. And I hope that you guys are as well. I really appreciate you guys carving out the time and spending it with us. And I'm looking forward to another season. I hope you guys are too.

So excited to continue my training camp travels, excited to continue talking to you guys. For now, though, that's all we got. We'll talk to you tomorrow. This was the Athletic Football Show.